1 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:06,359 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am asha this week dictators, democrats, 2 00:00:06,480 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 1: and disasters. The time we have to take action on 3 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:23,239 Speaker 1: climate change is in short supply. Emissions of greenhouse gases 4 00:00:23,280 --> 00:00:26,160 Speaker 1: need to peak within the next three years. If we're 5 00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: to stay off, we have until with a massive warning. 6 00:00:32,840 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 1: It is now or never, and the lack of time 7 00:00:36,120 --> 00:00:40,080 Speaker 1: raises the question our democracies up to the challenge. Do 8 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: we have the time to let the natural course of 9 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:46,200 Speaker 1: consensus building and debate play out, or should governments around 10 00:00:46,200 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: the world suspend the normal course of democracy in favor 11 00:00:49,280 --> 00:00:53,080 Speaker 1: of climate action? Is an eco authoritarian model the way 12 00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,160 Speaker 1: to go. In my travels to China, for all the 13 00:00:56,200 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 1: country's many problems, it was stunning to see how much 14 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:03,000 Speaker 1: progress has made on green technologies. It has a plan 15 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:06,440 Speaker 1: to reach zero emissions within decades, and the country typically 16 00:01:06,480 --> 00:01:10,520 Speaker 1: delivers on its promises. That's made many in the environmental 17 00:01:10,560 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 1: movement question whether more of us should be taking the 18 00:01:13,840 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: authoritarian route to zero. I wanted to put these questions 19 00:01:17,720 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 1: to Dan Fiorina, the author of Canned Democracy Handled Climate Change, 20 00:01:22,000 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 1: one of my favorite books on the subject. He's also 21 00:01:25,240 --> 00:01:29,160 Speaker 1: the director for the Center for Environmental Policy at American University. 22 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:33,080 Speaker 1: Dan comes down strongly in favor of democracy, but readily 23 00:01:33,120 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 1: admits that no government is doing enough to meet the 24 00:01:35,959 --> 00:01:40,000 Speaker 1: challenges of climate change, and he worries that if left unchecked, 25 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:44,000 Speaker 1: democracies themselves may fall victim to the stresses and strains 26 00:01:44,080 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 1: caused by our warming planet. A final note before we begin. 27 00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:51,440 Speaker 1: We open our conversation talking about the scientist James Lovelock, 28 00:01:51,720 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: who was still alive at the time of recording, which 29 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 1: sadly passed away at the age of one hundred and three. 30 00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:05,880 Speaker 1: Dan Fiorino, Welcome to Zero. It's great to be here. 31 00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:08,720 Speaker 1: Thanks for having me. You open your book with a 32 00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:12,160 Speaker 1: quote from the scientist James Lovelock, the inventor of the 33 00:02:12,240 --> 00:02:16,520 Speaker 1: gaia hypothesis, and it reads, even the best democracies agree 34 00:02:16,639 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: that when a major war approaches, democracy must be put 35 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,960 Speaker 1: on hold for the time being. I have a feeling 36 00:02:23,120 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: that climate change might be an issue as serious as war, 37 00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,720 Speaker 1: and it may be necessary to put democracy on hold. 38 00:02:31,200 --> 00:02:34,320 Speaker 1: Do you agree? No, I don't agree. And my point 39 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 1: in writing that book was that democracy has many many advantages, 40 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:44,800 Speaker 1: and we don't necessarily know that suspending democratic institutions and 41 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: processes would improve our ability to deal with the causes 42 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,079 Speaker 1: and the impacts of climate change, And so I thought 43 00:02:52,120 --> 00:02:56,519 Speaker 1: it was important to address statements like that climate change 44 00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:00,960 Speaker 1: is obviously a very substantial challenge to modern governments. But 45 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,880 Speaker 1: I don't share the view that we need to suspend 46 00:03:05,200 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 1: democratic norms, institutions, and processes to be able to deal 47 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 1: with it. And what was it about this quote from 48 00:03:12,440 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 1: James Lovelock that made you want to open your book 49 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 1: with it. Well, the first reason is that it is, 50 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,240 Speaker 1: to me a very stark statement of the lack of 51 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 1: confidence in democratic systems to be able to deal with 52 00:03:25,440 --> 00:03:29,480 Speaker 1: a fundamental challenge like climate change. The second reason I 53 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:35,160 Speaker 1: cited that quotation is that James Lovelock is a leading environmentalist, 54 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:40,840 Speaker 1: a leading scientist, and someone who obviously cares and has 55 00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: made many, many contributions to our thinking and our ability 56 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 1: to deal with environmental issues. So I thought the quote 57 00:03:49,000 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: made the point very effectively, a point which I then 58 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:55,280 Speaker 1: set out to refute. Those were the reasons that I 59 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:57,960 Speaker 1: opened with that quote. I want you to entertain the 60 00:03:58,000 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 1: opposite view for a moment. Why are people advocating for it? Well, 61 00:04:02,640 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: the argument is that more top down centralized governments relatively 62 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:14,960 Speaker 1: more authoritarian systems, that they are able to overcome entrenched interests, 63 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:19,719 Speaker 1: they are able to force hard choices on populations that 64 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 1: may not appreciate the gravity or the complexity of the 65 00:04:24,080 --> 00:04:29,360 Speaker 1: climate challenge, and that only by forcing through these tough 66 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:33,360 Speaker 1: decisions can the necessary changes be made. That's a very 67 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:37,599 Speaker 1: dangerous set of assumptions and frankly not really borne out 68 00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 1: by experience or history. Are the research tells us that 69 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:47,600 Speaker 1: authoritarian systems aren't necessarily better and maybe even be less 70 00:04:47,600 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 1: effective in dealing with the causes of climate change. Let's 71 00:04:51,400 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: walk through those limitations. You know, what do you see 72 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:57,960 Speaker 1: as the main flaws in the argument in favor of 73 00:04:58,040 --> 00:05:01,000 Speaker 1: a non democratic approach to actling climate I think the 74 00:05:01,080 --> 00:05:04,800 Speaker 1: main flaws are, first of all, that highly centralized, non 75 00:05:04,839 --> 00:05:09,640 Speaker 1: democratic government and leadership would be more inclined to pursue 76 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:14,919 Speaker 1: both the mitigation and adaptation challenges of climate change. There's 77 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:17,919 Speaker 1: really not a great deal of evidence. People often point 78 00:05:17,960 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 1: to China, which has made some progress in dealing with 79 00:05:22,680 --> 00:05:26,040 Speaker 1: climate change, although to some degree, I think a lot 80 00:05:26,040 --> 00:05:29,320 Speaker 1: of that was motivated by a desire to reduce levels 81 00:05:29,320 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 1: of harmful air pollution. So I'm not saying that authoritarian 82 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:37,520 Speaker 1: governments are necessarily ineffective. But I think we have very 83 00:05:37,520 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: little evidence that non democratic systems and leaders can be 84 00:05:42,240 --> 00:05:44,920 Speaker 1: any more effective, and in fact, I think a lot 85 00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 1: of experience and research tells us they're probably less effective. 86 00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: If that's the case, let's then turn to democracies and 87 00:05:52,440 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 1: look at what the benefits of a democratic approach to 88 00:05:55,080 --> 00:05:58,600 Speaker 1: tackling climate change really are well. The overall argument is 89 00:05:58,640 --> 00:06:03,040 Speaker 1: that democratic systs are more adaptable, they are less corrupt, 90 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:08,240 Speaker 1: and actually lower levels of corruption in democratic societies may 91 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: be an important cause of their relative ability to deal 92 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:16,640 Speaker 1: with not only climate issues but a range of environmental, economic, 93 00:06:16,800 --> 00:06:21,440 Speaker 1: and social issues. Democracies achieve better levels of economic growth, 94 00:06:21,680 --> 00:06:26,520 Speaker 1: they provide better benefits for their citizens, obviously much better 95 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: record on rights and individual freedoms. The argument, though, against 96 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:35,920 Speaker 1: democratic systems is that they're slow to change that. For example, 97 00:06:36,040 --> 00:06:39,280 Speaker 1: when you have an established fossil fuel industry, that's very 98 00:06:39,320 --> 00:06:42,600 Speaker 1: hard in a democratic system to overcome those kinds of 99 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,240 Speaker 1: entrenched interests, and the record shows that indeed that is 100 00:06:46,360 --> 00:06:49,960 Speaker 1: very difficult. Whether it's United States or Canada or Australia 101 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:53,560 Speaker 1: which relies very heavily on coal x sports that is 102 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,920 Speaker 1: a major challenge, and generally societies that have not historically 103 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,120 Speaker 1: relied on fossil fuels tend to have a better record 104 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:03,720 Speaker 1: at dealing with the cause of climate change. So I 105 00:07:03,760 --> 00:07:07,279 Speaker 1: think the argument is that democratic systems can overcome those 106 00:07:07,440 --> 00:07:12,560 Speaker 1: entrenched interests. They can't convince people that changes in lifestyle 107 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,840 Speaker 1: and energy systems and food systems and so on are needed, 108 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 1: and thus have a much more difficult time making the 109 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: required changes. And to some extent, the corruption point is 110 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:29,200 Speaker 1: also that democracies are able to hold governments to account. Typically, 111 00:07:29,240 --> 00:07:31,920 Speaker 1: if you have a representative system and you have a 112 00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 1: way to make your voicehood, if you see corruption, you'd 113 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:39,320 Speaker 1: see people vote the regime out of vote the government outright. Yeah, 114 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 1: I think that identifies the benefits of democratic systems is 115 00:07:43,400 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: that there is a more open flow of information, There 116 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:51,040 Speaker 1: are checks on the exercise of political power. You have 117 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:56,000 Speaker 1: a free press that can actively highlight issues and problems. 118 00:07:56,440 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 1: So I think that generally accounts for the lower levels 119 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:03,640 Speaker 1: of corruption democratic societies, And we certainly have lots of 120 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:06,640 Speaker 1: evidence that where there are high levels of corruption that 121 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: in general, government policy is going to be far less effective. 122 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:14,160 Speaker 1: So I think that corruption aspect is a very important 123 00:08:14,160 --> 00:08:18,520 Speaker 1: part of the superiority of democratic regimes in dealing with 124 00:08:19,040 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 1: a range of complex issues, and it not only climate 125 00:08:22,320 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: change but others as well. So I'm going to push 126 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:28,160 Speaker 1: you back a little bit here, okay, Because by twenty twenty, 127 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,600 Speaker 1: not a single democracy had sufficiently lowered their emissions to 128 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:34,360 Speaker 1: meet the targets set in the Paris Agreement. And if 129 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:37,000 Speaker 1: we take that data point, one can conclude the democracies 130 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:40,720 Speaker 1: have so far largely failed in really dealing with climate change. 131 00:08:41,040 --> 00:08:43,640 Speaker 1: So you know, why don't democracy seem to be able 132 00:08:43,679 --> 00:08:46,840 Speaker 1: to take the requisite action? Yeah, well, I would say 133 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: no government has really succeeded in taking the requisite action. 134 00:08:51,640 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: Climate change really calls for some very transformational changes, and 135 00:08:55,960 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: these are very difficult to achieve in any system. So yes, 136 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,319 Speaker 1: it is fair to say no nation has really stepped 137 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: up to meeting the climate challenge. In general, the European Union, 138 00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:13,440 Speaker 1: I would say, is better than many other countries, certainly 139 00:09:13,520 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 1: better than the United States in terms of meeting the 140 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:19,880 Speaker 1: climate challenge. The United Kingdom actually has been making some 141 00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:26,080 Speaker 1: substantial progress, but no country is changing energy systems and 142 00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 1: some of these other systems we've talked about at the 143 00:09:29,200 --> 00:09:32,880 Speaker 1: pace that is needed to get us where we need 144 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:37,840 Speaker 1: to be by mid centuries. No government is currently acting 145 00:09:37,920 --> 00:09:41,200 Speaker 1: fast enough on climate change, but the top performers still 146 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:45,360 Speaker 1: tend to be democracies. The Climate Change Performance Index ranks 147 00:09:45,360 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 1: countries on how well they're tackling emissions, and out of 148 00:09:48,720 --> 00:09:51,960 Speaker 1: the top thirty countries on that list, the vast majority 149 00:09:52,200 --> 00:09:57,200 Speaker 1: are democracies. Denmark is fourth, Sweden fifth, the UK seventh. 150 00:09:58,000 --> 00:10:00,760 Speaker 1: No countries filled the top three position on the list, 151 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 1: symbolizing the lack of progress. There are also important democracies 152 00:10:05,600 --> 00:10:08,440 Speaker 1: that feature much further down that list, some of the 153 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:12,080 Speaker 1: world's biggest emitters. Out of the sixty four countries ranked, 154 00:10:12,320 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: the US ranks fifty five, Australia fifty nine, and Canada 155 00:10:17,000 --> 00:10:20,840 Speaker 1: sixty one. China is placed above all of them at 156 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 1: thirty eight. So I wanted to put a very specific 157 00:10:24,040 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 1: question to Dan based on this data, is the case 158 00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:30,360 Speaker 1: against democracies based on the actions of democracies as a 159 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:35,280 Speaker 1: whole or the failures of a conspicuous few. Many of 160 00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:39,440 Speaker 1: the critics of the ability of democracies to deal with 161 00:10:39,760 --> 00:10:43,559 Speaker 1: climate change point to the United States. Certainly their fair 162 00:10:43,760 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: criticisms to be made there, Australia, Canada, which is perhaps 163 00:10:50,120 --> 00:10:53,960 Speaker 1: moving in a more progressive direction. I think it is 164 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:57,920 Speaker 1: fair to say that there are certain outliers in terms 165 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 1: of climate performance. We look at the European Union, particularly 166 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:05,679 Speaker 1: the northern European countries, or even France, which for reasons 167 00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:10,440 Speaker 1: really unrelated to climate change, invested heavily in nuclear electricity 168 00:11:10,520 --> 00:11:14,840 Speaker 1: generation in nineteen seventies, nineteen eighties and so on, we 169 00:11:14,920 --> 00:11:17,320 Speaker 1: see a lot more progress. So I think that is 170 00:11:17,360 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: an excellent point that certain democracies have not done well, 171 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:26,760 Speaker 1: and they tend to fuel this perception that democracies are 172 00:11:26,760 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 1: incapable of meeting the climate challenge. One of the things 173 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:34,679 Speaker 1: that anchors most people's attraction to authoritarianism is what China 174 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 1: has done, because China has become this leader in green technology. Yes, 175 00:11:39,280 --> 00:11:42,679 Speaker 1: it is the biggest amateur today, but its emissions are plateaued, 176 00:11:43,040 --> 00:11:45,760 Speaker 1: and it has this ability to be able to build 177 00:11:45,840 --> 00:11:49,480 Speaker 1: solar and wind and batteries at scales that no other 178 00:11:49,520 --> 00:11:54,319 Speaker 1: country has been able to. Is the pro authoritarian argument 179 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,840 Speaker 1: mostly coming from people looking at China, because if you 180 00:11:57,840 --> 00:12:01,160 Speaker 1: look at other authoritarian regimes, it's very hard to make 181 00:12:01,200 --> 00:12:03,720 Speaker 1: the case for them. It is harder to make the 182 00:12:03,760 --> 00:12:07,680 Speaker 1: case with other authoritarian regimes. Certainly in the Chinese system, 183 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 1: once the regime decides to move in a certain direction, 184 00:12:12,360 --> 00:12:16,200 Speaker 1: that is more likely to happen than in democracies, where 185 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: you need to build consensus and build agreement and work 186 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 1: through institutions and deliver change in those kinds of ways. 187 00:12:23,720 --> 00:12:28,280 Speaker 1: I think China is a mixed case. Certainly, we've seen 188 00:12:28,400 --> 00:12:32,080 Speaker 1: some cleaning up of their energy system, some reductions in 189 00:12:32,600 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: emissions of various kinds. The catches with such a large 190 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:40,200 Speaker 1: population and with their very high economic growth rates that 191 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:45,160 Speaker 1: there's just a tremendous demand for energy, and they still 192 00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,160 Speaker 1: rely very heavily on coal. So I think it's still early. 193 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: The results aren't quite in on where China will be 194 00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 1: in the longer term. But certainly I agree with your 195 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:03,480 Speaker 1: assessment that the Chinese experience and the potential for change 196 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:07,160 Speaker 1: in China has fueled a lot of the criticisms of 197 00:13:07,240 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 1: democratic systems. Right. There's also this middle ground between democracies 198 00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: and authoritarian regimes. Emerging democracies such as Bolivia, Malaysia, and 199 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:22,160 Speaker 1: Zambia are not yet considered full democracies right, but they 200 00:13:22,160 --> 00:13:25,319 Speaker 1: are moving that direction. Use site studies in the book 201 00:13:25,400 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: that show established democracies are the best at tackling emissions. 202 00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 1: Then come authoritarian regimes, and then these emerging democracies, they 203 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 1: are the least effective when it comes to dealing with 204 00:13:37,360 --> 00:13:41,360 Speaker 1: climate change. If climate is the overwriting concern, which you 205 00:13:41,480 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 1: argue it is, then should we let emerging democracies fall 206 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: back into authoritarianism or do we have the time to 207 00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 1: let them become mature democracies and then act on climate change. 208 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:59,640 Speaker 1: You're citing some research that concludes that transitional democracies Latin 209 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:03,520 Speaker 1: America or Eastern Europe, we'd have many examples, are still 210 00:14:03,559 --> 00:14:07,640 Speaker 1: sort of working to establish effective governments, to build the 211 00:14:07,720 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 1: right sort of political cultures to be able to deal 212 00:14:11,200 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 1: with complicated issues. I don't necessarily think that authoritarian systems 213 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: are going to be better than those transitional democracies, although 214 00:14:20,400 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 1: obviously that's a very mixed bag. And bear in mind 215 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: that climate change is only one of many many issues 216 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:31,920 Speaker 1: facing governments in the modern world. It is an overriding issue, 217 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: to be sure, but health and safety and economic security 218 00:14:37,040 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: and all those kinds of issues are things that governments 219 00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:42,360 Speaker 1: have to deal with. So I think again, it would 220 00:14:42,360 --> 00:14:45,840 Speaker 1: be a very risky proposition to say that, well, we 221 00:14:46,160 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: should let them go evolve toward authoritarianism because that'll make 222 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:53,520 Speaker 1: them better at dealing with climate change. A commitment to 223 00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:56,480 Speaker 1: democracy is the best way to deal with issues like 224 00:14:56,560 --> 00:15:00,840 Speaker 1: climate change. And one factor is that the ocracies tend 225 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,240 Speaker 1: to not go to war with each other. And if 226 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 1: there's anything that's going to get in the way of 227 00:15:05,560 --> 00:15:10,480 Speaker 1: dealing with climate action, its instability and conflict around the world. 228 00:15:10,800 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: Here's the number one flaw in the pro authoritarian argument, 229 00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:18,640 Speaker 1: that the assume to be a benign dictator. Yes, I 230 00:15:18,680 --> 00:15:22,400 Speaker 1: think if you read some of the work critical of democracies, 231 00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:26,640 Speaker 1: this assumption that I call in the book ecological autocracy, 232 00:15:26,720 --> 00:15:30,440 Speaker 1: that ecological autocrats will emerge and they will place concern 233 00:15:30,520 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 1: over the environment and natural resources and climate mitigation and 234 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:40,480 Speaker 1: climate adaptation, that they will put those at the top 235 00:15:40,520 --> 00:15:45,760 Speaker 1: of the agenda. And we really don't have any actual 236 00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:49,680 Speaker 1: evidence of that. So I think there's this assumption of 237 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:53,640 Speaker 1: a sort of ideal authoritarian system that in fact doesn't 238 00:15:53,680 --> 00:15:59,280 Speaker 1: really exist. Generally, autheraitarian systems have been much harder on 239 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:03,320 Speaker 1: the environment then democratic systems, so I think that is 240 00:16:03,320 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 1: a bit of a myth. The title of Dan's book, 241 00:16:10,520 --> 00:16:14,320 Speaker 1: Can Democracy Handle Climate change can be interpreted in two ways. 242 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 1: Our democracy is able to deliver action on climate change? 243 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:21,920 Speaker 1: And will democracy survive the impacts of a warming world 244 00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:25,680 Speaker 1: after the break? I asked Dan which he's more concerned with. 245 00:16:35,400 --> 00:16:37,560 Speaker 1: I want to come back to the title of your book, 246 00:16:37,640 --> 00:16:41,720 Speaker 1: which is called Can Democracy Handle Climate Change? The two 247 00:16:41,800 --> 00:16:44,720 Speaker 1: sides to the word handle. One is active and one 248 00:16:44,800 --> 00:16:49,800 Speaker 1: is reactive. Are you more concerned with the farmer or 249 00:16:49,800 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 1: the latter, that democracies will fail to deal with climate 250 00:16:53,480 --> 00:16:57,640 Speaker 1: change actively, or that democracies will fail as a victim 251 00:16:57,720 --> 00:17:00,800 Speaker 1: to climate change. I think I'm concerned about both, but 252 00:17:00,840 --> 00:17:04,959 Speaker 1: I'm far more concerned about the first. Democracies tend to 253 00:17:05,000 --> 00:17:09,560 Speaker 1: react when there is an imminent threat. We may see 254 00:17:09,960 --> 00:17:15,000 Speaker 1: with sea level rise, with extreme heat, all these impacts 255 00:17:15,000 --> 00:17:20,080 Speaker 1: of climate change, Governments will have to respond. What I 256 00:17:20,160 --> 00:17:22,840 Speaker 1: worry about is that by the time we respond to 257 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:26,840 Speaker 1: the immediate threats, much of the damage will already be done. 258 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 1: That's the big challenge to me of climate change is 259 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:35,600 Speaker 1: that it requires us to think in longer time frames, 260 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:40,080 Speaker 1: and governments and societies generally are not all that good 261 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,720 Speaker 1: thinking in longer time frames. We tend to respond to 262 00:17:43,800 --> 00:17:47,040 Speaker 1: short term threats, so yes, I'm much more concerned about 263 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 1: our ability to anticipate and plan and take measures to 264 00:17:51,280 --> 00:17:54,480 Speaker 1: avoid longer term problems. Would it be fair to say 265 00:17:54,480 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: that the longer we wait to act on climate change, 266 00:17:57,560 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: the more likely we are to see democracy has become 267 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:07,600 Speaker 1: destabilized because of climate impacts. I think that is a concern, certainly, 268 00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,320 Speaker 1: something that I and many other people working at environmental 269 00:18:11,320 --> 00:18:14,919 Speaker 1: issues are concerned about. So one side of the picture 270 00:18:15,240 --> 00:18:19,960 Speaker 1: is how effectively governments anticipate and plan for and take 271 00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 1: action to mitigate the causes of climate change. The other 272 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:28,920 Speaker 1: part of the question is what effects will the impacts 273 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 1: of a changing climate have on democratic systems. This is 274 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:35,520 Speaker 1: an area where I think we all should be very worried. 275 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,560 Speaker 1: If you look at some of the likely impacts, we 276 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,399 Speaker 1: could have climate refugees, We could have lots of movement 277 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:46,480 Speaker 1: of populations from some areas to other areas. Yeah, let 278 00:18:46,480 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 1: me throw some numbers at you. Yeah. Since two thousand 279 00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:51,520 Speaker 1: and eight, an average of twenty one point five million 280 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 1: people per year have been forcibly displaced by weather related events. 281 00:18:56,680 --> 00:18:59,639 Speaker 1: By some estimates, that number is likely to rise to 282 00:18:59,800 --> 00:19:04,760 Speaker 1: one point two billion by twenty fifty. Cumulatively, that is 283 00:19:04,800 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: a stunning increase, and that can have all sorts of 284 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:13,760 Speaker 1: downstream impacts when food on conflicts on changing the politics 285 00:19:13,800 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: of the countries that they end up in, and there 286 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: will be economic decline. I mean that kind of threat 287 00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,880 Speaker 1: which for a long time people were thinking was alarmism. 288 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:26,359 Speaker 1: People can now start to see that that might become real. Yes, 289 00:19:26,440 --> 00:19:30,360 Speaker 1: that absolutely as a worry. So as we have movement 290 00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:35,720 Speaker 1: of populations, whether it's in European Union or the southern 291 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: border of the United States, that has a couple of effects. One, 292 00:19:39,960 --> 00:19:43,439 Speaker 1: it can be destabilizing both in the places where people 293 00:19:43,720 --> 00:19:48,520 Speaker 1: are trying to leave and places where they're they're going, 294 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:55,240 Speaker 1: And instability always makes concentrated, deliberate policy change difficult. Also, 295 00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:59,000 Speaker 1: I'm concerned about the impact that this could have on 296 00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:05,119 Speaker 1: sort of fueling interest and demands for right wing populist governments, which, 297 00:20:05,240 --> 00:20:09,080 Speaker 1: for reasons I've mentioned, tend to be not good, if 298 00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:15,440 Speaker 1: not actively hostile to climate mitigation to effective government in general. 299 00:20:15,920 --> 00:20:21,879 Speaker 1: A very serious long term concern is that conflict and instability, 300 00:20:22,400 --> 00:20:26,360 Speaker 1: all these different kinds of impacts of climate change can 301 00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:32,119 Speaker 1: actually undermine the effectiveness of democratic systems and governments in 302 00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:36,399 Speaker 1: general to deal with complex issues like climate change, and 303 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,400 Speaker 1: so what do we need to do then to strengthen 304 00:20:39,480 --> 00:20:43,800 Speaker 1: democracies as they exist right now against the potential disruption 305 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:47,360 Speaker 1: that is coming. It's not just about cutting emissions, is it. Well, 306 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 1: we certainly need to cut emissions, and we need to 307 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:55,640 Speaker 1: actually prepare for what is needed to adapt to climate change. 308 00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: We have to do more than just respond when the 309 00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 1: problems become apparent. We have to build in resilience. One 310 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:04,480 Speaker 1: of my students use the term we have to climate 311 00:21:04,520 --> 00:21:08,760 Speaker 1: proof society. We can work on building better democracies that 312 00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:12,760 Speaker 1: are more responsive. We can work on communicating to people 313 00:21:13,119 --> 00:21:16,359 Speaker 1: what this problem is and why it is so important. 314 00:21:16,680 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 1: We can frame issues in a way so that climate 315 00:21:19,600 --> 00:21:21,920 Speaker 1: change is one way of looking at it, but another 316 00:21:21,960 --> 00:21:25,160 Speaker 1: way of looking at this is, well, here's an opportunity 317 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 1: for clean energy systems, where there is less air pollution, 318 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:33,600 Speaker 1: where there's technology innovation, and opportunities for exporting products around 319 00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:38,120 Speaker 1: the world. We know that renewable energy and energy efficiency 320 00:21:38,560 --> 00:21:43,600 Speaker 1: generate more employment, more jobs per unit of investment, so 321 00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,959 Speaker 1: we to make that case. So I think we have 322 00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:51,360 Speaker 1: to really persuade people that there are a number of reasons, 323 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:55,320 Speaker 1: not only the climate reason to make these kinds of transitions, 324 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:58,720 Speaker 1: and then we need to build more accountable, more effective 325 00:21:58,960 --> 00:22:03,160 Speaker 1: governments that are able to make the necessary decisions and 326 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,359 Speaker 1: carry out these kinds of changes. And that's not going 327 00:22:06,400 --> 00:22:09,400 Speaker 1: to be easy to do, but you know, that's what 328 00:22:09,440 --> 00:22:12,359 Speaker 1: we ultimately have to do. And it's certainly something that 329 00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,200 Speaker 1: the IPCC reports, if you read them towards the end, 330 00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:18,760 Speaker 1: that's what they're saying. Many of the IPCC reports, after 331 00:22:18,800 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 1: they've laid out the impact and after they've laid out 332 00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:23,800 Speaker 1: what are the mitigation steps that we need to take, 333 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:27,479 Speaker 1: they go into this place where they are creating essentially 334 00:22:27,520 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: a society that would be more democratic, more free, and 335 00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,760 Speaker 1: more enabling of the human potential, because all those things 336 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:40,080 Speaker 1: also help fight climate change. Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, climate 337 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:46,120 Speaker 1: change is a relatively new and novel challenge, but throughout history, 338 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:51,200 Speaker 1: we wanted good, effective governments that represent people's wishes, that 339 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:56,920 Speaker 1: guarantee human rights, that maximize opportunities for people. So I've 340 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 1: always thought that democratic systems were the best way to 341 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,800 Speaker 1: do that. So it's not just climate change, it is 342 00:23:03,840 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 1: generally it's just a better way of having government. There's 343 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 1: the famous Winston Churchill quote where he says that democracy 344 00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: is the worst form of government pause except for all 345 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:19,359 Speaker 1: the others that have been tried from time to time, 346 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 1: and I think that still holds true. Climate change is 347 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: going to place a huge strain on democracies around the world, 348 00:23:30,200 --> 00:23:34,280 Speaker 1: but this strain won't be felt by democracies alone. Authoritarian 349 00:23:34,320 --> 00:23:37,639 Speaker 1: governments will also feel the destabilizing effects of things like 350 00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: mass migration, more extreme weather events, shortages of food, and 351 00:23:42,440 --> 00:23:46,560 Speaker 1: will face similar pressures to respond. So I asked Dan 352 00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:50,480 Speaker 1: about this, what's going to happen to authoritarian regimes as 353 00:23:50,520 --> 00:23:54,560 Speaker 1: they face up to the realities of climate change. It 354 00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:58,199 Speaker 1: could be destabilizing in those countries as well. First of all, 355 00:23:58,520 --> 00:24:03,760 Speaker 1: we certainly i'd hope that authoritarian governments and what are 356 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:08,639 Speaker 1: called hybrid systems that share many characteristics of authoritarian governments, 357 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:10,879 Speaker 1: if they're going to be able to deal with the 358 00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:14,760 Speaker 1: causes and the impacts of climate change. Because about half 359 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:18,840 Speaker 1: of global emissions come from those countries, these factors could 360 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:22,239 Speaker 1: be destabilizing in those countries as well. And you know, 361 00:24:22,240 --> 00:24:27,520 Speaker 1: whether that leads to them moving more toward democratic transitions 362 00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:32,280 Speaker 1: or sort of pushes them deeper into authoritarianism is an 363 00:24:32,280 --> 00:24:34,919 Speaker 1: open question and will probably vary a lot depending on 364 00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:36,760 Speaker 1: the country and the part of the world. You know, 365 00:24:36,800 --> 00:24:39,879 Speaker 1: I would say whatever the form of government, political and 366 00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:45,080 Speaker 1: economic instability undermines the capacity to deal with complex policy 367 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,119 Speaker 1: problems like climate change. Right, just going back to the 368 00:24:48,160 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 1: point that you were making about authoritarian regimes, if we 369 00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:54,919 Speaker 1: take the example of the Arab Spring, partly cause because 370 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:58,280 Speaker 1: of climate change and the rising food prices, you know, 371 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,720 Speaker 1: people who are hungry will revolt whether it's a democracy 372 00:25:03,000 --> 00:25:05,719 Speaker 1: or an authority in regime. And if you look at 373 00:25:05,760 --> 00:25:08,439 Speaker 1: what's happened since the Arab Spring, now it's been more 374 00:25:08,440 --> 00:25:13,200 Speaker 1: than a decade, it hasn't really gone the way of democracies. Yeah, 375 00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:16,560 Speaker 1: I think that was a disappointment. I just read something 376 00:25:16,600 --> 00:25:20,960 Speaker 1: recently about Tunisia, where a lot of the movement certainly 377 00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:25,440 Speaker 1: associated with the Arab Spring occurred and now it's not 378 00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,760 Speaker 1: working that well. And rising food prices, that's another great 379 00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:32,879 Speaker 1: example of sort of instability that could come from a 380 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,240 Speaker 1: change in climate. And it's just it's so hard to 381 00:25:35,280 --> 00:25:40,160 Speaker 1: predict generally, but the trend in recent years has been 382 00:25:40,600 --> 00:25:44,840 Speaker 1: sort of moving away from democracy, and I think that's 383 00:25:44,840 --> 00:25:47,280 Speaker 1: a concern for many of us. And just I mean, 384 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,720 Speaker 1: when I look at what the situation in the world 385 00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:55,080 Speaker 1: today is with Russia attacking Ukraine and Europe really struggling 386 00:25:55,160 --> 00:25:58,919 Speaker 1: with its gas supplies that were coming from Russia. We 387 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,600 Speaker 1: could have very easy seen a backslide on the European 388 00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 1: climate agenda. And certainly there's been some increase in coal 389 00:26:06,600 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 1: in the short term, and there's some approval of gas projects. 390 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,040 Speaker 1: But largely, if we look at the democratic process itself, 391 00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,600 Speaker 1: the EU has been going forward with all its major 392 00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 1: climate targets, and it is now in this process putting 393 00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:26,119 Speaker 1: through legislation while these energy crises and the inflation and 394 00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:30,160 Speaker 1: economic crisis is also playing out. So that speaks very 395 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:33,800 Speaker 1: highly of what democracies can do if there is enough 396 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:38,240 Speaker 1: ways in which representation of what people want filters up 397 00:26:38,320 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 1: to the people in power. I agree. I think certainly 398 00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:47,640 Speaker 1: the invasion of Ukraine has created a number of challenges. 399 00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:52,000 Speaker 1: I think in general, the European Union has maintained a 400 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:57,120 Speaker 1: commitment to clean energy, to wind and solar energy efficiency, 401 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:01,280 Speaker 1: and to electrifying transportation and doing than many other things 402 00:27:01,280 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 1: that are required. Certainly it reinforces the logic and certainly 403 00:27:06,359 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 1: the case for a transition to clean energy, because they 404 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,840 Speaker 1: really need to get off this dependence on Russian gas. 405 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:18,280 Speaker 1: In the short term. It's a big challenge in countries 406 00:27:18,320 --> 00:27:21,160 Speaker 1: like Germany, but part of the problem there is that 407 00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:24,160 Speaker 1: there they shut down in their nuclear industry or they're 408 00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,560 Speaker 1: still wrapping that up, and they've had to increase reliance 409 00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 1: on coal, which has had climate as well as public 410 00:27:31,320 --> 00:27:35,959 Speaker 1: health implications. So these issues are very difficult, but I 411 00:27:36,000 --> 00:27:40,080 Speaker 1: think in the EU that you know, we're seeing a commitment, 412 00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:44,840 Speaker 1: and in many ways this whole experience reinforces the commitment 413 00:27:44,920 --> 00:27:52,200 Speaker 1: to getting off fossil fuels. Thanks for joining, Dan. That 414 00:27:52,400 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 1: was a fantastic conversation. Well great, I enjoyed it. Thanks 415 00:27:56,040 --> 00:28:03,600 Speaker 1: for having me. The temptation to take the authoritarian route 416 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:06,600 Speaker 1: is not new, but as we face up to challenges 417 00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 1: that seem too big to handle, that temptation grows. And 418 00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,919 Speaker 1: as the conversation with Dan showed, the temptation isn't worth 419 00:28:14,000 --> 00:28:17,240 Speaker 1: falling for the countries that are taking the most effective 420 00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:20,119 Speaker 1: action on climate change, as messy as they may be 421 00:28:20,720 --> 00:28:25,240 Speaker 1: our democracies. Thanks for listening to Zero. If you like 422 00:28:25,359 --> 00:28:28,720 Speaker 1: the show, please rate, review, and subscribe. If you've got 423 00:28:28,720 --> 00:28:31,119 Speaker 1: a suggestion for a guest or topic, or something you 424 00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 1: want us to look into get in touch at Zero 425 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 1: Pod at Bloomberg dot Net. Zero's producer is Oscar Boyd 426 00:28:37,680 --> 00:28:41,720 Speaker 1: and senior producer is Christine driscoll. Our theme music is 427 00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:45,840 Speaker 1: by Wonderly many people help make the show a success. 428 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,680 Speaker 1: Each week, I'll tell you about one of them this week. 429 00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:53,160 Speaker 1: Thanks to Chewan Wagner, Bloombergreen's editor in London, an American 430 00:28:53,280 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 1: who's raised the bar for British small talk, I am 431 00:28:56,720 --> 00:29:01,840 Speaker 1: Ashatati back next week