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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amerie Hordernt. Join us each day
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Speaker 2: The tech trade Steady and head of Micron earnings due
Speaker 2: after the close today, shares that more than two hundred
Speaker 2: and fifty percent so far this year. Danives of web
Speaker 2: Bush writing, there is some added nervousness on the important
Speaker 2: memoryship trade. We continue to believe that in this market
Speaker 2: we will continue to go through a number of gut
Speaker 2: check moments. Dan Ives of Webus joins us now from
Speaker 2: what Dank and morning, is this one of those gut
Speaker 2: check moments?
Speaker 3: Is thing you saw it with the cost be down
Speaker 3: ten percent? It look the golden childs of this tech
Speaker 3: boom a lot. It's in Korea in terms of memory chips.
Speaker 3: When you think about what's happening with SK and obviously
Speaker 3: Samsung a SK overtaking Samsung Micron such an important quarter
Speaker 3: relative to what we see in terms of demand ripple,
Speaker 3: What does that mean for Nvidia hyperscalurs? But I continue
Speaker 3: to look our checks in Taiwan, in Korea, no cracks
Speaker 3: in the armor. And that's why I just continue to
Speaker 3: believe third inning one out in terms of the AI game.
Speaker 2: Further downstream, though you're starting to say some pushback to
Speaker 2: price increasingly, does that uppend some of the story.
Speaker 3: Look, I think on the edges that could look right
Speaker 3: now demand the supply called twelve fifteen to one in
Speaker 3: terms of where we are relative to chips. So my
Speaker 3: view is like you still even if you had some
Speaker 3: events to even take some demand off, you don't have
Speaker 3: an equilibrium probably for another year and a half two years,
Speaker 3: which in my view just continues to weave like the
Speaker 3: chip trade is what you continue to own. Look hyper
Speaker 3: scours obviously, right, I know that those are kind of
Speaker 3: the penalty box to some extent, but you will see
Speaker 3: some push against price, but it's our view like over
Speaker 3: time price comes down it's all part what we're seeing
Speaker 3: with tokens.
Speaker 1: Profit margins self kind of a key point here because
Speaker 1: profit margins have been just going to the moon. They've
Speaker 1: been incredibly, incredibly robust at some of these semiconductors, in
Speaker 1: part because they can charge whatever they want, and that's changing.
Speaker 1: You are seeing some competition with Google and with Amazon
Speaker 1: coming into the four. At what point do you start
Speaker 1: to see those margins really compress.
Speaker 3: Look, I think right now, if there's a pressure point,
Speaker 3: you probably don't see that for another nine twelve months.
Speaker 3: But just like you said, like competitions coming across the sport,
Speaker 3: it's an arms race, you know really when you think
Speaker 3: from what Meta is doing, to Amazon, to Microsoft, you
Speaker 3: have software companies and now they'll start to produce chips.
Speaker 3: Look what's happening even on the Intel side with Apple.
Speaker 3: So that will definitely only start to pressurize the situation.
Speaker 3: But in my view, it just continues to be like
Speaker 3: we are still so early relative to the build out,
Speaker 3: and that's also you're going to have these gut check moments,
Speaker 3: you'll have these white knuckle periods, But we continue to
Speaker 3: view these as opportunities where you own the AI winners.
Speaker 1: Well the AI winners though, is the key point here?
Speaker 1: How do you know who they are when they're shifting
Speaker 1: around so quickly? And I say this, I thought one
Speaker 1: of the most interesting stories was when Microsoft came out
Speaker 1: and they said that they were going to be using
Speaker 1: deep seek to lower the cost of deploying some of
Speaker 1: their large language models. I mean, is this indicating that
Speaker 1: cost is now a much higher factor on the list
Speaker 1: for a lot of these big tech companies when it
Speaker 1: comes to who they're going to go with.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think it's obviously technology scale, but cost clearly
Speaker 3: puys in. There's also the models. Over time, the model
Speaker 3: is going to be a cheaper and cheaper. I mean
Speaker 3: the value you actually start to thinking about it's in
Speaker 3: the data, it's in the chips, less about the models.
Speaker 3: Which is why ultimately anthropic open AI, they're so focused
Speaker 3: on enterprise compute, They're focused on all these partnerships because
Speaker 3: essential what's happening. Everyone's building out their own moot for
Speaker 3: their own forward And that's why it's a game of
Speaker 3: musical chairs because eventually someone's left without a chair. Now,
Speaker 3: who are those losers? Look, that's that's our job, that's
Speaker 3: other people's in terms of trying to understand who the
Speaker 3: winners are because you you are starting to see a
Speaker 3: separation in terms of you can't just own the space,
Speaker 3: you can't just own to it speaks to our view
Speaker 3: you have to be selective relative to own the winners,
Speaker 3: making sure that you're not sitting.
Speaker 4: When it comes to enterprise, though, is an anthropic way
Speaker 4: ahead of open AI.
Speaker 3: Look, I think anthropic clearly from a model perspective. I mean,
Speaker 3: it's their world. Everyone's paying rent relative to what they've done.
Speaker 3: But that gap could be narrow quickly. I mean open
Speaker 3: AI is just not going to sit there on a treadmill.
Speaker 3: So open AI they had their bulls eye on their back. Anthropic.
Speaker 3: But you see what's happening with anthropy, Like in terms
Speaker 3: of going after talent from you know, from Google, it's
Speaker 3: this arm because a lot of it is going to
Speaker 3: be it's about the engineers. It's about compute power, and
Speaker 3: that's going to drive more and more debt raises, equity raises,
Speaker 3: and that will be also tests for the market in
Speaker 3: terms of how it handles it.
Speaker 4: I haven't seen you since the President briefed me in
Speaker 4: a few reporters looking into you know, maybe doing something
Speaker 4: public private partnerships in these companies. What do you what
Speaker 4: do you make of that government taking a stake.
Speaker 3: I think it's selectively. It's important if it's done the
Speaker 3: right way, because you could argue if you think Intel
Speaker 3: Intel now I mean they're you know, they're obviously in
Speaker 3: a glorious situation. Look where they were a year and
Speaker 3: a half go. If government doesn't take a stake there,
Speaker 3: which ultimately led to Nvidia and more. Now you look
Speaker 3: at Lip and Intel their core in terms of the
Speaker 3: trade when it comes to quantum I think that's really
Speaker 3: important in terms of some of the government initiatives. And
Speaker 3: I think IBM and Arvin have been kind of front
Speaker 3: and center there because what's happened in China because of
Speaker 3: this arms or.
Speaker 2: Can we finish on two losers? Meta? Microsoft? What do
Speaker 2: I do with those names now? They're in bad markets.
Speaker 2: Everyone's getting all built up on the text story. Some
Speaker 2: of the biggest tech names on the planet. We're in
Speaker 2: a bad market. What you do with those names now?
Speaker 3: I think you have to separate amount of what Microsoft
Speaker 3: I think is the most oversold large cab name. Just
Speaker 3: to my view, have they made stumbles on Copile and
Speaker 3: some other aresa. But in terms of enterprise, their backyard
Speaker 3: as your growth, compute supply issues, I think that's ultimately
Speaker 3: a stock that you know, five five hundred and fifty
Speaker 3: hours stock. So I actually think that continues. Just like
Speaker 3: a year ago, the narrative on Google was so negative.
Speaker 3: Look where we are now from meta Look it's approved
Speaker 3: me like right now, like they're going up Mount ever
Speaker 3: Is without you know, oxygen or whatever. What they're trying
Speaker 3: to do. That will be the prove it moment for
Speaker 3: Zuck as he ultimately tries to go and change the model.
Speaker 3: I think they're going to be successful doing it, but
Speaker 3: they have You can't just spend on cappacks and not showing.
Speaker 4: Results by this.
Speaker 2: More Bloomberg surveillance coming up after this, let's talk about
Speaker 2: the debt dlage facing some PUSHBACKSPACEX selling twenty five billion
Speaker 2: dollars of investment grade bonds and paying Cup to get
Speaker 2: it done. The company's bond mere shuring a twenty thirty
Speaker 2: six pricing at a premium of one point four percentage
Speaker 2: points above treasuries, roughly half a percentage point wider than
Speaker 2: the average spread on other triple B rate of debt
Speaker 2: to discuss A man in the no joining US now
Speaker 2: is JP Morgan's global cohead of IG Financing, John Servedea.
Speaker 2: Good morning, sirs, good to see you.
Speaker 4: Good to see you.
Speaker 2: That's a bit of a gut check, I think for
Speaker 2: investment grade debt. How do you think things went in
Speaker 2: the last twenty four US.
Speaker 5: I think it was another positive signal of the availability
Speaker 5: of capital. If you just take a step back. So
Speaker 5: far this year we've seen six transactions of twenty five
Speaker 5: billion dollars or greater. In all of twenty twenty five
Speaker 5: there were two, So the scale of the capital needs
Speaker 5: continues to grow. Everybody knows that what we're really encouraged
Speaker 5: by is that the market is available and understands that
Speaker 5: and is positioning themselves on the investor side to make
Speaker 5: thoughtful investment decisions to help finance this secular trend that
Speaker 5: is not going anywhere.
Speaker 2: For obvious reasons, we won't spend too much time on
Speaker 2: this one single issue, don't want to get you in
Speaker 2: too much trouble. But further rount along the curve, the
Speaker 2: longer dated maturity, Just how much wider that was trading
Speaker 2: relative to other triple B rated debt, other triple B
Speaker 2: rated pairs. What's the takeaway from that, doubts about the
Speaker 2: credit ratesing agencies? How are you thinking about that the way.
Speaker 5: That we're thinking about the market generally and specifically to
Speaker 5: your question, if you take a big step back, and
Speaker 5: this is no surprise, but credit spreads are at historic tights,
Speaker 5: and so in our view, across the investment grade credit spectrum,
Speaker 5: there should be differentiation based on different ratings and credit profiles.
Speaker 5: So one of the things that I take great comfort
Speaker 5: in is the fact that investors are not blindly buying
Speaker 5: everything right yet. Yes, there's a tremendous amount of capital
Speaker 5: being deployed here, but investors are taking the time to
Speaker 5: do credit work, to understand the stories and to figure
Speaker 5: out relative value in pricing. So to me, a healthy
Speaker 5: sign for the market.
Speaker 1: How nervous are investors getting about the concentration risk that's
Speaker 1: developing given that so much of this debt is tied
Speaker 1: to the AI store.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's something we're clearly watching very closely. We're still
Speaker 5: at a point where there's a lot of capital available
Speaker 5: and investors are figuring out how they want to play
Speaker 5: this theme. Again, as I just said, this is arguably
Speaker 5: the biggest secular theme in any of our professional lifetimes.
Speaker 5: So as an investor, you have to be part of it.
Speaker 5: The question is how, and so I don't think we're
Speaker 5: at a point yet where concentration limits are a huge concern,
Speaker 5: but it is part of the dialogue because you're absolutely right.
Speaker 5: As a proportion of the overall market, it is growing
Speaker 5: and growing very quickly.
Speaker 1: This is the reason why you're seeing a lot of
Speaker 1: companies look to tap every single corner, picking up quarters
Speaker 1: in the couch questions of Canada and the couch of Japan.
Speaker 1: And at what point is this capital coming from other
Speaker 1: bond portfolios versus new pools of capital, whether it be cash,
Speaker 1: whether it be equities, whether it be private equity. I mean,
Speaker 1: how much are you seeing that really unleashed?
Speaker 2: Well?
Speaker 5: As a debt person, the really exciting part of this
Speaker 5: for me has been there have been a lot more
Speaker 5: coins in the couch cushions, right, and so if you
Speaker 5: look across the global markets, we've led the biggest Canadian
Speaker 5: dollar deal ever done, the biggest Euro deal Stirling deal.
Speaker 5: So these other global markets which have always been there
Speaker 5: have grown in relevance in a very material way such
Speaker 5: that the available capital is much larger, which helps the
Speaker 5: overall ecosystem in terms of how we finance these massive
Speaker 5: CAPEX numbers.
Speaker 4: What's most attractive if you're going to do one of
Speaker 4: these offerings outside the United States, out of all of
Speaker 4: these countries you're talking about.
Speaker 5: It is a combination of diversifying funding sources and demonstrating
Speaker 5: that as an issuer you won't be solely reliant on
Speaker 5: the US corporate bond market, which remains the largest, deepest,
Speaker 5: most liquid buy a lot. In certain cases, there's a
Speaker 5: pricing benefit to it. In certain cases, it's just establishing
Speaker 5: a new investor base so that in the future, you
Speaker 5: know you can go back there. So it really is
Speaker 5: again helpful in the context of we're still in the
Speaker 5: earlier mid innings of this.
Speaker 1: Does it worry you when a company doesn't have cash
Speaker 1: flows that really compensate over the debt and over the
Speaker 1: expenses that they have, And yes, I'm talking about SpaceX,
Speaker 1: but there are a number of them that are probably
Speaker 1: going to be coming to market. I'm thinking if this
Speaker 1: is a model, we could see something similar from open
Speaker 1: AI and Anthropic. Once they IPO, then there's going to
Speaker 1: be a follow on debt offering. How important is it
Speaker 1: for people to see the show me the money, the
Speaker 1: sort of the cash flows that can continue in perpetuity
Speaker 1: to overcome some of these huge debt piles.
Speaker 5: Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see as the
Speaker 5: story plays out. And you're absolutely right that the cash
Speaker 5: flow profile of many of these companies is very different
Speaker 5: from what your average investment grade investor is used to seeing.
Speaker 5: The reality is there our investor bases getting so up
Speaker 5: to speed on all of these stories in and around
Speaker 5: the IPO that I think they're prepared to deploy capital
Speaker 5: as needed pretty quickly. Again, it will play out over
Speaker 5: time in terms of cash flow profile or what the
Speaker 5: capex curve looks like relative to servicing the debt.
Speaker 2: We're not there yet, John, You've been in the market
Speaker 2: a long time. How would you frame this moment historically
Speaker 2: if you ever seen anything like this?
Speaker 5: No, this is again to me, this is the biggest
Speaker 5: theme we've seen in a very long time. What's particularly
Speaker 5: exciting for me as well is the level of creativity
Speaker 5: that is required to finance all of this. Right, if
Speaker 5: you go back one year, there was a very predominant
Speaker 5: market narrative that the hyperscalers would finance a lot of
Speaker 5: this through free cash flow from there to several hundred
Speaker 5: billions of dollars of debt issuance around the world, a
Speaker 5: lot of asset level project financing equity issuance in twelve months.
Speaker 5: That's an incredible journey as a capital markets person, and
Speaker 5: so for us, thinking about how to raise this capital
Speaker 5: in the most efficient way requires a lot more creativity,
Speaker 5: a lot more product agnosticism. It's not just if your
Speaker 5: capital need looks like X, then go to this market.
Speaker 2: They're getting creative. And I wonder there's something on your
Speaker 2: dashboard that would trigger concern and I don't think with
Speaker 2: that again, listen to you right now, But what would
Speaker 2: come up on your dashboard that would say, I think
Speaker 2: things againstuphon? When would the red lights star flash.
Speaker 5: In the red lights would start flashing if it felt
Speaker 5: like there was blind euphoria, And again, it does not
Speaker 5: feel that way, whether it's underlying credit work or in
Speaker 5: project financing, where it's looking at the actual contract terms.
Speaker 5: Investors are doing the work and understanding what's actually happening here.
Speaker 5: If you move it away from the AI ecosystem theme,
Speaker 5: what we're all watching is and I said this at
Speaker 5: the outset is credit spreads are just historically tight. If
Speaker 5: you buy a generic investment grade bond today, eighty five
Speaker 5: percent of your coupon is a treasury yield, and so
Speaker 5: effectively it's an enhanced treasury, right, and so I think
Speaker 5: about you know what that means in a rockier economic environment.
Speaker 2: Well, the question we've been asking is why people so
Speaker 2: much more comfortable taking the credit risk when the additional
Speaker 2: yield is so small. And I seem to be more
Speaker 2: concerned about the trenchery than they on the corporate credit. Yeah,
Speaker 2: you hearing the same think.
Speaker 5: Yeah, And it's interesting. Part of it is corporate credit
Speaker 5: fundamentals in general remain very strong, and so there's a
Speaker 5: comfort level with that. But there is also just a
Speaker 5: tremendous amount of capital that has to be deployed. But
Speaker 5: I do think again with even within the investment grade universe,
Speaker 5: there is differentiation. But you're absolutely right it is to me,
Speaker 5: that's what we're watching is it's a historically tight spread.
Speaker 2: Stay with US multile imperg savans coming up off to
Speaker 2: this the next read on inflation twenty four hours away
Speaker 2: with PC data just around the corner, Francis Donald of RBC, writing,
Speaker 2: the new wrinkle in our outlook is Wash positioning the
Speaker 2: FED as keen to return inflation back to two percent.
Speaker 2: Should the Fed begin hiking, the heat under inflation may
Speaker 2: be more contained. Francis joins us now for more, Francis,
Speaker 2: good morning, good to see you. Debate we've had so
Speaker 2: far this morning and over the last week is whether
Speaker 2: this is a change in style or substance, a change
Speaker 2: in policy or how we communicate policy. How would you
Speaker 2: describe it?
Speaker 6: Certainly a change in style, and we'll wait to see
Speaker 6: whether it's a change in substance. But John Artik has
Speaker 6: always been follow the data. The data will tell us
Speaker 6: where central banks are going to go, give or take
Speaker 6: a little bias to one side or the other twenty
Speaker 6: five to fifty basis points. And right now the problem
Speaker 6: is inflation, which finally we have a share of the
Speaker 6: Federal Reserve which is calling it out. You know, thirty
Speaker 6: percent of the CPI basket is running above I'm sorry,
Speaker 6: forty percent of the CPI of basket is running above
Speaker 6: three percent right now, including food, daycare, healthcare, even pet
Speaker 6: services are running above three percent, way away from that
Speaker 6: FEDCE target. And there is more inflation in the system
Speaker 6: outside of energy. This is a central bank that is
Speaker 6: going to have to contend with that. But more importantly,
Speaker 6: this is an American per people that is going to
Speaker 6: have to contend with ongoing inflationary pressures in core services
Speaker 6: all the way to food. And this is a central
Speaker 6: bank that is finally acknowledging there is a problem here
Speaker 6: and something needs to be done about it.
Speaker 2: And can they address the problem of for inscis how
Speaker 2: right sensitive is that demand that's leading to this price pressure?
Speaker 6: Well, this is the challenge. There is a lot of
Speaker 6: breadth under inflation and who's bearing the challenges of that.
Speaker 6: While it's low and middle income Americans. And while our
Speaker 6: take has been that the inflation issue is not really
Speaker 6: an energy issue, that has been one compounding factor, what's
Speaker 6: happening under the surface is there are cracks starting to
Speaker 6: form amongst low and middle income Americans. That's saving rate
Speaker 6: has dropped pretty precipitously since the start of the energy crash.
Speaker 6: We've seen an uptick and credit usage, real wages have
Speaker 6: gone more negative, and so there are signs yellow flags,
Speaker 6: I would say, for low and middle income Americans that
Speaker 6: are struggling. Now if we raise interest rates, it's a
Speaker 6: catch twenty two. And this is a central bank that
Speaker 6: hasn't really had to deal with this challenge of the
Speaker 6: K shaped economy, which is being divided by demographics and
Speaker 6: also by income uses. So this I think will be
Speaker 6: Warsha's biggest challenge, not inflation. If it was straightforward inflation
Speaker 6: and the regular pre pandemic economy, you could hike interest
Speaker 6: rates bring down. But now with a very weak bottom
Speaker 6: ninety percent of American consumers, you hike interest rates just
Speaker 6: too far, you risk a much bigger slowdown in the consumer.
Speaker 1: What's a bigger hit on the income of lower income
Speaker 1: consumers for insis interest rates going higher or the way
Speaker 1: that inflation has ticked up at a number of different components.
Speaker 6: I'm continuously worried about food price inflation, and a lot
Speaker 6: of our leading indicators tell us there is still some
Speaker 6: impact coming from that from the conflict in the Middle
Speaker 6: East that will be more lagged. Food inflation is one
Speaker 6: of those pieces of inflation that Americans see every single
Speaker 6: day and they cannot substitute away from it. Sometimes we
Speaker 6: see some moves from beef to chicken to peanut butter.
Speaker 6: But everybody has to eat, so keeping your eye on
Speaker 6: food price inflation is going to be critical. And here's
Speaker 6: the big challenge is the part of my job is
Speaker 6: to talk to everyone from hedge funds who are looking
Speaker 6: at headline inflation and how rates are pricing that in
Speaker 6: but all the way over to CEOs. Now, markets are
Speaker 6: going to be very relieved because inflation has probably peaked
Speaker 6: in headline terms, and by Q two of twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 6: Once we get to the summer of twenty twenty seven,
Speaker 6: our call is at headline inflation will be sub two percent.
Speaker 6: But if you're CEO running a business, particularly one that's
Speaker 6: exposed to consumers, consumers are still going to be struggling
Speaker 6: with price pain that isn't going backwards. So you're going
Speaker 6: to get a dichotomy here between headline inflation that maybe
Speaker 6: soothes the FED, maybe soothes markets, but doesn't impact real America,
Speaker 6: and navigating that transition is going to be challenging through
Speaker 6: the rest of twenty twenty six and into twenty twenty seven.
Speaker 1: Are you seeing any, for lack of a better phrase,
Speaker 1: trickle down from the hyperscaler investment the capex et cetera,
Speaker 1: to middle and lower income just average consumers, given the
Speaker 1: fact that so much of the growth has really come
Speaker 1: from there, and if you strip that out, the US
Speaker 1: would probably be in a shrinking type of condition.
Speaker 6: Well we wouldn't be shrinking, but we certainly wouldn't be
Speaker 6: close to two percent, which is about where we see
Speaker 6: the trend economy going right now. That two percent is coming,
Speaker 6: of course from this massive infrastructure build out, it's also
Speaker 6: coming from big government and of course the savior of
Speaker 6: the headline consumer, which is that top ten percent. What's
Speaker 6: going to continue to matter for consumers and why we
Speaker 6: think that the US economy can persist a two percent
Speaker 6: is because the labor market is very, very tight. That
Speaker 6: will continue to be the most important thing. And the
Speaker 6: labor market is going to stay tight and has nothing
Speaker 6: to do or almost little to do with what's happening
Speaker 6: in AI. It has to do with mass retirements, a
Speaker 6: shrinking labor force, par anticipation rate, and a consumer that
Speaker 6: now is not going to be judged on whether they
Speaker 6: have a job or not, but are they making enough
Speaker 6: money and working enough hours in order to pay for life.
Speaker 6: So you've got many structural themes that are happening under
Speaker 6: the surface, and the core message I have for clients
Speaker 6: is don't use the pre pandemic way of thinking about
Speaker 6: a cycle as a good element or a good way
Speaker 6: to think about where the economy is going to go next.
Speaker 6: These structural trends from AI to labor first, participation rate
Speaker 6: declining are changing the way we have to think about
Speaker 6: the American economy and it means that markets are going
Speaker 6: to react differently. Businesses are going to operate differently.
Speaker 2: Well.
Speaker 4: When it comes to the Federal Reserve, I mean, Kevin
Speaker 4: Moore said, the monetary policy is somewhat restrictive in some sectors.
Speaker 4: Them raising interest rates is not going to hurt the
Speaker 4: AI build out, but might continuously restrict those certain sectors
Speaker 4: like housing.
Speaker 6: That's exactly right. Monetary policy is a poor tool for
Speaker 6: an economy that is fragmented by sector, by income group.
Speaker 6: And we've seen this. We've seen central banks across the
Speaker 6: entire world who are struggling with what do you do
Speaker 6: when your regions look very different? What do you do
Speaker 6: when your incomes look very different? For now, the mandate
Speaker 6: of the central bank is price stability, oh and labor.
Speaker 6: But FED chair worships maybe put that to the side
Speaker 6: for a little bit, and if your mandate is inflation,
Speaker 6: then that's what you've got to target. So the biggest
Speaker 6: risk moving forward to me is not a huge move
Speaker 6: in the bond market. It's not a collapse of the
Speaker 6: US economy. It's what happens to middle and low income
Speaker 6: Americans in a hiking environment. In our view, it's probably
Speaker 6: going to take a lowercase K economy and move it
Speaker 6: to an uppercase K economy.
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Survendons podcast, bringing you the best
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