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Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome

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Speaker 1: to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.

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Speaker 1: I am Chad Moment Cheap Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: I am joined as I am for every episode by

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Speaker 1: my bff, my companion, my compadre, professional better Simon Hunter,

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Speaker 1: Hello swim In, Hello Chat, our last show of Wow.

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Speaker 1: I didn't even think put it in context against the

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Speaker 1: end of the year. It's been such a wacky week

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Speaker 1: with vacations getting canceled and sort of feeling a little

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Speaker 1: bit lost that I've forgotten that all of a sudden,

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Speaker 1: this weekend is the last weekend of the year. Man,

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Speaker 1: we did it. Who is your Uh? Did you get

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Speaker 1: your Action thing into the year thing? From Action app

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Speaker 1: where he said with what team you bet on the

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Speaker 1: most and won the most on I did? I love

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Speaker 1: that review, and of course I've completely forgotten it already, um,

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Speaker 1: but I love it. Uh way to plug your product? Well,

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Speaker 1: I got the Bengals, which I was shocked at. And

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Speaker 1: then it made sense because if you're near to the

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Speaker 1: show that your me. Chad were hot. Last year in

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Speaker 1: the playoffs, I won eleven and four best bets. Chad

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Speaker 1: went twelve and three best bets. And I went through

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Speaker 1: and I looked all my bets from the Bengals, and

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Speaker 1: then this year all my bets had pretty much on

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Speaker 1: the Bengals. So my best team for two was the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: which not too much of a shock. I think someone

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Speaker 1: put it out there there the best team a t

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Speaker 1: S in the last like twenty years since we started

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Speaker 1: tracking data, this has just been insane run by this

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Speaker 1: Bengals team. My best league was the NFL UP twenty

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Speaker 1: one units and three and NFL bets this year. My

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Speaker 1: best months were January and November. Ah yeah, of course

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Speaker 1: and November this past month was just rocket ship. My

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Speaker 1: biggest win was September twenty five, the Dolphins beating the Bills. Oh.

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Speaker 1: I had a big win on Jacksonville beating of the year.

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Speaker 1: I'm getting there. My worst team was Houston Texans. Man,

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Speaker 1: it's like we never found the right rhythm with the Texas.

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Speaker 1: We were on them so much early and have not

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Speaker 1: been on him as much as late. And the team

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Speaker 1: I could count on the most my top team, like

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Speaker 1: you Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, Washington Commanders. Interesting. I listened

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Speaker 1: to the Action Network podcast earlier this year. My overall

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Speaker 1: record was this year sixteen and three for all bets

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Speaker 1: across all sports tracked in the Action Network app. So

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Speaker 1: it's a really cool sort of Spotify like wrap up.

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Speaker 1: I listened to the Action Network podcast this morning. Was

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Speaker 1: Stucky in Raybon uh Rabon's best team was also the Bengals.

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Speaker 1: I think a lot of people we're gonna have the

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Speaker 1: Bengals as the best team you bet on football, given

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Speaker 1: the fact that they're twenty and three against spread the

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Speaker 1: last twenty three games and that end of the Ever

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Speaker 1: feel like a lot of the pros just rode the

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Speaker 1: Bengals in the playoffs like that. Every game, I feel

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Speaker 1: like they're catching a couple of points and you're just like,

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Speaker 1: well them as a dog, they'll only loser win by three.

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Speaker 1: And yeah, that pretty much carried a lot of people

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Speaker 1: last year. Yep, that's totally true, totally true. It is Thursday,

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Speaker 1: As is our custom on Thursday, we will try to

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Speaker 1: nail down our final five as is always the custom

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Speaker 1: as well. You can follow those picks uh just about

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Speaker 1: an hour before kickoff, Simon and I will put them

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Speaker 1: in the Action Network app. Follow the Phaves five to

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Speaker 1: get all of the picks. The other picks follow the

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Speaker 1: Favorites podcast. Reminder we do that separately. Just a reminder.

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Speaker 1: The Phase five is just the five picks that Simon

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Speaker 1: and I put in our contest. We are currently five

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Speaker 1: games out of first. We're a top fifty. We are

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Speaker 1: pretty much guaranteed to be in the money out of

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Speaker 1: four thousand people. But when you get to top ten

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Speaker 1: is when you make the big money. So we are

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Speaker 1: still striving in these last two weeks to make up

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Speaker 1: ground and get to the top ten. Um Our foxhold

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Speaker 1: this week was the Texans plus four. Unfortunately that number

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Speaker 1: is at four and a half. H Simon says was

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Speaker 1: Vikings plus three and a half. That is still the

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Speaker 1: current number. Uh. The exact decision. I'm excited to hear

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Speaker 1: if there were shop calls about this for me, the

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Speaker 1: Bills minus one and a half. We owe you a

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Speaker 1: big balls, we owe you a scoot roulette, we owe

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Speaker 1: you a money line around Robin as always, Let's start

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Speaker 1: with sharp calls. Hello, who's there. I'm talking telephone, Chad.

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Speaker 1: You already know I's pretty busy this week, so I'll

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Speaker 1: be up front with the fans. I all the calls

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Speaker 1: I usually take. I pushed a lot of them to

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Speaker 1: my lackeys. Let them do my minions, let them do

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Speaker 1: a lot of the work this week. So I mean,

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Speaker 1: I gotta I got a bunch of the games, but

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Speaker 1: it's not it's not gonna be one of my stronger weeks,

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Speaker 1: and it's gonna be one of those weeks to where

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Speaker 1: most of the pros they're just I don't know, not

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Speaker 1: that they're going hard this week, but they kind of

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Speaker 1: took positions early in the week based off a lot

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Speaker 1: of rumors and noise. They're kind of just waiting for

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Speaker 1: this next week. In the playoffs, where next week is

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Speaker 1: you find a lot of value. There's certain teams you'll

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Speaker 1: see next week that are simply quitting or taking off.

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Speaker 1: Were other teams you know they're going full board or

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Speaker 1: they're not gonna play either because they're arrest ours for

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Speaker 1: the playoffs. So yeah, there's always action, Like I got

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Speaker 1: games here, we'll talk about where guys are. It's a

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Speaker 1: lot of split. People are betting both sides, but there's

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Speaker 1: no like dudes making big, big bets or guys taking

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Speaker 1: huge stains. I mean, the craziest action I would say

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Speaker 1: early on was that forty Niners news, which I was

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Speaker 1: gonna be all in on the Raiders, and I simply said,

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Speaker 1: I gotta wait and see what the deal is. You said, wait,

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Speaker 1: I actually have a note of it. I thought it

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Speaker 1: was very impressive. You said we would like Vegas plus six,

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Speaker 1: but you said just to wait. We gotta keep our

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Speaker 1: powder dry. And it's just it's just because we're ratting

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Speaker 1: this season where money is real. Like the owner of

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Speaker 1: the Raiders is a cheap dude. I think everyone can

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Speaker 1: agree on that this guy is pretty cheap. He's not

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Speaker 1: a self made man. He's a guy that took over

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Speaker 1: his dad's business and he's running it. And that's a

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Speaker 1: lot of money that they're can admit that Derek Carr

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Speaker 1: Deirk Carr say blew his knee out in this final game,

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Speaker 1: like they'd be stuck in it contractually if he got injured.

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Speaker 1: So they're making a business decision. So piss, I didn't

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Speaker 1: take the other side because I I was just like,

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Speaker 1: all right, I'll throw them in a teaser or something.

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Speaker 1: The four nineers for very small didn't put a lot

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Speaker 1: into it, just took them to win straight up. And

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Speaker 1: got a text that morning, like again, I was traveling,

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Speaker 1: got a text, Hey, deir Car, I don't think he's

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Speaker 1: gonna play. I think he's gonna come out, He's gonna

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Speaker 1: sit just take the number. And I was like, ah,

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Speaker 1: I gotta wait and see because I don't I didn't

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Speaker 1: really trust the source on it. Man, were the pros

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Speaker 1: all over that one? So that that sucked and missed

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Speaker 1: that boat. Jalen Hurts one sucks to where I thought

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Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts was gonna play. It's looking more and more

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Speaker 1: based off the line movement that people are getting info,

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Speaker 1: it seems like he's kno gonna play. He hasn't practiced either,

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Speaker 1: So get into shark calls this week. We're split chat.

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Speaker 1: We are split down the middle of Well, start with

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Speaker 1: the green Bay Vikings game. I get where they're coming

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Speaker 1: from why they like green Bay in this matchup, but

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Speaker 1: I just feel like it's too much disrespect to the Vikings.

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Speaker 1: At three and a half, that's a great number. In

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Speaker 1: a divisional game where that let's do the Vikings are

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Speaker 1: they play these games close? And if green Bay was

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Speaker 1: some juggernaut, if this was a forty Niners say, Okay,

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Speaker 1: I'll give the benefit to that home team. Catch a

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Speaker 1: three minus three and a half at home. Yeah, I'll

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Speaker 1: be on the forty ninager against the Vikings green Bay

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Speaker 1: with Aaron Rodgers. This just isn't what people think they are.

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Speaker 1: They're just not as good as people perceive them. They've

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Speaker 1: had really good matchups here these last couple of weeks

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Speaker 1: and played some bad teams. They peaked out some good wins.

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Speaker 1: Like I'll give them credit for that minus three and

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Speaker 1: a half, though, that just feels like such an overaction.

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Speaker 1: So interesting hearing that there's pros who actually like green Bay.

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Speaker 1: They took him at three, they took him my minus

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Speaker 1: two and a half. They still said they'd taken my

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Speaker 1: minus three and a half. I just totally disagree with

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Speaker 1: that one. Um. I get once in there, I get

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Speaker 1: where they're coming from, but I'm just on the other

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Speaker 1: side of it. And the same goes for this Jet

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Speaker 1: Seahawks game. The pros think, not only that the Sea

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Speaker 1: ere do that this is too much of an overaction

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Speaker 1: to a Seahawks team at home that they played well

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Speaker 1: at home. And I still think it's the same thing

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Speaker 1: where me and you already got burned on this, where

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Speaker 1: the Seahawks just aren't the same team that were earlier

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Speaker 1: in the year. The book seems like it's had on Gino.

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Speaker 1: The Jets are healthy, right if Mike White's playing in

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Speaker 1: this game, and that's all guaranteed. I just I love

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Speaker 1: this number for them. They just feel like a better

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Speaker 1: version of the Carolina Panthers, and we saw the Panthers

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Speaker 1: go up Seattle absolutely dominate this team. So shocked to

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Speaker 1: hear that the pros loved this number so much. Um.

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Speaker 1: I just to me, the Jets were like the right

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Speaker 1: side and the pros are against us again with the

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Speaker 1: picks we're on. Um. But the one they like that

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Speaker 1: Chad made, I'm almost possiti you made was the bill, Dude.

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Speaker 1: That was my exact decision. It Yeah, And I'm so

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Speaker 1: I just don't get it. It's the same thing to

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Speaker 1: do where it's like I'll support it, I'll back it.

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Speaker 1: It's a game I just don't have a great read on.

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Speaker 1: But I just feel like to play here is you

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Speaker 1: just tease up since and you kind of kind of

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Speaker 1: push this one and just enjoy this game where man,

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Speaker 1: it's just such a coin flip game. But like the

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Speaker 1: pros are agreeing with you, you're getting the better team

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Speaker 1: under a fuel goal. Gotta back Josh Allen and they believe.

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Speaker 1: I'm like, that's not all public money. The reason that

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Speaker 1: the Bills are the biggest bet team to win the

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Speaker 1: superstiue that's a lot of pro money too. So it's

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Speaker 1: a guy the pros love, and they're they're right there

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Speaker 1: with Chad. They think this number should be minus three.

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Speaker 1: I think it should be a pick. It's right in

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Speaker 1: the middle of minus one and a half. And I'll

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Speaker 1: ride with my guy chat here. So I'm still back

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Speaker 1: in the Bills. It was just interesting. I thought this

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Speaker 1: should be more of a split game. The the pros

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Speaker 1: love the Bills here. They love them. By the way,

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Speaker 1: this line is now down to minus one, which is

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Speaker 1: interesting because of the money pros backing the Bills, the

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Speaker 1: tickets backing the Bengals. So for people listening live and

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Speaker 1: for people who will be listening over the nexts, do

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Speaker 1: we bet the Bills at minus one? If you can

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Speaker 1: find it at minus one. It is uh uh, there

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Speaker 1: are minus ones out there. Yeah. Also, I think that's

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Speaker 1: part of the teaser, the teaser, like where like you

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Speaker 1: get a six point teaser, that's seven and a half.

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Speaker 1: That's such a key number. The books moved the seven.

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Speaker 1: Now most books they kind of lost on a on

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Speaker 1: a teaser if it's a push, so um makes sense

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Speaker 1: they moved it. It's just it's exactly what we just

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Speaker 1: talked about. Child Like, I get where you're coming from.

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Speaker 1: But if I if I see this game any NETI pick,

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Speaker 1: I could honestly because that's where I have. And I

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Speaker 1: just feel like the pros they love, they just loved

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Speaker 1: the bills. I feel like they're blind to it at

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Speaker 1: this point, but I get exactly where they're coming from.

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Speaker 1: It's just I feel like it's an overlay of a

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Speaker 1: bunch of pros are pissed because they keep losing money,

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Speaker 1: fading Joe Burrow and they it's like three weeks straight

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Speaker 1: now that I know some really smart guys, and every

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Speaker 1: week they fucking calling me, and they got me last

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Speaker 1: week where I totally agreed with him. I thought that

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Speaker 1: was the exact right spot to take The Patriots we

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Speaker 1: just got simply unlucky. But I honestly count that as

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Speaker 1: a loss to Joe. So as much as I get there,

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Speaker 1: what they're chasing here on fading Joe Burrow and it's

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Speaker 1: gonna catch up to him like this, this will catch

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Speaker 1: up to them. That's what I'm a little worried about

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Speaker 1: this Bengos team heading into the playoffs, that they peaked

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Speaker 1: these last couple of weeks and they're kind of gotta

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Speaker 1: fade down the stretch here. So you and all the

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Speaker 1: other you and the pros are on the smart side

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Speaker 1: of You're you're backing the fact that numbers gonna catch

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Speaker 1: up to Joe eventually, which you will, and you're back

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Speaker 1: in the fact that he hasn't caught a loss against

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Speaker 1: the spread, and fucking ah, what is it eight weeks?

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Speaker 1: Like nine weeks, it's something crazy like that, where he's

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Speaker 1: just been a covering machine. So I totally get where

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Speaker 1: you guys are coming from. I think it's just I'm

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Speaker 1: just scared to put the money against them. That's the

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Speaker 1: honest truth. Where it's like, I'm totally with these guys.

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Speaker 1: It's gonna catch them eventually. But it's just interesting that

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Speaker 1: these guys are making a bigger bet on the bills

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Speaker 1: where it's a prime time game and they know this

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Speaker 1: number is gonna fluctuate, like this is the money night game.

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Speaker 1: Depending on how this week goes, We're going to see

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Speaker 1: a lot of money pouring in on this game on

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Speaker 1: Monday Night. I like it. I like when I'm on

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Speaker 1: the same side as the wise guys. It is a

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Speaker 1: good feeling, honestly. That's why, like I wish I was

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Speaker 1: more committed to it, where it's like made sense that

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Speaker 1: so many really smart guys are putting big amounts on it.

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Speaker 1: I freaking love it. Love it. Um, let's dig into

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Speaker 1: another game, a couple other games. Uh, the Jets. That

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Speaker 1: number is down to one and a half. We liked

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Speaker 1: it on Tuesday at two and a half. It's now

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Speaker 1: down to one and a half. I don't know that

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Speaker 1: we will move much more than that. I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: I think that we've seen Pete Gino. This team is

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Speaker 1: not going to get better. They're not going to get

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Speaker 1: better playing against a really, really, really good top five

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Speaker 1: in the league. Jets defense, a Jets defense that can

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Speaker 1: basically do what it wants against the run, daring Geno

286
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Speaker 1: Smith to beat them and has really incredible back end

287
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Speaker 1: coverage exactly. That to me is a difference like that,

288
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Speaker 1: the fact that they can run man, that's such a

289
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Speaker 1: huge advantage. We've seen it all year with this Jets team,

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Speaker 1: so um I told you makes sense what they're they're

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Speaker 1: what they're thinking is where the Seahawks. Where there's the

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Speaker 1: same thing of how overdue the Seahawks are to cover

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Speaker 1: and win games at this point, I like for their

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Speaker 1: standpoint if it's this is just the better version of

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Speaker 1: Carolina with better I don't want to say better coaching,

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Speaker 1: because Carolina's coaching has improved ever since they got rid

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Speaker 1: of their last seat coach. But this Jets team they

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Speaker 1: played so well. I know it doesn't didn't play out

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Speaker 1: that way, but they played so well against the Jaguars

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Speaker 1: team that was humming offensively. They held them to a

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Speaker 1: bunch of field goals and that was a lot of

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Speaker 1: times where they were on a short field because Jack

303
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Speaker 1: Wilson was so animick on the offense. So nothing's changed

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Speaker 1: for me, where like you bringing a quarterback the team

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Speaker 1: believes in that's a spark to a team. We saw

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Speaker 1: the week where they went to Minnesota. I know they

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Speaker 1: didn't win or cover that game. They had every opportunity

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Speaker 1: to this Jets team. We saw the team rally around

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Speaker 1: like Mike White. They had those T shirts on about

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Speaker 1: like whatever it was about having a real quarterback. It

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Speaker 1: was something a little shade thrown at Zack Wilson. So yeah,

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Speaker 1: I I love it. Chat. I just it's one of

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Speaker 1: those where I leak a little bit of confidence. I

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Speaker 1: know I'm going against my brethren, where it's like, I

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Speaker 1: know too smart. Groups came in heavy on the Cityhawks

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Speaker 1: at two and a half and went down to one.

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Speaker 1: Me and a couple of guys went right back in

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Speaker 1: on the Jets, went back up to two, and now

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Speaker 1: it's kind of been bouncing from two to one and

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Speaker 1: a half, and it's like, all right, be three or

321
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Speaker 1: four of us against three or four of other guys,

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Speaker 1: and it's just gonna be us pink ponging. This will

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Speaker 1: never hit three and this will never hit a pick.

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Speaker 1: I feel like it's just gonna sit right here and

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Speaker 1: just bounce back and forth. So as long as it's

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Speaker 1: under two and a half, I feel like we're getting

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Speaker 1: a good number of the Jets. Sounds like we got

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Speaker 1: a wise guy betting battle going on a little bit.

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Speaker 1: I would say that the bigger ones that green Bay Vikings,

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Speaker 1: Like that's like the ter family apart, Like what the

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Speaker 1: fund do you know? No? No, you fucking like kind

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Speaker 1: of arguments going on, Like I stay out of those.

333
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Speaker 1: But like dudes are pissed at each other about a

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Speaker 1: football game, they're like, you know, not that uh we

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Speaker 1: view each other as um. I don't even put it.

336
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Speaker 1: Put in a phrase about ship on someone, but it's

337
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Speaker 1: like calling someone you know, going chalk. It's like you're

338
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Speaker 1: super chalk. If you take the Vikings here, like you're

339
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Speaker 1: taking a team that has over ten wins, that's a

340
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Speaker 1: three and a half point underdog on the road. That

341
00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:33,680
Speaker 1: should be your signal to take green Bay here. Like

342
00:16:33,680 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 1: the bookmakers are telling you something here, and I just

343
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:38,960
Speaker 1: say the bookmakers are overacting, just like the general public

344
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Speaker 1: is this Green Bay team. It's like, yes, do I

345
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Speaker 1: think green Bay is gonna probably win and steal this game? Yeah?

346
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Speaker 1: But over three and a half, No way, like they

347
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Speaker 1: can maybe squeak this out by field goal. They're just

348
00:16:49,760 --> 00:16:51,480
Speaker 1: not that good of a team, Like look at their

349
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Speaker 1: last couple of wins, who they played, how they won

350
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Speaker 1: those games. Their defense isn't as good as people are perceived,

351
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Speaker 1: and I don't think the offense is as good as

352
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Speaker 1: people perceived. And I agree with the Viking stuff. The

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Speaker 1: Lakings have major flaws. Like we all know about their

354
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Speaker 1: point differential and how much they've struggled this year and

355
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Speaker 1: are there closer to an eight and seven team than

356
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Speaker 1: what they are now? Yes, but I think that that

357
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Speaker 1: says more about Kirk and this team. We're like, they

358
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Speaker 1: just they're dead, They're left for dead and to keep

359
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Speaker 1: fighting back every week. So you can't scare me off

360
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Speaker 1: of it. Three and a half. If it's three half

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Speaker 1: of the contest, I have to put it in. It's

362
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Speaker 1: just a number I have to play. It feels like

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Speaker 1: at this point in the year, we know exactly what

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Speaker 1: all these teams are, and I know exactly what I'm

365
00:17:28,200 --> 00:17:30,439
Speaker 1: getting from Minnesota. At three and a half, that's just

366
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Speaker 1: too good a value to pass on. By the way,

367
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Speaker 1: we always reference the luck rankings, and we'll get to

368
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Speaker 1: this number one luck ranking differential this week Denver in

369
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Speaker 1: Kansas City, number two Green Bay in Minnesota. So the

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00:17:47,320 --> 00:17:51,040
Speaker 1: Minnesota has been the way luckier team. Yeah, right? Uh?

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Speaker 1: And and also luck differentials of sixteen or more winning

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Speaker 1: it a clip this year, Uh, Denver, Green Bay, Indie,

373
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Speaker 1: New Orleans, Cleveland, all at luck differentials of seventeen or more. Um.

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Speaker 1: Interesting by the way. The next one in the list

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Speaker 1: Houston Jacksonville the differentials eleven. And I do want to

376
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Speaker 1: talk about Houston and Jacksonville. That was our Foxhole game.

377
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Speaker 1: That plus four. The line's gone up to four and

378
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Speaker 1: a half. Um. I still feel really good about Texas.

379
00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,639
Speaker 1: The Texans here. Yeah. I think that was after the

380
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Speaker 1: Doug Peterson press conference where he said he wasn't gonnaar

381
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Speaker 1: rest starters, So maybe that's why they neverberre bumped up.

382
00:18:41,160 --> 00:18:43,480
Speaker 1: But from the pros I talked to, it seems like

383
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Speaker 1: one of those where it's like you bet Houston here,

384
00:18:45,080 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 1: you bet nothing. Like you can't trust the Jaguars in

385
00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:50,679
Speaker 1: the game. They just simply don't need And yeah, they

386
00:18:50,720 --> 00:18:53,080
Speaker 1: might show out and they're they're they're professionals. I'm sure

387
00:18:53,080 --> 00:18:55,040
Speaker 1: they're gonna try and they're gonna try to put up stats,

388
00:18:55,960 --> 00:18:59,000
Speaker 1: but I don't know the Houston lane egg after winning

389
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Speaker 1: a game. I get that argument as well, but I

390
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,840
Speaker 1: just well, he's had to end up these last couple

391
00:19:03,840 --> 00:19:05,800
Speaker 1: of weeks. It's it's hard for us to predict that

392
00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 1: they have such a letdown game here where every week

393
00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,640
Speaker 1: they've had nothing to play for technically, and they've showed

394
00:19:10,720 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 1: up like they've had key starters not playing in these games,

395
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,800
Speaker 1: and they're taking these games to the wires. Like that

396
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 1: Chiefs game. When I went back and watched it, I'm

397
00:19:18,520 --> 00:19:19,800
Speaker 1: sure I had a lot to do with the scheme

398
00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,200
Speaker 1: and Mahomes not having the best game, But he wasn't

399
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,159
Speaker 1: really that bad in that game, Like he was actually

400
00:19:25,200 --> 00:19:27,160
Speaker 1: completing a lot of passes, just the offense was moving

401
00:19:27,200 --> 00:19:29,399
Speaker 1: the ball. So well, see him against Dallas and then

402
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,199
Speaker 1: see him against Tennessee last week, so it seems like

403
00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:34,399
Speaker 1: they kind of found something in Houston. And if this

404
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:37,439
Speaker 1: was three, I could see why you would take the Jags.

405
00:19:37,480 --> 00:19:40,639
Speaker 1: But the fact that it's four and a half, now,

406
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 1: how do we not take this if it's in the contest,

407
00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:45,600
Speaker 1: That's just it's another one of those games where it's like,

408
00:19:46,240 --> 00:19:48,480
Speaker 1: maybe we'll be kicking ourselves come one day. It's like,

409
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,720
Speaker 1: no wonder, it was such a a good number, but

410
00:19:51,840 --> 00:19:55,399
Speaker 1: it feels like just an overreaction of Yes, the jo

411
00:19:55,520 --> 00:19:57,760
Speaker 1: Wars are very good. They're probably gonna win this division?

412
00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:00,560
Speaker 1: Are they four and a half better? And Houston a

413
00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:02,640
Speaker 1: team that's had their numbers over these last couple of years,

414
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 1: even when Houston was terrible. No, so yeah, give me,

415
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,199
Speaker 1: give me Houston. Yeah, we can't avoid this numbers. Yeah, yeah,

416
00:20:09,200 --> 00:20:13,360
Speaker 1: I'm only I'm only disappointed that staggars on the road too,

417
00:20:13,560 --> 00:20:16,920
Speaker 1: like Juars back to back on the road. Come on,

418
00:20:17,040 --> 00:20:20,600
Speaker 1: what are we missing here? But like I said, I

419
00:20:20,640 --> 00:20:22,919
Speaker 1: bet it on Tuesday. My only disappointment is that I

420
00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:24,880
Speaker 1: took the Texans at four and not four and a half.

421
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Speaker 1: That's when you got to bet it again, brother, Yeah,

422
00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,200
Speaker 1: that's right. I told you that last week. I think

423
00:20:30,200 --> 00:20:31,639
Speaker 1: it was like you were like, well, I bet that

424
00:20:31,800 --> 00:20:34,399
Speaker 1: under in the chiefs um Seahawks game at forty nine,

425
00:20:34,520 --> 00:20:37,879
Speaker 1: it's fifteen and a half. I was like, even better again,

426
00:20:38,880 --> 00:20:40,520
Speaker 1: if you like it that much of forty nine, go

427
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:44,920
Speaker 1: back in again again. That will burn you sometimes that overall,

428
00:20:44,960 --> 00:20:48,080
Speaker 1: I really do feel like you just take the better value,

429
00:20:48,160 --> 00:20:50,879
Speaker 1: trust the instincts of Okay, the public is wrong on

430
00:20:50,920 --> 00:20:52,720
Speaker 1: this one. I'm gonna keep getting a better number. And

431
00:20:53,160 --> 00:20:54,880
Speaker 1: that's how it kind of goes with this one where

432
00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 1: I do think it's because Doug said no starters will rest.

433
00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,800
Speaker 1: We saw this flip vice versa. No, we can't really

434
00:21:00,800 --> 00:21:02,360
Speaker 1: talk about Maybe we'll at the end of the AMP

435
00:21:02,400 --> 00:21:06,320
Speaker 1: listeners about the Cowboys Titans game that moved three points

436
00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 1: when the head coach Rabel came out, was just like, yep,

437
00:21:08,840 --> 00:21:12,120
Speaker 1: resting them. Yeah, they're gnry doubtful. So ten guys, ten

438
00:21:12,240 --> 00:21:15,880
Speaker 1: starters on the are listed as doubtful or they won't

439
00:21:15,880 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 1: be playing. Um, they're treating this one like an exhibition game.

440
00:21:19,000 --> 00:21:21,400
Speaker 1: Let's do that at the end, just for the ampers. Well,

441
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,200
Speaker 1: what I'm gonna say on that is that you could

442
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,520
Speaker 1: have the same thing with the Jaguars Texans, where this

443
00:21:25,600 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 1: number could be four and a half all of a

444
00:21:27,640 --> 00:21:30,159
Speaker 1: sudden Sunday morning, you see, Okay, they're gonna arrest Travis

445
00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:33,200
Speaker 1: etm they're gonna they're gonna arrest A Jones, They're only

446
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:37,240
Speaker 1: gonna play um Lawrence for the first half. Whatever it is.

447
00:21:37,280 --> 00:21:39,000
Speaker 1: There might be news that might make this number moves.

448
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 1: So that's what I mean, Like, if you just want

449
00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:42,479
Speaker 1: to be safe where you are with us on it,

450
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: make sure you grab the four and half now, because

451
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:46,400
Speaker 1: this number good move. If teams are gonna start resting

452
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:51,160
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453
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460
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483
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484
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485
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486
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487
00:23:57,080 --> 00:24:00,919
Speaker 1: game that's popping up a little bit in conversation. I

488
00:24:01,000 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 1: listened to Stucky and Rabon talk about it in the

489
00:24:02,960 --> 00:24:07,960
Speaker 1: Action Network Pod. I'm looking at it as the fourth

490
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:14,160
Speaker 1: biggest differential in the luck rankings. New Orleans Saints going

491
00:24:14,160 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 1: to play the Philadelphia Eagles at six point dogs, what about?

492
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:25,320
Speaker 1: Do you think? I like the Birds, but it's it's

493
00:24:25,359 --> 00:24:27,480
Speaker 1: definitely murky. We don't know who the quarterback is going

494
00:24:27,520 --> 00:24:30,840
Speaker 1: to be, and they're now down a key starter on

495
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:35,160
Speaker 1: the offensive line. So I would say makes sense the pros.

496
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 1: The pros like the Saints and they'll grab that number.

497
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:40,720
Speaker 1: I told you I thought if it was gonna be Minshew,

498
00:24:40,760 --> 00:24:42,760
Speaker 1: this number be four and a half. If it's Hurts,

499
00:24:43,119 --> 00:24:45,040
Speaker 1: I see it's number been seven a half, like eight

500
00:24:45,080 --> 00:24:46,719
Speaker 1: and a half. I see a big movement here if

501
00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:51,119
Speaker 1: it's just Hurts compared to Minshew. Um. The more I

502
00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:53,120
Speaker 1: think about, the more I feel like it's a little

503
00:24:53,119 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 1: bit of a reaction to the Saints last week catching

504
00:24:56,240 --> 00:25:00,400
Speaker 1: the terrible Cleveland team and a tsunami outdoors. We've seen

505
00:25:00,400 --> 00:25:02,800
Speaker 1: this Egos team at home be dominant. We've seen them

506
00:25:02,840 --> 00:25:05,480
Speaker 1: totally be a different team at home against teams, especially

507
00:25:05,520 --> 00:25:09,240
Speaker 1: bad teams. So I might stay away from it because

508
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:11,199
Speaker 1: maybe we're getting a bad number in the contest, right,

509
00:25:11,240 --> 00:25:13,119
Speaker 1: maybe closes six and a half, and that's where the

510
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 1: value is in the Saints, Like you should take that

511
00:25:15,080 --> 00:25:18,439
Speaker 1: number against Minshee and the contest. That's fair um to me,

512
00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:20,240
Speaker 1: I would just stay away from it. Where the Saints

513
00:25:20,240 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 1: coming off a huge win on the road now on

514
00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 1: a back to back road game against an Eagles team

515
00:25:25,560 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: I just lost brutally to Dallas. They're piste off this week,

516
00:25:29,640 --> 00:25:32,960
Speaker 1: Like the whole week, all these guys seemed really piste off.

517
00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:35,440
Speaker 1: They might take it on the Saints here, blow them out,

518
00:25:35,400 --> 00:25:37,239
Speaker 1: and they know they'll get two weeks off heading into

519
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,080
Speaker 1: the playoffs, Like that's a big deal to them, get

520
00:25:39,080 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 1: two weeks of rest heading into this. So um, the

521
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,800
Speaker 1: play for me is probably still just gonna be teased

522
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: the Eagles and I'll stay away from the spread. But

523
00:25:47,560 --> 00:25:49,480
Speaker 1: totally understand that guys coming on the six and a half.

524
00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 1: I know that a plenty of pros that came in

525
00:25:51,119 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 1: on the seven with the Saints once where it came

526
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 1: out Hurts wasn't practicing, So it feels like a number

527
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,000
Speaker 1: I'll be bouncing around. Maybe I'll settle in a four

528
00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:03,399
Speaker 1: and a half five once we know it's Minshew. Yeah, um,

529
00:26:03,520 --> 00:26:07,160
Speaker 1: I think the other things that are the factors Avante Maddox.

530
00:26:07,200 --> 00:26:11,320
Speaker 1: We saw in that Cowboys game, the Eagles defense in

531
00:26:11,359 --> 00:26:15,280
Speaker 1: their secondary when he wasn't playing, just wasn't as good

532
00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,760
Speaker 1: like in any of sort of the third down scenarios.

533
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,600
Speaker 1: You lose that guy, and they talked about it and

534
00:26:22,680 --> 00:26:30,880
Speaker 1: immediately that's where the Cowboys started attacking. Um Jordan Davis concussion. Uh.

535
00:26:30,920 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: You know, against a team that likes to run the ball,

536
00:26:34,480 --> 00:26:38,199
Speaker 1: they play zone. Andy Dalton decent against the zone. Like,

537
00:26:38,240 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: I think there are some other factors here that are

538
00:26:40,480 --> 00:26:44,120
Speaker 1: that are shaping up for them. Yeah, but it's still

539
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 1: the Saints, man Like, they fucking suck Like that's no

540
00:26:47,520 --> 00:26:49,960
Speaker 1: exaggeration if you go back and watching this year. They're

541
00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: a bad team with Dennis Allen, who's a bad head coach.

542
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:56,280
Speaker 1: So you're you're playing with fire if you're gonna back

543
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:58,919
Speaker 1: a Saint's team on back to back road games. Um,

544
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 1: I think I used up all my luck last week

545
00:27:02,560 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 1: on the Saints. I'm not going to do it again

546
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:07,919
Speaker 1: this week. All right, that's fair. Do you have a

547
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:11,440
Speaker 1: feeling on the Raiders have been really interesting? You said

548
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:16,720
Speaker 1: the Raiders? We should wait now jared'stid home is starting. Uh,

549
00:27:16,840 --> 00:27:20,640
Speaker 1: it's not going to be one that we necessarily want

550
00:27:20,640 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: to play unless in the contest we're seeing it still

551
00:27:23,760 --> 00:27:25,720
Speaker 1: a five and a half, even six and a half.

552
00:27:25,760 --> 00:27:28,040
Speaker 1: If you're in a different contest than us, I would

553
00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,480
Speaker 1: smash this. You're Derek Carr as much ship as people

554
00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:33,280
Speaker 1: want to give him, how bad he's been this year.

555
00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:36,360
Speaker 1: I think they're like a top fifteen offense and their

556
00:27:36,400 --> 00:27:40,000
Speaker 1: defense is thirty first. So you're taking away now a

557
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,960
Speaker 1: top twelve, top fifteen starter, and you're replacing him with

558
00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:48,879
Speaker 1: a I mean being nice, a bottom forty five, bottom

559
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:52,440
Speaker 1: fifty quarterback. This is a nw amare scenario. If you're

560
00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 1: a Raiders fan or better, Um, they're taking I mean,

561
00:27:55,920 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 1: this is nothing more than they're kind of throwing in

562
00:27:58,320 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 1: the towel. They still had a chance of making the

563
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:01,879
Speaker 1: playoff if they had won this game. This is a

564
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:03,879
Speaker 1: great tune up spot for the four nineers. I think

565
00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:05,920
Speaker 1: they get them here and then they get Arizona. Maybe

566
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:09,000
Speaker 1: it's next week, so the hype will be at the

567
00:28:09,000 --> 00:28:11,840
Speaker 1: all time high. Chat heading into the playoffs. Niners are

568
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 1: still fighting for a two seed. They just need the

569
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 1: Vikings to trip up here against Green Bay. So yeah,

570
00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:19,679
Speaker 1: mean Chad, if we're getting five and a half or

571
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 1: six in the contest, this is an automatic play on

572
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 1: the four nineers here. Uh, just the bizarre, bizarre world

573
00:28:26,400 --> 00:28:28,320
Speaker 1: we're living in where the Raiders just are simply giving

574
00:28:28,400 --> 00:28:30,439
Speaker 1: up with two weeks left, and it's someone that been

575
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,120
Speaker 1: on dere car to lead the league interceptions. I'm pissed.

576
00:28:33,680 --> 00:28:36,919
Speaker 1: I hate that they're doing it, but it's all business.

577
00:28:36,960 --> 00:28:39,240
Speaker 1: Like the owner, he's counting his money. This is a

578
00:28:39,280 --> 00:28:43,400
Speaker 1: business decision. So Jets fans, whoever, whoever's getting their car

579
00:28:43,440 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 1: next year, they should be a static like that is

580
00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,680
Speaker 1: the cold solely ship. I don't know about that spot,

581
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:54,760
Speaker 1: but yeah, there's just it just feels like their car

582
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:57,360
Speaker 1: is gonna go somewhere and that that would be mutually

583
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:00,040
Speaker 1: beneficial for both teams if that's what he does. And

584
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:02,200
Speaker 1: Tom Brady really does go to Vegas, all right, like

585
00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 1: that will all make more sense. But right now I

586
00:29:04,600 --> 00:29:07,400
Speaker 1: don't really get what they're doing. Uh, this Vegas team.

587
00:29:07,480 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 1: So it's a game to me? Where mean, Chad automatic

588
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 1: automatic play anything under seven and contest. Anyone listening to

589
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 1: this play it, how pistor you if you're Davante Adams,

590
00:29:17,440 --> 00:29:21,400
Speaker 1: if they don't end up getting someone like Tom Brady.

591
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:24,880
Speaker 1: How pist are you that Davante Adams went there to

592
00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: go play with his best buddy there a car and

593
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 1: it lasted fourteen games. I said all the time, like

594
00:29:29,960 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 1: history just never stops repeating itself. It's my favorite thing

595
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:35,600
Speaker 1: about life, Like you can fight fate. It is what

596
00:29:35,680 --> 00:29:39,880
Speaker 1: it is. What team in our lifetime is worse at

597
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: bringing in number one receivers. Randy Moss went to there,

598
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:46,480
Speaker 1: left for dead, everyone thought he was dead. Went to

599
00:29:46,520 --> 00:29:49,560
Speaker 1: New England called twenty touchdowns, and Tonio Brown went there,

600
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: leftard dead, charge his feet, went to Tampa, won a

601
00:29:53,280 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Davante Adams where ever he goes next to it,

602
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:58,000
Speaker 1: I will be making a large amount of money, bending

603
00:29:58,000 --> 00:29:59,280
Speaker 1: a large amount of money for them to go to

604
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:02,600
Speaker 1: the Super bowls insane. It really is bizarro world. What's

605
00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 1: going on with them? If you're in the dynasty owner, though,

606
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,360
Speaker 1: I'd keep holding them. If anything, I could see him

607
00:30:07,400 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 1: getting moved because, like I said, their owner is a

608
00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:14,240
Speaker 1: very very cheap man. I want to raise a suggestion

609
00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 1: for big balls better the week, And I can't remember

610
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 1: if we talked about this on Tuesday, but I'm fairly certain.

611
00:30:20,720 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 1: We did Denver Broncos plus twelve and a half against

612
00:30:26,960 --> 00:30:30,880
Speaker 1: the Chiefs. We've talked about this a lot on this podcast.

613
00:30:31,320 --> 00:30:36,920
Speaker 1: There are so many trends for teams that are overrated

614
00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:42,200
Speaker 1: in November and December, overinflated because of their massive winning percentages,

615
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: especially when they're playing teams that have really crappy winning percentages.

616
00:30:47,000 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: I've talked about and which fits into the Broncos and

617
00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:56,920
Speaker 1: the Chiefs, the teams that are the underdogs since two

618
00:30:57,000 --> 00:30:59,760
Speaker 1: thousand and six, team covering it north of a clip

619
00:31:01,400 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Broncos, the tickets

620
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,840
Speaker 1: coming in on the Chiefs. We've got a classic pros

621
00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 1: Joe's here. I don't know, man, how do we ignored it?

622
00:31:10,600 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's a good pro play. It's

623
00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: the same reason I'm betting the Titans tonight. Am I

624
00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,520
Speaker 1: giving out? And am I giving out the Titans? To

625
00:31:16,560 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 1: anyone listening to this show? Hell no, that's truly a

626
00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:22,440
Speaker 1: pro bet. You're just simply playing the numbers of big

627
00:31:22,480 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 1: dogs in December. Yeah, Chack, You're exactly right. That's the

628
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: smart play. It's just I just do not like it.

629
00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:31,880
Speaker 1: I just don't like the mojo of it. I feel

630
00:31:31,880 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 1: like the team is quit completely on Russell Wilson. The

631
00:31:36,280 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 1: only reason I play is because they fired that coach,

632
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:39,880
Speaker 1: and maybe they all hated that head coach that much.

633
00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,080
Speaker 1: But I thought the big balls best how you're gonna

634
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 1: go with is what you brought up on Tuesday of

635
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,720
Speaker 1: a game I really didn't like. But I feel like

636
00:31:45,760 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: you're talking about it and it's the right side. I

637
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,719
Speaker 1: know a couple of pros that love it. The Bucks

638
00:31:49,920 --> 00:31:52,960
Speaker 1: at home catching minus three, minus two and a half,

639
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,320
Speaker 1: that takes balls to me, Like Panthers look good. They

640
00:31:57,320 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 1: look like the best team that division. They just had

641
00:31:59,160 --> 00:32:02,720
Speaker 1: a huge win at home. No one's been Tampa like

642
00:32:02,840 --> 00:32:06,080
Speaker 1: I talked to. I don't know fifteen pros in the

643
00:32:06,160 --> 00:32:09,160
Speaker 1: last twenty four hours. I know one other group chat

644
00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 1: one other group that is placed a single wager on Tampa.

645
00:32:13,120 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 1: So this would truly be an Island play if we

646
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 1: bet this number. Um. Every pro I talked to, for

647
00:32:18,280 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: the most part, they like the three. They liked them

648
00:32:20,280 --> 00:32:22,320
Speaker 1: in teasers Carolina, which I think is a good play

649
00:32:22,400 --> 00:32:25,360
Speaker 1: to teaser tease Carolina. That's a fair tease right there,

650
00:32:25,400 --> 00:32:27,800
Speaker 1: taking them up to nine nine and a half. Because

651
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:29,960
Speaker 1: Tampa is not gonna blow them out. I don't think

652
00:32:30,000 --> 00:32:32,960
Speaker 1: that's gonna happen. But covering this three, covering two and

653
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:34,840
Speaker 1: a half, I just feel like they are like this

654
00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,040
Speaker 1: is a good number. Three and a half. Minus three

655
00:32:37,080 --> 00:32:38,720
Speaker 1: a half I wouldn't do in the contest, but minus

656
00:32:38,760 --> 00:32:41,800
Speaker 1: two and a half, Tom Brady at home, I feel

657
00:32:41,840 --> 00:32:43,880
Speaker 1: like that's a good number. Like they win these ugly

658
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:46,360
Speaker 1: close games by three. That's what Tampa has been this year.

659
00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:50,120
Speaker 1: I don't know. It feels like the same thing with

660
00:32:50,200 --> 00:32:52,200
Speaker 1: us back in Carolina last week. It felt like we

661
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:53,760
Speaker 1: were on island when we did it, and it's the

662
00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:56,400
Speaker 1: same thing with the Bucks this week. It's the Seesaw Playoff.

663
00:32:56,440 --> 00:32:58,720
Speaker 1: We're riding the highs and lows of both these teams.

664
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 1: This is the most point of buying the Tampa camp,

665
00:33:02,480 --> 00:33:05,320
Speaker 1: but this is the lowest time all year we've bought them.

666
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:09,480
Speaker 1: Doesn't get any lower. So if we're talking big balls, Chad,

667
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:11,920
Speaker 1: this feels like this is gonna be a big balls

668
00:33:11,960 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: bet this Tampa team. Do you think betton Tampa is

669
00:33:16,560 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 1: a bigger balls than betting the Broncos again, because Broncos,

670
00:33:22,320 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 1: that's that's a by the book plays play. I see it. Okay,

671
00:33:26,320 --> 00:33:28,160
Speaker 1: I feel like that's a play. I'm I am betting.

672
00:33:28,320 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: I'm right there with you. That was the same reason

673
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,800
Speaker 1: I like the Seahawks. I like the Chiefs. Last week again,

674
00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 1: Seahawks was those nine and a half. Like, once you

675
00:33:35,240 --> 00:33:38,560
Speaker 1: hit that double digit, that's always, like Chad's talk kind

676
00:33:38,560 --> 00:33:40,120
Speaker 1: of talking about it, that's always gonna make me slant

677
00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:42,520
Speaker 1: towards that dog because historically this late in the year,

678
00:33:42,960 --> 00:33:45,360
Speaker 1: a team with the highest high win percentage they have

679
00:33:45,480 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 1: as the Chiefs playing a team as a dogship when

680
00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:51,960
Speaker 1: percentage like the Denver Broncoes, we take that number. Like

681
00:33:52,000 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: the divisional game too, we usually backed that number. It's just,

682
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:58,080
Speaker 1: oh man, I don't know if I could. I don't

683
00:33:58,120 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 1: know if I could force into the contest teen and

684
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,280
Speaker 1: a half. I could be talking, but it's moved down

685
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:06,480
Speaker 1: at twelve and a half. Yeah. I just much rather,

686
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:08,480
Speaker 1: obviously have a thirteen and a half. And that's why

687
00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:09,840
Speaker 1: I don't want to make our big balls. I just

688
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 1: don't want to make the fans of the show better

689
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 1: than a ship number. All right, then let's go with

690
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:18,560
Speaker 1: the Bucks at minus three perfect big balls better the

691
00:34:18,600 --> 00:34:26,080
Speaker 1: week Tampa Bay Boxing Buccaneers minus three. Just to recap

692
00:34:26,120 --> 00:34:30,000
Speaker 1: for people right now, games we are eyeballing for Sunday

693
00:34:30,040 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 1: as we narrow it down to the final five Texans

694
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:37,160
Speaker 1: plus four, maybe plus four and a half Jets, possibly

695
00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:39,680
Speaker 1: if we can get them below two, that'd be nice.

696
00:34:40,120 --> 00:34:44,959
Speaker 1: Potentially we're talking about the Bills, maybe the Bucks minus three.

697
00:34:45,880 --> 00:34:47,919
Speaker 1: I want to throw a couple more games out at

698
00:34:47,960 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 1: you based on the Luck ranking because we talked about

699
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:52,640
Speaker 1: him a lot on this show. We just talked about Denver,

700
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:58,000
Speaker 1: we talked about Green Bay, Minnesota, Indianapolis and the Giants.

701
00:34:59,200 --> 00:35:00,719
Speaker 1: I know, I told you one scares me there, like

702
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,120
Speaker 1: I bet I bet the Giants when it was four

703
00:35:03,160 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 1: and a half, five and a half and five, and

704
00:35:06,000 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 1: I'd still take him at six. I told you, I'm

705
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: just worried the Colts have quit. Like that's the fear

706
00:35:11,640 --> 00:35:14,360
Speaker 1: at this end of the year. Where we talked about

707
00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:16,640
Speaker 1: all last year where I would say I shouldn't say

708
00:35:16,640 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 1: a last year was the final three weeks. I know,

709
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:21,360
Speaker 1: a really smart group that just kept taking the Giants

710
00:35:21,400 --> 00:35:23,680
Speaker 1: because the Giants were getting two or three extra points

711
00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 1: per week then they should have been, and that was

712
00:35:26,120 --> 00:35:28,200
Speaker 1: because they had quit. They didn't cover any of those games,

713
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 1: they just were bad. They'd simply had given up on

714
00:35:30,480 --> 00:35:33,359
Speaker 1: their head coach. Last year, Man did then I look

715
00:35:33,400 --> 00:35:34,799
Speaker 1: like a team that gave up on the red coach.

716
00:35:34,840 --> 00:35:37,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you literally just got embarrassed, had the biggest

717
00:35:37,120 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 1: comeback ever, and you come out and Nick Foles laid

718
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:41,880
Speaker 1: a total egg and this team laid an egg like that.

719
00:35:41,920 --> 00:35:43,719
Speaker 1: At least the defense get played kind of hard against

720
00:35:43,760 --> 00:35:48,000
Speaker 1: the Chargers, but that offense with Nick Foles, Man does

721
00:35:48,040 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 1: not does not look like a team I want to

722
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:51,560
Speaker 1: put any type of money on. So I'm happy with

723
00:35:51,600 --> 00:35:54,799
Speaker 1: my position on the Giants. Um another game where if

724
00:35:54,800 --> 00:35:57,439
Speaker 1: you're scared of the spread, throwing at a teaser could

725
00:35:57,480 --> 00:35:59,279
Speaker 1: goold week. I really do. I get all teasers because

726
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:01,400
Speaker 1: it's not that you're betting like a coward, but a

727
00:36:01,480 --> 00:36:03,359
Speaker 1: little bit you're you're you're kind of throwing two games

728
00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:06,280
Speaker 1: together inside of just bedding it straight. But like these

729
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,480
Speaker 1: the books get so sharp in the year like this,

730
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:10,719
Speaker 1: I like to just take teasers where it's kind of

731
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:12,960
Speaker 1: thrown that out where me and Chad talked about the

732
00:36:13,120 --> 00:36:15,960
Speaker 1: Thunderdogs have not been winning out right like they've been covering,

733
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:19,399
Speaker 1: but this has been the worst run historically since Week

734
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:22,640
Speaker 1: eleven of underdogs winning out right, uh, since bet Labs

735
00:36:22,640 --> 00:36:25,640
Speaker 1: has been tracking the data. So um, another one of

736
00:36:25,680 --> 00:36:28,240
Speaker 1: these games where if you didn't get the good number

737
00:36:28,239 --> 00:36:30,480
Speaker 1: on the Giants, just throwing in a teaser if you're

738
00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 1: scared off by the six But I just I like

739
00:36:33,320 --> 00:36:36,040
Speaker 1: the Giants here and normally, yeah, Chad, if this was

740
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:37,839
Speaker 1: like we always joked about because early in the year,

741
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: no brainer, take the Cults here. But this Colds team

742
00:36:41,600 --> 00:36:43,640
Speaker 1: seems like a team that's given up. And Nick Foles

743
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:46,120
Speaker 1: looks at a quarterback that's been sitting on a team's

744
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 1: bench for a year and a half, barely practicing. Just

745
00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:51,760
Speaker 1: not a good combo, all right, Matt Mitchell is reminding

746
00:36:51,800 --> 00:36:55,279
Speaker 1: me um. I mentioned specifically the luck rankings of sixteen

747
00:36:55,800 --> 00:37:03,360
Speaker 1: differential of sixteen or more, so um this year teams

748
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:09,719
Speaker 1: in those scenarios, the underdogs are the unluckyer team is

749
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: uh covering at a sixty two and a half percent

750
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:19,280
Speaker 1: clip the sixteen plus differentials this week Denver, Kansas City,

751
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,879
Speaker 1: Green Bay in Minnesota, Indian New York in this order,

752
00:37:23,480 --> 00:37:29,080
Speaker 1: New Orleans and Philly, Cleveland and Washington. God damn it.

753
00:37:29,200 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna going against like three of those. You're

754
00:37:31,640 --> 00:37:35,600
Speaker 1: against Green Bay, you're against Indie, you're against New Orleans. Yeah,

755
00:37:35,600 --> 00:37:39,400
Speaker 1: that's not ideal, because these luck rankings are really interesting.

756
00:37:39,520 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 1: Like it's been interesting to me your response to this.

757
00:37:45,000 --> 00:37:48,040
Speaker 1: You're a professional better. There's a lot of sort of

758
00:37:48,040 --> 00:37:51,399
Speaker 1: advanced metrics that you think are pretty gimmicky, but you've

759
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,160
Speaker 1: I feel like you've liked the luck rankings as a

760
00:37:54,320 --> 00:37:58,600
Speaker 1: barter of success in how it's and the effort that

761
00:37:58,760 --> 00:38:03,040
Speaker 1: is put into it. Yeah, because I think a lot

762
00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 1: of gambling comes down to luck and things bouncing your way.

763
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:09,359
Speaker 1: I mean, just last week, me and Chad went from

764
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:10,839
Speaker 1: a three and two week to a two and three

765
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 1: week because the guy missed an extra point. I mean,

766
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 1: it's that slim of a margin to cover these numbers

767
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:19,239
Speaker 1: where you're talking about luck and good luck and bad luck.

768
00:38:19,360 --> 00:38:23,600
Speaker 1: I mean even that Patriots Super Bowl dynasty they had there,

769
00:38:24,520 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 1: they had a lot of really good luck, but they

770
00:38:26,480 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 1: also had crazy bad luck. I mean, Eli Manning, not

771
00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:33,160
Speaker 1: that great of a quarterback, beat them twice. Nick Foles,

772
00:38:33,200 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 1: we just watched him play. People don't get it, but

773
00:38:36,120 --> 00:38:39,160
Speaker 1: it's just one of those things where it's like luck, luck,

774
00:38:39,200 --> 00:38:41,279
Speaker 1: does steer a lot of things. So the reason I

775
00:38:41,320 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: like the rankings so much is because it does shed

776
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:47,640
Speaker 1: light on certain teams. That's like, this team is incredibly lucky,

777
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,719
Speaker 1: Like they've been incredibly lucky this year. I kind of

778
00:38:50,800 --> 00:38:52,160
Speaker 1: gotten to the point though, at this point of the

779
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:55,440
Speaker 1: season where I've used it the other way with the Vikings,

780
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:58,600
Speaker 1: Like we all know how very, very lucky this Vikings

781
00:38:58,640 --> 00:39:01,680
Speaker 1: team is. It's kind of who they are. It was

782
00:39:01,680 --> 00:39:04,200
Speaker 1: the same thing last year with that Bengals team. Like

783
00:39:04,239 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 1: I remember the Bengals team. Every week I had to

784
00:39:06,480 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 1: hear about their d v o A. They were like

785
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 1: the eighteen team d v o A. Overall, they were

786
00:39:10,920 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 1: like the nineteenth defense and the seventeen through offense. Do

787
00:39:14,440 --> 00:39:16,520
Speaker 1: you d v o A? What d v o A

788
00:39:16,520 --> 00:39:18,400
Speaker 1: couldn't factor into That is what we're talking about here,

789
00:39:18,480 --> 00:39:20,840
Speaker 1: the luck ranking, and that Bengals team last year was

790
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 1: very lucky, and they were lucky all season, and we

791
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: saw that plan the I mean their kicker, he was

792
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: automatic last year in the plaoff Now he can't hit

793
00:39:28,960 --> 00:39:30,799
Speaker 1: a kick. That's kind of how it goes from year

794
00:39:30,840 --> 00:39:32,799
Speaker 1: to year with their certain luck for certain teams. So

795
00:39:33,280 --> 00:39:35,359
Speaker 1: that's what I mean in Minnesota. UM, that's the only

796
00:39:35,400 --> 00:39:37,239
Speaker 1: team I could care less about the luck ranking. With

797
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 1: every other team, I think that doesn't matter. Like the Eagles,

798
00:39:40,480 --> 00:39:45,799
Speaker 1: no doubt, have been way luckier than the Saints. UM Colts,

799
00:39:45,840 --> 00:39:48,760
Speaker 1: no doubt they've been an unlucky team. They also suck.

800
00:39:49,080 --> 00:39:50,919
Speaker 1: So it's kind of hard for me at this point

801
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:53,279
Speaker 1: of the the year be like, yeah, they've been unlucky, but

802
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 1: that was unlucky with Matt Ryan. They've downgraded from Matt Ryan.

803
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: I know how that was possible, but they have to

804
00:39:58,400 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 1: Nick Foles. H Um. They're just certain things where I

805
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,000
Speaker 1: do believe in luck ranking, but it's all about Pacific

806
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:07,600
Speaker 1: teams and what their scenario is. So UM, I do

807
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,879
Speaker 1: agree with that that it's a useful tool, and I've

808
00:40:10,960 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 1: used it all year. I'm not gonna lie like I

809
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 1: always check it, especially on Sunday morning after I made

810
00:40:15,239 --> 00:40:17,399
Speaker 1: my bets. I just like to know that I'm lined

811
00:40:17,480 --> 00:40:20,280
Speaker 1: up right with certain teams where if I'm taking underdog,

812
00:40:20,360 --> 00:40:23,480
Speaker 1: especially at home dog, it makes me feel way better

813
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 1: when the publics all over the road favorite and I'm

814
00:40:26,480 --> 00:40:29,120
Speaker 1: getting really good luck ranking where it's like that home Dog,

815
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,960
Speaker 1: they've been super unlucky, that road team that's the favorite,

816
00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,080
Speaker 1: very lucky. It's been very profitable from this year. Like

817
00:40:35,239 --> 00:40:36,920
Speaker 1: it's not the end all be all, but those are

818
00:40:36,920 --> 00:40:38,200
Speaker 1: a couple of things that I look for to match

819
00:40:38,280 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 1: up with when I'm making bets. Uh the other game,

820
00:40:43,680 --> 00:40:46,600
Speaker 1: do we have a feeling on Cleveland Washington? Washington is

821
00:40:46,680 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 1: short home favorite. This is the only other game we

822
00:40:48,800 --> 00:40:52,560
Speaker 1: haven't talked about that is sixteen or more. Yeah, I

823
00:40:52,560 --> 00:40:54,640
Speaker 1: don't know. I don't have a strong opinion on this.

824
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,760
Speaker 1: I think the running joke is like the leagues against Washington,

825
00:40:57,880 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 1: so they're gonna fix this for the Browns, which I

826
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 1: don't know. I think the league hates both these teams

827
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:06,919
Speaker 1: right now. I would take Washington because of there the better,

828
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,960
Speaker 1: better team, but I don't know. They just they're they're

829
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,120
Speaker 1: in a tailspin right now, Like I know Carson is

830
00:41:13,160 --> 00:41:16,640
Speaker 1: the starter, and I just don't really know what to

831
00:41:16,640 --> 00:41:18,360
Speaker 1: do with this one. Brother. So to me, this is

832
00:41:18,360 --> 00:41:20,479
Speaker 1: one of those games where I'll just end up either

833
00:41:20,560 --> 00:41:22,799
Speaker 1: taking Washington or pass and I just I just went

834
00:41:22,960 --> 00:41:25,680
Speaker 1: back Watson. He just hasn't looked right since coming back

835
00:41:25,760 --> 00:41:30,640
Speaker 1: off that long layoff, so um bros. I could see

836
00:41:30,640 --> 00:41:33,160
Speaker 1: them coming in on Washington. Uh, Washington this day is

837
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:35,839
Speaker 1: under three, but as soon as it touched three, I'd

838
00:41:35,840 --> 00:41:37,960
Speaker 1: probably bet the Browns. Like there are two bad teams,

839
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:40,799
Speaker 1: I'll take the plus three with whatever the worst the

840
00:41:40,840 --> 00:41:44,200
Speaker 1: worst team is. But um Man just just one of

841
00:41:44,200 --> 00:41:46,200
Speaker 1: those that that's wun't gonna make my top fifteen and

842
00:41:46,239 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 1: bet and it's probably the last game I bet. What

843
00:41:48,640 --> 00:41:51,480
Speaker 1: about the last one on the board. Uh, And this

844
00:41:51,600 --> 00:41:54,440
Speaker 1: is the other one is Houston Jacksonville, which we've discussed,

845
00:41:55,040 --> 00:42:00,640
Speaker 1: Chicago and Detroit. Um Bears are about six wenk Dogs

846
00:42:01,880 --> 00:42:05,440
Speaker 1: Lions need to win. A lot of evidence and stats

847
00:42:05,440 --> 00:42:07,840
Speaker 1: and again I'll reference Raybund and Stucky in inn Action

848
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:12,080
Speaker 1: Network pod. We've talked about late season over inflation. We

849
00:42:12,160 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: just talked about it with Kansas City. Stuckey had a

850
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:18,520
Speaker 1: really interesting stat. You narrow it down even further and

851
00:42:18,560 --> 00:42:21,400
Speaker 1: talk about teams that are eliminated versus teams that have

852
00:42:21,400 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 1: a chance to get in. The inflation is just as great.

853
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:28,120
Speaker 1: And that's this. That's the scenario with Detroit and Chicago,

854
00:42:28,840 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 1: which I talk all the time. That next week, plead,

855
00:42:32,560 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 1: for the love of God, don't just blindly better team

856
00:42:34,760 --> 00:42:36,759
Speaker 1: because they need a game against a team that does

857
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:38,800
Speaker 1: not need the game. I mean, some of these guys

858
00:42:38,840 --> 00:42:41,840
Speaker 1: love playing spoilers. It's the two only two teams right

859
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:44,200
Speaker 1: now that I believe have quit, and that could be

860
00:42:44,280 --> 00:42:46,640
Speaker 1: changed this week where if Dever shows up against the Chiefs,

861
00:42:46,960 --> 00:42:48,799
Speaker 1: that might have been just about their head coach. But

862
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 1: Denver and the Colts, those are two teams I've think

863
00:42:51,320 --> 00:42:54,480
Speaker 1: quit and now the Raiders can be added to that list. Um,

864
00:42:54,640 --> 00:42:57,480
Speaker 1: that's something to be aware of with certain teams heading

865
00:42:57,480 --> 00:43:00,160
Speaker 1: these last two weeks. The Bears have not it. I

866
00:43:00,200 --> 00:43:02,839
Speaker 1: mean that was just I don't know, I'm not bad

867
00:43:02,920 --> 00:43:04,799
Speaker 1: luck lass game, but they were in it. I mean

868
00:43:04,840 --> 00:43:07,439
Speaker 1: it was ten to eight, they complete late an egg

869
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 1: in the second half. I got blown out by the Bills.

870
00:43:09,880 --> 00:43:11,160
Speaker 1: I don't know, chat I probably I don't know what

871
00:43:11,200 --> 00:43:12,600
Speaker 1: to do with this one because I want to take

872
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:16,200
Speaker 1: the Bears. The fear here is the Troy gets right

873
00:43:16,200 --> 00:43:19,200
Speaker 1: against that defense and they just poured on. You got

874
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:24,160
Speaker 1: golf indoors. His outside weapons are healthy. We've seen the connection.

875
00:43:24,680 --> 00:43:26,560
Speaker 1: I look at this game where it's like I'm sure

876
00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 1: stuck here. One of those guys is on the six.

877
00:43:28,760 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 1: I just I just don't have the confidence betting it.

878
00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:32,640
Speaker 1: But that does feel like the right side where that's

879
00:43:32,640 --> 00:43:34,799
Speaker 1: an inflated line, like you just said, probably should before

880
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 1: and a half, just up to six now because most

881
00:43:36,880 --> 00:43:38,880
Speaker 1: people are visioning this Bears team is quitting on the season.

882
00:43:39,800 --> 00:43:42,040
Speaker 1: One other game that Matt Mitchell just picked us about

883
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,800
Speaker 1: early in the week, we talked about Miami at plus

884
00:43:45,840 --> 00:43:49,840
Speaker 1: three if it got there. Any strong feelings on that game.

885
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:53,439
Speaker 1: That line is currently at plus three. Chat, we don't

886
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:54,960
Speaker 1: have a choice. Another game, we have a choice. We

887
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 1: bet Teddy. Teddy covers as a dog. We just bet them.

888
00:43:58,920 --> 00:44:02,319
Speaker 1: We take the plus there. I don't know. It's a

889
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:05,760
Speaker 1: tough one because Miami is just the better team they got.

890
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:08,319
Speaker 1: They got the better skill players. It's crazy to say,

891
00:44:08,360 --> 00:44:09,960
Speaker 1: but they seem like they have the better coaching this

892
00:44:10,000 --> 00:44:13,920
Speaker 1: season all around. I'll take the three with Teddy. If

893
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:15,800
Speaker 1: it's three and a half in our contest, yes, we

894
00:44:15,920 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 1: blindly take it. If it's two and a half, I

895
00:44:17,719 --> 00:44:22,000
Speaker 1: just I probably passed on that one. Yeah, three and

896
00:44:22,000 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 1: a half Miami Divisional game with Teddy. Teddy loves to

897
00:44:26,080 --> 00:44:28,440
Speaker 1: be a dog and he loves to cover. So it's

898
00:44:28,800 --> 00:44:30,520
Speaker 1: a game where if you if you're like us, you

899
00:44:30,560 --> 00:44:33,719
Speaker 1: just love betting these ugly dogs. Ugly dog that we

900
00:44:33,800 --> 00:44:36,920
Speaker 1: will be betting Miami. Last question this is from the

901
00:44:37,080 --> 00:44:40,280
Speaker 1: user I think it was in the AMP chat last

902
00:44:40,360 --> 00:44:43,640
Speaker 1: year we talked about Mike Vrabel as Coach of the Year.

903
00:44:43,719 --> 00:44:46,360
Speaker 1: Simon crushed Coach of the Year last year with Vrabel.

904
00:44:46,920 --> 00:44:49,200
Speaker 1: Do you have any other picks for award winners this

905
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:53,600
Speaker 1: late in the season. That was like a freak scenario though.

906
00:44:53,680 --> 00:44:57,520
Speaker 1: We had the number one seed at plus three fifty

907
00:44:57,560 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 1: to win Coach of the Year and Vrabel and that

908
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:04,680
Speaker 1: was the classic what have you done for me lately?

909
00:45:04,760 --> 00:45:07,799
Speaker 1: Bet where the Bengals had basically upset the Chiefs at home,

910
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,680
Speaker 1: so everyone poured in money on the Bengals head coach

911
00:45:10,760 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 1: to be Coach of the Year, and we got crazy

912
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:14,680
Speaker 1: value on the number one seed in the Titans, where

913
00:45:14,680 --> 00:45:17,319
Speaker 1: I was just like, these writers aren't idiots. They're gonna

914
00:45:17,360 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 1: know that the Titans had a bunch of injuries and

915
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:21,200
Speaker 1: they still somehow became the one seed and that really

916
00:45:21,200 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 1: tough a f C. So this year, like my the

917
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:28,920
Speaker 1: team I would put for Coach of the Year. I

918
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:31,120
Speaker 1: know he's not gonna win it, but it's gotta be Shanahan,

919
00:45:31,360 --> 00:45:35,080
Speaker 1: like Trey Lance went down and what was that week

920
00:45:35,120 --> 00:45:38,520
Speaker 1: two or three? He somehow navigated that whole Jimmy G.

921
00:45:38,800 --> 00:45:42,280
Speaker 1: Situation of bringing in a guy to replace him still

922
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 1: got him to resign, and then he goes down. He's

923
00:45:45,560 --> 00:45:49,439
Speaker 1: running Rock Pretty and they've only been better. So yeah,

924
00:45:49,480 --> 00:45:51,839
Speaker 1: if I was going to say best value and who

925
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:53,839
Speaker 1: I think should win it this year, and they're gonna

926
00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 1: win their last two games, that's kind of a given.

927
00:45:56,640 --> 00:45:59,520
Speaker 1: They're gonna fish the two seed. I don't like that

928
00:45:59,680 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 1: value in Shanahan. So if people want to know what

929
00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:03,080
Speaker 1: I've sent out the clients when I've been myself, I

930
00:46:03,120 --> 00:46:06,880
Speaker 1: like the Shanahan line of it where he has turned

931
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:09,799
Speaker 1: a team that is very talented, has a ton of

932
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 1: talent on it, but they've been shown up and doing

933
00:46:12,200 --> 00:46:14,480
Speaker 1: it every week. And that Pretty stuff is crazy, Like

934
00:46:14,520 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 1: he's completely not not I'm not even want to say,

935
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,960
Speaker 1: because the offense was already good with Jimmy G. But

936
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,239
Speaker 1: Jimmy G wasn't using all the weapons. Like the whole

937
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: thing of kid Will not getting the touches was very

938
00:46:26,239 --> 00:46:29,600
Speaker 1: weird to me. Pretty is using kittle at a crazy rate,

939
00:46:29,680 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 1: Like he's really using that weapon and that's been really

940
00:46:32,040 --> 00:46:34,319
Speaker 1: good for him. So they know they got it all

941
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,120
Speaker 1: going on there for the four nineers, and if they

942
00:46:36,160 --> 00:46:39,360
Speaker 1: win these last two games, get the two seed. I

943
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,919
Speaker 1: get where people are coming from the Sirianni angle or

944
00:46:42,520 --> 00:46:45,640
Speaker 1: um you know any an, these other coaches they want

945
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 1: to bet. But to me, the best value right now, yeah,

946
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:53,200
Speaker 1: it would be Shanahan. All right, Uh Foxol Texans plus four.

947
00:46:54,120 --> 00:46:56,440
Speaker 1: It's now a four and a half if you can

948
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 1: get it a four and a half. Great, Simon says,

949
00:46:58,800 --> 00:47:00,759
Speaker 1: Vikings plus three and a half. A couple of the

950
00:47:01,239 --> 00:47:04,400
Speaker 1: forward every book, now cha, that's how good our show is. Seriously,

951
00:47:04,640 --> 00:47:09,879
Speaker 1: that's amazing. Simon says, Vikings plus three and a half.

952
00:47:10,000 --> 00:47:11,880
Speaker 1: That was the other day. He said it on the

953
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:15,000
Speaker 1: other day. Because the Simon says, idea is bet it

954
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:16,680
Speaker 1: when he says it, because that line is going to move.

955
00:47:16,800 --> 00:47:19,480
Speaker 1: It's now a three exact decision I bills minus one

956
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:21,319
Speaker 1: and a half. The wise guys are with me. That

957
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 1: number is actually at one right now. So good luck.

958
00:47:24,480 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 1: There are big balls. Bet of the week. I can't

959
00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,000
Speaker 1: believe we're doing it. Temp big bucks and years minus

960
00:47:28,040 --> 00:47:32,480
Speaker 1: three against the Panthers. Time for some Scooch Roulette. When

961
00:47:32,520 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 1: all hope is lost, all that's left is relief. Well,

962
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:44,520
Speaker 1: let's play Scoots Roulette. I got mine. I'm so excited

963
00:47:44,560 --> 00:47:47,839
Speaker 1: about it. Really, I'm touring because I have three different ones,

964
00:47:48,120 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 1: Like I bet all the same amount on they're all

965
00:47:50,480 --> 00:47:59,520
Speaker 1: pretty even. Who who just needs it? Who's the most desperate? Fuck?

966
00:47:59,560 --> 00:48:02,400
Speaker 1: I hate going with the Jets. Give me Jets minus too,

967
00:48:02,480 --> 00:48:05,080
Speaker 1: whatever it is. I think the Jets minus one and

968
00:48:05,080 --> 00:48:08,960
Speaker 1: a half. Right now, Jet Milman has decided he's going

969
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:13,560
Speaker 1: with the Broncos plus twelve and a half. Yeah, I

970
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:17,120
Speaker 1: just it. It makes too much sense. It's weird to

971
00:48:17,200 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 1: me that it's not more of a no brainer for us.

972
00:48:22,120 --> 00:48:25,760
Speaker 1: That's fair, Broncos plus twelve. I'm not even nervous about it, Bronco.

973
00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:27,799
Speaker 1: It's almost like when when when we were going with

974
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,160
Speaker 1: the Broncos against the Chiefs a few weeks ago and

975
00:48:30,200 --> 00:48:33,720
Speaker 1: they were down nothing. Never got nervous, never nervous moment.

976
00:48:34,239 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 1: That's what they call me. Dog your dog, your dog

977
00:48:40,800 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 1: blocks dog, money line run Robin Saints. Yeah, I don't

978
00:48:47,560 --> 00:48:50,040
Speaker 1: mind that. Throw the Saints and even though I would

979
00:48:50,080 --> 00:48:53,040
Speaker 1: truly be shocked if they went back to back throwing

980
00:48:53,080 --> 00:48:58,000
Speaker 1: the Texans. Those are our guys. Give me a Minnesota,

981
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 1: Minnesota Kings. I mean, there's a couple here I like,

982
00:49:03,440 --> 00:49:07,399
Speaker 1: um like Carolina, even though I'm all over Tampa here,

983
00:49:08,480 --> 00:49:12,400
Speaker 1: I just feel like Carolina playing for the division here.

984
00:49:12,440 --> 00:49:16,759
Speaker 1: That's a that's a fair price plus money line. How

985
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:19,480
Speaker 1: about the Colts. Do you think they're gonna they're gonna

986
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:23,440
Speaker 1: beat the Giants outright? I could so see the Giants

987
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:26,440
Speaker 1: just choking on it. I'll throw that in for you,

988
00:49:27,280 --> 00:49:30,239
Speaker 1: or I would do the Cults. Are the Bears. I'd

989
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:32,920
Speaker 1: rather do Bears much Bears. Let's do they at least

990
00:49:32,960 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 1: have a pulse called justin Fields bear down Chicago Bears.

991
00:49:40,200 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 1: I love all the teams in here. I love the Bears. Obviously.

992
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 1: I'm a huge Texans fan generally because I've always had

993
00:49:46,760 --> 00:49:50,200
Speaker 1: infinity for them. When they were first launching, I went

994
00:49:50,239 --> 00:49:54,080
Speaker 1: down to Houston and spent many many weeks with the

995
00:49:54,120 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 1: Texans as they were sort of going through the first

996
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:58,040
Speaker 1: training camp, the first game. I was there when they

997
00:49:58,040 --> 00:50:02,399
Speaker 1: beat the Cowboys. When we were with the Texas. That's everything, right,

998
00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:05,959
Speaker 1: So money Lion round Robin. We did before we sign

999
00:50:06,040 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 1: off earlier, we asked our live listeners on Ampa question

1000
00:50:10,680 --> 00:50:13,880
Speaker 1: who is the worst QB You've ever been on? We

1001
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 1: got a ton of responses. There were no wrong answers.

1002
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 1: It was a who's who of shitty quarterbacks. We have

1003
00:50:20,719 --> 00:50:24,800
Speaker 1: to select some finalists are murderers row of horrendous qbs.

1004
00:50:24,840 --> 00:50:28,600
Speaker 1: Tibet First, Matt Mitchell, what inspired this question from you?

1005
00:50:29,120 --> 00:50:32,440
Speaker 1: In the last game of the season versus the Jets,

1006
00:50:32,520 --> 00:50:36,759
Speaker 1: the Bill started the third string quarterback. He went ten

1007
00:50:36,880 --> 00:50:39,640
Speaker 1: for twenty three for a hundred and six yards. He

1008
00:50:39,760 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 1: threw three interceptions, He was sacked three times, and he

1009
00:50:42,520 --> 00:50:45,080
Speaker 1: lost a fumble. He threw it. He threw a ten

1010
00:50:45,160 --> 00:50:49,239
Speaker 1: yard out into the stands. The Bills would lose to

1011
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:52,200
Speaker 1: the very old and washed up Mark Brunel and the

1012
00:50:52,280 --> 00:50:56,359
Speaker 1: Jets thirty eight to seven. And that Buffalo quarterback's name

1013
00:50:56,640 --> 00:51:01,120
Speaker 1: was Brian Brohm, who was serving as produced interim head coach.

1014
00:51:01,280 --> 00:51:05,360
Speaker 1: This week in the Citrus Ball, here we go, mattis

1015
00:51:05,360 --> 00:51:13,120
Speaker 1: sending me the five finalists, Tim Rite, Christian Ponder, Jonathan Quinn, Kendall,

1016
00:51:13,200 --> 00:51:18,680
Speaker 1: Hinton Spurgeon, Win, the guy whose name makes you laugh

1017
00:51:18,719 --> 00:51:22,400
Speaker 1: every time as if you were a fourth grade boy. Simon,

1018
00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:24,320
Speaker 1: you go first, Well, my Number one was gonna be

1019
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 1: Nathan Peterman. I mean, I feel like that was the

1020
00:51:25,960 --> 00:51:28,640
Speaker 1: most legendary thing ever be came in and through six

1021
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:32,160
Speaker 1: or seven picks, like that was legendary. I'd put him

1022
00:51:32,160 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: from my number one. Yeah, it's hard to beat Nathan Peterman,

1023
00:51:35,840 --> 00:51:39,399
Speaker 1: but that was like historical. Yeah, from this list i'd

1024
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,880
Speaker 1: probably have I wouldn't choose Kendall Hinton because it was

1025
00:51:42,920 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 1: the easiest one you could possibly have. I'd probably go

1026
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:48,799
Speaker 1: with Christian Ponder. Yeah, it's fair. He got such a

1027
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,799
Speaker 1: cool wife. I really feel like that got one. Oh dude,

1028
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:54,879
Speaker 1: he's totally winning life. First round pick made a ton

1029
00:51:54,920 --> 00:51:58,920
Speaker 1: of money. Florida state guy, but she seems she seems

1030
00:51:58,920 --> 00:52:03,080
Speaker 1: perfectly wonderful. The guy's winning, but not a guy you

1031
00:52:03,080 --> 00:52:06,799
Speaker 1: want to bet on. That's true. Ka Dub, you are

1032
00:52:06,840 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 1: the winner. Please email podcasts at Action network dot com

1033
00:52:12,160 --> 00:52:14,920
Speaker 1: for your prize. This has been the favorite podcast from

1034
00:52:14,960 --> 00:52:17,440
Speaker 1: the Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Noelman. He is

1035
00:52:17,480 --> 00:52:21,840
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter. Producer extraordinaire is Matt Mitchell. Downloaders from Apple

1036
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:25,040
Speaker 1: podcasts from Spotify wherever you get your podcasts, Rate review,

1037
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,319
Speaker 1: subscribe a five stars, say whatever you want, feedback as

1038
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,400
Speaker 1: a gift. Listen all the way through until next time.

1039
00:52:30,080 --> 00:52:39,480
Speaker 1: Who Love You Yeah. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1040
00:52:39,880 --> 00:52:42,920
Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1041
00:52:42,960 --> 00:52:46,480
Speaker 1: help is available. Seven gambler