1 00:00:00,840 --> 00:00:04,000 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 2 00:00:04,040 --> 00:00:06,960 Speaker 1: my co host Matt Miller. Every business day we bring 3 00:00:07,000 --> 00:00:11,560 Speaker 1: you interviews from CEOs, market pros, and Bloomberg experts, along 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: with essential market moving news. Find the Bloomberg Markets podcast 5 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,439 Speaker 1: called Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts, and 6 00:00:18,480 --> 00:00:20,520 Speaker 1: at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 7 00:00:20,960 --> 00:00:23,560 Speaker 2: I want to switch gears and bring in our next 8 00:00:23,560 --> 00:00:26,320 Speaker 2: two guests. Michael McKee, who's here in studio. He's the 9 00:00:26,360 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 2: international economics and Policy correspondent as we know with Bloomberg News. 10 00:00:30,400 --> 00:00:33,560 Speaker 2: And Alice Andre who's are us interest Rates and FX 11 00:00:33,600 --> 00:00:37,159 Speaker 2: reporter with Bloomberg News, joining us on zoom Mike, I 12 00:00:37,200 --> 00:00:39,440 Speaker 2: have to start with you and get your take from 13 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:40,960 Speaker 2: this morning's jobs print. 14 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,440 Speaker 3: Well, it's a pretty good outcome. Put it that way. 15 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:47,720 Speaker 3: It depends on where you sit whether think gets a 16 00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:49,840 Speaker 3: good report or not. For the fan, it's a good 17 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 3: report in the sense that it validates their view that 18 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:56,520 Speaker 3: unemployment would have to rise to bring down inflation and 19 00:00:56,520 --> 00:00:59,960 Speaker 3: that their rate increases would put pressure on the labor market. 20 00:01:00,000 --> 00:01:02,600 Speaker 3: And it does show the labor market is loosening up. 21 00:01:02,800 --> 00:01:05,320 Speaker 3: Unemployment goes up to three point eight percent, seven hundred 22 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,880 Speaker 3: and thirty six thousand people join the labor force. Now, 23 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 3: some of that is probably a senior, a seasonal adjustment issue, 24 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,560 Speaker 3: but it does show people coming back into the labor force, 25 00:01:15,600 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 3: which is what the FED has also been looking for. Now, 26 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:21,840 Speaker 3: if you're a worker who's worried about keeping up with 27 00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 3: inflation with your wages, wages didn't rise as much two 28 00:01:25,280 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 3: tens of a percent. Good news on the inflation side. 29 00:01:28,280 --> 00:01:31,679 Speaker 3: Bad news and keeping up with inflation side. And then 30 00:01:31,720 --> 00:01:35,399 Speaker 3: those who didn't get jobs or who lost their jobs 31 00:01:35,560 --> 00:01:39,280 Speaker 3: and the unemployment went up, it basically not good news either. 32 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 3: So a kind of a mixed report with the numbers, 33 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:44,640 Speaker 3: but in terms of the overall macro economy and the 34 00:01:44,680 --> 00:01:46,640 Speaker 3: Fed outlook, good news, Alie. 35 00:01:46,680 --> 00:01:49,040 Speaker 2: I want to bring you into this conversation break down 36 00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:54,040 Speaker 2: what we're seeing in the bond market reaction to this report. 37 00:01:55,200 --> 00:01:57,840 Speaker 4: I think that overall the bond market is viewing this 38 00:01:58,080 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 4: as a weaker report, which was as expected, but not 39 00:02:02,080 --> 00:02:05,920 Speaker 4: outright weakness. I think that traders are viewing it as 40 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:10,400 Speaker 4: a moderation accelerating. But that's exactly what the FED wants, 41 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 4: you know, they want the labor market to come back 42 00:02:12,600 --> 00:02:16,680 Speaker 4: into better balance. And I think that what the bond 43 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 4: market is saying is that this probably puts the majority 44 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:25,600 Speaker 4: of the FED participants on hold. And I think that 45 00:02:26,240 --> 00:02:29,040 Speaker 4: it also really doesn't take the final hike off of 46 00:02:29,120 --> 00:02:31,440 Speaker 4: the table. And I think that bond yields are reflecting 47 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 4: that today. 48 00:02:32,280 --> 00:02:35,399 Speaker 5: Yeah, initially it was at least a ten basis point 49 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:38,399 Speaker 5: drop in the more policy reactive two year we're back 50 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,560 Speaker 5: to what the down three two basis points right now 51 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,640 Speaker 5: for eighty three. One of the questions I want to ask, 52 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:48,680 Speaker 5: did I miss the boat on rates putting all my 53 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,359 Speaker 5: money in nice, safe treasuries that a really healthy yield. 54 00:02:53,160 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 6: No. 55 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:56,640 Speaker 4: I think you have some time on that. Like I said, 56 00:02:56,680 --> 00:02:58,640 Speaker 4: I think that people think that the Fed's going to 57 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:01,839 Speaker 4: be on hold for a little bit, and I mean, 58 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:03,840 Speaker 4: you know, rates are probably just going to trade a 59 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 4: bit of a range, and they're definitely going to be 60 00:03:06,600 --> 00:03:09,000 Speaker 4: very data dependent. I mean, that's when we're going to 61 00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:11,120 Speaker 4: see big moves is on big data days. You know, 62 00:03:11,160 --> 00:03:14,920 Speaker 4: probably the next one being CPI, and you know you'll 63 00:03:14,919 --> 00:03:17,799 Speaker 4: have your chance. But I think that I think it's 64 00:03:17,800 --> 00:03:21,320 Speaker 4: pretty clear that the economy is not falling into recession. 65 00:03:21,400 --> 00:03:23,440 Speaker 4: And I think that rates are going to stay high 66 00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 4: for a long time. I think that there's been a 67 00:03:26,840 --> 00:03:29,920 Speaker 4: move in the back, you know, further out in like 68 00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:33,840 Speaker 4: June and May Fed funds, and now they're reflecting that 69 00:03:33,960 --> 00:03:37,640 Speaker 4: the first cut'll come in May instead of June. But 70 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,320 Speaker 4: you know, it was kind of a small move. I 71 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:41,840 Speaker 4: think that the thing that you really got to keep 72 00:03:41,840 --> 00:03:44,880 Speaker 4: your eye on is the November Fed Funds, and they're 73 00:03:44,920 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 4: still pricing a very good chance of another hike coming. 74 00:03:47,760 --> 00:03:49,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, we have in this since it's Friday, we have 75 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,680 Speaker 5: a drinking game in the studio. Every time somebody uses 76 00:03:52,720 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 5: the phrase goldilocks, we have another show. Is this goldilocks? 77 00:03:56,920 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 5: Michael McKee, goldilocks? John, thank you. 78 00:04:01,080 --> 00:04:02,640 Speaker 3: I want to see you crawl out of here. 79 00:04:05,040 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 2: You could. 80 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:10,320 Speaker 3: That description is being used on this because it basically is, 81 00:04:11,480 --> 00:04:15,520 Speaker 3: as she said, slowing, which is what the Fed wants 82 00:04:15,560 --> 00:04:19,360 Speaker 3: without crashing. I mean, the economy is still growing and 83 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,200 Speaker 3: we're still adding jobs at a pace above the level 84 00:04:22,279 --> 00:04:27,000 Speaker 3: needed to absorb new entrance to the labor force. So yeah, 85 00:04:27,440 --> 00:04:31,680 Speaker 3: things are pretty much in a fairy tale world. 86 00:04:31,839 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 2: One thing I'm curious about, Mike, is July had two 87 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,480 Speaker 2: more weekend days than June. How does that affect the 88 00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 2: wage print. 89 00:04:39,320 --> 00:04:42,760 Speaker 3: It doesn't affect the wage print. It affects it can 90 00:04:42,960 --> 00:04:46,360 Speaker 3: affect ours work. But the wages are going to be 91 00:04:46,400 --> 00:04:49,159 Speaker 3: based on what you're being paid in the month, in 92 00:04:49,200 --> 00:04:51,279 Speaker 3: the week that includes the twelfth of the month, the 93 00:04:51,279 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 3: pay period that includes the twelfth of the month, which 94 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:55,800 Speaker 3: is very complicated because if you get paid once a month, 95 00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 3: it's the entire month. If you get paid every two weeks, 96 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,520 Speaker 3: it maybe just you know, you get into part of it. 97 00:05:02,560 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 3: And sometimes people aren't included at all if you're a 98 00:05:05,839 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 3: freelancer and you get unusual pay periods, which is one 99 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 3: reason we did not see the SAG after a strike 100 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,039 Speaker 3: show up until this month because some of those people 101 00:05:18,160 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 3: aren't paid on a regular basis. 102 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 2: Also, no coming into this, you wrote a piece on 103 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:25,159 Speaker 2: the team talking about how bonds were at risk for 104 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:28,880 Speaker 2: rally based on what potentially could happen with this August data. 105 00:05:28,920 --> 00:05:31,799 Speaker 2: How do you viewed the direction of the bond market 106 00:05:31,839 --> 00:05:34,320 Speaker 2: and particularly yields and the ten year moving forward in 107 00:05:34,320 --> 00:05:36,240 Speaker 2: the next couple of weeks To your point, because we 108 00:05:36,279 --> 00:05:40,400 Speaker 2: do have that September CPI print on the thirteenth. 109 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:43,920 Speaker 4: Yeah, so, I mean it was a really pretty easy 110 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:45,800 Speaker 4: setup for the bond market today. I mean, all the 111 00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 4: metrics showed most of them. I think there was two 112 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 4: indicators that was one of the S and P globals 113 00:05:51,560 --> 00:05:56,400 Speaker 4: and claims was really the only positive thing for this 114 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 4: payroll report. All the other ones were negative. All the 115 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:01,880 Speaker 4: sad reports, saw the isms, they were all pointing to 116 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:05,560 Speaker 4: a weaker report. And so the setup for the bomb 117 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:07,960 Speaker 4: market was pretty easy. I mean, everybody knew that it 118 00:06:08,000 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 4: was going to rally and then we were going to 119 00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 4: sell off right away. I'm sorry that, yeah, that we 120 00:06:13,200 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 4: were going to sell off right after that. And I 121 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,279 Speaker 4: think that part of it is a function of what 122 00:06:17,320 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 4: we're waiting for on Monday, and we're looking for a 123 00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:21,839 Speaker 4: lot of corporate supply to come into the bomb market, 124 00:06:21,880 --> 00:06:25,640 Speaker 4: and so bond traders are just preparing for that. They're 125 00:06:25,800 --> 00:06:27,760 Speaker 4: either selling because they're going to take down some of 126 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:31,479 Speaker 4: this corporate supply on Tuesday, or you're seeing issuers coming 127 00:06:31,560 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 4: in in ratelacking. So that's part of this pullback today 128 00:06:35,320 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 4: in prices and yields going higher as it as it 129 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 4: moves forward. I think, like I said, we're just going 130 00:06:42,040 --> 00:06:45,760 Speaker 4: to trade the range. I think that they're going to 131 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:47,880 Speaker 4: you know, bond traders are going to part and parcel 132 00:06:48,040 --> 00:06:50,680 Speaker 4: every single piece of data. And one of the pieces 133 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:54,920 Speaker 4: of data that I thought was pretty interesting was yesterday's 134 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:57,600 Speaker 4: Chicago Purchasing Manager's report, and they really don't give you 135 00:06:57,640 --> 00:07:01,440 Speaker 4: a whole lot of information in the report, but what 136 00:07:01,480 --> 00:07:04,240 Speaker 4: you can glean from it was that new orders and 137 00:07:04,279 --> 00:07:11,120 Speaker 4: production moved from contraction to expansion. And also employment, I 138 00:07:11,160 --> 00:07:13,440 Speaker 4: had heard had a very big uptick, and in fact 139 00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 4: it did slow. It did it contracted, but at a 140 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:20,520 Speaker 4: slower rate. And so to me, that just really kind 141 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 4: of gives the same picture of one that the economy 142 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:29,080 Speaker 4: is showing some glimmers of starting to pick up, which 143 00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:31,440 Speaker 4: is what we've been anticipating, that we're going to see 144 00:07:31,440 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 4: a big pickup starting in the second half, and that 145 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 4: that's why people are hoarding their labor and they're just 146 00:07:39,320 --> 00:07:42,280 Speaker 4: using layups as a complete last resort. The other thing 147 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 4: that I wanted to say is that on Monday, the 148 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:50,280 Speaker 4: Dallas SPED Manufacturing Report talked about the fact that they're 149 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,840 Speaker 4: going to most participants think that they're going to raise 150 00:07:54,040 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 4: wages at a rate of five percent this year, and 151 00:07:57,400 --> 00:08:01,160 Speaker 4: so that's far and above inflation and above what we're 152 00:08:01,200 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 4: seeing in average hourly earnings, and so you could get 153 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:08,040 Speaker 4: an uptick in inflation based on wages. Again, and most 154 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,760 Speaker 4: of the FED surveys had talked about this year, even 155 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:14,240 Speaker 4: recent ones, that they're just going to have to continue 156 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:17,760 Speaker 4: to raise wages, you know, first of all to keep 157 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:21,080 Speaker 4: up with the demand that's expected, but also because they 158 00:08:21,200 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 4: just they can't afford to let go of their labor force, 159 00:08:24,200 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 4: so they're just going to have to raise wage. 160 00:08:25,960 --> 00:08:26,120 Speaker 2: Right. 161 00:08:26,680 --> 00:08:28,840 Speaker 4: The other thing was is on that work week. I 162 00:08:28,880 --> 00:08:32,160 Speaker 4: thought that that was pretty consistent with what we've seen 163 00:08:32,200 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 4: from some of the FED surveys, that the uptick in 164 00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:40,360 Speaker 4: the work week was consistent with you know, you put 165 00:08:40,360 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 4: your workers to work doing other things on the factory 166 00:08:44,080 --> 00:08:47,800 Speaker 4: floor or in your shop to keep them busy. 167 00:08:48,080 --> 00:08:51,319 Speaker 5: Right, Mike McKay final thought in twenty seconds. 168 00:08:51,840 --> 00:08:54,319 Speaker 2: Next week, number of FED speakers, Yeah, we have a 169 00:08:54,400 --> 00:08:55,280 Speaker 2: number of five speakers. 170 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 3: We have John Williams, the New York FED President, coming 171 00:08:57,600 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 3: in here to Bloomberg and we'll get their views. But 172 00:09:00,280 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 3: I think this kind of unless we get on the 173 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:07,439 Speaker 3: thirteenth of September a really surprising CPI report, is probably locks. 174 00:09:07,200 --> 00:09:09,840 Speaker 5: In a pause. The FED does not have to raise. 175 00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:11,560 Speaker 5: It doesn't make the case for raising at this. 176 00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:15,360 Speaker 2: Point, right, So John Williams next week. Former Fed official 177 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:17,800 Speaker 2: Jim Bullard also on the calendar, as well as Susan Collins, 178 00:09:17,800 --> 00:09:22,160 Speaker 2: So Michael McKee, International Economics and Policy correspondent with Bloomberg News, 179 00:09:22,280 --> 00:09:24,840 Speaker 2: and Alice andre Us, Interest rate in FX reporter with 180 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 2: Bloomberg News. 181 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,640 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tenth Can't Live program Bloomberg Markets 182 00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 7: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the 183 00:09:33,880 --> 00:09:37,000 Speaker 7: iHeartRadio app and the Bloomberg Business App, or listen on 184 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:39,040 Speaker 7: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 185 00:09:39,840 --> 00:09:43,040 Speaker 2: Continuing the fund. So I'm glad you gave us an 186 00:09:43,080 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 2: update obviously on what's going on with those bond yields, 187 00:09:46,160 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 2: especially when you're looking at the ten year as well 188 00:09:47,960 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 2: as the two year. But who better to break us 189 00:09:50,320 --> 00:09:53,520 Speaker 2: down when we're looking at what's happening in the fixed 190 00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:56,880 Speaker 2: income market than Ben Emmon's head of fixed income at 191 00:09:56,920 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 2: New Edge Wealth, who I've known for a long time, 192 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:01,200 Speaker 2: joining us to talk to It is also about how 193 00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:03,839 Speaker 2: markets are responding to this latest jobs report, but it's 194 00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:06,680 Speaker 2: always a pleasure speaking with you. Let's start off with 195 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 2: your take on this morning's jobs report and your sort 196 00:10:09,480 --> 00:10:12,160 Speaker 2: of view on how this could impact the fixed income 197 00:10:12,200 --> 00:10:15,160 Speaker 2: market ahead of the feed decision on September twentieth. 198 00:10:16,760 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 8: I just hi, John, Happy, happy, happy labor jobs day. 199 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:24,520 Speaker 2: Right, thanks for joining us on a quieter day here heading. 200 00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,520 Speaker 8: Day we can. Yeah, and I'm all casual here. I'm 201 00:10:27,559 --> 00:10:31,560 Speaker 8: seeing myself streaming live on YouTube. You know, anguel shared 202 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:35,240 Speaker 8: in California. But you know, let's do it. So I 203 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:38,240 Speaker 8: kind of echo Mike McKee's points, like, you know, this 204 00:10:38,400 --> 00:10:41,280 Speaker 8: is a job support where if you're seeing that many 205 00:10:41,320 --> 00:10:43,560 Speaker 8: people getting pulled into the labor force, which is like 206 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,640 Speaker 8: seven hundred and thirty thousand or so, it tells you 207 00:10:46,720 --> 00:10:49,959 Speaker 8: that the that the labor market is spokeled in demand 208 00:10:50,080 --> 00:10:52,319 Speaker 8: from people wanting to be to get back to work 209 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 8: to try to make more money. And that's good for 210 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:59,760 Speaker 8: the economy, right, that's productivity. That's actually a very positive 211 00:11:00,080 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 8: and so it is an interesting reaction to bomb market. 212 00:11:03,240 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 8: How the number came out, it was sort of in 213 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:08,720 Speaker 8: line the headline and then people go through the details 214 00:11:08,760 --> 00:11:11,280 Speaker 8: to see like, yeah, there's loosing of the labor market here. 215 00:11:11,280 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 8: That's what the Fed wants. So the yields on the 216 00:11:13,400 --> 00:11:16,880 Speaker 8: short end two year go down. But then as we 217 00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,520 Speaker 8: go on a little bit in the session, you see 218 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:21,400 Speaker 8: long term indistry started a rise a little bit and 219 00:11:21,400 --> 00:11:23,520 Speaker 8: it said ICEM date that just came out, which was 220 00:11:23,559 --> 00:11:25,959 Speaker 8: a bit stronger than expected. But the employment component in 221 00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,960 Speaker 8: there too better and expected as well as prices paid. 222 00:11:29,360 --> 00:11:31,719 Speaker 8: You see this shift in the YEL curve with long 223 00:11:31,840 --> 00:11:34,440 Speaker 8: rates going up, and I think you take the payroll 224 00:11:34,440 --> 00:11:38,079 Speaker 8: support and ICM together, it tells you like, there's not 225 00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 8: a weakening economy. This is just more people coming into 226 00:11:41,640 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 8: labor force, so loose a labor market. But the FED 227 00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:46,959 Speaker 8: is looking for. On the other hand, you know the 228 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:50,640 Speaker 8: soft landing no recession scenario stays in place, and this 229 00:11:50,760 --> 00:11:53,400 Speaker 8: is why you're getting this steepening of the yel curve 230 00:11:54,040 --> 00:11:55,839 Speaker 8: on both the shorter end of the yl curve and 231 00:11:55,920 --> 00:11:58,880 Speaker 8: the longer hand. So that's I think very goldilocks moment. 232 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:03,160 Speaker 5: Are called Billy And you know about our drinking game 233 00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:08,400 Speaker 5: here this you're guests to say Goldie lockskepally as far 234 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:13,520 Speaker 5: as inflationary components, how much bargaining power to workers have 235 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:14,960 Speaker 5: over employers? 236 00:12:16,760 --> 00:12:20,319 Speaker 8: Yeah, they still do, John, because I think that the 237 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,719 Speaker 8: the weaighte trackers from the Atlanta fats still show a 238 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,959 Speaker 8: big difference between those who can quit their job and 239 00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:29,840 Speaker 8: those who stay in the job, for example, and meaning 240 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:32,079 Speaker 8: people quit their job to try to find, you know, 241 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:36,880 Speaker 8: better paying jobs. That's still a difference there. You also 242 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:40,160 Speaker 8: could think of that the job openings ratio to employment 243 00:12:40,240 --> 00:12:43,839 Speaker 8: that's still elevated to pre pandemic also indicates right that 244 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,959 Speaker 8: you know, companies are still actively looking for positions to 245 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:51,560 Speaker 8: be filled, but all of those metrics have moderated from 246 00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:55,199 Speaker 8: the real elevated level. So these strikes that we're talking about, 247 00:12:55,280 --> 00:12:58,080 Speaker 8: and these these weight settlements that were going through currently, 248 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:02,360 Speaker 8: it does show that labor is really having control here. 249 00:13:03,120 --> 00:13:07,559 Speaker 8: Nowaw strike actually happens, it would be a negative for 250 00:13:07,679 --> 00:13:10,599 Speaker 8: the economy. So it just looked like they want to 251 00:13:10,640 --> 00:13:13,440 Speaker 8: try to get bargaining to a better deal. I would 252 00:13:13,520 --> 00:13:15,599 Speaker 8: point that though, that this, if this leads to a 253 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:18,360 Speaker 8: real good deal for the workers, there's a little bit 254 00:13:18,360 --> 00:13:20,840 Speaker 8: of that seventies idea of better than bargaining. Right, one 255 00:13:20,960 --> 00:13:23,439 Speaker 8: union wins a good agreement, other unions to try to 256 00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 8: do the same thing. So I think we'll say a 257 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 8: little bit in that dynamic one thing. 258 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 2: I've been thinking a lot about ben is just the 259 00:13:31,400 --> 00:13:33,319 Speaker 2: ten year in relation to or the S and P 260 00:13:33,480 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 2: five hundred is trading. So say, earlier in August, we 261 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:41,840 Speaker 2: did see the ten year peak out around four thirty three. 262 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:43,839 Speaker 2: If you looked at where it peaked out back in 263 00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:45,880 Speaker 2: last autumn, it was around four to twenty two. But 264 00:13:45,960 --> 00:13:48,160 Speaker 2: at that time the S and P five hundred was 265 00:13:48,160 --> 00:13:52,600 Speaker 2: trading around thirty five hundred. Now it's one thousand points higher. 266 00:13:52,920 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 2: What's the difference. 267 00:13:56,040 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 8: I think the difference one is just the economy in itself, 268 00:13:59,559 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 8: just that at that moment in time we had much 269 00:14:02,640 --> 00:14:06,959 Speaker 8: higher inflation and not growing as fast as you currently. 270 00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 8: This year turned out to be an economy that's just 271 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 8: much better than last year, even though last years still 272 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 8: looked like I guess if you came in in early 273 00:14:14,960 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 8: twenty twenty two is a really boom pandemic economy. But 274 00:14:18,640 --> 00:14:20,800 Speaker 8: in fact, actually we have a batter economy this year. 275 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 8: So I think that explains the thousand points differences. In 276 00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:27,120 Speaker 8: addition to that, we obviously have earnings that have not 277 00:14:27,880 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 8: gone to do any recession. If anything, they actually showed 278 00:14:30,760 --> 00:14:33,680 Speaker 8: some bottoming in that fall period and they've actually moved 279 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 8: up higher. And the projection is still higher. That makes 280 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,520 Speaker 8: it also the difference. Lastly, well, the thing you're topping 281 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 8: out of at full point three and change, just like 282 00:14:43,040 --> 00:14:45,400 Speaker 8: we had this month. I think it does tell you 283 00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:48,880 Speaker 8: a story about this inflation being very successful by the 284 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:52,160 Speaker 8: Federal Reserve, both on inflation and now also showing up 285 00:14:52,200 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 8: in the labor data. I think that too expresses itself 286 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:59,280 Speaker 8: into this higher stock market, showing that one we can 287 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:03,160 Speaker 8: keep pricing, we don't have wages really spiring out of control. 288 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 8: We certainly don't have any recession here term given the 289 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:08,000 Speaker 8: strength of the labor market. So I think that just 290 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:11,560 Speaker 8: leads you to this conclusion that you're having a stock 291 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:13,480 Speaker 8: market being better because of a better economy. 292 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:16,200 Speaker 2: So what's the level on the tenure that you're watching 293 00:15:16,280 --> 00:15:19,400 Speaker 2: to where other asset classes would need to reprice, including 294 00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:21,960 Speaker 2: the stock market depending on where it would be headed, say, 295 00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 2: would it be four to five? 296 00:15:25,040 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 8: Yeah, it could be. You know, it's kind of signing 297 00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:30,080 Speaker 8: boss Bill grows like it was the other day on TV, 298 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:32,920 Speaker 8: and kind of agree with him, like, there's still that 299 00:15:33,080 --> 00:15:35,400 Speaker 8: risk at it. You have four point five as a 300 00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,120 Speaker 8: level where if you do break that or test set 301 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:43,200 Speaker 8: that we're getting a different situation because there's another aspect 302 00:15:43,280 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 8: here happening. That is that the economy is strong because 303 00:15:46,640 --> 00:15:49,440 Speaker 8: we were investing in the economy with infrastructure out of 304 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:53,480 Speaker 8: projects and just business spending itself. But we're also borrowing 305 00:15:53,520 --> 00:15:56,480 Speaker 8: there for a lot of money, right, and that will 306 00:15:56,560 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 8: continue that could actually keep rates at least higher or 307 00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:02,960 Speaker 8: potentially test that level of four and a half, So 308 00:16:03,040 --> 00:16:05,640 Speaker 8: that we do want to watch. Despite a little bit 309 00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:09,040 Speaker 8: of a rally down now from the last high, you know, 310 00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 8: just seeing it this morning, the ism data being just 311 00:16:12,320 --> 00:16:15,480 Speaker 8: surprisingly a bit stronger, Price's Bay component goes up a 312 00:16:15,520 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 8: little bit, and then you yields immediately moves up from 313 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:21,320 Speaker 8: four point oh seven to four point fifteen. That you know, 314 00:16:21,440 --> 00:16:23,560 Speaker 8: that seems like an inter they move, but it's it 315 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:26,640 Speaker 8: does signify this idea of yeah, is in the economy 316 00:16:26,680 --> 00:16:30,240 Speaker 8: that stays strong, be wary of how inflation could return 317 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:32,760 Speaker 8: and higher again if it stays that strong. 318 00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:38,800 Speaker 5: So September off the table. What's in play at this 319 00:16:38,920 --> 00:16:40,320 Speaker 5: point before the Federal Reserve? 320 00:16:41,600 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 8: I think markets John F f calculated that the Fed 321 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 8: needs a bit more time to assess this economy. Therefore, 322 00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,920 Speaker 8: another meeting could be skipped, even though none of the 323 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,760 Speaker 8: FAT members actually has indicated any of that. By the 324 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:57,080 Speaker 8: way it's it's it still seems to be much of 325 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:01,040 Speaker 8: a live meeting. Therefore, all the data that we're getting 326 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 8: right up to that meeting will count in that decision. 327 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,639 Speaker 8: But it seems that as we had several data points 328 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 8: a bit soft on labor and inflation trending sort of sideways, 329 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:16,040 Speaker 8: that there's a possibility that the FAT said, okay, we 330 00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 8: can skip another meeting to assess a longer period of 331 00:17:18,760 --> 00:17:22,280 Speaker 8: data and then make our next decision. That seems right, 332 00:17:22,840 --> 00:17:24,920 Speaker 8: But we got to keep in mind that what's happening 333 00:17:24,960 --> 00:17:27,399 Speaker 8: in energy markets and what's happening also with China in 334 00:17:27,520 --> 00:17:29,919 Speaker 8: terms of it's all its efforts to try to boost 335 00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,439 Speaker 8: its economy in the third fourth quarter, and on our 336 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 8: third quarter, GDP is actually kicking off better. And now 337 00:17:36,960 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 8: that I think we have to keep in mind that 338 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:42,320 Speaker 8: the FAT may well use the settement meeting to hike 339 00:17:42,440 --> 00:17:42,880 Speaker 8: after all. 340 00:17:43,960 --> 00:17:46,159 Speaker 2: So with the backdrop of all this, how are you 341 00:17:46,320 --> 00:17:49,280 Speaker 2: advising clients to position in the fixed income market? 342 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 8: So most of this year just we have been a 343 00:17:53,760 --> 00:17:56,480 Speaker 8: shorter duration in the index, and that proved to be 344 00:17:56,600 --> 00:18:00,399 Speaker 8: the right way because I judged that base upon the 345 00:18:00,520 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 8: economy's resilience and strength. But then you want to what 346 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 8: I say, follow the you curve. So if it's still 347 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,879 Speaker 8: an inverted you curve, if we continue to see this 348 00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:13,359 Speaker 8: sort of grinding loosening of the mark of the labor 349 00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:17,600 Speaker 8: market and this this inflation on inflation front go on, 350 00:18:17,960 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 8: I continue, I would think that the UK would start 351 00:18:20,680 --> 00:18:23,840 Speaker 8: to normalize. And so the real good position to be 352 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 8: in is that intermediate part of the you curve. And 353 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:29,840 Speaker 8: then ultimately, if we do get up in a situation 354 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 8: where employment rate is at four percent and inflation is 355 00:18:33,040 --> 00:18:35,440 Speaker 8: a little lower, that you can extenduration further. So I 356 00:18:35,520 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 8: think the intermediate part of you curve that that's what 357 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:38,639 Speaker 8: we've been advising to clients. 358 00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:40,960 Speaker 2: Hey, Bin, we only have about thirty seconds left. What's 359 00:18:40,960 --> 00:18:42,840 Speaker 2: the top question you hear from your clients? 360 00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:46,800 Speaker 8: Well, how high can rates go and how high do 361 00:18:46,880 --> 00:18:49,720 Speaker 8: they stay? And that's definitely on the top of mind. 362 00:18:49,960 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 8: You know that, and I think that will continue to 363 00:18:52,400 --> 00:18:54,800 Speaker 8: be a debate. You know, we don't know how high 364 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:58,560 Speaker 8: it will actually go from here, and I think that's 365 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,760 Speaker 8: an uncertainty going into twenty twenty four. 366 00:19:01,359 --> 00:19:03,800 Speaker 2: Well, Ben, thanks so much for joining us. Ben Emans 367 00:19:04,200 --> 00:19:07,199 Speaker 2: head of fixed income at New Edge Wealth, joining us 368 00:19:07,320 --> 00:19:09,880 Speaker 2: on a slower trading day a little bit. 369 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:13,000 Speaker 7: Here, you're listening to the tape Can's our live program, 370 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 7: Bloomberg Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, 371 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,920 Speaker 7: the tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg 372 00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:23,040 Speaker 7: Business App. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa 373 00:19:23,160 --> 00:19:26,440 Speaker 7: from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play 374 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 7: Bloomberg eleven thirty. 375 00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,359 Speaker 2: I want to get straight to our next guest, I mean, John, 376 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 2: You know, we've been talking about the jobs report all morning, 377 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:37,720 Speaker 2: but I want to bring in Julia Pollock, who's joining 378 00:19:37,800 --> 00:19:40,160 Speaker 2: us on zoom. She's the chief US economist at ZIP 379 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,920 Speaker 2: Recruiter who's going to break down some of these job numbers. 380 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:44,800 Speaker 2: So we've gotten the sort of the service level take 381 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:47,560 Speaker 2: here from the macro side of things, but I wanted 382 00:19:47,600 --> 00:19:49,320 Speaker 2: to get more of your thoughts when you're looking from 383 00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:53,640 Speaker 2: an industry level in the job market, what particular corners 384 00:19:53,720 --> 00:19:55,920 Speaker 2: are holding up better than others at this point. 385 00:19:58,480 --> 00:20:01,439 Speaker 9: Sure, so we've seen the job makes sort of shift 386 00:20:01,640 --> 00:20:06,720 Speaker 9: back to normal, with healthcare and professional business services leading 387 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 9: the way. This is an interesting report because it really 388 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 9: shows you very clearly what's happening in certain industries. 389 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:16,080 Speaker 10: We saw. 390 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:20,640 Speaker 9: Truck transportation lose more than thirty six thousand jobs. That's 391 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 9: largely results of yellow freight, that that business's closure. We 392 00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,879 Speaker 9: also see signs of the Hollywood strike in this report, 393 00:20:28,960 --> 00:20:32,080 Speaker 9: with more than sixteen thousand jobs lost in the movie industry. 394 00:20:33,040 --> 00:20:36,120 Speaker 9: So you know, you really get a very granular look 395 00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:39,239 Speaker 9: in this report at how differently things are playing out 396 00:20:39,240 --> 00:20:40,040 Speaker 9: in different industries. 397 00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,440 Speaker 5: Okay, so what does this mean for the panther A 398 00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:45,000 Speaker 5: head for the federal reservist as far as the indust rates. 399 00:20:46,840 --> 00:20:48,719 Speaker 9: So you know, I would liken this report to an 400 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:53,239 Speaker 9: aircraft sort of cruising at the perfect cruising altitude. If 401 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:54,400 Speaker 9: a plane goes too high. 402 00:20:54,600 --> 00:20:57,320 Speaker 5: You know, got you know when you say goldielocks, we 403 00:20:57,840 --> 00:20:58,840 Speaker 5: that's our drinking game. 404 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:01,040 Speaker 2: So every time I guess, so we're keeping a talent. 405 00:21:03,359 --> 00:21:04,760 Speaker 5: That's a new metaphor. I like that one. 406 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:06,200 Speaker 9: Here's a new one exactly. 407 00:21:07,640 --> 00:21:07,840 Speaker 8: Yeah. 408 00:21:08,560 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 9: I was worried that perhaps the long and variable lag 409 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:16,040 Speaker 9: of monetary policy would would start to squeeze too much 410 00:21:16,720 --> 00:21:21,440 Speaker 9: air out of the room and choke growth. And it 411 00:21:21,560 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 9: doesn't appear that that's happening yet. This slave market appears 412 00:21:24,880 --> 00:21:30,040 Speaker 9: to be running at a sustainable, solid pace that is 413 00:21:30,400 --> 00:21:33,080 Speaker 9: not going to fuel inflation, but that is going to 414 00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,040 Speaker 9: continue creating opportunity for workers. 415 00:21:35,280 --> 00:21:37,320 Speaker 2: We did see earlier this week, we also had, as 416 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,280 Speaker 2: you know, the Jolt stata that came out that did 417 00:21:39,320 --> 00:21:41,480 Speaker 2: show that US job openings did decline to the lowest 418 00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,720 Speaker 2: level since early twenty twenty one. What are you sing 419 00:21:44,800 --> 00:21:46,639 Speaker 2: when it comes to some of the quit rates. 420 00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:52,200 Speaker 9: Yeah, So this report suggests that FED chair Waller was 421 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,240 Speaker 9: right that high interest rates would slow the labor market, 422 00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:58,320 Speaker 9: but because there was so much excess demand, that slowing 423 00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,560 Speaker 9: would come in the form of fall job openings, not 424 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:06,280 Speaker 9: of falling employment. And that's still what we're seeing. The 425 00:22:06,359 --> 00:22:08,560 Speaker 9: labor market does appear to have come pretty much all 426 00:22:08,600 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 9: the way back to normal when you look at just 427 00:22:10,400 --> 00:22:13,800 Speaker 9: sort of the labor market dynamics, the quits rate is 428 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:16,520 Speaker 9: all the way back to normal. Online job postings on 429 00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,439 Speaker 9: zib Regruter are all the way back to normal. Jalt's 430 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:21,600 Speaker 9: openings are still high, but they lag a little bit 431 00:22:21,680 --> 00:22:24,359 Speaker 9: and they may also be a little inflated for a 432 00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 9: number of reasons. 433 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,560 Speaker 5: Do you see evidence there of what do we call 434 00:22:28,640 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 5: it labor hoarding where especially small businesses that had such 435 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:37,000 Speaker 5: a difficult time at least according to the NFIB statistics, 436 00:22:37,800 --> 00:22:41,200 Speaker 5: finding qualified workers. They just hanging on to the people 437 00:22:41,280 --> 00:22:42,080 Speaker 5: that they have right now. 438 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:47,639 Speaker 9: You know, there are a few industries, very unique, peculiar industries, 439 00:22:47,960 --> 00:22:53,080 Speaker 9: where employers are hoarding labor that is relatively idle. The 440 00:22:53,200 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 9: examples I could give are things like consulting companies your 441 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:02,400 Speaker 9: Baines and McKenzie's. With the tech industry entering this year 442 00:23:02,560 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 9: of efficiency, tech companies are not paying for management consultants 443 00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:11,840 Speaker 9: to come in and run all kinds of projects for them, 444 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:14,400 Speaker 9: and as a result, you have all these Ivy League 445 00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:19,000 Speaker 9: educated consultants sitting there watching Netflix with very very few 446 00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:23,720 Speaker 9: projects to work on. That's a rare case in normal 447 00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:27,720 Speaker 9: industries across America, when workers are idle, they get furloughed 448 00:23:27,760 --> 00:23:30,679 Speaker 9: or laid off. That's not happening in some of these 449 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:35,359 Speaker 9: organizations because they worry about the long term impacts. You know, 450 00:23:35,400 --> 00:23:37,159 Speaker 9: you don't want to lay off a bunch of Harvard 451 00:23:37,200 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 9: graduates of who are going to be future Titans of 452 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:42,040 Speaker 9: the universe and then shoot yourself on the foot come 453 00:23:42,280 --> 00:23:45,520 Speaker 9: the next recruiting season. But that's a very unique situation 454 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,040 Speaker 9: in most of the country. I would say the country 455 00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:51,640 Speaker 9: is still understaffed. Go to a restaurant, go to an airport, 456 00:23:52,280 --> 00:23:55,520 Speaker 9: you'll see lots of check in counters and very few 457 00:23:57,200 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 9: check in associates and so long weights, low customer satisfaction. 458 00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:05,240 Speaker 9: Those are still big problems in the economy. And for 459 00:24:05,400 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 9: the most part, employment levels are below what would be 460 00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 9: predicted by spending levels and activity levels. 461 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:13,840 Speaker 2: What are you seeing when it comes to temporary employment? 462 00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:18,600 Speaker 9: Very interesting. So we've seen a very large drop over 463 00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,600 Speaker 9: the past couple of months, since since early twenty twenty 464 00:24:21,680 --> 00:24:24,320 Speaker 9: two in the number of temporary health services employees. Over 465 00:24:24,359 --> 00:24:28,080 Speaker 9: two hundred thousand of those jobs have been lost, and 466 00:24:28,800 --> 00:24:32,000 Speaker 9: that typically is a signal of a recession. It's caused 467 00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:36,200 Speaker 9: many of us that are leading economic indexes to suggest 468 00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,520 Speaker 9: that we're going to we're in for a big downturn. 469 00:24:39,040 --> 00:24:42,479 Speaker 2: So how much we are potential lag would that signal? 470 00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 2: As far as looking ahead to that, like, how far 471 00:24:45,600 --> 00:24:47,560 Speaker 2: ahead would that signal potential recession? 472 00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,119 Speaker 9: Usually it's only about three to four months ahead. But 473 00:24:51,200 --> 00:24:53,600 Speaker 9: we've been seeing this indicator decline now for a year 474 00:24:53,600 --> 00:24:56,800 Speaker 9: and a half, and I would argue that this time 475 00:24:56,960 --> 00:24:59,560 Speaker 9: is different. The decline is a return to normal. 476 00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,720 Speaker 2: It is a good because of the pandemic. 477 00:25:02,640 --> 00:25:05,919 Speaker 9: Yes, so during the pandemic, companies were so short staffed 478 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:08,840 Speaker 9: that they were forced to rely excessively on overtime hours 479 00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 9: and external agency staff. Now, as they build up their 480 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:14,240 Speaker 9: own internal staff, they no longer need to rely so 481 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 9: heavily on external agencies. 482 00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,719 Speaker 5: Using the ZIP recruiter data, can I tell my college 483 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:23,200 Speaker 5: graduates where to what industries to look in? Where the 484 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:27,040 Speaker 5: biggest self? What do you get when you're a philosophy major? 485 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:29,720 Speaker 5: What are they paying philosophers these days? 486 00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:31,399 Speaker 2: Right? 487 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 9: So there are big, big differences across college majors. We 488 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,840 Speaker 9: have a college grad report that discusses these in some 489 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,680 Speaker 9: detail on our website. It is those stem fields that 490 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:46,600 Speaker 9: are still getting graduates the biggest paychecks, computer science and 491 00:25:46,680 --> 00:25:53,640 Speaker 9: all the healthcare fields. Healthcare is showing unstoppable demand for workers. 492 00:25:54,160 --> 00:25:58,200 Speaker 9: There are huge staffing shortages and many different occupations there. 493 00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:03,520 Speaker 9: Physicians are retiring in huge numbers. We expect by the 494 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 9: end of this decade that forty percent will be over 495 00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:10,680 Speaker 9: the age of sixty five, and that's creating huge opportunity 496 00:26:11,000 --> 00:26:13,800 Speaker 9: all the way down. So nurses are moving up into 497 00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:19,240 Speaker 9: becoming physician assistants and nurse practitioners. Hospitals are having to 498 00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,639 Speaker 9: pull out all the stops to retain nurses. They're increasingly 499 00:26:22,760 --> 00:26:27,000 Speaker 9: offering training programs for CNAs and less educated workers to 500 00:26:27,119 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 9: enter those kinds of roles. 501 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:30,880 Speaker 2: Julia, we'll leave about twenty seconds left. What's the top 502 00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:33,080 Speaker 2: concern that employers have when you speak to them. 503 00:26:34,359 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 9: They are still worried that there could be a downturn ahead. 504 00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:39,159 Speaker 9: They're worried that the US consumer will be hit by 505 00:26:39,200 --> 00:26:41,440 Speaker 9: these high interest rates on credit cards and auto loans, 506 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:44,520 Speaker 9: and they worry about the student loan debt resumption. Just 507 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:45,680 Speaker 9: around the corner, all. 508 00:26:45,640 --> 00:26:49,240 Speaker 2: Right, Julia Pollock, chief US economists at ZIP Recruiter, joining 509 00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,919 Speaker 2: us to break down the latest jobs numbers. 510 00:26:52,880 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 7: You're listening to the Team Can't Live program Bloomberg Markets 511 00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 7: weekdays at ten am Eastern. 512 00:26:58,400 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 11: On Bloomberg dot Com. 513 00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:02,360 Speaker 7: I heard radio app and the Low Park Business app, 514 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 7: or listen on demand wherever you get your podcast. 515 00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:11,600 Speaker 2: So this morning's jobs report seeing employers adding one hundred 516 00:27:11,640 --> 00:27:15,160 Speaker 2: and eighty seven one thousand jobs in August. You also 517 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 2: see the unemployment rate tick up to about three point 518 00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,320 Speaker 2: eight percent, but it had been hovering around three and 519 00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,639 Speaker 2: a half percent, about a half century low for a 520 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:24,520 Speaker 2: while here. So I want to bring in Tom gimbal 521 00:27:24,640 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 2: CEO of Losal Network to break down some of these 522 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,600 Speaker 2: hiring trends and some of a kind of a deep 523 00:27:30,680 --> 00:27:34,240 Speaker 2: dive here within the data. Tom, thanks for joining John 524 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:37,600 Speaker 2: Tucker and myself this morning, especially on a slower Friday 525 00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:41,080 Speaker 2: heading into the Labor day weekend. What's your take when 526 00:27:41,240 --> 00:27:43,440 Speaker 2: you are looking at some of these headline numbers, because 527 00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 2: I know that the unemployment rate did climb a little 528 00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,680 Speaker 2: bit to its highest level since last year, but is 529 00:27:48,720 --> 00:27:51,480 Speaker 2: a lot of that due to more people just coming 530 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,040 Speaker 2: back into the labor force. 531 00:27:53,880 --> 00:27:54,080 Speaker 8: Yeah. 532 00:27:54,160 --> 00:27:57,359 Speaker 11: Absolutely, participation rate increased a little bit, which is a 533 00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 11: good sign. And we had one hundred and eighty seven 534 00:28:01,119 --> 00:28:04,159 Speaker 11: thousand jobs that were added, which is good. And you 535 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:07,200 Speaker 11: got to remember the prediction was one hundred and seventy 536 00:28:07,280 --> 00:28:11,439 Speaker 11: five thousand, so we exceeded that. We're not over two hundred, 537 00:28:11,520 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 11: but we are exceeding with the average jobs that were 538 00:28:14,920 --> 00:28:18,119 Speaker 11: added between twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, which was one 539 00:28:18,200 --> 00:28:21,480 Speaker 11: hundred and seventy eight thousand jobs on average, So it 540 00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:24,640 Speaker 11: really signals it might not be the strongest economy we've 541 00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,840 Speaker 11: seen in the past three years, but it's definitely not weak. 542 00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:28,760 Speaker 5: Now, I'm not going to give you an opening to 543 00:28:28,840 --> 00:28:31,159 Speaker 5: do a commercial, but what does the Sound Network do. 544 00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,120 Speaker 11: So we're a staffing and recruiting firm for white collar jobs. 545 00:28:35,119 --> 00:28:40,880 Speaker 11: So we do search for accountants, technology, sales, marketing, et cetera. 546 00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,680 Speaker 11: And then we also have an interim or temporary staffing 547 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:45,440 Speaker 11: group placing people in those same fields. 548 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:50,120 Speaker 5: Okay, can you gauge for us how much they're getting paid, 549 00:28:50,160 --> 00:28:54,040 Speaker 5: whether it's more the salaries are increasing or what I'm 550 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:56,920 Speaker 5: trying to get a gauge of the inflationary components in 551 00:28:57,000 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 5: all this. 552 00:28:58,040 --> 00:29:02,640 Speaker 11: Totally salaries over the past during the pandemic, salaries increased 553 00:29:02,680 --> 00:29:04,760 Speaker 11: the same way you saw it on the hourly side, 554 00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 11: with Target and Amazon getting up into twenty and twenty 555 00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:10,479 Speaker 11: five dollars an hour. It happened in the same thing 556 00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:14,400 Speaker 11: within supply chain and marketing and HR and accounting and 557 00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:19,720 Speaker 11: technology is always growing. And that continued really up until 558 00:29:19,760 --> 00:29:22,600 Speaker 11: the end of last year. And then now we're sitting 559 00:29:22,640 --> 00:29:27,600 Speaker 11: at a standpoint where it stabilized a little bit, where 560 00:29:27,640 --> 00:29:30,560 Speaker 11: we've seen that the employee isn't in control the way 561 00:29:30,600 --> 00:29:33,040 Speaker 11: they were in twenty twenty one in twenty twenty two, 562 00:29:33,120 --> 00:29:36,240 Speaker 11: where they could work when they wanted and demand whatever salary. 563 00:29:36,920 --> 00:29:39,400 Speaker 11: And I think we see that by the labor force 564 00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:42,880 Speaker 11: increasing and the unemployment rate going up, that companies are 565 00:29:42,960 --> 00:29:45,400 Speaker 11: not in as much of a high demand as they 566 00:29:45,440 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 11: were before. 567 00:29:46,280 --> 00:29:49,200 Speaker 2: What industries are seeing wage increases the most. I know 568 00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:52,040 Speaker 2: you were talking about obviously technology and some others over 569 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,240 Speaker 2: the past year, but are there some less obvious particular 570 00:29:55,320 --> 00:29:55,840 Speaker 2: groups there. 571 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:59,760 Speaker 11: Well, I think it's really less about the industry and 572 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:02,280 Speaker 11: more more about the roles. You could have somebody in 573 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:06,440 Speaker 11: technology that's working in a manufacturing company and they're going 574 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,160 Speaker 11: to get paid more. You could have a salesperson for 575 00:30:09,240 --> 00:30:14,320 Speaker 11: a technology company being paid less because all the layoffs 576 00:30:14,360 --> 00:30:17,200 Speaker 11: that exist. So I think it's really more about the 577 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:22,440 Speaker 11: individual roles of people than it is about sectors anymore. 578 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:26,160 Speaker 11: And that's usually what's happened since the Great Recession is 579 00:30:26,240 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 11: that it's been less industry. It's been industry agnostic when 580 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 11: it comes to the recession, and more about the individuals 581 00:30:33,360 --> 00:30:36,880 Speaker 11: and the roles that are in high demand. Cybersecurity continues 582 00:30:36,960 --> 00:30:40,560 Speaker 11: to be super super hot. You have healthcare that continues 583 00:30:40,640 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 11: to be really, really hot and people that are willing 584 00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,840 Speaker 11: to do that, whether whether it be in the on 585 00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,560 Speaker 11: the software and the technology side of healthcare. You know, 586 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:51,800 Speaker 11: remember three years ago you couldn't find a nurse, you know, 587 00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:55,160 Speaker 11: pun intended to save your life, and now we don't 588 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:59,719 Speaker 11: have that same problem. So things stabilize a lot quicker. 589 00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:01,760 Speaker 11: And I just don't talk about that as much as 590 00:31:01,840 --> 00:31:04,480 Speaker 11: we do when things are in short supply. 591 00:31:05,000 --> 00:31:06,880 Speaker 2: What are you saying when it comes to sort of 592 00:31:06,920 --> 00:31:10,360 Speaker 2: the work from home dynamic and some of the concessions 593 00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:12,640 Speaker 2: that employers had been giving the past few years. Is 594 00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:14,600 Speaker 2: there any sort of shift you're beginning to see happen 595 00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:16,959 Speaker 2: here as obviously COVID begins to easier. 596 00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:21,040 Speaker 11: Yeah, I think COVID has ease. I don't think that 597 00:31:21,160 --> 00:31:23,600 Speaker 11: that's really the driver anymore. And what we're dealing with 598 00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:28,520 Speaker 11: now is companies that are getting out front and leading. 599 00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,320 Speaker 11: And I think what you'll see after labor Day is 600 00:31:31,600 --> 00:31:35,360 Speaker 11: more and more of companies that will be demanding people 601 00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 11: to come into the office three days a week and 602 00:31:38,480 --> 00:31:41,000 Speaker 11: four days a week and the occasional five. Now they'll 603 00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:43,480 Speaker 11: always be the outlier company that, in order to recruit 604 00:31:43,520 --> 00:31:46,000 Speaker 11: people will say we'll let you work fully remote, but 605 00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,360 Speaker 11: it's going to be few and far between. And I 606 00:31:48,440 --> 00:31:52,080 Speaker 11: think on the big companies, you're going to see the 607 00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:54,800 Speaker 11: majority of them over sixty or seventy percent, they're going 608 00:31:54,880 --> 00:31:57,040 Speaker 11: to have mandatory days in the office. 609 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:01,840 Speaker 5: Is there a predictive capability to a temporary help employment? 610 00:32:01,920 --> 00:32:05,400 Speaker 5: What does it tell us about what businesses view of 611 00:32:05,440 --> 00:32:06,040 Speaker 5: the economy. 612 00:32:06,960 --> 00:32:10,160 Speaker 11: Yeah, temporary help traditionally has been a leading indicator of 613 00:32:10,400 --> 00:32:15,360 Speaker 11: when temporary wages and temporary staffing increases. It's companies putting 614 00:32:15,400 --> 00:32:19,360 Speaker 11: their tone in the water following a recession or a 615 00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,600 Speaker 11: slump in the economy, and that's how they bridge in 616 00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:24,120 Speaker 11: now what we've seen. There was an article in The 617 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:28,880 Speaker 11: Journey yesterday that said temporary staffing's lagging, which really lends 618 00:32:28,960 --> 00:32:32,600 Speaker 11: itself to saying that the market's cooled down a little bit. 619 00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:36,800 Speaker 11: I think it's really a different, different segment of that. 620 00:32:36,960 --> 00:32:42,600 Speaker 11: I think that as unemployment and participation rates increase, that 621 00:32:42,800 --> 00:32:45,400 Speaker 11: companies are able to find some people on their own 622 00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:49,560 Speaker 11: a little bit more, a little easier, and that's an indicator. 623 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:52,000 Speaker 11: And we're seeing that people from the gig economy are 624 00:32:52,080 --> 00:32:55,040 Speaker 11: now starting to re enter the workforce, and the big 625 00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,120 Speaker 11: one is going to be that we're still seeing, and 626 00:32:58,160 --> 00:33:01,160 Speaker 11: I think this is an important indication. We're seeing tempt 627 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,480 Speaker 11: to perm fees continue to be steady. And what that 628 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:06,680 Speaker 11: is means is that companies bring in people to do 629 00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,800 Speaker 11: temporary work and then they'll pay money to buy out 630 00:33:09,880 --> 00:33:12,760 Speaker 11: the agreement and bring them onto their payroll. And when 631 00:33:12,800 --> 00:33:16,800 Speaker 11: that's happening, the economy is still strong because companies weren't 632 00:33:16,840 --> 00:33:19,720 Speaker 11: planning to hire those people permanently, but they end up 633 00:33:19,800 --> 00:33:22,360 Speaker 11: doing it, and that's a really strong indicator. And I 634 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,520 Speaker 11: still see those numbers as being on the strong side. 635 00:33:25,880 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 2: Hey, Tom, whenever you have particular economists who want to 636 00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:33,040 Speaker 2: argue about a potential recession on the horizon in the 637 00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:35,840 Speaker 2: next couple of quarters or just weakness in the economy, 638 00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:37,840 Speaker 2: I mean, to your point earlier that you were alluding to, 639 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:39,239 Speaker 2: you still see that strength there. 640 00:33:39,440 --> 00:33:42,040 Speaker 11: What do you tell them, Well, I think the good 641 00:33:42,080 --> 00:33:45,280 Speaker 11: thing about economists is they'll stick with their prediction even 642 00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:47,440 Speaker 11: if it goes for quarters and years, and then they'll 643 00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:49,320 Speaker 11: eventually have it happen and they'll say I told you so, 644 00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:51,360 Speaker 11: even though it has been going on for three years. 645 00:33:51,880 --> 00:33:54,720 Speaker 11: And I think that's not real life. I think real 646 00:33:54,840 --> 00:33:59,600 Speaker 11: life is that companies are hiring people. There's jobs for 647 00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:02,760 Speaker 11: people that still don't have ideal backgrounds, which tells me 648 00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,760 Speaker 11: it's still a strong economy. And it's not always about 649 00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,440 Speaker 11: how much you pay somebody, it's our people willing to 650 00:34:09,520 --> 00:34:12,239 Speaker 11: do the work. And you know, we've gotten to a 651 00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:16,839 Speaker 11: standpoint of entitlement in the country where we've got people 652 00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,160 Speaker 11: that simply don't want to don't want to do jobs, 653 00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:21,879 Speaker 11: no matter what the dollar amount is. And that's where 654 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,120 Speaker 11: the disconnect is in our in our economic society. So 655 00:34:25,360 --> 00:34:29,600 Speaker 11: I tell economists all the time, let's look at the 656 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 11: companies that are hiring and the people that are taking 657 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,160 Speaker 11: the jobs, and what the turnover and attrition rates are 658 00:34:35,239 --> 00:34:37,200 Speaker 11: and that'll tell you real things. But that's not captured 659 00:34:37,200 --> 00:34:37,800 Speaker 11: in the BLS. 660 00:34:38,239 --> 00:34:42,719 Speaker 5: You talked about the sectors. What about the regions of 661 00:34:42,840 --> 00:34:46,040 Speaker 5: the country. Who's doing what, who's doing best and worst? 662 00:34:46,160 --> 00:34:47,399 Speaker 5: And can you break that down? 663 00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:50,640 Speaker 11: Yeah, I think we're starting to see that, you know, 664 00:34:50,880 --> 00:34:53,759 Speaker 11: some of some of the policies and the regulations on 665 00:34:53,880 --> 00:34:57,720 Speaker 11: the on the West Coast is really starting to affect 666 00:34:57,760 --> 00:34:59,600 Speaker 11: some of that. And we've seen that obviously the moves 667 00:34:59,640 --> 00:35:03,440 Speaker 11: of companies into Texas and Tennessee and other states. But 668 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:05,600 Speaker 11: we're seeing that if there's an area of the country 669 00:35:05,640 --> 00:35:10,200 Speaker 11: where remote work is being offered more, it's coming out 670 00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:14,040 Speaker 11: of California companies because a lot of people don't want 671 00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:18,440 Speaker 11: to pay the taxes and have the regulation there, so 672 00:35:18,480 --> 00:35:20,680 Speaker 11: we're seeing a lot more remote work there. It's easier 673 00:35:20,719 --> 00:35:24,239 Speaker 11: to fire and terminate people who aren't working in the 674 00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:27,719 Speaker 11: state of California. And I think the Coast sarn is 675 00:35:27,960 --> 00:35:31,840 Speaker 11: as desirable as they as they once were Sands Florida. 676 00:35:31,960 --> 00:35:34,600 Speaker 11: So we see a lot of uptick in Texas. We 677 00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,320 Speaker 11: see a lot of it in Tennessee, which are you know, 678 00:35:37,400 --> 00:35:41,160 Speaker 11: there's big growth areas in Austin and Nashville, and those 679 00:35:41,280 --> 00:35:45,160 Speaker 11: tend to be really, really strong and hiring. In the South, 680 00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:47,920 Speaker 11: the traditional you know, I call it the SEC South 681 00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:53,520 Speaker 11: from Alabama over to South Carolina tends to be strong 682 00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,040 Speaker 11: areas for small to medium sized companies. 683 00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 2: Tom, we only have about thirty seconds left. What's some 684 00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,520 Speaker 2: of the top questions or concerns you hear from employers. 685 00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,000 Speaker 11: Oh, I think the biggest thing is, you know, we're 686 00:36:06,040 --> 00:36:10,160 Speaker 11: going into an election year, so there's a lot more 687 00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:13,120 Speaker 11: there's less concern thinking that DC will want to have 688 00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:18,200 Speaker 11: the economy humming going into it. But the biggest challenge 689 00:36:18,480 --> 00:36:22,759 Speaker 11: that they're feeling is that of concern is if the 690 00:36:22,880 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 11: overtime exemption salary is going to increase what they're talking 691 00:36:26,239 --> 00:36:28,480 Speaker 11: about from thirty I think it's thirty eight thousand to 692 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:32,359 Speaker 11: fifty four thousand, and that'll be something that could really 693 00:36:32,520 --> 00:36:35,799 Speaker 11: hurt if inflation doesn't settle down and having to pay 694 00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:38,240 Speaker 11: overtime for people at entry level jobs. 695 00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:40,880 Speaker 2: Tom, thanks so much for joining us. Always a pleasure. 696 00:36:40,880 --> 00:36:44,279 Speaker 2: Tom Gimball, CEO of La Salle Network, breaking down what's 697 00:36:44,320 --> 00:36:46,600 Speaker 2: happening with the jobs picture in hiring. 698 00:36:47,400 --> 00:36:51,000 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape Kenser Live program Bloomberg Markets 699 00:36:51,080 --> 00:36:54,479 Speaker 7: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the tune 700 00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,439 Speaker 7: in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 701 00:36:57,520 --> 00:37:00,319 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 702 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:04,720 Speaker 7: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 703 00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:08,600 Speaker 2: I want to get straight to our next guest, Eddie 704 00:37:08,680 --> 00:37:12,440 Speaker 2: Vanderwold of Bloomberg News. Eddie, we really appreciate your patients 705 00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,279 Speaker 2: sticking with us this afternoon. As we just heard from 706 00:37:15,360 --> 00:37:17,719 Speaker 2: President Biden, I want to get your thoughts on his 707 00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:21,200 Speaker 2: comments as well as the labor market data this morning, 708 00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:23,880 Speaker 2: in the manufacturing data sort of, what is your takeaway 709 00:37:23,920 --> 00:37:26,400 Speaker 2: when he is talking about the resiliency here with the 710 00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:27,720 Speaker 2: US economy in the job market. 711 00:37:28,600 --> 00:37:30,520 Speaker 6: Yeah, absolutely, you know what I think. I think he 712 00:37:30,640 --> 00:37:33,480 Speaker 6: probably has a reason to be satisfied with some of 713 00:37:33,520 --> 00:37:36,240 Speaker 6: those numbers that came out today. The non fun payrolls 714 00:37:36,280 --> 00:37:39,759 Speaker 6: obviously came in above expectations and in fact above the 715 00:37:39,840 --> 00:37:44,560 Speaker 6: prior month's revive revisions. Now, we did see the unemployment 716 00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,000 Speaker 6: rate tick high at a three point eight percent, but 717 00:37:47,160 --> 00:37:50,319 Speaker 6: that's partly of a reason, partly because people are coming 718 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:53,600 Speaker 6: back to the jobs market. We've got more people participating 719 00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:57,239 Speaker 6: in the jobs market. Now, we saw the participating participation 720 00:37:57,400 --> 00:38:00,520 Speaker 6: rate pick up. Subsequently to those numbers, we had the 721 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:04,120 Speaker 6: PMI numbers come in, which showed that manufacturing in the 722 00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:09,320 Speaker 6: US actually slow the less that was expected, and that 723 00:38:09,760 --> 00:38:12,520 Speaker 6: turned the markets around. We're now seeing you know, the 724 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,840 Speaker 6: S and P pretty much flat on the day. But 725 00:38:14,920 --> 00:38:16,880 Speaker 6: I think the real action for me is in the 726 00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:20,120 Speaker 6: bond market, we were seeing a real steepening. We're seeing 727 00:38:20,600 --> 00:38:23,600 Speaker 6: thirty year yields and ten year yields rise by about 728 00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:26,520 Speaker 6: seven or eight basis points, much more than at the 729 00:38:26,600 --> 00:38:29,040 Speaker 6: front end of the curve. And what that tells us 730 00:38:29,520 --> 00:38:32,560 Speaker 6: is that the markets are pricing out a little bit 731 00:38:32,680 --> 00:38:34,960 Speaker 6: recession risk, and of course Biden will be very happy 732 00:38:35,000 --> 00:38:37,200 Speaker 6: about that coming into an election next year. 733 00:38:37,640 --> 00:38:39,279 Speaker 10: I mean, talk to me about the bond market though, 734 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:42,800 Speaker 10: I mean earlier this week the two year was above 735 00:38:43,160 --> 00:38:47,279 Speaker 10: five percent. Was that the last we're going to see 736 00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,080 Speaker 10: in that or do we think that there's a potential 737 00:38:50,600 --> 00:38:54,040 Speaker 10: here to kind of reverse some of the movements that 738 00:38:54,120 --> 00:38:55,480 Speaker 10: we've seen over the last couple of days. 739 00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:00,919 Speaker 6: Yeah, you know what, the two years tried above couple 740 00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:03,759 Speaker 6: of times and hasn't light it. I don't think many 741 00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:06,360 Speaker 6: in the market think that the FED is going to 742 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,000 Speaker 6: raise rates much more. And really the two year end 743 00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:10,680 Speaker 6: of the curve is a bet on whether the Fed 744 00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:13,040 Speaker 6: is going to be able to hike at going into 745 00:39:13,120 --> 00:39:16,000 Speaker 6: next year or will be forced into hiking going into 746 00:39:16,080 --> 00:39:19,359 Speaker 6: next year, and with inflation doing what it is doing 747 00:39:19,400 --> 00:39:21,759 Speaker 6: at the moment, which is, you know, coming down slow 748 00:39:21,800 --> 00:39:27,520 Speaker 6: and steadily, not many people think that. The bigger risk 749 00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,200 Speaker 6: I think for most economists is that that the that 750 00:39:30,320 --> 00:39:32,320 Speaker 6: the FED will have to cut that they will be 751 00:39:32,480 --> 00:39:35,839 Speaker 6: forced into cutting because inflation slows. But at the same 752 00:39:35,920 --> 00:39:38,800 Speaker 6: time the US goes into a recession, you're seeing the market, 753 00:39:39,239 --> 00:39:42,440 Speaker 6: the the the you know, main street starting to shad jobs. 754 00:39:43,400 --> 00:39:43,920 Speaker 2: But we're not. 755 00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:46,520 Speaker 6: Seeing that at the moment. What we're seeing is that steepening. 756 00:39:46,560 --> 00:39:50,560 Speaker 6: And we're sitting now with about about seventy basis points 757 00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,879 Speaker 6: of inversion between the two year and the ten year 758 00:39:54,160 --> 00:39:55,239 Speaker 6: points on the yield curve. 759 00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,720 Speaker 2: I want to get your thoughts on China, world's second 760 00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:01,160 Speaker 2: largest economy here. You know, there's concerns about some of 761 00:40:01,239 --> 00:40:03,960 Speaker 2: its flagging growth, but is some of the disinflation that's 762 00:40:04,000 --> 00:40:07,040 Speaker 2: happening Is that actually in favor of the FED in 763 00:40:07,120 --> 00:40:10,120 Speaker 2: maybe some other corners of the global markets here as 764 00:40:10,160 --> 00:40:11,879 Speaker 2: far as when you're looking at these other central banks 765 00:40:11,920 --> 00:40:13,160 Speaker 2: that are still trying to fight inflation. 766 00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,920 Speaker 6: I think China has been an exporter of this inflation, right. 767 00:40:18,080 --> 00:40:21,760 Speaker 6: I think this inflation that we saw there is feeding 768 00:40:21,840 --> 00:40:24,879 Speaker 6: through into goods that we buy here and therefore also 769 00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:28,040 Speaker 6: into services and also into wages. But I think it's 770 00:40:28,120 --> 00:40:30,959 Speaker 6: wider than that, right. I think it's more worrying because 771 00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:34,160 Speaker 6: if China is slowing, that's because people across the world 772 00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:36,960 Speaker 6: is not buying their goods, right, And if we're not 773 00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:39,239 Speaker 6: buying their goods, that means that we're not spending money, 774 00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:43,040 Speaker 6: and that's a recessionary flag. Now they've been slowly and 775 00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,920 Speaker 6: steadily they've been you know, people were hoping for this 776 00:40:46,080 --> 00:40:49,960 Speaker 6: kind of big bang stimulus in China. Instead they've been 777 00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,440 Speaker 6: getting fairly small measures. But somebody the newsroom said to 778 00:40:53,520 --> 00:40:56,760 Speaker 6: me earlier today that maybe those small measures are starting 779 00:40:56,760 --> 00:40:57,839 Speaker 6: to look like a machine gun. 780 00:40:58,040 --> 00:40:58,160 Speaker 1: Right. 781 00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,879 Speaker 6: They're delivering them over and over and over. Every day 782 00:41:00,920 --> 00:41:02,760 Speaker 6: that you come in there, there's a little bit more stimulus. 783 00:41:02,960 --> 00:41:05,160 Speaker 6: So maybe it's not a Maybe it's not a bazuka. 784 00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,800 Speaker 6: Maybe it's a machine gun. But the market's starting to 785 00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,759 Speaker 6: pay attention and we are starting to see, you know, 786 00:41:11,960 --> 00:41:16,120 Speaker 6: Chinese stocks doing slightly better. They still have a lot 787 00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:17,920 Speaker 6: of trouble in their property sector though. 788 00:41:18,480 --> 00:41:18,680 Speaker 8: Yeah. 789 00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:22,000 Speaker 10: I mean every day you come in, mortgage support here, 790 00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:25,879 Speaker 10: tax breaks here, stocks support here. I mean, just very quickly, 791 00:41:25,920 --> 00:41:28,880 Speaker 10: we all have about twenty seconds here. But do you 792 00:41:29,000 --> 00:41:32,640 Speaker 10: see more of a risk that China of China contagion 793 00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:33,759 Speaker 10: than the markets are pricing in? 794 00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:34,440 Speaker 4: Just yes or no? 795 00:41:34,520 --> 00:41:34,800 Speaker 9: Please? 796 00:41:36,360 --> 00:41:40,359 Speaker 6: I think probably yes. I think China. If China slows 797 00:41:40,400 --> 00:41:42,080 Speaker 6: down significantly, that's going to be a problem for the 798 00:41:42,120 --> 00:41:44,319 Speaker 6: rest of the world, right well. 799 00:41:44,320 --> 00:41:47,720 Speaker 2: World's second largest economy behind US and of course Japan 800 00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:51,080 Speaker 2: third largest economy. Eddie, thank you for being patient sticking 801 00:41:51,160 --> 00:41:55,040 Speaker 2: with us. We really appreciate Eddie Vanderwold of Bloomberg News, 802 00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:57,680 Speaker 2: of course breaking down what we were seeing with the 803 00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,279 Speaker 2: obviously the jobs picture, and then on the back of 804 00:42:00,320 --> 00:42:02,040 Speaker 2: those comments from President Joe Biden. 805 00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,480 Speaker 7: You're listening to the tape kens our live program Bloomberg 806 00:42:05,600 --> 00:42:09,160 Speaker 7: Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 807 00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,439 Speaker 7: tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 808 00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:15,279 Speaker 7: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 809 00:42:15,360 --> 00:42:19,720 Speaker 7: flagship New York station just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 810 00:42:21,239 --> 00:42:23,520 Speaker 2: When you are looking at what's happening with Amjen as 811 00:42:23,560 --> 00:42:26,759 Speaker 2: well as Horizon, so Amjin can move forward with its 812 00:42:27,160 --> 00:42:30,719 Speaker 2: around close to twenty eight billion dollar takeover of Horizon 813 00:42:30,800 --> 00:42:34,600 Speaker 2: Therapeutics after the FTC did say Friday that it accepted 814 00:42:34,600 --> 00:42:38,120 Speaker 2: a binding settlement that the combined company would bundle would 815 00:42:38,200 --> 00:42:42,399 Speaker 2: not bundle together two of Horizons blockbuster drugs. I want 816 00:42:42,480 --> 00:42:47,879 Speaker 2: to bring in Jennifer Ree, senior litigation analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence. 817 00:42:47,960 --> 00:42:50,120 Speaker 2: She's always on top of all things when it comes 818 00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:53,680 Speaker 2: to when it comes to actually stories and deals like this, 819 00:42:54,080 --> 00:42:56,719 Speaker 2: joining us to talk about this FTC settlement on this 820 00:42:56,840 --> 00:43:00,880 Speaker 2: Amgin Horizon deal here, Jennifer, thanks for joining us this afternoon, 821 00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:04,160 Speaker 2: walk us through what this means moving forward with this deal. 822 00:43:05,480 --> 00:43:07,680 Speaker 12: Well, thanks for having me. I mean, I think this 823 00:43:07,880 --> 00:43:10,560 Speaker 12: was a really smart move by the STC. To be honest, 824 00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:15,759 Speaker 12: they have sought a way to try to slow down consolidation, 825 00:43:15,960 --> 00:43:19,440 Speaker 12: particularly in the pharmaceutical industry, and I thought, I think 826 00:43:19,520 --> 00:43:21,919 Speaker 12: that they thought, you know, this is a great opportunity 827 00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:25,080 Speaker 12: with this merger to try out a novel theory, try 828 00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,360 Speaker 12: to push the law out to make it easier to 829 00:43:27,400 --> 00:43:30,239 Speaker 12: block pharmaceutical deals, and to try to go to court 830 00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:33,719 Speaker 12: to get a judge to stop this deal using kind 831 00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:37,000 Speaker 12: of a novel theory. And what that theory was was 832 00:43:37,080 --> 00:43:40,400 Speaker 12: that those two blockbuster drugs of Horizon that you just mentioned, 833 00:43:40,520 --> 00:43:43,560 Speaker 12: one for chronic gout and the other for I diybory disease, 834 00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:47,239 Speaker 12: would be in Amgen's hands. Amgen would be able to 835 00:43:47,280 --> 00:43:49,960 Speaker 12: maintain the monopolies for those drugs because it would bundle 836 00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:53,799 Speaker 12: it and provide rebates for those bundles with other blockbusters 837 00:43:53,880 --> 00:43:56,279 Speaker 12: drugs that Amgen already has, and it could do that 838 00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,000 Speaker 12: better than Horizon could on its own, and it would 839 00:43:59,040 --> 00:44:01,600 Speaker 12: lock the future and of other drugs. And here's the thing. 840 00:44:02,400 --> 00:44:05,640 Speaker 12: That kind of theory could almost be used in almost 841 00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,600 Speaker 12: any pharmaceutical deal. So it was kind of a big 842 00:44:08,680 --> 00:44:11,320 Speaker 12: deal for the industry. So the fact that it's settling 843 00:44:11,640 --> 00:44:13,680 Speaker 12: is also a big deal for the industry because it 844 00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:17,320 Speaker 12: shows that the STC kind of backed off that theory, 845 00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:19,040 Speaker 12: which really is a broad theory. 846 00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:22,239 Speaker 10: Okay, but dig into the details a little bit for 847 00:44:22,360 --> 00:44:29,680 Speaker 10: me here. So Tapeza and christis right, apologies. Does how 848 00:44:29,719 --> 00:44:35,400 Speaker 10: does bundling an agreement not to bundle those drugs accomplish 849 00:44:35,719 --> 00:44:36,360 Speaker 10: this purpose? 850 00:44:38,520 --> 00:44:42,120 Speaker 12: So the idea is that they if engine provided really 851 00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:45,400 Speaker 12: seed rebase let's state of pharmacy benefit managers or insurers 852 00:44:45,560 --> 00:44:48,239 Speaker 12: to bundle those drugs to put it on a drug formulary. 853 00:44:48,719 --> 00:44:51,080 Speaker 12: What that would do would be to block out other 854 00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:55,440 Speaker 12: potential up and coming new FDA approved drugs that can 855 00:44:55,560 --> 00:44:58,520 Speaker 12: compete with those two. With christecks that I can't say 856 00:44:58,520 --> 00:45:00,720 Speaker 12: it either any other drugs. 857 00:45:00,800 --> 00:45:03,520 Speaker 2: It's always avousible, you know, they always are. 858 00:45:03,560 --> 00:45:06,040 Speaker 12: I don't know why they named drugs with they really do. 859 00:45:07,200 --> 00:45:09,680 Speaker 12: But the idea is that if there are other innovators 860 00:45:09,719 --> 00:45:12,120 Speaker 12: out there trying to come up with a drug or 861 00:45:12,160 --> 00:45:14,560 Speaker 12: get FDA approval for a drug that could treat the 862 00:45:14,640 --> 00:45:17,840 Speaker 12: same condition and potentially bring prices down across the board 863 00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,040 Speaker 12: for drugs that treat those two conditions, that they really 864 00:45:21,080 --> 00:45:23,120 Speaker 12: wouldn't be able to get into the market because these 865 00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:26,920 Speaker 12: bundles rebates would be too enticing for the pharmacy benefit 866 00:45:27,040 --> 00:45:30,279 Speaker 12: managers to they'd have to accept them, and to accept them, 867 00:45:30,360 --> 00:45:32,799 Speaker 12: they'd have to put the horizon drugs on the formulary 868 00:45:32,920 --> 00:45:35,440 Speaker 12: and not these competing drugs, And so the competing drugs 869 00:45:35,680 --> 00:45:38,160 Speaker 12: can't get into the market. They can't get in a foothold. 870 00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:41,960 Speaker 12: So if Amgent can't bundle them, it opens up that avenue. 871 00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,280 Speaker 12: It takes away that blockade, right and if it allows 872 00:45:45,360 --> 00:45:48,520 Speaker 12: for the possibility down the road for other rivals to 873 00:45:48,600 --> 00:45:51,120 Speaker 12: try to come in and compete against those two drugs, who. 874 00:45:51,040 --> 00:45:53,600 Speaker 2: Do you consider to be the biggest rivals at this 875 00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:54,319 Speaker 2: point for them? 876 00:45:56,320 --> 00:45:59,080 Speaker 12: You know, I think that's the most speculative part of 877 00:45:59,160 --> 00:46:02,960 Speaker 12: this entire law. They're really they really couldn't really name 878 00:46:03,040 --> 00:46:06,799 Speaker 12: any I mean, now there may be in phase three 879 00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:10,400 Speaker 12: or phase two somewhere along the FDA process, some rivals, 880 00:46:10,840 --> 00:46:13,839 Speaker 12: other analysts would be better off, who know what's going 881 00:46:13,880 --> 00:46:16,239 Speaker 12: on in the biotech space to speak about that. But 882 00:46:16,320 --> 00:46:18,880 Speaker 12: here's the thing. It was so speculative because the FTC 883 00:46:19,000 --> 00:46:22,800 Speaker 12: couldn't really say, hey, X drug or Y drug or 884 00:46:22,960 --> 00:46:26,640 Speaker 12: ABC company has something coming soon. They couldn't do that. 885 00:46:27,160 --> 00:46:30,760 Speaker 12: It was really speculative that maybe down the road, maybe 886 00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,480 Speaker 12: there will be something that might compete and might not 887 00:46:33,640 --> 00:46:36,279 Speaker 12: be able to So it was a tough theory for 888 00:46:36,360 --> 00:46:38,440 Speaker 12: the FTC to try to win in court. And that's 889 00:46:38,480 --> 00:46:41,120 Speaker 12: why I say that it was probably a smart thing 890 00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,240 Speaker 12: for them to do to get this settlement instead. 891 00:46:44,719 --> 00:46:47,520 Speaker 10: Yeah, I mean, also, what do you think that this 892 00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:53,920 Speaker 10: says about the broader FTC task here? You know, we 893 00:46:54,040 --> 00:47:01,360 Speaker 10: had Black Knight Ice dropping the challenge there yesterday as 894 00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:03,879 Speaker 10: the FDC's realize that it's run up against the wall, 895 00:47:05,080 --> 00:47:06,080 Speaker 10: you know, I sort. 896 00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:08,400 Speaker 12: Of think it has. I think the FDC got a 897 00:47:08,440 --> 00:47:11,200 Speaker 12: little bit tired of losing. You know, they lost two 898 00:47:11,320 --> 00:47:14,279 Speaker 12: big merger challenges that were really well publicized that was 899 00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:17,280 Speaker 12: a challenge to Meta trying to buy a small virtual 900 00:47:17,360 --> 00:47:21,320 Speaker 12: reality company called Within, and then Microsoft trying to buy Activision. 901 00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:24,239 Speaker 12: You know, these were really well known, kind of sort 902 00:47:24,280 --> 00:47:29,279 Speaker 12: of spectacularly public court losses, and I think that they 903 00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:32,200 Speaker 12: pulled back a little bit. They have been very aggressive. 904 00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:34,520 Speaker 12: I think they do want to continue to be aggressive, 905 00:47:34,880 --> 00:47:37,080 Speaker 12: but maybe they've pulled back to think about, Look, we 906 00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:39,120 Speaker 12: can be aggressive, but maybe we need to pick and 907 00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,839 Speaker 12: choose our challenges to deal just with a little bit 908 00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:44,600 Speaker 12: more discretion, because when we go into court with a 909 00:47:44,719 --> 00:47:48,000 Speaker 12: really tough theory, particularly if you don't have the evidence 910 00:47:48,040 --> 00:47:50,920 Speaker 12: and the facts to back that new theory that you're 911 00:47:50,960 --> 00:47:54,359 Speaker 12: asking a judge to accept, you know, we're really there's 912 00:47:54,360 --> 00:47:56,120 Speaker 12: a good chance we're headed for a loss and we 913 00:47:56,280 --> 00:47:58,359 Speaker 12: need to get a win down the road. So yeah, 914 00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,200 Speaker 12: I think it probably show is that the STT is 915 00:48:01,239 --> 00:48:04,120 Speaker 12: going to exercise a little more caution and going forward 916 00:48:04,200 --> 00:48:06,759 Speaker 12: with respect to challenging specific types of deals. 917 00:48:07,280 --> 00:48:11,040 Speaker 2: Jennifer Ree, senior litigation analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, Thank you 918 00:48:11,200 --> 00:48:12,319 Speaker 2: so much for joining us. 919 00:48:13,520 --> 00:48:16,560 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Markets podcast. You can 920 00:48:16,640 --> 00:48:20,360 Speaker 1: subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple podcasts, or whatever 921 00:48:20,520 --> 00:48:24,120 Speaker 1: podcast platform you prefer. I'm Matt Miller. I'm on Twitter 922 00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,640 Speaker 1: at Matt Miller nineteen seventy three. And I'm fall Sweeney. 923 00:48:27,680 --> 00:48:30,279 Speaker 1: I'm on Twitter at pt Sweeney. Before the podcast, you 924 00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:32,719 Speaker 1: can always catch us worldwide at Bloomberg Radio