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Speaker 1: The Action Network podcast, named best betting podcast or radio

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Speaker 1: show by the Fantasy Sports and Gaming Association and the

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Speaker 1: number one show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go, throwing up job spectator. We're

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Speaker 2: setting it to cash.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to wind.

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Speaker 4: That's incredible, big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate combine you want to pull.

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Speaker 4: And we are underway quarter of the NFL season in

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Speaker 4: the books.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Week five NFL betting podcast.

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Speaker 3: Chris Raybond here with my co host, the Prime Minister

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Speaker 3: of Degenerate Nation, Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 4: What's going on? How is your week four?

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Speaker 2: My Week four was extremely frustrating for those of you

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Speaker 2: that here. People talk about CLV. We talk about this

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Speaker 2: in the podcast as well. Sometimes it's closed we mean

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Speaker 2: closing line value in the NFL. It is really one

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Speaker 2: of the biggest signals of whether or not you're could

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Speaker 2: be successful at this. The NFL markets so much money

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Speaker 2: can be bet into it. The closing line in the

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Speaker 2: NFL market is uber efficient. Right, all the information there's

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Speaker 2: no like this isn't a college basketball team from a

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Speaker 2: random conference where you might not know the market might

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Speaker 2: not know about an injury. Everything is known in the NFL,

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Speaker 2: huge volumes of money. So the closing line is the

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Speaker 2: most efficient line in the world. You know, so over

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Speaker 2: a long you know, large sample size. If you compare

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Speaker 2: with the number that you bet at compared to where

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Speaker 2: the market closes at in the NFL, it can it's

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Speaker 2: a pretty good indicator of whether or not you can

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Speaker 2: have some success in this over in the long run.

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Speaker 2: Now you could have a day, a week, a month

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Speaker 2: where you're getting all the closing line value in the

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Speaker 2: world and you're still losing. It doesn't matter. There's gonna

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Speaker 2: be tons of variants and noise in it to never

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Speaker 2: one an weekend, but those happen. And now I have

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Speaker 2: Thursday Night football coming up. When I grab there's plus

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Speaker 2: six and that's trending now towards plus three, So hopefully

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Speaker 2: I'm not doomed.

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Speaker 3: And we will preview that Thursday night game. Then we'll

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Speaker 3: get into our six favorite bets for Sunday. In the

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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: We'll give you our favorite total plays of the week, teaser.

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Speaker 3: Moneyline, underdog parlay, all that good stuff before we kick

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Speaker 3: things off. Two very quick reminders. Number one, if you

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Speaker 3: plan to bet on the NFL this season and haven't

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Speaker 3: downloaded the free award winning Action Network app, what are

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Speaker 3: in the whole Action Network team.

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Speaker 4: And it lets you track every bet that you make.

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Speaker 3: free Vegas vacation, don't forget to enter the Action Pods

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Speaker 4: You're still up for grabs.

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Speaker 3: And you've got nothing to lose. Just imagine yourself on

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Speaker 3: that free Vegas vacation. You're gambling, you're drinking, You're running

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Speaker 4: All right, stuck. Let's get into it with some Thursday

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Speaker 4: night football.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 3: So for Week five, we have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,

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Speaker 3: fresh off that unfortunately high scoring game against the Chargers,

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Speaker 3: going to Chicago on the short week to face the

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Speaker 3: Chicago Bears, who finally lost their first game to the

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Speaker 3: Indianapolis coach nineteen eleven. Bears three and a half point underdogs.

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Speaker 3: The total is forty three and a half. That line

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Speaker 3: courtesy of bet MGM, the official odds provider of the

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Speaker 3: Action Network podcast Stuck. I know you bet this line

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Speaker 3: at Chicago plus six. You just mentioned it, you got

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Speaker 3: the closing line value. What can you tell people about

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Speaker 3: the number now that it's at three and a half.

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Speaker 4: How would you treat it? Yeah?

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Speaker 2: I mean I'm not a huge fan of this Bears team,

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Speaker 2: as I've been very vocal about on this podcast in

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Speaker 2: the past. I don't think that there's any significant difference

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Speaker 2: between Foals and Tribisky. I do have Foles graded slightly better,

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Speaker 2: but it's not like we got Tribisky out of there

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Speaker 2: now we have Foles coming in. We're going to be

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Speaker 2: this high powered, explosive offense. You know, the Bucks are

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Speaker 2: still and I said this before, all work in progress,

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Speaker 2: especially on the offensive side now. And I don't know

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Speaker 2: why they don't just go out and they should trade

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Speaker 2: for Jameis Winston, I tweeted out last week. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they're just throwing a bunch of touchdowns and pick sixes.

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Speaker 2: This isn't that what they had before. People are just

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Speaker 2: falling in love too quick with this Bucks team. The

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Speaker 2: upside's really high, especially when Godwin comes back and he's

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Speaker 2: out this week, which is obviously an important loss. The

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Speaker 2: offensive line for the Tampa's been awesome too. By the way,

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Speaker 2: we're just falling. I think the market fell in love

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Speaker 2: with the Box and Brady a little too soon. Let's

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Speaker 2: just hold our horses here. They beat you know, they

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Speaker 2: lost to the Saints in a pretty competitive game early

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Speaker 2: in the air. They had some special teams blunders. I

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Speaker 2: won't even dig them for that. But they beat the Panthers, okay,

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Speaker 2: Then they beat the Broncos with you know, they were

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Speaker 2: gifted of fake block pun early and they're playing the

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Speaker 2: Broncos backup quarterbacks. I mean, then they beat the Charters

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Speaker 2: and again they probably should have lost charters complete control

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Speaker 2: of that game. If you just take a knee at

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Speaker 2: the end of the half, you don't let Tampa back

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Speaker 2: in that game. One of the most splicable decisions I've

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Speaker 2: ever seen, and they fumbled to five and Tampa gets

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Speaker 2: a touchdown before that changes the entire game. So I

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Speaker 2: think there we're just overrating this Tampa team a little

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Speaker 2: too soon, you know, and without God when the offense

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Speaker 2: just isn't as explosive. But for me, it's not like

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Speaker 2: I love any one matchup in this game, and I

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Speaker 2: generally hate betting Thursday Night Football. When I do, I

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Speaker 2: do like to take the home team, which who have

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Speaker 2: been pretty successful against the spread historically. But this is

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Speaker 2: just a numbers play for me. I made it about

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Speaker 2: three and a half. The Bears are pretty healthy after

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Speaker 2: adjusting for God when being out, I made it about

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Speaker 2: three and a half and I was getting six, so

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Speaker 2: I had to take six. That's basically what it comes

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Speaker 2: down to to me. I think Matt Maggie's three and

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Speaker 2: zero Thursday Night Football maybe the shorter time to prepare.

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Speaker 2: He doesn't overthink things, probably a meeting with sample size.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, this is basically numbers play for me at

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Speaker 2: three and a half three, if that's where it was

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Speaker 2: all week, I ninety nine percent sure I would not

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Speaker 2: have a play. So if you didn't get six and

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Speaker 2: follow me on the app, and I would maybe look

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Speaker 2: for something live on Chicago if Tampa goes up early

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Speaker 2: or something else that you see potentially the under. But

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Speaker 2: I just I want no parts of unders until I

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Speaker 2: see more this year. So yeah, basically, just the numbers

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Speaker 2: play for me on Chicago. I think Tampa was being

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Speaker 2: severely overrated here at six. At three and a half,

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Speaker 2: three is more more in line with what I have.

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Speaker 3: I would actually play the Bucks at three. I doubt

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Speaker 3: it will actually get there. I think it will just

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Speaker 3: hang at three and a half. But you know, I

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Speaker 3: get I get it at six, that's you know, that's

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Speaker 3: great value. But I have it at five. So I'm

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Speaker 3: not as often as you are. Tampa Bay still number

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Speaker 3: one in the league in DVOA. I know they did

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Speaker 3: play some lesser opponents, but DVOA does adjust for strength

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Speaker 3: to schedule, and they're sitting there at the top. Brady

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Speaker 3: showed he can still you know, throw lots of touchdowns

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Speaker 3: when he needs to, and and I'm just.

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Speaker 4: Really scared of this Bears offense.

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Speaker 3: I mean, Tampa Bay's defense is really what for me

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Speaker 3: makes them great.

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Speaker 4: You know, they don't have Godwin right now.

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Speaker 3: As you mentioned justin Watson, another one of their top

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Speaker 3: four receivers is out. Miller and Evans are questionable, so

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Speaker 3: their receiving corps banged up. They just lost tight end

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Speaker 3: Oj Howard. So the offense it's gonna be I think

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Speaker 3: a little bit of a slog. Fournett is doubtful, so

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Speaker 3: this probably will be an undergame. I know they are

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Speaker 3: uncomfortable to bet right now, but I also just worry

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Speaker 3: about Chicago's offense. I mean, Nick Foles, it's been under

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Speaker 3: seven yards attempt and attempt, you know, going back to

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville last year, and you know, really hasn't turned it

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Speaker 3: around either.

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Speaker 4: I know they played a good defense, but just kind

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Speaker 4: of worried.

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Speaker 3: About if the Bucks do get up, I mean, if

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Speaker 3: they get up seven to three, like like, what is

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Speaker 3: Chicago really gonna do, They're gonna have to get a

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Speaker 3: Brady pick six. So just not one of the more

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Speaker 3: enticing Thursday nights. But yeah, I'm rooting for you at

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Speaker 3: at the six.

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Speaker 4: But if it gets the three, I.

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Speaker 3: Will be playing Tampa Bay, and I may be playing

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Speaker 3: this under It hasn't really dropped to forty three yet,

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Speaker 3: which is a key number, and I think it might

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Speaker 3: be worth going back there, even after the disappointing game

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Speaker 3: last week with the all the points. You know, Herbert

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Speaker 3: for the Chargers, they've been running a ton. Of course

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Speaker 3: they lose equerd, but Herbert's also been going down the field,

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Speaker 3: and I'm not sure that either one of these teams

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Speaker 3: is going to have any interest in doing that in

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Speaker 3: this matchup.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I want to see if Chicago will actually take

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Speaker 2: some shots downfield, because the one thing that I was

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Speaker 2: you know, this Tampa defensive, it breads out really well

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Speaker 2: so far, obviously, and I'm a believer overall the defense.

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Speaker 2: But the one thing I mentioned coming into the year

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Speaker 2: was potential regression in the secondary. Right, these aren't big

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Speaker 2: name guys in the secondary, and they performed well last year,

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Speaker 2: especially in the second half. But you know, the first

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Speaker 2: game they played Drew Brees, Drew Brees doesn't throw the

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Speaker 2: ball more than four yards down the field last week

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Speaker 2: still last week, of course, and then you know they

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Speaker 2: played Treddy Bridgewater. He's the same way, and he still

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Speaker 2: through for like four hundred yards against them, you know.

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Speaker 2: And then the next week Jeff Driscoll and Brett Rippin,

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Speaker 2: I mean Jeff Driscoll, So it's like all right, And

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Speaker 2: then last week they play at Herbert who doesn't have

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Speaker 2: his full cast of receivers, and he was taking shots downfield.

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Speaker 2: There were two ninety three touchdowns. He was hitting some

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Speaker 2: big plays down the field. So it's hard to get

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Speaker 2: a read on this book secondary, but that they showed

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Speaker 2: some cracks last week. So it's something that I'm watching.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the Bears aren't the team that can exploit it,

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Speaker 2: but I believe in that three four, that front, you know,

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Speaker 2: and their bodies in the middle. There's a reason that

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Speaker 2: they're always going to be a lead against the run.

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Speaker 2: They just eat up blocks Tampa up front with all

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Speaker 2: of their bodies. They have great linebackers too, which is

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Speaker 2: why they're always going to cover the run. They're going

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Speaker 2: to cover backs out of the backfield well. But the

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Speaker 2: one question I have with Tampa is that secondary. Is

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Speaker 2: there gonna be some regression we see there this year

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Speaker 2: And we'll say if Chicago can take advantage with a

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Speaker 2: couple of shots.

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Speaker 3: Top five in DVOA last season, and they're right back

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Speaker 3: there again on defense.

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Speaker 4: So I think it is time to start taking them

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Speaker 4: for real.

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Speaker 3: I mean, yes, that secondary is I think there are

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Speaker 3: a lot of guys that people may not be familiar with.

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Speaker 3: But the one thing is they did invest a lot

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Speaker 3: of high draft picks in those guys.

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Speaker 4: We're seeing it with Winfield already.

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Speaker 3: You know, Carlton Davis has been you know, as Matthew

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Speaker 3: Friedman has written about, he's been playing really well. So

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Speaker 3: these guys aren't like household names. But this team reminds

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Speaker 3: me a little bit of San Francisco last year, where

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Speaker 3: it was around this time of year where you know,

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Speaker 3: people didn't know whether to truly believe in San Francisco.

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Speaker 3: This Bucks team reminds me of that because they have

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Speaker 3: that defense that they can actually weather the storm with

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Speaker 3: a God went out and and an Oj Howard going

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Speaker 3: on IR and a four net out and you know,

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Speaker 3: they kind of assembled all these skill position guys, so

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Speaker 3: they do have some depths, you know when they you know,

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Speaker 3: not this week obviously on a short week, but I'm

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Speaker 3: kind of looking out for this Tampa team to be

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Speaker 3: there when it's all said and done, but they're gonna

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Speaker 3: need this win against the Bears. Yeah.

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Speaker 2: I like. I mean, I like some of their guys

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Speaker 2: in their secondary and I'm a huge winfield guy. Corners

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Speaker 2: in the NFL, so much variance and volatility, it's like,

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Speaker 2: oh this guy a great year. In the next year

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Speaker 2: he's a dud. So it's just something that I'm monitoring.

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Speaker 2: Nothing to keep in mind to this game we've seen

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Speaker 2: so far. You know, Brady under the Patriots on those runs,

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Speaker 2: they were NFL all world records, but plus point eighty

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Speaker 2: five I think on average turnover margin per game over

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Speaker 2: like fifteen years, unheard of. You know, he didn't really

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Speaker 2: turn the ball over and they would force a lot

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Speaker 2: of turnovers and maybe they deflated the balls. But some

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Speaker 2: people would say, I don't. But he's going more downfield now.

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Speaker 2: He's still adjusting to this offense. So I don't think

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Speaker 2: it's a fluke that he's thrown these pick sixes and

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Speaker 2: these bad FROs. He's still adjusting to this offense. He's

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Speaker 2: still getting his timing down with a group of new

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Speaker 2: group of receivers that are in and out for injuries.

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Speaker 2: So it also wouldn't surprise me if you see another

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Speaker 2: pick six or a big pick that leads to a

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Speaker 2: short field for the Bears.

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Speaker 3: You could see a situation play out kind of like

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Speaker 3: Kansas City struggling on that Monday night game a little bit,

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Speaker 3: you know, for much of that game, and then you

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Speaker 3: know Edelman drops the ball right into the hands of

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Speaker 3: the defender and that.

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Speaker 4: That was that.

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Speaker 3: So Chicago's gonna need one of those. I think if

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Speaker 3: they do, I think they cover that. Plus six under

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Speaker 3: is probably where i'mleaning Tampa. If it gets to three,

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Speaker 3: you got it at six for Chicago. And speaking of

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Speaker 3: Before we go into our top six bets for Sunday

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Speaker 3: in the six pack, let's get into our coaches pep

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Speaker 3: talk really quick. I think you have a special someone

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Speaker 3: that you want to dedicate this pep talk to.

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Speaker 4: Who are you dedicating it to?

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Speaker 2: Stuck? Yeah, I got to go since I've won the

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Speaker 2: Bears here with a dedication to Cairo Santos, the Bears kicker.

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Speaker 2: We know about the Bears kicking woes in the past.

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Speaker 2: This game should be close, should be low scoring. Field

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Speaker 2: goals will probably matter and probably impact the outcome. And

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Speaker 2: last year I bet the Tennessee Titans at home against

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Speaker 2: the Bills. The Titans lost fourteen to seven. Well, Cairo

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Speaker 2: Santo's went oh for four on field goals in the game.

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Speaker 2: Oh for four Justin Tucker. I'll think he's missed four

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Speaker 2: field goals in his career, and they got caught the

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Speaker 2: next day. So Cairo Santos gives me nightmares. I am

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Speaker 2: nervous about him. I need him to keep his composure.

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Speaker 3: So this week's pep Talk comes to us from the

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Speaker 3: two thousand and three film Old School, and we're dedicating

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Speaker 3: it to Bear's kicker, Cairo Santos.

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Speaker 4: Come on, all right, everybody, let's what I'm talking about. Guys,

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Speaker 4: We've made a great up and so far, let's just

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Speaker 4: keep it off.

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Speaker 2: That's right. We can't have anyone freak out out there.

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Speaker 4: Okay, we've got a.

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Speaker 2: K Mark apologer. We've got too far.

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Speaker 4: It's too much k markt polser.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's do it, Stuck. Let's crack open the

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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 1: Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack,

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Speaker 1: all right.

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Speaker 3: For anyone not familiar. Stuck and I take turns drafting

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Speaker 3: our top six favorite bets for Sunday's suite of games.

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Speaker 4: We keep scoring, we each get a double.

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Speaker 3: Bonus for our first most confident pick one point each

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Speaker 3: for the other two, and then we also get a

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Speaker 3: point for our total if we hit that, which we

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Speaker 3: will have for you.

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Speaker 4: Coming up in the next segment.

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Speaker 3: Stuck got off to a blazing start this year after

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Speaker 3: I had a narrow victory last season.

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Speaker 4: Stuck jumped out twelve to four.

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Speaker 3: Stuck still up twelve to six, so I still need

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Speaker 3: to make up some ground.

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Speaker 4: But Stuck, you have first pick this week.

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Speaker 3: Where are you going with your number one for the

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Speaker 3: week five Sunday six Pack.

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Speaker 2: My most confident pick last week was New England and

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Speaker 2: then obviously the Beck got canceled and then they got

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Speaker 2: moved to Monday. That might happen this year. This week

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Speaker 2: we have Bill's Titans is up. You know, it might

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Speaker 2: not happen the Titans, but at the forfeit there's it's

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Speaker 2: an odd year. So when that happens, if it does,

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Speaker 2: we pray about it and I just have to talk offline

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Speaker 2: and decide, Okay, take another game, which I did, and

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Speaker 2: I didn't even do it till Sunday night and then

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Speaker 2: I said, I'll I'll have to take the Falcons. I

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Speaker 2: chose the Falcons over taking Brian Hoyer Astidham, which was

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Speaker 2: who were disgusting, but both ended up losing so yeah, Raybond.

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Speaker 2: For my first pick of the Sunday six pack, I'm

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Speaker 2: going with the Minnesota Vikings plus seven at bet MGM

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Speaker 2: against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday night. Look, I've had

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Speaker 2: a really good read on the Vikings this year. I

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Speaker 2: came into the year skeptical. I then downgraded them a lot.

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Speaker 2: I had a big play on the Colts and the

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Speaker 2: under in Week two, but I also said, look, this

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Speaker 2: team later in the year could be undervalued. And things

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Speaker 2: have happened quicker than I expected. And I'll go through

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Speaker 2: some of the reasons why. Number One, Justin Jefferson. So

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Speaker 2: one of my biggest questions about the offense was the

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Speaker 2: whole that they have to replace with Stefan Diggs, and

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Speaker 2: you just have Adam Deiela. Now, who's going to be

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Speaker 2: that number two receiver? You needed a rookie to emerge. Well,

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Speaker 2: Justin Jefferson has emerged. I mean, he's arguably one of

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Speaker 2: the best receivers in the NFL. This year. He leads

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Speaker 2: the NFL in yards peraut He is tied with Stefan

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Speaker 2: Diggs for most twenty plus yard receptions this year. Turned

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Speaker 2: into a legitimate threat at wide receiver to help out

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Speaker 2: Adam Feeling. The offensive line has also played really well

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Speaker 2: from a run blocking perspective, which you would to anticipate

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Speaker 2: some improvement there in Kubiak's second year of his zone

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Speaker 2: blocking scheme Drew Sama. Their guard has been the single,

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Speaker 2: according to the Pro Football Focus, been the single worst

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Speaker 2: player to take an offensive snap this year. He's been bad,

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Speaker 2: and they have an injury at guard, but their tackles.

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Speaker 2: Bradberry is playing a lot better at center, and their

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Speaker 2: run blocking is really improved. And then obviously have Dvin

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Speaker 2: cookh leads the NFL and rushing he leads the NFL

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Speaker 2: and broken tackles. This offense with Jefferson now with the

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Speaker 2: offensive line improvements, is an upside top ten unit and

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Speaker 2: they're going against the Seahawks defense. It's atrocious. That is

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Speaker 2: all is banged up. They have a buy next week,

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Speaker 2: so you're probably gonna see them sit. They're gonna sit

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Speaker 2: Atams to get an extra week of rest. But the Vikings.

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Speaker 2: The other thing that really flipped the Vikings for me.

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Speaker 2: Over the first three weeks, they ran play action twenty

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Speaker 2: percent of their plays. Last week against Houston, they went

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Speaker 2: and they were throwing on first downs. They went on

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Speaker 2: the first three drives, they went run on first down,

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Speaker 2: run on first down, run on first down. The rest

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Speaker 2: of the game they started throwing on first down, and

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Speaker 2: they used play action over fifty percent of the time.

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Speaker 2: And this isn't just a fluke. This isn't just oh,

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Speaker 2: they randomly did this. Zimmer went up to him. This

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Speaker 2: is a quote from an article in the Tribune, and

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Speaker 2: he said, Zimmer said, I told Kubs during the game,

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Speaker 2: I said, go ahead and start being aggressive. Don't worry

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Speaker 2: about throwing the football too much. They were trying to

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Speaker 2: load up up on us to stop the run. We

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Speaker 2: can't be afraid to throw the ball. That is an

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Speaker 2: awesome sign for the Vikings offense. Not this. We need

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Speaker 2: to run, run, run. Zimmer philosophy the playoff action pass,

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Speaker 2: which is where Cousins is most efficient. It can hide

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Speaker 2: some of your past blocking issues and you don't really

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Speaker 2: worry about that against the Seahaws have zero edge rush

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Speaker 2: and they get no pressure bottom five in adjusted sacharate.

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00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:14,320
Speaker 2: But that's going to help this offense enormously. On the

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Speaker 2: defensive side of the ball, it's still a bad defense.

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Speaker 2: But glad neither rookie corner played well last week, which

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Speaker 2: was really good to see, and Gockway's starting to get

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00:20:22,800 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 2: up to speed to provide them some edge rush. Still

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Speaker 2: a work in progress on the defensive side of the ball.

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Speaker 2: Last year, these two teams played in December in Seattle

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Speaker 2: on Sunday night Sunday or Monday night in primetime with fans,

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Speaker 2: and the line was Seattle minus two and a half.

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Speaker 2: Now you're telling me this line is seven and a half,

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Speaker 2: which is what I got on out seven. I still

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00:20:45,680 --> 00:20:48,280
Speaker 2: make it under five. What has changed? I mean, the

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00:20:48,480 --> 00:20:51,920
Speaker 2: Vikings defense got worse. Maybe Russ is cooking a little more.

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Speaker 2: He still he's been playing at a MVP level for years.

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Speaker 2: It has not. The line should not have moved five

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Speaker 2: points from what it was last year. And the Vikings offense,

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Speaker 2: by the way, is better today than it was then.

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Speaker 2: Adam Field didn't play in that game. Treadwell was the

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Speaker 2: number two receiver. I'll take you know, Feelin and Jefferson

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Speaker 2: right now, and the offensive line playing better than Treadwill

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Speaker 2: and Diggs regardless of the offense is about to say the defense, yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's downgraded, which is why I make this line. You know,

436
00:21:17,040 --> 00:21:18,760
Speaker 2: four and a half, five not too to two and

437
00:21:18,840 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 2: a half. The Seahawks are just completely overvalued. I know

438
00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 2: they're four to zero against the spread, but this team

439
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,560
Speaker 2: is running like gods. And by the way, the Vikings

440
00:21:27,560 --> 00:21:29,679
Speaker 2: have lost the teams that are all undefeated, they've had

441
00:21:29,680 --> 00:21:32,320
Speaker 2: a much tougher schedule. The Seahawks lot that they barely

442
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:34,800
Speaker 2: beat the Cowboys. That win looks worse by the day.

443
00:21:35,080 --> 00:21:38,120
Speaker 2: They you know, they were even statistically with the Falcons.

444
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,879
Speaker 2: That looks worse by the day. And then the Dolphins

445
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 2: they give up a fluke play otherwise that game could

446
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 2: have went either way at the at the end of

447
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 2: the first half, and they weren't penalized. They were penalized

448
00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,719
Speaker 2: zero times in the whole game. First time like fifteen

449
00:21:49,760 --> 00:21:53,160
Speaker 2: years the weren't penalized. But there is so much regression

450
00:21:53,200 --> 00:21:56,080
Speaker 2: coming for this team, it's insane. So they've played three

451
00:21:56,119 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 2: of the worst defenses in the NFL. We've we've been

452
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 2: through that. But their red zone touchdown scoring percentage it's

453
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:04,480
Speaker 2: about ninety percent. For reference, they were about sixty five

454
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:07,120
Speaker 2: percent the past two years, fifty five percent twenty seventeen.

455
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 2: No NFL team's ever finished over eighty percent. Now Seattle's

456
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,679
Speaker 2: actually going to face a competent red zone d zimmers

457
00:22:12,720 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 2: d will always be great in the red zone. There's

458
00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:16,720
Speaker 2: a lot of variants in red zone ds. Not Minnesota

459
00:22:16,760 --> 00:22:19,240
Speaker 2: top five again this year had like forty forty five

460
00:22:19,240 --> 00:22:23,080
Speaker 2: percent touchdown percentage, last three years top five forty forty

461
00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:26,520
Speaker 2: five percent. They've also had extreme turnover lock, I mean

462
00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:31,879
Speaker 2: extreme despite just a terrible defense. They rank second and

463
00:22:31,920 --> 00:22:36,600
Speaker 2: takeaway second interceptions and they're plus five turnover margin through

464
00:22:36,720 --> 00:22:40,679
Speaker 2: four games. That's not sustainable. Now, Russell Wilson's doc going

465
00:22:40,720 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 2: to turn the ball over and they're gonna be around

466
00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,159
Speaker 2: plus ten plus twelve is what I project them at,

467
00:22:45,200 --> 00:22:49,160
Speaker 2: but not over plus one per game on average. So look,

468
00:22:49,200 --> 00:22:51,320
Speaker 2: and then also the Vikings have some positive aggression coming

469
00:22:51,359 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 2: their way. Their minus three minus four and turnovers. They've

470
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 2: been the unluckiest team in hidden yards, hidden points on

471
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,840
Speaker 2: special teams by about four or five points. That's things

472
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:03,320
Speaker 2: out of your control, opponent field goals, opponent punts, opponent kickoffs.

473
00:23:03,720 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 2: So look, I'm throw out the narrative street Russell Wilson's

474
00:23:07,320 --> 00:23:09,119
Speaker 2: twenty two to nine and three against the spread at

475
00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:11,680
Speaker 2: prime time. Cousins is seven fifteen against the spread. And

476
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,600
Speaker 2: prime time. I don't care. What is it past cousins

477
00:23:13,600 --> 00:23:17,560
Speaker 2: of bedtime. Russell Wilson tries harder at night. I don't

478
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:19,560
Speaker 2: see it. Zimmer as the dog is. I can make

479
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,679
Speaker 2: cases for the Vikings here. Trend wise as well. The

480
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:26,440
Speaker 2: Seahawks and the Vikings are both plus point four net

481
00:23:26,520 --> 00:23:30,480
Speaker 2: yards per play, They're both top five offenses and yards

482
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,640
Speaker 2: per play, and they're both bottom five defenses. So these

483
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:36,639
Speaker 2: teams are not that different. The Seahawks are four to

484
00:23:36,720 --> 00:23:38,959
Speaker 2: zero against the spread. I'm sure Russell Wilson will make

485
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 2: some plays against the Vikings secondary, but I'm sure Minnesota

486
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 2: will move the ball. Last year was thirty seven point

487
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:48,280
Speaker 2: thirty Seattle one in a shootout, and Minnesota turned the

488
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:50,760
Speaker 2: ball over four times in their own territory, including a

489
00:23:50,760 --> 00:23:53,119
Speaker 2: turnover on downs. This game should go right down to

490
00:23:53,160 --> 00:23:55,159
Speaker 2: the wire and the kicker at the end of it.

491
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 2: All I need to do, for the most part, is

492
00:23:57,440 --> 00:23:59,600
Speaker 2: not have the Seahawks win by two possessions or more

493
00:24:00,080 --> 00:24:03,680
Speaker 2: night on that two times in their last eighteen victories

494
00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 2: over the past three seasons. Give me the Vikings anything

495
00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:07,840
Speaker 2: seven or aboves.

496
00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, in that game that you just mentioned, the thirty

497
00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:13,000
Speaker 3: seven to thirty game. Dalvin Cook got injured in that

498
00:24:13,040 --> 00:24:14,360
Speaker 3: game as well. I believe so.

499
00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:15,639
Speaker 2: Fald didn't play.

500
00:24:15,960 --> 00:24:20,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Minnesota was down on offense. The total is

501
00:24:20,600 --> 00:24:23,119
Speaker 3: sky high, fifty seven and a half. You kind of

502
00:24:23,119 --> 00:24:26,480
Speaker 3: mentioned the trends. I'll just throw some out there, fading

503
00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 3: teams on a roll, teams that have covered by an

504
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 3: average of five points or more. If you fade those teams,

505
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,400
Speaker 3: you're ninety seven fifty two and four sixty five percent

506
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:40,440
Speaker 3: against the spread going back to two thousand and three.

507
00:24:41,320 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 4: You did mention Cousins.

508
00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:46,080
Speaker 3: Always find it interesting he is twelve and twenty five

509
00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,520
Speaker 3: against the spread outside of the one pm window, just period,

510
00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:52,040
Speaker 3: not even primetime, but just anything that's not a one

511
00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:53,320
Speaker 3: pm thirty two percent.

512
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 4: But here's one that's I've heard talked about.

513
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 2: They're usually not an over touchdown dog, like I'm not expecting.

514
00:24:59,240 --> 00:24:59,600
Speaker 2: I don't right.

515
00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:02,760
Speaker 3: Here's what I wanted to touch on really quick, and

516
00:25:02,800 --> 00:25:05,160
Speaker 3: maybe it kind of relates to the total, but wanted

517
00:25:05,200 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 3: to get your thoughts on this.

518
00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 4: I've heard it talked about.

519
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:09,520
Speaker 3: I don't know quite what to make of it, but

520
00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,040
Speaker 3: Minnesota's outdoors has struggled at times. They're two and eight

521
00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:17,440
Speaker 3: against the spread in their last ten outdoors, including twenty

522
00:25:17,480 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 3: one to seven loss to Seattle thirty seven thirty as

523
00:25:19,720 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 3: you mentioned to Seattle. Is there anything to that or

524
00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,560
Speaker 3: is that just kind of variance with the Vikings.

525
00:25:25,840 --> 00:25:27,879
Speaker 2: No, I mean, based on the way that they play,

526
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:30,880
Speaker 2: I don't think that there's anything to that. A lot

527
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:34,359
Speaker 2: of times you'll see like these outdoors or you know,

528
00:25:34,480 --> 00:25:39,720
Speaker 2: travel stats, they're more related to weather than anything else.

529
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 2: It's not like they're to spread you out. We're gonna

530
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:47,040
Speaker 2: downfield passing attack that would drive indoors. You know, in

531
00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,640
Speaker 2: nice weather, you know, there are a grind you out

532
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 2: team play action pass, tough defense. So I don't see

533
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 2: anything to that. But I actually have seen that stat

534
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:57,760
Speaker 2: and I think it's more noise of Minnesota.

535
00:25:58,200 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I would expect Minnesota to throw a ton

536
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:04,600
Speaker 3: because Seattle. The one probably you know, bright spot for

537
00:26:04,640 --> 00:26:07,880
Speaker 3: their defense thus far has been their run defense. It's

538
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 3: been a lot better than their pass defense, which isn't

539
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 3: really saying much, but they are number six and DVOA

540
00:26:14,080 --> 00:26:15,960
Speaker 3: against the run, number twenty nine against the pass. So

541
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 3: I think this is another aggressive game for Mike Zimmer

542
00:26:20,359 --> 00:26:22,840
Speaker 3: and they know that they aren't gonna win, like, you know,

543
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 3: twenty to seventeen against Seattle. So yeah, I would probably

544
00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:30,400
Speaker 3: lean over, even though it's a high number. Let's go

545
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 3: to my number one pick and the number two overall

546
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 3: pick in the week five Sunday six pack. I am

547
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:43,639
Speaker 3: going with the Carolina Panthers. We are fading dan Quinn again.

548
00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 3: And listen, look at the Panthers. You know they start

549
00:26:47,840 --> 00:26:50,120
Speaker 3: the year slow, they lose to the Raiders. You think,

550
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:52,520
Speaker 3: oh man, you know they're gonna be the one of

551
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,600
Speaker 3: the leagus worst teams. You look up and they're you know,

552
00:26:55,680 --> 00:26:58,640
Speaker 3: they're coming off two straight wins. They upset Arizona last

553
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 3: week nineteen in dva are the Panthers fourteenth on offense,

554
00:27:04,320 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 3: twenty eighth on defense, nineteen special teams. That's eight spots

555
00:27:08,320 --> 00:27:11,520
Speaker 3: better than the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are twenty first

556
00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 3: on offense, and that's with Calvin Ridley going nuts well

557
00:27:14,480 --> 00:27:17,640
Speaker 3: until Monday night anyway, twenty fifth on defense and twenty

558
00:27:17,640 --> 00:27:20,160
Speaker 3: eighth on special team. The Falcons are the only team

559
00:27:20,200 --> 00:27:23,840
Speaker 3: in the league that's bottom twenty and all three facets

560
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 3: in DVOA. I don't think the Falcons are the better

561
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 3: team in this matchup. I know they're at home, but

562
00:27:29,160 --> 00:27:32,560
Speaker 3: that really doesn't mean anything for them. This is a

563
00:27:32,600 --> 00:27:35,960
Speaker 3: team that's you know, found ways to lose games throughout

564
00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:40,080
Speaker 3: dan Quinn's tenure. So I'm taking the Panthers here. I

565
00:27:40,080 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 3: would I expect the Panthers to win this game. Quite honestly,

566
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:47,800
Speaker 3: there are just some ridiculous numbers that just point straight

567
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:50,199
Speaker 3: to the head coach, you know, beyond the fact that

568
00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 3: the Falcons are a bottom six team in the league.

569
00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:56,199
Speaker 3: If you faded dan Quinn in every game against the

570
00:27:56,240 --> 00:28:00,280
Speaker 3: spread before December when he was a favorite, he would

571
00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:04,439
Speaker 3: be twenty six to nine seventy four percent. Dan Quinn

572
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,679
Speaker 3: is over his last eight at covering as a favorite

573
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,960
Speaker 3: before we get to December, when the line's just morphed,

574
00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,080
Speaker 3: you know, the other way, after the Falcons disappointed so

575
00:28:14,119 --> 00:28:17,240
Speaker 3: many times, He's one in ten in his last eleven

576
00:28:17,680 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 3: as a favorite before December against the spread. He doesn't

577
00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:25,399
Speaker 3: get his team up after a loss. Coming off a loss,

578
00:28:25,440 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 3: you have guys like Sean Payton and Belichick that tend

579
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,160
Speaker 3: to cover at a high rate off a straight up loss.

580
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,840
Speaker 3: In his career, dan Quinn is fifteen to twenty four

581
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:37,639
Speaker 3: against the spread. Thirty eight percent. It's it just doesn't

582
00:28:37,720 --> 00:28:40,920
Speaker 3: stop with this guy in the ways that his team,

583
00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 3: despite a strong offense, you would think, I know, Julio's

584
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 3: banged up, and you know, Ridley struggled a little bit

585
00:28:47,600 --> 00:28:50,520
Speaker 3: with more defensive attention. But a team with this kind

586
00:28:50,560 --> 00:28:55,320
Speaker 3: of offense consistently falls short against the number. And it's

587
00:28:55,360 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 3: because of the coaching, and it's because of the defense.

588
00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,760
Speaker 3: And we'll see what's up with Keanu. But they lost

589
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:04,680
Speaker 3: another safety KZ on Monday Night football.

590
00:29:04,720 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 4: The defenses is, you know.

591
00:29:06,840 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 3: Right where it is. Every year it seems like banged up,

592
00:29:10,360 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 3: not very good. Teddy Bridgewater averaging you know, eight yards

593
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 3: in attempt. I think this Panthers offense, you know, using

594
00:29:16,960 --> 00:29:20,080
Speaker 3: Robbie Anderson as a as a true receiver and not

595
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 3: just a deep threat. I think this Panthers offense is

596
00:29:23,080 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 3: going to be able to score with the Falcons, and

597
00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 3: I think they're a better team.

598
00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:28,520
Speaker 4: On both sides of ball.

599
00:29:28,560 --> 00:29:30,360
Speaker 3: They'll get no pressure, and I think it will be

600
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:32,200
Speaker 3: a high scoring game. We'll talk about that in a bit,

601
00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:35,240
Speaker 3: but I just think that the Panthers are a better

602
00:29:35,280 --> 00:29:36,800
Speaker 3: team that the numbers back it up.

603
00:29:37,400 --> 00:29:39,440
Speaker 4: So I am going to go with them as my

604
00:29:39,520 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 4: number one.

605
00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,479
Speaker 3: Pick, and an interesting trend because I thought, you know,

606
00:29:43,880 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 3: it was probably not smart. It's probably not smart to

607
00:29:46,880 --> 00:29:49,640
Speaker 3: go against an zero to four team in week five.

608
00:29:49,720 --> 00:29:52,400
Speaker 3: I thought, you know, probably there's going to be value.

609
00:29:52,120 --> 00:29:52,959
Speaker 4: On the Falcons.

610
00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 2: But I looked it up.

611
00:29:54,680 --> 00:29:59,040
Speaker 4: When a road team goes to face a winless home

612
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:02,680
Speaker 4: team in week five, the road team is sixteen and

613
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:06,600
Speaker 4: four against the spread with one push eighty percent since

614
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:07,760
Speaker 4: two thousand and three.

615
00:30:08,160 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 3: Still a small sample, but you know, this is actually

616
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:15,040
Speaker 3: a value spot for the road teams. In this spot,

617
00:30:15,280 --> 00:30:18,280
Speaker 3: you also have the total jump up a ton over

618
00:30:18,360 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 3: three points. It jumped up, and in those situations it's

619
00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 3: usually because of you know, you can usually count on

620
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,720
Speaker 3: the underdog, you know, kind of being undervalued when the

621
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 3: line opened forty nine and twenty seven are underdog since

622
00:30:32,200 --> 00:30:34,640
Speaker 3: two thousand and three when the line moves up three plus.

623
00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:37,840
Speaker 3: And of course we have Teddy seventy seven percent thirty

624
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 3: nine against the spread in his career. But overall, I

625
00:30:40,680 --> 00:30:44,240
Speaker 3: just think this Panther team is no worse than the Falcons,

626
00:30:44,280 --> 00:30:47,560
Speaker 3: I'll put it that way. Falcons home field advantage hasn't

627
00:30:47,560 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 3: meant much.

628
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 4: They can cough up a lead.

629
00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,960
Speaker 3: Any which way, this may be the game, This may

630
00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 3: be the Dan Clinton gets fired game. Give me the

631
00:30:55,320 --> 00:30:57,880
Speaker 3: Panthers plus one and a half.

632
00:30:58,320 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 4: Do you have any idea how disrespectful that is?

633
00:31:03,120 --> 00:31:06,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I originally made this three and a four,

634
00:31:07,120 --> 00:31:10,600
Speaker 2: but I to downgrade the Falcons plus they're not healthy.

635
00:31:11,080 --> 00:31:12,760
Speaker 2: You know, Julio Jones might not know. They're a short

636
00:31:12,800 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 2: week too. After that Monday night game against Screen Bay. Look,

637
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,480
Speaker 2: they were playing without two corners, they were playing without

638
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,240
Speaker 2: two safeties, and then they had two safeties get hurt

639
00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:24,840
Speaker 2: during the game and Hawkins didn't practice with a concussion

640
00:31:24,880 --> 00:31:28,320
Speaker 2: today probably will miss. I mean they had to redo

641
00:31:28,400 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 2: their entire defense. I mean it was you want to

642
00:31:31,640 --> 00:31:34,920
Speaker 2: know why, You know, Green Bay could just throw it

643
00:31:34,960 --> 00:31:40,200
Speaker 2: to you know, their Bobby Bob Big Bob and Big

644
00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,160
Speaker 2: Bob Tanyan and their running backs were just wide open.

645
00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:44,640
Speaker 2: I mean there was no communication. They were trying to

646
00:31:44,680 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 2: play man to man. No one knew who to cover.

647
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,920
Speaker 2: So this second, now you're on a short week trying

648
00:31:48,960 --> 00:31:50,560
Speaker 2: to fix this, and I don't know who's going to play.

649
00:31:50,880 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 2: I would imagine Julio makes it out too. It's just

650
00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 2: it's a mess in Atlanta right now. I can't get

651
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:58,640
Speaker 2: behind that team at all. So I don't blame you

652
00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 2: for going for back in Carol, who does look a

653
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 2: little better than I was projecting. And I think there's

654
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 2: steps done a good job for all of the turnover

655
00:32:05,200 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 2: that they've had. I just wish they got another linebacker

656
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,080
Speaker 2: besides to your White had to replace Keith Le's predictably

657
00:32:11,160 --> 00:32:13,400
Speaker 2: been the worst linebacker in the NFL so far in

658
00:32:13,400 --> 00:32:15,320
Speaker 2: the middle of that fourth three. But I don't hate

659
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,280
Speaker 2: it at all. Fading dan Quinn right now is just I.

660
00:32:18,240 --> 00:32:20,440
Speaker 4: Mean, it's unbelievable. Like when you go to the Action.

661
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:23,400
Speaker 3: Network app, if you open that trend that I created

662
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:27,000
Speaker 3: with dan Quinn as a favorite before December, you literally

663
00:32:27,040 --> 00:32:29,560
Speaker 3: just see a whole whist of green, like there doesn't

664
00:32:29,640 --> 00:32:32,720
Speaker 3: there's not even a red in the screen on your iPhone.

665
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,720
Speaker 4: Like that's how ridiculous it is. I'm riding it.

666
00:32:37,240 --> 00:32:40,680
Speaker 2: All right. For my second pick and the third pick

667
00:32:40,760 --> 00:32:44,440
Speaker 2: of the Sunday six pack, I'm going with a team

668
00:32:44,440 --> 00:32:47,480
Speaker 2: I don't think i've ever bet on here on the podcast.

669
00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 2: The Houston Texans usually take them. I'm going with the

670
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,840
Speaker 2: Houston Texans minus six and a half. I bet MGM

671
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,880
Speaker 2: at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. I got this following

672
00:32:57,920 --> 00:32:59,440
Speaker 2: the action app. I got this at six early in

673
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:02,640
Speaker 2: the week. I make it over seven. Bill O'Brien, he's gone.

674
00:33:02,760 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 2: I'd off the back, Bill O'Brien. Now it's Romeo Crenell.

675
00:33:06,240 --> 00:33:08,240
Speaker 2: So what I did this week is I went back

676
00:33:08,320 --> 00:33:13,080
Speaker 2: and I looked historically at what teams have done the

677
00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:16,760
Speaker 2: week after they fired their coach in season. It's happened

678
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 2: twenty eight times since two thousand and three. I went

679
00:33:20,080 --> 00:33:24,000
Speaker 2: into our bet Labs database and pulled all the results.

680
00:33:24,000 --> 00:33:27,640
Speaker 2: Those teams went twelve and sixteen straight up and fourteen

681
00:33:27,680 --> 00:33:31,280
Speaker 2: and fourteen against the spread. You might say, well that's horrible. Well,

682
00:33:31,400 --> 00:33:34,160
Speaker 2: you know it's a forty three percent win percentage. Well

683
00:33:34,480 --> 00:33:36,120
Speaker 2: you have to remember that the coaches got fired. These

684
00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,320
Speaker 2: are usually bad teams. Those teams had a twenty seven

685
00:33:39,400 --> 00:33:42,479
Speaker 2: percent win percentage prior to the coaching change, and they

686
00:33:42,480 --> 00:33:45,640
Speaker 2: were thirty eight percent against the spread. On average. They

687
00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,400
Speaker 2: closed as four and a half five point underdogs. That

688
00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:51,320
Speaker 2: implies a win probability of about thirty five percent. So

689
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 2: over twenty eight games, thirty five percent win probability, you

690
00:33:54,200 --> 00:33:59,120
Speaker 2: expect to win about nine point eight ten games. Well,

691
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,040
Speaker 2: they won twelve, and you might say, well, there could

692
00:34:01,040 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 2: be out leaders in there skewing that. So I went

693
00:34:03,440 --> 00:34:05,760
Speaker 2: back and just looked at all the closing spreads, calculated

694
00:34:05,800 --> 00:34:09,839
Speaker 2: the implied win probabilities. They won twelve games, and they

695
00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:12,359
Speaker 2: were implied to win about right around ten. So they

696
00:34:12,400 --> 00:34:16,000
Speaker 2: won two more games than they were projected to a

697
00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: lot of noise in that small sample size, but it

698
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:20,680
Speaker 2: does hint at the fact that for the just that

699
00:34:20,840 --> 00:34:23,759
Speaker 2: next game, there is a positive bump to the team

700
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,840
Speaker 2: after coach Chase. You could say it's morale, right, we

701
00:34:26,880 --> 00:34:30,520
Speaker 2: wanted Bill O'Brien gone. Maybe the locker room gets better, maybe,

702
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,880
Speaker 2: But I think it's more just okay, we can correct

703
00:34:32,880 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 2: some things, you know, some play calling things, some basic things,

704
00:34:36,840 --> 00:34:40,359
Speaker 2: and more importantly new looks. So you're gonna have some

705
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:42,240
Speaker 2: new looks. You're gonna try new things that other teams

706
00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 2: don't have film on you for that one game. Right,

707
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:47,320
Speaker 2: so you have a new coach, you can you're gonna

708
00:34:47,520 --> 00:34:49,960
Speaker 2: mix up your play calling, you're gonna try different things

709
00:34:49,960 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 2: that your first game is a new coach, it's it's

710
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 2: harder to prepare for you from a game plan perspective,

711
00:34:55,080 --> 00:34:57,040
Speaker 2: So I think that it does work in the text

712
00:34:57,040 --> 00:35:00,200
Speaker 2: and savior, especially from what I've seen for Bill O'Brien week.

713
00:35:00,200 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 2: He's running the ball, not attacking the Vikings young secondary,

714
00:35:03,200 --> 00:35:06,040
Speaker 2: the in game decisions, the strategic decisions the game, the

715
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,279
Speaker 2: play calling been bad, So I think removing him out

716
00:35:09,280 --> 00:35:11,120
Speaker 2: of the equations only going to help. We won't even

717
00:35:11,160 --> 00:35:12,960
Speaker 2: get into his GM decisions. I mean, the team's zero

718
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,280
Speaker 2: to four and the Dolphins are their first two draft

719
00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:18,400
Speaker 2: picks this coming year. But then on the surface, the Jacks,

720
00:35:18,400 --> 00:35:21,279
Speaker 2: the Jacks them sticks sticks. Look the first weekend they

721
00:35:21,320 --> 00:35:22,920
Speaker 2: beat the Colts. We talked about it. They got at

722
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 2: game by two hundred yards, lucky win. Minshew, Magic's over.

723
00:35:26,200 --> 00:35:28,400
Speaker 2: They got dominated by of the Dolphins. They got dominated

724
00:35:28,440 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 2: by the Bengals. Their defense is horrendous. This is the

725
00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 2: worst defense in the NFL. It should be. They got

726
00:35:34,200 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 2: rid of all their good players. You know, Miles Jack's

727
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:37,880
Speaker 2: playing at a really high level at giving gret up,

728
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:40,160
Speaker 2: but he's hurt. He might not even play. Henderson their

729
00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:43,239
Speaker 2: rookie corner. He's playing okay for rookie, but he might

730
00:35:43,239 --> 00:35:46,320
Speaker 2: not play. He's hurt. They have no know their defensive

731
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,520
Speaker 2: line is terrible. Outside of Josh Allen trying to create

732
00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:51,920
Speaker 2: some pressure, they have other corners that are hurt. You

733
00:35:51,960 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 2: might see Claybrooks in there, a seventh round draft pick,

734
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:57,160
Speaker 2: was more of a return man. He got abused last

735
00:35:57,160 --> 00:35:59,920
Speaker 2: week by Cincy who just did whatever they wanted against

736
00:36:00,400 --> 00:36:04,120
Speaker 2: and Jackson also made since he's offensive line but competent.

737
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:06,840
Speaker 2: This is a bad team, a bad defense. Give me

738
00:36:06,880 --> 00:36:09,920
Speaker 2: the Texans anything under seven in a good spot here

739
00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 2: at OZ and four. Remember they did have played the Chiefs,

740
00:36:11,960 --> 00:36:15,399
Speaker 2: the Steelers, and the Ravens to start the year, and

741
00:36:15,840 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 2: they have had no turnovers so far. They've played good teams,

742
00:36:18,440 --> 00:36:20,439
Speaker 2: so the only team that fell about a turnover. They're

743
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:22,960
Speaker 2: gonna schedules is gonna ease up. They're gonna get some turnovers.

744
00:36:23,400 --> 00:36:26,120
Speaker 2: Red zone regression is gonna happen. Give me the better quarterback,

745
00:36:26,560 --> 00:36:28,360
Speaker 2: the better offense that should be able to attack this

746
00:36:28,480 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 2: Jacksonville defense at will should come out inspired under a

747
00:36:31,560 --> 00:36:34,759
Speaker 2: new coach own four against a bad team. Uh, this

748
00:36:34,800 --> 00:36:36,560
Speaker 2: has the potential to get ugly. Give me Houston.

749
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:42,200
Speaker 3: This one scares me like it's like Jacksonville is not

750
00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:45,440
Speaker 3: very good. I think Minshew is actually pretty good or

751
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 3: he's decent.

752
00:36:46,080 --> 00:36:47,120
Speaker 4: I think I should.

753
00:36:46,840 --> 00:36:50,200
Speaker 3: Say if you look at his overall efficiency numbers, you

754
00:36:50,200 --> 00:36:52,319
Speaker 3: know he's had a rough week or two here and there,

755
00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,360
Speaker 3: but that Miami game was bad with with the center

756
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:57,439
Speaker 3: out and the center winder may still be out, which

757
00:36:57,480 --> 00:37:01,640
Speaker 3: which could be big. I think Cam Rod, Yeah, Champa Robinson.

758
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 3: You know, Houston worries me at this point too. I

759
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:08,799
Speaker 3: don't know, like Romeo Crenell is just not a guy

760
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:11,759
Speaker 3: that like inspires much confidence. He's actually lost his last

761
00:37:11,760 --> 00:37:14,239
Speaker 3: four against the spread, three and three and eight in

762
00:37:14,280 --> 00:37:17,200
Speaker 3: his last twelve. I mean, this is this game could

763
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,759
Speaker 3: go so many ways and dv away and again, I think,

764
00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 3: you know, early in the year, even with the schedule adjustment,

765
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 3: it's gonna hard, it's gonna be hard to you know,

766
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:29,320
Speaker 3: get the full capture. You know just how tough houston

767
00:37:29,360 --> 00:37:33,880
Speaker 3: schedule was. But Jacksonville's fifteenth in overall DVOA and Houston's

768
00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:39,279
Speaker 3: twenty first, Jacksonville's number six on offense, Houston's twentieth. You

769
00:37:39,320 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 3: know this, I just I don't know what to expect

770
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:45,440
Speaker 3: from Houston. JJ Watt called out O'Brien. Apparently that's what

771
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 3: led to the firing, so I think you will see

772
00:37:48,600 --> 00:37:50,520
Speaker 3: energy and effort from Houston.

773
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,440
Speaker 4: But I also don't think this is a gimme game either.

774
00:37:53,560 --> 00:37:56,000
Speaker 3: You also have that you know the spot with the

775
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:59,160
Speaker 3: sixteen and four ats with you know, road teams going

776
00:37:59,200 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 3: to visit a win with home team. So I don't

777
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:06,360
Speaker 3: know what to expect for this one. It's probably a

778
00:38:06,400 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 3: stay away from me and West of Wine just gets

779
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 3: crazy to to like eight or something like that. I

780
00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:14,200
Speaker 3: may try Jacksonville, but at this number, this is a

781
00:38:14,280 --> 00:38:16,560
Speaker 3: high range of outcomes game for me.

782
00:38:17,400 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 2: I just I just am very confident the Texans offense

783
00:38:19,880 --> 00:38:21,680
Speaker 2: is gonna go off. I mean they made Ryan Fitzpatrick.

784
00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 2: Look at the Hall of Famer. Web's doing whatever we

785
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:27,480
Speaker 2: wanted in that first half. Deshaun Watson should he He's

786
00:38:27,480 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 2: not gonna be under a ton of pressure against this

787
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 2: Jacksonville team, and I'm removing O'Brien, so give me the Texans.

788
00:38:33,640 --> 00:38:36,000
Speaker 5: Hope you're enjoying this great action network podcast. I want

789
00:38:36,000 --> 00:38:38,160
Speaker 5: to make sure you know about the Locked On podcast

790
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 5: network locked On as a daily podcast on your favorite team.

791
00:38:41,680 --> 00:38:43,400
Speaker 2: Welcome to you, Lockdown forty nine ers.

792
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,080
Speaker 4: You are locked own of the Dallas marriage Well, came

793
00:38:45,120 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 4: everybody to the Locked On Lakers podcast Let's Go.

794
00:38:48,000 --> 00:38:50,920
Speaker 5: Locked On podcasts are hosted by the local experts who

795
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:53,160
Speaker 5: know your team better than anyone and give you the

796
00:38:53,239 --> 00:38:56,000
Speaker 5: inside scoop. So go to your podcast app and search

797
00:38:56,200 --> 00:38:57,839
Speaker 5: locked on your favorite team.

798
00:38:57,960 --> 00:38:59,799
Speaker 4: Subscribe to your locked on.

799
00:39:03,960 --> 00:39:07,799
Speaker 3: All Right. For my second pick and the fourth pick

800
00:39:07,960 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 3: in the week five Sunday six pack, I am going

801
00:39:11,360 --> 00:39:16,120
Speaker 3: with the Cleveland Browns plus two against the Indianapolis Colts.

802
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 4: The Browns are home dogs.

803
00:39:17,760 --> 00:39:21,279
Speaker 3: Here in this spot, and I've always been a little

804
00:39:21,280 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 3: bit lower, I think, on the Colts than consensus kind

805
00:39:23,920 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 3: of coming into the year. Bet against them in that

806
00:39:26,160 --> 00:39:29,919
Speaker 3: Jacksonville game. Unfortunately, also bet against them in the Minnesota game.

807
00:39:30,520 --> 00:39:32,880
Speaker 4: But I think this is the time.

808
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:35,920
Speaker 3: When you have to sell high in the Colts. They

809
00:39:36,320 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 3: collapse in that Jacksonville game, the game they should have

810
00:39:38,600 --> 00:39:41,799
Speaker 3: won turnovers, They lose the game even though they outgained them.

811
00:39:42,000 --> 00:39:44,440
Speaker 3: But then they play, you know, they play the Jets,

812
00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:47,399
Speaker 3: they play the Chicago Bears, you know, two teams that

813
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:50,120
Speaker 3: they can they're you know, the Coats defense is really

814
00:39:50,160 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 3: going to shine in those games. The offense doesn't have

815
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:56,680
Speaker 3: to do too much and you know, the Minnesota game

816
00:39:56,760 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 3: really looks more and more like they're only but he win.

817
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,160
Speaker 3: And that was even at a time when Minnesota was

818
00:40:02,160 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 3: still going through some things, as you have pointed out.

819
00:40:05,040 --> 00:40:08,600
Speaker 3: So I'm not buying this Indianapolis team just yet.

820
00:40:08,719 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 4: They're on the road.

821
00:40:09,920 --> 00:40:13,200
Speaker 3: I make this line a pick them, So I'll gladly

822
00:40:13,239 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 3: take the Browns at plus two. I would think about

823
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 3: the money line as well, depending on where it ends

824
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:22,040
Speaker 3: up when when you're listening to this, But you look

825
00:40:22,040 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 3: at Indianapolis, for as good as their defense has been,

826
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:28,120
Speaker 3: and it's been excellent on offense, they could play a

827
00:40:28,239 --> 00:40:31,440
Speaker 3: very close game and end up losing just because they're

828
00:40:31,520 --> 00:40:34,600
Speaker 3: thirtieth and third down offense, so you know, they haven't

829
00:40:34,600 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 3: really had to convert a ton because they played the

830
00:40:36,640 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 3: Bears and the Jets and the defense does the work.

831
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 3: And this team, this Coats team, is not significantly better

832
00:40:43,840 --> 00:40:46,680
Speaker 3: than this Browns team. Colts are fourth and DVOA. The

833
00:40:46,719 --> 00:40:49,560
Speaker 3: Browns are twelve, but the Colts are just twenty fourth

834
00:40:49,560 --> 00:40:52,240
Speaker 3: in offense. There's no reason you should be twenty fourth

835
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:55,320
Speaker 3: in offensive DVOA. There's no reason you should be thirtieth

836
00:40:55,640 --> 00:40:59,399
Speaker 3: in third down conversion rate. So I think there are

837
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,480
Speaker 3: some some red flags with this Coats team and Cleveland.

838
00:41:03,040 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 4: They can do.

839
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:07,120
Speaker 3: They can run the ball, which even without Nick Chubb,

840
00:41:07,680 --> 00:41:10,080
Speaker 3: they're gonna have Kareem Hunt, which it's big for them

841
00:41:10,120 --> 00:41:13,280
Speaker 3: to have that depth. Cleveland is number one and early

842
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:16,200
Speaker 3: down success rate on run plays. So the Colts have

843
00:41:16,200 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 3: been a top three defense, uh, you know against the

844
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:20,120
Speaker 3: run on early downs.

845
00:41:20,160 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 4: But you know, the Browns are a team that's.

846
00:41:22,239 --> 00:41:24,680
Speaker 3: Gonna be able to get you know, four yards a

847
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,840
Speaker 3: pop against this defense, you know, on early downs, and

848
00:41:27,840 --> 00:41:30,359
Speaker 3: that changes things with because the Colts are mediocre when

849
00:41:30,400 --> 00:41:32,160
Speaker 3: it comes to their past success rate.

850
00:41:32,480 --> 00:41:34,840
Speaker 4: And so I think this is how you meet the Coats.

851
00:41:34,880 --> 00:41:38,360
Speaker 3: You you kind of run on them just enough to

852
00:41:38,880 --> 00:41:41,640
Speaker 3: keep the game close, and you you know you're gonna

853
00:41:41,640 --> 00:41:43,480
Speaker 3: be able to convert some third downs. You're gonna be able,

854
00:41:43,600 --> 00:41:45,560
Speaker 3: You're gonna be able to stop them on some third downs.

855
00:41:45,920 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 3: And the wild card you always are gonna have that

856
00:41:48,440 --> 00:41:52,320
Speaker 3: SIW what rivers potential turnover looming? Now Mayfield is the

857
00:41:52,320 --> 00:41:54,879
Speaker 3: same way. But the thing is Cleveland's a home dog

858
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 3: in this spot.

859
00:41:55,520 --> 00:41:56,200
Speaker 4: You know, if it was.

860
00:41:56,200 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 3: The opposite way, I'd probably going with Indianapolis. But we're

861
00:41:59,760 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 3: talking about Cleveland is a home dog in a game

862
00:42:01,680 --> 00:42:04,240
Speaker 3: that I have rated as a pick them. Colts also

863
00:42:04,680 --> 00:42:09,040
Speaker 3: left tackle Anthony Costanzo on the injury report, linebacker Darius Leonard,

864
00:42:09,040 --> 00:42:13,279
Speaker 3: and linebacker Bobby Ocariki. Those are three of their most

865
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:16,200
Speaker 3: important players, guys that play a ton of snaps. So

866
00:42:16,480 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 3: you know Costanzo, Iffy Wonard, same thing.

867
00:42:20,840 --> 00:42:21,759
Speaker 4: So we'll see about that.

868
00:42:21,880 --> 00:42:25,360
Speaker 3: But not a good spot to me for the Colts

869
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,759
Speaker 3: going on the road to face this Cleveland team that

870
00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:31,640
Speaker 3: scored you know, thirty plus and three straight games. They're

871
00:42:31,680 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 3: getting it together on offense, and I just worry that

872
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 3: some of the Colts deficiencies and kind of underwhelmingness on

873
00:42:39,440 --> 00:42:41,959
Speaker 3: that offensive side of the ball with that twenty fourth

874
00:42:42,040 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 3: ranked unit will come out in this game. And if

875
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,799
Speaker 3: that comes out, then you see, you could see the

876
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,160
Speaker 3: Rivers turnovers, which haven't been a factor because they've been

877
00:42:50,160 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 3: able to play it close to the vest these last

878
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,120
Speaker 3: few weeks. So give me the Browns plus two home

879
00:42:55,200 --> 00:42:57,200
Speaker 3: dog against the Indianapolis Colts.

880
00:42:57,840 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I completely agree with you. Those those injuries linebacker

881
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:08,040
Speaker 2: are significant for Indianapolis against this really elite rushing attack

882
00:43:08,719 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 2: that this new coaching staff has firing on all cylinders. Look,

883
00:43:12,680 --> 00:43:15,440
Speaker 2: I said, I took a flyer on the Browns fifty

884
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 2: to one to win the Super Bowl. I said, to

885
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,560
Speaker 2: think this is a team that their defense is getting healthier,

886
00:43:20,120 --> 00:43:23,120
Speaker 2: that this staff, all the improvements they can make on

887
00:43:23,160 --> 00:43:26,200
Speaker 2: the offense side the ball, the offensive line, which has

888
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:28,920
Speaker 2: been awesome. It's been a lot better for Mayfield, but

889
00:43:29,040 --> 00:43:31,880
Speaker 2: just putting Mayfield into better situations. The first game against

890
00:43:31,880 --> 00:43:36,160
Speaker 2: the Ravens awful situation with all those changes in the

891
00:43:36,160 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 2: first game of the year. The offense has been really

892
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,360
Speaker 2: good since and that running game against the Colts defense

893
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:45,600
Speaker 2: that has a banged up linebacking corps, they're going to

894
00:43:45,640 --> 00:43:48,440
Speaker 2: be able to eat. And Look, I'm sure Indianapolis is

895
00:43:48,440 --> 00:43:50,640
Speaker 2: gonna be able to run the ball some too, But

896
00:43:51,160 --> 00:43:54,360
Speaker 2: this Indianapolis secondary, I'm still not sold on it. You

897
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 2: mentioned the schedule, it's been very favorable so far. I

898
00:43:57,600 --> 00:43:59,399
Speaker 2: think the Browns are going to be able to run

899
00:43:59,400 --> 00:44:02,279
Speaker 2: the ball to set up some shots down field. I'm

900
00:44:02,360 --> 00:44:06,719
Speaker 2: sure Matt eber Fluse will have a nice game. A

901
00:44:06,719 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 2: big fan of him, and he's in Ohio, guys, and

902
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,799
Speaker 2: be motivated here to come up with something unique. But

903
00:44:12,160 --> 00:44:13,640
Speaker 2: I think that the Browns be able to move the ball.

904
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 2: I make it Cleveland minus one and a half. So

905
00:44:16,000 --> 00:44:18,239
Speaker 2: I saw plus three minus one twenty and scooped it

906
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:20,960
Speaker 2: right up. I think the Browns are trending up, getting

907
00:44:20,960 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 2: healthier on the defensive side of the ball, and that

908
00:44:23,280 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 2: offensive line is playing well. The play calling is a

909
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:28,399
Speaker 2: lot better, Mayfield's in more comfortable situations, and Chubb getting

910
00:44:28,480 --> 00:44:31,400
Speaker 2: hurt sucks, but it's not that big of a drop

911
00:44:31,400 --> 00:44:34,439
Speaker 2: off to hunt if at ed if at all. So yep,

912
00:44:34,520 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 2: I agree with you on the Browns all right. For

913
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: my third and final pick of the week and the

914
00:44:41,120 --> 00:44:44,080
Speaker 2: fifth pick of the Sunday six pack, I'm going with

915
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,960
Speaker 2: the Washington football team plus seven and a half at

916
00:44:48,000 --> 00:44:52,040
Speaker 2: bet MGM at home against the Los Angeles Rams. I

917
00:44:52,120 --> 00:44:53,919
Speaker 2: make this line closer to five, which is the main

918
00:44:53,960 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 2: reason that I took it. Dwayne Haskins is being benched

919
00:44:58,640 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 2: here for Kyle Allen. I think that there's a stupid move.

920
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 2: I think Dwayne Haskins is a much higher ceiling, and

921
00:45:05,480 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 2: you want to find out if he will be your

922
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,239
Speaker 2: franchise quarterback or not this year. You should keep him in.

923
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:14,800
Speaker 2: But ian haskins current state him compared to Allen yeah,

924
00:45:15,000 --> 00:45:18,080
Speaker 2: pretty much wash and this line's actually come down I

925
00:45:18,120 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 2: think slightly since the announcement, so the market maybe likes

926
00:45:22,040 --> 00:45:23,400
Speaker 2: Kyle all Moore. I don't think there's not much of

927
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:27,120
Speaker 2: a difference between current version of Dwayne Haskins and Kyle Allen.

928
00:45:27,320 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 2: I'm not a fan of either of them right now.

929
00:45:29,320 --> 00:45:33,560
Speaker 2: But this Rams offense was doing some great things early on.

930
00:45:34,120 --> 00:45:36,560
Speaker 2: Sean McVay switched up a lot of things to protect

931
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 2: his offensive line, to protect golf, short passing, new running attack,

932
00:45:42,280 --> 00:45:44,279
Speaker 2: but teams are starting to get filmed on that. They

933
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,879
Speaker 2: didn't have much success against the Giants last week. The

934
00:45:47,920 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 2: football team's defense has been really good, especially against the

935
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:54,960
Speaker 2: pass top five DVOA against the pass top five. I

936
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:58,160
Speaker 2: think overall we know about their defensive line. That's where

937
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 2: I think that they're going to dominate this game. They

938
00:46:00,320 --> 00:46:04,480
Speaker 2: can disrupt the Los Angeles offense attack not only off

939
00:46:04,480 --> 00:46:08,280
Speaker 2: the edges, but also up the middle where Los Angeles

940
00:46:08,360 --> 00:46:10,120
Speaker 2: is really weak, and they're going to get an immediate

941
00:46:10,160 --> 00:46:13,440
Speaker 2: push up the middle and blow up what the Rams

942
00:46:13,480 --> 00:46:15,880
Speaker 2: want to do. You know, I don't obviously love the

943
00:46:16,000 --> 00:46:19,520
Speaker 2: Washington offense. I think that this game, you know, I

944
00:46:19,560 --> 00:46:22,640
Speaker 2: think that Washington will be able to find enough points

945
00:46:22,640 --> 00:46:25,680
Speaker 2: here to at least stay within a touchdown. Wouldn't shock

946
00:46:25,760 --> 00:46:28,279
Speaker 2: me if they won out right. They forced Golf into

947
00:46:28,320 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 2: a couple of mistakes here. I think this line's way

948
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:34,239
Speaker 2: too high at seven or higher, but especially at seven

949
00:46:34,280 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 2: and a half. I make it closer to five. So

950
00:46:37,160 --> 00:46:40,640
Speaker 2: give me Kyle Allen and the Washington football team as

951
00:46:40,680 --> 00:46:41,399
Speaker 2: my third pick.

952
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think Haskins, I think you should

953
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:47,080
Speaker 3: have been benched before the year started.

954
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 4: I said, yeah, I agree, he's been awful.

955
00:46:49,480 --> 00:46:51,799
Speaker 2: But like we've seen what Kyle Allen is so it's like.

956
00:46:52,280 --> 00:46:54,480
Speaker 3: Oh, yeah, no, you don't benure for Kyle Iswen Like

957
00:46:54,520 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 3: that makes no sense. But I mean from the perspective

958
00:46:57,239 --> 00:46:58,960
Speaker 3: of is he going to be a franchise quarterback, no,

959
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 3: he's not. Like, look at all the quarterbacks in this

960
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,640
Speaker 3: day and age that are good, and think about when

961
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:09,600
Speaker 3: they have become good. When we have seen the flashes,

962
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:14,600
Speaker 3: I mean Mahomes, Wilson, Uh, even go back to Andrew Luck. Uh.

963
00:47:15,080 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 3: You know all of these quarterbacks. Dak was good, you

964
00:47:18,040 --> 00:47:20,560
Speaker 3: know from the from the jump, Like these guys are

965
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 3: good immediately. It's not taking you know, into the second

966
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:27,359
Speaker 3: year and they're still the worst quarterback in the NFL. Like,

967
00:47:27,600 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 3: you know, this is this is just Sam Darnold all

968
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:32,640
Speaker 3: over again. You're just gonna continue to give him starts

969
00:47:33,160 --> 00:47:37,200
Speaker 3: and he's gonna like, once you get this many dropbacks

970
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 3: you have, you know, three four hundred, a lot of

971
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 3: the numbers start to become predicted for quarterbacks, and Haskins.

972
00:47:43,480 --> 00:47:44,560
Speaker 4: Is the bottom of the league.

973
00:47:44,640 --> 00:47:47,520
Speaker 3: So I get why they benched him from the perspective

974
00:47:47,560 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 3: of he's not gonna be their franchise quarterback. He's not

975
00:47:49,719 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 3: gonna be ready. Any time it's quarterbacks are either ready

976
00:47:53,080 --> 00:47:55,480
Speaker 3: or they're not. You know, it's either it's a have

977
00:47:55,600 --> 00:47:58,640
Speaker 3: and have not league, and Haskins doesn't have it. I

978
00:47:58,680 --> 00:48:01,719
Speaker 3: think Allen's a tiny bit better. If we're talking, you know,

979
00:48:02,120 --> 00:48:04,520
Speaker 3: spread value. These two quarterbacks with the two worst in

980
00:48:04,560 --> 00:48:07,799
Speaker 3: the league and adjusted netyards per attempt last season. That

981
00:48:07,880 --> 00:48:10,840
Speaker 3: being said, actually I think the Rams probably are a

982
00:48:10,880 --> 00:48:13,640
Speaker 3: little bit a little bit overvalued. I actually like the

983
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:17,800
Speaker 3: contrarian over in this game. I think that both teams

984
00:48:18,120 --> 00:48:20,920
Speaker 3: will actually be able to score. I think Allen is

985
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:23,200
Speaker 3: going to play a little bit looser. I think he

986
00:48:23,239 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 3: won't be afraid to target Jayalen Ramsey for better or worse.

987
00:48:26,680 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 3: You know, that might not always turn out, you know,

988
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:32,239
Speaker 3: how they want it. But I think this Washington team,

989
00:48:32,320 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 3: being that there's really no film for McVeigh in that defense,

990
00:48:35,719 --> 00:48:37,640
Speaker 3: and Staley to kind of go off of on Allen

991
00:48:38,080 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 3: with this team as opposed to Haskins, and you know

992
00:48:42,360 --> 00:48:44,520
Speaker 3: they're traveling across the country, I think the defense is

993
00:48:44,520 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 3: going to be a little bit shaky. I think you're

994
00:48:46,960 --> 00:48:49,520
Speaker 3: gonna you could see some points in this one. Both

995
00:48:49,560 --> 00:48:52,640
Speaker 3: of these teams are top eight in situation neutral pace,

996
00:48:53,280 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 3: Washington number three, the Rams number eight. And you have

997
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:02,040
Speaker 3: Kyle Allen because he's turnover prone as well. The overs

998
00:49:02,080 --> 00:49:04,640
Speaker 3: have gone ten and three in his starts, including seven

999
00:49:04,680 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 3: to zero when it's forty seven or below.

1000
00:49:06,760 --> 00:49:08,759
Speaker 4: So I think you will see some points.

1001
00:49:08,800 --> 00:49:11,200
Speaker 3: I think you will see a better Washington offense, a

1002
00:49:11,280 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 3: looser Washington offense. I think Gibson will play better or

1003
00:49:14,480 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 3: be even more involved than you know.

1004
00:49:16,360 --> 00:49:20,920
Speaker 2: Allen has played under Rivera has started before. It's not

1005
00:49:20,960 --> 00:49:23,600
Speaker 2: like you have to treat him with complete kid gloves.

1006
00:49:23,600 --> 00:49:25,239
Speaker 2: So I think that it's a fair assumption that they'll

1007
00:49:25,239 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 2: play pretty similar. And yeah, he might played in looser

1008
00:49:28,200 --> 00:49:29,000
Speaker 2: going downfield.

1009
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:30,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean the thing about what was the number

1010
00:49:30,920 --> 00:49:33,760
Speaker 3: one thing with Haskins a slow decision maker, right, Allen

1011
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:36,319
Speaker 3: is a guy who knows, you know, this offense more

1012
00:49:36,400 --> 00:49:38,080
Speaker 3: or less. He's I think they're going to be able

1013
00:49:38,120 --> 00:49:41,040
Speaker 3: to go faster with him, So yeah, I would expect.

1014
00:49:41,360 --> 00:49:42,839
Speaker 4: I would expect some points. I like it.

1015
00:49:42,840 --> 00:49:44,920
Speaker 3: It's at forty four and a half, so I like

1016
00:49:45,000 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 3: it at that number.

1017
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:50,279
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1034
00:50:41,200 --> 00:50:43,879
Speaker 6: back to the show.

1035
00:50:44,000 --> 00:50:47,920
Speaker 3: For my third and final pick of the week, six

1036
00:50:48,640 --> 00:50:52,080
Speaker 3: Sunday six pack. I am going with the New York

1037
00:50:52,160 --> 00:50:57,680
Speaker 3: Giants plus nine and a half at the Dallas Cowboys.

1038
00:50:58,040 --> 00:51:01,359
Speaker 3: And this is a spot for me where I think

1039
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:03,880
Speaker 3: the number is just too big.

1040
00:51:04,120 --> 00:51:05,239
Speaker 4: I make this line eight.

1041
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:07,480
Speaker 3: This number when it gets to nine or ten is

1042
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,160
Speaker 3: just a really tough one to cover, especially when you

1043
00:51:10,200 --> 00:51:12,719
Speaker 3: look at since twenty fifteen, when they move the extra

1044
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 3: point back, underdogs who are nine to ten point dogs

1045
00:51:18,520 --> 00:51:22,759
Speaker 3: are covering eighty percent thirty five nine and one as

1046
00:51:22,760 --> 00:51:25,799
Speaker 3: long as they open at ten or less. So not

1047
00:51:25,880 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 3: a situation where like the line gets you know, they

1048
00:51:28,080 --> 00:51:30,520
Speaker 3: open massive and the line gets sped down, but the

1049
00:51:30,560 --> 00:51:31,480
Speaker 3: Giants open to ten.

1050
00:51:31,920 --> 00:51:33,280
Speaker 4: It's nine and a half right now.

1051
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:37,280
Speaker 3: Divisional dogs also fifty six percent against the spread September

1052
00:51:37,360 --> 00:51:41,880
Speaker 3: to November. The Giants their offense has been atrocious, but

1053
00:51:42,000 --> 00:51:45,760
Speaker 3: they did face the number three, six, seven, and fifteen

1054
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:51,080
Speaker 3: ranked defenses in DVA and the Steelers forty nine Ers, Bears,

1055
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,719
Speaker 3: and Rams and just without even the numbers, you know,

1056
00:51:54,800 --> 00:51:57,240
Speaker 3: those are four of the best defenses in the league.

1057
00:51:57,440 --> 00:51:58,640
Speaker 4: But Dallas is twenty fourth.

1058
00:51:59,080 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 3: I think you're gonna see a little more offense for

1059
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:06,040
Speaker 3: the Giants. Devonte Freeman actually didn't look bad last week.

1060
00:52:06,200 --> 00:52:09,240
Speaker 3: You know, the Giants were able to hold the Rams close.

1061
00:52:09,280 --> 00:52:10,640
Speaker 3: I think the Rams left a lot of points on

1062
00:52:10,680 --> 00:52:12,919
Speaker 3: the table in that game, but the Giants can play

1063
00:52:12,960 --> 00:52:15,759
Speaker 3: a little bit of run defense, so you know, even

1064
00:52:15,760 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 3: if you get up on them, it's not quite as

1065
00:52:18,719 --> 00:52:19,920
Speaker 3: easy to just pull away.

1066
00:52:20,360 --> 00:52:22,120
Speaker 4: They had one really bad game.

1067
00:52:22,080 --> 00:52:25,080
Speaker 3: Against the spread, that San Francisco game, the Pittsburgh game.

1068
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:26,680
Speaker 3: They lose it by ten, could have been eight if

1069
00:52:26,680 --> 00:52:29,200
Speaker 3: they hit the two pointer. And then they cover against

1070
00:52:29,200 --> 00:52:32,360
Speaker 3: the Bears. They cover against the Rams as big dogs,

1071
00:52:32,840 --> 00:52:35,880
Speaker 3: so I'm expecting them to keep it close in this

1072
00:52:35,960 --> 00:52:39,280
Speaker 3: divisional matchup. And I think you see their best offensive

1073
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:42,040
Speaker 3: performance today, which ain't which isn't saying much.

1074
00:52:42,080 --> 00:52:45,400
Speaker 4: But this Cowboys defense has been shaky.

1075
00:52:45,440 --> 00:52:47,280
Speaker 3: I don't know exactly what the state of the team

1076
00:52:47,360 --> 00:52:50,920
Speaker 3: is right now, coming off that embarrassing loss to Cleveland.

1077
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:54,880
Speaker 4: So yeah, give me the Giants in this divisional matchup.

1078
00:52:55,080 --> 00:52:56,919
Speaker 4: I think they keep it close. Yeah.

1079
00:52:56,960 --> 00:53:01,719
Speaker 2: I mean I have a trouble grading the Cowboys. Their

1080
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:04,279
Speaker 2: defense has been atrocious. I mean, Mike Nolan is not

1081
00:53:04,400 --> 00:53:07,560
Speaker 2: the answer, and they still can't force turnovers every one

1082
00:53:07,560 --> 00:53:09,439
Speaker 2: of the worst teams in the NFL last year and

1083
00:53:09,800 --> 00:53:12,560
Speaker 2: still this year. Their linebackers are all hurt the interior.

1084
00:53:12,600 --> 00:53:14,920
Speaker 2: Their defensive line has been just atrocious. You can just

1085
00:53:15,040 --> 00:53:19,240
Speaker 2: run right over this team. Obviously, their secondary is very young.

1086
00:53:20,640 --> 00:53:22,960
Speaker 2: I mean Jayalen Smith is their only healthy linebacker. He's

1087
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:25,880
Speaker 2: been awful. I mean, I don't think that they're necessarily

1088
00:53:25,960 --> 00:53:28,680
Speaker 2: using him, right, but I don't This defense has been

1089
00:53:29,400 --> 00:53:34,200
Speaker 2: beyond bad, beyond bad. I mean, I can't find anything

1090
00:53:34,280 --> 00:53:37,799
Speaker 2: really positive to say about it their defense. Now, the

1091
00:53:37,960 --> 00:53:43,719
Speaker 2: question is can the Giants capitalize will Dan because look

1092
00:53:43,760 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 2: and on the other side, the Cowboys and I make

1093
00:53:46,160 --> 00:53:48,160
Speaker 2: this line around nine, but I don't see anything. But

1094
00:53:48,360 --> 00:53:52,200
Speaker 2: I might not be downgrading the Cowboys enough. The Cowboys offense,

1095
00:53:52,760 --> 00:53:55,960
Speaker 2: it's going to score. Dak's playing really well. They have

1096
00:53:56,000 --> 00:53:57,560
Speaker 2: a lot of weapons, it's gonna score through the air,

1097
00:53:57,640 --> 00:54:00,000
Speaker 2: especially against the Giants and bad secondaries. But the offense

1098
00:54:00,160 --> 00:54:02,440
Speaker 2: line isn't the same. This isn't your offensive line from

1099
00:54:02,440 --> 00:54:04,439
Speaker 2: the last couple of years ago. Now all Collins is out,

1100
00:54:04,840 --> 00:54:07,480
Speaker 2: they have injuries. It's just it's not a great offensive

1101
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:09,759
Speaker 2: line anymore. They're not getting much help from the run game.

1102
00:54:09,880 --> 00:54:12,480
Speaker 2: Just Dak throwing the ball to their their threats and

1103
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:14,960
Speaker 2: they get they get down and then they'll they'll make

1104
00:54:15,000 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 2: crazy comebacks and their defense will give up points. I mean,

1105
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 2: can the Giants capitalize and Daniel Jud's not turn the

1106
00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 2: ball over, not get sacked and strip sacked. That's probably

1107
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:26,080
Speaker 2: what it will come down to. I don't have any

1108
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:30,480
Speaker 2: confidence in the Cowboys defense to lay nine years, so

1109
00:54:30,520 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 2: I don't blame you, but just my world numbers, I

1110
00:54:34,360 --> 00:54:36,560
Speaker 2: make it right around Dallas Sein, so it's a pass

1111
00:54:36,560 --> 00:54:38,720
Speaker 2: for me. But fading the Cowboys right now, that defense

1112
00:54:39,239 --> 00:54:42,800
Speaker 2: is a disaster. The offensive line is down. It's basically

1113
00:54:42,840 --> 00:54:45,319
Speaker 2: just Dak trying to outscore teams by throwing the ball.

1114
00:54:46,000 --> 00:54:46,839
Speaker 4: And I wrote about this.

1115
00:54:46,920 --> 00:54:48,560
Speaker 3: I have a piece up on Action network dot Com

1116
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:51,759
Speaker 3: right now about Dak and kind of you know what's

1117
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 3: not let let it not get lost just because the

1118
00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:58,000
Speaker 3: defense isn't bad that Dak. This is the first year

1119
00:54:58,040 --> 00:55:00,800
Speaker 3: he's really had an atrocious defense. The other four years

1120
00:55:00,800 --> 00:55:04,400
Speaker 3: their defense was ranked between fifth and thirteenth in points allowed,

1121
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 3: and you look at their point differential and he's right

1122
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:08,239
Speaker 3: around three and.

1123
00:55:08,160 --> 00:55:11,759
Speaker 4: A half four that whole time. So you know, Dak

1124
00:55:12,040 --> 00:55:13,040
Speaker 4: has been good.

1125
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 3: He has he's an above average quarterback, but he's struggled

1126
00:55:16,920 --> 00:55:19,799
Speaker 3: in qutch moments. He struggled to kind of get them

1127
00:55:19,840 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 3: wins that they otherwise wouldn't have gotten. He's really good

1128
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:25,600
Speaker 3: at bringing them back and making it close, but he

1129
00:55:25,600 --> 00:55:28,399
Speaker 3: struggles in the cutch. When you look at this team now,

1130
00:55:28,400 --> 00:55:30,959
Speaker 3: they don't have the defense. The Giants have the better

1131
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,720
Speaker 3: defense in this game. They're eleventh in DVA, the Cowboys

1132
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,320
Speaker 3: are twenty four. The Giants have been playing good run defense.

1133
00:55:37,360 --> 00:55:39,759
Speaker 3: They're number eleven in run defense. So it's not like

1134
00:55:39,880 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 3: Zeke is just gonna necessarily just run.

1135
00:55:43,000 --> 00:55:43,719
Speaker 2: All over them.

1136
00:55:43,800 --> 00:55:46,560
Speaker 3: So I just think it's gonna be another game where

1137
00:55:47,719 --> 00:55:50,080
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones he probably will turn the ball over. But

1138
00:55:50,280 --> 00:55:52,040
Speaker 3: the Giants have played four of the best defenses in

1139
00:55:52,080 --> 00:55:53,960
Speaker 3: the league. We've seen Daniel Jones put up four to

1140
00:55:54,000 --> 00:55:56,640
Speaker 3: five touchdown games. This is that type of game where

1141
00:55:56,640 --> 00:55:59,879
Speaker 3: I just don't think the Cowboys can pull away necessarily

1142
00:56:00,680 --> 00:56:02,920
Speaker 3: from the Giants, especially because the Giants can stop to

1143
00:56:03,000 --> 00:56:04,800
Speaker 3: run even if they get behind.

1144
00:56:04,880 --> 00:56:07,279
Speaker 4: So yeah, all right, So that does it.

1145
00:56:07,320 --> 00:56:11,320
Speaker 3: For the week five Sunday six pack to recap, Stuck

1146
00:56:11,400 --> 00:56:14,360
Speaker 3: is going with the Vikings plus seven at the Seahawks,

1147
00:56:14,560 --> 00:56:17,759
Speaker 3: the Houston Texans minus six and a half at home

1148
00:56:17,800 --> 00:56:21,880
Speaker 3: against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Washington Football team starting

1149
00:56:21,960 --> 00:56:25,560
Speaker 3: Kyle Allen plus seven and a half at home against

1150
00:56:25,560 --> 00:56:29,440
Speaker 3: the Los Angeles Rams. I am fading Dan Quinn going

1151
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:32,680
Speaker 3: with the Panthers on the road plus one and a half,

1152
00:56:33,080 --> 00:56:34,640
Speaker 3: the Browns home.

1153
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:37,239
Speaker 4: Dog plus two against the Colts, and the.

1154
00:56:37,239 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 3: Giants plus nine and a half on the road in

1155
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:47,319
Speaker 3: the Division against the Dallas Cowboys. Nowadays, time for our

1156
00:56:47,719 --> 00:56:49,520
Speaker 3: top over underplay.

1157
00:56:49,200 --> 00:56:49,720
Speaker 2: Of the week.

1158
00:56:50,000 --> 00:56:52,400
Speaker 3: So you started off the six pack, so I'll get

1159
00:56:52,440 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 3: it started with the total, and I'm going with the

1160
00:56:56,120 --> 00:57:00,000
Speaker 3: Panthers Falcons. This is a game where I already mentioned

1161
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:02,840
Speaker 3: for the Panthers, they get no pressure.

1162
00:57:02,880 --> 00:57:05,560
Speaker 4: Their defense is still a work in progress.

1163
00:57:05,560 --> 00:57:08,279
Speaker 3: They've been able to win games because their offense is

1164
00:57:08,280 --> 00:57:10,799
Speaker 3: playing I think a little bit more efficient than anyone thought,

1165
00:57:10,880 --> 00:57:14,040
Speaker 3: especially without Christian McCaffrey. But their defense is still not

1166
00:57:14,080 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 3: going to get pressure. Even if Julio Jones is out

1167
00:57:17,160 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 3: for the Falcons, they're going to be able to move

1168
00:57:18,800 --> 00:57:21,640
Speaker 3: the ball. You know, we saw was it Alamide's the

1169
00:57:21,720 --> 00:57:24,920
Speaker 3: keyst step up last week? They still have enough guys

1170
00:57:24,920 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 3: to catch the ball and move it downfield against a

1171
00:57:27,640 --> 00:57:30,120
Speaker 3: team that gets no pressure. And then on the other side,

1172
00:57:30,160 --> 00:57:32,720
Speaker 3: you know, we both hit on it and Lanta's defense

1173
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:36,880
Speaker 3: just decimated with injury and was never really very good

1174
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 3: outside of that fluky well was it six and two

1175
00:57:40,120 --> 00:57:42,440
Speaker 3: stretch to close the year last year where they just

1176
00:57:42,480 --> 00:57:45,080
Speaker 3: came into the perfect They just ran into like the

1177
00:57:45,120 --> 00:57:47,960
Speaker 3: perfect swate. This is the spot where I expect points

1178
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:51,760
Speaker 3: to be scored the you know, the Falcons are again

1179
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:53,960
Speaker 3: still a team that's going to get go up and

1180
00:57:53,960 --> 00:57:56,560
Speaker 3: down the field, and the Panthers have shown that they're

1181
00:57:57,160 --> 00:58:00,120
Speaker 3: able to do the same, you know, very efficient on

1182
00:58:00,200 --> 00:58:02,400
Speaker 3: offense in the past game. And Mike Davis, they're not

1183
00:58:02,440 --> 00:58:07,000
Speaker 3: really losing as much, at least statistically speaking. With Mike

1184
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:09,640
Speaker 3: Davis going from Christian McCaffrey, Davis still catching a ton

1185
00:58:09,680 --> 00:58:13,360
Speaker 3: of passes, you know, still running the football strong for them.

1186
00:58:13,400 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 3: So the over when it's fifty plus in the Dan

1187
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:19,040
Speaker 3: Quinn era for the Falcons. Despite this guy is supposed

1188
00:58:19,040 --> 00:58:22,280
Speaker 3: to be a defensive head coach over fifty plus twenty

1189
00:58:22,320 --> 00:58:26,160
Speaker 3: one and twelve sixty two percent in the Quinn era.

1190
00:58:26,880 --> 00:58:29,520
Speaker 3: I love these two offenses going back and forth in

1191
00:58:29,600 --> 00:58:31,919
Speaker 3: the Dome. Barely got the under to hit last week

1192
00:58:31,920 --> 00:58:34,480
Speaker 3: at fifty two and a half with that with Panthers

1193
00:58:34,520 --> 00:58:36,600
Speaker 3: Cardinals because the Panthers put up even more points than

1194
00:58:36,640 --> 00:58:39,920
Speaker 3: I expected. But uh, I expect both of these teams

1195
00:58:40,160 --> 00:58:42,560
Speaker 3: to have no trouble scoring yep.

1196
00:58:42,600 --> 00:58:43,880
Speaker 2: And you know Atlanta will go fast, so you just

1197
00:58:43,960 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 2: have to hope Atlanta doesn't fail in the red zone

1198
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:46,280
Speaker 2: over and over again.

1199
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:48,200
Speaker 4: I mean, I'm actually.

1200
00:58:47,840 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 2: I'll be fine with that.

1201
00:58:49,400 --> 00:58:50,800
Speaker 4: I'll be fine with that because I do I do

1202
00:58:50,880 --> 00:58:53,040
Speaker 4: have a lot of money on the Panthers, But I

1203
00:58:53,040 --> 00:58:54,120
Speaker 4: think the Panthers.

1204
00:58:53,720 --> 00:58:55,320
Speaker 2: True, you're kind of head You're kind of hedges in

1205
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:59,920
Speaker 2: a way there, all right. So for my favorite toe

1206
00:59:00,320 --> 00:59:04,080
Speaker 2: of the week, I am going with the Philadelphia Eagles

1207
00:59:04,120 --> 00:59:08,919
Speaker 2: and Pittsburgh Steelers under forty four at BEDMGM. Look I'm

1208
00:59:09,240 --> 00:59:12,960
Speaker 2: really gunshy of totals right now. I've adjusted most of

1209
00:59:13,000 --> 00:59:15,240
Speaker 2: them up about three points on average. It depends if

1210
00:59:15,400 --> 00:59:17,760
Speaker 2: it's not a flat adjustment. It depends on if it's

1211
00:59:17,800 --> 00:59:21,400
Speaker 2: forty or fifty five. Initially because of the pace being

1212
00:59:21,480 --> 00:59:24,080
Speaker 2: up because of more teams going for it on fourth down,

1213
00:59:24,080 --> 00:59:27,720
Speaker 2: fourth and ones at near midfield way up. That means

1214
00:59:27,760 --> 00:59:29,880
Speaker 2: you're either converting and keeping your driver alive or the

1215
00:59:29,880 --> 00:59:31,640
Speaker 2: other team is getting it in your midfield instead of

1216
00:59:31,640 --> 00:59:35,200
Speaker 2: punning it down towards the ten. Pace is up, Efficiencies up,

1217
00:59:35,240 --> 00:59:38,960
Speaker 2: communication is so much better without fans, and then obviously

1218
00:59:39,440 --> 00:59:42,480
Speaker 2: you have no penalties being called holding his way down.

1219
00:59:42,560 --> 00:59:46,000
Speaker 2: False starts are down, defensive pass interference is up, so

1220
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:48,760
Speaker 2: scoring is up like five points on average this year

1221
00:59:48,760 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 2: in totals, overs have been killing it, so I'm trying

1222
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:53,400
Speaker 2: to adjust. The one under I did play, probably the

1223
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:56,720
Speaker 2: only total I'll play this week is the Eagles Steelers.

1224
00:59:57,160 --> 01:00:00,080
Speaker 2: One of my favorite unders in the NFL, just historically

1225
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,160
Speaker 2: from a matchup perspective, is a game where I think

1226
01:00:02,400 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 2: both defensive lines will completely dominate. That's what I think

1227
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:08,160
Speaker 2: we'll get here. The Eagles offensive line is a mess

1228
01:00:08,160 --> 01:00:10,480
Speaker 2: because of injuries, and they're going up against argue the

1229
01:00:10,480 --> 01:00:13,560
Speaker 2: best defensive line in the NFL right now. The Steelers

1230
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 2: offensive line also, and I brought this up in our previews.

1231
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:18,560
Speaker 2: It's not gonna be These are two teams that have

1232
01:00:18,680 --> 01:00:20,760
Speaker 2: known for their elite offensive lines in the past couple

1233
01:00:20,760 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 2: of seasons. This isn't not your older brothers offensive lines

1234
01:00:23,400 --> 01:00:25,520
Speaker 2: on both teams, and it's one of the reasons the

1235
01:00:25,560 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 2: Steelers have struggled. I mean, the Steels are three and

1236
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 2: zero and sitting pretty, but they beat the Giants by ten,

1237
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:35,440
Speaker 2: the Broncos by five, and the Texans by seven. I mean,

1238
01:00:35,480 --> 01:00:38,240
Speaker 2: what do those teams have one combined win? So and

1239
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:40,680
Speaker 2: it hasn't looked pretty their offense. Big Ben is still

1240
01:00:40,720 --> 01:00:42,600
Speaker 2: trying to get back into the flow of things, and

1241
01:00:42,640 --> 01:00:44,600
Speaker 2: now he's had a long layoff. I don't know how

1242
01:00:44,640 --> 01:00:47,280
Speaker 2: that's gonna impact things. He said, it's not gonna be

1243
01:00:47,320 --> 01:00:50,240
Speaker 2: great for him in the offense. Who knows, but I

1244
01:00:50,320 --> 01:00:52,080
Speaker 2: tend to think that maybe it'll mess up some of

1245
01:00:52,120 --> 01:00:53,800
Speaker 2: the rhythm you're starting again. It's still not there on

1246
01:00:53,840 --> 01:00:56,520
Speaker 2: the offensive side. And what does Philly have. They have

1247
01:00:56,560 --> 01:00:59,120
Speaker 2: a great defensive line. Both of these teams. You look

1248
01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:01,960
Speaker 2: top five, top six and adjusted lineyards top five and

1249
01:01:02,360 --> 01:01:05,920
Speaker 2: adjusted ZACH rate. And the offensive lines are mediocre to

1250
01:01:05,960 --> 01:01:08,600
Speaker 2: bad their ranking, and we know the Eagles have no

1251
01:01:08,640 --> 01:01:11,120
Speaker 2: passing offense. It's the worst in the NFL. WENTZ has

1252
01:01:11,120 --> 01:01:13,560
Speaker 2: been awful. They lucked their way into a win last

1253
01:01:13,600 --> 01:01:16,200
Speaker 2: week against a banged up San Fran team, although that

1254
01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:17,720
Speaker 2: was a great call on buying low. I wish I

1255
01:01:17,720 --> 01:01:20,280
Speaker 2: bet them plus seven. Look, you still saw nothing from

1256
01:01:20,320 --> 01:01:24,000
Speaker 2: the offense, and maybe Deshaun Jackson comes back, maybe he doesn't.

1257
01:01:24,320 --> 01:01:26,840
Speaker 2: Steelers d is still solid. I don't see the Eagles

1258
01:01:26,840 --> 01:01:29,600
Speaker 2: offense doing much and I think this is a game

1259
01:01:29,640 --> 01:01:33,480
Speaker 2: where both defensive lines end up dominating from start to finish.

1260
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:38,280
Speaker 2: Big Ben and the Pittsburgh receivers are a little bit better,

1261
01:01:38,480 --> 01:01:41,000
Speaker 2: if not a lot better. That'll end up being the difference,

1262
01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:43,520
Speaker 2: which is why the Steelers will win this game in

1263
01:01:43,560 --> 01:01:46,040
Speaker 2: my opinion. But I don't think that this gets over

1264
01:01:46,120 --> 01:01:48,680
Speaker 2: forty four. Maybe it will because unders go to die

1265
01:01:48,720 --> 01:01:50,640
Speaker 2: in the NFL this year, But that's my favorite total week.

1266
01:01:51,440 --> 01:01:54,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is one that I'm having a I'm having

1267
01:01:54,400 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 3: a tough time kind of pegging it. I think I

1268
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:59,560
Speaker 3: have the total a little bit higher than that for

1269
01:01:59,600 --> 01:02:02,560
Speaker 3: some range reason, and I don't know exactly why this is.

1270
01:02:03,160 --> 01:02:06,000
Speaker 3: Eagles games just tend to score high when they go

1271
01:02:06,040 --> 01:02:10,959
Speaker 3: on the road over when a total is forty seven

1272
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:15,000
Speaker 3: or below. For the Eagles is twenty and four in

1273
01:02:15,920 --> 01:02:18,200
Speaker 3: Carson Wentz's starts, these games go.

1274
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:20,560
Speaker 2: High those How many of those games was Carson Wentz

1275
01:02:20,560 --> 01:02:21,919
Speaker 2: good for? He's no longer good.

1276
01:02:22,240 --> 01:02:25,080
Speaker 3: I really have no kind of explanation for it. I

1277
01:02:25,120 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 3: have to kind of look into it deeper at but

1278
01:02:27,320 --> 01:02:29,760
Speaker 3: just something to kind of point out. And I think

1279
01:02:29,840 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 3: that is like if you're looking for an under, this

1280
01:02:32,600 --> 01:02:35,200
Speaker 3: one and the Bears to me would be the two

1281
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:39,000
Speaker 3: ones you look for. So if those games go over, well,

1282
01:02:39,040 --> 01:02:43,040
Speaker 3: no totals are officially broken in twenty twenty and just

1283
01:02:43,080 --> 01:02:50,200
Speaker 3: bang the over on everything. To recap, I got the

1284
01:02:50,240 --> 01:02:53,000
Speaker 3: Panthers Falcons over fifty four and a half, stuck has

1285
01:02:53,160 --> 01:02:57,760
Speaker 3: the Eagles Steelers under forty four and a half.

1286
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:01,320
Speaker 4: Now it's time for our weekly teaser segment.

1287
01:03:01,880 --> 01:03:05,240
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers.

1288
01:03:05,640 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 3: For anyone not familiar, a teaser is when you combine

1289
01:03:09,280 --> 01:03:12,160
Speaker 3: two or more bets and you get an additional six

1290
01:03:12,200 --> 01:03:14,280
Speaker 3: points towards the spread of each team.

1291
01:03:14,360 --> 01:03:15,840
Speaker 4: So it's kind of like a par way.

1292
01:03:15,920 --> 01:03:18,040
Speaker 3: You have to hit both or if you do more

1293
01:03:18,080 --> 01:03:20,080
Speaker 3: than two, you have to hit all of them. But

1294
01:03:20,600 --> 01:03:23,040
Speaker 3: you are getting an additional six points toward the spread

1295
01:03:23,080 --> 01:03:26,280
Speaker 3: for each bet. So if you're teasing an eight point favorite,

1296
01:03:26,840 --> 01:03:29,320
Speaker 3: they become a two point favorite, and an eight point

1297
01:03:29,400 --> 01:03:34,560
Speaker 3: underdog becomes then a fourteen point underdog. Stuck, where are

1298
01:03:34,560 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 3: you going with your teaser? Play two team teaser for

1299
01:03:37,800 --> 01:03:38,800
Speaker 3: this week? Yeah?

1300
01:03:38,840 --> 01:03:40,760
Speaker 2: I mean ideally, if you have two teams, then you're

1301
01:03:40,800 --> 01:03:43,600
Speaker 2: crossing both the three and seven. With both teams, you

1302
01:03:43,840 --> 01:03:45,680
Speaker 2: have an edge over the books as long as you're

1303
01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:48,520
Speaker 2: paying minus one twenty or below for the teaser. And

1304
01:03:48,800 --> 01:03:51,440
Speaker 2: this year, those teasing those teams through the three and

1305
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:53,680
Speaker 2: seven or fourteen and one, and you have to be

1306
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:56,320
Speaker 2: above like seventy two point four percent to break even

1307
01:03:56,360 --> 01:03:58,200
Speaker 2: in the stort of they're like seventy five seventy five

1308
01:03:58,240 --> 01:04:00,640
Speaker 2: and a half percent this week. If you looking for

1309
01:04:00,800 --> 01:04:03,360
Speaker 2: two teams to tease through the three and seven, I

1310
01:04:03,360 --> 01:04:05,400
Speaker 2: would look right now at BETMG and the Panthers are

1311
01:04:05,400 --> 01:04:07,480
Speaker 2: plus one and a half. You can tease them up

1312
01:04:07,520 --> 01:04:09,200
Speaker 2: to seven and a half, and the Browns are plus

1313
01:04:09,200 --> 01:04:10,520
Speaker 2: one and a half. You can tease them up to

1314
01:04:10,520 --> 01:04:12,480
Speaker 2: seven and a half. So that's why we'll go with

1315
01:04:12,560 --> 01:04:16,520
Speaker 2: the Panthers and the brown said. Something to keep in

1316
01:04:16,520 --> 01:04:19,320
Speaker 2: mind now that I'm starting to think about is I'm

1317
01:04:19,640 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 2: you might see key numbers start to shift in the NFL,

1318
01:04:22,440 --> 01:04:26,600
Speaker 2: and I might start valuing teasing over eight instead of

1319
01:04:26,640 --> 01:04:29,240
Speaker 2: over seven, because in the past in the NFL, if

1320
01:04:29,280 --> 01:04:32,800
Speaker 2: you're down fourteen late, it's pretty easy a lot to

1321
01:04:32,840 --> 01:04:35,880
Speaker 2: get a meaningless garbage touchdown. In the NFL, team kicks

1322
01:04:35,880 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 2: the extra point. You lose by seven, you cover your

1323
01:04:38,120 --> 01:04:39,880
Speaker 2: seven and a half, your plus seven and half in

1324
01:04:39,880 --> 01:04:43,400
Speaker 2: a teaser. Well, now teams are getting smarter. They're making

1325
01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:46,840
Speaker 2: the more intelligent, analytical based decision of going for two

1326
01:04:47,240 --> 01:04:50,280
Speaker 2: down fourteen. So now instead of those games ending seven,

1327
01:04:50,520 --> 01:04:53,720
Speaker 2: more often than not, they're gonna end eight and six

1328
01:04:54,640 --> 01:04:56,880
Speaker 2: the other eight or six. So as more teams start

1329
01:04:56,880 --> 01:04:58,400
Speaker 2: to do this, we saw it happen twice in like

1330
01:04:58,560 --> 01:05:02,800
Speaker 2: ten minutes last week, that getting over eight for teasers

1331
01:05:02,840 --> 01:05:05,480
Speaker 2: and just key numbers in general, it's gonna shift just

1332
01:05:05,520 --> 01:05:07,040
Speaker 2: a little bit. Something to keep in mind, But yeah,

1333
01:05:07,560 --> 01:05:11,320
Speaker 2: getting the Browns and the Panthers over seven each, I

1334
01:05:11,320 --> 01:05:13,760
Speaker 2: think is the way that I would recommend this week.

1335
01:05:14,280 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think both those teams have a great chance

1336
01:05:16,440 --> 01:05:19,440
Speaker 3: to win their games, not only cover I'm going with

1337
01:05:19,440 --> 01:05:23,800
Speaker 3: the Panthers as well, teasing them up to plus seven

1338
01:05:23,840 --> 01:05:26,880
Speaker 3: and a half and then teasing the Steelers down from

1339
01:05:27,440 --> 01:05:29,240
Speaker 3: seven to one against the Eagles.

1340
01:05:29,480 --> 01:05:31,160
Speaker 4: I do agree with what you said.

1341
01:05:31,200 --> 01:05:34,320
Speaker 3: I think the Steelers defense will ultimately be able to

1342
01:05:34,320 --> 01:05:37,680
Speaker 3: control this game and the Eagles offense, you know, even

1343
01:05:37,800 --> 01:05:44,040
Speaker 3: with potentially Deshaun Jackson back, maybe even Al Sean, it's

1344
01:05:44,160 --> 01:05:47,080
Speaker 3: just been a it's been a grind, it's been a slog.

1345
01:05:47,160 --> 01:05:49,400
Speaker 3: It's it's been tough sledding, and this is not the

1346
01:05:49,440 --> 01:05:53,160
Speaker 3: defense to get right against. And you're on the road

1347
01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 3: at granted you're in interstate, but you're on the road

1348
01:05:55,400 --> 01:05:58,440
Speaker 3: against a really, really tough defense and your quarterback's been

1349
01:05:58,440 --> 01:06:01,440
Speaker 3: turning the ball over. So I like the Steelers to

1350
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:05,600
Speaker 3: win this game. If you look at once you start

1351
01:06:05,600 --> 01:06:09,439
Speaker 3: getting into October and on, and we kind of see

1352
01:06:09,480 --> 01:06:12,240
Speaker 3: the market reacting to these different teams. And the Steelers

1353
01:06:12,280 --> 01:06:16,640
Speaker 3: have only played three games, but historically, when you have

1354
01:06:16,680 --> 01:06:19,920
Speaker 3: a favorite with a covering but not by a ton,

1355
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:23,440
Speaker 3: but a favorite with a and against the spread margin

1356
01:06:23,640 --> 01:06:26,320
Speaker 3: that averages between one and a half and four and

1357
01:06:26,320 --> 01:06:29,600
Speaker 3: a half, and then you have an underdog that's averaging

1358
01:06:30,720 --> 01:06:34,360
Speaker 3: minus three or worse versus the spread. The favorites in

1359
01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:38,200
Speaker 3: those spots have been way undervalued one thirty, two sixty

1360
01:06:38,280 --> 01:06:42,520
Speaker 3: nine and seven sixty six percent against the spread. It's

1361
01:06:42,560 --> 01:06:45,640
Speaker 3: it's it's a spot where the books just aren't really

1362
01:06:45,680 --> 01:06:49,200
Speaker 3: making too big of an adjustment. They're given the Steelers

1363
01:06:49,200 --> 01:06:53,360
Speaker 3: the touchdown, I actually make it seven and a half.

1364
01:06:53,680 --> 01:06:55,480
Speaker 4: So I think the.

1365
01:06:55,400 --> 01:06:58,040
Speaker 3: Steelers may end up covering this game if if Philadelphia

1366
01:06:58,080 --> 01:07:00,640
Speaker 3: doesn't get lucky with like a pig six like they

1367
01:07:00,640 --> 01:07:02,760
Speaker 3: did last week, and they go for two on the

1368
01:07:02,800 --> 01:07:06,720
Speaker 3: opening touchdown of the game and they get that. If

1369
01:07:06,800 --> 01:07:09,439
Speaker 3: Philadelphia doesn't get that, I think they struggle to even

1370
01:07:09,480 --> 01:07:13,360
Speaker 3: cover the regular numbers. But I like Pittsburgh to win

1371
01:07:13,400 --> 01:07:17,240
Speaker 3: the game, so teasing him down to one. So to recap,

1372
01:07:17,360 --> 01:07:21,400
Speaker 3: Stuck has for his two team teaser the Browns and

1373
01:07:21,600 --> 01:07:24,640
Speaker 3: the Panthers plus eight plus seven and a half, and

1374
01:07:24,680 --> 01:07:26,919
Speaker 3: then I have the Panthers plus seven and a half

1375
01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:28,240
Speaker 3: the Steelers minus one.

1376
01:07:28,640 --> 01:07:32,200
Speaker 4: That's our teaser. Now let's get into our underdog money

1377
01:07:32,200 --> 01:07:32,960
Speaker 4: line parlay.

1378
01:07:35,960 --> 01:07:40,880
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1379
01:07:41,040 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1380
01:07:43,720 --> 01:07:47,520
Speaker 3: In this segment, we each pick an underdog on the

1381
01:07:47,600 --> 01:07:50,600
Speaker 3: money line and we turn it into a little parway

1382
01:07:50,680 --> 01:07:52,880
Speaker 3: just for fun. All Right, stuck, where are you going

1383
01:07:52,920 --> 01:07:55,480
Speaker 3: with your money line dog for this week?

1384
01:07:56,040 --> 01:07:59,080
Speaker 2: All right? For this week? I think I rambled enough

1385
01:07:59,080 --> 01:08:01,000
Speaker 2: about it. I'll have a right up about it as well,

1386
01:08:01,040 --> 01:08:04,400
Speaker 2: and my weekly picks piece end. For this Sunday Night

1387
01:08:04,480 --> 01:08:09,680
Speaker 2: football preview, I'm going with Kirk Cousins and the Minnesota

1388
01:08:09,760 --> 01:08:12,880
Speaker 2: Vikings to pull off the upset over primetime Russell Wilson.

1389
01:08:13,240 --> 01:08:15,520
Speaker 2: This line's too high. It's plus than the money line

1390
01:08:15,600 --> 01:08:19,040
Speaker 2: is plus two forty five at bet MGM. And look,

1391
01:08:19,040 --> 01:08:22,080
Speaker 2: Seattle's been so lucky so far this year. The regression

1392
01:08:22,120 --> 01:08:25,479
Speaker 2: is coming, the turnovers are coming. They won't be getting

1393
01:08:25,479 --> 01:08:29,400
Speaker 2: turnovers Minnesota's do. It's just a perfect storm for Minnesota

1394
01:08:29,520 --> 01:08:32,200
Speaker 2: to pull out this huge win to potentially turn around

1395
01:08:32,200 --> 01:08:34,000
Speaker 2: their season. I like some of the things I'm seeing

1396
01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:37,680
Speaker 2: from play calling perspective, from Jefferson, some of the improvements

1397
01:08:37,680 --> 01:08:41,160
Speaker 2: on defense. They can win this game, and I'll take

1398
01:08:41,160 --> 01:08:42,800
Speaker 2: the value with the Vikings on Sunday Night.

1399
01:08:43,240 --> 01:08:45,439
Speaker 4: Now, I'm gonna keep fading, dan Quinn.

1400
01:08:45,600 --> 01:08:49,080
Speaker 3: I like the Panthers at one and a half, and

1401
01:08:49,160 --> 01:08:50,880
Speaker 3: so that means that I obviously think they can win

1402
01:08:50,880 --> 01:08:52,599
Speaker 3: the game. So I'm going with them as a short

1403
01:08:53,200 --> 01:08:56,000
Speaker 3: money line dog here plus one ten. If you're probably

1404
01:08:56,120 --> 01:08:58,840
Speaker 3: those two bets together, you would win six hundred and

1405
01:08:58,840 --> 01:09:01,519
Speaker 3: twenty five dollars on a one hundred dollars bet for

1406
01:09:01,560 --> 01:09:02,639
Speaker 3: a total payout of.

1407
01:09:02,600 --> 01:09:04,080
Speaker 4: Seven twenty five.

1408
01:09:04,320 --> 01:09:07,519
Speaker 3: So hopefully those two money line dogs hit Panthers plus

1409
01:09:07,560 --> 01:09:12,680
Speaker 3: one ten, Vikings plus two forty five. Now it's time

1410
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:14,800
Speaker 3: for the best of the rest, which are the games

1411
01:09:14,840 --> 01:09:17,559
Speaker 3: that we did not discuss in any other segment stuck.

1412
01:09:17,600 --> 01:09:20,400
Speaker 3: First up, we have the Vegas Raiders going to KC

1413
01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:23,719
Speaker 3: to face the Chiefs. Chiefs thirteen point favorites to total

1414
01:09:23,920 --> 01:09:27,120
Speaker 3: fifty six and a half. Patrick Mahomes twenty twelve and

1415
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:30,280
Speaker 3: one sixty three percent as a favorite. The Unders in

1416
01:09:30,320 --> 01:09:33,360
Speaker 3: the Andy Reid Era at Arrowhead are hitting at sixty

1417
01:09:33,400 --> 01:09:34,120
Speaker 3: percent as well.

1418
01:09:34,560 --> 01:09:35,320
Speaker 4: Thoughts on this game.

1419
01:09:35,840 --> 01:09:38,640
Speaker 2: Historically it is a short week for the Chiefs, but

1420
01:09:38,960 --> 01:09:42,320
Speaker 2: this Raiders team is just so banged up. Historically, you know,

1421
01:09:42,560 --> 01:09:44,800
Speaker 2: over the first eight weeks of the season, it's been

1422
01:09:44,920 --> 01:09:48,559
Speaker 2: very profitable to take a double digit divisional dog at

1423
01:09:48,560 --> 01:09:51,320
Speaker 2: thirty seven, eighteen and two since two thousand and three.

1424
01:09:51,680 --> 01:09:54,439
Speaker 2: So that applies to the Bengals this week and and

1425
01:09:54,880 --> 01:09:57,519
Speaker 2: the Raiders. But just with all these injuries on the

1426
01:09:57,600 --> 01:09:59,920
Speaker 2: Raiders offensive, you know, their offensive line at wide receiver,

1427
01:10:00,120 --> 01:10:01,920
Speaker 2: they're banged up. On the DEFENSI side of the defense

1428
01:10:02,040 --> 01:10:05,479
Speaker 2: is just terrible. They don't get pressure, they have bad coverage. Guys,

1429
01:10:05,520 --> 01:10:08,719
Speaker 2: how do you stop the Chiefs? I mean, the last

1430
01:10:08,720 --> 01:10:10,559
Speaker 2: three meetings the Chiefs about scored them one hundred and

1431
01:10:10,560 --> 01:10:13,479
Speaker 2: three to twenty two. I know, cars playing really well.

1432
01:10:13,880 --> 01:10:16,599
Speaker 2: I think this line's a tad infilated. So I'm definitely

1433
01:10:16,640 --> 01:10:19,160
Speaker 2: not betting the Chiefs, but I'm not betting the Raiders

1434
01:10:19,160 --> 01:10:21,680
Speaker 2: here pure stay away from me.

1435
01:10:22,040 --> 01:10:23,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, I'm tempted to defect the Chiefs.

1436
01:10:23,920 --> 01:10:25,880
Speaker 3: I think it's something like if you go back even further,

1437
01:10:26,320 --> 01:10:29,960
Speaker 3: like one seventy five to like forty or something something

1438
01:10:30,040 --> 01:10:33,720
Speaker 3: ridiculous in the score. You know, the scoring margin the

1439
01:10:33,760 --> 01:10:39,639
Speaker 3: Chiefs have had over the Raiders. Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

1440
01:10:39,960 --> 01:10:43,120
Speaker 3: Ravens twelve and a half point favorites the total fifty.

1441
01:10:43,120 --> 01:10:45,639
Speaker 3: Though this line was taken off the board with Lamar

1442
01:10:45,760 --> 01:10:49,120
Speaker 3: Jackson missing practice as of Wednesday, so that's something will

1443
01:10:49,120 --> 01:10:52,120
Speaker 3: have to monitor. But Baltimore as a divisional favorite under

1444
01:10:52,120 --> 01:10:54,679
Speaker 3: Harba just eleven twenty and one against the spread thirty

1445
01:10:54,680 --> 01:10:55,320
Speaker 3: five percent.

1446
01:10:55,640 --> 01:10:58,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I mentioned the divisional dog trend with

1447
01:10:58,720 --> 01:11:03,000
Speaker 2: Cinci here. This line is spot on to me, but

1448
01:11:03,080 --> 01:11:05,120
Speaker 2: there are a lot of injuries worth monitoring on the

1449
01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:08,400
Speaker 2: Baltimore side and their secondary. It looks like Ronnie Stanley,

1450
01:11:08,400 --> 01:11:10,559
Speaker 2: they're all pro tackle will go Lamar Jackson. They say

1451
01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:14,000
Speaker 2: it's cautionary, but know RG three has taking snaps today,

1452
01:11:14,040 --> 01:11:17,760
Speaker 2: So I don't know. The biggest problem with Cincy is

1453
01:11:17,880 --> 01:11:19,840
Speaker 2: are they gonna be able to stop Baltimore's rush attack.

1454
01:11:19,880 --> 01:11:22,559
Speaker 2: I mean last year, I remember they got shredded in

1455
01:11:22,600 --> 01:11:24,880
Speaker 2: one game to give up I think fifty points. Both

1456
01:11:24,920 --> 01:11:28,160
Speaker 2: these teams are very slow and snails, but I just

1457
01:11:28,200 --> 01:11:30,040
Speaker 2: don't know. So I actually think that there might be

1458
01:11:30,400 --> 01:11:32,519
Speaker 2: a tad bit of value in the under. But look,

1459
01:11:32,520 --> 01:11:34,960
Speaker 2: I don't want to get in front of unders here.

1460
01:11:35,560 --> 01:11:38,880
Speaker 2: The Ravens blitz should really bother Burrow and that that's

1461
01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:42,120
Speaker 2: since the offensive line, But the couple come down to

1462
01:11:42,240 --> 01:11:46,439
Speaker 2: how healthy their secondary is. Rookie quarterbacks against Baltimore two

1463
01:11:46,479 --> 01:11:49,600
Speaker 2: and seventeen in the history of the franchise in Baltimore,

1464
01:11:49,880 --> 01:11:52,160
Speaker 2: So I know Burrow has played well, but this is

1465
01:11:52,400 --> 01:11:55,920
Speaker 2: a really tough spot for him. But the line looks

1466
01:11:55,920 --> 01:11:58,320
Speaker 2: spot on to me. But if the Ravens are banged

1467
01:11:58,400 --> 01:12:02,519
Speaker 2: up and this game goes pretty slow, when these two

1468
01:12:02,520 --> 01:12:05,479
Speaker 2: teams don't like to go fast and neutral situations, I

1469
01:12:05,479 --> 01:12:08,680
Speaker 2: could see the Bengals either covering and or getting in

1470
01:12:08,720 --> 01:12:11,160
Speaker 2: the back door, as Barrows showed that he can do

1471
01:12:11,479 --> 01:12:12,519
Speaker 2: pure stay away from me.

1472
01:12:12,880 --> 01:12:16,440
Speaker 3: I actually like the Bengals if that number gets reposted.

1473
01:12:16,479 --> 01:12:19,400
Speaker 3: I think these are classic spots where the Ravens have

1474
01:12:19,439 --> 01:12:22,880
Speaker 3: been a little bit overvalued. The Bengals playing decently on

1475
01:12:22,960 --> 01:12:26,680
Speaker 3: pass defense number ten in DVA, so when you take

1476
01:12:26,720 --> 01:12:30,120
Speaker 3: that away from Jackson, that offense is not quite the same.

1477
01:12:30,160 --> 01:12:32,800
Speaker 3: They'll still put up their rushing numbers, but not sure.

1478
01:12:32,840 --> 01:12:38,759
Speaker 3: It's like a blowout situation for Baltimore. The Jets hosting

1479
01:12:38,840 --> 01:12:41,400
Speaker 3: the Arizona Cardinals Jets seven and a half point favorites

1480
01:12:41,439 --> 01:12:42,879
Speaker 3: to total forty seven and a half.

1481
01:12:43,120 --> 01:12:45,080
Speaker 4: Again, we have that trend.

1482
01:12:44,920 --> 01:12:47,840
Speaker 3: With the teams going on the road to face a

1483
01:12:47,880 --> 01:12:50,519
Speaker 3: winless home team in Week five are sixteen to four

1484
01:12:50,520 --> 01:12:53,840
Speaker 3: and one against the spread. Since three any thoughts on

1485
01:12:53,920 --> 01:12:55,560
Speaker 3: this game cards at Jets.

1486
01:12:55,760 --> 01:12:59,360
Speaker 2: Well, with the announcement that Joe Flacco will start over

1487
01:12:59,400 --> 01:13:02,559
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold, the line has moved from Jets plus seven

1488
01:13:02,640 --> 01:13:05,879
Speaker 2: to Jets plus seven. For all your Sam Donald truthers

1489
01:13:05,920 --> 01:13:08,400
Speaker 2: out there, I actually think that said Donald was like

1490
01:13:08,840 --> 01:13:12,400
Speaker 2: a hair for the spread, but worth a little bit

1491
01:13:12,439 --> 01:13:15,559
Speaker 2: more to the spread then Flacco like a little less

1492
01:13:15,600 --> 01:13:17,200
Speaker 2: than a point, so I actually made it like six

1493
01:13:17,320 --> 01:13:20,120
Speaker 2: two six'. Three and then With flacco, ANNOUNCEMENT i make

1494
01:13:20,160 --> 01:13:22,240
Speaker 2: this right on, seven which is where it. Is but,

1495
01:13:22,360 --> 01:13:25,679
Speaker 2: again don't bet The New York. Jets people don't Bet Adam,

1496
01:13:25,720 --> 01:13:28,519
Speaker 2: gase BUT i can't make the case for betting The.

1497
01:13:28,560 --> 01:13:31,800
Speaker 2: Cardinals this line looks dead on to, me AND i

1498
01:13:31,800 --> 01:13:34,360
Speaker 2: am the lowest person in the world on The. Jets

1499
01:13:34,400 --> 01:13:37,160
Speaker 2: made the MARKET i think is finally properly pricing. THEM

1500
01:13:37,160 --> 01:13:39,240
Speaker 2: i still can't still not enough value to even think

1501
01:13:39,280 --> 01:13:41,200
Speaker 2: about back in The jets, here but maybe they're getting

1502
01:13:41,200 --> 01:13:42,599
Speaker 2: a little, healthier so maybe that'll.

1503
01:13:42,600 --> 01:13:44,720
Speaker 4: HELP i would still Go cardinals IF i had.

1504
01:13:44,760 --> 01:13:48,920
Speaker 3: TO i think you have this situation where it seems

1505
01:13:48,960 --> 01:13:51,479
Speaker 3: like there could be value on these on these WIN withss,

1506
01:13:51,479 --> 01:13:53,800
Speaker 3: teams there's probably. Not and The cardinals in need of

1507
01:13:53,840 --> 01:13:57,280
Speaker 3: a bounce back after a rough outing in a game

1508
01:13:57,280 --> 01:13:59,360
Speaker 3: that they probably heading into the, YEAR i thought they

1509
01:13:59,360 --> 01:14:02,880
Speaker 3: were going to, Win SO i like The cardinals at at,

1510
01:14:02,920 --> 01:14:05,920
Speaker 3: seven but not a ton of value on either side.

1511
01:14:05,960 --> 01:14:09,639
Speaker 3: Here dolphins going To San, francisco this.

1512
01:14:09,600 --> 01:14:10,640
Speaker 2: One the totals off the.

1513
01:14:10,640 --> 01:14:13,240
Speaker 3: Board it looks Like Jimmy garoppolo is going to, start

1514
01:14:13,640 --> 01:14:16,400
Speaker 3: hasn't been confirmed as we record, this but he has

1515
01:14:16,400 --> 01:14:19,840
Speaker 3: a return of. Practice Ryan fitzpatrick will get another start

1516
01:14:19,880 --> 01:14:20,080
Speaker 3: for The.

1517
01:14:20,120 --> 01:14:22,799
Speaker 4: Dolphins fits magic.

1518
01:14:23,520 --> 01:14:28,920
Speaker 3: Magicic but we're officially On Tua Tugo valloa, watch so

1519
01:14:29,840 --> 01:14:33,280
Speaker 3: not too much really on this game with no true line,

1520
01:14:33,280 --> 01:14:37,000
Speaker 3: out but we are Seeing niners by nine as we

1521
01:14:37,080 --> 01:14:38,400
Speaker 3: record this at BETAM.

1522
01:14:38,439 --> 01:14:40,920
Speaker 2: Gm, yeah you gotta keep your eye on the injury

1523
01:14:40,960 --> 01:14:43,600
Speaker 2: report for The. Niners obviously they have a lot of

1524
01:14:43,600 --> 01:14:45,360
Speaker 2: guys that have been on there all, year and especially

1525
01:14:45,360 --> 01:14:47,920
Speaker 2: a quarterback who's going to. START a quarterback we've Seen

1526
01:14:48,000 --> 01:14:50,640
Speaker 2: Nick mallins's last week is not the. Answer SO i

1527
01:14:50,680 --> 01:14:55,200
Speaker 2: have to Give Jimmy gius. Props he's a couple points for,

1528
01:14:55,280 --> 01:14:58,240
Speaker 2: sure better Than Nick. Mallins so, yeah just monitoring the

1529
01:14:58,280 --> 01:15:01,160
Speaker 2: San franz injury situation quarterback the rest of the. Week

1530
01:15:01,360 --> 01:15:03,519
Speaker 2: BUT i make it nine Assuming Jimmy g's. Playing so

1531
01:15:03,600 --> 01:15:05,599
Speaker 2: if it is, nine No. Robalt if you can get

1532
01:15:05,640 --> 01:15:07,160
Speaker 2: eight and a, HALF i think San franz a good

1533
01:15:07,200 --> 01:15:10,880
Speaker 2: teaser piece down under. Three If JIMMY g, plays.

1534
01:15:10,640 --> 01:15:13,679
Speaker 3: Then we have The broncos at The. Patriots no line

1535
01:15:13,880 --> 01:15:17,920
Speaker 3: for that. Game Cam Newton Stefan gilmour both on THE

1536
01:15:17,960 --> 01:15:21,240
Speaker 3: covid nineteen. List if this game does get, played we

1537
01:15:21,280 --> 01:15:23,960
Speaker 3: have all The belichick, trends you, know the bounce back

1538
01:15:24,000 --> 01:15:26,360
Speaker 3: off the loss seventy three percent against the spread off

1539
01:15:26,360 --> 01:15:29,280
Speaker 3: a double digit loss eighty two, percent as a whole

1540
01:15:29,640 --> 01:15:33,519
Speaker 3: favorite seventeen or wess sixty two. Percent but we don't

1541
01:15:33,520 --> 01:15:36,320
Speaker 3: know what's going on with this one. Yet probably we'll

1542
01:15:36,320 --> 01:15:40,320
Speaker 3: See Jared stidham Against Brett rippin if this one.

1543
01:15:40,400 --> 01:15:41,559
Speaker 4: Goes but, no why on that.

1544
01:15:41,600 --> 01:15:44,000
Speaker 2: One, look it's it's a really tough game to. Cap

1545
01:15:44,320 --> 01:15:46,320
Speaker 2: you don't know who's playing and who's a. Quarterback we've

1546
01:15:46,320 --> 01:15:49,400
Speaker 2: seen the difference Between Cam newton and their backups might

1547
01:15:49,439 --> 01:15:51,719
Speaker 2: be you, know the market thought it was like five

1548
01:15:52,200 --> 01:15:55,280
Speaker 2: six points might be closer to. SEVEN i Mean sidham was,

1549
01:15:55,320 --> 01:15:59,479
Speaker 2: Awful hoyer is. Done so, yeah there's a big difference

1550
01:15:59,479 --> 01:16:02,280
Speaker 2: Between Cam newton playing or. Not If kenon does play Against,

1551
01:16:02,439 --> 01:16:04,960
Speaker 2: RIPPING i make this line around eight or, nine which

1552
01:16:05,000 --> 01:16:07,320
Speaker 2: is what we were seeing early in the, WEEK i.

1553
01:16:07,360 --> 01:16:09,800
Speaker 2: Think but, look The patriots on a short. Week they're

1554
01:16:09,800 --> 01:16:12,280
Speaker 2: missing practices now because of. It so maybe the prep

1555
01:16:12,320 --> 01:16:14,920
Speaker 2: For belichick isn't as great as it normally, is especially

1556
01:16:15,000 --> 01:16:17,200
Speaker 2: when you get Bitter bill off a. Loss so, yeah

1557
01:16:17,240 --> 01:16:20,320
Speaker 2: it's a lot of uncertainty here and. Monitoring keep an

1558
01:16:20,320 --> 01:16:22,000
Speaker 2: eye on the app to see IF i play.

1559
01:16:22,040 --> 01:16:25,760
Speaker 3: Anything buffalo At tennessee another game that we don't know

1560
01:16:25,800 --> 01:16:27,880
Speaker 3: exactly what's going to happen with line off the. Board

1561
01:16:28,439 --> 01:16:31,360
Speaker 3: tennessee wide Receiver Corey davis was added to THE covid,

1562
01:16:31,439 --> 01:16:36,000
Speaker 3: nineteen with joining wide Receivers Adam humphries And Cameron, batson

1563
01:16:36,320 --> 01:16:42,280
Speaker 3: Fullback Carie, Blazing, game offensive Tackle Isaiah, wilson d Lineman Jeffery,

1564
01:16:42,360 --> 01:16:48,000
Speaker 3: simmons Linebacker Kamalawi, correa Corner Christian, Fulton Daykwon jones as,

1565
01:16:48,000 --> 01:16:48,599
Speaker 3: well and.

1566
01:16:48,560 --> 01:16:50,280
Speaker 4: Even their long Snapper Bo.

1567
01:16:50,479 --> 01:16:55,439
Speaker 3: Brinkley on THE covid nineteen With so this is just

1568
01:16:55,479 --> 01:16:58,679
Speaker 3: a tough, spot will be a tough spot For tennessee

1569
01:16:59,040 --> 01:17:01,280
Speaker 3: if this one gets. Played Josh allen ten three and

1570
01:17:01,320 --> 01:17:02,960
Speaker 3: two against the spread on the.

1571
01:17:03,240 --> 01:17:06,200
Speaker 2: Road, yeah no idea on, This SO i don't know

1572
01:17:06,240 --> 01:17:08,479
Speaker 2: who's playing. FOR i doubt this game even gets Played.

1573
01:17:08,520 --> 01:17:11,479
Speaker 2: Tennessee there's rumblings In, tennessee but the forfeit this game

1574
01:17:11,479 --> 01:17:14,479
Speaker 2: because they BROKE covid, protocols which would be really interesting

1575
01:17:14,520 --> 01:17:17,439
Speaker 2: for wind, totals be really interesting in THE afc where

1576
01:17:17,479 --> 01:17:20,439
Speaker 2: the one seed is so coveted with The chiefs and

1577
01:17:20,479 --> 01:17:22,040
Speaker 2: you know The bills arendefeated and you just get a

1578
01:17:22,080 --> 01:17:24,960
Speaker 2: free road win Over. Tennessee a lot of implications. There but,

1579
01:17:25,040 --> 01:17:27,400
Speaker 2: yeah some of These tennessee possibly the guys that are

1580
01:17:27,439 --> 01:17:31,120
Speaker 2: possibly out and they're not, practicing are major doubt at this,

1581
01:17:31,200 --> 01:17:33,080
Speaker 2: game AND i don't think it's gonna get played.

1582
01:17:33,080 --> 01:17:36,960
Speaker 3: Past all, right let's get into Our survivor Pool pick

1583
01:17:37,000 --> 01:17:38,040
Speaker 3: of the week and get out of.

1584
01:17:38,040 --> 01:17:48,000
Speaker 4: Here one pick one chance to Advance Survivor week one through.

1585
01:17:48,000 --> 01:17:52,919
Speaker 3: FOUR i Used, Pittsburgh, Tennessee Indie, Rams you Use Buffalo

1586
01:17:53,000 --> 01:17:54,840
Speaker 3: cleveland and then The colts And rams as.

1587
01:17:54,920 --> 01:17:56,599
Speaker 4: Well where are we going for week.

1588
01:17:56,640 --> 01:17:59,600
Speaker 2: FIVE i have an article out On Action network with my.

1589
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:02,639
Speaker 2: Plan sticking to my plan for, NOW i have the

1590
01:18:02,680 --> 01:18:04,760
Speaker 2: forty Nine. Ers, now If JIMMY g doesn't, PLAY i

1591
01:18:04,880 --> 01:18:07,040
Speaker 2: might change, that But i'm still Confident san fran wins'

1592
01:18:07,240 --> 01:18:11,759
Speaker 2: game after they're loss last. Week If JIMMY g, doesn't

1593
01:18:11,760 --> 01:18:14,160
Speaker 2: plan might, reevaluate BUT i don't want to Use this

1594
01:18:14,240 --> 01:18:15,560
Speaker 2: is my whole. PREMISE i don't want to use The.

1595
01:18:15,600 --> 01:18:17,479
Speaker 2: CHIEFS i don't want to use The ravens this. EARLY

1596
01:18:17,520 --> 01:18:19,599
Speaker 2: a lot of people might have or might use them

1597
01:18:19,640 --> 01:18:23,000
Speaker 2: this week in games they should, win But i'm saving

1598
01:18:23,000 --> 01:18:24,800
Speaker 2: them for later in the year if my objective is to,

1599
01:18:24,840 --> 01:18:28,400
Speaker 2: win so when other people probably don't have. Them So

1600
01:18:28,479 --> 01:18:31,880
Speaker 2: i'm sticking with my plan as of now and for this,

1601
01:18:31,920 --> 01:18:34,559
Speaker 2: Podcast i'll go with the forty nine. ERS i may

1602
01:18:34,640 --> 01:18:36,400
Speaker 2: have to change my plan for next, week, though so

1603
01:18:36,400 --> 01:18:38,320
Speaker 2: stay tuned for. That because as of, NOW i had

1604
01:18:38,320 --> 01:18:42,559
Speaker 2: The broncos preliminary slated to use them at home against

1605
01:18:42,600 --> 01:18:46,599
Speaker 2: The dolphins on their second straight road game outside out

1606
01:18:46,960 --> 01:18:49,519
Speaker 2: on The West. Coast but The broncos are a shell of,

1607
01:18:49,520 --> 01:18:52,800
Speaker 2: themselves so that might have to be switched to another,

1608
01:18:52,840 --> 01:18:55,000
Speaker 2: team but that'll be next, week but for this, week

1609
01:18:55,040 --> 01:18:55,439
Speaker 2: forty Nine.

1610
01:18:55,560 --> 01:18:59,920
Speaker 4: Ers, yeah it's the forty nine ers are chief from.

1611
01:18:59,880 --> 01:19:03,559
Speaker 3: ME i get this strategy of saving The, chiefs But

1612
01:19:03,600 --> 01:19:05,160
Speaker 3: i'm just gonna go with The chiefs just because we

1613
01:19:05,200 --> 01:19:07,519
Speaker 3: don't know what's going on with the forty nine ers

1614
01:19:07,560 --> 01:19:10,760
Speaker 3: just quite yet at the quarterback. Situation So i'll go With.

1615
01:19:10,880 --> 01:19:15,400
Speaker 3: Chiefs you, Go. Niners hopefully we continue to survive and

1616
01:19:15,479 --> 01:19:18,760
Speaker 3: you guys do as. Well this has been another edition

1617
01:19:18,960 --> 01:19:23,320
Speaker 3: of The Action NETWORK nfl. Podcast be sure to check

1618
01:19:23,320 --> 01:19:25,160
Speaker 3: out the other shows on the.

1619
01:19:25,479 --> 01:19:26,519
Speaker 4: Channel we Have.

1620
01:19:26,479 --> 01:19:29,400
Speaker 3: Stuck In Colin wilson with The College Football pod On

1621
01:19:29,479 --> 01:19:32,559
Speaker 3: friday and The Recap pod On, monday as well as

1622
01:19:32,600 --> 01:19:36,400
Speaker 3: The Fantasy Flex pod with Myself Matthew, Friedman Shawan corner

1623
01:19:36,600 --> 01:19:40,000
Speaker 3: and always a great guest that comes out On.

1624
01:19:40,880 --> 01:19:43,559
Speaker 4: Wednesdays so until next.

1625
01:19:43,600 --> 01:19:47,320
Speaker 3: Time you can Find stuck On twitter At stucky two

1626
01:19:47,479 --> 01:19:49,360
Speaker 3: and you can find them in The Action network app

1627
01:19:49,400 --> 01:19:51,240
Speaker 3: At stucky two as, well and you can find me

1628
01:19:51,320 --> 01:19:55,960
Speaker 3: on both of those At Chris raybon that's At Chris

1629
01:19:56,040 --> 01:19:58,639
Speaker 3: raybond and be sure to check Out actionnetwork dot com

1630
01:19:58,680 --> 01:20:02,320
Speaker 3: for all of our GREAT I felt betting in fantasy

1631
01:20:02,840 --> 01:20:06,000
Speaker 3: Content until next week let's get this smart.

1632
01:20:06,800 --> 01:20:24,280
Speaker 2: School we're finished talking