Speaker 1: The Volume. All right, welcome to Hoops and Night. Here
Speaker 1: at the Volume. Happy Tuesday, everybody. Round two coverage of
Speaker 1: the NBA Playoffs Here at Hoops Tonight is brought to
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Speaker 1: So I wake up this morning and walking over to
Speaker 1: my coffee machine to sit down and watch some film,
Speaker 1: and it dogs on me. I'm like I said at
Speaker 1: the beginning of last night's show, I was going to
Speaker 1: talk about Nick's Heat and then I totally forgot to.
Speaker 1: So I sincerely apologize to the Knicks fans and Heat
Speaker 1: fans or anybody who was interested in hearing a breakdown
Speaker 1: about that game. We are going to get to it
Speaker 1: this morning, just gonna go for like eight to ten minutes,
Speaker 1: given my thoughts on that series. You guys know the
Speaker 1: drill before we get started. To subscribe to the Volumes
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Speaker 1: them wherever you get your podcasts Under Hoops tonight, All right,
Speaker 1: let's talk some basketball. I have never in my time
Speaker 1: covering the league ben as wrong about a team as
Speaker 1: I've been about this Miami Heat team. Now, in my defense,
Speaker 1: you guys know, kind of the way we do this show,
Speaker 1: I'm going to pay attention to what I'm seeing on
Speaker 1: film and pay attention to the trends and what we
Speaker 1: learn about these teams from the regular season and try
Speaker 1: to use that to project forward. And the Heat, desperately
Speaker 1: fighting for playing position, went twelve to thirteen over their
Speaker 1: last twenty five games, got their asses kicked by the
Speaker 1: Atlanta Hawks at home in the first playing game, and
Speaker 1: then we're trailing by three late in the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: in the second playing game against the Chicago Bulls. So
Speaker 1: that was the information I was using to project forward.
Speaker 1: That said, I think where I went wrong is I
Speaker 1: did not properly account for the fact that this is
Speaker 1: a team that won, is extremely well coached, and will
Speaker 1: inevitably play above their pay great in the playoffs. This
Speaker 1: is benefit of the doubt that I've given to the
Speaker 1: Warriors over the years that I should have applied to
Speaker 1: the Heat. That was my mistake. Jimmy Butler, same type
Speaker 1: of thing, a player whose impact goes so much higher
Speaker 1: into the playoffs. And I did factor these things in,
Speaker 1: but just not enough. I should have weighed them even
Speaker 1: more heavily than I did. Even as I looked at
Speaker 1: that Milwaukee Bucks series, and I look at Giannis missing
Speaker 1: three games, and just some of the crazy factors like
Speaker 1: Milwaukee having significant double digit leads in the fourth quarter
Speaker 1: in each of the last two Miami Heat wins, it
Speaker 1: just clouded my judgment a little bit, and I was
Speaker 1: very wrong. I said they didn't have enough shot creation.
Speaker 1: Jimmy Butler, bam Adebayo and the guards have all been fantastic.
Speaker 1: Kyle Lowry again last night, just manufacturing offense for them
Speaker 1: when they need it. I said they weren't big enough.
Speaker 1: They've soundly out rebounded the Knicks, who were one of
Speaker 1: the league's best rebounding teams is here, including just smashing
Speaker 1: them on the gas in the last two games. And
Speaker 1: now they're up three to one, and this series looks
Speaker 1: like I believe the Heat will win at this point,
Speaker 1: probably in five, maybe six. There are three dynamics, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, that I've swung this series away from where
Speaker 1: I projected it, and I think I picked nix and
Speaker 1: six originally that's obviously dead on arrival. There are three
Speaker 1: things I want to hit really quick. One gap in
Speaker 1: spot up conversion. The spot up situations are are much
Speaker 1: more convoluted than just three point shooting. A lot of
Speaker 1: people focus on three point shooting. I prefer spot up
Speaker 1: point per possession because one of the things you can
Speaker 1: do to beat a team in a spot up situation
Speaker 1: is attack close out right. It's a much more fluid situation.
Speaker 1: Basketball is more complicated than just how what's your three
Speaker 1: point percentage? Right? Even when you look at three point percentages,
Speaker 1: there are different factors. How many isolation threes are you taking,
Speaker 1: how many bailout and of shot clock threes are you taking,
Speaker 1: or are you only taking catch and shoot threes? Are
Speaker 1: you being left open by the opposing defense, or are they
Speaker 1: panic chasing you off the line. All of that stuff
Speaker 1: factors in to what your three point percentage is. So
Speaker 1: that's why I prefer to look at spot up points
Speaker 1: per possession. Well, the Knicks were a middle of the
Speaker 1: pack spot up shooting team during the regular season. They
Speaker 1: were not as bad as the narrative surrounding them coming
Speaker 1: into this series. That was a big part of why
Speaker 1: I picked them over the Calves. The Knicks were a
Speaker 1: much much better spot up shooting team in the regular
Speaker 1: season than the Calves were, and I thought that Manu
Speaker 1: manifested throughout the series well one point zero three points
Speaker 1: per possession or in the regular season. In the Game
Speaker 1: one loss, the Knicks converted spoted possessions at zero point
Speaker 1: four points per possession, so less than half the efficiency
Speaker 1: they had in the regular season. In the Game three loss,
Speaker 1: zero points seven to six points per possession, so about
Speaker 1: two thirds to three fourths the efficiency that they had
Speaker 1: during the regular season. And then in Game three they
Speaker 1: were slightly better one point per possession, but still below
Speaker 1: their regular season average. So after and guess what, they
Speaker 1: were up over one point two points per possession on
Speaker 1: spot up situations in the Game two win at home.
Speaker 1: So again, like Miami, Eric Spolser has been given the
Speaker 1: lead because of the complete collapse of the Knicks spot
Speaker 1: up players to load up on these Jalen Brunson pick
Speaker 1: and rolls in these ISOs, and to load up on
Speaker 1: these Julius Randall bullyball possessions, and that's allowed them to
Speaker 1: force turnovers, force missus get out and transition find easier
Speaker 1: opportunities in the open floor. That to me, has completely
Speaker 1: flipped the dynamic of the Knicks on offense. They're spot
Speaker 1: up shooting and spot up close out attacking, which was
Speaker 1: reliable for them all season, not great, but reliable, totally
Speaker 1: let them down in this series and that completely messed
Speaker 1: up the offensive end for them. Secondly, gap in star
Speaker 1: performance every single time we did Nicks videos this year's
Speaker 1: this year, I told you guys that the Knicks will
Speaker 1: go as far as Jalen Brunson and Julius Randall take them.
Speaker 1: They need star production and Jalen Brunson has been great
Speaker 1: throughout this postseason run, but Julius Randall just has not. Now,
Speaker 1: in his defense, I do think the ankle has played
Speaker 1: a role. He was in such a great jump shooting
Speaker 1: rhythm throughout the regular season and that got disrupted by
Speaker 1: him being away from the game to rest and ankle injury.
Speaker 1: So I mean, I'd love it might have something to
Speaker 1: do with the postseason, might have something to do the
Speaker 1: way he's guarded, but I do think the injury has
Speaker 1: played a role. But the reality is is in this
Speaker 1: series They've combined to average just forty five points per
Speaker 1: game on only okay efficiency, and both have been ice
Speaker 1: cold from three. That's the one thing with Jalen Brunson
Speaker 1: that hasn't been working is he's calling for these ball
Speaker 1: screens and he's getting pretty good looks going to his right,
Speaker 1: which is where left handed shooters like good balance, good lift,
Speaker 1: and Jalen Brunston just can't stick these pull up threes
Speaker 1: right now. It's been a big problem. Julius Randall has
Speaker 1: thirteen turnovers so far in three games. I think Jimmy
Speaker 1: Butler and bam Adebayo have soundly outplayed them. They're also
Speaker 1: averaging forty five points per game, but on much higher efficiency,
Speaker 1: much better playmaking, and both of them are monumentally better
Speaker 1: as defensive players. So after out playing Mitchell and Garland
Speaker 1: in Round one to swing that series, the Brunson Randall
Speaker 1: duo just has not been good enough in this second
Speaker 1: round series against the Miami Heat. And last but not
Speaker 1: at least, the rebounding. The Knicks were the second best
Speaker 1: rebounding team in the league this year. They grabbed thirty
Speaker 1: two percent of their own misses. That's how dominant they
Speaker 1: were on the offensive glass. Guess what, The Miami Heat
Speaker 1: grabbed fifty five point five percent of all available rebounds
Speaker 1: in the two wins in Miami to go up three
Speaker 1: to one. So even though the Knicks are the bigger,
Speaker 1: more physical, more athletic team, the Heat have played more physical,
Speaker 1: have played bigger, and have looked like the more well coached,
Speaker 1: more desperate team throughout this series, and it's allowed them
Speaker 1: to beat a Knicks team that I think has more
Speaker 1: talent up and down the roster. Albeit I think you
Speaker 1: can say definitively that Butler and baman Obayo are a
Speaker 1: much better playoff duo in terms of their star performance.
Speaker 1: But you know, on the Knicks front, it's it's just
Speaker 1: something that they're gonna have to come to terms with.
Speaker 1: That Julius Randall piece. Is Is it the injury? I
Speaker 1: don't know, but that's gonna be the weak piece I think.
Speaker 1: I think Jalen Brunson has definitively proved himself as a
Speaker 1: playoff player and a guy that you can have in
Speaker 1: this role, but I think they might need to upgrade
Speaker 1: that wing forward star position to have a real chance
Speaker 1: to contend looking into the future. Last note of the
Speaker 1: Miami Heat. This is guys. They're one win away from
Speaker 1: being in the conference finals three times in the last
Speaker 1: four years in a conference that has a really good
Speaker 1: Boston Celtics team, a really good Philadelphia seventy six Ers team,
Speaker 1: and outstanding Milwaukee Bucks team. The fact that they've been
Speaker 1: one of the final two standing in three of the
Speaker 1: last four years is incredibly impressive. It's a testament to
Speaker 1: Eric Spolster, who I believe is the best coach in basketball,
Speaker 1: the best at making opposing teams and schemes uncomfortable and
Speaker 1: making teams go to areas of their game that they're
Speaker 1: not great at. It's a testament to Jimmy Butler and
Speaker 1: his success as a playoff player. This guy has soundly
Speaker 1: outplayed Tatum and Brown in the twenty twenty Bubble to
Speaker 1: go to the NBA Finals, soundly outplayed Giannis and Tanan
Speaker 1: Kombo this year right to and now. Giannis was hurt,
Speaker 1: but in the two games down the stretch in Game four,
Speaker 1: in Game five of that series, Jimmy was just a
Speaker 1: better player, particularly at the end of games. I thought
Speaker 1: he soundly outplayed Jason Tatum in the conference finals last year,
Speaker 1: just obviously didn't quite have the talent at his disposal,
Speaker 1: but he still was one shot away from stealing that
Speaker 1: series despite being at a like a massive talent disadvantage.
Speaker 1: And here he is right now out playing Jalen Brunson
Speaker 1: and Julius Randall. So I mean, I've learned my lesson
Speaker 1: and this team is going to be just like the
Speaker 1: Golden State Warriors for me moving forward, where I just
Speaker 1: have to give them a huge amount of the benefit
Speaker 1: of the doubt. And if we're sitting in early April
Speaker 1: next year and the Miami Heat are, you know, thirty
Speaker 1: nine and thirty eight, and we're like, man, they're mediocre.
Speaker 1: This roster isn't very good. Blah blah blah blah blah.
Speaker 1: It comes time to start picking in the playoffs. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna be tempted to pick Miami in every single series
Speaker 1: because they just find they just find a way. It's
Speaker 1: it's it's truly impressive. It's a testament to just everything
Speaker 1: I love about the game of basketball. Talent's important, but
Speaker 1: it's not what wins the day. It's a combination of
Speaker 1: your talent with your schematic approach, your basketball IQ. You're
Speaker 1: coaching the superstars and their ability to overcome uh less
Speaker 1: than ideal situations. Shout out to the mind heat many.
Speaker 1: They're doing it again. They're doing it again, right in
Speaker 1: front of our eyes. All right, guys, I will be back.
Speaker 1: We're doing a double video tonight, so we'll be going
Speaker 1: live on AMP, I believe, right after Celtic sixers, and
Speaker 1: then we'll be going uh just on YouTube later in
Speaker 1: the evening after Nuggets suns. I appreciate you, guys, and
Speaker 1: I'll see you later tonight. The volume