WEBVTT - How The Bond Market Changed During A Veteran Trader's Decades On Wall Street

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<v Speaker 1>Hello, and welcome to another edition of the aw Thoughts Podcast.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe. Wasn't so, Joe, what's

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<v Speaker 1>the one topic that I enjoy talking about more than

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<v Speaker 1>anything else? I was gonna say, Actually, I wish you're

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<v Speaker 1>here to say more than anything else. I wish you

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<v Speaker 1>would just left in it. What's the one topic I

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<v Speaker 1>enjoy talking about? Because I kind of feel like with

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of our recent episodes, it's like, all right,

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<v Speaker 1>we're doing this topic that I really don't care about

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<v Speaker 1>and forced myself to learn about. They're all interesting topics, Joe,

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<v Speaker 1>It's just I feel like I'm immediately on the back

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<v Speaker 1>foot when we're doing poker or chess or anything like that,

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<v Speaker 1>or sports and games in general. But it is true

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<v Speaker 1>that you have one topic that you regularly like coming

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<v Speaker 1>back to and always really enjoy. I'll let you. I'll

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<v Speaker 1>let you bring it up. Sure, alright. So the topic

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<v Speaker 1>is the bond market, and specifically bond market structure, right,

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<v Speaker 1>the history of the bond market, how it actually works.

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<v Speaker 1>As we've explored in multiple post posts episodes on this podcast,

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<v Speaker 1>it's very complicated and far more sort of uh, far

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<v Speaker 1>more many structural issues arise that, say the stock market,

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<v Speaker 1>which to some extent I think people get how the

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<v Speaker 1>stock market works. Yeah. So the analogy that people often use,

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<v Speaker 1>at least when it comes to the corporate bond market

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<v Speaker 1>is to say that it's it's kind of like the

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<v Speaker 1>stock market in say THEES and that a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>it still trades by appointment and over the phone. But

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<v Speaker 1>on the other hand, you have the government bond market,

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<v Speaker 1>the treasury market, and that has actually shifted to some

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<v Speaker 1>electronic trading quite well, I don't know if you'd say rapidly,

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<v Speaker 1>but quite significantly. But then again, on the other hand,

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<v Speaker 1>the credit market is still stubbornly old fashioned, pretty impressive

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<v Speaker 1>in its own way. Yes, yeah, okay, so we know

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<v Speaker 1>we're going to talk about that today, but what what

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<v Speaker 1>are we going to talk about specifically? All right, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm really excited because to talk about the bond market,

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<v Speaker 1>we've tapped someone who's been in the bond market for

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<v Speaker 1>decades and who works at Bloomberg. So probably well, I

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<v Speaker 1>was gonna say, probably somebody who's seen a lot of changes,

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<v Speaker 1>but per yourt changes, all right, Well, we'll have to

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<v Speaker 1>ask him whether or not there have been any changes.

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<v Speaker 1>So we're going to talk to Rob Elson. He is

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<v Speaker 1>an analyst on Bloomberg First Word, and he covers the

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<v Speaker 1>bond market day in and day out. Let's do it, Rob,

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. You know,

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<v Speaker 1>I just introd you saying that you've been in the

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<v Speaker 1>market for many decades now, but you had a kind

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<v Speaker 1>of interesting career path into bonds. Is that the right

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<v Speaker 1>way to put it? Um? Yes, after college, I went

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<v Speaker 1>to law school for about twenty minutes and was immediately drafted.

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<v Speaker 1>Um the nanosecond after I dropped out. Um, So this

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<v Speaker 1>would have been in the sixties seventies, right, It would

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<v Speaker 1>have been in law school, and then seventy in the Army,

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<v Speaker 1>the last year of which was an interesting year in Vietnam.

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<v Speaker 1>And when I came back to the States after that,

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<v Speaker 1>my college roommate who had legitimately I might had been

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<v Speaker 1>four ha legitimately had been working in New York and

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<v Speaker 1>then quit that I was traveling in Europe, got back

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<v Speaker 1>to New York about the same time I did, and

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<v Speaker 1>he said, Hey, I've tried this work stuff. It's not

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<v Speaker 1>such a big deal. I'm going across country. Want to come?

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<v Speaker 1>And I figured well, better to do it before I

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<v Speaker 1>start working. So we spent six thousand miles going across

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<v Speaker 1>country somehow and wound up on a little island called

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<v Speaker 1>Vashon in Puget Sound off the coast of Seattle. And

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<v Speaker 1>that was a very interesting year. And after that I

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<v Speaker 1>came back to New York and looked for a job.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the women I had went to college with

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<v Speaker 1>had a connection at what was then First National City Bank,

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<v Speaker 1>and I went in for an interview in the guy

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<v Speaker 1>who was going to interview me wasn't available, and basically

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<v Speaker 1>sat me down with a guy who had turned out

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<v Speaker 1>was a treasury bond salesman. I'm sitting at his desk

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<v Speaker 1>for about thirty seconds or a minute or so, his

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<v Speaker 1>phone rings. Uh. He goes yep, yep, and looks across

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<v Speaker 1>the trading room and yells to buddy you or whatever

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<v Speaker 1>the guy's name was at the time. Bid fifty six

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<v Speaker 1>is for American Road, which was their code for Ford

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<v Speaker 1>Motor Company back in those days. And the guy yelled

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<v Speaker 1>the number back at him, and he repeated it into

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<v Speaker 1>the phone and then sort of flicked his finger at

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<v Speaker 1>the guy on the other side of the room and

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<v Speaker 1>said yep, thanks very much and hung up the phone

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<v Speaker 1>and I said, what just happened? And he said, I

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<v Speaker 1>sold fifty million six month treasury bills to Ford Motor Company.

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<v Speaker 1>And I said to myself, oh, I could do that.

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<v Speaker 1>As it turned out, I could, but you don't really

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<v Speaker 1>get to be very good at until a year or

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<v Speaker 1>two goes by. But you got the job, right. I

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<v Speaker 1>got the job so real quickly. What strikes me already

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<v Speaker 1>about this story is, you know, when I think of

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<v Speaker 1>people trying to get into Wall Street these days, I

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<v Speaker 1>think of people who for years have had the ambition

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<v Speaker 1>of getting into Wall Street. Maybe they studied some business

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<v Speaker 1>and some math and technical stuff and internship took all

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<v Speaker 1>kinds of sort of licensing. Like it seems like there's

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<v Speaker 1>this model person who really tries to get it into

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<v Speaker 1>finance and check all the boxes. And I get the

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<v Speaker 1>impression from your story and other stories that we've heard

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<v Speaker 1>at the time that it was definitely a bit more

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<v Speaker 1>informal that people with more sort of unusual diverse backgrounds.

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<v Speaker 1>And I'm saying that from a sort of experience and

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<v Speaker 1>education standpoint could find their way in. Is that fair

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<v Speaker 1>to characterize it that way? It's absolutely correct. There was literally,

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<v Speaker 1>I think one masters amongst the people that I worked with,

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<v Speaker 1>and I think he had a master's and something like

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<v Speaker 1>geology or something. There was no such thing as an

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<v Speaker 1>NBA that anybody in the bond market knew anything about internships.

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<v Speaker 1>The only introduction to this that I had was sitting

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<v Speaker 1>at this guy's desk. I had no idea what the

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<v Speaker 1>bond market was other than it was sort of like

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<v Speaker 1>the stock market, and that was it. U one of

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<v Speaker 1>the fell those I worked with, and by the way,

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<v Speaker 1>who was times I am working with again here at

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg actually came out of a seminary, dropped out of

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<v Speaker 1>a seminary and it became became a bound salesman, So

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<v Speaker 1>very very different times. It was sort of you know,

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<v Speaker 1>if you knew somebody who knew somebody to get you

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<v Speaker 1>in the door, you had a shot at an interview

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<v Speaker 1>and then whatever happened happened. So what was trading actually

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<v Speaker 1>like when you started and how did you find it?

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<v Speaker 1>Was it hard or was it easy for you? I

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<v Speaker 1>don't really remember, except to say that I think instinctively

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<v Speaker 1>I knew that I didn't know anything, and so what

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<v Speaker 1>I did when I started covering people who were real

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<v Speaker 1>clients and had real experience and managed money and knew

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<v Speaker 1>what they were doing. I wouldn't pretend that I knew

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<v Speaker 1>what I was doing. But if the first guy I

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<v Speaker 1>spoke to in the morning said something something smart or

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<v Speaker 1>what I took to be smart, I would rearrange it

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<v Speaker 1>and repeat it to the second guy. And then the

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<v Speaker 1>second guy would either agree or sometimes say no, that's

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<v Speaker 1>not right because of x y Z. So I could

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<v Speaker 1>go back to the first guy and say, well, what

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<v Speaker 1>about x y Z? And slowly, slowly you begin to

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<v Speaker 1>figure out what's important. And you know, when the FED

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<v Speaker 1>does something, what does that mean? And it was just

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<v Speaker 1>a different world at that time. What were the characteristics

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<v Speaker 1>of a good bond trader or a good bond salesman?

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<v Speaker 1>What did the people who are really good at it

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<v Speaker 1>versus the people who are sort of mediocre at adverse

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<v Speaker 1>to people who are let go? What did those really

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<v Speaker 1>top ones possessed? Question? And I have an interesting response.

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<v Speaker 1>When I started as a trainee, it was unknown as

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<v Speaker 1>to whether I would wind up in sales or trading.

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<v Speaker 1>And one day the head trader called me up on

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<v Speaker 1>the trading desk and sat me down next to him,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, I picked up the phone and listened

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<v Speaker 1>to his phone calls. And at one point he picked

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<v Speaker 1>up a phone to one of the brokers and got

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<v Speaker 1>a run of let's say, two year notes. And so

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<v Speaker 1>the guy was saying, uh, fifteen sixteen twenty on the November's,

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<v Speaker 1>on the November's, And the trader just said, uh, I'll

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<v Speaker 1>buy the October's, sell the November's. And then he picked

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<v Speaker 1>up a handful of tickets and tossed them to be

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<v Speaker 1>and said, write the tickets. And well, yes, I had

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<v Speaker 1>been listening into the phone call. I really didn't pick

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<v Speaker 1>up quickly enough to know what I was supposed to

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<v Speaker 1>be buying and selling. And I think that was my

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<v Speaker 1>holding my feet to the fire, and that was my test.

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<v Speaker 1>And then I was in sales. The guys who were traders,

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<v Speaker 1>the good guys, they had some instinct about it. They

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<v Speaker 1>they just knew in their fiber that something was getting

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<v Speaker 1>overbought or oversold, the market was getting ahead of itself,

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<v Speaker 1>or they could read that when a big portfolio came

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<v Speaker 1>in and bored or sold something, they knew what was

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<v Speaker 1>going to happen next. I don't think it was a

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<v Speaker 1>skill that you could learn very easily. These guys really

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<v Speaker 1>just did it from the gut and off the top

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<v Speaker 1>of their heads, and in some cases were amazing money makers.

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<v Speaker 1>So Rob, I want to move on to the evolution

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<v Speaker 1>of the bond market over the last few decades. But

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<v Speaker 1>before we do, what's the most interesting or remarkable thing

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<v Speaker 1>that happened to you during your career. Is there one

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<v Speaker 1>sort of incident that stands out? I think it was

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<v Speaker 1>seventy four. I had started in October of seventy one,

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<v Speaker 1>I think it was four. Interest rates were high, although

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<v Speaker 1>not as high as they would go, and the Treasury

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<v Speaker 1>would auction UH coupons where they had already set what

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<v Speaker 1>the coupon was going to be, and so there were

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<v Speaker 1>what came to be called the front nine and the

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<v Speaker 1>back nine. Of course, everybody played golf in those days.

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<v Speaker 1>In any event, I think it was the nines of

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<v Speaker 1>seventy seven and the nine And we're at the morning

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<v Speaker 1>meeting and I literally pounded on the conference room table

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<v Speaker 1>and I said, nobody's going to buy these. Everybody thinks

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<v Speaker 1>they're gonna wait, and you're gonna get ten percent if

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<v Speaker 1>we take a position in these. We're making a big mistake.

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<v Speaker 1>Don't do it. I'm telling you, don't do it. And

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<v Speaker 1>the boss looked at the senior salesman and said the

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<v Speaker 1>end of the world speech, and that's what it was.

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<v Speaker 1>And I gave them the information that things were so

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<v Speaker 1>bleak that nobody knew what was going to happen. And

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<v Speaker 1>they went and bought as many as could at the

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<v Speaker 1>time of both auctions, and the market went straight up,

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<v Speaker 1>and yields dropped something like a hundred basis points, and

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<v Speaker 1>it went up being a big home run for them.

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<v Speaker 1>And I always try and remember that, particularly when I'm

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<v Speaker 1>looking at charts about where we are now. Interest rates

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<v Speaker 1>have been going down for a very very long time,

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<v Speaker 1>and and yes we're higher than we were, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>from the old time lows, but still when you look

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<v Speaker 1>at a long term chart, we have barely budged off

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<v Speaker 1>the bottom. I think. I don't know whether they'll live

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<v Speaker 1>to see it or not, but I think that one

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<v Speaker 1>of these days, somewhere down the road, the FED will

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<v Speaker 1>tighten in a way that will take the breadth away

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<v Speaker 1>of market participants, and we will have a bear market

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<v Speaker 1>that will just amaze people. I don't think there are

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<v Speaker 1>very many people left who really have ever seen a

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<v Speaker 1>real bear market? Right, I was just going to point

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<v Speaker 1>out for listeners who aren't aware that essentially bonds have

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<v Speaker 1>been in a ball market now, you know, over thirty

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<v Speaker 1>five years. I mean, there have been some ups and

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<v Speaker 1>downs during that time, but for over three decades bonds

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<v Speaker 1>have been in a ball market. So what does that mean.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, if we do get you know, as you say,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe it's a FED induced move, that it creates a

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<v Speaker 1>real bear market, not like this little like sell off

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<v Speaker 1>that we've had since last summer. What will be the

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<v Speaker 1>ramifications from the fact that so many, so few people

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<v Speaker 1>in the space these days have ever seen a bear market. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>it's not just that they've never seen a bear market,

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<v Speaker 1>it's also that the whole structure of the dealer can

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<v Speaker 1>unity has changed. People have serious risk limits and serious

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<v Speaker 1>position limits. The banks obviously have capital requirements that were

0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:18.320
<v Speaker 1>not in play over the years. So the question is

0:15:19.160 --> 0:15:24.960
<v Speaker 1>do the big dealers have the ability to stand there

0:15:25.640 --> 0:15:31.880
<v Speaker 1>and buy securities when they're going down by not one

0:15:32.000 --> 0:15:36.000
<v Speaker 1>or two basis points, by perhaps five or ten basis

0:15:36.080 --> 0:15:41.600
<v Speaker 1>points at a time. And I think that's a big question. Ultimately,

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:46.520
<v Speaker 1>in theory, the FED will have to be there is

0:15:46.600 --> 0:15:51.240
<v Speaker 1>the buyer of last resort, or at least that was

0:15:52.560 --> 0:15:56.120
<v Speaker 1>how it used to be. I suppose we could ask

0:15:56.160 --> 0:16:00.000
<v Speaker 1>the question, how many people are left at the fed um,

0:16:00.000 --> 0:16:03.760
<v Speaker 1>the open market desk who really have had, you know,

0:16:03.880 --> 0:16:07.920
<v Speaker 1>that experience. So is the issue with the market right now?

0:16:08.040 --> 0:16:11.560
<v Speaker 1>On the one hand, you have the shrinking of the

0:16:11.600 --> 0:16:15.040
<v Speaker 1>dealer balance sheets, their ability, their appetite to take risk.

0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:17.880
<v Speaker 1>Supposedly a lot of people argue with that point, by

0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:21.120
<v Speaker 1>the way, But at the same time, the way that

0:16:21.280 --> 0:16:25.400
<v Speaker 1>bonds are traded hasn't really changed. You know, you still

0:16:25.400 --> 0:16:27.400
<v Speaker 1>need to pick up the phone to someone. You still

0:16:27.400 --> 0:16:29.520
<v Speaker 1>need to put an order in. It's not like the

0:16:29.560 --> 0:16:32.920
<v Speaker 1>stock market that's highly liquid, where you can just enter

0:16:33.200 --> 0:16:36.720
<v Speaker 1>orders electronically. Is that the issue the dichotomy? Well, I

0:16:36.760 --> 0:16:44.240
<v Speaker 1>think that the conversations between clients and dealers has diminished.

0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:49.560
<v Speaker 1>Uh not for the big guys, um, the black Rocks

0:16:49.600 --> 0:16:53.280
<v Speaker 1>and the Goldman's presumably still talk daily to each other.

0:16:54.720 --> 0:16:59.800
<v Speaker 1>But for the vast majority of clients it's all electronic

0:17:00.040 --> 0:17:04.879
<v Speaker 1>mm hm. Electronic communication, you mean, and electronic trading. You

0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:08.320
<v Speaker 1>don't call up Bob Elson anymore and say you bid

0:17:08.520 --> 0:17:11.720
<v Speaker 1>fifty million two year notes. You know, you just do

0:17:11.800 --> 0:17:14.280
<v Speaker 1>it on the screen and you hit the enter and

0:17:14.960 --> 0:17:16.600
<v Speaker 1>you hit a bit. It's right there in front of

0:17:16.640 --> 0:17:18.879
<v Speaker 1>you and you see a trade. Yeah. I was just

0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:22.440
<v Speaker 1>going to ask about that. So obviously we talked about

0:17:22.480 --> 0:17:25.280
<v Speaker 1>the sort of you know, the changing rates market and

0:17:25.359 --> 0:17:28.480
<v Speaker 1>some of how different it is these days from a

0:17:28.600 --> 0:17:32.080
<v Speaker 1>technical standpoint. When did you start to see a change

0:17:32.160 --> 0:17:35.679
<v Speaker 1>in the way bonds themselves were dealt? What kind of

0:17:35.720 --> 0:17:39.159
<v Speaker 1>when did you start to notice this shift? And uh,

0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:42.040
<v Speaker 1>what hasn't changed or what would you have expected to

0:17:42.080 --> 0:17:45.359
<v Speaker 1>have changed by now that the industry is really holding

0:17:45.359 --> 0:17:51.440
<v Speaker 1>out on tell rate. I think was the first screen,

0:17:52.680 --> 0:17:57.720
<v Speaker 1>and I guess that was in the late mid to

0:17:57.840 --> 0:18:03.919
<v Speaker 1>late seventies, maybe later than that. This is all all

0:18:04.200 --> 0:18:10.520
<v Speaker 1>pre computer and pre Bloomberg. There was just nothing like

0:18:10.600 --> 0:18:14.320
<v Speaker 1>that after the world Bloomberg. Yes, I know, I know,

0:18:16.800 --> 0:18:20.560
<v Speaker 1>and I will tell you that when I first started

0:18:20.680 --> 0:18:25.000
<v Speaker 1>using Bloomberg and realized how much was there and how

0:18:25.080 --> 0:18:28.399
<v Speaker 1>much could be there, I would send the message to

0:18:28.520 --> 0:18:34.720
<v Speaker 1>Mr Bloomberg with the subject line being idea of the day,

0:18:34.880 --> 0:18:39.520
<v Speaker 1>and he always picked up his own messages back then,

0:18:40.720 --> 0:18:43.880
<v Speaker 1>and I'd say, you know, the money supply figures come

0:18:43.880 --> 0:18:47.840
<v Speaker 1>out on Thursday. But by the way, dealer positions also

0:18:47.920 --> 0:18:51.399
<v Speaker 1>come out, and you really should pick up dealer positions.

0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:55.320
<v Speaker 1>And lo and behold, one of his elves called and said,

0:18:55.720 --> 0:18:59.560
<v Speaker 1>what are dealer positions? And how do I find them?

0:18:59.600 --> 0:19:03.679
<v Speaker 1>And I drew him a little diagram and he figured

0:19:03.720 --> 0:19:06.359
<v Speaker 1>it out, and there it is. There's a function in

0:19:06.400 --> 0:19:11.720
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg that I can take responsibility for. Everything had been

0:19:11.840 --> 0:19:16.760
<v Speaker 1>on a personal level. Everything you spoke to good clients

0:19:16.880 --> 0:19:23.119
<v Speaker 1>multiple times a day, and everything was done on the phone,

0:19:23.760 --> 0:19:30.800
<v Speaker 1>and your word was your bond. Everything or a big

0:19:30.840 --> 0:19:35.840
<v Speaker 1>percentage of things is now all done electronically with less

0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:38.560
<v Speaker 1>and less human contact. Is there? As I can tell,

0:19:40.040 --> 0:19:43.240
<v Speaker 1>when we get to the bear market, will the dealers

0:19:43.320 --> 0:19:49.200
<v Speaker 1>just turn off the machine and not show prices and

0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:54.480
<v Speaker 1>not be able to be hit? And nobody knows. So

0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:57.200
<v Speaker 1>what's the one piece of advice you have for treasury

0:19:57.240 --> 0:20:02.080
<v Speaker 1>investors right now? Well, the one piece of advice for

0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:08.280
<v Speaker 1>everybody always is take the high road and know what

0:20:08.400 --> 0:20:11.520
<v Speaker 1>you know and know what you don't know, and don't

0:20:11.560 --> 0:20:15.520
<v Speaker 1>confuse the two. And I've always felt because of the

0:20:15.600 --> 0:20:21.560
<v Speaker 1>way I was treated by senior people who had no

0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:24.480
<v Speaker 1>business spending time with me because I didn't know what

0:20:24.520 --> 0:20:27.960
<v Speaker 1>I was talking about. I always felt like that I

0:20:28.040 --> 0:20:32.359
<v Speaker 1>owed it to the next group coming up, and so

0:20:32.480 --> 0:20:37.000
<v Speaker 1>I've always tried to spend time mentoring, if you will,

0:20:37.160 --> 0:20:41.960
<v Speaker 1>or at least helping out younger people, which is basically

0:20:42.000 --> 0:20:48.160
<v Speaker 1>every everybody. Now, all right, Rob Elson, BFW Analysts, thank

0:20:48.200 --> 0:21:01.840
<v Speaker 1>you so much for joining us today. My pleasure. So, Joe,

0:21:02.359 --> 0:21:04.959
<v Speaker 1>was that as interesting as poker or chest for you?

0:21:05.280 --> 0:21:08.239
<v Speaker 1>I thought it was very interesting and probably we should do,

0:21:08.480 --> 0:21:11.080
<v Speaker 1>you know, tilt this back towards a series of these.

0:21:11.119 --> 0:21:15.600
<v Speaker 1>I really do like this topic, and I'm particularly fascinated

0:21:15.640 --> 0:21:19.680
<v Speaker 1>by the cultural change aspect and the idea that the

0:21:19.720 --> 0:21:23.320
<v Speaker 1>industry wasn't once is sort of I don't know. It

0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:25.919
<v Speaker 1>strikes me a sort of conformist and everyone sort of

0:21:26.080 --> 0:21:28.880
<v Speaker 1>goes to the same path. And so hearing about Rob

0:21:29.040 --> 0:21:32.760
<v Speaker 1>driving across the country and then living on an island

0:21:32.880 --> 0:21:35.520
<v Speaker 1>off a Puget Sound for a year and then being

0:21:35.520 --> 0:21:37.959
<v Speaker 1>able to move from that into the bond world, uh,

0:21:38.080 --> 0:21:42.320
<v Speaker 1>sounds very cool and very much more positive vision than

0:21:42.480 --> 0:21:46.359
<v Speaker 1>people going straight from prep school to their ivy league NBA. Yeah,

0:21:46.440 --> 0:21:49.720
<v Speaker 1>you can't really imagine someone kind of wandering and off

0:21:49.720 --> 0:21:53.800
<v Speaker 1>the Goldman and asking to be a bond salesman now.

0:21:53.880 --> 0:21:56.760
<v Speaker 1>And it's also interesting, you know, this idea of you know,

0:21:56.920 --> 0:21:59.880
<v Speaker 1>we talked in the stock market, there's so much focus

0:22:00.040 --> 0:22:03.720
<v Speaker 1>on passive management and everyone wants to you know, robo

0:22:03.760 --> 0:22:06.239
<v Speaker 1>advisors and just set it and forget it. But that

0:22:06.320 --> 0:22:09.159
<v Speaker 1>whole period hasn't really seen a bear market yet, so

0:22:09.200 --> 0:22:10.879
<v Speaker 1>who knows if people are really going to stick with

0:22:10.920 --> 0:22:13.960
<v Speaker 1>passive the next time there's like a true crash, And

0:22:14.000 --> 0:22:17.439
<v Speaker 1>so very similar to what Rob was talking about, slightly different,

0:22:17.480 --> 0:22:19.760
<v Speaker 1>but we really don't know how people are going to

0:22:19.880 --> 0:22:22.119
<v Speaker 1>behave when there's a true bond market. We just have

0:22:22.200 --> 0:22:25.000
<v Speaker 1>no sell off. Yeah, that's absolutely right. And of course

0:22:25.119 --> 0:22:29.359
<v Speaker 1>the bond market US treasury yields in particular underpin pretty

0:22:29.440 --> 0:22:31.960
<v Speaker 1>much everything else in financial market, so you could see

0:22:31.960 --> 0:22:34.439
<v Speaker 1>this massive repricing. Of course, people have been predicting it

0:22:34.440 --> 0:22:37.000
<v Speaker 1>for a long time, so we might be we're still waiting.

0:22:37.000 --> 0:22:39.000
<v Speaker 1>It could be in ten years from now when we're

0:22:39.040 --> 0:22:41.520
<v Speaker 1>doing this, we could still be this podcast, which I'm

0:22:41.520 --> 0:22:43.720
<v Speaker 1>sure it will be in ten years. Of course, we

0:22:43.800 --> 0:22:45.720
<v Speaker 1>might still be talking about this topic of when it

0:22:45.760 --> 0:22:50.720
<v Speaker 1>comes All right, well, let's revisit it in what sounds good.

0:22:50.800 --> 0:22:53.440
<v Speaker 1>Looking forward to it all right, I'm Tracy Alloway. You

0:22:53.480 --> 0:22:55.919
<v Speaker 1>can follow me on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm

0:22:56.000 --> 0:22:58.119
<v Speaker 1>Joe wi Isn't all You could follow me on Twitter

0:22:58.240 --> 0:23:08.680
<v Speaker 1>at the Star Wars. Thanks for listening. The Year E