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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Europe podcast. Good morning, It's Friday,

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Speaker 2: the tenth of April. I'm Stephen Carolyn London. Coming up today.

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Speaker 2: US President Donald Trump ramps up his threats against Iran

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Speaker 2: over the Strait of Hormuz ahead of direct talks this weekend.

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Speaker 2: The White House warn staff against insider trading following a

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Speaker 2: series of well timed Iran war wagers. Plus is Africa

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Speaker 2: now a safe haven? Why one credit fund manager is

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Speaker 2: making the investment case for the continent in a world

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Speaker 2: of growing uncertainty. Let's start with a roundup of our

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Speaker 2: top stories. The United States and Iran are counting down

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Speaker 2: to the start of peace talks this weekend in Pakistan,

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Speaker 2: as Israeli strikes in Lebanon and the continued closure of

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Speaker 2: the Strait of Hormuz threatened to derail diplomatic efforts. On

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Speaker 2: social media, President Trump warned Tehran against charging transit fees

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Speaker 2: through the strait, saying they better not be and if

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Speaker 2: they are, they better stop now. The post followed earlier

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Speaker 2: remarks in which the US President said he was very

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Speaker 2: optimistic about securing a deal with Iran. Stuart Livingston Wallace

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Speaker 2: that leads Bloomberg's at Middle East coverage.

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Speaker 3: Certainly from the US side, it's going to be the

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Speaker 3: vice president, along with Wickhoff and Krishna. From the Iranian delegation.

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Speaker 3: We're not entirely sure yet, although they were supposed to

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Speaker 3: have arrived yesterday, Again some vagueness about whether that actually happened,

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Speaker 3: and it's entirely conceivable that others may join too. Clearly,

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Speaker 3: there is huge regional pressure here to get some sort

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Speaker 3: of cease fire. I mean the difficulties that they will

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Speaker 3: have going into this tool. So the same difficulties the

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Speaker 3: proceed of the war, which is the two size, and

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Speaker 3: I'm thinking specifically about the US in Iran, are so

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Speaker 3: far apart in terms of what they want to talk

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Speaker 3: about and largely what might constitute an acceptable position for

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Speaker 3: both of them.

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Speaker 2: That's Bloomberg, Stewart Livingston Wallace. Meanwhile, Israel's Prime Minister benjaminettanie

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Speaker 2: who has agreed to talks with Lebanon. President Trump said

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Speaker 2: the Israeli leader was going to low key it with

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Speaker 2: strikes on the content. However, Netaniahu was vowed to keep

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Speaker 2: fighting around back Tizbollah after a wave of strikes on Wednesday,

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Speaker 2: which kills more than three hundred people in Lebanon. As

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Speaker 2: diplomatic attention shifts to this weekend's talks, the risks to

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Speaker 2: global energy supplies from the war continue to grow. According

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Speaker 2: to Saudi Arabia's state run news agency, the kingdom has

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Speaker 2: last nearly six hundred thousand barrels a day of production

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Speaker 2: capacity as a result of Iranian attacks. The reports also

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Speaker 2: say its ability to export oil has been severely curtailed

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Speaker 2: strikes on a key red sea pipeline of cut off

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Speaker 2: flows through the conduit by around seven hundred thousand barrels.

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Speaker 2: World Bank President Ajebanga says it's still hard to assess

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Speaker 2: the full impact of the energy shock right now.

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Speaker 4: While there is some kind of a ceasefire, you can

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Speaker 4: make a guess. So what kind of damage has happened

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Speaker 4: to facilities. If the conflict to restart, then what kind

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Speaker 4: of damage continues to happen to energy production facilities is unclear.

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Speaker 4: Those two dimensions are what pay using. We've got a

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Speaker 4: scenario that says that if it comes to seat fire

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Speaker 4: now and three to four months of normalization, we have

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Speaker 4: some impact on growth, some impact on inflation, both on

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Speaker 4: the wrong side.

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Speaker 2: A Jo Bango speaking there to Bloomberger's markets face a

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Speaker 2: daily shortfall of more than ten million barrels, roughly one

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Speaker 2: tenth of global demand, due to the effect of closure

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Speaker 2: of the strait of Hormuz. Employees at the White House

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Speaker 2: were being warned not to place insider bets. Boomberg understands

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Speaker 2: a staff wise email has been sent after a series

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Speaker 2: of winning trades were made ahead of the President speaking

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Speaker 2: to the media. Bloomberg James Wilcock has more rewind two weeks.

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Speaker 5: It was six forty nine am in New York on

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Speaker 5: a Thursday, and a relatively sleepy hout of the trading day.

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Speaker 5: Suddenly spikes billions of dollars changed hands in futures contracts

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Speaker 5: for the S and P, Brent and the stocks. Fifty

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Speaker 5: fifteen minutes later, President Trump posts online about positive discussions

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Speaker 5: with Iran, making those earlier bets a lot of money.

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Speaker 5: Anonymous accounts on prediction markets also saw an early flurry

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Speaker 5: of correct bets, which prompted the White House's management office

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Speaker 5: to warn staff the day later about insider trading. Bloomberg

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Speaker 5: has no evidence White House of Visuals did profit from

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Speaker 5: inside information, which would be a gross breach of ethics

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Speaker 5: rules and the law. In London, James Worcock Bloomberg Radio, We're.

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Speaker 2: Turning now to another story from the United States. Wall

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Speaker 2: Street's top bank CEOs were called to an urgent meeting

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Speaker 2: at the US Treasury about the risk of a new

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Speaker 2: cybersecurity AI tool. Bloomberg has learned that both Treasury Secretary

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Speaker 2: Scott Bess and unfed charger Own Powell were worried about

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Speaker 2: anthropics Mythos tool. The AI company claims its daily The

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Speaker 2: Air Company claims its new model found cybersecurity flaws in

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Speaker 2: all major operating systems and web browsers. The US government

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Speaker 2: was asking banks if and how they might defend their

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Speaker 2: systems from potential future AI enabled cyber attacks. In Italy,

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Speaker 2: Prime Minister Georgia Maloney ousted the CEO of def firm

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Speaker 2: Leonardo as part of a move to project political authority

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Speaker 2: over state backed companies. Roberto singliani Is will be replaced

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Speaker 2: by Lorenzo Mariani, a company veteran and senior executive at

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Speaker 2: missile maker MBDA. The shakeup follows last month's polling setback

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Speaker 2: from Maloney that heightened attention on this round of executive appointments.

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Speaker 2: Her government chose to retain the leadership at energy majors

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Speaker 2: ENNI and ENEL for another three years. The UK and

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Speaker 2: the European Union are advancing discussions to let Ukraine buy

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Speaker 2: British weapons using the blocks stalled ninety billion euro loan.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg understands officials could move to formalized talks if Hungary

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Speaker 2: unblocks the loan following its election. On Sunday, the push

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Speaker 2: to a Ukraine came as British Defense Secretary John Healy

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Speaker 2: revealed a month long operation to track Russian submarines in

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Speaker 2: UK waters. Speaking to reporters, he gave a stark warning

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Speaker 2: to Russia's president.

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Speaker 6: And to President Putine I say we see you, We

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Speaker 6: see your activity over our cables and our pipelines, and

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Speaker 6: you should know that any attempt to damage them will

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Speaker 6: not be tolerated and will have serious consequences.

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Speaker 2: He Leiada that while eyes are trained on the Middle East,

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Speaker 2: the UK is in a state of constant readiness to

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Speaker 2: respond to Russian aggression, and at augusta national golf club,

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Speaker 2: the Masters is underway as we head into cut day,

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Speaker 2: the defending champlaining we're in McElroy is tied at the

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Speaker 2: top of the leader board with Sam Burns Boat sitting

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Speaker 2: at five under par. After the eighteen holes are completed today,

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Speaker 2: the field will be cut down to the top fifty players,

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Speaker 2: including ties. And those are your top stories on the markets.

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Speaker 2: The MSCIASA Pacific Index eight tenths higher this morning, Eurostaruck's

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Speaker 2: fifty futures are up by seven tenths of one percent,

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Speaker 2: and oil prices slightly higher today for Brown Crewed seven

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Speaker 2: tenths up at ninety six dollars and sixty four cents.

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Speaker 2: Now in the moment, we'll be joined by Michelle Hussein

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Speaker 2: to look ahead to this weekend's critical talks between Iran

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Speaker 2: and the United States and talk about the role that

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Speaker 2: Pakistan has played in bringing them together, plus why the

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Speaker 2: war in the Middle East is prompting some investors to

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Speaker 2: look for more opportunities across the African continent. But another

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Speaker 2: story that I've been reading this morning on a new

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Speaker 2: fear of flying, or perhaps a fear of not flying.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Compinion columnists to Howard Taiwan has been writing about

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Speaker 2: how the disruption to travel in the Gulf has reminded

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Speaker 2: many of us of our reliance on flying. A recent

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Speaker 2: trip had him worrying about what if travel costs became

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Speaker 2: prohibitive and flights were scarce. It quite rightly says that

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Speaker 2: we take our travel for granted, but not everyone does.

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Speaker 2: Only one in five people have ever been on a plane.

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Speaker 2: Europeans are among the privilege. You can travel freely to

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Speaker 2: much of the world without long visa processes, but restrictions

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Speaker 2: like during COVID or the major disruption in the Gulf

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Speaker 2: over the past month, or a reminder of how easily

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Speaker 2: these links can be severed. And Howard writes that in truth,

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Speaker 2: the omnipresence of a commercial flight is an illusion, but

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Speaker 2: that some of these journeys can be necessary or even transformative.

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Speaker 2: He has his own personal stories to about those life

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Speaker 2: changing flights, including a recent one to say goodbye to

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Speaker 2: his father. I'll let you read them for yourself at

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com. Forward slash Opinion. Well, let's bring you

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Speaker 2: more now on this weekend's talks between the United States

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Speaker 2: and Iran. Donald Trump ramping up his threats against Tehran

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Speaker 2: ahead of these discussions, which are taking place in Pakistan,

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Speaker 2: and that country has taken a leading role in brokering

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Speaker 2: the ceasefire. Bloombergs Michelle Hasseinisen speaking to Pakistan's former ambassador

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Speaker 2: to the United States and the UN about these diplomatic efforts,

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Speaker 2: and Michelle joins us now for more Good Morning. How

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Speaker 2: far apart ahead of these talks to Iran and the

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Speaker 2: United States look.

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Speaker 1: Going into this, the points that Iran put forward publicly

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Speaker 1: looked extremely ambitious and do look extremely ambitious. We've got

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Speaker 1: clear differences also over whether this ceasefire was ever intended

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Speaker 1: to or agreed to, include Lebanon having said that gatherings

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Speaker 1: of this kind do not happen unless the two sides

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Speaker 1: are not sufficiently interested in getting somewhere. And remember, it's

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Speaker 1: a big deal to have not only Steve Wikoff and

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Speaker 1: Jared Kushner, who've been the most prominent and involved in

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Speaker 1: all kinds of negotiations for President Trump, but also to

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Speaker 1: have Vice President JD. Evans leading this delegation and heading

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Speaker 1: to Islamabad for it. So Pakistan has really emerged as

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Speaker 1: a potential peace broker in the last couple of weeks,

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Speaker 1: and they will certainly be hoping that the two parties

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Speaker 1: don't want to leave Islamabad with nothing.

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Speaker 2: You've been discussing Pakistan's role and bringing about this ceasefire

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Speaker 2: and these negotiations on the latest episode of The Michae

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Speaker 2: Hussein Show, and you've been just talking about it with

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Speaker 2: someone who's been a leading figure in Pakistan's diplomatic corps.

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Speaker 2: Tell us about Malia Ladi.

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Speaker 7: Yes, we really wanted to dig into this with someone

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Speaker 7: who has a long experience not only of negotiation and diplomacy,

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Speaker 7: but also who's been a long term security and political analyst,

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Speaker 7: and that's why we turned to doctor Mili Halodi, who

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Speaker 7: has been Pakistan's ambassador at the United Nations during the

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Speaker 7: first Trump term, to the United Kingdom as well, and

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Speaker 7: also earlier ambassador to Washington, including when nine to eleven

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Speaker 7: took place, which was a moment of reset between the

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Speaker 7: US and Pakistan. So essentially, what she's done in this

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Speaker 7: conversation is look back and look forward. In their looking back,

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Speaker 7: she has charted in the last year how Pakistan's relationship

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Speaker 7: with the Trump administration developed, and particularly the one between

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Speaker 7: the President and the powerful Army chief, Field Marshal Arsi Menu.

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Speaker 7: He's been we're told, on the phone himself to the

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Speaker 7: President in the last few weeks, and it seems, according

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Speaker 7: to Monholodi, that that bond really developed when about a

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Speaker 7: year ago Pakistan handed over a terrorist suspect to the

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Speaker 7: United States.

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Speaker 1: Now that's the looking back part. She charts how that

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Speaker 1: relationship has developed to this point of trust, and then

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Speaker 1: looking forward, she has two big thoughts, One on her

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Speaker 1: own country and what it is achieved by being seen

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Speaker 1: in this international spotlight. And first, as you'll hear next,

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Speaker 1: how she feels this reflects on the United States itself,

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Speaker 1: that it started a wall and then couldn't contain the

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Speaker 1: economic fallout. And ultimately what this moment tells us about

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Speaker 1: the United States power in the Middle East.

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Speaker 8: America's dominance and the error of Americans dominance in the

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Speaker 8: region is basically over. It also shows, I mean, in

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Speaker 8: the case of my country and the role Pakistan played,

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Speaker 8: it shows the advent and the importance of middle parts

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Speaker 8: that are now able to shape geopolitics. So Pakistan, by

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Speaker 8: playing this role of mediation, has established itself as a

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Speaker 8: middle power which has the capacity to influence, if not shape,

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Speaker 8: international politics.

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Speaker 3: That's Meli A.

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Speaker 2: Lardi speaking to Michelle on the latest edition of Your Show.

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Speaker 2: What is her view on the prospect for the success

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Speaker 2: of these and for ending the war.

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Speaker 8: That is the big question.

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Speaker 1: Stephen, and I do want to reflect on Pakistan's self

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Speaker 1: interest although in all of this, not only on the

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Speaker 1: international stage, but also how massively it has been affected

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Speaker 1: in the last six weeks from the economic fallout of this.

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Speaker 1: It's a country that imports nearly all of its energy supplies,

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Speaker 1: and that means that schools have been closed, people have

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Speaker 1: it has been too expensive for people to get to

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Speaker 1: their workplaces, and in fact a lot of workplaces and

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Speaker 1: schools you know, essentially been ordered by the government to

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Speaker 1: move to a different model in order to conserve fuels.

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Speaker 1: So there's a huge amount at stake for Pakistan itself,

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Speaker 1: India and other countries that have also been affected in

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Speaker 1: that way from energy. So there is a lot riding

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Speaker 1: on this on multiple fronts, not least for Iran and

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Speaker 1: for the United States and for Israel's interest in this.

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Speaker 1: So it's a massive task, say certain themselves, and even

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Speaker 1: if something was agreed, you know, we know how we

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Speaker 1: know how complex these situations are, how they can be

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Speaker 1: derailed by individual actors, by groups within countries, or indeed

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Speaker 1: by mistake.

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Speaker 7: So it is it is.

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Speaker 1: It is a very tense situation and one can only

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Speaker 1: imagine what the atmosphere in those rooms in Islama Bad

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Speaker 1: they are going to be like over the weekend. But it

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Speaker 1: is a big moment for this conflict that finally we

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Speaker 1: have the prospect of the two sides meeting in this way.

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Speaker 1: Mali Heludi certainly does, you know, raise a lot of

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Speaker 1: questions about about the extent to which Israel will be

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Speaker 1: part of this and whether it could be in her words,

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Speaker 1: a rogue actor in compromising what may be agreed in Islamabad.

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Speaker 2: Michelle, it's a fascinating conversation that sets us up for

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Speaker 2: these very important diplomatic conversations happening in Pakistan. Thank you

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Speaker 2: for joining us this morning. We shall has saying there

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Speaker 2: and you can watch the full conversation between Milia Lodi

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Speaker 2: and Michelle Hussein at Bloomberg dot Com, Forward Slash Videos,

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Speaker 2: or listen to the latest episode of The Michelle Hussein

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Speaker 2: Show wherever you get your podcasts. Stay with us. More

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Speaker 2: from Bloomberg Daybreak Europe coming up after this. As investors

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Speaker 2: track the increasingly ralatile situation in the Middle East, it's

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Speaker 2: leading some to reshape their perception of risks in other

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Speaker 2: parts of the world. One leading credit fund manager in

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Speaker 2: London has told Bloomberg's Next Africa Podcasts that the conflicts

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Speaker 2: in the Middle Eastern Ukraine should prompt a rethink in

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Speaker 2: perceptions of investments in Africa. Bloombergs two out of bios

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Speaker 2: with us for more. This morning Tea with the Africa

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Speaker 2: Finance Corporation talks about African markets carrying a prejudice premium.

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Speaker 2: What does that mean.

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Speaker 9: So there's this sort of long established idea that African

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Speaker 9: governments and even businesses sometimes actually face a higher cost

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Speaker 9: of debt and that is often because of the narrative

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Speaker 9: that's associated with the region. So yeah, the Africa Finance

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Speaker 9: Corporation does mentioned this. It says you see sovereigns often

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Speaker 9: paying more than peers outside of the continent, even if

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Speaker 9: they have similar credit ratings, and that's due to the

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Speaker 9: perception of a certain things in Africa, like the rule

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Speaker 9: of law, perhaps security threats, and just a general assessment

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Speaker 9: made by the investment of how well things are being

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Speaker 9: run in the target country. So it's essentially the gap

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Speaker 9: between how Africa is assessed and the reality of its economies.

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Speaker 9: But it's nothing new We've been talking about this prejudiced

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Speaker 9: premium in relation to emerging markets for a long time,

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Speaker 9: and particularly Africa, and because of this, there are some

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Speaker 9: that even argue that Africa should have its own credit

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Speaker 9: rating agency to combat this. Namely, we've heard this from

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Speaker 9: Nigeria's President Bollatinebu earlier this year. There's just three African

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Speaker 9: countries actually that are rated investment grade, and that's even

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Speaker 9: as the IMF projects that the continent is set to

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Speaker 9: be the world's fastest growing region this year. It's something

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Speaker 9: that we do see in the data as well. So

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Speaker 9: the International Monetary Fund did a study last year and

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Speaker 9: it found that Sub Saharan African countries pay about half

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Speaker 9: a percentage point more to borrow and that's a gap

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Speaker 9: that widens in times of stress, so particularly relevant now

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Speaker 9: as we see conflict erupting in the Middle East and

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Speaker 9: other parts of the world.

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Speaker 2: You've been discussing this with Zaina Tif's CEO of the

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Speaker 2: credit fund TLG Capital on the Next Africa podcast. What's

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Speaker 2: his view of how that should change.

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Speaker 9: So it was a really interesting conversation because Zane's been

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Speaker 9: investing in Africa for more than sixteen years now. His

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Speaker 9: fund is focused on Sub Saharan Africa, and interestingly, he

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Speaker 9: described the recent global insecurity that we're seeing as actually

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Speaker 9: a boon for Africa. Fundamentally, he's saying that the more

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Speaker 9: risk that's associated with other parts of the world in

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Speaker 9: terms of war and other disruption, the better Africa actually

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Speaker 9: looks comparatively.

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Speaker 7: Here's how he put it to me.

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Speaker 10: So the risk premia associated with the Africa goes, oh

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Speaker 10: my god, things are going to happen. You don't know,

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Speaker 10: the politics, civil war, the disturbances, etc. Etc. And then

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Speaker 10: you're like, well, look at Russia, Ukraine, look at now

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Speaker 10: the least issue. So I think it has pierced a

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Speaker 10: lot of perceptions that the challenges in Africa, and they

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Speaker 10: are let's not hide around the bush, that there are

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Speaker 10: some deep seated challenges that need to be overcome, are

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Speaker 10: no different in some ways to what we see around

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Speaker 10: the world.

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Speaker 9: That was Zaan Latiev speaking to me on this week's

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Speaker 9: edition of the Bloombag Next Africa podcast, And I think

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Speaker 9: perhaps is what's most striking here is that he doesn't

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Speaker 9: say anything has materially changed with regards to Africa. It's

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Speaker 9: more that recent crisis are making clear what he's known

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Speaker 9: for a long time. Yes, there are risks associated with

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Speaker 9: African markets, but are those risks necessarily significantly worse than

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Speaker 9: what's faced by investors in other parts of the world,

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Speaker 9: And so that risk premium that we're talking about that

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Speaker 9: is associated with Africa might not be justified.

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Speaker 2: We're talking in generalities about a massive and very diverse consonant.

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Speaker 2: He we're talked to us about some specific opportunities that

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Speaker 2: Zain is seeing.

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Speaker 9: Well, he says, it's really all about the human capital

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Speaker 9: element here. Of course, Africa is a continent that does

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Speaker 9: boast one of the youngest populations in the world. The

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Speaker 9: average age is just getting younger, forecasts to get younger

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Speaker 9: over the coming years. But he's really called out markets

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Speaker 9: like Nigeria. He says investors can't ignore or shouldn't ignore,

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Speaker 9: because of its size.

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Speaker 7: We actually had a great piece.

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Speaker 9: About this on the terminal this week, talking about where

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Speaker 9: one should invest one hundred million nira. Looking at Nigeria's performance,

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Speaker 9: this year's Benchmark Stocks Gauge training at a record The

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Speaker 9: index is up thirty five percent in dollar terms this year.

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Speaker 9: That's actually the best performer globally after Ghana. Another African market,

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Speaker 9: So in terms of sector is he does point to

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Speaker 9: tech focused startups and SMEs, with a particular focus on fintech.

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Speaker 9: Often leg Or Sister's aggribed as the Silicon Valley of Africa,

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Speaker 9: so some opportunities there, But he is keen that we

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Speaker 9: don't just follow models of growth and development based on

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Speaker 9: other recently emerging markets. So we shouldn't just be backing

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Speaker 9: sectors like manufacturing, for example, because that's what's been popular elsewhere.

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Speaker 9: What he was really keen on is that Africa needs

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Speaker 9: its own specific model of grace. So definitely want to

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Speaker 9: watch going forward.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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Speaker 2: stories making news from London to Wall Street and beyond.

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app, and Bloomberg dot Com.

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Speaker 11: I'm Caroline Hipka and.

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Speaker 2: I'm Stephen Carroll. Join us again tomorrow morning for all

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