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Speaker 1: JJ, have you had any serious conversations with your kids

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Speaker 1: of late.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 3: You know, my daughter is getting to the age where

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Speaker 3: there's you know, some friends stuff she's got to deal with,

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Speaker 3: as we all did in elementary school, and you know,

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Speaker 3: sitting down talking to her about that, how about you?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, last week was one of those situations where I

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Speaker 1: had to sit my son down and deliver some really

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Speaker 1: difficult news. They were learning about the solar system in

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Speaker 1: TK and I had to regretfully inform him that Pluto

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Speaker 1: is no longer a planet.

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Speaker 3: I'm JJ, and over the last couple of years, I've

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Speaker 3: been doing everything I can to be a best ball bro.

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Speaker 3: And last season things finally fell into place. I got

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Speaker 3: fortieth in the DraftKings MILLI Contest, taking home twenty thousand dollars.

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Speaker 3: Maybe I became a best ball bro, but I'm still

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Speaker 3: looking to learn more about this game and I still

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Speaker 3: want others to come on this ride with me. So

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Speaker 3: even if you consider me a best ball bro, this

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Speaker 3: could be your year. This could be the year that

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Speaker 3: you officially become a best ball Bro. This episode is

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Speaker 3: sponsored by DraftKings. We partnered up with DraftKings again this

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Speaker 3: year for Best Ball and We've got to can't miss

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Speaker 3: your team once, no weekly lineup management, and your top

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Speaker 3: scorers start automatically each week all season long. Download the

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Speaker 3: DraftKings Daily Fantasy app and sign up with promo code

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Speaker 3: Late Round. Enter a lineup in the twenty million dollars

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Speaker 3: Best Ball Contest for twenty five dollars and get a

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Speaker 3: bonus ticket for a second entry two shots at the title.

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Speaker 3: Draft one get one only on DraftKings.

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Speaker 2: The crown is yours.

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Speaker 3: Welcome into another episode of becoming a best ball bro.

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Speaker 3: I'm jj Zachares and joined as always by Rich Ryan Rich.

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Speaker 3: The Knicks are down two to one, but how are

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Speaker 3: you feeling?

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Speaker 2: Or?

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Speaker 3: Sorry? Up to one? Sorry, but it feels like it.

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Speaker 3: It feels as a life Knicks fan. As a lifelong

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Speaker 3: Knicks fan who experienced a Knicks victory in New York

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Speaker 3: City last weekend, I look it was it was an

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Speaker 3: honest mistake.

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Speaker 1: There vibes were off last night at the stadium. Games

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Speaker 1: seemed like it was out of control. And this is

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Speaker 1: one of those where Game four now is if if

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Speaker 1: you go up two oh and then you lose to

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Speaker 1: at home, Like the vibes are are all the way

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Speaker 1: and the dumpster. So we're hanging on tight. We're we're

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Speaker 1: used to being faced with the worst situations possible as

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Speaker 1: New York sports fans, the non Yankee New York sports

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Speaker 1: fans amongst us, So we're prepared for the worst. Unfortunately.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's it's uh, it would be it

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Speaker 3: would be crazy, but I mean they kept it close.

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Speaker 3: It was It wasn't like a blowout last night. You know.

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Speaker 1: That's a scary thing on both ends, is that the

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Speaker 1: first two games are close and we edged it out.

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Speaker 1: Every game has been close, so the neutral is very

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Speaker 1: much enjoying this final so far.

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Speaker 3: Yes, but look, this is not a basketball podcast. This

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Speaker 3: is a football podcast. I'm back for my trip with

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Speaker 3: the guys over the weekend in New York City. We

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Speaker 3: went to basically every every bureau. We were all over

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Speaker 3: the map on that trip. I was just telling Rich

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Speaker 3: about it before we started recording. But it's good to

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Speaker 3: be back. It's good to not have to take the subway.

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Speaker 3: It's good to be able to you know, relax a

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Speaker 3: little bit, lay out in my suburban home and you know,

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Speaker 3: not have to deal with the chaos of the millions

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Speaker 3: and millions of people that are around that city. Shout

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Speaker 3: out to New York City. Though I had a great time.

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Speaker 3: Let's talk about Best Ball, Let's talk about fantasy football.

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Speaker 3: I fortunately had all my SLOs done before my trip.

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Speaker 3: I had like sixty slows going at the time. Now

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Speaker 3: I'm back in it doing some slows hopping in some millies.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna be doing some live streams on the YouTube

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Speaker 3: channel starting this week and all summer long. But I

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Speaker 3: do want to talk about some watchouts, you know, like

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Speaker 3: this intro part. We have a guest on today's show.

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Speaker 3: If you guys are new to becoming a Best Ball bro,

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Speaker 3: we do a little bit of an intro. We just

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Speaker 3: kind of talk about what we're seeing within the Best

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Speaker 3: Ball landscape at the moment. And I came up with

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Speaker 3: four things that I want to talk about as like

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Speaker 3: callouts watchouts of what I'm seeing at the moment. And

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Speaker 3: I'm curious if others agree or disagree. But the first

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Speaker 3: one I want to say, I was thinking about this

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Speaker 3: last night because I have not drafted a ton of

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Speaker 3: zero RB teams so far this year like a ton,

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Speaker 3: you know, like at least compared to what we were

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Speaker 3: doing a couple of years ago. Right as I was

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Speaker 3: drafting a MILLI team yesterday, I took Jamar Chase one

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Speaker 3: oh three, and then I'm like, oh, maybe this will

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Speaker 3: be a zero RB team. And then Derrick Henry just

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Speaker 3: was there for me in the second round. So I

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Speaker 3: got Dereck Henry. But one thing I was thinking of

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Speaker 3: is that when you kind of set and you and

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Speaker 3: you go towards a zero RB bill, let's say that

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Speaker 3: you get you know, let's say Drake London falls in

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Speaker 3: the second after you get Jackson Smith and Jigbu or something,

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Speaker 3: and then you get Drake London and then Nico Collins

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Speaker 3: falls in the third, and then you know you're in

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Speaker 3: that pocket of really good wide receivers in the fourth

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Speaker 3: and you want to get another wide receiver in that case.

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Speaker 3: One thing that I think is really important is to

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Speaker 3: make sure you get like a Lamar Jackson type quarterback.

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Speaker 3: And the reason I say that is because if you're

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Speaker 3: going wide receiver heavy, you obviously are gonna need to

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Speaker 3: get probably seven running backs or so. If you do

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Speaker 3: not get the running back position, in the first five

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Speaker 3: rounds or four rounds, you know, you're gonna probably want

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Speaker 3: to get seven running backs in your team, and you're

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Speaker 3: going to be looking at that like round eight to

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Speaker 3: round ten intill eleven range for some of those. But

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Speaker 3: you know, the Kenny Gainwells of the world, and if

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Speaker 3: you're doing that, and if you're really pinpoint, you need

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Speaker 3: the flexibility to not feel forced to go quarterback, because

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Speaker 3: that is the quarterback green zone in best ball right now,

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Speaker 3: you know, like, I think that things are gonna look

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Speaker 3: a lot different in season long, and honestly, the way

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Speaker 3: this is kind of a tangent, but the way that

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Speaker 3: people are talking about season, like like fantasy football for

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Speaker 3: twenty twenty six feels a little bit off right now

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Speaker 3: because everyone's like, oh, running backs are being drafted so

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Speaker 3: much earlier this year than last year. But if you

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Speaker 3: actually look at season long ADP year over year, you know,

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Speaker 3: even looking back, you know, over the last ten years

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Speaker 3: and just seeing the trends, it's not that different. Like

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Speaker 3: it's really not that substantially different. I would argue even

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Speaker 3: on draftings. I haven't really laid it out, but I

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Speaker 3: don't think it's like so drastically different that all of

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Speaker 3: a sudden, you know, everyone is going with early round

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Speaker 3: running backuppro and early round running back approach. I think

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Speaker 3: we started to see it a little bit last year

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Speaker 3: because twenty twenty four was a pretty good year for

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Speaker 3: that the position in the way that that things kind

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Speaker 3: of came together, and then people were reacting to it

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Speaker 3: last year, and then last year the running back position

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Speaker 3: was also good, and so people are going to continue

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Speaker 3: doing that. There's a lot of reasons for that. But regardless,

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Speaker 3: if you're not getting those running backs early, I do

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Speaker 3: think it's pretty vital to get a quarterback of some

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Speaker 3: sort early because you're gonna get stuck in that run

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Speaker 3: of quarterbacks where you're gonna wish you had one because

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Speaker 3: the position just drives up so fast and you're going

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Speaker 3: to be looking at running backs in that range.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the running backs that you're talking about there with Manungui,

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Speaker 1: Blake Korum, Kenny Gain, Will Brooks, and Dobbins in that

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Speaker 1: area are also nine quarterbacks from the eight to nine

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Speaker 1: turn down. So yeah, if you're planning your stacks, or

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Speaker 1: if you haven't selected a quarterback already and you're also

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Speaker 1: trying to balance that zero RB approach, You're gonna have

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Speaker 1: a hard time fulfilling everything and being satisfied with your roster.

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Speaker 3: That's why I think it's like that. That's another piece

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Speaker 3: of zero RB that I think is a little bit

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Speaker 3: more difficult this year. That's not necessarily being talked about.

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Speaker 3: It's just like the way the board falls doesn't necessarily

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Speaker 3: allow you to do that very confidently, just because of

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Speaker 3: quarterback in particular, Like literally because if the later round quarterbacks,

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Speaker 3: like we've been talking about for last year and a half,

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Speaker 3: if they keep getting pushed up, then obviously you know

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Speaker 3: those players are like it dries up a lot, a

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Speaker 3: lot faster, and if you are drafting running backs in

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Speaker 3: that range and that can that can definitely screw you.

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Speaker 3: I have a second thing I want to bring on.

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Speaker 3: I have four things here, kind of three, we'll call

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Speaker 3: it three and a half. But number two. We're seeing

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Speaker 3: these like ambiguous injuries going on right now. Let's just

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Speaker 3: use Chris Rodriguez as the example, where he has his

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Speaker 3: foot issue that's been happening and now there's reports that

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Speaker 3: he's not going to be practicing or like doing work

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Speaker 3: on his foot until training camp or they're like expecting

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Speaker 3: him back training camp timeframe. The effect I've noticed anecdotally

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Speaker 3: is that I don't think that drafters always look at

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Speaker 3: that beyond that one player. So like, of course Chris

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Speaker 3: Rodriguez is ADP is likely dropping as a result of

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Speaker 3: all of this. But the interesting thing is that, yes,

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Speaker 3: you'll see maybe a little bit of base shall Tuton,

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Speaker 3: but like I haven't seen an instant at all where

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Speaker 3: Leaquinn Allen is seeing a dramatic increase in ADP. Now,

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Speaker 3: a lot of people sit there and say that la

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Speaker 3: Quinn Allen is not the same kind of running back

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Speaker 3: as Chris Rodriguez is, which I would completely agree. They

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Speaker 3: played two completely different roles on that team. However, However,

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Speaker 3: it's different in bestball than in season long. I think

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Speaker 3: this is where one of those differences lies, where in

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Speaker 3: bestball you do kind of just want, especially draft kings

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Speaker 3: where it's full PPR. I draft Laquinn Allen because I

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Speaker 3: think that he can have some usable weeks here and

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Speaker 3: there as a pass catcher in a full PPR format.

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Speaker 3: You know, it's the same argument that we had left

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Speaker 3: like Justice Hill historically, Like you can even make the

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Speaker 3: argument for Justice Hill this year, but with Laquinn Allen.

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Speaker 3: If we were playing season long and Chris Rodriguez were

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Speaker 3: to get hurt, the waiver wires slash recommendation stuff would

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Speaker 3: be like, I mean, not that basejall Tuot would be

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Speaker 3: on the waiver wire, but like analysts would be sitting

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Speaker 3: there saying, hey, Basehall Tuton RB one season. You know,

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Speaker 3: all the they'd meme it up and whatever, and I'd

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Speaker 3: be all for it because I'm a Baseheall Tuton guy.

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Speaker 3: But the thing that we wouldn't really care about that

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Speaker 3: much is probably la Quinn Allen in that case in

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Speaker 3: the season long league, because la Quinn Allen would be

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Speaker 3: playing a very similar role that he would be playing otherwise,

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Speaker 3: which is that like pass catcher or you know we're

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Speaker 3: projecting here, but like that pass catcher role, what have you.

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Speaker 3: There would be, though a slight uptick in his overall

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Speaker 3: volume in that offense if Chris Rodriguez were to be out,

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Speaker 3: because they don't really have an RB three to rely

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Speaker 3: on at this moment, you know, they would maybe bring

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Speaker 3: someone up from the practice squad, or maybe they'd sign

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Speaker 3: someone if it was long term, whatever the case may be.

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Speaker 3: But la Quinn Allen would probably see like a ten

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Speaker 3: percent uptick, a like ten percentage point uptick in early

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Speaker 3: down work, let's say, or you know, rush share. And

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Speaker 3: so if that's the case, we don't care about that

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Speaker 3: in season long because he goes from someone who's really

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Speaker 3: a volatile player that we don't know when that's going

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Speaker 3: to hit, to all of a sudden being maybe a

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Speaker 3: little bit less volatile but still pretty valuable. Right, But

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Speaker 3: in best ball that that could give you a little

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Speaker 3: bit more of an edge because you're not having to

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Speaker 3: predict that.

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Speaker 4: Right.

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Speaker 3: The reason we wouldn't want to go after a Laquinn

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Speaker 3: Allen that in season long is because we're not going

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Speaker 3: to predict when that big game happens. But in bestball,

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Speaker 3: we don't have to worry about that. So my overall

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Speaker 3: stance here, and like the reason I'm bringing this up

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Speaker 3: is that if there is an ambiguous injury going on

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Speaker 3: and there hasn't been that much of like a chain

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Speaker 3: reaction to that injury with the other players in that

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Speaker 3: backfield or in that wide receiver room, whatever the case

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Speaker 3: may be, backfield is a lot easier to make that

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Speaker 3: tie because you know they're just given work as opposed

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Speaker 3: to wide receivers, tit ands having to get open and

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Speaker 3: get a target, et cetera, et cetera. I think that's

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Speaker 3: an opportunity to get CLV, even if it's not even CLV.

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Speaker 3: Even it's just value in general that you get because

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Speaker 3: maybe his ADP doesn't rise or change, but eventually, you know,

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Speaker 3: if Chris Rodriguez is like confirmed out through August or something,

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Speaker 3: la Quinn Allen would probably have like a seventeenth round

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Speaker 3: ADP or something like, he would be higher than a

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Speaker 3: last round sometimes not even drafted type pick.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he hasn't budged at all, whereas Chris Rodriguez has

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Speaker 1: dropped half around down five spots. And you're right, the

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Speaker 1: difference with best ball is we get the luxury of

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Speaker 1: enjoying smoothed out projectable volume over the season as opposed

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Speaker 1: to hoping this is the week in Quinn Allen, that's action.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. And then the last the last thing I want

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Speaker 3: to point out, and this kind of goes hand in hand,

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Speaker 3: but if there are free agents out there who have

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Speaker 3: a backbone of being productive and good and like not

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Speaker 3: you know, not on the tail end of their career

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Speaker 3: or anything like that. We had Keenan Allen. Last year,

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Speaker 3: we saw his ADP rise by a few rounds after

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Speaker 3: he signed with the Chargers, which a lot of people

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Speaker 3: didn't even think was a good landing spot for him.

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Speaker 3: You know, like right now we're staring at Stefan Diggs

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Speaker 3: and he is a firm, firm double digit round pick.

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Speaker 3: I'm talking like twelve thirteenth round type player on draftings.

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Speaker 3: And if he signs almost anywhere, it's it's the odds

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Speaker 3: of him signing for like a semi contender are pretty high,

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Speaker 3: probably you know, like a Washington or a Kansas City

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Speaker 3: or something like that. And if that's the case, his

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Speaker 3: ADP is going to rise by like two rounds at

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Speaker 3: least more than likely, similar to what we saw with

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Speaker 3: Keenan Allen, and then analysts talk themselves into that player

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Speaker 3: more and more because they realized there was a reason

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Speaker 3: that that team went out and got that player, and

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Speaker 3: so you can get that that's a pure CLV play

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Speaker 3: like you can right now with Stephan Diggs. I do

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Speaker 3: believe firmly, and it's not going to work out one

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Speaker 3: hundred percent of the time, but I do believe firmly

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Speaker 3: that Stephan Diggs is someone that people should be targeting

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Speaker 3: and drafting more frequently than they probably are, just because

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Speaker 3: we're going to see that uptick. Now, if this were

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Speaker 3: August and he wasn't on a team or we didn't,

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Speaker 3: it's not as big of a deal. I think it's

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Speaker 3: a bigger deal right now in a milli contest where

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Speaker 3: you know we're drafting in May and June and the

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Speaker 3: same contest is still opened in August, where people are

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Speaker 3: going to be drafting, and by the time August hit,

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Speaker 3: Stephan Diggs could be a ninth round pick.

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Speaker 1: That's a really good distinction, right This is one of

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Speaker 1: those short contests that is going to fill quickly. The

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Speaker 1: difference is is we're looking to target these longer contests

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Speaker 1: with longer draft windows, because you're right, there isn't a

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Speaker 1: single player with an FA tag on them in DraftKings

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Speaker 1: that is going before Stephan Diggs in the twelfth round

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Speaker 1: and you've got Tyreek Hill dropping half around.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, there's just value to be had here.

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Speaker 3: You could even argue Brandon Ayuk right now, which is crazy,

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Speaker 3: but I I think Ayuk is a little bit different

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Speaker 3: for obvious reasons. So you know, you don't have to

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Speaker 3: go him if you don't really like putting that into

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Speaker 3: your portfolio. I personally don't mind doing that, like I've

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Speaker 3: been I've been drafting Ayuk because you know, like even

300
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Speaker 3: if he's not one hundred percent there for part, I

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Speaker 3: don't know. I just I think that there's just you're

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Speaker 3: just playing expected value and probability at that point, like like,

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Speaker 3: what are the odds that he does not play at

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Speaker 3: all this year? Maybe you feel that it's like eighty percent.

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Speaker 3: I think it's more fifty to fifty at worst. You

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Speaker 3: know that that he isn't playing this year, just because

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Speaker 3: you know, like he's he's still talented. And I saw

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Speaker 3: a pretty good take about this with Ayuk and the

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Speaker 3: forty nine ers, like if there were real problems with

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Speaker 3: his game, the forty nine ers would have just released him,

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Speaker 3: you know, they would have like it would be a

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Speaker 3: done deal at this point, like he wouldn't be, you know,

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Speaker 3: being being hung on by the four I used to

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Speaker 3: get some sort of trade value. You know, I don't know,

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Speaker 3: there's a lot to it. Don't hold me to that take.

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Speaker 3: I just think that it's an interesting way of sort

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Speaker 3: of thinking about it and you know, analyzing that situation.

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Speaker 1: But also this is the distinction that you just made

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Speaker 1: about the difference between receivers and running backs, where receivers

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Speaker 1: earn their usage through talent for most of the part,

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Speaker 1: whereas running backs the coach kind of decides who gets usage.

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Speaker 4: And we're talking about some talented dudes.

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Speaker 1: No matter what you think of Diggs, Tyreek and Ayuk,

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Speaker 1: they're talented guys. So if they land in a spot,

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Speaker 1: they're not going to be stuck with a coach's decision

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Speaker 1: as to whether or not they get usage.

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Speaker 4: They're going to be running routes and likely earning targets.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean in this bucket, which is why I

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Speaker 3: said three and a half. We've now learned officially through

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Speaker 3: this AJ Brown ordeal, but also we saw last year.

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Speaker 3: I remember with Jordan Addison where we knew something was

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Speaker 3: going to happen from a suspension standpoint, and yet, like

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Speaker 3: I remember, I wasn't drafting him until that suspension was

334
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Speaker 3: handed out because I knew his ADP would fall, and

335
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Speaker 3: it did like it fell by about an after that happened.

336
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Speaker 3: AJ Brown, I will say I was not aggressive enough

337
00:16:05,640 --> 00:16:08,560
Speaker 3: in getting him before the news to New England because

338
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Speaker 3: I thought that where he was being drafted was a

339
00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:13,880
Speaker 3: fair enough, reasonable enough ADP based on you know, the

340
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Speaker 3: the age curve, the trajectory of his career, like what

341
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:19,920
Speaker 3: happened last year, all while recognizing that he really wasn't

342
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Speaker 3: that bad last year. You know, it was probably overstated

343
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Speaker 3: of him like being total dust. But I'm like, yeah,

344
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Speaker 3: I mean, like there's some good players being drafted around him.

345
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Speaker 3: I can understand why his ADP is where it's at,

346
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Speaker 3: assuming that everyone knows that he's going to New England. Well, no,

347
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,840
Speaker 3: that's this is also probably a segue into into the

348
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Speaker 3: ADP stuff because AJ Brown is seeing his his ADP

349
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Speaker 3: increase and it has seen that over the last week

350
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Speaker 3: or two.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so I like to take a snapshot of the

352
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Speaker 1: week over week ADP risers and fallers, and AJ Brown

353
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Speaker 1: is one of the top seven risers up a half

354
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Speaker 1: around now at pick nineteen.

355
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Speaker 3: And that's early rounds too, to be fair, And you.

356
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Speaker 1: Know, like that's that was the point I was going

357
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Speaker 1: to bring up, especially in the faller section. There's a

358
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Speaker 1: lot of double digits here, Like some of these value

359
00:17:04,960 --> 00:17:08,840
Speaker 1: changes are very small right now. Right there hasn't been

360
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Speaker 1: massive news, massive injuries. There's not a lot of shifts,

361
00:17:12,480 --> 00:17:15,479
Speaker 1: so to see that in the second round, right up

362
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Speaker 1: from the third round to the second that is it

363
00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:19,640
Speaker 1: is it's hard to overstate how large of a move

364
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Speaker 1: that does.

365
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Speaker 3: I think part of the AJ Brown stuff too, is

366
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Speaker 3: obviously Rashie Rice Molik neighbors, Josh Jacobs like players that

367
00:17:27,760 --> 00:17:30,919
Speaker 3: have had these like off the field type stuff going on,

368
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:34,240
Speaker 3: slash injury stuff going on, and so naturally it's like, oh,

369
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Speaker 3: this is a J Brown's actually more stable piece than

370
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Speaker 3: those players are, so therefore I'll draft him. I just

371
00:17:39,760 --> 00:17:42,880
Speaker 3: can't get behind drafting him over Drake London, which I've

372
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Speaker 3: seen multiple times. Like I'm just I'm not quite there.

373
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Speaker 3: I'm not even lower than AJ Brown versus like ADP.

374
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Speaker 3: It's just I'm not going to be higher on AJ

375
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Speaker 3: Brown if if that's what being higher means, you know,

376
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Speaker 3: than ADP.

377
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Speaker 1: The three receivers that have moved more than AJ Brown

378
00:18:00,080 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 1: positive direction, they all kind of fell fit the same archetype,

379
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:06,239
Speaker 1: Ady Mitchell, Trey Harris, and Dontavian Wicks. Guys who can

380
00:18:06,280 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 1: stretch the field, guys who can get downfield, and the

381
00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:10,959
Speaker 1: market seems to be latching on of them right now.

382
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Speaker 3: JT. Yeah, I've been drafting a ton of Ady Mitchell

383
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:17,359
Speaker 3: all off season. I was never look I wasn't an

384
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,399
Speaker 3: ad Mitchell guy when he came out. I think that

385
00:18:20,440 --> 00:18:23,000
Speaker 3: he's kind of even exceeded my expectations in a way,

386
00:18:23,080 --> 00:18:25,400
Speaker 3: even though it sounds backwards because he was traded and

387
00:18:25,800 --> 00:18:28,560
Speaker 3: you know, but he's been very good per route run

388
00:18:29,040 --> 00:18:31,159
Speaker 3: and I think there's a very real chance when you

389
00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:35,440
Speaker 3: look at what the Jets have at wide receiver in particular,

390
00:18:35,920 --> 00:18:38,440
Speaker 3: Garret Wilson can play everywhere, but I think Garat Wilson

391
00:18:39,160 --> 00:18:42,200
Speaker 3: realistically could probably thrive most in like a Z role

392
00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,160
Speaker 3: on that in that offense right or in any offense.

393
00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:49,040
Speaker 3: But he can play X like he's he's he's extremely talented.

394
00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:51,320
Speaker 3: But ad Ni Mitchell is an X receiver like that

395
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Speaker 3: is what he like, that's where he should be playing.

396
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Speaker 3: And Omar Cooper is very much more than likely like

397
00:18:57,600 --> 00:19:00,600
Speaker 3: slot can probably play perimeter enough. But like if you

398
00:19:00,640 --> 00:19:02,880
Speaker 3: look at those three guys, I think that that's kind

399
00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,560
Speaker 3: of the role that they would be playing, and Adie Mitchell,

400
00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:08,960
Speaker 3: if that's the case, would have a role in that offense.

401
00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,280
Speaker 3: And then there I think there were some reports this

402
00:19:11,320 --> 00:19:13,840
Speaker 3: week that that were favorable for Mitchell, that like they

403
00:19:13,880 --> 00:19:16,520
Speaker 3: see him as like a featured piece in the offense

404
00:19:16,600 --> 00:19:18,080
Speaker 3: or what have you. I think it's just one of

405
00:19:18,080 --> 00:19:21,159
Speaker 3: those classic cases of like assuming a player is just

406
00:19:21,240 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 3: bounced completely from an offense because they drafted an earlier

407
00:19:24,320 --> 00:19:27,520
Speaker 3: round wide receiver. But I think Omar Cooper was a

408
00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 3: good prospect. I don't think you know, close your ears, Rich,

409
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 3: I don't think he was like a phenomenal prospect, right,

410
00:19:33,680 --> 00:19:36,880
Speaker 3: very interesting profile, but more of like the like there

411
00:19:36,960 --> 00:19:40,040
Speaker 3: is an out here where like part of Omar Cooper's

412
00:19:40,080 --> 00:19:42,600
Speaker 3: game in the NFL is more gadgety than it is

413
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,720
Speaker 3: pure traditional wide receiver. Not to say that's what it

414
00:19:45,800 --> 00:19:48,479
Speaker 3: all would be, but I think that's why Adie Mitchell's

415
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 3: kind of attractive. Like I've been drafting Adie Mitchell, Trey

416
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:53,000
Speaker 3: Harris being listed on there makes a ton of sense

417
00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 3: to me, because you know they're gonna run a lot

418
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,600
Speaker 3: of these like they're gonna run a lot less eleven

419
00:19:57,640 --> 00:20:00,800
Speaker 3: personnel with Mike McDaniel, and obviously that means a lot

420
00:20:00,840 --> 00:20:02,399
Speaker 3: of Maconukeey, in my opinion, is going to see a

421
00:20:02,440 --> 00:20:05,399
Speaker 3: higher concentration of targets just because he'll be the lone

422
00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,920
Speaker 3: wide receiver on the field at times or one of two,

423
00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:10,400
Speaker 3: and I think Quentin Johnson should be the number two,

424
00:20:10,680 --> 00:20:13,800
Speaker 3: like like in your priority list. But Trey Harris some

425
00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:17,000
Speaker 3: positive vibes and buzz, but what if he takes a

426
00:20:17,000 --> 00:20:19,639
Speaker 3: step forward. It's not like Quentin Johnson's been undeniable throughout

427
00:20:19,640 --> 00:20:21,680
Speaker 3: his career, you know. So Trey Harris is a great

428
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:23,280
Speaker 3: late round pick. Been doing that a lot. Part of

429
00:20:23,280 --> 00:20:25,720
Speaker 3: it too, is because I've been just drafting the Chargers

430
00:20:25,720 --> 00:20:28,760
Speaker 3: and then Dantavian Wicks. You know, that's that's fine. It's

431
00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:31,159
Speaker 3: a little interesting. He's risen a little bit, but it's

432
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Speaker 3: mostly I think a little bit of noise just because

433
00:20:34,160 --> 00:20:35,600
Speaker 3: he's going so late to begin with.

434
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:39,200
Speaker 1: And of course again people waiting until the official drop

435
00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:40,119
Speaker 1: of these.

436
00:20:40,320 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 3: I mean that's crazy, right, Like it's crazy. It's crazy.

437
00:20:44,200 --> 00:20:46,600
Speaker 3: I just didn't think, like because you looked at Dontavian

438
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:50,480
Speaker 3: Wicks before and you're like, no one likes Dontavian Wicks,

439
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:53,919
Speaker 3: why would his ADP change? And then yeah, it's changed

440
00:20:53,960 --> 00:20:57,760
Speaker 3: post aj Brown leaving. And I was drafting Wix to

441
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:01,000
Speaker 3: be honest with you before more so like pre draft

442
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 3: and obviously they get Lemon and Stowers and stuff. But

443
00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:05,240
Speaker 3: I think Wix is another one of those players, where

444
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,080
Speaker 3: not not to the same degree as ad Mitchell, because

445
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,680
Speaker 3: I think Lemon is better than Cooper and I think

446
00:21:10,760 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 3: adi Mitchell is better than Wix. Right, So it's like

447
00:21:13,160 --> 00:21:15,199
Speaker 3: a it's not a one to one at all, but

448
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:17,000
Speaker 3: it is a one to one from the standpoint of

449
00:21:17,400 --> 00:21:20,159
Speaker 3: there is a new rookie wide receiver stepping in, and

450
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,480
Speaker 3: there's a more established, if you will, at least you know,

451
00:21:23,600 --> 00:21:27,359
Speaker 3: non rookie that was already there. And let's not assume

452
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,160
Speaker 3: that the non rookie is just completely dust.

453
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,000
Speaker 1: Three other players up a half round. Two of them

454
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:39,120
Speaker 1: mentioned last week JJ Moving Markets. It's Greg Dulcich, Alvin Kamara,

455
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:40,000
Speaker 1: and Sean Tucker.

456
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:42,920
Speaker 3: Yeah we're not gonna We're not gonna run with that one.

457
00:21:43,000 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 3: But yeah, look, Dulcich I think, I mean Dulcich also

458
00:21:46,560 --> 00:21:49,400
Speaker 3: got some good vibes after our show, not not from

459
00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 3: not anything that I said, but like there were there

460
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,119
Speaker 3: was the report I think omar Kelly had it, where

461
00:21:54,640 --> 00:21:56,520
Speaker 3: so take it with a grain of salt, but omar

462
00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:00,280
Speaker 3: Kelly had it and said that he was he looked

463
00:22:00,359 --> 00:22:03,640
Speaker 3: like Malik Willis's favorite target at one point and then

464
00:22:03,680 --> 00:22:06,439
Speaker 3: you know, Sean Tucker, it could just be a Bucky

465
00:22:06,440 --> 00:22:08,840
Speaker 3: Irving related thing too. You know that there's just been

466
00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,080
Speaker 3: negative vibes around that. And then Alvin Kamara was is

467
00:22:12,840 --> 00:22:14,679
Speaker 3: Kamara is kind of interesting because a lot of it

468
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:17,400
Speaker 3: is I guess it's like the people thinking that he's

469
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 3: not going to retire now instead of retiring or something

470
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,720
Speaker 3: based on the fact that he's like in shape and

471
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:23,679
Speaker 3: he might be playing for the Saints or whatever the

472
00:22:23,680 --> 00:22:26,320
Speaker 3: case may be. But yeah, I mean, like I can

473
00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:28,800
Speaker 3: understand that. I still think Kamara is a trade candidate.

474
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 3: I think that there's a possibility that maybe like Jacksonville

475
00:22:32,280 --> 00:22:35,040
Speaker 3: goes after him with the uh with the Chris Rodriguez stuff.

476
00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,679
Speaker 1: I feel like everybody is very bullish on the New

477
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:39,600
Speaker 1: Orleans Saints.

478
00:22:40,119 --> 00:22:41,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, well what could go wrong?

479
00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 5: Man?

480
00:22:43,280 --> 00:22:46,919
Speaker 3: I mean, I'm bullish. I'm excited about I love drafting

481
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:49,119
Speaker 3: Tyler Schuck and Jordan Tyson and you know, I'm not

482
00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:50,760
Speaker 3: as into a lave, but I get it. Like, I

483
00:22:51,440 --> 00:22:55,080
Speaker 3: think it's a very concentrated target tree and that's part

484
00:22:55,080 --> 00:22:57,200
Speaker 3: of the allure for me. I haven't drafted much ETN

485
00:22:57,200 --> 00:22:59,080
Speaker 3: I will say that, but the I do think that

486
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,159
Speaker 3: it's a constant t rated tree and therefore it's a

487
00:23:03,160 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 3: fast paced offense, and it's a year two quarterback, and

488
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 3: so I get the allure, and I'm I've definitely fallen

489
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:09,360
Speaker 3: victim of that a little bit.

490
00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,400
Speaker 4: Thank you for calling him ETN. By the way, I'm

491
00:23:11,440 --> 00:23:13,800
Speaker 4: not changing. Nobody's gonna make hard change.

492
00:23:14,440 --> 00:23:15,119
Speaker 2: It's too hard.

493
00:23:15,600 --> 00:23:18,040
Speaker 3: Honestly. I was having a discussion with my buddies this

494
00:23:18,080 --> 00:23:21,200
Speaker 3: weekend and I'm like, yeah, I can't do the Travis

495
00:23:21,440 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 3: Chan thing on shows because they're just going to confuse everybody,

496
00:23:24,040 --> 00:23:26,600
Speaker 3: and I'm just going to be answering questions, you know,

497
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,919
Speaker 3: after the show's published. So I just am keeping ETN

498
00:23:29,960 --> 00:23:33,480
Speaker 3: for the time being until it's more overall generally accepted.

499
00:23:33,720 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 1: ADP followers, a pair of Packers running backs, and Chris

500
00:23:37,160 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: Brooks and Marshawn law Lloyd. Everybody ran to the draft

501
00:23:40,640 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 1: room thinking that Josh Sjacobs was going to be barred

502
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:46,119
Speaker 1: from football because of his off field activities. But like

503
00:23:46,119 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 1: we've seen previously, Rashie Rice, et cetera, Jordan Addison, these things,

504
00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:52,200
Speaker 1: the can tends to get kicked down.

505
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,080
Speaker 4: The road with these things JJ. So I think those

506
00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:55,520
Speaker 4: overreactions weren't warranted.

507
00:23:55,920 --> 00:23:57,960
Speaker 3: The only thing is that he could still get arrested,

508
00:23:58,080 --> 00:24:00,320
Speaker 3: Like he could still like go to jail for these

509
00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:02,920
Speaker 3: things seemingly. I mean, I don't know exactly. I mean,

510
00:24:02,920 --> 00:24:05,679
Speaker 3: I basically I still think it's a volatile situation. But

511
00:24:05,920 --> 00:24:10,199
Speaker 3: obviously the regular standard drafter is just saying, you know,

512
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:12,080
Speaker 3: he's not in jail right now, so we don't have

513
00:24:12,119 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 3: to draft his backups.

514
00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:17,680
Speaker 1: And then at receiver, people didn't listen to us last week.

515
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,280
Speaker 1: We keep talking about Brandon Ayuk and Kishan Boody. People

516
00:24:21,280 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 1: are afraid of these guys that, in Booty's case, is

517
00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:27,399
Speaker 1: kind of stuck down in the depth chart in New England,

518
00:24:27,400 --> 00:24:31,000
Speaker 1: and then the ambiguity around Ayuk has got people freaked out.

519
00:24:31,359 --> 00:24:34,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm still like cool with drafting either

520
00:24:34,119 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 3: of these guys. I think there's a even if if

521
00:24:36,600 --> 00:24:39,480
Speaker 3: Kashan Boody stays in New England, he can have usable

522
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 3: weeks every once in a while because he's proven to

523
00:24:42,040 --> 00:24:44,280
Speaker 3: make big plays in the way that they deploy him, right,

524
00:24:44,320 --> 00:24:46,280
Speaker 3: and that like I don't think that he should be

525
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:49,280
Speaker 3: deployed that way, like as a player, but regardless, like

526
00:24:49,720 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 3: if they if they deploy him as like a down

527
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,040
Speaker 3: the field player. He can he can make and generate

528
00:24:54,080 --> 00:24:56,160
Speaker 3: big plays. But I still think there's an out here

529
00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,639
Speaker 3: where like Washington goes after him, and Washington can go

530
00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:01,480
Speaker 3: after Ayuk were maybe Kansas City or something. I mean

531
00:25:01,520 --> 00:25:03,479
Speaker 3: there's like there's there's places for these guys to go

532
00:25:03,520 --> 00:25:07,600
Speaker 3: where their situations would improve. I'm not as bullish on

533
00:25:07,680 --> 00:25:09,720
Speaker 3: like a Booty as I would be a Stefan Diggs

534
00:25:09,880 --> 00:25:12,160
Speaker 3: seeing his ADP rise, but I think there's a chance

535
00:25:12,160 --> 00:25:15,080
Speaker 3: that I Booty gets traded in ninety percent of spots,

536
00:25:15,119 --> 00:25:16,520
Speaker 3: he'd probably see his ADP rise.

537
00:25:16,960 --> 00:25:19,359
Speaker 1: And then one more relevant fallower Jill Milton was a

538
00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 1: full I don't know what's going on there. Excited about

539
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,720
Speaker 1: Jill Milton. But Mike Washington, junior out of Vegas, the

540
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: rookie running back who his peripherles we were very interesting.

541
00:25:30,840 --> 00:25:32,720
Speaker 4: So I was surprised to see him drop.

542
00:25:32,760 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm I might just be ignorant of

543
00:25:34,960 --> 00:25:36,679
Speaker 1: some news that came out with regards I.

544
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,240
Speaker 3: Think it's just the I think Kubiak talking about being

545
00:25:39,280 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 3: okay with like leaning on genty is what that really

546
00:25:42,680 --> 00:25:45,320
Speaker 3: comes down to. I mean, Mike Washington for me was

547
00:25:46,440 --> 00:25:49,200
Speaker 3: an if he ish prospect didn't have like the most

548
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:53,560
Speaker 3: amazing production profile wasn't terrible, clearly very very athletic, and

549
00:25:54,080 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 3: you know that forty time. Without that forty time, I

550
00:25:56,880 --> 00:25:59,120
Speaker 3: don't even know if he gets drafted, he's at least

551
00:25:59,160 --> 00:26:02,640
Speaker 3: like a late day three guy. So you know, is

552
00:26:02,760 --> 00:26:04,080
Speaker 3: his profile amazing?

553
00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 2: No?

554
00:26:04,920 --> 00:26:08,719
Speaker 3: You know, are we like really overly excited about a

555
00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:10,840
Speaker 3: backup in Vegas offense?

556
00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:11,160
Speaker 2: The way?

557
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:13,440
Speaker 3: Like, I don't know. I love what Kubiak is gonna

558
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 3: probably do to the offense, and I think he's the

559
00:26:15,960 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 3: right kind of mind and coach to for what they

560
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,360
Speaker 3: have right now personnel wise. I can kind of understand

561
00:26:22,359 --> 00:26:24,400
Speaker 3: going after Mike Washington, But if you're gonna go after

562
00:26:24,480 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 3: like pure handcuffs, I think there's plenty of others that

563
00:26:26,760 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 3: you can at least get excited about to not be

564
00:26:28,640 --> 00:26:31,080
Speaker 3: like so overweight on one random handcuff.

565
00:26:31,320 --> 00:26:33,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, for sure, I just I don't know. I'm very

566
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 4: much Kubiak build.

567
00:26:34,800 --> 00:26:37,760
Speaker 1: Like he took something called Holani and turned him into

568
00:26:37,800 --> 00:26:39,639
Speaker 1: a usable asset in the playoffs.

569
00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:41,480
Speaker 4: So I believe in Kubiak.

570
00:26:41,880 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 3: Kubiak's good. I've been a Koubiak guy for sure, even

571
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,040
Speaker 3: when he was in New Orleans, right, But yeah, I mean,

572
00:26:47,040 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 3: like I think that the offense should be much more improved,

573
00:26:49,920 --> 00:26:52,399
Speaker 3: you know, in Vegas. I think gentis a pretty solid

574
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 3: pick at the one two turn. It's just I just

575
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 3: don't know if Mike Washington is like that good. Those

576
00:26:59,000 --> 00:27:02,280
Speaker 3: are the risers and followers in ADP right now. Like

577
00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:05,680
Speaker 3: I said, I do have a guest. That guest being

578
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:09,040
Speaker 3: mister Pat Karine, who's kicked off this show as the

579
00:27:09,080 --> 00:27:12,240
Speaker 3: first guest for the first two seasons that we did.

580
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 3: He's of legendary upside. He co hosts Ship Chasing, He's

581
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,080
Speaker 3: had a ton of Best Ball success. We talk about

582
00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:23,040
Speaker 3: the changing landscape in Best Ball right now, when to

583
00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:26,320
Speaker 3: take the onesie positions quarterback and tight end late round

584
00:27:26,400 --> 00:27:28,440
Speaker 3: picks because the late rounds kind of suck and so

585
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,800
Speaker 3: much more so. Without further ado, here is my interview

586
00:27:30,840 --> 00:27:41,000
Speaker 3: with mister Pat Karine. All right, Pat, first question, as

587
00:27:41,040 --> 00:27:44,280
Speaker 3: you look at this Best Ball landscape right now, specifically

588
00:27:44,280 --> 00:27:46,760
Speaker 3: over on DraftKings, what's one of the biggest difference that

589
00:27:46,760 --> 00:27:49,120
Speaker 3: you're seeing year over year or I mean, you could

590
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:52,160
Speaker 3: be looking at this landscape and thinking that it's the same,

591
00:27:52,359 --> 00:27:54,680
Speaker 3: but what are you seeing overall, and if there is

592
00:27:54,720 --> 00:27:55,960
Speaker 3: a change year over year.

593
00:27:57,720 --> 00:28:01,200
Speaker 5: Well, one thing is, you know, this year we have

594
00:28:01,280 --> 00:28:05,200
Speaker 5: a different rookie class than last year, and there's some

595
00:28:05,240 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 5: strengths and weaknesses, mostly weaknesses compared to last year's rookie class,

596
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:13,639
Speaker 5: and I think that changes things up in some pretty

597
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 5: big ways for this year's landscape and Best Ball rookies,

598
00:28:18,000 --> 00:28:20,280
Speaker 5: you know, have been a pretty big part, especially rookie

599
00:28:20,320 --> 00:28:25,280
Speaker 5: receivers have been like a pretty big edge in Bestball

600
00:28:25,680 --> 00:28:28,120
Speaker 5: leagues over the years, and so you know, I think

601
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,199
Speaker 5: you're seeing a couple of things. One the rookie running backs.

602
00:28:31,720 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 5: There's a couple first rounders that go reasonably high, and

603
00:28:35,280 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 5: I think both guys are our interesting picks.

604
00:28:38,160 --> 00:28:40,760
Speaker 2: I like Jeremi love more at ADP.

605
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:44,280
Speaker 5: But then you get past those guys and it really

606
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,960
Speaker 5: dries up and we're talking, you know, a lot, a

607
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,840
Speaker 5: lot of Day three type of guys that here in

608
00:28:50,960 --> 00:28:53,360
Speaker 5: June are hard to know for sure if we're going

609
00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:58,400
Speaker 5: to get anything from this year, and not having interesting

610
00:28:58,600 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 5: rookie upside swings in you know, let's say, outside the

611
00:29:02,320 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 5: top six rounds definitely shakes things up a bit. And

612
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 5: then at wide receiver, I think some of the stink

613
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 5: of the rookie class from a dynasty perspective has translated

614
00:29:14,800 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 5: over to the best ball market, and I actually think

615
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 5: there's some values at rookie wide receiver this year where

616
00:29:21,240 --> 00:29:24,280
Speaker 5: they're a little bit cheaper than we've had over the

617
00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:27,239
Speaker 5: past couple of years. So those guys, to me are

618
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:31,920
Speaker 5: actually targets. A number of them are pretty clear targets

619
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,280
Speaker 5: at at cheaper prices than we've had recently, where rookie

620
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:37,680
Speaker 5: wide receivers have kind of had some inflation compared to

621
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,560
Speaker 5: where they used to go, like four or five years ago.

622
00:29:39,640 --> 00:29:42,280
Speaker 3: With this rookie class. Because I'll kind of skip ahead

623
00:29:42,280 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 3: to another question that I wanted to ask you, but

624
00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 3: I think it's pretty pertinent and kind of ties into it.

625
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,880
Speaker 3: When I'm drafting right now, I'm looking at the late

626
00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 3: rounds and I feel awful about almost every player that

627
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 3: is available in the late rounds of these drafts. My

628
00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,160
Speaker 3: question to you is, do you think that this is

629
00:29:59,240 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 3: a normal feeling that I feel every year and I've

630
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 3: forgotten and this is not any different than what we

631
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:07,000
Speaker 3: typically see, or do you think that it is a

632
00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 3: weaker late round, you know, around eighteen nineteen round twenty

633
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:14,720
Speaker 3: type group than we've historically seen. And again we have

634
00:30:14,760 --> 00:30:16,680
Speaker 3: to give this context that we're doing this in June,

635
00:30:16,760 --> 00:30:19,440
Speaker 3: where I think probably in July and August we'll have

636
00:30:19,480 --> 00:30:22,440
Speaker 3: at least some better idea of some situations and stuff

637
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:24,720
Speaker 3: like that, and you know, players and the roles that

638
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 3: they're going to play, and maybe we feel better about

639
00:30:26,600 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 3: some more later round darts. Maybe you don't even feel

640
00:30:29,240 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 3: this way at all, but do you think the rookie

641
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,600
Speaker 3: class is playing a huge role in that feeling that

642
00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 3: I'm feeling.

643
00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:37,000
Speaker 5: One hundred percent of the rookie classes factoring in there.

644
00:30:37,000 --> 00:30:40,400
Speaker 5: I mean, last year, at the end of the summer,

645
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:45,720
Speaker 5: like final weeks of drafts, Kyle Manungai started popping, as

646
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 5: you know, a pretty strong pick, and he remained available

647
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:53,680
Speaker 5: in like the eighteenth, nineteen twentieth round on DraftKings. You know,

648
00:30:53,760 --> 00:30:55,360
Speaker 5: he was a seventh round pick, so it took a

649
00:30:55,360 --> 00:30:58,840
Speaker 5: while for us to view him as as a reasonable click.

650
00:30:59,640 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 5: But I mean, it's hard for me to even see like.

651
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:05,360
Speaker 2: Who that would be because.

652
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:08,280
Speaker 5: Like k Tron Allen would would probably be a comparable

653
00:31:08,320 --> 00:31:11,760
Speaker 5: type of player. Well, Kateron Allen's already getting drafted. You know,

654
00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 5: he's not available in those rounds now, so there's just

655
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 5: not as many guys now. We were taking Jarquiz Hunter,

656
00:31:18,040 --> 00:31:20,360
Speaker 5: we were taking DJ Giddens, like, there were a bunch

657
00:31:20,360 --> 00:31:23,760
Speaker 5: of land Mines too, but it was the rookie class.

658
00:31:23,800 --> 00:31:25,760
Speaker 5: The depth of the running back class did make it

659
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 5: easier to kind of dream on these picks and then

660
00:31:28,800 --> 00:31:31,640
Speaker 5: also to ultimately find a couple of these guys who mattered,

661
00:31:32,080 --> 00:31:33,719
Speaker 5: even if it took a while to kind of realize

662
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 5: that that Manung guy was the best of the bunch

663
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:38,800
Speaker 5: in those final rounds. But yeah, I mean, I think

664
00:31:38,920 --> 00:31:43,400
Speaker 5: there's also some NFL personnel shift stuff going on here

665
00:31:43,480 --> 00:31:45,840
Speaker 5: a little bit where we are seeing like more two

666
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 5: tight end sets, more teams talking about how I mean

667
00:31:49,800 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 5: the Jaguars talking about playing more twelve.

668
00:31:52,640 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 2: It's like, come on, man, you've got.

669
00:31:56,560 --> 00:31:59,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, like Nick Borgager's I gotta worry about that.

670
00:31:59,640 --> 00:32:01,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, So it's you.

671
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:05,000
Speaker 5: You get down and you're like, what receivers can I

672
00:32:05,080 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 5: just buy routes on? I think those guys, the depth

673
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 5: of that kind of group of players also probably a

674
00:32:10,840 --> 00:32:13,360
Speaker 5: little thinner now than it was a couple of years ago.

675
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 5: And I think part of it is like, yeah, it's

676
00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 5: it isn't that fun always to you know, in the

677
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:22,600
Speaker 5: nineteenth round like that. That is not a high hit rate

678
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,400
Speaker 5: kind of group. And we probably have memory wiped some

679
00:32:25,440 --> 00:32:27,280
Speaker 5: of the disgusting picks we were making over the past

680
00:32:27,320 --> 00:32:30,240
Speaker 5: three four years. But yeah, I mean I'm taking more

681
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:34,080
Speaker 5: tight ends in those final rounds. Yeah, And I think

682
00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:37,160
Speaker 5: that's one way to kind of especially I am considering

683
00:32:37,280 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 5: on my streams just having like a rolling banner that

684
00:32:40,120 --> 00:32:41,480
Speaker 5: says it's June.

685
00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 2: Because.

686
00:32:43,920 --> 00:32:47,280
Speaker 5: Like there's there's like some like it used to be

687
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,360
Speaker 5: that like Scott Fishbowl kind of kick things off and

688
00:32:49,840 --> 00:32:52,320
Speaker 5: of the redraft, like this was Dynasty season, it was

689
00:32:52,400 --> 00:32:53,600
Speaker 5: card but we were sending trades.

690
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 2: We're not. We're not really draft.

691
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:56,240
Speaker 3: We could relax them in it.

692
00:32:56,960 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 5: Yeah, Yeah, And so that has changed. Like we're we're

693
00:33:00,800 --> 00:33:04,200
Speaker 5: talking like definitively about the structures of teams in twenty

694
00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 5: twenty six for you know, the entire offseason in the

695
00:33:08,560 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 5: early part of June, and I think things will change.

696
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 5: We're all so much more dialed in than we were

697
00:33:14,600 --> 00:33:17,959
Speaker 5: like in twenty nineteen this time of year that it

698
00:33:18,040 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 5: doesn't it's like hard to remember that how much things

699
00:33:20,560 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 5: can change and probably will change. So the late rounds

700
00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:27,720
Speaker 5: will look different as we get more information, but for now,

701
00:33:28,480 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 5: taking some of these tight ends, you know, it does

702
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 5: feel like a way where you're not just like completely

703
00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:39,680
Speaker 5: punting and taking a zero, and you're like, maybe, like

704
00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:42,960
Speaker 5: with Eli Stowers, I probably am buying routes, particularly in

705
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:44,640
Speaker 5: the at the end of the season. His ADP is

706
00:33:44,640 --> 00:33:47,120
Speaker 5: around two hundred on DraftKings, right, So it's like you

707
00:33:47,200 --> 00:33:50,800
Speaker 5: get late and I'll take that fourth tight end who's

708
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,320
Speaker 5: probably going to be running routes at the end of

709
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,120
Speaker 5: the season. I'll take a stab on one of the

710
00:33:55,200 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 5: rams tight you know committee tight end guys. They're going

711
00:33:57,480 --> 00:33:59,240
Speaker 5: to play a bunch of tight ends. We know that,

712
00:33:59,800 --> 00:34:03,000
Speaker 5: so you know, Michael Mayer probably plays some. You can

713
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:06,440
Speaker 5: get into this. Charlie Kolar started to consider a little

714
00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:08,400
Speaker 5: bit like is you know, purely ast kind of a

715
00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:11,160
Speaker 5: twentieth round guy. He's a name on my mind of

716
00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:13,440
Speaker 5: not hammering him, but Mike is sicky. I've taken a

717
00:34:13,480 --> 00:34:16,160
Speaker 5: lot of yeah, because I think he you know, he's

718
00:34:16,160 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 5: on a good offense.

719
00:34:16,960 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 2: He'll run routes. It's gonna be part time.

720
00:34:18,840 --> 00:34:20,279
Speaker 5: He'll spike for a couple of weeks, but it's the

721
00:34:20,320 --> 00:34:22,640
Speaker 5: same type of profile that you would have had probably

722
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:24,799
Speaker 5: a little bit more cheaply with with some of these

723
00:34:24,800 --> 00:34:27,440
Speaker 5: wide receivers that are harder to find once she gets

724
00:34:27,480 --> 00:34:29,440
Speaker 5: the final rounds and then I am taking though, as

725
00:34:29,480 --> 00:34:32,080
Speaker 5: I alluded to earlier, some of these rookie wide receivers.

726
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:35,440
Speaker 5: I still think those guys are under priced and you

727
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,279
Speaker 5: can get even in the final rounds. You can get

728
00:34:37,280 --> 00:34:40,880
Speaker 5: a Chris Brasel, you can get the Jacoby Lane, Elijah

729
00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 5: so Rott, you know, one or both those guys if

730
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,800
Speaker 5: you want. You can get zach Ryt Branch. You know,

731
00:34:46,840 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 5: there's a bunch of those rookie wide receivers that are

732
00:34:48,920 --> 00:34:51,399
Speaker 5: still I mean, Jeremy Bernard is still you know, he's

733
00:34:51,400 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 5: more expensive than that. He's in the one eighties, but

734
00:34:54,239 --> 00:34:56,759
Speaker 5: he's pretty cheap for a second round pick, you know.

735
00:34:56,840 --> 00:34:58,279
Speaker 2: So there's once you.

736
00:34:58,280 --> 00:35:01,840
Speaker 5: Get you know, not the final rounds, but late in

737
00:35:01,920 --> 00:35:05,400
Speaker 5: the draft, those rookieide receivers definitely pop two well with

738
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 5: the tight ends.

739
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:09,800
Speaker 3: This is this is kind of I feel like, made

740
00:35:09,840 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 3: me not go as hard at elite tight end right now.

741
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,040
Speaker 3: Is the fact that because the the latter parts of

742
00:35:18,120 --> 00:35:21,520
Speaker 3: the draft are I should say more so McBride than Bauers,

743
00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:24,080
Speaker 3: to be fair, but like because the latter parts of

744
00:35:24,080 --> 00:35:26,000
Speaker 3: the draft are set up the way they're they're set

745
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:30,440
Speaker 3: up where I feel relatively decent about like Terrence Ferguson

746
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 3: having a role this year, like like doing doing something

747
00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:35,920
Speaker 3: at some point, right, and like being a tight end

748
00:35:35,960 --> 00:35:38,399
Speaker 3: three or four even four right, because if I'm if

749
00:35:38,400 --> 00:35:41,360
Speaker 3: I'm waiting a decent or like Pat Fryarmouth or someone

750
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:42,239
Speaker 3: like that, where like.

751
00:35:42,280 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, liked Washington, sure sure like the like there.

752
00:35:46,520 --> 00:35:48,360
Speaker 3: And it's because of, like you said, the way the

753
00:35:48,440 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 3: NFL is of all the way it's changed, and you're

754
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 3: you're able to at least capture that position in that way.

755
00:35:54,040 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 3: But then you're staring at like Brock Bauers, who could

756
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 3: clearly go nuclear this year. Ye you know, you're staring

757
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,320
Speaker 3: at Trade McBride coming off the season that he had.

758
00:36:01,880 --> 00:36:04,360
Speaker 3: Even Colson Lovelin you can make a very easy pro

759
00:36:04,560 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 3: argument for. So what's been your approach at tight end?

760
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:11,279
Speaker 3: Has it been like like, Okay, I'm in round two,

761
00:36:11,480 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 3: I'm gonna just draft Bowers and then obviously adjust you

762
00:36:14,360 --> 00:36:16,799
Speaker 3: know as I go, Or is it like, hey, I

763
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:19,600
Speaker 3: know that the way the landscape looks right now, is

764
00:36:19,600 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 3: that there's a lot of ambiguity in those late rounds

765
00:36:21,719 --> 00:36:23,640
Speaker 3: where I'm probably gonna just get tight end. So maybe

766
00:36:23,640 --> 00:36:27,000
Speaker 3: I'm gonna lean running back wide receiver instead in round

767
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:29,440
Speaker 3: two and not go after one of these guys and

768
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 3: then maybe get some some some of exposure to those

769
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,440
Speaker 3: guys later on in the year. Has that been a

770
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:36,880
Speaker 3: thought process or has it just been like, no, I

771
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:40,160
Speaker 3: think Bowers are gonna smash, I'm gonna draft Rock Bowers. Yeah.

772
00:36:40,200 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 5: I think this this question kind of goes to, like

773
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 5: with best Ball, you're there's sort of the are you

774
00:36:46,320 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 5: evaluating like what has worked in the past versus trying

775
00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:53,600
Speaker 5: to be forward looking and what will work given a

776
00:36:53,840 --> 00:36:57,320
Speaker 5: brand new set of ADPs that apply to this specific

777
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,000
Speaker 5: player pool that we're only going to get one show

778
00:37:00,560 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 5: this offseason. And this is where we have a tool

779
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:05,960
Speaker 5: leg up called the Sidekick that has it's a SEM

780
00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:09,399
Speaker 5: driven player recommendation tool, and we're able to evaluate things

781
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 5: like what is available now versus what it is available

782
00:37:11,600 --> 00:37:14,359
Speaker 5: later by sending out the NFL season and then also

783
00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 5: the contests that you're in. And what we're seeing, honestly

784
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,440
Speaker 5: is that like Bowers, the fact that these tight ends

785
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,319
Speaker 5: are available later does not mean that you need to

786
00:37:23,360 --> 00:37:27,319
Speaker 5: avoid Bowers, and in fact, when you have Bowers, you

787
00:37:27,360 --> 00:37:29,640
Speaker 5: do not need to limit yourself to two tight ends.

788
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 5: Like if you get to the final rounds and it's

789
00:37:32,320 --> 00:37:36,319
Speaker 5: like there aren't any good players left, but there are

790
00:37:36,360 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 5: some tight ends who could hit your lineup, you should

791
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:42,279
Speaker 5: probably take those tight ends. And it might be the

792
00:37:42,320 --> 00:37:45,480
Speaker 5: case that you have extra roster spots as well, if

793
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:48,120
Speaker 5: you went with a build that's like four or five

794
00:37:48,200 --> 00:37:50,720
Speaker 5: total running backs, where you've got some running backs early.

795
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,400
Speaker 5: I don't think you necessarily need eleven wide receivers, even

796
00:37:55,520 --> 00:37:58,200
Speaker 5: on full PPR in twenty rounds on draft games, like

797
00:37:58,440 --> 00:38:02,160
Speaker 5: you can have nine wide receivers. You can have you know, three,

798
00:38:02,880 --> 00:38:04,839
Speaker 5: maybe even four tight ends, depending on where your tight

799
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:08,320
Speaker 5: end two came with a Brock Bowers or Trey McBride

800
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 5: or a Calls some love Owner or Tyler Warren or

801
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:12,880
Speaker 5: whatever like you can you can still build in some

802
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:15,000
Speaker 5: depth at that position if the opportunity cost at the

803
00:38:15,040 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 5: other positions is pretty low and if you have I

804
00:38:18,400 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 5: think particularly if you have running back covered with kind

805
00:38:21,719 --> 00:38:25,400
Speaker 5: of a hyper fragile build where you've got at least

806
00:38:25,400 --> 00:38:27,200
Speaker 5: a couple early kind of hammers.

807
00:38:27,800 --> 00:38:30,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, have you been have you gone after Bowers more

808
00:38:30,280 --> 00:38:31,799
Speaker 3: than McBride so far? Like, has that been?

809
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: I preferers? Yeah? Yeah, yeah, I mean.

810
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,960
Speaker 5: His quarterback situation I feel better about because we're probably

811
00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 5: looking at rookies in both teams in the money weeks

812
00:38:42,640 --> 00:38:46,360
Speaker 5: of these tournaments, and I Mendoza is a better prospect

813
00:38:46,360 --> 00:38:49,839
Speaker 5: than Beck. And then you have you know, you've got

814
00:38:49,880 --> 00:38:52,479
Speaker 5: Clint Kubiak who literally just powered his whole offense through

815
00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,680
Speaker 5: like hyper concentrated through his one elite pass catcher, and

816
00:38:55,719 --> 00:38:57,920
Speaker 5: that very clearly is Brock Bowers.

817
00:38:57,840 --> 00:38:58,800
Speaker 2: On this new team.

818
00:38:59,360 --> 00:38:59,600
Speaker 1: Uh.

819
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:01,760
Speaker 5: And then you know, in the beginning of the season,

820
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:04,239
Speaker 5: if we do get a veteran, I feel as good,

821
00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:06,920
Speaker 5: if not better about, you know, Cousins compared to Brissett,

822
00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:10,160
Speaker 5: given this whole you know, hold out sort of thing

823
00:39:10,280 --> 00:39:13,200
Speaker 5: that you know, and Brissette got there a lot on

824
00:39:13,400 --> 00:39:16,080
Speaker 5: volume last year. They'm not sure he necessarily has with

825
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 5: these the new coaching staff. So and ultimately I think

826
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,720
Speaker 5: Mendoza plays pretty early on in the season.

827
00:39:21,080 --> 00:39:23,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I would agree there. I feel it feels

828
00:39:23,520 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 3: like analysts are piling on Trey McBride to a degree, right, now,

829
00:39:26,560 --> 00:39:28,719
Speaker 3: but I think there's there's some reason for it, Like

830
00:39:28,760 --> 00:39:32,319
Speaker 3: there's there's definitely touchdown regression that will likely come, which

831
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,399
Speaker 3: is crazy to say, right because McBride was not that guy,

832
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,640
Speaker 3: But it's hilarious, you know, like like his end zones,

833
00:39:38,840 --> 00:39:41,360
Speaker 3: like his end zone target number, I think it was

834
00:39:41,360 --> 00:39:43,719
Speaker 3: like eighteen or something last year, which is wild at

835
00:39:43,760 --> 00:39:47,400
Speaker 3: tight end that just does not happen frequently at all. Like,

836
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 3: I think that's been one of the biggest epiphanies for me.

837
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 3: This is kind of a tangent, but like one of

838
00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:55,319
Speaker 3: the biggest epiphanies for me with regression analysis is that

839
00:39:55,719 --> 00:40:00,319
Speaker 3: a lot of people look at the expected numbers and

840
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,520
Speaker 3: they almost you know, like Matthew Stafford. Last year, Stafford

841
00:40:03,880 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 3: Stafford throws forty six touchdown passes, but he hadn't expected

842
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,240
Speaker 3: touchdown number of like forty two or forty three, depending

843
00:40:09,239 --> 00:40:12,040
Speaker 3: on like the formula you're using, which really isn't like

844
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 3: outperforming touchdown expectation by like an obscene amount, Right, But

845
00:40:16,160 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 3: we shouldn't assume that he can get to that expected

846
00:40:18,640 --> 00:40:19,960
Speaker 3: touchdown number year over year.

847
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:21,920
Speaker 2: Right, also will probably regress.

848
00:40:21,640 --> 00:40:24,480
Speaker 3: Exactly, So like there's a the problem. The problem with

849
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 3: the expected numbers that we always like use in reference

850
00:40:27,600 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 3: is that, like, I think that they're often better in

851
00:40:30,120 --> 00:40:32,480
Speaker 3: season than they are out of season, because in season,

852
00:40:32,480 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 3: you're not going to see as many game plan shifts

853
00:40:34,200 --> 00:40:37,439
Speaker 3: and you can really spot regression that way, whereas out

854
00:40:37,440 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 3: of season, like things can change dramatically, like we're seeing

855
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:42,560
Speaker 3: in Arizona right now, where we don't even know Jacoby,

856
00:40:42,680 --> 00:40:44,960
Speaker 3: like what the deal is with Jacoby Brissett. We don't

857
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,560
Speaker 3: know when he'll be starting, and I think that we

858
00:40:46,600 --> 00:40:49,279
Speaker 3: feel confident that towards the end of the year again

859
00:40:49,360 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 3: the money weeks, he won't be starting for that team.

860
00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:55,440
Speaker 3: And they obviously got by last year and fantasy on

861
00:40:55,520 --> 00:40:58,279
Speaker 3: a from a volume perspective, and they were the top

862
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 3: team in pass attempts last year, And there's just a

863
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 3: lot of like question marks and ambiguity, whereas like everything

864
00:41:04,480 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 3: else with brock Bauers is just seemingly pointed up right,

865
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,520
Speaker 3: Like it just seems like it's gone in a much

866
00:41:09,520 --> 00:41:10,560
Speaker 3: more favorable direction.

867
00:41:11,200 --> 00:41:13,040
Speaker 5: I agree with what you just said, and it's one

868
00:41:13,080 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 5: reason that I like to look. I like players who

869
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:19,160
Speaker 5: are efficient, you know, because you know who who generally

870
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:22,759
Speaker 5: is efficient? Good players, right, right, And I recognize that

871
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:26,520
Speaker 5: if someone is insanely efficient that they'll probably regress. Like

872
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,839
Speaker 5: I don't expect Dalton Kinkaid to have like two point

873
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,200
Speaker 5: seven yards per out run or whatever if he runs

874
00:41:31,600 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 5: a lot more routes, which I would like him to do.

875
00:41:33,360 --> 00:41:36,840
Speaker 5: If if I'm betting on Kincaid, that probably drops. But

876
00:41:36,880 --> 00:41:38,480
Speaker 5: you know, he's got one point seven nine career yards

877
00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:40,480
Speaker 5: per out run. He's probably pretty good, you know. So

878
00:41:40,960 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 5: the efficiency part of it is something I do want

879
00:41:44,840 --> 00:41:47,120
Speaker 5: to consider in a positive way as supposed to.

880
00:41:47,000 --> 00:41:48,520
Speaker 2: Just betting on that volume.

881
00:41:48,520 --> 00:41:51,759
Speaker 5: And I think the like Prissette wasn't bad last year

882
00:41:51,800 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 5: from an efficiency standpoint, but so much of the production

883
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 5: really was volume driven. In with new coaching staff, I

884
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 5: don't feel confident that we get really high drop back

885
00:42:01,560 --> 00:42:04,160
Speaker 5: volume there, and I don't think we'll get really high

886
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:07,080
Speaker 5: drop back volume in Las Vegas, to be clear, I

887
00:42:07,120 --> 00:42:09,600
Speaker 5: don't think we'll have probably low drop back volume, but

888
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:14,960
Speaker 5: just the target concentration from Clint Kubiak in a well designed,

889
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:17,560
Speaker 5: you know, type of passing game that's that's looking to

890
00:42:17,560 --> 00:42:20,240
Speaker 5: punish defenses for overplaying the run and run the ball

891
00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 5: a lot to make them overplay the run and then

892
00:42:22,600 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 5: play action off of that. I mean, Bowers is a

893
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,200
Speaker 5: perfect fit for that, like a play action weapon, Like

894
00:42:27,239 --> 00:42:30,640
Speaker 5: that's his whole deal. So and then like Trey Tucker,

895
00:42:30,680 --> 00:42:34,400
Speaker 5: they're talking up, who was a pretty good pick early on,

896
00:42:34,480 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 5: he was very cheap. He's moved up a bit and

897
00:42:36,920 --> 00:42:38,759
Speaker 5: they're moving him around the formation and he's kind of

898
00:42:38,760 --> 00:42:41,320
Speaker 5: clearly the number one wide receiver there right now, probably

899
00:42:41,400 --> 00:42:43,600
Speaker 5: Jack Besh or Deontay Thorton. They're figuring it out as

900
00:42:43,600 --> 00:42:46,480
Speaker 5: their wide receiver too. Like we often like talk about, like, hey,

901
00:42:46,520 --> 00:42:48,640
Speaker 5: it's actually pretty good when there's tight ends on the

902
00:42:48,640 --> 00:42:51,560
Speaker 5: field for the wide receivers because that lowers their target competition.

903
00:42:51,920 --> 00:42:54,160
Speaker 5: This is like the rare case where it's the opposite,

904
00:42:54,440 --> 00:42:55,520
Speaker 5: where're the tight.

905
00:42:56,320 --> 00:43:00,399
Speaker 3: Give Michael mayor please Yeah, I if I'm if I'm

906
00:43:00,440 --> 00:43:03,239
Speaker 3: drafting Jalen Naylor like Trey Tucker or something like, I'd

907
00:43:03,320 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 3: much rather Jack Besh be on the field than Yeah.

908
00:43:07,640 --> 00:43:07,879
Speaker 2: Yeah.

909
00:43:07,960 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 5: So I mean Bowers is actually benefiting from from how

910
00:43:10,719 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 5: bad the receivers are there as well. So yeah, I mean,

911
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 5: I mean, and he you know, just an elite prospect,

912
00:43:17,320 --> 00:43:19,800
Speaker 5: great rookie year struggled through an injury last year, was

913
00:43:19,840 --> 00:43:23,960
Speaker 5: still fairly productive, you know, all things considered, and is

914
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:27,680
Speaker 5: set up for the potential for him to go nuclear

915
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,840
Speaker 5: is what is what has me on Bowers over McBride,

916
00:43:30,920 --> 00:43:33,800
Speaker 5: and ADP has followed that. Now you know you'd be

917
00:43:33,840 --> 00:43:35,680
Speaker 5: going against the market if you went McBride.

918
00:43:35,680 --> 00:43:39,480
Speaker 3: First, Let's talk about those early rounds though, because the

919
00:43:39,520 --> 00:43:42,520
Speaker 3: meta I'd say, so, here's the thing. I've been doing

920
00:43:42,560 --> 00:43:45,080
Speaker 3: a lot of like season long analysis for the draft guide,

921
00:43:45,160 --> 00:43:47,759
Speaker 3: for the late round draft guide, and I do think

922
00:43:47,840 --> 00:43:52,319
Speaker 3: that the especially within our like circle, like the strategy

923
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:56,440
Speaker 3: talk about fantasy football, is very much dominated by best

924
00:43:56,480 --> 00:43:59,319
Speaker 3: ball as opposed to the season long and so there's

925
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,000
Speaker 3: a lot of top right now about how like things

926
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 3: are so different with the amount of running backs that

927
00:44:03,840 --> 00:44:06,359
Speaker 3: people are drafting early and such. But if you look

928
00:44:06,360 --> 00:44:09,080
Speaker 3: at season long, ADP, and you look at like how

929
00:44:09,160 --> 00:44:11,080
Speaker 3: many running backs have been drafted in round one, you know,

930
00:44:11,120 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 3: top twelve, top twenty four, top thirty six, top forty eight,

931
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:17,360
Speaker 3: top sixty year over year over the last few years,

932
00:44:17,400 --> 00:44:21,240
Speaker 3: there's there's maybe one or two more that we're seeing

933
00:44:21,640 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 3: this year versus like previous years, which really shouldn't dramatically

934
00:44:25,120 --> 00:44:27,799
Speaker 3: change a narrative. You know, like it really shouldn't like

935
00:44:28,000 --> 00:44:31,120
Speaker 3: drastically change the way that we're viewing things. But in

936
00:44:31,200 --> 00:44:34,040
Speaker 3: Best Ball I do think that it's different from two perspectives,

937
00:44:34,120 --> 00:44:36,799
Speaker 3: one being yes, there are maybe some more running backs

938
00:44:36,840 --> 00:44:39,480
Speaker 3: being drafted early. But also I think that the talking

939
00:44:39,560 --> 00:44:42,040
Speaker 3: heads too, like the people who are giving analysis and

940
00:44:42,080 --> 00:44:46,600
Speaker 3: talking about the game, are being more comfortable drafting running

941
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,520
Speaker 3: backs with their first couple, first few picks and just

942
00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:52,480
Speaker 3: going running back heavy. And we're like back to that,

943
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 3: you know, meta if you will, you know that we

944
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:58,839
Speaker 3: were doing when like during the MFL ten years back

945
00:44:58,840 --> 00:45:00,960
Speaker 3: in the day, you know, like this was this was

946
00:45:01,000 --> 00:45:03,160
Speaker 3: the way that like, like I remember Mike Beers, who

947
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:06,919
Speaker 3: was very into the Best ball game was was all

948
00:45:06,960 --> 00:45:10,320
Speaker 3: about the three running back be done kind of build

949
00:45:11,120 --> 00:45:13,440
Speaker 3: that that I think is much more popular today than

950
00:45:13,480 --> 00:45:15,040
Speaker 3: it was three or four years ago, you know, And

951
00:45:15,640 --> 00:45:18,319
Speaker 3: that's just the way that this is all transpired. So

952
00:45:18,680 --> 00:45:21,720
Speaker 3: I guess my question to you is as a result

953
00:45:21,719 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 3: of that, you know, we often know that we should

954
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:27,239
Speaker 3: be zigging when people are zagging, Is this a year

955
00:45:27,280 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 3: then that we should be looking to go zero RB

956
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 3: or like maybe even saying like is it a year

957
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:35,000
Speaker 3: that we should have that more frequently than the market

958
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:35,920
Speaker 3: in our portfolio.

959
00:45:36,440 --> 00:45:39,239
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I guess on the on the kind of

960
00:45:39,280 --> 00:45:42,160
Speaker 5: the concept of like the running backs, because the narrative

961
00:45:42,200 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 5: is sort of like, uh, you know, full Boomer capitulation.

962
00:45:45,280 --> 00:45:47,879
Speaker 5: You know, guys like me aren't doing zero running back.

963
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:52,960
Speaker 5: We're doing you know, hyper fragile more often or you know,

964
00:45:53,120 --> 00:45:54,680
Speaker 5: Mike is, I'm doing it a lot more often than

965
00:45:54,680 --> 00:45:58,920
Speaker 5: I'm going zero running back this year. And I guess

966
00:45:58,960 --> 00:46:02,359
Speaker 5: like what I would kind of push back on that

967
00:46:02,480 --> 00:46:06,200
Speaker 5: narrative is that, like, if you look back at you

968
00:46:06,719 --> 00:46:10,400
Speaker 5: I wrote an article just looking at the the rookie

969
00:46:10,400 --> 00:46:12,840
Speaker 5: wide receiver pricing, and as part of that, I was

970
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 5: looking because a rookie wide receiver has been on all

971
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,120
Speaker 5: the winning Best Bomania teams so far, and so I

972
00:46:17,160 --> 00:46:20,480
Speaker 5: pulled those teams up and it's like, hey, you know

973
00:46:20,520 --> 00:46:25,520
Speaker 5: the wide receiver too. Here was like pick fourteen like

974
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:27,839
Speaker 5: in this you know, in like Liam Murphy's winning Draft.

975
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:31,160
Speaker 5: It's like it was literally pick fourteen that we didn't

976
00:46:31,160 --> 00:46:33,880
Speaker 5: see the second wide receiver come off the board. And

977
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:41,800
Speaker 5: this is still like a super different environment than that environment,

978
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 5: like the idea that there is something happening which is

979
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:49,319
Speaker 5: that people like me who have traditionally really liked to

980
00:46:49,320 --> 00:46:52,359
Speaker 5: go zero running back aren't going zero running back as

981
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 5: often and are mixing in builds that where we take

982
00:46:55,680 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 5: more running backs in the first you know, five rounds. Sure,

983
00:46:59,160 --> 00:47:02,759
Speaker 5: then we used to, but it doesn't it's not the

984
00:47:02,800 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 5: same thing as the ADP has shifted to the point yes,

985
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:10,280
Speaker 5: where all these running backs are going super high again.

986
00:47:10,680 --> 00:47:12,720
Speaker 5: And I think that's the big thing that that people

987
00:47:13,719 --> 00:47:19,240
Speaker 5: are kind of like conflating, where if the prices haven't

988
00:47:19,320 --> 00:47:23,320
Speaker 5: shifted that much overall in terms of like where the

989
00:47:23,320 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 5: wide receivers go. I mean we're seeing Chase jsn Puoka, Jefferson,

990
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:34,160
Speaker 5: Lamb amen Ra always basically going in the first nine

991
00:47:34,239 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 5: ish picks, right nine to ten picks, they're gone. Maybe

992
00:47:37,120 --> 00:47:39,520
Speaker 5: maybe get lucky gets CD at eleven or something. But

993
00:47:39,560 --> 00:47:43,239
Speaker 5: at the end around one those six wide receivers are gone.

994
00:47:43,640 --> 00:47:45,920
Speaker 5: And so it's not like the whole it's not just

995
00:47:46,040 --> 00:47:48,160
Speaker 5: those MFL ten days it was just green.

996
00:47:48,680 --> 00:47:49,240
Speaker 2: It's green.

997
00:47:49,320 --> 00:47:52,600
Speaker 5: There might be one wide receiver, you're you're into RB

998
00:47:52,640 --> 00:47:55,400
Speaker 5: twos by the middle around too, like you're deep in

999
00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:59,439
Speaker 5: the RB twos. So that's where you know, I think

1000
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:03,200
Speaker 5: actually you look at you have to look at the

1001
00:48:03,239 --> 00:48:07,400
Speaker 5: rest of this year's player landscape. And it's not just

1002
00:48:07,440 --> 00:48:10,560
Speaker 5: that this rookie running back class isn't that great and

1003
00:48:11,000 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 5: especially there's no depth to it, right Jeremi I love

1004
00:48:15,200 --> 00:48:18,360
Speaker 5: awesome prospect. He goes at the two three turn. Jendarian

1005
00:48:18,400 --> 00:48:22,000
Speaker 5: Price lands an amazing spot, first round pick. He's usually

1006
00:48:22,040 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 5: gone by the end around five. Okay, and we're kind

1007
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:27,480
Speaker 5: of done, you know, for there's not a lot of

1008
00:48:27,480 --> 00:48:30,800
Speaker 5: guys to invest in at rookies. The second year guys

1009
00:48:30,960 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 5: awesome class. Last year, we've got starters and projected starters

1010
00:48:35,600 --> 00:48:37,439
Speaker 5: coming out of year two.

1011
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:38,600
Speaker 2: Where do they go?

1012
00:48:39,360 --> 00:48:41,680
Speaker 5: You could get base Shoal Tooton in round six maybe,

1013
00:48:41,719 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 5: but that whole tier is pretty much Judkins Henderson.

1014
00:48:46,600 --> 00:48:49,320
Speaker 2: All those guys are gone by the end of round six.

1015
00:48:49,680 --> 00:48:51,760
Speaker 2: So there's your upside group of running backs.

1016
00:48:52,000 --> 00:48:53,960
Speaker 5: How are you going to beat the guys who go

1017
00:48:54,040 --> 00:48:56,080
Speaker 5: early at running back if that kind of like high

1018
00:48:56,160 --> 00:49:00,080
Speaker 5: upside tier is basically wiped out. Now there's guys I like,

1019
00:48:59,719 --> 00:49:02,719
Speaker 5: like like Jonathan Brooks, but he's rocketed up since he's

1020
00:49:02,800 --> 00:49:05,720
Speaker 5: looked healthier. He's you know, he's going in the nineties.

1021
00:49:05,760 --> 00:49:07,279
Speaker 5: A lot of the times now. So it's not like

1022
00:49:07,320 --> 00:49:10,000
Speaker 5: you can sit back in round thirteen and scoop up

1023
00:49:10,040 --> 00:49:13,640
Speaker 5: Jonathan Brooks. You know, it's like, how do I beat

1024
00:49:13,880 --> 00:49:16,239
Speaker 5: these these teams that have the early running backs? And

1025
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:19,320
Speaker 5: I think in a lot of cases it's by also

1026
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:22,520
Speaker 5: having some early running backs. Maybe I've got two or

1027
00:49:22,560 --> 00:49:25,840
Speaker 5: three guys, maybe I've got four total running backs on

1028
00:49:25,880 --> 00:49:29,480
Speaker 5: the build, and I'm done that. Mike Beer's hyperfragile. This

1029
00:49:29,560 --> 00:49:32,400
Speaker 5: is justin Herzig one with a hyperfragile team back in

1030
00:49:32,440 --> 00:49:33,160
Speaker 5: twenty twenty.

1031
00:49:34,120 --> 00:49:35,719
Speaker 2: It's a build that has worked.

1032
00:49:35,920 --> 00:49:38,000
Speaker 5: You know that there's historical backing to it, and I

1033
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,560
Speaker 5: think it makes a lot of sense for this current landscape.

1034
00:49:40,760 --> 00:49:44,520
Speaker 5: As we talked about earlier, it's June. We might have

1035
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:48,280
Speaker 5: running backs that bubble up as really strong picks. Nicholas

1036
00:49:48,280 --> 00:49:50,880
Speaker 5: Singleton could look like an awesome pick, you know. Tyjae

1037
00:49:50,920 --> 00:49:53,000
Speaker 5: Spears could be someone that we're like starting to think

1038
00:49:53,239 --> 00:49:56,000
Speaker 5: it could push Tony Pollard or something like. I don't know,

1039
00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:58,240
Speaker 5: there's like a bunch of guys I don't feel confident

1040
00:49:58,239 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 5: in either of those plays.

1041
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:02,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, there's there's things that can go down.

1042
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:05,240
Speaker 5: Yeah, there's things that can go down, you know, and

1043
00:50:05,320 --> 00:50:10,160
Speaker 5: so the landscape could be pretty different in August, or

1044
00:50:10,160 --> 00:50:13,920
Speaker 5: at least mildly different, you know. And I'm mixing in

1045
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,879
Speaker 5: different builds. I do have some zero running back builds now,

1046
00:50:16,920 --> 00:50:19,200
Speaker 5: to be clear, I have some heer running back builds.

1047
00:50:19,160 --> 00:50:21,279
Speaker 5: I have builds where I go running back running back,

1048
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:23,920
Speaker 5: and then push it for running back three. I've got

1049
00:50:23,960 --> 00:50:27,279
Speaker 5: a mix of things that I'm doing. But yeah, one

1050
00:50:27,320 --> 00:50:28,960
Speaker 5: of the things that I'm doing is like I've got

1051
00:50:28,960 --> 00:50:31,480
Speaker 5: builds that are four x running backs, like running backs

1052
00:50:31,480 --> 00:50:34,239
Speaker 5: in a row. Like I've not really done that in

1053
00:50:34,239 --> 00:50:37,960
Speaker 5: the past. I think that's where something like when we're

1054
00:50:38,000 --> 00:50:42,400
Speaker 5: evaluating this player landscape using sims and using logic to

1055
00:50:42,440 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 5: an extent of like, yeah, running backs just aren't really

1056
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,240
Speaker 5: the upside at the position is drying up faster.

1057
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:52,320
Speaker 2: Right. That's such such a big core.

1058
00:50:52,200 --> 00:50:54,920
Speaker 5: Part of what's going on is like who can you

1059
00:50:54,960 --> 00:50:58,400
Speaker 5: sell yourself up on realistic upside? Not the kind of

1060
00:50:58,400 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 5: guy that you can go, h, I'll cut them if

1061
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:01,799
Speaker 5: it doesn't work out, I'll cut them.

1062
00:51:02,120 --> 00:51:02,960
Speaker 2: I can't cut.

1063
00:51:02,840 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 5: Them right, right, So who is a guy that you

1064
00:51:05,880 --> 00:51:07,920
Speaker 5: have the confidence that you won on your roster all

1065
00:51:07,960 --> 00:51:11,880
Speaker 5: year and then has upside especially upside he can achieve

1066
00:51:11,920 --> 00:51:15,239
Speaker 5: without an injury, you know, like a Bucky Irving, a

1067
00:51:15,360 --> 00:51:17,600
Speaker 5: Chase Brown like that kind of play.

1068
00:51:19,000 --> 00:51:19,399
Speaker 2: It's thin.

1069
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,840
Speaker 3: It's then this year, I think that there's two things

1070
00:51:22,880 --> 00:51:25,920
Speaker 3: happening here. So it's funny that you bring all this

1071
00:51:26,000 --> 00:51:28,319
Speaker 3: up because I'm working on the running back section in

1072
00:51:28,360 --> 00:51:30,600
Speaker 3: the Draft guide right now. And one of the things

1073
00:51:30,600 --> 00:51:32,800
Speaker 3: that I'm doing that I do every year to a degree.

1074
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:34,480
Speaker 3: I'm trying to do it in like different ways and

1075
00:51:34,520 --> 00:51:37,719
Speaker 3: more precise ways every year. But I'm looking at how

1076
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,120
Speaker 3: we've drafted running backs within their position, every position within

1077
00:51:41,160 --> 00:51:43,840
Speaker 3: their position, so like positional rank, like so RB one

1078
00:51:43,920 --> 00:51:46,399
Speaker 3: to twelve, RB one to twenty four up till forty eight,

1079
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,279
Speaker 3: And I do that at wide receiver, and I do

1080
00:51:48,320 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 3: it at quarterback through twenty four and tight end through

1081
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:52,560
Speaker 3: twenty four. And I'm looking at the R square between

1082
00:51:52,880 --> 00:51:55,160
Speaker 3: where they were drafted positional rank wise and how many

1083
00:51:55,200 --> 00:51:57,439
Speaker 3: points per game they actually scored, right, just to see

1084
00:51:57,480 --> 00:52:01,239
Speaker 3: how predictive and how well we've done things based on

1085
00:52:01,280 --> 00:52:03,520
Speaker 3: what the market has said, what ADP has said. And

1086
00:52:03,560 --> 00:52:05,239
Speaker 3: if you look at running back and you look at

1087
00:52:05,320 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 3: RB one to RB forty eight, and you compare that

1088
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:11,319
Speaker 3: to wide receiver one through wide receiver forty eight number one.

1089
00:52:11,360 --> 00:52:14,040
Speaker 3: Since twenty fourteen, running back has actually been more predictive

1090
00:52:14,080 --> 00:52:16,000
Speaker 3: when you look at guys who have played eight or

1091
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:19,160
Speaker 3: more games and points per game. But the really crazy

1092
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 3: thing is that since twenty sixteen, so you're cutting off

1093
00:52:22,800 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 3: the first three years in that subset, it's basically just

1094
00:52:25,920 --> 00:52:28,640
Speaker 3: continue to get more and more predictive. Like we've gotten

1095
00:52:29,080 --> 00:52:32,440
Speaker 3: better and better at predicting which running backs are. There's been,

1096
00:52:32,480 --> 00:52:34,359
Speaker 3: you know, some valleys in there, Like twenty twenty three

1097
00:52:34,440 --> 00:52:36,479
Speaker 3: was a pretty bad year for how we did things

1098
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:39,040
Speaker 3: ADP wise, but like last year we were at like

1099
00:52:39,280 --> 00:52:41,399
Speaker 3: a point four to nine are square the year before

1100
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 3: that point four to seven, when the average over this

1101
00:52:43,280 --> 00:52:45,120
Speaker 3: time period was point three to nine. So we've been

1102
00:52:45,160 --> 00:52:47,800
Speaker 3: better over the last few years and handful of years

1103
00:52:48,000 --> 00:52:50,439
Speaker 3: than we were at the start of this sample, right,

1104
00:52:50,680 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 3: And I think two things are happening. I think that,

1105
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:55,400
Speaker 3: you know, I do think that people are just generally smarter,

1106
00:52:55,520 --> 00:52:58,080
Speaker 3: and we're better at pinpointing who's good who is and

1107
00:52:58,120 --> 00:53:01,799
Speaker 3: there's information everywhere tension to paying more at tension, Like

1108
00:53:01,840 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 3: there's there's reason as to why we would be better

1109
00:53:04,239 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 3: at predicting which running backs are going to be good.

1110
00:53:06,520 --> 00:53:08,960
Speaker 3: But I also do think this plays a very direct

1111
00:53:09,080 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 3: role in what you referenced earlier, which was the way

1112
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:15,120
Speaker 3: the NFL landscape has actually changed, because one of the

1113
00:53:15,120 --> 00:53:18,640
Speaker 3: things that's gone on with running back recently is not

1114
00:53:18,680 --> 00:53:20,800
Speaker 3: only is it a more run heavy league in the

1115
00:53:20,880 --> 00:53:23,360
Speaker 3: NFL right now, like we're seeing just more runs in general,

1116
00:53:23,400 --> 00:53:27,160
Speaker 3: and running back having a larger like pie of touchdowns

1117
00:53:27,239 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 3: let's say, or whatever the case may be. So like

1118
00:53:29,360 --> 00:53:32,239
Speaker 3: that's gonna help these earlier round guys who we know

1119
00:53:32,280 --> 00:53:35,680
Speaker 3: we're gonna get big workloads do well. But while this

1120
00:53:35,719 --> 00:53:37,759
Speaker 3: is all going on in this twelve personnel and these

1121
00:53:37,760 --> 00:53:41,200
Speaker 3: heavy personnel packages are happening, running backs are being targeted

1122
00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:43,520
Speaker 3: at a lower rate, but the elite guys are still

1123
00:53:43,520 --> 00:53:46,640
Speaker 3: seeing pretty decent target shaars overall. And so I think

1124
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:49,680
Speaker 3: what we saw back in twenty sixteen. And by the way,

1125
00:53:49,880 --> 00:53:52,080
Speaker 3: this is not fully fledged out in the draft guide yet,

1126
00:53:52,080 --> 00:53:53,959
Speaker 3: but this was like literally the section I was about

1127
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:56,480
Speaker 3: to start like writing and like digging into. But this

1128
00:53:56,520 --> 00:53:58,560
Speaker 3: is very much like fresh on my mind but not

1129
00:53:58,760 --> 00:54:01,480
Speaker 3: fully out. But what I think is going on is

1130
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:04,480
Speaker 3: that when we did zero RB when it was most successful,

1131
00:54:04,480 --> 00:54:07,920
Speaker 3: which probably peaked in like twenty sixteen ish timeframe. Like

1132
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:09,920
Speaker 3: in that like peak peak, right.

1133
00:54:09,800 --> 00:54:14,080
Speaker 5: Like there was good zero running back beastball results, like

1134
00:54:14,200 --> 00:54:16,680
Speaker 5: really good results for like twenty twenty one, twenty.

1135
00:54:16,440 --> 00:54:19,400
Speaker 3: Two to two, and you still had it then. But

1136
00:54:19,440 --> 00:54:21,279
Speaker 3: what I think is going on is that back then,

1137
00:54:22,200 --> 00:54:25,319
Speaker 3: even five years ago, we were able to say this

1138
00:54:25,360 --> 00:54:27,239
Speaker 3: guy at the very least is going to have a

1139
00:54:27,280 --> 00:54:29,840
Speaker 3: really good receiving role and then it can build up

1140
00:54:29,880 --> 00:54:32,960
Speaker 3: into something bigger on the ground as well. Those guys

1141
00:54:32,960 --> 00:54:36,759
Speaker 3: are so difficult to find right now. In my opinion, I.

1142
00:54:36,680 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 5: Agree with that, and that's something I think Gretch's written about,

1143
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:41,320
Speaker 5: this Ben Gretch, but this kind of getting that archetype

1144
00:54:41,320 --> 00:54:44,799
Speaker 5: getting phased out a little bit over time, and so

1145
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:47,040
Speaker 5: I think that's there's definitely something to that.

1146
00:54:47,560 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 2: I also think it's something.

1147
00:54:49,320 --> 00:54:54,040
Speaker 5: Where there's guys Mike Davis when he was the Falcon starter,

1148
00:54:54,280 --> 00:54:56,839
Speaker 5: was like a fifth round pick, yeah in basketball, right,

1149
00:54:57,239 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 5: Alexander Madison when he was kind of anointed as the

1150
00:54:59,680 --> 00:55:03,200
Speaker 5: Viking starter but like clearly wasn't good.

1151
00:55:03,400 --> 00:55:04,919
Speaker 3: Zamir White a couple of years ago.

1152
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:09,600
Speaker 5: Zamir White, Yeah, these types of guys we're talking about, uh,

1153
00:55:09,920 --> 00:55:13,360
Speaker 5: sixth round picks, right, like Trey Sermon, you know, like

1154
00:55:14,120 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 5: I mean, I guess you.

1155
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:16,160
Speaker 2: Could say he was an upside pick. I thought he

1156
00:55:16,200 --> 00:55:17,239
Speaker 2: was so bad that I didn't buy it.

1157
00:55:17,280 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 3: But he's like a seventh rounder, like he was like yeah.

1158
00:55:20,520 --> 00:55:21,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah.

1159
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 3: So.

1160
00:55:21,920 --> 00:55:23,600
Speaker 5: But you have these kind of guys that are what,

1161
00:55:24,040 --> 00:55:26,840
Speaker 5: for one reason or another kind of more like volume

1162
00:55:26,960 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 5: plays where you it's like they're the either the prospect

1163
00:55:31,000 --> 00:55:36,240
Speaker 5: profile or the the you know NFL efficiency sample really

1164
00:55:36,280 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 5: wasn't there. That kind of reminds me of Rashad White

1165
00:55:40,800 --> 00:55:44,799
Speaker 5: or Aaron Jones or Jordan Mason or you know, these

1166
00:55:44,840 --> 00:55:48,719
Speaker 5: guys that are now going very cheaply, like around like

1167
00:55:48,840 --> 00:55:52,160
Speaker 5: one twenty or something like that. Those are your old

1168
00:55:52,320 --> 00:55:55,560
Speaker 5: sixth round picks. Rashad White signs, you know, a cheap deal,

1169
00:55:55,600 --> 00:55:58,920
Speaker 5: but he's the nominal starter for the Commander's good offense.

1170
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:01,440
Speaker 5: Can project him for vall because he's going to catch passes.

1171
00:56:02,080 --> 00:56:06,759
Speaker 5: Sixth round pick, easy, easy, easy fade, We're gonna take Like,

1172
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:09,880
Speaker 5: give me the guy. Chris Rodriguez I think would have

1173
00:56:09,920 --> 00:56:12,480
Speaker 5: been more like a seventh round pick, you know a

1174
00:56:12,520 --> 00:56:15,280
Speaker 5: few years ago, and Bachhall Tuton might be going behind him,

1175
00:56:15,280 --> 00:56:17,799
Speaker 5: But now it's Bachell Tuton's five to six and you

1176
00:56:17,880 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 5: have to pay up for him, pay up for the upside.

1177
00:56:21,040 --> 00:56:23,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, and it makes that discussion more difficult for people

1178
00:56:23,280 --> 00:56:25,520
Speaker 3: like us who might like be into that player because

1179
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:26,880
Speaker 3: he's up to that case. And then all of a

1180
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:30,400
Speaker 3: sudden you're like, yeah, like I like base Shall Tuton

1181
00:56:30,400 --> 00:56:32,840
Speaker 3: a lot as a prospect, right and I and but

1182
00:56:32,960 --> 00:56:35,440
Speaker 3: now you're in this this you have a real decision

1183
00:56:35,480 --> 00:56:38,880
Speaker 3: to make, whereas be sure as an analyst, you're just like, yeah,

1184
00:56:39,120 --> 00:56:41,960
Speaker 3: draft him as a as an eighth ninth round pick, easy,

1185
00:56:42,160 --> 00:56:42,600
Speaker 3: Like just.

1186
00:56:42,640 --> 00:56:46,239
Speaker 5: Dannt, Why am I taking Kyen Williams. Karen Williams is

1187
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:49,839
Speaker 5: a fragile play I can get ba Shall Tuton, who

1188
00:56:49,960 --> 00:56:54,319
Speaker 5: might outperform Kien Williams in the ninth or tenth round. Like,

1189
00:56:54,880 --> 00:56:56,960
Speaker 5: give me a receiver and I'll beat you at running

1190
00:56:56,960 --> 00:56:58,600
Speaker 5: back anyway. But now I'm like, I'm going to go

1191
00:56:58,640 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 5: to war with some of the most fragile, dustiest running

1192
00:57:03,600 --> 00:57:07,399
Speaker 5: backs I can think of in the one twenties, Like

1193
00:57:07,920 --> 00:57:11,760
Speaker 5: it's just harder, Like how am I gonna lap? Building

1194
00:57:11,760 --> 00:57:13,520
Speaker 5: the super team with the zero running back build was

1195
00:57:13,520 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 5: always like I will I will get the upside profiles

1196
00:57:16,480 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 5: that are undervalued. I will get some veteran profiles that

1197
00:57:20,040 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 5: help me score points early in the season until my

1198
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:26,240
Speaker 5: other guys come online. I'll get rookie profiles. People don't

1199
00:57:26,280 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 5: realize have a much better chance of earning work over

1200
00:57:29,320 --> 00:57:31,800
Speaker 5: the course of the year than they're being given credit for.

1201
00:57:32,160 --> 00:57:34,320
Speaker 2: I don't have. I got the dusty guys.

1202
00:57:34,960 --> 00:57:37,920
Speaker 5: I have cheaper dusty guys than I used to, just

1203
00:57:38,000 --> 00:57:42,720
Speaker 5: pure volume plays, but I don't have the upside at

1204
00:57:42,760 --> 00:57:45,840
Speaker 5: a very cheap cost to where I go. Yeah, what

1205
00:57:46,120 --> 00:57:47,800
Speaker 5: why on earth am I am I taking this?

1206
00:57:48,000 --> 00:57:48,080
Speaker 2: Like?

1207
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:51,400
Speaker 5: You know, Chase Brown's fine, But why am I gonna

1208
00:57:51,400 --> 00:57:53,480
Speaker 5: spend a second round pick when I can get you know,

1209
00:57:53,600 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 5: eighty percent of his production by the end of the

1210
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 5: season in the tenth round. But I don't know who

1211
00:57:58,520 --> 00:58:01,840
Speaker 5: that is, know, And that that's what makes it harder

1212
00:58:01,880 --> 00:58:03,680
Speaker 5: to avoid those early running backs. Now, I don't like

1213
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 5: all the early running backs like the same.

1214
00:58:06,200 --> 00:58:08,000
Speaker 3: But are there are there any that you're that you

1215
00:58:08,040 --> 00:58:09,120
Speaker 3: are fading a little bit?

1216
00:58:09,640 --> 00:58:11,360
Speaker 5: There's a couple that I'm trying to be like a

1217
00:58:11,400 --> 00:58:15,360
Speaker 5: little bit less heavy on James Cook. I'm not taking

1218
00:58:15,400 --> 00:58:17,160
Speaker 5: as much On because I want to be overweight on

1219
00:58:17,280 --> 00:58:21,280
Speaker 5: Ashton Genty. I actually like Sakuon Barkley a good amount this.

1220
00:58:21,640 --> 00:58:25,320
Speaker 5: I like him more than Cook, and so I'm taking

1221
00:58:26,920 --> 00:58:28,880
Speaker 5: generally like I'm getting two picks there. So I have

1222
00:58:28,960 --> 00:58:30,840
Speaker 5: like good amount of Cook Barkley. So it's not like

1223
00:58:30,840 --> 00:58:33,560
Speaker 5: I'm fully fading Cook, but he's someone I'm not as

1224
00:58:33,680 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 5: excited about. I'm not as excited about Chase Brown, Derrick,

1225
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:43,000
Speaker 5: Henry Kyrien Williams. Like there are these profiles that I

1226
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 5: do fundamentally think are kind of fragile, and I don't

1227
00:58:45,560 --> 00:58:48,120
Speaker 5: think the players are that good. So I'm like, yeah,

1228
00:58:48,120 --> 00:58:51,400
Speaker 5: I don't love clicking this guy. Javonte Williams is a

1229
00:58:51,400 --> 00:58:55,200
Speaker 5: click I'm making, but I don't love it, you know.

1230
00:58:55,360 --> 00:58:58,520
Speaker 3: My gosh, that's like I have had a hard time

1231
00:58:58,560 --> 00:59:01,360
Speaker 3: with both him and because I think David Montgomery is

1232
00:59:01,400 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 3: sort of in the same boat.

1233
00:59:02,720 --> 00:59:05,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's a volume based play, yeah, which which.

1234
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:08,760
Speaker 3: Historically we've we've taught people slash, we've done the like

1235
00:59:08,800 --> 00:59:11,320
Speaker 3: don't But I'm also trying to not overthink it a

1236
00:59:11,400 --> 00:59:13,520
Speaker 3: little bit with those players in a way, you know,

1237
00:59:13,560 --> 00:59:17,320
Speaker 3: where I'm just like, this seems so straightforward, but realistically,

1238
00:59:17,480 --> 00:59:20,160
Speaker 3: I don't. I don't want to be massively overweight on

1239
00:59:20,200 --> 00:59:23,360
Speaker 3: those two because it's scary neither me neither, but I do.

1240
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:27,240
Speaker 5: But I think I also have not like hard fading

1241
00:59:27,280 --> 00:59:29,120
Speaker 5: them in a way that I would have a few

1242
00:59:29,160 --> 00:59:32,120
Speaker 5: years ago because it would have been so much easier.

1243
00:59:32,160 --> 00:59:36,200
Speaker 5: So like, look, if I have Ashton Gentes, Saquon Barkley,

1244
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:41,160
Speaker 5: T Higgins or Ze Flowers or Garrett Wilson or whatever,

1245
00:59:42,080 --> 00:59:45,520
Speaker 5: and at Javonte Williams, I have, I have some Ceedee Lamb,

1246
00:59:45,920 --> 00:59:50,360
Speaker 5: Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, you know, and Tenoral McMillan teams

1247
00:59:50,440 --> 00:59:53,240
Speaker 5: or whatever. Like that's pretty fun. Actually, Like I've got

1248
00:59:53,440 --> 00:59:56,960
Speaker 5: and then I get Dak. I might take Jake Ferguson.

1249
00:59:57,000 --> 00:59:59,920
Speaker 5: I got this Cowboys build, Like I'm kind of a

1250
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,520
Speaker 5: joining some of these Javonte teams. You know, It's it's

1251
01:00:02,520 --> 01:00:04,480
Speaker 5: not as clear cut, I think, as it would have

1252
01:00:04,520 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 5: been if you had like what can you get now

1253
01:00:06,960 --> 01:00:08,040
Speaker 5: versus what can you get later?

1254
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:08,840
Speaker 2: It used to be.

1255
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:12,040
Speaker 5: I think at running back there was upside available later,

1256
01:00:12,120 --> 01:00:14,040
Speaker 5: and I'm hopeful that maybe we get some of that

1257
01:00:14,080 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 5: in August. We have some guys emerge there could be

1258
01:00:17,360 --> 01:00:19,240
Speaker 5: some injuries, there could be some shake ups, There could

1259
01:00:19,280 --> 01:00:21,800
Speaker 5: be like a suspension or something, and we do have

1260
01:00:21,880 --> 01:00:24,160
Speaker 5: guys maybe in round twelve, but we're like, yeah, this

1261
01:00:24,240 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 5: dude looks like a potential league winner, and that changes

1262
01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:29,439
Speaker 5: up what I'm doing early. Probably it's more like next

1263
01:00:29,520 --> 01:00:31,680
Speaker 5: year when we have good rookie running backs again and

1264
01:00:31,720 --> 01:00:34,240
Speaker 5: we can go back to But I want to build

1265
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,360
Speaker 5: for the environment that I'm in, right, I don't want

1266
01:00:36,400 --> 01:00:39,400
Speaker 5: to just build based on what worked in a different environment.

1267
01:00:39,680 --> 01:00:42,640
Speaker 3: Yeah. I mean, look, I think that Montgomery and Williams

1268
01:00:42,680 --> 01:00:45,120
Speaker 3: types were a little bit easier to arbitrage back in

1269
01:00:45,160 --> 01:00:47,680
Speaker 3: the day. Like it was just like not as because

1270
01:00:47,800 --> 01:00:49,960
Speaker 3: not that they would have the player that we'd arbitrage

1271
01:00:50,000 --> 01:00:52,320
Speaker 3: with would have like projectible volume in the same way,

1272
01:00:52,360 --> 01:00:54,640
Speaker 3: but they had outa that volume.

1273
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:59,160
Speaker 5: Exactly, yeah, exactly, the hit rates lower on the volume,

1274
01:00:59,320 --> 01:01:02,320
Speaker 5: but also people or overestimating that the hit rate that

1275
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:03,720
Speaker 5: that player will hold the volume.

1276
01:01:03,840 --> 01:01:05,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, and then I've.

1277
01:01:05,640 --> 01:01:07,640
Speaker 5: Got a guy who might earn volume over the course

1278
01:01:07,640 --> 01:01:10,080
Speaker 5: of the year because he's good. But again, as he

1279
01:01:10,120 --> 01:01:12,840
Speaker 5: talked about, like Travon Henderson going at the four or

1280
01:01:12,840 --> 01:01:16,520
Speaker 5: five turn, and I'm not even drafting him is crazy

1281
01:01:16,560 --> 01:01:18,880
Speaker 5: to me. I'm like, What's what's happened to the game?

1282
01:01:18,960 --> 01:01:21,680
Speaker 2: I love? He used to this guy should be a seventh.

1283
01:01:21,520 --> 01:01:23,680
Speaker 5: Round pick, and I should be telling everyone they're crazy

1284
01:01:23,920 --> 01:01:26,080
Speaker 5: for not taking with the four or five turn right,

1285
01:01:26,200 --> 01:01:29,080
Speaker 5: Like it's it's I don't have a lot of Trevion Henderson.

1286
01:01:29,760 --> 01:01:31,720
Speaker 2: I'm a huge Drake May guy. I want to invest

1287
01:01:31,760 --> 01:01:32,600
Speaker 2: in the Patriots.

1288
01:01:32,960 --> 01:01:37,040
Speaker 5: And yet I'm like, I don't know how in a

1289
01:01:37,080 --> 01:01:39,520
Speaker 5: format where like I'm not picking my starters and I'm

1290
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:40,880
Speaker 5: not just kind of putting him on the bench for

1291
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 5: a few weeks until he takes the job, Like, and

1292
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:46,320
Speaker 5: I kind of want my early picks to contribute all

1293
01:01:46,400 --> 01:01:47,200
Speaker 5: year ideally.

1294
01:01:47,840 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's not a lot.

1295
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:52,800
Speaker 5: Yeah, he might hurt my advance rate pretty meaningfully compared

1296
01:01:52,800 --> 01:01:54,520
Speaker 5: to some of these other, you know, guys that are

1297
01:01:54,560 --> 01:01:56,880
Speaker 5: available in the same range, Like Cam Scattabo is another

1298
01:01:56,920 --> 01:01:59,280
Speaker 5: second year guy, and he if he's healthy, he should

1299
01:01:59,560 --> 01:02:01,920
Speaker 5: He's gonna get a ton of work all year. So

1300
01:02:02,520 --> 01:02:04,520
Speaker 5: it's and like he's a good pass catcher, he's good

1301
01:02:04,520 --> 01:02:06,640
Speaker 5: at the goal line, so yeah, I mean, it's just

1302
01:02:07,280 --> 01:02:11,240
Speaker 5: the profiles that used to be kind of systemically undervalued

1303
01:02:11,880 --> 01:02:14,200
Speaker 5: are not being undervalued right now. One other thing I

1304
01:02:14,240 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 5: should note about it being June, though, is that the

1305
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:19,960
Speaker 5: people in these draft rooms are not going to be

1306
01:02:20,160 --> 01:02:22,840
Speaker 5: the exact same people later. They will literally just be

1307
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:26,040
Speaker 5: different drafters in August that aren't drafting right now, And

1308
01:02:26,120 --> 01:02:29,560
Speaker 5: those people I'm hoping feel differently about Trevon Henderson and

1309
01:02:29,560 --> 01:02:31,480
Speaker 5: the people that are drafting right now, because I would

1310
01:02:31,480 --> 01:02:34,560
Speaker 5: really like some like sixth round, seventh round, Trevion Henders.

1311
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:37,520
Speaker 3: You recognize the upside like you recognize exactly exist.

1312
01:02:37,680 --> 01:02:40,360
Speaker 5: Yeah, of course, one hundred percent, Yeah, one hundred percent.

1313
01:02:40,680 --> 01:02:42,720
Speaker 5: I just don't want to pay quite as much as

1314
01:02:42,720 --> 01:02:44,720
Speaker 5: I'm paying now. And that would be another thing like

1315
01:02:44,880 --> 01:02:47,920
Speaker 5: I talked about, like you know, round twelve or whatever,

1316
01:02:48,360 --> 01:02:51,160
Speaker 5: round sixteen, some running backs opening up. But even if

1317
01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:53,240
Speaker 5: it was something like at the I know, at the

1318
01:02:53,240 --> 01:02:55,560
Speaker 5: six seventh turn, I can reliably get Base Sholtoton and

1319
01:02:55,560 --> 01:02:58,480
Speaker 5: Trevion Henderson, that would change the way I'm drafting.

1320
01:02:58,200 --> 01:03:03,680
Speaker 3: To yeah, exactly exactly. I feel similarly in a way

1321
01:03:04,120 --> 01:03:07,920
Speaker 3: to what's gone on with quarterback where you know, obviously

1322
01:03:07,920 --> 01:03:10,160
Speaker 3: you have like Josh Allen's kind of like in his

1323
01:03:10,240 --> 01:03:12,800
Speaker 3: own area, and I love you your take on Allen

1324
01:03:12,840 --> 01:03:14,960
Speaker 3: and how frequently you're getting him and all that kind

1325
01:03:14,960 --> 01:03:20,200
Speaker 3: of stuff. But the crazy thing with quarterback is that historically,

1326
01:03:20,400 --> 01:03:22,760
Speaker 3: like if you were to like really dig into like

1327
01:03:23,040 --> 01:03:26,120
Speaker 3: middle round QB type data, like I'm talking like QB

1328
01:03:26,240 --> 01:03:28,520
Speaker 3: six to ten ish, you know, in that range, or

1329
01:03:28,560 --> 01:03:30,320
Speaker 3: like QB four to ten, whatever the case may be,

1330
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:34,920
Speaker 3: especially like pocket passer guys, like they've been like relatively

1331
01:03:35,040 --> 01:03:38,000
Speaker 3: not great bets. But the difference in what I saw

1332
01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:41,280
Speaker 3: I saw this last year too, happening very frequently, especially

1333
01:03:41,280 --> 01:03:45,160
Speaker 3: on DK, is definitely happening this year. But again it's

1334
01:03:45,200 --> 01:03:48,520
Speaker 3: what can you get later? And with the later round

1335
01:03:48,560 --> 01:03:52,520
Speaker 3: guys continuously being pushed up because of what's probably a

1336
01:03:52,520 --> 01:03:55,320
Speaker 3: scarcity thing in people's eyes, right, Like they're they don't

1337
01:03:55,320 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 3: want to fall behind, and they're worried about not getting

1338
01:03:57,760 --> 01:04:00,760
Speaker 3: that player, and then that just slowly, slowly at these guys,

1339
01:04:01,080 --> 01:04:04,320
Speaker 3: ADP is getting higher and higher. But when that happens,

1340
01:04:04,800 --> 01:04:08,960
Speaker 3: it does make the players, the you know, the Burrows

1341
01:04:09,000 --> 01:04:12,040
Speaker 3: of the world, be easier to click because you're only

1342
01:04:12,280 --> 01:04:15,120
Speaker 3: there's only a two round gap between him to the

1343
01:04:15,160 --> 01:04:18,160
Speaker 3: next tier or two of quarterback. And so I guess

1344
01:04:18,160 --> 01:04:20,960
Speaker 3: my question to you is how you're approaching quarterback? Are

1345
01:04:21,000 --> 01:04:22,120
Speaker 3: you fading Josh Allen?

1346
01:04:22,520 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 2: You know?

1347
01:04:22,800 --> 01:04:25,080
Speaker 3: Is that typically the way that you approach things? And

1348
01:04:25,240 --> 01:04:26,680
Speaker 3: do you see the same thing that I'm seeing in

1349
01:04:26,720 --> 01:04:29,760
Speaker 3: the way that the quarterback landscape has kind of come together?

1350
01:04:30,160 --> 01:04:34,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I am fading Josh Allen pretty aggressively. The market

1351
01:04:34,080 --> 01:04:37,640
Speaker 5: seems to be indicating Josh Allen is like twice as

1352
01:04:37,640 --> 01:04:40,600
Speaker 5: good as the next best quarterback. Like there's a huge

1353
01:04:40,640 --> 01:04:43,439
Speaker 5: there's one elite quarterback in the NFL, and it's Josh

1354
01:04:43,480 --> 01:04:47,440
Speaker 5: Allen and everyone else is kind of like expensive versions

1355
01:04:47,640 --> 01:04:50,920
Speaker 5: of you know, the kind of the pocket passer archetype. Yeah,

1356
01:04:50,960 --> 01:04:54,680
Speaker 5: but that's like not true at all. Yeah, like Lamar Jackson,

1357
01:04:54,880 --> 01:04:58,560
Speaker 5: Jaden Daniels, Like Drake May was outscoring Josh Allen in

1358
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:01,240
Speaker 5: the Fantasy playoffs last year. Yeah, right, And he just

1359
01:05:01,280 --> 01:05:03,760
Speaker 5: got aj Brown and he got Romeo Dobbs, who is

1360
01:05:03,800 --> 01:05:06,440
Speaker 5: also an upgrade, and he has Trevon Anderson going in

1361
01:05:06,440 --> 01:05:08,280
Speaker 5: his second year and it is very explosive last year.

1362
01:05:08,280 --> 01:05:11,760
Speaker 5: Like there's so many ways that this offense could get

1363
01:05:11,840 --> 01:05:15,080
Speaker 5: better and be you know, still very much built around

1364
01:05:15,160 --> 01:05:15,680
Speaker 5: Drake May.

1365
01:05:16,640 --> 01:05:17,000
Speaker 4: I don't.

1366
01:05:17,040 --> 01:05:20,240
Speaker 5: I don't twenty six ADP for Josh Allen and Drake

1367
01:05:20,280 --> 01:05:22,880
Speaker 5: May's going in the middle of sixth round, Like, I

1368
01:05:22,960 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 5: just won't have Josh Allen then, even.

1369
01:05:24,680 --> 01:05:26,760
Speaker 3: Like Jalen Hurts, who will go in like the late

1370
01:05:26,840 --> 01:05:27,439
Speaker 3: seventh At.

1371
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:29,160
Speaker 2: Times one, Hurts is an awesome pick.

1372
01:05:29,280 --> 01:05:31,480
Speaker 3: And I'm like, I'm like, there is a like are

1373
01:05:31,480 --> 01:05:33,840
Speaker 3: the what are the true odds here that Jalen Hurts

1374
01:05:33,840 --> 01:05:36,800
Speaker 3: just straight up out scores Josh Allen this year. It's

1375
01:05:36,800 --> 01:05:39,400
Speaker 3: definitely not the gap that we're seeing right now in

1376
01:05:39,480 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 3: ADP from an odds perspective.

1377
01:05:42,160 --> 01:05:44,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, And like this is a game where you have

1378
01:05:44,640 --> 01:05:47,360
Speaker 5: to advance, then you have to advance again and advance again,

1379
01:05:47,400 --> 01:05:48,840
Speaker 5: and then you have to score the most points in

1380
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:51,160
Speaker 5: week seventeen. And like Hurts because of the the Tousch

1381
01:05:51,200 --> 01:05:52,960
Speaker 5: push has not been banned, Like this is an ADP

1382
01:05:53,000 --> 01:05:54,919
Speaker 5: I would expect if like the Tousch Push had gotten banned.

1383
01:05:55,280 --> 01:05:57,480
Speaker 5: He's barely ahead of dak Now, who I think is

1384
01:05:57,480 --> 01:06:02,080
Speaker 5: also decent enough pick. But Hurts is a crazy good value,

1385
01:06:02,280 --> 01:06:04,360
Speaker 5: Like in a given week, he can he can explode

1386
01:06:04,400 --> 01:06:06,880
Speaker 5: because of his ability to score touchdowns.

1387
01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:09,000
Speaker 2: And like they'll be fine.

1388
01:06:09,000 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 5: I know, you know they're losing Brown, but I think

1389
01:06:11,760 --> 01:06:14,040
Speaker 5: they'll they added Mackay Lemon, who I think is a

1390
01:06:14,160 --> 01:06:17,280
Speaker 5: really good value in his own right and a good player,

1391
01:06:17,360 --> 01:06:21,160
Speaker 5: really good prospect. And they have Eli Stowers, like don't

1392
01:06:21,280 --> 01:06:24,200
Speaker 5: They'll be fine. And they don't have Kevin Batulo, they

1393
01:06:24,240 --> 01:06:26,600
Speaker 5: don't have Kevin Patula. They've got Sean Mannion. Who's they

1394
01:06:26,840 --> 01:06:30,760
Speaker 5: you know, Jordanilotta was saying, he's a wizard. He said,

1395
01:06:30,800 --> 01:06:34,080
Speaker 5: if if I can put three people, the three smartest

1396
01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:37,600
Speaker 5: people in a room, Sean would be in there. Actually

1397
01:06:37,640 --> 01:06:41,360
Speaker 5: probably only be Sean, That's what he said. He couldn't

1398
01:06:41,360 --> 01:06:42,479
Speaker 5: think of another smart coach.

1399
01:06:44,360 --> 01:06:46,800
Speaker 3: But you know, it's amazing that that team has won

1400
01:06:46,840 --> 01:06:49,120
Speaker 3: two super Bowls in the last ten years or whatever.

1401
01:06:49,320 --> 01:06:52,400
Speaker 3: Like the way they talk about their coaching stabs and stuff,

1402
01:06:52,560 --> 01:06:54,800
Speaker 3: the way we've seen like Sirianni do, Like.

1403
01:06:55,320 --> 01:06:59,680
Speaker 2: No, it's crazy, Howie man, how he knows his stuff.

1404
01:07:00,280 --> 01:07:02,880
Speaker 5: But uh yeah, I mean this offense is a bounce

1405
01:07:02,960 --> 01:07:06,120
Speaker 5: back Canadate. I feel good about that. I feel really

1406
01:07:06,120 --> 01:07:08,560
Speaker 5: good about the ROC higher. I think I think they'll improve.

1407
01:07:09,200 --> 01:07:12,640
Speaker 2: And yet and you have a rushing quarterback who specifically

1408
01:07:12,680 --> 01:07:16,560
Speaker 2: scores rushing touchdowns and he's available past you know, pick

1409
01:07:16,600 --> 01:07:18,960
Speaker 2: seventy five and if anything, it seems to me that

1410
01:07:18,960 --> 01:07:22,040
Speaker 2: he's falling on DraftKings. It's yes, it's bizarre.

1411
01:07:21,880 --> 01:07:25,280
Speaker 3: Yes, and so like like and then that next group too,

1412
01:07:25,360 --> 01:07:27,200
Speaker 3: like justin Herbert has crazy.

1413
01:07:26,960 --> 01:07:28,720
Speaker 2: Upside and he's in the eighties.

1414
01:07:29,000 --> 01:07:32,080
Speaker 3: You're right right to me, it just means even like,

1415
01:07:32,080 --> 01:07:35,440
Speaker 3: like I I understand like Lamar in round especially when

1416
01:07:35,480 --> 01:07:37,600
Speaker 3: he falls to like the five to six turn and stuff,

1417
01:07:37,600 --> 01:07:40,200
Speaker 3: because you're starting to get to you're starting to get

1418
01:07:40,200 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 3: in that like opportunity cost range where it's a little

1419
01:07:42,360 --> 01:07:44,800
Speaker 3: bit if you especially if like the room is sharp

1420
01:07:44,880 --> 01:07:47,280
Speaker 3: enough and taking the right running backs and wide receivers

1421
01:07:47,440 --> 01:07:49,960
Speaker 3: by the time you're making that pick. So like, I

1422
01:07:49,960 --> 01:07:51,680
Speaker 3: get it because I think that he I mean, he

1423
01:07:51,760 --> 01:07:55,360
Speaker 3: obviously can match Slash exceeed Josh Allen pretty easily, right,

1424
01:07:55,800 --> 01:07:57,080
Speaker 3: despite what he did last year.

1425
01:07:57,360 --> 01:08:00,520
Speaker 2: But it does another OC change that's exciting right.

1426
01:08:00,480 --> 01:08:02,720
Speaker 3: Right right, But like even you know, Jaydon Daniels is

1427
01:08:02,760 --> 01:08:04,480
Speaker 3: upside and all these guys have upside. And then and

1428
01:08:04,520 --> 01:08:07,920
Speaker 3: then you look at like the the quarterbacks that you

1429
01:08:07,960 --> 01:08:11,320
Speaker 3: know we used to get in like round seventeen, right

1430
01:08:11,400 --> 01:08:14,760
Speaker 3: that we like literally would you know you would never

1431
01:08:14,760 --> 01:08:16,799
Speaker 3: play in a season long league or be excited about.

1432
01:08:16,880 --> 01:08:19,559
Speaker 3: But those guys are like round twelve picks now, and

1433
01:08:20,120 --> 01:08:22,559
Speaker 3: when you shrink that gap, it makes the guys at

1434
01:08:22,560 --> 01:08:24,960
Speaker 3: the top more appealing than they otherwise would be because

1435
01:08:24,960 --> 01:08:27,240
Speaker 3: there isn't that discount late. It's similar to what you

1436
01:08:27,240 --> 01:08:29,120
Speaker 3: were talking about with running back. The difference is that, like,

1437
01:08:29,120 --> 01:08:31,960
Speaker 3: instead of running back just being drafted earlier, running back

1438
01:08:32,000 --> 01:08:33,760
Speaker 3: is just being drafted in a smarter.

1439
01:08:33,560 --> 01:08:34,639
Speaker 2: Way, right right.

1440
01:08:35,120 --> 01:08:38,400
Speaker 3: Quarterback is just being drafted earlier than it was before.

1441
01:08:39,000 --> 01:08:41,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, and then you have like Kyler Murray,

1442
01:08:41,920 --> 01:08:44,760
Speaker 5: like got bench last year, and you know there's some

1443
01:08:44,840 --> 01:08:47,240
Speaker 5: real risk there, but he's also a rushing quarterback, and

1444
01:08:47,400 --> 01:08:50,800
Speaker 5: Kevin O'Connell offense with Justin Jefferson and other pretty good

1445
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:52,800
Speaker 5: pass catchers like that could go well.

1446
01:08:53,400 --> 01:08:56,479
Speaker 2: You know, he's he's still available outside the top one

1447
01:08:56,520 --> 01:08:57,200
Speaker 2: hundred picks.

1448
01:08:57,439 --> 01:08:57,799
Speaker 3: Yeah.

1449
01:08:57,840 --> 01:09:01,439
Speaker 5: Patrick Mahomes, who's to go down as a Hall of

1450
01:09:01,479 --> 01:09:04,519
Speaker 5: Fame quarterback, you know, one of the best to ever

1451
01:09:04,640 --> 01:09:08,400
Speaker 5: do it, is available outside the top ninety picks. And

1452
01:09:08,640 --> 01:09:11,840
Speaker 5: everything about his rehab has been very bullish so far.

1453
01:09:11,880 --> 01:09:14,880
Speaker 5: I mean, he's participating in seven on seven right now.

1454
01:09:15,240 --> 01:09:17,080
Speaker 5: He's not doing eleven on elevens and they're not doing

1455
01:09:17,120 --> 01:09:19,120
Speaker 5: like motions, so no one runs into him. But like

1456
01:09:19,600 --> 01:09:22,360
Speaker 5: he literally hit Xavier Worthy on a deep pass and

1457
01:09:22,360 --> 01:09:25,439
Speaker 5: then skip to the sideline like going nuts. Like he's

1458
01:09:25,960 --> 01:09:28,639
Speaker 5: looking pretty healthy. He looking pretty good for week one.

1459
01:09:29,040 --> 01:09:31,080
Speaker 5: Maybe he doesn't even play week one, maybe he misses

1460
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:33,760
Speaker 5: the first few games, but like he can easily pay

1461
01:09:33,800 --> 01:09:36,200
Speaker 5: off this ADP even if that happens because of the

1462
01:09:36,240 --> 01:09:39,480
Speaker 5: way these tournaments work, Like get you get Patrick Mahomes

1463
01:09:40,040 --> 01:09:44,280
Speaker 5: back as Patrick Mahomes in weeks fifteen, sixteen, and seventeen,

1464
01:09:44,280 --> 01:09:47,519
Speaker 5: where all the money is and you spent pick ninety

1465
01:09:47,720 --> 01:09:51,080
Speaker 5: on him versus a guy who spent a third round

1466
01:09:51,120 --> 01:09:53,360
Speaker 5: pick maybe second round pick on Josh Allen. Like the

1467
01:09:53,360 --> 01:09:56,200
Speaker 5: opportunity cost for those two picks is so so different,

1468
01:09:56,280 --> 01:10:00,000
Speaker 5: especially everything we talked about with smarter pricing at running back. Yeah,

1469
01:10:00,320 --> 01:10:04,360
Speaker 5: it's just like so crazy. I just don't really understand

1470
01:10:04,920 --> 01:10:08,519
Speaker 5: the quarterback pricing. I think there's a lot of there's

1471
01:10:08,560 --> 01:10:11,120
Speaker 5: a lot of opportunities at quarterback this year that are atypical.

1472
01:10:11,280 --> 01:10:14,519
Speaker 5: Like I think the quarterback market generally is pretty efficient,

1473
01:10:14,560 --> 01:10:17,200
Speaker 5: Like at least it has been pretty efficient. Yeah, I

1474
01:10:17,240 --> 01:10:19,720
Speaker 5: haven't had huge, huge stands at quarterback I mean a

1475
01:10:19,720 --> 01:10:21,600
Speaker 5: couple years ago and Drake May was going in the

1476
01:10:21,640 --> 01:10:23,240
Speaker 5: final rounds, I had a big stand on him. But

1477
01:10:24,080 --> 01:10:26,800
Speaker 5: it's it's been harder generally to have giant stands at

1478
01:10:26,840 --> 01:10:32,080
Speaker 5: quarterback because you're stacking, you know, more or less like

1479
01:10:32,120 --> 01:10:35,360
Speaker 5: we're pricing the guys who run, you know, pretty efficiently.

1480
01:10:35,400 --> 01:10:37,519
Speaker 5: But it doesn't feel as efficient to me this year.

1481
01:10:37,560 --> 01:10:39,680
Speaker 5: I don't I don't know why this is happening, but

1482
01:10:39,720 --> 01:10:41,559
Speaker 5: I am trying to take advantage of it.

1483
01:10:42,240 --> 01:10:44,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I mean like and also I guess one

1484
01:10:44,439 --> 01:10:46,280
Speaker 3: more question about because this ties in the tight end

1485
01:10:46,280 --> 01:10:49,360
Speaker 3: as well. But I think the fear that I would

1486
01:10:49,439 --> 01:10:52,240
Speaker 3: have as like if I were you know, like I'll

1487
01:10:52,280 --> 01:10:54,679
Speaker 3: still say I'm a fair I'm an amateur best ball

1488
01:10:54,800 --> 01:10:57,360
Speaker 3: bro at this point, but like, you know, this is

1489
01:10:57,360 --> 01:10:59,599
Speaker 3: maybe playing Devil's Advocate a little bit with the early

1490
01:10:59,720 --> 01:11:02,040
Speaker 3: round height ending quarterbacks. So you get Josh. Let's just

1491
01:11:02,040 --> 01:11:04,439
Speaker 3: put Josh Allen and brock Bauers together, right, so you

1492
01:11:04,439 --> 01:11:07,160
Speaker 3: can get Josh Allen the third, brock Bauers in the

1493
01:11:07,160 --> 01:11:10,519
Speaker 3: second if you fade those players, and it sounds like

1494
01:11:10,560 --> 01:11:11,880
Speaker 3: you and I are on the same page with which

1495
01:11:11,920 --> 01:11:15,240
Speaker 3: one we would be fading way more. Yeah, right, if

1496
01:11:15,240 --> 01:11:18,559
Speaker 3: you're fading those guys, do you have the fear of

1497
01:11:19,160 --> 01:11:22,240
Speaker 3: the nuclear game in the playoffs that just completely destroy you?

1498
01:11:22,920 --> 01:11:26,760
Speaker 3: Or are you simply okay with playing probability and just

1499
01:11:26,800 --> 01:11:29,760
Speaker 3: being logical and saying, look, if Josh Allen puts up

1500
01:11:29,760 --> 01:11:33,040
Speaker 3: a fifty burger in Week sixteen and I just don't

1501
01:11:33,080 --> 01:11:36,080
Speaker 3: have that, but my advance rates are really strong. That's

1502
01:11:36,120 --> 01:11:37,160
Speaker 3: just the way this game goes.

1503
01:11:37,520 --> 01:11:39,960
Speaker 5: That's basically where I'm at on Josh Allen, and it's

1504
01:11:40,000 --> 01:11:43,080
Speaker 5: a position where I can get a thirty burger from

1505
01:11:43,080 --> 01:11:45,800
Speaker 5: someone else. Yeah, I didn't have a ton of Kyle

1506
01:11:45,800 --> 01:11:49,559
Speaker 5: Pitts last year. He went nuts in Week sixteen. I

1507
01:11:49,560 --> 01:11:51,840
Speaker 5: got teams through to the finals without Kyle Pitts. Yeah,

1508
01:11:52,120 --> 01:11:54,840
Speaker 5: it's not the idea that like Josh Allen will be

1509
01:11:54,880 --> 01:11:57,679
Speaker 5: straight up necessary. I mean maybe if if he puts

1510
01:11:57,760 --> 01:12:01,519
Speaker 5: up like fifty five in the final, yeah he's probably

1511
01:12:01,520 --> 01:12:03,360
Speaker 5: He's probably gonna have a Josh Allen team win it.

1512
01:12:03,520 --> 01:12:06,000
Speaker 3: But you know, but it feels like it's it's it's

1513
01:12:06,040 --> 01:12:10,520
Speaker 3: an easier hill to climb back from with a quarterback

1514
01:12:10,560 --> 01:12:12,680
Speaker 3: doing that than a tight end doing that. Right, like

1515
01:12:12,800 --> 01:12:15,479
Speaker 3: an early round hundred percent percent, and.

1516
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:19,960
Speaker 5: It's it's gonna be hard, like Josh Allen is fighting

1517
01:12:20,000 --> 01:12:23,680
Speaker 5: with one hand tied behind his back, maybe more than

1518
01:12:23,720 --> 01:12:27,640
Speaker 5: one hand from a from an advance rate perspective, Like,

1519
01:12:27,800 --> 01:12:30,719
Speaker 5: you know, the year I won BBM, Mike Evans dropped

1520
01:12:30,760 --> 01:12:33,479
Speaker 5: fifty and he basically just wasn't in the BBM final,

1521
01:12:33,880 --> 01:12:36,280
Speaker 5: Like there weren't enough teams in the BBM final to

1522
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:39,240
Speaker 5: really take advantage of that. Now in the DK final,

1523
01:12:39,240 --> 01:12:42,120
Speaker 5: which is bigger, almost certain Mike Evan's team did win,

1524
01:12:42,720 --> 01:12:44,519
Speaker 5: But it's like it's you know, you got to think

1525
01:12:44,520 --> 01:12:46,720
Speaker 5: about like in some ways, like if I'm doing more

1526
01:12:46,800 --> 01:12:49,839
Speaker 5: higher stake stuff where I'm expecting a smaller final, smaller

1527
01:12:49,880 --> 01:12:52,000
Speaker 5: pods to get through, I'd be even less interested in

1528
01:12:52,040 --> 01:12:54,479
Speaker 5: Josh Allen. It's like there's a good chance that I

1529
01:12:54,520 --> 01:12:57,400
Speaker 5: could Josh Allen could drop fifty and not be in

1530
01:12:57,680 --> 01:13:02,280
Speaker 5: the tournament. I'm playing because he has such a different

1531
01:13:02,720 --> 01:13:06,840
Speaker 5: cost than the other quarterbacks with extremely similar profiles.

1532
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:11,840
Speaker 2: It's not even like upside profiles like Lamar Jackson, Jaden Daniels,

1533
01:13:11,880 --> 01:13:16,760
Speaker 2: Like these are straight up rushing quarterbacks right like they.

1534
01:13:16,720 --> 01:13:18,439
Speaker 3: We're not drafting second year CJ.

1535
01:13:18,560 --> 01:13:18,960
Speaker 2: Stroud.

1536
01:13:19,560 --> 01:13:23,160
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, this isn't a projection. This is just like

1537
01:13:23,240 --> 01:13:26,559
Speaker 5: these dudes, these dudes could like crush. They could easily

1538
01:13:26,600 --> 01:13:29,120
Speaker 5: if Lamar Jackson outscores Josh Allen this year, Like, we're

1539
01:13:29,120 --> 01:13:31,880
Speaker 5: not why would we be surprised, It'd be weird to

1540
01:13:31,920 --> 01:13:35,200
Speaker 5: be surprised. Yeah, you know, And so I just the

1541
01:13:35,280 --> 01:13:37,439
Speaker 5: cost difference of Josh Allen to the rest of the

1542
01:13:37,479 --> 01:13:39,920
Speaker 5: group puts them at a major disadvantage from an advance

1543
01:13:40,000 --> 01:13:42,559
Speaker 5: ray perspective, even before you get into some of the

1544
01:13:43,320 --> 01:13:46,960
Speaker 5: you know, this year's pricing around these I mean, and look,

1545
01:13:47,000 --> 01:13:49,679
Speaker 5: wide receivers are still expensive. This is kind of going

1546
01:13:49,720 --> 01:13:51,519
Speaker 5: back to what I was saying before, like, hey, you know,

1547
01:13:52,240 --> 01:13:55,720
Speaker 5: it isn't twenty twenty. It isn't twenty twenty one where

1548
01:13:55,840 --> 01:13:57,840
Speaker 5: the wide receiver two is in the second round. Like

1549
01:13:58,400 --> 01:14:00,599
Speaker 5: there's six wide receivers off the board in the first

1550
01:14:00,640 --> 01:14:03,280
Speaker 5: twelve picks. Half the first half of the first round

1551
01:14:03,320 --> 01:14:06,439
Speaker 5: is wide receivers. Wide receivers do kind of dry up

1552
01:14:07,160 --> 01:14:09,320
Speaker 5: like they have over the over the past couple of years.

1553
01:14:09,360 --> 01:14:11,639
Speaker 5: It is it is easy to fall behind it receiver

1554
01:14:11,800 --> 01:14:15,439
Speaker 5: and spending a third round pick on on Josh Allen

1555
01:14:15,479 --> 01:14:18,360
Speaker 5: instead of getting you know, our second round pick instead

1556
01:14:18,360 --> 01:14:20,360
Speaker 5: of getting like a J. Brown or you know, you

1557
01:14:20,560 --> 01:14:22,839
Speaker 5: get George Pickens or you know, any of those receivers

1558
01:14:22,840 --> 01:14:26,800
Speaker 5: in the third Nico. Yeah, like that that's a huge

1559
01:14:26,840 --> 01:14:31,800
Speaker 5: opportunity cost and something that by round seven I might

1560
01:14:31,840 --> 01:14:34,720
Speaker 5: be looking at. It's like Jalen Hurts and a J.

1561
01:14:34,920 --> 01:14:41,400
Speaker 5: Brown or Josh Allen and DK metcalf right, right, you know,

1562
01:14:41,840 --> 01:14:46,240
Speaker 5: it's pretty different. Yeah, so that's where I'm thinking, like, Okay,

1563
01:14:46,320 --> 01:14:50,479
Speaker 5: Josh Allen, it's a variant game. Josh Allen might ultimately

1564
01:14:50,520 --> 01:14:53,559
Speaker 5: be the correct answer because he's he's awesome. He is

1565
01:14:53,600 --> 01:14:55,960
Speaker 5: the best quarterback in the league. He has the best

1566
01:14:56,000 --> 01:14:59,559
Speaker 5: chance of going nuclear. But I want to play this

1567
01:14:59,680 --> 01:15:02,960
Speaker 5: season and sharp and not play scared and do what

1568
01:15:03,040 --> 01:15:05,000
Speaker 5: I think the best things I can do for all

1569
01:15:05,000 --> 01:15:05,720
Speaker 5: these prices are.

1570
01:15:05,760 --> 01:15:06,960
Speaker 2: And if Josh.

1571
01:15:06,680 --> 01:15:10,439
Speaker 5: Allen goes absolutely nuts, that's probably gonna suck for me.

1572
01:15:10,560 --> 01:15:12,960
Speaker 5: But he's he's so expensive that it's like it's possible

1573
01:15:12,960 --> 01:15:13,880
Speaker 5: it doesn't even suck for me.

1574
01:15:14,400 --> 01:15:17,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, no, exactly, exactly. No, I'm one hundred percent

1575
01:15:17,880 --> 01:15:19,760
Speaker 3: with you. Before I let you go, give me a

1576
01:15:19,840 --> 01:15:21,680
Speaker 3: give me like a hot take, a truth serum take,

1577
01:15:21,680 --> 01:15:23,559
Speaker 3: if you will, you guys, have have done a lot

1578
01:15:23,560 --> 01:15:25,639
Speaker 3: of those in your day for this season.

1579
01:15:26,200 --> 01:15:30,200
Speaker 5: Yeah, so we've talked about on ship chasing that maybe

1580
01:15:30,240 --> 01:15:32,679
Speaker 5: we do, you know, the kind of the cold sweat

1581
01:15:32,680 --> 01:15:35,720
Speaker 5: take for the for the truth, cause the you know,

1582
01:15:35,760 --> 01:15:37,680
Speaker 5: it's it should be something that like you kind of

1583
01:15:37,720 --> 01:15:44,760
Speaker 5: don't want to happen. Yeah, I guess one thing I'm I'm.

1584
01:15:45,240 --> 01:15:48,920
Speaker 5: One thing that's on my mind is some of these

1585
01:15:49,040 --> 01:15:54,720
Speaker 5: second year running backs maybe mattering more than like I'm

1586
01:15:54,800 --> 01:15:58,479
Speaker 5: thinking they do now, Like you know, people are like

1587
01:15:58,479 --> 01:16:00,800
Speaker 5: what about Jaden Blue, you know, interested in him, the

1588
01:16:00,880 --> 01:16:03,720
Speaker 5: kind of thing like Dylan Sampson, you know, some of

1589
01:16:03,760 --> 01:16:10,720
Speaker 5: these types of guys potentially emerging as surprising playmakers and

1590
01:16:11,240 --> 01:16:14,799
Speaker 5: guys that do shake up like what I'm currently valuing

1591
01:16:14,840 --> 01:16:17,479
Speaker 5: the landscape as like in a way like Tank Bigsby

1592
01:16:17,600 --> 01:16:20,840
Speaker 5: like kind of sucked as a rookie, but like actually

1593
01:16:20,960 --> 01:16:23,880
Speaker 5: was pretty decent in a second season, you know, and

1594
01:16:24,200 --> 01:16:27,400
Speaker 5: paid off a late round ADP there. So it's it's

1595
01:16:27,479 --> 01:16:32,200
Speaker 5: not really a super hot take. But one thing I

1596
01:16:32,240 --> 01:16:34,200
Speaker 5: do I am, I am, I really do have my

1597
01:16:34,320 --> 01:16:37,559
Speaker 5: eye on the potential for running backs. I don't believe

1598
01:16:37,600 --> 01:16:41,240
Speaker 5: in to bubble up into roles or into opportunity or

1599
01:16:41,280 --> 01:16:43,280
Speaker 5: just starting to flash like maybe they've taken a step

1600
01:16:43,840 --> 01:16:46,920
Speaker 5: and they do ultimately shake up this landscape and that

1601
01:16:47,240 --> 01:16:51,799
Speaker 5: June doesn't define the entire twenty twenty six drafting season.

1602
01:16:52,240 --> 01:16:55,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, that makes sense. It's a really good take, Pat,

1603
01:16:55,080 --> 01:16:57,320
Speaker 3: This is awesome. I always love chopping it up with you.

1604
01:16:57,640 --> 01:16:59,960
Speaker 3: Let everyone know where they can find you, what you're

1605
01:17:00,120 --> 01:17:02,799
Speaker 3: working on, the shows you're doing all that stuff.

1606
01:17:03,520 --> 01:17:05,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, so you can check out on the Legendary Upside

1607
01:17:05,360 --> 01:17:09,080
Speaker 5: YouTube channel doing a ton of content and as well

1608
01:17:09,080 --> 01:17:12,280
Speaker 5: as on the podcast Wherever you Get You podcast Legendary

1609
01:17:12,360 --> 01:17:17,080
Speaker 5: Upside Drafting. A lot of teams doing weekly pods with

1610
01:17:17,120 --> 01:17:20,640
Speaker 5: Greg Branos, the Coach Speak Index, Sam Sherman, who on

1611
01:17:20,720 --> 01:17:22,960
Speaker 5: BBM last year doing a show called That's Fair with

1612
01:17:23,040 --> 01:17:24,679
Speaker 5: him reference to our.

1613
01:17:24,560 --> 01:17:25,679
Speaker 2: ADP chasing days.

1614
01:17:26,040 --> 01:17:30,120
Speaker 5: I'm also doing ADP chasing every week every Tuesday evening

1615
01:17:30,520 --> 01:17:34,200
Speaker 5: ship chasing on Wednesdays. I do a show on Tuesday

1616
01:17:34,360 --> 01:17:37,120
Speaker 5: where on the leg up channel where I just take

1617
01:17:37,120 --> 01:17:40,479
Speaker 5: the top recommendation from the sidekick, using the sim driven

1618
01:17:40,479 --> 01:17:43,240
Speaker 5: player recommendations that I talked about before, I just take

1619
01:17:43,280 --> 01:17:44,840
Speaker 5: the top guy so you can kind of see what

1620
01:17:44,880 --> 01:17:49,720
Speaker 5: the sims are viewing is pretty strong teams in this landscape.

1621
01:17:49,840 --> 01:17:51,559
Speaker 5: And then I'm doing a lot of writing and ranking

1622
01:17:51,720 --> 01:17:54,960
Speaker 5: over at Legendary Upside. Legendary Upside dot com you can

1623
01:17:55,080 --> 01:17:57,439
Speaker 5: get all that there. Wrote up the rookie wide receivers.

1624
01:17:57,479 --> 01:18:00,160
Speaker 5: I'm running up the rookie running backs and second your

1625
01:18:00,200 --> 01:18:02,240
Speaker 5: running backs for Best Ball as well. Matt Herby's got

1626
01:18:02,280 --> 01:18:05,840
Speaker 5: some great Dynasty content on the site as well. And

1627
01:18:05,880 --> 01:18:07,720
Speaker 5: then if you want to check out the Sidekick, it's

1628
01:18:07,720 --> 01:18:10,240
Speaker 5: at Legendary Upside dot com slash Sidekick Awesome Man.

1629
01:18:10,720 --> 01:18:13,679
Speaker 3: Definitely check it out. You're pumping out some awesome content

1630
01:18:14,120 --> 01:18:16,080
Speaker 3: and I you know, I obviously I am a big

1631
01:18:16,120 --> 01:18:19,040
Speaker 3: fan of of you, both both on and off the field.

1632
01:18:19,040 --> 01:18:21,800
Speaker 2: Pat, I appreciate that, and likewise.

1633
01:18:21,640 --> 01:18:23,200
Speaker 3: Make sure you check out my stuff over on Late

1634
01:18:23,280 --> 01:18:26,280
Speaker 3: Round dot com. I do have an official release date

1635
01:18:26,320 --> 01:18:28,200
Speaker 3: for the Draft Guide. It's going to be July tenth

1636
01:18:28,240 --> 01:18:30,599
Speaker 3: this year. You know, it's been July first other years,

1637
01:18:30,600 --> 01:18:34,080
Speaker 3: but we had so much chaos with the website rebuild

1638
01:18:34,160 --> 01:18:36,960
Speaker 3: and just so much going on that you know, we

1639
01:18:37,240 --> 01:18:39,600
Speaker 3: moved it back a little bit this year, but that

1640
01:18:39,640 --> 01:18:42,200
Speaker 3: really doesn't change that much because it's a season long

1641
01:18:42,240 --> 01:18:45,080
Speaker 3: guide and it's, you know, just a little bit later

1642
01:18:45,200 --> 01:18:47,920
Speaker 3: than normal. No one's really drafting their season long leagues

1643
01:18:47,920 --> 01:18:51,360
Speaker 3: on July third, anyway, but July tenth is the release date.

1644
01:18:51,400 --> 01:18:53,680
Speaker 3: That's gonna be a Friday as always. If you pre

1645
01:18:53,840 --> 01:18:55,680
Speaker 3: order now, you'll get it at a discount, and then

1646
01:18:55,840 --> 01:18:59,439
Speaker 3: every Friday through August you will get an update to

1647
01:18:59,520 --> 01:19:03,200
Speaker 3: that guy. Check that out Lateround dot com. Otherwise, everyone,

1648
01:19:03,880 --> 01:19:04,559
Speaker 3: thanks for tuning.