1
00:00:00,400 --> 00:00:02,400
Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

2
00:00:03,080 --> 00:00:08,360
Speaker 2: I'mna just mouth that actions all right, Here we go.

3
00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:10,399
Speaker 3: Throwing.

4
00:00:13,080 --> 00:00:15,080
Speaker 2: I'm sitting up to cash to stop.

5
00:00:15,920 --> 00:00:18,920
Speaker 4: We'll see most gambles when they go to gamble, they

6
00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:19,320
Speaker 4: go to win.

7
00:00:20,400 --> 00:00:24,840
Speaker 2: That's incredible. Big bank, small bank. I like to make money.

8
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:28,680
Speaker 2: All right, this is the ultimate kabary you want to pull.

9
00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:35,240
Speaker 3: And we are underway.

10
00:00:36,880 --> 00:00:37,839
Speaker 2: What is up? Everybody?

11
00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:40,760
Speaker 5: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. I'm

12
00:00:40,760 --> 00:00:43,920
Speaker 5: your host, Chris Raybond. It's NFL Week fifteen. We got

13
00:00:43,920 --> 00:00:46,640
Speaker 5: anytime touchdowns for you. I'll be joined in a moment

14
00:00:46,920 --> 00:00:50,599
Speaker 5: by my guys, Sean Kerner and Jill Gallant. Last week

15
00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:53,640
Speaker 5: we hit on a bunch of touchdowns. Te Higgins got two,

16
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:59,160
Speaker 5: Dalton Kinkaid, Rashid Shaheed with the return, Fannin Bucky, Josh

17
00:00:59,160 --> 00:01:03,160
Speaker 5: Oliver got to Woody Marx, Isaac Taslaw of course came through.

18
00:01:03,720 --> 00:01:06,520
Speaker 5: So today we'll go through the week fifteen slate, discuss

19
00:01:06,600 --> 00:01:10,160
Speaker 5: all the Sunday matchups the Monday night as well. We

20
00:01:10,200 --> 00:01:12,560
Speaker 5: track all of these in the Touchdown Show account on

21
00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:15,280
Speaker 5: the Action Network app, so be sure to follow that

22
00:01:15,440 --> 00:01:18,200
Speaker 5: account on the Action app. Go download it if you

23
00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,360
Speaker 5: haven't already, and if you want to tail some of

24
00:01:20,360 --> 00:01:22,120
Speaker 5: the bets, look for the quick slip wink in the

25
00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,760
Speaker 5: podcast video description or go to Action network dot com

26
00:01:24,760 --> 00:01:27,840
Speaker 5: slash bet Now before we get into the touchdowns, I'll

27
00:01:27,880 --> 00:01:30,399
Speaker 5: toss it over to myself for a word from our sponsor.

28
00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:34,440
Speaker 5: The Action Network podcast has teamed up with DraftKings Sportsbook,

29
00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:37,559
Speaker 5: where new customers can bet five dollars and get two

30
00:01:37,640 --> 00:01:40,520
Speaker 5: hundred dollars back in bonus bets if your bet wins.

31
00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:43,319
Speaker 5: If you love the thrill of live betting, DraftKings has

32
00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:46,400
Speaker 5: got you covered. Bet live on star player props and

33
00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,440
Speaker 5: in progress games right as they happen. To get started,

34
00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:53,280
Speaker 5: use promo Code Action Network when signing up with DraftKings. Again,

35
00:01:53,600 --> 00:01:56,200
Speaker 5: use Code Action Network when signing up, and bet five

36
00:01:56,280 --> 00:01:59,360
Speaker 5: bucks to get two hundred back in bonus bets if

37
00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:00,320
Speaker 5: your bet wins.

38
00:02:00,600 --> 00:02:05,720
Speaker 2: The crown is yours? All right, Turner, what's going on?

39
00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,680
Speaker 5: We got you with the charges and the chiefs Man?

40
00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,720
Speaker 5: Seems like kind of an undergame. Maybe be gets the

41
00:02:11,720 --> 00:02:13,880
Speaker 5: points in this one, but those lines have been the

42
00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:17,320
Speaker 5: offensive lines for both teams are kind of decimated. Who

43
00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:18,680
Speaker 5: were looking at in this spot?

44
00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, on the charger side, I'm gonna go with Kamani Videll,

45
00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:26,239
Speaker 3: who's plus five twenty five, and we saw a pretty

46
00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:32,480
Speaker 3: even timeshare with Ameron Hampton returning last week. Luckily it

47
00:02:32,520 --> 00:02:34,079
Speaker 3: was just a two backs too. We didn't see his

48
00:02:34,160 --> 00:02:36,440
Speaker 3: son Haskins mix in at all, so this is at

49
00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:38,240
Speaker 3: least a two week committee. We don't have a third

50
00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,320
Speaker 3: mucking it up. So but if you saw kind of

51
00:02:42,320 --> 00:02:46,440
Speaker 3: the game script, it was pretty even. But Videll, you know,

52
00:02:46,560 --> 00:02:49,079
Speaker 3: tended to see a little bit more work in passing situations,

53
00:02:49,080 --> 00:02:51,600
Speaker 3: and especially once they were in more of a trailing

54
00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,080
Speaker 3: game script in the fourth quarter, they got down twice

55
00:02:54,560 --> 00:02:56,480
Speaker 3: and he was seeing more playing times for the fact

56
00:02:56,480 --> 00:02:58,600
Speaker 3: that their you know, four and a half point road

57
00:02:58,680 --> 00:03:01,959
Speaker 3: dogs here might to Viydell, you know, getting a little

58
00:03:01,960 --> 00:03:05,079
Speaker 3: bit more playing time if that usage sticks. Plus I

59
00:03:05,120 --> 00:03:08,079
Speaker 3: would have to imagine, you know, Herbert won't scramble as

60
00:03:08,200 --> 00:03:10,440
Speaker 3: much here. As kind of insane how often he was

61
00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,280
Speaker 3: scrambling considering I mean, he was just playing for his

62
00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,360
Speaker 3: life out there, and he kept landing on his you know,

63
00:03:15,440 --> 00:03:19,079
Speaker 3: surgery group repaired hands. So hopefully those turn into more

64
00:03:19,120 --> 00:03:23,400
Speaker 3: like checkdowns to Ydell going forward. But I love his

65
00:03:23,480 --> 00:03:27,200
Speaker 3: upside here at plus five twenty five. And then on

66
00:03:27,280 --> 00:03:29,359
Speaker 3: the chief side, I'm going to go with Hollywood Brown

67
00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:33,000
Speaker 3: at plus seven point fifty. And you know, obviously his

68
00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:36,720
Speaker 3: role has been diminished quite a bit with Xavier Worthy

69
00:03:36,760 --> 00:03:40,440
Speaker 3: healthy and Rashid Rice back from suspension, so he's running

70
00:03:40,480 --> 00:03:43,680
Speaker 3: around just under half of Mahomes dropbacks. But you know,

71
00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,680
Speaker 3: both of those targets last week were way downfield. One

72
00:03:46,680 --> 00:03:50,280
Speaker 3: of them got picked off unfortunately, but you know he

73
00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,840
Speaker 3: could catch one of those for a longer touchdown. And

74
00:03:53,240 --> 00:03:56,640
Speaker 3: two weeks ago he saw an end zone target first score,

75
00:03:56,720 --> 00:04:00,240
Speaker 3: so he's at least seeing very high value target when

76
00:04:00,240 --> 00:04:02,920
Speaker 3: it comes to touchdowns despite the limited role. So I'm

77
00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:05,920
Speaker 3: actually you know, projecting him closer to plus six hundred,

78
00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,440
Speaker 3: so like the value we're getting here at plus seven

79
00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:08,880
Speaker 3: to fifty.

80
00:04:09,040 --> 00:04:10,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, Vodalo is my.

81
00:04:12,080 --> 00:04:14,280
Speaker 5: Pick for this show last week, and I got burned

82
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:16,799
Speaker 5: by like one of those process plays because I thought.

83
00:04:16,640 --> 00:04:17,800
Speaker 2: He would remain the number one back.

84
00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:20,960
Speaker 5: He actually out snapped Hampton fifty one to twenty three,

85
00:04:21,080 --> 00:04:23,360
Speaker 5: so it wasn't particularly close. It was just of course,

86
00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:26,080
Speaker 5: Hampton comes in after Verdal busts a long gain and

87
00:04:26,760 --> 00:04:29,159
Speaker 5: needs to breathe, so Hampton gets to touch the easy

88
00:04:29,240 --> 00:04:32,119
Speaker 5: touchdown too. No less that would have probably gone to Badal,

89
00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:34,640
Speaker 5: So I like that. I think that's a sneaky play

90
00:04:34,640 --> 00:04:37,760
Speaker 5: because coach Arbo kind of alluded that Vidal might keep

91
00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:40,440
Speaker 5: that role, So I wouldn't be surprised if Vadal is

92
00:04:40,480 --> 00:04:41,920
Speaker 5: just the number one back again.

93
00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:46,280
Speaker 2: Keep Hampton fresh after the injury. All right, Jill Man,

94
00:04:46,320 --> 00:04:46,920
Speaker 2: how are we feeling?

95
00:04:47,240 --> 00:04:49,640
Speaker 5: I got the Jets and the Jags, so there's at

96
00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:51,279
Speaker 5: least one team that will probably score touchdown.

97
00:04:51,839 --> 00:04:53,480
Speaker 1: I was about to say, I'm feeling pretty good. I

98
00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:56,040
Speaker 1: don't know how much like front to back all watch

99
00:04:56,080 --> 00:04:58,159
Speaker 1: of this game, this one might get relegated to the

100
00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:02,159
Speaker 1: red zone screen. But I would say on the Jets side,

101
00:05:02,440 --> 00:05:05,400
Speaker 1: with Brady Cook at quarterback, it's pretty grim, but I'm

102
00:05:05,400 --> 00:05:07,279
Speaker 1: still going to take a don a Mitchell at four

103
00:05:07,320 --> 00:05:09,240
Speaker 1: to one. Now. I know it didn't score last week,

104
00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,200
Speaker 1: he still had the team with two red zone targets,

105
00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:13,240
Speaker 1: ran the most routes on the team. One of those

106
00:05:13,240 --> 00:05:15,840
Speaker 1: red zone targets was at least after Tyrod Taylor went out,

107
00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:18,240
Speaker 1: so at least Cook was looking for him. And the

108
00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 1: one thing that I've noticed about Mitchell as well is

109
00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:23,000
Speaker 1: they're really trying to get him involved as much as possible.

110
00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,039
Speaker 1: In four games, it's coming over. He leads the team

111
00:05:25,040 --> 00:05:27,839
Speaker 1: in targets for aut run, four end zone targets, and

112
00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,039
Speaker 1: the Jags they played mostly zone defense, a lot of

113
00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:32,839
Speaker 1: two high safety, so that does bode well for Mitchell.

114
00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:36,039
Speaker 1: He does have some good metrics against them, So a

115
00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,440
Speaker 1: Donna Mitchell on the Jets side. On the Jaguars side,

116
00:05:39,480 --> 00:05:41,040
Speaker 1: This is part of the reason why I'm taking this

117
00:05:41,080 --> 00:05:43,000
Speaker 1: is just because the Jets defense has kind of shifted

118
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,560
Speaker 1: the way that they play, because since they traded Sauce

119
00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:48,400
Speaker 1: Gardner and Quinn and Williams, they were very much a

120
00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:51,680
Speaker 1: man heavy team a single high safety. Now they're doing

121
00:05:52,480 --> 00:05:54,839
Speaker 1: you know, they were top five a man coverage rotation

122
00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:57,880
Speaker 1: between single high and high safety, but over the last

123
00:05:57,920 --> 00:06:00,880
Speaker 1: four games, much higher rate of zone emphasis on two

124
00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,680
Speaker 1: high safety. And they're thirty first now in defensive DV

125
00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,320
Speaker 1: way versus tight ends with seven touchdowns allowed. So I'm

126
00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:08,359
Speaker 1: gonna take Brenton Strange here at plus two to fifty

127
00:06:08,400 --> 00:06:11,000
Speaker 1: because he's got the highest target share versus those coverages,

128
00:06:11,240 --> 00:06:13,960
Speaker 1: and the way that the Jets defenses like just crumbling.

129
00:06:14,080 --> 00:06:15,680
Speaker 1: I think that's the guy that you would want on

130
00:06:15,720 --> 00:06:16,799
Speaker 1: the offensive side.

131
00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,640
Speaker 5: Yeah, it tends to be the case right with tight ends.

132
00:06:20,360 --> 00:06:23,400
Speaker 5: Zone coverages are where they usually are gonna eat because

133
00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:25,200
Speaker 5: you know man coverage, you're gonna look for your white

134
00:06:25,200 --> 00:06:29,919
Speaker 5: house down the field. Buffalo, New England. This I'm excited

135
00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,039
Speaker 5: about this game for the Bills. I'm gonna roll with

136
00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,360
Speaker 5: Gabe Davis at plus two to seventy five. Gave Davis

137
00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,640
Speaker 5: has been leading, as jille You pointed out off air,

138
00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:42,839
Speaker 5: he's been leading the Bills in receiving snaps at wide

139
00:06:42,920 --> 00:06:45,840
Speaker 5: receiver over the last couple of games. They picked him

140
00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,000
Speaker 5: up four games ago and I have him for about

141
00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:51,680
Speaker 5: one and a half expected touchdowns over that span. Hasn't

142
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:54,280
Speaker 5: gotten into the end zone yet. New England is one

143
00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:57,440
Speaker 5: of those teams much better against the run than the pass,

144
00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,360
Speaker 5: and they tend to give up a lot to wide

145
00:07:00,440 --> 00:07:03,440
Speaker 5: receivers because they're not afraid to man up, and that's

146
00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:05,760
Speaker 5: been an issue for the Bills. You know, they defenses

147
00:07:06,040 --> 00:07:08,440
Speaker 5: will look to man up their receivers. So I think

148
00:07:08,520 --> 00:07:11,880
Speaker 5: Dave Davis gives Josh Allen a chance down the field

149
00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:13,480
Speaker 5: in some of those one on one matchups. I like

150
00:07:13,560 --> 00:07:17,840
Speaker 5: him at plus two seventy five and for the Patriots

151
00:07:18,000 --> 00:07:21,120
Speaker 5: Drake May at five to one. Bills have been given

152
00:07:21,200 --> 00:07:23,640
Speaker 5: up a lot on the ground for both running backs,

153
00:07:24,000 --> 00:07:27,360
Speaker 5: but they're also giving up some of the highest expected

154
00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:30,760
Speaker 5: touchdown rates to scrambling quarterbacks in the league. So like

155
00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,400
Speaker 5: May here a little more than trying to take you know,

156
00:07:33,520 --> 00:07:36,120
Speaker 5: ramondre Stevenson, who could bumble it out the goal line

157
00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:38,920
Speaker 5: and get benched, and then Trevion sometimes is behind Remandre

158
00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:41,240
Speaker 5: for those goal line looks. But Drake May, you know,

159
00:07:41,600 --> 00:07:44,200
Speaker 5: regardless of the game script, if they are up, you know,

160
00:07:44,480 --> 00:07:47,040
Speaker 5: he could be looked too in the red zone, and

161
00:07:47,080 --> 00:07:49,360
Speaker 5: if they're down, you could always catch a scramble or

162
00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,680
Speaker 5: something like that for him to get in the end zone.

163
00:07:51,680 --> 00:07:54,520
Speaker 5: Wait in the game, even if there's not much you know,

164
00:07:54,640 --> 00:07:57,119
Speaker 5: expected rushing upside at that point.

165
00:07:57,160 --> 00:07:59,920
Speaker 2: So I like Drake May here at five to one.

166
00:08:00,320 --> 00:08:01,840
Speaker 2: For New England.

167
00:08:03,040 --> 00:08:09,640
Speaker 5: Cardinals Texans kerner Jacoby Brissett almost got home on that

168
00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:13,560
Speaker 5: triple crown last week, but you know, just short, I

169
00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,440
Speaker 5: didn't get it in the end zone that last time.

170
00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,360
Speaker 5: But how were feeling about the Cardinals and the Texans

171
00:08:19,360 --> 00:08:19,800
Speaker 5: in this one?

172
00:08:20,120 --> 00:08:21,920
Speaker 3: Yeah? I love the fact that I got this matchup.

173
00:08:21,960 --> 00:08:24,280
Speaker 3: I actually liked both of these, and yeah, Blake Korum

174
00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:26,520
Speaker 3: was like the long shot of that leg and he

175
00:08:26,640 --> 00:08:29,720
Speaker 3: was the easiest cash of it all. So but yeah,

176
00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,480
Speaker 3: I'm going to actually take Jacoby Brissett himself to score

177
00:08:32,520 --> 00:08:36,720
Speaker 3: here at plus nine point fifty. Obviously, he's been lighting

178
00:08:36,720 --> 00:08:39,640
Speaker 3: it up through the air the last a games after

179
00:08:39,679 --> 00:08:42,480
Speaker 3: taking over for Kyler Murray, who's you know, been out

180
00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,000
Speaker 3: due to a foot injury that the new call of

181
00:08:45,080 --> 00:08:48,240
Speaker 3: duty came out, and Bursett's just been playing better. So

182
00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:51,040
Speaker 3: I don't think like this is Kyler Murray's job. When

183
00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,760
Speaker 3: he's healthy. They're already talking about potentially moving on next year.

184
00:08:53,840 --> 00:08:56,440
Speaker 3: So he's been tearing it up. But this is a

185
00:08:56,480 --> 00:09:00,000
Speaker 3: brutal matchup against the Texans, so I think he's fine.

186
00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:01,040
Speaker 2: I'm only going to slow.

187
00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:03,600
Speaker 3: Down a bit here through the air should be under

188
00:09:03,679 --> 00:09:07,600
Speaker 3: heavy pressure, but he has plenty of rushing upside when

189
00:09:07,640 --> 00:09:09,720
Speaker 3: he needs to, so I could see him scrambling a

190
00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:12,760
Speaker 3: bit more here, especially you know, once they get closer

191
00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:16,160
Speaker 3: to the you know, red zone if everyone's covered, might

192
00:09:16,280 --> 00:09:18,520
Speaker 3: be more willing to use his legs here. So I'm

193
00:09:18,520 --> 00:09:22,720
Speaker 3: actually projecting him closer to plus eight thirty. So love

194
00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,560
Speaker 3: the value here at plus nine p fifty. And on

195
00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:28,000
Speaker 3: the other side, gonna have to stick with my guy,

196
00:09:28,200 --> 00:09:32,600
Speaker 3: Jaden Higgins at plus three ten. Second round rookie I

197
00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:35,400
Speaker 3: was high on who got off to a really slow start,

198
00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:38,120
Speaker 3: but he's been trending up of late, just continuing to

199
00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,440
Speaker 3: draw a massive target rate. He's seeing around a thirty

200
00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:45,720
Speaker 3: percent target rate on his routes run the last five games.

201
00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:48,800
Speaker 3: Just the main issue with him is his playing time

202
00:09:48,880 --> 00:09:52,840
Speaker 3: still kept right around fifty five percent, So I'm projecting

203
00:09:53,200 --> 00:09:56,240
Speaker 3: still closer to plus two fifty if that holds, and

204
00:09:56,280 --> 00:09:58,400
Speaker 3: I think it's more likely that we're going to see

205
00:09:58,400 --> 00:10:01,200
Speaker 3: his routes rate go up than down going forward, So

206
00:10:01,240 --> 00:10:04,640
Speaker 3: if anything, there's even more value here. So love Higgins

207
00:10:04,640 --> 00:10:05,480
Speaker 3: at plus three ten.

208
00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:10,400
Speaker 5: Here Xavier Hutchinson's route rate has been creeping down and

209
00:10:10,640 --> 00:10:13,480
Speaker 5: I think that that should continue hopefully. I know Higgins,

210
00:10:13,559 --> 00:10:15,040
Speaker 5: you know, started the year, it was kind of a

211
00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:19,920
Speaker 5: personnel specific, you know, role by the by the Texans

212
00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:21,959
Speaker 5: where he would be in certain personnel groups and not

213
00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:23,480
Speaker 5: in others. But I think they would want to kind

214
00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:25,760
Speaker 5: of get him in everything as they prepare.

215
00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:27,240
Speaker 2: You would think to make a playoff run. But you

216
00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:28,319
Speaker 2: would think, right, yeah.

217
00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:31,080
Speaker 3: Justin Watson's back this week, so they'll probably throw him

218
00:10:31,080 --> 00:10:34,840
Speaker 3: out there. So everybody's closer to thirty percent route run rate, right,

219
00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:36,320
Speaker 3: That's kind of how they've been doing things.

220
00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:41,240
Speaker 5: Then they did they did deactivate Braxton Burrios, so maybe

221
00:10:41,280 --> 00:10:45,480
Speaker 5: there's hope for them deactivating Watson as well. Just rolling

222
00:10:45,520 --> 00:10:48,280
Speaker 5: with the guys they have out there, or just deactivate Hutchinson,

223
00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:48,680
Speaker 5: like jeez.

224
00:10:49,000 --> 00:10:57,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, Ravens at Bengals Jill just two teams that know

225
00:10:57,400 --> 00:10:59,800
Speaker 4: how to suffer excruciating losses.

226
00:10:59,800 --> 00:11:02,120
Speaker 5: But the games are usually interesting. There's usually a bunch

227
00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:04,480
Speaker 5: of touchdowns. How we feeling about this one?

228
00:11:05,120 --> 00:11:07,560
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like when the Bengals play, the

229
00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:10,040
Speaker 1: potential for a shootout is just through the roof, doesn't

230
00:11:10,080 --> 00:11:14,800
Speaker 1: matter who the opponent is. On the Raven side, I

231
00:11:14,840 --> 00:11:16,560
Speaker 1: think we have to keep sticking with the tight end.

232
00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:18,439
Speaker 1: We're gonna go with Isaiah Likelee, here is a round

233
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:22,480
Speaker 1: plus two forty and frankly, it's just the Bengals defense

234
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,720
Speaker 1: is just horrendous versus tight ends. Fifteen touchdowns allowed. That

235
00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:28,880
Speaker 1: leads the next closest is nine in the NFL. At

236
00:11:28,920 --> 00:11:31,280
Speaker 1: the thirty first team a tight end has scored against

237
00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,360
Speaker 1: them and six of the last seven games. The lone

238
00:11:33,360 --> 00:11:36,080
Speaker 1: miss was actually Isaiah Likely who fumbled into the end

239
00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:39,920
Speaker 1: zone and he should technically have three touchdowns over the

240
00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:42,320
Speaker 1: last two games. Just so much touchdown drama with this

241
00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:45,400
Speaker 1: guy in his career. But since Lamar has come back

242
00:11:45,440 --> 00:11:47,280
Speaker 1: in Week nine, he leads the team in targets per

243
00:11:47,360 --> 00:11:49,880
Speaker 1: route run and he's going to be a tougher matchup

244
00:11:49,920 --> 00:11:52,360
Speaker 1: for the Bengals. The other thing, too, that I've noticed

245
00:11:52,400 --> 00:11:54,640
Speaker 1: is the Bengals defense since Burrow has come back, has

246
00:11:54,679 --> 00:11:57,719
Speaker 1: switched to a far heavier man coverage approach compared to

247
00:11:57,760 --> 00:11:59,600
Speaker 1: when they were playing a lot of his own earlier

248
00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,040
Speaker 1: in the year, and Likely he's just done well against

249
00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,240
Speaker 1: those coverages. So I think, if anything, you just got

250
00:12:04,280 --> 00:12:05,520
Speaker 1: to take a tight end. If you want to take

251
00:12:05,559 --> 00:12:07,600
Speaker 1: Mark Andrews up plus two to sixty, you can. But

252
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,679
Speaker 1: Isaiah Likely, I think it's the guy we want here.

253
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,280
Speaker 1: But Raybon, I think we're back here because even though

254
00:12:12,480 --> 00:12:16,679
Speaker 1: this is Thursday night, T Higgins is technically practice Wednesday

255
00:12:16,679 --> 00:12:18,280
Speaker 1: and Thursday. I don't think he's going to come back

256
00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:21,280
Speaker 1: for this week. Raybon, we're back. We're taking Mitchell Tinsley

257
00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:23,480
Speaker 1: here at four to one. And the last time Higgins

258
00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:25,720
Speaker 1: was out, and that was against the Patriots, we were

259
00:12:25,760 --> 00:12:27,600
Speaker 1: all over him at plus four fifty and what did

260
00:12:27,600 --> 00:12:30,040
Speaker 1: he do? A nice one handed touchdown, you know, to

261
00:12:30,040 --> 00:12:31,920
Speaker 1: score it. And that was probably his only his second

262
00:12:31,960 --> 00:12:34,439
Speaker 1: target of the game. But that's all he needs, right

263
00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:35,840
Speaker 1: And that's why we like to go back to him

264
00:12:35,840 --> 00:12:37,400
Speaker 1: because we know he's going to play on the outside.

265
00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,760
Speaker 1: We know Yoshabus is probably going to still play in

266
00:12:39,800 --> 00:12:43,120
Speaker 1: the slot. Over seventy to seventy five percent doesn't really

267
00:12:43,120 --> 00:12:45,400
Speaker 1: see much of a target bump with or without Burrow

268
00:12:46,360 --> 00:12:50,040
Speaker 1: and with Tinsley, like I mean against the Commanders or

269
00:12:50,120 --> 00:12:52,520
Speaker 1: was it the Commanders of the Jaguars or this year, Like,

270
00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:55,520
Speaker 1: it only takes one throw from him to cash this

271
00:12:55,600 --> 00:12:58,360
Speaker 1: for you, and he can win versus man coverage. So

272
00:12:58,679 --> 00:13:00,320
Speaker 1: against the Ravens, that's the guy that I think you

273
00:13:00,400 --> 00:13:02,520
Speaker 1: won here, especially when you're getting at four to one.

274
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:04,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, it was both.

275
00:13:04,400 --> 00:13:06,800
Speaker 5: It was the Commanders in the preseason and like the

276
00:13:06,880 --> 00:13:10,880
Speaker 5: Jaguars early in the regular season, and then I believe

277
00:13:11,880 --> 00:13:14,120
Speaker 5: it was when Higgins went down. I don't know if

278
00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,600
Speaker 5: Timsley had played more than five or six snaps in

279
00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:20,000
Speaker 5: that game up until Higgins got knocked out of that game,

280
00:13:20,040 --> 00:13:22,040
Speaker 5: and he comes in and immediately catches the touchdowns. So

281
00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:27,959
Speaker 5: this just a professional touchdown catcher is uh is Mitch Tinsley.

282
00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:31,000
Speaker 5: So yeah, really really like that that call. Unlike the

283
00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,000
Speaker 5: likely call as well. I think, you know, like this guy,

284
00:13:35,120 --> 00:13:37,000
Speaker 5: he's gonna be featured down the stretch. You know, well

285
00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:39,680
Speaker 5: you gave it out on the six pack, right, Yeah. Yeah,

286
00:13:39,800 --> 00:13:41,680
Speaker 5: I love the likely. I love the likely call because

287
00:13:41,679 --> 00:13:43,800
Speaker 5: it's like he had one last week, but as you mentioned,

288
00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:46,360
Speaker 5: he should have three over the past two weeks, and

289
00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,160
Speaker 5: against a man coverage Bengals team that's given up like

290
00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,560
Speaker 5: one point five x more touchdowns to tight ends than

291
00:13:51,600 --> 00:13:52,559
Speaker 5: any other team.

292
00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:54,559
Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I think I think it's it's gotta.

293
00:13:54,320 --> 00:13:57,280
Speaker 5: Be him, Andrews or Charlie Kohler, like one of those

294
00:13:57,280 --> 00:13:59,160
Speaker 5: three guys. And I think likely is the best mix

295
00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:03,960
Speaker 5: of you know, big play upside and some red zone looks.

296
00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,520
Speaker 2: All right, we got Browns at Bears. This one could

297
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:09,160
Speaker 2: get ugly.

298
00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:12,679
Speaker 5: I'm gonna go Coaston Lovelin for the Bears at plus

299
00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:15,719
Speaker 5: two to seventy five. Him and Comet I think are

300
00:14:15,720 --> 00:14:17,160
Speaker 5: good bets to get in the end zone here could

301
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,120
Speaker 5: be a little bit of win, maybe some shorter range touchdowns.

302
00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:22,440
Speaker 5: Both of them are kind of eating into each other's

303
00:14:22,440 --> 00:14:26,080
Speaker 5: playing time a little bit, but Colston does have Coaston

304
00:14:26,120 --> 00:14:29,800
Speaker 5: lovelin excuse me, does have about an extra touchdown and

305
00:14:29,800 --> 00:14:32,960
Speaker 5: a half of expected value for me over Comet since

306
00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:36,320
Speaker 5: they started playing together over these last few games. So

307
00:14:36,400 --> 00:14:38,200
Speaker 5: I'm gonna roll with love Wind here. Don't love him

308
00:14:38,200 --> 00:14:40,880
Speaker 5: as much in like traditional fantasy formats or anything like that,

309
00:14:40,920 --> 00:14:43,880
Speaker 5: because I do think the the yardage numbers could be

310
00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:47,400
Speaker 5: muted just with Comet playing a lot as well. And

311
00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:53,160
Speaker 5: then for the Cleveland Browns, want to go Harold Fanning here,

312
00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:57,200
Speaker 5: but the Bears actually their their cornerback room continues to

313
00:14:57,320 --> 00:15:00,400
Speaker 5: just be decimated by injury. So I'm gonna roll Jerry

314
00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:03,680
Speaker 5: Judy here against probably to the chagrin of like Steve

315
00:15:03,720 --> 00:15:07,920
Speaker 5: Smith Senior. But Jerry Judy at four to one, and

316
00:15:08,040 --> 00:15:09,960
Speaker 5: it's kind of just a leap of faith. But he's

317
00:15:09,960 --> 00:15:13,840
Speaker 5: been more active with Shador under center, and I do think,

318
00:15:13,880 --> 00:15:16,720
Speaker 5: you know, fan is just getting everybody's attention. The bears

319
00:15:16,880 --> 00:15:20,560
Speaker 5: expected touchdown rate to wide receivers is a lot higher

320
00:15:20,560 --> 00:15:22,960
Speaker 5: than it is for tight end. So I'm gonna go

321
00:15:23,000 --> 00:15:24,800
Speaker 5: away from Fan and hope it doesn't burn me and

322
00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,120
Speaker 5: row with Jerry Judy at four to one. That's a

323
00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 5: pretty crazy price for a number one receiver against a

324
00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:35,480
Speaker 5: bad defense, whether or not Shuore or not. But let's

325
00:15:35,520 --> 00:15:38,600
Speaker 5: go to speaking of I mean, what a game this

326
00:15:38,640 --> 00:15:40,920
Speaker 5: is gonna. I'm excited to see who you're picking this one,

327
00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:46,080
Speaker 5: Kerner Vegas at Philly Philly coming off just the disastrous

328
00:15:46,120 --> 00:15:50,960
Speaker 5: showing on offense, Vegas coming off the disastrous season, fourteen

329
00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:53,040
Speaker 5: straight showings on offense or whatever it is.

330
00:15:53,560 --> 00:15:54,440
Speaker 2: Who we got here?

331
00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:59,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, So the Raiders, it's rough. You know, Gino Smith

332
00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:03,120
Speaker 3: is out, so Kenny Pickett's getting the start. So I'm

333
00:16:03,120 --> 00:16:05,760
Speaker 3: gonna actually go with Canny Pickett here at nineteen to one.

334
00:16:06,520 --> 00:16:08,800
Speaker 3: And you know, you're not going to confuse Picket with

335
00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:11,400
Speaker 3: Jackson Dart when it comes to his rushing up side.

336
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:15,240
Speaker 3: But he's not exactly you know, some Kirk Cousins Malsanta

337
00:16:15,280 --> 00:16:18,360
Speaker 3: type either. You know, he does have a rushing score

338
00:16:19,040 --> 00:16:22,400
Speaker 3: on four point six of his career rush attempts, and

339
00:16:22,440 --> 00:16:24,200
Speaker 3: he's you know, he's still in his prime. He's twenty

340
00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:26,240
Speaker 3: seven years old, so it's not like he's slowing down

341
00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,960
Speaker 3: quite yet. And he had that amazing One of my

342
00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,360
Speaker 3: favorite plays ever was that fake slide long touchdown run

343
00:16:32,440 --> 00:16:34,880
Speaker 3: he had back at pitt So he has some rushing

344
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,160
Speaker 3: up side. There's no reason he should be nineteen to one,

345
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:39,720
Speaker 3: no matter, you know how should have a team he's on.

346
00:16:39,800 --> 00:16:42,280
Speaker 3: And this is somewhat of a revenge game, right so

347
00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,080
Speaker 3: I actually have this culture to ten to one, so

348
00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:47,560
Speaker 3: I think it's insane. You can get him at nineteen

349
00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,440
Speaker 3: to one right now. You know, probably won't score, but

350
00:16:50,560 --> 00:16:52,440
Speaker 3: love love the value we're getting here.

351
00:16:52,480 --> 00:16:53,440
Speaker 2: Let's put it that way.

352
00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,360
Speaker 3: And then on the other side, I do think this

353
00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,560
Speaker 3: guy will score. Dallas Godder gonna go back to the

354
00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:03,840
Speaker 3: well here at plus two seventy five. You know, last yek,

355
00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:06,320
Speaker 3: I took him round this price, thought it was a

356
00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:08,480
Speaker 3: good time to buy low, and sure enough, he went

357
00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:12,080
Speaker 3: off for eight catches seventy eight yards but didn't score.

358
00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:14,640
Speaker 3: But he was, you know, a couple of yards away

359
00:17:14,640 --> 00:17:16,960
Speaker 3: from scoring. On one of them. He got pushed out

360
00:17:17,000 --> 00:17:19,480
Speaker 3: like on the one or two yard line, So you're

361
00:17:19,480 --> 00:17:21,440
Speaker 3: gonna stick with him here. I still think this is

362
00:17:21,480 --> 00:17:24,399
Speaker 3: a good time to buy low in this market have

363
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:27,320
Speaker 3: him closer to plus two thirty, so like, you know,

364
00:17:27,359 --> 00:17:31,240
Speaker 3: getting him a plus two to seventy five, now, yeah.

365
00:17:31,040 --> 00:17:32,879
Speaker 5: I mean it does take some kahonas to go to

366
00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,280
Speaker 5: anybody to catch a touchdown on the Egos after that

367
00:17:36,440 --> 00:17:38,359
Speaker 5: last week. But I do think they'll probably try to

368
00:17:38,400 --> 00:17:40,640
Speaker 5: get hurts, you know, get Hurts going. I don't think

369
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:42,800
Speaker 5: they'll go super super run heavy. They're not gonna be

370
00:17:42,840 --> 00:17:45,199
Speaker 5: scared of the of the Raiders or anything like that.

371
00:17:45,240 --> 00:17:46,800
Speaker 5: So it's like like you can turn the ball over

372
00:17:46,800 --> 00:17:52,800
Speaker 5: against the Raiders and be fine. Jill Commander's at Giants

373
00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 5: divisional matchup here, most scoring game in the first one.

374
00:17:57,600 --> 00:18:00,320
Speaker 5: Mariota back at quarterback. He's been a better quarter though

375
00:18:00,920 --> 00:18:02,800
Speaker 5: for Washington this year. Who are looking at.

376
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:04,720
Speaker 1: Well, I'm gonna start with him. I think this game

377
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,520
Speaker 1: is where you want Mariota for his rushing upside the Giants,

378
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:09,320
Speaker 1: they're still going to play a lot of man coverage

379
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:12,480
Speaker 1: and single high safety. And the last start that he

380
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:15,840
Speaker 1: had was against the Broncos, who also play a lot

381
00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:17,920
Speaker 1: of man in single high, but they're obviously just way

382
00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,679
Speaker 1: more effective in defending the run. But he had ten carries,

383
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 1: two of them are in the red zone, whereas now

384
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,240
Speaker 1: we're playing the Giants, who are last in defensive DVOA

385
00:18:25,359 --> 00:18:28,040
Speaker 1: versus the run this year with seventeen rushing touchdowns allowed.

386
00:18:28,080 --> 00:18:30,199
Speaker 1: So if you're gonna bet on Marcus Mariota, I think

387
00:18:30,200 --> 00:18:31,480
Speaker 1: this is the type of game that you do it

388
00:18:31,480 --> 00:18:34,399
Speaker 1: you can get around plus three hundred. THEO Johnson on

389
00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:38,680
Speaker 1: the Giants, I can't quit him, especially Canadian brethren, like

390
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:41,400
Speaker 1: I got to keep supporting Canadian tight ends here, I guess.

391
00:18:41,400 --> 00:18:43,840
Speaker 1: But one of the things that I like about THEO

392
00:18:43,920 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 1: in this matchup is specifically how the Commander's defense has

393
00:18:46,640 --> 00:18:49,680
Speaker 1: kind of shifted since Marshawn Lattimore went down, Because when

394
00:18:49,680 --> 00:18:52,080
Speaker 1: you go back and look since that injury, since Week nine,

395
00:18:52,240 --> 00:18:54,600
Speaker 1: their top five in zone rate and the highest rate

396
00:18:54,600 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 1: of two high safety. That was not how they used

397
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,200
Speaker 1: to play with him in the lineup, and that actually

398
00:18:59,240 --> 00:19:01,560
Speaker 1: lines up well for him. He's got good receiver metrics

399
00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,800
Speaker 1: against them against that kind of defense, but also commanders

400
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:06,879
Speaker 1: nine touchdowns allowed to tight ends this year. We just

401
00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,400
Speaker 1: watched them give up Josh Oliver twice last week, TJ. Hawkinson,

402
00:19:10,520 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 1: and Johnson has scored all five of his touchdowns this year.

403
00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:15,439
Speaker 1: With Jackson dere to a quarterback, leads the team with

404
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:18,320
Speaker 1: seven end zone targets, so I think THEO Johnson, you

405
00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:20,919
Speaker 1: could say Wandale Robinson might have the best matchup, but

406
00:19:21,000 --> 00:19:23,600
Speaker 1: I don't love betting Wandale ever for touchdowns. He's more

407
00:19:23,640 --> 00:19:26,800
Speaker 1: of a receivers. You're receiving, you know, receptions. THEO Johnson,

408
00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:28,399
Speaker 1: who's you want at plus two to fifty.

409
00:19:29,640 --> 00:19:31,960
Speaker 5: Yeah, yeah, especially with dartback, you know, maybe he runs

410
00:19:31,960 --> 00:19:33,960
Speaker 5: a little bit less looking and that means he looks

411
00:19:33,960 --> 00:19:35,800
Speaker 5: for the tight end in the in the red zone,

412
00:19:35,800 --> 00:19:38,120
Speaker 5: because that's really where the Giants kind of adjusted. Earlier

413
00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 5: in the year they were just, I mean, the worst

414
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:42,320
Speaker 5: red zone team, so they started putting more tight ends

415
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,600
Speaker 5: on the field, and I think that's that's opened it

416
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:49,400
Speaker 5: up for THEO a little bit. Rams hosting the Lions

417
00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,000
Speaker 5: love this for touchdowns. This should be a high scoring game.

418
00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:55,200
Speaker 5: We got the total around fifty five. So let's start

419
00:19:55,240 --> 00:19:58,359
Speaker 5: with the Rams. DeVante Adams. I want to bet him

420
00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:01,080
Speaker 5: for two plus year at plus three to sixty. Why

421
00:20:01,480 --> 00:20:03,879
Speaker 5: he's done it four times in the last seven games

422
00:20:03,880 --> 00:20:06,560
Speaker 5: A lot. I mean, I don't know how you get

423
00:20:06,560 --> 00:20:08,639
Speaker 5: away from a bet like this. You know, you know,

424
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,159
Speaker 5: long term, you don't expect they got to keep up up,

425
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:14,200
Speaker 5: you know, above fifty percent rate in terms of multiple

426
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,960
Speaker 5: touchdowns over half a season. But uh, in this spot,

427
00:20:18,040 --> 00:20:22,600
Speaker 5: Detroit giving up the highest expected touchdown rate two wide

428
00:20:22,600 --> 00:20:25,320
Speaker 5: receivers in the National Football League, and then you have

429
00:20:25,400 --> 00:20:28,879
Speaker 5: Davante Adams with the most expected touchdowns of any receiver

430
00:20:29,160 --> 00:20:33,000
Speaker 5: in the National Football League and he's converted on even

431
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:36,760
Speaker 5: more than that. So I love Davante here at plus

432
00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:40,320
Speaker 5: three sixty to score two or more. And then for

433
00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,920
Speaker 5: the Lions, Jamison Williams at plus one point eighty five.

434
00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:46,720
Speaker 5: This is one of those games where, uh, you know,

435
00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:50,040
Speaker 5: it's indoors, Jared Goff might have to go down the field,

436
00:20:50,040 --> 00:20:52,399
Speaker 5: they might be trailing a lot. So it is a

437
00:20:52,400 --> 00:20:54,800
Speaker 5: good spot for for JMO from that angle. You know,

438
00:20:54,840 --> 00:20:56,800
Speaker 5: he tends to kind of have ups and downs, so

439
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:58,639
Speaker 5: I'm always a little weary of him. You know, he

440
00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:00,879
Speaker 5: could just go quiet here after a couple of big games.

441
00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,520
Speaker 5: But I do think they're going to need him at

442
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 5: least to get in the end zone. And he does

443
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,560
Speaker 5: get some of those rushing chances as well to get

444
00:21:07,600 --> 00:21:09,119
Speaker 5: in the end zone and boost his chances so like

445
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:14,960
Speaker 5: him at nearly two to one for Detroit Carolina at

446
00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:19,919
Speaker 5: New Orleans Kerner lower total game here, but it is

447
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 5: indoors who were looking at for the Panthers and Saints.

448
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:25,119
Speaker 3: Yeah, so the Panthers, I'm going to go with a

449
00:21:25,160 --> 00:21:28,719
Speaker 3: long shot here, Mitchell Evans at eleven to one and

450
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,720
Speaker 3: actually heading into his rookie season, I sort of pegged

451
00:21:31,760 --> 00:21:35,920
Speaker 3: them as being a potential vulture touchdown guy, and sure

452
00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,760
Speaker 3: enough that's been the case. He has two touchdowns already

453
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,440
Speaker 3: despite really being on the tail end of a three

454
00:21:41,440 --> 00:21:47,040
Speaker 3: way committee with Jatavian Sanders and Tommy Tremble. So it's

455
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 3: easy to see how he's going to be overlooked in

456
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:51,720
Speaker 3: this market still, but he's typically going to be out

457
00:21:51,720 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 3: there when they do get you know, near the goal line.

458
00:21:54,240 --> 00:21:56,560
Speaker 3: And both of his touchdowns are less than five yards,

459
00:21:56,560 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 3: so I'm not expecting you know, a ninety yard catch

460
00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:01,600
Speaker 3: and run here. So they do drive get an end

461
00:22:01,680 --> 00:22:05,439
Speaker 3: zone here, you know, his chance of scoring higher than

462
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,119
Speaker 3: people think. I'm still projecting this, you know, close were

463
00:22:08,240 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 3: to ten to one, but he's the only Panther I'm

464
00:22:10,840 --> 00:22:13,639
Speaker 3: showing clear value on. As we talked about Raybond, No

465
00:22:13,800 --> 00:22:16,080
Speaker 3: clue how this backfield's gonna kind of shake out. So

466
00:22:16,080 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 3: I think it's way too volatile to invest in. So

467
00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:22,399
Speaker 3: give me the third string tight end touchdown play here

468
00:22:22,400 --> 00:22:25,320
Speaker 3: at eleven to one, and then on the saint side,

469
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,720
Speaker 3: I like Devon Veley again here at plus two to

470
00:22:28,840 --> 00:22:31,800
Speaker 3: ninety just he continues to operate as you know, the

471
00:22:31,880 --> 00:22:35,600
Speaker 3: clear number two wide receiver had a ninety percent plus

472
00:22:35,680 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 3: routes run rate. Again, and Alave has never really been

473
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,399
Speaker 3: a huge touchdown guy, and Veley is a bigger target,

474
00:22:42,480 --> 00:22:44,800
Speaker 3: so I think when they are in the red zone,

475
00:22:44,840 --> 00:22:47,520
Speaker 3: you know he's going to be one of Shuck's top targets.

476
00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,600
Speaker 3: And I think defenses are going to have to take

477
00:22:49,680 --> 00:22:52,199
Speaker 3: Chuck's rushing up side, which I didn't really know he

478
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 3: had a little bit more seriously, I think they kind

479
00:22:55,760 --> 00:22:59,960
Speaker 3: of like temper down like Taysom Hills us Suge a bit,

480
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 3: because there are some plays I thought that was Taysom Hill,

481
00:23:02,280 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 3: like he had a designed Russia temp right where he

482
00:23:04,920 --> 00:23:07,879
Speaker 3: almost scored from like the seven yard line. So I

483
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:10,440
Speaker 3: think defenses are gonna have to start taking him seriously

484
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,080
Speaker 3: as a runner. So that could actually set up you know,

485
00:23:13,200 --> 00:23:16,439
Speaker 3: Veile being open in the end zone as a result,

486
00:23:16,480 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 3: So I like vele here at plus two ninety, projecting

487
00:23:19,280 --> 00:23:23,040
Speaker 3: him closer to plus two point fifty.

488
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 2: Yeah.

489
00:23:23,680 --> 00:23:27,440
Speaker 5: Uh, Vley is He's been one of my favorite kind

490
00:23:27,440 --> 00:23:29,720
Speaker 5: of touchdown bets ever since they traded all those guys.

491
00:23:29,720 --> 00:23:31,840
Speaker 5: I think they're definitely looking to get him involved. I mean,

492
00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:34,960
Speaker 5: you could argue he's like the top the top, the

493
00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:37,480
Speaker 5: most likely guy on the face to catch a touchdown.

494
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,119
Speaker 5: Like you said, a love is not really big touchdown.

495
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,800
Speaker 5: And then Juwan Johnson hasn't been playing as much in

496
00:23:42,960 --> 00:23:45,520
Speaker 5: non one one personnel, so like when they are in

497
00:23:45,560 --> 00:23:48,120
Speaker 5: the red zone a lot of times it's like Taysom

498
00:23:48,119 --> 00:23:52,320
Speaker 5: and Jack Stole and Foster Moreau who were in the game.

499
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 5: So that kind of kills his touchdown upside a little

500
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 5: bit too. Okay, who got next? The Packers at the

501
00:23:57,480 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 5: Denver Broncos in Denver, Jo who were looking at and

502
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 5: this one looks like good. It's expected to be a

503
00:24:03,960 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 5: pretty tight, somewhat well scoring game.

504
00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, and because of that, we are getting a little

505
00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 1: bit of good odds on some certain players here. I'm

506
00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,639
Speaker 1: going to start with Jayden Reid. He's around plus four fifty.

507
00:24:14,800 --> 00:24:16,800
Speaker 1: I think he really caught my eye on Week fourteen

508
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:19,600
Speaker 1: with how explosive he looked, Maybe just because I hadn't

509
00:24:19,600 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 1: seen him since Week three, I kind of almost like,

510
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,160
Speaker 1: sometimes forget how involved he could be in this offense.

511
00:24:24,440 --> 00:24:28,760
Speaker 1: Ran the third most routes last week, seventy percent slot rate,

512
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:30,760
Speaker 1: so I think that because of that, he's going to

513
00:24:30,920 --> 00:24:33,680
Speaker 1: likely avoid Patrick's retain, who I think is probably gonna

514
00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,320
Speaker 1: shadow Christian Watson or Romeo Dobbs, whoever's kind of on

515
00:24:36,359 --> 00:24:40,160
Speaker 1: the outside. And when Reed came back, that essentially made

516
00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 1: Don Tavian Wicks and Matthew Golden non factors. They combined

517
00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: for ten snaps total in Week fourteen, so Reid ended

518
00:24:48,119 --> 00:24:50,280
Speaker 1: up leading the team in target rate for that game

519
00:24:50,400 --> 00:24:52,760
Speaker 1: and just being a weapon in the slot they really

520
00:24:52,760 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: haven't had since Tuckercraft with down. I really like the

521
00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:57,359
Speaker 1: way that he could find a way to score, especially

522
00:24:57,400 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: if they sprinkle in some more rush attempts. He did

523
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,159
Speaker 1: have two rush attempts as well in Week fourteen, so

524
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:04,920
Speaker 1: at plus four fifty, I like his chances to score.

525
00:25:05,000 --> 00:25:07,720
Speaker 1: But this one, I thought this was gonna be the

526
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:10,720
Speaker 1: highest odds of any touchdown bet we gave out this week.

527
00:25:10,800 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: Kerner ended up beating me there with Kenny Pickens. But

528
00:25:14,560 --> 00:25:17,520
Speaker 1: Nate Adkins at sixteen to one, I am seeing he's

529
00:25:17,520 --> 00:25:20,120
Speaker 1: coming back this week. I'm going big game hunting because

530
00:25:21,840 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: missed five games. I think he's gonna have to be

531
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,159
Speaker 1: on the field a ton in this game, just to

532
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 1: help block with how much the Packers get pressure. And

533
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,600
Speaker 1: when he's on the field, the Broncos they tend to

534
00:25:30,600 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 1: target him his scheme up looks for him and the

535
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 1: Packers they're really good at limiting explosive plays, so good

536
00:25:36,760 --> 00:25:39,040
Speaker 1: against the deep ball. So if I'm petting, if I'm

537
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: betting on a Bronco to score, I want short range

538
00:25:41,880 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 1: targets that excel versus his own defense, and that's Adkins

539
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,720
Speaker 1: so And the other thing too is the Packers pass defense.

540
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,760
Speaker 1: If they do have a weakness, it's likely versus tight ends.

541
00:25:50,760 --> 00:25:53,159
Speaker 1: They've allowed six touchdowns to the position compared to just

542
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 1: ten to wide receivers. So Nate Adkins at sixteen to one,

543
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:59,479
Speaker 1: if he's on the field, he's they're gonna throw to him,

544
00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,520
Speaker 1: I think when they get near the goal line. So

545
00:26:01,560 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: that's who I like for a long shot this week.

546
00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:06,320
Speaker 1: And Nate Adkins sixteen to one, Yeah, I.

547
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 5: Always love it because he like their top tight end

548
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:10,160
Speaker 5: is not a touchdown score.

549
00:26:10,520 --> 00:26:14,040
Speaker 2: Evan Ingram doesn't really and we went down this road before.

550
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:15,760
Speaker 1: You bet on a guy who you think is going

551
00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 1: to score, you don't do that in a Sean Payton offense.

552
00:26:18,119 --> 00:26:21,600
Speaker 5: Hell, nope, nope, exactly. Yeah, No, I love this. I

553
00:26:21,680 --> 00:26:24,360
Speaker 5: think this is a really sharp play. And he could

554
00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:25,919
Speaker 5: also take some of those snaps. You know, they've been

555
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:30,040
Speaker 5: given Adam Prentiss a ton of snaps ever since Dobbins

556
00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 5: went down, but they could kind of replace some of

557
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 5: those snaps with with Adkins as well. So yeah, I

558
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 5: like that one a lot. Next up, we got the

559
00:26:38,880 --> 00:26:42,600
Speaker 5: Titans at the San Francisco forty nine ers. For the Titans,

560
00:26:42,600 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 5: I'm going with Gunner helmet plus four to seventy five.

561
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,639
Speaker 5: He's been a guy that's starting to tick up a

562
00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 5: little bit under the new coaching staff.

563
00:26:49,119 --> 00:26:51,080
Speaker 2: Seeing more work in the red zone.

564
00:26:51,760 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 5: Hasn't always worked out for him as far as far

565
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,879
Speaker 5: as translating it into touchdown production, but I do have

566
00:26:56,960 --> 00:27:00,720
Speaker 5: him top three on the team and expected touchdowns receiving,

567
00:27:00,880 --> 00:27:03,119
Speaker 5: and you know, he's the only guy that's still stuck

568
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:06,040
Speaker 5: on one, So I think he's a little bit due here.

569
00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:09,159
Speaker 5: The Niners have been really good against wide receivers in

570
00:27:09,240 --> 00:27:12,840
Speaker 5: terms of limiting the touchdown production, but against tight ends

571
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,040
Speaker 5: they've been a bit vulnerable.

572
00:27:14,119 --> 00:27:14,480
Speaker 2: Makes sense.

573
00:27:14,520 --> 00:27:16,480
Speaker 5: You know, they don't get a ton of pressure. They

574
00:27:16,480 --> 00:27:19,359
Speaker 5: will play a lot of own coverage. So like Gunner

575
00:27:19,359 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 5: Helm in this spot, and he's been getting on the

576
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:23,640
Speaker 5: field in the red zone, kind of splitting those snaps

577
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:27,439
Speaker 5: with chig or sometimes running more playing over him in

578
00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:30,639
Speaker 5: the red zone. So like Helm for the Titans and

579
00:27:30,640 --> 00:27:34,720
Speaker 5: then the Niners. Juwan Jennings, Joe, I know you're highing

580
00:27:34,800 --> 00:27:37,600
Speaker 5: him this week as well. I love him here plus

581
00:27:37,640 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 5: one ninety Titans our team. You just want to attack

582
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 5: with number one wide receivers if you're kind of betting

583
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:47,200
Speaker 5: on the prop market. They are number twenty nine in Dvoa.

584
00:27:47,600 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 5: Excuse me, number thirty one in DVOA against number one

585
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:55,240
Speaker 5: wide receivers, forty six and a half percent worse than

586
00:27:55,280 --> 00:27:59,159
Speaker 5: the average team against the number one receiver. And as

587
00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,520
Speaker 5: Claire Jennings is the number one receiver Ricky Pierce, so

588
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:05,840
Speaker 5: I mean on milk Carton essentially, and then we know

589
00:28:05,920 --> 00:28:08,080
Speaker 5: Kittle's gonna get his But I think Jennings is the

590
00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,399
Speaker 5: guy we want to look at just based on the

591
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:15,600
Speaker 5: matchup in this one Colts Seahawks Kurder. This is another

592
00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:17,600
Speaker 5: one where I mean, I don't think it's going to

593
00:28:17,640 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 5: be Philip Rivers, right, It's probably gonna be Leonard or

594
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 5: Rippon I would think at quarterback.

595
00:28:21,720 --> 00:28:23,560
Speaker 2: Is that that where you're kind of looking, well.

596
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 3: They're offering uh, Rivers passing yard props so.

597
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 2: And touchdown props.

598
00:28:29,080 --> 00:28:33,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, well the practice of the elevated ripping, so I'm

599
00:28:33,080 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 5: just and Leonard practice full Yeah, seems like it's going

600
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 5: to be one of those two.

601
00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, Leonard's healthy enough to play, so that's that helps.

602
00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:43,840
Speaker 3: But that's kind of my point here. With Michael Pittman

603
00:28:44,200 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 3: junior at plus five fifty, not sure what to expect.

604
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:51,920
Speaker 3: So if you know, Philip River suits up, we haven't

605
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: seen him play in a while. He's forty four years old,

606
00:28:54,440 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 3: so not sure how they'll look, right, Leonard being healthy

607
00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:01,120
Speaker 3: does provide a safety net at least if Rivers completely bombs,

608
00:29:01,720 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 3: so I you know, be careful with the artist props.

609
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:07,040
Speaker 3: This is a tougher matchup against the Seahawks as well,

610
00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:08,920
Speaker 3: but I think it's worth taking a flyer on a

611
00:29:09,000 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 3: higher upside market, Like you know, Pittman scoring here at

612
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,560
Speaker 3: plus by fifty because you know he has seven touchdowns

613
00:29:14,560 --> 00:29:17,280
Speaker 3: this season, typically won't see a price this high for him.

614
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:19,080
Speaker 2: But you know, I get it.

615
00:29:19,120 --> 00:29:20,720
Speaker 3: This is a game where they have a very low

616
00:29:20,760 --> 00:29:23,200
Speaker 3: team total. But there's just such a wide range of

617
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:26,520
Speaker 3: outcomes here. You know, Rivers might look decent, and you

618
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 3: know he's peppering Pittman with a ton of targets, and

619
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 3: we're like, why didn't we bet Pittman at plus by fifty?

620
00:29:32,200 --> 00:29:34,600
Speaker 3: So I think he's worth a flyer here. I haven't

621
00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,480
Speaker 3: projected at plus three fifty, but again, you can't be

622
00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 3: too confident with any projections here. And last week, you know,

623
00:29:40,720 --> 00:29:43,400
Speaker 3: when Rayle Leonard came in the game, I mean he

624
00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 3: connected with Pittman for what like nine catches, so that

625
00:29:47,520 --> 00:29:50,320
Speaker 3: was his favorite target, you know, ray But when we

626
00:29:50,320 --> 00:29:52,360
Speaker 3: were talking about having a week to kind of prepare

627
00:29:52,400 --> 00:29:55,479
Speaker 3: for this, they might scheme up more plays for Tyler Warren.

628
00:29:55,560 --> 00:29:57,760
Speaker 3: But either way, you know, I think Pittman's gonna get

629
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 3: his So might as well take a flyer on him

630
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:03,520
Speaker 3: him at play plus five fifty and just kind of

631
00:30:03,560 --> 00:30:07,120
Speaker 3: see what happens here. But on the other side, I'm

632
00:30:07,160 --> 00:30:09,600
Speaker 3: just gonna stick with my guy here, Aj Barner at

633
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:13,840
Speaker 3: plus one ninety. It's just been infuriating to see him

634
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,360
Speaker 3: go scoreless now in five straight games, despite him, you know,

635
00:30:17,480 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 3: being the ball carrier on their tushbush play. I still think,

636
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,360
Speaker 3: you know, we'll probably see him get you know, a

637
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 3: goal line kerry in the last handful of games here.

638
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:29,480
Speaker 3: So that's kind of a cheat code for him in

639
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 3: this market because he's also the lead pass catching tight

640
00:30:33,160 --> 00:30:36,200
Speaker 3: end this offense as well. And last week he nearly

641
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: scored twice where you know, he had a nice catch

642
00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:42,360
Speaker 3: and run where he got pushed out on like the

643
00:30:42,400 --> 00:30:44,680
Speaker 3: one or two yard line, and then the very next

644
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:48,800
Speaker 3: play Darnald actually looked his way, he got open and

645
00:30:48,880 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 3: Darnald threw it, you know, five yards. It was uncatchable,

646
00:30:51,720 --> 00:30:54,400
Speaker 3: but Barner did his part. So both plays, you know,

647
00:30:54,440 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 3: he almost scored. He's almost there. Obviously, the market's well

648
00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 3: onto this. He's plus one ninety, but this is a

649
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:03,360
Speaker 3: game where you know, they could score a handful of touchdowns.

650
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,200
Speaker 3: So like my you know odds here, I'm I'm projecting

651
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 3: the culture to a plus one sixty. So I'm gonna keep

652
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:10,120
Speaker 3: going to this well while I can.

653
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think you're in good shape with Pittman, because

654
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:17,040
Speaker 5: I I just don't believe Phil Rivers is gonna start

655
00:31:17,160 --> 00:31:19,680
Speaker 5: this game. Like I know that it's smart for the

656
00:31:19,680 --> 00:31:21,440
Speaker 5: prop market to get you know, put odds on him

657
00:31:21,440 --> 00:31:23,560
Speaker 5: because he's the most likely got to get knocked out

658
00:31:23,720 --> 00:31:26,360
Speaker 5: or just like completely bombed to where it's like people

659
00:31:26,400 --> 00:31:28,280
Speaker 5: are gonna be taken over, and it's like all right, you.

660
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 3: Know, well like marketing too, they want people talking about

661
00:31:31,480 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 3: you know, they have a prop for him, because everybody's

662
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,080
Speaker 3: talking about Rivers.

663
00:31:35,120 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 1: But yeah, what is what is the best case scenario

664
00:31:38,000 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 1: for for Rivers?

665
00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:39,040
Speaker 3: Though?

666
00:31:39,080 --> 00:31:42,560
Speaker 1: Is it Flacco from earlier this year? Like is that

667
00:31:42,640 --> 00:31:44,920
Speaker 1: like the best case? Like I feel like that even

668
00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 1: that might be too generous.

669
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:47,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think he can.

670
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,680
Speaker 5: Like Flacco is like a little lankier and like Rivers is,

671
00:31:51,960 --> 00:31:53,920
Speaker 5: I just don't see him moving well or taking a

672
00:31:54,040 --> 00:31:56,280
Speaker 5: hit like very well at all.

673
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:01,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I don't conspirae theory that this kind of

674
00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 3: delays his Hall of Fame period and it's gonna be

675
00:32:06,440 --> 00:32:09,840
Speaker 3: like an easier one to get into. That's kind of

676
00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:11,200
Speaker 3: the conspiracy I saw.

677
00:32:11,560 --> 00:32:13,440
Speaker 1: So like ten grandchildren by then.

678
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean it makes sense because he got like

679
00:32:15,560 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 5: Stikeen's his boy, So I mean we're doing that favorite.

680
00:32:18,040 --> 00:32:20,400
Speaker 5: But I mean the fact that they elevated ripping and

681
00:32:20,680 --> 00:32:24,000
Speaker 5: Leonard practicing for just I mean that now the quarterback

682
00:32:24,080 --> 00:32:26,480
Speaker 5: on the practice squad is the one that's gonna that

683
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 5: that hasn't played in five years is the one gonna start.

684
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,520
Speaker 2: I'm just not buying it. So if it's Leonard, yeah,

685
00:32:31,560 --> 00:32:32,440
Speaker 2: he he.

686
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,400
Speaker 5: He was looking Pittman's way a ton, So I think

687
00:32:34,400 --> 00:32:36,920
Speaker 5: that that's that would be even better for the for

688
00:32:37,000 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 5: the problem. All right, Before we get into our favorite

689
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:46,000
Speaker 5: Sunday anytime touchdown parlay into two primetime games, just want

690
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 5: to remind everyone to sign up for Action Pro for

691
00:32:49,120 --> 00:32:52,400
Speaker 5: real time pick alerts from experts like Sean Kerner, Joe Galant, myself,

692
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,360
Speaker 5: and the entire Action Network team. Plus you can access

693
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:58,480
Speaker 5: our pro projections powered by Kerner our predictive analytics team.

694
00:32:58,720 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 5: Just go to Action network dot com Slash pro and

695
00:33:01,480 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 5: get twenty dollars off the annual price with promo code

696
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,160
Speaker 5: Pod twenty that's Pod two zero. Don't miss out on

697
00:33:08,200 --> 00:33:11,360
Speaker 5: the best bets at the best prices. Action Network dot

698
00:33:11,360 --> 00:33:15,440
Speaker 5: Com Slash Pro with promo code Pod two zero to

699
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:20,120
Speaker 5: get twenty dollars off one year of Action Pro. All right,

700
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:24,920
Speaker 5: sign for our favorite Sunday Any Time Touchdown parlay presented

701
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 5: by DraftKings before we head to these primetime games where

702
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:31,600
Speaker 5: we're just going to give our favorite touchdown bet for

703
00:33:31,640 --> 00:33:35,560
Speaker 5: the daytime Sunday Slate Kerner, you're up first.

704
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 2: Where are you going? Yeah?

705
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 3: My favorite player to score is Jaden Higgins at plus

706
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 3: three ten, just continuing to trend up, continuing to draw

707
00:33:44,120 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 3: a huge target rate. He's seen a target on thirty

708
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:50,640
Speaker 3: percent of his routes the last five games. The main

709
00:33:50,680 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 3: issue is he's still being capped right around at fifty

710
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:56,320
Speaker 3: five percent routes on rate. Even if he stays there,

711
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 3: I'm projecting this coasture at a plus two to fifty.

712
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 3: So if you just start seeing more playing time, it's

713
00:34:01,480 --> 00:34:03,600
Speaker 3: gonna offer more value. So give me Higgins here at

714
00:34:03,600 --> 00:34:04,240
Speaker 3: plus three ten.

715
00:34:05,840 --> 00:34:06,600
Speaker 2: Joe, where are we going?

716
00:34:07,400 --> 00:34:09,160
Speaker 1: Uh? Don't mean to step on your toes, man, but

717
00:34:09,200 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take Juwan Jennings if it's alright, because to me,

718
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:15,040
Speaker 1: he's the type of wide receiver who's effective. Doesn't matter

719
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,240
Speaker 1: what type of defense he's facing. It's a wide receiver

720
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:20,200
Speaker 1: one favorable matchup against the Titans, and I just think

721
00:34:20,200 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: he's very underrated in this offense. So he's around plus

722
00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,560
Speaker 1: one seventy five at DraftKings. I'll take that and I'll

723
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:27,239
Speaker 1: pay it right back.

724
00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 5: Joe, because I'm going with likely Isaiah Likely at plus

725
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,879
Speaker 5: two to seventy five. The Bengals have given up one

726
00:34:32,920 --> 00:34:36,200
Speaker 5: point five x more expected touchdowns to tight ends and

727
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:37,839
Speaker 5: any other team in the week. They've given up six

728
00:34:37,880 --> 00:34:40,960
Speaker 5: more actual touchdowns to tight ends than any other team

729
00:34:41,239 --> 00:34:43,239
Speaker 5: in the league. Isaiah Like, we should have three over

730
00:34:43,280 --> 00:34:45,920
Speaker 5: the past two weeks. Give me Likely all day at

731
00:34:45,920 --> 00:34:50,120
Speaker 5: plus two seventy five. You parlay Jayden Higgins any time touchdown,

732
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 5: Juwan Jennings anytime touchdown, Isaia Likely anytime touchdown at DraftKings

733
00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:58,359
Speaker 5: and you get juicy odds of thirty eight to one.

734
00:34:59,080 --> 00:35:03,359
Speaker 5: Debt was our face anytime touchdown parlay presented by DraftKings

735
00:35:03,520 --> 00:35:04,680
Speaker 5: for Week number fifteen.

736
00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:07,759
Speaker 2: Let's get to Sunday Night football, all right.

737
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:12,160
Speaker 5: We got the Minnesota Vikings at the Dallas Cowboys.

738
00:35:12,160 --> 00:35:14,160
Speaker 2: I have a right up for this one on Action Network.

739
00:35:14,200 --> 00:35:16,120
Speaker 5: As far as the betting side is concerned later in

740
00:35:16,320 --> 00:35:19,920
Speaker 5: the week, But Kerner, where we're looking for and anytime

741
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:23,640
Speaker 5: touchdown in Sunday Night football Vike's Cowboys.

742
00:35:23,920 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go with Jordan Mason here at plus twoh five.

743
00:35:27,760 --> 00:35:31,840
Speaker 3: And you know, the Vikings offense was surprisingly functional last

744
00:35:31,840 --> 00:35:35,120
Speaker 3: week with JJ McCarthy back, so we could see them

745
00:35:35,120 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 3: continue to roll here in another easy spot against the Cowboys.

746
00:35:39,000 --> 00:35:40,959
Speaker 3: And we've seen Mason in much more of an even

747
00:35:40,960 --> 00:35:42,760
Speaker 3: time shore with Aaron Jones when it comes.

748
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:43,439
Speaker 2: To early down work.

749
00:35:44,120 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 3: And he might have a sigh edge when it comes

750
00:35:45,760 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 3: to goal line work because he had that eight yard

751
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:52,880
Speaker 3: rushing touchdown last week and that second Josh Oliver touchdown

752
00:35:52,880 --> 00:35:54,920
Speaker 3: from the six yard line, Mason was in there, so

753
00:35:55,000 --> 00:35:57,600
Speaker 3: if they decided to run it on first and goal there,

754
00:35:57,880 --> 00:36:01,000
Speaker 3: he would have had another crack this for another touchdown.

755
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:05,160
Speaker 3: So yeah, I like him here at plus one plus

756
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:07,399
Speaker 3: two or five. I'm projecting this closer to plus one

757
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 3: to eighty.

758
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:09,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think he is.

759
00:36:10,360 --> 00:36:12,759
Speaker 5: He probably is that their primary go I'm back, all

760
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:13,960
Speaker 5: things considered.

761
00:36:13,800 --> 00:36:14,360
Speaker 2: They should be.

762
00:36:15,680 --> 00:36:20,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, Jill, what we're looking at for Vike's Cowboys, I'm

763
00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:21,280
Speaker 5: gonna go with Jordan Addison.

764
00:36:21,320 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 1: He's around plus two to twenty. Cowboys are last in

765
00:36:24,400 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 1: the NFL and wide wide receiver touchdowns. They're also last

766
00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:29,919
Speaker 1: in the NFL against the deep ball, and that's where

767
00:36:29,920 --> 00:36:34,000
Speaker 1: Addison excels with the deep throws. Right, So if JJ

768
00:36:34,080 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 1: McCarthy is finally gonna rehabilitate whatever passing issues he had,

769
00:36:39,480 --> 00:36:41,600
Speaker 1: that should lead to Addison maybe getting more looks and

770
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:43,919
Speaker 1: finally getting one that actually is catchable. So I'm gonna

771
00:36:43,960 --> 00:36:45,120
Speaker 1: take Jordan Addison here.

772
00:36:45,960 --> 00:36:47,319
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, he's been a guy we've all been

773
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 5: looking for to getting the end zone for quite some

774
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,480
Speaker 5: time now, but this is the match up for it.

775
00:36:51,520 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 5: As you mentioned, just Cowboys defense has been pretty bad

776
00:36:55,800 --> 00:37:00,319
Speaker 5: against the past. Speaking of defenses in the past, the

777
00:37:00,400 --> 00:37:02,560
Speaker 5: Vikings have been very good against the pass. So I'm

778
00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,680
Speaker 5: gonna go with Davonte Williams. He's juiced up to minus

779
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:07,799
Speaker 5: one forty. You could in this spot go for two

780
00:37:08,160 --> 00:37:09,799
Speaker 5: plus touchdowns as well if you want to get some

781
00:37:09,800 --> 00:37:12,280
Speaker 5: better juice, But I'm just gonna keep it old fashion

782
00:37:12,320 --> 00:37:14,279
Speaker 5: and go to one since it's the Since we have

783
00:37:14,360 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 5: a couple of you know, longer shots already in the

784
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:21,759
Speaker 5: Parlay and Minnesota, no tight end touchdown since Week ten.

785
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 5: No wide receiver touchdowns since Week nine allowed, so it's

786
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:27,680
Speaker 5: been all running backs when people get into the end

787
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:30,680
Speaker 5: zone against Minnesota or I guess the defense on the

788
00:37:30,719 --> 00:37:34,080
Speaker 5: other side. But the Cowboys are a home favorite in

789
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:35,839
Speaker 5: this spot, so that is where we like running back

790
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:38,440
Speaker 5: to see a little bit of an uptick in scoring potentials.

791
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:42,319
Speaker 5: So give me Javonte Williams at minus one forty. The

792
00:37:42,360 --> 00:37:47,040
Speaker 5: parlay odds for Jordan Mason anytime touchdown, Jordan Addison anytime

793
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:51,359
Speaker 5: touchdown in Javonte Williams anytime touchdown sixteen to one over

794
00:37:51,400 --> 00:37:54,520
Speaker 5: at DraftKings. That Sunday Night football. Now it's get into

795
00:37:54,600 --> 00:37:58,359
Speaker 5: Monday night. We got the Miami Dolphins and the Pittsburgh

796
00:37:58,600 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 5: Steelers square and all of Kerner.

797
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:03,799
Speaker 2: Who do we like in Dolphin Steelers? Yeah?

798
00:38:03,800 --> 00:38:08,799
Speaker 3: I like Pat Friar. Move here, Move at plus three eighty, Man,

799
00:38:09,040 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 3: I love this price. If Darnell Washington's ruled out, I'd

800
00:38:13,560 --> 00:38:16,879
Speaker 3: project this culture at a plus three hundred because when

801
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,000
Speaker 3: Washington was forced out of the game, move saw a

802
00:38:19,080 --> 00:38:22,319
Speaker 3: huge increase in usage, had a sixty three percent routes

803
00:38:22,400 --> 00:38:24,920
Speaker 3: run rate. So if Washington's out, you could see him

804
00:38:25,000 --> 00:38:28,880
Speaker 3: run a route on you know, seventy percent plus dropbacks

805
00:38:28,920 --> 00:38:31,680
Speaker 3: here Johnny Smith, he's just been really struggling of late,

806
00:38:32,160 --> 00:38:33,760
Speaker 3: so he's been kind of falling off.

807
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 2: In my model.

808
00:38:35,440 --> 00:38:37,480
Speaker 3: Now, you might want to just wait and see if

809
00:38:37,560 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 3: Washington's ruled out because this is Monday night. He has

810
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 3: an extra game to kind of clear the concussion protocol,

811
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:47,040
Speaker 3: so you could It's kind of like my tislab at

812
00:38:47,080 --> 00:38:49,919
Speaker 3: the other night where you kind of want to time

813
00:38:50,000 --> 00:38:51,680
Speaker 3: this right. But I think if you lock him in

814
00:38:51,680 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 3: at police plus three eighty, it's fair. But again, I

815
00:38:55,600 --> 00:38:57,440
Speaker 3: kind of want to wait to see if Washington is

816
00:38:57,480 --> 00:38:59,239
Speaker 3: held out, But either way, I like.

817
00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:03,879
Speaker 6: Move here to score, all right, Jill, who are looking

818
00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 6: at end Dolphin Steelers, Well, it's probably tricky to want

819
00:39:07,600 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 6: to take a pass catcher on the Dolphins side in

820
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:12,960
Speaker 6: cold weather, considering how Tua has played in those kind

821
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:13,440
Speaker 6: of games.

822
00:39:13,480 --> 00:39:15,920
Speaker 1: But I still think Darren Waller is the guy that

823
00:39:16,000 --> 00:39:18,279
Speaker 1: which you would want. He's a round plus two forty five.

824
00:39:18,520 --> 00:39:20,239
Speaker 1: Last week didn't really need to get used at all

825
00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,600
Speaker 1: against the Jets that was pretty much a wash, and

826
00:39:22,680 --> 00:39:25,200
Speaker 1: the week before he had just returned, so it wasn't

827
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,359
Speaker 1: really as effective. But he has seen some red zone

828
00:39:27,400 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: targets in that span. Obviously, we remember when he first arrived,

829
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:33,440
Speaker 1: you know, he scored like four touchdowns in three games.

830
00:39:33,480 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 1: So I think from a red zone standpoint, I think

831
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:38,319
Speaker 1: he's going to see some targets against the Stewarts team

832
00:39:38,320 --> 00:39:40,480
Speaker 1: that has given up some touchdowns and tight ends this year.

833
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 2: Oh yeah, they are.

834
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:44,279
Speaker 5: They're one of those teams and they're not as bad

835
00:39:44,280 --> 00:39:45,919
Speaker 5: as the Bengals, but they do give up a ton

836
00:39:46,680 --> 00:39:49,680
Speaker 5: of production to tight ends. I'm actually gonna go with

837
00:39:49,680 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 5: the wide receiver on the Dolphins, though, and it's Jaylen

838
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,840
Speaker 5: Waddle just because he's really been dominating the wide receiver

839
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,759
Speaker 5: room and the pass catcher room in general, really the

840
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 5: only guy you can depend on for a ninety percent

841
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,640
Speaker 5: snap rate, and he has by far the most expected

842
00:40:05,000 --> 00:40:08,640
Speaker 5: receiving touchdowns on the Dolphins, and he's even getting the

843
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:11,760
Speaker 5: most red zone snaps, which you know, sometimes a smaller

844
00:40:11,760 --> 00:40:14,320
Speaker 5: guy like him, you would expect, you know, that to

845
00:40:14,360 --> 00:40:16,879
Speaker 5: see a little bit of a downtick. But he's been

846
00:40:16,880 --> 00:40:20,800
Speaker 5: in there when they're in scoring position and they haven't

847
00:40:20,800 --> 00:40:23,359
Speaker 5: really trailed a ton as of a way like they've

848
00:40:23,400 --> 00:40:26,279
Speaker 5: been in a lot of games. They are underdogs here.

849
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:31,600
Speaker 5: So Waddle has seen you know, half of his touchdowns

850
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,520
Speaker 5: in these trailing game scripts, so I think there's gonna

851
00:40:34,520 --> 00:40:35,880
Speaker 5: be a little bit of an uptick there because he

852
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 5: just hasn't had many of them, so I think that

853
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:40,520
Speaker 5: could go up. But his touchdown rate in trailing game

854
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:43,799
Speaker 5: scripts is higher in terms of per reception than when

855
00:40:43,800 --> 00:40:47,400
Speaker 5: it's tied or when they are weeding. So like Jaylen

856
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:51,279
Speaker 5: Waddle at two to one, if you partway, Friarmouth and

857
00:40:51,320 --> 00:40:54,239
Speaker 5: Waller with Jaylen Waddle all higher than two to one.

858
00:40:54,320 --> 00:40:56,879
Speaker 5: Here Fried Moo's at three eighty, Darren Waller at plus

859
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:59,320
Speaker 5: two forty five, and then Wattle at plus two hundred,

860
00:40:59,640 --> 00:41:04,359
Speaker 5: you get fifty to one. Same game parlay odds at DraftKings.

861
00:41:04,400 --> 00:41:06,439
Speaker 5: All right, that is gonna wrap it for our week

862
00:41:06,480 --> 00:41:09,920
Speaker 5: fifteen Touchdown show. We'll add these anytime touchdown parlays to

863
00:41:09,960 --> 00:41:12,839
Speaker 5: the Parlay Express account and the Action Network app, So

864
00:41:13,000 --> 00:41:15,840
Speaker 5: go follow Parlay Express if you have not already, and

865
00:41:15,880 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 5: of course download the app if you haven't, and it's fun.

866
00:41:18,880 --> 00:41:22,400
Speaker 5: We track a bunch of longer shots there on that account.

867
00:41:22,440 --> 00:41:25,040
Speaker 5: And while you're looking at Parlay Express, be sure to

868
00:41:25,160 --> 00:41:28,000
Speaker 5: sign up for Action Pro it's the only way for

869
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 5: you to get the best bets, that's the best prices

870
00:41:29,920 --> 00:41:34,120
Speaker 5: with immediate notifications with action experts post their picks. You

871
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:37,120
Speaker 5: can also find quick slip links for of these bets

872
00:41:37,120 --> 00:41:39,800
Speaker 5: in the podcast or video description over the Action network

873
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:43,160
Speaker 5: dot com slash bet Now that's gonna do it for

874
00:41:43,239 --> 00:41:47,399
Speaker 5: Week fifteen, the Touchdown Show presented by DraftKings. You can

875
00:41:47,440 --> 00:41:51,120
Speaker 5: find Kerner on X at the Undersquad's maker at Chris

876
00:41:51,200 --> 00:41:54,040
Speaker 5: Raybon and of course Jill Is at G Dog five

877
00:41:54,120 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 5: thousand g Dawg five zero zero zero. We're at the

878
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:00,400
Speaker 5: same handles in the Action app Follow play book as

879
00:42:00,440 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 5: well on X and it will build you back flips

880
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,799
Speaker 5: if that's what you're looking for. Until the next time,

881
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 5: let's get this money.