WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: John Stoltzfus & Doug Irwin

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea

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<v Speaker 1>deep into twenty twenty five. It is amazing how we

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<v Speaker 1>move forward headline to headline. Thank you to Bloomberg's world

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<v Speaker 1>class headline team, invented by Matthew Winkler, pushing thirty years ago,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe more than thirty years ago. Now there's regular headlines.

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<v Speaker 1>There's headlines I never see. There's things we call a

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<v Speaker 1>red sticky, which is a bright red headline that comes out,

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<v Speaker 1>and the market churns and moves off of these. It's

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<v Speaker 1>just no other way to put it. As well. We

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<v Speaker 1>tried to recalibrate on this Friday. We did with John Stolfus,

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<v Speaker 1>the bull of Oppenheimer, and he was adamant. He reaffirms

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<v Speaker 1>because of America's innovation a bull market.

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<v Speaker 2>I'd still push against it. And I think that the

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<v Speaker 2>reason why is where we are today is we are

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<v Speaker 2>at a watershed period of innovation that is d that

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<v Speaker 2>can drive all sectors here. And it's not just about tech.

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<v Speaker 3>It's about what tech.

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<v Speaker 2>Can do for the utes. It's what it can do

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<v Speaker 2>for healthcare, It's what it can do for repurposing buildings

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<v Speaker 2>and real estate, for finding resources in consumer staples, designing

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<v Speaker 2>products for consumer discretionary This is a very this is

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<v Speaker 2>you know, it's what is it? The Chinese curses. May

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<v Speaker 2>you live in interesting times, but the other side of it,

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<v Speaker 2>for the optimists, interesting times can produce not just risks,

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<v Speaker 2>but can also produce opportunities.

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<v Speaker 3>And we, you know, when we look.

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<v Speaker 2>In hindsight, because as you know, I've been in this

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<v Speaker 2>business for over forty years, It's going to be forty

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<v Speaker 2>two sometime between Maine and May July. Oh your new kid,

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<v Speaker 2>God bless me that way.

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<v Speaker 3>The thing is, I've been there every boombust and recovery cycle,

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<v Speaker 3>and generally, when we look hindsight, in perfection says gosh,

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<v Speaker 3>if only we bought more, if only we knocked up

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<v Speaker 3>the truck.

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<v Speaker 2>When people get so negative.

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<v Speaker 1>John Stolphus of Oppenheimer and I can't say enough about

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<v Speaker 1>not only the daily nude, but just the simple equity

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<v Speaker 1>literature out of Oppenheimer and including that of their securities

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<v Speaker 1>research as well. Just any number of guests that we

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<v Speaker 1>talked to today about all going on in Washington. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the hallmarks of what we do is to try

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<v Speaker 1>to go to the source on trade. The modern source

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<v Speaker 1>is a quiet professor out of Hanover, New Hampshire. His

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<v Speaker 1>name is Douglas Irwin, and he's one of these kids

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<v Speaker 1>that came out of a PhD program years ago and

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<v Speaker 1>made a stunning, immediate splash with his book Against the Tide.

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<v Speaker 1>It is the modern History of Trade. I've read it

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<v Speaker 1>cover to cover, you know what. It's a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of heavy reading. There's not a lot of pictures to

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<v Speaker 1>you know, put it out, but it's not going to

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<v Speaker 1>be a Netflix show, but it is the bible of

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<v Speaker 1>free trade. Again, Against the Tide. We talked to Professor

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<v Speaker 1>Irwin of Dartmouth College about mister Trump's affiliation with mister

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<v Speaker 1>McKinley of the nineteenth century.

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<v Speaker 4>Well, it's interesting you bring u John Stuart Mill because

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<v Speaker 4>we're talking about the nineteenth century, and of course he

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<v Speaker 4>refers to William McKinley quite a bit, another nineteenth century

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<v Speaker 4>president who imposed tariffs to try to keep industries here

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<v Speaker 4>in the United States. You know, you can do it sometimes,

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<v Speaker 4>but the cost can be very high. You know, many

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<v Speaker 4>countries around the world try to reshore industries. So Argentina

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<v Speaker 4>has a little bastion of manufacturing in Tierra del Fuego.

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<v Speaker 4>Of all places that they've inculcated with tax subsidies and

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<v Speaker 4>important tariff tariffs. So you can reshore some industries, but

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<v Speaker 4>the question is at what price, at what cost to

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<v Speaker 4>other sectors of the economy, and is it really worth it.

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<v Speaker 1>Doug Irwin of Dartmouth again with an important foreign affairs

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<v Speaker 1>article which Bone and the Peterson Institute. I'll try to

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<v Speaker 1>get that out on social this weekend. Look for me

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<v Speaker 1>on LinkedIn and Twitter. There's the social actually, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>to be honest, folks, I've just dropped Instagram. I've just

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<v Speaker 1>given up. It's just too noisy and too many distractions.

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<v Speaker 1>And that I've really focused in on Twitter and LinkedIn

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<v Speaker 1>to get the articles out and the essays, the stuff

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<v Speaker 1>we read here at Bloomberg Surveillance. This is a podcast

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<v Speaker 1>and the best place is YouTube. Podcasts. Can't say enough

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<v Speaker 1>about a premium subscription on YouTube. That's what I do

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<v Speaker 1>and it is single best idea.