Speaker 1: Check it down Man, Now down Man. Monday morning, October
Speaker 1: us Beating the Book podcast guessing lines for week number
Speaker 1: nine in the National Football League. It's Gil Alexander, joined
Speaker 1: shortly by Chris Andrews, the South Point Hotel Casino sports
Speaker 1: book director, not in studio, but here in Las Vegas,
Speaker 1: to go through the exercise that tries to uncover value
Speaker 1: in our first look at the upcoming weekend's NFL lines.
Speaker 1: It's been phenomenal this exercise all year. We'll try to
Speaker 1: do it again today see if we can't uncover some
Speaker 1: edge in the process. Guessing lines Week nine guests along
Speaker 1: with us. It's interactive right here on the Beating the
Speaker 1: Book Podcast. Enjoy it's a numbers game with your host,
Speaker 1: Kill Alexander. Do you want told duty as to believe?
Speaker 1: It is a numbers game right here Visa The Vegas
Speaker 1: Stats in Information Network, Serious XM Channel two or four,
Speaker 1: Visa dot Com, the Visa app Phobos laying game plus
Speaker 1: all down the line. For those who are just landing
Speaker 1: on the show for the first time. What we do
Speaker 1: is it It's tribute to the old Stardust radio show
Speaker 1: that Roxy Roxboro was an integral part of many years
Speaker 1: ago where we have not seen any lines. I have
Speaker 1: a guess for every matchup that Chrissie gives me, and
Speaker 1: then he'll tell us what he's gonna put up right
Speaker 1: up after the show. Now, Uh, let's bring in the
Speaker 1: star of the show. He has the South Point Hotel
Speaker 1: Casino sports book director. Uh, and he is here in
Speaker 1: Las Vegas, but he's not in studio with us today.
Speaker 1: It is my miss book of Christy Andrews. Good morning, Chris.
Speaker 1: What's going on? How you doing? Uh? I'm doing okay,
Speaker 1: just a letterbody know, I am and out. The doctors
Speaker 1: weren't crazy about me being in a small room. Uh.
Speaker 1: No offense to anybody, but it's very vulnerable to uh,
Speaker 1: to any kind of infection. And it's probably not a
Speaker 1: good idea for two hours. I mean, I'm going to
Speaker 1: do like a fifteen minute segment, but two hours then
Speaker 1: they're probably not a good idea. That was like the
Speaker 1: doctors are like, is that Guilshaw? Is he a Petrie
Speaker 1: dish of bacteria? Stay out of his studio for two hours?
Speaker 1: That guy? They really didn't even want me coming to work,
Speaker 1: but I told listen, I have to go to work.
Speaker 1: I can't stand it. So, you know, they kind of
Speaker 1: gave me some parameters. I like working on front, and
Speaker 1: I'm not allowed to work on front. I have to
Speaker 1: work at the back. So you know, this the way
Speaker 1: it goes. Things you have to put up with. But
Speaker 1: this seems to work fine over the phones. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: we're going to do it. Seems to probably the rest
Speaker 1: of the year. Yeah, it seems to work just fine. Um, yeah,
Speaker 1: let's not get crazy. Don't do don't overdo it, don't
Speaker 1: do anything they don't want you to do. As far
Speaker 1: as your college football Saturday and your pro football Sunday,
Speaker 1: how do you do here? At the South Point College?
Speaker 1: Was pretty good, not great, but pretty good. Uh, handle
Speaker 1: was fantastic yesterday again, the handle was fantastic. You know,
Speaker 1: we we turned a very very white profit. Teasers really
Speaker 1: murdered us yesterday. Yeah, teaser cards. I know. Jimmy posted
Speaker 1: the one teaser we took for seventy thousand from a guy.
Speaker 1: That one pretty easily. But he he was not alone
Speaker 1: that one guy. A lot of guys had the same
Speaker 1: and it's not the same teas or at least the
Speaker 1: same teams. You know that that's what really hurts. Yesterday
Speaker 1: so you have the straight bets. We were actually fine,
Speaker 1: but the teasers teasers heard us a little bit beat
Speaker 1: us up. But you know what, it certainly wasn't terrible,
Speaker 1: I can tell you that, but it wasn't very good either.
Speaker 1: We made just a peanut ham sandwich for Chris Andrews
Speaker 1: and crew here at the same point. Yeah, the Stanford
Speaker 1: Loong Tampa Bay sort of textbook Tampa Bay Philadelphia teaser
Speaker 1: came through, So I would I wouldn't be surprised if
Speaker 1: that was on a lot of people's teasers teasers yesterday, Uh,
Speaker 1: if not beyond that, depending on how they decided to
Speaker 1: manipulate it. All right, So yandel and Jacksonville was the
Speaker 1: one that Jimmy takes uh tweeted out for seventy and
Speaker 1: you know, we had a lot of a lot of
Speaker 1: other teasers besides that one guy in that same one,
Speaker 1: you know, but Jacksonville. You know, well, I'm sure we'll
Speaker 1: talk about all these games, but we overen that game
Speaker 1: four and Apple was seven. That was not a good
Speaker 1: game for us. Yeah. Well, here's the thing about guessing
Speaker 1: lines this year again for people, um, it's been money
Speaker 1: in terms of the guesses sort of predicting movement in
Speaker 1: terms of the guests is actually manifesting in results led
Speaker 1: us to a couple of winners this past weekend as well.
Speaker 1: We'll see how off again, the game that featured the
Speaker 1: most furthest off I should say the furthest off guests
Speaker 1: of whole time still to be played. That's tonight between
Speaker 1: the Steelers and the Dolphins, where I guess seven and
Speaker 1: a half and it ended up being fourteen, which is
Speaker 1: just unheard of. So we'll see if we have any
Speaker 1: of those anymore. I wouldn't expect it. But let's see
Speaker 1: how far off, or how far close, or how close
Speaker 1: rather we are to some of these. And we begin,
Speaker 1: as always with Thursday night. For those again who aren't familiar,
Speaker 1: we review all of yesterday's games in the process. So
Speaker 1: let's start with Thursday, Chris. Okay, we got the forty
Speaker 1: Niners at the Cardinals. Forty Niners at Cardinals, forty Niners undefeated,
Speaker 1: along with the Patriots, the only undefeated teams in football.
Speaker 1: The Niners are seven and oh. Cardinals lose yesterday to
Speaker 1: the Saints. That was one of those games where if
Speaker 1: you looked at the box score, the Saints probably should
Speaker 1: have won that game a thousand and nothing, but Arizona
Speaker 1: hung tight for a half. It was ten to six
Speaker 1: and a half San Francisco. First of all, since they're
Speaker 1: the undefeated there on the road. Here they blew out
Speaker 1: of Carolina team that had won four straight. Jimmy Garoppolo
Speaker 1: eighteen of twenty two for one seventy five, two touchdowns
Speaker 1: and pick Kevin Coleman. If you had him on your
Speaker 1: fantasy team, you probably won. Eleven carries a hundred five yards,
Speaker 1: three touchdowns, two catches for thirteen and another touchdown a
Speaker 1: fourth touchdown as a receiver um also Emmanuel Sanders scoring
Speaker 1: in his debut. They outgained the Niners did the Carolina
Speaker 1: Panthers three eight to two thirty. In fact, rushing alone,
Speaker 1: they outgained Carolina two d thirty two yards rushing. They
Speaker 1: sacked Kyle Allen seven times, rookie Nick Bosa with three
Speaker 1: sacks to go along with an acrobatic interception in forty
Speaker 1: six yard return. Uh. And they're unbeaten fifty one to thirteen.
Speaker 1: They beat the Panthers, good Lord, fifty one to thirteen. Uh.
Speaker 1: They cover as a four point closing favorites, handily of
Speaker 1: course um highest scoring game for the Niners and twenty
Speaker 1: six years off to their best starts is winning their
Speaker 1: first ten games. In nineteen nine, they picked off three
Speaker 1: passes from Allen, who came into the game with no
Speaker 1: picks on a hundred fifty three career attempts while winning
Speaker 1: his first five starts. And then Arizona, as I mentioned,
Speaker 1: uh Kyler Murray again choppy Chris nineteen of thirty three
Speaker 1: for two twenty no touchdowns, no picks. They were two
Speaker 1: of twelve on third downs the old high leverage situations.
Speaker 1: Their three game winning streak was snapped. They were held
Speaker 1: up forty yards rushing Saints d holding them to blow
Speaker 1: two d sixty yards. By the way for the Saints,
Speaker 1: that's the fifth strade opponent they've done that too. And
Speaker 1: on defense they allowed Drew Brees to go crazy thirty
Speaker 1: four or forty three for three seventy three three touchdowns
Speaker 1: of picked for Breeze. Despite the coming back rather from
Speaker 1: thumb surgery after five weeks away, Latavia's Murray had hundred
Speaker 1: two on the ground against him. Anyway, the Saints statue
Speaker 1: is huge. Five total yards for the Saints against the Cardinals,
Speaker 1: Saints were seven of twelve on third downs. Cardinals only
Speaker 1: had the ball for twenty two minutes. So it's the
Speaker 1: it's the Niners short week here Thursday on the road
Speaker 1: at Arizona. The only thing you can compare this to
Speaker 1: is they were just on the road against Washington. Uh
Speaker 1: not this week, but last week that ended up being
Speaker 1: a slop fest, if you will, and the Niners didn't
Speaker 1: cover the ten point spread they wanted nine to nothing.
Speaker 1: I would assume this would be similar short rest here.
Speaker 1: I guess San Francisco minus ten, you're a little high.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure like your number better, but it's eight
Speaker 1: almost pretty much everywhere I see eight. I'm surprised by that.
Speaker 1: You know what, really, you know what really stuck out
Speaker 1: for me, and I know I'm starting to warm the
Speaker 1: murray a little bit for the Cardinals. I think, you know,
Speaker 1: probably wrong, really knocked them quite a bit, mostly for
Speaker 1: his size more than anything else. That's really why I'm
Speaker 1: not on the side. I just think he's too small
Speaker 1: to be a competitive quarterback in the long run. And
Speaker 1: he's sure he's been okay, so far better than I expected.
Speaker 1: I don't like the coaching staff for this Cardinal team.
Speaker 1: Yesterday they had there's my notes here, forty yards rushing.
Speaker 1: Come on, you're not helping your quarterback at all, you know.
Speaker 1: And I don't think Murray again, I don't have the
Speaker 1: box right from me. I don't even Murray at any
Speaker 1: And he's scrambled a little bit in the in past
Speaker 1: games and has done you picked up some yards on
Speaker 1: the ground, but he got sacked three times. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: they really had to air it out pretty quickly. But
Speaker 1: you know you can't. You're just not gonna win games
Speaker 1: rushing for forty yards. But you're right, you know you
Speaker 1: talked about how you look at the box score. New
Speaker 1: Orleans should have won by a million. Uh you know,
Speaker 1: I just I don't like this team right now in
Speaker 1: San Francisco is just playing fantastic football really on both
Speaker 1: sides of the ball. Um. You know their defense, well,
Speaker 1: i'll tell you what's kind of sneaking up on me.
Speaker 1: And they the best defense in the league. They might be,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be right there and uh, you know, so,
Speaker 1: I mean I'm gonna I'm gonna open eight right now
Speaker 1: just because I see nothing else. But you know, I'm
Speaker 1: not sure. I don't like this a little bit higher either,
Speaker 1: like the home teams a little bit on these Stursday
Speaker 1: night games. That San Francisco is just way too tough,
Speaker 1: and this is another coaching mismatch along with talent. So
Speaker 1: San Francisco, you know, I'm gonna open eight, but if
Speaker 1: I see it creeping higher, I'm gonna go higher with it.
Speaker 1: Those of us who have the Niners to win the
Speaker 1: NFC West, I haven't at plus three ninety five feeling
Speaker 1: pretty good, although that is you know what, the Seahawks
Speaker 1: and Rams aren't that far behind. If you look at
Speaker 1: the NFC standings here and again we're not quite at
Speaker 1: the halfway point for everybody yet. But if you look
Speaker 1: at the NFC, you'll get one team out of the East,
Speaker 1: Cowboys or Eagles, then probably one team out of the South,
Speaker 1: probably the Saints apologies to Panthers fans um. And then
Speaker 1: there's five other teams competing for four spots. So between
Speaker 1: Green Bay, Minnesota, San Francisco, Seattle, and the Rams, one
Speaker 1: of those teams, it appears anyway now, is going to
Speaker 1: miss the postseason. Um. So that's that's pretty top heavy
Speaker 1: in those two divisions. But the Niners looking as pretty
Speaker 1: as anybody. Seven and oh with a plus one thirty
Speaker 1: point differential through seven games. Uh, that is New England esque.
Speaker 1: Not quite New England is plus one eight nine through
Speaker 1: eight games. But San Francisco, man, they started out with
Speaker 1: some strange games, some strange outcomes. Barely beat Tampa Bay,
Speaker 1: barely beat Pittsburgh, and now they're looking just as fine
Speaker 1: as ever. So San Francisco in the end an eight
Speaker 1: point road favorite. I am a little surprised by that.
Speaker 1: I would imagine people will just bet San Francisco now
Speaker 1: on that number. Yeah, I do too. And then considering
Speaker 1: the success that the teasers teaser players had this past week,
Speaker 1: you can see the the Niners is gonna be the
Speaker 1: first team on a whole bunch of teasers. So look
Speaker 1: for a jacked up money line on the Niners, and
Speaker 1: we'll be trying to get as much cardinal money as
Speaker 1: we can. And I'm sure when they kicked off on
Speaker 1: Thursday night, we're gonna be rooting for a cardinal upset.
Speaker 1: And I don't know, it's to tell you the truth.
Speaker 1: So the crazy things happened in the NFL, that's definitely
Speaker 1: what we'll be rooting for. Yeah, if nothing else, you'd
Speaker 1: imagine it would be at nine for teaser protection, right,
Speaker 1: but no eight, you're telling me, Yeah, interesting, Yeah, that's why.
Speaker 1: That's another reason why if I see it creeping up,
Speaker 1: I'm definitely gonna go because, yeah, we got to protect
Speaker 1: the shirts against some teasers. But if I open it nine,
Speaker 1: then they're gonna grab it right away, and then that
Speaker 1: doesn't give me the leverage to go back to nine
Speaker 1: once the teasers players start coming in like on you know,
Speaker 1: usually like Thursday, when they'll start playing it, you know.
Speaker 1: So that's the strategy of bookmaking. You there is a
Speaker 1: little the strategy of bookmaking with Chris Andrews. Ye, all right,
Speaker 1: let's let's do a Sunday morning game while we're here Funday,
Speaker 1: early in the morning, six star Oh uh game that London. Obviously,
Speaker 1: I was gonna say Houston and Jacksonville, one of those
Speaker 1: Jacksonville home games in London that we get every year.
Speaker 1: So six thirty Pacific, nine thirty Eastern is what you're
Speaker 1: saying here state side Jacksonville. Then I gave this last
Speaker 1: year Jacksonville. The franchise gets fifteen percent of their total
Speaker 1: income from this game in London. So if Jacksonville had
Speaker 1: their way, they'd play in London all the time, That's
Speaker 1: why they're there every week every year. Rather so Houston
Speaker 1: at Jacksonville at London early early on Sunday. Houston coming
Speaker 1: off a just a Superman performance, a Superman final touchdown
Speaker 1: from Shawn Watson. Watson was thirty nine for two seventy
Speaker 1: nine in this game yesterday, three touchdowns, no picks. Of course,
Speaker 1: his favorite target, DeAndre Hopkins eleven catches for one oh
Speaker 1: nine that of course in Houston's win over Oakland, come
Speaker 1: from behind winn to twenty four, don't quite cover the
Speaker 1: five and a half point spread, but Houston gets the win.
Speaker 1: Uh they lost, however, did Houston J J. Watt to
Speaker 1: a season ending injury pectoral muscle. J. J. Watt done
Speaker 1: for the year. But there were about six and a
Speaker 1: half minutes left the game. They play on. Referring to
Speaker 1: six and a half minutes left in the game. Watson
Speaker 1: hits his tight end Fells on the nine yard touchdown
Speaker 1: pass put Houston four, which was the eventual final score.
Speaker 1: It was the first lead of the game for them.
Speaker 1: Watson takes a cleat above his left eye. He adjust
Speaker 1: his helmet midplay. Still couldn't really see, so he just
Speaker 1: sort of tosses the ball toward the end zone where
Speaker 1: he expected Darren Fells to be, and sure enough, that's
Speaker 1: where Darren Fells was. Houston holds on. By the way,
Speaker 1: they forced to punt at Houston on the next drive.
Speaker 1: When garyon Conley, who was traded to them from Oakland
Speaker 1: this week, knocked down a pass, it's Rail Williams on
Speaker 1: third down. So a lot of players making quick impact
Speaker 1: on their new teams. We just mentioned Manuel Sanders in
Speaker 1: the previou his game Jacksonville. They they get it done.
Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew, for for as great as Deshaun Watson was,
Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew had some highlights as well, some escape jobs
Speaker 1: twenty two of thirty four for two seventy nine, three touchdowns.
Speaker 1: Note Picks also scrambled for twenty eight yards, which included
Speaker 1: three first downs. So he is real judicious on the scrambles.
Speaker 1: And it does sort of, you know, bring to mind
Speaker 1: when Nick Foles comes back, and that will be in
Speaker 1: three weeks. That's when he's eligible to return from from
Speaker 1: an injured reserve from his collarbone injury, broken collar bone.
Speaker 1: What will they do? What will they do? It's the
Speaker 1: old American Express Commercial Leonard Fournette yesterday nineteam carries for
Speaker 1: seventy six yards. He got sixty six of the seventy
Speaker 1: six on his very first carry of the day. I
Speaker 1: believe it was Jacksonville's first or second play from scrimmage,
Speaker 1: which means the rest of the time he had eighteen
Speaker 1: carries for ten yards on the ground. He did catch
Speaker 1: seven passes for sixty yards. UH Chris Conley four for
Speaker 1: one h three and a touchdown. DJ Shark uh six
Speaker 1: for seven nine and a touchdown. They were eight of
Speaker 1: seventeen on third downs. Was Jacksonville against the New York
Speaker 1: Jets in Jacksonville's um was the final score there twenty
Speaker 1: nine to fifteen win over the Jets, as seven point
Speaker 1: favorites outgained the Jets three eight nine to two thirteen.
Speaker 1: They sacked Sam Donald eight times for fifty one yards.
Speaker 1: Seventh straight year now playing at Wembley for the Jaguars
Speaker 1: because it's jack because this game is in London, and
Speaker 1: I know I was just saying Jacksonville loves playing in London.
Speaker 1: But as far as making the line, if this were
Speaker 1: in Jacksonville, I would say it would be Houston minus
Speaker 1: four and a half, but because of the travel, it
Speaker 1: mitigates it a bit minus four. Let's say I'll just
Speaker 1: say it's Houston minus three at Jacksonville, which is at London. Really, well,
Speaker 1: we see this game differently. Uh, you like three, it's
Speaker 1: two and I'll playing I think this game should be
Speaker 1: closer to pick. I think that J. J. Watt injury
Speaker 1: something that really bothers me here for Houston, and you
Speaker 1: know they they won the game yesterday. I mean really
Speaker 1: opening was was in it the whole way. Things I
Speaker 1: like about Jackson, Well, first of all, we know that
Speaker 1: the wife guys read Jackson will with any excuse they
Speaker 1: can have to bet him. Uh you know minshow not bad.
Speaker 1: He's pretty good quarterback. He's played well he uh he
Speaker 1: got sacked twice, but for one yard told um it
Speaker 1: was QBR eight and five point six three touchdowns mill
Speaker 1: interceptions UM eight point two yards per attempt. You know,
Speaker 1: uh they you mentioned that they sacked the Jets, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, Donald eight times. So they're getting pretty good
Speaker 1: played on the offensive and defensive line of Houston. You know,
Speaker 1: moving what I think me is quite a bit. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, they really had some miracle plays. I mean
Speaker 1: I saw that played from Watson. I mean, you know,
Speaker 1: is it the play of the year? I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean it's it's it's a great play. I can
Speaker 1: tell you that. Can you rely on that every week?
Speaker 1: I don't think so. But the kid is a fantastic quarterback.
Speaker 1: But you know, certainly one of the young stars in
Speaker 1: this league. Um, but I don't know. I think this
Speaker 1: game should be closer to pick on myself, you know,
Speaker 1: I really do. So I'm gonna open too. I see
Speaker 1: two am two and a half. I'm gonna open the
Speaker 1: game too. And uh, I guess we're gonna disagree on
Speaker 1: this one, my friend. Well, so you like my San
Speaker 1: Francisco number at ten, you didn't. You didn't like this
Speaker 1: one as much you like the other the other way
Speaker 1: on this? Um yeah, DraftKings has has some m v
Speaker 1: P odds up right now. Jeff Deshaun Watson is the
Speaker 1: fourth shortest shot at seven to one in the never
Speaker 1: ending roller coaster that is m v P thoughts this
Speaker 1: year from week to weeks. Ely Aaron Rodgers right now
Speaker 1: plus two seventy five Russell Wilson, who I have at
Speaker 1: five to one. Uh ticket here in town is three
Speaker 1: to one over their DraftKings, Lamar Jackson six to one
Speaker 1: and then Deshaun seven to one. Would you bet to
Speaker 1: Shawn there, Jeff, of the four you gave me, that's
Speaker 1: by far the best value. What happens if Houston goes
Speaker 1: eleven and five without what now and it's gonna be
Speaker 1: on Watson and the offense, that seems pretty good to me.
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes tend to one, by the way, for those wondering,
Speaker 1: fifth short of ship tend to one in draft Kings
Speaker 1: in New Jersey. And I know he wasn't add. I
Speaker 1: think it was like plus one forty or something I
Speaker 1: get before he got hurt. The Chiefs are hoping he
Speaker 1: can come back, like they were even thinking about it
Speaker 1: briefly about this week, so he could be back way soon,
Speaker 1: you know. Yeah, they ain't got a big game coming up,
Speaker 1: and I'm sure we'll talk about that in a little bit. Okay,
Speaker 1: we'll do the uh So that's a Thursday night to
Speaker 1: San Francisco, Arizona early early on Sunday the London game
Speaker 1: between the Texans and the Jaguars, which obviously uh implications
Speaker 1: large implications in the a f C South with Houston
Speaker 1: at five and three, Jacksonville at four and four. Both
Speaker 1: of those teams chasing the Indianapolis Colts will do Sunday
Speaker 1: morning games state side Sunday morning. That is the standard
Speaker 1: ten am Pacific one pm Eastern times a lot um.
Speaker 1: We'll go through them all and review, of course, everything
Speaker 1: that happened last week right here on a numbers game
Speaker 1: guessing lines with Chris Andrews right here at Visa. Welcome
Speaker 1: back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander, a numbers
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Speaker 1: m g M app. We're guessing lines for Week nine
Speaker 1: in the National Football League. Skill Alexander. It's Chrissie Andrews.
Speaker 1: Christie not in studio, but on the phone with us
Speaker 1: once again this morning. Chris, let us continue with the
Speaker 1: early games. The early slated games on Sunday, your Washington
Speaker 1: Redskins at Buffalow the one in seven Washington Redskins. Is
Speaker 1: that what you're referring? Uh, well, Washington with the Redskins
Speaker 1: with extra rest here, they were outgained by the Vikings
Speaker 1: on Thursday night, four thirty four to to sixteen. Case
Speaker 1: Keenum was twelve of sixteen for one thirty, no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: no picks, and he gave way to Dwayne Haskins after
Speaker 1: a concussion. Dwayne Haskins was three of five for thirty three,
Speaker 1: one touchdown, two picks. So we don't know who's starting
Speaker 1: at quarterback for the Redskins. Let's just start there. I'm
Speaker 1: not sure it matters, but yes, it actually kind of
Speaker 1: does matter because it goes from bad dwors. I think
Speaker 1: people would agree. Haskins just doesn't seem to be ready.
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills yesterday. Uh they lose and lose pretty handily
Speaker 1: to the Philadelphia Eagles. Uh they lose at home thirty
Speaker 1: one to thirteen. They were one point closing favorites. So Buffalo,
Speaker 1: now if you go through their schedule this year, Uh, Buffalo,
Speaker 1: they beat the Jets, they came back from sixteen to nothing,
Speaker 1: They beat the Giants, they beat the Bengals, They lost
Speaker 1: to the Patriots, they beat the Titans, they beat the Dolphins,
Speaker 1: they lost to the Eagles. So basically they've beaten Uh,
Speaker 1: they've been a bully, they've beaten all the bad teams,
Speaker 1: and they've lost twice to the good ones. Very sort
Speaker 1: of succinctly stated. It was a game the Eagles blew
Speaker 1: open by scoring touchdowns eighty three seconds apart. Yesterday, spanning
Speaker 1: half time. Final minutes of the first half, with the
Speaker 1: Eagles trailing seven to three, Buffalo had a third and
Speaker 1: two from its twenty eight Alan was running to his
Speaker 1: right with the ball tucked under his arm and then
Speaker 1: got knocked loose. Then Carson Wentz hits a wide open
Speaker 1: tight end in the end zone. Five plays later, Sanders
Speaker 1: then takes off Miles Sanders does on the second stafform
Speaker 1: scrimmage in the third quarter, sixty five yard touchdown. And
Speaker 1: it was sort of like that Green Bay Oakland thing
Speaker 1: last week where it just went from a really close
Speaker 1: game to a sort of fade out complete at that point. Um,
Speaker 1: and so Buffalo has got this question mark around can
Speaker 1: they beat anybody? Uh, They've faced just one opponent, New England,
Speaker 1: that ended the weekend with a winning record. They were
Speaker 1: coming off a week in which they had rallied remember
Speaker 1: to beat the Dolphins. They had to rally from a
Speaker 1: five point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Dolphins. They
Speaker 1: gave up two hundred and thirteen rushing yards yesterday to
Speaker 1: the Eagle, and again Josh Allen fumbled three times, lost
Speaker 1: only one of them. But he did, uh show again
Speaker 1: that he's loose with the football sometimes. So it's Washington
Speaker 1: at Buffalo. You know, we talked about the NFC playoff
Speaker 1: picture sort of de facto halfway through the season. Buffalo
Speaker 1: is a game and a half clear of everybody else
Speaker 1: at the playoffs or to begin now, and their schedule
Speaker 1: looks pretty easy moving forward. Uh, I won't get much
Speaker 1: easier than this home game against the Redskins. I'll say
Speaker 1: Buffalo minus ten and a half. Once again, I like
Speaker 1: your number a little better. It's a pretty solid ten.
Speaker 1: I see a couple of ten and a half, but
Speaker 1: with big juice on the dog. So I'm gonna open
Speaker 1: a ten, just again, a strategic move that uh, Like
Speaker 1: I said, if I commit myself too early, then I
Speaker 1: am committed. If I open ten, it's more of you know,
Speaker 1: kind of a right down the middle play but if
Speaker 1: I see that going higher, and I think it will
Speaker 1: and I think it should, I am gonna I am
Speaker 1: gonna jack mine up then too. Let mean a couple
Speaker 1: of things. First of all, I think the reason we're
Speaker 1: seeing this so low. The total I'm looking at it's
Speaker 1: like third six and a half thirty seven, so they're
Speaker 1: not expecting too much scoring out of this game. Now,
Speaker 1: one of the things that we do, I mean just
Speaker 1: probably just about every legitimate bookmaker I know, does this,
Speaker 1: you know, allow parlays of uh, you know, a big,
Speaker 1: big point spread to the total whether you're betting favorite
Speaker 1: and over or dog and under. I mean, there is
Speaker 1: a mathematical correlation to that parliament and it is not
Speaker 1: held held form this year in the NFL. And I'm
Speaker 1: looking yesterday, there's like three pretty big point spreads, looking
Speaker 1: at the Rams, I'm looking at the Saints, and I'm
Speaker 1: looking at New England, all double digit point spreads. Every
Speaker 1: one of those favorites covered and every game went under.
Speaker 1: So it's very strange. That is not the way the
Speaker 1: NFL has been playing, uh really since I've been booking.
Speaker 1: And I don't know if this is an aberration. I
Speaker 1: don't know this is kind of like the new the
Speaker 1: new NFL with the halves and the half not you know,
Speaker 1: I don't know that I'm ready to commit to that.
Speaker 1: But this is the case here again you have a
Speaker 1: high point spread and a low total. I would not
Speaker 1: be surprised if it was favorite none. I wouldn't be
Speaker 1: surprised if you saw seventeen to three final in a
Speaker 1: game like this, not be surprised at all. Jeff, did
Speaker 1: we can? Did we copyright? Have it? Have it not? S?
Speaker 1: As it pertains the sports on the show? Did we
Speaker 1: copy right? There? A? Sorry? Go ahead and I'm sorry, Chris,
Speaker 1: I didn't realize that. Sorry, but yeah, I know. Tell
Speaker 1: Jeff to work on network please. It's like, yeah, like
Speaker 1: I should have copied righted? Please or the company do
Speaker 1: it instead? Yeah? Another one by growing books anyway. You know,
Speaker 1: you know what happens to b R was gil Oh,
Speaker 1: I didn't see this? What was it? Zero point zero?
Speaker 1: Is that good? Is that good? Yeah? That is not
Speaker 1: that I had to look again that you know it
Speaker 1: looks I mean zero points. They played late last night
Speaker 1: and they had trouble calculating that if they played on
Speaker 1: Thursday three, three or five for thirty three yards, no touchdowns,
Speaker 1: one pick, two sacks for yards. Yeah yeah, and you
Speaker 1: know Keenum just you know, he wasn't that bad, you know,
Speaker 1: and of course Washington did cover, so you know they
Speaker 1: were fine with me. Anyway, I'm gonna open ten, but
Speaker 1: I really if I see this one higher, I'd like
Speaker 1: it higher. You know, it's uh, this could be another
Speaker 1: favorite favorite nunder game, even with a high points written
Speaker 1: low total Redskins two weeks ago. Once again, the feats
Speaker 1: of the Washington Redskins two weeks ago, second team in
Speaker 1: a quarter century to score zero points and cover that
Speaker 1: in their game against the Niners. And then last week
Speaker 1: uh did not force a single punt and still managed
Speaker 1: to cover against the Minnesota Right, I did realized that
Speaker 1: they did not force a single punt. Yes, so what
Speaker 1: feet of points spread? You know? Uh, amazement? Can they
Speaker 1: achieve against the Bills. So I said ten and a half.
Speaker 1: I love it when you say you you prefer my number,
Speaker 1: but you're opening it at ten. I am, like I said,
Speaker 1: I'll just be committing myself too early. And but if
Speaker 1: I see it going higher, I definitely like a Yeah.
Speaker 1: For DC fans, we'll talk about baseball real briefly moving
Speaker 1: forward here because we will have baseball tomorrow. Obviously, as
Speaker 1: as I know, some of my d C buddies attended
Speaker 1: games three, four and five this weekend did not go
Speaker 1: their way, all right? What's next? Tennessee at Carolina. Tennessee
Speaker 1: at Carolina at four and four. Tennessee four and three Carolina,
Speaker 1: Ryan Tannehill and the Titans yesterday. Tannehill was thirty three
Speaker 1: for three touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times.
Speaker 1: Titans led this game against Tampa Bay yesterday fourteen to
Speaker 1: three after turning a pair of first quarter turnovers into
Speaker 1: two touchdown asses by Ryan Tannehill. They forced f Jamis
Speaker 1: Winston turnovers and all Bucks drove to the Titans thirty two.
Speaker 1: Had the two minute warning to think over a play
Speaker 1: for fourth at one. This was the deciding play of
Speaker 1: the game. And what did they come up with? A
Speaker 1: handoff to Peyton Barber and out of the shotgun. By
Speaker 1: the way, I want to point that out, Jaral Casey,
Speaker 1: Jim Brown. They stopped him short. Casey said he heard
Speaker 1: the protection call. He knew the Bucks would run as
Speaker 1: a result of the protection call. Uh he recovered the
Speaker 1: fumble at the goal line did Casey last week to
Speaker 1: preserve the three point went over the Chargers. Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: had a final chance, by the way, getting the ball
Speaker 1: back with forty two seconds Logan Ryan picked off Jamis
Speaker 1: Winston eighteen seconds left to see all the win. However,
Speaker 1: Tennessee was the beneficiary of a They attempted a fake
Speaker 1: field goal with just under four minutes left in this
Speaker 1: game whistle and there was a fumble whistle blew on
Speaker 1: the return should have been a Tampa Bay touchdown. The
Speaker 1: whistle gets the best of the of the Buccaneers. Titans
Speaker 1: able to hold on to victory in this ballgame again
Speaker 1: by the final score of twenty seven to twenty three.
Speaker 1: They end up covering the two points spread, but this
Speaker 1: could have just as easily been a Tampa Bay win.
Speaker 1: Not just because of that play the whistle that prevents
Speaker 1: the return for a touchdown, but this was also you
Speaker 1: know we talked about New Orleans. If you look at
Speaker 1: that box score, should have one by a thousand. If
Speaker 1: you looked at this box score at halftime, Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: should have been way up in that football game, but
Speaker 1: they weren't. Uh the turnovers to get you and then
Speaker 1: Carolina as we talked about before, Carolina loses San Francisco
Speaker 1: get housed fifty one to thirteen as Kyle Allen comes
Speaker 1: back to Earth nineteen of thirty seven for Alan hundred
Speaker 1: fifty eight yards, no touchdowns, three picks sacked again seven
Speaker 1: times on a day uh where we were able to
Speaker 1: see Cam Newton in warmups for the first time. So
Speaker 1: maybe Cam Newton is on the doorstep of coming back.
Speaker 1: McCaffrey still fills up a box score fourteen carries a
Speaker 1: hundred seventeen yards, a touchdown, four catches thirty eight yards.
Speaker 1: Tennessee at Carolina Carolina minus four and a app Uh
Speaker 1: it's three and a half. UM debating on this one.
Speaker 1: Between three and three and a half because I think, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, Tennessee, you kind of talked about it. They
Speaker 1: did not look particularly good yesterday. Still much sure about
Speaker 1: Danny all I mean, the guy has been around a
Speaker 1: long time, but he is better than Mariota. I still
Speaker 1: like Rabel as a coach. I think he's gonna I
Speaker 1: think he's gonna do well eventually once he finds his quarterback, which, hey,
Speaker 1: let's face it, some guys never do. Carolina, though I
Speaker 1: just would would bug me about Carolina was their offensive
Speaker 1: and defensive line play we talked about. You know, the
Speaker 1: fourty nine has really dominated both sides of the ball.
Speaker 1: And uh, where's my note here? Uh, Kyle Allen, if
Speaker 1: you're looking at h qb R, he would have had
Speaker 1: the lowest QBR the day four point seven if it
Speaker 1: wasn't Perhapskins. Well that's right, Dapkins played Thursday, So I
Speaker 1: guess that the day, Uh Kyle Allen was low man
Speaker 1: on the total poll four point seven, Um fact seven times.
Speaker 1: You know. It's just boy, that's you know that that
Speaker 1: just bugs me. I don't like one teams can't perform
Speaker 1: in the trenches. Um. You know. So I was debating
Speaker 1: between three and three and a half, So I'm gonna
Speaker 1: going three and a half at this point. I think
Speaker 1: your numbers a little bit high. But I do know
Speaker 1: what you're saying about Tennessee being extremely fortunate to win
Speaker 1: that game is uay. That was one of the games
Speaker 1: I gave out last Monday. I like Tennessee a lot
Speaker 1: against Tampa Bay and they had them in the contests
Speaker 1: that I'm in, and I know it's pretty fortunate to win.
Speaker 1: And this game is kind of tough. The handicap, But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with three and a half. Yeah if
Speaker 1: that's three, and maybe even if three and a half,
Speaker 1: but certainly if it's three, I would be all over
Speaker 1: Caroline again, you know, not not that a box score
Speaker 1: means everything, but three to two six in total yardage
Speaker 1: in favor of the Bucks. But it was those four turnovers,
Speaker 1: right and in a minus three or plus three from
Speaker 1: a Tennessee side plus three turnover differential, not to mention
Speaker 1: the fact that Tampa Bay com made a nine enalies
Speaker 1: and on the Carolina side. I mean, you can make
Speaker 1: the case Carolina got crushed by maybe the best team
Speaker 1: in the NFC, if not the National Football League, in
Speaker 1: the San Francisco Forts. I don't think that's hyperbole at
Speaker 1: this point to say that they could be the best
Speaker 1: team in the NFC. So for me, if that's only three,
Speaker 1: I would be all over Carolina. Whether it was Alan Well,
Speaker 1: I don't want to say whether it was Alan or
Speaker 1: Cam Newton because I don't love Kim Newton. But but
Speaker 1: I would gravitate towards Carolina there um much like I
Speaker 1: would gravitate towards San Francisco in that Thursday Night line
Speaker 1: if that's only eight. So I would I would love
Speaker 1: Carolina in that game because I just don't think Tennessee.
Speaker 1: I mean, think about it. They're winning these games miraculously, um,
Speaker 1: and they really needed Jamis to be Jamis. So I
Speaker 1: like Carolina. They're based on this exercise. Let's do, let's do,
Speaker 1: let's go, let's do one more before break. Okay, it's
Speaker 1: a good game. Wow. The beginning of the year, it's
Speaker 1: looks like it was gonna be a good game. I'm
Speaker 1: not so sure. Now. Chicago at Philadelphia, man Chicago three
Speaker 1: and four, Philadelphia four and four. Uh. Montgomery showed up
Speaker 1: out of the Bears backfield. Let's give him that. Twenty
Speaker 1: seven carries a hundred thirty five yards for David Montgomery
Speaker 1: and a touchdown in Chicago's seventeen to sixteen loss at
Speaker 1: home to the Chargers. Uh. Chicago closes a three and
Speaker 1: a half point favorite in that game. Mitch R. Biskuite
Speaker 1: twenty two of thirty five for two fifty three, zero touchdowns,
Speaker 1: one pick, four times sacked. That's the thing with Rabisky.
Speaker 1: When you look at the box score at the end
Speaker 1: of the game, it never looks as bad as the performance.
Speaker 1: But they were out first down, if you will, by
Speaker 1: the Chargers twenty to eleven. They're out gained by the
Speaker 1: Chargers three to thirty one. They were out rushed one
Speaker 1: sixty two to thirty six. That can't be right. If
Speaker 1: Montgomery had all those that that's that's status. That's that
Speaker 1: is incorrect. Forgive me for that. But they were out
Speaker 1: in terms of time of possession thirty eight minutes to
Speaker 1: twenty two minutes in favor of the Chargers. Um so
Speaker 1: Eddie narrow mses a forty one yard field goal as
Speaker 1: time expires. Chargers hang on for the seventeen to sixteen win.
Speaker 1: The Bears took over at their thirty five yard line
Speaker 1: with one thirty three remaining. They had a chance to
Speaker 1: win it after driving all the way to the twenty
Speaker 1: one and then they had Matt Naggie has Mitch Robiskie
Speaker 1: take a knee with about forty seconds left rather than
Speaker 1: try to get closer to the goal line. Pinniro, who
Speaker 1: had hidden upright on a miss earlier in the game,
Speaker 1: then hooks the potential winner wide left as time expires.
Speaker 1: Third straight loss for the Bears. Uh they came away
Speaker 1: with just here's the here's the real thing. They came
Speaker 1: away with just one touchdown and three field goals in
Speaker 1: five trips inside the twenty in this game. Um, not good.
Speaker 1: So a lot to answer for. And Matt Naggie couldn't
Speaker 1: have been more bitter and belligerent in the postgame press
Speaker 1: conference when pressed on you know, taking a knee late. Um.
Speaker 1: So that's great Philadelphia, as we mentioned, big win over Buffalo,
Speaker 1: they get back to five hundred. They were eight of
Speaker 1: fifteen on third downs, two eighteen rushing yards, held Buffalo
Speaker 1: of just two d fifty three total yards UM. And
Speaker 1: it's it's interesting with Philadelphia because in this recency, that
Speaker 1: is the NFL recency of a league, or how people
Speaker 1: perceive it. Horrible performance at Dallas Sunday night. Orlando Scandrick
Speaker 1: on the way out criticizes all the Eagles leaders. Uh,
Speaker 1: Lane Johnson, raising questions by suggesting that some of his
Speaker 1: teammates were shown up late for team meetings. But uh,
Speaker 1: they all rallied and now they open up a three
Speaker 1: game homestand with this one's I'll say Philadelphia minus four
Speaker 1: and a half. It's four and a half and five
Speaker 1: a little bit more five. But I like the higher
Speaker 1: number here. I like five, maybe even five and a half.
Speaker 1: I one five and a half and not not a
Speaker 1: place I particularly respect. I'm I might open five and
Speaker 1: a half. Um, I'm gonna kind of debate between now
Speaker 1: and nine o'clock when we actually open, but put me
Speaker 1: down for five right now. But I want to go
Speaker 1: as high as I can't hit verse. I think it's
Speaker 1: a big coaching mismatch. Uh. Second, I think I've been
Speaker 1: eating all the year for for the real four they'la
Speaker 1: to show up, as I think they are a pretty
Speaker 1: good team. I thought Carson Wentz really played well yesterday
Speaker 1: and a matter of fact, i'm looking he had the
Speaker 1: highest QBR of anybody, uh eighty nine point four yesterday.
Speaker 1: They ran the ball well, Howard at twenty three carries
Speaker 1: ninety six yards. They played against a very good defense too,
Speaker 1: and also would would as a little bit of a
Speaker 1: tipoff sometimes. All the wise guys were on Philadelphia that
Speaker 1: that was definitely a Wise played yes, but the public
Speaker 1: was pretty firmly behind Buffalo, And once again, I think
Speaker 1: that is a tipoff because I think Buffalo, which we
Speaker 1: talked about a little earlier against the Redskins, but they
Speaker 1: are kind of like the schoolyard bully. I think they
Speaker 1: get beat up a lot of bad teams. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure how good they are against good teams. And I
Speaker 1: think Philly is a pretty good team. I think that
Speaker 1: team is getting it together. In Chicago, boy, I mean Trabisky,
Speaker 1: his coach isn't help with him. I could tell you that,
Speaker 1: I know, Mike green Mike green Burgh says that, you know,
Speaker 1: and I think I've repeated it too. They ruin more
Speaker 1: quarterbacks than they develop in this league, and Travisky might
Speaker 1: be on that the low end of that spectrum. They're
Speaker 1: not doing much to help this kid. And you know
Speaker 1: that that decision to put it in the hands of
Speaker 1: a a very heffy kicker at the end of the game,
Speaker 1: and that was just the poor decision. And they talked about, wow,
Speaker 1: we didn't want to run the ball and lose uh,
Speaker 1: lose yardage? We had Montgomery and what what were saying,
Speaker 1: I can't remember, what do you have a hundred twenty
Speaker 1: seven yards or hundred thirty five yards? Geez? Yeah, afraid
Speaker 1: of him losing yardage and putting in the field goal
Speaker 1: kicker in a worst position. And that just doesn't make
Speaker 1: any sense to me, and uh, you know, I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't like that, but so I like the higher
Speaker 1: number here open five. If I see it going higher,
Speaker 1: I will creeping higher. If I see four and app
Speaker 1: and five, I'm gonna be on the higher end of that. Yeah,
Speaker 1: just to be consistent. We'll get to this game coming up.
Speaker 1: And Indian Apples almost did this same thing. They settled for.
Speaker 1: It seemed like they said for an Adam minitary fifty plus.
Speaker 1: I was saying the same thing, and that one went through,
Speaker 1: and I was like, oh, never in doubt, you know. Uh,
Speaker 1: so curious decisions on both both team sports. We'll get back.
Speaker 1: We'll do more of this. Uh, it's week nine. We're
Speaker 1: guessing lines. I see value already. It's a numbers game
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Speaker 1: kill Alexander to believe in Adam Lids guessing lines Week
Speaker 1: nine in the National Football League. That's what we're doing
Speaker 1: right here on the numbers game Visa dot com the
Speaker 1: Visa app serious except Channel two oh four skill. Alexander
Speaker 1: Jeff Parlay, producing number five is here as well. And
Speaker 1: Chris Andrews, star of the show, the director of the
Speaker 1: South Point Hotel Casino sports book, kind enough to join
Speaker 1: us once again each and every Monday, dutifully just a
Speaker 1: warrior on the show, Chrissie. But I you were rudely interrupted.
Speaker 1: Do you want to say something else about the baseball here?
Speaker 1: I apologize for no, no, no, I'm laughing. But that's
Speaker 1: why I'm in studio. I mean, it's working fine on
Speaker 1: the phone that I'd rather be in studio so I
Speaker 1: can see the quawk running not a little bit. I
Speaker 1: understand how radio works. I'm a veteran Jill, so yeah,
Speaker 1: I do. But your point was well taken. And that's
Speaker 1: the thing about baseball, right, Momentum is only as good
Speaker 1: as your next starting pitcher. So uh, it's still anybody's
Speaker 1: ball game Houston and the Nationals game six tomorrow night.
Speaker 1: We'll have Paul Sport on tomorrow, will have Jason Weingarten
Speaker 1: will do all of that. Tomorrow. Let us resume Week
Speaker 1: nine guessing lines. I think I still think we're on
Speaker 1: early games. Where do we leave off? Yeah, Unfortunately there's
Speaker 1: no line on this game, and it could be the
Speaker 1: best match of the weekend Minnesota at Kansas City. And
Speaker 1: right now I see no numbers at all because we
Speaker 1: just don't know about my Homes. Um you know, now,
Speaker 1: you know, More really played well. I was shocked how
Speaker 1: well he played. You know, they didn't cover last probably
Speaker 1: you know, but he played really well. But I mean, really,
Speaker 1: it's got to be you know, about a seven point difference,
Speaker 1: you know, at the least with between him and Mahomes.
Speaker 1: But we can't have a can't have a point spread
Speaker 1: with that quarterback being a questionable. Yeah, I mean, if
Speaker 1: it's more right, So More, by the way, you're right,
Speaker 1: twenty four or thirty six yesterday for two sixty seven,
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, no pick um, dislocated kneecap is why Mahomes,
Speaker 1: the reigning league m VP, is still out. But the
Speaker 1: Chiefs actually hoped at one point that Mahomes kind of
Speaker 1: went under the radar for me. They hoped that he
Speaker 1: could make a recovery, uh and play in this game. Um,
Speaker 1: so that was you know, that was pretty interesting to me.
Speaker 1: So they are really hoping he can play in this
Speaker 1: game against Minnesota. They trailed did the Chiefs fourteen and nothing?
Speaker 1: But they led seventeen to fourteen at halftime. Uh, they
Speaker 1: were pretty good on third down six of eleven, but
Speaker 1: they end up losing the game last night four You're right,
Speaker 1: they were five point dogs, so they didn't cover. Probably
Speaker 1: should have, but Aaron Rodgers was a superman. But it's
Speaker 1: Minnesota at Kan's City. And so you know, this was
Speaker 1: Green Bay at Kansas City and it's Matt More. If
Speaker 1: it's Matt More, I would imagine the line should be similar.
Speaker 1: I would have it at like Minnesota minus three and
Speaker 1: a half or something like that. But obviously if it's
Speaker 1: if it's Mahomes, you know, that shifts greatly in in
Speaker 1: the swings all the way past the three for Kansas City. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so that's why he's about a seven point difference I
Speaker 1: think in your game, you know, and as good as
Speaker 1: Matt Moore. Put I say one thing about Andy Reid.
Speaker 1: There's so many things I like about Andy Reid. Why
Speaker 1: did he punt the ball in the game? Yeah, I'm
Speaker 1: sitting Amazon, what you You're never going to see the
Speaker 1: ball again? And of course he didn't. Of course he didn't.
Speaker 1: And uh, you know, I mean, yeah, I needed Kansas
Speaker 1: City pretty good last night you know, for the sports book.
Speaker 1: But you know, so obviously I was rooting for him,
Speaker 1: but man, oh man, he just cannot punt the ball there.
Speaker 1: And I knew it right away. I mean, you can't
Speaker 1: give the ball to roll a couple of guys. You
Speaker 1: can't give the ball Rogers Brady and the game over
Speaker 1: at that point, you know. So you know, it's just
Speaker 1: a bad move. Like the Andy, that's so many good things,
Speaker 1: but that was a lot of bad. That was one
Speaker 1: of the bad. Yeah. It was fourth and three at
Speaker 1: the Kansas City forty with five minutes and thirteen seconds
Speaker 1: left in the game. Kans City had their full allotment
Speaker 1: of time outs. But it's Aaron Rodgers on the other
Speaker 1: side of the field, right, so you still got your
Speaker 1: three time outs. Might as well go for it and
Speaker 1: try to keep the ball out of his hands. But
Speaker 1: he elected to punt, and you're right, they never saw
Speaker 1: the ball again Green Bay. Okay, so no line there
Speaker 1: because we don't know who's playing quarterback for the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the next one, the Jets at Miami. No,
Speaker 1: what did you just call Minnesota Kansas City potentially the
Speaker 1: best game of the weekend. What would this be I
Speaker 1: don't know, but you know, you know they all pay
Speaker 1: the same win or you get paid. That's right. A
Speaker 1: lot a week here, Uh, Jets at Miami. By the way,
Speaker 1: I'll just I'll just guess the line first. I'll put
Speaker 1: the Jets in no man's land at like minus five
Speaker 1: and a half in between the three and seven Donald
Speaker 1: yesterday in that game we were referencing earlier against Jacksonville,
Speaker 1: Sam Donald one of thirty for two eighteen, two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: three picks, sacked eight times, eight times. That's twice as
Speaker 1: many times as any other team has sacked him during
Speaker 1: his two year NFL career. Two of his picks were
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter. Jets had ten penalties for eighty
Speaker 1: three yards. They manages two hundred thirteen yards. By the way,
Speaker 1: ninety three of the two thirteen came on their opening drive. Now,
Speaker 1: let me repeat what I just said. They managed two
Speaker 1: hundred thirteen yards and Donald through for to eighteen, which
Speaker 1: means that all those sacks are factored in. And here's
Speaker 1: a tweet this is from UH was that Michael Nannia?
Speaker 1: Is that what that is? Jeff Jets offensive line maybe
Speaker 1: one of the worst ever so far. The Jets have
Speaker 1: rushed for four hundred forty seven yards. Listen to this.
Speaker 1: So far this year, the Jets have rushed for four
Speaker 1: hundred forty seven yards and lost two hundred and sixteen
Speaker 1: yards through sack. They're just the second team in the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl era to run for less than four hundred
Speaker 1: fifty yards and lose two hundred plus yards through sacks
Speaker 1: over the first seven games. The other was the nine
Speaker 1: Colts who went one in fifteen. Your New York Jets, Wow,
Speaker 1: and then you you said something else to parlay right,
Speaker 1: there was something else about the Jets. Uh, more than
Speaker 1: thirty sacks and they've rushed for under five hundred yards,
Speaker 1: which is I think maybe the only team to do
Speaker 1: that through seven games as well. So there's all kinds
Speaker 1: of anomalies here historically, not an anomaly because this is
Speaker 1: the Jets, but anomaly historically. But it's the Dolphins. The
Speaker 1: Dolphins we haven't seen play. They played a night against
Speaker 1: the Steelers again in that ridiculous point spread of fourteen.
Speaker 1: But I'll just say Jets minus five and a half.
Speaker 1: The Jets are one in six the Dolphins currently right
Speaker 1: now at this moment oh and six. As you're saying
Speaker 1: going on that tirade again the Jets. Some laughing because
Speaker 1: there's going to be a five or five an alf
Speaker 1: point Roads favorite, right, how bad this league is at
Speaker 1: the bottom. I'm gonna open five. I think both numbers
Speaker 1: five and five and a half. I'm gonna open five.
Speaker 1: I just expect a good performance out of Miami tonight
Speaker 1: and boys, the Jet team and uh, you know Levy
Speaker 1: on Bell, I mean nobody in Pittsburgh. I mean we
Speaker 1: wish we had to believe you. We wish we did.
Speaker 1: You went to the Jets, I mean you got a
Speaker 1: one and done coach, I think, and you got the
Speaker 1: worst offensive line not just in the league but probably years.
Speaker 1: You know, how do you think this was gonna work
Speaker 1: out for you? Um? You know Sam Donald, I mean
Speaker 1: you know, I think he has a lot of talent,
Speaker 1: but boy did not protect the football, whether it's fumbling
Speaker 1: or throwing interceptions, and all the sacks he's had, I'm
Speaker 1: sure just rattles the hell out of them. And uh,
Speaker 1: you know, not running aim to help, which you know,
Speaker 1: can you know, certainly help a young quarterback. You know,
Speaker 1: the defense, I guess it isn't horrible, but if it's
Speaker 1: not doing enough to help the team win games. So
Speaker 1: all that being said, that's our tirade. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with five on the Jets, right rather Yeah, obviously tonight
Speaker 1: I think the Uh I think the Dolphins cover because
Speaker 1: you know, based on my guests of seven and a
Speaker 1: half and it's fourteen, I think they cover. Uh. Jeff Carls,
Speaker 1: who is a lifelong New York Jets fan, this game
Speaker 1: against the Dolphins next week, you said before the show,
Speaker 1: this is a game you expect the Jets to lose outright,
Speaker 1: especially if, especially if Miami does not play well tonight, Right,
Speaker 1: especially if Pittsburgh covers the two touchdowns, that line will
Speaker 1: get inflated even further, and that will be a great
Speaker 1: opportunity on Miami. I've seen this. I've seen this too
Speaker 1: many times. Go. It's like it's like I've given birth
Speaker 1: my my redskin. Defeatism has given birth to Jeff Carls
Speaker 1: and his Jets defeatism. I love. It makes me so proud. Alright, well,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna mark that down Dolphins, alright, winner next week
Speaker 1: for Parlay? All right, what's next? First of all, let
Speaker 1: me say this business will ruin anybody, won't it? What's
Speaker 1: that say again? Business will ruin anybody. Absolutely, lets just
Speaker 1: make a cynic out of all of us, that's sure.
Speaker 1: I laugh. I got this. He's really good. I found
Speaker 1: a real diamond, Um Trevor that works for us back
Speaker 1: and the sports. I mean, I really like him. And
Speaker 1: I just laugh and I said, how long before we
Speaker 1: ruin this guy? You know, he's like twenty five years old.
Speaker 1: He's the nicest kid you ever met, And thinking, oh man,
Speaker 1: does she mean about twenty years if we'll be ruined
Speaker 1: like the rest of the let's oh man? Okay? Next up?
Speaker 1: Pretty good game here, Indianapolis at Pittsburgh. Well again Pittsburgh,
Speaker 1: we haven't seen. They're playing the Dolphins tonight. Indianapolis gets
Speaker 1: the win yesterday, Um, not the cover, but the wind.
Speaker 1: They beat the Broncos fifteen to thirteen. They don't cover
Speaker 1: A six and a half point favorites or six depending
Speaker 1: on where you got it. UM ten penalties for the
Speaker 1: Colts yesterday a hundred three yards. But really it came
Speaker 1: down to Adam Vinetary And I was saying earlier as
Speaker 1: much as I was killing Naggie at the time for
Speaker 1: just settling for the Pinero field goal, which missed. I
Speaker 1: was also killing Frank Reich. If I'm to be honest,
Speaker 1: I like what they're gonna settle for this field goal
Speaker 1: from Vinetary. So Vinetary missed a forty five yard or
Speaker 1: wide right earlier in the game. He missed the tying
Speaker 1: extra point in the third quarter, if you recall, and
Speaker 1: then he goes ahead and just sinks of fifty one
Speaker 1: yard or with twenty two seconds left. No, no problem.
Speaker 1: Indy wins fifteen to thirteen come from behind fashion against
Speaker 1: the Broncos. He missed five of eight kicks in the
Speaker 1: first two weeks of the season, if you remember, before,
Speaker 1: seemingly sort of settling down, just one miss on a
Speaker 1: long field goal in the next four games, and then uh,
Speaker 1: Frank Wright did what Matteggie did. He called two runs
Speaker 1: from just inside the Broncos thirty five and the final
Speaker 1: seventy three seconds. At least he called a run though, right,
Speaker 1: NAGGI just yeah, that's true. I'll give him that. But
Speaker 1: that's the third straight win for Indie. There five and two.
Speaker 1: They remain a top the a f C South. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Houston breathing down their throats, are breathing down their necks.
Speaker 1: Pre set fifteen to oh two, no touchdowns, no picks,
Speaker 1: sacked four times, but Indie gets the win. I'll say
Speaker 1: Indie again. No, Pittsburgh, we haven't seen them yet, but
Speaker 1: I'll say Indie minus three and a half at Pittsburgh. WHOA,
Speaker 1: You're way high? So what what is it? Okay? So
Speaker 1: you know what this tells me? Then all the so
Speaker 1: Parlay was was hinting at this before the show. So
Speaker 1: the market, so while we've been focused on the Dolphins
Speaker 1: there against the Pittsburgh Steelers tonight, and maybe it's not
Speaker 1: really focused on the Dolphins but just focused on the matchup. Really,
Speaker 1: what this is telling me is that the market, in
Speaker 1: my opinion, is way over rating your Steelers, Chris. In
Speaker 1: both cases, well, I think they're overrated tonight because you know, listen,
Speaker 1: I'm quite not Jeff Parlay with my feelings on the Steelers,
Speaker 1: but I'm seeing them blow games that they're supposed to win.
Speaker 1: I mean that's been kind of you know the mark
Speaker 1: of the uh, the Mike Common era, you know. And
Speaker 1: I don't think that they'll blow this game tonight, but
Speaker 1: I do think they'll look bad and not cover. But
Speaker 1: you know, Pittsburgh has lost where they got four losses.
Speaker 1: You know, they got blown out game one by the
Speaker 1: by the Patriots, no excuse for that, but there are
Speaker 1: other losses were by two, three, and four points, so
Speaker 1: they didn't right in it. So they've been a little
Speaker 1: better in their record and it looks like they're kind
Speaker 1: of settling down. I mean, this is a good organization,
Speaker 1: uh you know. And I know the Minka Fitzpatrick trade
Speaker 1: that knocked by some people and complimented by others, and
Speaker 1: we didn't go either way in that. But my point
Speaker 1: about that one is that the Steelers really try to
Speaker 1: put a contender out every single year. There's no tanking,
Speaker 1: there's none of that stuff. They want to contend every
Speaker 1: single year. And I think right now they're a game
Speaker 1: and a half out of the wild card. I really
Speaker 1: didn't check the standing this morning, but going into the
Speaker 1: weekend they were game and a half out of the
Speaker 1: wild card. They think they're right in it, and uh,
Speaker 1: I kind of do too. And uh, you know, I
Speaker 1: think the Cults are a very good team, but Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: got home. That ain't gonna be easy for anybody to
Speaker 1: beat them at home, not anybody. But like I said,
Speaker 1: they blow the games they're supposed to win and play
Speaker 1: real tough against the tough teams. I really like pick
Speaker 1: them in this game. And I see I see some picks. Uh,
Speaker 1: with a little bit of juice on the favorite. You know,
Speaker 1: the Bookmaker was one of the big outfits out there.
Speaker 1: They got to pick minuster call of fifteen on Indianapolis
Speaker 1: and other than that, I see most of the ones
Speaker 1: I always gonna open this game pick them, I think, uh,
Speaker 1: you know, I think that's the right number, regardless of
Speaker 1: what happens side, because I don't want expect that to
Speaker 1: look good. But I spill think they should be picked
Speaker 1: them at home against the Colts. Give me the Colts,
Speaker 1: get them interesting. Interesting. And not only did I not
Speaker 1: have the three, I had a three and a half
Speaker 1: parl What did you what did you guess this before?
Speaker 1: I had indeed minus one and a half. Okay, here's
Speaker 1: more reasonable than mine than according to Visa via the market.
Speaker 1: Yeah boy, okay, So maybe I'm under rating Pittsburgh. Maybe
Speaker 1: I don't think. By the way, they're two games, two
Speaker 1: games away from the final playoff. Birth right now. Five
Speaker 1: and three is where you need to be for the
Speaker 1: second playoff. Birth right now anyway in the a f
Speaker 1: C and Pittsburgh is two and four, so one back
Speaker 1: in the lost column. Two games total in that. All right,
Speaker 1: let's do one more here before break and they're and
Speaker 1: they're prohibitive favorite time too. Yeah, that's right, winner lose
Speaker 1: that they are prohibitive their okay. Next up that Froyd
Speaker 1: at Oakland Detroit at Oakland Detroit beats the Giants. Uh.
Speaker 1: They do so by the final score of thirty one
Speaker 1: to twenty six, so they do not cover the six
Speaker 1: and a half point spread. UH Stafford two three forty two,
Speaker 1: three touchdowns, one pick. He was sacked four times. UH
Speaker 1: Gala days six catches, one three, two touchdowns, eight for
Speaker 1: fourteen on third downs. Lions had lost three straight. They
Speaker 1: traded away their safety and captain Quandre Digs to Seattle
Speaker 1: days before the game. They do get it done though
Speaker 1: against the Giants, so the lines are three three in one.
Speaker 1: And then there's the Oakland Raiders who we talked about
Speaker 1: earlier against the Texans. They were leading that game all
Speaker 1: the way until the Deshaun Watson superman play. Derek Carr
Speaker 1: eighteen of thirty for two eighty five, three touchdowns, no picks,
Speaker 1: Toorell Williams three catches ninety one in a touchdown, Hunter
Speaker 1: Renfro four for eight eight in a touchdown. But the
Speaker 1: Raiders eleven penalties a hundred yards. I gotta get that
Speaker 1: cleaned up. So Oakland's three and four. Now Oakland's a
Speaker 1: favorite here. They gotta be a favorite in this game
Speaker 1: against Detroit at Oakland. Um, I'll say just shy of three.
Speaker 1: I'll say Oakland by two and a half. I see
Speaker 1: two and book bigger. Who I just talked about. One
Speaker 1: of the biggest topics out there just went from two
Speaker 1: to two and a half. So obviously somebody made them
Speaker 1: up bed And I see some two and a half
Speaker 1: starting to pop up in other spots. So it looks
Speaker 1: like it's it's either a strong too a pinnacle with two,
Speaker 1: or some juice on the fair. Let me do that.
Speaker 1: But okay, anyway, two or two and a half. I
Speaker 1: think two and a half. You know, I know Detroit
Speaker 1: one yesterday I didn't cover, by the way five teams
Speaker 1: one and didn't cover on the weekend. Um one didn't
Speaker 1: covered up like a little bit phony. You know, I'm
Speaker 1: not sure what to think about them, you know, Um,
Speaker 1: and I think I said wrong earlier. I thought that
Speaker 1: Carson went to the highest quboor the weekend. Actually Matthew
Speaker 1: Stafford at the highest QB or the weekend ninety three
Speaker 1: point two. So really, but I think he is pretty
Speaker 1: much the whole team here. Uh. You know, the Raiders
Speaker 1: easily could have won that game yesterday. You know they
Speaker 1: did cover, but I thought they easily could have won that.
Speaker 1: That was one of my picks in the contest that
Speaker 1: i'm and I had the Raiders. Um, boyd Carr is
Speaker 1: the most frustrating quarterback kind a long time for me,
Speaker 1: because he really played well yesterday but played some really
Speaker 1: stupid things. And I'm gonna open the game two and
Speaker 1: a half. Um, I think that's probably a good number.
Speaker 1: I don't see if it goes to three. I think
Speaker 1: they'll be all over Detroit and this one. But two
Speaker 1: and a half, I'm probably gonna write some pretty decent
Speaker 1: open bits and remember that that might be the right
Speaker 1: side here. Um, you said five teams one but didn't cover.
Speaker 1: I got three. I got indeed Detroit in Houston, which
Speaker 1: is still a lot for any weekend. What were your
Speaker 1: other two that you add? Do you remember well the Redskins.
Speaker 1: Oh on Thursday, right, okay, Minnesota, Yeah, I said for
Speaker 1: the weekend Redskins. Uh, we're my at here. Uh, that's
Speaker 1: that's for many Detroit, Oakland, Minnesota, Detroit, Oakland, Indianapolis, Minye Connesota, Detroit, Houston, Indianapolis. Yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: let me take my notes. Maybe it's four. Still four
Speaker 1: is a lot in any given weekend. Seattle, Okay, I closed,
Speaker 1: I I see it closed at Uh yeah, no, you're
Speaker 1: right because it's uh yeah, seven and a half is consensus.
Speaker 1: You're right. Okay. So Seattle was the other one, which
Speaker 1: we'll get to. Okay, let's take a break, let's do more.
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Speaker 1: bet mgm ap back with more guesting lines. Week nine
Speaker 1: in the NFL with Chris Andrews next on Visa. Welcome
Speaker 1: back to a numbers game with Jill Alexander having a
Speaker 1: dinner with Jeff Parlay's grandparents tonight. Uh. And this this
Speaker 1: is on the tribe side of the family for Jeff
Speaker 1: and Jeff. Jeff, did you describe your grandparents are in
Speaker 1: full what mode? No? My my my grandfather has been.
Speaker 1: I've been great the whole time. They came. Both both
Speaker 1: of my grandparents came down to the South Point to
Speaker 1: watch college football and my grandmother to play black jack.
Speaker 1: And my grandfather enjoyed Todd's company, enjoyed my company. But
Speaker 1: my grandmother early on in the early on, in the
Speaker 1: early on in the trip. Uh, it was, it was
Speaker 1: in a full yento mode early in the trip. But uh,
Speaker 1: but uh, it has got it has gotten better, it
Speaker 1: has gone along. But it's been a very enjoyable few days.
Speaker 1: And uh, I'm very intrigued to see how this didn't
Speaker 1: you just tell the Gallagher story real quickly. But oh no,
Speaker 1: I will will hold off on that for now. Hold off.
Speaker 1: It's a good one to get cold feed here on
Speaker 1: this show. All right, let's bring Chris Andrews back in
Speaker 1: on the show Week nine, guessing lines. Have we gotten
Speaker 1: an afternoon games at Chris? Uh? Oakland was the first
Speaker 1: afternoon year. Okay, So how many total afternoon games do
Speaker 1: we have? Uh? Four? Four? Okay, So let's do the
Speaker 1: Let's do the final three of those afternoon games right here.
Speaker 1: What's next? Okay? Tampa at Seattle. Tampa at Seattle, two
Speaker 1: teams that came in the league I think of the
Speaker 1: same year together did in the seventies six. I believe
Speaker 1: Tampa at Seattle um. All right, So Tampa Bay, as
Speaker 1: we talked about, coming off that very unfortunate loss to
Speaker 1: the Titans by the score of what was the final
Speaker 1: there again, twenty three, Tampa Bay was two point dogs.
Speaker 1: They covered on teasers but did not cover pre flop
Speaker 1: a t s Jamis Winstone for three oh one, two touchdowns,
Speaker 1: two picks, three sacks. He did gain fifty three yards
Speaker 1: on the ground eight carries. Mike Evans, by the way,
Speaker 1: let me just say this about Mike might be the
Speaker 1: most dominant receiver in football. Eleven catches for one two touchdowns.
Speaker 1: They should pass to him every single damn play like
Speaker 1: it's just it's unstoppable. They outgained as I mentioned earlier,
Speaker 1: the Titans forty six. They lost their third strade fourth
Speaker 1: in five games. Despite Winston and Evans putting the Bucks
Speaker 1: up twenty three to seventeen with a touchdown pass at
Speaker 1: the end of the first half a second in the
Speaker 1: third quarter, they wouldn't score again though after that one
Speaker 1: in the third quarter, despite out gaining again forty six
Speaker 1: out getting the Titans by that margin but four turnovers
Speaker 1: and minus three in turnover differential. Bruce Arians quote, Jamis
Speaker 1: didn't throw one damn interception. That was his fault. His
Speaker 1: receivers let him down today. Guys stopped on roots they
Speaker 1: were supposed to be going down the middle, unquote, So
Speaker 1: Bruce Arians taking the blame off James, putting it on
Speaker 1: the receiver's nine penalties eighty seven yards for the Bucks um.
Speaker 1: And then there was that inadvertent whistle that cost him
Speaker 1: a fumble return after stopping Tennessee's fake field on the
Speaker 1: final minutes with three forty one left, after linebacker Devin
Speaker 1: White stopped Brett Kern short on a fake um, knocking
Speaker 1: the ball out, Andrew Adams grabs it, runs towards the
Speaker 1: end zone, only be whistled dead. Winston now ten combined
Speaker 1: turn overs over his past eight quarters. By the way,
Speaker 1: that was a punt not a fake field goal, right.
Speaker 1: Jeff uh Ten combined turnovers over his past eight quarters
Speaker 1: for Jamis Winston. Bucks also held the three field goals
Speaker 1: in the first half, twice went inside the Tennessee five.
Speaker 1: You know how'd goes? Bucks fans are two and five
Speaker 1: at Seattle. Now who gets it done? Uh? Seattle beats
Speaker 1: Atlanta twenty seven to twenty. But as you point out, Chrissie,
Speaker 1: they do not cover the consensus clothes here, which ended
Speaker 1: up seven and a half or eight, depending on where
Speaker 1: you got it. But Seattle's four and o en road
Speaker 1: games this year. That's the first time they've done that
Speaker 1: since nineteen eighty. They led twenty four to nothing at halftime,
Speaker 1: and you figured it, Okay, well this is over and
Speaker 1: this is one of these games. Now, look, the Falcons
Speaker 1: have lost sixth straight there one in seven. The Seahawks
Speaker 1: won the turnover battle three to nothing. DK Metcalf three
Speaker 1: catches thirteen yards, but two of them were for scores
Speaker 1: lock at six for a hundred they allowed. Here's the thing.
Speaker 1: If Matt Matt Bryant missed two field goals that were
Speaker 1: greater than fifty yards, so there's no shame in in that,
Speaker 1: I guess, but if he makes those field goals. And
Speaker 1: then there was this, you know, we talked about Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay getting screwed on that on that whistle, the inadvertent whistle,
Speaker 1: not even inadvertent or not inadvertent, it was a whistle,
Speaker 1: and so they didn't get the touchdown on the return
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. But there was a play in this game
Speaker 1: where DeVonta Freeman was was called for a fun He
Speaker 1: was inside the uh the Seattle five yard line. They
Speaker 1: rule it a fumble. Replay shows bye bye. I mean,
Speaker 1: maybe I'm just crazy, but it looked like he was
Speaker 1: so clearly down and they didn't reverse it, and so
Speaker 1: Seattle got the ball in this game against Atlanta. And
Speaker 1: I'm just thinking to myself, for for all that we
Speaker 1: want to say about Seattle winning this game, and we
Speaker 1: want to sort of, you know, downgrade Atlanta. Atlanta could
Speaker 1: have very easily not only been in this game, but
Speaker 1: there's Sitteria where they win this game based on some
Speaker 1: of the things that went against them. Matt Shop thirty
Speaker 1: nine of fifty two for four sixty one touchdown and
Speaker 1: picking his first start since season when he was with Baltimore.
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan held out with the spring right ankle. Maybe
Speaker 1: it says something about Matt Ryan that Matt Shaw could
Speaker 1: just come in and throw over four sixty Julio Jones
Speaker 1: had one fifty two of those with ten catches. But
Speaker 1: it's a Tampa bat Seattle here. Um talking about Atlanta
Speaker 1: against Seattle. So is the fact that Seattle gave up
Speaker 1: five twelve yards. Even all that said, Seattle is gonna
Speaker 1: be a favorite here, and it's gonna be you know,
Speaker 1: I'll put it no man's land between the three and
Speaker 1: the seven. I'll say Seattle minus five and a half.
Speaker 1: You're a little shy. I'd see six and a half primarily,
Speaker 1: which is what I'm gonna open, although I do see
Speaker 1: a bookmaker again, very respected outfit. Haw did six and
Speaker 1: a half and went to six. Uh so somebody made
Speaker 1: him a bet and I think some pretty big actions.
Speaker 1: So somebody pretty sharp must have made that play, because
Speaker 1: they don't they don't move on air, and they take
Speaker 1: some pretty big play. So I think I think you
Speaker 1: might see some wives gap play on Tampa as the
Speaker 1: public will be behind Seattle. I'm not sure that's the
Speaker 1: right side, by the way, but Seattle was not quite
Speaker 1: the home team that we've been used to over the
Speaker 1: last maybe decade. Uh, they're, They're. Part of it is
Speaker 1: that they're a very good road team. And you know,
Speaker 1: we talk about home field advantage. It's always you have
Speaker 1: to look at the differential. How good are they on
Speaker 1: the road, how good are they at home? And there's
Speaker 1: not that much of a differential anymore with Seattle. Uh,
Speaker 1: They're they're, They're obviously a good road team. I think
Speaker 1: what you say, are four o on the road straight up? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I didn't have recovery yesterday, but became close. But yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm with you. They easily could have lost that game.
Speaker 1: Um give up four forty yards to match Shop. That's
Speaker 1: you know, that's Uh, you gotta you gotta look at
Speaker 1: some things there. And I said at the beginning, you
Speaker 1: know what, Bruce arians I signed by Campa Bay as
Speaker 1: their coach. I thought it would really helped Jameis Winston
Speaker 1: a lot, and I think he has. I think Winston
Speaker 1: is playing some pretty decent football. And I didn't see
Speaker 1: the game that closely to tell you whether those interceptions
Speaker 1: were his followed or not. But he's doing pretty good.
Speaker 1: But you know, the more I'm thinking about this, the
Speaker 1: more I talked about it. I think he opened the
Speaker 1: game six. You know, what the heck I think that.
Speaker 1: I think that's the right time. I think Tampa is
Speaker 1: going to get some wide guy money here, and like
Speaker 1: I said, I think that's that's probably appropriate. I think
Speaker 1: that's the right touch. I'm gonna open six. They'll probably
Speaker 1: bet me up to six and a half. If that's okay,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take a bet. Yeah. And then that's part
Speaker 1: of the reason why I have at five and a half,
Speaker 1: and I would be I would leave Tampa Bay here too.
Speaker 1: Again for all the reasons I stay to Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: one again. Forget the fact that they got screwed on
Speaker 1: the whistle, but they were dominating that game against Tennessee.
Speaker 1: It's just the four turnovers, right, It's it's you know,
Speaker 1: and Bruce Arian says it was the receivers. Maybe it was,
Speaker 1: but your minus three in turnovers. Tampa Bay is one
Speaker 1: of these teams where one of these weeks they're not
Speaker 1: going to do that, right, Like, they can't do that
Speaker 1: every every single game in Seattle. Again for their what
Speaker 1: ends up looking like a pretty cruise job of a win.
Speaker 1: Yesterday it was twenty four to eleven. The play that
Speaker 1: I was referring to was to eleven Seattle with just
Speaker 1: under thirteen minutes left in the fourth quarter, and Atlanta's
Speaker 1: got the ball first and goal at the Seattle eight.
Speaker 1: They're down thirteen at this point. This is after the
Speaker 1: Matt Bryant missfield goals and Shaw passes to Freeman for
Speaker 1: a seven yard game. It's all the way to the
Speaker 1: one yard line, I said, within, I said inside the five,
Speaker 1: it was all the way to the one. He gets
Speaker 1: tackled by Marquise Blair, Freeman fumbles, Bobby Wagner recovers returns
Speaker 1: of five yards. He looked so down to me, and
Speaker 1: I'm I'm shocked it wasn't reversed. Um. And so I
Speaker 1: think they got screwed a little there too, not a
Speaker 1: little a lot. And you don't I mean that game
Speaker 1: is eighteen. Let's say you don't know how that how
Speaker 1: that concludes? Um. So yeah, for me, that's Tampa Bay
Speaker 1: or nothing in that game. If you're saying Seattle six
Speaker 1: or six and a half, you said you open at six.
Speaker 1: You said six. And I'm a lot of big advocate
Speaker 1: of buying half pank, you know, but if you can
Speaker 1: buy that one up to seven. It might be a
Speaker 1: pretty decent play. I mean, listen, it's hard enough to
Speaker 1: win an eleven and ten in this league, you know.
Speaker 1: But yeah, let alone six to five. But if you
Speaker 1: can find somebody saw you half a point at a
Speaker 1: dollar twenty, that might be a decent buy to get
Speaker 1: it up to seven. Okay, let's do one more. Cleveland
Speaker 1: at Denver, Cleveland at Denver, Cleveland at Denver. Alright, much
Speaker 1: to be said here. So Cleveland loses to the Patriots,
Speaker 1: which somehow we haven't gotten to yet. Uh. Patriots win
Speaker 1: that game twenty seven and thirteen. They cover uh ten
Speaker 1: points spread. Cleveland falls to two and five. They've lost
Speaker 1: three straight games. Uh. Three first quarter turnovers by Cleveland
Speaker 1: on three consecutive offensive plays that allowed New England to
Speaker 1: capitalize on take a seventeen and nothing lead Nick Chubb
Speaker 1: back to back fumbles Baker Mayfield with an interception, and
Speaker 1: let me define that interception first of all, um, by
Speaker 1: the way, three consecutive plays on offense. First time any
Speaker 1: team has done that. Turnovers on three consecutive plays since
Speaker 1: the Dolphins did it Week one of the twelve season
Speaker 1: against the Texans and It's only the seventh time that's
Speaker 1: happened since two thousand, so that's how you know much
Speaker 1: of an anomaly that was. Patriots took a three to
Speaker 1: nothing lead. Chubb takes a handoff from Mayfield, had the
Speaker 1: ball kicked out of his hands by left guard Joel
Speaker 1: Betonio indvertently uh Dante high Tower returns to twenty six
Speaker 1: yards where a touchdown, so fumble scoop touchdown on that one.
Speaker 1: Then the first play of the ensuing series, Patriots kickoff
Speaker 1: flanded out of bounds Chubb. Chubb gets the ball again
Speaker 1: and he takes off forty four yard gained down the sideline.
Speaker 1: He appears like he's going into the house for a touchdown.
Speaker 1: And then Jonathan Jones, new England quarterback, he he takes
Speaker 1: the ball, punches it out from Chubb's hands on the
Speaker 1: Patriots four, recovered by mccordy. Then, following a Patriots punt,
Speaker 1: Uh Lawrence Guy breaks into the backfield. There's the only
Speaker 1: way to describe this is it just looks like Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield simply shoveled the pass right to him. Um it
Speaker 1: was attempted for attempting to get Jarvis Landry on the
Speaker 1: Cleveland sixteen UM and so two plays later, by the way,
Speaker 1: Brady Edelman and they were off the Patriots words of
Speaker 1: the races. But Nick Chubb twenty one thirty one and looked,
Speaker 1: this should be at you know, I think Lombardi said
Speaker 1: it on Follow the Money this morning. They should have
Speaker 1: just a this should be based on the run instead. Um.
Speaker 1: You know, they're trying to They're trying to do all
Speaker 1: kinds of things and you're not really sure if they
Speaker 1: have an identity. They were three of twelve on third
Speaker 1: downs that were minus three in turnovers? Were the Browns
Speaker 1: thirteen penalties for eighty five yards thirteen? Uh. They did
Speaker 1: have Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back in the in
Speaker 1: the secondary. That didn't help much. But here here again.
Speaker 1: Now we talked about coaching mal practice, and we've talked
Speaker 1: about it in several other games. But the Browns are
Speaker 1: down twenty seven to ten with six seventeen left in
Speaker 1: this game. It's fourth and eleven from their own twenty
Speaker 1: four yard line. The Browns, I guess the play clock
Speaker 1: the game clock had stopped, but the play clock is
Speaker 1: running down, and I guess it was too much of
Speaker 1: a frenzy for Freddie Kitchens. The Browns decided to take
Speaker 1: a false start penalty with the play clock winding down,
Speaker 1: so that Baker Mayfield essentially could get sacked on fourth
Speaker 1: and sixteen from the Cleveland nineteen. Oh my god, here's
Speaker 1: Darryl ryder By the way at right or wrong? Fan?
Speaker 1: So fall starting fourth and eleven with punt unit, Freddie
Speaker 1: pulls them, puts offense out for fourth and sixteen. Baker sacked.
Speaker 1: Nathan Zigurro just reported Brown's deliberately false started so the
Speaker 1: offense could return to the field because Kitchens didn't want
Speaker 1: to burn his final time out. Clown show its sweet,
Speaker 1: oh man. And then there's Denver, who we said lost
Speaker 1: Indian Yeah, yeah, oh my god. Denver was two of
Speaker 1: twelve on third downs and they're lost to the Colts.
Speaker 1: They had ten penalties for eighty eight yards. They lost
Speaker 1: their second straight third this season in the final thirty seconds.
Speaker 1: They've lost three games this year in the final thirty seconds. Uh.
Speaker 1: They took over at the Colts four the eight midway
Speaker 1: through the fourth quarter, they called two short passes one
Speaker 1: run before punting, and when the Broncos took over at
Speaker 1: their own thirty eight. With three thirty seven left, they
Speaker 1: called four runs in one short pass before another point.
Speaker 1: Joe Flacco has awakened from his coma quote. I just
Speaker 1: looked at it like we're now a two and six
Speaker 1: football team, and we're like afraid to go for it
Speaker 1: a two minute drill? Who cares if you give it
Speaker 1: back to the guys with one forty left. They obviously
Speaker 1: got the field goal. Anyway, Once again, we're a two
Speaker 1: and six football team, and it just feels like we're
Speaker 1: kind of afraid to lose a game. Unquote Joe Flacco,
Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen. Denver settled for two short first half
Speaker 1: field goals, by the way, one capping a seven team
Speaker 1: blade drive of over eight minutes, the other to finish
Speaker 1: a third team blade drive that took over five and
Speaker 1: a half minutes. What was this game again? Cleveland at Denver?
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I don't know. Cleveland minus one and
Speaker 1: a half, I don't know, something like that and Denver
Speaker 1: minus one and a half. Okay, I yeah, I don't know. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean, God almighty, you know these both coaches one
Speaker 1: and done. I mean, Vick Vangio has been in the
Speaker 1: leaf forever. I thought he was a pretty good hire
Speaker 1: by Denver, but he has been a disaster at Kitchens.
Speaker 1: I never expected much. I don't know what they were thinking.
Speaker 1: I guess he had some play calling success with Mayfield
Speaker 1: last year and they wanted to go in that direction.
Speaker 1: He's terrible. The Denver coaching staff is terrible. I mean
Speaker 1: John always finally getting a little heat. I mean, let's
Speaker 1: face it, he stumbled into Peyton Manning. Uh you know,
Speaker 1: Oh my god, two bad franchises with unbelievably rabid fan bases.
Speaker 1: You know, I feel gonna feel a little sorry for
Speaker 1: both of them, really, but I guess I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with one and a half. I hope I don't need
Speaker 1: this game for much. But we're talking about teasers earlier. Hey,
Speaker 1: Cleveland plus and take a six point either, Cleveland plus
Speaker 1: seven and a half. I don't see how you're gonna
Speaker 1: lose that one. You might, it's Cleveland that's don't tempt
Speaker 1: to look like a pretty decent don't encourage him. Yeah, no, No,
Speaker 1: I think you're right. That's an obvious, obvious teaser. Leg
Speaker 1: You know you said something right there, Chris. I don't
Speaker 1: want to see upon you said. Are both of these
Speaker 1: guys one and done. So Jake Gruden, who obviously was
Speaker 1: the Redskins coach for many years, far too many years,
Speaker 1: if I may just say, he was fired already. Dan
Speaker 1: Quinn is the favorite in the clubhouse, uh to get fired.
Speaker 1: And obviously dan Quinn wants a super Bowl coach with
Speaker 1: the Falcons, but he's clearly the favorite in the clubhouse,
Speaker 1: I think to get fired. But one and done, guys,
Speaker 1: Parlay and I were talking about this before the show
Speaker 1: is there. Do you ever remember a year where there's
Speaker 1: more possibility of a one and done coaches than this year?
Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no, I mean the Jet coach Gaze.
Speaker 1: I mean, I think he's one and done. I think
Speaker 1: that's what That's what said Jeff Off on it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: case who you called? What did you call him? Jeff
Speaker 1: the Worce call him two point oh coach at two
Speaker 1: point crazy? Oh my god? Is there a bigger insult
Speaker 1: you can coach? I don't know. And we probably have
Speaker 1: some youngsters out there that don't understand exactly how insulting
Speaker 1: that is. Yeah, I mean, but then there's guys that
Speaker 1: have been around for just a couple of years, like
Speaker 1: like I think about Shermer, who's like seven and seventeen
Speaker 1: with the Giants, all these guys anyway, all right, so
Speaker 1: you're opening, so it's one and a half, and that's
Speaker 1: what you're opening out in favorite Denver. One and a half. Yeah,
Speaker 1: one and ad Like I said, you know, I hope
Speaker 1: it's a blow out one way or the other, because
Speaker 1: this looks like a teaser game to me. You know,
Speaker 1: we might go to I don't know what world's gonna happen.
Speaker 1: I'm opening one and a half. I hope we stay there.
Speaker 1: But if it stays one and a half, Cleveland on
Speaker 1: the six point teacher looks pretty strong to me. The
Speaker 1: coaching gaff spectacle that game could be it's worth the
Speaker 1: price of admission alone. All Right, we'll come back, we'll
Speaker 1: do the primetime games, and we'll recap what we like
Speaker 1: best here guessing lines on a numbers game right here
Speaker 1: at Vison. Welcome to a numbers game with Kill Alexander.
Speaker 1: Chrissie Parlay tells me that I forgot one afternoon game?
Speaker 1: Did I forget one afternoon game? We haven't gotten the
Speaker 1: prime time games yet? Was I one? Shy? One one more? Actually?
Speaker 1: Pretty good game? Green Bay after Chargers, Okay, green Bay
Speaker 1: six and one, now Chargers three and five. As we
Speaker 1: mentioned Green Bay with their win over Casey last night,
Speaker 1: Chargers getting by the Madden Naggy Mitch Drobiskie Eddie Pinero
Speaker 1: show that is the Bears. Rogers twenty three thirty three
Speaker 1: last night for three oh five, three touchdowns, no picks,
Speaker 1: five times sacked in that game, but Aaron Jones man
Speaker 1: thirteen carries for sixty seven yards, seven catches for one
Speaker 1: fifty nine and two touchdowns. Packers were eight of thirteen
Speaker 1: on third downs. They were down seventeen and fourteen fifteen
Speaker 1: played drive. UH used most of the third quarter get
Speaker 1: a tying field goal, then they got the ball back
Speaker 1: when Lashawn McCoy fumbled on the next play. How many
Speaker 1: times have I asked Lombardi about how do does la
Speaker 1: Shawn McCoy carry the ball like that? Get away with it?
Speaker 1: Of course he and then UH five plays later, talked
Speaker 1: about Deshaun Watson's amazing play to win that game against
Speaker 1: the Raiders yesterday. How about that Rogers touchdown pass on
Speaker 1: third and three yesterday? Um looked a little luckier than
Speaker 1: it was good, because I don't think that was his
Speaker 1: intended receiver, but still right the fact that he got
Speaker 1: it there. Uh, Packers Uh. Eventually the Chiefs tied the game.
Speaker 1: Packers then took fifty six seconds to get the would
Speaker 1: end up being the game winning touchdown. Chargers snapping a
Speaker 1: three game losing streaking their win against the Bears. Joey
Speaker 1: Bosa with two sacks. Um defining sequence probably Casey Hayward Jr.
Speaker 1: Returning a pick thirty seven yards to the twenty early
Speaker 1: and the fourth Keenan Allen drops the twenty four yard
Speaker 1: pass in the end zone. On third down. Chase mcgauklin
Speaker 1: misses the field goal, but your biscuit gives it right back,
Speaker 1: losing a fumble. That Ingram back after missing three games
Speaker 1: with a hamstring injury recovers for l a. Chargers took
Speaker 1: over in the Bears for six and then the touchdown
Speaker 1: catch to Ekeler seventeen sixteen lead, and that held, of course,
Speaker 1: because as we mentioned, Naggy decides to just not matriculate
Speaker 1: the ball and settle for an Eddie Panier field which
Speaker 1: he misses. I'll say Green Bay minus three on the road,
Speaker 1: it's mostly three. I see a little bit of juice
Speaker 1: on the favorite. I'm gonna open three and a half,
Speaker 1: So folks run down to the south point or get
Speaker 1: on your app whatever, because I know they can't resist
Speaker 1: the three and a half when there's threes out there.
Speaker 1: But I think this game will close three and a half.
Speaker 1: I was looking at this game before we went on
Speaker 1: here and a big point. The only thing that saved
Speaker 1: the Chargers yesterday was the Bears managed to outcharger the Chargers.
Speaker 1: So I don't think Green Bay's gonna do that. So
Speaker 1: I kind of like green Bay in the spot, especially
Speaker 1: in three. Yeah, well they want to rush and take
Speaker 1: three and a half on the Chargers, man, I wouldn't
Speaker 1: rush too hard on that the Chargers, after all, they will,
Speaker 1: they will. I'm sure you're right. Sunday night, what do
Speaker 1: you got? Good games? New England had ball? Okay, so
Speaker 1: here's where now New England obviously eight. No, there's nothing
Speaker 1: we can say bad about New England. Tom Brady twenty
Speaker 1: of thirty six for two nine two touchdowns, no picks.
Speaker 1: Edelman with eight of those catches for seventy eight for
Speaker 1: two touchdowns career, regular season and post season for Bill Belichick,
Speaker 1: only Don Shula, George Hallis had more eight no for
Speaker 1: the third time Patriots and team history, first time since
Speaker 1: when they started ten and oh. They forced a league
Speaker 1: high twenty five turnovers this season, and they've won twenty
Speaker 1: one straight games against first or second year signal callers,
Speaker 1: longest such streak in the NFL. That, of course, is
Speaker 1: what they did yesterday, uh in their thirteen win over
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield, second year quarterback of the Cleveland Browns Baltimore
Speaker 1: coming off of bye week, this is a stretch now
Speaker 1: for the New England Patriots. Obviously, we can say nothing
Speaker 1: wrong with him, all those stats are amazing. But here's
Speaker 1: the stretch for New England now, starting with this game
Speaker 1: at Baltimore on Sunday night. They get at Baltimore, followed
Speaker 1: by at Philadelphia home against the Cowboys, at the Texans
Speaker 1: home against the Chiefs at It's a pretty nice five
Speaker 1: game stretch to figure out how good this football team is.
Speaker 1: I'll say New England minus four here on the road,
Speaker 1: it's three and a half and four. I like the
Speaker 1: three and a half better here. I think there's gonna
Speaker 1: be a really, really tough game. I think the fact
Speaker 1: that Baltimore had the week off, I think really helps
Speaker 1: them a lot. You're gonna help him enough to win?
Speaker 1: I don't know, but I think three and app's planning.
Speaker 1: I think four would it take for me? It just
Speaker 1: looks a little bit too high, although there's some places
Speaker 1: I highly respect that I have four out there, and
Speaker 1: but a lot of three and a half mostly three
Speaker 1: and a half a little bit before, but like has
Speaker 1: a couple of LiOD spots. But I'm an open three
Speaker 1: and a half. I think that's I think that's planning myself,
Speaker 1: I really do. Yeah. And how about this story, Adam Schefter,
Speaker 1: it's like brewing that this could be Tom Brady's last
Speaker 1: year with the Patriots, kind of under the radar and
Speaker 1: now who knows. Well, we'll worry about that in another time.
Speaker 1: But it's interesting story. Yeah, try to tell you something.
Speaker 1: I don't think Brady looks at that great. I don't
Speaker 1: think so really, you know, Yeah, we're a little spoiled.
Speaker 1: You know. It's like for the Beatles made a song
Speaker 1: you didn't like, Oh these things you know, No, no,
Speaker 1: there's still the Beatles. On the other hand. On the
Speaker 1: other hand, he's lost so many players around him, right, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I mean it. I don't think he's quite what he was.
Speaker 1: But listen, that defense is so good. Yeah, still might
Speaker 1: be enough to win a Super Bowl. Really might Monday night. Yea, yeah,
Speaker 1: it could be a good game Dallas at the Giant
Speaker 1: NFC East. Usually back in the day, this would be
Speaker 1: just a three point spread and you wouldn't even think
Speaker 1: about it. Yeah, different now. Daniel Jones yesterday and the
Speaker 1: Giants lost to the Lions. Good game for Daniel Jones.
Speaker 1: Forty one for three, twenty two four touchdowns, no picks,
Speaker 1: sack three times. Sa Kwan sixty four yards on the
Speaker 1: ground on nineteen carries seventy nine yards or seventy nine
Speaker 1: yards receiving rather eight catches. Slaton with two scores for
Speaker 1: the Giants. There were seven of twelve on third downs,
Speaker 1: but Pat schermer as I mentioned seven and seventeen straight
Speaker 1: up now with the New York Giants. The Giants are
Speaker 1: having a player's only meeting today, everybody players only meeting
Speaker 1: for the Giants. They've lost four in a row, and
Speaker 1: the Cowboys coming off by Dallas minus six. I'll say
Speaker 1: on the road at New York, well, I kind of
Speaker 1: like your number better, but it's it's seven with juice
Speaker 1: on the favorite. See a little bit of seven and
Speaker 1: a half with Juice on the dog. But you know
Speaker 1: there's only one seven class. You know most of the
Speaker 1: seven with Juice on the favorite. I'm gonna open seven,
Speaker 1: but I think they're gonna lay it to me. You know,
Speaker 1: like I said, we for those first time listeners, and
Speaker 1: you do everything at eleven and ten on the board
Speaker 1: here for straight bets in the NFL. Um excuse, So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open seven. I'm sure they're gonna bet me
Speaker 1: the favorite, but you know I'm gonna need the giants
Speaker 1: come Monday night and plus seven. I'm okay with that
Speaker 1: and gets okay, we'll come back, we'll wrap it up,
Speaker 1: we'll say what we like best in There are several
Speaker 1: games to gravitate towards here Week nine guessing lines. Chris
Speaker 1: Andrew's right here in a Numbers game in visa. Welcome
Speaker 1: back to a Numbers game with Gil Alexander. Okay, two
Speaker 1: minutes or less here Gil Alexander, Jeff Parlay, Chrissie Andrews.
Speaker 1: I have I like a bunch, which worries me, like
Speaker 1: San Francisco. If you're only if you're telling me that's
Speaker 1: only eight I love them Thursday night at Arizona. I
Speaker 1: like Miami again for the third straight week. Uh, Jeff
Speaker 1: likes him out right, but I'll take the points against
Speaker 1: the Jets. I like Indianapolis. I had that three and
Speaker 1: a half. I was way off on that line at Pittsburgh,
Speaker 1: So I like Indie there. I like Carolina. I don't
Speaker 1: think that's high enough. If you're telling me it's only
Speaker 1: three and a half. I'll take Carolina hosting the Tennessee Titans.
Speaker 1: And the other one I like is Tampa Bay. Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay catching uh nearly a touchdown at Seattle, and I
Speaker 1: like Cleveland as a teaser leg. But those are the
Speaker 1: five before that that I really like. Jeff real quick
Speaker 1: Miami there, and uh, I actually like the Browns to
Speaker 1: win that game against Denver. They're more talented than the
Speaker 1: Broncos are. What a show that should be between Fangio
Speaker 1: and Kitchens. Chrissie, what leaps off the page for you?
Speaker 1: Way too many games? I have the Niners, I like
Speaker 1: the build. I like the Dolphins, Tampa Bay, Green Bay
Speaker 1: and the Giant Green Bay and the Giants. You like Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's a lot, and you know what they say there's
Speaker 1: too many that worries me a great deal. Uh oh yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: well again, we reserve the right to change all of
Speaker 1: this between now and the time we make our contest. Yeah. Um, Chris, look,
Speaker 1: I know you weren't in studio, but um doctor's orders.
Speaker 1: We gotta follow those. They love you anyway, So please
Speaker 1: stay where you need to and whenever you're ready to
Speaker 1: come in for two hours, whenever that's cleared, then we'll
Speaker 1: do that when the time is right. I'd love well
Speaker 1: I see him next Tuesday, So not tomorrow, but next week.
Speaker 1: I'm hoping he's gives me a pass at that point. Okay,
Speaker 1: all right, Chrissy, thank you. We'll see you here around
Speaker 1: the South Park today, I'm sure. Chris Andrew No not today, No, no,
Speaker 1: not today. I'm gonna work at home. Maybe tomorrow Chris Andrews.
Speaker 1: By the way, you can follow him at at Andrew's
Speaker 1: Sports on Twitter. The name of the book. Then one
Speaker 1: day available where all books are sold, including Amazon. Then
Speaker 1: one day all of Chris's great stories from story Time