WEBVTT - US Treasuries Fall on Tariff Signs 0:00:02.720 --> 0:00:10.560 Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 0:00:10.560 --> 0:00:14.480 Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am 0:00:14.560 --> 0:00:18.479 Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 0:00:18.600 --> 0:00:21.840 Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch 0:00:21.920 --> 0:00:23.040 us live on YouTube. 0:00:23.920 --> 0:00:25.920 All right, let's get to the broader market here. You're 0:00:25.960 --> 0:00:28.360 taking a look at treasuries, still having all the sell 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:30.800 off here, yield's really pushing higher. The question is why 0:00:30.960 --> 0:00:32.960 is it just purely just a risk on trade and 0:00:32.960 --> 0:00:35.280 then risk off and treasuries. Let's get more with Ira Jersey, 0:00:35.360 --> 0:00:38.920 Bloomberg Intelligence Chief US Interest Rate strategistic joining us IRA. 0:00:38.960 --> 0:00:40.519 When you look at a move like this, is this 0:00:40.560 --> 0:00:42.760 a purely Hey, tariffs might not be as bad. We're 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:44.200 buy inequities, we're selling bonds. 0:00:45.080 --> 0:00:46.800 Yeah, I think it's as simple as that, Alex. At 0:00:46.840 --> 0:00:50.919 least this morning the headline certainly of the SMP Global 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:54.360 pmis also didn't hurt any either. You saw a little 0:00:54.400 --> 0:00:57.160 bit of a move after that with yields moving up 0:00:57.160 --> 0:00:59.760 a basis one or two, But generally it's the risk 0:00:59.800 --> 0:01:02.320 on sentiment right now. And you know, we've been talking 0:01:02.320 --> 0:01:07.119 about the entire year We're going to have this play between, Look, 0:01:07.160 --> 0:01:10.319 are we going into a recession anytime soon or is 0:01:10.360 --> 0:01:13.080 the economy going to hang on just enough that the 0:01:13.120 --> 0:01:16.080 Fed Reserve is going to be reluctant to cut interest 0:01:16.160 --> 0:01:18.959 rates because you know, the services sector is doing okay. 0:01:19.160 --> 0:01:23.440 Plus tariffs might increase inflation expectations. So the market just 0:01:23.520 --> 0:01:26.720 hovering around this, you know, low four percent range for 0:01:27.040 --> 0:01:29.840 the tenure yield is probably something that we're going to 0:01:29.880 --> 0:01:31.720 continue to see for quite a long time. 0:01:32.400 --> 0:01:34.880 We're going to get some inflation data at the end 0:01:35.000 --> 0:01:37.960 of this week, Ira, what do you think the how 0:01:37.959 --> 0:01:40.399 do you think the Fed's looking at this core PCEE 0:01:40.480 --> 0:01:41.559 data that we'll get on Friday. 0:01:42.520 --> 0:01:45.080 Well, they like the core PC data. But usually and 0:01:45.200 --> 0:01:48.200 in the recent past, the forecast has been done a 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:51.200 pretty good job in determining where it's going to be, 0:01:51.280 --> 0:01:54.080 at least within a tenth of a percent. So I 0:01:54.080 --> 0:01:57.400 suspect that that the market. Yeah, if there's a big surprise, 0:01:57.480 --> 0:01:59.840 obviously the market will move. But I think we'll move 0:02:00.160 --> 0:02:03.040 on that and think about next week's non form payroll 0:02:03.120 --> 0:02:06.240 report and some of the other PMI reports that we 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:09.600 get from the US from the Institute of Supply management 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:13.079 next week. Those tend to be the bigger movers, right, 0:02:13.240 --> 0:02:17.000 and the jobs market still is the key, with certainly 0:02:17.080 --> 0:02:20.840 CPI inflation being number two. Interestingly, when you look at 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.320 what the ten year yield has been most sensitive to 0:02:23.800 --> 0:02:28.079 in terms of changes when data points miss, it's always 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:31.600 payrolls number one. CPI has been number two, but this 0:02:31.680 --> 0:02:34.040 pc inflator is all the way down at number seven 0:02:34.160 --> 0:02:36.760 right now in our list of the top ten, so 0:02:37.400 --> 0:02:39.720 that's fallen off quite a bit. Retail sales, on the 0:02:39.720 --> 0:02:42.800 other hand, that's now number three. That had been number 0:02:42.800 --> 0:02:45.680 two for a long time. But those three are really 0:02:45.720 --> 0:02:47.600 the data points that you want to focus in on. 0:02:47.919 --> 0:02:50.840 That's certainly when you see any shifts there, that's when 0:02:50.840 --> 0:02:52.680 you're going to see big moves in the treasury market. 0:02:53.080 --> 0:02:56.000 And we get some auctions this week as well, really 0:02:56.000 --> 0:02:58.040 in the belly of the curve. You had mentioned earlier 0:02:58.120 --> 0:03:00.880 last week that the ten year had kind of found 0:03:00.919 --> 0:03:03.040 its high, but we're looking for a bottom. But what 0:03:03.080 --> 0:03:04.320 does that mean then for the belly. 0:03:05.280 --> 0:03:08.359 Yeah, so we get twos, fives, and seven So those 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:11.400 fives and sevens is distinctively the belly. I actually think 0:03:11.440 --> 0:03:16.440 tomorrow's two year auction will be maybe the most well 0:03:16.480 --> 0:03:19.760 bid this year of the this week's auctions, in part 0:03:19.840 --> 0:03:23.840 because the break even and the risk factors that you 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:26.480 can get at a four percent two year yield means 0:03:26.480 --> 0:03:28.720 that basically yields have to double over the next year 0:03:28.840 --> 0:03:31.840 for people to start losing money. So you're if you're 0:03:31.880 --> 0:03:36.120 an investor, whether you're benchmark to some index or you 0:03:36.280 --> 0:03:40.080 just want to hide somewhere, the two year I think 0:03:40.120 --> 0:03:42.480 will still get pretty good demand, But those fives and 0:03:42.560 --> 0:03:46.120 sevens are the question, Alex, and I think that they'll 0:03:46.120 --> 0:03:49.440 probably do okay. And I'm basing that on the fact 0:03:49.440 --> 0:03:52.160 that last week's twenty year and the twenty year auctions 0:03:52.480 --> 0:03:55.840 have not gone particularly well in general over the last 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:59.000 couple of years. But last week it was very strong. 0:03:59.040 --> 0:04:01.840 Auction was one of the strongest twenty year auctions that 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:06.280 we've actually had since that point was reintroduced. And so 0:04:06.600 --> 0:04:08.560 I do think that that fines and sevens this week 0:04:08.600 --> 0:04:11.480 will probably go okay, particularly if they cheapen up a 0:04:11.480 --> 0:04:13.800 little bit here over the next forty eight hours. 0:04:13.960 --> 0:04:15.680 As Paul, have you totally tuned out at this moment 0:04:15.680 --> 0:04:17.279 because I was talking about auctions. 0:04:16.960 --> 0:04:18.400 Yes, sweet, I did, absolutely. 0:04:18.480 --> 0:04:20.320 I feel you, I, but I'm ready to follow up here. 0:04:20.520 --> 0:04:22.240 What's the soccer match we got to focus on in 0:04:22.279 --> 0:04:23.560 the next couple of days here? I? 0:04:24.760 --> 0:04:27.320 Oh, well, I'm still I'm still depressed that the United 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.640 States came in fourth in the Nations League in over 0:04:31.640 --> 0:04:34.799 the weekend, losing to both to both Panama and Canada 0:04:34.839 --> 0:04:38.279 in the consolation game. So you know, ask me later 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:40.280 this week and I'll let you know. 0:04:40.600 --> 0:04:42.720 He got him off his game. All right, Iran, thank 0:04:42.720 --> 0:04:44.560 you so much. We appreciate it. Ivery Jersey Chief, you 0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:49.320 wish interest rate strategist, Chief International soccer strategist for bloomerg Intelligence. 0:04:49.360 --> 0:04:50.159 You wears two hats. 0:04:50.760 --> 0:04:52.039 There. 0:04:52.680 --> 0:04:56.360 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:04:56.440 --> 0:04:59.760 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarklay and Android Auto 0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:03.200 the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get 0:05:03.240 --> 0:05:06.440 your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:05:06.760 --> 0:05:08.799 Alex Deal, You're alongside paulse We need this at Bloomberg 0:05:08.800 --> 0:05:12.120 Intelligence Radio. Happy rainy Monday in New York. Were broadcasting 0:05:12.160 --> 0:05:15.640 live from our interactive broken studio right here in Mintown, Manhattan, 0:05:15.640 --> 0:05:18.360 and also check us out on YouTube as well. I's 0:05:18.400 --> 0:05:20.200 got to check in on the markets. We're obviously seeing 0:05:20.200 --> 0:05:22.599 a relief rally here. It's definitely a risk on kind 0:05:22.600 --> 0:05:24.159 of day. Does it last? What do you do with it? 0:05:24.240 --> 0:05:27.919 Danian Dioria is co chief investment officer at Investment, joining 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:30.080 us now from Hartford Data. Is this the kind of 0:05:30.120 --> 0:05:32.200 day that you sell into rallies or do you feel like, 0:05:32.240 --> 0:05:33.159 all right, things are going to. 0:05:33.200 --> 0:05:34.960 Go well well? 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:39.560 I mean, you know, the obviously the correction that preceded 0:05:39.560 --> 0:05:42.240 all of this was a lot more sentiment driven, I 0:05:42.279 --> 0:05:45.600 think than fundamentals driven. And so you know, if you're 0:05:45.600 --> 0:05:47.640 going to be trading on any of these moves in 0:05:47.680 --> 0:05:49.800 the market, you know, any of the hey, now we're 0:05:49.800 --> 0:05:50.200 going to have a. 0:05:50.160 --> 0:05:53.160 Lot of tear ffs, no apso we're cutting back. It's 0:05:53.160 --> 0:05:54.760 going to be the dirty fifteen. It's not going to 0:05:54.800 --> 0:05:55.880 be everybody, et cetera. 0:05:56.440 --> 0:05:59.520 Then yeah, this is probably a buying moment I think 0:05:59.560 --> 0:06:02.880 for the app person. You know, in the average investor, 0:06:02.960 --> 0:06:06.320 it's more about what are the fundamentals here? Do we 0:06:06.400 --> 0:06:09.320 actually think you know, the kind of the tariff tantrum 0:06:09.400 --> 0:06:11.520 that we're going through and have been going through and 0:06:11.560 --> 0:06:15.080 will continue to you know, in spite of a little 0:06:15.120 --> 0:06:17.719 bit of positive news on that front, you know, is 0:06:17.760 --> 0:06:20.440 that is that something that's going to ultimately lead to 0:06:21.320 --> 0:06:24.720 broader concerns in the market. And you know, look, corrections 0:06:24.800 --> 0:06:28.200 three quarters of the time don't lead to recessions. But 0:06:28.520 --> 0:06:30.880 you know, a lot of it depends on what news 0:06:30.960 --> 0:06:31.479 is yet. 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:31.880 To come. 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:37.640 For a world where there is some level of uncertainly 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:41.880 maybe greater than average. Is it a way you construct 0:06:41.920 --> 0:06:46.240 your portfolio, is how you allocate your assets or just 0:06:46.320 --> 0:06:48.400 buy quality and I guess hope for the best. 0:06:49.320 --> 0:06:49.599 Yeah. 0:06:49.640 --> 0:06:51.400 So I mean, look, there's a there's a lot of 0:06:51.400 --> 0:06:54.200 different ways you can kind of come at this. Certainly, 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:56.400 and we sit you know, investments, it's at the junction 0:06:56.440 --> 0:06:57.440 of a lot of manager there's. 0:06:57.279 --> 0:06:58.320 A lot of research services. 0:06:58.320 --> 0:07:01.839 I mean, certainly you're hearing a lot more international speak. 0:07:02.040 --> 0:07:05.320 You know, obviously I came into this year, I'll be 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:09.279 honest with you. We do these chief Investment Officer panels everywhere, 0:07:09.640 --> 0:07:12.800 and the idea of US dominance was just you know, 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:16.360 very much a theme at these panels. And you know, look, 0:07:16.440 --> 0:07:20.760 markets are cyclical, and certainly the US markets had much 0:07:20.800 --> 0:07:22.720 higher valuations than international markets. 0:07:22.760 --> 0:07:25.440 I think you're seeing some repricing of that now. 0:07:25.840 --> 0:07:28.680 But you know, the tone has shifted, right, and you're 0:07:28.680 --> 0:07:32.200 hearing more around well, hey, maybe international diversification is a 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:35.000 good idea in portfolios. We would say that's a long 0:07:35.080 --> 0:07:39.640 run secular asset allocation need you know, for most people, right, 0:07:39.720 --> 0:07:43.520 unless you're unless you're completely focused on US indexes and 0:07:43.880 --> 0:07:46.560 can't handle the tracking error, we would largely say be 0:07:46.640 --> 0:07:47.960 diverse bied international markets. 0:07:47.960 --> 0:07:49.480 Anyway, we are certainly. 0:07:49.160 --> 0:07:52.040 Hearing more now even from a news and macro perspective, 0:07:52.120 --> 0:07:56.360 that looking at international you know, having diversification away from 0:07:56.520 --> 0:07:57.440 US makes sense. 0:07:57.760 --> 0:07:59.480 And does that do you have to sell something to 0:07:59.520 --> 0:08:01.800 then buy or is this like, hey, I had some cash, 0:08:01.840 --> 0:08:02.600 I'm going to deploy. 0:08:03.920 --> 0:08:06.520 Well, you know, that's a great question because of course. 0:08:06.280 --> 0:08:08.200 We've been living in the last few years with this 0:08:08.760 --> 0:08:13.120 massive amount of money sitting in cash. And while it's great, 0:08:13.320 --> 0:08:16.120 you know, we're past these years of financial repression for 0:08:16.240 --> 0:08:16.920 just savers. 0:08:17.600 --> 0:08:19.200 We all know that, you know that kind of. 0:08:19.200 --> 0:08:21.800 The traditional wisdom is unless it's money you need in 0:08:21.800 --> 0:08:23.120 the next three years. 0:08:22.960 --> 0:08:25.520 It's probably better served than sitting in cash. 0:08:25.640 --> 0:08:28.000 So there are certainly people with money on the sidelines 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:31.400 who they've missed, you know, whopping twenty plus percent two 0:08:31.440 --> 0:08:33.520 years in a row from the S and P for example, 0:08:33.840 --> 0:08:36.040 And as we all know, you know, it's time in 0:08:36.080 --> 0:08:39.160 the market, right, if you're missing those big months, years, 0:08:39.200 --> 0:08:41.560 et cetera, it's really hard to make that back up 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:42.800 when you look at the average that. 0:08:42.760 --> 0:08:44.199 You accumulate over time. 0:08:44.600 --> 0:08:46.880 So look, if you if you have long run money 0:08:46.880 --> 0:08:49.120 sitting in cash, for sure, we would say put that 0:08:49.160 --> 0:08:52.000 into a balanced portfolio. But the other side of the 0:08:52.000 --> 0:08:53.720 coin is you've also got a lot of people who 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:57.120 leaned into stocks, right, very pro growth optimism that we 0:08:57.160 --> 0:09:00.920 started the year. You know, obviously big run up, especially 0:09:01.000 --> 0:09:03.400 driven by growth, and so you have people who are 0:09:03.400 --> 0:09:06.560 overweight equities. And if your overweight equities relative to your 0:09:06.600 --> 0:09:08.800 risk tolerance and what you can handle, you know, you 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:12.200 should be thinking about harvesting from the equity position if 0:09:12.200 --> 0:09:14.400 you're doing more equity, and you should also be thinking 0:09:14.400 --> 0:09:15.920 about getting more into fixed income. 0:09:16.400 --> 0:09:18.880 Well, in your notes, you've got bitcoin is no gold, 0:09:18.960 --> 0:09:21.280 So let me get your thoughts on bitcoin. 0:09:22.360 --> 0:09:26.319 Yeah, you know it's bitcoin is one dred percent from 0:09:26.320 --> 0:09:29.880 my perspective, a risk on speculative asset. I we read 0:09:29.920 --> 0:09:33.040 and you know you're seeing headlines obviously now comparing kind 0:09:33.040 --> 0:09:35.720 of the performance of bitcoin and gold are these places 0:09:35.760 --> 0:09:41.800 to kind of hot out, say again, good, thank you? Yeah, 0:09:41.840 --> 0:09:43.920 so so so look are these places to hide out? 0:09:43.920 --> 0:09:45.880 And we would just very much point out that they 0:09:45.920 --> 0:09:48.360 are massively different. You know, when people think about a 0:09:48.360 --> 0:09:51.040 bitcoin investment, they're not thinking about it a as a 0:09:51.080 --> 0:09:54.240 currency or b as you know, certainly you know, there's 0:09:54.240 --> 0:09:57.560 an argument that this is another form it's digital gold, 0:09:58.120 --> 0:10:00.760 but from the standpoint of the volatility of these assets, 0:10:00.800 --> 0:10:01.760 there's no comparison. 0:10:02.120 --> 0:10:04.560 And when you're thinking about bitcoin, it's really kind. 0:10:04.400 --> 0:10:07.160 Of more this asymmetric payoff, the potential for sort of 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:08.640 like a lott of like return. 0:10:09.040 --> 0:10:09.840 If you want. 0:10:09.640 --> 0:10:13.400 That, that's fine, But thinking that it looks like gold 0:10:13.440 --> 0:10:15.280 and is going to be a safe haven asset I 0:10:15.280 --> 0:10:16.679 think doesn't work. 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:19.320 Okay, So that kind of lined me up for the 0:10:19.320 --> 0:10:22.360 safe haven part. So all this taking into effect what's 0:10:22.400 --> 0:10:24.240 like your best safe haven trade right now? 0:10:26.040 --> 0:10:29.160 Certainly fixed income, you know, the standard place to have 0:10:29.240 --> 0:10:31.360 ballast in the portfolio, I think makes a lot. 0:10:31.200 --> 0:10:31.920 Of sense still. 0:10:32.880 --> 0:10:35.160 You know, but if you're talking about with inequity markets, 0:10:35.160 --> 0:10:37.319 you started off there actually mentioned quality. 0:10:37.480 --> 0:10:39.360 There's a couple of different ways to go after quality. 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:42.640 You can do you know, traditional quality is a fundamental indicator. 0:10:42.760 --> 0:10:46.400 You're looking for stocks that or you know, frankly ETFs 0:10:46.520 --> 0:10:49.600 or mutual funds with a bevy of stocks that have 0:10:50.120 --> 0:10:54.200 high quality earnings, right, so high profitability, you know, not 0:10:54.280 --> 0:10:56.680 the need to reinvest plow a lot of money back in, 0:10:57.880 --> 0:11:01.840 you know, and also probably you know, cash based earnings 0:11:01.840 --> 0:11:04.400 more than a cruel based earnings. So that's one indicator. 0:11:04.640 --> 0:11:07.440 Another is more technical indicator, of course, which is just 0:11:07.679 --> 0:11:10.400 what is the volatility of that stock? And you've got 0:11:10.440 --> 0:11:12.120 a lot of ways to make that play to the 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:15.720 traditional defensive sort of you can pick low volatility stocks, 0:11:16.080 --> 0:11:18.560 or you can pick kind of minimum variants where you know, 0:11:18.600 --> 0:11:21.200 the stock itself maybe is not the lowest volatility, but 0:11:21.400 --> 0:11:23.440 it doesn't correlate well with the rest of the market, 0:11:23.520 --> 0:11:25.599 so it adds sort of padding to the rest of 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:26.320 the portfolio. 0:11:26.480 --> 0:11:27.959 That's a really good point, all right, Dana, Thanks Slot. 0:11:28.040 --> 0:11:31.120 We really appreciated Dana Diyoria, a CoA Chief investment officer 0:11:31.160 --> 0:11:33.320 at Investnet joining us on the markets. 0:11:35.040 --> 0:11:38.720 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live 0:11:38.800 --> 0:11:42.160 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 0:11:42.280 --> 0:11:45.360 with the Bloomberg business app listen on demand wherever you 0:11:45.400 --> 0:11:48.360 get your podcasts, or watch US live on YouTube. 0:11:48.840 --> 0:11:51.560 The other wild carbon than the Trump administration is how 0:11:51.679 --> 0:11:54.800 the talks unfold when it comes to peace between Russia 0:11:54.880 --> 0:11:57.760 and Ukraine. Apparently US and Russian officials are meeting in 0:11:57.800 --> 0:12:01.120 Saudi Arabia to discuss a potential CEA spot in the war, 0:12:01.200 --> 0:12:03.520 and this of course follows talks between the American and 0:12:03.679 --> 0:12:06.640 Ukrainian teams joining US now. As Roz mathis and Bloomberg 0:12:06.679 --> 0:12:09.640 News director for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, Roz, 0:12:09.679 --> 0:12:11.160 what do you know in terms of where the talks 0:12:11.200 --> 0:12:12.920 are well? 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:15.520 As you were saying, we had talks initially between the 0:12:15.679 --> 0:12:18.959 US and Ukraine officials in Saudi Arabia. Now we've got 0:12:19.000 --> 0:12:22.000 talks that have been going on today between the US 0:12:22.040 --> 0:12:25.080 and Russia, and they seem to be really granular and 0:12:25.120 --> 0:12:29.959 quite technical in nature, focused on some specifics around perhaps 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:34.920 getting agreement for ceaespar and maritime traffic in the Black Sea, 0:12:35.559 --> 0:12:38.800 for example. We're not getting a lot of redoubts at 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.360 the moment from those conversations, so they seem to have 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:43.960 gone into a bit of a quiet phase on it, 0:12:44.040 --> 0:12:47.520 at least with each other. But the sense is they're 0:12:47.520 --> 0:12:50.160 going bit by bit and this idea of a ceasefi 0:12:50.840 --> 0:12:54.400 in Ukraine. We had that conversation aitially around in a 0:12:54.520 --> 0:12:58.439 CESFI fit not hitting each other's energy infrastructure even though 0:12:58.480 --> 0:13:02.120 attack seemingly are still going on in the minute. And 0:13:02.160 --> 0:13:04.880 now we've got conversations around how to get you know, 0:13:04.960 --> 0:13:08.880 guarantees around traffic, maritime traffic in the Black Sea. But 0:13:08.920 --> 0:13:11.160 the big one, of course is what to do where 0:13:11.200 --> 0:13:14.240 people are actually fighting along the line of contact, which 0:13:14.280 --> 0:13:18.960 is a very long line on the side of Ukraine, 0:13:19.280 --> 0:13:21.480 and what to do there in terms of bringing the 0:13:21.480 --> 0:13:23.440 fighting to a holt. There doesn't seem to be any 0:13:23.440 --> 0:13:26.520 particular developments on that front so far. So the message 0:13:26.559 --> 0:13:28.640 really that we're getting is that even though the US 0:13:28.720 --> 0:13:32.440 President clearly wants a very quick ceasefire here, that there's 0:13:32.480 --> 0:13:34.439 a lot of steps that need to happen, a lot 0:13:34.440 --> 0:13:36.000 of complexity along the way. 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:39.400 And rise as you point out, the US administration certainly 0:13:39.400 --> 0:13:43.480 hopes for a Ukraine piece deal, but it doesn't seem 0:13:43.600 --> 0:13:46.600 like Vladimir Putin is in any hurry here. What do 0:13:46.640 --> 0:13:47.920 we know about his thinking? 0:13:49.480 --> 0:13:51.720 Well, that's right, I mean, obviously he's willing to have 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:55.520 conversations and perhaps even a direct meeting with the US 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:58.520 President with Donald Trump at some point in the near future, 0:13:58.559 --> 0:14:02.160 perhaps in a place like Arabia again. But he's made 0:14:02.160 --> 0:14:04.680 it really clear, and that's by our own reporting and 0:14:04.720 --> 0:14:07.680 our own sourcing as well, is that he's got Maximum's 0:14:07.720 --> 0:14:10.080 demands here and he's not going to shave those down 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.840 in any great hurry. These are things that he says 0:14:12.840 --> 0:14:16.400 that he insists need to happen for there to be 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:20.040 a cease fire moving towards a more permanent deal, and 0:14:20.080 --> 0:14:22.520 those are essentially red lines that are not that great 0:14:22.560 --> 0:14:25.000 for Ukraine in all of this, in terms of his 0:14:25.200 --> 0:14:29.360 territorial demands to make sure that Ukraine can never join NATO, 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:34.720 for example, to really know confence Ukraine in and whether 0:14:34.880 --> 0:14:37.280 those are just demands that he gets traction on with 0:14:37.720 --> 0:14:41.040 Donald Trump and the US in the end that are 0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:44.840 detrimental to Ukraine. So he's not in any great hurry 0:14:44.920 --> 0:14:48.000 here to get to a ceaspar final dear, He's obviously 0:14:48.040 --> 0:14:50.880 open to talking, but the position from Russia has been 0:14:51.000 --> 0:14:53.440 very clear. They've got demands and they want them met. 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:58.160 What about Europe? Where's Europe right now? In during these conversations, 0:14:59.520 --> 0:15:01.880 still trying to get in the door, it seems from 0:15:01.880 --> 0:15:04.640 the conversation in a fulsome way at least. 0:15:04.640 --> 0:15:06.840 I mean, obviously we've had a lot of meetings that 0:15:06.880 --> 0:15:09.240 have gone on just at the EU level lately, including 0:15:09.680 --> 0:15:12.840 last week, and Ealy is having another call this week. 0:15:12.880 --> 0:15:15.120 We know that again the US pent the UK Prime 0:15:15.120 --> 0:15:18.160 Minister rather talked with Donald Trump yet again. So a 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:22.160 lot of conversations going on, and the message from Europe 0:15:22.240 --> 0:15:24.680 is we need to be part of the discussion around 0:15:24.680 --> 0:15:28.440 a CEASPA, and Ukraine's interesting to be represented, but it's 0:15:28.560 --> 0:15:32.080 very clear that they know they're struggling to get a 0:15:32.160 --> 0:15:34.320 seat at the table and that Donald Trump is not 0:15:34.880 --> 0:15:37.880 particularly interested in giving them one at the table, let 0:15:37.920 --> 0:15:40.960 alone giving Ukraine a proper seat at the table. And 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:43.960 so for Europe the challenge is getting their voice is heard, 0:15:44.400 --> 0:15:46.240 or showing that they're there and able to pick up 0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:48.640 some of the slack potentially and supporting Ukraine. 0:15:49.360 --> 0:15:52.680 Roz Is there any sense of timing when this could 0:15:52.760 --> 0:15:55.240 come together? Is there any consensus building out there? 0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:59.000 Well, it's very hard to say, because again these talks 0:15:59.120 --> 0:16:00.880 that are going on at the moment seemed to have 0:16:00.920 --> 0:16:04.840 been very technical in nature and very specific around detail. 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:07.479 So are we getting the little pieces of the chessboard 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:12.040 towards a bigger CEASPA at some point? Imagine? The key 0:16:12.040 --> 0:16:14.280 thing is whether there's an agreement to have further rounds 0:16:14.280 --> 0:16:17.560 of talks within a matter of days or at least 0:16:17.960 --> 0:16:18.800 towards the end. 0:16:19.200 --> 0:16:19.760 Of this week. 0:16:19.800 --> 0:16:21.600 And at what point can that build to a direct 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:25.560 meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, possibly as soon 0:16:25.600 --> 0:16:28.720 as next month. I mean, obviously Donald Trump keeps saying 0:16:28.760 --> 0:16:31.800 Easter as a timeline. He wants something by Easter. But 0:16:31.880 --> 0:16:34.440 what exactly he would be happy to get by easter? 0:16:34.760 --> 0:16:38.760 Is it a partial ceasepar again around energy, or perhaps 0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:42.080 maritime traffic in the Black Sea as a springboard to 0:16:42.120 --> 0:16:45.240 something else. So we're likely to get a full throat 0:16:45.240 --> 0:16:47.960 at CSPA either way, at least in the next couple 0:16:48.000 --> 0:16:48.440 of weeks. 0:16:48.840 --> 0:16:51.000 All right, Ros, thanks a lot, We really appreciate it. 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:54.320 Ras Mathison joining us on the talks between Russia and 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:57.720 the US on Ukraine. All right, some breaking news for you, 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:01.520 ASHALLMI is said to raise about five point five billion 0:17:01.560 --> 0:17:04.960 dollars an upsized share placement. They were selling about eight 0:17:05.040 --> 0:17:08.200 hundred million shares now, Shelmy was kicking off a share 0:17:08.240 --> 0:17:11.560 sale in part to raise funds for its EV business. 0:17:12.480 --> 0:17:15.040 The fundraising expected to be a long term positive for 0:17:15.080 --> 0:17:17.639 the company, but many saying that it may pressure shale 0:17:17.760 --> 0:17:20.280 shares in the short term due to shocker dilution. 0:17:20.640 --> 0:17:22.840 And the stock is up bus sixty five percent year 0:17:22.880 --> 0:17:24.959 to date and two hundred and eighty five percent on 0:17:24.960 --> 0:17:27.640 a trilling a twelve month basis. Even I know that's 0:17:27.680 --> 0:17:28.600 a good time to self stock. 0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:31.000 Yeah, it is, and they take your point, all right. 0:17:31.000 --> 0:17:33.480 Coming up R J. Gallows, Senior portfolio manager Fixed and 0:17:33.560 --> 0:17:35.879 come at Federate Hermes will be joining us on the 0:17:35.920 --> 0:17:38.600 fixed income space. We get two fives and tens later 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:42.240 on this week. A lot of supply coming online there. 0:17:42.920 --> 0:17:46.600 You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live 0:17:46.680 --> 0:17:50.080 weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 0:17:50.160 --> 0:17:53.240 with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you 0:17:53.280 --> 0:17:56.280 get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 0:17:56.960 --> 0:18:00.960 Switch over to the EV business interest story out there 0:18:01.040 --> 0:18:03.400 that's really been rocking. I think the EV business that's 0:18:03.480 --> 0:18:06.359 byd you know, saying they've gon have a five minute 0:18:06.440 --> 0:18:09.119 charging system that is a game changer if that is 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:11.639 in fact the case. Let's check in with bn EF 0:18:11.920 --> 0:18:15.280 folks here b n EF. They cover all the energy 0:18:15.480 --> 0:18:19.000 industry head to toe. Alex's b but they've got all 0:18:19.080 --> 0:18:21.640 the data, all the analysis. Great stuff. Ryan Fisher joins 0:18:21.680 --> 0:18:25.880 us Bloomberg bn EF EV Charging team leader. So Ryan, 0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.080 talk to us about this by d story as relates 0:18:29.119 --> 0:18:30.199 to this fast charger. 0:18:31.400 --> 0:18:33.480 Yeah, I mean this has just come out of nowhere. 0:18:33.480 --> 0:18:37.040 In some ways, we had the portions of this world 0:18:37.080 --> 0:18:40.560 doing charging three fifty KILLOW. This is a thousand killer 0:18:40.600 --> 0:18:42.520 what we were three to four times the kind of 0:18:42.600 --> 0:18:45.960 other best in class that people were expecting when we 0:18:45.960 --> 0:18:49.119 talk about five minutes. Obviously, that's similar to gasoline for 0:18:49.200 --> 0:18:52.040 four hundred kilometers of charge. Some of the others are 0:18:52.080 --> 0:18:55.879 more like the best in class. Lucid obviously is quite famous. 0:18:55.920 --> 0:18:58.119 They're doing it in like one hundred maybe one hundred 0:18:58.119 --> 0:18:59.520 and eighty kilometers in that time. 0:19:00.119 --> 0:19:01.200 This is a real step change. 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:03.359 And not only is it that, what you've got is 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:05.959 an announcement and they're going to do it, going to 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.520 make the vehicles available a month later. So typically you 0:19:08.600 --> 0:19:11.120 might hear an announcement from a Western automaker and maybe 0:19:11.119 --> 0:19:12.960 a couple of years later that tech you've heard about 0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.440 will be there. Whereas they're saying these vehicles in China, 0:19:15.680 --> 0:19:17.480