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Speaker 1: Pushkin. This episode of Cautionary Tales is made possible by

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Speaker 1: HBO and their new series The Regime, which depicts a

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Speaker 1: crisis in the rule of a fictional dictator, Elena Vernham,

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Speaker 1: played by Kate Winslet. You can stream The Regime now

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Speaker 1: on Max and you can find more episodes of this

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Speaker 1: show Cautionary Tales wherever you get your podcasts. The Regime

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Speaker 1: is inspired by real events and real characters, including the

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Speaker 1: Romanian dictator Nikolai Shawshesku and his wife another Elena. Today's

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Speaker 1: cautionary tale is all about their downfall and a word

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Speaker 1: of warning. It does contain one or two little spoilers

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Speaker 1: for the Regime, so you might prefer to watch that

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Speaker 1: first stick around at the end of this true story

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Speaker 1: to peer behind the scenes of the Regime and hear

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Speaker 1: me in conversation with writer, executive producer and showrunner Will Tracy.

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Speaker 1: But for now on with the episode. Dr Nicolay Dekker

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Speaker 1: is driving home in his little red Datcha after finishing

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Speaker 1: his shift at the local hospital. Dr Deker is a short,

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Speaker 1: stout man in his fifties. He's puttering along a quiet

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Speaker 1: country road fifty odd miles outside book arrest Romania. The

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Speaker 1: year is nineteen eighty nine, early in the afternoon on

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Speaker 1: the last Friday before Christmas. Dr Dekker has made this

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Speaker 1: journey many times, but today everything is different. The news

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Speaker 1: had buzzed around the hospital. The hated dictator Nikolai Chowsescu

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Speaker 1: and his even more hated wife Elena are on the run.

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Speaker 1: Protest as in book Arest took over for their palace.

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Speaker 1: They fled by helicopter. Now they were who knows where.

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Speaker 1: Maybe I'll catch the bastards on my way home, joked

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Speaker 1: Dr Decker. For nearly twenty five years, the country has

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Speaker 1: been in the grip of the increasingly deranged Chowshescus. Now

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Speaker 1: they're gone. What comes next? Dodor Decker drives along, lost

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Speaker 1: in thought. His reverie is interrupted by the sight of

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Speaker 1: a big man at the side of the road, urgently

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Speaker 1: flagging him down. A big man with a submachine gun.

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Speaker 1: Dr Decker pulls over. The big man clambers into the

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Speaker 1: back seat of the datcher. An old woman gets in

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Speaker 1: next to him, then into the passenger seat of the

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Speaker 1: little red DATCHA climbs a short, old man with a

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Speaker 1: graying pompadour and a wild eyed look. On him his face.

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Speaker 1: It's the chow Chescus, Nikolay and Elena and what must

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Speaker 1: be a bodyguard. Drive, says the bodyguard. Doctor Deca drives.

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Speaker 1: Have you heard about what happened? The old dictator asks him.

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Speaker 1: The doctor decides to play dumb. No, he says, I've

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Speaker 1: just finished my shift at the hospital. I haven't heard

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Speaker 1: any news. There's been a coup, says Nikolay chow Chescu darkly.

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Speaker 1: Then we must organize the resistance.

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Speaker 2: Are you with us?

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Speaker 1: Dr Deca is horrified. He can't say yes. He despises

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Speaker 1: the chow chescuse everyone does, but he's acutely aware that

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Speaker 1: their bodyguard is sitting right behind him with a gun.

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Speaker 1: In this moment, Doctor Decca embodies the predicament the Romanian

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Speaker 1: people have faced over the last quarter century. The doctor

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Speaker 1: grips the steering wheel of the little red datcha.

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Speaker 2: What to do?

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Speaker 1: I'm Tim Harford and you're listening to cautionary tales. In Bukarest,

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Speaker 1: Romania stands one of the world's biggest buildings, the Palace

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Speaker 1: of the Parliament. I went there once years ago. It's

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Speaker 1: not an experience you easily forget. The Palace of the

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Speaker 1: parliament is fast. It's seven times the size of the

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Speaker 1: Palace of Versailles, and at least as opulent, all intricately

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Speaker 1: carved wood, gold leaf, and marble colonnades, enough marble to

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Speaker 1: build a column twelve feet wide and sixty miles high,

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Speaker 1: says the tour guide. She takes us from one ludicrously

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Speaker 1: oversized room to the next. Forty foot ceilings, five ton chandeliers,

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Speaker 1: fifty acres of carpet. The carpets had to be woven

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Speaker 1: in the rooms because they'd be too big to carry

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Speaker 1: if you made them elsewhere. The tour goes on and on,

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Speaker 1: room after room after room, and still you see just

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Speaker 1: a fraction of this astonishing structure. If you didn't know

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Speaker 1: its history, what would you think of this place? It would,

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Speaker 1: I reckon leave you cold. Externally, the architecture is boring, functional,

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Speaker 1: almost brutalist. Inside, it's a display of wealth, but not

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Speaker 1: of taste. There's no artistic vision, just bling piled upon bling.

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Speaker 1: But when you do know the history, it doesn't leave

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Speaker 1: you cold. It makes you see. The palace was built

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Speaker 1: on the orders of Nikolai Chowshescu, the dictator remembered mainly

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Speaker 1: for his disastrous ban on birth control, which led to

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Speaker 1: hundreds of thousands of unwonted children being left to rot

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Speaker 1: in squalid orphanages. As the palace was going up, Chowsescu's

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Speaker 1: policies were pushing the Romanian people deeper into poverty, with

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Speaker 1: rationing of food and heat turned off during the biting

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Speaker 1: Romanian winters. Out on the balcony, you look straight down

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Speaker 1: the two mile boulevard that leads up to the palace,

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Speaker 1: a boulevard longer and wider than the chance of Lysee

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Speaker 1: in Paris, and you think of the swathes of old

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Speaker 1: buildings that Chowchescu ordered to be demolished to build his

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Speaker 1: boulevard and his palace. The homes of forty thousand people

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Speaker 1: were bulldozed to make way for this monument to Megalomania,

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Speaker 1: A gilded marble middle finger raised to the city. Nikolai

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Speaker 1: Choschescu was born in nineteen eighteen into a peasant family.

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Speaker 1: As soon as he had finished primary school in his village,

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Speaker 1: his parents sent him off to the city Bucharest to

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Speaker 1: earn his way as an apprentice shoemaker, but Nikolay soon

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Speaker 1: developed other ideas. He discovered Marx and Lenin and became

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Speaker 1: a Communist. Nikolai seems to have been deeply earnest in

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Speaker 1: his beliefs. Stories from his youth. Paint a picture of

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Speaker 1: a hue, m Willis Zelot. Well, let's ask his son Valentine,

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Speaker 1: who incredibly turned out or right. Soon after his parents

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Speaker 1: were forced from power, Valentine Sharsescu sat down with the

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Speaker 1: British journalist John Sweeney. The new kind of politicians, said Valentine.

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Speaker 1: Lie all the time. My father was one of the

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Speaker 1: old kind. He was driven by some kind of fanaticism,

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Speaker 1: this belief that you can do good. It's a sort

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Speaker 1: of madness. After the Second World War, the Communist Party

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Speaker 1: took power in Romania, Nicolai became a rising star. In

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Speaker 1: nineteen sixty five, when the party needed a new leader,

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Speaker 1: they turned to him. At first, Nikolay seemed to be

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Speaker 1: a relative good guy among the communist dictators of Eastern Europe.

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Speaker 1: He seemed more open to engaging with the West. He

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Speaker 1: wasn't afraid to disagree with the Soviet Union. But then

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Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy one, Nikolai and Elena went on a

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Speaker 1: state visit to Asia. In North Korea, Nikolay saw how

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Speaker 1: every room contained a photograph of Kim Il Sung and

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Speaker 1: a sixty foot statue of the great leader dominated the

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Speaker 1: Pyongyang skyline. This thought, Nikolai is a proper level of

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Speaker 1: respect in China. Elena had an epiphany of her own.

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Speaker 1: She saw that Chairman Mao's wife had a personality cult

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Speaker 1: as powerful as that of Mao himself. That she thought

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Speaker 1: is how a leader's wife should be treated. Elena Chowshsku,

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Speaker 1: in the words of historian Mark Almond, combined arrogance, brutality, stupidity,

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Speaker 1: and self confidence. Like her husband, Elena had no schooling

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Speaker 1: beyond the village primary, where her report card suggests she

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Speaker 1: flunked almost every subject. But Elena decided to become a scientist.

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Speaker 1: She forced actual scientists to put her name on their papers.

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Speaker 1: She set herself up as world leading expert in the

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Speaker 1: stereo specific polymerization of isoprene. Every night Romanian television carried

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Speaker 1: a two hour update on the glorious deeds of Nikolai

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Speaker 1: and Elena Chowshescu. Newspapers gushed with praise. Elena's birthday said

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Speaker 1: one is a crucial date in Romanian history. Her husband's

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Speaker 1: underlings are based themselves the entire country highly appreciates the

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Speaker 1: outstanding activity you carry out in the field of science

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Speaker 1: and technology. It was all nonsense, of course, obvious nonsense,

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Speaker 1: though few dared say so openly fear of the securitate.

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Speaker 1: The secret police saw to that Romanians would let their

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Speaker 1: guard down only with people they felt they could trust.

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Speaker 1: There's an urban legend from the time that goes like this.

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Speaker 1: A friend of a friend was in a car that

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Speaker 1: broke down. He's stranded by the roadside when another car

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Speaker 1: pulls up and the driver says, where are you going

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Speaker 1: book arrested? Get in, says the driver, I'll give you

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Speaker 1: a lift. They start to talk. They get on well.

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Speaker 1: The hitchhiker tentatively ventures a comment about the state of

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Speaker 1: the economy. Yes, agrees the driver. Things are very bad,

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Speaker 1: and you know you can't believe a word you read

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Speaker 1: in the newspaper, a good harvest when there's so little

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Speaker 1: food in the shops. Before long, they're ripping into the

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Speaker 1: delusional dictator and his dim wife. They're roaring with laughter

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Speaker 1: and trading well worn jokes. Why is it a good

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Speaker 1: thing that porn magazines are banned in Romania? Because we

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Speaker 1: all know which couple would insist on being the centerfold

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Speaker 1: in every issue. They get to Bucharest and the passenger

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Speaker 1: thanks the driver for the lift and the conversation. We

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Speaker 1: never introduced ourselves, he says. He holds out a hand

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Speaker 1: and mentions his name. The driver shakes his hand warmly

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Speaker 1: in return and says, I'm Valentine Chowsescu. The story may

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Speaker 1: not have been true, but it captured a truth. Even

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Speaker 1: the couple's oldest son knew what was really going on

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Speaker 1: in Romania and felt just as powerless as everyone else.

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Speaker 1: And then, after twenty five years, suddenly and unexpectedly, the

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Speaker 1: people rose up. What does does it take to turn

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Speaker 1: sullen private grumbles into angry public protest? In this cautionary tale,

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Speaker 1: we'll meet two ideas that can help explain it. Dr

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Speaker 1: Deker is gripping the steering wheel of his little red Thatcher.

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Speaker 1: One minute he was quietly driving home from work. The

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Speaker 1: next he somehow got Nikolai Chowschesku in his passenger seat

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Speaker 1: and a layer in the back, along with their gun

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Speaker 1: toting bodyguard. We must organize the resistance, says the mad dictator.

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Speaker 1: Are you with us? Dr Decker tries to stone wall

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure I'd be much used to the resistance,

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Speaker 1: says Doctor Decker. I'm getting on a bit, you see,

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Speaker 1: and my health isn't the best. The doctor's mind is

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Speaker 1: whirring the whole country. He knows would love to lynch

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Speaker 1: the chowchescus if they're found in his car, he might

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Speaker 1: be lynched too.

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Speaker 2: How can he get rid of them?

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Speaker 1: He's approaching a village and he sees a man he

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Speaker 1: knows outside his house cleaning his car another little datcha.

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Speaker 1: Not many people have cars in communist Romania. In the villages,

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Speaker 1: you'll see more horses and carts, But everyone who does

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Speaker 1: have a car has a datcher. They aren't fame for

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Speaker 1: their reliability, and that gives doctor Decer an idea. Listen

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Speaker 1: to that engine, he says, it sounds like the carberetta

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Speaker 1: is about to fail. I'll better stop and get help.

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Speaker 1: Dr Decker pulls over. Cautionary tales will be back after

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Speaker 1: the break. This cautionary tale is made an association in

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Speaker 1: with HBO and their new series The Regime, which depicts

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Speaker 1: the rule and the fall of the fictional dictator Elena

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Speaker 1: Vernon after she's been toppled by a citizen uprising Elena

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Speaker 1: goes on the run with her confidante, Herbert. Zubac flags

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Speaker 1: down a bewildered citizen and jumps into the back of

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Speaker 1: his car. She too has a wild eyed look on

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Speaker 1: her face. You are joker.

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Speaker 2: Will you help your chancellor? Yes?

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Speaker 3: Yes?

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Speaker 4: Where are you loyal?

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Speaker 2: There? To your home?

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Speaker 1: It is a kind nice much like Dr Dekker. The

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Speaker 1: bewildered citizen drives off Elena and Zubac now in his charge.

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Speaker 1: But the outcome for fictional Elena and Zubac isn't quite

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Speaker 1: the as for their real life counterparts. If you haven't

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Speaker 1: seen the series yet, I won't spoil it for you.

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Speaker 1: Let's return to the true story of Nikolai and Elena Chowsescu.

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Speaker 1: When an international church asked Nikolai Chowchescu's permission to donate

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Speaker 1: twenty thousand Bibles to their Romanian branch, he said, of course.

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Speaker 1: Chousescu was keen to get investment from Western countries and

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Speaker 1: westerners in you like the idea of religious freedom. But

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Speaker 1: the bibles mysteriously went missing in transit. A few months later,

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Speaker 1: a batch of toilet rolls appeared in the shops with

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Speaker 1: fragments of verse still readable for religions in Romania, the

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Speaker 1: unspoken deal was clear, you can operate as long as

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Speaker 1: you don't cause any trouble. Religious leaders formed a multi

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Speaker 1: faith panel and issued joint statements. Called Chowsescu, the leaders agreed,

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Speaker 1: is a man of supreme wisdom, the greatest hero in

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Speaker 1: Romanian history. Every local priest knew that if they dared

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Speaker 1: to raise doubts about the wisdom of Chowsescu's policies, the

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Speaker 1: leader of their church would soon slap them back into line.

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Speaker 1: But one local priest risked it anyway. Laslo Tokas was

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Speaker 1: a pastor with the Hungarian Reformed Church in Tibershwara, a

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Speaker 1: city in western Romania just over the border from Hungary.

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Speaker 1: He spoke out against Chowsscu's program of systematization, a mad

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Speaker 1: grand plan to demolish half the country's villages and move

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Speaker 1: everyone into identicate high rise blocks in new agro industrial towns.

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Speaker 1: Toke's his boss, the bishop ordered his troublesome priest to

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Speaker 1: relocate to a new parish in a tiny, remote hamlet

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Speaker 1: at the end of a rutted track in the middle

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Speaker 1: of nowhere. No said Tokees, I won't go this parochial

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Speaker 1: dispute caught the attention of television journalists in Hungary, which

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Speaker 1: had just emerged from its own period of communist rule.

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Speaker 1: Journalists secretly recorded an interview with Tokees and managed to

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Speaker 1: smuggle the videotape over the border. Why are you putting

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Speaker 1: yourself at risk like this, they asked, As a minister

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Speaker 1: said Tokees, I feel myself responsible for the people. This

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Speaker 1: responsibility is all the more heavy as most of my

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Speaker 1: fellow ministers are silent. After the interview was broadcast, Tokees

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Speaker 1: found that his telephone line no longer worked most of

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Speaker 1: the time. Sometimes it rang, and when he picked it

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Speaker 1: up he heard a torrent of anonymous threats. Some members

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Speaker 1: of his congregation started getting threats too. One was found

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Speaker 1: dead in nearby woods. The bishop went to court to

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Speaker 1: get an eviction order that would force Tokees to move

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Speaker 1: to his new parish. Others tried a different approach. Four

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Speaker 1: masked men broken to tokees home and beat him up

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Speaker 1: in front of his pregnant wife and three year old son.

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Speaker 1: Tokees lost his court case on the date set for

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Speaker 1: his eviction, the fifteenth of December nineteen eighty nine. A

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Speaker 1: few parishioners gathered outside his house to sing psalms. More

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Speaker 1: people joined from different churches, and more and more. When

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Speaker 1: a truck arrived to take Tokees and his belongings away,

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Speaker 1: it couldn't get through. The mayor of Timishwara turned up

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Speaker 1: and told the crowd to disperse. Did not disperse. They

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Speaker 1: stayed through the night. By the following evening, five thousand

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Speaker 1: people were gathered around the house of Laslo Tokas. This

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Speaker 1: was no longer a show of mournful solidarity for a

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Speaker 1: priest facing eviction. It had morphed into a full on

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Speaker 1: protest against the regime. Nothing like this had ever happened

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Speaker 1: before in Chaoshescu's Romania. What explains it? One answer comes

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Speaker 1: from economics, the idea of an information cascade. This can

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Speaker 1: happen when people make a decision in sequence, one after

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Speaker 1: the other, such as which movie to watch, which product

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Speaker 1: to bile, which doc to invest in. We each have

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Speaker 1: our own private information on which we could base that decision,

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Speaker 1: but if we can also see what decisions were made

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Speaker 1: by others before us, we might think maybe they know

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Speaker 1: something I don't. We set aside what we originally thought

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Speaker 1: and make the same decision as everyone else. Cascades can

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Speaker 1: be sparked by an initial choice made by just a

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Speaker 1: few people, and they can lead us astray. Often other

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Speaker 1: people don't know something we don't. We join a queue

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Speaker 1: for a public toilet cubicle that turns out to be empty.

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Speaker 1: Everyone just assumed that the first person in line must

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Speaker 1: have checked. But cascades can also emboldness. Do we protest

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Speaker 1: against a repressive regime? Our private information says, of course not,

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Speaker 1: will be arrested or worse. Then we see a few

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Speaker 1: people singing psalms, or a few dozen blocking a removals truck.

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Speaker 1: They don't look afraid. Maybe they know something I don't.

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Speaker 1: In Timishwara, the crowd forget all about the priest laslow Tokas.

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Speaker 1: They're emboldened.

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Speaker 4: Now.

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Speaker 1: To let us out all their anger, they turn on

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Speaker 1: a bookshop. It's shelves piled high with the latest best

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Speaker 1: seller Romania on the Way of building up the multilaterally

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Speaker 1: developed Socialist Economy by Nikolai Chowchescu. They smash the bookshop's door,

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Speaker 1: throw the books into the square, and set them alight.

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Speaker 1: They break into the local headquarters of the Communist Party,

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Speaker 1: rip down all the portraits of the Chowchescus and add

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Speaker 1: them to the bonfire. Then the shootings start. Machine guns

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Speaker 1: spray indiscriminately into the crowd. How many are dead is?

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Speaker 1: It later turns out not quite a hundred, But in

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Speaker 1: the chaos, the carnage seems much greater. It's surely one thousand,

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Speaker 1: ten thousand, sixty thousand. Rumors of the massacre start to spread,

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Speaker 1: and the rumors are impossible for officials to quell because

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Speaker 1: one knows you can't believe a word you read in

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Speaker 1: the newspaper. Back in Book Arrest, two hundred and fifty

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Speaker 1: miles to the east, Nikolai blames foreign enemies. He decides

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Speaker 1: to give a speech to show the world that the

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Speaker 1: Romanian people still support him. They never realized, it, says

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Speaker 1: their son Valentine Chowshesku. They never realized that they were

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Speaker 1: not loved. Nikolai orders tens of thousands of workers to

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Speaker 1: be busted into central Book Arrest. It's a well worn routine.

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Speaker 1: The workers are given banners to hold with communist slogans

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Speaker 1: or big photos of Nikolai and Elena playing clothes. Members

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Speaker 1: of the Securitat stand at the front to lead the

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Speaker 1: applause and look enthusiastic for the television cameras comrades begins

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Speaker 1: Nikolai a warm revolutionary greeting, but then there's noise from

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Speaker 1: the crowd. A screen, a shout. What are they saying?

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Speaker 4: Tim Mishwara, Tim Mishwara, everyone's heard the rumors of a

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Speaker 4: massacre in Timishwara on live television.

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Speaker 1: Nikolai pauses. He looks confused. He raises his hand as

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Speaker 1: if to quell applause, but this isn't applause, and he

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Speaker 1: doesn't quell it. An apparatic appears behind him and mutters

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Speaker 1: in the dictator's ear. The microphone picks it up. They're

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Speaker 1: getting in. In a village outside of brook Arrest, thirty

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Speaker 1: five year old factory worker Nikolai Petrish is cleaning his

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Speaker 1: thatcher when a car pulls up at the roadside. He

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Speaker 1: recognizes the driver. It's doctor Dekker from the local hospital,

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Speaker 1: and that old man in the passenger seat is that

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Speaker 1: Petrashaw watches in astonishment as Nikolai and Elena Chowshsku get

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Speaker 1: out of doctor Deker's car and then get straight into

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Speaker 1: his car. They're followed by a big man who waves

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Speaker 1: his garden at Petra Shaw, get in and drive, he says.

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Speaker 1: Petra Shaw gets in and drives. He turns on the radio.

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Speaker 1: Out booms the jubilant voice of a dissident poet who's

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Speaker 1: been under house arrest. At last, we are free. Turn

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Speaker 1: that off, says the old dictator. Petra Shaw turns it off.

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Speaker 1: On the road ahead, villagers are gathered in the street

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Speaker 1: in spontaneous celebration. As Petra Shaw drives past the crowd,

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Speaker 1: someone notices who's in his passenger seat. Stones rain down

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Speaker 1: on the car. Petra Shaw's terrified. He stands on the accelerator,

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Speaker 1: urging the little data onwards.

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Speaker 2: But where to.

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Speaker 1: The bodyguard suggests they seek refuge at a steel works

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Speaker 1: that's somewhere near here, though he's not exactly sure how

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Speaker 1: to get there. Stop over there, he says to Petra Shaw,

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Speaker 1: I'll go and find someone to ask directions. The bodyguard

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Speaker 1: gets out and doesn't come back. Some children walk past

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Speaker 1: the car and start to shout, hey, look he's in there. Now.

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Speaker 1: Elena's got a pistol. She puts it to Petroshaw's neck.

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Speaker 1: Get us out of here, she says. Petra Shaw drives off.

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Speaker 1: Where can he take the old dictator and his wife.

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Speaker 1: They pass a nunnery. Perhaps the old couple can seek

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Speaker 1: refuge there. Get lost, say the nuns. Maybe they'd heard

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Speaker 1: about the toilet paper. There's a hotel for Communist party officials.

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Speaker 1: Surely they'll take him in. Sorry, we're fully booked. Petra

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Speaker 1: Shaw realizes they're close to an agricultural institute. He knows

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Speaker 1: the director, why not take them there? The director is

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Speaker 1: in his office, glued to the television news on the run.

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Speaker 1: The army is on the side of the people.

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Speaker 3: That loyalists and the sec.

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Speaker 1: Into the director's office, bursts a white faced Nikolai Petrashaw.

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Speaker 2: I've got the show.

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Speaker 1: Escu to the back of my car, he says. The

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Speaker 1: director is appalled. What did you bring them here for?

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Speaker 1: Corti retales will be back in a moment. Picture the scene.

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Speaker 1: A palace and a siege. Protesters rage unchecked to its hallways, pillaging, looting, smashing.

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Speaker 1: A fallen leader scrambles to escape by helicopter from the

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Speaker 1: palace roof. That's what happens in the HBO series The Regime.

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Speaker 1: But how do all powerful dictators, whether the fictional Elena

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Speaker 1: Vernum or the all too real Nikolai and Elena Chowshscu

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00:28:50,330 --> 00:28:55,970
Speaker 1: find their power suddenly evaporating. The answer turns on a

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Speaker 1: strange seeming question, what do we know about what other

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00:29:00,850 --> 00:29:04,090
Speaker 1: people know? Let me give you an example from a

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00:29:04,210 --> 00:29:07,930
Speaker 1: very different situation. Imagine that you're on a date. The

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Speaker 1: evening seems to have on well, you say, would you

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Speaker 1: like to come back to my place for coffee? Better

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Speaker 1: not comes the reply, I can't drink coffee late at night.

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Speaker 1: It keeps me up, except, as Seinfeld's George Costanzo once

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Speaker 1: realized just a little too late, Coffee's not coffee. Coffee

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Speaker 1: is sex. So why don't we just say, would you

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Speaker 1: like to come back to my place for sex? The

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Speaker 1: linguist Stephen Pinker is intrigued by that question, why do

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00:29:46,370 --> 00:29:51,610
Speaker 1: we use indirect speech such as euphemisms and innuendos. His

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Speaker 1: answer traces back to what seems like an obscure distinction

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Speaker 1: made in philosophy journals in the nineteen seventies between common

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Speaker 1: knowledge on the one hand, and mutual or shared knowledge

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Speaker 1: on the other. It's a slippery difference to grasp, so

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Speaker 1: so let's explore it with an example. What economic theorists

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Speaker 1: would call a game, a baker has to decide what

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Speaker 1: to bake to sell at the market. One thing she

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00:30:20,770 --> 00:30:23,610
Speaker 1: could bake is a batch of buns for hot dogs.

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Speaker 1: That would net her the most profit, but only if

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Speaker 1: the butcher has decided to make sausages. If the butcher

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Speaker 1: comes to market with something other than sausages, nobody will

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Speaker 1: buy the baker's buns. This is a variant of what

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Speaker 1: game theorists call a coordination problem. If the bakers and

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Speaker 1: butchers could agree to make bums and sausages, they'd both

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Speaker 1: be better off, but they can't talk to each other.

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Speaker 1: Each has to decide based on their expectation of what

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Speaker 1: the other will do. When Stephen Pinker and his colleagues

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Speaker 1: ran this experiment, they found that most bakers sensibly chose

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Speaker 1: not to gamble on the butcher's having made sausages. They

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Speaker 1: played safe by baking something other than bums. Then the

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00:31:10,890 --> 00:31:15,490
Speaker 1: experimenters changed the setup. They had a messenger visit each

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Speaker 1: baker and say just say no of talk to the butcher.

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Speaker 1: He's aware that hot dogs will fetch a high price

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Speaker 1: at the market. This is shared knowledge. The baker knows

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Speaker 1: that the butcher knows. Is that enough for them? To

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Speaker 1: gamble on baking the bums. This time, about half the

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Speaker 1: baker's decided to risk it. Then, in a final twist,

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Speaker 1: the experimenters made an announcement over a loud speaker, there's

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Speaker 1: a great profit margin on hot dogs. This time, the

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00:31:48,210 --> 00:31:51,610
Speaker 1: vast majority of the bakers chose to bake the bums.

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00:31:52,290 --> 00:31:55,490
Speaker 1: They knew the butchers had heard the announcement too, and

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00:31:55,530 --> 00:31:59,730
Speaker 1: felt sure they'd bring the sausages. The loud speaker turned

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00:31:59,970 --> 00:32:05,770
Speaker 1: shared knowledge into common knowledge. On the surface, that might

404
00:32:05,810 --> 00:32:09,410
Speaker 1: not seem like much of a change. After all, with

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Speaker 1: shared knowledge, the baker nw the butcher knew, but the

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00:32:13,010 --> 00:32:18,330
Speaker 1: loud speaker changed how people acted. Stephen Pinker argues that

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00:32:18,410 --> 00:32:22,610
Speaker 1: this transition from shared to common knowledge is a powerful

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00:32:22,690 --> 00:32:26,570
Speaker 1: explanation for a range of puzzles, including why we say

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Speaker 1: do you want to come in for a coffee? We

410
00:32:29,730 --> 00:32:34,410
Speaker 1: know it's about sex, but that's shared knowledge. Asking do

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00:32:34,490 --> 00:32:37,530
Speaker 1: you want to have sex would make it common knowledge,

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00:32:37,770 --> 00:32:43,410
Speaker 1: and that could make the situation far more awkward. Common knowledge,

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00:32:43,810 --> 00:32:49,490
Speaker 1: says Pinker, creates a distinctive cognitive state. It happens when

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00:32:49,610 --> 00:32:53,450
Speaker 1: shared knowledge gets out there in a way that's impossible

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Speaker 1: to ignore.

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Speaker 4: Dud tovirus ship pretty.

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Speaker 1: In book Arrest, Nikolai Choschescu begins his speech comrades a

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Speaker 1: warm revolutionary green. Everyone who's been bust in to be

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00:33:12,450 --> 00:33:16,770
Speaker 1: part of that crowd hates Chowsescu. They all know that

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00:33:16,970 --> 00:33:20,890
Speaker 1: everyone else like them hates chow Escu too, But that

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00:33:21,130 --> 00:33:25,690
Speaker 1: shared knowledge has never before been enough to spark collective

422
00:33:25,730 --> 00:33:30,050
Speaker 1: action to bring down the regime. At every previous rally

423
00:33:30,130 --> 00:33:33,730
Speaker 1: like this, for years and years, people have held up

424
00:33:33,770 --> 00:33:38,570
Speaker 1: their banners, applauded on command, glanced nervously at the guns

425
00:33:38,570 --> 00:33:42,810
Speaker 1: of the Securitat, and gone back home to complain to

426
00:33:42,890 --> 00:33:47,690
Speaker 1: each other in private. Today, in the shadow of the

427
00:33:47,730 --> 00:33:53,290
Speaker 1: protests and the killings in Timishwara, that changes a scream,

428
00:33:53,730 --> 00:34:01,490
Speaker 1: a shout, a chant, Timishwara, tim Mishwara, chow Chescu's pause,

429
00:34:02,250 --> 00:34:06,370
Speaker 1: his confused look. It's just like the loud speaker announcement

430
00:34:06,450 --> 00:34:11,810
Speaker 1: in the Butcher Baker game. Suddenly shared knowledge becomes common

431
00:34:11,890 --> 00:34:16,530
Speaker 1: knowledge out there, impossible to ignore. And just like in

432
00:34:16,570 --> 00:34:20,490
Speaker 1: the Butcher Baker game, the switch from shared to common

433
00:34:20,570 --> 00:34:28,370
Speaker 1: knowledge solves the coordination problem. Everyone spontaneously decides to act together.

434
00:34:29,450 --> 00:34:34,490
Speaker 1: In Timishwara, the crowd had grown gradually as people observed

435
00:34:34,530 --> 00:34:38,690
Speaker 1: others choosing to join. In Bucharest, the crowd was pre

436
00:34:38,810 --> 00:34:44,250
Speaker 1: gathered and its mood changed, like the flipping of a switch.

437
00:34:45,330 --> 00:34:49,490
Speaker 1: All around the city, people watching on the television saw

438
00:34:49,650 --> 00:34:54,050
Speaker 1: chowshesku pause. Then the screen went dead, the television director

439
00:34:54,530 --> 00:34:59,050
Speaker 1: choosing not to show what was happening. They understood all

440
00:34:59,130 --> 00:35:02,530
Speaker 1: at once. They left their houses and took to the streets.

441
00:35:03,130 --> 00:35:08,570
Speaker 1: An information cascade had started the revolution. Common knowledge was

442
00:35:08,610 --> 00:35:17,730
Speaker 1: about to finish the job inside the palace, with protesters

443
00:35:17,770 --> 00:35:23,050
Speaker 1: breaking in the Chaosescu's face of choice. Take the lift

444
00:35:23,170 --> 00:35:25,650
Speaker 1: down to the basement and try to make their escape

445
00:35:25,690 --> 00:35:28,450
Speaker 1: through a secret tunnel, or take the lift up to

446
00:35:28,490 --> 00:35:31,610
Speaker 1: the roof, where a helicopter awaits to whisk them away.

447
00:35:32,890 --> 00:35:36,890
Speaker 1: They choose the roof. Nikolai and Elina cram into the helicopter,

448
00:35:37,250 --> 00:35:40,450
Speaker 1: along with two bodyguards and two henchmen who are also

449
00:35:40,570 --> 00:35:44,690
Speaker 1: keen to get away. It's too many. The helicopter struggles

450
00:35:44,730 --> 00:35:50,730
Speaker 1: to lift. Where too, asks the pilot Snagov. The dictator says,

451
00:35:51,450 --> 00:35:55,690
Speaker 1: a country palace not far from Broucharest. The pilot lands

452
00:35:55,730 --> 00:36:00,050
Speaker 1: the helicopter. Nikolai goes inside to make phone calls. The

453
00:36:00,130 --> 00:36:06,130
Speaker 1: pilot turns on the radio news. The army has changed sides,

454
00:36:06,170 --> 00:36:10,290
Speaker 1: he hears, but some secure Tarte loyalists are still fighting

455
00:36:10,330 --> 00:36:15,010
Speaker 1: for the old dictator. The pilot calls his superior what

456
00:36:15,090 --> 00:36:19,610
Speaker 1: should he do? Figure it out for yourself, comes the reply.

457
00:36:21,130 --> 00:36:26,290
Speaker 1: Power it seems is fast draining away from the Chowshescus.

458
00:36:27,570 --> 00:36:30,690
Speaker 1: And here they are again, still with the bodyguards, but

459
00:36:30,810 --> 00:36:33,770
Speaker 1: the henchmen have decided to take their chances on their own.

460
00:36:34,810 --> 00:36:38,250
Speaker 1: Nikolai tells the pilot to fly to an air force base.

461
00:36:39,250 --> 00:36:42,410
Speaker 1: The pilot thinks, I'm not doing that. The army is

462
00:36:42,450 --> 00:36:45,210
Speaker 1: supporting the revolution. Now what if they shoot us down?

463
00:36:46,330 --> 00:36:50,770
Speaker 1: But then the bodyguards also have guns? What to do?

464
00:36:52,170 --> 00:36:56,490
Speaker 1: The pilot takes off, then makes up an excuse. Something's wrong.

465
00:36:56,770 --> 00:36:59,010
Speaker 1: We have to land here in a field by a

466
00:36:59,010 --> 00:37:03,890
Speaker 1: country road. Nikolai, Elena and one of the bodyguards walk

467
00:37:03,930 --> 00:37:08,450
Speaker 1: to the road and flag down a passing thatcha the

468
00:37:08,530 --> 00:37:13,210
Speaker 1: country dot to Nikolay decker. The doctor dumps the Chowchescu's

469
00:37:13,210 --> 00:37:17,050
Speaker 1: on Nikolai Petreshaw, who offloads them onto the director of

470
00:37:17,090 --> 00:37:23,170
Speaker 1: the Agricultural Institute. The director calls the police. They can

471
00:37:23,210 --> 00:37:25,650
Speaker 1: decide what to do with the old dictator and his wife.

472
00:37:26,530 --> 00:37:30,570
Speaker 1: Nikolai keeps looking at his watch and glancing impatiently at

473
00:37:30,570 --> 00:37:34,530
Speaker 1: the window, as if expecting the secure Tarte to rescue

474
00:37:34,570 --> 00:37:39,650
Speaker 1: him at any moment. The door opens and it's not

475
00:37:39,770 --> 00:37:44,770
Speaker 1: the securit Tate. It's two local policemen. They put Nikolai

476
00:37:44,890 --> 00:37:47,690
Speaker 1: and Elaina in the back of their police car and

477
00:37:47,770 --> 00:37:52,210
Speaker 1: take them to an army barracks. Nikolai seems to assume

478
00:37:52,330 --> 00:37:57,250
Speaker 1: he's still in charge. Well, what's the situation, he says

479
00:37:57,290 --> 00:37:59,530
Speaker 1: to the major at the barracks, Give me your report.

480
00:38:00,730 --> 00:38:05,450
Speaker 1: The major explains his instructions. I'll protect you from the mob,

481
00:38:05,810 --> 00:38:09,370
Speaker 1: he says, and wait for the new government in bookret

482
00:38:09,530 --> 00:38:13,490
Speaker 1: to tell me what to do. Nikolai and Elena spend

483
00:38:13,610 --> 00:38:17,930
Speaker 1: three nights in the barracks, complaining about the uncomfortable bed,

484
00:38:18,170 --> 00:38:21,650
Speaker 1: the smelly toilets, and the food. I can't eat this,

485
00:38:22,130 --> 00:38:27,370
Speaker 1: they say, when offered salami, bread and cheese. Its normal

486
00:38:27,610 --> 00:38:31,970
Speaker 1: army rations. Their guards explain this stuff's inedible. At home,

487
00:38:32,010 --> 00:38:35,370
Speaker 1: we have proper food. Then they try a different tack.

488
00:38:36,610 --> 00:38:39,570
Speaker 1: Take me out of here, says Nikolai. I could see

489
00:38:39,610 --> 00:38:46,370
Speaker 1: that you get one million dollars on Christmas Day, helicopters

490
00:38:46,490 --> 00:38:51,730
Speaker 1: arrived from brook Arrest with lawyers, judges, and a video recorder.

491
00:38:52,410 --> 00:38:55,610
Speaker 1: Some members of the old regime have moved quickly to

492
00:38:55,690 --> 00:39:00,770
Speaker 1: seize power, and they made the decision the Chowsescus must die.

493
00:39:02,090 --> 00:39:05,250
Speaker 1: They hastily put on a show trial, and it's all

494
00:39:05,290 --> 00:39:09,170
Speaker 1: a bit of a farce. The prosecutor accuses them of

495
00:39:09,250 --> 00:39:14,250
Speaker 1: killing sixty thousand people in Timishwara, which it turns out

496
00:39:14,450 --> 00:39:20,290
Speaker 1: wasn't actually true. He goes Elena, who wrote your scientific papers.

497
00:39:21,290 --> 00:39:24,850
Speaker 1: You can't talk to me like that, snaps Elena. You

498
00:39:24,930 --> 00:39:28,410
Speaker 1: smuggled money out of the country, says the prosecutor. Where's

499
00:39:28,450 --> 00:39:32,290
Speaker 1: your proof. The couple say you ate well while everyone

500
00:39:32,290 --> 00:39:37,650
Speaker 1: else had meager rations. Nikolai keeps repeating, I do not

501
00:39:37,890 --> 00:39:46,010
Speaker 1: recognize this tribunal. No matter. The judge gives his verdict guilty.

502
00:39:46,090 --> 00:39:48,970
Speaker 1: It's only as their hands are tied together behind their

503
00:39:49,010 --> 00:39:54,050
Speaker 1: backs that Nikolai and Elena seem finally to understand what's

504
00:39:54,090 --> 00:39:58,730
Speaker 1: about to happen. Elena snaps at a soldier, go fuck

505
00:39:58,770 --> 00:40:03,410
Speaker 1: your mother. They're led into the courtyard where the firing

506
00:40:03,450 --> 00:40:07,250
Speaker 1: squad jump the gun. By the time the cameraman's ready

507
00:40:08,290 --> 00:40:11,370
Speaker 1: it's all over. He can only film close ups of

508
00:40:11,410 --> 00:40:19,170
Speaker 1: the bodies. For a while, it feels like Catharsis, But

509
00:40:19,290 --> 00:40:23,010
Speaker 1: then the doubts set in. Was that really the best

510
00:40:23,010 --> 00:40:27,490
Speaker 1: way to do it? The couple's son Valentine, doesn't think so.

511
00:40:28,690 --> 00:40:33,010
Speaker 1: The execution was a political mistake. He says they should

512
00:40:33,050 --> 00:40:35,130
Speaker 1: have said that they were shot while trying to escape.

513
00:40:36,130 --> 00:40:39,930
Speaker 1: Maybe I can't help wishing that they'd had a proper trial,

514
00:40:40,570 --> 00:40:44,970
Speaker 1: with detailed charges and evidence. The best way to rebuke

515
00:40:45,010 --> 00:40:50,970
Speaker 1: a dictator is by upholding due process, that fundamental virtue

516
00:40:51,210 --> 00:40:57,050
Speaker 1: that dictators erode. But if you're tempted to feel sorry

517
00:40:57,130 --> 00:41:02,370
Speaker 1: for Nikolai and Elena, I suggest you visit their offensively

518
00:41:02,610 --> 00:41:09,490
Speaker 1: opulent palace in book Arrest, Your sympathy will vanish as

519
00:41:09,490 --> 00:41:19,290
Speaker 1: suddenly as their grip on power. This episode of Cautionary

520
00:41:19,290 --> 00:41:23,170
Speaker 1: Tales was produced in partnership with HBO and their new

521
00:41:23,250 --> 00:41:26,770
Speaker 1: series The Regime starring Kate Winslett. You can stream The

522
00:41:26,810 --> 00:41:30,530
Speaker 1: Regime now on Max, and you can find Cautionary Tales

523
00:41:30,570 --> 00:41:33,770
Speaker 1: with Me Tim Harford wherever you get your podcasts. This

524
00:41:33,810 --> 00:41:37,010
Speaker 1: episode relied on books about the Chowshescus by John Sweeney,

525
00:41:37,170 --> 00:41:40,610
Speaker 1: Mark Almond, and Edward Bare. For a full list of

526
00:41:40,610 --> 00:41:44,610
Speaker 1: our sources, see the show notes at Timharford dot com.

527
00:41:44,690 --> 00:41:48,130
Speaker 1: Up next, I'll be sitting down with Regime creator Will

528
00:41:48,170 --> 00:41:51,850
Speaker 1: Tracy to discuss the thinking and research behind the series.

529
00:42:04,090 --> 00:42:07,450
Speaker 1: When it came to writing HBO's new show, The Regime,

530
00:42:07,690 --> 00:42:11,010
Speaker 1: the series creator Will Try drew inspiration not just from

531
00:42:11,050 --> 00:42:13,970
Speaker 1: the Chaoushescus in Romania, but from real rulers around the

532
00:42:13,970 --> 00:42:17,570
Speaker 1: world and throughout history, from cruel autocrats such as Bashar

533
00:42:17,690 --> 00:42:22,330
Speaker 1: al Assad in Syria to democratically elected but unconventional populists

534
00:42:22,370 --> 00:42:26,450
Speaker 1: such as Georgia Maloney and Donald Trump. These governments offer

535
00:42:26,490 --> 00:42:29,090
Speaker 1: a plethora of cautionary tales, and I'm curious about the

536
00:42:29,130 --> 00:42:32,610
Speaker 1: research and thinking behind the show. And I'm delighted to

537
00:42:32,650 --> 00:42:36,530
Speaker 1: say that Siria's creator, Will Tracy joins me now Welcome

538
00:42:36,530 --> 00:42:41,370
Speaker 1: to Cautionary Tales. Will, Thanks Tim. One theme that struck

539
00:42:41,450 --> 00:42:44,370
Speaker 1: us as we were thinking about cautionary tales inspired by

540
00:42:44,370 --> 00:42:49,450
Speaker 1: the Regime was this idea of germaphobia. And Elena Vernham

541
00:42:49,770 --> 00:42:52,610
Speaker 1: is terrified of mold, and this idea that black mold

542
00:42:52,650 --> 00:42:54,370
Speaker 1: is going to get into her lungs. But as we

543
00:42:54,450 --> 00:42:57,450
Speaker 1: started to look into this, we realized this is not

544
00:42:57,570 --> 00:43:01,530
Speaker 1: just something you made up. No idiosyncratically, it turns out

545
00:43:01,530 --> 00:43:04,410
Speaker 1: there's something of a running theme with dictators and germaphobia.

546
00:43:04,930 --> 00:43:05,210
Speaker 2: Yeah.

547
00:43:05,330 --> 00:43:07,610
Speaker 3: I think for many of them it might stem from

548
00:43:07,610 --> 00:43:10,210
Speaker 3: this idea of purity. And I think, obviously with a

549
00:43:10,290 --> 00:43:15,130
Speaker 3: kind of a xenophobic or nationalistic state, that makes some sense. Right,

550
00:43:15,250 --> 00:43:18,730
Speaker 3: if you're constantly talking about the purity of culture, the

551
00:43:18,770 --> 00:43:22,810
Speaker 3: purity of thought, politics, and the purity of genetics, it

552
00:43:22,850 --> 00:43:26,010
Speaker 3: would make sense that you become quite paranoid about the

553
00:43:26,010 --> 00:43:29,970
Speaker 3: idea of contamination generally speaking. But you know, I also

554
00:43:30,050 --> 00:43:32,330
Speaker 3: think that, and this is certainly the case for the

555
00:43:32,450 --> 00:43:36,410
Speaker 3: character and the show, that the germophobia it's an excuse

556
00:43:36,450 --> 00:43:39,370
Speaker 3: to isolate from the mess of other people. The more

557
00:43:39,370 --> 00:43:43,450
Speaker 3: that you create this pretext of contamination, the fear of contamination,

558
00:43:43,530 --> 00:43:46,410
Speaker 3: the more you're able to kind of remove yourself from

559
00:43:46,450 --> 00:43:49,450
Speaker 3: people and stay within your bubble, the less that you'll

560
00:43:49,450 --> 00:43:54,170
Speaker 3: have to actually confront people and hear about whatever their

561
00:43:54,210 --> 00:43:58,250
Speaker 3: personal messes, whatever their problems are, problems which probably your

562
00:43:58,290 --> 00:44:01,810
Speaker 3: state that you've created is the culprit of and so

563
00:44:01,890 --> 00:44:04,810
Speaker 3: you can kind of remove yourself from that, you don't

564
00:44:04,810 --> 00:44:06,970
Speaker 3: really have to confront what's wrong with the lives of

565
00:44:06,970 --> 00:44:07,930
Speaker 3: the people you are leading.

566
00:44:09,130 --> 00:44:12,330
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's interesting because I had thought, in part, well,

567
00:44:12,370 --> 00:44:15,490
Speaker 1: maybe this is just about being famous. This is a

568
00:44:15,530 --> 00:44:19,570
Speaker 1: celebrity problem. As a celebrity, Yeah, everyone wants to get

569
00:44:19,570 --> 00:44:22,010
Speaker 1: close to you, everyone wants the selfie, everyone wants to

570
00:44:22,010 --> 00:44:25,330
Speaker 1: shake your hand, just to touch you. That just must

571
00:44:25,370 --> 00:44:28,530
Speaker 1: get quite wearing for someone who can never get away

572
00:44:28,570 --> 00:44:31,050
Speaker 1: from that. And you know, I thought of the germophobia

573
00:44:31,130 --> 00:44:34,530
Speaker 1: was possibly a little bit of an extreme response to that.

574
00:44:34,970 --> 00:44:37,930
Speaker 1: But yeah, there's the politics of it as well.

575
00:44:38,330 --> 00:44:41,610
Speaker 3: Yeah, well there's also it's an externalization of an internal

576
00:44:41,610 --> 00:44:45,530
Speaker 3: feeling that something might be wrong, that everything that I've

577
00:44:45,530 --> 00:44:48,890
Speaker 3: created might come crashing down, that this is all going

578
00:44:48,930 --> 00:44:51,010
Speaker 3: to end, that there's going to be reprisals, that there's

579
00:44:51,050 --> 00:44:53,250
Speaker 3: going to be the hague, that I might be hanged

580
00:44:53,250 --> 00:44:55,490
Speaker 3: in the town square, That maybe my ideas are wrong,

581
00:44:55,890 --> 00:44:58,850
Speaker 3: that maybe I've created something wrong, that there's some sort

582
00:44:58,850 --> 00:45:02,090
Speaker 3: of corruption or sickness that's in me that has created

583
00:45:02,090 --> 00:45:04,930
Speaker 3: this world that I live in. But if you externalize

584
00:45:04,930 --> 00:45:07,050
Speaker 3: all of those feelings and kind of repress them and

585
00:45:07,090 --> 00:45:10,210
Speaker 3: shut them out and convince yourself that well, no, there's

586
00:45:10,210 --> 00:45:13,010
Speaker 3: something in the walls that's trying to get me, or

587
00:45:13,050 --> 00:45:15,290
Speaker 3: there's something in the air, there's something on people's hands

588
00:45:15,370 --> 00:45:18,530
Speaker 3: or on surfaces, and it's that contamination that's trying to

589
00:45:18,570 --> 00:45:21,410
Speaker 3: destroy me. I think it probably becomes a bit easier

590
00:45:22,010 --> 00:45:25,930
Speaker 3: psychologically for these kinds of narcissistic personalities to go through

591
00:45:25,930 --> 00:45:28,250
Speaker 3: their days and the comfort that what they're doing is right.

592
00:45:29,170 --> 00:45:31,850
Speaker 1: Yes, and in the regime as well, it becomes a

593
00:45:31,890 --> 00:45:33,210
Speaker 1: metaphor for corruption.

594
00:45:33,530 --> 00:45:34,450
Speaker 2: Yes. Absolutely.

595
00:45:34,490 --> 00:45:37,690
Speaker 1: Herbert Zuback is telling Elena that the mold is really

596
00:45:37,770 --> 00:45:41,690
Speaker 1: the corruption of the people around her and her weakness exactly.

597
00:45:41,850 --> 00:45:46,170
Speaker 3: Yes, her microphobia is delusional. There is not black mold

598
00:45:46,210 --> 00:45:47,930
Speaker 3: in the walls. It's trying to kill her. That he

599
00:45:48,010 --> 00:45:53,850
Speaker 3: correctly diagnoses. But I think he's somewhat incorrectly diagnoses what

600
00:45:53,890 --> 00:45:57,890
Speaker 3: the underlying problem of the regime is. The underlying problem,

601
00:45:57,890 --> 00:46:00,690
Speaker 3: of course, is her and her narcissism, and I think

602
00:46:00,730 --> 00:46:03,170
Speaker 3: he likes to convince her that it is not. It's

603
00:46:03,210 --> 00:46:06,250
Speaker 3: the foreign bodies who threaten you, the foreign bodies of

604
00:46:06,370 --> 00:46:11,170
Speaker 3: NATO and this fifth column of corrupt ministers within your palace.

605
00:46:11,850 --> 00:46:15,930
Speaker 1: One of the things I enjoyed doing while watching the

606
00:46:16,010 --> 00:46:20,490
Speaker 1: regime was playing spot the Despot because of course, some

607
00:46:20,570 --> 00:46:22,490
Speaker 1: of it is it's from your imagination. Some of it

608
00:46:22,530 --> 00:46:25,650
Speaker 1: is purely fictional. Yeah, it's a mix, but some of

609
00:46:25,690 --> 00:46:28,370
Speaker 1: it is based on real dictators, that it is inspired

610
00:46:28,370 --> 00:46:31,090
Speaker 1: by the behavior of real dictators. And one I wished

611
00:46:31,130 --> 00:46:34,050
Speaker 1: I'd had more time to look into is the Emperor

612
00:46:34,090 --> 00:46:37,330
Speaker 1: of Ethiopia, highly Selassie. So tell me about him and

613
00:46:37,370 --> 00:46:39,330
Speaker 1: how he inspired some of the scenes.

614
00:46:40,130 --> 00:46:43,130
Speaker 3: I was reading a book by Kapachinski called The Emperor

615
00:46:43,130 --> 00:46:45,570
Speaker 3: about the last days of Higley Selassie. You know, it

616
00:46:45,650 --> 00:46:47,490
Speaker 3: kind of brings you through the end of his regime,

617
00:46:47,530 --> 00:46:49,570
Speaker 3: but it's also it's just kind of a look of

618
00:46:49,610 --> 00:46:52,930
Speaker 3: what his day to day life was like within that

619
00:46:52,970 --> 00:46:55,530
Speaker 3: bubble that he had created. When he would get up,

620
00:46:55,650 --> 00:46:57,490
Speaker 3: what do would eat for breakfast, how he would dress,

621
00:46:57,490 --> 00:47:01,170
Speaker 3: who address him. As the walls were closing in and

622
00:47:01,450 --> 00:47:05,050
Speaker 3: the country was sort of spiraling into famine and unrest,

623
00:47:05,210 --> 00:47:08,410
Speaker 3: there was still this kind of immaculate little jewel box

624
00:47:08,530 --> 00:47:11,410
Speaker 3: of a palace that he lived in, and it was

625
00:47:11,450 --> 00:47:14,130
Speaker 3: just a question amongst his servants and bureaucrats to what

626
00:47:14,210 --> 00:47:17,490
Speaker 3: extent he was aware, really aware of what was happening

627
00:47:17,490 --> 00:47:20,650
Speaker 3: outside that jewel box, Whether he knew or didn't know,

628
00:47:21,290 --> 00:47:24,650
Speaker 3: and how much he wished to conceal about that knowledge.

629
00:47:24,930 --> 00:47:27,650
Speaker 3: In the case of Selassie's quite different from other dictators,

630
00:47:27,650 --> 00:47:32,610
Speaker 3: and that he didn't react with extreme emotion or anger

631
00:47:32,730 --> 00:47:35,090
Speaker 3: or desperation as the wall started to close in.

632
00:47:35,210 --> 00:47:37,050
Speaker 2: He sort of maintained this.

633
00:47:37,010 --> 00:47:40,410
Speaker 3: Perfect facade of calm as long as he sort of

634
00:47:40,450 --> 00:47:44,530
Speaker 3: presented this veneer of kind of placid lack of concern

635
00:47:45,130 --> 00:47:47,770
Speaker 3: that would not only deny that there was a problem,

636
00:47:47,850 --> 00:47:50,010
Speaker 3: but also would kind of bolster his own sense of

637
00:47:50,050 --> 00:47:53,850
Speaker 3: himself as someone who was unshakable. That in the end

638
00:47:54,170 --> 00:47:58,570
Speaker 3: backfired in a way because that unshakeability and that seeming

639
00:47:58,650 --> 00:48:02,210
Speaker 3: calm and placidity just came off as cluelessness, completely out

640
00:48:02,250 --> 00:48:02,690
Speaker 3: of touch.

641
00:48:02,970 --> 00:48:05,690
Speaker 1: Yeah, am I right in thinking that the flower garden

642
00:48:05,770 --> 00:48:09,610
Speaker 1: scenes in the conservatory are inspired by Yeah, something he

643
00:48:09,690 --> 00:48:10,090
Speaker 1: used to do.

644
00:48:10,410 --> 00:48:13,290
Speaker 3: Yeah, he would sort of in his daily constitutional he

645
00:48:13,290 --> 00:48:16,570
Speaker 3: would sort of walk around the flower gardens. They had

646
00:48:16,570 --> 00:48:19,650
Speaker 3: a kind of zoo within the palace, and he would

647
00:48:19,850 --> 00:48:23,170
Speaker 3: feed meat to the lion, and he would water the flowers.

648
00:48:23,170 --> 00:48:25,930
Speaker 3: And while he was doing all of this, his palace

649
00:48:26,010 --> 00:48:30,530
Speaker 3: spymaster would give him the update on what's happening. Not

650
00:48:30,570 --> 00:48:34,730
Speaker 3: only what's happening outside in the countryside and also on

651
00:48:34,810 --> 00:48:38,090
Speaker 3: the world stage, but what's the palace intel, what are

652
00:48:38,090 --> 00:48:41,410
Speaker 3: they whispering, what are they saying? And the way Selassie

653
00:48:41,410 --> 00:48:44,410
Speaker 3: would handle this was quite similar to how the character

654
00:48:44,450 --> 00:48:46,770
Speaker 3: on the show handles it, which is to offer no

655
00:48:46,890 --> 00:48:51,530
Speaker 3: reply to just simply listen. If you only listen and

656
00:48:51,570 --> 00:48:54,570
Speaker 3: you offer no reply, you immediately are sort of baking

657
00:48:54,570 --> 00:48:55,930
Speaker 3: in a plausible deniability.

658
00:48:56,010 --> 00:48:56,250
Speaker 2: Later.

659
00:48:56,730 --> 00:49:01,250
Speaker 3: It's quite easy to reshape your thoughts and reactions to

660
00:49:01,850 --> 00:49:04,690
Speaker 3: intelligence you're receiving later if you say nothing while you're

661
00:49:04,690 --> 00:49:05,850
Speaker 3: receiving the intelligence.

662
00:49:06,290 --> 00:49:11,170
Speaker 1: Yes, they're very striking scenes. So you studied all sorts

663
00:49:11,170 --> 00:49:14,170
Speaker 1: of dictatorships while you were researching the show, and I'm

664
00:49:14,250 --> 00:49:19,410
Speaker 1: curious as to whether you think that fundamentally they're all alike,

665
00:49:19,930 --> 00:49:22,210
Speaker 1: or whether it's more accurate to say that every single

666
00:49:22,210 --> 00:49:23,050
Speaker 1: one is different.

667
00:49:23,770 --> 00:49:28,010
Speaker 3: I would say I have noticed maybe a few commonalities

668
00:49:28,130 --> 00:49:33,290
Speaker 3: amongst the leaders of these regimes, as opposed to commonalities

669
00:49:33,330 --> 00:49:37,650
Speaker 3: amongst the regimes themselves. One commonality that I have noticed

670
00:49:38,530 --> 00:49:42,530
Speaker 3: amongst many of these leaders is that when they first

671
00:49:42,690 --> 00:49:47,690
Speaker 3: arrive on the scene, there's something off about them. They

672
00:49:47,730 --> 00:49:50,810
Speaker 3: look a little funny, or they sound a little funny

673
00:49:51,330 --> 00:49:53,530
Speaker 3: in some way, they don't fit the mold of what

674
00:49:53,810 --> 00:49:56,210
Speaker 3: a head of state is supposed to look like. They

675
00:49:56,250 --> 00:49:58,410
Speaker 3: might even be a little bit laughable because they are

676
00:49:58,450 --> 00:50:01,050
Speaker 3: so new and so different. You know, in the media

677
00:50:01,090 --> 00:50:04,970
Speaker 3: or pundit class, or just generally amongst the general population,

678
00:50:05,530 --> 00:50:08,330
Speaker 3: the tendency is to laugh because it's so new and

679
00:50:08,330 --> 00:50:10,610
Speaker 3: so odd and so and you're not supposed to talk

680
00:50:10,690 --> 00:50:12,770
Speaker 3: like that or sound like that when you're in that position.

681
00:50:13,210 --> 00:50:15,810
Speaker 3: That's not the visual that we're used to seeing on

682
00:50:15,850 --> 00:50:18,970
Speaker 3: the screen when we think of a leader. What these

683
00:50:19,090 --> 00:50:23,170
Speaker 3: autocratic figures often do them is they take these idiosyncrasies

684
00:50:23,650 --> 00:50:26,290
Speaker 3: and they weaponize them, and they turn them into superpowers.

685
00:50:26,410 --> 00:50:28,130
Speaker 3: They turn them in the thing that makes them unique

686
00:50:28,130 --> 00:50:32,010
Speaker 3: and authentic, and they wry that feeling of uniqueness and

687
00:50:32,050 --> 00:50:36,610
Speaker 3: authenticity to power. But of course, you know what happens

688
00:50:36,730 --> 00:50:39,330
Speaker 3: is that they never forget they used to laugh at me.

689
00:50:39,890 --> 00:50:40,490
Speaker 2: That sort of.

690
00:50:40,450 --> 00:50:44,370
Speaker 3: Insecurity, I think is hardwired in the personality of a

691
00:50:44,370 --> 00:50:47,490
Speaker 3: lot of authoritarians. I was not respected, I wasn't taken

692
00:50:47,490 --> 00:50:50,650
Speaker 3: seriously by the establishment or by the elite. I'm not

693
00:50:50,730 --> 00:50:54,250
Speaker 3: taken seriously on the world stage, and I demand to

694
00:50:54,290 --> 00:50:57,050
Speaker 3: be taken seriously because I'm a serious figure. I'm not

695
00:50:57,130 --> 00:51:00,530
Speaker 3: a laughable figure. What happens, of course, in order to

696
00:51:01,170 --> 00:51:04,490
Speaker 3: get back at their alleged enemies and all the people

697
00:51:04,530 --> 00:51:07,250
Speaker 3: who laughed at them. The more power that they accrue,

698
00:51:07,290 --> 00:51:13,210
Speaker 3: they become increasing out of touch and thus increasingly somewhat ridiculous,

699
00:51:13,210 --> 00:51:16,490
Speaker 3: and so the problem just sort of compounds itself, and

700
00:51:16,970 --> 00:51:22,290
Speaker 3: I have noticed that being an issue amongst otherwise quite

701
00:51:23,330 --> 00:51:26,530
Speaker 3: dissimilar personalities who become authoritarians.

702
00:51:26,970 --> 00:51:31,010
Speaker 1: Did you also draw inspiration from some of the democratic

703
00:51:31,170 --> 00:51:36,250
Speaker 1: populists in Europe, people like Marine Lapenn Maloney in Italy?

704
00:51:36,690 --> 00:51:40,090
Speaker 1: To what extent are they inspirations for Elena Vernham?

705
00:51:40,570 --> 00:51:45,130
Speaker 3: Yeah, certainly. Le Penn was a big influence, a seemingly

706
00:51:45,250 --> 00:51:49,570
Speaker 3: mainstream figure who was actually smuggling in some quite insidious

707
00:51:49,730 --> 00:51:53,210
Speaker 3: and racist views from the Party of the Father, Right,

708
00:51:53,530 --> 00:51:56,810
Speaker 3: Marina Lapenn, what she's been able to do with alarming

709
00:51:56,850 --> 00:52:01,530
Speaker 3: success is sort of sanitize the party. You know, at heart,

710
00:52:02,130 --> 00:52:05,250
Speaker 3: it's not very different from anything her father was espousing,

711
00:52:05,330 --> 00:52:10,330
Speaker 3: but it sort of cleaned up and made more protogenic ortellogenic,

712
00:52:10,730 --> 00:52:13,170
Speaker 3: it sounds a little nicer. It helps in a way

713
00:52:13,770 --> 00:52:17,370
Speaker 3: that it's given. I think very consciously what she has

714
00:52:17,490 --> 00:52:20,210
Speaker 3: I think called herself a sort of woman's touch, right,

715
00:52:20,330 --> 00:52:23,610
Speaker 3: this feeling that it's coming from. It's a softer place, right.

716
00:52:23,690 --> 00:52:25,770
Speaker 3: It doesn't feel as hard as her father, right. It

717
00:52:25,770 --> 00:52:29,370
Speaker 3: feels in some ways gentler and more nurturing, more caring.

718
00:52:29,970 --> 00:52:32,410
Speaker 3: She's been able to use her status as a woman

719
00:52:32,450 --> 00:52:35,730
Speaker 3: in some ways in a very weaponized and cynical way.

720
00:52:36,210 --> 00:52:38,570
Speaker 3: And I always thought that would be more interesting for

721
00:52:38,650 --> 00:52:40,930
Speaker 3: this character of the authoritarian this show to be a.

722
00:52:40,850 --> 00:52:43,010
Speaker 2: Woman leader rather than a male leader.

723
00:52:43,010 --> 00:52:45,650
Speaker 3: I think we've seen that archetype of a strong man

724
00:52:45,730 --> 00:52:48,730
Speaker 3: so often, and you know, what would that be like

725
00:52:48,770 --> 00:52:51,930
Speaker 3: to see someone who uses the optics of femininity in

726
00:52:52,210 --> 00:52:55,010
Speaker 3: a really destructive way, but also in a way to

727
00:52:55,170 --> 00:52:58,490
Speaker 3: kind of win the approbation and investment of the West.

728
00:52:59,090 --> 00:53:02,410
Speaker 3: She knows this will look good, a strong woman leader

729
00:53:02,410 --> 00:53:05,210
Speaker 3: in the region, and ignore the fact that I'm actually

730
00:53:05,290 --> 00:53:07,890
Speaker 3: just as repressive as any male. I kind of have

731
00:53:08,050 --> 00:53:10,810
Speaker 3: the air of being new, modern progressive.

732
00:53:11,810 --> 00:53:15,450
Speaker 1: I wanted to ask about the parallels and differences between

733
00:53:15,450 --> 00:53:19,690
Speaker 1: dictatorships and democracies. Donald Trump was democratically elected and then

734
00:53:19,730 --> 00:53:23,810
Speaker 1: he was democratically rejected, but some of the techniques that

735
00:53:23,850 --> 00:53:26,450
Speaker 1: he uses to win power or to justify what he

736
00:53:26,490 --> 00:53:30,010
Speaker 1: does are the same techniques that dictators use. And is

737
00:53:30,050 --> 00:53:33,490
Speaker 1: it a bright line between dictatorship and democracy or is

738
00:53:33,490 --> 00:53:36,050
Speaker 1: there a certain leadership style that works in both.

739
00:53:36,730 --> 00:53:39,530
Speaker 3: Hmm, boy, that's a great question. I know the UK

740
00:53:39,690 --> 00:53:43,490
Speaker 3: certainly has its own problems politically, but I do sometimes

741
00:53:43,490 --> 00:53:49,130
Speaker 3: think about the usefulness of having a culture in which

742
00:53:49,490 --> 00:53:52,250
Speaker 3: all the focus and all the bright light, and all

743
00:53:52,290 --> 00:53:55,250
Speaker 3: of the blame and credit and the kind of heat

744
00:53:55,330 --> 00:53:59,490
Speaker 3: and celebrity of politics isn't all focused on this one person,

745
00:54:00,610 --> 00:54:03,330
Speaker 3: which very much feels like it is in America that

746
00:54:03,370 --> 00:54:06,450
Speaker 3: this person has to be everything to everybody.

747
00:54:06,650 --> 00:54:07,330
Speaker 2: We have to have this.

748
00:54:07,330 --> 00:54:11,210
Speaker 3: Feeling of this person being the leader who brings us

749
00:54:11,250 --> 00:54:15,570
Speaker 3: into the fray, rather than a leader of their party

750
00:54:16,290 --> 00:54:19,450
Speaker 3: or a leader of parliament, one sort of heater state functionary.

751
00:54:19,490 --> 00:54:23,250
Speaker 3: And then you have another kind of ceremonial, maybe monarchical

752
00:54:23,610 --> 00:54:26,370
Speaker 3: functionary who can kind of take some of that heat

753
00:54:26,650 --> 00:54:30,610
Speaker 3: away from the bureaucratic leader. I do think sometimes in

754
00:54:30,650 --> 00:54:36,770
Speaker 3: America you dovetail into the possibility of a demagogic figure

755
00:54:37,250 --> 00:54:39,650
Speaker 3: because we kind of place all of our tension on

756
00:54:39,690 --> 00:54:42,090
Speaker 3: this one person meaning everything to everybody.

757
00:54:42,890 --> 00:54:44,650
Speaker 1: One of the things we always try to do on

758
00:54:44,690 --> 00:54:49,010
Speaker 1: caution detales is to learn from the mistakes of the past.

759
00:54:49,690 --> 00:54:52,090
Speaker 1: Do you think that there was a mistake that dictators

760
00:54:52,530 --> 00:54:55,290
Speaker 1: make over and over again, some common theme.

761
00:54:55,330 --> 00:54:58,210
Speaker 3: You know? I think that sometimes it's an inability to

762
00:54:58,250 --> 00:55:01,810
Speaker 3: be able to tell a salami from a suckling pig,

763
00:55:01,850 --> 00:55:04,890
Speaker 3: if you will, sort of that inability to know how

764
00:55:04,890 --> 00:55:10,250
Speaker 3: to do these small, incremental terrible things in little steps,

765
00:55:10,770 --> 00:55:13,690
Speaker 3: and then going for the big brass ring once you

766
00:55:13,770 --> 00:55:16,370
Speaker 3: feel that your power is unchecked and that you can

767
00:55:16,410 --> 00:55:19,650
Speaker 3: do anything. Putin's big mistake is something that you will

768
00:55:19,650 --> 00:55:23,650
Speaker 3: see quite a bit, right, There's a similarity there between

769
00:55:24,250 --> 00:55:27,890
Speaker 3: what Putin did with Crimea versus Ukraine and what Hitler

770
00:55:27,930 --> 00:55:32,810
Speaker 3: did in Poland versus Russia. Right, it's inability to see

771
00:55:32,850 --> 00:55:34,810
Speaker 3: the task in front of you because you've had so

772
00:55:34,930 --> 00:55:38,250
Speaker 3: much success, or if you had so much appearance of success.

773
00:55:40,290 --> 00:55:42,610
Speaker 1: Do you regard the regime as a cautionary tale?

774
00:55:42,810 --> 00:55:44,930
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, in a sense, the regime has this

775
00:55:44,970 --> 00:55:47,730
Speaker 3: other layer on top where the cautionary tales not just

776
00:55:47,810 --> 00:55:51,930
Speaker 3: about how a seeming democracy can fall into autocracy, but

777
00:55:51,970 --> 00:55:56,250
Speaker 3: it's also how democracies around the world can abet and

778
00:55:56,330 --> 00:56:00,170
Speaker 3: aid autocracies around the world. Some of these states because

779
00:56:00,210 --> 00:56:04,370
Speaker 3: of their geographical placement, or because of a natural resource

780
00:56:04,410 --> 00:56:07,570
Speaker 3: they have, or because of their usefulness as a foil

781
00:56:07,650 --> 00:56:11,970
Speaker 3: against the common enemy. It becomes very easy for an

782
00:56:11,970 --> 00:56:16,410
Speaker 3: autocracy to become a client state of a so called

783
00:56:16,490 --> 00:56:19,970
Speaker 3: progressive Western democracy like the United States. You know, I

784
00:56:19,970 --> 00:56:22,690
Speaker 3: think we can all think of the examples. I suppose

785
00:56:22,730 --> 00:56:27,490
Speaker 3: the cautionary tale of how to avoid finding yourself in

786
00:56:27,570 --> 00:56:30,050
Speaker 3: a country like the country in the Regime, but also

787
00:56:30,930 --> 00:56:35,890
Speaker 3: how to question the way your own government interacts with

788
00:56:36,050 --> 00:56:38,690
Speaker 3: oppress of regimes around the world. So probably more in

789
00:56:38,730 --> 00:56:40,410
Speaker 3: that sense, it's a cautionary tale.

790
00:56:43,890 --> 00:56:47,730
Speaker 1: HBO's The Regime is available to stream now on Max

791
00:56:48,010 --> 00:56:50,210
Speaker 1: Will Tracy thank you so much for joining us.

792
00:56:50,250 --> 00:56:58,490
Speaker 2: Thank you, Tim.

793
00:56:58,650 --> 00:57:02,210
Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales is written by me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright.

794
00:57:02,690 --> 00:57:05,970
Speaker 1: It's produced by Alice Fines with support from Marilyn Rust.

795
00:57:06,450 --> 00:57:08,930
Speaker 1: The sound design and original music is the work of

796
00:57:09,130 --> 00:57:13,970
Speaker 1: Pascal Warriz. Sarah Nix edited the scripts. It features the

797
00:57:14,010 --> 00:57:18,770
Speaker 1: voice talents of Ben Crowe, Melanie Guttridge, Stella Harford, Jammas Saunders,

798
00:57:18,890 --> 00:57:22,610
Speaker 1: and Rufus Wright. The show also wouldn't have been possible

799
00:57:22,650 --> 00:57:26,730
Speaker 1: without the work of Jacob Weisberg, Ryan Dilly, Greta Cohne,

800
00:57:27,050 --> 00:57:32,370
Speaker 1: Vital Millard, John Schnaz, Eric's handler, Carrie Brody, and Christina Sullivan.

801
00:57:33,170 --> 00:57:37,810
Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales is a production of Pushkin Industries. It's recorded

802
00:57:37,810 --> 00:57:41,570
Speaker 1: at Wardoor Studios in London by Tom Berry. If you

803
00:57:41,770 --> 00:57:45,970
Speaker 1: like the show, please remember to share, rate and review,

804
00:57:46,490 --> 00:57:48,690
Speaker 1: tell your friends and if you want to hear the

805
00:57:48,690 --> 00:57:52,170
Speaker 1: show ad free, sign up for Pushkin Plus on the

806
00:57:52,210 --> 00:57:56,370
Speaker 1: show page in Apple Podcasts or at pushkin dot fm,

807
00:57:56,650 --> 00:58:18,450
Speaker 1: slash plus