Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I am Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Betting
Speaker 1: Pros and Fantasy Pros, back with you after a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks on hiatus to run through my favorite player
Speaker 1: props for week eleven. But first, if you want a
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Speaker 1: All right, here are my favorite player prop selections for
Speaker 1: week eleven. Let's start with Matt Ryan under two hundred
Speaker 1: and twenty eight point five passing yards, reclaiming his starting
Speaker 1: role after two week benching. Last week, Ryan through for
Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty two yards, but that was against
Speaker 1: the lowly Las Vegas Raiders pass defense, which is number
Speaker 1: thirty two, dead last in the league. In DVOA, the
Speaker 1: Colts did take a conservative offensive approach in that game
Speaker 1: under interim head coach Chef Saturday, running the ball on
Speaker 1: fifty one point seven percent of their offensive plays. I
Speaker 1: think they're conservative again this week against the Eagles for
Speaker 1: two reasons. One, the Eagles run defense has been slumping,
Speaker 1: and two, the Eagles pass defense is really fierce. They
Speaker 1: are allowing just two hundred point one passing yards per game,
Speaker 1: that's the third fewest in the league, and they have
Speaker 1: notched the fourth most sacks in the league twenty nine
Speaker 1: so far this year. So I think the Colts are
Speaker 1: conservative again. Run the ball a lot with Jonathan Taylor,
Speaker 1: and you know, the Eagles are allowing just five point
Speaker 1: zero pass yards per pass attempt, so really good pass defense.
Speaker 1: I don't think Matt Ryan gets to two hundred and
Speaker 1: twenty eight yards. Mac Jones under two hundred and three
Speaker 1: point five passing yards. Yeah, like a couple of these
Speaker 1: unders in passing yardage. The Jets pass defense has been
Speaker 1: a fearsome beast of lates. When we last saw Gangreen,
Speaker 1: they were limiting Josh Allen to two hundred and five
Speaker 1: passing yards in the jets twenty to seventeen upset of
Speaker 1: the Bills in Week nine. Then they went on buy.
Speaker 1: So they're coming in fresh against the Patriots and they
Speaker 1: did play the Patriots in Week eight, and in that
Speaker 1: game they held Mac Jones to twenty four thirty five
Speaker 1: passing for one hundred and ninety four yards. They've already
Speaker 1: held him under two hundred and three point five yards once.
Speaker 1: I think they're going to do it again. The Jets
Speaker 1: are giving up just five point eight yards per pass
Speaker 1: attempts and have the league's second lowest opponent passer rating.
Speaker 1: Jones is averaging just one hundred and ninety passing yards
Speaker 1: in his six starts this year, so he would have
Speaker 1: to get well above his season average to beat this number,
Speaker 1: and I don't think he's going to do that against
Speaker 1: one of the league's very best pass defenses. So Mac
Speaker 1: Jones under two hundred and three and a half yards,
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson over sixty one and a half rushing yards. So,
Speaker 1: for some reason, bye weeks seem to put a pep
Speaker 1: in Lamar Jackson's step. He has had four career games
Speaker 1: where he was coming off a bye, and in those
Speaker 1: four career games, he has run for a total of
Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five yards. Is rushing totals in
Speaker 1: those four games one hundred and nineteen sixty one sixty
Speaker 1: five and one hundred and twenty. So Jackson has cleared
Speaker 1: this number in five of nine games this season, and
Speaker 1: he's averaging seventy point six rushing yards per game this year,
Speaker 1: So look for him to run wild this week against
Speaker 1: the lowly Carolina Panthers. All right, I will I'll have
Speaker 1: five more prop bets for you in just a moment,
Speaker 1: but first I need to tell you about the Betting
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Speaker 1: pick hyphen Tracking. All right, Next up, Antonio Gibson over
Speaker 1: forty six and a half rushing yards. One of my
Speaker 1: favorite strategies for betting prop player props is to find
Speaker 1: a week defense and pick on it repeatedly, and that's
Speaker 1: what I'm doing with the Houston Texans run defense, which
Speaker 1: I have been picking on since last year. Houston had
Speaker 1: the worst run dye in the league in twenty twenty one,
Speaker 1: and it has gotten no better in twenty twenty two.
Speaker 1: The Texans are giving up one hundred and fifty six
Speaker 1: point two rushing yards per game we opposing running backs
Speaker 1: and five point four yards per carry to opposing running backs.
Speaker 1: Gibson does share work with rookie Brian Robinson, but Gibson
Speaker 1: has played fifty two point four percent of Washington's offensive
Speaker 1: snaps over the last two weeks. He's had double digit
Speaker 1: carries in both of those games. And if you give
Speaker 1: the explosive Gibson double digit carries against this Texans run defense,
Speaker 1: I am confident that he is going to run for
Speaker 1: more than forty six and a half rushing yards. So
Speaker 1: Gibson over forty six point five rushing yards. I also
Speaker 1: like David Montgomery over sixty one point five rushing yards.
Speaker 1: With Khalil Herbert going on injured reserve earlier this week,
Speaker 1: Montgomery is the UH he's the sole guy in the
Speaker 1: backfield pretty much. He has that backfield to himself except
Speaker 1: for acasional relief from sixth round rookie Trestan Ebner. But
Speaker 1: even with Herbert around, Montgomery had had snaphares of sixty
Speaker 1: six percent or higher in seven of nine games this year,
Speaker 1: and now with Herbert out like Montgomery could see snap
Speaker 1: shares in the eighty to eighty five percent range. Look
Speaker 1: for him to get at least fifteen carries this week
Speaker 1: against a so So Falcons run defense that's giving up
Speaker 1: ninety nine point eight rushing yards per game to opposing
Speaker 1: running backs. All right, Michael Pittman under sixty point five
Speaker 1: receiving yards and with Matt Ryan back at quarterback for
Speaker 1: the Colts last week, Pittman and nine targets against that
Speaker 1: bad Las Vegas Raiders pass defense and only had fifty
Speaker 1: three yards on seven receptions. So Ryan's m a is
Speaker 1: just to throw to the open guy, no matter who
Speaker 1: it is. That's how he's rolled for years. And you
Speaker 1: know now Paris Campbell has been coming on strong for
Speaker 1: the Colts. So the open guy in any given situation
Speaker 1: and could be Pittman, it could be Paris Campbell it
Speaker 1: could be rookie Alex Pierce, Alec Pierce, it could be
Speaker 1: one of the Colts tight ends. I don't think we
Speaker 1: can count on eight plus carries for Pittman week after week,
Speaker 1: and he is a brutal Week eleven matchup. He's going
Speaker 1: against the Eagles outside cornerback duo of Darius Slay and
Speaker 1: James Bradbury, which has been great all season except for
Speaker 1: last week when they lost to the Eagles or to
Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders their first loss of the year, and
Speaker 1: they gave up one hundred and twenty nine passing yards.
Speaker 1: It's terry McLaurin. So Slay and Bradbury have been terrific
Speaker 1: all year. They were not terrific in Week ten, and
Speaker 1: I think they're going to be ticked off about that
Speaker 1: and come out fired up and shut down this Colts
Speaker 1: passing game. So Michael Pittman under sixteen and a half
Speaker 1: receiving yards. I also like Brandon Cooks under fifty four
Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. In fact, this is probably
Speaker 1: my favorite player prop of Week eleven. Cooks has cleared
Speaker 1: this number in only two of his last seven games,
Speaker 1: and Cooks hasn't had more than four catches in a
Speaker 1: game since October second, back when it was still warm
Speaker 1: out here in the Upper Midwest. So yeah, Cooks has
Speaker 1: also been disgruntled. He was unhappy the Texans declined to
Speaker 1: deal him before the NFL trading deadline, and he's been
Speaker 1: dealing with hip and wrist injuries. So Cooks is going
Speaker 1: to be facing somewhat underrated Washington defense that just held
Speaker 1: the Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown to one catch for
Speaker 1: seven yards in that upset victory on Monday Night. So
Speaker 1: I think Cooks stays under fifty four and a half
Speaker 1: receiving yards and finally Greg Dolsich over thirty seven and
Speaker 1: a half receiving yards. The Broncos rookie tight end has
Speaker 1: cleared this number in three of the four games he's
Speaker 1: played this season. Last week was his first miss Dulchic.
Speaker 1: Dulcicic only had one catch for eleven yards, but man,
Speaker 1: he played an eighty nine percent snap share last week
Speaker 1: and he ran routes on forty of Russell Wilson's forty
Speaker 1: two dropbacks. So those numbers show just how involved Dulsic
Speaker 1: is in this Denver offense. You know, but the surface
Speaker 1: stats didn't cooperate with just the one catch last week.
Speaker 1: We're also probably going to see the Broncos without Jerry
Speaker 1: Judy this week due to an ankle injury, and I
Speaker 1: think that funnels a couple of extra targets in Dulcach's direction.
Speaker 1: I think he's going to clear thirty seven and a
Speaker 1: half yards pretty easily. All right, So let's recap the
Speaker 1: eight prop bets for this week. We've got Matt Ryan
Speaker 1: under two hundred and twenty eight point five passing yards.
Speaker 1: We've got Mac Jones under two hundred and three point
Speaker 1: five passing yards. Lamar Jackson is going to go over
Speaker 1: sixty one point five rushing yards, Antonio Gibson over forty
Speaker 1: six point five rushing yards, David Montgomery over sixty one
Speaker 1: point five rushing yards, Michael Pittman under sixty point five
Speaker 1: receiving yards, Brandon Cooks under fifty four point five receiving yards,
Speaker 1: and Greg Dlsic over thirty seven point five receiving yards.
Speaker 1: All right, folks, that is going to do it for
Speaker 1: me this week. I wish you the best of luck
Speaker 1: with your week eleven investments, and we will see you
Speaker 1: again next week. So long everyone,