WEBVTT - The 8 Best Player Prop Bets for Week 11 (Ep. 245)

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<v Speaker 1>Hey everyone, I am Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Betting

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<v Speaker 1>Pros and Fantasy Pros, back with you after a couple

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<v Speaker 1>of weeks on hiatus to run through my favorite player

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<v Speaker 1>props for week eleven. But first, if you want a

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<v Speaker 1>All right, here are my favorite player prop selections for

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<v Speaker 1>week eleven. Let's start with Matt Ryan under two hundred

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<v Speaker 1>and twenty eight point five passing yards, reclaiming his starting

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<v Speaker 1>role after two week benching. Last week, Ryan through for

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<v Speaker 1>two hundred and twenty two yards, but that was against

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<v Speaker 1>the lowly Las Vegas Raiders pass defense, which is number

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<v Speaker 1>thirty two, dead last in the league. In DVOA, the

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<v Speaker 1>Colts did take a conservative offensive approach in that game

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<v Speaker 1>under interim head coach Chef Saturday, running the ball on

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<v Speaker 1>fifty one point seven percent of their offensive plays. I

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<v Speaker 1>think they're conservative again this week against the Eagles for

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<v Speaker 1>two reasons. One, the Eagles run defense has been slumping,

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<v Speaker 1>and two, the Eagles pass defense is really fierce. They

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<v Speaker 1>are allowing just two hundred point one passing yards per game,

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<v Speaker 1>that's the third fewest in the league, and they have

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<v Speaker 1>notched the fourth most sacks in the league twenty nine

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<v Speaker 1>so far this year. So I think the Colts are

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<v Speaker 1>conservative again. Run the ball a lot with Jonathan Taylor,

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<v Speaker 1>and you know, the Eagles are allowing just five point

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<v Speaker 1>zero pass yards per pass attempt, so really good pass defense.

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<v Speaker 1>I don't think Matt Ryan gets to two hundred and

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<v Speaker 1>twenty eight yards. Mac Jones under two hundred and three

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<v Speaker 1>point five passing yards. Yeah, like a couple of these

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<v Speaker 1>unders in passing yardage. The Jets pass defense has been

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<v Speaker 1>a fearsome beast of lates. When we last saw Gangreen,

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<v Speaker 1>they were limiting Josh Allen to two hundred and five

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<v Speaker 1>passing yards in the jets twenty to seventeen upset of

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<v Speaker 1>the Bills in Week nine. Then they went on buy.

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<v Speaker 1>So they're coming in fresh against the Patriots and they

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<v Speaker 1>did play the Patriots in Week eight, and in that

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<v Speaker 1>game they held Mac Jones to twenty four thirty five

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<v Speaker 1>passing for one hundred and ninety four yards. They've already

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<v Speaker 1>held him under two hundred and three point five yards once.

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<v Speaker 1>I think they're going to do it again. The Jets

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<v Speaker 1>are giving up just five point eight yards per pass

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<v Speaker 1>attempts and have the league's second lowest opponent passer rating.

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<v Speaker 1>Jones is averaging just one hundred and ninety passing yards

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<v Speaker 1>in his six starts this year, so he would have

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<v Speaker 1>to get well above his season average to beat this number,

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<v Speaker 1>and I don't think he's going to do that against

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<v Speaker 1>one of the league's very best pass defenses. So Mac

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<v Speaker 1>Jones under two hundred and three and a half yards,

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<v Speaker 1>Lamar Jackson over sixty one and a half rushing yards. So,

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<v Speaker 1>for some reason, bye weeks seem to put a pep

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<v Speaker 1>in Lamar Jackson's step. He has had four career games

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<v Speaker 1>where he was coming off a bye, and in those

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<v Speaker 1>four career games, he has run for a total of

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<v Speaker 1>three hundred and sixty five yards. Is rushing totals in

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<v Speaker 1>those four games one hundred and nineteen sixty one sixty

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<v Speaker 1>five and one hundred and twenty. So Jackson has cleared

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<v Speaker 1>this number in five of nine games this season, and

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<v Speaker 1>he's averaging seventy point six rushing yards per game this year,

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<v Speaker 1>So look for him to run wild this week against

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<v Speaker 1>the lowly Carolina Panthers. All right, I will I'll have

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<v Speaker 1>five more prop bets for you in just a moment,

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<v Speaker 1>but first I need to tell you about the Betting

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<v Speaker 1>Pros Pick Tracker. Want to track all your wagers in

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<v Speaker 1>com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syncs up with your

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<v Speaker 1>and it gives you a live look at what the

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<v Speaker 1>public is doing, so you can use real time tracking

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<v Speaker 1>to determine which plays to make and which ones to fade.

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<v Speaker 1>Get on the leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by

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<v Speaker 1>pick hyphen Tracking. All right, Next up, Antonio Gibson over

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<v Speaker 1>forty six and a half rushing yards. One of my

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<v Speaker 1>favorite strategies for betting prop player props is to find

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<v Speaker 1>a week defense and pick on it repeatedly, and that's

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<v Speaker 1>what I'm doing with the Houston Texans run defense, which

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<v Speaker 1>I have been picking on since last year. Houston had

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<v Speaker 1>the worst run dye in the league in twenty twenty one,

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<v Speaker 1>and it has gotten no better in twenty twenty two.

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<v Speaker 1>The Texans are giving up one hundred and fifty six

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<v Speaker 1>point two rushing yards per game we opposing running backs

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<v Speaker 1>and five point four yards per carry to opposing running backs.

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<v Speaker 1>Gibson does share work with rookie Brian Robinson, but Gibson

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<v Speaker 1>has played fifty two point four percent of Washington's offensive

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<v Speaker 1>snaps over the last two weeks. He's had double digit

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<v Speaker 1>carries in both of those games. And if you give

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<v Speaker 1>the explosive Gibson double digit carries against this Texans run defense,

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<v Speaker 1>I am confident that he is going to run for

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<v Speaker 1>more than forty six and a half rushing yards. So

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<v Speaker 1>Gibson over forty six point five rushing yards. I also

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<v Speaker 1>like David Montgomery over sixty one point five rushing yards.

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<v Speaker 1>With Khalil Herbert going on injured reserve earlier this week,

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<v Speaker 1>Montgomery is the UH he's the sole guy in the

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<v Speaker 1>backfield pretty much. He has that backfield to himself except

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<v Speaker 1>for acasional relief from sixth round rookie Trestan Ebner. But

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<v Speaker 1>even with Herbert around, Montgomery had had snaphares of sixty

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<v Speaker 1>six percent or higher in seven of nine games this year,

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<v Speaker 1>and now with Herbert out like Montgomery could see snap

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<v Speaker 1>shares in the eighty to eighty five percent range. Look

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<v Speaker 1>for him to get at least fifteen carries this week

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<v Speaker 1>against a so So Falcons run defense that's giving up

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<v Speaker 1>ninety nine point eight rushing yards per game to opposing

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<v Speaker 1>running backs. All right, Michael Pittman under sixty point five

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<v Speaker 1>receiving yards and with Matt Ryan back at quarterback for

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<v Speaker 1>the Colts last week, Pittman and nine targets against that

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<v Speaker 1>bad Las Vegas Raiders pass defense and only had fifty

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<v Speaker 1>three yards on seven receptions. So Ryan's m a is

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<v Speaker 1>just to throw to the open guy, no matter who

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<v Speaker 1>it is. That's how he's rolled for years. And you

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<v Speaker 1>know now Paris Campbell has been coming on strong for

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<v Speaker 1>the Colts. So the open guy in any given situation

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<v Speaker 1>and could be Pittman, it could be Paris Campbell it

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<v Speaker 1>could be rookie Alex Pierce, Alec Pierce, it could be

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<v Speaker 1>one of the Colts tight ends. I don't think we

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<v Speaker 1>can count on eight plus carries for Pittman week after week,

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<v Speaker 1>and he is a brutal Week eleven matchup. He's going

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<v Speaker 1>against the Eagles outside cornerback duo of Darius Slay and

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<v Speaker 1>James Bradbury, which has been great all season except for

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<v Speaker 1>last week when they lost to the Eagles or to

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<v Speaker 1>the Washington Commanders their first loss of the year, and

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<v Speaker 1>they gave up one hundred and twenty nine passing yards.

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<v Speaker 1>It's terry McLaurin. So Slay and Bradbury have been terrific

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<v Speaker 1>all year. They were not terrific in Week ten, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think they're going to be ticked off about that

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<v Speaker 1>and come out fired up and shut down this Colts

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<v Speaker 1>passing game. So Michael Pittman under sixteen and a half

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<v Speaker 1>receiving yards. I also like Brandon Cooks under fifty four

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<v Speaker 1>and a half receiving yards. In fact, this is probably

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<v Speaker 1>my favorite player prop of Week eleven. Cooks has cleared

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<v Speaker 1>this number in only two of his last seven games,

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<v Speaker 1>and Cooks hasn't had more than four catches in a

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<v Speaker 1>game since October second, back when it was still warm

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<v Speaker 1>out here in the Upper Midwest. So yeah, Cooks has

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<v Speaker 1>also been disgruntled. He was unhappy the Texans declined to

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<v Speaker 1>deal him before the NFL trading deadline, and he's been

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<v Speaker 1>dealing with hip and wrist injuries. So Cooks is going

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<v Speaker 1>to be facing somewhat underrated Washington defense that just held

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<v Speaker 1>the Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown to one catch for

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<v Speaker 1>seven yards in that upset victory on Monday Night. So

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<v Speaker 1>I think Cooks stays under fifty four and a half

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<v Speaker 1>receiving yards and finally Greg Dolsich over thirty seven and

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<v Speaker 1>a half receiving yards. The Broncos rookie tight end has

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<v Speaker 1>cleared this number in three of the four games he's

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<v Speaker 1>played this season. Last week was his first miss Dulchic.

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<v Speaker 1>Dulcicic only had one catch for eleven yards, but man,

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<v Speaker 1>he played an eighty nine percent snap share last week

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<v Speaker 1>and he ran routes on forty of Russell Wilson's forty

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<v Speaker 1>two dropbacks. So those numbers show just how involved Dulsic

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<v Speaker 1>is in this Denver offense. You know, but the surface

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<v Speaker 1>stats didn't cooperate with just the one catch last week.

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<v Speaker 1>We're also probably going to see the Broncos without Jerry

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<v Speaker 1>Judy this week due to an ankle injury, and I

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<v Speaker 1>think that funnels a couple of extra targets in Dulcach's direction.

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<v Speaker 1>I think he's going to clear thirty seven and a

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<v Speaker 1>half yards pretty easily. All right, So let's recap the

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<v Speaker 1>eight prop bets for this week. We've got Matt Ryan

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<v Speaker 1>under two hundred and twenty eight point five passing yards.

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<v Speaker 1>We've got Mac Jones under two hundred and three point

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<v Speaker 1>five passing yards. Lamar Jackson is going to go over

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<v Speaker 1>sixty one point five rushing yards, Antonio Gibson over forty

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<v Speaker 1>six point five rushing yards, David Montgomery over sixty one

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<v Speaker 1>point five rushing yards, Michael Pittman under sixty point five

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<v Speaker 1>receiving yards, Brandon Cooks under fifty four point five receiving yards,

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<v Speaker 1>and Greg Dlsic over thirty seven point five receiving yards.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, folks, that is going to do it for

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<v Speaker 1>me this week. I wish you the best of luck

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<v Speaker 1>with your week eleven investments, and we will see you

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<v Speaker 1>again next week. So long everyone,