1 00:00:00,920 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: Hey everyone, I am Pat Fitzmorris, managing editor of Betting 2 00:00:04,480 --> 00:00:08,400 Speaker 1: Pros and Fantasy Pros, back with you after a couple 3 00:00:08,440 --> 00:00:11,680 Speaker 1: of weeks on hiatus to run through my favorite player 4 00:00:11,760 --> 00:00:15,600 Speaker 1: props for week eleven. But first, if you want a 5 00:00:15,680 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: chance to win a signed Josh Jacob's jersey courtesy of 6 00:00:19,760 --> 00:00:23,159 Speaker 1: our friends at Christine Auction, you need to subscribe to 7 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros YouTube channel right now, comment below on 8 00:00:26,880 --> 00:00:30,520 Speaker 1: this video and that's it. We will be announcing winner 9 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 1: right here on the channel, so make sure to turn 10 00:00:32,600 --> 00:00:36,280 Speaker 1: on those notifications to be alerted to what new episode's 11 00:00:36,320 --> 00:00:40,560 Speaker 1: are up and to know when to claim your prize. 12 00:00:40,920 --> 00:00:43,640 Speaker 1: All right, here are my favorite player prop selections for 13 00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: week eleven. Let's start with Matt Ryan under two hundred 14 00:00:49,240 --> 00:00:54,280 Speaker 1: and twenty eight point five passing yards, reclaiming his starting 15 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: role after two week benching. Last week, Ryan through for 16 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 1: two hundred and twenty two yards, but that was against 17 00:01:00,640 --> 00:01:05,280 Speaker 1: the lowly Las Vegas Raiders pass defense, which is number 18 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 1: thirty two, dead last in the league. In DVOA, the 19 00:01:09,360 --> 00:01:13,319 Speaker 1: Colts did take a conservative offensive approach in that game 20 00:01:13,480 --> 00:01:16,720 Speaker 1: under interim head coach Chef Saturday, running the ball on 21 00:01:16,800 --> 00:01:20,240 Speaker 1: fifty one point seven percent of their offensive plays. I 22 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:24,320 Speaker 1: think they're conservative again this week against the Eagles for 23 00:01:24,360 --> 00:01:28,000 Speaker 1: two reasons. One, the Eagles run defense has been slumping, 24 00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:31,880 Speaker 1: and two, the Eagles pass defense is really fierce. They 25 00:01:31,880 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: are allowing just two hundred point one passing yards per game, 26 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 1: that's the third fewest in the league, and they have 27 00:01:39,200 --> 00:01:42,560 Speaker 1: notched the fourth most sacks in the league twenty nine 28 00:01:42,640 --> 00:01:45,040 Speaker 1: so far this year. So I think the Colts are 29 00:01:45,040 --> 00:01:47,800 Speaker 1: conservative again. Run the ball a lot with Jonathan Taylor, 30 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: and you know, the Eagles are allowing just five point 31 00:01:51,840 --> 00:01:56,880 Speaker 1: zero pass yards per pass attempt, so really good pass defense. 32 00:01:56,920 --> 00:01:59,360 Speaker 1: I don't think Matt Ryan gets to two hundred and 33 00:01:59,440 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 1: twenty eight yards. Mac Jones under two hundred and three 34 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:07,440 Speaker 1: point five passing yards. Yeah, like a couple of these 35 00:02:07,560 --> 00:02:11,119 Speaker 1: unders in passing yardage. The Jets pass defense has been 36 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:16,040 Speaker 1: a fearsome beast of lates. When we last saw Gangreen, 37 00:02:16,240 --> 00:02:19,200 Speaker 1: they were limiting Josh Allen to two hundred and five 38 00:02:19,320 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 1: passing yards in the jets twenty to seventeen upset of 39 00:02:25,440 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 1: the Bills in Week nine. Then they went on buy. 40 00:02:28,160 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 1: So they're coming in fresh against the Patriots and they 41 00:02:32,160 --> 00:02:34,400 Speaker 1: did play the Patriots in Week eight, and in that 42 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,160 Speaker 1: game they held Mac Jones to twenty four thirty five 43 00:02:38,440 --> 00:02:41,760 Speaker 1: passing for one hundred and ninety four yards. They've already 44 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:44,920 Speaker 1: held him under two hundred and three point five yards once. 45 00:02:45,000 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 1: I think they're going to do it again. The Jets 46 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,320 Speaker 1: are giving up just five point eight yards per pass 47 00:02:49,360 --> 00:02:54,280 Speaker 1: attempts and have the league's second lowest opponent passer rating. 48 00:02:54,919 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: Jones is averaging just one hundred and ninety passing yards 49 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,440 Speaker 1: in his six starts this year, so he would have 50 00:03:00,520 --> 00:03:05,000 Speaker 1: to get well above his season average to beat this number, 51 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,239 Speaker 1: and I don't think he's going to do that against 52 00:03:07,320 --> 00:03:11,000 Speaker 1: one of the league's very best pass defenses. So Mac 53 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:13,320 Speaker 1: Jones under two hundred and three and a half yards, 54 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:19,440 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson over sixty one and a half rushing yards. So, 55 00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,519 Speaker 1: for some reason, bye weeks seem to put a pep 56 00:03:23,600 --> 00:03:27,799 Speaker 1: in Lamar Jackson's step. He has had four career games 57 00:03:27,840 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 1: where he was coming off a bye, and in those 58 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:32,920 Speaker 1: four career games, he has run for a total of 59 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:37,320 Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five yards. Is rushing totals in 60 00:03:37,360 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: those four games one hundred and nineteen sixty one sixty 61 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:46,920 Speaker 1: five and one hundred and twenty. So Jackson has cleared 62 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:49,800 Speaker 1: this number in five of nine games this season, and 63 00:03:49,880 --> 00:03:53,680 Speaker 1: he's averaging seventy point six rushing yards per game this year, 64 00:03:53,720 --> 00:03:56,760 Speaker 1: So look for him to run wild this week against 65 00:03:56,760 --> 00:04:00,320 Speaker 1: the lowly Carolina Panthers. All right, I will I'll have 66 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: five more prop bets for you in just a moment, 67 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:05,400 Speaker 1: but first I need to tell you about the Betting 68 00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:09,880 Speaker 1: Pros Pick Tracker. Want to track all your wagers in 69 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 1: one place, check out the Betting Prospicktracker at bettingpros dot 70 00:04:14,000 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: com slash pick hyphen tracking. It syncs up with your 71 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:22,560 Speaker 1: sportsbook to tally which picks hit and which picks miss, 72 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:24,520 Speaker 1: and it gives you a live look at what the 73 00:04:24,520 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 1: public is doing, so you can use real time tracking 74 00:04:26,920 --> 00:04:30,479 Speaker 1: to determine which plays to make and which ones to fade. 75 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:33,480 Speaker 1: Get on the leaderboard and quickly become a sharp by 76 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,680 Speaker 1: using the Betting Pros Picktracker and everything we have to 77 00:04:36,760 --> 00:04:41,200 Speaker 1: offer all the free advice at bettingpros dot com slash 78 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: pick hyphen Tracking. All right, Next up, Antonio Gibson over 79 00:04:47,120 --> 00:04:49,919 Speaker 1: forty six and a half rushing yards. One of my 80 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:53,640 Speaker 1: favorite strategies for betting prop player props is to find 81 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:56,719 Speaker 1: a week defense and pick on it repeatedly, and that's 82 00:04:56,760 --> 00:04:59,719 Speaker 1: what I'm doing with the Houston Texans run defense, which 83 00:04:59,760 --> 00:05:02,880 Speaker 1: I have been picking on since last year. Houston had 84 00:05:02,920 --> 00:05:05,320 Speaker 1: the worst run dye in the league in twenty twenty one, 85 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:07,640 Speaker 1: and it has gotten no better in twenty twenty two. 86 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: The Texans are giving up one hundred and fifty six 87 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:13,839 Speaker 1: point two rushing yards per game we opposing running backs 88 00:05:14,120 --> 00:05:17,159 Speaker 1: and five point four yards per carry to opposing running backs. 89 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:21,440 Speaker 1: Gibson does share work with rookie Brian Robinson, but Gibson 90 00:05:21,480 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 1: has played fifty two point four percent of Washington's offensive 91 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,440 Speaker 1: snaps over the last two weeks. He's had double digit 92 00:05:28,520 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 1: carries in both of those games. And if you give 93 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 1: the explosive Gibson double digit carries against this Texans run defense, 94 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,400 Speaker 1: I am confident that he is going to run for 95 00:05:37,440 --> 00:05:39,680 Speaker 1: more than forty six and a half rushing yards. So 96 00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:44,320 Speaker 1: Gibson over forty six point five rushing yards. I also 97 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:48,560 Speaker 1: like David Montgomery over sixty one point five rushing yards. 98 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:52,360 Speaker 1: With Khalil Herbert going on injured reserve earlier this week, 99 00:05:52,520 --> 00:05:56,240 Speaker 1: Montgomery is the UH he's the sole guy in the 100 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:59,400 Speaker 1: backfield pretty much. He has that backfield to himself except 101 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:05,039 Speaker 1: for acasional relief from sixth round rookie Trestan Ebner. But 102 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,719 Speaker 1: even with Herbert around, Montgomery had had snaphares of sixty 103 00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:12,080 Speaker 1: six percent or higher in seven of nine games this year, 104 00:06:12,760 --> 00:06:16,040 Speaker 1: and now with Herbert out like Montgomery could see snap 105 00:06:16,120 --> 00:06:19,160 Speaker 1: shares in the eighty to eighty five percent range. Look 106 00:06:19,240 --> 00:06:21,560 Speaker 1: for him to get at least fifteen carries this week 107 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:25,520 Speaker 1: against a so So Falcons run defense that's giving up 108 00:06:25,560 --> 00:06:28,760 Speaker 1: ninety nine point eight rushing yards per game to opposing 109 00:06:28,839 --> 00:06:33,240 Speaker 1: running backs. All right, Michael Pittman under sixty point five 110 00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,280 Speaker 1: receiving yards and with Matt Ryan back at quarterback for 111 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,800 Speaker 1: the Colts last week, Pittman and nine targets against that 112 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 1: bad Las Vegas Raiders pass defense and only had fifty 113 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: three yards on seven receptions. So Ryan's m a is 114 00:06:48,920 --> 00:06:50,960 Speaker 1: just to throw to the open guy, no matter who 115 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:54,320 Speaker 1: it is. That's how he's rolled for years. And you 116 00:06:54,320 --> 00:06:56,839 Speaker 1: know now Paris Campbell has been coming on strong for 117 00:06:56,920 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 1: the Colts. So the open guy in any given situation 118 00:07:00,080 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 1: and could be Pittman, it could be Paris Campbell it 119 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: could be rookie Alex Pierce, Alec Pierce, it could be 120 00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:08,960 Speaker 1: one of the Colts tight ends. I don't think we 121 00:07:09,000 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 1: can count on eight plus carries for Pittman week after week, 122 00:07:13,360 --> 00:07:15,920 Speaker 1: and he is a brutal Week eleven matchup. He's going 123 00:07:15,960 --> 00:07:19,560 Speaker 1: against the Eagles outside cornerback duo of Darius Slay and 124 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:24,160 Speaker 1: James Bradbury, which has been great all season except for 125 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:29,600 Speaker 1: last week when they lost to the Eagles or to 126 00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:32,320 Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders their first loss of the year, and 127 00:07:32,360 --> 00:07:34,600 Speaker 1: they gave up one hundred and twenty nine passing yards. 128 00:07:34,960 --> 00:07:39,040 Speaker 1: It's terry McLaurin. So Slay and Bradbury have been terrific 129 00:07:39,080 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: all year. They were not terrific in Week ten, and 130 00:07:42,280 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: I think they're going to be ticked off about that 131 00:07:44,400 --> 00:07:47,360 Speaker 1: and come out fired up and shut down this Colts 132 00:07:47,400 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: passing game. So Michael Pittman under sixteen and a half 133 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:55,480 Speaker 1: receiving yards. I also like Brandon Cooks under fifty four 134 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: and a half receiving yards. In fact, this is probably 135 00:07:58,080 --> 00:08:02,200 Speaker 1: my favorite player prop of Week eleven. Cooks has cleared 136 00:08:02,200 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 1: this number in only two of his last seven games, 137 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,240 Speaker 1: and Cooks hasn't had more than four catches in a 138 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: game since October second, back when it was still warm 139 00:08:11,960 --> 00:08:16,240 Speaker 1: out here in the Upper Midwest. So yeah, Cooks has 140 00:08:16,240 --> 00:08:20,400 Speaker 1: also been disgruntled. He was unhappy the Texans declined to 141 00:08:20,840 --> 00:08:23,920 Speaker 1: deal him before the NFL trading deadline, and he's been 142 00:08:23,960 --> 00:08:29,200 Speaker 1: dealing with hip and wrist injuries. So Cooks is going 143 00:08:29,240 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 1: to be facing somewhat underrated Washington defense that just held 144 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 1: the Eagles wide receiver AJ Brown to one catch for 145 00:08:37,760 --> 00:08:41,280 Speaker 1: seven yards in that upset victory on Monday Night. So 146 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:44,120 Speaker 1: I think Cooks stays under fifty four and a half 147 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: receiving yards and finally Greg Dolsich over thirty seven and 148 00:08:49,080 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: a half receiving yards. The Broncos rookie tight end has 149 00:08:52,800 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 1: cleared this number in three of the four games he's 150 00:08:55,280 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 1: played this season. Last week was his first miss Dulchic. 151 00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: Dulcicic only had one catch for eleven yards, but man, 152 00:09:04,960 --> 00:09:08,320 Speaker 1: he played an eighty nine percent snap share last week 153 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:12,880 Speaker 1: and he ran routes on forty of Russell Wilson's forty 154 00:09:12,920 --> 00:09:17,280 Speaker 1: two dropbacks. So those numbers show just how involved Dulsic 155 00:09:17,559 --> 00:09:21,679 Speaker 1: is in this Denver offense. You know, but the surface 156 00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:25,000 Speaker 1: stats didn't cooperate with just the one catch last week. 157 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: We're also probably going to see the Broncos without Jerry 158 00:09:28,960 --> 00:09:31,400 Speaker 1: Judy this week due to an ankle injury, and I 159 00:09:31,440 --> 00:09:34,959 Speaker 1: think that funnels a couple of extra targets in Dulcach's direction. 160 00:09:35,200 --> 00:09:36,959 Speaker 1: I think he's going to clear thirty seven and a 161 00:09:37,000 --> 00:09:41,400 Speaker 1: half yards pretty easily. All right, So let's recap the 162 00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,199 Speaker 1: eight prop bets for this week. We've got Matt Ryan 163 00:09:44,360 --> 00:09:47,319 Speaker 1: under two hundred and twenty eight point five passing yards. 164 00:09:47,640 --> 00:09:50,760 Speaker 1: We've got Mac Jones under two hundred and three point 165 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: five passing yards. Lamar Jackson is going to go over 166 00:09:54,920 --> 00:09:59,840 Speaker 1: sixty one point five rushing yards, Antonio Gibson over forty 167 00:10:00,120 --> 00:10:04,640 Speaker 1: six point five rushing yards, David Montgomery over sixty one 168 00:10:04,679 --> 00:10:08,640 Speaker 1: point five rushing yards, Michael Pittman under sixty point five 169 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:13,160 Speaker 1: receiving yards, Brandon Cooks under fifty four point five receiving yards, 170 00:10:13,160 --> 00:10:17,640 Speaker 1: and Greg Dlsic over thirty seven point five receiving yards. 171 00:10:18,080 --> 00:10:20,000 Speaker 1: All right, folks, that is going to do it for 172 00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:22,520 Speaker 1: me this week. I wish you the best of luck 173 00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:25,199 Speaker 1: with your week eleven investments, and we will see you 174 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:38,640 Speaker 1: again next week. So long everyone,