1 00:00:01,080 --> 00:00:04,480 Speaker 1: Welcome to Sharper Square, presented by hard Rock bet We 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:06,880 Speaker 1: are part of the Volume podcast network. 3 00:00:06,960 --> 00:00:08,520 Speaker 2: This is the betting show. 4 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:10,959 Speaker 1: That makes the squares sharper and makes the wise guys 5 00:00:11,280 --> 00:00:12,160 Speaker 1: pay attention. 6 00:00:12,440 --> 00:00:13,520 Speaker 2: I am Chad Mellman. 7 00:00:13,600 --> 00:00:17,200 Speaker 1: I am joined as always by my bff, my companion, 8 00:00:17,280 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: my compadre professional better Simon Hunter Ello Simon Chad. 9 00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:26,079 Speaker 3: We made the game day. 10 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,240 Speaker 4: I love these type of moments because it's it's the 11 00:00:29,240 --> 00:00:32,479 Speaker 4: moment before the moment. Will we have the historical moments 12 00:00:32,479 --> 00:00:35,760 Speaker 4: that we remember forever. You know, the catch, the helmet catch, 13 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:40,040 Speaker 4: that's right, yeah, the you know it's it's Honestly, I 14 00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,040 Speaker 4: was I was joking the buddy. If the Bears had 15 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,199 Speaker 4: won and obviously gone through, what would we have called. 16 00:00:46,040 --> 00:00:47,000 Speaker 3: Caleb Williams play? 17 00:00:47,640 --> 00:00:50,080 Speaker 4: I said the throw because I'm trying to think of 18 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:51,360 Speaker 4: is there anything else even comparable? 19 00:00:51,479 --> 00:00:54,160 Speaker 3: When you say did you see that Caleb throw? 20 00:00:54,200 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 4: For now, for the next couple of years, I feel 21 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,640 Speaker 4: like everyone's going to mention that fourth down play. The 22 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 4: throw might stick, but obviously won't move on because it 23 00:01:02,360 --> 00:01:04,720 Speaker 4: didn't lead to anything. But it's like the Macrowell exception. 24 00:01:05,240 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 4: All these amazing names we have for football. I know 25 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:11,080 Speaker 4: that Caleb plays so far these playoffs, that's only one 26 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 4: I got to think of that was like a historical 27 00:01:12,880 --> 00:01:14,680 Speaker 4: name that play tip Simon. 28 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 1: As an editor, I would make one adjustment to what 29 00:01:18,680 --> 00:01:21,319 Speaker 1: you're calling it, which I think is brilliant. I would 30 00:01:21,319 --> 00:01:26,679 Speaker 1: call it that throw, that throw, that throw that Caleb throw. 31 00:01:27,280 --> 00:01:29,560 Speaker 2: Well, unfortunately we don't get the Bears. 32 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: We get an aging quarterback off of an overtime game 33 00:01:36,080 --> 00:01:40,720 Speaker 1: and short rest against a quarterback who is taking painkilling 34 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:45,120 Speaker 1: shots for an oblique. We get a backup quarterback against 35 00:01:45,200 --> 00:01:48,680 Speaker 1: a second year quarterback who is trying to take his 36 00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:51,640 Speaker 1: team to the super Bowl and revive an entire community 37 00:01:51,680 --> 00:01:55,400 Speaker 1: here in New England. It is time to get into it, 38 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 1: my friend. It's the check Conference Championship version of the 39 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,600 Speaker 1: semi strip down in the room Sharper Square, in which 40 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:04,200 Speaker 1: Simon and I are gonna nail down the five picks. 41 00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:07,200 Speaker 1: A lot of injury talk, a lot of line move talk. 42 00:02:08,440 --> 00:02:10,920 Speaker 1: If you're in the contest, you can track us at 43 00:02:11,000 --> 00:02:13,359 Speaker 1: chat at Simon Chad Simon BFFs. 44 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 2: Are you ready, Simon, Let's go, buddy? 45 00:02:15,880 --> 00:02:16,239 Speaker 3: All right? 46 00:02:16,800 --> 00:02:17,960 Speaker 2: So this first game is. 47 00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: Just fascinating, right the New England Patriots visiting the Denver Broncos. 48 00:02:22,400 --> 00:02:23,399 Speaker 2: Huge line move. 49 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,359 Speaker 1: The line is now three and a half four at 50 00:02:26,360 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: hard Rock, but three and a half and a lot 51 00:02:28,000 --> 00:02:28,760 Speaker 1: of other places. 52 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,919 Speaker 2: Total is forty three and a half. 53 00:02:33,080 --> 00:02:36,840 Speaker 1: Simon says was Denver at plus five and a half. 54 00:02:37,560 --> 00:02:39,320 Speaker 1: The line move has been so big that I got 55 00:02:39,360 --> 00:02:41,519 Speaker 1: an alert from ESPN yesterday that it is down to 56 00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:44,840 Speaker 1: three and a half at most places. Also, the total 57 00:02:44,880 --> 00:02:48,079 Speaker 1: has come up from forty and a half. Huge, huge 58 00:02:48,120 --> 00:02:51,080 Speaker 1: move on the Broncos. Professional was just buying in on 59 00:02:51,160 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: Jared's Didham. Basically they're realizing, wait a second, there's just 60 00:02:56,000 --> 00:02:58,639 Speaker 1: not a big enough difference between Bonicks and Jared's Didham. 61 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: Put the Broncos into our play in the contest because 62 00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:07,480 Speaker 1: they were at four and a half in the contest. 63 00:03:07,520 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: So we're invested. We're just invested in the Broncos in 64 00:03:11,840 --> 00:03:12,239 Speaker 1: every way. 65 00:03:13,600 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's nice. 66 00:03:14,880 --> 00:03:16,960 Speaker 4: Obviously we didn't went on Pittsburgh in the first round, 67 00:03:16,960 --> 00:03:19,600 Speaker 4: but you know, gave out Pittsburgh three and a half, 68 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 4: only time you could ever got that number. Last week, 69 00:03:21,960 --> 00:03:23,520 Speaker 4: gave out Denver plus one and a half, only time 70 00:03:23,560 --> 00:03:25,440 Speaker 4: you could ever get that number. In this week, Denver 71 00:03:25,480 --> 00:03:28,000 Speaker 4: plus five and a half, so you know, hopefully we 72 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:30,560 Speaker 4: can get another win here on Denver at a good number. 73 00:03:30,600 --> 00:03:32,960 Speaker 4: But this is this is what you dream of when 74 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:34,520 Speaker 4: you make those type of bets. Right, it went really 75 00:03:34,520 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 4: heavy on Denver. Thank god it didn't go up the 76 00:03:37,760 --> 00:03:39,720 Speaker 4: other way, right, that's always scary when it goes up 77 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 4: to the six and six and a half. The other 78 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:44,000 Speaker 4: way it went complete opposite. Right now it's down to 79 00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 4: three and a half four, which is exactly what you predicted. 80 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 4: And we hope to see and I think people are 81 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:51,000 Speaker 4: like us, right, they're starting to see them match up. 82 00:03:52,080 --> 00:03:53,440 Speaker 3: Isn't that bad for Denver? 83 00:03:53,760 --> 00:03:56,320 Speaker 4: As much as they might struggle the quarterback position here, right, 84 00:03:56,360 --> 00:03:58,480 Speaker 4: the rest of the team is so complete you expected 85 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 4: to carry them and just for one game the guys 86 00:04:01,200 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 4: round around the quarterback here. It feels like the type 87 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 4: of game where it could easily happen. And I'm happy 88 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 4: to see that was a totally off. And I said 89 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:10,520 Speaker 4: this number probably should be three, three and a half. 90 00:04:11,000 --> 00:04:13,400 Speaker 4: The books have finally come around their senses and reflected that, 91 00:04:13,480 --> 00:04:15,480 Speaker 4: and even our futures we talked, you could have got 92 00:04:15,520 --> 00:04:18,400 Speaker 4: Denver thirteen to one, fourteen to one. It's basically ten 93 00:04:18,440 --> 00:04:21,479 Speaker 4: to one out every book, right, Yeah, so the pros 94 00:04:21,520 --> 00:04:23,440 Speaker 4: have kind of watched the tape on Sidhem this week. 95 00:04:23,520 --> 00:04:26,760 Speaker 4: Steady is what everyone's calling them. It's come way down 96 00:04:26,839 --> 00:04:30,400 Speaker 4: and that's that's the dream for us, right, So I 97 00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:33,039 Speaker 4: won't bore people with all the numbers once again. I mean, 98 00:04:33,160 --> 00:04:36,919 Speaker 4: since nineteen fifties, dogs home dogs of four points or 99 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 4: more at home, since nineteen fifties people nine to zero 100 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 4: against the spread, So hoping that continues. First, Chad, we 101 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:46,640 Speaker 4: love the number here and we're just really into Patriots. 102 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:49,280 Speaker 4: They are a good team. They do deserve to be here. 103 00:04:49,040 --> 00:04:51,359 Speaker 4: They're a tabit overrated by the general public. And the 104 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:54,120 Speaker 4: line reflected that the number one up too high, too quick. 105 00:04:54,920 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 4: The books, just like I am, are very happy in 106 00:04:57,360 --> 00:04:57,880 Speaker 4: their position. 107 00:04:57,960 --> 00:04:58,159 Speaker 3: Right. 108 00:04:58,200 --> 00:05:00,400 Speaker 4: Can we lose this bed? Of course, it's it's a 109 00:05:00,400 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 4: coin flip. You never know what can happen, right, it's sports. 110 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:06,680 Speaker 4: But I feel like our early read was right here 111 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:08,760 Speaker 4: with back in this Denver team and just the fact 112 00:05:08,760 --> 00:05:11,080 Speaker 4: that this is a good match for them at home. 113 00:05:11,560 --> 00:05:14,560 Speaker 4: You know Sean Payton and once again everyone seen these 114 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:17,640 Speaker 4: numbers with backup quarterbacks. He's one of the best coaches 115 00:05:17,640 --> 00:05:20,239 Speaker 4: ever against the spread. Right, He's thirteen and six against 116 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,400 Speaker 4: the spread with a backup quarterback. So we remember the 117 00:05:23,480 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 4: days when Teddy Bridgewater came in after Drew Brees got 118 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 4: banged up and played really well and kept covering. And 119 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:30,719 Speaker 4: it's just the kind of them here with Sean Payton. 120 00:05:30,720 --> 00:05:32,599 Speaker 4: He gets the guys a rally around the quarterback to play. 121 00:05:32,720 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 4: So unfortunately for us, chat I did bank on Franklin 122 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:38,160 Speaker 4: being back. I don't know if he'll play. He's been 123 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 4: limited all week with the hamstring. The big one that 124 00:05:40,760 --> 00:05:42,839 Speaker 4: hurt to me is the Dobbins. I really thought Dobbin 125 00:05:42,920 --> 00:05:44,440 Speaker 4: was gonna make a run at it the running back 126 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:47,360 Speaker 4: for Denver, which again not the biggest day. Like you said, 127 00:05:47,520 --> 00:05:48,640 Speaker 4: it wasn't like he was going to play a ton 128 00:05:48,640 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 4: of snaps anyway. To me, it was just a big 129 00:05:50,760 --> 00:05:52,640 Speaker 4: deal because he is just a leader of that team. 130 00:05:52,720 --> 00:05:54,640 Speaker 4: Everyone on the team loves Dobbins. At least you'll be 131 00:05:54,680 --> 00:05:57,160 Speaker 4: on the sideline, But a big miss for them with 132 00:05:57,279 --> 00:05:58,120 Speaker 4: not getting Dobbins back. 133 00:05:58,160 --> 00:05:59,880 Speaker 3: On the flip side, looks. 134 00:05:59,680 --> 00:06:02,080 Speaker 4: Like Mac Collins might be back here for the Patriots, 135 00:06:02,080 --> 00:06:03,640 Speaker 4: which is a big deal for them as well. And 136 00:06:03,920 --> 00:06:05,599 Speaker 4: you know, as much as that hurts us, on the spread. 137 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:07,279 Speaker 4: I think that helps us with a total, which we 138 00:06:07,320 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 4: also like here. So nothing's way for me. Chad SI 139 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 4: really confidence Broncos team. It's still my favorite bet this week. 140 00:06:12,920 --> 00:06:18,680 Speaker 1: I have also heavily invested in Jared's Didham props. I'm 141 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:23,479 Speaker 1: over his thirty one and a half passing attempts. Okay, 142 00:06:23,760 --> 00:06:27,520 Speaker 1: I think I did an alt over his two hundred 143 00:06:27,520 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: and sixty passing yards. I also did a a single game. 144 00:06:33,560 --> 00:06:37,120 Speaker 1: I'm going like every rule that I that I have 145 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:40,840 Speaker 1: for myself during the regular season, I am breaking during 146 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 1: the playoffs just because just for this game, specifically for 147 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 1: this game. 148 00:06:45,240 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 3: It's fun. Get action. 149 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:48,320 Speaker 4: I mean, honestly, it doesn't come compare Like this is 150 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 4: probably gonna be my biggest bet other season this Denver 151 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 4: on this number. But I'm like you, I did some 152 00:06:53,320 --> 00:06:55,280 Speaker 4: props I would say the prop i'd give on this show. 153 00:06:55,720 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 4: I think his over rushing yards. 154 00:06:57,560 --> 00:07:00,440 Speaker 2: I mean that's I took Drake May over fourty rushing. 155 00:07:00,680 --> 00:07:02,279 Speaker 1: Let me just finish because the partly I did that 156 00:07:02,360 --> 00:07:05,720 Speaker 1: the SGP I did was Stidham over two hundred and 157 00:07:05,839 --> 00:07:06,880 Speaker 1: sixty passing yards. 158 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:08,919 Speaker 2: Stidham over thirty. 159 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:13,960 Speaker 1: It's thirty two plus passing attempts and Drake may forty 160 00:07:13,960 --> 00:07:17,560 Speaker 1: plus rushing yards because I don't think we talked about 161 00:07:17,560 --> 00:07:21,040 Speaker 1: this on the show with JK. Dobbins out. I think 162 00:07:21,080 --> 00:07:23,720 Speaker 1: that that Sean Payton builds a game plan where he's 163 00:07:23,760 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 1: just leaning into Dried Stidham. He had eleven rushing attempts 164 00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:29,960 Speaker 1: called the eleven rushing attempts in that overtime game against 165 00:07:30,000 --> 00:07:34,040 Speaker 1: the Bills. The Patriots rushing defense is dominant. It lines 166 00:07:34,120 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 1: up for Stidham, who has never had fewer than thirty 167 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:40,320 Speaker 1: two pass attempts in his four starts, to just sling 168 00:07:40,400 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: the ball. 169 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 4: And it could just be what they go back to, 170 00:07:43,920 --> 00:07:47,040 Speaker 4: which is Sean Payne's offense of if they don't run it, 171 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:47,640 Speaker 4: they're happy. 172 00:07:47,720 --> 00:07:50,040 Speaker 3: Champion's happy. I have three or four, three or four 173 00:07:50,080 --> 00:07:53,160 Speaker 3: yard completion. This is Drew Drew Brees days. 174 00:07:53,000 --> 00:07:55,960 Speaker 4: That's been Is that like, yes, that's right. If he 175 00:07:55,960 --> 00:07:58,120 Speaker 4: doesn't like the look with the run, he'll have the 176 00:07:58,200 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 4: QB check out of it and just take the three 177 00:08:00,000 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 4: three yard four yard completion. Just keep the sticks moving. 178 00:08:02,600 --> 00:08:05,080 Speaker 4: So I don't hate that bet by you at all. 179 00:08:06,080 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 1: We're also on the over we had bettered at forty 180 00:08:08,880 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 1: two and a half in the contest. That's what's been available. 181 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 1: It's now at forty three and a half. Do you 182 00:08:15,320 --> 00:08:17,240 Speaker 1: have a strong opinion? Forty three is a key number? 183 00:08:17,280 --> 00:08:18,920 Speaker 1: So do you have a strong opinion now that it's 184 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 1: over forty three and a half? 185 00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 3: No, still on it, like you. 186 00:08:22,960 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 4: I wish I had hammered this one on Tuesday. Yeah, 187 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 4: it was forty or forty and a half. And my 188 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:33,480 Speaker 4: feeling was though it was right that most guys will 189 00:08:33,480 --> 00:08:35,360 Speaker 4: look at this game that there could be turnovers by 190 00:08:35,360 --> 00:08:36,359 Speaker 4: both these quarterbacks. 191 00:08:36,400 --> 00:08:38,520 Speaker 3: Right, these are both inexperienced quarterbacks. 192 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:41,320 Speaker 4: Ones making his first playoffs, so the one's making his 193 00:08:41,520 --> 00:08:44,319 Speaker 4: first road playoff start. There's got to be some nerves 194 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 4: and some jitters, so we expect short fields and we've 195 00:08:47,160 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 4: seen Drake may been really good in the red zone, 196 00:08:49,200 --> 00:08:51,960 Speaker 4: tends to score touchdowns. And on the flip side, you've 197 00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:54,439 Speaker 4: seen Champayne scheming up that his team's getting the red zone, 198 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:57,560 Speaker 4: they tend to score as well. So I haven't waivered 199 00:08:57,559 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 4: on the total at all. It's the type of game 200 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:02,640 Speaker 4: too where I feel like, if it's even sixteen fourteen 201 00:09:02,679 --> 00:09:04,959 Speaker 4: head into the fourth quarter, you could see a ton 202 00:09:05,000 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 4: of points. It seems like Both these people are turned 203 00:09:07,120 --> 00:09:09,640 Speaker 4: on at any point, so we just got to keep 204 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:11,720 Speaker 4: an arms reach. If it's ten to three and a half, 205 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:13,280 Speaker 4: I'm not gonna be lying. I'll be a little worried 206 00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 4: about this total. If it's uh at the beginning again, 207 00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:17,640 Speaker 4: either of these quarterbacks we talked about, it could lay 208 00:09:17,760 --> 00:09:18,760 Speaker 4: easily lay in neck right. 209 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 3: It's th defenses have been playing really well. 210 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,040 Speaker 4: Especially you know, down the stretch for Denver in the 211 00:09:24,040 --> 00:09:26,480 Speaker 4: playoffs for the Spatriots team. So I can't wait to 212 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 4: see what happens as one. But yeah, nice to see 213 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 4: the pros are with us. 214 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:30,839 Speaker 3: Right. This number has been bet up all week. 215 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:36,559 Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams at the Seattle Seahawks. The line is 216 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:38,840 Speaker 1: still two and a half. The totals come down just 217 00:09:38,880 --> 00:09:43,160 Speaker 1: to touch forty five and a half. This was our 218 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:47,400 Speaker 1: biggest debate of the week, to the point where you 219 00:09:47,440 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 1: and I chatted yesterday and had a long conversation about it. 220 00:09:53,000 --> 00:09:56,320 Speaker 1: I think we're still a little bit split, but on 221 00:09:56,400 --> 00:10:01,360 Speaker 1: the call yesterday you had some really compel arguments about 222 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks, and that is why the Seattle Seahawks. 223 00:10:06,720 --> 00:10:09,640 Speaker 2: At minus two and a half are going to be 224 00:10:10,360 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 2: our brass ball. 225 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:19,560 Speaker 1: Better the Week presented by Hard Rock Bett. 226 00:10:20,080 --> 00:10:23,520 Speaker 3: You know what it takes, brass balls. 227 00:10:25,400 --> 00:10:28,960 Speaker 1: The Seattle Seahawks going to the contest at minus two 228 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: and a half, share with everybody, simon what you told 229 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:37,000 Speaker 1: me yesterday to convince me that it was time to 230 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 1: pull the trigger on the Seahawks at least for the contest. 231 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:43,960 Speaker 3: I mean, there's a lot of things I feel like 232 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:44,719 Speaker 3: at the end of the day. 233 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,880 Speaker 4: What we've talked about when both these teams are so 234 00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:51,319 Speaker 4: evenly matched, when you talk about how they played two 235 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 4: games this year and both decided by two points and 236 00:10:53,640 --> 00:10:56,120 Speaker 4: one point, that it's been that close of a margin, 237 00:10:56,679 --> 00:10:57,440 Speaker 4: what was gonna. 238 00:10:57,200 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 3: Be the difference in this matchup? Right? If these two 239 00:10:58,960 --> 00:10:59,800 Speaker 3: teams know each other so. 240 00:10:59,840 --> 00:11:02,040 Speaker 4: Well, and I ship trying to beat your head over 241 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:04,360 Speaker 4: the rest, the rest to me is gonna be the 242 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 4: big deciding factor in this game and how these teams 243 00:11:06,440 --> 00:11:08,319 Speaker 4: hold off, especially in the second half. 244 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 3: And what I brought up to Chad was if he 245 00:11:10,679 --> 00:11:11,360 Speaker 3: saw that clip. 246 00:11:11,360 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 4: I don't know if anyone else has seen it of 247 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:16,640 Speaker 4: Caleb Williams at the Blackhawks game walking up the stairs 248 00:11:16,920 --> 00:11:19,480 Speaker 4: to leave the Blackhaws game, and he basically looked like 249 00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 4: a fifty year old man or not team said that 250 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:23,640 Speaker 4: eighty year old man walking up the stairs. 251 00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:25,160 Speaker 2: I was gonna say, fifty year old men. 252 00:11:25,240 --> 00:11:28,280 Speaker 4: They can be spry, they can, but they can look 253 00:11:28,320 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 4: beat up after again hit around a couple couple of rounds. 254 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 4: But he just looked so broken, like he basically was 255 00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:36,880 Speaker 4: holding the handrail all the way up and just looked 256 00:11:36,920 --> 00:11:40,920 Speaker 4: like every step was aching pain. Okay, Cailei Williams, is 257 00:11:40,960 --> 00:11:42,680 Speaker 4: what twenty three to twenty four years old. 258 00:11:43,200 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 3: Go to the flip side. 259 00:11:44,200 --> 00:11:46,719 Speaker 4: Go to Stafford, who threw the ball more, take more 260 00:11:46,840 --> 00:11:49,200 Speaker 4: hits in that game and is now in a short 261 00:11:49,240 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 4: week on the road once again playing a Seahawks team 262 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:55,560 Speaker 4: that is basically well rested, basically have played three quarters 263 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,520 Speaker 4: in three weeks, like you couldn't have had dreamed of 264 00:11:57,600 --> 00:12:00,120 Speaker 4: better scenario for the Seahawks team. And it's like that 265 00:12:00,200 --> 00:12:02,280 Speaker 4: stat of keep giving out to people underdogs in this 266 00:12:02,360 --> 00:12:06,600 Speaker 4: exact spot nine and twenty five straight up in the 267 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:09,360 Speaker 4: history of the NFL. It's just if you're in overtime 268 00:12:09,440 --> 00:12:11,480 Speaker 4: in the playoffs and you're on the road now and 269 00:12:11,720 --> 00:12:14,559 Speaker 4: you have worse rest than your team are playing against, 270 00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:17,360 Speaker 4: it's a death sentence. It's just so much overcome, so 271 00:12:17,440 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 4: Ken Stafford overcoming, of course. I mean he if any 272 00:12:20,440 --> 00:12:23,200 Speaker 4: quarterback can play well against the defense has been Stafford. 273 00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:24,000 Speaker 3: He has lit them up. 274 00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:27,760 Speaker 4: On the flip side, Donald has struggled against this Seahawks team. 275 00:12:28,240 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 4: But I think people are reading way too much into it, 276 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 4: Like these teams are not the same teams they were 277 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 4: last time they played. 278 00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:37,560 Speaker 3: They've changed so much, not just because of health wise, but. 279 00:12:37,760 --> 00:12:40,679 Speaker 4: Just their identity where I really think this Seawks team 280 00:12:40,720 --> 00:12:42,840 Speaker 4: has found something in the sense that they know they 281 00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:44,120 Speaker 4: just need to lean into the defense. 282 00:12:44,240 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 3: They just know that. 283 00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:47,040 Speaker 4: Like it just feels like they've totally shifted that way 284 00:12:47,080 --> 00:12:49,640 Speaker 4: where it's they've kind of taken the ball out of 285 00:12:49,640 --> 00:12:51,720 Speaker 4: San Donald's hands. I don't see them going forward on 286 00:12:51,760 --> 00:12:54,240 Speaker 4: fourth and twos, fourth and threes, I think they're gonna 287 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 4: punt played safe. On the flip side, I think McVeigh 288 00:12:57,520 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 4: goes for every fourth down. I think he'd be highly aggressive. 289 00:13:00,080 --> 00:13:01,959 Speaker 4: I once again, I think that plays in the Seahawks hands. 290 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:05,439 Speaker 4: Like this defense, they will get stopped. So, yeah, this 291 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:06,880 Speaker 4: was a tough one. Like you said, a lot of 292 00:13:06,920 --> 00:13:10,800 Speaker 4: back and I would say whatever confidence you did have 293 00:13:10,840 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 4: in the Rams, I have much more in the Seahawks, 294 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 4: and that kind of won the battle in our argument. 295 00:13:14,760 --> 00:13:17,960 Speaker 3: And uh, yeah, this that's right. 296 00:13:17,960 --> 00:13:20,960 Speaker 4: And I was kind of boring picking both one seats here, 297 00:13:21,000 --> 00:13:24,559 Speaker 4: but picking them both for such different unique situations and reasoning. 298 00:13:24,600 --> 00:13:27,040 Speaker 4: And the biggest winning for the Seahawks team is I 299 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,960 Speaker 4: just feel like they are going to really pay dividends 300 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:31,280 Speaker 4: to what they did at the end of the season, 301 00:13:31,320 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 4: which has been in that game against forty nine ers. 302 00:13:33,440 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 4: Now they've rested well with this this you know this 303 00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:39,360 Speaker 4: Rams team. They blew that game against the Seahawks. They 304 00:13:39,360 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 4: blew that game against the Eagles, and we knew eventually 305 00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:43,240 Speaker 4: had come back and bite them. I think this is 306 00:13:43,280 --> 00:13:44,960 Speaker 4: the game to comebacks and bite them like. This is 307 00:13:45,080 --> 00:13:48,240 Speaker 4: just such a horrible spot to be and and they've 308 00:13:48,280 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 4: no one to blame themselves, right, they could have been 309 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,480 Speaker 4: at home in this exact scenario themselves. Instead, they're on 310 00:13:52,520 --> 00:13:55,320 Speaker 4: their fourth straight road game, going into a hostile environment 311 00:13:55,400 --> 00:13:58,559 Speaker 4: and uh, to me, a game something we have talked 312 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 4: enough about was the special teams match up the Rams. 313 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 4: Oh my model, They've they've been in the bottom twenty 314 00:14:04,320 --> 00:14:05,880 Speaker 4: five all year and specially. 315 00:14:05,559 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 1: They fired their coach, Like at the end of the 316 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:08,800 Speaker 1: season before the season. 317 00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,840 Speaker 4: Was over, and got rid of their kicker because he 318 00:14:10,960 --> 00:14:12,800 Speaker 4: kept missing field goals. 319 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:16,240 Speaker 3: And on the flip side, Seahawks, they're my number three 320 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:17,280 Speaker 3: grated special teams. 321 00:14:17,320 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 4: And once again we talked about how small these margins 322 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,200 Speaker 4: are going to be. These things keep adding up, and 323 00:14:22,200 --> 00:14:24,160 Speaker 4: it's just like, how does not all of this favorite 324 00:14:24,160 --> 00:14:27,160 Speaker 4: the Owks team. So yeah, obviously nowhere nearest confident I 325 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:28,760 Speaker 4: am and the Broncos compared to the Shocks team. 326 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 3: But I love this bet. 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We've 366 00:16:13,760 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 1: talked about the sides and the totals in the contest 367 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,320 Speaker 1: that we're playing. There are props that are some of 368 00:16:19,320 --> 00:16:21,680 Speaker 1: the choices, just because we need to make five picks 369 00:16:21,680 --> 00:16:25,160 Speaker 1: and there's only two sides and two totals. So in 370 00:16:25,200 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 1: the contest, the props include for the Patriots and Broncos, 371 00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:34,720 Speaker 1: Jared Stidham over or under half an interception, so we'll here, 372 00:16:34,800 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 1: won't he throw an interception? Drake May over under I 373 00:16:39,080 --> 00:16:45,000 Speaker 1: think it was a touchdown. And for this because we 374 00:16:45,120 --> 00:16:49,120 Speaker 1: expect Stidham, who hasn't played obviously in a couple of years, to. 375 00:16:49,120 --> 00:16:50,080 Speaker 2: Be slinging it. 376 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:56,360 Speaker 1: We like Stidham over the half an interception, so we 377 00:16:56,480 --> 00:16:58,920 Speaker 1: like him to throw an interception. In the Rams and 378 00:16:58,960 --> 00:17:02,800 Speaker 1: the Seahawks, the options were Stafford over under thirty nine 379 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:06,160 Speaker 1: and a half yards for his longest path and Jackson 380 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:10,200 Speaker 1: Smith and Jigma and Jigba over under half a touchdown. 381 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:14,639 Speaker 1: We decided to go with Jackson Smith and Jigba under 382 00:17:14,880 --> 00:17:18,280 Speaker 1: half a touchdown basically no touchdown. Simon, I thought you 383 00:17:18,320 --> 00:17:21,160 Speaker 1: just had a really good logic on why we were 384 00:17:21,200 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 1: making that choice. I want you to explain it to 385 00:17:23,600 --> 00:17:26,479 Speaker 1: everybody sort of mathematically, because you're thinking about it as 386 00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:28,840 Speaker 1: professional better not just sort of as what might happen 387 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 1: on the field. 388 00:17:29,960 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 3: Yeah, and we love Stitty, it's just we're playing the math. 389 00:17:32,359 --> 00:17:35,119 Speaker 4: Like Chad just said, it's it's now up to minus 390 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 4: one forty in the throw pick. 391 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:38,840 Speaker 3: So we're getting on. 392 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 4: And JSN another guy where you know anytime touchdown minus 393 00:17:44,240 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 4: one ten. Sure that's fair if you go through it. Okay, 394 00:17:48,560 --> 00:17:52,159 Speaker 4: he has ten touchdowns this season. In four games he 395 00:17:52,200 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 4: scored two touchdowns, So I mean, I'm no mathematician. 396 00:17:55,960 --> 00:17:56,800 Speaker 3: You guys could do the math. 397 00:17:57,240 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 4: It's it's less than fifty percent chance that he's going 398 00:17:59,320 --> 00:18:00,720 Speaker 4: to score a touchdown these games. If you just go 399 00:18:00,840 --> 00:18:04,120 Speaker 4: base off this season, he's being priced as if it's 400 00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:08,119 Speaker 4: you know, basically better than fifty percent. And if you 401 00:18:08,160 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 4: look at the math as well, it's minus one fifty 402 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:12,440 Speaker 4: for or no touchdown in our contest. 403 00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,200 Speaker 3: Like you, Chad said, we're getting minus one ten. 404 00:18:14,359 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 4: So it's it's a good it's two really logical good bets. 405 00:18:18,520 --> 00:18:22,639 Speaker 4: And yeah, I just you know, as much as we 406 00:18:22,680 --> 00:18:25,480 Speaker 4: love Seattle and we think Jayson has possibility to score, 407 00:18:25,560 --> 00:18:27,639 Speaker 4: there's other piece in their team they're going to focus 408 00:18:27,680 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 4: on here and where you think the Rams that would 409 00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:31,720 Speaker 4: be the guy they'll be focused on the takeaway. So 410 00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:35,320 Speaker 4: I love both our props. And one more thing I'll 411 00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:36,720 Speaker 4: get out of here. I forgot to mention our guy, 412 00:18:36,720 --> 00:18:39,080 Speaker 4: Evan Abrams. Just one more stat I'll give up before 413 00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:44,200 Speaker 4: we give out here. Teams of overtime wins in the 414 00:18:44,240 --> 00:18:47,639 Speaker 4: playoffs six and thirteen straight up in the next round 415 00:18:48,080 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 4: when they're off overtime and at arrest disadvantage, one and 416 00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:54,840 Speaker 4: eight straight up in the NFL playoffs history. It's just 417 00:18:54,960 --> 00:18:57,560 Speaker 4: once again a brutal, brutal spot for this Rams team. 418 00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 1: All right, So our final five, we're going with the 419 00:19:01,560 --> 00:19:04,080 Speaker 1: Denver Broncos. We got them at four and a half 420 00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:05,800 Speaker 1: in the contest, there are at three and a half. 421 00:19:05,840 --> 00:19:08,040 Speaker 1: We still like them at three and a half, we 422 00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:10,119 Speaker 1: are we are much more invested in the Broncos and 423 00:19:10,200 --> 00:19:13,959 Speaker 1: the Broncos success today though than any Yeah, you can 424 00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:17,000 Speaker 1: get some for us, we are much more invested across 425 00:19:17,040 --> 00:19:19,600 Speaker 1: the board in the Broncos success. We're also on this 426 00:19:19,720 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: game over forty two and a half. In the contest, 427 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: it's at forty three and a half. Most places still 428 00:19:24,800 --> 00:19:27,840 Speaker 1: like the total. There we are on the Seahawks. That's 429 00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: our brass Balls bet of the week at minus two 430 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:33,520 Speaker 1: and a half. The rest advantage for the Seahawks was 431 00:19:33,560 --> 00:19:37,560 Speaker 1: the ultimate deciding factor for us choosing that. And then 432 00:19:37,560 --> 00:19:40,359 Speaker 1: we put in two props into the contest, Jared's did 433 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:44,560 Speaker 1: him to throw an interception and Jackson Smith and jigbut to. 434 00:19:44,760 --> 00:19:48,439 Speaker 2: Not score a touchdown. Those are the five. 435 00:19:49,480 --> 00:19:54,200 Speaker 1: We will be back later tonight our final Sunday show, 436 00:19:54,600 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 1: Sunday evening show. 437 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 2: Of the year. 438 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:59,680 Speaker 1: This has been Sharper Square, part of the Volume podcast network. 439 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:04,600 Speaker 1: The show will come on after after the Rams Seahawks game. 440 00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: We're going to recap all the glory and misery of 441 00:20:06,840 --> 00:20:09,399 Speaker 1: the day. Should be an exciting day. Watch or listen 442 00:20:09,440 --> 00:20:11,440 Speaker 1: on YouTube at sharp at Square like this video, subscribe 443 00:20:11,440 --> 00:20:14,359 Speaker 1: to the channel. Also download us on Spotify, Apple Pods, 444 00:20:14,359 --> 00:20:17,520 Speaker 1: wherever you get your pods. Rate review subscribe leaves five stars. 445 00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 1: Say whatever you want until tonight. 446 00:20:20,320 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 2: I love you. 447 00:20:22,119 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 3: The road to the super Bowl is like a mythic quest. 448 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:30,040 Speaker 3: It's a demanding journey, an adventure that creates heroes.