Speaker 1: Hey there, everybody. Welcome back to the Betting Pros NFL Podcast,
Speaker 1: brought to you by Bett MGM. I'm your host, Dan Harris.
Speaker 1: You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty.
Speaker 1: It was a wild divisional round weekend and we have
Speaker 1: a ton to talk about. With me to break things
Speaker 1: down this week is Ian McMillan, a writer over at
Speaker 1: oddshark dot com. You can find them on Twitter at
Speaker 1: Ian macOS Ian. Thanks for coming back on how you doing.
Speaker 2: I'm doing fantastic. It was an absolute whirlwind of a
Speaker 2: weekend of games, some wild games. So yeah, let's get
Speaker 2: into it.
Speaker 1: You knew one of the big favorites was gonna lose, right,
Speaker 1: I mean, the books aren't going to take a bath
Speaker 1: on all these moneyline parlays. You knew that somewhere one
Speaker 1: of these teams, either the Chiefs or the Ravens, probably
Speaker 1: something was gonna go crazy. I mean I didn't expect it,
Speaker 1: but I mean this is the way it works, right,
Speaker 1: This is how gambling works. The unexpected happens, and somehow,
Speaker 1: I'm sure the books made a total killing on that game.
Speaker 2: Oh absolutely. And I mean like something I was looking
Speaker 2: at all week was I was tempted. I looked at
Speaker 2: it almost every day. I was tempted just to take
Speaker 2: a three team money line parlay of the forty nine Ers, Ravens,
Speaker 2: and Chiefs. But something kept telling me, now, one of
Speaker 2: those teams are gonna lose, and sure enough they did.
Speaker 2: So I'm glad I held off on that. Now.
Speaker 1: You've been on quite a run actually lately. I mean
Speaker 1: I follow you on Twitter. You've been doing very well
Speaker 1: with your picks to that hold for the divisional round
Speaker 1: in the NFL. Or did you take a bath like
Speaker 1: a lot of betters.
Speaker 2: Yeah, no, I've Yeah, I've done pretty well this year.
Speaker 2: That held in the divisional round. It went three to
Speaker 2: one and one in the divisional round that I lost
Speaker 2: in the last game the my Packers Seahawks pick so
Speaker 2: six one and one total in the NFL playoffs so far.
Speaker 2: So I'm doing well.
Speaker 1: All right, let's keep it going then into next week.
Speaker 1: So we are doing things a little bit differently this week.
Speaker 1: We usually record and publish on Monday night, but we
Speaker 1: figured why wait, football's fresh on everyone's mind, let's just
Speaker 1: jump into it. So we are recording this on Sunday night,
Speaker 1: like right after the Seahawks Packers game ended. Because there
Speaker 1: are only two games next week, we're going to change
Speaker 1: it up a little bit for this early show. Were
Speaker 1: to break down each of the divisional weekends games first
Speaker 1: before looking ahead to next week. And if you are
Speaker 1: at all familiar with my work, you know that this
Speaker 1: is my happy place because I host the Sunday night
Speaker 1: recap show for the Fantasy Pros Football podcast. So I
Speaker 1: am all about breaking things down with zero time to
Speaker 1: think about them. So let's just jump in right here
Speaker 1: with the forty nine Ers twenty seven Vikings ten. This
Speaker 1: was a seven point spread and it wasn't something I
Speaker 1: personally really wanted to get involved with at that number,
Speaker 1: the key number. It honestly felt like a little bit
Speaker 1: of value on the Vikes to me, but nothing I
Speaker 1: really wanted to trust. But as I mentioned on Thursday,
Speaker 1: I felt extremely confident that the forty nine Ers were
Speaker 1: gonna win this one. I talked about on Thursday show
Speaker 1: Kwan Alexander d Ford coming back with Tart. I mean,
Speaker 1: the key defenders on defense returning. I thought they'd be
Speaker 1: able to get pressure on Cousins without blitzing, which they
Speaker 1: did six sacks, the passing offense for the Vikings cannot
Speaker 1: get anything going. The defense is completely The defense completely
Speaker 1: shuts down Dalvin Cook just nine rushes for eighteen yards.
Speaker 1: The offense. Meanwhile, after the Garoppolo interception, they got conservative
Speaker 1: a bit. Garoppolo attempts only nineteen passes there was for
Speaker 1: one hundred and thirty one yards and a touchdown with
Speaker 1: the one pick. The running backs tally forty two carries,
Speaker 1: twenty two for Tevin Coleman of course, for one hundred
Speaker 1: and five yards and two scores, where he mostered twelve
Speaker 1: for fifty eight Mattbrita eight for seventeen. He does lose
Speaker 1: a fumble at the end. I believe Mostart hurt his
Speaker 1: calf at some point in the second half. Doesn't sound
Speaker 1: too severe, and there's rumors that Coleman banged up his elbow,
Speaker 1: So it doesn't sound like either one's availability for next
Speaker 1: week's game against the Packers is in doubt. But we'll
Speaker 1: break down that specific matchup with the Packers in a bit.
Speaker 1: But I mean, after seeing this game, you have to
Speaker 1: be pretty impressed with the forty nine ers, right, Oh.
Speaker 2: Absolutely. I mean they look like a complete team offense, defense.
Speaker 2: I mean, I thought the forty nine Ers in this game.
Speaker 2: I thought this was was this was the pick I
Speaker 2: was the most confident in this weekend. I think there
Speaker 2: was a lot of recency bias from the Vikings beating
Speaker 2: the Saints last weekend, but Kirk Cousins on the road
Speaker 2: West Coast. This time. They were playing on a grass field.
Speaker 2: It wasn't a dome like they were playing against the Saints,
Speaker 2: So I think it was a little bit of recency
Speaker 2: bias went into that line. So I like the forty
Speaker 2: nine Ers. That's why I took them the minus seven.
Speaker 2: I wasn't too afraid of that big spread. The big
Speaker 2: thing is the forty nine Ers defense, and in throughout
Speaker 2: the whole season they've been like a top two, top
Speaker 2: three defensive unit the entire season, and not too many
Speaker 2: people are talking about that, especially the pass defense as well.
Speaker 2: Outside of that long pass, I believe that was to
Speaker 2: Digs right early in the game to make it seven
Speaker 2: to seven. Other than that long pass, they completely contained
Speaker 2: the passing game with at least one interception. I know
Speaker 2: Richard Sherman got an interception, was one interception or two?
Speaker 2: Such a whirlwind the games because that was the first
Speaker 2: one but at least one interception there. I mean that
Speaker 2: forty nine ers pass defenses might be the best pass
Speaker 2: defense in the league right now, definitely the best pass
Speaker 2: defense left over to the teams that are left. So
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers they are looking good. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, for me again, part of the reason why
Speaker 1: I didn't feel comfortable at the seven is just, I mean,
Speaker 1: as good as the forty nine ers are, they just
Speaker 1: they've played a ton of close games, right, I mean
Speaker 1: basically the last five or six weeks, they're within one
Speaker 1: score when they were winning. So they just didn't strike
Speaker 1: me as the type of team that's going to be
Speaker 1: able to necessarily blow out the Vikings, who I kind
Speaker 1: of feel like we're a little underrated, you know. I
Speaker 1: get that everybody was jumping on them because of the
Speaker 1: fact that they went into New Orleans and beat the Saints,
Speaker 1: but you know, part of the thing with them is
Speaker 1: they were dealing without a healthy Adam Feelin for a
Speaker 1: long time, without a healthy Dalvin Cook. So with both
Speaker 1: of those guys back, and of course you have this
Speaker 1: weird injury where theelan apparently gets spiked, you know, during
Speaker 1: practice and kind of almost messes up his Achilles or
Speaker 1: something like that. So there were all these weird things
Speaker 1: that went into it, but you made the key point,
Speaker 1: which is the defense. It was one interception, by the way,
Speaker 1: I just confirmed that. But it's Kwan Alexander coming back,
Speaker 1: which I did not expect to necessarily see him at
Speaker 1: all for the remainder of the season. D Ford, who
Speaker 1: didn't play a full complement of snaps, but he's able
Speaker 1: to get pressure so easily when you combine him with
Speaker 1: Bosa in particular, you know, in Armstead and then Tart
Speaker 1: out there just kind of helps the entire defense. And
Speaker 1: again it's got an elite pass defense coming in, of course,
Speaker 1: but Tart coming back really also kind of made everything
Speaker 1: just whole. And you see, especially playing at home. We'll
Speaker 1: get into that game against the Packers, but it's right now,
Speaker 1: they just look really scary. Does it worry you at all?
Speaker 1: I mean, look, they had the game. It wasn't though,
Speaker 1: like they were way ahead the entire time. I mean
Speaker 1: they wound up winning twenty seven to ten. But again
Speaker 1: after Garoppolo threw that pick, which was you know, not
Speaker 1: a great pick, I mean he just didn't he just
Speaker 1: didn't view the defender coming in they went really really
Speaker 1: conservative on offense, and they just ran the ball. You know,
Speaker 1: they obviously had that driver. They ran it eight times
Speaker 1: straight to get in. Does it worry you at all
Speaker 1: coming in as to whether you know Garoppolo is up
Speaker 1: for the task. You know, he's got at least one
Speaker 1: more game, possibly too if he makes to the Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: Considering I mean he attempted only nineteen passes one hundred
Speaker 1: and thirty one yards. I don't know if that's necessarily
Speaker 1: going to be able to get it done, or do
Speaker 1: you just think that they said, you know, we've got
Speaker 1: this game where just gonna rely on our run game
Speaker 1: because we think our defense can hold the four.
Speaker 2: I mean, for most cases, if you can just run
Speaker 2: the ball, and if you're as successful out of it
Speaker 2: as the forty nine ers are, why even why do
Speaker 2: you need to pass the ball? So, I mean, running
Speaker 2: the ball is a little bit less risky Grapplo. I mean,
Speaker 2: I see where you're coming from, because I'm kind of
Speaker 2: slightly questioned the ball season, but he's played very solid
Speaker 2: throughout the entire season. He didn't he hasn't really had
Speaker 2: any games where like, oh geez, that was a stinker,
Speaker 2: and I think a huge advantage the forty nine ers
Speaker 2: have and I think this was actually showed pretty clearly
Speaker 2: in this game against the Vikings as the coaching advantage.
Speaker 2: I think Kyle Shanahan is a fantastic coach. I love
Speaker 2: how much he uses motion on offense. It's something like
Speaker 2: seventy eight percent of his plays they do a motion
Speaker 2: pre snap, which is really interesting when you watch that.
Speaker 2: And of course, me being a former Falcons fan, I
Speaker 2: try a little bit every time I see Kyle Shanahan
Speaker 2: having success him in tivin Coleman because of course he
Speaker 2: was the Falcons offensive coordinator when they went to the
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, they let him go. So I'm a big KYLEE.
Speaker 2: Shanahan fan. I think he is one of the best
Speaker 2: coaches in the NFL right now, and I think that
Speaker 2: showed a lot in that Vikings game. And we're gonna
Speaker 2: see I mean, we're gonna talk about the game against
Speaker 2: the Packers here shortly, but I think we're gonna we
Speaker 2: might see that a battle a couple of New Wish
Speaker 2: head coaches there next weekend. And I think Kyle Shanahan's
Speaker 2: gonna keep shining.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think he is too. And speaking of winning
Speaker 1: games when your quarterback doesn't have to do much. Let's
Speaker 1: move on to the Titans twenty eight Ravens twelve. As
Speaker 1: we said, you know, this was the one game. I
Speaker 1: gotta imagine that whatever else happened this weekend for the books,
Speaker 1: the fact that this blew up all the money line
Speaker 1: parlays just completely made their weekend. The Titans, they controlled
Speaker 1: this game pretty much the entire way through. Ryan Tannehill
Speaker 1: does almost nothing again, seven completions, eighty eight yards. He
Speaker 1: does throw the two touchdowns, it's all Derreck Henry again
Speaker 1: thirty carries one hundred and ninety five yards, despite the
Speaker 1: fact that I mean he was you watch that game.
Speaker 1: He's facing eight man fronts constantly in that game, and
Speaker 1: he's just plowing right through him. He also throws for
Speaker 1: a touchdown crying out loud. I mean, I I think
Speaker 1: that really leads just to the one big question that
Speaker 1: most people have coming out of that game. How much
Speaker 1: would someone have to offer you to attempt to tackle
Speaker 1: Derek Henry coming at you with a bullhead of steam?
Speaker 1: And what's the number.
Speaker 2: I'd do for free? Just see if I could do it.
Speaker 2: I used to play football back in the day. I
Speaker 2: played a little bit of college football up here in
Speaker 2: Canada as well. I was a running back, so I
Speaker 2: was the one getting hit like Derek Henry's. I mean,
Speaker 2: he's a beast, no doubt about it. I'd like to
Speaker 2: see if I could die. I mean, I'm sure I couldn't,
Speaker 2: but it'd be fun. I wouldn't mind being run over.
Speaker 2: I've been run over a couple of times in my career.
Speaker 1: So yeah, right, I just want to know that that's
Speaker 1: a terrible answer. The correct answer is sixteen thousand, four
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty dollars. All right. But meanwhile, the Ravens
Speaker 1: in this game, they're just off. They dropped a ton
Speaker 1: of passes, Lamar Jackson, turned the ball over three times.
Speaker 1: Mark Ing was banged up at first. Let me just ask,
Speaker 1: is this a game you feel like the Titans, you know,
Speaker 1: really won and they took it, or is this a
Speaker 1: game that the Ravens just kind of gave it to them?
Speaker 2: Oh? I think the Titans won. I think they took it.
Speaker 2: I think I think they they did what they had
Speaker 2: to do. And just to stay on the topic of
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry there and what I find most impressive about
Speaker 2: Derek Henry and it showed quite a bit in this game,
Speaker 2: and I think they briefly mentioned it during the broadcast
Speaker 2: as well. It's not necessarily the big runs that he
Speaker 2: keeps busting off. It's when guys get in the backfield
Speaker 2: and then he still ends up getting like a four
Speaker 2: or five yard game. It's insane. It's like he almost
Speaker 2: doesn't even need an offensive line. He's gonna get four
Speaker 2: yards every single time that he touches the ball. It's
Speaker 2: absolutely insane. Titans did exactly what they had to do
Speaker 2: with their game plan was fantastic. I was impressed with
Speaker 2: what Mike Frabele brought to the table that game. I
Speaker 2: love how he's doing like workouts with some of the
Speaker 2: other guys on the team right before kickoff. I think
Speaker 2: that's hilarious. He's passionate, and I think the whole team
Speaker 2: after that Patriots whin. They came into this game with
Speaker 2: a lot of confidence and that's just gonna keep rolling.
Speaker 2: I like the Titans right now. I think they're kind
Speaker 2: of one of those surprise teams, like we kind of
Speaker 2: saw the Giants there a handful of years ago, like
Speaker 2: a nine and seven team going to the playoffs. They're
Speaker 2: just hitting their stride at the perfect time, and I'm
Speaker 2: interested see what they're gonna do next week. But yeah,
Speaker 2: the Titans won that game. The other thing, I'm kind
Speaker 2: of Baltimore they were rusty. I think that was very
Speaker 2: clear that they're rusty. I don't know if I agree
Speaker 2: with their decision of sitting all their important starters in
Speaker 2: week seventeen when they had the bye week the next week.
Speaker 2: I mean that's two full weeks they completely took off.
Speaker 2: I think that kind of showed this weekend.
Speaker 1: Yeah, although to be fair, again, you know, the Chiefs
Speaker 1: came out completely flat and they played everybody right in
Speaker 1: Week seventeen, so you never really know what it was.
Speaker 1: And again, you know with the Ravens, the only thing
Speaker 1: I'll say is, as much as you know the Titans,
Speaker 1: really they were the better team on that day. In
Speaker 1: my opinion, I agree with you there. You know, the
Speaker 1: Ravens never get stopped on fourth down, and you know
Speaker 1: they went forward a couple of times and they didn't
Speaker 1: get it. They make it both those times, the game
Speaker 1: might be completely different, right, I mean, it's those little
Speaker 1: things that sort of happened in that game. But I
Speaker 1: agree with you the Titans right now. Look, they're extremely
Speaker 1: strong defensively. Ryan Tannehill, you know, he's not being asked
Speaker 1: to do all that much, but he's playing smart football,
Speaker 1: right He's you know, you can see him when he
Speaker 1: knows it's not there. He's not going to take usually
Speaker 1: the killer sack, and he's not going to try to
Speaker 1: force it into coverage. He's going to throw it away.
Speaker 1: He's going to protect them. And Derek Henry is a
Speaker 1: beast running the ball. I mean you said it. The
Speaker 1: number of times where he runs into the line and
Speaker 1: it's like, all right, there is nothing there and he
Speaker 1: just sort of plows forward for five yards. I mean,
Speaker 1: there is a huge difference when you're looking at second
Speaker 1: and five as opposed to second and eight. As much
Speaker 1: as the NFL has changed, if you play lockdown defense,
Speaker 1: if you can run the ball, you've got a chance
Speaker 1: to do something in the playoffs, right, So, I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm in agreement with you. I'm really interested to see
Speaker 1: where they go forward. Do you think, to be honest,
Speaker 1: that this team has a chance. I mean there's only
Speaker 1: four teams left, so yeah, they've got a chance, but
Speaker 1: a realistic chance to win the Super Bowl.
Speaker 2: Yes, I think they do. And the point that you
Speaker 2: mentioned about Tannahill is dead on. He's been very efficient.
Speaker 2: I think that's the word I've been kind of using
Speaker 2: for Ryan Tannehill. He's making the throzy ass to make,
Speaker 2: he's not making too many mistakes. He's only had one
Speaker 2: interception the last four games that he started in. He's
Speaker 2: doing exactly what what he needs to do. He's managing
Speaker 2: the game and he's just letting Derek Henry take over.
Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean, if they can get through the
Speaker 2: Patriots and the Ravens, that they can beat anyone, So
Speaker 2: why not? Why not Super Bowl?
Speaker 1: And you keep waiting for their efficiency in the red
Speaker 1: zone to die out, but it's just not. I mean
Speaker 1: every time they get in the Renzo, they're basically scoring
Speaker 1: a touchdown. So yeah, it's going to be interesting. We'll
Speaker 1: break down that game against the Chiefs in a minute,
Speaker 1: but before we move on and talk about today's games,
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Speaker 1: All right, Ian, let's get to the real wild one
Speaker 1: that Chiefs fifty one, Texans thirty one. All I can
Speaker 1: say is thank goodness for in game wagering. Okay, I
Speaker 1: mean I felt relatively confident even when the Chiefs saw
Speaker 1: way behind, that they were going to find a way
Speaker 1: to win that game. It's Bill O'Brien to Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 1: but it's fourteen nothing. The Textans are about to come
Speaker 1: in for another score, and you know that team from Braveheart,
Speaker 1: the first big battle where the cavalry's charging and Mel
Speaker 1: Gibson the screaming hold hold, and of course right then,
Speaker 1: only the cavalry gets just close enough and he screams no,
Speaker 1: and they all pick up the long sticks as a defense.
Speaker 1: That's legit how I felt as I'm watching the in
Speaker 1: game odds. It's fourteen to nothing. The Chiefs are still
Speaker 1: in game two point favorites. It's twenty one nothing, and
Speaker 1: the money line is still just like plus one point
Speaker 1: thirty on the Chiefs. I'm like, hold, hold, And finally
Speaker 1: it's twenty four to nothing. The in game money line
Speaker 1: on the Chiefs is like plus two ten and they're
Speaker 1: getting seven, and I'm like no. And that made up
Speaker 1: for a long weekend. But that is really one of
Speaker 1: the reasons why if you are gambling, make sure you're
Speaker 1: paying attention to in game wagers, because there's certainly a
Speaker 1: way to maximize your winning. Anyway, the Chiefs went crazy,
Speaker 1: fourth biggest comeback and playoff history. Travis Kelcey and Damian
Speaker 1: Williams score three touchdowns each. The homes throws for five touchdowns.
Speaker 1: The offense looks borderline unstoppable. The defense, however, obviously struggled
Speaker 1: for at least the first half. Deshaun Watson threw for
Speaker 1: three hundred eighty eight yards two touchdowns. DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills,
Speaker 1: Wolfeler they each had at least eighty yeards receiving. So
Speaker 1: you've got a game where the Chiefs were down twenty
Speaker 1: four to nothing at home against a mediocre team, but
Speaker 1: they ultimately win in a blowout. Do you feel better
Speaker 1: about the Chiefs worse about the Chiefs or the same
Speaker 1: that you felt coming in about the Chiefs.
Speaker 2: I think through all of that, I think I feel
Speaker 2: the same about the Chiefs, to be completely honest. I mean,
Speaker 2: I just have to say that was probably one of
Speaker 2: the most wild football games I've ever watched. I mean,
Speaker 2: I even though last year wasn't a huge comeback, I
Speaker 2: was thinking of last year's Chiefs and Rams Monday night
Speaker 2: game just with how many points were scored. Just an
Speaker 2: insane game to watch. I was just laughing out loud
Speaker 2: watching the game. It was nuts to see that twenty
Speaker 2: four and then they not only did they make the
Speaker 2: comeback from twenty four to nothing, they did it all
Speaker 2: in one quarter. They were winning at halftime. It was insane.
Speaker 2: But that's I mean, that is the Chiefs. They are extreme.
Speaker 2: They have an extremely explosive offense that can do that
Speaker 2: to any team. And don't forget Tech. The Texans were
Speaker 2: one of the worst defenses all year as well, so
Speaker 2: it wasn't totally surprising to see an explosive offense like
Speaker 2: that put up one points against that bad of a defense.
Speaker 2: So I mean, it's kind of what I expected. Also,
Speaker 2: I think Bill O'Brien kind of shot himself in the
Speaker 2: foot there a couple times when they did have the
Speaker 2: lead as well, so it wasn't totally surprising. But man,
Speaker 2: that was a fun game to watch.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't know, man, I feel a little worse
Speaker 1: about them, And that sounds insane, right, because they just
Speaker 1: had this incredible comeback. They wound up winning by twenty points.
Speaker 1: But you said it that Texans do not have an
Speaker 1: imposing defense, right, I mean, you should be able to
Speaker 1: basically do what you want to do. After they're coming
Speaker 1: off a very hard fought game against the Bills. You've had,
Speaker 1: you know, a week to rest, and again, you're not
Speaker 1: supposed to really be rusty. You had the game against
Speaker 1: the Charters in week seventeen where you should be ready
Speaker 1: to go, And the fact that they fall behind like
Speaker 1: that initially is kind of scary, especially because one of
Speaker 1: the reasons I really like the Chiefs is how well
Speaker 1: the defense had been playing, right. I mean, realistically, they
Speaker 1: had just started to put it all together over the
Speaker 1: last I don't know, five or six weeks. They were
Speaker 1: holding opponents way down. I don't know whether or not
Speaker 1: it was the injury to Thornhill or whatever that kind
Speaker 1: of messed them up a little bit. But it makes
Speaker 1: me a little worried about them because you know, they're
Speaker 1: going to go up against the Titans, and again, we'll
Speaker 1: talk about that game specifically in a minute, but I
Speaker 1: don't think they're going to be able to just do
Speaker 1: whatever they want offensively. I mean, the Titans are in
Speaker 1: a completely different class off defensively than the Texans. And
Speaker 1: I realized that the Texans beat the Titans a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago, so you know, but that's just kind
Speaker 1: of what football in right now. You don't really feel
Speaker 1: confident that, you know, the Texans would be able to
Speaker 1: hang with the Titans if they played with them. The
Speaker 1: Titans defense is very strong, they're playing well, you know,
Speaker 1: given the struggles of the Chiefs defense. This actually makes
Speaker 1: me a little more worried about them than I was
Speaker 1: coming in. Is that crazy?
Speaker 2: No, I mean, no, that's not crazy at all. And
Speaker 2: to be honest, like you said, I mean, we're going
Speaker 2: to talk about with this AFC Championship game here soon,
Speaker 2: but I'm I'm just from a betting percent for a perspective.
Speaker 2: I'm kind of glad that they had that's such a
Speaker 2: huge offensive burst there because the public is. I guarantee
Speaker 2: you the public's gonna love them next week because of
Speaker 2: that recency bias, and I think just because that offensive explained,
Speaker 2: I mean fifty one points, the public's gonna see that,
Speaker 2: and I think they're gonna they're gonna bet on them.
Speaker 2: So yeah, from the eye like that, and we're gonna
Speaker 2: get in that game here soon. But yeah, I mean
Speaker 2: I wasn't too sold on the Chiefs going into the
Speaker 2: game to begin with, though, so that's why I kind
Speaker 2: of still feel the same. It's kind of what I expected.
Speaker 2: Their defenses is decent, They're not great, They're not bad.
Speaker 2: I mean, Deshaun Watson is a winner, so I think
Speaker 2: you have to kind of put you have to take
Speaker 2: that into consideration as well. He was gonna have a
Speaker 2: good game today regardless. I think it's Deshaun Watson. He
Speaker 2: can bring it when the pressure's on. So I think
Speaker 2: part of that was just kind of Deshaun Watson doing
Speaker 2: Deshaun Watson things as well, So I think you have
Speaker 2: to kind of take that in consideration.
Speaker 1: I think that's certainly a fair spin. So we'll talk
Speaker 1: about that Titans Chiefs game in the second, but first
Speaker 1: let's get to the last game of this past weekend
Speaker 1: Packers twenty eight, Seahawks twenty three. This ended right before
Speaker 1: we started recording, so it's real fresh in our minds.
Speaker 1: I don't think it's rocket science to say that the
Speaker 1: Seahawks should probably just le Russell Wilson do his thing
Speaker 1: right from the start instead of trying to run the
Speaker 1: ball with you know, old and backup running backs. That's
Speaker 1: a story for another time, though. I'm interested to hear
Speaker 1: your thoughts here because this feels like another game in
Speaker 1: a long list of games for the Packers where you
Speaker 1: leave and you think they're not that good of a team.
Speaker 1: I mean, Aaron Rodgers sixteen to twenty seven for two
Speaker 1: hundred and forty three yards and two touchdowns, both to
Speaker 1: Devontae Adams, who had a huge game with one hundred
Speaker 1: and six yards. I'll admit that Rogers made a couple
Speaker 1: of incredible throws, especially right at the end there to
Speaker 1: Devontae Adams, where he just dropped it in. Aaron Jones
Speaker 1: rushes twenty one times only sixty two yards. He does
Speaker 1: score two touchdowns. I mean, the Seahawks are not a
Speaker 1: particularly imposing defense, so they didn't look great offensively. Here
Speaker 1: the defense for the Packers. They do sack Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: five times, but it certainly didn't have this dominant defensive
Speaker 1: effort feel to the whole thing. So I asked it
Speaker 1: with the Chiefs. How about the Packers after this game? Better, worse?
Speaker 1: The same? How are you feeling this idea?
Speaker 2: Yeah? The same. I'm not a huge believer in the Packers.
Speaker 2: I think, to be completely frank and blunt, I think
Speaker 2: they're one of the worst thirteen to three teams ever.
Speaker 2: And actually, if you look at the stats, they do
Speaker 2: have the worst point differential, like the plus minus point
Speaker 2: differential of any thirteen to three team. Ever, they barely
Speaker 2: held on to that against the Seahawks. And I read
Speaker 2: something earlier today about the Seahawks. If you took every
Speaker 2: single score game that was decided by a single score
Speaker 2: in the NFL season this year and flipped the result,
Speaker 2: the Seahawks would have been the worst team in the NFC.
Speaker 2: They would have been three and thirteen if you flipped
Speaker 2: all those singles score games. So the Seahawks really worn't
Speaker 2: that great of a team, and the Packers barely held
Speaker 2: on to that win. I mean a big reason of that,
Speaker 2: but just because, like you said, Russell Wilson can just
Speaker 2: completely take over the game. And that's why the Seahawks
Speaker 2: got into the playoffs just because of Russell Wilson. So
Speaker 2: but I mean for the Packers to have impressed me,
Speaker 2: they would have had to really have handled the Seahawks,
Speaker 2: and they did at the start, but then they let
Speaker 2: them completely climb back in and the Seahawks could have
Speaker 2: won that game. If Russell Wilson didn't take that there
Speaker 2: on third down, the Seahawks could have went down and
Speaker 2: scored a touchdown and won the game. So I'm not
Speaker 2: sold on the Packers whatsoever. And that's that's how I
Speaker 2: felt going into it. I didn't bet on a side
Speaker 2: in this game. I ended up taking the under, so
Speaker 2: I that was my first loss in the NFL playoffs.
Speaker 2: But I didn't really trust either offense. But that's why
Speaker 2: I didn't bet on the side, because I think both
Speaker 2: the Seahawks and the Packers aren't as good as the
Speaker 2: records have shown. So I didn't believe in the Packers
Speaker 2: before the game. I don't believe in the Packers moving forward.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. And the thing is it's probably
Speaker 1: not going to be an issue next week. But they
Speaker 1: have to learn how to essentially put their foot on
Speaker 1: the throat of their opponents, right because the second half
Speaker 1: they barely score. They just they just ease up and
Speaker 1: they sort of play keep away. And it really could
Speaker 1: have and probably should have cost them in this game,
Speaker 1: because you're right, I mean that last drive Wilson got
Speaker 1: the ball back with you know, four or five minutes left,
Speaker 1: and you thought, okay, you can drive them right down
Speaker 1: and square the touchdown. So yeah, I have a feeling
Speaker 1: Ian that you and I are probably both going to
Speaker 1: be looking at the games next week similarly. But I agree,
Speaker 1: I was not impressed with this performance. And again, the
Speaker 1: Seahawks aren't that good a team. I mean, it's really Wilson.
Speaker 1: So the fact that the Packers wound up victorious in
Speaker 1: their home field by five points not like a huge
Speaker 1: sign that, Wow, this team really has what it takes.
Speaker 1: I'm certainly worried about them going into San Francisco next week,
Speaker 1: and we'll talk about that in a second, but before
Speaker 1: we do, I want to mind everyone about our giveaway.
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Speaker 1: enough about this past week, and let's move on to
Speaker 1: next week. The Chiefs are hosting the Titans. So the
Speaker 1: early consensus lines here, and I want to stress this,
Speaker 1: they're probably all over the point at the place this
Speaker 1: line in particular, I've seen differences of two points. But
Speaker 1: the consensus line I've got right now is the Chiefs
Speaker 1: laying seven and a half with the total at fifty
Speaker 1: one and a half. So again, I've seen this at
Speaker 1: nine and a half at some places when they open.
Speaker 1: I don't know where their gunment, but it's gonna move around.
Speaker 1: So bear that in mind. But for our purposes, we'll
Speaker 1: take it at the Chiefs laying seven and a half
Speaker 1: with the total at fifty one and a half, it's
Speaker 1: a really interesting game to me. I mean, they've obviously
Speaker 1: they've met before the Titans one thirty five, thirty two,
Speaker 1: although they probably did not deserve to win that game.
Speaker 1: But forget that for a second. Go back to the
Speaker 1: middle of the year. There became this formula for trying
Speaker 1: to beat the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes right, run the
Speaker 1: ball a ton, control the clock, keep Mahomes off the field.
Speaker 1: That's how the Colts did it when they won. That's
Speaker 1: how the Texans did it when they won. And that's
Speaker 1: really the exact forma that the Titans look to use
Speaker 1: in pretty much every game. And you look at this
Speaker 1: game with the Chiefs putting up fifty one, and you think,
Speaker 1: how is any defense supposed to stop Mahomes at this point?
Speaker 1: But the Titans just legitimately shut down what looked to
Speaker 1: be the most unstoppable offense in the NFL. So look,
Speaker 1: you've had a couple of minutes to digest this entire weekend.
Speaker 1: How do you feel here with the consensus line just
Speaker 1: over a touchdown and the big total at fifty one
Speaker 1: and a half.
Speaker 2: I absolutely love the Titans. I mean I touched on
Speaker 2: this earlier. I think it's the recency bias of seeing
Speaker 2: the Chiefs put up that many points is why the
Speaker 2: line is where it's at right now. The big thing
Speaker 2: I'm looking at, I mean, we have it. Like you mentioned,
Speaker 2: these two teams played earlier in the season, so we can.
Speaker 2: I mean it's gonna be different. They're gonna make coaching
Speaker 2: changes or strategy changes, i should say, heading into this game.
Speaker 2: But the big thing that I'm looking at when I
Speaker 2: look at the box score of their thirty five thirty
Speaker 2: two win over the Chiefs earlier in the season, Dereck
Speaker 2: Henry in that game twenty three carries one hundred and
Speaker 2: eighty eight yards two touchdowns. That's an average of eight
Speaker 2: point two yards per carrying that game. So you're given
Speaker 2: a team more than a touchdown worth of points in
Speaker 2: a game where they beat them earlier in the year,
Speaker 2: and their star player who they're leaning on now in
Speaker 2: the playoffs, just absolutely torch them. That doesn't make any
Speaker 2: sense to me, especially with I mean, the Titans have
Speaker 2: to be riding high right now, the amount of confidence
Speaker 2: they have to be feeling going into this game, after
Speaker 2: beating the Patriots, after beating the top team in the league,
Speaker 2: the Ravens. I mean, they are going to be a
Speaker 2: very confident team heading into this year. Now. When they
Speaker 2: did play early in the season, it was in Tennessee,
Speaker 2: so this time it is obviously going to be in
Speaker 2: Kansas City, so that might make a little bit of
Speaker 2: a difference. But I absolutely love the Titans at that number.
Speaker 2: I think I should lock that in soon because I
Speaker 2: think money might start to come in on the Titans
Speaker 2: once people get over the recency bias of seeing the
Speaker 2: Chiefs put up fifty one points there today. So I
Speaker 2: think it might be good to get in on the
Speaker 2: Titans early. As far as the total, I think I
Speaker 2: would have to lean. I would have to lean the over.
Speaker 2: I mean, Patrick mahomes with put up fifty fifty one
Speaker 2: points today and then Derek Henry is gonna get them
Speaker 2: a lot of a lot of yards and points there
Speaker 2: when they play as well, So I'd have to lean
Speaker 2: the over a little bit. It makes me a little
Speaker 2: bit nervous because anytime there's there's a team that runs
Speaker 2: the ball a lot, I think you want to look
Speaker 2: more at the under because the more you run the ball, obviously,
Speaker 2: the more clock you eat up, which is less time
Speaker 2: for points. But at that number where it's at right now,
Speaker 2: I would lean the over in that. So I like
Speaker 2: the Titans in the over.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like the Titans too, as long as it's
Speaker 1: above a touchdown. I do do you have any interest?
Speaker 1: By the way, I mean, the Titans are plus two
Speaker 1: eighty five on the money line. That doesn't really entice
Speaker 1: me there. I feel like the points, but I'm just
Speaker 1: wondering about you.
Speaker 2: Yeah, No, I wouldn't. I wouldn't take No. I mean
Speaker 2: I was on Titans plus ten against the Ravens and
Speaker 2: then hindsight, obviously I wish I took that huge is
Speaker 2: like a plus three fifty money line. So maybe I
Speaker 2: should learn from that mistake and sprinkle the money line
Speaker 2: a little bit this weekend. But no, I think I
Speaker 2: think I'll just stick with the with with with the
Speaker 2: points and you and you mentioned that briefly there too,
Speaker 2: as long as it stays at seven or above, that's
Speaker 2: where like the Titans. If it dips, blow that magic
Speaker 2: number of seven, and that's where I would be a
Speaker 2: little bit more cautious.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I completely agree. I above seven, I like the Titans.
Speaker 1: It's interesting because you mentioned it, so you think that this,
Speaker 1: as the week goes on, is probably going to come
Speaker 1: down then, right?
Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean maybe because I just think
Speaker 2: it opened up such a big line because of the
Speaker 2: game today. We saw the Chiefs put up fifty one
Speaker 2: points in three quarters, So I would think maybe people
Speaker 2: are going to start thinking about a little bit more too.
Speaker 2: Logically as the week goes on, and sharp money was
Speaker 2: probably going to come in on the Titans, I would think, so, yes, yes, yeah,
Speaker 2: I would think it's going to get closer closer, it's
Speaker 2: going to go lower as the week goes on.
Speaker 1: I don't know why. I guess I feel that this
Speaker 1: is the way it's going to go because you've got
Speaker 1: the Titans who have just knocked off the Patriots and
Speaker 1: the Ravens, so you feel like that the public would
Speaker 1: be on them. But I feel like the public is
Speaker 1: the Titan. You know, the public's going to just be
Speaker 1: enamored of the fifty one points right and Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: and just going to want to go all over the Chiefs.
Speaker 1: And I agree that the Sharps are probably going to
Speaker 1: be hitting the Titans and that's going to at least
Speaker 1: keep it in check. But yeah, I don't have a
Speaker 1: good feeling for but I agree with you that I'm
Speaker 1: gonna get a planet now while it's seven and a
Speaker 1: half because I do like that number, and it could
Speaker 1: you know, it's not gonna rise anywhere crazy. It's not
Speaker 1: gonna go up to like ten or anything like that.
Speaker 1: So you know, as long as you're above seven, you know,
Speaker 1: the difference between seven and a half eight eight and
Speaker 1: a half, it's not that big a deal. So I
Speaker 1: feel like locking in it now. And with the total
Speaker 1: look I to say it. I mean I went with
Speaker 1: the under this week, which was over by halftime, so
Speaker 1: it's certainly not something that I feel great about. I
Speaker 1: would still lean the under here, man, I mean I
Speaker 1: get it. I just I see this as more of
Speaker 1: you know, the Titans putting up a pretty big defensive
Speaker 1: effort going into this game, and you know, I could
Speaker 1: see it being close. It's probably not one the I'm
Speaker 1: going to pull the trigger on but at the opening number,
Speaker 1: despite what you know, the fact that the Chiefs basically
Speaker 1: just went over this number by themselves, I think I
Speaker 1: would still probably lean towards the under, but not enough
Speaker 1: to make a play on it. Forty nine Ers hosting
Speaker 1: the Packers, so their early consensus lines again the forty
Speaker 1: nine Ers laying seven with the total at forty five.
Speaker 1: Another rematch here. The previous game in Week twelve was
Speaker 1: a dominant performance by the Niners thirty seven to eight.
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times. George Kittle had one
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty nine yards. Look, it's a significant spread.
Speaker 1: Both these spreads are pretty significant for a conference. You know,
Speaker 1: seven points in a playoff game, it's no joke. I
Speaker 1: think I know how you feel here. I think I
Speaker 1: probably feel the same. But what are your thoughts here
Speaker 1: on the spread of seven with the total at forty five.
Speaker 2: Yeah, just just quickly mentioned two pretty big spreads for
Speaker 2: championship games. I'm gonna look into it tomorrow, but I
Speaker 2: wonder if this is the first time that both championship
Speaker 2: games have been lines of a touchdown or more. That's
Speaker 2: kind of interesting. But yes, I am definitely going with
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers here. I just think they're underrated
Speaker 2: and the Packers are overrated. I mean, I've said my
Speaker 2: piece about the Packers. I think they're the worst thirteen
Speaker 2: to three team ever. And now they're going on the road.
Speaker 2: They've got to go to San Francisco, where where they
Speaker 2: just they got walloped in San Francisco earlier in the season.
Speaker 2: I love the forty nine Ers. I love their coaching.
Speaker 2: I think this is another game where there's gonna be
Speaker 2: coaching advantage. I'm not a huge fan of Matt Lafleur,
Speaker 2: and I think that was part of the reason why
Speaker 2: they barely squeaked by the Seahawks today. I didn't love
Speaker 2: the game plan by Matt Lafleur, so in a coaching
Speaker 2: matchup between him and Kyle Shanahan as well. I love
Speaker 2: Kyle Shanahan and that coaching matchup. I just I don't
Speaker 2: see how the Packers are gonna be able to slow
Speaker 2: down the forty nine Ers, and then I don't see
Speaker 2: how the Packers are gonna score points either. So I
Speaker 2: mean the spreads at seven, I would even take the
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers close to at like nine, and a half.
Speaker 2: I would probably still take the forty nine ers. I
Speaker 2: might even take the forty nine ers if it was ten.
Speaker 2: So at seven, yes, give me that all day.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I don't see this dropping under a touchdown.
Speaker 1: If it does, I'm pushing all my chips into the
Speaker 1: middle on the forty nine ers for sure, if you
Speaker 1: get at six and a half or something like that.
Speaker 1: But I agree with you, I like it at seven.
Speaker 1: I think this is finally gonna be the game. I mean,
Speaker 1: we look, I mean you go back to the game
Speaker 1: they played against the nine Ers earlier and you were like,
Speaker 1: oh boy, this is not These two teams are not
Speaker 1: in the same class. Nothing has changed at all. And
Speaker 1: you know with the forty nine ers just being healthy.
Speaker 1: I mean the one thing people forget. They hadn't had
Speaker 1: a buy since week four. I mean, they were exhausted,
Speaker 1: they were banged up, they had that buy. They got healthy.
Speaker 1: Bosa is a maniac, and he's just you know, they
Speaker 1: don't have a second receiver the Packers. It's really really
Speaker 1: difficult to see the Packers winning this game, certainly, but
Speaker 1: keeping this game close. Man. So I agree with you
Speaker 1: at this point. I don't have a real good feel
Speaker 1: for the total. By the way, at forty five. I mean,
Speaker 1: you know, the first game was exactly forty five thirty
Speaker 1: seven eight, So I don't personally have any play on that.
Speaker 1: But in terms of the spread, yeah, I mean, and
Speaker 1: I'm not too worried by the way about where this
Speaker 1: is going. Like you said, it's not going to go
Speaker 1: to ten or anything like that, so I don't feel
Speaker 1: the big rush to get in if the public somehow
Speaker 1: becomes you know, Packers are a very public team. If
Speaker 1: the public somehow pushes this to six and a half,
Speaker 1: then I'd be all over it. So for me, I
Speaker 1: don't feel all that crazy about going after it. I'll
Speaker 1: probably put some on it at seven for now, but
Speaker 1: I don't feel crazy about going that because if it
Speaker 1: goes to seven and a half, it goes to eight whatever,
Speaker 1: not the big deal for me. But do you have
Speaker 1: any feeling on the total whatsoever?
Speaker 2: No, I'm with you. I won't be betting on the
Speaker 2: total at that number because I think, I honestly think,
Speaker 2: I mean, it sounds like an easy answer, but I
Speaker 2: honestly think it's gonna be a very similar score to
Speaker 2: what the regular season game was just because I think
Speaker 2: there are forty nine Ers offense is just a lot
Speaker 2: better than the Packers defense and their defense forty nine
Speaker 2: Ers defense a lot better than the Packers' offense thirty
Speaker 2: seven to eight in the regular season. I think it's
Speaker 2: gonna be similar. I just don't see the Packers. I
Speaker 2: mean the Packers. I think what they'll have to do
Speaker 2: on offense is they need to get Aaron Jones going,
Speaker 2: and they need to get him going early, and they
Speaker 2: need to get him going in more than just the
Speaker 2: running game as well. If they can get him in
Speaker 2: the past involved in the passing game a little bit,
Speaker 2: then that will take a little bit of the pressure
Speaker 2: off Davante Adams and not in them not having a
Speaker 2: second receiver that they can go too. So I mean,
Speaker 2: and it's always hard to discount Aaron Rodgers, one of
Speaker 2: the greatest quarterbacks of all time, obviously, but no, I
Speaker 2: would stay away from the total just because I think
Speaker 2: it's gonna be I think it's gonna be a similar
Speaker 2: to what it was last last game. So I think
Speaker 2: the forty nine Ers are gonna win by I don't
Speaker 2: think I think forty nine is gonna win by a lot.
Speaker 2: And I don't think the Packers are gonna score a
Speaker 2: lot of points, so yeah, I'll stay away from the total.
Speaker 1: Yeah, we we view this game very similarly. And again,
Speaker 1: I really think that if the Saints had managed to
Speaker 1: beat the Vikings, that the Saints would have come into
Speaker 1: Lambo and beat them, and you know, pretty you know,
Speaker 1: I think this was really the best that you know, God,
Speaker 1: I don't want to say it like this, but it
Speaker 1: just feels like a like a fraudulent season a little
Speaker 1: bit for the Packers.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: Again, they're not a thirteen to three team. They wind
Speaker 1: up drawing another team that's not all that good, you know,
Speaker 1: the Seahawks, as well as Russell Wilson gets them to play,
Speaker 1: they wind up getting a very favorable draw there. You know,
Speaker 1: they're a decent team, they're a solid team. They're a
Speaker 1: playoff team, but they're not a team that deserved really
Speaker 1: a BIGE, you know, obviously for the reasons that we discussed.
Speaker 1: And they're not a team that I feel like is
Speaker 1: a super Bowl caliber team. So I grew you go ahead.
Speaker 2: Yes, sorry, Well I was just gonna say I will
Speaker 2: say something about about the Packers positive. There is something
Speaker 2: to say about just being able to squeak out these
Speaker 2: just dirty, grimy close games. I mean, they do have
Speaker 2: a thirteen and three record. There is something you have
Speaker 2: to say for that. They didn't lose the close games.
Speaker 2: They they managed to win these dirty, grimy close games.
Speaker 2: So there is something to say for that. So if
Speaker 2: they can turn this into a slugfest with the forty
Speaker 2: nine ers, maybe Aaron Rodgers can pull it out. Yeah,
Speaker 2: but yeah, there's something to say for that.
Speaker 1: I don't want I don't want to hate mail from
Speaker 1: Packers that I picked them early on in our preseason
Speaker 1: episodes to win the division and everything like that. I
Speaker 1: love Aaron Rodgers. He's one of my favorite players of
Speaker 1: all time. They're a very very solid team. But I
Speaker 1: really do think that there's a class difference right now
Speaker 1: with the forty nine Ers and the Packers. So I
Speaker 1: do see this line creeping up sort of sounds like
Speaker 1: you do, and I'm not afraid to go after it
Speaker 1: because I don't think if they beat the forty nine ers,
Speaker 1: kudos to them, and I you know, I'll eat crow
Speaker 1: because you know, I really really it's it's very difficul
Speaker 1: well to see it happening. I could much to me
Speaker 1: I could so much easier to see the Titans beating
Speaker 1: the Chiefs than I could the Packers beating the forty
Speaker 1: nine ers A a way. I see right. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: that's how I say, Well, it should be fun. But
Speaker 1: that is it for today's show. Thanks a lot for
Speaker 1: joining me, Ian, especially on a Sunday night with very
Speaker 1: little time to think about the games. Did a great job.
Speaker 1: Remind everybody where they can find more of you in
Speaker 1: your work.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. The main area where you can find me
Speaker 2: is on Twitter at Ian mac Os, I A I
Speaker 2: N m ac Os. Also, obviously I worked for odd Shark.
Speaker 2: We also have a Monday to Friday live stream on YouTube,
Speaker 2: so just search odd Shark on YouTube. It's called Guys
Speaker 2: and Bets. I'm on that from Monday to Thursday as well,
Speaker 2: so check that out.
Speaker 1: Awesome, thanks again for coming on. I want to remind
Speaker 1: everyone about bet MGM, where you can get a risk
Speaker 1: free five hundred dollars bet if you sign up for
Speaker 1: the bet MGM Sports app using our promo code Harris,
Speaker 1: and don't forget to leave this review on Apple Podcasts
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Speaker 1: at Betting Pros doc to be entered into our Michael
Speaker 1: Thomas signed helmet giveaway. We'll be back on Thursday getting
Speaker 1: into some of our best bets for the Championship round.
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you that