WEBVTT - TechStuff Predicts 2016 0:00:04.800 --> 0:00:13.119 With technology with text stuff from Hey there and welcome 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:17.200 to text stuff. I'm Jonathan Strickland and joining me today 0:00:18.160 --> 0:00:21.400 in the hot seat, I as actar from c NE NET, 0:00:21.560 --> 0:00:24.079 I as my good friend, how are you? I'm good 0:00:24.120 --> 0:00:25.760 to see that I'm in is not too hot yet. 0:00:26.160 --> 0:00:27.800 Maybe by the end it might be because it might 0:00:27.800 --> 0:00:30.960 be panicking. Yeah, we're um, We're going to do the 0:00:31.160 --> 0:00:35.760 episode I look forward to all year long, which is 0:00:35.760 --> 0:00:38.519 the episode where I stick my neck out and usually 0:00:38.520 --> 0:00:41.120 have a guest also sticking his or her neck out 0:00:41.479 --> 0:00:44.279 to make predictions about what will happen in the following 0:00:44.320 --> 0:00:49.360 twelve months. And we're recording this episode on December two 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:53.120 thousand fifteen, although it's airing in January two thousand and sixteen. 0:00:53.320 --> 0:00:56.200 So I just want to throw the regular caveat out there. 0:00:56.960 --> 0:00:59.560 Some of the stuff we predict might already be the 0:00:59.600 --> 0:01:05.200 path by the time you hear it. Yeah, if some 0:01:05.240 --> 0:01:07.760 of these things come true, we can just say we 0:01:07.880 --> 0:01:10.039 knew it. We knew this was going to happen, and 0:01:10.080 --> 0:01:13.959 we didn't have any insider information whatsoever. These are guesses. Yeah, yeah, Now, 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.360 these are all wild stabs in the dark. And I 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:20.360 also told I as this before we started recording, I 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:23.959 decided that I'm going to make bigger predictions than I 0:01:24.000 --> 0:01:27.440 have in the past, because, for one, uh, playing it 0:01:27.520 --> 0:01:30.760 safe hasn't helped me. I I do not have a 0:01:30.800 --> 0:01:34.800 great record. If you're gonna go go big, that's right, 0:01:34.959 --> 0:01:38.520 we go bigger, go home, right? And I can't go home. 0:01:39.080 --> 0:01:41.360 They won't let me, so I have to go big. 0:01:42.480 --> 0:01:46.679 So we're gonna talk about some predictions and then maybe, 0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:50.880 you know, question those predictions, justify them, maybe even change 0:01:50.880 --> 0:01:54.960 our minds based upon the conversation we have. And I'm 0:01:55.000 --> 0:01:59.480 gonna go first. And my first prediction is probably if 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:01.600 it's in, might not be the craziest one I have. 0:02:01.680 --> 0:02:04.360 It might be the second craziest one I have. But 0:02:04.880 --> 0:02:13.200 my prediction is that in Microsoft will buy Yahoo's core business. Now, 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:15.600 for people who have been paying attention to the news, 0:02:15.639 --> 0:02:18.520 you've heard the rumors that the board of directors have 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:21.399 been thinking of selling off yah Who's core business, which 0:02:21.440 --> 0:02:25.040 hasn't really been profitable and quite some time, and holding 0:02:25.080 --> 0:02:30.560 on to its stake in ali Baba instead of being 0:02:30.680 --> 0:02:36.480 this kind of content slash search engine thing that Yahoo 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:40.280 has blossomed into or exploded into. However, you want to 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:43.400 think about it. So they're talking about the possibility of 0:02:43.440 --> 0:02:45.960 selling off that core business. But who would be in 0:02:46.000 --> 0:02:49.240 the market for that. It can't be Google, or at 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:53.000 least I don't think it could be because Google already 0:02:53.040 --> 0:02:56.760 has such a dominant hold in search. I don't think 0:02:56.760 --> 0:02:58.720 anyone would allow that to happen. It would become a 0:02:59.520 --> 0:03:03.160 more more of a monopoly than it already is. So 0:03:03.639 --> 0:03:07.000 could it possible possibly be Microsoft? I mean, Microsoft and 0:03:07.080 --> 0:03:11.000 Yahoo have teamed up in the past. Being was the 0:03:11.520 --> 0:03:14.519 search engine powering Yah who searched for a while. It's 0:03:14.560 --> 0:03:18.320 not like they had the best relationship ever, but I 0:03:18.360 --> 0:03:22.320 could see that being a possibility Now, I asked, what 0:03:22.400 --> 0:03:24.760 about you? Do you think I'm completely off base here? 0:03:24.800 --> 0:03:28.360 Do you think there's some other entity that's way more likely? Uh? 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:32.000 Or is it just that Microsoft would never even touch 0:03:32.080 --> 0:03:34.440 Yahoo with a tin foot poll? You know? I think 0:03:34.560 --> 0:03:37.800 I think Microsoft might be the wrong suitor for this 0:03:37.920 --> 0:03:41.240 because they do have Bing and Bing this year actually 0:03:41.800 --> 0:03:45.200 made revenue and so it's being a loser like it's 0:03:45.200 --> 0:03:47.839 been for years. It actually did something good and being 0:03:47.960 --> 0:03:52.560 is so we're baked into Windows ten that I don't 0:03:52.600 --> 0:03:54.640 think they need to muck with that too much. Also, yeah, 0:03:54.680 --> 0:03:57.520 who's got a lot of email kind of situations. They've 0:03:57.560 --> 0:04:00.680 got Tumbler, they've got Flicker, and Microsoft has a lot 0:04:00.680 --> 0:04:02.880 of those things already. So to buy those core assets, 0:04:02.880 --> 0:04:05.800 I think it would be duplicative. I'm thinking who might 0:04:05.840 --> 0:04:08.920 be a better suitor. It might be somebody like maybe 0:04:08.960 --> 0:04:13.480 a wireless carrier, Maybe somebody like Apple if they wanted 0:04:13.480 --> 0:04:16.280 to have a better search when it comes to their 0:04:16.320 --> 0:04:19.400 own internal search because they have such a beef with 0:04:19.440 --> 0:04:21.560 Google right now stale, even though it's a lot better 0:04:21.560 --> 0:04:24.360 than it used to be. But maybe even a like 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:27.839 a video company who needs a better search and content 0:04:27.960 --> 0:04:32.280 farm because between Tumbler between maybe even this is gonna 0:04:32.279 --> 0:04:34.360 sound nuts. I wasn't even thinking about this before we 0:04:34.440 --> 0:04:36.840 started the show. But maybe even Facebook because they could 0:04:36.920 --> 0:04:39.200 use a better search algorithm in general when it comes 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:42.440 to mining all of the data they have, if they 0:04:42.440 --> 0:04:44.839 could use Tumbler as an as an option, if they could, 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:47.640 you have Flicker, If they have this infrastructure that everybody exists, 0:04:47.920 --> 0:04:50.440 why not tack it on. That's those are great points. 0:04:50.520 --> 0:04:52.960 I mean, you make a very strong case for for 0:04:53.120 --> 0:04:57.960 other very realistic entities that could come into play here, 0:04:58.000 --> 0:05:01.680 and purchase up those those that core business if in fact, yeah, 0:05:01.680 --> 0:05:04.240 who does sell it. As of the time we're recording this, 0:05:04.320 --> 0:05:08.040 that has not actually happened yet, but could it could have. 0:05:08.360 --> 0:05:10.560 At least the ball could be rolling by the time 0:05:10.600 --> 0:05:14.000 this episode goes live. Uh. Those those are excellent points. 0:05:14.040 --> 0:05:17.520 I'm gonna stick by my Microsoft prediction because that way, 0:05:17.600 --> 0:05:23.119 when it becomes true and I review this episode. Uh 0:05:23.120 --> 0:05:25.320 and at the end of twenty sixteen, I'm going to 0:05:25.360 --> 0:05:28.760 sound like a genius. Well, the other thing is, yeah, 0:05:28.760 --> 0:05:31.839 who's board mentioned that this whole potential plan with a 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:34.400 spin off, yah, whose core business? It could take up 0:05:34.440 --> 0:05:37.440 to a year to make that happen, So maybe even 0:05:37.480 --> 0:05:41.320 more so if it does happen, let's say January, I'm 0:05:41.360 --> 0:05:44.280 gonna give you that one. Okay, that's fair. Yeah, that's nice. 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:48.719 That's very very a generous of you to allow me 0:05:48.800 --> 0:05:51.840 an extra month, particular least it's we're recording this one 0:05:51.880 --> 0:05:54.960 a month early exactly. Maybe we should be doing this 0:05:55.040 --> 0:05:56.960 in like a fiscal years and might maybe even tell 0:05:57.000 --> 0:06:00.000 April who knows, because there's no rules unless we make 0:06:00.080 --> 0:06:02.760 the rules right now, that's true. Uh, Well, I will 0:06:02.800 --> 0:06:07.200 say this that that if an entity purchases Yahoo's core 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:12.280 businesses before the end of that entity will most definitely 0:06:12.320 --> 0:06:18.440 be Microsoft that way. That way, I've planted my flag. 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:20.600 And if it's not, and it's one of the other 0:06:20.720 --> 0:06:23.440 entities that I has mentioned, that's gonna be great content 0:06:23.560 --> 0:06:25.560 for my wrap up show at the end of the year. 0:06:27.480 --> 0:06:32.120 All right, so what is your first prediction? Okay, unlike you, 0:06:32.160 --> 0:06:36.160 I'm gonna start off small but a little crazy. I'm 0:06:36.160 --> 0:06:38.360 gonna go three D printers are gonna become way more 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:42.159 mainstream next year. And this is tied into this big 0:06:42.200 --> 0:06:46.039 push that I've seen in camera technology. Intel has this 0:06:46.120 --> 0:06:48.760 real sense camera and what it allows people to do 0:06:48.800 --> 0:06:51.960 is or allows computers to do, is to sense things 0:06:52.040 --> 0:06:55.080 in three D space, and like, well, people are like, 0:06:55.080 --> 0:06:56.800 what's the use of that? Why would you care about 0:06:56.800 --> 0:06:58.560 being able to see three D space with I don't know, 0:06:58.600 --> 0:07:00.919 your cell phone camera or the camera in your laptop. 0:07:01.400 --> 0:07:03.320 So you can literally hold up an object and it's 0:07:03.440 --> 0:07:06.360 almost acting like a three D scanner, and so why 0:07:06.360 --> 0:07:08.600 would you ever need any of this stuff for three 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:11.840 D printing? That's what I'm saying. And a company like Amazon, 0:07:11.960 --> 0:07:15.080 so this is all very very three D printing. Amazon 0:07:15.120 --> 0:07:17.560 could introduce its own three D printer that they would 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:19.960 sell to you at a discount, so then you could 0:07:20.280 --> 0:07:23.040 buy schematics from them and print out stuff right at 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:26.480 your home like Amazon Prime Instant, so faster than a 0:07:26.520 --> 0:07:28.720 two hour delivery window, although it might take out a 0:07:28.720 --> 0:07:30.960 couple of hours to print out something large because three 0:07:31.040 --> 0:07:33.680 D printers aren't super fast. Do you think three D 0:07:33.720 --> 0:07:39.360 printers in the home would be mainstream next year? No? Um, 0:07:39.560 --> 0:07:42.200 let me let me justify that instead of just saying 0:07:42.240 --> 0:07:45.240 no and then moving on my next prediction. No. Uh. 0:07:45.440 --> 0:07:48.560 The reason why I say no, it's it's not because 0:07:49.200 --> 0:07:52.160 I don't see the potential there. I absolutely do see 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:56.000 the potential. I've also had experience with three D printers, 0:07:56.360 --> 0:07:58.559 like we have one in the office. I have worked 0:07:58.600 --> 0:08:02.760 with it. These are finnicky machines and you have to 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:05.480 have all the things working just right for it. You know, 0:08:05.520 --> 0:08:07.040 you have to have the heating plate at the right 0:08:07.080 --> 0:08:11.559 temperature so that the plastic adheres to it but doesn't melt. 0:08:12.360 --> 0:08:14.720 You have to have the extruder at the right temperature 0:08:14.760 --> 0:08:18.400 so that it the plastic flows at the proper viscosity. 0:08:18.440 --> 0:08:20.320 There are a lot of different things that it's it's 0:08:20.360 --> 0:08:24.480 not as user friendly as your basic plug in play 0:08:24.520 --> 0:08:28.960 printer is. There's a lot more variety going on there 0:08:29.000 --> 0:08:30.760 that that you have to pay really close attention to 0:08:30.840 --> 0:08:32.720 if you want to get the results you hope for. 0:08:33.200 --> 0:08:37.160 So my prediction would be my counter proposal to your 0:08:37.200 --> 0:08:40.560 prediction would be, We'll see a lot more three D 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:45.160 printing houses where you would send a three D printing 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:48.040 job to one of these houses, where there are people 0:08:48.080 --> 0:08:50.480 who have worked with the stuff and specialize with it, 0:08:51.000 --> 0:08:53.840 and the prices are gonna come down because the actual 0:08:53.880 --> 0:08:58.000 equipment prices the three D printers themselves, those prices will 0:08:58.040 --> 0:09:01.400 come down, So it won't be incredibly expensive for you 0:09:01.440 --> 0:09:04.400 to send a three D print job to a local 0:09:05.240 --> 0:09:08.959 UH group. It might not even be like a big company. 0:09:08.960 --> 0:09:12.040 It might be a small group of of students who 0:09:12.120 --> 0:09:15.440 are who go to a local technology school for example. 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:18.800 I'm using very specific examples because that's happening here in Atlanta. 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:22.760 We've got a whole bunch of UH student run businesses 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:25.280 that are using three D printers, and the students are 0:09:25.320 --> 0:09:29.280 all affiliated with Georgia Tech. And so I have actually 0:09:29.360 --> 0:09:31.560 used one of these services just this past year. I 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:37.240 had a special mask printed for a cosplay outfit and 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:39.280 h and so it was a three D printed mask, 0:09:40.000 --> 0:09:42.400 and and it was it was great. But I don't 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:46.200 see that slipping into the consumer market. I think there's 0:09:46.240 --> 0:09:50.000 going to be more of a prosumer market, more so 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:52.400 than there is now. I think it's gonna be bigger 0:09:52.440 --> 0:09:54.520 than it has been, But I don't think it's going 0:09:54.559 --> 0:09:57.040 to get to the point where your average Joe is 0:09:57.040 --> 0:09:58.640 going to go out there and buy a three D 0:09:58.760 --> 0:10:01.680 printer and be satisfied with the way it works, to 0:10:01.720 --> 0:10:04.679 the point where we're gonna see this kind of marketplace 0:10:04.720 --> 0:10:08.240 spring up on the level that you are suggesting. Okay, 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:10.920 you're making some really good arguments, and I'm gonna hearken 0:10:10.960 --> 0:10:13.479 back to my weasel language. It will become more mainstream. 0:10:14.400 --> 0:10:17.240 You're you're totally right by the way. Three D printers 0:10:17.280 --> 0:10:20.640 are finicky, finicky machines right now. It's not plug and 0:10:20.679 --> 0:10:23.240 play like an ink jet, which has you pulling out 0:10:23.280 --> 0:10:26.400 your hair for different reasons. But when it comes to 0:10:26.760 --> 0:10:29.600 this kind of three D printing world, I agree with 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:31.800 you with the idea of three D printing houses. I 0:10:31.800 --> 0:10:33.920 believe Staples has some services where you can do this. 0:10:34.200 --> 0:10:38.520 I'm sure those will be the faster, more ornate, or 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:41.440 better quality stuff you can get. But I think I 0:10:41.440 --> 0:10:45.240 still think the next year we're gonna have not the 0:10:45.320 --> 0:10:47.400 dot matrix style printers where we're like, this is kind 0:10:47.440 --> 0:10:49.880 of chanky, it doesn't really work, but it's the beginning days. 0:10:50.240 --> 0:10:51.839 We already had the beginning days of these three D 0:10:51.880 --> 0:10:54.120 printers being low cost. I think we're going to have 0:10:55.080 --> 0:10:58.280 more consumer friendly versions. Now they might be for prosumers, 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:00.760 they might be a little bit expensive, but inc it's 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:03.120 finally going to make its break because it's had years 0:11:03.160 --> 0:11:06.840 to actually mature and it's still isn't dead, And I 0:11:06.840 --> 0:11:09.120 think the idea of people could have Wait a second, 0:11:09.200 --> 0:11:11.440 I can print a case from my phone, or I 0:11:11.480 --> 0:11:14.719 can add different a lego piece that's missing. I think 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:17.800 these ideas are becoming more mainstream, so that might drive 0:11:17.800 --> 0:11:21.880 a demand. But as it's more mainstream, not like it's 0:11:21.880 --> 0:11:24.360 gonna be like the laser printer you have, So you 0:11:24.400 --> 0:11:27.080 could you could argue the market will double, but the 0:11:27.120 --> 0:11:30.880 markets like five thousand units units, that's not the big 0:11:30.880 --> 0:11:35.280 a deal. If these statistics continue, disco will be the best. 0:11:35.880 --> 0:11:40.160 It will be the only music of past I know. 0:11:40.760 --> 0:11:45.080 But Anyway, we're on another We're on another show where 0:11:45.080 --> 0:11:47.920 we constantly are striving to be the best podcast of 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:50.440 two thousand fourteen. So we're all about living in the past. 0:11:50.760 --> 0:11:53.800 We'll get there. Yeah, yep, one of these days. All right, Well, 0:11:53.840 --> 0:11:58.120 that's that's that's interesting. With that caveat, I can I 0:11:58.200 --> 0:12:04.400 can lean more towards supporting your your prediction because uh, 0:12:04.520 --> 0:12:08.920 it definitely creates more perspective on what you were getting 0:12:08.920 --> 0:12:12.880 at um and I agreed as Weasley. So my next 0:12:12.920 --> 0:12:19.240 one is probably the safest of my predictions, which is 0:12:19.240 --> 0:12:22.800 that Apple is going to start offering up more products that, 0:12:23.440 --> 0:12:27.600 at least on first glance, are going to seem further 0:12:27.760 --> 0:12:32.920 removed from the vision of Steve Jobs. So an example 0:12:32.960 --> 0:12:35.480 of this in our and in this past year was 0:12:35.600 --> 0:12:39.760 the iPad pro and the the pencil peripheral, which is 0:12:39.840 --> 0:12:45.400 essentially a stylus, which Steve Jobs famously dismissed upon the 0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.800 uh the introduction of the iPad, He essentially said, who 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:52.720 wants to deal with the stylus and had had pretty 0:12:52.800 --> 0:12:57.600 much all but completely dismissed the notion entirely. And now 0:12:57.640 --> 0:13:02.200 Apple has one. And whenever this happens, people point out 0:13:02.960 --> 0:13:05.320 you know, that's not really what Steve Jobs said, or 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:08.520 that's not how Steve Jobs would do it. Mine argument 0:13:08.600 --> 0:13:11.520 is that this year we're going to see more things 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:16.080 that are truly a step away from what Steve Jobs 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:20.680 quote unquote would have done. Uh. And that's not a 0:13:20.720 --> 0:13:25.040 bad thing, because I don't think a company can continually 0:13:25.240 --> 0:13:29.599 hold itself accountable to the ideals of someone who is 0:13:29.640 --> 0:13:34.360 no longer around m hm. So I will be one 0:13:34.360 --> 0:13:37.680 of those finicky people because here's here's what I remember. 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:40.880 The introduction of this this whole stylist nonsense with Apple 0:13:40.920 --> 0:13:43.240 and Steve Jobs in particular, he said that if you 0:13:43.280 --> 0:13:45.640 had a stylus, basically, then they're doing it wrong, and 0:13:45.679 --> 0:13:47.760 not that it was. At the time, the stylist was 0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:51.160 a requirement of smartphones and you shouldn't need this stylus 0:13:51.200 --> 0:13:53.439 at this point is an accessory. It's a theoretic. It's 0:13:53.440 --> 0:13:55.240 not against it. But there are a lot of design 0:13:55.640 --> 0:13:59.200 choices these days that if people going Steve wouldn't approve 0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:04.000 that look because that looks like some kind of horrible compromise. Yeah, yeah, 0:14:04.040 --> 0:14:06.480 like they like we In my notes, I mentioned the 0:14:06.520 --> 0:14:10.880 I Hump battery case, which you came across a different 0:14:10.960 --> 0:14:14.040 name for that, right, Yeah, b gr Boy Jeans Report 0:14:14.080 --> 0:14:18.000 had the nickname Hunchback of Cupertino, which I found quite 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:21.240 creative and it's quite accurate for the design of the 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:24.600 Apple Smart battery case cover, whatever the heck it's called. Yeah, 0:14:24.680 --> 0:14:27.040 and that's if you haven't seen it. It creates this 0:14:27.600 --> 0:14:31.640 bulge that sticks out the back of the case, and 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:36.840 so it really destroys the profile of the iPhone, and 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.280 I have a feeling that that would have been something 0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:43.800 that would have stuck in Steve Jobs's craw so to speak, 0:14:44.360 --> 0:14:48.680 destroys or makes you appreciate the slim profile without better 0:14:48.720 --> 0:14:52.480 I don't think. Sorry, I'm just my devil's advocate there. 0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:54.160 I agree with you. I think the styling on this 0:14:54.520 --> 0:14:57.480 un certain objects are not exactly as beautiful. That could 0:14:57.560 --> 0:15:01.200 be actually an issue for the eye who's in charge 0:15:01.200 --> 0:15:03.800 of software and hardware at this point. So maybe he 0:15:03.840 --> 0:15:07.600 stretched a little thin. That could be an actual structural 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:09.400 issue with an Apple. But that's a whole other thing. 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:11.280 And as we're talking, there's a whole I believe a 0:15:11.360 --> 0:15:13.640 restructuring of Apple and new CEO, a whole bunch of 0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:16.000 things going on. Yeah, I think I think the real 0:15:16.320 --> 0:15:20.440 thing is that Steve Jobs is not walking around Apple 0:15:20.480 --> 0:15:27.400 headquarters inspiring terror and all of his employees, Like when 0:15:27.400 --> 0:15:31.119 you think I could get fired on any given day. 0:15:31.720 --> 0:15:36.240 It creates a different environment. It might stop certain designs 0:15:36.240 --> 0:15:40.280 from maybe getting past the drawing board, like no, this 0:15:40.320 --> 0:15:42.200 isn't gonna work, versus going, okay, wait a second, we 0:15:42.240 --> 0:15:43.840 do have these batteries that are shaped a certain way. 0:15:43.840 --> 0:15:47.040 Maybe we can repurpose them and get a good mark up. 0:15:47.160 --> 0:15:50.400 Because in the world of business, accessories make usually there's 0:15:50.400 --> 0:15:53.800 a higher profit margin on accessories versus the actual hardware, 0:15:53.800 --> 0:15:57.200 although Apple's famous were making very high profits on their hardware. 0:15:57.400 --> 0:16:00.480 But yeah, I could see things potentially maybe be even 0:16:01.280 --> 0:16:04.840 that mythical. Nobody wants to have gorilla arm, this idea 0:16:04.840 --> 0:16:08.600 of the iPad and the MacBook finally merging, because I 0:16:08.640 --> 0:16:10.680 believe even Tim Cook says we're not going to do that. 0:16:10.800 --> 0:16:12.440 Then again, Apple is quite good. It's in the past 0:16:12.440 --> 0:16:14.960 saying we're never gonna have this product to do that 0:16:15.040 --> 0:16:17.720 thing like an iPod with video. Nobody wants an iPod 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:20.600 with video, so they made an iPod with video. So 0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:23.600 there's no We're never gonna make a tablet We saw 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:25.760 how that worked out, So it doesn't necessarily mean just 0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:28.240 because they said we're not going to do something that 0:16:28.320 --> 0:16:29.880 they won't do it and say, oh, this is why 0:16:29.960 --> 0:16:33.600 we waited, because it's much better now. Also, they'll say 0:16:33.720 --> 0:16:37.120 now you want it, they in, they wave their hand 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:40.720 and yes, exactly, they do the force mind trick on you. 0:16:40.840 --> 0:16:43.760 All right, so what's your next one? Okay, wearables will 0:16:43.760 --> 0:16:46.760 be better. This is another incremental kind of thing. I 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:51.000 think that we've had a real interesting kind of live 0:16:51.160 --> 0:16:54.240 beta test of smart watches the past couple of years. 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:57.480 We had the Android where hitting the market ahead of 0:16:57.520 --> 0:17:00.680 ahead of the Apple Watch, Apple Watched original version being 0:17:00.720 --> 0:17:03.560 a little bit clunky, with a UI that people had 0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:07.520 to learn, which is very not intuitive at first, this 0:17:07.600 --> 0:17:10.480 digital crown kind of thing. Samsung's got their Gears two 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:14.080 with a very cool kind of circular iPod like circle 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:18.200 um interface wheel. I think next year is the year 0:17:18.240 --> 0:17:21.639 that all of those small issues with UI, all the 0:17:21.680 --> 0:17:25.520 issues with battery life, the true actual application of why 0:17:25.560 --> 0:17:27.680 on earth would you want a screen on your wrist? 0:17:28.320 --> 0:17:30.400 That stuff is actually going to be figured out next 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:33.080 year and there's going to be a compelling reason to 0:17:33.200 --> 0:17:36.000 have a smart watch. And while I'm saying wearables in 0:17:36.040 --> 0:17:39.359 general will get better, I'm thinking the fitness devices, like 0:17:39.480 --> 0:17:43.520 the fitbits, the misfits, all those little things, they will 0:17:43.560 --> 0:17:47.320 go maybe more and more simple, where these devices can 0:17:47.359 --> 0:17:50.040 handle just the fitness tracking and it talks to either 0:17:50.080 --> 0:17:52.000 your watch or talks to your phone, and it's not 0:17:52.040 --> 0:17:55.960 necessarily trying to be it's one true thing. I don't 0:17:55.960 --> 0:17:59.520 think the fitbits surge, those kind of smart watch hybrid 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:01.720 things are gonna do well. So I think that the 0:18:01.720 --> 0:18:05.520 fitness tractors get dumber, smart watches get better. I got you. 0:18:05.720 --> 0:18:07.679 So that way, you end up having a more of 0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:11.679 a low cost market for your fitness trackers because presumably 0:18:11.720 --> 0:18:14.400 they won't be as expensive. They'll be simpler devices. So 0:18:14.680 --> 0:18:17.959 if all you wanted was something to help track your activity, 0:18:18.040 --> 0:18:20.000 then you get one of those and you're spending less 0:18:20.040 --> 0:18:22.280 money per unit. But if you want something that has 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:26.040 a lot more applicability in various situations, then you might 0:18:26.040 --> 0:18:28.760 go for more of a higher end thing, a smart 0:18:28.800 --> 0:18:33.040 watch that incorporates those features as well as other ones. 0:18:33.359 --> 0:18:35.560 It's the middle ground where you're still to see that 0:18:35.640 --> 0:18:39.280 kind of filter out because there won't be as much 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:42.679 uh you know, why why go for something that's kind 0:18:42.720 --> 0:18:45.200 of good if you could go for a smart watch, 0:18:45.640 --> 0:18:47.000 you know. And one of the things I've seen this 0:18:47.080 --> 0:18:50.879 year was there's like a device called the Move. It's 0:18:50.920 --> 0:18:53.000 this little disc that you can have on your wrist 0:18:53.040 --> 0:18:56.080 and it can determine whether you're how you're moving. But 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:58.040 what they recommend is if you have to, it can 0:18:58.080 --> 0:19:01.280 really do these excellent metrics for things like a boxing 0:19:01.880 --> 0:19:05.480 exercise or workout. So maybe instead of these devices being 0:19:05.520 --> 0:19:08.320 all in one wonders, it's that they're really just sensors 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.080 that you have on yourself. So you realize, Okay, the 0:19:11.080 --> 0:19:13.840 smart watch is great because it's the actual brain versus 0:19:13.880 --> 0:19:15.320 your phone because you don't want to carry you phone 0:19:15.320 --> 0:19:19.320 necessarily getting larger. It's very awkward to keep a phone 0:19:19.400 --> 0:19:21.360 strapped to your arm. I've seen people run with them. 0:19:21.359 --> 0:19:24.280 I think that's really odd. But a smart watch acting 0:19:24.280 --> 0:19:27.320 as this intermediary brain for all these other sensors to 0:19:27.400 --> 0:19:32.119 get actual accurate data because okay, were you erasing furiously 0:19:32.160 --> 0:19:35.119 with your Apple pencil or were you doing jumping jacks? 0:19:35.720 --> 0:19:38.280 Does the device No? I don't know, So that's that 0:19:38.359 --> 0:19:41.440 kind of thing. Yeah, No, that's interesting. I pretty much 0:19:41.440 --> 0:19:45.240 agree with you. I think, um, I think we will 0:19:45.320 --> 0:19:48.800 see that sort of improvement. I hope we will see 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:54.440 smart watches that are compelling enough where even people like myself, 0:19:54.480 --> 0:19:57.040 like I own a Pebble. I bought a pebble early on, 0:19:57.160 --> 0:20:01.879 and I did so knowing the limitations of the technology. 0:20:01.960 --> 0:20:03.800 I knew what it was capable of doing, and I 0:20:03.880 --> 0:20:06.399 knew what it wasn't going to do, and I was 0:20:06.440 --> 0:20:08.960 fine with that. But for a lot of people, when 0:20:08.960 --> 0:20:11.200 they get into the idea of buying a smart watch, 0:20:11.240 --> 0:20:14.840 they don't really know what the watch can and can't do, 0:20:15.000 --> 0:20:18.800 and uh, what it's like to actually use one, and 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:21.719 so you get this disconnect from what they were expecting 0:20:21.800 --> 0:20:24.480 and what they actually get when they purchase one. I 0:20:24.480 --> 0:20:27.320 would like to see that gap decrease in two thousand 0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:31.040 and sixteen. Uh. My hope is that by two thousand seventeen, 0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:35.720 you compare something like a smart watch with another device 0:20:35.880 --> 0:20:39.680 that's akin to the Microsoft Hollow lens, and then get 0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:44.560 holographic images displayed above the watch when you look down 0:20:45.160 --> 0:20:47.840 because the two are working together, and then you get 0:20:47.880 --> 0:20:51.080 like the three D representation of someone's head as they 0:20:51.119 --> 0:20:55.800 talked to you. All Superman of course that's you you 0:20:55.800 --> 0:20:57.879 would want to do when you're walking on the sidewalk 0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:01.080 with floating and disembodied heads. Look, if I'm not paying 0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:03.639 attention to a so whether or not the sign says 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:07.399 walk or don't walk already, it's not gonna kill me 0:21:07.680 --> 0:21:13.119 faster as long as there's some kind of collision detection 0:21:14.160 --> 0:21:17.159 center that you have. I can just imagine text popping 0:21:17.200 --> 0:21:22.920 up and says you're gonna die now. It's like, would 0:21:22.920 --> 0:21:25.919 you like to close all your accounts right now or 0:21:26.119 --> 0:21:28.879 deliver your password over to your next You have one 0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:30.800 of two options. You're like, oh, wait a minute, this 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:32.880 is this is the death notice, and maybe I should 0:21:32.920 --> 0:21:37.640 get on the street. Uh yeah, no. I I always 0:21:37.800 --> 0:21:41.399 advocate for the responsible use of technology. I am one 0:21:41.400 --> 0:21:44.720 of those people who I will not have my phone 0:21:44.800 --> 0:21:47.600 out as I'm walking across the street. If I'm on 0:21:47.640 --> 0:21:51.200 the sidewalk, maybe, but definitely not on the street. And 0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:53.880 that being said, even as someone who has occasionally used 0:21:53.920 --> 0:21:57.720 a phone on the sidewalk. Yes, I have collided with 0:21:57.760 --> 0:22:01.440 a telephone pole it has opened. I have yet to 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:05.439 do that. I have gotten very close to telephone poles, 0:22:05.480 --> 0:22:08.760 far too close, but not in any rapid speed. Well 0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:11.560 that's good. That's good. Let's hope that that prediction like 0:22:11.600 --> 0:22:14.920 that that or that trend continues through to predict I 0:22:15.000 --> 0:22:17.000 predicted because I said that on this podcast. I'm going 0:22:17.000 --> 0:22:21.800 to smack into something. All right, Well, here's another super 0:22:21.880 --> 0:22:25.200 crazy prediction. Now. My last one was an Apple prediction 0:22:25.240 --> 0:22:29.600