1 00:00:15,370 --> 00:00:29,490 Speaker 1: Pushkin. The Grand Barracks at Scutari and Istanbul were said 2 00:00:29,530 --> 00:00:31,410 Speaker 1: to be the largest in the world when they were 3 00:00:31,410 --> 00:00:35,610 Speaker 1: completed in the eighteen twenties. By the eighteen fifties, a 4 00:00:35,730 --> 00:00:39,210 Speaker 1: grim war would turn them into the world's largest hospital. 5 00:00:39,930 --> 00:00:44,930 Speaker 1: Two inexperienced eyes, the Scutari buildings were magnificent to ours. 6 00:00:45,250 --> 00:00:50,170 Speaker 1: In their first state. They were truly whited, sepulchers, pest houses. 7 00:00:51,530 --> 00:00:55,250 Speaker 1: Those are the words of a British nurse named Florence Nightingale. 8 00:00:55,930 --> 00:00:59,410 Speaker 1: She sailed out to Istanbul during the Crimean War, a 9 00:00:59,530 --> 00:01:03,490 Speaker 1: pointless conflict between Russia and an alliance including the British. 10 00:01:04,450 --> 00:01:08,050 Speaker 1: Nightingale arrived late in eighteen fifty four the small team 11 00:01:08,090 --> 00:01:11,490 Speaker 1: of nurses. Their task was to assist in the care 12 00:01:11,570 --> 00:01:15,010 Speaker 1: of wounded British soldiers coming back from the battlefront to 13 00:01:15,090 --> 00:01:19,490 Speaker 1: the hastily converted barracks hospital at Scutari. What did they 14 00:01:19,490 --> 00:01:23,650 Speaker 1: discover waiting for them? Oh, you gentlemen of England can 15 00:01:23,690 --> 00:01:26,890 Speaker 1: have little idea from reading the newspapers of the horror 16 00:01:27,050 --> 00:01:31,010 Speaker 1: and misery of operating upon these dying and exhausted men. 17 00:01:31,770 --> 00:01:35,170 Speaker 1: That this is the Kingdom of Hell. No one can doubt. 18 00:01:36,890 --> 00:01:40,650 Speaker 1: Within days of her arrival. With fewer than forty nurses, 19 00:01:41,210 --> 00:01:44,890 Speaker 1: hundreds of casualties started arriving every day from the fighting 20 00:01:44,890 --> 00:01:49,290 Speaker 1: in the Crimean Peninsula. These men were bleeding from abdominal wounds, 21 00:01:49,730 --> 00:01:54,170 Speaker 1: their faces black with gunpowder and mud, their bodies crawling 22 00:01:54,210 --> 00:01:57,970 Speaker 1: with vermin. After each man died, he'd be stitched up 23 00:01:57,970 --> 00:02:00,810 Speaker 1: in his own blanket and carried to a mass grave, 24 00:02:01,530 --> 00:02:05,090 Speaker 1: making space for the next to take his bed. As 25 00:02:05,130 --> 00:02:09,010 Speaker 1: for the hospital itself, Nightingale was appalled by the conditions, 26 00:02:09,170 --> 00:02:13,130 Speaker 1: the shambolic organization. The heating system didn't work and there 27 00:02:13,170 --> 00:02:16,930 Speaker 1: was no clean water. The army supply chain sent the 28 00:02:16,970 --> 00:02:19,570 Speaker 1: wrong equipment to the wrong place at the wrong time 29 00:02:19,730 --> 00:02:23,130 Speaker 1: as a matter of routine, and they also seemed to 30 00:02:23,210 --> 00:02:27,090 Speaker 1: delight in refusing to deal with Nightingale, a woman in 31 00:02:27,090 --> 00:02:32,610 Speaker 1: a man's world. No mops, no plates, no wooden trays, 32 00:02:32,610 --> 00:02:37,410 Speaker 1: no slippers, no shoebrushes, no blacking, no knives and forks, 33 00:02:37,450 --> 00:02:40,650 Speaker 1: no spoons, no scissors for the cutting of men's hair, 34 00:02:40,850 --> 00:02:45,570 Speaker 1: which is literally alive. No basins, no toweling, no chloride 35 00:02:45,570 --> 00:02:52,450 Speaker 1: of lime. What unfolded that winter was a catastrophe. In 36 00:02:52,570 --> 00:02:56,530 Speaker 1: January eighteen fifty five, the British army in Crimea lost 37 00:02:56,610 --> 00:02:59,850 Speaker 1: one man in ten to the ravages of diseases such 38 00:02:59,890 --> 00:03:03,290 Speaker 1: as dysentery and cholera. Many of them died at the 39 00:03:03,330 --> 00:03:08,530 Speaker 1: hospitals in Scutari. Infectious disease tore the British Army to 40 00:03:08,610 --> 00:03:13,650 Speaker 1: shred back in the UK, the reputation of the generals 41 00:03:13,650 --> 00:03:19,890 Speaker 1: and politicians was also in tatters. One figure alone emerged 42 00:03:19,930 --> 00:03:25,850 Speaker 1: with reputation intact. Florence Nightingale, the leader of the nurses 43 00:03:25,850 --> 00:03:29,570 Speaker 1: in istan Bull, was celebrated as the Lady with the Lamp, 44 00:03:30,210 --> 00:03:34,610 Speaker 1: a near religious icon of gentleness and dedication, and the 45 00:03:34,650 --> 00:03:39,250 Speaker 1: most famous woman in the British Empire. Except Queen Victoria herself. 46 00:03:39,930 --> 00:03:44,290 Speaker 1: There is not one of England's proudest and purest daughters 47 00:03:44,330 --> 00:03:47,930 Speaker 1: who at this moment stands on so high a pinnacle 48 00:03:48,530 --> 00:03:52,730 Speaker 1: as Florence Nightingale. The soldiers loved her too. If there 49 00:03:52,810 --> 00:03:56,210 Speaker 1: is any angels on earth, she is one. What glory 50 00:03:56,290 --> 00:03:59,450 Speaker 1: to see her delicate form gliding about amongst hundreds of 51 00:03:59,530 --> 00:04:02,770 Speaker 1: great rough soldiers. How to say the looks of love 52 00:04:02,850 --> 00:04:06,290 Speaker 1: and gratitude that they cast on her beloved face. It 53 00:04:06,330 --> 00:04:09,410 Speaker 1: would be a brave man at dare insult would not 54 00:04:09,410 --> 00:04:13,370 Speaker 1: give a penny furries chance. In May eighteen fifty five, 55 00:04:13,810 --> 00:04:18,570 Speaker 1: with conditions at her hospital's improving, Florence Nightingale sailed to 56 00:04:18,610 --> 00:04:22,130 Speaker 1: the front in Crimea, where she was moved both by 57 00:04:22,130 --> 00:04:25,530 Speaker 1: the spectacle and by the devotion of the men. The 58 00:04:25,570 --> 00:04:28,650 Speaker 1: men of the thirty ninth Regiment turned out and gave 59 00:04:28,810 --> 00:04:33,890 Speaker 1: Florence Nightingale three times three. As I rode away. There 60 00:04:33,930 --> 00:04:38,770 Speaker 1: was nothing empty in that chair. Florence Nightingale was becoming 61 00:04:38,770 --> 00:04:42,690 Speaker 1: a saint, but the battle with disease that had shaped 62 00:04:42,730 --> 00:04:46,850 Speaker 1: her reputation was about to take a sudden turn. On 63 00:04:46,970 --> 00:04:50,530 Speaker 1: the thirteenth of May, a few days after arriving in Crimea, 64 00:04:50,970 --> 00:04:55,090 Speaker 1: and just a day after her thirty fifth birthday, she collapsed. 65 00:04:56,210 --> 00:05:00,290 Speaker 1: The room was quickly spread around the British Army. Florence 66 00:05:00,370 --> 00:05:07,010 Speaker 1: Nightingale was dying. I'm Tim Harford and you're listening to 67 00:05:07,170 --> 00:05:32,490 Speaker 1: cautionary tales. Even today, it is as a nurse that 68 00:05:32,690 --> 00:05:37,490 Speaker 1: Florence Nightingale is revered in Britain. Twenty five years ago, 69 00:05:37,850 --> 00:05:41,850 Speaker 1: my mother took her last breath in a Nightingale hospice. 70 00:05:42,850 --> 00:05:46,410 Speaker 1: Nightingale's face adorned British bank notes and the front cover 71 00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:50,890 Speaker 1: of magazines during the COVID nineteen pandemic, all hail the 72 00:05:51,010 --> 00:05:55,810 Speaker 1: handwashing Queen, and we even named our emergency COVID hospitals 73 00:05:56,170 --> 00:06:03,090 Speaker 1: the Nightingale Hospitals. Nightingale is the ultimate nursing icon. It's 74 00:06:03,090 --> 00:06:05,770 Speaker 1: as though she had died the day she collapsed in 75 00:06:05,850 --> 00:06:09,170 Speaker 1: Crimea in May eighteen fifty five at the age of 76 00:06:09,210 --> 00:06:12,570 Speaker 1: thirty five. Her mission as a nurse had been accomplished, 77 00:06:12,610 --> 00:06:15,210 Speaker 1: her march to heaven was assured, and there was nothing 78 00:06:15,250 --> 00:06:19,410 Speaker 1: more to be said, which is strange because despite the 79 00:06:19,490 --> 00:06:24,530 Speaker 1: trauma and the sickness staying with her, Nightingale lived until 80 00:06:24,570 --> 00:06:28,210 Speaker 1: she was ninety years old, and she didn't bask in 81 00:06:28,250 --> 00:06:31,730 Speaker 1: her celebrity nor retire to her country home. She had 82 00:06:31,770 --> 00:06:35,210 Speaker 1: a much bigger battle to fight, one woman and a 83 00:06:35,290 --> 00:06:39,370 Speaker 1: hand picked team of geeks versus the entire military and 84 00:06:39,530 --> 00:06:43,410 Speaker 1: medical establishment of the country, with hundreds of thousands of 85 00:06:43,490 --> 00:06:48,090 Speaker 1: lives at stake. That huge fight is what this cautionary 86 00:06:48,130 --> 00:06:53,690 Speaker 1: tale is about. That and the strangely modern weapon she used. 87 00:06:55,010 --> 00:06:59,130 Speaker 1: Because Florence Nightingale was not only a nurse, she was also, 88 00:06:59,530 --> 00:07:02,850 Speaker 1: and I mean this as a most sincere compliment, a 89 00:07:03,090 --> 00:07:08,130 Speaker 1: total nerd. She became a statistician, the first female Fellow 90 00:07:08,130 --> 00:07:11,610 Speaker 1: of the Royalty Called Society, and an honorary member of 91 00:07:11,650 --> 00:07:16,650 Speaker 1: the American Statistical Association. She was a master of data visualization. 92 00:07:17,130 --> 00:07:20,090 Speaker 1: If you wanted to be dismissive, and some people do, 93 00:07:20,570 --> 00:07:23,450 Speaker 1: you'd say she was very good at drawing pretty diagrams. 94 00:07:24,090 --> 00:07:28,690 Speaker 1: But those pretty diagrams change the world. This is the 95 00:07:28,730 --> 00:07:32,330 Speaker 1: story of how to fight for a public health revolution 96 00:07:33,050 --> 00:07:37,730 Speaker 1: armed with a souped up pie chart. I don't need 97 00:07:37,770 --> 00:07:42,250 Speaker 1: to tell you how ubiquitous data visualization is. Everywhere we look, 98 00:07:42,570 --> 00:07:46,250 Speaker 1: whether we check social media, turn on rolling news, or 99 00:07:46,250 --> 00:07:49,970 Speaker 1: flip through a newspaper, we see graphs and charts, flashy 100 00:07:50,010 --> 00:07:53,930 Speaker 1: pictures of data designed to persuade us of something. They're 101 00:07:53,930 --> 00:07:57,530 Speaker 1: not just decorations. These graphs push and pull us into 102 00:07:57,570 --> 00:08:02,050 Speaker 1: taking high stakes decisions. COVID nineteen reminded us of just 103 00:08:02,330 --> 00:08:05,930 Speaker 1: how high the stakes can be. People have lived or 104 00:08:06,090 --> 00:08:09,410 Speaker 1: died because of the decisions they've made after king at 105 00:08:09,410 --> 00:08:13,370 Speaker 1: a chart on Facebook. That's why I wanted to understand 106 00:08:13,490 --> 00:08:18,210 Speaker 1: what Florence Nightingale did with graphs and how she did it. 107 00:08:18,250 --> 00:08:21,450 Speaker 1: But the deeper eye went into the Florence Nightingale archives 108 00:08:21,730 --> 00:08:25,570 Speaker 1: the stranger the story became, and it raises a question. 109 00:08:26,050 --> 00:08:30,010 Speaker 1: If graphs are so powerful, shouldn't we worry about how 110 00:08:30,050 --> 00:08:40,410 Speaker 1: that power is used. From the hospital in Scutari, Florence, 111 00:08:40,490 --> 00:08:45,450 Speaker 1: Nightingale had tirelessly lobbied for support and assistance, expertly dealing 112 00:08:45,450 --> 00:08:47,890 Speaker 1: with the press and her political contacts to get what 113 00:08:47,970 --> 00:08:52,090 Speaker 1: she needed, and in March eighteen fifty five came a 114 00:08:52,170 --> 00:08:56,770 Speaker 1: turning point. A sanitary commission arrived from Britain with the 115 00:08:56,850 --> 00:09:00,210 Speaker 1: task of cleaning up the hospitals in Scutari. There was 116 00:09:00,250 --> 00:09:03,410 Speaker 1: a lot of cleaning to do. Over the following weeks. 117 00:09:03,450 --> 00:09:06,290 Speaker 1: They discovered that the drains leading away from the Barrack 118 00:09:06,370 --> 00:09:10,850 Speaker 1: hospital were blocked effectively, meaning the hospital sat on a cesspool. 119 00:09:11,490 --> 00:09:14,250 Speaker 1: The main water pipe supplying part of the hospital was 120 00:09:14,290 --> 00:09:19,330 Speaker 1: blocked by a decomposing horse. Two dozen more animal carcasses 121 00:09:19,370 --> 00:09:23,770 Speaker 1: were found on the hospital's site. Prefabricated privies had been 122 00:09:23,810 --> 00:09:27,730 Speaker 1: built in the central courtyard, but excrement was leaking out 123 00:09:27,770 --> 00:09:31,290 Speaker 1: of the trench beneath them and into an adjacent water tank. 124 00:09:32,810 --> 00:09:37,210 Speaker 1: By late March, the Army was carrying out the commission's recommendations, 125 00:09:37,330 --> 00:09:41,210 Speaker 1: clearing and flushing the sewers, cutting air vents in the ceilings, 126 00:09:41,410 --> 00:09:46,490 Speaker 1: removing rotten wood floors, and whitewashing everything. The Sanitary Commission 127 00:09:46,610 --> 00:09:49,770 Speaker 1: is really doing something and has set to work burying 128 00:09:49,850 --> 00:09:54,810 Speaker 1: dead dogs and whitewashing walls, two prolific causes of fever. 129 00:09:55,690 --> 00:09:58,810 Speaker 1: The death toll was far lower after the Commission had 130 00:09:58,810 --> 00:10:03,090 Speaker 1: done its work, and before it was a perfect example 131 00:10:03,250 --> 00:10:06,170 Speaker 1: of what could be achieved to save lives with simple 132 00:10:06,290 --> 00:10:10,050 Speaker 1: cleanliness and keeping sewage away from the water supply. A 133 00:10:10,290 --> 00:10:16,850 Speaker 1: Nightingale did not forget the lesson. When Florence Nightingale returned 134 00:10:16,890 --> 00:10:24,090 Speaker 1: from the war, Queen Victoria summoned her for a royal audience. Ah, 135 00:10:24,130 --> 00:10:29,610 Speaker 1: Miss Nightingale, your majesty, we have heard so much about you. 136 00:10:30,330 --> 00:10:34,010 Speaker 1: Nightingale didn't think much of Victoria. She is the least 137 00:10:34,050 --> 00:10:40,610 Speaker 1: self reliant person I've ever known. But the Queen could 138 00:10:40,650 --> 00:10:44,250 Speaker 1: be useful to her. Florence Nightingale had returned from the 139 00:10:44,370 --> 00:10:48,010 Speaker 1: Kingdom of Hell with a mission. She wanted to make 140 00:10:48,050 --> 00:10:51,970 Speaker 1: sure the awful toll of disease in Scutari never happened 141 00:10:51,970 --> 00:10:57,170 Speaker 1: again in any British hospital anywhere in the world. So 142 00:10:57,370 --> 00:11:02,530 Speaker 1: Nightingale persuaded Victoria to support a royal commission investigating the 143 00:11:02,610 --> 00:11:06,970 Speaker 1: health of the army. As a woman, Nightingale was unable 144 00:11:06,970 --> 00:11:10,290 Speaker 1: to sit on the commission herself, but she assembled her 145 00:11:10,370 --> 00:11:13,530 Speaker 1: geek allies and worked behind the scenes to figure out 146 00:11:13,530 --> 00:11:17,490 Speaker 1: the problem. She turned down Queen Victoria's offer of a 147 00:11:17,610 --> 00:11:22,610 Speaker 1: suite at Kensington Palace, there would be far too many visitors. Instead, 148 00:11:23,130 --> 00:11:27,090 Speaker 1: she took rooms at a low rent London hotel. So 149 00:11:27,330 --> 00:11:30,330 Speaker 1: what had been the underlying cause of the death toll 150 00:11:30,410 --> 00:11:35,050 Speaker 1: in the Scutari hospitals to modernize The answer is obvious. 151 00:11:35,450 --> 00:11:40,450 Speaker 1: Disease spreads thanks to poor hygiene, poor ventilation, and contaminated water, 152 00:11:40,810 --> 00:11:45,130 Speaker 1: and the hospitals in Scutari suffered from all three. It 153 00:11:45,210 --> 00:11:48,890 Speaker 1: was not so obvious to Nightingale. Germ theory didn't exist 154 00:11:48,970 --> 00:11:53,810 Speaker 1: in the eighteen fifties. Although the science was mysterious. Nightingale 155 00:11:53,850 --> 00:11:56,410 Speaker 1: was one of a group of Victorian thinkers who were 156 00:11:56,410 --> 00:12:00,410 Speaker 1: convinced that one way or another, good sanitation should help. 157 00:12:01,010 --> 00:12:05,090 Speaker 1: With her ally the great statistician William Far, she assembled 158 00:12:05,130 --> 00:12:09,290 Speaker 1: and examined the data. Far and Nightingale became convinced that 159 00:12:09,330 --> 00:12:13,050 Speaker 1: wherever they looked, premature death went hand in hand with 160 00:12:13,210 --> 00:12:18,730 Speaker 1: open sewers, bad ventilation, and unclean conditions. It wasn't just 161 00:12:18,810 --> 00:12:22,970 Speaker 1: about the Crimean War. It was an ongoing public health 162 00:12:23,090 --> 00:12:29,610 Speaker 1: disaster in barracks, civilian hospitals, and beyond. The pair began 163 00:12:29,650 --> 00:12:33,930 Speaker 1: to campaign for better public health measures, and here the 164 00:12:34,090 --> 00:12:39,410 Speaker 1: epic battle was joined. They faced powerful opposition. The government 165 00:12:39,570 --> 00:12:43,250 Speaker 1: didn't want an embarrassing report about the Crimean War, already 166 00:12:43,290 --> 00:12:47,010 Speaker 1: regarded as a fiasco. The Queen, of course, was an 167 00:12:47,050 --> 00:12:51,290 Speaker 1: instinctive conservative, whose idea of reform was to replace one 168 00:12:51,530 --> 00:12:55,930 Speaker 1: over promoted bureaucrat with another. And neither the army nor 169 00:12:55,970 --> 00:12:59,570 Speaker 1: the medical profession cared to take constructions from a woman, 170 00:12:59,970 --> 00:13:05,450 Speaker 1: not even the Angel of Scutari, Florence Nightingale. In any case, 171 00:13:05,810 --> 00:13:08,850 Speaker 1: they believed she was surely wrong. A couple of years 172 00:13:08,850 --> 00:13:11,970 Speaker 1: after the end of the Crimean War, in eighteen fifty eight, 173 00:13:12,330 --> 00:13:17,530 Speaker 1: the Chief Medical Officer, John Simon acknowledged that contagious diseases 174 00:13:17,570 --> 00:13:21,330 Speaker 1: such as cholera and dysentery were a cause of premature 175 00:13:21,450 --> 00:13:26,090 Speaker 1: death in every civilized country, but that they were practically 176 00:13:26,090 --> 00:13:32,730 Speaker 1: speaking unavoidable. These diseases just happened, said John Simon, and 177 00:13:32,890 --> 00:13:36,490 Speaker 1: yes they killed people. Deal with it. And don't take 178 00:13:36,530 --> 00:13:44,490 Speaker 1: any lessons from Florence Nightingale. Nightingale was outraged at the complacency. 179 00:13:44,890 --> 00:13:49,330 Speaker 1: The deaths from disease in British Army barracks were criminally high. 180 00:13:49,370 --> 00:13:51,490 Speaker 1: It was just as bad, she said, as it would 181 00:13:51,490 --> 00:13:54,290 Speaker 1: be to take one thousand, one hundred men out upon 182 00:13:54,370 --> 00:13:59,330 Speaker 1: Salisbury playing and suit them. The same for civilian hospitals, 183 00:13:59,490 --> 00:14:03,450 Speaker 1: private homes, slums all over the country, men, women and 184 00:14:03,690 --> 00:14:08,330 Speaker 1: children were dying, and self satisfied men like John Simon 185 00:14:09,130 --> 00:14:14,930 Speaker 1: insisted that these deaths were practically speaking, unavoidable. The chief 186 00:14:14,970 --> 00:14:19,210 Speaker 1: medical Officer, the generals, and the entire British establishment stood 187 00:14:19,210 --> 00:14:24,930 Speaker 1: against her. Her geek sidekick, statistician William Farr warned her 188 00:14:24,970 --> 00:14:27,930 Speaker 1: to be careful. Well, if you do it, you will 189 00:14:27,970 --> 00:14:32,210 Speaker 1: make yourself enemies. After what I've seen, I can fire 190 00:14:32,250 --> 00:14:36,130 Speaker 1: my own guns. And the nineteenth century heroine had a 191 00:14:36,170 --> 00:14:46,210 Speaker 1: twenty first century weapon. It was a diagram. It's not 192 00:14:46,330 --> 00:14:49,690 Speaker 1: an accident that these days were surrounded by graphs and charts. 193 00:14:50,050 --> 00:14:53,890 Speaker 1: They're the sweet spot between solid statistical evidence on one hand, 194 00:14:53,930 --> 00:14:58,090 Speaker 1: and shareable gifts and filtered photos on the other. Hard 195 00:14:58,210 --> 00:15:03,010 Speaker 1: data plus striking images. Scientific evidence backs up what any 196 00:15:03,090 --> 00:15:07,090 Speaker 1: news editor or social media consultant will tell you. Graphs 197 00:15:07,210 --> 00:15:13,010 Speaker 1: attract attention and they persuade people. Researchers at Tuft's Visual 198 00:15:13,090 --> 00:15:16,290 Speaker 1: Analytics Lab found that people formed an impression of a 199 00:15:16,330 --> 00:15:22,490 Speaker 1: graphic within five hundred milliseconds just half a second. That's 200 00:15:22,530 --> 00:15:25,010 Speaker 1: far too brief to understand what the graph is about, 201 00:15:25,570 --> 00:15:27,970 Speaker 1: but it's not too brief to think what a mess 202 00:15:28,210 --> 00:15:34,090 Speaker 1: or ooh shiny. We respond to images without conscious thought. 203 00:15:35,170 --> 00:15:39,210 Speaker 1: Another team of researchers data scientists at New York University 204 00:15:39,570 --> 00:15:44,450 Speaker 1: showed people evidence about practical policy questions, For instance, does 205 00:15:44,450 --> 00:15:48,490 Speaker 1: a high corporate income tax drive jobs overseas or does 206 00:15:48,570 --> 00:15:52,330 Speaker 1: prison work as a deterrent. Sometimes the relevant data was 207 00:15:52,370 --> 00:15:54,970 Speaker 1: in the form of a table, and sometimes in the 208 00:15:55,010 --> 00:15:58,490 Speaker 1: form of a chart. Unless people already had a strong 209 00:15:58,530 --> 00:16:02,210 Speaker 1: position on the subject, the charts were much more persuasive 210 00:16:02,250 --> 00:16:04,770 Speaker 1: than the tables. If you saw a chart, you were 211 00:16:04,890 --> 00:16:09,530 Speaker 1: much more likely to change your view. That seems obvious today, 212 00:16:09,530 --> 00:16:13,450 Speaker 1: it wasn't obvious in the eighteen fifties. Statisticians were much 213 00:16:13,450 --> 00:16:15,810 Speaker 1: more likely to present their data in the form of 214 00:16:15,810 --> 00:16:20,170 Speaker 1: a table, even if the table sprawled across page after page. 215 00:16:20,850 --> 00:16:26,010 Speaker 1: Beautiful design was thought to be superfluous. Florence Nightingale, not 216 00:16:26,250 --> 00:16:29,050 Speaker 1: for the first time in her life, begged to differ. 217 00:16:29,770 --> 00:16:33,090 Speaker 1: She would create a graph so compelling that the British 218 00:16:33,170 --> 00:16:37,570 Speaker 1: establishment would have to bow in acquiescence. The graph in 219 00:16:37,650 --> 00:16:42,130 Speaker 1: question is titled Diagram of the Cause of Mortality in 220 00:16:42,210 --> 00:16:45,730 Speaker 1: the Army in the East. It was published in eighteen 221 00:16:45,810 --> 00:16:49,410 Speaker 1: fifty nine, the year after doctor John Simon declared that 222 00:16:49,530 --> 00:16:55,530 Speaker 1: death from infectious disease was practically speaking unavoidable. Now I'm 223 00:16:55,530 --> 00:16:58,210 Speaker 1: going to try my best to describe this image. I've 224 00:16:58,250 --> 00:17:01,250 Speaker 1: seen an original printing up close in the library of 225 00:17:01,290 --> 00:17:05,730 Speaker 1: the Royal Statistical Society in London. It's amazing, but you 226 00:17:05,730 --> 00:17:09,530 Speaker 1: can find copies online. The first thing you would see, say, 227 00:17:09,570 --> 00:17:12,570 Speaker 1: if you were shown the graph for five hundred milliseconds, 228 00:17:12,930 --> 00:17:16,690 Speaker 1: is that it consists of two pale blue spirals, one 229 00:17:17,050 --> 00:17:20,410 Speaker 1: larger than the other. Look more closely and you see 230 00:17:20,450 --> 00:17:24,610 Speaker 1: that each spiral is built of twelve equally angled wedges, 231 00:17:24,890 --> 00:17:27,610 Speaker 1: like the hours of the clock. Some of the wedges 232 00:17:27,650 --> 00:17:31,770 Speaker 1: are small, clinging near the center. Others sprawl out hugely, 233 00:17:31,850 --> 00:17:34,730 Speaker 1: which is what gives the diagram this sense of spiraling 234 00:17:34,810 --> 00:17:38,770 Speaker 1: in or out. The Rose diagram is a beautiful image, 235 00:17:39,210 --> 00:17:44,370 Speaker 1: but describes some horrifying numbers. Each of the wedges represents 236 00:17:44,410 --> 00:17:48,050 Speaker 1: the deaths in a particular month, and the two circles 237 00:17:48,090 --> 00:17:51,530 Speaker 1: describe the loss of life over two years, from April 238 00:17:51,690 --> 00:17:56,450 Speaker 1: eighteen fifty four to March eighteen fifty six. The first 239 00:17:56,450 --> 00:18:02,250 Speaker 1: circle spirals out like a snail. October is not too grave. November, 240 00:18:02,410 --> 00:18:06,050 Speaker 1: when Nightingale arrived at the hospital in Scutari, is worse. 241 00:18:06,530 --> 00:18:10,890 Speaker 1: December is worse still. Jan Ury and February are awful 242 00:18:11,450 --> 00:18:14,530 Speaker 1: swollen wedges of blue, so large that they threatened to 243 00:18:14,610 --> 00:18:18,010 Speaker 1: bleed off the edge of the page itself. In the 244 00:18:18,050 --> 00:18:20,930 Speaker 1: center of the diagram are tiny black and red wedges. 245 00:18:21,410 --> 00:18:24,770 Speaker 1: They indicate a handful of deaths from miscellaneous causes and 246 00:18:24,850 --> 00:18:30,090 Speaker 1: from wounds. The huge blue wedges show the overwhelming death 247 00:18:30,130 --> 00:18:35,130 Speaker 1: toll from infectious diseases. No one ever made a decision 248 00:18:35,210 --> 00:18:38,770 Speaker 1: because of a number. They needed a story, so said 249 00:18:38,890 --> 00:18:43,850 Speaker 1: Daniel Carneman and Amos Tversky, the two psychologists whose collaboration 250 00:18:43,930 --> 00:18:48,730 Speaker 1: would win Carneman and Nobel Prize after Tversky's death, and 251 00:18:48,930 --> 00:18:54,130 Speaker 1: Florence Nightingale's diagram more than anything, is a story. The 252 00:18:54,210 --> 00:18:57,650 Speaker 1: first half of that story is a catastrophe, but the 253 00:18:57,650 --> 00:19:01,930 Speaker 1: second circle continues the narrative. In April eighteen fifty five, 254 00:19:02,370 --> 00:19:06,850 Speaker 1: just after the sanitary Commission arrived in Scutari, the change 255 00:19:06,970 --> 00:19:10,490 Speaker 1: is dramatic. The circle is much smaller, and while the 256 00:19:10,610 --> 00:19:15,050 Speaker 1: first circle spiraled outward in an ever worsening death count, 257 00:19:15,530 --> 00:19:20,690 Speaker 1: the second circle shrinks inward as the casualties dwindle. It's 258 00:19:20,690 --> 00:19:24,970 Speaker 1: a tale with two halves. After the catastrophe comes the 259 00:19:25,010 --> 00:19:28,650 Speaker 1: redemption in between, the two of them flushing out the sewers, 260 00:19:28,770 --> 00:19:33,130 Speaker 1: casting away the dead horse, disinfecting the hospital buildings. In 261 00:19:33,170 --> 00:19:36,930 Speaker 1: eighteen fifty eight, John Simon, the Chief Medical Officer, had 262 00:19:37,010 --> 00:19:42,290 Speaker 1: declared that death from infectious disease was practically unavoidable. In 263 00:19:42,330 --> 00:19:47,090 Speaker 1: eighteen fifty nine, Florence Nightingale's graf said, that's a lie. 264 00:19:47,650 --> 00:19:51,690 Speaker 1: Not only a death's avoidable, but with simple practical measures 265 00:19:52,370 --> 00:19:57,570 Speaker 1: the army had avoided them. Those two pale blue circles 266 00:19:57,770 --> 00:20:01,770 Speaker 1: delivered a powerful two part payload. John Simon and his 267 00:20:01,850 --> 00:20:06,650 Speaker 1: allies felt the force of both barrels. As Nightingale explained 268 00:20:06,650 --> 00:20:11,570 Speaker 1: to an old friend, an influential politician, whenever I am infuriated, 269 00:20:11,890 --> 00:20:17,890 Speaker 1: I revenge myself with a new diagram. The graphs and 270 00:20:17,930 --> 00:20:22,010 Speaker 1: the rose diagram in particular, were part of a deliberate strategy. 271 00:20:22,650 --> 00:20:26,010 Speaker 1: In another letter to the same friend, written on Christmas Day, 272 00:20:26,170 --> 00:20:29,570 Speaker 1: eighteen fifty seven, she sketched out a plan to use 273 00:20:29,730 --> 00:20:34,170 Speaker 1: data visualization for social change. She declared her plan to 274 00:20:34,210 --> 00:20:38,010 Speaker 1: have her diagrams glazed, framed and hung on the wall 275 00:20:38,050 --> 00:20:41,690 Speaker 1: at the Army, Medical Board and War Department. This is 276 00:20:41,730 --> 00:20:45,370 Speaker 1: what they do not know and did ought to, she added, 277 00:20:45,930 --> 00:20:49,290 Speaker 1: None but scientific men even look into the appendices of 278 00:20:49,330 --> 00:20:53,850 Speaker 1: a report. And this is for the vulgar public. Now, 279 00:20:54,250 --> 00:20:56,650 Speaker 1: who is the vulgar public? Who is to have it? 280 00:20:57,370 --> 00:21:00,770 Speaker 1: The Queen Prince Albert, all the crownheads in Europe, with 281 00:21:00,850 --> 00:21:03,930 Speaker 1: the ambassadors or ministers of each, all the commanding officers 282 00:21:03,930 --> 00:21:07,210 Speaker 1: in the Army, all the regimental surgeons and medical officers, 283 00:21:07,450 --> 00:21:11,370 Speaker 1: the chief sanitarians in both houses of Parliament, all the newspapers, 284 00:21:11,570 --> 00:21:18,610 Speaker 1: reviews and magazines. Nightingale's visual story was impossible to ignore. 285 00:21:19,370 --> 00:21:24,490 Speaker 1: Opinions started to shift, Parliament past new laws, doctors adopted 286 00:21:24,530 --> 00:21:29,730 Speaker 1: new practices. Nightingale understood earlier than most that a chart 287 00:21:30,090 --> 00:21:34,810 Speaker 1: has a special power. But I can't just end this 288 00:21:34,890 --> 00:21:39,650 Speaker 1: cautionary tale there on a happy note, because perhaps charts 289 00:21:40,090 --> 00:21:49,610 Speaker 1: have a little too much power. Our visual sense is potent, 290 00:21:50,330 --> 00:21:53,650 Speaker 1: so potent that we even use the phrase I see 291 00:21:54,250 --> 00:22:00,650 Speaker 1: as a direct substitute for I understand. Seeing can be believing, 292 00:22:01,170 --> 00:22:06,930 Speaker 1: but seeing can also mean fooling yourself. Edward Tufty, perhaps 293 00:22:06,970 --> 00:22:11,330 Speaker 1: the most influential graphical guru alive, understand the power of 294 00:22:11,490 --> 00:22:16,250 Speaker 1: visual explanation as well as anyone. His books include envisioning 295 00:22:16,370 --> 00:22:23,050 Speaker 1: information and beautiful evidence. But we can envision misinformation too, 296 00:22:23,930 --> 00:22:26,450 Speaker 1: and it can be just as beautiful, and we can 297 00:22:26,490 --> 00:22:32,290 Speaker 1: now share it with a click. In mid March twenty twenty, 298 00:22:32,650 --> 00:22:35,650 Speaker 1: as we were just beginning to grasp the enormity of 299 00:22:35,650 --> 00:22:41,210 Speaker 1: the unfolding pandemic, Eric Fagelding, an epidemiologist with a large 300 00:22:41,290 --> 00:22:44,250 Speaker 1: following and a quick fire style, fired off a graph 301 00:22:44,410 --> 00:22:48,250 Speaker 1: from the Centers for Disease Control with a warning newsflash 302 00:22:48,290 --> 00:22:52,290 Speaker 1: for young people, you are not invincible. You're just as 303 00:22:52,330 --> 00:22:56,450 Speaker 1: likely to be hospitalized as older generations. Even CDC says 304 00:22:56,490 --> 00:23:00,490 Speaker 1: so that the CDC's graph didn't show that at all. 305 00:23:01,290 --> 00:23:05,210 Speaker 1: It showed that vastly more over forty fives than under 306 00:23:05,250 --> 00:23:09,050 Speaker 1: forty fives were in hospital. But it was easy to misunderstand, 307 00:23:09,090 --> 00:23:11,970 Speaker 1: and the graph if you didn't look closely at the tiny, 308 00:23:12,090 --> 00:23:15,170 Speaker 1: tiny labels on the axes, and who looks at the 309 00:23:15,210 --> 00:23:19,370 Speaker 1: tiny tiny labels eh, And so an epidemiologist who should 310 00:23:19,370 --> 00:23:22,050 Speaker 1: have known better but was just a little too eager 311 00:23:22,090 --> 00:23:27,250 Speaker 1: to tweet unwittingly spread misinformation to his three hundred thousand followers. 312 00:23:27,930 --> 00:23:31,450 Speaker 1: It gets worse. A few days later, the right wing 313 00:23:31,530 --> 00:23:35,370 Speaker 1: pundit and Coulter tweeted a pair of graphs and a 314 00:23:35,450 --> 00:23:40,250 Speaker 1: comment for people under sixty, coronavirus is less dangerous than 315 00:23:40,290 --> 00:23:44,490 Speaker 1: the seasonal flu. But the graphs showed the precise opposite 316 00:23:44,490 --> 00:23:48,570 Speaker 1: of Coulter's claim. COVID nineteen was about eight times as 317 00:23:48,570 --> 00:23:51,810 Speaker 1: deadly as flu for people in their fifties and five 318 00:23:51,890 --> 00:23:54,810 Speaker 1: times as deadly for people in their thirties and forties. 319 00:23:55,410 --> 00:23:57,930 Speaker 1: It's like tweeting a picture of a cow next to 320 00:23:57,930 --> 00:24:02,610 Speaker 1: a cat with the title cows are smaller than cats absurd, 321 00:24:03,370 --> 00:24:08,010 Speaker 1: except Coulter's up is down message was retweeted more than 322 00:24:08,050 --> 00:24:11,810 Speaker 1: eleven thousand times. Within a few hours of each other. 323 00:24:12,210 --> 00:24:16,050 Speaker 1: Two Twitter influencers, one overplaying the risk of COVID and 324 00:24:16,090 --> 00:24:20,530 Speaker 1: the other underplaying it, were tweeting graphs that they hadn't understood. 325 00:24:21,050 --> 00:24:24,410 Speaker 1: It didn't seem to stop those tweets going viral. All 326 00:24:24,490 --> 00:24:26,850 Speaker 1: too many people seem to think any claim with a 327 00:24:26,890 --> 00:24:31,970 Speaker 1: graph attached must be true. People make life changing decisions 328 00:24:32,010 --> 00:24:36,170 Speaker 1: because of graphical misinformation, like this, quitting a job in fear, 329 00:24:36,370 --> 00:24:39,730 Speaker 1: but in fact the risk is low, or recklessly exposing 330 00:24:39,730 --> 00:24:42,930 Speaker 1: others to deadly risk because they've been told the virus 331 00:24:43,010 --> 00:24:47,210 Speaker 1: is fake news. It turns out that data visualization is 332 00:24:47,250 --> 00:24:50,730 Speaker 1: a dual use technology. It can be a tool or 333 00:24:50,770 --> 00:24:55,090 Speaker 1: a weapon. Florence Nightingale was perhaps the first person in 334 00:24:55,250 --> 00:24:58,570 Speaker 1: history to grasp that a well designed graph based on 335 00:24:58,690 --> 00:25:03,850 Speaker 1: solid data can be remarkably persuasive. Experience has taught us 336 00:25:03,890 --> 00:25:07,730 Speaker 1: the unfortunate lesson that a badly designed graph or a 337 00:25:07,770 --> 00:25:11,530 Speaker 1: graph based on flimsy data, well, they can be remarkably 338 00:25:11,530 --> 00:25:22,170 Speaker 1: persuasive too. There is a strange twist in this story, 339 00:25:23,010 --> 00:25:27,210 Speaker 1: because while Florence Nightingale is revered by many graphic designers, 340 00:25:27,810 --> 00:25:32,930 Speaker 1: many others despise her Rose diagram. Edward Tufty, the influential 341 00:25:32,970 --> 00:25:36,770 Speaker 1: author of Beautiful Evidence, criticized the graph on his website. 342 00:25:36,930 --> 00:25:40,930 Speaker 1: The inherent problem as the difficulty of making good comparisons 343 00:25:40,970 --> 00:25:45,410 Speaker 1: across the wedges. In general, for such small data sets, 344 00:25:45,890 --> 00:25:51,290 Speaker 1: tables will I'll perform graphics. The diagram's unclear, and since 345 00:25:51,330 --> 00:25:55,210 Speaker 1: there aren't that many numbers to portray, Nightingale should simply 346 00:25:55,250 --> 00:26:00,090 Speaker 1: have used a table. Nightingale's statistical contemporaries would have agreed. 347 00:26:00,570 --> 00:26:04,410 Speaker 1: But I've seen the data in Nightingale's graph presented as 348 00:26:04,450 --> 00:26:07,010 Speaker 1: a table. And the first thing that sprang to mind 349 00:26:07,130 --> 00:26:10,850 Speaker 1: was Nightingale's own comment to her friend in that Christmas 350 00:26:10,930 --> 00:26:14,850 Speaker 1: Day letter of eighteen fifty seven. In this form, printed 351 00:26:14,850 --> 00:26:17,370 Speaker 1: tables and all in double columns, I do not think 352 00:26:17,410 --> 00:26:21,370 Speaker 1: anyone will read it. Remember to whom she sent this 353 00:26:21,530 --> 00:26:25,930 Speaker 1: earth shaking diagram, the Queen, Prince Albert, all the crownheads 354 00:26:25,930 --> 00:26:30,370 Speaker 1: in Europe, all the newspapers, reviews and magazines. Tables can 355 00:26:30,410 --> 00:26:34,330 Speaker 1: be clearer, but tables don't grab your attention in five 356 00:26:34,410 --> 00:26:38,170 Speaker 1: hundred milliseconds, and kings and queens and ministers and newspaper 357 00:26:38,250 --> 00:26:42,450 Speaker 1: editors are busy. As Nightingale rather acidly noted when she 358 00:26:42,530 --> 00:26:46,050 Speaker 1: sent her report to Queen Victoria, she may look at 359 00:26:46,090 --> 00:26:51,450 Speaker 1: it because it has pictures. Fine, the message demands a graph, 360 00:26:51,490 --> 00:26:55,490 Speaker 1: but surely there's a better, clearer graph conveying the same message. 361 00:26:56,010 --> 00:26:59,730 Speaker 1: Certainly that's what Edward Tufty's followers believe in the comments 362 00:26:59,730 --> 00:27:02,530 Speaker 1: on his website. Is it wrong that I'm erased by 363 00:27:02,570 --> 00:27:07,450 Speaker 1: a graphic? Good design is not drawing pretty pictures and 364 00:27:07,810 --> 00:27:12,370 Speaker 1: shoehorning the fact seen later, these Nightingale roses are just 365 00:27:12,410 --> 00:27:15,130 Speaker 1: a type of pie chart and contain all the disadvantages 366 00:27:15,170 --> 00:27:19,250 Speaker 1: of pie charts. Wow, that's quite a burn. The charts 367 00:27:19,250 --> 00:27:22,130 Speaker 1: are difficult to read. I would have thought that a 368 00:27:22,170 --> 00:27:25,090 Speaker 1: stacked bar chart on a timescale would have been a 369 00:27:25,090 --> 00:27:29,090 Speaker 1: better choice. Good idea. Let's try a bar chart. And 370 00:27:29,210 --> 00:27:32,850 Speaker 1: here's where the plot thickens, because when I first saw 371 00:27:32,890 --> 00:27:36,410 Speaker 1: the data presented as a bar chart, my jaw dropped. 372 00:27:37,050 --> 00:27:40,810 Speaker 1: It is absolutely clear and easy to read. And that's 373 00:27:40,810 --> 00:27:44,530 Speaker 1: the problem. When you see the data presented in a clear, 374 00:27:44,850 --> 00:27:50,010 Speaker 1: modern format, you start to realize something. Maybe Florence Nightingale 375 00:27:50,530 --> 00:27:59,090 Speaker 1: wasn't quite as saintly as everyone thought. Florence Nightingale's diagram 376 00:27:59,130 --> 00:28:02,890 Speaker 1: divides the data into two halves. That's not an accident. 377 00:28:03,450 --> 00:28:07,210 Speaker 1: The color diagram number one shows the salutary stage of 378 00:28:07,250 --> 00:28:10,850 Speaker 1: the army before the arrival of the commission. The colored 379 00:28:10,930 --> 00:28:16,890 Speaker 1: diagram number two shows what it became after that event catastrophe, before, 380 00:28:17,450 --> 00:28:22,090 Speaker 1: recovery after, and as I've mentioned, Nightingale was aiming not 381 00:28:22,330 --> 00:28:25,250 Speaker 1: at a post mortem of the Crimean War, but at 382 00:28:25,250 --> 00:28:29,610 Speaker 1: the far bigger goal of public health reform. Similar diagrams 383 00:28:29,810 --> 00:28:34,450 Speaker 1: might be constructed for towns in their unimproved and improved state. 384 00:28:35,090 --> 00:28:38,410 Speaker 1: Nature is the same everywhere and never permits her laws 385 00:28:38,410 --> 00:28:43,210 Speaker 1: to be disregarded with impunity. The argument is powerful, and 386 00:28:43,370 --> 00:28:48,090 Speaker 1: the conclusion is correct. Life expectancy strikingly improved in the 387 00:28:48,130 --> 00:28:51,850 Speaker 1: second half of the nineteenth century and the Sanitarian Revolution. 388 00:28:52,170 --> 00:28:56,170 Speaker 1: Cleaner water, cleaner homes, cleaner air deserves much of the credit. 389 00:28:57,050 --> 00:28:59,770 Speaker 1: But that's why it's so shocking to see the data 390 00:28:59,850 --> 00:29:04,530 Speaker 1: from the Rose diagram replotted as a bar chart. When 391 00:29:04,570 --> 00:29:08,370 Speaker 1: you do that, the stark before and after story is lost. 392 00:29:08,730 --> 00:29:12,210 Speaker 1: By the time the Sanitary Commission arrived in March, flushing 393 00:29:12,250 --> 00:29:15,170 Speaker 1: horses out of the water supply and carrying away tons 394 00:29:15,210 --> 00:29:19,650 Speaker 1: of human excrement, deaths had already been falling sharply for 395 00:29:19,690 --> 00:29:24,170 Speaker 1: a couple of months. Mark Bostridge, the author of an 396 00:29:24,170 --> 00:29:28,490 Speaker 1: award winning biography of Nightingale, argues that deaths were falling 397 00:29:28,530 --> 00:29:32,570 Speaker 1: because new arrivals were in better health, in part thanks 398 00:29:32,570 --> 00:29:35,290 Speaker 1: to the better weather. They were less numerous, so the 399 00:29:35,330 --> 00:29:39,050 Speaker 1: hospital was less overcrowded, and with fewer soldiers in the hospital, 400 00:29:39,090 --> 00:29:42,290 Speaker 1: of course there'd be fewer deaths. There's no doubt that 401 00:29:42,410 --> 00:29:47,770 Speaker 1: better sanitation works. But an unvarnished presentation of Nightingale's data 402 00:29:48,050 --> 00:29:52,930 Speaker 1: would have suggested that the truth was complicated, and complicated 403 00:29:53,890 --> 00:29:58,130 Speaker 1: wasn't going to serve her purposes, so she created her 404 00:29:58,250 --> 00:30:03,850 Speaker 1: Rose diagram. The same data, artfully presented, tells a very 405 00:30:03,930 --> 00:30:09,570 Speaker 1: different story. There's a famous remark in a letter that 406 00:30:09,730 --> 00:30:14,650 Speaker 1: passed between Nightingale and her ally, the great statistician William Farr, 407 00:30:15,130 --> 00:30:18,770 Speaker 1: You complain that your report would be dry. The dryer, 408 00:30:18,890 --> 00:30:22,690 Speaker 1: the better statistics should be the driest of all reading. 409 00:30:23,330 --> 00:30:27,250 Speaker 1: Several biographers have reported that remark as being written by 410 00:30:27,330 --> 00:30:33,250 Speaker 1: Far to Nightingale. That makes sense. The fusty, middle aged 411 00:30:33,330 --> 00:30:37,770 Speaker 1: statistician was advising the fiery younger advocate to reign in 412 00:30:37,810 --> 00:30:43,370 Speaker 1: her righteous campaigning influences, and thankfully she ignored him. Except 413 00:30:44,250 --> 00:30:48,530 Speaker 1: the biographers are wrong, confused perhaps by the fact that 414 00:30:48,570 --> 00:30:51,130 Speaker 1: the surviving draft of this letter was dictated to an 415 00:30:51,130 --> 00:30:55,690 Speaker 1: assistant and unsigned but while researching my new book, The 416 00:30:55,810 --> 00:31:00,210 Speaker 1: Data Detective, I tracked the letter down and it wasn't 417 00:31:00,250 --> 00:31:03,450 Speaker 1: from Far to Nightingale. It was the other way around. 418 00:31:04,090 --> 00:31:07,810 Speaker 1: You complain that your report would be dry. The dryer, 419 00:31:07,930 --> 00:31:11,490 Speaker 1: the better statistics should be the driest of all reading. 420 00:31:12,330 --> 00:31:16,770 Speaker 1: She was telling him to play it straight and avoid 421 00:31:16,970 --> 00:31:21,930 Speaker 1: editorializing solid evidence first, she said, and worry about the 422 00:31:21,970 --> 00:31:26,930 Speaker 1: sales pitch later. Good advice for any scientist. In the 423 00:31:26,970 --> 00:31:32,290 Speaker 1: same letter, she added, we want facts. Factor factor. Factor 424 00:31:32,610 --> 00:31:34,530 Speaker 1: is the motto which ought to stand at the head 425 00:31:34,530 --> 00:31:39,890 Speaker 1: of all statistical work. It's puzzling how could she produce 426 00:31:39,970 --> 00:31:45,650 Speaker 1: the famous Rose diagram, an artfully constructed piece of statistical storytelling, 427 00:31:46,210 --> 00:31:48,850 Speaker 1: while being the same person who told William Farr to 428 00:31:48,930 --> 00:31:52,410 Speaker 1: keep it dusty dry. My guess is that she was 429 00:31:52,530 --> 00:31:56,170 Speaker 1: far too clever to build an argument on shaky foundations. 430 00:31:56,970 --> 00:32:02,170 Speaker 1: The more spectacular the statistical acrobatics, the more solid the 431 00:32:02,290 --> 00:32:05,410 Speaker 1: numbers needed to be. But it's just a guess. I 432 00:32:05,410 --> 00:32:09,730 Speaker 1: don't know. I don't even know if this cause Retale 433 00:32:09,730 --> 00:32:13,890 Speaker 1: has a happy ending, if the end justifies the means. 434 00:32:14,210 --> 00:32:18,770 Speaker 1: I suppose it does, because she won Nightingale and her 435 00:32:18,810 --> 00:32:24,210 Speaker 1: allies saved countless lives, transforming the health of Victorian Britain 436 00:32:24,730 --> 00:32:29,890 Speaker 1: and arguably of the world. Most of Nightingale's campaigning took 437 00:32:29,930 --> 00:32:32,530 Speaker 1: place while she was confined to her bedroom by the 438 00:32:32,610 --> 00:32:37,890 Speaker 1: long illness she had acquired in Crimea, and she emerged triumphant. 439 00:32:38,930 --> 00:32:42,770 Speaker 1: Germ theory had vindicated her focus on hygiene and public health. 440 00:32:43,370 --> 00:32:48,530 Speaker 1: Her sanitarian reforms had been broadly implemented, the everyday health 441 00:32:48,570 --> 00:32:54,130 Speaker 1: of ordinary citizens had been transformed. Even doctor John Simon, 442 00:32:54,170 --> 00:32:58,610 Speaker 1: it seems, had quietly recognized his mistake. He published a 443 00:32:58,650 --> 00:33:03,210 Speaker 1: collection of his essays, and without acknowledging the change, he 444 00:33:03,370 --> 00:33:06,450 Speaker 1: altered the line that said that deaths from disease were 445 00:33:06,890 --> 00:33:13,970 Speaker 1: practically speaking unavoid instead saying they were in some degree unavoidable. 446 00:33:14,530 --> 00:33:18,090 Speaker 1: From saying there's nothing we can do to save lives, 447 00:33:18,850 --> 00:33:24,010 Speaker 1: John Simon had softly sidestepped into saying, well, we can't 448 00:33:24,010 --> 00:33:31,170 Speaker 1: save everyone. Florence Nightingale and her Rose diagram had defeated him. 449 00:33:31,690 --> 00:33:35,130 Speaker 1: But let's be careful, because it seems that if you 450 00:33:35,170 --> 00:33:38,930 Speaker 1: give us five hundred milliseconds alone with a pretty graph, 451 00:33:38,970 --> 00:33:44,290 Speaker 1: we're all suckers. The first data visualization to change the 452 00:33:44,370 --> 00:33:51,890 Speaker 1: world did so by exploiting our visual gullibility. Florence Nightingale's 453 00:33:51,930 --> 00:33:56,770 Speaker 1: beautiful graphic proved a powerful weapon, and now it's a 454 00:33:56,810 --> 00:34:01,610 Speaker 1: weapon that anyone with any motive can pick up and news. 455 00:34:06,610 --> 00:34:10,570 Speaker 1: Key sources for this episode include Mark Bostriche's biography and 456 00:34:10,730 --> 00:34:15,810 Speaker 1: Lynn McDonald's collected works of Florence Nightingale, Hugh Small's presentation 457 00:34:15,930 --> 00:34:19,450 Speaker 1: to the Royal Statistical Society, and my own book, The 458 00:34:19,650 --> 00:34:24,170 Speaker 1: Data Detective Ten Easy Rules to Make Sense of Statistics. 459 00:34:24,930 --> 00:34:30,010 Speaker 1: For a full list of references, see Tim Harford dot com. 460 00:34:30,170 --> 00:34:34,010 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales is written by me Tim Harford with Andrew Wright. 461 00:34:34,330 --> 00:34:37,810 Speaker 1: It's produced by Ryan Dilley and Marilyn Rust. The sound 462 00:34:37,810 --> 00:34:41,210 Speaker 1: design and original music is the work of Pascal Wise. 463 00:34:41,930 --> 00:34:46,170 Speaker 1: Julia Barton edited the scripts. Starring in this series of 464 00:34:46,210 --> 00:34:52,450 Speaker 1: Cautionary Tales Helena Bonham, Carter and Jeffrey Wright, alongside Nazzar Alderazzi, 465 00:34:52,770 --> 00:34:59,210 Speaker 1: Ed Gohan, Melanie Gutteridge, Rachel Hanshaw, cobenerholdbrook Smith, Greg Lockett, 466 00:34:59,610 --> 00:35:04,090 Speaker 1: Miss Siamunroe and Rufus Wright. This show wouldn't have been 467 00:35:04,130 --> 00:35:08,450 Speaker 1: possible without the work of Mia LaBelle, Jacob Weisberg, Heather Fane, 468 00:35:08,770 --> 00:35:14,610 Speaker 1: John Schnars, Carlie mcgliory, Eric Sandler, Emily Rostick, Maggie Taylor 469 00:35:15,010 --> 00:35:20,250 Speaker 1: and Yellow Lakhan and Maya Kanig. Cautionary Tales is a 470 00:35:20,330 --> 00:35:25,050 Speaker 1: production of Pushkin Industries. If you like the show, please 471 00:35:25,090 --> 00:35:28,130 Speaker 1: remember to rate, share, and review.