WEBVTT - Israel, Biden-Trump, Tesla, and Netflix 0:00:00.840 --> 0:00:04.000 Welcome to the Bloomberg Markets Podcast. I'm Paul Sweeney alongside 0:00:04.040 --> 0:00:05.280 my co host Matt Miller. 0:00:05.640 --> 0:00:09.600 Every business day we bring you interviews from CEOs, market pros, 0:00:09.720 --> 0:00:13.600 and Bloomberg experts, along with essential market moving news. 0:00:14.160 --> 0:00:17.279 I'm the Bloomberg Markets podcast called Apple Podcasts or wherever 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.480 you listen to podcasts, and at Bloomberg dot com slash podcast. 0:00:20.760 --> 0:00:23.200 We're going to get the latest on what's happening in Israel. 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.640 Hillary Kalisman, professor at the University. 0:00:26.200 --> 0:00:29.400 Of Colorado, Boulder. Oh, she may have been to, could 0:00:29.400 --> 0:00:29.840 have been where? 0:00:29.880 --> 0:00:32.760 Let's ask her before we get into the Middle East situation, Joe, 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:35.080 because I don't want to, you know, because it's such 0:00:35.120 --> 0:00:37.080 a tragic and horrible situation that we don't want to 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:38.320 be at all lighthearted. 0:00:38.440 --> 0:00:41.000 But before we get there, have you been to Casa 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:43.199 I have not. 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:46.400 I've driven past it many times though, and I would 0:00:46.440 --> 0:00:48.440 like to go, but I think it's hard to get there. 0:00:48.560 --> 0:00:50.080 Right now, I have another. 0:00:49.880 --> 0:00:50.960 Good recommendation for you. 0:00:51.000 --> 0:00:52.760 I just went this weekend my son and graduated from 0:00:52.760 --> 0:00:54.960 INERSH at Colorado. He picked I think the most expensive 0:00:54.960 --> 0:00:58.000 restaurant in Denver, Fruition. So I recommend fruition if you 0:00:58.040 --> 0:01:01.800 haven't been there. All right, let's get to Israel here, 0:01:02.120 --> 0:01:05.679 very very difficult situation here. Do you have a sense 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:09.440 of how this might play out? I mean, it's just 0:01:09.480 --> 0:01:11.480 been on and on and on, and now with the 0:01:11.640 --> 0:01:14.360 horrific attack from you know, now ten days ago, it's 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:16.200 taken a whole new level here. Do you have any 0:01:16.200 --> 0:01:19.080 sense of how this might develop over the coming weeks 0:01:19.080 --> 0:01:20.119 and months. 0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:26.600 It's a difficult question, and I would say I would 0:01:26.640 --> 0:01:33.160 see I don't. I don't necessarily see any kind of 0:01:33.800 --> 0:01:41.919 long term easing of the conflict either. It's something where 0:01:42.160 --> 0:01:49.360 you have an Israeli government reeling from intelligence failures, trying 0:01:49.400 --> 0:01:55.480 to figure out what is the best option while trying 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:58.960 to kind of please like trying to reassure their constituents 0:01:59.000 --> 0:02:03.000 that they can in fact tech their citizens. On the 0:02:03.040 --> 0:02:07.800 other hand, their tactics so far have been it seems 0:02:07.880 --> 0:02:14.840 quite ineffective and causing a lot of civilian deaths within Gaza. 0:02:15.960 --> 0:02:19.480 So I do think a ground invasion is imminent. I 0:02:19.520 --> 0:02:23.480 think the part that I worry about in particular is 0:02:23.520 --> 0:02:26.720 what is the endgame for any of the involved parties here. 0:02:28.120 --> 0:02:31.080 So, if you're the Palestinians, can you give us just 0:02:31.480 --> 0:02:33.960 educase a little bit here to what extent do the 0:02:34.000 --> 0:02:37.800 Palestinian people in that region support Hamas. 0:02:39.160 --> 0:02:43.360 Well? So Hamas was elected in two thousand and six 0:02:44.520 --> 0:02:46.760 over you know, sort of about fifty percent of the 0:02:46.800 --> 0:02:50.240 population in Gaza would not have been old enough to 0:02:50.360 --> 0:02:55.519 elect them. And I would say I don't I haven't 0:02:55.560 --> 0:03:01.440 heard sort of very many support people supporting Hamas's current 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:07.480 actions and also their fallout. Right. It's something though where Hamas, 0:03:07.639 --> 0:03:09.240 you know, sort of, so it's been a long time 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:16.000 since two thousand and six, right, and you've had Palestinians 0:03:16.040 --> 0:03:19.399 in Gaza, in particular also in the West Bank protesting 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:23.800 sort of demanding that their self determination not continue to 0:03:23.840 --> 0:03:27.960 be put on the back burner, that their material conditions improve. 0:03:28.760 --> 0:03:31.640 In twenty eighteen, you had this great March of Return 0:03:31.680 --> 0:03:35.480 where you had Palestinians protesting daily at the border fence 0:03:35.520 --> 0:03:39.520 with Gaza, and it had no effect. Many of them 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:42.600 were killed. So it's something where the Palestinians living in 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:45.840 those areas, The Palestinians living in Gaza, I don't think, 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:48.800 have seen any tangible benefits from hamas as a government, 0:03:48.840 --> 0:03:51.680 and they're certainly not seeing any tangible benefits from Hamas 0:03:51.720 --> 0:03:55.680 acting as it has been historically is a terrorist organization. 0:03:55.760 --> 0:03:58.360 Have they any have they did they see any tangible 0:03:58.720 --> 0:03:59.840 benefits from. 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:03.160 The PLO the PLA. Have they seen any. 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:06.880 Tangible benefits from help out of Jordan or Egypt? I mean, 0:04:07.200 --> 0:04:11.120 has anything been helpful to the Palestinians since like nineteen 0:04:11.200 --> 0:04:11.760 forty eight. 0:04:14.640 --> 0:04:18.440 I would say there have been periods where things have 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:23.560 been better. The period you know, sort of so between 0:04:23.640 --> 0:04:27.559 nineteen forty eight and nineteen sixty seven, the West Bank 0:04:27.680 --> 0:04:31.120 in particular belonged to Jordan. Right Jordan annexed it, including 0:04:31.160 --> 0:04:36.320 East Jerusalem, and Palestinians were made citizens. Now again, Palestinians 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.200 were many were extremely angry. The King of Jordan gets 0:04:39.200 --> 0:04:42.240 assassinated for agreeing to sort of work with Israel in 0:04:42.320 --> 0:04:49.839 nineteen forty eight, and Gaza is occupied by Egypt. But 0:04:49.880 --> 0:04:51.920 Egypt doesn't want to annex it, It doesn't want to make 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:55.159 it part of Egypt. It doesn't want that Palestinian population. 0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:58.800 That said, during that period you are able to have 0:04:59.000 --> 0:05:01.000 you know, sort of Palestinian it's beginning to kind of 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:03.800 build up a livelihood again. But I want to emphasize 0:05:03.920 --> 0:05:08.279 they don't have Palestinian sovereignty. They don't have a state. 0:05:11.040 --> 0:05:14.560 And one of the other things to remember, right, is 0:05:14.560 --> 0:05:20.839 that the Palestinian population without a state, without a standing army, 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:23.080 without even you know, sort of the ability to collect 0:05:23.080 --> 0:05:27.120 their own taxes. And again this worsens under Israeli occupation. 0:05:27.320 --> 0:05:34.160 After the War of nineteen sixty seven, you have essentially 0:05:35.240 --> 0:05:41.240 against sort of their self determination postponed and one of 0:05:41.279 --> 0:05:45.160 the and they also have sort of very little bargaining 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:48.960 power visa viv the Israeli state. The periods in which 0:05:48.960 --> 0:05:51.599 they are able to get bargaining power are periods in 0:05:51.600 --> 0:05:56.840 which they make it harder for Israel to continue the 0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:00.359 situation of having Palestinians without of state and continue to 0:06:00.400 --> 0:06:01.440 occupy them. 0:06:01.720 --> 0:06:05.000 Yeah, this is right, Just no, please continue. 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:08.360 Just thirty seconds left, professor. Is there anywhere for Palestinians 0:06:08.400 --> 0:06:09.440 to go in this world? 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:10.760 I mean, what do they do? 0:06:13.080 --> 0:06:16.799 It's so hard? And again it is so many ordinary 0:06:16.920 --> 0:06:20.279 people who would like to live somewhere in safety with 0:06:20.400 --> 0:06:25.120 their children. And one of the things I want, I 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:29.800 really want to emphasize here is that the future, the 0:06:29.839 --> 0:06:35.120 future safety of Israel also depends on their being somewhere 0:06:35.120 --> 0:06:40.200 for Palestinians to go and be safe. They're entwined, and 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:47.400 I think the Hamas terrorist attacks are a horrible, horrible, 0:06:47.480 --> 0:06:50.640 unjustified wake up call for the Israeli government to sort 0:06:50.640 --> 0:06:53.359 of say, no, look, you cannot keep your population safe 0:06:53.520 --> 0:06:57.440 with this Palestinian population without statehood. 0:06:58.240 --> 0:07:00.200 Next to you, all right, professor, thank you some much. 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:02.880 We appreciate that. Hillary Kllisman, she's a professor at the 0:07:02.960 --> 0:07:04.840 University of Colorado at Boulder. 0:07:06.120 --> 0:07:09.520 You're listening to the Team Ken's Are Live program Bloomberg 0:07:09.560 --> 0:07:12.920 Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:16.160 the iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:18.480 on demand wherever you get your podcasts. 0:07:19.920 --> 0:07:22.120 Matt Miller, Paul Sweeney live here in our Bloomberg Interactive 0:07:22.120 --> 0:07:25.760 Brokers studio. What's a fixingcome investor to do? Twenty twenty 0:07:25.760 --> 0:07:28.600 two was just the worst bait maybe of all time 0:07:28.640 --> 0:07:31.400 for fixing come investing. This year is it's not much better. 0:07:31.520 --> 0:07:34.480 If you're not this year bad. If you're in high yield, 0:07:34.480 --> 0:07:36.480 you've had some positive returns, but that's about it. So 0:07:36.760 --> 0:07:39.280 let's check in with somebody who does this investing stuff 0:07:39.280 --> 0:07:40.200 for living Mike Green. 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:41.760 He's a portfolio. 0:07:41.280 --> 0:07:44.280 Manager in chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. Mike, thanks 0:07:44.440 --> 0:07:46.440 so much for joining us here. How are you guys 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:49.880 approaching this market here? I love to get kind of 0:07:49.880 --> 0:07:52.160 how you entered the year and maybe how you've kind 0:07:52.160 --> 0:07:55.480 of repositioned, if at all here as we get into 0:07:56.400 --> 0:07:57.160 the fourth quarter. 0:07:58.520 --> 0:08:00.840 Well, fortunately at simplfy we run a nonumber of strategies, 0:08:00.880 --> 0:08:05.120 so we've had everything ranging from our interest rate hedge 0:08:05.160 --> 0:08:07.920 product prefix, which looks like it's on track for a 0:08:08.000 --> 0:08:10.760 second year of a row of just being a phenomenal performer. 0:08:11.080 --> 0:08:13.800 But simply that's just betting against rates, right, it's betting 0:08:13.800 --> 0:08:17.040 on higher interest rates. It's worked as a fantastic portfolio hedge. 0:08:17.760 --> 0:08:20.760 In terms of my personal exposure in funds that I 0:08:20.880 --> 0:08:24.480 directly manage, I have been biased towards bonds and duration, 0:08:24.600 --> 0:08:26.680 and obviously that's been the wrong call for the year. 0:08:26.760 --> 0:08:30.160 I think the interesting question is why, in the face 0:08:30.360 --> 0:08:33.559 of much higher interest rates are we not seeing equity 0:08:33.559 --> 0:08:36.760 markets respond? And I think the most interesting aspect of 0:08:36.800 --> 0:08:40.200 it is simply that we're not seeing flexing and demand. 0:08:40.240 --> 0:08:43.320 We're not seeing that marginal player who can say I 0:08:43.320 --> 0:08:46.960 think equities are relatively unattractive versus bonds. We hear an 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:50.040 awful lot about the very low equity risk premium, but 0:08:50.080 --> 0:08:53.720 we're not really seeing allocations change in a meaningful way. 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.280 And that strikes me as one of the most interesting 0:08:56.320 --> 0:08:59.480 dynamics playing out in markets today. I think it plays 0:08:59.520 --> 0:09:01.960 into a a bunch of the material and emphasis that 0:09:02.000 --> 0:09:06.520 I placed on passive investment strategies. Systematic investment strategies for 0:09:06.679 --> 0:09:10.800 portfolio construction is not really tied to the underlying fundamentals. 0:09:10.840 --> 0:09:13.080 It's tied to historical return profiles. 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.960 Yeah, well, it seems like everybody, well, it seems like 0:09:17.000 --> 0:09:20.000 a lot of big names have been burned. 0:09:20.080 --> 0:09:20.280 You know. 0:09:20.320 --> 0:09:22.880 Stephen Major recently came out and said he was wrong 0:09:23.960 --> 0:09:28.720 on bonds. He pointed out that debts and deficits hadn't 0:09:28.840 --> 0:09:31.520 mattered in the past, and now they do. Lacy Hunt 0:09:31.720 --> 0:09:35.000 over at Hoysington Investment Management has said this is one 0:09:35.040 --> 0:09:37.360 of the toughest years of his career, and he's eighty one, 0:09:38.080 --> 0:09:40.000 so he's been in the market for a long time. 0:09:41.280 --> 0:09:45.360 And everybody is like, hey, inflation is coming down. In fact, 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:50.440 there has been no decline this large in inflation that 0:09:50.559 --> 0:09:54.520 hasn't been involved with a recession and its immediate aftermath. 0:09:54.679 --> 0:09:58.960 So I guess I have two main questions, Mike. One 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:03.199 do you think inflation is really solved? Has the FED 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:04.200 you know, done it? 0:10:04.760 --> 0:10:05.439 And two? 0:10:06.000 --> 0:10:10.040 Are we headed for a recession or is Paul's soft 0:10:10.120 --> 0:10:11.120 landing scenario going. 0:10:11.120 --> 0:10:11.600 To play out? 0:10:13.160 --> 0:10:15.600 So I'm very much in the camp that says that 0:10:15.600 --> 0:10:18.120 the data is currently misleading us. I agree by the 0:10:18.160 --> 0:10:21.440 way that the inflatory has played out as many of 0:10:21.480 --> 0:10:25.160 the transitory infliction as myself included would have argued, we've 0:10:25.160 --> 0:10:29.320 seen a remarkable deceleration if you go further within the 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:32.640 infant data series and you focus on market based measures, 0:10:32.720 --> 0:10:36.000 and so just very quickly remember that about thirty five 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:39.120 percent of the CPI numbers that we see, or what 0:10:39.160 --> 0:10:42.160 are called imputed measures. Those would include things like owners 0:10:42.200 --> 0:10:46.679 equivalent rent, very slow moving adjustments that they make. Even 0:10:46.720 --> 0:10:50.000 those silly things like the cost of banking services is 0:10:50.080 --> 0:10:53.760 currently very elevated because of the way we define that right, 0:10:53.800 --> 0:10:57.599 So crazily enough, the cost of banking services is defined 0:10:57.720 --> 0:11:00.480 by the spread between the risk free rate and the 0:11:00.600 --> 0:11:03.920 rate that is being paid on deposits. That means that 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:07.440 as the FED has raised interest rates, they've dramatically increased 0:11:07.440 --> 0:11:10.320 the imputed costs of banking services. So those are the 0:11:10.360 --> 0:11:14.120 factors that are actually currently driving or keeping inflation elevated. 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:16.680 If you use the market based measures, the ones that 0:11:16.720 --> 0:11:18.880 you experience on a year over year basis as you 0:11:18.920 --> 0:11:21.680 go to the grocery store, those are now running below 0:11:21.760 --> 0:11:26.160 two percent, below the below Powells targets, and would suggest 0:11:26.240 --> 0:11:29.040 that that's not the problem at all. I think the 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:33.640 clear challenge that we're facing is modestly increased supply. Again, 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.680 not a crazy increase. I understand people point to higher 0:11:37.760 --> 0:11:41.920 level of deficits, etc. We haven't seen an unbelievably large 0:11:41.960 --> 0:11:45.120 increase in the supply of bonds. But the bigger story 0:11:45.120 --> 0:11:47.720 continues to be the relative challenge of getting people to 0:11:47.800 --> 0:11:51.880 actually change their allocations and say, should we allocate two 0:11:51.920 --> 0:11:56.920 equities away? So that's just a structurally very slow process. 0:11:57.200 --> 0:12:01.000 What about I saw a story this morning China or 0:12:01.080 --> 0:12:05.960 Chinese investors have sold more US holding stocks and bonds 0:12:06.840 --> 0:12:09.320 than they have in the past four years because they're 0:12:09.360 --> 0:12:11.760 defending the U on and a lot of countries are 0:12:11.760 --> 0:12:16.400 defending their currency against a stronger dollar. To foreign investors 0:12:16.520 --> 0:12:17.240 who are. 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.880 Huge holders of treasuries. Are they a problem for this market? 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:25.160 Well, they're definitely not helping, right, because we would hope 0:12:25.280 --> 0:12:26.520 to see an increase in demand. 0:12:26.640 --> 0:12:26.760 Now. 0:12:26.760 --> 0:12:29.200 The irony, of course, is that their source of supply, 0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:31.880 the reason that they've accumulated those are the very large 0:12:32.000 --> 0:12:34.680 trade surpluses that they run with the United States, and 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:38.840 then their failure to reinvest in any meaningful way, which 0:12:38.960 --> 0:12:42.280 historically would have led to their currency appreciating. Now as 0:12:42.320 --> 0:12:46.080 they face commodity prices, they face a slowing in the 0:12:46.120 --> 0:12:48.880 Chinese economy, as they face capital flight from within their 0:12:48.880 --> 0:12:52.480 own economy, You're seeing them effectively have to defend their 0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:57.400 currencies against the rising US dollar, and you know, yes, 0:12:57.480 --> 0:13:00.680 they're no longer accumulating in the same manner. But we're 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:05.600 not really seeing a wholesale crash, right. The tick type 0:13:05.600 --> 0:13:09.480 indicators for demand from foreign buyers are muted, but it's 0:13:09.520 --> 0:13:11.839 not a crash in demand. The other thing that I 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:13.800 would just highlight is is that we're seeing this this 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:16.319 is not a US story. We're seeing bond sell off 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:19.199 on a global basis, and so we hear an awful 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:23.200 lot about the unsustainability of US fiscal policy. The simple 0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.480 reality is, I look at a place like France, which 0:13:25.520 --> 0:13:28.480 is running almost the same deficit to GDP as the 0:13:28.559 --> 0:13:31.600 United States and doing so on a much more structural basis, 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:35.440 and their bonds are actually trading inside the United States. 0:13:35.520 --> 0:13:38.000 That suggests to me there's a combination of diversification and 0:13:38.320 --> 0:13:39.960 very slow to respond demand. 0:13:40.960 --> 0:13:42.840 Hey, Mike, thanks so much for joining us. Always appreciate 0:13:42.880 --> 0:13:45.800 getting a couple of minutes of your time. That's Mike Green. 0:13:45.800 --> 0:13:50.480 He's sup portfolio manager and chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management. 0:13:50.520 --> 0:13:52.480 He's been in the business long time, has seen the 0:13:52.600 --> 0:13:53.800 various cycles. 0:13:53.400 --> 0:13:55.880 Here used to run Peter Thiel's money. Yeah, that's kind 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:56.120 of cool. 0:13:56.160 --> 0:13:58.400 Which is a lot of money. And we have an 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:03.200 amazing story on the terminal today showing that of the 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:07.319 two hundred and seventy one people Peter Teal has bribed 0:14:07.400 --> 0:14:09.720 to drop out of college, yeah, you know, he pays 0:14:09.920 --> 0:14:11.920 kids one hundred thousand dollars to drop out of college, 0:14:12.320 --> 0:14:17.880 eleven have founded billion dollar plus businesses, almost twelve because 0:14:17.920 --> 0:14:20.320 one guy just sold out with nine hundred and seventy 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:20.760 five for here. 0:14:20.880 --> 0:14:23.040 That's a good return on that investment. 0:14:23.320 --> 0:14:26.440 You're listening to the tape kets are live program Bloomberg 0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:30.120 Markets weekdays at ten am Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 0:14:30.160 --> 0:14:33.400 tune in app, Bloomberg dot Com, and the Bloomberg Business App. 0:14:33.440 --> 0:14:36.240 You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 0:14:36.240 --> 0:14:40.680 flagship New York station, Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:44.600 Here's I think one of the most fascinating stories on 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:48.160 the Bloomberg terminal today. A Bloomberg News and Morning Console 0:14:48.240 --> 0:14:51.160 poll provides one of the most detailed looks yet at 0:14:51.160 --> 0:14:53.480 how the twenty twenty four presidential race is playing out 0:14:53.520 --> 0:14:56.680 in the seven swing states that could decide who wins. 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.880 The title of the reporter on this story, Gregory Courty 0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.280 joins us. He's a White House and political corresponding with 0:15:02.280 --> 0:15:05.520 Bloomberg News. Gregory, what's the poll telling us here? 0:15:06.960 --> 0:15:09.680 Well, what this poll does Unlike a lot of the 0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:11.760 other polls you see out there, which are national polls, 0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:14.280 this just looks at the seven swing states that are 0:15:14.520 --> 0:15:18.880 most likely to matter next year, and they are Arizona, Georgia, 0:15:18.960 --> 0:15:24.400 North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. And what we 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:26.840 see in this poll is that president former President Trump 0:15:27.160 --> 0:15:30.960 is up in five of those seven states, Biden is 0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:34.080 up in only one. President Biden is leading in Nevada, 0:15:34.480 --> 0:15:37.600 and then Michigan is a dead tie according to our poll. 0:15:37.640 --> 0:15:40.400 But across these if you look across the swing states, 0:15:40.560 --> 0:15:45.320 president former president Trump is overperforming what you see in 0:15:45.360 --> 0:15:47.600 the national polls. And obviously that's a good sign for 0:15:47.680 --> 0:15:49.080 him because these are the states that are actually going 0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:49.480 to matter. 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:55.160 So we're, you know, thirteen months before the election. If 0:15:55.200 --> 0:15:58.320 I were the Biden reelection campaign, how would I interpret 0:15:58.360 --> 0:15:59.720 these numbers? How concerned would I be? 0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:01.120 Oh? 0:16:01.160 --> 0:16:04.640 I think they're concerned, and they're very likely seeing similar 0:16:04.720 --> 0:16:07.000 kinds of things in their own internal polling. But they 0:16:07.040 --> 0:16:09.640 would also say, look, it's thirteen months before the election. 0:16:10.280 --> 0:16:14.239 Certainly we've had some economic challenges coming out of the pandemic. 0:16:14.880 --> 0:16:19.680 Inflation is ebbing somewhat, but people still feel it absolutely. 0:16:21.160 --> 0:16:23.280 What we see in this poll is it's those kitchen 0:16:23.320 --> 0:16:27.680 table issues. It's those bread and butter household economics that 0:16:28.240 --> 0:16:32.240 is really killing the president right now. There's a huge 0:16:32.280 --> 0:16:37.160 trust deficit people voters in these swing states are trusting 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:40.120 former President Trump on the issue of the economy and 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:42.080 all the sub issues that we look at the economy, 0:16:42.080 --> 0:16:44.200 we really delve deep to look at Okay, when you 0:16:44.240 --> 0:16:46.160 talk about the economy, are you're talking about inflation, are 0:16:46.200 --> 0:16:48.120 you talking about the stock market? Are you talking about 0:16:48.120 --> 0:16:51.720 taxes or spending? And across all of those economic issues. 0:16:52.080 --> 0:16:56.200 President Trump had the advantage in these swing state voters. 0:16:56.880 --> 0:16:59.800 What President Biden is hoping is that as the economy 0:16:59.800 --> 0:17:02.000 and if we're able to have that soft landing and 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:04.919 avoid the recession, if people are looking up by this 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:09.520 time next year more optimistic about where the economy is 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:11.600 going and not just where it has been, there is 0:17:11.600 --> 0:17:14.280 an opportunity for present Biden to be reelected. 0:17:14.800 --> 0:17:19.000 The problem is, I think pretty clearly inflation, Like, even 0:17:19.040 --> 0:17:22.640 if inflation got down to zero today, you've still seen 0:17:22.680 --> 0:17:25.240 prices run up at an unbelievable pace and they're not 0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:26.080 turning around. 0:17:26.359 --> 0:17:31.160 Plus wages have not kept up even nearly with inflation. 0:17:31.200 --> 0:17:33.680 Wages is not going ahead of No, no, no, no 0:17:33.160 --> 0:17:33.840 no no. 0:17:34.720 --> 0:17:37.720 I mean, I look obviously very closely at cars, and 0:17:37.760 --> 0:17:40.240 I just see Hannah was right. Hannah Elliott wrote a 0:17:40.240 --> 0:17:44.000 story about the Jeep three ninety two two years ago 0:17:44.359 --> 0:17:46.960 going for seventy four thousand dollars, and she thought that 0:17:47.000 --> 0:17:49.400 was way too expensive. I wrote about it or I'm 0:17:49.440 --> 0:17:51.280 looking at it this week and I see it at 0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:54.120 ninety two to five, So that's a huge jump. It's 0:17:54.200 --> 0:18:01.120 up twenty three percent. And I guess my question, Gregory, 0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:06.040 is this a lot of this is very clearly inflation 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:11.439 is very clearly being fueled by excess spending, which was 0:18:11.560 --> 0:18:16.960 understandable during COVID. But we're still running one and a 0:18:17.000 --> 0:18:21.480 half trillion dollar deficits. And President Biden is like all 0:18:21.480 --> 0:18:24.679 in favor of spending as much as possible, or at 0:18:24.720 --> 0:18:27.359 least that's how it appears, right, So how does he 0:18:27.440 --> 0:18:32.040 turn that narrative around, you know, while we're while we're 0:18:32.040 --> 0:18:34.240 while we're looking at these huge deficits in debt. 0:18:35.560 --> 0:18:37.520 Yeah, so what you've seen is and I think you 0:18:38.119 --> 0:18:41.040 exactly nailed it, right, So even if there's a little 0:18:41.040 --> 0:18:43.080 bit of disinflation, that's not the same as deflation. 0:18:43.240 --> 0:18:43.400 Right. 0:18:43.440 --> 0:18:46.720 So, so people have seen this cumulative inflation over the 0:18:46.760 --> 0:18:49.119 course of the Biden years. Again, we're coming out of 0:18:49.119 --> 0:18:52.280 a pandemic. You know, this is a lot of the 0:18:52.359 --> 0:18:55.920 spending happened, and the tail and the Trump administration, those 0:18:56.000 --> 0:19:01.159 arguments are falling on deaf years. Republicans have have branded 0:19:01.240 --> 0:19:04.399 this economy is Bidenomics, right, that all this inflation. 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:06.639 That peoples branded this economy is biden. 0:19:06.920 --> 0:19:09.919 Well, what President Biden has tried to do is rebrand 0:19:09.920 --> 0:19:15.359 it as this package of social spending and investment in 0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:21.080 green energy technologies, infrastructure, all of these things. But people 0:19:21.119 --> 0:19:24.119 are looking the outputs and not the policy inputs, and 0:19:24.240 --> 0:19:28.200 so I think you're absolutely right, it's the economic indicators. 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:30.440 But even more than that, just what people are feeling 0:19:30.480 --> 0:19:32.680 that that perception, and it's going to take a while 0:19:32.680 --> 0:19:36.240 to change perceptions because the cumulative inflation during the Biden 0:19:36.320 --> 0:19:39.919 years is more than sixteen percent. People, it takes a 0:19:39.920 --> 0:19:43.600 while for people to digest that prices are now stabilizing 0:19:43.600 --> 0:19:45.960 a little bit. They still are comparing what they're spending 0:19:45.960 --> 0:19:47.560 now to what they were spending pre pandemic. 0:19:47.640 --> 0:19:51.840 Yeah, what I'm feeling is I can barely afford like groceries, childcare, 0:19:52.119 --> 0:19:55.639 and housing at a time when you know, if you 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:57.680 want to buy a car, get ready for eight or 0:19:57.760 --> 0:20:00.480 nine percent interest rates on that. If you want to 0:20:00.480 --> 0:20:04.000 buy a house, ditto with the mortgage. So it's like 0:20:05.960 --> 0:20:08.960 and we're still going to say, hey, let's do a 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:13.560 one trillion dollar additional spending bill, right, exactly. 0:20:13.160 --> 0:20:16.280 What so Gregory the president. 0:20:16.400 --> 0:20:17.840 We had some more news on some of his legal 0:20:17.920 --> 0:20:21.200 challenges today regarding one of his former aides pleading guilty. 0:20:21.400 --> 0:20:24.560 He still has a lot of legal challenges ahead of him. 0:20:24.840 --> 0:20:27.280 That doesn't seem to be hurting him at all, does it. 0:20:28.440 --> 0:20:28.640 Yeah? 0:20:28.680 --> 0:20:31.760 I just saw the headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal as 0:20:31.800 --> 0:20:34.960 I was coming on here. What we saw in this 0:20:35.080 --> 0:20:37.760 poll was one of the interesting things is one of 0:20:37.760 --> 0:20:39.800 the questions we asked is what have you seen, read, 0:20:39.880 --> 0:20:43.760 or heard about these candidates in the past few days 0:20:43.840 --> 0:20:46.720 or weeks, And it called for an open ended response. 0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:49.000 We got to see actually what they were hearing, how 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:52.560 they were viewing these candidates, and what you heard a 0:20:52.600 --> 0:20:55.840 lot about President Biden about his age, and what you 0:20:55.920 --> 0:21:00.440 heard overwhelmingly about President Trump is about his legal troubles. Interestingly, 0:21:00.440 --> 0:21:03.280 we heard it both from Democrats and Republicans. Trump supporters 0:21:03.320 --> 0:21:05.560 are talking a lot about his legal troubles. Of course 0:21:05.600 --> 0:21:08.119 they're doing in a different context. They're saying, all I 0:21:08.200 --> 0:21:11.240 hear about is President Trump's legal troubles. I wish I 0:21:11.240 --> 0:21:14.520 would hear less about it. Everybody's fixated on it. This 0:21:14.600 --> 0:21:17.640 is all sort of a witch hunt. But it's certainly 0:21:18.000 --> 0:21:21.680 that news is permeating. People are reading it, and they're 0:21:21.680 --> 0:21:23.880 reading it on a more granular level than I expected. 0:21:23.920 --> 0:21:26.480 When when the former President Trump is hit with a 0:21:26.520 --> 0:21:29.480 gag order, people mentioned that gag order. They're they're they're 0:21:29.520 --> 0:21:32.399 following some of the the micro developments of this. So 0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:35.159 it really is capturing people's attention. But the partisanship is 0:21:35.240 --> 0:21:38.760 just so entrenched that it's not moving those numbers, and 0:21:38.880 --> 0:21:42.320 the economic issues, as we're seeing in this sing state's poll, 0:21:42.720 --> 0:21:46.360 are dwarfing everything else that people know about these candidates. 0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:51.120 Doesn't the Democratic Party, doesn't the DNC need to do 0:21:51.200 --> 0:21:54.840 more to boost Kamala Harris's profile, because if you're worried 0:21:54.880 --> 0:22:00.440 about President Biden's age, you know, without discussing saying whether 0:22:00.560 --> 0:22:04.320 or not that's a valid concern, you've got to feel 0:22:04.320 --> 0:22:09.080 comfortable with the vice president because in that case, you're casting. 0:22:08.760 --> 0:22:10.719 A vote not just for President Biden. 0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:15.240 But it's I guess you're saying, if you're worried about 0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:19.240 his age, it's likely that you must think Kamala Harris 0:22:19.280 --> 0:22:20.920 could eventually take that spot over. 0:22:22.400 --> 0:22:24.880