1 00:00:01,040 --> 00:00:06,200 Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. It's on target. It 2 00:00:06,400 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: is good. Whoa. 3 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,160 Speaker 2: That's when you have fun when you're kicking somebody's ass 4 00:00:14,200 --> 00:00:15,320 Speaker 2: and they're sucking for win. 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:22,520 Speaker 1: That was good. Ready, go, I'm bomber on the baseline. 6 00:00:22,960 --> 00:00:34,919 Speaker 1: Hell yeah, last way outside, It's possible on the wile event. 7 00:00:37,040 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 1: Then here it is whoa, whoa. 8 00:00:40,159 --> 00:00:43,360 Speaker 2: Welcome into the award winning Action Network podcast. I'm your 9 00:00:43,360 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 2: host today, Brendan Glasheen. The NCAA Men's Tournament rolls on 10 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:51,960 Speaker 2: the sweek sixteen starting Thursday and today we are surfing 11 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:54,560 Speaker 2: the player prop market like we did last week, but 12 00:00:54,640 --> 00:00:59,360 Speaker 2: today eight games to discuss between Thursday and Friday. Joining 13 00:00:59,480 --> 00:01:03,560 Speaker 2: us some familiar faces and voices, Sean Kerner, director of 14 00:01:03,600 --> 00:01:06,560 Speaker 2: predictive Analytics at the Action Network. One of his team members, 15 00:01:07,040 --> 00:01:09,959 Speaker 2: Nick Giffen, he is also an Action Network predictive analyst. 16 00:01:10,319 --> 00:01:12,920 Speaker 2: Doug Ziefel, he contributes over at the Action Network and 17 00:01:13,000 --> 00:01:15,880 Speaker 2: joining us this week Mike Calibraz, who is also an 18 00:01:15,880 --> 00:01:20,080 Speaker 2: Action Network contributor. Gentlemen, great to have you again, Excited 19 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:22,839 Speaker 2: to go through this slate of games. They're getting even 20 00:01:22,880 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 2: better as the weeks go on. As we know, let's 21 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,520 Speaker 2: just quickly go around the horn here. Sean, We'll start 22 00:01:27,560 --> 00:01:30,679 Speaker 2: with you based on how things went for you last 23 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:33,280 Speaker 2: week and some reminders, some things you're keeping in mind 24 00:01:33,319 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 2: as you look at the player prop market for the 25 00:01:34,800 --> 00:01:35,480 Speaker 2: Sweet sixteen. 26 00:01:35,880 --> 00:01:36,080 Speaker 3: Yeah. 27 00:01:36,120 --> 00:01:37,760 Speaker 4: So one of the things I learned was just you know, 28 00:01:37,840 --> 00:01:40,880 Speaker 4: fine tuning my process. Ended up going twenty five and 29 00:01:41,000 --> 00:01:42,920 Speaker 4: ten in player props. So I guess the lesson was 30 00:01:43,000 --> 00:01:45,840 Speaker 4: to trust the process. But I noticed that a lot 31 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:47,680 Speaker 4: of the bets I lost earlier in the week before 32 00:01:47,720 --> 00:01:50,160 Speaker 4: I had a chance really diving in the matchup. So 33 00:01:50,240 --> 00:01:53,520 Speaker 4: my main lesson is, you know, if our productions stick out, 34 00:01:53,240 --> 00:01:55,920 Speaker 4: that's one step in the process. But taking that step 35 00:01:55,960 --> 00:01:58,559 Speaker 4: further is Nick and I, you know, we examine every 36 00:01:58,560 --> 00:02:02,160 Speaker 4: matchup and see what lines up, what makes sense. Once it, 37 00:02:02,320 --> 00:02:04,920 Speaker 4: you know, gets through that process, then it's good to go. 38 00:02:05,040 --> 00:02:07,480 Speaker 4: So just fine tuning the process overall. 39 00:02:07,400 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 1: Nick, how about yourself to piggyback off that, Yeah, exactly. 40 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 5: I mean Sewn and I talk every day about props, 41 00:02:13,080 --> 00:02:15,640 Speaker 5: and you know, when we are on the same prop 42 00:02:15,680 --> 00:02:20,080 Speaker 5: we're actually fifteen and four. Uh So it's really, like 43 00:02:20,120 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 5: Sean said, fine tuning that process. We both got better 44 00:02:22,560 --> 00:02:23,960 Speaker 5: as the week on, and when we were on the 45 00:02:24,000 --> 00:02:26,679 Speaker 5: exact same prop the exact same line fifteen and four. 46 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:28,920 Speaker 5: So make sure you work with your your friends, your colleagues, 47 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:31,359 Speaker 5: and get all your analysis done not just by yourself, 48 00:02:31,440 --> 00:02:33,360 Speaker 5: but maybe with a friend or a group. 49 00:02:33,760 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 2: Doug, how about you some reminders some things that you 50 00:02:36,440 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 2: learned from the round of thirty two in this round 51 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:40,040 Speaker 2: of sixty four last week. 52 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, definitely going forward, especially here with the Sweet sixteen, 53 00:02:43,160 --> 00:02:45,120 Speaker 3: the Elite A coming up, a big thing to consider 54 00:02:45,200 --> 00:02:47,560 Speaker 3: his personnel matchups. You know, competition is going to get 55 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:50,120 Speaker 3: tighter and it's going to be tougher to see your 56 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 3: stars go off like they used to in earlier rounds 57 00:02:52,240 --> 00:02:54,079 Speaker 3: in the tournament or conference tournaments. 58 00:02:54,520 --> 00:02:56,119 Speaker 1: Mike, we didn't have you on last week. 59 00:02:56,280 --> 00:02:59,280 Speaker 2: So just your general approach to the player prop market, 60 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 2: especially in this tournament, in. 61 00:03:01,200 --> 00:03:03,000 Speaker 6: This time of year, I think it's very important to 62 00:03:03,280 --> 00:03:05,799 Speaker 6: separate out data that's just not useful. And in a 63 00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 6: lot of cases, when you have these mid major teams 64 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:10,120 Speaker 6: that maybe you know, top twenty five in terms of 65 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 6: rim rate, defense things like that, but they haven't played 66 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,040 Speaker 6: against true seven footers who have a great skill set, 67 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 6: I'm already visualizing that Purdue versus Saint Pete's matchup. It's 68 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 6: important to be able to separate out useful data from 69 00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,000 Speaker 6: data where it's just it's not apples to apples. So 70 00:03:24,160 --> 00:03:26,280 Speaker 6: I think that's important to keep in mind, and also 71 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 6: just you know, as a broader look at the tournament, 72 00:03:28,840 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 6: this remains a tournament where guards win the day. You know, 73 00:03:31,440 --> 00:03:34,760 Speaker 6: Oscarsibwe absolutely eats against Saint Pete's and then in the 74 00:03:34,880 --> 00:03:36,840 Speaker 6: end he's not able to carry them to a victory. 75 00:03:36,960 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 6: And I think in a lot of cases you're going 76 00:03:38,440 --> 00:03:40,640 Speaker 6: to see that moving forward, where guard play comes at 77 00:03:40,640 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 6: a premium. You know, the usage the ball always being 78 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 6: in these players' hands, you know, in the crunch time, 79 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 6: the crucial moments down the stretch. I think you need 80 00:03:49,120 --> 00:03:51,720 Speaker 6: to fold that into your analysis and your predictions. 81 00:03:52,000 --> 00:03:54,520 Speaker 2: Excellent, great stuff. Let's get to some picks. We'll start 82 00:03:54,560 --> 00:03:58,040 Speaker 2: with Thursday. We've got the West and South regions in action, 83 00:03:58,240 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 2: both in San Francisco and San Antonio respectively. Sean Kerner 84 00:04:02,880 --> 00:04:05,840 Speaker 2: will start with you. You're eyeing Duke Texas Tech. What 85 00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:06,760 Speaker 2: do you have for us? 86 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, So, first prop I love is Paalo Bancho under 87 00:04:10,960 --> 00:04:13,640 Speaker 4: four and a half assists. You can get at minus 88 00:04:13,720 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 4: one sixty five right now, DraftKings, don't let this price 89 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:20,040 Speaker 4: scary away. This prop should be like minus three hundred. 90 00:04:20,400 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 4: He's you know, stayed under this number seventy seven percent 91 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:27,560 Speaker 4: of the time this year. Duke average eighty points a game. However, 92 00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 4: this matchup, you know they're going that's the number one 93 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:34,320 Speaker 4: rank defense and efficiency per Ken Palm and Texas Tech, 94 00:04:34,680 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 4: and their team total is only sixty eight point five. 95 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 4: So you know I'm projecting we're projecting him closer to 96 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,440 Speaker 4: three assists here with about a seventy eight percent chance 97 00:04:42,480 --> 00:04:44,640 Speaker 4: of staying hunder, which is in line with the season pace. 98 00:04:44,760 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 4: So love getting him at minus one sixty five to 99 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 4: go under four and a half assists here, all right, Yeah. 100 00:04:50,200 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 2: And he was kind of held in check in those 101 00:04:52,320 --> 00:04:55,479 Speaker 2: games you mentioned the Michigan State game more notably just 102 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 2: four assists for ban Caro and the two tournament games 103 00:04:59,400 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 2: will move to he Houston, Arizona. 104 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,560 Speaker 1: Shan will stay right with you. You want to eye 105 00:05:02,640 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 1: Josh Carlton. 106 00:05:03,760 --> 00:05:05,400 Speaker 4: Yeah, so I like the over five and a half 107 00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 4: rebounds at minus one thirty over at DraftKings for Josh Carlton. 108 00:05:09,560 --> 00:05:10,920 Speaker 1: This is a fascinating matchup. 109 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:14,279 Speaker 4: Because Houston loves to play slow, Arizona loves to play fast, 110 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,520 Speaker 4: and Arizona can be vulnerable to offense giving up offensive rebounds. 111 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 4: They gave up twenty to TCU on Sunday, and the 112 00:05:21,760 --> 00:05:23,360 Speaker 4: reason they give up so many is that they try 113 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:26,560 Speaker 4: to push the pace, so they clear out immediately, allowing 114 00:05:26,600 --> 00:05:29,760 Speaker 4: for teams to get offensive rebounds. So Josh Carlton ranks 115 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,040 Speaker 4: fifth in offensive rebound rate in the entire country, so 116 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:34,960 Speaker 4: he gets a bit of a boost in this matchup 117 00:05:35,040 --> 00:05:37,920 Speaker 4: and into the faster pace should give them a few 118 00:05:37,960 --> 00:05:41,360 Speaker 4: extra chances at a potential rebound. So we're projecting Carlton 119 00:05:41,400 --> 00:05:44,000 Speaker 4: closer to six and a half rebounds and a sixty 120 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:45,680 Speaker 4: three percent chance in going over. 121 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 1: Five and a half. 122 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:47,960 Speaker 4: So love getting him at minus one thirty here. 123 00:05:48,120 --> 00:05:50,640 Speaker 2: Yeah, if you look at rebounding margin, Arizona this year 124 00:05:50,680 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 2: allows their fair share and that's right to Sean's point. 125 00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:55,520 Speaker 2: They play at a faster pace, which can lead to 126 00:05:55,560 --> 00:05:58,359 Speaker 2: more misses. Let's welcome in Mike once again. Mike Calabres, 127 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:00,000 Speaker 2: You've got thoughts on Carlton, but you're going to take 128 00:06:00,160 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 2: under here. 129 00:06:01,040 --> 00:06:03,599 Speaker 6: Yeah, when you talk about ability, the only ability I 130 00:06:03,640 --> 00:06:06,840 Speaker 6: care about in this prop is you know, availability, and 131 00:06:06,880 --> 00:06:08,560 Speaker 6: it comes down to how many minutes he's going to play. 132 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:10,360 Speaker 6: He's played twenty minutes or fewer in five of this 133 00:06:10,520 --> 00:06:12,400 Speaker 6: last ten, and that's because in half of those games 134 00:06:12,400 --> 00:06:15,240 Speaker 6: he's had four more fouls. And yes, I think Arizona 135 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:16,960 Speaker 6: is vulnerable on the glass, but they are going to 136 00:06:16,960 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 6: be able to throw bodies a'm Coloco to Bellas Ballow 137 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 6: off the bench. I think that's going to be able 138 00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 6: to bother him as the only true big on this 139 00:06:24,200 --> 00:06:26,279 Speaker 6: Houston team. In a lot of cases, they like to 140 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:28,679 Speaker 6: have four guards on the floor. He's the only starter 141 00:06:28,800 --> 00:06:30,880 Speaker 6: over six foot eight, so I think he's going to 142 00:06:30,920 --> 00:06:33,760 Speaker 6: have some issues with foul trouble, and if he does, 143 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 6: going over that ten and a half becomes very difficult 144 00:06:36,400 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 6: to foresee. He's not a guy who you know, puts 145 00:06:38,480 --> 00:06:40,719 Speaker 6: up a lot of shots, has to be highly efficient, 146 00:06:40,839 --> 00:06:42,800 Speaker 6: has to shoot over sixty percent for me really to 147 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,680 Speaker 6: be worried about this going over the ten and a 148 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 6: half and at minus one fifteen. 149 00:06:45,960 --> 00:06:47,000 Speaker 1: I don't mind the Jews either. 150 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,520 Speaker 2: I'm fascinated to see how this game plays out from 151 00:06:49,520 --> 00:06:51,680 Speaker 2: a prop standpoint, but also the pace of play. 152 00:06:51,760 --> 00:06:53,479 Speaker 1: As we've discussed this game. 153 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,920 Speaker 2: It's just it's two very different teams, a complete one 154 00:06:57,000 --> 00:06:59,280 Speaker 2: eighty in terms of pace. Arizona wants to speed it up. 155 00:06:59,320 --> 00:07:02,080 Speaker 2: Houston wants to low it down. Doug, you can jump in. 156 00:07:02,160 --> 00:07:02,360 Speaker 1: Now. 157 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:07,440 Speaker 2: We've got Zags and Arkansas West Region game in San Francisco, 158 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:11,160 Speaker 2: and you're eyeing the Zags, who have that highest implied 159 00:07:11,200 --> 00:07:15,040 Speaker 2: team total. No surprise there projected over eighty points, the 160 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: only team projected over eighty points. You are eyeing someone 161 00:07:17,440 --> 00:07:18,600 Speaker 2: who can knock down the three. 162 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, my first problem is going to be Julian Strawther 163 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:23,480 Speaker 3: over one and a half threes. You can find that 164 00:07:23,520 --> 00:07:26,440 Speaker 3: at a nice price and plus one point twenty at DraftKings. Now, 165 00:07:26,440 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 3: when you look at Strawther, he hasn't exactly gone off 166 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:30,720 Speaker 3: to a great start in the tournament. He's zero for 167 00:07:30,880 --> 00:07:33,440 Speaker 3: nine from behind the arc and through two games. But 168 00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,720 Speaker 3: what I noticed there is the volume and he also 169 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:39,800 Speaker 3: has a history on his side for positive regression. Strother 170 00:07:39,960 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 3: is a thirty seven percent three point shooter, and if 171 00:07:42,760 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 3: there's one place that you're going to get Arkansas, it's 172 00:07:44,960 --> 00:07:46,960 Speaker 3: from behind the arc. There're one hundred and twenty second 173 00:07:46,960 --> 00:07:48,560 Speaker 3: and three point percentage. 174 00:07:48,080 --> 00:07:49,280 Speaker 1: Allow good stuff. 175 00:07:49,360 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 2: Yeah, and I think you know he made all three 176 00:07:51,240 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 2: of his threes just a few games ago against Saint 177 00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,520 Speaker 2: Mary's in a big spot in the. 178 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:56,600 Speaker 1: WCC title game. 179 00:07:56,720 --> 00:08:01,960 Speaker 2: So a couple of tough games and still as Timmy's 180 00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:04,200 Speaker 2: night the other night and the comeback against Memphis. Who's 181 00:08:04,280 --> 00:08:07,000 Speaker 2: to say that it's not Strother's turn, Doug. We'll stay 182 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:10,440 Speaker 2: with you for Arizona Houstonmigo. Back to that game and 183 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 2: you're eyeing a rebounding prop. 184 00:08:12,200 --> 00:08:15,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna heart. I'm gonna target Dalen. Terry's over 185 00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:18,880 Speaker 3: three and a half rebounds minus one thirty five at DraftKings. 186 00:08:19,000 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 3: If you look at Terry, he averages five rebounds a 187 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,320 Speaker 3: game and he's went over this number in four straight games. Now, 188 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:27,520 Speaker 3: Houston is a great offensive rebounding team, and that's where 189 00:08:27,640 --> 00:08:30,200 Speaker 3: Terry's going to do most of his work, grabbing defensive boards. 190 00:08:30,480 --> 00:08:34,679 Speaker 3: And Shawn touchdown with Carlton, Carlton and White here are 191 00:08:34,720 --> 00:08:37,320 Speaker 3: going to be dealing with tu Bellis and Coloco down low. 192 00:08:37,360 --> 00:08:39,280 Speaker 3: So that's going to leave a lot of boards for 193 00:08:39,720 --> 00:08:40,839 Speaker 3: Terry to scoop up. 194 00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: All right, we'll flip flopping a bit here. 195 00:08:42,400 --> 00:08:44,600 Speaker 2: My fault was supposed to go to Nick to discuss 196 00:08:44,640 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 2: the same player, Julian Strother. But you like Strather too, 197 00:08:47,800 --> 00:08:51,040 Speaker 2: Nick Giffin, who not only I mean perhaps he's gonna 198 00:08:51,080 --> 00:08:53,920 Speaker 2: need some threes to get to his point prop for 199 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 2: this game. 200 00:08:54,679 --> 00:08:58,199 Speaker 5: Yeah, absolutely. So you know the thing with Strather is 201 00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:01,600 Speaker 5: if he's going to make two three pointers, then he's 202 00:09:01,600 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 5: probably also gonna go over his points prop. 203 00:09:03,640 --> 00:09:05,199 Speaker 1: So you can get. 204 00:09:05,040 --> 00:09:08,600 Speaker 5: A over ten and a half at minus one tenant DraftKings, 205 00:09:08,600 --> 00:09:12,280 Speaker 5: but I actually like the alternate point of over eleven 206 00:09:12,320 --> 00:09:14,120 Speaker 5: and a half at fandle and you're getting plus one 207 00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 5: oh four. There, we actually have Strawther projected for over 208 00:09:18,880 --> 00:09:21,160 Speaker 5: twelve points, actually all around twelve and a half. So 209 00:09:21,840 --> 00:09:25,640 Speaker 5: in addition everything Doug said, you know, if Strawther scores 210 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:29,080 Speaker 5: two or more three pointers, he's averaged fourteen point seven points. 211 00:09:29,120 --> 00:09:32,840 Speaker 5: When he scores exactly two threes, he averages thirteen points. 212 00:09:32,960 --> 00:09:34,560 Speaker 5: And even if we take the eight games where he's 213 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,480 Speaker 5: made two threes and his two worst one to three 214 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 5: pointer games, he still averages eleven point six. So I 215 00:09:41,600 --> 00:09:44,680 Speaker 5: really like getting the over on Strawther tagging off of 216 00:09:44,760 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 5: Doug here high team total so there aren't too many 217 00:09:48,160 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 5: matchup concerns in this situation, Sophi's gonna go over one 218 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:53,240 Speaker 5: and a half threes, He's probably gonna go over ten 219 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,240 Speaker 5: and a half or even over eleven and a half points. 220 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:59,040 Speaker 2: So just to clarify, Doug is on Strowther over one 221 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:01,839 Speaker 2: and a half, made three plus money on DraftKings, and 222 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:06,040 Speaker 2: then Nick piggybacking off that likes the over alternate line 223 00:10:06,080 --> 00:10:09,280 Speaker 2: eleven and a half points plus money on fan Duel. 224 00:10:09,440 --> 00:10:13,200 Speaker 2: So another situation where we're targeting the same game here 225 00:10:13,200 --> 00:10:15,960 Speaker 2: on this Action Network episode of player Props for the 226 00:10:16,080 --> 00:10:19,439 Speaker 2: NCAA tournament. Nick will stay with you, sir, you are 227 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,200 Speaker 2: now going back. We started the episode in terms of picks. 228 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:25,920 Speaker 2: We started with Texas Tech and Duke, and you're gonna 229 00:10:25,920 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 2: look on the Texas Tech side here. 230 00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:28,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly. 231 00:10:28,880 --> 00:10:32,360 Speaker 5: So I have Kevin mccullor over two and a half 232 00:10:32,520 --> 00:10:36,560 Speaker 5: assists and that's actually even money on DraftKings. And this 233 00:10:36,640 --> 00:10:38,480 Speaker 5: was actually the first prop I picked out. 234 00:10:38,640 --> 00:10:39,360 Speaker 1: All week here. 235 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 5: It just it caught my eye even before we had 236 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 5: this pop up back Action Labs that stood out to me. 237 00:10:45,360 --> 00:10:48,880 Speaker 5: So we have mccullor projected for three point four assists. 238 00:10:49,600 --> 00:10:51,840 Speaker 5: First of all, he's getting a minute's boost he's returned 239 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 5: from injury and now he's going to see him probably 240 00:10:54,520 --> 00:10:58,760 Speaker 5: over thirty minutes. Duke also matches up perfectly for him 241 00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:00,520 Speaker 5: to get a lot of assists. They fall at the 242 00:11:00,559 --> 00:11:03,160 Speaker 5: second lowest rate in the nation, so eighty eight percent 243 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:04,960 Speaker 5: of point scored against Duke come from the field. 244 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:06,360 Speaker 1: That means more assists. 245 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,360 Speaker 5: Duke is two hundred and seventeenth in defensive rebound rate, 246 00:11:09,520 --> 00:11:11,800 Speaker 5: so if Texas Tech can grab some more of those 247 00:11:11,800 --> 00:11:13,480 Speaker 5: rebounds and kick him out, maybe there can be some 248 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,760 Speaker 5: second chance assist opportunities. Duke doesn't force turnovers. They're three 249 00:11:17,840 --> 00:11:20,800 Speaker 5: hundred and ninth in turnover percent, so more Texas Tech 250 00:11:20,840 --> 00:11:22,920 Speaker 5: possessions will end by way of a shot. 251 00:11:23,360 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: So all of these. 252 00:11:24,160 --> 00:11:27,040 Speaker 5: Things are just more shot attempts, more assists, and even 253 00:11:27,040 --> 00:11:29,920 Speaker 5: when Texas Tech makes a field goal, Duke allows a 254 00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:33,280 Speaker 5: higher assist per field goal made rate than the national average. 255 00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:35,439 Speaker 5: So this is just a perfect setup here for m 256 00:11:35,520 --> 00:11:36,840 Speaker 5: Color to go over this two and a half. 257 00:11:36,800 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 2: Number less follows called on a coach k team and 258 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,199 Speaker 2: his final hurrah makes makes too much sense. I mean, 259 00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:43,880 Speaker 2: that was what stood out in a Michigan State game 260 00:11:43,920 --> 00:11:46,080 Speaker 2: down the stretch, like no calls against coach k What 261 00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:48,240 Speaker 2: a surprise there to keep the magic going for the 262 00:11:48,320 --> 00:11:49,120 Speaker 2: Duke Blue Devils. 263 00:11:49,640 --> 00:11:51,439 Speaker 1: Moving on, Mike. 264 00:11:51,280 --> 00:11:54,520 Speaker 2: Calibreys is going to hop back in Zags Hogs West 265 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:55,520 Speaker 2: Region and San Franz. 266 00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:57,360 Speaker 1: What do you got for us? Another three point prop? 267 00:11:57,720 --> 00:11:59,600 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean this is going to be a high 268 00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 6: scoring game, and honestly, I think this number is affected 269 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 6: by the overall look. At the beginning, I said, you know, 270 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:08,480 Speaker 6: comparing apples to apples. Gonzaga has gone under in their 271 00:12:08,520 --> 00:12:10,439 Speaker 6: non conference game eight out of the fifteen times. 272 00:12:10,440 --> 00:12:12,600 Speaker 1: But I don't care about that. I care about when they're. 273 00:12:12,440 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 6: Playing up tempo teams and when you look across their 274 00:12:15,200 --> 00:12:17,760 Speaker 6: non conference schedule, Bama it blows by the number by 275 00:12:17,760 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 6: ten points, Memphis just in the last round by six, 276 00:12:20,480 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 6: and then in the WCC down the stretch Santa Clair 277 00:12:23,320 --> 00:12:25,800 Speaker 6: at twenty six in pace goes by thirty four points 278 00:12:25,840 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 6: over the closing number, Pepperdine forty four points, Portland nineteen points. 279 00:12:29,600 --> 00:12:32,000 Speaker 6: Here comes the Hogs twenty eighth and tempo. They're not 280 00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:33,800 Speaker 6: going to be able to resist running up and down 281 00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 6: and Stanley Nude over two and a half threes at 282 00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:39,440 Speaker 6: plus money plus one twenty five. I love this one. 283 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:41,640 Speaker 6: Across his last twelve games, he's averaged six and a 284 00:12:41,679 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 6: half three point attempts per game. This number has hit 285 00:12:44,280 --> 00:12:46,679 Speaker 6: in five of his last seven And really, I think 286 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:49,040 Speaker 6: when you get into the micro element of this, what 287 00:12:49,080 --> 00:12:51,600 Speaker 6: does he like to do? It's the catch and shoot threes. 288 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:54,840 Speaker 6: According to shot Quality, he's in the ninetieth percentile nationally 289 00:12:54,880 --> 00:12:58,920 Speaker 6: and open catch and shoot three opportunities. Gonzaga struggles with 290 00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:01,960 Speaker 6: spacing defensively two hundred and fifty fourth nationally, and that 291 00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,319 Speaker 6: leads to them leading leaving shooters wide open from three 292 00:13:05,320 --> 00:13:07,480 Speaker 6: point range one hundred and thirty second nationally according to 293 00:13:07,480 --> 00:13:10,640 Speaker 6: shock Quality. So it's all folding together for me. I 294 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 6: love this and the fact that I'm getting a little 295 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:13,839 Speaker 6: action on my money makes it all the better. 296 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a good call. 297 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:17,400 Speaker 2: Zags are one of the top teams in pace in 298 00:13:17,440 --> 00:13:19,800 Speaker 2: the country and Arkansas is not too far behind, top 299 00:13:19,840 --> 00:13:22,680 Speaker 2: thirty in the nation in pace up and down game 300 00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:25,280 Speaker 2: highest total on the slate at one point fifty five. 301 00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:28,520 Speaker 2: I'm reading right now over on DraftKings, so could be 302 00:13:28,559 --> 00:13:31,480 Speaker 2: an up and down affair, and Arkansas has proven that 303 00:13:31,559 --> 00:13:34,240 Speaker 2: it can knock down the three when it needs to. 304 00:13:34,240 --> 00:13:37,319 Speaker 2: To keep up with a team like Gonzaga to stay 305 00:13:37,400 --> 00:13:40,120 Speaker 2: in that game. We are moving on to Friday of 306 00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 2: the Sweet Sixteen again, you're locked into the Action Network podcast. 307 00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 2: We are dissecting the player prop market with us. We 308 00:13:47,000 --> 00:13:50,360 Speaker 2: have Sean Kerner, director of predictive Analytics. 309 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 1: Nick Giffen is on his team. 310 00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 2: Nick is here, Doug z Phil Mike Calibre is their 311 00:13:53,960 --> 00:13:56,960 Speaker 2: Action Network contributors Brendan Glasheen. Great to have you joining us. 312 00:13:57,040 --> 00:14:00,920 Speaker 2: We moved to Friday's slate of games. We've got Saint Peter's, 313 00:14:00,960 --> 00:14:06,439 Speaker 2: Purdue Providence, Kansas UNC, and UCLA, Iowa State Miami. We 314 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:08,920 Speaker 2: got more action on the Thursday games. As the guys 315 00:14:08,960 --> 00:14:10,880 Speaker 2: mentioned off the top, a little earlier in the week, 316 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:12,959 Speaker 2: you have a chance to really process things and once 317 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:14,920 Speaker 2: we get closer to Friday, keep an eye on these 318 00:14:14,920 --> 00:14:17,199 Speaker 2: guys on their social media accounts when they've got a 319 00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,800 Speaker 2: little more of a feel of what's going on. But Doug, 320 00:14:19,840 --> 00:14:22,120 Speaker 2: we'll start with you. We're going to go to Kansas 321 00:14:22,160 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 2: Providence for these first two picks. Doug, You've got one 322 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:26,920 Speaker 2: for us in the rebounding department. 323 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:30,120 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm Ey'm Jalen Wilson's over six and a half 324 00:14:30,160 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 3: rebounds prop. You can get that from minus one thirty 325 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:35,080 Speaker 3: five at DraftKings. If you look at Wilson, he averages 326 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:37,640 Speaker 3: seven point two boards per game, and he had fourteen 327 00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:40,880 Speaker 3: boards against Creighton, taking advantage of a lot of their injuries. 328 00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:44,360 Speaker 3: But if you look at this matchup Providence, for all 329 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:46,840 Speaker 3: their glitz and glamour and the wins and everyone's saying 330 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 3: they're lucky, the one thing that they don't really do 331 00:14:49,000 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 3: that well is a rebound. They're ninety ninth in offensive 332 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,800 Speaker 3: rebounding rate and one hundred and fortieth in defensive rebounding rate. 333 00:14:54,920 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 3: But even Doug a little deeper here. So Providence's main 334 00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,480 Speaker 3: rebounder is their big man, Nate Watson, And if you 335 00:15:00,520 --> 00:15:06,520 Speaker 3: compare Watson to Jalen Wilson's rebounding rates, Watson has a 336 00:15:06,520 --> 00:15:10,040 Speaker 3: seven point nine offensive rebounding rate to Wilson six point one. 337 00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 3: But the gap is flipped and it's much bigger on 338 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 3: the defensive end. Wilson is a twenty point point eight 339 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:20,360 Speaker 3: defensive rebounding rate versus Watson's thirteen point three. So in 340 00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 3: the end, Wilson's going to wind up with more defensive 341 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:25,280 Speaker 3: opportunities and should have a good chance to go well 342 00:15:25,320 --> 00:15:26,080 Speaker 3: over this number. 343 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,760 Speaker 6: Joe, as someone who has a Kansas future, I'm a 344 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 6: little bit more interested in the Jayhawks this year. I 345 00:15:31,120 --> 00:15:33,000 Speaker 6: do notice it's kind of feast or famine with him 346 00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,160 Speaker 6: to a certain degree, and when he does hit over 347 00:15:35,200 --> 00:15:37,320 Speaker 6: on his numbers, he has four digit rebound games just 348 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 6: in the last month. Do you advocate it all potentially 349 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:41,840 Speaker 6: going on an alternate line if you can find it 350 00:15:41,840 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 6: to get plus money. 351 00:15:43,000 --> 00:15:45,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean definitely, that's a great idea as here. 352 00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,960 Speaker 3: Like I said with Watson, the thing is he's Wilson's 353 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 3: going to be at a size disadvantage. But you look 354 00:15:50,960 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 3: at Watson, He's not really a great rebounder overall. You know, 355 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:56,200 Speaker 3: he only averages what four to four and a half 356 00:15:56,280 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 3: rebounds a game, And you might even have McCormick factor 357 00:15:59,000 --> 00:16:00,240 Speaker 3: in to take him out of a lot out of 358 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:03,000 Speaker 3: defensive rebounding situations. So the reason why I did not 359 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 3: opt with McCormick is because his minutes have been varying 360 00:16:06,600 --> 00:16:10,040 Speaker 3: depending on foul situation as an opponent. So if McCormick 361 00:16:10,120 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 3: is on the floor more, there may be even more 362 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 3: opportunities for Wilson. 363 00:16:13,600 --> 00:16:16,760 Speaker 2: Watson at five point three per game. But look at 364 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:19,600 Speaker 2: his game logs. Richmond win four rebounds, that was a blowout. 365 00:16:19,640 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 2: To be fair, South Dakota State three rebounds, Creighton one rebound, 366 00:16:23,680 --> 00:16:25,560 Speaker 2: and Creyton was in the another blowout game in the 367 00:16:25,560 --> 00:16:27,840 Speaker 2: first round of the Big East Tournament. The other factor, too, 368 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,360 Speaker 2: you got to consider when you get all that size Kansas, 369 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:33,920 Speaker 2: just along the front line, just more size. Watson followed 370 00:16:33,920 --> 00:16:36,040 Speaker 2: trouble situation too, is something to keep an eye out for, 371 00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 2: and that was that's been a huge problem for Providence 372 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:40,760 Speaker 2: in all of their close games, says because again, if 373 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:43,480 Speaker 2: you tell Providence fans that they're lucky, oh my gosh, 374 00:16:43,480 --> 00:16:45,720 Speaker 2: they will lose their minds. But yes, I think for 375 00:16:45,720 --> 00:16:47,800 Speaker 2: for Watson's sake, you better stay out of follow trouble. 376 00:16:48,280 --> 00:16:50,360 Speaker 2: In your case, Doug, you hope he kind of gets 377 00:16:50,360 --> 00:16:52,360 Speaker 2: some followed trouble because that could pave way for Wilson 378 00:16:52,760 --> 00:16:54,480 Speaker 2: for a big night on the glass. We're going to 379 00:16:54,520 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 2: stay on this game, Kansas, Providence, the Midwest Region in Chicago, 380 00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:01,080 Speaker 2: Nick Giffen has a pick for us. I'm looking forward 381 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,119 Speaker 2: to this one because man, there is a big, big, 382 00:17:04,160 --> 00:17:05,000 Speaker 2: big number here. 383 00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:05,240 Speaker 1: Sir. 384 00:17:05,800 --> 00:17:08,640 Speaker 5: Yeah, we're we're actually looking at a player to score 385 00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:11,480 Speaker 5: the most points in this game, and that's gonna be 386 00:17:11,480 --> 00:17:15,679 Speaker 5: o Chaigbaji. We have him, so this line is at 387 00:17:15,680 --> 00:17:19,760 Speaker 5: plus three hundred at FanDuel. We have him actually scoring 388 00:17:19,760 --> 00:17:22,320 Speaker 5: the most points about forty two percent of the time, 389 00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:24,199 Speaker 5: so that would be fair odds at about plus one 390 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 5: forty So plus three hundred is like a great line. 391 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,320 Speaker 5: We have him projected for seventeen point eight points and 392 00:17:29,359 --> 00:17:32,080 Speaker 5: the next closest player in the whole game on either 393 00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,720 Speaker 5: side is Christian Brawn at thirteen point four projection. Now, 394 00:17:35,920 --> 00:17:38,640 Speaker 5: there are some concerns with Igbaji's His scoring has been 395 00:17:38,680 --> 00:17:41,480 Speaker 5: down lately, but it's not because of usage or minutes. 396 00:17:41,960 --> 00:17:44,200 Speaker 5: This year, he's been used in twenty four percent of possessions, 397 00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:46,600 Speaker 5: and he's hit that twenty four percent number or more 398 00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,199 Speaker 5: in each of his last five games. The problem has 399 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:51,840 Speaker 5: been his efficiency. In eight of his last nine games, 400 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:55,720 Speaker 5: he's been under his season long average offensive efficiency. Still, 401 00:17:56,119 --> 00:17:57,960 Speaker 5: he was the leading scorer in two of those nine 402 00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,159 Speaker 5: games in the whole game, and three times as a 403 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,120 Speaker 5: leading scorer on his team even with an efficiency hit, 404 00:18:03,200 --> 00:18:06,080 Speaker 5: So any return to his mean efficiency will give him 405 00:18:06,080 --> 00:18:08,919 Speaker 5: a really good shot of becoming the leading scorer in 406 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:12,120 Speaker 5: this whole game. There are really any particular matchup concerns here. 407 00:18:12,160 --> 00:18:14,240 Speaker 5: He's an all around guy. He can get it done 408 00:18:14,240 --> 00:18:16,120 Speaker 5: from three, can drive it and hit a two pointer. 409 00:18:16,160 --> 00:18:18,520 Speaker 5: He'll get to the line a lot. So I really 410 00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:21,520 Speaker 5: like plus three hundred on FanDuel when we're saying about 411 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:23,600 Speaker 5: one and a half to one is fair odds. 412 00:18:23,920 --> 00:18:26,240 Speaker 2: Remy Martin's been their guy off the bench the last 413 00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:29,200 Speaker 2: couple of games, but with Providence in their guard depth, 414 00:18:29,240 --> 00:18:32,399 Speaker 2: I think Martin can be canceled out potentially, and I 415 00:18:32,520 --> 00:18:34,439 Speaker 2: like the pick to go to a bigger guy to 416 00:18:34,520 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 2: have a big night. And also the Jayhawks, they've gotten 417 00:18:37,400 --> 00:18:39,760 Speaker 2: high implied team total across the Sweet sixteen. 418 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:42,160 Speaker 1: You got the Zags and he got Purdue. 419 00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:43,920 Speaker 2: Sean he moved to Purdue, and you're going to go 420 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 2: to the star player on that side for a similar prop. 421 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:49,320 Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm also sticking with the top scorer market here 422 00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:52,000 Speaker 4: and I'm taking Jayden Ivy for Purdue to score the 423 00:18:52,040 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 4: most points in the Saint Peter's Purdue matchup at plus 424 00:18:55,320 --> 00:18:58,600 Speaker 4: one sixty over at FanDuel. So, starting on the Saint 425 00:18:58,600 --> 00:19:00,639 Speaker 4: Peter's side, you know they only have a team total 426 00:19:00,680 --> 00:19:02,960 Speaker 4: of sixty and a half right here, and they play 427 00:19:03,000 --> 00:19:05,880 Speaker 4: with a very deep nine to ten man rotation. Their 428 00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:10,000 Speaker 4: forty percent bench minutes played ranked seventeenth in the country 429 00:19:10,040 --> 00:19:11,960 Speaker 4: at crona Kin Palm, so they love to tap in 430 00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 4: their bench and that makes it tougher for one individual 431 00:19:14,840 --> 00:19:17,240 Speaker 4: player to have a ceiling game. So I don't think 432 00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:19,439 Speaker 4: it's going to come from the Saint Peter's side. On 433 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,360 Speaker 4: produce side, Jay and Ivy is their leading scorer. Now, 434 00:19:22,400 --> 00:19:24,600 Speaker 4: the two players are the best shot about scoring him 435 00:19:24,600 --> 00:19:27,760 Speaker 4: are the two big men, Zach Edy and Trevion Williams, 436 00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:30,800 Speaker 4: but both players only play around twenty minutes, so that 437 00:19:30,920 --> 00:19:32,760 Speaker 4: lowers are ceiling at TAD. They kind of have to 438 00:19:32,760 --> 00:19:35,679 Speaker 4: go off in their limited playing time, which could happen 439 00:19:35,760 --> 00:19:38,440 Speaker 4: to an undersized Saint Peter's team for sure. But the 440 00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:41,280 Speaker 4: last ten games these two players have combined for two 441 00:19:41,320 --> 00:19:45,240 Speaker 4: games of twenty plus points, whereas Ivy is five games. 442 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: Of twenty or more points. 443 00:19:46,359 --> 00:19:49,040 Speaker 4: So we're giving him around a fifty to fifty chance 444 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:51,159 Speaker 4: of being the leading scorer of this game, and you 445 00:19:51,160 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 4: can get him at plus one sixty, So that's a steal. 446 00:19:53,760 --> 00:19:55,800 Speaker 2: Very nice and like I mentioned, Boiler Makers. They have 447 00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:59,080 Speaker 2: an implied team total of seventy four. That's right behind Kansas. 448 00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 2: That is the third high, bighest of the sixteen teams 449 00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:04,440 Speaker 2: playing this weekend. 450 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:06,800 Speaker 1: We're exploring the Friday market to take us home. Micha. 451 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:09,560 Speaker 2: Will go back to you, Mike Calibres, you've got an 452 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:10,520 Speaker 2: eye on Miami. 453 00:20:10,640 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 6: Iowa State Ameron mcgusty over sixteen and a half. It's 454 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,399 Speaker 6: actually only minus one of six over at FanDuel and 455 00:20:17,480 --> 00:20:19,200 Speaker 6: I think this is a bit of recency bias. He's 456 00:20:19,240 --> 00:20:22,160 Speaker 6: gone over from three point range during the NCAA tournaments. 457 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 6: I see a positive regression on the horizon for him. 458 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,600 Speaker 6: But then when it comes down to Iowa State, they 459 00:20:26,640 --> 00:20:29,040 Speaker 6: have the fifth rank defense according to Ken Pom, and 460 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 6: you do have to squint a little bit to see 461 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 6: any you know, vulnerabilities when it comes to the Cyclones. 462 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:34,320 Speaker 1: But here's the thing. 463 00:20:34,640 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 6: On open catching threes, mcgusty is ninetieth percentile in the country, 464 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:41,800 Speaker 6: Iowa State defending them one hundred and eighth nationally. Miami 465 00:20:41,880 --> 00:20:44,119 Speaker 6: also the most efficient team in transition in all of 466 00:20:44,160 --> 00:20:47,320 Speaker 6: college basketball. Iowa State seventy ninth in transition defense. And 467 00:20:47,400 --> 00:20:50,080 Speaker 6: really what Iowa State does is by the combination of 468 00:20:50,119 --> 00:20:52,639 Speaker 6: pace and being aggressive and taking the ball away. They 469 00:20:52,680 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 6: limit those possessions. Miami is great with ball security. They 470 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,600 Speaker 6: have no issue, you know, breaking press and keeping their 471 00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 6: turnover into single digits, because that's exactly what Iowa State did. 472 00:21:02,840 --> 00:21:06,360 Speaker 6: Nineteen turnovers against LSU, seventeen against Wisconsin. That's how they 473 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:09,080 Speaker 6: cracked those two teams. So I see them making the 474 00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,359 Speaker 6: most of their opportunities. Mcgusty burying a couple threes and 475 00:21:12,400 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 6: then really looking for the comps when they played against 476 00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:19,520 Speaker 6: elite shooting guards Johnny Davis seventeen points, Terrence Shannon Junior 477 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:22,520 Speaker 6: fifteen points, right at the cusp of that number, Akiinjo twenty, 478 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 6: Abaji twenty two points. 479 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:24,800 Speaker 1: I like what I see. 480 00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,640 Speaker 6: And then finally, in terms of facing top fifty defenses 481 00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:29,800 Speaker 6: at the ACC, there was only three this year unc 482 00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,120 Speaker 6: Duke and Wake. You know what he did in those games. 483 00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,119 Speaker 6: He averaged nineteen points per game. So I think this 484 00:21:34,200 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 6: is off by about a point and a half, and 485 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,959 Speaker 6: I'm happy to take it under that minus one ten 486 00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:39,800 Speaker 6: all the way down to minus one of six over 487 00:21:39,840 --> 00:21:40,320 Speaker 6: at FanDuel. 488 00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:41,000 Speaker 1: Good stuff. 489 00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,919 Speaker 2: Yeah, Miami taking care of the basketball all season long. 490 00:21:44,080 --> 00:21:48,760 Speaker 2: Number six in the nation in fewest turnovers committed per game. Gentlemen, 491 00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:53,080 Speaker 2: awesome stuff, great work, good luck. Very interested to see 492 00:21:53,119 --> 00:21:55,440 Speaker 2: how this plays out. As Nick and Sean shared, they 493 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,159 Speaker 2: had a great week last week in the round of 494 00:21:58,720 --> 00:22:00,840 Speaker 2: sixty four to get the week and started. So we 495 00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,760 Speaker 2: look forward to seeing how you guys do this coming weekend. 496 00:22:03,800 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 4: Again. 497 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 2: You got four games Thursday, four games Friday, So once 498 00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,800 Speaker 2: again I want to thanks Sean Kerner, director of predictive 499 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,879 Speaker 2: Analytics at the Action Network, Nick Giffin, predictive analyst at 500 00:22:11,880 --> 00:22:15,280 Speaker 2: the Action Network, as well doug's Ethel and Mike Calabres. 501 00:22:15,280 --> 00:22:17,439 Speaker 1: They are both contributors at the Action Network. 502 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:19,240 Speaker 2: Be sure to check these guys out over on the 503 00:22:19,320 --> 00:22:21,639 Speaker 2: social channels as well. They do great work for us 504 00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,320 Speaker 2: here at Action Network. My name is Brendan Glasheen. Thanks 505 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 2: for tuning into the Action Network podcast. We'll be back 506 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:30,639 Speaker 2: again next week to get you set for the Final four, baby, 507 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,800 Speaker 2: So we'll be here for the Final four and maybe 508 00:22:32,800 --> 00:22:35,080 Speaker 2: even look ahead of the National Championship game if and 509 00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:38,240 Speaker 2: when we can break it down to figure out what 510 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,359 Speaker 2: exactly we can be eyeing in the player prop market. 511 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:42,720 Speaker 2: But looking forward to it next week on the Action 512 00:22:42,800 --> 00:22:43,560 Speaker 2: Network podcast