WEBVTT - Carnival CEO Says Vaccinated Can 'Come Aboard'

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Week here on Bloomberg Radio, on YouTube and of course

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<v Speaker 1>around the world. Here what we are going to get

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<v Speaker 1>into is in the cruise industry, because we are here

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<v Speaker 1>with one of the CEOs of the world's lord. We

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<v Speaker 1>are here with the CEO, i should say, of the

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<v Speaker 1>world's largest cruise operator, the company by the way, launching

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<v Speaker 1>its first cruise from a US port. They did that

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<v Speaker 1>on July three out of Galveston, followed by their first

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<v Speaker 1>cruise from Port Miami that was on July four. He

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<v Speaker 1>was there and then Carnival Breeze setting sale today out

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<v Speaker 1>of Galveston. That's happening at four thirty pm Eastern, So

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<v Speaker 1>let's get to it with Arnold Donald, Presidency of Carnival. Arnold,

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<v Speaker 1>it is great to have you back with us. I

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<v Speaker 1>feel like you and I have been talking about a restart,

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<v Speaker 1>things getting back closer to normal for a long time.

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<v Speaker 1>How does it feel You've been waiting a long time

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<v Speaker 1>for this, especially to see those ships out of US ports.

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<v Speaker 1>You know, Carol, good afternoon, first of all, but it

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<v Speaker 1>is a phenomenally exciting, fulfilling feeling, not just because we

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<v Speaker 1>get to welcome guests back on board our ships, but

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<v Speaker 1>also because there's so many people who are dependent on

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<v Speaker 1>cruise for their livelihood, you know, port workers, uh, uber drivers,

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<v Speaker 1>taxi drivers, the destinations around the world all have um

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<v Speaker 1>so many people depending on the industry and people providing

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<v Speaker 1>provisions to the ships and servicing the ships. So it's

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<v Speaker 1>a very exciting time to have guest operations once again

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<v Speaker 1>out of the US. How's it going so far with

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<v Speaker 1>these ships that you have, And I know you've had

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<v Speaker 1>ships going on over in Europe, so you know you've

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<v Speaker 1>you have some experience in how things go post pandemic.

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<v Speaker 1>How about with the U S ship specifically, because I

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<v Speaker 1>believe off the Galveston ship passengers have already come off.

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<v Speaker 1>How did it go? Is there any COVID cases where

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<v Speaker 1>there are any concerns? You know, it's gone exceedingly well.

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<v Speaker 1>The ships in Europe, as you pointed out, for our

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<v Speaker 1>Costa and out brands, have been saving h sailing under

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<v Speaker 1>different protocols because largely there are people are on vaccinated,

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<v Speaker 1>so physical distancing, um, universal testing, additional medical screening, et cetera.

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<v Speaker 1>So far here in the US, we've been sailing under

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<v Speaker 1>the Conditional Sale Order issued by the Center for Disease Control,

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<v Speaker 1>which focuses on having most of the guests vaccinated and

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<v Speaker 1>that allows for more open cruise, and they've gone very

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<v Speaker 1>very very well. We just got the net promoter scores

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<v Speaker 1>back from the guests and it's the highest scores we've

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<v Speaker 1>had and and quite some time. Unlike a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>the other folks sailing, we had a lot of people

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<v Speaker 1>on our ship. We had over twenty six d guests

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<v Speaker 1>on one ship over another. We've already into our second

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<v Speaker 1>week of cruising those ships with even more guests on

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<v Speaker 1>board and the experience has just been fantastic, and it's

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<v Speaker 1>it's a very rewarding feeling to finally be get back

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<v Speaker 1>out s c um exceeding guests expectations and and just

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<v Speaker 1>developing lifelong memories for people. Arnold, give us an idea

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<v Speaker 1>about demand right now, because twenty nineteen was a record

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<v Speaker 1>year in terms of bookings. Where are you right now, kay, tim,

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<v Speaker 1>Where we are right now is what we've told you

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<v Speaker 1>back in June. Between quarters were publicly traded companies, so

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<v Speaker 1>we can only say so much. But at that time

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<v Speaker 1>we indicated that our bookings second half of twenty two

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<v Speaker 1>were well in excess of nineteens kind of record bookings,

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<v Speaker 1>same point in time. Uh. And right now, it's hard

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<v Speaker 1>to talk a lot of about occompascy and whatnot because

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<v Speaker 1>of all the rules and regulations and restrictions and what

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<v Speaker 1>have you, and some things we self impose on ourselves,

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<v Speaker 1>for example in Europe, where we've absolutely reduced the number

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<v Speaker 1>because of the additional protocols in place for those unvaccinated cruises.

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<v Speaker 1>But to make a long story short, demand is robust.

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<v Speaker 1>We have plenty of demand. UM. We're bringing the ships

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<v Speaker 1>just in UM a few at a time, we have

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<v Speaker 1>eighty five ships in total. Today's sailing in the US,

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<v Speaker 1>we've had three we're about to launch uh new sailing

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<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned, and a Breeze which will be our

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<v Speaker 1>fourth one, and then we'll have three ships in Seattle

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<v Speaker 1>later this month, and then July one Marti Gras Carnival,

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<v Speaker 1>uh so our newer ship and uh just an unbelievably

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<v Speaker 1>fabulous ship with the first roller coaster a s first

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<v Speaker 1>roller coaster at sea. Can you give us an idea

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<v Speaker 1>of pricing power that you have right now? Considering demand

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<v Speaker 1>is so strong and look this, I'm asking this question

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<v Speaker 1>the context of the inflation data that we got earlier

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<v Speaker 1>this week. People are getting back out there. Companies are

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<v Speaker 1>raising prices because demand is so high. What is your

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<v Speaker 1>pricing power right now? Yeah, well, pricing is strong, there's

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<v Speaker 1>no question about it. Um. You know, there's far more

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<v Speaker 1>demand than there are cabins available, especially here in the

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<v Speaker 1>US with the sailors we have. So pricing is strong

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<v Speaker 1>and we expected to continue to be strong, not only

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<v Speaker 1>because we're the best vacation experience there is, but we're

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<v Speaker 1>the best vacation value there is, even with strong or

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<v Speaker 1>pricing compared to equid on land based vacation, and so

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<v Speaker 1>we're expecting a robust environment and demand, which leads so

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<v Speaker 1>robust environment for pricing, especially with the staggered introduction of

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<v Speaker 1>ships coming back in, which is going to happen you

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<v Speaker 1>know over time, is destinations begin to open again? Are

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<v Speaker 1>pricing similar to what we had pre pandemic? Aren't? Are

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<v Speaker 1>we seeing it similar to that? Or is there a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit more flexibility? Um? Right now, I would say

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<v Speaker 1>if again, if you look at bookings. So I can

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<v Speaker 1>only say what what I've said during the business subding.

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<v Speaker 1>But the fact is pricing is stronger, is stronger than

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<v Speaker 1>what it was. So you know what's interesting too is

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<v Speaker 1>I have to wonder Arnold, you know, you came in

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<v Speaker 1>after some crises at the ship, really righted the company.

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<v Speaker 1>I do wonder how difficult though it is um to

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<v Speaker 1>kind of assess your outlook for this industry, especially you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we talk every day about the delta variant and the

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<v Speaker 1>increases that we're seeing once again. Right, and you have

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<v Speaker 1>different rules and regulations. We just had a headline Canada

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<v Speaker 1>to lift the ban on large cruise ships as of

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<v Speaker 1>November first. That just crossed a few minutes ago across

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<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg. How difficult is it to assess the outlook

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<v Speaker 1>and get get ahold of the business, especially when once

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<v Speaker 1>again we have something like the delta variant. Well, I

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<v Speaker 1>think so several comments. First, everyone should give backs is

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<v Speaker 1>the best way to protect themselves and those that they love.

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<v Speaker 1>So everyone should try to get a vaccination less they

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<v Speaker 1>have a medical reason, are deep religious belief uh to

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<v Speaker 1>not other than that they should get vaccinated. Heaven said

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<v Speaker 1>that there will be other variants. There's a delta varian,

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<v Speaker 1>will be other variants. And what we have to do

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<v Speaker 1>is learn as a society overall how to live with

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<v Speaker 1>this virus and the various variants that can come. And

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<v Speaker 1>the best way to do that is to take the

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<v Speaker 1>advanced medical uh knowledge that exists and take advantage of it.

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<v Speaker 1>So vaccinations now, later, there's also advanced treatments. If if

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<v Speaker 1>someone does happen to contract the virus and having challenges

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<v Speaker 1>with it and so and then the other measures we

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<v Speaker 1>need to take. If there's a variant that shows up

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<v Speaker 1>which hasn't happened yet that is threatening to those who

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<v Speaker 1>are vaccinated, UH, then we'll have to return the protocols

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<v Speaker 1>of mask wearing and physical distancing and things we've learned

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<v Speaker 1>until the medicine catch us up, you know, with that

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<v Speaker 1>particular variant. So keep in mind we've dealt with viruses

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<v Speaker 1>for decades um. The cruise innistrant has had to deal

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<v Speaker 1>with ebola and zekea and SARS and mers and and

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<v Speaker 1>the world has had to uh and now on the

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<v Speaker 1>world is getting a grip on this particular virus and

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<v Speaker 1>plot us to all the scientists and technologists and all

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<v Speaker 1>the people, the first responders, everyone that has gotten us

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<v Speaker 1>to have gotten us to this point, which is a

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<v Speaker 1>phenomenal thing, from something that we didn't even understand fifteen

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<v Speaker 1>months ago, to multiple vaccines, advanced treatments, you know, known

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<v Speaker 1>protocols to mitigate spread, and if we act responsibly, we

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<v Speaker 1>can manage this. We are talking with Arnold Donald, of course,

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<v Speaker 1>the CEO of Carnival Corporation. We do want to welcome

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<v Speaker 1>all of our viewers on Bloomberg TV. We are live

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<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg TV, Bloomberg Radio and on YouTube. Here Arnald,

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<v Speaker 1>let me push a little bit on the delta variant.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, how does the delta variant at all impact

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<v Speaker 1>your restart, especially here in the United States. As we said,

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<v Speaker 1>Carnival Breeze going out UH shortly later this afternoon. Um

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<v Speaker 1>does it. Are you seeing any impact on bookings or

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<v Speaker 1>any cancelations as a result of that? I know we

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<v Speaker 1>have not. We have not seen a major impact. Again,

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<v Speaker 1>I think the scientists around the world are pretty much

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<v Speaker 1>aligned around the fact that being vaccinated UH prevents two things.

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<v Speaker 1>One is possibility of contracting a virus. But then if

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<v Speaker 1>you do contract it, um probability that you have any

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<v Speaker 1>serious effects from it. It also appears, and there's a

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<v Speaker 1>little more debate around this, but the scientists seemed to

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<v Speaker 1>agree that it also mitigates the spread of the virus.

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<v Speaker 1>That if you have it, you have less of a

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<v Speaker 1>viral load and so your propensity to transmit is a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit less. So we have not seen a big

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<v Speaker 1>impact from it. Obviously, it will impact access to destinations,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, places where people aren't vaccinated yet are are

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<v Speaker 1>just not enough of the population is so it can

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<v Speaker 1>slow down progress that way, and then we're gonna pay

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<v Speaker 1>close attention. But as we always do, will follow you know,

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<v Speaker 1>the authorities around the world. We have to be in

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<v Speaker 1>compliance everywhere, and we'll follow the good Council from the

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<v Speaker 1>leading medical um UH, scientists and and and personnel that

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<v Speaker 1>we work with constantly. Hey, Arnold, you've seen a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of economic cycles, and I think we're trying to assess

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<v Speaker 1>in our conversations with everybody here at Bloomberg and on

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<v Speaker 1>air Uh, what is the economic outlook? You'll hear from

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<v Speaker 1>one airline ceo says things are gangbusters, Things are going

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<v Speaker 1>you know, really really strong. We hear from the FED chief.

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<v Speaker 1>We're here from FED members uh that you know, the

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<v Speaker 1>FED Chief reminding us once again that listen, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>it's gonna take time to get back to where we

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<v Speaker 1>were pre pandemic, which is why he is still supportive

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<v Speaker 1>of some of the measures that the FED has taken

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<v Speaker 1>during the crisis. How do you see it? Um? Is

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<v Speaker 1>the economy going gangbusters? Getting closer? Is it going to

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<v Speaker 1>be for a little bit and then calm down? How

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<v Speaker 1>would you describe it? You know, I'm not an economist, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>pronoxticator extraordinary or anything, but my experience right now is

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<v Speaker 1>the economy is strong, and that there's a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>pent up demand. People are anxious to travel and to

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<v Speaker 1>enjoy things again. They've been um, you know, for quite

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<v Speaker 1>sometime on lockdown or near lockdown, and so there's a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of excitement and interests. People are having a hard

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<v Speaker 1>time hiring people for a period of time because of

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<v Speaker 1>similar packages and another thing, are you having problems hiring people? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>we recruit from a hundred and forty five countries around

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<v Speaker 1>the world, and so for us, that's really not the

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<v Speaker 1>issue on the short side jobs. As we ramp up,

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<v Speaker 1>I'm sure we'll face some challenges in in some areas. Hey, Arnold,

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<v Speaker 1>given that you recruit from a d forty five countries

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<v Speaker 1>all over the world, how do you ensure that your

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<v Speaker 1>staff actually have access to vaccines given that the vaccine

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<v Speaker 1>rollout across the world has been really uneven. That's a

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<v Speaker 1>great question to him, and we are very grateful to

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<v Speaker 1>so many people around the world who have helped us

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<v Speaker 1>gain access to vaccines for our crew, because the reality is,

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<v Speaker 1>we can as a commercial in any directly access to vaccines.

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<v Speaker 1>So it's the localities like Miami and Galveston and here

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<v Speaker 1>in the US and other places around the world that

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<v Speaker 1>have made the vaccines available, and they do be so

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<v Speaker 1>because they know the economic impact of cruise and so

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<v Speaker 1>we can get our crew vaccinated that way and have

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<v Speaker 1>been around the world. So using the United States to

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<v Speaker 1>vaccinate cruise from around the world. Yes, we're getting vaccines

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<v Speaker 1>around the world. We're also vaccinating it in the UK

0:12:54.640 --> 0:12:58.679
<v Speaker 1>and other ports around the world. And my understanding is

0:12:58.800 --> 0:13:01.839
<v Speaker 1>arnold that you know, or to get a ship out

0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:04.680
<v Speaker 1>of a US port, you have I think at least

0:13:05.240 --> 0:13:08.880
<v Speaker 1>passengers crew vaccinated. Is that is that correct? Is at

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:12.960
<v Speaker 1>the minimum that's on the conditional sale order that the

0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:17.040
<v Speaker 1>Center for Disease Control currently has in place, So you

0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:21.400
<v Speaker 1>can sail that way, um without a lot of restrictions.

0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.760
<v Speaker 1>You know, the guests don't have the physically distance, they

0:13:24.960 --> 0:13:27.839
<v Speaker 1>don't have to wear a mask. We we recommend they

0:13:27.880 --> 0:13:30.080
<v Speaker 1>wear a mask anyway, but but they don't have to.

0:13:30.760 --> 0:13:33.640
<v Speaker 1>And so if you want to sail onto those conditions

0:13:33.640 --> 0:13:37.240
<v Speaker 1>which are the ideal conditions? And I know you guys,

0:13:37.400 --> 0:13:39.400
<v Speaker 1>and I know we're talking with your team and with

0:13:39.440 --> 0:13:40.959
<v Speaker 1>you that you guys have been back and forth with

0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.000
<v Speaker 1>the CDC and really you know, trying to get up

0:13:43.040 --> 0:13:46.040
<v Speaker 1>to date and keep up to date um with the

0:13:46.040 --> 0:13:48.880
<v Speaker 1>conditional sale orders and the changing conditions. You know, what

0:13:49.120 --> 0:13:51.600
<v Speaker 1>is the CDC telling you that this are you at

0:13:51.640 --> 0:13:53.640
<v Speaker 1>all concerned that they're going to kind of pump the

0:13:53.679 --> 0:13:56.079
<v Speaker 1>brakes when it comes to the restart here in the

0:13:56.160 --> 0:14:00.920
<v Speaker 1>United States. We have a few remaining challenges UM to

0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:04.160
<v Speaker 1>to get through. For example, if you wanted to sail

0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:09.720
<v Speaker 1>with less than of the guests vaccinated. UH, some of

0:14:09.760 --> 0:14:15.120
<v Speaker 1>the protocols that are currently mandated make it almost impossible

0:14:15.760 --> 0:14:19.040
<v Speaker 1>to sail in a manner that works for the guests,

0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:21.800
<v Speaker 1>and so we continue to work with them to modify

0:14:21.920 --> 0:14:26.400
<v Speaker 1>those for those situations where that would ultimately make sense. UM.

0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:31.440
<v Speaker 1>But we're optimistic that the CDC, along with UM, the

0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:37.640
<v Speaker 1>Biden administration, and the various cabinet members and their staff

0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:42.000
<v Speaker 1>that have responsibility for servicing the public health and and

0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:46.680
<v Speaker 1>making sure the economy is strong UH, that that collectively, UM,

0:14:46.760 --> 0:14:49.600
<v Speaker 1>they'll weigh in and make the right decisions, and and

0:14:49.640 --> 0:14:53.160
<v Speaker 1>we've made some meaningful progress. Our objective would be that

0:14:53.320 --> 0:14:56.200
<v Speaker 1>we would be treated the same as other sectors in

0:14:56.280 --> 0:14:58.880
<v Speaker 1>travel and leisure. What's the message that you have for

0:14:58.960 --> 0:15:01.640
<v Speaker 1>somebody watching or listening right now who still may be

0:15:01.720 --> 0:15:04.160
<v Speaker 1>uneasy about getting back on a ship in this environment.

0:15:05.640 --> 0:15:08.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm sorry to faded out. Could you repeat, just was

0:15:08.720 --> 0:15:10.680
<v Speaker 1>wondering the message that you would have for somebody who's

0:15:10.720 --> 0:15:13.720
<v Speaker 1>listening right now, we're watching right now, if they're potentially

0:15:13.760 --> 0:15:16.240
<v Speaker 1>uneasy about getting back on a ship in this environment.

0:15:16.240 --> 0:15:18.440
<v Speaker 1>I'm thinking about our own Charlie Pellett, who has gone

0:15:18.480 --> 0:15:21.200
<v Speaker 1>on a lot of carnival cruises, loves to go cruising

0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.440
<v Speaker 1>and can't wait to get back out there. What's the

0:15:23.520 --> 0:15:26.240
<v Speaker 1>message that you would, you know, give to somebody who's

0:15:26.280 --> 0:15:28.480
<v Speaker 1>looking at the industry, maybe a little hesitant and wanting

0:15:28.520 --> 0:15:30.080
<v Speaker 1>to get on a ship. What would be the message

0:15:30.080 --> 0:15:32.560
<v Speaker 1>you would say to them? Oh, the message is simple,

0:15:33.320 --> 0:15:38.360
<v Speaker 1>come aboard, you know, get vaccinated please. But if you're vaccinated,

0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:42.720
<v Speaker 1>come aboard and um and enjoy yourself. You're gonna have

0:15:43.160 --> 0:15:46.160
<v Speaker 1>a safe cruise and you're gonna have a great time. Hey,

0:15:46.200 --> 0:15:49.120
<v Speaker 1>you know those recurring cruisers, I know, like a Charlie

0:15:49.160 --> 0:15:52.040
<v Speaker 1>Pellett who works here at Bloomberg, they give you, guys

0:15:52.120 --> 0:15:55.280
<v Speaker 1>a great um window into future cruises. Talk to us

0:15:55.280 --> 0:15:56.960
<v Speaker 1>a little bit about that, because I know there's millions

0:15:57.000 --> 0:16:00.400
<v Speaker 1>of them out there right that take a cruise come back.

0:16:00.440 --> 0:16:02.320
<v Speaker 1>I remember being on your ship and sitting in there,

0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:04.360
<v Speaker 1>you know, in an elevator and people saying it was

0:16:04.400 --> 0:16:07.920
<v Speaker 1>my fifth cruise, my six cruise. But it gives you, right,

0:16:08.160 --> 0:16:11.320
<v Speaker 1>some visibility in terms of where you're going. What are

0:16:11.360 --> 0:16:14.040
<v Speaker 1>you seeing on that front? Oh, in terms of the

0:16:14.160 --> 0:16:16.560
<v Speaker 1>future you mean for the industry, yeah, or and for

0:16:16.600 --> 0:16:20.160
<v Speaker 1>you specifically, Yeah. Yeah. The future for us and for

0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:25.160
<v Speaker 1>the industry is super bright. Keep in mind, prior to COVID,

0:16:25.840 --> 0:16:29.280
<v Speaker 1>about a half a billion people a year took holidays

0:16:29.360 --> 0:16:32.880
<v Speaker 1>or vacations around the world. We were sailing as an industry,

0:16:33.280 --> 0:16:35.640
<v Speaker 1>thirty million people a year. We sailed a little with

0:16:35.720 --> 0:16:39.480
<v Speaker 1>thirteen you know, across our nine world leading cruise line brands,

0:16:40.000 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 1>and um, when you think about it that way, you

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:46.880
<v Speaker 1>realize what the opportunity is, where the best vacation value

0:16:46.960 --> 0:16:50.000
<v Speaker 1>there is, with the best vacation experience there is, And

0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:53.560
<v Speaker 1>so we have nothing but upside. We were on a

0:16:53.600 --> 0:16:56.760
<v Speaker 1>great role as an industry prior to COVID. We were growing.

0:16:57.280 --> 0:17:00.760
<v Speaker 1>Things were great, great returns for the shareholders, great experiences

0:17:00.800 --> 0:17:03.560
<v Speaker 1>for the guests. And we'll be back to that. You know,

0:17:03.640 --> 0:17:06.320
<v Speaker 1>we'll we'll have to stagger the ships in but by

0:17:06.640 --> 0:17:09.879
<v Speaker 1>spring next year or later, assuming the trajectory for the

0:17:09.880 --> 0:17:14.680
<v Speaker 1>pandemic continues the way it's going, we'll we'll be back

0:17:14.680 --> 0:17:18.040
<v Speaker 1>to where we were, um, exciting people and then tie

0:17:18.040 --> 0:17:20.919
<v Speaker 1>you seem more and more people to the great experience

0:17:20.920 --> 0:17:25.240
<v Speaker 1>that accruises. So I have to say our audience, financial audience,

0:17:25.280 --> 0:17:27.600
<v Speaker 1>and folks on the terminal sending me message and they're

0:17:27.640 --> 0:17:30.320
<v Speaker 1>like okay, So ask Arnold. You know we're hearing it.

0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:33.920
<v Speaker 1>He's very optimistic. It's positive to see another U S

0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:35.720
<v Speaker 1>ship or another ship out of a U S port.

0:17:36.080 --> 0:17:38.920
<v Speaker 1>You did though guide for positive even up by the

0:17:38.960 --> 0:17:42.159
<v Speaker 1>summer of two, provided the full fleet is up and

0:17:42.200 --> 0:17:46.240
<v Speaker 1>running right and we're back to those more normal occupancy levels. Um,

0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:48.119
<v Speaker 1>do those and I know earnings are coming up, so

0:17:48.200 --> 0:17:50.680
<v Speaker 1>you tell me what you can tell me. Do those assumptions.

0:17:50.680 --> 0:17:55.120
<v Speaker 1>Though Arnold still hold, I would say that clearly where

0:17:55.119 --> 0:17:59.440
<v Speaker 1>we're at now it's maximizing cast generation. We have fourteen

0:17:59.560 --> 0:18:03.680
<v Speaker 1>trans actions UM during the during the pause, and now

0:18:03.680 --> 0:18:07.439
<v Speaker 1>a fifteenth as we refinanced one of those, and to

0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:10.520
<v Speaker 1>raise twenty three point six billion dollars, a lot of

0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:15.720
<v Speaker 1>it in debt, either senior or secondary. But the bottom

0:18:15.760 --> 0:18:19.360
<v Speaker 1>line is, UM, we want to accelerate repaying that debt.

0:18:19.560 --> 0:18:22.040
<v Speaker 1>We want to return to the credit ratings that we had,

0:18:22.160 --> 0:18:25.600
<v Speaker 1>the strong credit ratings that we had pre COVID, and

0:18:25.640 --> 0:18:29.200
<v Speaker 1>in doing so will create great value for the shareholders.

0:18:29.240 --> 0:18:31.399
<v Speaker 1>And the way for us to do that is to

0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:34.840
<v Speaker 1>be sailing again generating cash. We have a more efficient fleet.

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:39.080
<v Speaker 1>We eliminated nineteen of our least efficient vessels. We have

0:18:39.160 --> 0:18:42.320
<v Speaker 1>new vessels coming in that are far more efficient, a

0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:46.600
<v Speaker 1>strong environment with robust demand, and uh, it's just gonna

0:18:46.800 --> 0:18:50.359
<v Speaker 1>it looks very positive going forward, so positive enough that

0:18:50.520 --> 0:18:52.639
<v Speaker 1>if you can get back to triple B territory on

0:18:52.680 --> 0:18:56.760
<v Speaker 1>your debt anytime soon, I think anytime soon. It's gonna

0:18:56.800 --> 0:18:59.560
<v Speaker 1>take us a few years to get back to the

0:18:59.680 --> 0:19:04.159
<v Speaker 1>very high credit ready that that we had before. Um,

0:19:04.200 --> 0:19:07.199
<v Speaker 1>but but we're gonna we should be able to do that,

0:19:07.280 --> 0:19:10.680
<v Speaker 1>assuming you know that the trajectory stays with the pandemic

0:19:10.760 --> 0:19:13.760
<v Speaker 1>and and things continue the role. I'm interested to hear

0:19:13.800 --> 0:19:16.520
<v Speaker 1>about how you get that next generation of cruisers to

0:19:16.520 --> 0:19:20.520
<v Speaker 1>be Never I've never been on a cruise. For example,

0:19:20.600 --> 0:19:23.520
<v Speaker 1>I would be somebody who you would want to reach, right,

0:19:23.560 --> 0:19:25.840
<v Speaker 1>I have a young family. How do you get us

0:19:26.160 --> 0:19:29.440
<v Speaker 1>to become that next generation of cruisers? Well, first of all,

0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:33.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, we sell a lot of millennials now, so

0:19:33.359 --> 0:19:38.080
<v Speaker 1>the cruises by definition multigeneration, and so so many people

0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:41.920
<v Speaker 1>have all ages have cruise. We sell more children, for example,

0:19:42.320 --> 0:19:45.680
<v Speaker 1>on our Carnival brand than any other line in the orld,

0:19:46.200 --> 0:19:50.800
<v Speaker 1>and so we we have multigenerational experience already. The second

0:19:50.840 --> 0:19:55.520
<v Speaker 1>thing is that especially for millennials, Uh, they love experiences.

0:19:55.600 --> 0:20:00.000
<v Speaker 1>Everybody does, but but they are even more predispision predisposition

0:20:00.240 --> 0:20:03.960
<v Speaker 1>for that than others. And so that's what cruises and

0:20:04.040 --> 0:20:08.000
<v Speaker 1>all of our data shows that crews really resonates with

0:20:08.080 --> 0:20:10.840
<v Speaker 1>that generation. So for you, tim, we just gotta have

0:20:10.960 --> 0:20:14.480
<v Speaker 1>you experienced it once and you'll be hooked. Like the

0:20:15.080 --> 0:20:17.760
<v Speaker 1>young man who told me on this ship the other

0:20:17.880 --> 0:20:22.240
<v Speaker 1>day that he had two thousand days of cruising with

0:20:22.280 --> 0:20:26.440
<v Speaker 1>the Corner brand. Talk about recurring, I've been pushing him

0:20:26.440 --> 0:20:28.640
<v Speaker 1>out to the water. I'm just gonna tell you, Arnold. Hey,

0:20:28.720 --> 0:20:31.080
<v Speaker 1>last question, um, the events of the past year, how

0:20:31.160 --> 0:20:34.919
<v Speaker 1>is it reshaped your long term approach to the company

0:20:34.920 --> 0:20:38.640
<v Speaker 1>in the industry? I'm sorry, could you repeat, I'm getting

0:20:38.640 --> 0:20:42.200
<v Speaker 1>a little feedback. My our apologies are, how have the

0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.320
<v Speaker 1>events of the past year kind of reshaped your long

0:20:44.400 --> 0:20:47.840
<v Speaker 1>term approach to the company and specifically the cruise industry

0:20:48.000 --> 0:20:50.760
<v Speaker 1>and just kind I think our long term approaches the same.

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:56.320
<v Speaker 1>First of all, our highest responsibility and therefore our top

0:20:56.359 --> 0:21:01.960
<v Speaker 1>priority always always it's compliance, environ mental protection and the health,

0:21:02.000 --> 0:21:05.680
<v Speaker 1>safety and well being of our guests, of the people

0:21:05.680 --> 0:21:08.600
<v Speaker 1>in the communities we touch and serve, and then of

0:21:08.680 --> 0:21:13.120
<v Speaker 1>our shipboard and short side personnel. So that is our

0:21:13.200 --> 0:21:16.280
<v Speaker 1>foundation that gives us the freedom to operate, and that

0:21:16.480 --> 0:21:19.080
<v Speaker 1>is at our core what we have to do exceedingly

0:21:19.119 --> 0:21:22.920
<v Speaker 1>well to put us in position to see guests expectations

0:21:23.359 --> 0:21:26.680
<v Speaker 1>and generate great returns for shareholders. Arnold, thank you so much.

0:21:26.800 --> 0:21:31.600
<v Speaker 1>Arnold Donald, chief executive officer at Carnival Corporation, joining us

0:21:31.640 --> 0:21:35.800
<v Speaker 1>from their headquarters in Miami. This is Bloomberg Business Week

0:21:36.000 --> 0:21:39.919
<v Speaker 1>with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on

0:21:40.080 --> 0:21:43.960
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio. It's about China's favorite fiery liquor. It is

0:21:43.960 --> 0:21:46.560
<v Speaker 1>getting a millennial makeover. And I gotta just tell you

0:21:46.600 --> 0:21:48.760
<v Speaker 1>the backstories that we've been having around our table here

0:21:48.760 --> 0:21:51.440
<v Speaker 1>in the studio. Yeah, we should have been broadcasting during

0:21:51.480 --> 0:21:53.680
<v Speaker 1>the break. I'm kind of glad that it for examples.

0:21:54.320 --> 0:21:56.800
<v Speaker 1>So joining us now is Joel Weber, Editor at Bloomberg

0:21:56.840 --> 0:21:59.760
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. He's in the Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio as

0:21:59.760 --> 0:22:04.040
<v Speaker 1>is mlis Assistant Managing editor at Bloomberg A Business Week Joel,

0:22:04.960 --> 0:22:09.000
<v Speaker 1>what you have had this liquor? Buys you? Buys you? Yeah,

0:22:09.320 --> 0:22:11.160
<v Speaker 1>how is it? What does it taste like? Um? Well,

0:22:11.200 --> 0:22:12.960
<v Speaker 1>I can rewind the clock a little bit. And I

0:22:13.800 --> 0:22:17.480
<v Speaker 1>was in Beijing for the New Economy Forum a couple

0:22:17.520 --> 0:22:21.480
<v Speaker 1>of years ago in the Before Times and the we

0:22:21.560 --> 0:22:24.520
<v Speaker 1>have a great colleague there, John lou who. Um. You know.

0:22:24.560 --> 0:22:26.679
<v Speaker 1>One interesting thing about going to China is that you know,

0:22:26.960 --> 0:22:30.520
<v Speaker 1>it's actually kind of difficult to interact and do comrace

0:22:30.600 --> 0:22:33.399
<v Speaker 1>because you know, I'm I'm a gringo. My cash doesn't

0:22:33.400 --> 0:22:35.720
<v Speaker 1>work there. I don't have the apps that they use,

0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:39.560
<v Speaker 1>so you're sort of locked out. The great joy of

0:22:39.600 --> 0:22:41.439
<v Speaker 1>that is that your colleagues basically have to take you

0:22:41.440 --> 0:22:44.680
<v Speaker 1>everywhere and feed you. Um. So we had this great

0:22:44.680 --> 0:22:48.000
<v Speaker 1>dinner um and John was like, you got a little

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:49.520
<v Speaker 1>bit more wind than you and I was like, yeah,

0:22:49.520 --> 0:22:50.880
<v Speaker 1>I got a little bit. And he was like, I'm

0:22:50.880 --> 0:22:52.720
<v Speaker 1>gonna get something for you and he and he gave

0:22:52.800 --> 0:22:55.879
<v Speaker 1>us some buys you and I really don't remember what

0:22:55.960 --> 0:22:58.960
<v Speaker 1>happened from then on. Out. We're just talking a little bit.

0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:03.320
<v Speaker 1>It is it is memorable. It is uh spicy, hot, fiery,

0:23:04.240 --> 0:23:06.120
<v Speaker 1>uh and it is stuck with me and I never

0:23:06.160 --> 0:23:08.200
<v Speaker 1>want to have it again. And that was what caught

0:23:08.240 --> 0:23:13.639
<v Speaker 1>my attention on this story, is laughing because buys you

0:23:14.280 --> 0:23:17.600
<v Speaker 1>is uh. It is a national liquor, right, and it

0:23:17.720 --> 0:23:20.960
<v Speaker 1>is interesting around the world. I mean, I guess in

0:23:21.000 --> 0:23:24.720
<v Speaker 1>America we have Budweiser, but other people have like real things,

0:23:24.760 --> 0:23:29.119
<v Speaker 1>like you know, Hungary you have Unicom, in Greece you

0:23:29.200 --> 0:23:33.360
<v Speaker 1>have Uzu. Like in in China you have buys. I mean,

0:23:33.400 --> 0:23:35.880
<v Speaker 1>it's one of those things that you know, it's always

0:23:35.880 --> 0:23:39.520
<v Speaker 1>been used for celebrations and make a lot of Americans.

0:23:39.520 --> 0:23:42.359
<v Speaker 1>The first exposure they had to it was when, um,

0:23:42.400 --> 0:23:45.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, when Nixon and Jow and Lye toasted each

0:23:45.160 --> 0:23:47.639
<v Speaker 1>other with Buyju when they opened up China to the West,

0:23:48.000 --> 0:23:50.080
<v Speaker 1>and um, you sort of think, well, what is that. Well,

0:23:50.080 --> 0:23:53.640
<v Speaker 1>it's the most popular liquor in China. It is a

0:23:53.720 --> 0:23:56.800
<v Speaker 1>huge business. It's much bigger than beer. It's a hundred

0:23:56.800 --> 0:24:01.600
<v Speaker 1>and forty seven billion dollar a year business. It is massive.

0:24:01.880 --> 0:24:05.000
<v Speaker 1>It is something that everyone likes there and has used

0:24:05.000 --> 0:24:08.800
<v Speaker 1>for celebrations for centuries. The problem is that it's very strong.

0:24:08.880 --> 0:24:11.680
<v Speaker 1>It's a hundred and ten proof, and for a lot

0:24:11.720 --> 0:24:15.720
<v Speaker 1>of younger drinkers, they think it's way too strong. Younger

0:24:15.760 --> 0:24:18.560
<v Speaker 1>drinkers in China are becoming much more like consumers elsewhere.

0:24:18.680 --> 0:24:21.760
<v Speaker 1>They like things like um, you know, they're experimenting with wine,

0:24:21.760 --> 0:24:24.680
<v Speaker 1>to experimenting with cocktails, and the notion of sitting down

0:24:24.720 --> 0:24:28.600
<v Speaker 1>and basically drinking firewater, you know, which is popular with

0:24:28.640 --> 0:24:32.040
<v Speaker 1>businessmen who are older, is something that is not working

0:24:32.040 --> 0:24:34.760
<v Speaker 1>out for them. Millennial, what do you think? No? Thanks?

0:24:34.920 --> 0:24:36.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean I'm the one who's like talking about non

0:24:36.600 --> 0:24:39.560
<v Speaker 1>alcoholic beer. I'm like scared. Even my stomach is is

0:24:40.040 --> 0:24:42.720
<v Speaker 1>fiery thinking about this. So so how are they what

0:24:42.720 --> 0:24:44.639
<v Speaker 1>are they trying to do to actually attract millennials. So

0:24:44.680 --> 0:24:48.479
<v Speaker 1>there's when company in particular that our story focuses on,

0:24:48.600 --> 0:24:50.399
<v Speaker 1>which I'm gonna attempt to say it, Jim, I think

0:24:50.400 --> 0:24:53.040
<v Speaker 1>you can say it better than me. Jing Jaobai, right,

0:24:53.119 --> 0:24:58.880
<v Speaker 1>it's too miss chun king jing jaobai, which is um uh.

0:24:58.880 --> 0:25:02.000
<v Speaker 1>It's they're basically trying tind to make buys you something

0:25:02.040 --> 0:25:05.159
<v Speaker 1>that younger drinkers would like, and what that means is

0:25:05.520 --> 0:25:08.880
<v Speaker 1>sort of using marketing that aims at the young uh

0:25:09.040 --> 0:25:12.240
<v Speaker 1>putting um you know, going online looking for ways to

0:25:12.400 --> 0:25:14.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, you can suggest you know, saying that they'll

0:25:14.800 --> 0:25:17.840
<v Speaker 1>print on the bottles. They also sell it on team all,

0:25:18.000 --> 0:25:20.560
<v Speaker 1>which is the massive you know, sort of e commerce

0:25:20.600 --> 0:25:23.199
<v Speaker 1>site there. They push it to um you know, in

0:25:23.359 --> 0:25:26.639
<v Speaker 1>things like anime. They've done ways to appeal to a

0:25:26.760 --> 0:25:31.160
<v Speaker 1>younger person who typically wouldn't want this. They've also um,

0:25:31.200 --> 0:25:33.800
<v Speaker 1>you know, trying to find ways to use it as

0:25:34.240 --> 0:25:36.760
<v Speaker 1>as in flavors. I mean, you don't normally think of

0:25:36.760 --> 0:25:39.080
<v Speaker 1>this kind of thing mixing as a cocktail, but for

0:25:39.240 --> 0:25:42.760
<v Speaker 1>younger drinkers and particularly female drinkers, they want something that

0:25:42.800 --> 0:25:44.600
<v Speaker 1>has a little bit more of a fruity taste and

0:25:44.640 --> 0:25:47.280
<v Speaker 1>something that doesn't really knock you out. Is it working.

0:25:47.760 --> 0:25:50.440
<v Speaker 1>It is working. I mean this is actually growing very fast,

0:25:50.520 --> 0:25:54.160
<v Speaker 1>and because of that, it's attracted other people who wanted

0:25:54.119 --> 0:25:57.280
<v Speaker 1>to get into the sort of lighter, um you know,

0:25:57.320 --> 0:26:00.840
<v Speaker 1>sort of lighter liquor business. There are um you know,

0:26:00.880 --> 0:26:03.840
<v Speaker 1>it's not just buy jus that have flavors. They're also

0:26:04.359 --> 0:26:07.840
<v Speaker 1>plumb wines are becoming a big growth business over there.

0:26:07.960 --> 0:26:11.080
<v Speaker 1>That's not a big business outside of certain markets in Asia,

0:26:11.359 --> 0:26:15.440
<v Speaker 1>but it's really working over there. This is the future

0:26:16.080 --> 0:26:19.639
<v Speaker 1>and um, you know, liquor, especially in a market that large,

0:26:19.880 --> 0:26:22.520
<v Speaker 1>even having just a sliver of this business, you know,

0:26:22.760 --> 0:26:25.120
<v Speaker 1>means that you're going to you know, basically have a

0:26:25.160 --> 0:26:28.520
<v Speaker 1>really really big business. And part of the strategy here,

0:26:28.760 --> 0:26:32.960
<v Speaker 1>as uh the CEO told us, was they want to

0:26:32.960 --> 0:26:35.560
<v Speaker 1>be a little bit like the unique clow of you.

0:26:35.920 --> 0:26:38.640
<v Speaker 1>So you know, you walk into a unique clue shop

0:26:39.000 --> 0:26:42.320
<v Speaker 1>again in the before times, and and it's it's like

0:26:42.400 --> 0:26:45.760
<v Speaker 1>walking into a Skittles bag. Right, It's just like colors everywhere,

0:26:45.840 --> 0:26:48.760
<v Speaker 1>tons of things for everyone, and yet it's all affordable.

0:26:48.960 --> 0:26:53.159
<v Speaker 1>It's all very utilitarian. Right. So if you, you know,

0:26:53.240 --> 0:26:56.960
<v Speaker 1>Jim curious, like what's what's the rest of this? What

0:26:57.040 --> 0:26:59.200
<v Speaker 1>are they fighting against? Right? Like, what what are the

0:26:59.320 --> 0:27:01.119
<v Speaker 1>what are they up again? Well, they're up against the

0:27:01.400 --> 0:27:04.120
<v Speaker 1>you know. First of all, the younger consumers are much

0:27:04.119 --> 0:27:09.280
<v Speaker 1>more experimental and they are looking for other types of tipples.

0:27:09.320 --> 0:27:12.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, one thing is that, uh, you know, wine

0:27:12.520 --> 0:27:15.240
<v Speaker 1>is something that's not really a long term thing in

0:27:15.320 --> 0:27:18.439
<v Speaker 1>Chinese culture, but they really are growing and that's pushing

0:27:18.480 --> 0:27:21.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the sort of Western winemakers just say

0:27:21.320 --> 0:27:24.359
<v Speaker 1>they want to come in like lvm age to come

0:27:24.400 --> 0:27:28.159
<v Speaker 1>in and do developed wines just for China. That's a

0:27:28.200 --> 0:27:30.560
<v Speaker 1>new group that wants to you know, sort of get there.

0:27:30.760 --> 0:27:34.040
<v Speaker 1>They also are up against um, you know, sort from

0:27:34.040 --> 0:27:38.360
<v Speaker 1>a marketing standpoint. You drink by Jo because often it's

0:27:38.359 --> 0:27:41.800
<v Speaker 1>because of a business connection, this business meeting, you know,

0:27:41.840 --> 0:27:45.000
<v Speaker 1>like Joe's dinner. Um, But how do you do that

0:27:45.040 --> 0:27:48.320
<v Speaker 1>because if well, I mean the business meeting is over.

0:27:48.720 --> 0:27:52.000
<v Speaker 1>They tend to split bottles and that's a different, different

0:27:52.000 --> 0:27:55.919
<v Speaker 1>approach here. There'll be a large, extremely expensive bottle. Bottles

0:27:55.920 --> 0:28:00.240
<v Speaker 1>can be. Bottles can be you know, a bottle might

0:28:00.280 --> 0:28:03.000
<v Speaker 1>be for a sort of flying berry, might be three

0:28:03.480 --> 0:28:06.880
<v Speaker 1>eighty dollars for a lot of money, but as well,

0:28:06.920 --> 0:28:09.600
<v Speaker 1>but no, a fancy buys you could go take you

0:28:09.680 --> 0:28:15.560
<v Speaker 1>up to almost four thousand dollars, no comment. I can't.

0:28:15.320 --> 0:28:19.040
<v Speaker 1>I literally could not interact with I was locked out.

0:28:19.280 --> 0:28:23.400
<v Speaker 1>But has taken a different approach, which is to come

0:28:23.400 --> 0:28:27.080
<v Speaker 1>with a much less expensive version that and also small

0:28:27.160 --> 0:28:29.800
<v Speaker 1>bottles that you can use with just you and a friend.

0:28:30.000 --> 0:28:33.160
<v Speaker 1>I have a vague reminiscent of it being a small bottle.

0:28:33.160 --> 0:28:36.600
<v Speaker 1>It was not a big bottle, So I you know.

0:28:36.680 --> 0:28:39.600
<v Speaker 1>The other thing Jimmy here is like, is there is

0:28:39.640 --> 0:28:42.480
<v Speaker 1>there an ability for a product like this to really

0:28:42.480 --> 0:28:44.719
<v Speaker 1>ever find its way out of China at this day

0:28:44.720 --> 0:28:47.440
<v Speaker 1>and age, or is this just really you're just appealing to,

0:28:48.040 --> 0:28:52.400
<v Speaker 1>you know, the billions of Chinese. Well, most likely this

0:28:52.480 --> 0:28:55.240
<v Speaker 1>is something that won't make it here because here in

0:28:55.240 --> 0:29:00.160
<v Speaker 1>the US most things are going lighter, not heavier. What

0:29:00.360 --> 0:29:02.440
<v Speaker 1>I think is just sort of interesting that this is

0:29:02.480 --> 0:29:04.440
<v Speaker 1>like even something like this that you can just leave.

0:29:05.080 --> 0:29:07.080
<v Speaker 1>You would think that there's no future in this right

0:29:07.120 --> 0:29:09.440
<v Speaker 1>and it can cause like upboards of a thousand dollars,

0:29:09.440 --> 0:29:11.560
<v Speaker 1>and yet you wrap a little bit of a story

0:29:11.640 --> 0:29:14.880
<v Speaker 1>around it, you put some marketing dollars behind it, reimagine

0:29:14.920 --> 0:29:16.760
<v Speaker 1>it and like maybe you got a shot. We're already

0:29:16.760 --> 0:29:19.600
<v Speaker 1>getting some sent here for you. Joel, Well, we know

0:29:19.640 --> 0:29:21.320
<v Speaker 1>how that ends. Next time we go to the bar,

0:29:21.400 --> 0:29:23.920
<v Speaker 1>we'll check it out. Joe Weber and Jim Ellis Bloomberg

0:29:23.960 --> 0:29:31.840
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser

0:29:32.080 --> 0:29:36.760
<v Speaker 1>and Bloomberg Quick Takes. Tim Stinovik on Bloomberg Radio. Sorry

0:29:36.800 --> 0:29:40.480
<v Speaker 1>about flurry, a virus and vaccine headlines. Health officials in

0:29:40.520 --> 0:29:44.040
<v Speaker 1>southwestern Missouri or Missouri asked the state to set up

0:29:44.040 --> 0:29:47.480
<v Speaker 1>an emergency hospital to handle a surgeon delta variant cases, Tim,

0:29:47.560 --> 0:29:51.200
<v Speaker 1>that threatened to really overwhelm health services there. Yeah, and

0:29:51.240 --> 0:29:53.400
<v Speaker 1>we're also keeping eye of course on the delta variant

0:29:53.440 --> 0:29:55.760
<v Speaker 1>and listening to what executives have to say during their

0:29:55.760 --> 0:29:58.120
<v Speaker 1>earnings calls about how they're monitoring it not just for

0:29:58.160 --> 0:30:00.120
<v Speaker 1>their business, but as they also at the same try

0:30:00.160 --> 0:30:02.320
<v Speaker 1>and try to get employees back to the office. Africa,

0:30:02.400 --> 0:30:04.320
<v Speaker 1>by the way, has seen a million new cases over

0:30:04.320 --> 0:30:06.600
<v Speaker 1>the past month. Hospitals are at a breaking point with

0:30:06.680 --> 0:30:08.600
<v Speaker 1>the continent in the grip of its most severe wave

0:30:08.640 --> 0:30:12.160
<v Speaker 1>of infections. Uh, there so lots to get to. Let's

0:30:12.160 --> 0:30:15.200
<v Speaker 1>bring in Talbert Nishua. He is senior Research Associate at

0:30:15.280 --> 0:30:18.560
<v Speaker 1>Johns Hopkins University Bloomberg School of Public Health. Former Deputy

0:30:18.560 --> 0:30:21.080
<v Speaker 1>Minister of Health for the Republic of Liberia. He joins

0:30:21.120 --> 0:30:23.080
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Delaware at the Bloomberg School

0:30:23.080 --> 0:30:26.040
<v Speaker 1>of Public Health, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder of

0:30:26.080 --> 0:30:29.320
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Talbert, nice to have you

0:30:29.360 --> 0:30:32.880
<v Speaker 1>here with Tim and myself. Every day, you know, Tim

0:30:32.880 --> 0:30:34.840
<v Speaker 1>and I have to go through and look through the

0:30:34.840 --> 0:30:37.280
<v Speaker 1>headlines to try and really put out there to our

0:30:37.320 --> 0:30:39.800
<v Speaker 1>audience what really matters, what they need to know about.

0:30:39.800 --> 0:30:41.840
<v Speaker 1>What do you think first and format most, we have

0:30:41.880 --> 0:30:44.360
<v Speaker 1>to kind of understand about where we are when it

0:30:44.400 --> 0:30:50.480
<v Speaker 1>comes to the health pandemic. God damn, thank you for

0:30:50.520 --> 0:30:54.360
<v Speaker 1>having me. Thank you for having me. It's a polity

0:30:54.360 --> 0:30:59.680
<v Speaker 1>to beat on. We in a situation where rick communication

0:31:00.360 --> 0:31:06.120
<v Speaker 1>and community engagement UH cannot be over emphasized. The fact

0:31:06.200 --> 0:31:10.920
<v Speaker 1>of the matter is people are the vaccine uptake, the

0:31:11.080 --> 0:31:17.440
<v Speaker 1>sub octoman and we see a strong correlation between unvascilated

0:31:18.200 --> 0:31:25.240
<v Speaker 1>and COVID ninety cases, hotspot hospitalization, the VA disease, and unfottendulatives.

0:31:25.680 --> 0:31:29.120
<v Speaker 1>And these are presentable once you take your shots, so

0:31:29.320 --> 0:31:32.680
<v Speaker 1>people need to make use of the vaccines. In fact,

0:31:33.200 --> 0:31:37.160
<v Speaker 1>gave you speccific examples of COVID nineteen hospots right now.

0:31:37.280 --> 0:31:43.640
<v Speaker 1>You see stre the missouries of Carolina, Oklahoma, Utah, Nevada, Partkingtons,

0:31:44.200 --> 0:31:50.000
<v Speaker 1>the States. The vascination rate is stay below for how

0:31:50.040 --> 0:31:52.680
<v Speaker 1>do you how do you get it above? How if

0:31:52.720 --> 0:31:55.240
<v Speaker 1>people are going to get a vaccine now, who have

0:31:55.360 --> 0:32:00.000
<v Speaker 1>access to vaccines for free, who have access to vaccine

0:32:00.000 --> 0:32:03.280
<v Speaker 1>things that are really convenient. Are they ever going to

0:32:03.280 --> 0:32:06.520
<v Speaker 1>get a vaccine? Is it time to just move on

0:32:06.760 --> 0:32:08.840
<v Speaker 1>and and and and send these vaccines out of the

0:32:08.920 --> 0:32:12.920
<v Speaker 1>United States to two countries that need them more. It

0:32:13.040 --> 0:32:16.200
<v Speaker 1>is important to solve the inequitate gap that we have

0:32:16.360 --> 0:32:20.040
<v Speaker 1>in other countries like in the Global South, in Africa

0:32:20.120 --> 0:32:22.640
<v Speaker 1>and other areas around the world, and what's happening in

0:32:22.640 --> 0:32:26.560
<v Speaker 1>the Asia. But it's also good for the United States

0:32:26.640 --> 0:32:30.720
<v Speaker 1>that have affects and availability to make use of the vaccines.

0:32:31.000 --> 0:32:36.840
<v Speaker 1>That's the most important part politicizing public health, especially the

0:32:36.920 --> 0:32:41.240
<v Speaker 1>current open like the evaccination program. Place people in Hampswere

0:32:41.840 --> 0:32:45.160
<v Speaker 1>with the data there and we see that not the

0:32:45.240 --> 0:32:47.920
<v Speaker 1>nine percent of the infection and just are in people

0:32:48.000 --> 0:32:52.040
<v Speaker 1>on vaccinated. So people should not move on. We need

0:32:52.080 --> 0:32:56.920
<v Speaker 1>to get to zero cases of this ward or create

0:32:56.960 --> 0:32:59.800
<v Speaker 1>the hair is unity step the percent of the population

0:33:00.600 --> 0:33:05.280
<v Speaker 1>get vaccinated and make sure that we do. This is

0:33:05.600 --> 0:33:11.400
<v Speaker 1>a patriotic duty every second the vaccines. Hey, Tolbert, let

0:33:11.400 --> 0:33:13.080
<v Speaker 1>me ask you something because we just had on the

0:33:13.080 --> 0:33:17.680
<v Speaker 1>Carnival Corporation CEO Arnold Donald, and you know they are

0:33:18.000 --> 0:33:20.560
<v Speaker 1>starting to set sail here in the US out of

0:33:20.640 --> 0:33:23.680
<v Speaker 1>US ports specifically, but it is a slow progress and

0:33:23.680 --> 0:33:26.400
<v Speaker 1>they've been waiting for a long time. And I asked

0:33:26.920 --> 0:33:29.920
<v Speaker 1>Arnold about the Delta variants specifically the impact it has,

0:33:29.960 --> 0:33:32.440
<v Speaker 1>and you know, he didn't talk about that. They've dealt

0:33:32.440 --> 0:33:34.760
<v Speaker 1>with other viruses. They've talked with Zeke, you know, dealt

0:33:34.760 --> 0:33:38.560
<v Speaker 1>with Zeka, They've dealt with you know stars. Is there

0:33:38.680 --> 0:33:42.560
<v Speaker 1>something different though about COVID versus some of those other viruses,

0:33:44.640 --> 0:33:47.560
<v Speaker 1>the auto viruses. You just talk about what at the

0:33:47.680 --> 0:33:51.080
<v Speaker 1>level of the pandemic And what makes this difficult is

0:33:51.160 --> 0:33:56.120
<v Speaker 1>that the entire word with this pandemic and these barrels

0:33:57.120 --> 0:34:01.040
<v Speaker 1>and the fact that we still don't have treatment for this,

0:34:01.680 --> 0:34:06.920
<v Speaker 1>and the vaccines are in low supplied, the stratege the

0:34:06.960 --> 0:34:09.800
<v Speaker 1>supply team is limited for the rest of the world.

0:34:10.400 --> 0:34:13.440
<v Speaker 1>It gave the virus the opportunity to mute it. And

0:34:13.480 --> 0:34:16.640
<v Speaker 1>this is why we've seen the variants. That's for color

0:34:16.800 --> 0:34:20.040
<v Speaker 1>right now, we've seen four kinds of variants and the

0:34:20.320 --> 0:34:27.080
<v Speaker 1>parents sorry, and the data bearing is becoming more transmissible

0:34:27.120 --> 0:34:30.800
<v Speaker 1>as it studies in the UK number area of sheroom

0:34:30.880 --> 0:34:36.080
<v Speaker 1>sixty percent transmission and even more virulent as as as

0:34:36.120 --> 0:34:40.720
<v Speaker 1>compared to the rest of the three of uh Laquer

0:34:40.920 --> 0:34:45.440
<v Speaker 1>and government, parants parents that we've seen. This is this

0:34:45.520 --> 0:34:49.360
<v Speaker 1>is the important fact. Were there with the bola. Bola

0:34:49.400 --> 0:34:52.720
<v Speaker 1>was once I was the infidet manning gurn in West Africa.

0:34:52.800 --> 0:34:55.719
<v Speaker 1>When were there with the bola, it was continue and

0:34:55.760 --> 0:34:59.520
<v Speaker 1>localized in pre West African country. Vicar did not go

0:34:59.719 --> 0:35:04.120
<v Speaker 1>up ask breas right now and so this is a

0:35:04.200 --> 0:35:06.960
<v Speaker 1>different with over nine things. But the good news is

0:35:07.040 --> 0:35:10.400
<v Speaker 1>we now have the vaccine, so people should go and

0:35:10.440 --> 0:35:14.279
<v Speaker 1>take their vaccines. That's very very critical. October, you were

0:35:14.320 --> 0:35:18.120
<v Speaker 1>Deputy Minister of Health for the Republic of Liberia. We

0:35:18.400 --> 0:35:21.360
<v Speaker 1>Carol mentioned the statistics about Africa very concerning. It is

0:35:21.360 --> 0:35:24.040
<v Speaker 1>not a monolith. Each country is different. But I do

0:35:24.160 --> 0:35:26.920
<v Speaker 1>wonder what's a realistic way for us to think about

0:35:26.920 --> 0:35:30.000
<v Speaker 1>the pandemic ending on the continent given the tough access

0:35:30.040 --> 0:35:33.680
<v Speaker 1>to vaccines that many countries have. Does it just does it?

0:35:33.800 --> 0:35:38.719
<v Speaker 1>Does it just continue to go unabated? It is right

0:35:38.760 --> 0:35:42.360
<v Speaker 1>now as we see it, and no country is saved

0:35:42.760 --> 0:35:45.840
<v Speaker 1>one another part of the world is not making the

0:35:45.880 --> 0:35:48.360
<v Speaker 1>same progress that countries in the global now that it

0:35:48.440 --> 0:35:51.640
<v Speaker 1>is not that in Europe I'm making right now. The

0:35:51.760 --> 0:35:57.680
<v Speaker 1>trend in Africa is worsening and the reasons are simple.

0:35:58.080 --> 0:36:03.880
<v Speaker 1>Number one, health giest systems are within those countries. We

0:36:04.160 --> 0:36:08.120
<v Speaker 1>be spart in the number of cases our concern right

0:36:08.160 --> 0:36:13.000
<v Speaker 1>now scientifically, and global health community public health communities does

0:36:13.040 --> 0:36:16.560
<v Speaker 1>not get Africa to were India is in the part

0:36:16.600 --> 0:36:20.040
<v Speaker 1>and other countries are right now, and we've seen the

0:36:20.120 --> 0:36:25.880
<v Speaker 1>trend in Africa to be you know, worsing and alarming,

0:36:26.280 --> 0:36:30.279
<v Speaker 1>with just less than two percent of the people having vaccines,

0:36:30.480 --> 0:36:35.720
<v Speaker 1>and vaccines are not available there. Health system witness people

0:36:35.760 --> 0:36:39.000
<v Speaker 1>are downplaying the virus. They're not being the number of

0:36:39.080 --> 0:36:42.560
<v Speaker 1>deaths in other places. Tibert, thank you so much. We

0:36:42.680 --> 0:36:45.359
<v Speaker 1>really always appreciate when you give us some time. Toilbert Niche,

0:36:45.360 --> 0:36:48.120
<v Speaker 1>to our senior research associate the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School

0:36:48.120 --> 0:36:56.120
<v Speaker 1>of Public Health on the phone from Delaware, the journal now,

0:36:56.200 --> 0:37:04.040
<v Speaker 1>but you let me drive, no, honey, please, l I

0:37:04.160 --> 0:37:21.240
<v Speaker 1>want to drive. Question. This is the drive to the globe.

0:37:22.120 --> 0:37:25.600
<v Speaker 1>M Thanks. We'll drying us to dawn on Bloomberg Radio.

0:37:26.080 --> 0:37:27.759
<v Speaker 1>So Tim and I've been watching the trade today. We've

0:37:27.800 --> 0:37:29.799
<v Speaker 1>been bouncing around, certainly on the equity front. We're off

0:37:29.800 --> 0:37:32.360
<v Speaker 1>our lows, off our highs the day as well, talking

0:37:32.400 --> 0:37:35.200
<v Speaker 1>about the importance it feels like when it comes to

0:37:35.400 --> 0:37:39.000
<v Speaker 1>the bond market, specifically watching that tenure note that you'll

0:37:39.560 --> 0:37:42.399
<v Speaker 1>below one point three. So let's see what it all means.

0:37:42.520 --> 0:37:45.320
<v Speaker 1>Let's get to with Annahan, she's vice president Equity strategis

0:37:45.360 --> 0:37:47.880
<v Speaker 1>at Wells Fargo Securities with us on the phone in

0:37:48.000 --> 0:37:49.960
<v Speaker 1>New York City and a good to have you here

0:37:50.000 --> 0:37:52.440
<v Speaker 1>with Tim and myself. You do watch the equity markets,

0:37:52.480 --> 0:37:54.920
<v Speaker 1>but you know you watch the financial markets. Do you

0:37:55.040 --> 0:37:58.120
<v Speaker 1>feel like the equity markets or the bond market tells

0:37:58.200 --> 0:38:00.719
<v Speaker 1>the true story of what's going on and what we

0:38:00.760 --> 0:38:03.240
<v Speaker 1>can expect in terms of the economic and market environment

0:38:03.360 --> 0:38:07.759
<v Speaker 1>for those publicly held companies. Hi, Carol, I mean I

0:38:07.840 --> 0:38:09.960
<v Speaker 1>think you've got to look at it together, right, because

0:38:10.120 --> 0:38:13.320
<v Speaker 1>both parts equity and the fixed income markets are giving

0:38:13.400 --> 0:38:15.239
<v Speaker 1>you a little bit of a mixed signal when you

0:38:15.320 --> 0:38:18.000
<v Speaker 1>look get on their own, but when you blend them together,

0:38:18.120 --> 0:38:20.640
<v Speaker 1>the pictures starts coming together. So we can start with

0:38:20.719 --> 0:38:23.400
<v Speaker 1>the fixed income markets. You see that yield are dropping

0:38:23.440 --> 0:38:26.680
<v Speaker 1>the tenure below one thirty. It's got people jittery, worried

0:38:26.719 --> 0:38:29.799
<v Speaker 1>about future economic growth here. But you see the pull

0:38:29.880 --> 0:38:32.839
<v Speaker 1>back there is mostly coming out of real yield. It's

0:38:32.880 --> 0:38:36.320
<v Speaker 1>not coming out of the inflation expectation portion, so it

0:38:36.400 --> 0:38:39.960
<v Speaker 1>looks like, okay, it's not necessarily future growth that's really

0:38:40.080 --> 0:38:43.759
<v Speaker 1>taking it. And then you look over towards the equity side.

0:38:43.840 --> 0:38:48.360
<v Speaker 1>What's leading today, you staples, but also financials, right, So

0:38:48.480 --> 0:38:51.080
<v Speaker 1>it's mixed back where you have part of the market

0:38:51.200 --> 0:38:55.160
<v Speaker 1>concerned that you know, accommodation is not enough, it's it's

0:38:55.200 --> 0:38:58.000
<v Speaker 1>got to stay on because uh, you know, inflation is

0:38:58.080 --> 0:39:01.120
<v Speaker 1>too transitory. But you have the other part of market thinking, hey,

0:39:01.200 --> 0:39:04.239
<v Speaker 1>growth will continue. So it's a mixed bag today. So

0:39:04.520 --> 0:39:06.080
<v Speaker 1>so let me go back to the message that the

0:39:06.320 --> 0:39:08.640
<v Speaker 1>bond market is sending, at least as far as as

0:39:08.680 --> 0:39:10.880
<v Speaker 1>you're interpreting it, What is it exactly saying to you?

0:39:11.320 --> 0:39:15.239
<v Speaker 1>With yields dropping like this? When we yield dropped by this,

0:39:15.400 --> 0:39:17.320
<v Speaker 1>generally we think about, you know, the belly of the

0:39:17.360 --> 0:39:19.160
<v Speaker 1>curve or the longer end of the curve as this

0:39:19.440 --> 0:39:23.120
<v Speaker 1>reflection of the growth of the economy or expected inflation. Right,

0:39:23.600 --> 0:39:26.160
<v Speaker 1>But in that aspect, you have to realize the nomenal

0:39:26.239 --> 0:39:29.080
<v Speaker 1>yield moving has two components to it. You have the

0:39:29.160 --> 0:39:31.879
<v Speaker 1>actual real yields portion, and then you have the part

0:39:31.960 --> 0:39:34.440
<v Speaker 1>where then you can back out how much of it

0:39:34.560 --> 0:39:38.279
<v Speaker 1>means actually the inflation expectation of future growth part, and

0:39:38.440 --> 0:39:40.879
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the move, especially since the end of March,

0:39:40.960 --> 0:39:44.040
<v Speaker 1>has come from that real yields portion. I think that

0:39:44.239 --> 0:39:46.239
<v Speaker 1>part by the end of the year is going to

0:39:46.400 --> 0:39:49.520
<v Speaker 1>have an inflection point and trend back upwards. Right now,

0:39:49.640 --> 0:39:52.400
<v Speaker 1>real yields are in negative territory. I think that the

0:39:52.800 --> 0:39:55.880
<v Speaker 1>ten years probably around negative ninety basis points, if not

0:39:56.000 --> 0:39:58.200
<v Speaker 1>more in real yield. I think they'll trim up to

0:39:58.280 --> 0:40:00.880
<v Speaker 1>probably negative fifty by the end of this still negatively

0:40:00.960 --> 0:40:04.520
<v Speaker 1>yield eventually, ye, still negative. It makes it tougher the

0:40:04.600 --> 0:40:07.200
<v Speaker 1>financial sector as well when you see yields low like that,

0:40:07.520 --> 0:40:09.759
<v Speaker 1>which is why you say it is fascinating to look

0:40:09.800 --> 0:40:11.480
<v Speaker 1>at the major industry groups in the S and P

0:40:11.600 --> 0:40:14.680
<v Speaker 1>five or eleven, utilities and consumer staples, as you say,

0:40:14.680 --> 0:40:17.080
<v Speaker 1>which would be kind of a more safer play, right,

0:40:17.200 --> 0:40:20.279
<v Speaker 1>careful play, uh, and then financials in real estate, you know,

0:40:20.400 --> 0:40:23.360
<v Speaker 1>which would speak to recovery, right it's it's it is

0:40:23.400 --> 0:40:27.440
<v Speaker 1>a mixed bag, yep. And something special too that I

0:40:27.520 --> 0:40:31.240
<v Speaker 1>want to highlight here is that youth staples and reads,

0:40:31.640 --> 0:40:34.600
<v Speaker 1>they're very traditionally what we like to classify as low

0:40:34.719 --> 0:40:38.759
<v Speaker 1>volatility sectors. Like you said, Carol's defensive, but not just

0:40:38.920 --> 0:40:43.040
<v Speaker 1>defensive because you know, economically you think about their sensitivity,

0:40:43.280 --> 0:40:47.680
<v Speaker 1>but also because as yields retreat in a growth contracting environment,

0:40:48.000 --> 0:40:50.520
<v Speaker 1>these kind of groups tend to hold up better. They

0:40:50.600 --> 0:40:53.759
<v Speaker 1>tend to outperform the market. And low ball is a

0:40:54.000 --> 0:40:57.800
<v Speaker 1>tactical positioning that we recently recommended for those who you know,

0:40:57.960 --> 0:41:00.279
<v Speaker 1>need to lighten up on on that sting from the

0:41:00.440 --> 0:41:03.280
<v Speaker 1>from yields retreating. Hey, you know, we just spoke earlier

0:41:03.320 --> 0:41:05.840
<v Speaker 1>in this show to Arnold Donald, the President and CEO

0:41:06.000 --> 0:41:10.520
<v Speaker 1>of Carnival Cruise Corporation. He told us that demand is robust,

0:41:10.600 --> 0:41:13.400
<v Speaker 1>pricing is strong, and in fact that bookings in two

0:41:13.880 --> 0:41:16.960
<v Speaker 1>pricing is also stronger than all the way back in

0:41:17.280 --> 0:41:20.479
<v Speaker 1>twenty nine. I'm wondering about mid cycle recovery place because

0:41:20.480 --> 0:41:22.520
<v Speaker 1>I know you've got your eyes on leisure and travel

0:41:22.640 --> 0:41:25.319
<v Speaker 1>people looking for experiences over things. What do you got

0:41:25.360 --> 0:41:29.400
<v Speaker 1>your eye on somewhere? Like you said, the cruise industry

0:41:29.520 --> 0:41:32.520
<v Speaker 1>is a great example, but anything tied to that where

0:41:32.560 --> 0:41:37.160
<v Speaker 1>people can travel again, hotels, leisure when you're going out somewhere,

0:41:37.280 --> 0:41:40.080
<v Speaker 1>and really, when you say experiences, it's you know, kind

0:41:40.120 --> 0:41:42.719
<v Speaker 1>of a cheesy phrase, but it's true. Think about those

0:41:42.760 --> 0:41:46.759
<v Speaker 1>parts where lodging, um air fairs, car rental, these kind

0:41:46.760 --> 0:41:48.640
<v Speaker 1>of things are people what people want to do because

0:41:48.680 --> 0:41:51.720
<v Speaker 1>we haven't been able to. So that's that mid cycle

0:41:51.800 --> 0:41:54.640
<v Speaker 1>exposure we like. And we still think it's too early

0:41:54.760 --> 0:41:57.600
<v Speaker 1>to shift. It's not into the late cycle place. I

0:41:57.719 --> 0:42:01.200
<v Speaker 1>think that the economic recovery were it is today, we're

0:42:01.280 --> 0:42:03.399
<v Speaker 1>still going to see some robust growth for a couple

0:42:03.400 --> 0:42:06.919
<v Speaker 1>of quarters, especially on the earnings front. Might we stay

0:42:06.960 --> 0:42:11.440
<v Speaker 1>in this mid cycle world for a while. It's very

0:42:11.520 --> 0:42:14.719
<v Speaker 1>possible because if you think about one thing that's kind

0:42:14.760 --> 0:42:17.520
<v Speaker 1>of dampened earnings growth a little bit at least for

0:42:17.640 --> 0:42:20.640
<v Speaker 1>seeing evidence of that in this earning season is the

0:42:20.719 --> 0:42:23.680
<v Speaker 1>supply constraints and that labor shortage you've heard of time

0:42:23.719 --> 0:42:27.640
<v Speaker 1>time and again. But what's also kind of not offsetting

0:42:27.680 --> 0:42:31.640
<v Speaker 1>it necessarily but also helping to extend the economic cycle

0:42:31.760 --> 0:42:35.200
<v Speaker 1>is that corporates themselves they're doing more supply management. And

0:42:35.280 --> 0:42:39.080
<v Speaker 1>that supply management because they know that they have low inventories.

0:42:39.320 --> 0:42:43.239
<v Speaker 1>They're not rushing necessarily to restock these inventories, but they're

0:42:43.360 --> 0:42:46.080
<v Speaker 1>managing their supply chain so that they can extend their

0:42:46.120 --> 0:42:48.920
<v Speaker 1>corporate growth out. I think that's helping as well, and

0:42:48.960 --> 0:42:51.040
<v Speaker 1>they going to keep us still in that mid cycle

0:42:51.080 --> 0:42:54.840
<v Speaker 1>for a little longer. What are you seeing with earnings

0:42:54.960 --> 0:42:57.759
<v Speaker 1>right now? I'm just thinking about mid cycle right Wait

0:42:57.960 --> 0:42:59.960
<v Speaker 1>a minute, Well, it's it's interesting because here we are

0:43:00.000 --> 0:43:02.080
<v Speaker 1>of the banks. The big banks have all reported, right,

0:43:02.200 --> 0:43:03.880
<v Speaker 1>so just the beginning of earnings. It is just the

0:43:03.920 --> 0:43:05.880
<v Speaker 1>beginning of earning season. But this is like what marks

0:43:05.880 --> 0:43:07.799
<v Speaker 1>the beginning of earning season. It gives us so much

0:43:07.840 --> 0:43:11.200
<v Speaker 1>inside anna into what these companies are thinking about the economy.

0:43:11.239 --> 0:43:12.799
<v Speaker 1>And we have gotten a handful of companies as well,

0:43:12.840 --> 0:43:16.360
<v Speaker 1>including airlines and PEPSI outside of the big banks. But

0:43:16.560 --> 0:43:18.759
<v Speaker 1>how would you characterize the results that we've we've heard

0:43:18.840 --> 0:43:22.200
<v Speaker 1>thus far because investor expectations are really high here I'm

0:43:22.239 --> 0:43:26.399
<v Speaker 1>talking to the tune of over sixty earnings growth. Yep.

0:43:26.560 --> 0:43:29.000
<v Speaker 1>You know you hit something very key here is that

0:43:29.200 --> 0:43:32.400
<v Speaker 1>invest expectations because right now you're seeing that a lot

0:43:32.440 --> 0:43:35.480
<v Speaker 1>of the corporate over the last two quarters were beating

0:43:35.560 --> 0:43:39.120
<v Speaker 1>EPs estimates, but those EPs estimates were cell side. Now

0:43:39.200 --> 0:43:41.759
<v Speaker 1>the way that this earning season has started, same thing.

0:43:42.080 --> 0:43:44.480
<v Speaker 1>You're getting a good amount of EPs beats out there,

0:43:44.760 --> 0:43:47.759
<v Speaker 1>but the reaction to these beats hasn't been so hot.

0:43:47.920 --> 0:43:51.319
<v Speaker 1>You're not seeing this great one day reward after announcement.

0:43:51.600 --> 0:43:55.399
<v Speaker 1>It's because investor expectations are elevated. But something to keep

0:43:55.440 --> 0:43:57.960
<v Speaker 1>in mind is that what also people look at here

0:43:58.440 --> 0:44:01.480
<v Speaker 1>is what our corporates saying in those transcripts, and what

0:44:01.640 --> 0:44:04.520
<v Speaker 1>we've highlighted is there's a lot of focus on margin

0:44:04.600 --> 0:44:07.799
<v Speaker 1>pressure and input costs for those corporates who are saying

0:44:07.840 --> 0:44:11.000
<v Speaker 1>that they're able to pass along those elevated input costs

0:44:11.280 --> 0:44:15.160
<v Speaker 1>and able to maintain those margins because right now demand

0:44:15.200 --> 0:44:18.280
<v Speaker 1>remains so robust and they can manage those supply chains.

0:44:18.600 --> 0:44:21.160
<v Speaker 1>You know, that's that's a pretty good sign. But we

0:44:21.360 --> 0:44:24.600
<v Speaker 1>also have corporates that are talking about, hey, these margin

0:44:24.719 --> 0:44:28.080
<v Speaker 1>pressures are are coming at us. We might eat into

0:44:28.239 --> 0:44:30.440
<v Speaker 1>US and the next couple of quarters. And I think

0:44:30.520 --> 0:44:33.600
<v Speaker 1>for those companies in particular, investors might be getting a

0:44:33.680 --> 0:44:36.719
<v Speaker 1>little more uncertain on But it is tricky that I mean,

0:44:36.800 --> 0:44:39.000
<v Speaker 1>I think Tim and I we in talking with various

0:44:39.040 --> 0:44:43.360
<v Speaker 1>CEOs and leaders UH and industry watchers. It's not the

0:44:43.520 --> 0:44:46.280
<v Speaker 1>same when it comes to wage constraints or labor constraints.

0:44:46.320 --> 0:44:48.279
<v Speaker 1>We found that with Arno old Donald, they they tap

0:44:48.320 --> 0:44:50.839
<v Speaker 1>into a global workforce and he seems to be pretty

0:44:50.880 --> 0:44:54.719
<v Speaker 1>comfortable countries and it's fine hiring, it's massive, and he

0:44:54.760 --> 0:44:57.239
<v Speaker 1>didn't seem to have any problems. So I just do wonder,

0:44:57.320 --> 0:44:59.200
<v Speaker 1>how do you how do you figure out is there

0:44:59.320 --> 0:45:02.160
<v Speaker 1>a narrative here, really a true now when it comes

0:45:02.200 --> 0:45:06.040
<v Speaker 1>to higher wages and the impact it might have. You know, Carol,

0:45:06.160 --> 0:45:09.040
<v Speaker 1>that's our job every day as a macro strategist. You

0:45:09.160 --> 0:45:11.759
<v Speaker 1>gotta go from the top down, but pay attention to

0:45:11.880 --> 0:45:15.200
<v Speaker 1>those little details and put together what is the big theme.

0:45:15.360 --> 0:45:18.080
<v Speaker 1>And so far, I think it helps start when you

0:45:18.160 --> 0:45:21.279
<v Speaker 1>kind of focus a little more by industry, when you

0:45:21.400 --> 0:45:25.239
<v Speaker 1>look at kind of more the the industrial sectors. So far,

0:45:25.320 --> 0:45:27.879
<v Speaker 1>they're saying, hey, we can maintain margin, we can pass

0:45:27.920 --> 0:45:31.279
<v Speaker 1>along price. But some other parts of the market you're

0:45:31.280 --> 0:45:34.160
<v Speaker 1>seeing that these labor constraints are really eating into those

0:45:34.239 --> 0:45:36.680
<v Speaker 1>margins and they're not so sure how that's going to

0:45:36.840 --> 0:45:39.160
<v Speaker 1>keep up. But that's the name of the game from

0:45:39.239 --> 0:45:43.880
<v Speaker 1>maid cycle economic recovery. It's not this easy dumpster diving

0:45:43.960 --> 0:45:46.239
<v Speaker 1>that we saw early fighting that's right, where you just

0:45:46.280 --> 0:45:49.440
<v Speaker 1>can kind of go anywhere. No, it's right. It makes

0:45:49.760 --> 0:45:52.280
<v Speaker 1>so much sense. Anna, Thanks so much, really great conversation,

0:45:52.320 --> 0:45:55.920
<v Speaker 1>Annah and vice president equity strategist Wells Fargo Securities joining

0:45:56.000 --> 0:46:00.640
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone in New York City. Thanks for

0:46:00.719 --> 0:46:04.480
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0:46:04.600 --> 0:46:06.759
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