WEBVTT - Marshall: Need more attention on manufacturing (Correct)

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<v Speaker 1>Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Cameron Moscow.

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<v Speaker 1>your treasury down ten thirty seconds, the yield one eight percent.

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<v Speaker 1>Nim X screwed oil up four tens per cent or

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one cents to forty fifty four of varrel called

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<v Speaker 1>max school down to ten per cent or a dollar

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<v Speaker 1>seventy to twelve ounce the Euro, a dollar eleven fifty eight,

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<v Speaker 1>the N one eleven point one five, MARC HATO and

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<v Speaker 1>a definitive agreement to be acquired by Vista Equity Partners

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<v Speaker 1>for thirty five dollars twenty five it's a share in

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<v Speaker 1>cash or a total value of about one point seven

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<v Speaker 1>nine billion dollars. And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom

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<v Speaker 1>and Michael Caramelska, thank you very much. Data Marshall. It

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<v Speaker 1>was a career Foreign Service officer loaned to the White House,

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<v Speaker 1>worked on international economic issues in the George H. W.

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<v Speaker 1>Bush and Clinton white House is truly bipartisan look at

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<v Speaker 1>what was going on in the world those days. He's

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<v Speaker 1>now the head of the Transnational Strategy Group and he's

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<v Speaker 1>talking about this campaign for president and Mike he's qualified

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<v Speaker 1>if you talk about trade because he's got a degree

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<v Speaker 1>in physics from Case Western Reserve, which is that's a

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<v Speaker 1>very very cool degree. You've got to be from Ohio

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<v Speaker 1>to understand this this campaign, there's no question about that.

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<v Speaker 1>But Data, I I found it very interesting. Uh you're

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<v Speaker 1>writing that, um, as the candidates try to figure out

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<v Speaker 1>the US economic place in the world in these globalized days,

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<v Speaker 1>that what we're getting is sort of an effort to

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<v Speaker 1>repair the airplane while in flight. Uh, nobody has spent

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of time thinking through exactly what should be done.

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<v Speaker 1>They're responding more to public pressure than to a clear

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<v Speaker 1>strategy for how you run a globalized economy. Well that's right.

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<v Speaker 1>In good morning, gentlemen. Thank you so much for putting

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<v Speaker 1>me on this show. UM. Yeah, it's um. Globalization has

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<v Speaker 1>been around for a very long time. Uh. The effects,

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<v Speaker 1>both positive and negative, have been pretty manifest in the

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<v Speaker 1>United States and around the world. But UM, I think

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<v Speaker 1>it's fair to say that in this particular election, for

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<v Speaker 1>a number of reasons, these issues have become front and center. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>The concerns regarding wage growth, inequality, jobs growth, manufacturing of

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<v Speaker 1>course China both as an economic competitor and market, and

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<v Speaker 1>also of course political military challenges regarding China. Uh, the

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<v Speaker 1>issues involving high tech industry of the United States. Uh.

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<v Speaker 1>Many many of these kinds of issues are swirling around

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<v Speaker 1>right now, and UH there are there are some common

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<v Speaker 1>sort of axes that one should think about in trying

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<v Speaker 1>to uh understand what is going on. But for better

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<v Speaker 1>or for worse, through to November eight, these issues are

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<v Speaker 1>going to be white hot. You mentioned repairing the airplane

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<v Speaker 1>while in flight, you know. Um, there has been a

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<v Speaker 1>tremendous amount of discussion in sort of academic, business, political circles, UM,

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<v Speaker 1>foreign policy circles in Washington, New York and elsewhere over

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<v Speaker 1>many years about these trends, but they really have not

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<v Speaker 1>been focused on very much in prior elections. Are only

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<v Speaker 1>really at the margins this time. For better or for worse.

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<v Speaker 1>The issues are out there. The question of course is

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<v Speaker 1>um uh, how will they be analyzed? Who the voters

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<v Speaker 1>will elect and of course who that president, what that

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<v Speaker 1>president is going to end up doing about this, because

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<v Speaker 1>certainly some changes need to be made. In my view,

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<v Speaker 1>when I look at t p P, there has to

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<v Speaker 1>be an international response to our presidential election. And frankly

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<v Speaker 1>to what the two candidates are hearing from their supporters,

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<v Speaker 1>I believe both of them are hearing that they're not

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<v Speaker 1>thrilled about t p P from the American prism. What's

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<v Speaker 1>the foreign response to that observation? Well, are the eleven

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<v Speaker 1>TPP partners with the United States? UM, of course are

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<v Speaker 1>very positive on it. Um they very much want to

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<v Speaker 1>see it passed. Of course, the as we recall, the

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<v Speaker 1>agreement has been negotiated, but it needs the legislation that's

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<v Speaker 1>required to put into effect is still pending in Congress

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<v Speaker 1>and there's a lot of questions about whether that will

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<v Speaker 1>be passed anytime soon, including in the lame duck period.

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<v Speaker 1>But as we can see from the President's recent trip

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<v Speaker 1>to Asia, where he of course visited a number of

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<v Speaker 1>countries that are partners for the Transpacific Partnership negotiation UM,

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<v Speaker 1>they there is a strong degree of support. I'm sure

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<v Speaker 1>the President, who took along his U. S. Trade representative

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<v Speaker 1>as well, was trying to be as UM optimistic and

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<v Speaker 1>as positive and serving. The President sees this negotiation and

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<v Speaker 1>one that is still underway across the Atlantic, as key

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<v Speaker 1>elements of his UM legacy, perhaps some of the top

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<v Speaker 1>elements of his economic part of his legacy. So he's

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<v Speaker 1>going to push it, but it's going to it has

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<v Speaker 1>received and I believe will continue to see significant resistance politically,

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<v Speaker 1>uh and by both parties, which is another interesting realignment

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<v Speaker 1>that we're seeing, certainly by by all three candidates that

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<v Speaker 1>are personally running. Well, go ahead place Well, I was

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<v Speaker 1>gonna ask the the issue seems to be you can

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<v Speaker 1>make an economic case for for the macro economy for

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<v Speaker 1>t PP, but it's very hard to make a case

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<v Speaker 1>to the working man who feels his job is in

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<v Speaker 1>danger because of trade. How would you adjust trade deals

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<v Speaker 1>to account for that, to to put a floor under

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<v Speaker 1>the problems for the worker. Well, that's a very good question,

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<v Speaker 1>and that really is the question is how do we

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<v Speaker 1>move forward with trade deals in the future, Because certainly,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean everyone makes the point that of humanity lives

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<v Speaker 1>outside of the borders of this country, about se economy,

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<v Speaker 1>the world's economies outside, so clearly trade needs to continue

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<v Speaker 1>even without any additional trade agreements. Obviously would there's a

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<v Speaker 1>tremendous amount of international trade, but the way it has

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<v Speaker 1>worked out is that it has in my view, created

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<v Speaker 1>some real tensions and inequalities. And as you point out,

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<v Speaker 1>the issue I think is what you do about those

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<v Speaker 1>who have not been benefited by globalization before? That is

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<v Speaker 1>really the question. And here I think that the data

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<v Speaker 1>is pretty clear on it, both um academic data is

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<v Speaker 1>a very widely reported um insided source and politically so

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<v Speaker 1>certainly there needs to be uh a lot more tension

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<v Speaker 1>paid to manufacturing. Let's come back on, Dana. Let's come

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<v Speaker 1>back and continue this discussion. Dana Marshall, where the SEA

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<v Speaker 1>worked with Bush SR and Clinton on trade dynamics and

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<v Speaker 1>as an important voice to consider on America and Trade

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Surveillance. We are cutting down to the opening bill

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<v Speaker 1>Good morning. I'm Kerra in Moscow, Allow with Tom Keene

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<v Speaker 1>and Michael McKee and the opening val brought to you

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<v Speaker 1>by se I Imagine assets servicing and constrained by infrastructure

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<v Speaker 1>or investment operations that predictively respond to change. SEI is

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<v Speaker 1>creating the future state got se I c dot com

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<v Speaker 1>slash Imagine stocks are a little change to hire at

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<v Speaker 1>the open sn P five hundred up about a tenth

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<v Speaker 1>of upper center one point to twenty one hundred Dow

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<v Speaker 1>Jones Industrial average up a tenth of upper center eighteen

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<v Speaker 1>points to seventeen thousand, eight hundred ninety two. And then

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<v Speaker 1>as to acts, up a tenth of upper center six

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<v Speaker 1>points to forty nine thirty nine ten. Your treasury down

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<v Speaker 1>ten thirty seconds the old point eight eight percent yield

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<v Speaker 1>on the two year point on three percent. Now am

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<v Speaker 1>Ex scrude oil up half per cent or twenty four

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<v Speaker 1>cents to fifties seven of barrel, Comac school down two

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<v Speaker 1>tens per cent or two dollars fifty cents to twelve ounce.

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<v Speaker 1>The euro a dollar eleven sixty one, the en one

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<v Speaker 1>eleven point to zero. Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much,

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<v Speaker 1>Dana Marshall with us working with George H. W. Bush

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<v Speaker 1>and President Clinton is well, Mike, why don't you pick

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<v Speaker 1>it up on T P P and on what we

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<v Speaker 1>were talking about earlier? We were talking about I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>obviously you can't under the rules Congress can't amend the bill,

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<v Speaker 1>so it will stand or fall on its own, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>this trade deal. But you were telling us how before

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<v Speaker 1>we had to go to break, how you would fix

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<v Speaker 1>future trade deals. Right. Well, the yeah, I think that

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<v Speaker 1>if you look at why it is that these trade

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<v Speaker 1>deals have elicited the kind of resistance that we've seen,

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<v Speaker 1>even in three sort of frankly inconsequential deals like very

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<v Speaker 1>small ones would negotiated a few decades ago with small

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<v Speaker 1>countries in the Persian Gulf, maybe for political reasons. A

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<v Speaker 1>lot of it has to do with the effect on workers,

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<v Speaker 1>and then in the manufacturing sector. And let's face if

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<v Speaker 1>you look at the manufacturing numbers right now, either output

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<v Speaker 1>or employment, it's flat. In fact, it looks like even

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<v Speaker 1>trending down a bit in with some charts that I've seen.

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<v Speaker 1>So that has to be the big focus. So what

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<v Speaker 1>do you do about either perhaps trying to amend TPP

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<v Speaker 1>to try to make it something that either candidate would

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<v Speaker 1>accept or for a future deal. I think you need

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<v Speaker 1>to look at the impacts on manufacturing, and there are

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<v Speaker 1>a number of areas. I think maybe two or three

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<v Speaker 1>baskets I would highlight. Certainly one of them is UH

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of currency misalignment or manipulations, is something that

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<v Speaker 1>there's been a lot of discussion about, a lot of analysis,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's a very very big factor UH that needs

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<v Speaker 1>to be looked at. There's a school of thought, and

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<v Speaker 1>I think I would subscribe to it that that the

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<v Speaker 1>currency manipulation issue was not sufficiently dealt with UH in

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<v Speaker 1>the TPP negotiations. There's a lot of reasons for that.

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<v Speaker 1>You get into it UH rules of origin, which is

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<v Speaker 1>a kind of a very esoteric sounding thing, but it's

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<v Speaker 1>very important in trade agreement. It basically means what what

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<v Speaker 1>amount of components of a trading partner is the minimum

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<v Speaker 1>that you need in a product in order to for

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<v Speaker 1>it to benefit from a trade agreement. There's was a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of controversy about rules of origin, which we're seen

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<v Speaker 1>as potentially threatening US manufacturing by being too low that

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<v Speaker 1>it would permit effectively let's say Chinese products China of

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<v Speaker 1>course not being a TPP member a country to flow

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<v Speaker 1>say into Japan and being incorporated into a Japanese car

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<v Speaker 1>that is sent UH with a gradually declining duty into

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<v Speaker 1>the United States. That was the problem UH. The treatment

0:12:10.679 --> 0:12:16.480
<v Speaker 1>of state enterprises, which which are important in a number

0:12:16.480 --> 0:12:19.880
<v Speaker 1>of the t t member countries, are also in areas

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<v Speaker 1>that needs to be looked at more data. The minutia

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<v Speaker 1>of this is important. With your experience with President Bush

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<v Speaker 1>Senior and with President Clinton. What's different about our caution

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<v Speaker 1>and how suspect we are about this agreement versus the

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<v Speaker 1>previous eight agreements you are directly involved with. Well, again,

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<v Speaker 1>an interesting question if you look back, for example, and

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<v Speaker 1>when NAFTA was being negotiated and when it finally passed

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<v Speaker 1>in the mid nineties, at that time, the United States

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<v Speaker 1>actually had a small trade surplus with Mexico. That surplus

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<v Speaker 1>is now loaded into a huge something like llion dollar deficit.

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<v Speaker 1>I think that that is an important factor. And I

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<v Speaker 1>think also history has shown where we've seen mounching trade

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<v Speaker 1>deficits which are serious need to be looked at, which

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<v Speaker 1>do impact uh US economy. I think that these are

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<v Speaker 1>it's the history that we've seen with these negotiations that

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<v Speaker 1>has um I think changed. Um. You know, I'm a,

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<v Speaker 1>as you mentioned, former State Department person, so I'm very

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<v Speaker 1>used to using trying to use economic tools to achieve

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<v Speaker 1>US foreign policy ends. That's very legitimate. It needs to continue.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the challenge for the next administration will be

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<v Speaker 1>which of those economic tools can be used and which

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<v Speaker 1>that would be effective and advanced foreign policy. In first,

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<v Speaker 1>just just one example on copyright, will the value of

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<v Speaker 1>our creative content be improved with TPP. Well, that is

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<v Speaker 1>what that is one of the main reasons um for

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<v Speaker 1>the administration pursuing it. If you look at the other

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<v Speaker 1>side of the ledger, on the intellectual property right side, UH,

0:14:14.040 --> 0:14:20.880
<v Speaker 1>copyright protection, digital trade, avoiding, localization, these are seen as

0:14:20.960 --> 0:14:26.800
<v Speaker 1>breakthrough areas for the TPP document, but it's very difficult

0:14:26.920 --> 0:14:30.520
<v Speaker 1>to quantify. Just a week or two ago, the International

0:14:30.560 --> 0:14:33.640
<v Speaker 1>Trade Commission is required by law to do an economic

0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:36.600
<v Speaker 1>evaluation of trade agreements. The i t C put out

0:14:37.160 --> 0:14:41.920
<v Speaker 1>it's analysis of TPT and it showed, frankly, a very

0:14:42.000 --> 0:14:45.280
<v Speaker 1>poor performance in manufacturing. You know, why would you want

0:14:45.320 --> 0:14:49.360
<v Speaker 1>to negotiating ass in agreement that was not going to

0:14:49.400 --> 0:14:52.160
<v Speaker 1>be positive in manufacturing. On the other side of the ledger, though,

0:14:52.480 --> 0:14:56.000
<v Speaker 1>it did say that it that many of the individuals

0:14:56.000 --> 0:14:59.400
<v Speaker 1>and companies have talked to UH extolled virtues of this

0:14:59.640 --> 0:15:06.360
<v Speaker 1>on the i P side, but without quantification. Well then, uh, well,

0:15:06.560 --> 0:15:08.880
<v Speaker 1>let's ask this when you look at you you talked

0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:11.560
<v Speaker 1>about the trade deficit with Mexico. What should be our

0:15:11.760 --> 0:15:16.400
<v Speaker 1>foreign policy, foreign economic policy, what should we want from

0:15:16.440 --> 0:15:21.560
<v Speaker 1>other countries? Well, that's that's also a very complicated question.

0:15:21.600 --> 0:15:23.560
<v Speaker 1>I mean, if you look if you look at the

0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:27.760
<v Speaker 1>subject as from a business perspective, Let's see, you're running

0:15:27.760 --> 0:15:30.880
<v Speaker 1>a transnational business. What you're trying to do, of course

0:15:31.120 --> 0:15:36.160
<v Speaker 1>is to put production UH and trade and consumption into

0:15:36.760 --> 0:15:38.720
<v Speaker 1>UH the places in the world, which is going to

0:15:38.760 --> 0:15:43.040
<v Speaker 1>maximize your return on investment and shareholder value. But that

0:15:43.400 --> 0:15:49.600
<v Speaker 1>is not necessarily the same goal as UM A government has. UH.

0:15:49.760 --> 0:15:52.680
<v Speaker 1>National economic goals are not necessarily the same as the

0:15:52.720 --> 0:15:57.080
<v Speaker 1>goals of transnational enterprises. It seems to me that that

0:15:57.480 --> 0:16:00.080
<v Speaker 1>the next president to whoever he or she might be,

0:16:01.000 --> 0:16:04.040
<v Speaker 1>is going to be elected with by an electorate that's

0:16:04.200 --> 0:16:06.800
<v Speaker 1>very concerned about these things and it's looking for change.

0:16:06.840 --> 0:16:10.360
<v Speaker 1>Of course, like any election, electorate's not expert. They're looking

0:16:10.400 --> 0:16:13.920
<v Speaker 1>for the experts the administration change it. I think certainly

0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:18.720
<v Speaker 1>there needs to be some changes in manufacturing policy and

0:16:18.800 --> 0:16:20.960
<v Speaker 1>on trade. And I would also say, just at the

0:16:21.040 --> 0:16:24.800
<v Speaker 1>last point that it's not only the international side. There's

0:16:24.840 --> 0:16:27.280
<v Speaker 1>also domestic steps that can be taken, for example, an

0:16:27.320 --> 0:16:29.800
<v Speaker 1>infrastructure bank. Right, We're gonna have to leave it there.

0:16:29.880 --> 0:16:32.640
<v Speaker 1>Dana Marshall, thank you so much. Transnational Strategy Group, what

0:16:33.120 --> 0:16:35.400
<v Speaker 1>that was a joy to get the same discussion on

0:16:35.480 --> 0:16:40.560
<v Speaker 1>TPP where Mike I find there's oftentimes um a lot

0:16:40.560 --> 0:16:44.880
<v Speaker 1>of heat and certitude unless analysis. Uh Mike, look at

0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:50.040
<v Speaker 1>that headline. Yeah, that's a big number. Billion dollars, Saudi

0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:53.160
<v Speaker 1>Arabia said to Wade bond sale, this is course off cutter.

0:16:53.280 --> 0:16:54.920
<v Speaker 1>I believe it was nine billion off the top of

0:16:54.960 --> 0:16:57.680
<v Speaker 1>my head. Don't have it and from me fifteen billion

0:16:58.720 --> 0:17:02.960
<v Speaker 1>dollars as UM fifty oil in the chronic nature of

0:17:03.000 --> 0:17:07.880
<v Speaker 1>oil here Brent crude down fourteen since I note gold

0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:12.160
<v Speaker 1>down four dollars as well twelve Saudi Arabia to Wade

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:18.840
<v Speaker 1>bond sale of fifteen billion. Time not to check in

0:17:18.880 --> 0:17:22.000
<v Speaker 1>with Michael Barr and get the latest world of national headlines. Mike, Tom,

0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:24.920
<v Speaker 1>thank you very much. Just two years ago, the Braunsils

0:17:25.040 --> 0:17:28.679
<v Speaker 1>River in southeast Texas had run dry in places because

0:17:28.720 --> 0:17:32.159
<v Speaker 1>of drought. Today, communities along the Bronzils are dealing with

0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:35.479
<v Speaker 1>flooding that has killed at least six people. The National

0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.600
<v Speaker 1>Weather Service says the river will likely crest at record

0:17:38.720 --> 0:17:43.159
<v Speaker 1>levels by mid day today. In Fort Bend County, the

0:17:43.200 --> 0:17:46.720
<v Speaker 1>suspected Taliban gunmen shot and killed at least sixteen people today.

0:17:46.720 --> 0:17:50.280
<v Speaker 1>In Afghanistan, it is the deadliest single attack the group

0:17:50.359 --> 0:17:53.800
<v Speaker 1>has made since naming a new leader last week. A

0:17:53.880 --> 0:17:58.159
<v Speaker 1>spokesman for the northern province of Kundus says insurgents dressed

0:17:58.160 --> 0:18:02.160
<v Speaker 1>in military uniform stopped convoy of buses. Initially, about two

0:18:02.200 --> 0:18:05.520
<v Speaker 1>hundred hostages were taken, more than a hundred fifty freed,

0:18:05.920 --> 0:18:08.840
<v Speaker 1>and more than thirty are still being held by the Taliban.

0:18:09.280 --> 0:18:13.000
<v Speaker 1>About forty thousand striking Verizon employees say they are returning

0:18:13.040 --> 0:18:16.520
<v Speaker 1>to work tomorrow after reaching a tentative contract agreement. The

0:18:16.640 --> 0:18:21.359
<v Speaker 1>company and unions say the deal reached Friday includes about

0:18:21.920 --> 0:18:25.560
<v Speaker 1>new call center jobs and nearly eleven percent in raises

0:18:25.960 --> 0:18:29.000
<v Speaker 1>over four years. Global News twenty four hours a day,

0:18:29.080 --> 0:18:32.280
<v Speaker 1>powered by our four hundred journalists and more than a

0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.240
<v Speaker 1>hundred fifty news bureaus around the world now. Michael Barr, Tom,

0:18:35.359 --> 0:18:37.359
<v Speaker 1>Michael bar thanks so much for look at ecuties bonds.

0:18:37.359 --> 0:18:40.800
<v Speaker 1>Currencies come out is a yen weaker one eleven twenty three,

0:18:40.920 --> 0:18:43.760
<v Speaker 1>some persistent weakness in the end. We see the same

0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:47.160
<v Speaker 1>thing with red membies six point five eight you won

0:18:47.440 --> 0:18:50.879
<v Speaker 1>per dollar. I also know Brazilian real three point five

0:18:51.040 --> 0:18:54.600
<v Speaker 1>nine weaker over the last few days. Michael McKee and

0:18:54.600 --> 0:19:02.639
<v Speaker 1>Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance is brought to you

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<v Speaker 1>by land Rover. If it's in your nature to cast

0:19:04.560 --> 0:19:06.720
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