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Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day at Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Cameron Moscow.

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Speaker 1: higher with the SNP EVENY futures up three points, Dow

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Speaker 1: EMUNY futures of thirty eight, NAS documenty futures up nine.

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Speaker 1: The decks in Germany's down two tens per cent ten

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Speaker 1: your treasury down ten thirty seconds, the yield one eight percent.

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Speaker 1: Nim X screwed oil up four tens per cent or

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Speaker 1: twenty one cents to forty fifty four of varrel called

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Speaker 1: max school down to ten per cent or a dollar

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Speaker 1: seventy to twelve ounce the Euro, a dollar eleven fifty eight,

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Speaker 1: the N one eleven point one five, MARC HATO and

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Speaker 1: a definitive agreement to be acquired by Vista Equity Partners

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Speaker 1: for thirty five dollars twenty five it's a share in

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Speaker 1: cash or a total value of about one point seven

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Speaker 1: nine billion dollars. And that's a Bloomberg business flash. Tom

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Speaker 1: and Michael Caramelska, thank you very much. Data Marshall. It

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Speaker 1: was a career Foreign Service officer loaned to the White House,

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Speaker 1: worked on international economic issues in the George H. W.

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Speaker 1: Bush and Clinton white House is truly bipartisan look at

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Speaker 1: what was going on in the world those days. He's

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Speaker 1: now the head of the Transnational Strategy Group and he's

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Speaker 1: talking about this campaign for president and Mike he's qualified

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Speaker 1: if you talk about trade because he's got a degree

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Speaker 1: in physics from Case Western Reserve, which is that's a

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Speaker 1: very very cool degree. You've got to be from Ohio

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Speaker 1: to understand this this campaign, there's no question about that.

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Speaker 1: But Data, I I found it very interesting. Uh you're

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Speaker 1: writing that, um, as the candidates try to figure out

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Speaker 1: the US economic place in the world in these globalized days,

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Speaker 1: that what we're getting is sort of an effort to

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Speaker 1: repair the airplane while in flight. Uh, nobody has spent

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Speaker 1: a lot of time thinking through exactly what should be done.

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Speaker 1: They're responding more to public pressure than to a clear

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Speaker 1: strategy for how you run a globalized economy. Well that's right.

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Speaker 1: In good morning, gentlemen. Thank you so much for putting

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Speaker 1: me on this show. UM. Yeah, it's um. Globalization has

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Speaker 1: been around for a very long time. Uh. The effects,

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Speaker 1: both positive and negative, have been pretty manifest in the

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Speaker 1: United States and around the world. But UM, I think

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Speaker 1: it's fair to say that in this particular election, for

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Speaker 1: a number of reasons, these issues have become front and center. Uh.

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Speaker 1: The concerns regarding wage growth, inequality, jobs growth, manufacturing of

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Speaker 1: course China both as an economic competitor and market, and

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Speaker 1: also of course political military challenges regarding China. Uh, the

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Speaker 1: issues involving high tech industry of the United States. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Many many of these kinds of issues are swirling around

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Speaker 1: right now, and UH there are there are some common

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Speaker 1: sort of axes that one should think about in trying

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Speaker 1: to uh understand what is going on. But for better

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Speaker 1: or for worse, through to November eight, these issues are

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Speaker 1: going to be white hot. You mentioned repairing the airplane

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Speaker 1: while in flight, you know. Um, there has been a

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Speaker 1: tremendous amount of discussion in sort of academic, business, political circles, UM,

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Speaker 1: foreign policy circles in Washington, New York and elsewhere over

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Speaker 1: many years about these trends, but they really have not

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Speaker 1: been focused on very much in prior elections. Are only

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Speaker 1: really at the margins this time. For better or for worse.

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Speaker 1: The issues are out there. The question of course is

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Speaker 1: um uh, how will they be analyzed? Who the voters

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Speaker 1: will elect and of course who that president, what that

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Speaker 1: president is going to end up doing about this, because

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Speaker 1: certainly some changes need to be made. In my view,

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Speaker 1: when I look at t p P, there has to

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Speaker 1: be an international response to our presidential election. And frankly

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Speaker 1: to what the two candidates are hearing from their supporters,

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Speaker 1: I believe both of them are hearing that they're not

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Speaker 1: thrilled about t p P from the American prism. What's

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Speaker 1: the foreign response to that observation? Well, are the eleven

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Speaker 1: TPP partners with the United States? UM, of course are

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Speaker 1: very positive on it. Um they very much want to

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Speaker 1: see it passed. Of course, the as we recall, the

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Speaker 1: agreement has been negotiated, but it needs the legislation that's

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Speaker 1: required to put into effect is still pending in Congress

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Speaker 1: and there's a lot of questions about whether that will

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Speaker 1: be passed anytime soon, including in the lame duck period.

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Speaker 1: But as we can see from the President's recent trip

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Speaker 1: to Asia, where he of course visited a number of

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Speaker 1: countries that are partners for the Transpacific Partnership negotiation UM,

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Speaker 1: they there is a strong degree of support. I'm sure

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Speaker 1: the President, who took along his U. S. Trade representative

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Speaker 1: as well, was trying to be as UM optimistic and

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Speaker 1: as positive and serving. The President sees this negotiation and

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Speaker 1: one that is still underway across the Atlantic, as key

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Speaker 1: elements of his UM legacy, perhaps some of the top

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Speaker 1: elements of his economic part of his legacy. So he's

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Speaker 1: going to push it, but it's going to it has

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Speaker 1: received and I believe will continue to see significant resistance politically,

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Speaker 1: uh and by both parties, which is another interesting realignment

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Speaker 1: that we're seeing, certainly by by all three candidates that

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Speaker 1: are personally running. Well, go ahead place Well, I was

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Speaker 1: gonna ask the the issue seems to be you can

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Speaker 1: make an economic case for for the macro economy for

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Speaker 1: t PP, but it's very hard to make a case

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Speaker 1: to the working man who feels his job is in

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Speaker 1: danger because of trade. How would you adjust trade deals

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Speaker 1: to account for that, to to put a floor under

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Speaker 1: the problems for the worker. Well, that's a very good question,

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Speaker 1: and that really is the question is how do we

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Speaker 1: move forward with trade deals in the future, Because certainly,

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Speaker 1: I mean everyone makes the point that of humanity lives

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Speaker 1: outside of the borders of this country, about se economy,

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Speaker 1: the world's economies outside, so clearly trade needs to continue

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Speaker 1: even without any additional trade agreements. Obviously would there's a

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Speaker 1: tremendous amount of international trade, but the way it has

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Speaker 1: worked out is that it has in my view, created

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Speaker 1: some real tensions and inequalities. And as you point out,

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Speaker 1: the issue I think is what you do about those

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Speaker 1: who have not been benefited by globalization before? That is

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Speaker 1: really the question. And here I think that the data

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Speaker 1: is pretty clear on it, both um academic data is

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Speaker 1: a very widely reported um insided source and politically so

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Speaker 1: certainly there needs to be uh a lot more tension

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Speaker 1: paid to manufacturing. Let's come back on, Dana. Let's come

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Speaker 1: back and continue this discussion. Dana Marshall, where the SEA

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Speaker 1: worked with Bush SR and Clinton on trade dynamics and

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Speaker 1: as an important voice to consider on America and Trade

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Surveillance. We are cutting down to the opening bill

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Speaker 1: brought you by the Jep Grand Cherokee and the most

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Speaker 1: what did this ev Ever, the Grand Cherokee continues to

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Speaker 1: raise the bar with its luxurious interior legendary four by

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Speaker 1: four capability to try on at your local jeep dealer.

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Speaker 1: Today broadcasting live to New York Coolberg eleventh, Willo to Washington,

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Speaker 1: d C Roomberg ninety nine one to Boston Bloomberg Till

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Speaker 1: Honers to San Francisco Broomberg nine six, to the country

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Speaker 1: Supies Exam Channel one nineteen and around the globe the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Radio plus Appen Bloomberg dot Com. This is Roomwork Surveillance.

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Speaker 1: Good morning. I'm Kerra in Moscow, Allow with Tom Keene

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Speaker 1: and Michael McKee and the opening val brought to you

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Speaker 1: by se I Imagine assets servicing and constrained by infrastructure

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Speaker 1: or investment operations that predictively respond to change. SEI is

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Speaker 1: creating the future state got se I c dot com

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Speaker 1: slash Imagine stocks are a little change to hire at

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Speaker 1: the open sn P five hundred up about a tenth

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Speaker 1: of upper center one point to twenty one hundred Dow

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Speaker 1: Jones Industrial average up a tenth of upper center eighteen

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Speaker 1: points to seventeen thousand, eight hundred ninety two. And then

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Speaker 1: as to acts, up a tenth of upper center six

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Speaker 1: points to forty nine thirty nine ten. Your treasury down

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Speaker 1: ten thirty seconds the old point eight eight percent yield

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Speaker 1: on the two year point on three percent. Now am

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Speaker 1: Ex scrude oil up half per cent or twenty four

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Speaker 1: cents to fifties seven of barrel, Comac school down two

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Speaker 1: tens per cent or two dollars fifty cents to twelve ounce.

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Speaker 1: The euro a dollar eleven sixty one, the en one

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Speaker 1: eleven point to zero. Tom and Mike Karen, thanks so much,

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Speaker 1: Dana Marshall with us working with George H. W. Bush

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Speaker 1: and President Clinton is well, Mike, why don't you pick

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Speaker 1: it up on T P P and on what we

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Speaker 1: were talking about earlier? We were talking about I mean,

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Speaker 1: obviously you can't under the rules Congress can't amend the bill,

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Speaker 1: so it will stand or fall on its own, uh,

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Speaker 1: this trade deal. But you were telling us how before

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Speaker 1: we had to go to break, how you would fix

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Speaker 1: future trade deals. Right. Well, the yeah, I think that

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Speaker 1: if you look at why it is that these trade

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Speaker 1: deals have elicited the kind of resistance that we've seen,

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Speaker 1: even in three sort of frankly inconsequential deals like very

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Speaker 1: small ones would negotiated a few decades ago with small

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Speaker 1: countries in the Persian Gulf, maybe for political reasons. A

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Speaker 1: lot of it has to do with the effect on workers,

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Speaker 1: and then in the manufacturing sector. And let's face if

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Speaker 1: you look at the manufacturing numbers right now, either output

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Speaker 1: or employment, it's flat. In fact, it looks like even

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Speaker 1: trending down a bit in with some charts that I've seen.

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Speaker 1: So that has to be the big focus. So what

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Speaker 1: do you do about either perhaps trying to amend TPP

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Speaker 1: to try to make it something that either candidate would

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Speaker 1: accept or for a future deal. I think you need

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Speaker 1: to look at the impacts on manufacturing, and there are

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Speaker 1: a number of areas. I think maybe two or three

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Speaker 1: baskets I would highlight. Certainly one of them is UH

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Speaker 1: in terms of currency misalignment or manipulations, is something that

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Speaker 1: there's been a lot of discussion about, a lot of analysis,

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Speaker 1: and it's a very very big factor UH that needs

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Speaker 1: to be looked at. There's a school of thought, and

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Speaker 1: I think I would subscribe to it that that the

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Speaker 1: currency manipulation issue was not sufficiently dealt with UH in

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Speaker 1: the TPP negotiations. There's a lot of reasons for that.

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Speaker 1: You get into it UH rules of origin, which is

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Speaker 1: a kind of a very esoteric sounding thing, but it's

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Speaker 1: very important in trade agreement. It basically means what what

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Speaker 1: amount of components of a trading partner is the minimum

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Speaker 1: that you need in a product in order to for

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Speaker 1: it to benefit from a trade agreement. There's was a

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Speaker 1: lot of controversy about rules of origin, which we're seen

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Speaker 1: as potentially threatening US manufacturing by being too low that

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Speaker 1: it would permit effectively let's say Chinese products China of

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Speaker 1: course not being a TPP member a country to flow

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Speaker 1: say into Japan and being incorporated into a Japanese car

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Speaker 1: that is sent UH with a gradually declining duty into

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Speaker 1: the United States. That was the problem UH. The treatment

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Speaker 1: of state enterprises, which which are important in a number

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Speaker 1: of the t t member countries, are also in areas

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Speaker 1: that needs to be looked at more data. The minutia

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Speaker 1: of this is important. With your experience with President Bush

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Speaker 1: Senior and with President Clinton. What's different about our caution

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Speaker 1: and how suspect we are about this agreement versus the

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Speaker 1: previous eight agreements you are directly involved with. Well, again,

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Speaker 1: an interesting question if you look back, for example, and

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Speaker 1: when NAFTA was being negotiated and when it finally passed

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Speaker 1: in the mid nineties, at that time, the United States

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Speaker 1: actually had a small trade surplus with Mexico. That surplus

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Speaker 1: is now loaded into a huge something like llion dollar deficit.

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Speaker 1: I think that that is an important factor. And I

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Speaker 1: think also history has shown where we've seen mounching trade

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Speaker 1: deficits which are serious need to be looked at, which

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Speaker 1: do impact uh US economy. I think that these are

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Speaker 1: it's the history that we've seen with these negotiations that

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Speaker 1: has um I think changed. Um. You know, I'm a,

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Speaker 1: as you mentioned, former State Department person, so I'm very

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Speaker 1: used to using trying to use economic tools to achieve

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Speaker 1: US foreign policy ends. That's very legitimate. It needs to continue.

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Speaker 1: I think the challenge for the next administration will be

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Speaker 1: which of those economic tools can be used and which

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Speaker 1: that would be effective and advanced foreign policy. In first,

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Speaker 1: just just one example on copyright, will the value of

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Speaker 1: our creative content be improved with TPP. Well, that is

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Speaker 1: what that is one of the main reasons um for

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Speaker 1: the administration pursuing it. If you look at the other

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Speaker 1: side of the ledger, on the intellectual property right side, UH,

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Speaker 1: copyright protection, digital trade, avoiding, localization, these are seen as

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Speaker 1: breakthrough areas for the TPP document, but it's very difficult

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Speaker 1: to quantify. Just a week or two ago, the International

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Speaker 1: Trade Commission is required by law to do an economic

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Speaker 1: evaluation of trade agreements. The i t C put out

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Speaker 1: it's analysis of TPT and it showed, frankly, a very

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Speaker 1: poor performance in manufacturing. You know, why would you want

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Speaker 1: to negotiating ass in agreement that was not going to

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Speaker 1: be positive in manufacturing. On the other side of the ledger, though,

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Speaker 1: it did say that it that many of the individuals

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Speaker 1: and companies have talked to UH extolled virtues of this

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Speaker 1: on the i P side, but without quantification. Well then, uh, well,

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Speaker 1: let's ask this when you look at you you talked

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Speaker 1: about the trade deficit with Mexico. What should be our

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Speaker 1: foreign policy, foreign economic policy, what should we want from

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Speaker 1: other countries? Well, that's that's also a very complicated question.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you look if you look at the

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Speaker 1: subject as from a business perspective, Let's see, you're running

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Speaker 1: a transnational business. What you're trying to do, of course

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Speaker 1: is to put production UH and trade and consumption into

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Speaker 1: UH the places in the world, which is going to

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Speaker 1: maximize your return on investment and shareholder value. But that

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Speaker 1: is not necessarily the same goal as UM A government has. UH.

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Speaker 1: National economic goals are not necessarily the same as the

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Speaker 1: goals of transnational enterprises. It seems to me that that

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Speaker 1: the next president to whoever he or she might be,

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Speaker 1: is going to be elected with by an electorate that's

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Speaker 1: very concerned about these things and it's looking for change.

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Speaker 1: Of course, like any election, electorate's not expert. They're looking

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Speaker 1: for the experts the administration change it. I think certainly

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Speaker 1: there needs to be some changes in manufacturing policy and

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Speaker 1: on trade. And I would also say, just at the

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Speaker 1: last point that it's not only the international side. There's

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Speaker 1: also domestic steps that can be taken, for example, an

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Speaker 1: infrastructure bank. Right, We're gonna have to leave it there.

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Speaker 1: Dana Marshall, thank you so much. Transnational Strategy Group, what

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Speaker 1: that was a joy to get the same discussion on

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Speaker 1: TPP where Mike I find there's oftentimes um a lot

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Speaker 1: of heat and certitude unless analysis. Uh Mike, look at

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Speaker 1: that headline. Yeah, that's a big number. Billion dollars, Saudi

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Speaker 1: Arabia said to Wade bond sale, this is course off cutter.

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Speaker 1: I believe it was nine billion off the top of

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Speaker 1: my head. Don't have it and from me fifteen billion

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Speaker 1: dollars as UM fifty oil in the chronic nature of

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Speaker 1: oil here Brent crude down fourteen since I note gold

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Speaker 1: down four dollars as well twelve Saudi Arabia to Wade

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Speaker 1: bond sale of fifteen billion. Time not to check in

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Speaker 1: with Michael Barr and get the latest world of national headlines. Mike, Tom,

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Speaker 1: thank you very much. Just two years ago, the Braunsils

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Speaker 1: River in southeast Texas had run dry in places because

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Speaker 1: of drought. Today, communities along the Bronzils are dealing with

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Speaker 1: flooding that has killed at least six people. The National

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Speaker 1: Weather Service says the river will likely crest at record

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Speaker 1: levels by mid day today. In Fort Bend County, the

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Speaker 1: suspected Taliban gunmen shot and killed at least sixteen people today.

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Speaker 1: In Afghanistan, it is the deadliest single attack the group

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Speaker 1: has made since naming a new leader last week. A

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Speaker 1: spokesman for the northern province of Kundus says insurgents dressed

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Speaker 1: in military uniform stopped convoy of buses. Initially, about two

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Speaker 1: hundred hostages were taken, more than a hundred fifty freed,

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Speaker 1: and more than thirty are still being held by the Taliban.

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Speaker 1: About forty thousand striking Verizon employees say they are returning

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Speaker 1: to work tomorrow after reaching a tentative contract agreement. The

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Speaker 1: company and unions say the deal reached Friday includes about

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Speaker 1: new call center jobs and nearly eleven percent in raises

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Speaker 1: over four years. Global News twenty four hours a day,

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Speaker 1: powered by our four hundred journalists and more than a

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Speaker 1: hundred fifty news bureaus around the world now. Michael Barr, Tom,

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Speaker 1: Michael bar thanks so much for look at ecuties bonds.

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Speaker 1: Currencies come out is a yen weaker one eleven twenty three,

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Speaker 1: some persistent weakness in the end. We see the same

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Speaker 1: thing with red membies six point five eight you won

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Speaker 1: per dollar. I also know Brazilian real three point five

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Speaker 1: nine weaker over the last few days. Michael McKee and

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane Bloomberg Surveillance. Bloomberg Surveillance is brought to you

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