1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:12,879 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg 2 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join 3 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:21,000 Speaker 1: us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, 4 00:00:21,200 --> 00:00:24,840 Speaker 1: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 5 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:29,400 Speaker 1: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 6 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 1: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 7 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:36,960 Speaker 1: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 8 00:00:37,000 --> 00:00:40,360 Speaker 1: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you 9 00:00:40,440 --> 00:00:44,600 Speaker 1: listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and 10 00:00:44,640 --> 00:00:48,200 Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Ed Heiman joins us, not Chairman 11 00:00:48,280 --> 00:00:52,000 Speaker 1: Evercore Isi, and of course out with a must read note. 12 00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,960 Speaker 1: And it's almost comfort to me ed Heimen to see 13 00:00:56,240 --> 00:01:00,279 Speaker 1: your note and just observe the you know, the basic idea. 14 00:01:01,240 --> 00:01:06,679 Speaker 1: You start, like Alan Greenspan, with trucking. Explain why at 15 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:10,640 Speaker 1: ever Core ISI, where everybody hangs on every chart in 16 00:01:10,720 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: every paragraph, why does edheymen start with the trucking. 17 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 2: Survey Because it's the most important thing to start with. 18 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:29,880 Speaker 2: So we survey about forty different industries and you might 19 00:01:29,880 --> 00:01:34,720 Speaker 2: ask yourself which one correlates with the economy most and 20 00:01:34,760 --> 00:01:43,840 Speaker 2: the answer is trucking. The survey's overall trucking, retail, autos, 21 00:01:43,880 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 2: et cetera overall beat trucking by itself. But trucking has 22 00:01:49,960 --> 00:01:55,480 Speaker 2: the motion and so and that survey also has hooked down. 23 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,720 Speaker 2: I'm looking for message signal. 24 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:03,160 Speaker 1: Well, can you signal now the certitude of a recession 25 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: or the one of n B E R recession? 26 00:02:06,800 --> 00:02:10,600 Speaker 2: No, yeah, I've been I've been on the recession kick 27 00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:13,440 Speaker 2: too long. So I'm trying to. 28 00:02:14,400 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 3: Wean yourself, right, not wean myself of it. 29 00:02:17,360 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 2: I'm just trying to you know, my job is to 30 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:25,400 Speaker 2: help our clients, and this has not been helpful. Now 31 00:02:25,560 --> 00:02:31,920 Speaker 2: at this point, the logic that monetary tightening Milton Freeman 32 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:36,160 Speaker 2: would make inflation go away has worked. And the you'll 33 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 2: curve being inverted should slow the economy, and we're getting 34 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,800 Speaker 2: some evidence to slow down, and so I should relax 35 00:02:45,840 --> 00:02:46,400 Speaker 2: a little bit. 36 00:02:47,400 --> 00:02:49,960 Speaker 4: So what do you think if you're we're gonna hear 37 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:52,239 Speaker 4: from the Fed in a couple of weeks, we're gonna 38 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:56,240 Speaker 4: get some economic data today with jobs and tomorrow with 39 00:02:56,240 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 4: the labor report. What do you how do you think 40 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,640 Speaker 4: the US economy is performing these days? 41 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 2: It's okay, a little spotty. Okay, some places are just booming, 42 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:12,040 Speaker 2: not doing well, not holding up, not resilient. When some 43 00:03:12,120 --> 00:03:15,600 Speaker 2: places are softer, like our trucking survey's got a little 44 00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:17,480 Speaker 2: bit weaker, and construction is a little bit weaker in 45 00:03:17,480 --> 00:03:21,440 Speaker 2: some retail, particularly when you get into the lower income categories, 46 00:03:21,480 --> 00:03:22,359 Speaker 2: are a little bit softer. 47 00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 3: And the employment data, which is the key. 48 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, everybody knows that, but it's it's showing some size 49 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:29,960 Speaker 2: of softer. 50 00:03:30,240 --> 00:03:32,480 Speaker 1: We saw that with ADP. Folks in the markets move 51 00:03:32,480 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: on it. Futures are flat now future futures negative thirteen, 52 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:39,640 Speaker 1: nastiaic down six tens of a percent. The vix was 53 00:03:39,640 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 1: a twenty level, goes out to twenty one point two 54 00:03:42,200 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: to two. The Sweeney yield three point seven two percent 55 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:48,520 Speaker 1: in three basis points, and the two year yield a 56 00:03:48,560 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: little bit of disinversion. You're a positive two ten spread. 57 00:03:52,400 --> 00:03:55,240 Speaker 1: I haven't said that since the red sox last one. 58 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 1: The real yield one point sixty seven percent. Paul, pick 59 00:03:58,600 --> 00:03:59,720 Speaker 1: it up and talk about this. 60 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 4: We're going to have the FED presumably cutting rates and 61 00:04:02,440 --> 00:04:05,600 Speaker 4: maybe substantially starting in September. What does that mean for 62 00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:08,440 Speaker 4: the US homeowner I mean, the mortgage rates have been high, 63 00:04:08,520 --> 00:04:11,560 Speaker 4: but not and it comes to the point where nobody 64 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:12,920 Speaker 4: wants to sell their home because they don't want to 65 00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:13,160 Speaker 4: go to. 66 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:15,440 Speaker 3: A new home with a higher mortgage sage trade. 67 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:17,640 Speaker 4: How do you think that housing market's going to react 68 00:04:17,680 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 4: to what should be the declining industrate environment. 69 00:04:20,480 --> 00:04:21,039 Speaker 3: It'll be good. 70 00:04:21,600 --> 00:04:24,719 Speaker 2: You know, housing has had a real problem with lack 71 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,279 Speaker 2: of supply, and I find that everywhere. 72 00:04:28,400 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: Yep. 73 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:33,560 Speaker 2: And we do a survey of home builders, of course 74 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:38,080 Speaker 2: you do. And that picked up quite a bit, about 75 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:41,160 Speaker 2: six or seven points on a zero to one hundred 76 00:04:41,640 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 2: when mortgage rates came down, and then this week it 77 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 2: dropped two points. 78 00:04:46,880 --> 00:04:48,719 Speaker 3: Okay, I don't know if it's noise. 79 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 2: Lumber came down. So I'm trying to connect the dots 80 00:04:53,520 --> 00:04:56,440 Speaker 2: like it might be a little bit of signal, but 81 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:00,560 Speaker 2: I don't get the feeling that, you know, twenty five 82 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 2: fifty twenty five hundred basis point drop in mortgage rates. 83 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:06,880 Speaker 2: I'm sorry, and the funds rate is going to do 84 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 2: a lot. 85 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, you've got a nod at acquaintance with Boden University. 86 00:05:10,839 --> 00:05:13,640 Speaker 1: I should said Boden College up in Maine. But the 87 00:05:13,720 --> 00:05:17,599 Speaker 1: real heritage just University of Texas. You have an inherent 88 00:05:17,760 --> 00:05:22,760 Speaker 1: prism into the boom economy of Texas, of Arizona and 89 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,680 Speaker 1: the rest. Where do you see that five years from now? 90 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:30,919 Speaker 1: Where do we just continue to see this migration from California, 91 00:05:31,000 --> 00:05:32,719 Speaker 1: from New York, from Illinois and the rest. 92 00:05:32,880 --> 00:05:39,520 Speaker 2: Probably probably you know, the tax situation is better. There's 93 00:05:39,560 --> 00:05:44,200 Speaker 2: also a movement, particularly of young people like the University 94 00:05:44,200 --> 00:05:48,919 Speaker 2: of Texas, to get away from a woke environment in 95 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:53,120 Speaker 2: the northeast. Frankly and so, and that's probably going to 96 00:05:53,240 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 2: keep going on. 97 00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:56,160 Speaker 1: You've kept politics out of your newsletter. I would say, 98 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:59,440 Speaker 1: yes anyone else. You've been really really good about it. 99 00:05:59,600 --> 00:06:01,360 Speaker 1: So I'm gonna quiz you, now. 100 00:06:01,839 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 3: How you teck it out? 101 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:05,680 Speaker 1: Don't work? Lisa, hold on him, he's not walking out 102 00:06:05,680 --> 00:06:10,520 Speaker 1: of his studio, Edheimen, how do you dance around this 103 00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:15,320 Speaker 1: unique presidential election to give advice within your newsletter to 104 00:06:15,320 --> 00:06:16,440 Speaker 1: your clients worldwide? 105 00:06:17,440 --> 00:06:21,840 Speaker 3: So it's it's a dance. And Evercore. 106 00:06:23,640 --> 00:06:28,839 Speaker 2: Has its roots in the very democratic group of people 107 00:06:28,880 --> 00:06:34,320 Speaker 2: as founders with Roger Rogerlman and Ralph Flushdain and they're terrific, 108 00:06:35,880 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 2: and so I have to be a little careful. He 109 00:06:37,560 --> 00:06:39,240 Speaker 2: as a Republican, you're not. 110 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:42,000 Speaker 3: It's it's their. 111 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,159 Speaker 2: Firm, and I don't want to. 112 00:06:44,040 --> 00:06:45,120 Speaker 3: Get in the way. 113 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:50,520 Speaker 2: But as we all know, it's fifty to fifty and 114 00:06:51,520 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 2: so it's too early to try and figure out what 115 00:06:55,160 --> 00:06:59,680 Speaker 2: the economic implications. You know, Trump is giving a talk 116 00:07:01,279 --> 00:07:04,600 Speaker 2: today here in New York at the Economic Club. 117 00:07:05,400 --> 00:07:08,000 Speaker 3: And we'll pick a little bit up. I'm sure you'll 118 00:07:08,000 --> 00:07:10,440 Speaker 3: be there, but yeah, traffic, that's all I know. 119 00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:15,240 Speaker 1: And just we want to come back and continue this 120 00:07:15,320 --> 00:07:17,960 Speaker 1: discussion with that. Hymen. Are you a buller of bear 121 00:07:18,080 --> 00:07:21,280 Speaker 1: right now? Can you add cash to a belief in 122 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 1: stocks right now? Uh? 123 00:07:25,440 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 2: My technical analyst Rich Ross, who's been very good, he 124 00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:35,080 Speaker 2: was very bearish. Now he says he's balanced. I don't 125 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:40,040 Speaker 2: know what balance it means. Uh So, I'm not particularly 126 00:07:40,200 --> 00:07:44,200 Speaker 2: bullish or particularly bearish. I own a lot of stocks 127 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 2: on a lot of real estate. I'm nervous because things 128 00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:54,600 Speaker 2: seem like they're too high, too expensive. It's not a 129 00:07:54,600 --> 00:07:56,200 Speaker 2: good answer for you, Tom. 130 00:07:56,280 --> 00:07:58,400 Speaker 1: That's okay, we'll keep your on Anyways. I love doing 131 00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:00,640 Speaker 1: this with that, Hymen. Everybody thinks he's like on the 132 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,520 Speaker 1: phone with Jay. No, he's looking at you know, he's 133 00:08:03,560 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: in here literally looking and claims as we start unit 134 00:08:06,800 --> 00:08:10,360 Speaker 1: labor costs came in a little bit lighter. What do 135 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:16,000 Speaker 1: you say about wage growth moderating nominal GDP comes down, 136 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:19,360 Speaker 1: and then what do you say about the real wage? 137 00:08:19,400 --> 00:08:21,280 Speaker 1: Are we going to get a negative real wage? 138 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:26,480 Speaker 2: The ways look like they're really slowing, and inflation looks 139 00:08:26,520 --> 00:08:32,200 Speaker 2: like it's really slowing, and proctivity has been really good. 140 00:08:32,679 --> 00:08:34,760 Speaker 2: And I assume have got revised up a little bit 141 00:08:37,559 --> 00:08:39,160 Speaker 2: because the GDP was revised up. 142 00:08:39,240 --> 00:08:39,400 Speaker 5: Yep. 143 00:08:39,520 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 1: I don't know the revisions yet. 144 00:08:42,360 --> 00:08:42,920 Speaker 3: It should be out. 145 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: They'll be on a couple of minutes. You see how 146 00:08:46,240 --> 00:08:47,040 Speaker 1: he's killing. 147 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:54,120 Speaker 2: Me, and so it'll ever cost before the numbers was 148 00:08:54,240 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 2: zero point five year and year, just an increase of 149 00:08:57,480 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 2: zero point five and so inflation could be down to 150 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 2: two percent without any trouble. And by some measures it 151 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:09,720 Speaker 2: already is down to two percent. So that that ship 152 00:09:09,800 --> 00:09:10,240 Speaker 2: is sailed. 153 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,080 Speaker 4: So it's it FED late in cutting rates? Ed do 154 00:09:14,120 --> 00:09:15,679 Speaker 4: you think or because a lot of folks out there 155 00:09:15,720 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 4: saying the FED should have been cutting rates for months. 156 00:09:18,080 --> 00:09:22,040 Speaker 2: Now, they're smarter than I am. 157 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:23,920 Speaker 1: Arely too smart. 158 00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:25,160 Speaker 3: Could be too smart? 159 00:09:26,040 --> 00:09:27,960 Speaker 2: I think the FED has been doing a pretty good 160 00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:34,200 Speaker 2: job and I'm generally critical of the FED, but either 161 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:40,800 Speaker 2: by luck or by skill, they have the path set 162 00:09:40,880 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 2: now for cutting rates. And we've got claimed this morning. 163 00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 2: So it makes me have a headache. And so they're 164 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:55,880 Speaker 2: you know, they got different mandates, so I don't necessarily 165 00:09:55,920 --> 00:09:58,640 Speaker 2: think they should have We'll know better to answer to 166 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:02,760 Speaker 2: that question. I do think that they were way off 167 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:08,520 Speaker 2: on raising rates. You know, the transitory story I thought 168 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 2: was right. 169 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,600 Speaker 1: Is it harder now ed Heiman to do the craft? 170 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,560 Speaker 1: You stand, He's got a little tall table. He stands 171 00:10:17,640 --> 00:10:20,320 Speaker 1: out with a black one of those markers that if 172 00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:24,800 Speaker 1: you get on your shirt, And is it harder to 173 00:10:24,920 --> 00:10:27,840 Speaker 1: do it now? Because of the mystery of technology, the 174 00:10:27,840 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: mystery of productivity, the polarization of the labor force in America, 175 00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: the haves and the have nots. Is it harder to 176 00:10:35,440 --> 00:10:35,840 Speaker 1: do now? 177 00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:37,280 Speaker 3: I don't think so. 178 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 2: It's always been very hard to do I agree with that. 179 00:10:41,360 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 2: I'm not I'm not thinking it's any harder to do 180 00:10:46,760 --> 00:10:50,080 Speaker 2: that it has been in the past. It's just been always, 181 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:54,920 Speaker 2: you know, very very difficult in some ways. The hardest 182 00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:59,080 Speaker 2: time was in the nineteen seventies, you know, when you 183 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 2: had the embargo. He had wage price controls, he had 184 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:10,600 Speaker 2: inflation going nuts, he had Nixon resigning. 185 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 3: I mean it was pretty What are your clients? 186 00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:17,600 Speaker 4: What are your clients asking you these days? That's maybe unique, 187 00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:19,640 Speaker 4: or just what do they really want from you these days? 188 00:11:21,800 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 2: I think they want a steady hand, a unbiased analysis 189 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:33,080 Speaker 2: of what's going on, and so I try first to 190 00:11:33,160 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 2: do that. 191 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:39,040 Speaker 3: You have the data on the ADP came out. 192 00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:44,239 Speaker 2: It has is zero calories, It doesn't have any information whatsoever. 193 00:11:44,320 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 3: It still moves to the market, and we still look 194 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 3: at it. 195 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:51,640 Speaker 2: Claims, on the other hand, you know, are very important. 196 00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:54,040 Speaker 1: I want to go to the Economic Club of New 197 00:11:54,120 --> 00:11:57,320 Speaker 1: York and the heritage your Paul, and to paint the picture. 198 00:11:57,360 --> 00:12:00,760 Speaker 1: Folks in the old days, you're in a huge ballroom 199 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:04,040 Speaker 1: in New York with the elite meat degree and the 200 00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:06,760 Speaker 1: fancy people are up on stage trying not to eat 201 00:12:07,320 --> 00:12:09,600 Speaker 1: until the speech is done. That's a tradition, and you're 202 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:11,880 Speaker 1: starving and you're looking at your food, going when do 203 00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,840 Speaker 1: I eat? And off to the wings, the left wing 204 00:12:14,880 --> 00:12:17,240 Speaker 1: and the right wing looking out at the people the 205 00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:22,800 Speaker 1: audience are too worthies, and the intrepidation the speaker knows 206 00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: they're going to ask questions and often, and to the 207 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,280 Speaker 1: great joy at the Economic Club of New York, Ed 208 00:12:29,400 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: Hyman is one of those worthies you Martin Feldstein and 209 00:12:32,960 --> 00:12:36,920 Speaker 1: others would ask really tough questions. You do that today 210 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:41,240 Speaker 1: with former President Trump? What is your question today at 211 00:12:41,240 --> 00:12:42,800 Speaker 1: twelve noon to Donald Trump? 212 00:12:45,280 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 3: What are you going to do with taxes? It'd be 213 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 3: the main thing I would want to know. 214 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:56,199 Speaker 1: Explain that the distinction of the Harris tax policy is 215 00:12:56,400 --> 00:13:02,480 Speaker 1: the first a trial ballooned versus Trump's too early. 216 00:13:02,760 --> 00:13:04,360 Speaker 3: It's too early, you know. 217 00:13:04,920 --> 00:13:07,400 Speaker 2: In the news right now there's a debate they say 218 00:13:07,440 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 2: that Trump wants to take the capital gains tax rate 219 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:12,480 Speaker 2: up to thirty nine percent. Maybe is Biden wants to 220 00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:16,760 Speaker 2: take it up and Harris wants to keep it something 221 00:13:16,800 --> 00:13:20,719 Speaker 2: more like twenty eight percent. But you know, as a conservative, 222 00:13:20,720 --> 00:13:22,880 Speaker 2: I would rather keep it, you know, twenty one or 223 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 2: twenty two percent. 224 00:13:24,200 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: Explain how the taxation of unrealized gains. Paul Sweeney bought 225 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:34,200 Speaker 1: Nvidia early. He's got a big unrealized gain and he's 226 00:13:34,200 --> 00:13:39,080 Speaker 1: not selling that puppy. And select individuals, including the Senator 227 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:43,480 Speaker 1: from Massachusetts, wants to text those unrealized gains. How does 228 00:13:43,520 --> 00:13:46,040 Speaker 1: that harm not wealthy people. 229 00:13:47,320 --> 00:13:48,640 Speaker 3: Well, I think it harms everybody. 230 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:54,640 Speaker 2: Why because it hurts the whole capitalistic system. And so 231 00:13:54,760 --> 00:13:57,680 Speaker 2: I mean that's one of the things that I would 232 00:13:57,720 --> 00:14:02,800 Speaker 2: find the most discouraging. It also is impossible to administer, 233 00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:07,560 Speaker 2: so I don't think that's gonna make it, but it 234 00:14:07,600 --> 00:14:10,120 Speaker 2: definitely is low on life. 235 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,199 Speaker 3: So broadly listening things that would be good, broadly defined. 236 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,400 Speaker 4: Where would you like to see the US tax system 237 00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:19,440 Speaker 4: go over the next several years, because obviously, as you 238 00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:23,360 Speaker 4: will well know, there's many different polar different thoughts on that. 239 00:14:23,400 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 3: Where do you think it should go? 240 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 2: I'm happy with it right right now. I think we're 241 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:32,760 Speaker 2: paying enough taxes and so I'm not interested in, you know, 242 00:14:32,800 --> 00:14:34,480 Speaker 2: seeing taxes go up. 243 00:14:34,680 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 3: And I don't I don't get this sense that the. 244 00:14:38,520 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 2: Harris Democratic Group really are pushing for higher taxes either. 245 00:14:43,400 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 3: There's some parts are, but I don't know. 246 00:14:46,920 --> 00:14:49,040 Speaker 4: How about the How about I would love to get 247 00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:52,920 Speaker 4: your perspective on the debt and deficits. I've been hearing 248 00:14:52,920 --> 00:14:54,080 Speaker 4: about it my entire life. 249 00:14:54,360 --> 00:14:56,240 Speaker 3: Wait, you have to worry about it, Yeah, you too. 250 00:14:56,280 --> 00:14:58,920 Speaker 1: But you were directly involved with this with Pete Peterson, 251 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:03,040 Speaker 1: Paul Songa, Sam any others. I mean someone say they've 252 00:15:03,040 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: been crying, Well for years, we're still here. But are 253 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:09,360 Speaker 1: we at a tip point now that those people talked 254 00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:09,680 Speaker 1: about it? 255 00:15:10,400 --> 00:15:13,760 Speaker 2: So I don't think so, but I think about it 256 00:15:13,800 --> 00:15:17,920 Speaker 2: all the time. I had a deep conversation yesterday with 257 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 2: Lee Cooperman, who was extremely upset about it, and I said, Lee, 258 00:15:25,120 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 2: bonniels are so low and the dollar is so strong. 259 00:15:31,000 --> 00:15:33,720 Speaker 2: Those are the two things that would make you say 260 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:37,120 Speaker 2: this is now, and it's not. 261 00:15:37,600 --> 00:15:40,040 Speaker 1: Take your work into John Gallop's work at Evercore. We've 262 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:43,880 Speaker 1: got to go here at Hymen, but fold your economics 263 00:15:43,920 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: into the Evercore ISI equity call. 264 00:15:49,640 --> 00:15:55,120 Speaker 2: So we've been on the equity call. We've been pretty 265 00:15:55,120 --> 00:16:02,160 Speaker 2: bearish on the stock market, and so that's where I 266 00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 2: am right now. Frankly, we have a strategist and a 267 00:16:06,200 --> 00:16:07,960 Speaker 2: technician that have different views. 268 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:10,800 Speaker 1: Well that's good, it's a classic. It's at tim in view. 269 00:16:11,000 --> 00:16:16,360 Speaker 2: Well, no, but I'm just saying I listened to them. 270 00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:20,800 Speaker 2: So right now, the economy's fine, earnings are good, inflation's 271 00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:25,080 Speaker 2: coming down, Fed's going to cut right, and it's okay. Ed. 272 00:16:25,160 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: I mean, thank you so much for being with us today. 273 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:28,680 Speaker 3: Here, end of the job. 274 00:16:28,960 --> 00:16:32,560 Speaker 1: To see Nice to see you. As well him with 275 00:16:32,640 --> 00:16:36,960 Speaker 1: Evercore is SI dancing around the politics of the moment. 276 00:16:37,000 --> 00:16:40,200 Speaker 1: We'll speak to mister Hyman here sure of the autumn 277 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:55,560 Speaker 1: as we can. First day of school very emotional. I've 278 00:16:55,560 --> 00:16:57,400 Speaker 1: been doing it a long time. I mean, you know 279 00:16:57,680 --> 00:17:00,120 Speaker 1: it was it was five or six years ago that 280 00:17:00,160 --> 00:17:03,000 Speaker 1: I took the oldest cash flow first day of school 281 00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:05,440 Speaker 1: that was down on the edge of you know, Cape 282 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:07,520 Speaker 1: Cod of the Born Bridge. And you know today it 283 00:17:08,760 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 1: was emotional for Wendy Schiller at Brown. It's emotional because 284 00:17:12,119 --> 00:17:14,080 Speaker 1: she's got to stand up at the Tombin Center with 285 00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:18,200 Speaker 1: all the idiot freshmen and she has to sing ever 286 00:17:18,400 --> 00:17:21,920 Speaker 1: true to Brown, We are ever true to Brown, for 287 00:17:22,119 --> 00:17:25,640 Speaker 1: we love our college dear, and wherever we may go, 288 00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:29,879 Speaker 1: we are ready with a beer. The people always say 289 00:17:30,200 --> 00:17:33,480 Speaker 1: that you can't get out drink the band with a 290 00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:36,359 Speaker 1: Scotch and rye and a whiskey dry and a b oh. 291 00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 1: You are a b oh and Professor Schiller, thank you 292 00:17:40,000 --> 00:17:43,640 Speaker 1: for joining us at the orientation at Brow. What would 293 00:17:43,640 --> 00:17:46,479 Speaker 1: you tell the freshman right now, Wendy Schiller about this 294 00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:49,159 Speaker 1: debate September tenth in Philadelphia. 295 00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,320 Speaker 6: Well, I think it's the last key turing point for 296 00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:54,639 Speaker 6: the election. I mean, I really do think this is 297 00:17:54,680 --> 00:17:55,439 Speaker 6: a chance for. 298 00:17:57,040 --> 00:17:59,720 Speaker 1: This is this is too important? You're saying it's that 299 00:17:59,840 --> 00:18:01,360 Speaker 1: much such of a tip point. 300 00:18:02,040 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 6: I do because it's the last I think it's the 301 00:18:04,160 --> 00:18:09,480 Speaker 6: last time unified America. Theoretically, I know we're divided, but 302 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:11,640 Speaker 6: it's the last time that a lot of eyeballs will 303 00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 6: be on both candidates at the same time unfiltered. So 304 00:18:14,960 --> 00:18:18,160 Speaker 6: since that is the last time, people who love Trump 305 00:18:18,560 --> 00:18:21,760 Speaker 6: like Harris, love Harris, hate Trump paid Harris, but they'll 306 00:18:21,800 --> 00:18:25,399 Speaker 6: watch the debate. It's entertainment now, and we know that 307 00:18:25,480 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 6: the last debate was very pivotal for this race, pushing 308 00:18:29,320 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 6: Biden out. 309 00:18:30,119 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 7: So this is the last. 310 00:18:31,080 --> 00:18:33,920 Speaker 6: Time everybody will watch at the same time with him 311 00:18:34,040 --> 00:18:35,880 Speaker 6: face to face, rather than each of them. 312 00:18:35,800 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 7: Lobbying charges against each other on campaign trail. 313 00:18:38,760 --> 00:18:41,639 Speaker 4: What do you think is would be a win for 314 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,680 Speaker 4: Vice President Harris in this debate. It seems like everybody 315 00:18:45,920 --> 00:18:49,200 Speaker 4: knows what former President Trump is all about, but less 316 00:18:49,200 --> 00:18:50,679 Speaker 4: so for Vice President Biden. 317 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:54,920 Speaker 6: For Paula wins. Paula winn for her just to knock 318 00:18:55,000 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 6: him off his game. I mean, he was on his 319 00:18:57,119 --> 00:18:58,040 Speaker 6: game against Biden. 320 00:18:58,320 --> 00:18:59,440 Speaker 7: He was on message. 321 00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:01,800 Speaker 6: He didn't except the very end, maybe go off the 322 00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:04,199 Speaker 6: rails a little bit, but generally speaking, he was on 323 00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 6: his game, He was disciplined. It was a message on 324 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,159 Speaker 6: inflation in the border. She seems to have injected a 325 00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 6: different scenario, a different set of issues into the race. 326 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 7: Inflation matters. 327 00:19:13,080 --> 00:19:15,120 Speaker 6: But now we hear signs that, you know, maybe it's 328 00:19:15,160 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 6: cooling and it's getting a little better. 329 00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,080 Speaker 7: So I think, you know, she'll be able to deflect that. 330 00:19:20,400 --> 00:19:23,720 Speaker 6: Will she get him to say something that is the 331 00:19:23,760 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 6: point of no return for the independent voters who left 332 00:19:26,880 --> 00:19:29,120 Speaker 6: him in twenty twenty, but we're thinking of going back 333 00:19:29,119 --> 00:19:31,280 Speaker 6: to him, And that's what her goal has. 334 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:34,360 Speaker 1: To be for this debate, which, Professor Shuler, you make 335 00:19:34,640 --> 00:19:38,800 Speaker 1: so important. Will she speak is a liberal or will 336 00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:41,720 Speaker 1: she move to the middle? Is Reagan moved to the 337 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:42,360 Speaker 1: middle on the. 338 00:19:42,320 --> 00:19:46,520 Speaker 6: Other side, Well, we've seen already that she's trying to 339 00:19:46,560 --> 00:19:47,399 Speaker 6: move to the middle. 340 00:19:47,520 --> 00:19:51,679 Speaker 7: Her tax policy sort of is trying to occupy the middle. 341 00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 6: You know, price controls probably was not the middle, and 342 00:19:56,320 --> 00:19:59,359 Speaker 6: she hasn't talked quite as much about that, as you 343 00:19:59,400 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 6: can see from the reaction to those kinds of policy suggestions. 344 00:20:03,000 --> 00:20:06,280 Speaker 6: She if she can say as little specific about policy 345 00:20:06,440 --> 00:20:09,640 Speaker 6: she can, she'll come out, you know, having a good 346 00:20:09,720 --> 00:20:12,720 Speaker 6: night and that debate because she has to make people 347 00:20:12,760 --> 00:20:16,199 Speaker 6: believe that she is not the very left Democrat that 348 00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,199 Speaker 6: they have come to associate with the Democratic Party in 349 00:20:19,280 --> 00:20:20,800 Speaker 6: one night against Donald Trump. 350 00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,119 Speaker 1: So if it's a policy free debate, yes, what should 351 00:20:24,160 --> 00:20:24,600 Speaker 1: we listen? 352 00:20:24,840 --> 00:20:26,679 Speaker 4: Oh my goodness, I don't know, but it will be 353 00:20:26,760 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 4: entertaining and I'm sure we'll get great ratings across the 354 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:34,360 Speaker 4: various networks. What is her strategy do you believe between 355 00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:38,720 Speaker 4: now and the election, because boy, there's not that many days. 356 00:20:39,840 --> 00:20:42,280 Speaker 6: Well, so far, the strategy has been really to shore 357 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,159 Speaker 6: up and energize the Democrat Party base. And if you 358 00:20:45,200 --> 00:20:48,520 Speaker 6: look at registrations across the country, the Democrats typically have 359 00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 6: advantages in that regard and they are usually better organized 360 00:20:52,119 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 6: on the ground. But Republicans are loyal, they get out 361 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,439 Speaker 6: the vote, even they love their candidate, they vote, and 362 00:20:58,480 --> 00:21:01,720 Speaker 6: Trump enthusiasm still is very high. So the Democrats have 363 00:21:02,040 --> 00:21:04,080 Speaker 6: to even have a chance, have to base, have to 364 00:21:04,200 --> 00:21:07,240 Speaker 6: really match that energy in the base. And that's been 365 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:08,920 Speaker 6: her strategy so far, and I think that's what the 366 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 6: strategy will be going forward. 367 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:13,560 Speaker 1: Amy Walter in the Cook report publishing. I believe yesterday 368 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 1: the day before was really balanced. I mean, she said, 369 00:21:17,240 --> 00:21:21,760 Speaker 1: this is by no means tilting to either candidate, and 370 00:21:21,800 --> 00:21:25,200 Speaker 1: she spent a good part of the essay talking about 371 00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:28,640 Speaker 1: the things President Trump needs to do. Is he listening 372 00:21:28,680 --> 00:21:29,440 Speaker 1: to his staff? 373 00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,480 Speaker 6: Well, we all know who on his staff he's listening to, 374 00:21:33,920 --> 00:21:35,480 Speaker 6: and I would you know. And I think Amy Walter 375 00:21:35,560 --> 00:21:38,400 Speaker 6: is exactly right. So when it's a jump ball election, 376 00:21:39,119 --> 00:21:43,159 Speaker 6: turnout among your base or even mildly affiliated voters is 377 00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,560 Speaker 6: absolutely essential. And what we're seeing in the polls is 378 00:21:45,600 --> 00:21:49,440 Speaker 6: fascinating that Georgia is competitive again with Harris at the 379 00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:53,119 Speaker 6: head of the ticket, Arizona still seems to be leaning Trump, 380 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 6: and Nevada, with labor as storing as it is, is 381 00:21:56,359 --> 00:21:59,440 Speaker 6: still you know, jump ball or leaning a little bit Trump, 382 00:21:59,600 --> 00:22:02,359 Speaker 6: and that's a warning sign for the Democrats. But North 383 00:22:02,400 --> 00:22:05,800 Speaker 6: Carolina seems to be within a margin that's even closer than. 384 00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,200 Speaker 7: It was for Biden in twenty twenty. 385 00:22:07,320 --> 00:22:10,080 Speaker 6: So she hasn't sort of mixed up the map in 386 00:22:10,119 --> 00:22:12,560 Speaker 6: the sense that she's competitive in states that weren't competitive 387 00:22:12,560 --> 00:22:15,080 Speaker 6: two months ago, but she is trailing in states the 388 00:22:15,119 --> 00:22:18,840 Speaker 6: Democrats you think would have done would be doing better 389 00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,360 Speaker 6: than they all, and that is worrisome for the Democrats. 390 00:22:21,400 --> 00:22:23,200 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean Paul anyway, I don't want to 391 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:25,439 Speaker 1: go into this because I'm not the numbers guy like Gura. 392 00:22:25,480 --> 00:22:28,080 Speaker 1: But the answer is Trump is doing a lot better 393 00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 1: now than he did in twenty twenty. It's just Harris 394 00:22:32,119 --> 00:22:35,679 Speaker 1: is doing better than Bidens. But this idea Trump is failing. No, 395 00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 1: it's just flat out wrong exactly. 396 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 4: So, Wendy, I'm up. I'm actually kind of thinking post 397 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:46,120 Speaker 4: November fifth, are both parties, both campaigns preparing for what 398 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:49,200 Speaker 4: I guess and a lot of folks are saying will 399 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:50,800 Speaker 4: be a contested election. 400 00:22:52,560 --> 00:22:54,800 Speaker 6: I think this is going to be contested in ways 401 00:22:54,840 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 6: that even are beyond twenty twenty, and we hope we 402 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,399 Speaker 6: don't have a repeat of course January sixth, But the 403 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,760 Speaker 6: House and the Senate have to certify this election on 404 00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:04,119 Speaker 6: January sixth again. 405 00:23:04,680 --> 00:23:08,760 Speaker 7: And if the House is Republican, you can imagine. 406 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:10,840 Speaker 6: Because that Republican barody has moved even closer to Trump 407 00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 6: than it was four years ago, there's a possibility they 408 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,000 Speaker 6: just will not certify the election. 409 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,879 Speaker 7: The Senate will likely certify it, whether it's Republican or Democratic. 410 00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:22,480 Speaker 6: Controlled, but the House may not certify it, and then 411 00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:24,919 Speaker 6: what do we do. It's one thing to vote against it, 412 00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:27,840 Speaker 6: it's another not to certify it. So this is going 413 00:23:27,920 --> 00:23:31,160 Speaker 6: to be contested. Elections is going to be bought out. 414 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,639 Speaker 6: And I think I don't see the Republicans conceding, and 415 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 6: the Senate will probably flip to the Republicans. 416 00:23:36,560 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 7: Mile like slightly. 417 00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 6: The House is still a jump ball, and the House 418 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:42,560 Speaker 6: becomes so important because they get torn in on the 419 00:23:42,600 --> 00:23:45,280 Speaker 6: third of January and they will determine January sixth. 420 00:23:45,359 --> 00:23:49,040 Speaker 1: Pre orientation, Professor Shuler, just be sure you served near 421 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,200 Speaker 1: against it. It's a lager beer. Wendy Schulder is at 422 00:23:52,200 --> 00:24:01,680 Speaker 1: Brown University giving us great, great perspective. Mediv sing no 423 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,919 Speaker 1: on technology. Maybe let's just go broad here. And I 424 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:10,160 Speaker 1: have trouble because I do a fancy exponential pro chart 425 00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,680 Speaker 1: on Nvidia, and in video has gone up so far, 426 00:24:13,800 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 1: so fast. On my chart, long term support is sixty 427 00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,280 Speaker 1: seven dollars a year. I mean, I don't want you 428 00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:24,760 Speaker 1: to be a technical analyst, but how do you digest 429 00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:27,480 Speaker 1: the hiccup of Invidia the last couple of days? 430 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:31,240 Speaker 5: I mean, any time you see, you know, such a 431 00:24:31,320 --> 00:24:35,200 Speaker 5: run up where stock went from in this case a 432 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:39,720 Speaker 5: trillion in market cap to three trillion, and for good reasons. 433 00:24:39,760 --> 00:24:43,560 Speaker 5: I think the fundamentals have been very supportive. But people 434 00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:48,439 Speaker 5: will always extrapolate things out in the future where thinks 435 00:24:48,600 --> 00:24:52,000 Speaker 5: the law of large numbers catches up And right now, 436 00:24:52,040 --> 00:24:55,160 Speaker 5: what's price in the market is the story is far 437 00:24:55,280 --> 00:24:58,600 Speaker 5: to the right end up and it will continue that way. 438 00:24:58,680 --> 00:25:02,680 Speaker 5: And I think that's where the reality will come into 439 00:25:02,720 --> 00:25:05,920 Speaker 5: play in terms of the top line growth slowing. 440 00:25:05,960 --> 00:25:09,959 Speaker 1: But there's yeah, but I'm going to interrupt here. I 441 00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:14,040 Speaker 1: have a crossing moving average two thousand and four, twenty 442 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:18,919 Speaker 1: years ago was a quarterly chart bull signal on a 443 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:23,159 Speaker 1: small stock from Cupertino. How many times along the way 444 00:25:23,520 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: did someone rationalize the law of large numbers with the 445 00:25:26,960 --> 00:25:27,760 Speaker 1: Apple computer? 446 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:31,359 Speaker 5: Yeah, but for every Apple, there are a number of 447 00:25:31,480 --> 00:25:35,320 Speaker 5: other software companies that haven't played out that way, so 448 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:41,120 Speaker 5: we can always find examples where it worked Intel, So 449 00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:44,119 Speaker 5: there are a number of other IPOs where people were 450 00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:47,640 Speaker 5: extremely bullish about the story and they didn't turn out 451 00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 5: to be you know, trillion dollar market cap companies. So 452 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:54,479 Speaker 5: I think again, Nvidia has a clear mode. This is 453 00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:58,720 Speaker 5: a large market, this is a super cycle. And I 454 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:01,320 Speaker 5: think there's every reason to be bullish. 455 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,800 Speaker 1: Quarterly chart. Paul Intel, I had no idea. Yeah, it's 456 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:08,040 Speaker 1: flat for the same Apple. 457 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:13,120 Speaker 4: It's just it's just amazing, exactly all right. Next week 458 00:26:13,160 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 4: the market moving event is I am upgrading from the 459 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:17,560 Speaker 4: iPhone eleven to the sixteen. 460 00:26:17,840 --> 00:26:19,439 Speaker 3: Okay, I don't know which one and whatever. 461 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:21,840 Speaker 4: So Tim, Tim Cook, he's been made aware of this. 462 00:26:23,240 --> 00:26:26,879 Speaker 4: Talk to it. How important is this phone to Apple 463 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:29,760 Speaker 4: or is it just another upgrade? 464 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:33,919 Speaker 5: Well, I mean we all know everyone is looking forward 465 00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,840 Speaker 5: to a bigger refreshed cycle because of the Jenni aspect 466 00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,280 Speaker 5: and the fact that Apple is not one of the 467 00:26:40,400 --> 00:26:44,840 Speaker 5: largest spenders on Capex, unlike it's Max seven piers which 468 00:26:44,840 --> 00:26:49,000 Speaker 5: are heavily spending on Capex to buy these Nvidio chips, 469 00:26:49,040 --> 00:26:53,240 Speaker 5: and the bed is Apple owns the distribution. So because 470 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 5: of that, if they are able to offer a phone 471 00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:59,520 Speaker 5: where you can run Jenny I chatbots and co pilots, 472 00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:02,280 Speaker 5: then they will participate. They will be able to boost 473 00:27:02,320 --> 00:27:06,280 Speaker 5: their services segment. Now for that to happen, they need 474 00:27:06,320 --> 00:27:09,679 Speaker 5: a phone that can run these jen Ai models, and 475 00:27:09,720 --> 00:27:11,440 Speaker 5: I think that's what they see. 476 00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 3: That's what I'm doing. 477 00:27:12,320 --> 00:27:15,520 Speaker 4: Lisa be running jen a I m's the problem. 478 00:27:16,800 --> 00:27:18,600 Speaker 1: We're gonna run out of time here. But five G 479 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 1: was the second coming of Man. It wasn't okay, Paul 480 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,600 Speaker 1: Sweeney's gonna be using chet? 481 00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:25,119 Speaker 4: G sure down it. 482 00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 1: What's the name of the liquor storeans Egans? Is he 483 00:27:27,880 --> 00:27:28,680 Speaker 1: gonna be using chet? 484 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:32,639 Speaker 5: Everyone is already using Jenny I, but the JENNII is 485 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:36,399 Speaker 5: being used from the cloud. Apple's bet is you're gonna 486 00:27:36,480 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 5: use Jenny I on your phone so that it's personalized 487 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 5: to your data as opposed to running things on the cloud. 488 00:27:42,840 --> 00:27:43,720 Speaker 5: That's a big bet. 489 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,800 Speaker 3: That's a big bet. I'm all in on that. 490 00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,320 Speaker 4: See least well, wait a minute, don't get out. 491 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,920 Speaker 1: What's your bet on this? Is Apple gonna win on this? 492 00:27:52,320 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 5: I think Apple has every reason to do well just 493 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 5: because they own the distribution. I mean, you are locked 494 00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,520 Speaker 5: in to Apple ecosystem. It's so hard to move out 495 00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 5: of it because all your data is across Apple. 496 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:09,560 Speaker 1: They dropped after thought off yesterday at school, one hundred 497 00:28:09,600 --> 00:28:12,760 Speaker 1: and ten percent of the returning students had the stupid 498 00:28:12,760 --> 00:28:13,880 Speaker 1: white things in their ears. 499 00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,760 Speaker 4: Yeah, yep, you're like, oh my god, you made in school. 500 00:28:17,840 --> 00:28:21,240 Speaker 1: Nobody's listening. They're all like listening to their tunes, hanging 501 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:26,120 Speaker 1: out air ball. Thank you a Airpodso that's what's under 502 00:28:26,160 --> 00:28:29,240 Speaker 1: the couch, ye Mandeep singing on short notes. Thank you 503 00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:42,720 Speaker 1: so much for joining us greatly, greatly you did look 504 00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:46,240 Speaker 1: at the front pages around the world. Lisa, are you 505 00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:47,520 Speaker 1: doing back to school? 506 00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:51,040 Speaker 8: I know we did it, like it like last week. Yeah, 507 00:28:51,680 --> 00:28:54,520 Speaker 8: there's no back to school. They just go shopping. That's 508 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:57,560 Speaker 8: all she wants her clothes, go shopping, back to shopping, 509 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:01,440 Speaker 8: Get me some clothes, that's what she wants. Overseas trips, 510 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 8: you know, we've been talking about tourism right being so 511 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:06,760 Speaker 8: expensive so much right, Well now it could get a 512 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,720 Speaker 8: little bit more expensive because a lot of destinations are 513 00:29:09,800 --> 00:29:14,280 Speaker 8: charging new or even higher tourist taxes. The idea is 514 00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 8: not new, but they're imposing new ones. So for example, Iceland, 515 00:29:17,920 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 8: big hot popular tourist destination. Yeah, this year they reinstated 516 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:24,120 Speaker 8: their tourist tax that was suspended, so the raid of 517 00:29:24,200 --> 00:29:27,120 Speaker 8: hotel stays doubled that they usually charged. For the first time. 518 00:29:27,120 --> 00:29:29,360 Speaker 8: They're doing this tax for cruise ships that are stopping 519 00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:31,920 Speaker 8: at ports. If you want to go to Bali, that's 520 00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:34,560 Speaker 8: going to cost you more because they set a tourist 521 00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:37,480 Speaker 8: tax of nine dollars and seventy cents that's going to 522 00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 8: be start to implement place like Barcelona, Venice, New Zealand, Amsterdam, Britain. 523 00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:46,200 Speaker 8: So they're all kind of increasing their tourist taxes to 524 00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:47,840 Speaker 8: make it a little bit more expensive when. 525 00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:48,120 Speaker 4: You go visit. 526 00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:50,280 Speaker 1: Well, it's because they raised them. I mean, there are 527 00:29:50,400 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 1: taxes and they're just nobody cares. They're like arounding here, right, Yeah. 528 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 8: And it's funny because in Barcelona you had all those 529 00:29:56,560 --> 00:30:00,360 Speaker 8: protests about the about people not wanting the tours there. 530 00:30:00,840 --> 00:30:02,920 Speaker 4: So yes, because I mean, I mean for a while, 531 00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:05,320 Speaker 4: last couple of years, all the young people I know 532 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:08,880 Speaker 4: all went to Barcelona and I don't know why. 533 00:30:09,120 --> 00:30:10,040 Speaker 1: Oh it's a cool place. 534 00:30:10,200 --> 00:30:14,239 Speaker 4: Yeah, it's always been a cool places like Paris. Why 535 00:30:14,320 --> 00:30:16,400 Speaker 4: is everybody's going to be to Barcelona. 536 00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,440 Speaker 1: It's like, you know, they don't want me there, all right, 537 00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:19,760 Speaker 1: there's no bow ties. 538 00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 3: And there's no point Barcelona. 539 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:23,520 Speaker 1: Somebody said, you know, why don't I have a boat 540 00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,719 Speaker 1: tie today? And I don't have a boat tie today 541 00:30:26,080 --> 00:30:28,920 Speaker 1: because I left it on missus Keane's desk because she 542 00:30:29,000 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 1: got me a new bow tie and I forgot to 543 00:30:30,760 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 1: get it. 544 00:30:31,120 --> 00:30:31,600 Speaker 8: You forgot. 545 00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,640 Speaker 1: I went down into flames. She's good. She's called the divorcellat. 546 00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,080 Speaker 8: I don't know next, but you got the red Sox jacket. 547 00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 3: So that makes them for it. 548 00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 1: Yeah, we won't talk about that. 549 00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,400 Speaker 8: Best colleges speaking of you know, families, kids, Best colleges 550 00:30:46,440 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 8: in the US for twenty twenty five. Wall Street Journal 551 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:51,000 Speaker 8: came out with their list. A lot of parents kind 552 00:30:51,000 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 8: of look good, look to this. They rank it in 553 00:30:53,000 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 8: measures of how well each college sets graduates up for 554 00:30:56,200 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 8: financial success, which is what you want. So Princeton took 555 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 8: the first place bot second year in a row, high 556 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 8: graduation rate, great alumni network, that's what they said. Babson 557 00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,880 Speaker 8: College came in second. Real college, yeah, real world experience, 558 00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:14,120 Speaker 8: and Stanford that came in third. But the thing is 559 00:31:14,160 --> 00:31:16,200 Speaker 8: a lot of them. About half of the colleges in 560 00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:19,480 Speaker 8: the top fifty are new because they started to survey 561 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,120 Speaker 8: a little bit more of students recent graduates to get 562 00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:25,920 Speaker 8: their insight into it. So some new schools like Brigham 563 00:31:26,000 --> 00:31:29,160 Speaker 8: Young University in Utah that came in first as most 564 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:32,160 Speaker 8: recommended by students. And you had Dalton State College in 565 00:31:32,280 --> 00:31:37,160 Speaker 8: Georgia second road Coleman Institute of Technology in Indiana that 566 00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 8: came in third. 567 00:31:37,720 --> 00:31:39,480 Speaker 1: So there's been a lot of criticism about it. And 568 00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 1: you know, to see Babson, Good Morning Wellesley at ninety 569 00:31:42,000 --> 00:31:45,320 Speaker 1: two nine FM. But to see Babson and they're sandwiched 570 00:31:45,360 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 1: by Princeton and Stanford. Saw it again, Babson admissions to 571 00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 1: the You know, that's a good day. 572 00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:51,560 Speaker 3: I saw in one. 573 00:31:51,720 --> 00:31:53,800 Speaker 4: University of Delaware comes in a twenty six. I've always 574 00:31:53,840 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 4: been impressed by the University of Delaware. It's cool taking 575 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:57,440 Speaker 4: my kids down. Take a look at it. 576 00:31:57,480 --> 00:31:59,479 Speaker 1: They have a statue of Lizabe and sid they do. 577 00:31:59,680 --> 00:32:00,360 Speaker 1: It's a yes. 578 00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:03,600 Speaker 4: Who's number twenty eight Texas A and M University it is, 579 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:04,360 Speaker 4: I mean. 580 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,640 Speaker 1: College Station Texas. Although they're twenty they're like on the 581 00:32:07,720 --> 00:32:10,080 Speaker 1: negative twenty NCAA football list. 582 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 3: Whatever happened, I don't know. 583 00:32:11,800 --> 00:32:14,840 Speaker 1: You know, you you got to Claria University. You joining 584 00:32:14,840 --> 00:32:16,840 Speaker 1: a quirk cadets him. Next, what do you got? 585 00:32:17,280 --> 00:32:20,160 Speaker 8: Larry the cat could be causing some issues. Okay over 586 00:32:20,160 --> 00:32:23,120 Speaker 8: at ten Downing Street, been there since twenty eleven. You 587 00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:24,320 Speaker 8: know he's going to get rid of some of the 588 00:32:24,440 --> 00:32:27,840 Speaker 8: rats and stuff. He's seventeen years old already outlasted five 589 00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:30,400 Speaker 8: prime ministers. But now you have new British Prime Minister, 590 00:32:30,520 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 8: Keir Starmer coming in and he has a few cats. 591 00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:37,040 Speaker 8: There is Jojo, a male ginger cat who has not 592 00:32:37,160 --> 00:32:40,680 Speaker 8: met Larry. He's bought a new kitten to a Siberian kitten. 593 00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,040 Speaker 8: He wanted a German shepherd. Didn't work out. He went 594 00:32:43,080 --> 00:32:45,800 Speaker 8: for the cats. But everybody's wondering, and now people are 595 00:32:45,800 --> 00:32:48,640 Speaker 8: starting to talk how are these cats going to adjust 596 00:32:48,720 --> 00:32:50,480 Speaker 8: to Larry? Or is how is Larry going to do it? 597 00:32:50,520 --> 00:32:53,520 Speaker 8: Because Larry's lashed out at a few pass cats before. 598 00:32:53,760 --> 00:32:54,360 Speaker 3: From other parts. 599 00:32:54,400 --> 00:32:56,000 Speaker 1: They have to have you know, they have to do 600 00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:56,840 Speaker 1: this correctly. 601 00:32:56,920 --> 00:32:59,760 Speaker 8: I mean, so that's what the article is, a mouthfolds. 602 00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 3: It's in the journal. 603 00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,960 Speaker 8: They have these certain ways how they can do it 604 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:05,160 Speaker 8: and what they have to do to kind of go 605 00:33:05,200 --> 00:33:07,120 Speaker 8: about it. So they have experts talking about it. But 606 00:33:07,160 --> 00:33:09,400 Speaker 8: I never really thought about that much. 607 00:33:09,480 --> 00:33:11,120 Speaker 4: But could be a troublemaker. 608 00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:15,480 Speaker 8: Learry doesn't want to deal with other things. It's very territorial. 609 00:33:17,120 --> 00:33:18,840 Speaker 4: What else we got and so else we got? 610 00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,200 Speaker 8: Bank Rad has this new survey. It shows that inflation 611 00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,800 Speaker 8: credit card debt. It could be pushing consumers to spend 612 00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,800 Speaker 8: less for their holiday shopping this year. So not sure 613 00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,280 Speaker 8: if you got the Christmas list from whoever is on 614 00:33:31,360 --> 00:33:33,920 Speaker 8: your list, but people want to spend less. So thirty 615 00:33:33,920 --> 00:33:36,720 Speaker 8: three years spend less every year. 616 00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,080 Speaker 1: When the Red Sox give up, you decide Christmas is 617 00:33:39,120 --> 00:33:43,760 Speaker 1: going to be terrible, right, Yeah, I mean it's September sometimes. 618 00:33:43,520 --> 00:33:46,240 Speaker 8: But people have been shopping, it says since August, so 619 00:33:46,240 --> 00:33:47,240 Speaker 8: people already. 620 00:33:46,880 --> 00:33:47,800 Speaker 1: Started for Christmas. 621 00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,080 Speaker 8: For Christmas, I'm behind the eight ball. I don't know 622 00:33:51,080 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 8: what's going on. 623 00:33:52,600 --> 00:33:55,720 Speaker 1: Okay, donk emails and thank you, says, check the tuition 624 00:33:55,800 --> 00:33:59,080 Speaker 1: and b yuh. That's one of the reasons it's success. 625 00:33:59,120 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 3: Awesome. 626 00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:02,320 Speaker 1: Have you done her? Has you got one more? 627 00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:04,120 Speaker 5: That is it? That is it? 628 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,600 Speaker 1: That is it? Lisa Mateo, Thank you so much, Lisa Mateo. 629 00:34:08,360 --> 00:34:14,280 Speaker 1: With our newspapers out on YouTube. This is the Bloomberg 630 00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:18,759 Speaker 1: Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment, 631 00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:22,560 Speaker 1: and international relations. You can also watch the show live 632 00:34:22,800 --> 00:34:27,120 Speaker 1: on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to 633 00:34:27,239 --> 00:34:30,640 Speaker 1: see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am 634 00:34:30,680 --> 00:34:34,719 Speaker 1: Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe 635 00:34:34,760 --> 00:34:38,480 Speaker 1: to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or anywhere else you listen, 636 00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,480 Speaker 1: and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the 637 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:44,040 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app.