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Speaker 3: Cameron Dawson of New Edge Wealth writing, the biggest question
Speaker 3: for twenty twenty six is whether or not everything else
Speaker 3: can strike back and deliver the earnings growth that is
Speaker 3: necessary to unseat the narrow mag seven leadership next year. Cameron,
Speaker 3: I am so pleased to say joins us now. Cameron,
Speaker 3: thank you so much for being with us, and happy holidays.
Speaker 3: Great to see you. This broadening out trade and the
Speaker 3: real question behind it, when will we get the data
Speaker 3: and the information to understand stand whether it really is valid?
Speaker 4: It really is a show me story in twenty twenty
Speaker 4: six as to whether or not the equal weight s
Speaker 4: and P five hundred can deliver on what are some
Speaker 4: pretty high expectations for earnings growth next year.
Speaker 5: If you look over the last three years.
Speaker 4: You've been in an environment where the largest parts of
Speaker 4: the market have driven the vast majority of the earnings growth,
Speaker 4: which is why you've had the vast majority of returns
Speaker 4: come from these MAG seven names. But that's expected to narrow,
Speaker 4: not quite flip, but narrow in twenty twenty six. So
Speaker 4: you can see it in something like the equal Weight
Speaker 4: sm P five hundred having expectations for revenue growth to
Speaker 4: accelerate from one and a half percent and twenty five
Speaker 4: up to five percent in twenty twenty six. So a
Speaker 4: lot is writing on this idea of EPs delivering, and
Speaker 4: of course that will be a show me story as
Speaker 4: we move through the year to see if there is
Speaker 4: upside to those numbers or if yet again we'll be
Speaker 4: in an environment where MAG seven gets revised higher and
Speaker 4: equal Weight gets revised lower.
Speaker 3: So you add to this story something that happened last week.
Speaker 3: There actually was a big piece of news last week
Speaker 3: and Nvidia had this agreement with Grock, which is a
Speaker 3: chip designer. Some twenty billion dollar valuation of this company
Speaker 3: doubling it over the past couple of months and raising
Speaker 3: questions about the dominance of Nvidia, but also whether there
Speaker 3: is a shift in narrative around the AI story to
Speaker 3: one that is more efficient, more useful, and cheaper for
Speaker 3: some of the end users.
Speaker 4: I think no better way encapsulates this idea of potentially
Speaker 4: a narrative shift is looking at some of the non
Speaker 4: profitable AI related names. They of course, were leaders coming
Speaker 4: out of the April lows and saw an absolute frenzy
Speaker 4: as we moved into the fall, with September and October
Speaker 4: rallies that were truly eyewatering. But what's been fascinating is
Speaker 4: that they have not participated in this latest move higher.
Speaker 4: If you look at something like the Golden Sachs Nonprofitable
Speaker 4: Tech Index, or look at something like ARC, those indices
Speaker 4: have not made new highs, which just suggests that maybe,
Speaker 4: just maybe there's some rationality entering into this market, which
Speaker 4: we would welcome and see is a good thing, because
Speaker 4: that kind of rally in unsustainable, unprofitable names is not
Speaker 4: something that we would see as healthy for the market.
Speaker 6: What do you expect from M and A in I
Speaker 6: mean not just the mag seven, but in AI. I
Speaker 6: was pretty stunned after seeing that Grock deal when I
Speaker 6: looked on the FA function on the Bloomberg terminal to
Speaker 6: see free cash flow at Nvidia is just gone parabolic.
Speaker 6: Right last year it was twenty seven billion. This year
Speaker 6: it's sixty billion. Next year it's expected to be ninety
Speaker 6: five billion. I mean, they are just raking in cash
Speaker 6: and are able to deploy twenty thirty forty billion dollars
Speaker 6: without even thinking about it.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I think it's a really good question, and it raises
Speaker 4: the question of where we sit in the semiconductor cycle,
Speaker 4: because we do know that the end of the day,
Speaker 4: semiconductors are a cyclical business, and if you go back
Speaker 4: to prior siteles, you typically do see earnings grow by
Speaker 4: one hundred, one hundred and twenty percent plus in up cycles.
Speaker 4: Then of course you do hit an inevitable down cycle,
Speaker 4: and we're now in an environment if you look at
Speaker 4: the overall Socks index that earnings are up about one
Speaker 4: hundred and fifty percent off of the late twenty twenty
Speaker 4: two lows, which just suggests that possibly we are closer
Speaker 4: to the end of the semi cycle than we are
Speaker 4: to the beginning. But I think it's also very arguable
Speaker 4: that this semicycle will go further and last longer than
Speaker 4: fire ones, simply because of the secular tailwinds of something
Speaker 4: like AI. But it's important to remember that it's always
Speaker 4: this time. It's different with cyclical areas. If you remember
Speaker 4: last time, it was the Internet of Things and we
Speaker 4: were putting chips in everything, and that's why we weren't
Speaker 4: going to have semicycles anymore. I think the real question
Speaker 4: will be is how much further can this go? And
Speaker 4: is that free cashualw that Nvidia's generating today something that
Speaker 4: we can extrapolate into perpetuity. Possibly not?
Speaker 6: Well, what happened Cameron to the the terror of Liberation Day?
Speaker 6: I mean the economic uncertainty that we're all wringing our
Speaker 6: hands about, right these tariffs that admittedly have been muted
Speaker 6: a bit by the drop and the dollar almost ten
Speaker 6: percent year to date. Is that is any of that
Speaker 6: a concern next year? Or have we realized that it's
Speaker 6: actually no big deal.
Speaker 4: I think that if we were to see the tariffs
Speaker 4: as a concern, it's really captured in this conflicting kind
Speaker 4: of headline. We got a headline over the weekend saying
Speaker 4: that bankruptcies are at their highest level since twenty ten.
Speaker 4: And then you pull up corporate profits in overall you
Speaker 4: in the US and they're at new highs. And so
Speaker 4: this suggests that tariffs are hitting things like smaller businesses harder.
Speaker 4: They're also hitting smaller consumers harder, who have a higher
Speaker 4: propensity to spend of their overall incomes.
Speaker 5: So when you put that.
Speaker 4: Together, it really encapsulates this idea that tariffs exacerbate the
Speaker 4: K shaped economy. They hurt lower income consumers, they hurt
Speaker 4: smaller businesses, is much more than they larger businesses and
Speaker 4: higher income consumers.
Speaker 3: I just wonder, Cameron, how well you can see this
Speaker 3: rally continue unless you get participation that does broaden out
Speaker 3: this idea that you can see an economy that's growing
Speaker 3: at the fastest pace in two years. On headline GDP, Yes,
Speaker 3: it's noisy, but a lot of its data centers. It's
Speaker 3: not actually the mom and pop stores that are declaring bankruptcy.
Speaker 4: The one thing that does give us a little bit
Speaker 4: of solace in thinking about this broadening out is contrasting
Speaker 4: where we are today in breadth measures versus where we
Speaker 4: were last year. Last year at this time, you only
Speaker 4: had about twenty percent of names trading above their fifty
Speaker 4: day moving average. It was an incredibly narrow market, which
Speaker 4: we thought made it more fragile. If you look today,
Speaker 4: that status at sixty four percent. So it doesn't necessarily
Speaker 4: mean that we are immune to everything, but it is
Speaker 4: encouraging that we are seeing broader participation in the rally,
Speaker 4: that it's not resting on just a small handful of names. So,
Speaker 4: using the banks as example, if the economy was really
Speaker 4: falling off a cliff, we don't think that we would
Speaker 4: be seeing bank earnings revised higher nearly as much as
Speaker 4: they are and banks hitting new all time highs. Some
Speaker 4: of that rally might be a little bit extended, but
Speaker 4: I think it's important to note that there are still
Speaker 4: some signs that cyclicality is being well bid in the
Speaker 4: equity market, which just give us a little bit more
Speaker 4: comfort that things aren't his extend or maybe broadening out
Speaker 4: in a better way.
Speaker 2: Stay with us more Bloomberg Savannah's coming.
Speaker 3: Up after this, Debbie Cuttingham, a federated Hermey, is writing,
Speaker 3: although Trump administration attacks in the Committee have intensified worry
Speaker 3: in the financial markets, we believe the FED will prevail.
Speaker 3: This does seem to be the preeminent belief right now
Speaker 3: in markets. Debbie joins us now from more Debbie, why
Speaker 3: do you think that the idea of FED independence is
Speaker 3: kind of behind us and that people have sort of
Speaker 3: closed that story out in twenty twenty five and looked
Speaker 3: to a sort of more normal said in twenty twenty six.
Speaker 1: Well, I think what we saw in twenty twenty five
Speaker 1: was a surprise and then ultimately a divided said, you know,
Speaker 1: we still don't know the full ending to the Lisa
Speaker 1: Cook story. We do know the ending to what the
Speaker 1: Supreme Court has thought about has FED independence and a
Speaker 1: different type of body compared to some of the other ones.
Speaker 1: We saw President Trump go from you know, supporting Chair
Speaker 1: Poal to trying to fire Chair Poal, to being told
Speaker 1: he can't fire Chair Poal, to submitting, to trying to
Speaker 1: find other replacements for him, interviewing replacement candidates for him,
Speaker 1: for you know, his exploration of his share term in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. So I just feel like what we've
Speaker 1: seen so far has been a bit of a you know,
Speaker 1: upheaval and turmoil within the FED that now that the
Speaker 1: independence has been you know, solidified. I think that will
Speaker 1: not be the case going into twenty twenty six. However,
Speaker 1: what I do think will be the case is that
Speaker 1: we see.
Speaker 7: Less voting that.
Speaker 1: Is all in alignment. I think we will see more descents.
Speaker 1: We've already started to see them in the last three meetings,
Speaker 1: and I think that will probably continue. And you know
Speaker 1: what we've seen historically as hawks, Centrists and doves will
Speaker 1: become even a little bit more pronounced in their voting.
Speaker 3: So do you think, Debbie, that people are overpricing with
Speaker 3: chance of ray cuts next year?
Speaker 1: I think they are, at least from what the Fed
Speaker 1: is telling us with their you know, their plot, their
Speaker 1: syrians of economic projections. You know they are looking for one.
Speaker 5: Our official call right.
Speaker 1: Now as we as we you know, transport into twenty
Speaker 1: twenty six is for two one in the first half,
Speaker 1: one in the second half. But I think ultimately, although
Speaker 1: the pace of lowering rates has modified from where it
Speaker 1: was when we started twenty twenty five, the ultimate terminal
Speaker 1: rate leases seems to be the same. I mean, it's
Speaker 1: not going below three percent, and that's where I think
Speaker 1: the bond market is settling in. That's why you see
Speaker 1: you know, the ten year rallying at various points. That's
Speaker 1: why you see a range trade that is really more
Speaker 1: indicative of actual technicals and market conditions. You know, as
Speaker 1: we head into year end, supply and demand, reco market,
Speaker 1: you know, issues all seem to have more of a
Speaker 1: influence on rates on a day to day basis for this,
Speaker 1: you know, last trading week of the year. But ultimately,
Speaker 1: when you look at the terminal rate for the FED
Speaker 1: over time still at three percent, it's just three percent
Speaker 1: a year earlier.
Speaker 6: I wonder how you view liquidity right now, given your position,
Speaker 6: and given that we're now have eclipped eight trillion dollars
Speaker 6: in money markets, it seems like there's a lot of
Speaker 6: cash slashing around the system, and we have pretty decent growth,
Speaker 6: right even though even though it's hard to look at
Speaker 6: these economic data points three point eight percent GDP, maybe
Speaker 6: only two point six percent inflation.
Speaker 7: What's your view on a sort of the macro picture,
Speaker 7: you know, I.
Speaker 1: Think the macro picture at this point is that the
Speaker 1: worst is behind us. We really when we went into
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five word toying with the potential for some
Speaker 1: sort of a you know, substantial growth slowdown into a
Speaker 1: potential recession. That's behind us now though at this point
Speaker 1: we think the worst quarter you know, obviously was the
Speaker 1: first quarter of twenty twenty five. And the consumer continues
Speaker 1: to be employed, so the consumer continues to spend. The
Speaker 1: consumer is the one driving the economy in this in
Speaker 1: this you know, recovery that we have been experiencing. So
Speaker 1: I think slow growth will be the case. I nobody,
Speaker 1: I know, not a lot of people like that. From
Speaker 1: an equity market standpoint, it doesn't get the same you know,
Speaker 1: sort of splashy results that faster growth economy do does.
Speaker 1: But but I but I believe that when you look
Speaker 1: at liquidity markets, when you look at broader term fixed income,
Speaker 1: slow growth is not a bad not a bad place
Speaker 1: to be. And we've seen that certainly in the gathering
Speaker 1: of assets in the in the liquidity market, as you said,
Speaker 1: you know, recently passing the eight trillion dollar market.
Speaker 2: Stay with us, multilanbag Savannah's coming up off to this.
Speaker 5: Bronical sark of City writing.
Speaker 3: We continue to expect another slight increase the unemployment rate
Speaker 3: to four point seven percent in December.
Speaker 5: Veronica joins us. Now, Veronica, thank.
Speaker 8: You so much, for being here, thanks for having me
Speaker 8: holiday holiday.
Speaker 3: Wondering from your perspective how much the data that we
Speaker 3: got earlier this month was actually valid and that people
Speaker 3: are discounting it too much.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think there's a lot of that going on.
Speaker 8: And if we saw the unemployment rate next Friday, the
Speaker 8: first week back back to work, if we saw that
Speaker 8: at something like four point seven, I think people will
Speaker 8: believe it a lot more. Because, yeah, there's a lot
Speaker 8: of issues with the November October data. We don't know
Speaker 8: how much the government shut down affected new measurement of
Speaker 8: those months, but December should be relatively clean, and if
Speaker 8: it stays pretty high, I think that's a more concerning
Speaker 8: sign for people.
Speaker 7: How come this labor market is weak?
Speaker 6: I don't get it, because you've got incredible earnings growth, right,
Speaker 6: so corporate America is doing very well, and there are
Speaker 6: no new people coming into this country, right, there's no
Speaker 6: immigration the demographics trend like everyone old, there are no
Speaker 6: people like it should be.
Speaker 7: Companies are fighting for employees.
Speaker 8: Yeah, yeah, I mean there's been this issue of you know,
Speaker 8: is it labor supply, is it labor demand. We've been
Speaker 8: dealing with us for a couple of years now. You know,
Speaker 8: back in twenty twenty four, when we saw the unemployment
Speaker 8: rate increase, the excuse was also it's more immigration. I
Speaker 8: don't think we can use immigration to explain the bad data.
Speaker 8: You know, different sides of immigration to explain bad data.
Speaker 8: But I think what's happened is that labor demand has
Speaker 8: just weakened more than labor supply, and that's why you've
Speaker 8: seen the unemployment rate rising. It's this low hiring still
Speaker 8: low firing dynamic. But I would be worried that low
Speaker 8: hiring can only last for so long before maybe you
Speaker 8: do see some layoffs.
Speaker 6: Is that because technology and AI have made the few
Speaker 6: employees that companies hold on to more productive.
Speaker 8: I'm a little hesitant to conclude that that's what's happening now.
Speaker 8: That might be part of the story, absolutely, and we
Speaker 8: could see larger productivity gains from.
Speaker 5: AI longer run.
Speaker 8: But this really started a couple of years ago. This
Speaker 8: really started maybe summer of twenty twenty three when we
Speaker 8: saw this pullback and hiring, and I do worry that
Speaker 8: it started in more rate sensitive sectors like manufacturing, small businesses.
Speaker 8: The pullback has really been there, and so yeah, it
Speaker 8: doesn't necessarily matter if you know equities are doing well
Speaker 8: in earnings or find small businesses are going to be
Speaker 8: more rate sensitively bringing.
Speaker 6: Manufacturers I thought we're bringing manufacturing back, right.
Speaker 8: We have been losing manufacturing jobs I think every month
Speaker 8: this year, but that predates this year also, and it
Speaker 8: is a rate sensitive sector.
Speaker 3: Well, this sort of speaks to the question of is
Speaker 3: the FED restrictive and this is the big debate restrictive
Speaker 3: for who? Because on on one hand, you do see
Speaker 3: companies filing for bankruptcy at the fastest clip going back
Speaker 3: to twenty twenty. On the flip side, you see AI
Speaker 3: companies screaming ahead, digital Bridge being purchased for four.
Speaker 5: Billion dollars out of fifteen percent Bingham.
Speaker 7: So can you square that?
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean there's this fifurcation across all parts of
Speaker 8: the economy, and I think there's a lot you know
Speaker 8: that has already been said about the k shape economy
Speaker 8: for consumers. You know, higher income consumers are spending, but
Speaker 8: we definitely see that in sectors also, and you know,
Speaker 8: the smaller businesses who are more sensitive. I think rates
Speaker 8: are restrictive here, so you expect.
Speaker 5: A significant number of rate cuts.
Speaker 3: Let's just postulate that we do see an increase further
Speaker 3: in the unemployment rate to four point seven percent as
Speaker 3: you expect.
Speaker 5: What does that mean for January twenty eighth.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I think they're going to be cutting really Yeah,
Speaker 8: So we are penciling in another cut in January, another
Speaker 8: one in March. And it's just this kind of idea
Speaker 8: that you've clearly gotten more concerned on the labor market
Speaker 8: side of your mandate. If the unemployment rate is something
Speaker 8: like four to seven that we think we'll see in December,
Speaker 8: we will have hopefully more inflation data by March that
Speaker 8: we trust again, you know, early twenty twenty six data.
Speaker 8: If you're seeing inflation slowing and data that you believe again,
Speaker 8: and you're less concerned on the inflation side of the mandate,
Speaker 8: you're more concerned on employment, why wouldn't you be at
Speaker 8: the midpoint of neutral, which would be cuts in January
Speaker 8: and March to get you there.
Speaker 3: The counter argument is, if you get rate cuts potentially
Speaker 3: two by the end of March, at the same time
Speaker 3: that you have the one big beautiful bill, the tax refunds,
Speaker 3: and potentially an additional two dollars stimulus or whatever else
Speaker 3: might be coming down the pike.
Speaker 5: Don't you risk reigniting inflation that never died.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I'm not so concerned about that right now. You know,
Speaker 8: the inflation driven by lower rates, more stimulative monetary policy,
Speaker 8: you'd expect to see it first in a sector like housing,
Speaker 8: and you definitely don't see that yet. You don't see
Speaker 8: those signs yet. Home prices have been slowing, new rents
Speaker 8: have been slowing a lot. We already know that in
Speaker 8: the inflation data. There is this lag issue of shelter
Speaker 8: inflation that's going to I think, be slowing all of
Speaker 8: next year. All of the potential fiscal stimulus, you know,
Speaker 8: maybe larger tax refunds of the business tax incentives that
Speaker 8: were part of the bill from the summer. Those can
Speaker 8: help support growth, But I would worry that the main
Speaker 8: determinant of if people are spending or not is if
Speaker 8: they have a job and what their labor income is,
Speaker 8: and that we have seen slowing already, and you would
Speaker 8: think consumption would slow them too.
Speaker 2: Stay with us multile impag Savannah's coming up after this.
Speaker 3: Let's stick with the consumer as focus shifts toward the
Speaker 3: new year data. Telseia with Telsey Advisory Group, writing heading
Speaker 3: into twenty twenty six. We expect events hire, REEF tax refunds,
Speaker 3: and more accommodative interest rates to drive a continued recovery
Speaker 3: and discretionary spending, especially among younger consumers.
Speaker 5: Data joins us now in person, thank you so much
Speaker 5: for being here. Thank you for having me. It's wonderful
Speaker 5: to get your insights.
Speaker 3: As we all look at our gifts from the holidays,
Speaker 3: decide which ones we need to return. What's to read
Speaker 3: on how well this season really did perform for retailers
Speaker 3: broadly across the sphere.
Speaker 5: I think holiday season was solid.
Speaker 9: I think those increases three point nine four point two
Speaker 9: percent very much in line with expectations. These ten days
Speaker 9: after Christmas are very important too, whether for returns, for
Speaker 9: gift card redemptions, all very important to see what it
Speaker 9: looks like. But the product newness drove demand. With the
Speaker 9: case shaped economy that we have, you're definitely seeing it
Speaker 9: higher end and the lower end looking for value. And
Speaker 9: that's where you saw some of the traffic. Whether it's
Speaker 9: the Walmart's, whether it's the tjx's. They were there the
Speaker 9: last ten days before Christmas, as always, is where you
Speaker 9: got the real bump up in terms of top line.
Speaker 6: I'm fascinated by the bifurcation between Walmart and Target because
Speaker 6: I had seen them previously in kind of the same box.
Speaker 6: But Walmart has done so well this year and Target
Speaker 6: has disappointed.
Speaker 1: Why.
Speaker 9: I think overall what you've seen from Walmart and Target
Speaker 9: store standards have fallen. You haven't seen the same innovation
Speaker 9: and product newness. You haven't seen the same forward momentum
Speaker 9: of movement, particularly with technology, where Walmart is anticipating what
Speaker 9: the customer needs and they really have modernized their whole
Speaker 9: store format. The Walmart of today is not the Walmart
Speaker 9: of five or even ten years ago.
Speaker 6: If we see a K shaped economy, do we get
Speaker 6: Dollar Tree? You know, these family dollar kind of discount
Speaker 6: stores doing well, because if I look at the stock performance,
Speaker 6: I don't see Dollar Tree taking off.
Speaker 9: I think overall you will see those dollar stores perform.
Speaker 9: Keep in mind that in twenty twenty five, the focus
Speaker 9: on tariffs who imports goods from China was impactful certainly
Speaker 9: to the dollar stores, and now lapping tariffs should be
Speaker 9: a benefit to them. Over time, who you saw as
Speaker 9: share gainers, it was all the off pricers. I mean,
Speaker 9: whether it was Burlington Ross Stores or TJ Max. With
Speaker 9: the diversification of the assortment that they have, they captured customers.
Speaker 3: What's fascinating to me is you're talking about how this
Speaker 3: was a solid holiday season, and yet we're talking about
Speaker 3: a bankruptcy potentially at the end of this month of
Speaker 3: one of the biggest retailers, of saxophth Avenue, which faces
Speaker 3: more than one hundred million dollars of a debt payment.
Speaker 5: A lot of people are wondering whether that will actually happen.
Speaker 3: Can you square this story the idea that we're talking
Speaker 3: about robust sales, a steady consumer i'llbeit picky or choosy
Speaker 3: or whatever you want to say, at the same time
Speaker 3: that we could see a bankruptcy of one of the
Speaker 3: biggest retailers out there.
Speaker 9: Well, when you think of who's gaining share from that,
Speaker 9: you look at the new brands that both Bloomingdale's and
Speaker 9: Nordstrom are putting on their shelves stocking in their stores,
Speaker 9: they're gaining share. Just across the street on fifty ninth Street,
Speaker 9: Bloomingdale's just opened a new extension to their fourth floor
Speaker 9: with newer brands. Whether it's Victoria Beckham, whether it's Valentino
Speaker 9: to tem They have a whole new assortment of goods
Speaker 9: out there that frankly, perhaps if not for this change,
Speaker 9: you would not see those brands in Bloomingdale's. And you're
Speaker 9: seeing it in Bloomingdale's and in Nordstrom.
Speaker 3: How much is this a pattern that you expect to
Speaker 3: be repeated, that we're going to see wholesale bankruptcies of
Speaker 3: some retailers that are not keeping up with a new product,
Speaker 3: while others I'm thinking of Walmart or I'm thinking of
Speaker 3: Bloomingdale's continue to gain share. Sort of the big get bigger,
Speaker 3: can invest in technology, and you see wholesale bankruptcies.
Speaker 9: On the other side, financial leverage is very important in
Speaker 9: order to keep the operations of a retailer running smoothly.
Speaker 9: You get into trouble with financial leverage, that's an issue.
Speaker 9: It always takes a lot to kill a retailer. They
Speaker 9: don't just die overnight. Take a look, for example at
Speaker 9: Blockbuster from many years ago, and certainly we'll have to
Speaker 9: see what happens with that debt payment of Sacks that's
Speaker 9: coming to very shortly. But certainly, when one is weak,
Speaker 9: others can gain strength, and that's what you're seeing in
Speaker 9: Bloomingdale's and Nordstrom.
Speaker 7: We talk about Bloomingdale's.
Speaker 6: Obviously it's a great store, it's an iconic department store
Speaker 6: across the street here, but it's owned by Macy's and
Speaker 6: that stock is down thirty percent this year. What's Macy's
Speaker 6: doing wrong that it's Bloomingdale's is doing right.
Speaker 9: I think overall, the bold news chapter strategy that the
Speaker 9: CEO of Macy's, Tony Spring, is put in place, they're
Speaker 9: making advancements and you're seeing some change in Macy's.
Speaker 5: Also.
Speaker 9: You look this year at Macy's and what they've done,
Speaker 9: whether it's backstage with the off price in their assortment,
Speaker 9: whether it's what they're doing with luxury, whether it's what
Speaker 9: they're doing with their own brands, and frankly, the store experience.
Speaker 9: The investments that they've made into the top one hundred
Speaker 9: and twenty five one hundred and fifty stores is outperforming
Speaker 9: the core and I think you're going to continue to
Speaker 9: see the assessment of the footprint of Macy's continue to
Speaker 9: be architected towards their best performing stores over time.
Speaker 7: So you like Macy's, I mean, is this a buying
Speaker 7: opportunity than this dip.
Speaker 9: I think Macy's is an opportunity. I think when you
Speaker 9: think about next year and you frankly think about the
Speaker 9: enhancements that they've made to assortment, both in Macy's and Bloomingdale's,
Speaker 9: it's not expensive for where it is, and you look
Speaker 9: at the landscape of department stores that are public companies,
Speaker 9: it's Macy's, Coals, and Dillard's. Macy's has an opportunity on
Speaker 9: valuation to move higher.
Speaker 3: Do you think that early next year we're going to
Speaker 3: see pretty big price increases across the board for retail goods.
Speaker 9: You're going to see more price increases coming. But keep
Speaker 9: in mind this innovation and newness that we have, you
Speaker 9: don't have a comparative, so we'll have to see what
Speaker 9: those prices look like. Consumers are cautious and discerning, but
Speaker 9: they'll buy what they don't have.
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