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Speaker 1: So our guest is Dana Doria Cocy iow It Investnet. Dana.

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Speaker 1: We we knew the Fed was going to raise rates

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Speaker 1: by seventy basis points, say, had it well telegraphed? And

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Speaker 1: yet the market is selling off pretty hard? Uh it's

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Speaker 1: I guess it's just somehow this is not all priced

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Speaker 1: in yet it's hard to understand, right, Um, yeah, it

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Speaker 1: could have been more telegraphed. And when you think about

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Speaker 1: what's going on in markets with inflation and um, that

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Speaker 1: CPI report we saw in August, the inflation report, Um really,

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Speaker 1: I mean I think there was some hope that you'd

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Speaker 1: see some decrease energy prices going down, but in fact

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Speaker 1: what happened was the opposite. We had sheltered come back

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Speaker 1: and education services, medical service, etcetera. So it really shouldn't

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Speaker 1: have been a surprise to market. But I think, you know,

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Speaker 1: in addition to the seventy five basis points is the

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Speaker 1: reality that this boo is going to keep going. And

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Speaker 1: you know we're probably looking at seventy five of November

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Speaker 1: see in December, right, I mean, this is where the

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Speaker 1: plot is taking us. But there are signs are they're

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Speaker 1: not data that we are are seeing some of those

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Speaker 1: price rises coming off now, and it's seeing that it

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Speaker 1: no sorts of other data points. Yeah, you know, we've

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Speaker 1: been looking for these signs of teak inflation, and at

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Speaker 1: this stage of the game, it's I think we can

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Speaker 1: probably say that because base case becomes recession, that we

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Speaker 1: will get the handle on inflation. Right. It's not going

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Speaker 1: to happen overnight. You know, even as you see decreases

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Speaker 1: month over month, it's could take time for that, you know,

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Speaker 1: to to factor into the year over year number. Um.

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Speaker 1: But I do think that, you know, now the concern

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Speaker 1: has to shift right because the said won't take you know,

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Speaker 1: the foot off the pedal of interest rate hikes. Um.

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Speaker 1: They will continue to push this until they've really teamed inflation.

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Speaker 1: You have to kind of pivot a little bit as

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Speaker 1: an investor, and okay, recession now become more of a concern. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's It's it's key to watch the two year yield

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Speaker 1: because is until that actually turns around and starts htting lower,

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Speaker 1: it's probably going to be um, some turbulent waters for equities.

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Speaker 1: Uh what else? What else you watch to see whether

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Speaker 1: or not, you know, things will get better. Well, an

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Speaker 1: interesting aspect of all this, of course, is that we

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Speaker 1: are in a midterm election year. So just looking historically,

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Speaker 1: UM volatility is to be expected in a year like this,

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Speaker 1: and you know, this one certainly served up its fair

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Speaker 1: share of issues obviously globally UM. And you know, it

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Speaker 1: has been the case that stocks has sort of rebounded

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Speaker 1: a bit after the election season. So I mean that

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Speaker 1: that's one reason to think that, you know, maybe things

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Speaker 1: aren't as gloomy as as they appear right now. But

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Speaker 1: you know, on on the other side, you're starting to

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Speaker 1: see the VIX indicator move up a bit. We weren't.

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Speaker 1: That was sort of tame relative to what had been

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Speaker 1: going on in markets for a little while, and now

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Speaker 1: of course, um, you know, we're starting to stay reaction there.

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Speaker 1: So I mean, certainly market prices and volatility in markets

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Speaker 1: UM have a lot that goes into those numbers. I

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Speaker 1: would say this volatility tends to get volatility. It's one

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Speaker 1: of the things that comes out of the research. We

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Speaker 1: can't ignore what's going on in Europe. Certainly I'm not

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Speaker 1: talking about the UK, but inflation ten percent in Germany.

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Speaker 1: That was a read. It's quite surprising given that you

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Speaker 1: had these signs that things were saying down. But it's

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Speaker 1: going to be a long, hard winter by the looks

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Speaker 1: of things, Oh for sure. Um yeah, some some really

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Speaker 1: unbelievable readings in Germany on inflation and um you know

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Speaker 1: just obviously what's going on now too with the pipeline

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Speaker 1: and and the you know, disaster there and what that's

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Speaker 1: going to mean for energy. I think you know, it's

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Speaker 1: interesting you asked, because I'm getting a question now more

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Speaker 1: on this from advisors around, you know, was I should

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Speaker 1: I be in international markets? And you know, the issue

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Speaker 1: I have with sort of saying, yeah, you know, the

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Speaker 1: fundamental outlook is bad. Uh. You know, reconsider is that

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Speaker 1: course markets have priced in what we know. They're they're

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Speaker 1: very good pricing mechanisms. So everything we're talking about, um

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Speaker 1: is reflected in price, and I don't necessarily think it

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Speaker 1: means that you should be acting on it, you know.

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Speaker 1: Now you mentioned that investors really need to be diversified

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Speaker 1: here and with the defensive stance and everything in the

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Speaker 1: fixed income sphere. Annuities, Now, this is something that doesn't

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Speaker 1: come up all that often on the program, but you

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Speaker 1: think investors should consider some annuity alternatives. Why? Oh, absolutely,

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Speaker 1: I mean, look, I really I represent retail investors, right,

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Speaker 1: advisors who work with retail investors, and they have a

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Speaker 1: lot of different options in terms of the types of

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Speaker 1: vehicles that they'll use. And you know, it's called insurance

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Speaker 1: for a reason. Um, you look at a market like

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Speaker 1: this and they are looking for a place to go,

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Speaker 1: particularly as they say, okay, um, I've only got one

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Speaker 1: path to retirement, and annuities are absolutely a place that

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Speaker 1: we see investors look to, you know, replaced, for example,

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Speaker 1: a fixed income investment where they're concerned about industry increases

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Speaker 1: because rates have been rising, We're seeing payouts on these

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Speaker 1: annuities increase and it becoming more of an interest for investors.

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Speaker 1: What benefit do they bring over let's say a fixed

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Speaker 1: income market, or especially at the short end, which is

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Speaker 1: actually looking like good value according to some I know

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Speaker 1: it's true. It really is a matter of what type

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Speaker 1: of instrument you're looking for, right, So, you know, how

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Speaker 1: concerned are you about making sure that non discretionary income

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Speaker 1: needs are met and how much do you want to

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Speaker 1: put in a vehicle that you're willing to pay in

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Speaker 1: order to receive that guarantee you're willing to make sure

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Speaker 1: that a certain aspect of your retirement is kind of set.

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Speaker 1: And this is, you know, the standard thing that advisors

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Speaker 1: have to work out in so many advisors in my

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Speaker 1: career I've seen are combining some sort of an annuity

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Speaker 1: option with a managed account that has equities, fixed income, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: So it's not a one or the other. I think

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Speaker 1: it's how you balance the two. So also pushing on

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Speaker 1: the diversification theme in Asia, particularly China, we have the

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Speaker 1: Party Congress coming up and one of the senior advisors

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Speaker 1: was quoted in the South Shinna Morning Post today talking

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Speaker 1: about how common prosperity will will be a big part

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Speaker 1: of some of the directives that come out of this,

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Speaker 1: and part of that is is to narrow some of

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Speaker 1: these socio economic gaps. And when I read that, it

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Speaker 1: makes me think that we're still going to see a

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Speaker 1: lot more regulatory overhang. And if we thought that maybe

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Speaker 1: that was going away, maybe we have to think again. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: You know, if there's an example of a market where

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Speaker 1: you really do have to you know, the prices is

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Speaker 1: one piece of information and it can only it can

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Speaker 1: only manage unknown outcomes with one number. So this is

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Speaker 1: a market where if you think you have information and

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Speaker 1: you're looking at the political situation exactly as you're pointing

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Speaker 1: out and saying, I don't want to take that risk. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, the price, even though the price might look

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Speaker 1: very good, you're you're balancing here, right, because the price

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Speaker 1: can only reflect uh, you know, an outcome times of

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Speaker 1: the possibility of that outcome. So, yes, I think there's

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Speaker 1: risks with China. I think in spite of what we've seen,

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Speaker 1: the reaction the market has had and the trouble they've

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Speaker 1: had this year, given the interference already, and it doesn't

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Speaker 1: seem like that's necessarily going to stop. Mid Terms quite

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Speaker 1: often to the alpha in that markets, and we've got

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Speaker 1: them coming up. But how do you think that's going

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Speaker 1: to pan out? And what do the market reactions likely

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Speaker 1: to be? Um, I think that it'll be a good

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Speaker 1: thing to get past them in terms, right, it's you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: certainly adds to the volatility in the market, and you know,

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Speaker 1: we've moved back and forth. There's been so many developments

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Speaker 1: this year in terms of just which which way are

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Speaker 1: things going to swing? But you know, history tells us

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Speaker 1: that when we get past that kind of theater in

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Speaker 1: the markets, we do get to a point where excuse

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Speaker 1: in the midterm elections, we do get to a point

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Speaker 1: where markets do can bounce back. Dana, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for joining us A. Dana Aria, the co c

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Speaker 1: I Owe to Investment, getting her take on the market