1 00:00:01,000 --> 00:00:03,200 Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Betting Pros. It's time to place 2 00:00:03,240 --> 00:00:05,600 Speaker 1: your bets. It is Meet Joey p Joe Pi's Apia, 3 00:00:05,640 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: and this is VP NFL and we're gonna do things 4 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:11,440 Speaker 1: a little differently today. Normally we're talking about picks, we're 5 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:14,440 Speaker 1: talking about games, we're talking about players. But today we're 6 00:00:14,480 --> 00:00:16,440 Speaker 1: gonna talk a little bit about process and what it 7 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:18,880 Speaker 1: means to make money sports betting in the NFL, because 8 00:00:18,920 --> 00:00:21,040 Speaker 1: it's not easy. If it was easy, everybody would be 9 00:00:21,079 --> 00:00:23,280 Speaker 1: out there doing it. So to help me along this 10 00:00:23,440 --> 00:00:27,360 Speaker 1: journey of success in NFL wagering, the Undertaker himself, Andrew 11 00:00:27,360 --> 00:00:29,960 Speaker 1: Erickson and my Patty Cakes Pat fitz Morris, who I'm 12 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:32,920 Speaker 1: sure you're familiar with from the betting shows for golf 13 00:00:32,960 --> 00:00:35,280 Speaker 1: here on the program, but is also one hell of 14 00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:38,640 Speaker 1: an NFL better and gentlemen, let's just jump in with 15 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,120 Speaker 1: two feet here because as everyone's watching here on the 16 00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:43,839 Speaker 1: Betting Pros YouTube channel, subscribe to the channel. The one 17 00:00:43,840 --> 00:00:45,720 Speaker 1: thing that I think becomes very daunting for people right 18 00:00:45,760 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: away is when people come in from a love of 19 00:00:48,479 --> 00:00:50,559 Speaker 1: fantasy football or just a love of football, and they 20 00:00:50,560 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 1: want to start to dip their toes in the waters. 21 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: I feel like a lot of times when it comes 22 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,320 Speaker 1: to betting, people go too hard, too quick, get frustrated, 23 00:00:57,360 --> 00:01:00,720 Speaker 1: and get out, and that's not really a path to success. 24 00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:02,080 Speaker 1: I think a lot of this has to do if 25 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:04,800 Speaker 1: you're gonna beat the book. The long term success has 26 00:01:04,840 --> 00:01:07,240 Speaker 1: to do with being very calculated on the risk of 27 00:01:07,280 --> 00:01:09,520 Speaker 1: you take. Whether it's your preseason kind of better like 28 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,280 Speaker 1: I am, where you like to go attack all those 29 00:01:11,319 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: awards and those markets and play them like stocks, or 30 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,679 Speaker 1: if you're somebody who's really micromanaging props. Either way, it 31 00:01:17,760 --> 00:01:19,600 Speaker 1: takes a lot of patience and pat I want to 32 00:01:19,600 --> 00:01:21,800 Speaker 1: start with you on this one because I think process 33 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:25,080 Speaker 1: is really what's important here. It process is not going 34 00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:28,120 Speaker 1: to always yield good results. But you know, if a 35 00:01:28,200 --> 00:01:31,240 Speaker 1: defense is really bad against the run, and you know 36 00:01:31,319 --> 00:01:33,160 Speaker 1: every week you're taking the running back to go over 37 00:01:33,200 --> 00:01:36,560 Speaker 1: on the rushing yards, most times that's gonna work for you. 38 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:38,720 Speaker 1: Every now and then it's not going to But you 39 00:01:38,800 --> 00:01:41,039 Speaker 1: have to understand part of the process means there's gonna 40 00:01:41,040 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: be failure because it's a game. 41 00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:43,440 Speaker 2: It's football. 42 00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:46,000 Speaker 1: So in terms of process, how much of a slave 43 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:48,720 Speaker 1: to process are you when you're looking into NFL betting. 44 00:01:49,320 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know that I have any sort of system, 45 00:01:52,600 --> 00:01:54,920 Speaker 3: but I do think it helps to have sort of 46 00:01:54,920 --> 00:01:58,160 Speaker 3: a basic framework that you follow for betting the NFL. 47 00:01:58,240 --> 00:02:00,520 Speaker 3: Like if you're making fifteen bets one week and to 48 00:02:00,800 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 3: the next, that kind of suggest you're just betting on 49 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 3: whims and it's hard to be profitable that way. Like 50 00:02:05,800 --> 00:02:07,760 Speaker 3: I do, I do think it's a good idea to 51 00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:11,320 Speaker 3: find a routine that works for you and stick with it. 52 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 3: And by routine, I guess I mean kind of a schedule, 53 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 3: like you're doing your research and making early bets the 54 00:02:17,080 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 3: same day every week. Yeah, And I do think if 55 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:22,800 Speaker 3: you're dialed into the NFL, there's value to betting games 56 00:02:22,840 --> 00:02:24,440 Speaker 3: early in the week when the lines are a little 57 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:26,800 Speaker 3: softer than they will be on Sunday mornings. 58 00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:30,919 Speaker 1: And speaking of you know, sports betting systems, if you're 59 00:02:30,960 --> 00:02:33,359 Speaker 1: not that sort of better, you have an opportunity on 60 00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,480 Speaker 1: the betting pros app to actually use the betting systems 61 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: that a lot of people who are better at that 62 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:40,760 Speaker 1: quote unquote, who are a little bit deeper into the 63 00:02:40,800 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: weeds with that sort of stuff, you can create your 64 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:44,480 Speaker 1: own if you're that type of person or you can 65 00:02:44,560 --> 00:02:46,360 Speaker 1: use the ones that already exist that people are making up. 66 00:02:46,360 --> 00:02:48,239 Speaker 1: Some of the models are really great, so you can 67 00:02:48,520 --> 00:02:50,239 Speaker 1: go ahead and follow those over on Betting Pros on 68 00:02:50,280 --> 00:02:50,519 Speaker 1: the app. 69 00:02:50,560 --> 00:02:51,359 Speaker 2: You can download that. 70 00:02:51,320 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: Today and find some of those betting systems that actually 71 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 1: are working and have been profitable. And that's one of 72 00:02:56,520 --> 00:02:59,760 Speaker 1: the great things about VP. But also the importance of 73 00:03:00,040 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: I think bank roll management Andrew is really important. You 74 00:03:02,560 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 1: have to know what you're working with for the season. 75 00:03:05,480 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: I always tell people it's like, look, you have one 76 00:03:07,040 --> 00:03:08,480 Speaker 1: hundred dollars, let's say that's all you. 77 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:10,160 Speaker 2: Have, Well, you have to be very careful with that. 78 00:03:10,200 --> 00:03:12,200 Speaker 1: If you have one thousand dollars, well, I mean you 79 00:03:12,320 --> 00:03:14,639 Speaker 1: have to be a little bit careful with that too. 80 00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:17,520 Speaker 1: But I think all of it is about percentages. It's 81 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 1: about making calculated risks and understanding that if you want 82 00:03:22,200 --> 00:03:24,920 Speaker 1: to be profitable, it's looking at not just the end 83 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:26,959 Speaker 1: of the week. You want to be profitable at the 84 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:28,960 Speaker 1: end of the year. See that's my approach when it 85 00:03:28,960 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 1: comes to the NFL, and people don't have the patients 86 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:33,799 Speaker 1: work with baseball, I get that, but with NFL, I 87 00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 1: think it's much easier to have that kind of patience. 88 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:39,280 Speaker 1: Pick five things that you like every week in the NFL, 89 00:03:39,280 --> 00:03:42,600 Speaker 1: whether it be props or games, and then see how 90 00:03:42,600 --> 00:03:44,280 Speaker 1: you work and if you can be three out of 91 00:03:44,360 --> 00:03:46,880 Speaker 1: five most weeks, at the end of the year, you're 92 00:03:46,920 --> 00:03:47,440 Speaker 1: going to be up. 93 00:03:47,800 --> 00:03:49,560 Speaker 4: Yeah. I think that's always a good way to look 94 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:51,600 Speaker 4: at it too. When it comes to going three out 95 00:03:51,600 --> 00:03:54,360 Speaker 4: of five, it's a winning week. I know that Pearl 96 00:03:54,400 --> 00:03:56,360 Speaker 4: talks about this a lot on the Daily Jews, talking 97 00:03:56,400 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 4: about winning week versus losing week, and I think that 98 00:03:59,640 --> 00:04:02,360 Speaker 4: that type of mindset is really positive to go into. 99 00:04:02,400 --> 00:04:04,720 Speaker 4: And while you're kind of planning out, Okay, what's my 100 00:04:05,200 --> 00:04:07,440 Speaker 4: bank well going to be for this year for NFL, 101 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 4: whether it's like one hundred dollars a thousand dollars for 102 00:04:09,600 --> 00:04:12,680 Speaker 4: the season, then breaking up into okay, now what's my 103 00:04:12,840 --> 00:04:15,560 Speaker 4: unit size? You know, one percent or two percent of 104 00:04:15,600 --> 00:04:18,120 Speaker 4: my entire bankroll will be allocated to each bet that 105 00:04:18,160 --> 00:04:21,600 Speaker 4: I make, and that can make change based on you know, 106 00:04:21,839 --> 00:04:23,960 Speaker 4: what you're betting. If it's a minus one ten bet 107 00:04:24,040 --> 00:04:26,520 Speaker 4: versus your confidence level, or if you're just trying to 108 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 4: throw a couple bucks for something that's a little bit 109 00:04:29,040 --> 00:04:31,320 Speaker 4: out of the ordinary for you, a fun bet I 110 00:04:31,360 --> 00:04:34,160 Speaker 4: think having a goal in mind too makes a lot 111 00:04:34,160 --> 00:04:36,400 Speaker 4: of sense to to kind of a company bank roll management. 112 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:37,720 Speaker 4: What are you trying to achieve? 113 00:04:37,800 --> 00:04:37,920 Speaker 2: Right? 114 00:04:37,920 --> 00:04:39,320 Speaker 4: If your bank roll is one thousand, do you want 115 00:04:39,360 --> 00:04:41,920 Speaker 4: to try to double your money? So then make bets 116 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 4: that are aligned with doubling your money. Not necessarily, I 117 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:47,599 Speaker 4: want to make ten grand versus starting with a thousand. Okay, well, 118 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,680 Speaker 4: you're probably going to have to be more aggressive with 119 00:04:49,760 --> 00:04:51,320 Speaker 4: the type of payouts. You're just not going to have 120 00:04:51,480 --> 00:04:54,040 Speaker 4: enough to work with. If you're only going to be, 121 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,240 Speaker 4: you know, betting minus one ten, you're gonna have to 122 00:04:56,279 --> 00:04:57,119 Speaker 4: get so many bets. 123 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:57,320 Speaker 2: Right. 124 00:04:57,320 --> 00:04:59,120 Speaker 4: As we'll kind of talk about a little bit more. 125 00:04:59,360 --> 00:05:00,840 Speaker 1: Well, there's two things that stood out to me as 126 00:05:00,839 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: you were having that conversation, which is number one, you 127 00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 1: being the Undertaker. A lot of people just always run 128 00:05:06,320 --> 00:05:08,400 Speaker 1: to overs on everything, over on this, over on that. Well, 129 00:05:08,400 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: sometimes life is just not that sexy and cool. The 130 00:05:10,760 --> 00:05:13,240 Speaker 1: under has actually hit quite a bit, and Andrew has 131 00:05:13,320 --> 00:05:15,719 Speaker 1: learned that the hard way over time, and he's brought 132 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:17,320 Speaker 1: that to the show. So although we joke and call 133 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:20,040 Speaker 1: them the Undertaker, that's something that is very important. And 134 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:21,640 Speaker 1: then the other thing to talk about when you're looking 135 00:05:21,680 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 1: at bets too and you're processing all these games. Is 136 00:05:24,360 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 1: also understanding that you know when you are watching the 137 00:05:27,760 --> 00:05:29,960 Speaker 1: line movements and you're watching these things happen. There's lots 138 00:05:29,960 --> 00:05:32,440 Speaker 1: of approaches you can take. I'm somebody that does like 139 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:35,920 Speaker 1: to go into in game, live scenario bettings. Right where 140 00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 1: I am looking at and maybe I've got questions about 141 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 1: a game I'm watching, how these teams come out of 142 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 1: the gate. You can see right away sometimes how you 143 00:05:43,320 --> 00:05:45,760 Speaker 1: know teams look prepared or don't, and all of a 144 00:05:45,760 --> 00:05:47,400 Speaker 1: sudden there's a lot of value. But you could jump 145 00:05:47,440 --> 00:05:49,520 Speaker 1: in it. So it's not just about you know, betting 146 00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: before the games. A lot of it in terms of 147 00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:55,400 Speaker 1: my profitability and season is also betting during the game instead, 148 00:05:55,920 --> 00:05:58,800 Speaker 1: especially pat on games where I don't have a clear 149 00:05:59,000 --> 00:06:01,160 Speaker 1: idea of how I feel about it or what the 150 00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:04,360 Speaker 1: numbers are telling me orhere the process is. But sometimes 151 00:06:04,360 --> 00:06:06,719 Speaker 1: in the NFL, you know a team gets up early, 152 00:06:07,160 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: you believe in another team that can come back, or 153 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,720 Speaker 1: you see another team that's just not prepared for what 154 00:06:12,160 --> 00:06:15,200 Speaker 1: offense has been installed. You can glean a lot early 155 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,279 Speaker 1: on from a football game. Sometimes in terms of preparedness 156 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:19,600 Speaker 1: of both of those teams, and I think there's a 157 00:06:19,600 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: way to be profitable off that. 158 00:06:21,320 --> 00:06:24,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, live betting can be an edge Joe, when there 159 00:06:24,600 --> 00:06:27,880 Speaker 3: are spots where you feel that you know based on 160 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:30,839 Speaker 3: what you've seen early in that game, like you see 161 00:06:30,839 --> 00:06:35,160 Speaker 3: something or you're just it changes the way you feel 162 00:06:35,160 --> 00:06:37,479 Speaker 3: about that game and maybe doesn't match the way you 163 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 3: felt going into that game, and you can pounce on 164 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:40,720 Speaker 3: that opportunity. 165 00:06:41,279 --> 00:06:43,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, and look, we all understand you could have a 166 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,359 Speaker 1: good process and it doesn't always work, but if you 167 00:06:45,360 --> 00:06:48,880 Speaker 1: have a good process enough, more often than not it will. 168 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:50,760 Speaker 1: And you have to have the discipline. I think that's 169 00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:52,760 Speaker 1: the big thing that lacks to is the discipline to 170 00:06:52,839 --> 00:06:55,680 Speaker 1: stay in that process as much as you can. 171 00:06:55,760 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 2: And again that's why we're here with the tools. 172 00:06:57,320 --> 00:06:59,200 Speaker 1: That's why we're here with the shows to try to 173 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:02,760 Speaker 1: help your process along because not everybody is good at process. 174 00:07:02,800 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: And speaking of the Betting Pro tools again, I mentioned 175 00:07:04,960 --> 00:07:07,360 Speaker 1: those systems. So a lot of sharp betterers are using 176 00:07:07,400 --> 00:07:10,560 Speaker 1: those betting Pro systems on their own and our community 177 00:07:10,600 --> 00:07:13,720 Speaker 1: has built some extremely profitable ones, So go check them 178 00:07:13,760 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: out on the Betting pros app today, bettingpros Dot com 179 00:07:16,120 --> 00:07:18,720 Speaker 1: slash systems if you want to kind of dabble around first, 180 00:07:18,840 --> 00:07:21,200 Speaker 1: and you can elevate your betting strategies and make smarter 181 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,800 Speaker 1: bets every single time. Let's switch gears here and talk 182 00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,760 Speaker 1: about how the pros build a weekly process, because that's 183 00:07:27,200 --> 00:07:30,440 Speaker 1: important also now weekly process versus annual process. For me, 184 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: it's very different, right, I'm somebody. Everybody knows I've made 185 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,000 Speaker 1: a lot of money in the future's market. I love 186 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 1: early on because I'm a fantasy nerd to take a 187 00:07:38,600 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: look at things like for instance, last year, if you 188 00:07:40,800 --> 00:07:43,560 Speaker 1: were listening to the shows, I smashed the Dereck Henry 189 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 1: with a big number of big unit on the over 190 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:47,160 Speaker 1: on his rushing yards. 191 00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 2: Why because it was nine fifty and a half. 192 00:07:49,560 --> 00:07:51,120 Speaker 1: And it's a joke, you shall me, Derek Henry's not 193 00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:54,000 Speaker 1: gonna one thousand yards for the Ravens. That's insane. Of 194 00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: course he had it by week nine. Terry mclaurin's at 195 00:07:57,120 --> 00:07:58,800 Speaker 1: one thousand yards receiving every year was at nine to 196 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:00,360 Speaker 1: twenty five and a half. There's certain things where you 197 00:08:00,360 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: could see it and although it's like a small like 198 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:05,760 Speaker 1: minus one ten, minus one fourteen, if you bet that 199 00:08:05,840 --> 00:08:07,800 Speaker 1: hard and you believe in it. For instance, this year, 200 00:08:07,880 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 1: Dak Prescott's passing yards, I think it's very low. 201 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:11,559 Speaker 2: To me, it's easy. 202 00:08:11,560 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 1: He's going to go well over four thousand, and that 203 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 1: number is well under four which is calculating the risk 204 00:08:16,400 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: of the Dak Prescott injury. 205 00:08:17,760 --> 00:08:19,480 Speaker 2: So it's really about health and pat. 206 00:08:19,520 --> 00:08:21,520 Speaker 1: I think that's the big difference too, is when you 207 00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:24,240 Speaker 1: see those opportunities, you pounce on them. But when you're 208 00:08:24,240 --> 00:08:27,200 Speaker 1: micromanaging a weekly basis, I think that's a little bit different. 209 00:08:27,240 --> 00:08:30,040 Speaker 1: I think it's very important to focus on some of 210 00:08:30,040 --> 00:08:32,800 Speaker 1: those things, like you focus on one or two games 211 00:08:32,800 --> 00:08:34,920 Speaker 1: that you think you can really control, maybe a third 212 00:08:35,000 --> 00:08:37,040 Speaker 1: thing you can control, And I think that is more 213 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,800 Speaker 1: important when you're trying to look weak to week at 214 00:08:39,800 --> 00:08:40,800 Speaker 1: a situation, how do. 215 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:41,840 Speaker 2: You look at the weeks? 216 00:08:42,160 --> 00:08:44,560 Speaker 1: Let's see, you know you Monday, you know the games, 217 00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:46,720 Speaker 1: the dust is settled, you got Monday night football, and 218 00:08:46,760 --> 00:08:49,680 Speaker 1: you start to process ahead some of those games that 219 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:52,440 Speaker 1: you're looking for. Are you somebody that jumps onlines early? 220 00:08:52,559 --> 00:08:54,760 Speaker 1: Are you somebody that likes to wait? How do you 221 00:08:54,840 --> 00:08:55,600 Speaker 1: parse that out? 222 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 5: Oh? 223 00:08:56,200 --> 00:08:59,040 Speaker 3: I like to jump early, Joe, and I you know, 224 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:04,760 Speaker 3: my weeks sort of starts on Sunday night. I will well, 225 00:09:04,800 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 3: first of all, just because I'm with Fantasy Pros, sort 226 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,320 Speaker 3: of tracking the NFL is my job, and I'm working 227 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:12,360 Speaker 3: on a waiver wire article every Sunday night, so I 228 00:09:12,360 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 3: have to be on top of the injuries and not 229 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:15,880 Speaker 3: just to the scale player, So I sort of know 230 00:09:15,920 --> 00:09:18,560 Speaker 3: what's going on there. But you and I Joe used 231 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:23,000 Speaker 3: to do a look ahead show for betting Pros every 232 00:09:23,000 --> 00:09:25,840 Speaker 3: Monday morning, where we do'll do it every month. 233 00:09:25,960 --> 00:09:26,679 Speaker 2: We do check it out. 234 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:31,160 Speaker 1: Everybody Fitsy's too busy for me now, but yeah, I 235 00:09:31,160 --> 00:09:32,040 Speaker 1: I that's right. 236 00:09:32,040 --> 00:09:33,920 Speaker 3: We had to get a more profitable better on there. 237 00:09:35,480 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 3: But like one of the last things, one of the 238 00:09:37,360 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 3: last things I would do before going to bed on 239 00:09:38,960 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 3: Sunday night was guess the lines for the following week, 240 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:45,559 Speaker 3: and then I would guess what those lines and totals 241 00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:47,040 Speaker 3: were going to be, and then I would look at 242 00:09:47,040 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 3: what they actually had been said at on DraftKings or 243 00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,600 Speaker 3: Fan Duel after that day's action, and if there were 244 00:09:54,600 --> 00:09:57,040 Speaker 3: any big gaps in what I thought the line was 245 00:09:57,080 --> 00:10:00,000 Speaker 3: going to be versus what it actually was, I'd either 246 00:10:00,080 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 3: bett then and there or like check that as a 247 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,160 Speaker 3: game to watch because like, I think you can capitalize 248 00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:11,840 Speaker 3: on some early value by getting these lines early. Like yeah, 249 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:15,200 Speaker 3: you know, I just you're gonna find a couple of 250 00:10:15,280 --> 00:10:18,400 Speaker 3: lines that really pop for you. And you know, then 251 00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:20,959 Speaker 3: maybe over the week, as I'm gathering more information, I'll 252 00:10:21,000 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 3: see some value in some other bats. But normally, like 253 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 3: you can know what games you're going to hit on 254 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:30,280 Speaker 3: really early in the week, and I think it's great 255 00:10:30,320 --> 00:10:32,520 Speaker 3: to capitalize and maybe get a point or two of 256 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:34,160 Speaker 3: value before the lines start to move. 257 00:10:34,760 --> 00:10:35,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree. 258 00:10:35,800 --> 00:10:39,120 Speaker 1: I think that's one of my best processes on a 259 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,200 Speaker 1: weekly basis, too, is in you know, before I look 260 00:10:41,440 --> 00:10:43,320 Speaker 1: at the lines, I look at the games and I go, okay, 261 00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:45,199 Speaker 1: I think this is this feels like a three and 262 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 1: a half to me. This feels like a nine and 263 00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:48,720 Speaker 1: a half to me, whatever it might be. And then 264 00:10:48,720 --> 00:10:50,800 Speaker 1: when you look at the lines, you see the variants, Andrew, 265 00:10:51,200 --> 00:10:53,720 Speaker 1: that's when you pounce and you make your move. The 266 00:10:53,760 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: other thing that fits you point out, too, is important. 267 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:57,719 Speaker 1: It's not just the interest of the skill players. It's 268 00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:00,280 Speaker 1: injuries that people I think sometimes don't dig deep enough 269 00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,080 Speaker 1: into injuries on the offensive line of the defensive line. 270 00:11:03,160 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 1: You know, you win football games in the trenches and 271 00:11:05,280 --> 00:11:07,720 Speaker 1: those aren't like the sexy names that every casual football 272 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:10,320 Speaker 1: fan knows. But when those guys are injured or missing, 273 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,760 Speaker 1: you can see the impact it makes in a game, 274 00:11:13,840 --> 00:11:16,680 Speaker 1: and sometimes it doesn't show up in the lines necessarily. 275 00:11:16,880 --> 00:11:20,120 Speaker 4: Yeah, I think that the injury is really important to 276 00:11:20,160 --> 00:11:23,840 Speaker 4: talk about because when it's a quarterback or a star 277 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,959 Speaker 4: defensive player that everyone knows, it's always factored into the line. 278 00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:31,360 Speaker 4: And then sometimes you're in situations where it's all people 279 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:33,199 Speaker 4: can't stop talking about it. This happens in the playoffs 280 00:11:33,240 --> 00:11:35,200 Speaker 4: a lot when there's less teams to focus on. When 281 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:38,040 Speaker 4: did you know that this team has all other offensive 282 00:11:38,080 --> 00:11:41,120 Speaker 4: linemen out of the lineup, where that conversation doesn't always 283 00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:43,480 Speaker 4: happen in Week one or Week two. And I think 284 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 4: with NFL specifically to point out is when it's a 285 00:11:46,200 --> 00:11:50,559 Speaker 4: cluster of injuries, three of the Ravens starting quarterbacks are out, 286 00:11:50,840 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 4: one probably doesn't make that much of a difference, but 287 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 4: when there's multiple guys out at the same position group, 288 00:11:56,120 --> 00:11:58,800 Speaker 4: that's when you start to see things impacted. And like 289 00:11:58,840 --> 00:12:02,440 Speaker 4: you said, the casual better doesn't always pay attention to 290 00:12:02,480 --> 00:12:04,520 Speaker 4: that as much as they necessarily should. 291 00:12:05,480 --> 00:12:09,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, I will say this to tracking the injuries, being 292 00:12:09,800 --> 00:12:12,800 Speaker 1: well informed better to the NFL. It will serve you 293 00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:15,080 Speaker 1: very well in the long term. That's very important there, 294 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:17,079 Speaker 1: all right, Before we talk about finding the right bets 295 00:12:17,120 --> 00:12:18,880 Speaker 1: for you, which is also an important thing. Some people 296 00:12:18,960 --> 00:12:21,640 Speaker 1: like to bet games, some people like to bet players individually. 297 00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:23,840 Speaker 1: I want to talk about the prop bet cheat sheet 298 00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:26,280 Speaker 1: because we do a lot of prop betting here because 299 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:29,200 Speaker 1: we're fantasy guys, right, so we understand the corner matchups, 300 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: we understand the trends in the offense, and the trend 301 00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: lines are really important too. But the prop bet cheat 302 00:12:33,920 --> 00:12:35,400 Speaker 1: sheet is one of the best tools you can to find, 303 00:12:35,640 --> 00:12:37,959 Speaker 1: so it's a huge opportunity, especially if you're not trying 304 00:12:37,960 --> 00:12:40,280 Speaker 1: to beat the market necessarily. You know, every single night, 305 00:12:40,440 --> 00:12:42,560 Speaker 1: prop bet cheat Sheet shows you the strongest player of 306 00:12:42,559 --> 00:12:45,480 Speaker 1: props that are available based on our projections of Fantasy 307 00:12:45,480 --> 00:12:47,600 Speaker 1: pros and are all ranked by value, and you know, 308 00:12:48,080 --> 00:12:50,880 Speaker 1: passing yards, rushing yards, receiving, everything is in there, even 309 00:12:50,960 --> 00:12:54,120 Speaker 1: touchdown props too, and you can see that over bettingpros 310 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 1: dot com slash NFL Props. But again, just download the 311 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:58,480 Speaker 1: app that way you could see the prop bet cheat 312 00:12:58,480 --> 00:13:00,560 Speaker 1: sheet in there too. It's a tool that I use, 313 00:13:00,800 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 1: Andrew uses, Pat uses, all of us use it here 314 00:13:03,520 --> 00:13:07,000 Speaker 1: and it's incredibly important. Now speaking of that, when you're 315 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:08,920 Speaker 1: talking about finding the right bets for you, I know 316 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:12,680 Speaker 1: a market that I have really really moved towards the 317 00:13:12,720 --> 00:13:15,080 Speaker 1: last two years is the touchdown market. You know, you 318 00:13:15,120 --> 00:13:17,920 Speaker 1: see those guys that where they control the offense in 319 00:13:18,160 --> 00:13:21,120 Speaker 1: their own team. You know, guys like a Derek Henry 320 00:13:21,160 --> 00:13:23,199 Speaker 1: or let's say, you know, we could bet touchdown props 321 00:13:23,200 --> 00:13:25,560 Speaker 1: for him. Typically speaking, you're always getting pretty good numbers 322 00:13:25,600 --> 00:13:28,160 Speaker 1: on those as the season goes on, sometimes they get 323 00:13:28,160 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 1: a little more in the minus. But Andrew, touchdown props 324 00:13:31,600 --> 00:13:35,439 Speaker 1: are one thing specifically, you're getting a good return two three, 325 00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:37,960 Speaker 1: sometimes even four or five to one. Well, if you 326 00:13:37,960 --> 00:13:42,319 Speaker 1: can exploit matchups properly, that's a great potential, easy quick 327 00:13:42,360 --> 00:13:45,560 Speaker 1: return on investment when you're betting the spreads first totals 328 00:13:45,600 --> 00:13:49,199 Speaker 1: versus props. Andrew, how are you defined as a wager? 329 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:51,839 Speaker 4: Well, I definitely enjoy the touchdown props as well. I 330 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:53,680 Speaker 4: think those are the ones that are the most fun. 331 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 4: And again, the touchdown is the most that's what we're 332 00:13:56,520 --> 00:13:58,319 Speaker 4: looking for the most when we watch football, right, we 333 00:13:58,360 --> 00:13:59,040 Speaker 4: want there to be touched. 334 00:13:59,040 --> 00:13:59,679 Speaker 2: I mean, you think about it. 335 00:13:59,720 --> 00:14:02,240 Speaker 1: So if you bet James Cook touchdowns every week last year, 336 00:14:02,320 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 1: you're going to be pretty propable. 337 00:14:03,760 --> 00:14:06,280 Speaker 4: In the year before that, it was Christian McCaffrey. Every 338 00:14:06,320 --> 00:14:09,160 Speaker 4: single week we got a new stat about if you 339 00:14:09,200 --> 00:14:12,040 Speaker 4: had invested all the money you started with, McCaffrey. 340 00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,520 Speaker 1: Started to remember that if you had rolled it over 341 00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:16,000 Speaker 1: every single week where you had that run. Kyrin Williams 342 00:14:16,040 --> 00:14:18,280 Speaker 1: another guy really consistent with the touchdowns. 343 00:14:18,280 --> 00:14:19,320 Speaker 2: I mean, that's the thing. 344 00:14:19,320 --> 00:14:22,800 Speaker 1: There's certain offenses that are very much who they have 345 00:14:22,960 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 1: shown you to be, and I think that makes them 346 00:14:26,080 --> 00:14:27,240 Speaker 1: really easy to invest in. 347 00:14:27,400 --> 00:14:30,520 Speaker 4: Yeah, and as fantasy players that we have that background 348 00:14:30,520 --> 00:14:32,640 Speaker 4: of doing all the digging for each of these players, 349 00:14:32,640 --> 00:14:34,720 Speaker 4: we know what the red zone roles are for each 350 00:14:34,720 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 4: of these teams, and it's easier for us to look 351 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:41,320 Speaker 4: at the values of certain players and their touchdown odds 352 00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:43,840 Speaker 4: and say, man, that looks like it's a little too 353 00:14:43,920 --> 00:14:46,720 Speaker 4: long for this specific player, Like there's good value here 354 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 4: based on the fact that he saw three end zone 355 00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,920 Speaker 4: targets last week and now his touchdown prop is three 356 00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 4: to one, even though they're facing a defense that has 357 00:14:54,160 --> 00:14:57,360 Speaker 4: gotten absolutely cooked by this position over the last month. 358 00:14:57,680 --> 00:15:00,120 Speaker 4: So those are the bets I like to make, and 359 00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 4: I think that you can always find good values when 360 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:06,120 Speaker 4: it comes to the touchdown props, So that's what I know. Like, 361 00:15:06,400 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 4: I'm recently newer to sports gaming with massachuuts legalizing it 362 00:15:10,960 --> 00:15:13,680 Speaker 4: a couple of years ago, So touchdowns is something that 363 00:15:13,720 --> 00:15:16,400 Speaker 4: I've been definitely taking part of and it's been really fun. 364 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:18,200 Speaker 4: And I know you guys don't know. I'm sure if 365 00:15:18,240 --> 00:15:19,880 Speaker 4: you guys agree, but like I also like doing the 366 00:15:19,880 --> 00:15:22,560 Speaker 4: first touchdown markets. Those are a little bit more of 367 00:15:22,640 --> 00:15:25,240 Speaker 4: long shots, but it's very, very fun. 368 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:26,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, they are. 369 00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:28,480 Speaker 1: Pat One of the things you and I always talk 370 00:15:28,480 --> 00:15:31,520 Speaker 1: about every single week are the traps and the trap 371 00:15:31,600 --> 00:15:33,640 Speaker 1: games and the things that you want to avoid to 372 00:15:33,840 --> 00:15:38,040 Speaker 1: sometimes avoiding those traps are equally important is defining the 373 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 1: things you like to bed, and I think they present 374 00:15:40,680 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 1: themselves pretty clearly, and if you don't have a good 375 00:15:42,640 --> 00:15:45,000 Speaker 1: feel or a good gauge on them, where that data 376 00:15:45,040 --> 00:15:47,080 Speaker 1: is not making you lean one way or another, then 377 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:49,320 Speaker 1: it is probably a trap that you should avoid. How 378 00:15:49,320 --> 00:15:52,360 Speaker 1: important is it to not bet certain games and what 379 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 1: sort of sticks out to you sometimes when you see 380 00:15:54,160 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: a game that feels like, Oh, I don't really like 381 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:58,080 Speaker 1: how this line is said, or I don't like this 382 00:15:58,160 --> 00:16:01,880 Speaker 1: total necessarily, how are they traps avoidable in NFL? 383 00:16:02,360 --> 00:16:04,120 Speaker 3: I think a lot of the traps are related to 384 00:16:04,200 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 3: recency bias, Joe. And we see that with opening lines 385 00:16:07,280 --> 00:16:10,680 Speaker 3: every week. Like let's say, for instance, the Dallas Cowboys 386 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:13,640 Speaker 3: and the Green Bay Packers are being valued pretty evenly 387 00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:15,920 Speaker 3: in the betting markets going into week seven, and they're 388 00:16:15,920 --> 00:16:18,040 Speaker 3: going to play each other in week eight, And let's 389 00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,560 Speaker 3: say the Cowboys get a very convincing win in week seven, 390 00:16:21,600 --> 00:16:24,120 Speaker 3: they win handily, they play great, and let's say the 391 00:16:24,160 --> 00:16:27,040 Speaker 3: Packers played terribly and get smoked by some mediocre team. 392 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 3: So even though Dallas and Green Bay were being valued 393 00:16:29,800 --> 00:16:33,000 Speaker 3: pretty equally going into week seven by the betting markets, 394 00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 3: the results of week seven are going to have a 395 00:16:34,880 --> 00:16:37,400 Speaker 3: huge impact on that opening line in week eight and 396 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:39,840 Speaker 3: how betters are viewing that game. Like let's say the 397 00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:42,800 Speaker 3: games in Green Bay. If they were still being viewed 398 00:16:42,800 --> 00:16:45,400 Speaker 3: as equals, the Packers might have been a two point 399 00:16:45,440 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 3: home favorite against the Cowboys. But with the Packers looking 400 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,800 Speaker 3: like garbage in week seven and the Cowboys looking like 401 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:53,440 Speaker 3: world beaters. Maybe the Cowboys go in as a one 402 00:16:53,520 --> 00:16:57,000 Speaker 3: point road favorite, and I would consider Dallas a trap 403 00:16:57,040 --> 00:17:01,880 Speaker 3: in that situation. But these are crucial, especially like humiliation 404 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,439 Speaker 3: can be a powerful motivator in the NFL, like at 405 00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:07,280 Speaker 3: least for teams good enough to do something about their humiliation. 406 00:17:07,520 --> 00:17:10,240 Speaker 3: So the Packers are probably ticked off and breathing fire 407 00:17:10,320 --> 00:17:12,560 Speaker 3: going into that game against Dallas. Made the Cowboys are 408 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,960 Speaker 3: a little fat and happy after the big win. We're 409 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 3: already getting some value on the Packers due to the 410 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 3: recency bias, and now the Packers have a motivational edge. Two. 411 00:17:21,520 --> 00:17:24,480 Speaker 1: Yeah, recency bias is a huge part of those trap games. 412 00:17:24,480 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 1: And also you have so many of these these moments too, 413 00:17:29,600 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 1: in games where you have these revenge narratives that everybody 414 00:17:32,320 --> 00:17:34,920 Speaker 1: wants to always play up and sometimes those are very overrated. 415 00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:36,800 Speaker 1: Those can also be a trap. And sometimes the biggest 416 00:17:36,800 --> 00:17:40,200 Speaker 1: trap is also when you just parlay a little too hard. 417 00:17:40,200 --> 00:17:42,919 Speaker 1: I want to talk about parlays and what their place 418 00:17:43,160 --> 00:17:46,040 Speaker 1: is in NFL wagering before we do. If you are 419 00:17:46,080 --> 00:17:48,520 Speaker 1: looking to make some parlays, do it the safe way, 420 00:17:48,600 --> 00:17:50,640 Speaker 1: do it the smart way. Use the same game parlay 421 00:17:50,680 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 1: tool over on Betting Pros because that's also available. It'll 422 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,840 Speaker 1: help give you a better sense of which ones are 423 00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 1: likely to hit based on the ones you like in 424 00:17:58,760 --> 00:17:59,399 Speaker 1: the first place. 425 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:01,520 Speaker 2: Again, if you're somebody that you. 426 00:18:01,520 --> 00:18:04,160 Speaker 1: Know loves for Justin Herbert to go over as passing 427 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:05,919 Speaker 1: yards in the day, you might not want to Marion 428 00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,879 Speaker 1: Hampton's rushing yards as well. You know, those kind of 429 00:18:08,960 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: things don't correlate. Correlations a big part of getting a 430 00:18:12,520 --> 00:18:14,879 Speaker 1: good parlay where you're trying to write a game script 431 00:18:14,880 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: basically for the game. And again the same game parlay 432 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 1: builder tool bettingpros dot Com slash Parlay. That's a great 433 00:18:20,359 --> 00:18:23,000 Speaker 1: opportunity for you. Go check that out and you know, 434 00:18:23,040 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: make some cash off of that. So go ahead and 435 00:18:24,640 --> 00:18:26,359 Speaker 1: use that one of the many tools available for you 436 00:18:26,840 --> 00:18:29,320 Speaker 1: and pat to me as we kind of move over 437 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:33,480 Speaker 1: to parlays and throwing money away, it's variants. When you 438 00:18:33,520 --> 00:18:37,359 Speaker 1: add too much variance, the books win. Sure, it's a 439 00:18:37,440 --> 00:18:40,800 Speaker 1: very tantalizing payout. You go from oh a plus profitable 440 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 1: two to one as opposed to, oh my god, look 441 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,280 Speaker 1: at this, it's twelve to one if I add three 442 00:18:45,359 --> 00:18:47,800 Speaker 1: more things to it. But to me, the trick is 443 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,240 Speaker 1: you know, if you have, let's say, you know, twenty 444 00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:53,080 Speaker 1: dollars to wager that week, it might be smart to 445 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,200 Speaker 1: bet some of the individual things that you like separately 446 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,640 Speaker 1: there and then take two of the things you feel 447 00:18:58,680 --> 00:19:01,399 Speaker 1: best about. Parent I talk on the shows all the 448 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:04,879 Speaker 1: time about duo bets. Once you add that third thing, right, 449 00:19:05,240 --> 00:19:08,080 Speaker 1: three strikes, you're out. Typically that third piece sometimes is 450 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:10,240 Speaker 1: enough to take you out of it and we all 451 00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:14,320 Speaker 1: get greedy. Right, You're better off spending extra money on 452 00:19:14,359 --> 00:19:17,040 Speaker 1: the two leg parlay than trying to add that third 453 00:19:17,119 --> 00:19:20,480 Speaker 1: leg because it's just chasing and variance is going to 454 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:21,480 Speaker 1: kill you at the end of the day. 455 00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:23,240 Speaker 2: Pat, what's the biggest mistake. 456 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:24,760 Speaker 1: You find that people make when it comes to parlays, 457 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:26,840 Speaker 1: because like, that's the big money, win it fast, all 458 00:19:26,840 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: this stuff. Oh, I saw the screenshot on Twitter, But 459 00:19:29,840 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: that's not a way to be a sustained profitability in 460 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:33,159 Speaker 1: the NFL. 461 00:19:33,600 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 3: The allure of big money is the big trap. Joe, 462 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:38,960 Speaker 3: and I see this all the time with my teenage 463 00:19:39,000 --> 00:19:41,920 Speaker 3: son and his friends who are novice betters, and they 464 00:19:41,960 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 3: are constantly chasing the four, five and six leg parlays 465 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 3: for the big payoff. And it's you know, it can 466 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 3: be hard enough to get one thing right with NFL betting, 467 00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:54,720 Speaker 3: let alone two, three, four or five six things. So 468 00:19:55,640 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 3: like I generally, quite honestly, I kind of avoid parlays 469 00:20:00,119 --> 00:20:03,639 Speaker 3: until unless I can find the sort of correlation bets 470 00:20:03,680 --> 00:20:08,040 Speaker 3: that you're talking about, Joe, where let's say you like 471 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,239 Speaker 3: an over on a Ravers Ravens Bengals game, and you know, 472 00:20:11,320 --> 00:20:13,399 Speaker 3: maybe you parlay the over in that game with the 473 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:17,159 Speaker 3: over on Lamar Jackson's rushing yardage, or you really like 474 00:20:17,240 --> 00:20:19,480 Speaker 3: the Ravens there and you take the Ravens and the over. 475 00:20:20,040 --> 00:20:22,560 Speaker 2: So I do like to see the correlations that makes sense. 476 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:24,879 Speaker 3: Yeah, if you can tell a story with how you 477 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:26,480 Speaker 3: think a game is going to play out that makes 478 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,720 Speaker 3: sense to you, then maybe a parlay makes sense. 479 00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:29,120 Speaker 2: Yeah. 480 00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:33,280 Speaker 1: Make it a two act story, not a three act play. Okay, 481 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 1: that's the but I'm telling you, Andrew, that is the 482 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:37,040 Speaker 1: thing that I find most people do. 483 00:20:37,119 --> 00:20:38,679 Speaker 2: And look, we've all fallen into that trap. 484 00:20:38,960 --> 00:20:40,520 Speaker 1: And I'm not gonna say at one point the season 485 00:20:40,520 --> 00:20:42,040 Speaker 1: there might not be two or three things that I 486 00:20:42,119 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 1: might like. And you and I have made some big 487 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 1: money on the shows with Welsh two taking the occasional 488 00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,119 Speaker 1: ladder bet shot too, which is a different thing. So 489 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:52,480 Speaker 1: those of you who don't know what that is, when 490 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 1: you see let's say, you know, rushing props with perfect 491 00:20:55,400 --> 00:20:57,240 Speaker 1: For instance, a couple of years ago when Devon hen 492 00:20:57,320 --> 00:21:00,240 Speaker 1: had that you know, two hundred yard rush game or 493 00:21:00,240 --> 00:21:02,919 Speaker 1: bet that sob and we bet it with touchdowns and 494 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,680 Speaker 1: we just went all in and it was one hundred 495 00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:08,399 Speaker 1: percent right, So we bet it at you know, fifty 496 00:21:08,440 --> 00:21:10,000 Speaker 1: and a half because it was just too low. And 497 00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 1: then we bet it at seventy and we betted it ninety, 498 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:15,000 Speaker 1: and we betted over one hundred. Now we didn't think 499 00:21:15,000 --> 00:21:17,439 Speaker 1: it was going to go to two hundred, but we 500 00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:19,600 Speaker 1: just kept betting it up there. And as you bet up, 501 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: you start to use lower amounts because you have the 502 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,240 Speaker 1: higher return of the plus money. So you're building in 503 00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 1: a floor. So maybe three legs of that you know 504 00:21:29,320 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: ladder bet hit and you don't get those last two, 505 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:33,679 Speaker 1: but that's okay, you're coming out plus. But if all 506 00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 1: four or five of them hit, my goodness, that's a 507 00:21:36,160 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 1: huge day at the office. But again it's correlation, right, 508 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,120 Speaker 1: So if you get ladder bet, somebody can think they're 509 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,440 Speaker 1: going an explosive day because it's a huge mismatch. You 510 00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:44,479 Speaker 1: should also, as Pat said, either be looking at the 511 00:21:44,520 --> 00:21:46,840 Speaker 1: overs or maybe the touchdown props as well. 512 00:21:47,240 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 4: Yeah. I think that with a lot of the ladder 513 00:21:49,160 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 4: bet conversation goes to hitting on the wide range of 514 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 4: outcomes for players. Right, just because their prop is set 515 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:57,720 Speaker 4: at fifty five and a half receiving yards, that doesn't 516 00:21:57,760 --> 00:21:59,119 Speaker 4: mean that's the only thing they can do. They can 517 00:21:59,160 --> 00:22:01,680 Speaker 4: only get to sixty receiving yards and you win the 518 00:22:01,840 --> 00:22:05,080 Speaker 4: median projection. A lot of players go significantly over that 519 00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:07,719 Speaker 4: when they have monster games, and you kind of feel like, oh, 520 00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:09,960 Speaker 4: I left some meat on the bone taking the over 521 00:22:10,080 --> 00:22:12,639 Speaker 4: on this receiver. I took me over on his normal 522 00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,600 Speaker 4: prop when I really felt that he could go even 523 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:17,320 Speaker 4: higher in that game. Because that's we see that all 524 00:22:17,400 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 4: the time. First drive, this guy is cooking. You think, 525 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,040 Speaker 4: oh man, this guy is going to have a monster game, 526 00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 4: and you wish, I wish I put more money on 527 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:26,959 Speaker 4: this certain ladder bet. So I agree with you on 528 00:22:27,000 --> 00:22:28,520 Speaker 4: that point, and then you want to make another point 529 00:22:28,560 --> 00:22:30,720 Speaker 4: about the parlays the issue that I have with them, 530 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:33,359 Speaker 4: and that you have to understand a lot of the 531 00:22:33,400 --> 00:22:36,440 Speaker 4: times the odds that you're getting from the sports books 532 00:22:36,480 --> 00:22:39,040 Speaker 4: aren't the actual odds when you're looking at the implyed 533 00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,479 Speaker 4: probability of your bet actually hitting. So even if you 534 00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 4: are winning the bet per se, you still are kind 535 00:22:45,600 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 4: of sacrificing some of that value because you're not actually 536 00:22:48,080 --> 00:22:51,359 Speaker 4: getting a fair payout based on the implied probability of 537 00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:54,200 Speaker 4: the bet actually hitting. So it looks like a big 538 00:22:54,280 --> 00:22:56,720 Speaker 4: number when you jam in four or five or six 539 00:22:56,760 --> 00:23:00,480 Speaker 4: different bets, but it's still probably not enough or not 540 00:23:00,600 --> 00:23:03,399 Speaker 4: a fair payout for what you're actually putting in, what 541 00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:06,359 Speaker 4: the probability of your bet actually hitting. So that's a 542 00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 4: hard time to keep in mind because with some of 543 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 4: these parlays too, you don't have to make them all 544 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:12,600 Speaker 4: extreme things like you can do. I know that we 545 00:23:12,640 --> 00:23:15,400 Speaker 4: have the conversation with teasers, where you're bringing one team down, 546 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:18,000 Speaker 4: bringing one team up, so you get a parlay that's 547 00:23:18,200 --> 00:23:20,840 Speaker 4: minus one ten. That's a different way to approach it. Again, 548 00:23:20,840 --> 00:23:23,359 Speaker 4: it still technically a parlay because you're doing two different 549 00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 4: bets combined, but you're getting it at a different type 550 00:23:26,320 --> 00:23:29,320 Speaker 4: of payouts that's not oh, plus five hundred plus six 551 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:30,439 Speaker 4: hundred plus seven hundred. 552 00:23:30,880 --> 00:23:34,080 Speaker 1: Now, one of the things I will occasionally do when 553 00:23:34,119 --> 00:23:36,400 Speaker 1: I add a third leg in a parlay. It's something 554 00:23:36,440 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 1: where I have something in the one o'clock games, the 555 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 1: four o'clock games, and then the eight o'clock game. Why 556 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:43,760 Speaker 1: is that because if the first two things hit, I'm 557 00:23:43,840 --> 00:23:47,600 Speaker 1: doing very well, and oftentimes I'll be rewarded for my 558 00:23:47,760 --> 00:23:50,280 Speaker 1: genius and they will offer me a payout. Having the 559 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,760 Speaker 1: discipline to take that payout and not let it ride 560 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,360 Speaker 1: into Sunday night where everything can go awry, that's where 561 00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,720 Speaker 1: people lose. You have the opportunity not only as you 562 00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,200 Speaker 1: get two of the three things right with which is 563 00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 1: already great, You're already at sixty six percent right, but 564 00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:07,199 Speaker 1: then it's like, oh, do I want that extra twenty 565 00:24:07,240 --> 00:24:10,919 Speaker 1: five dollars? No, take the profit. And that brings us 566 00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 1: to our next segment too, which is how to sustain profitability. 567 00:24:14,040 --> 00:24:15,600 Speaker 1: I think that's the biggest thing Pat, and I think 568 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 1: the biggest mistake people make is if you want to 569 00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 1: sustain profitability, you have to have discipline, and you have 570 00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 1: to also see the field of the wagering in a 571 00:24:23,840 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: different way. A classic example of the discipline right two 572 00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:29,760 Speaker 1: years ago and I talked about on the show and 573 00:24:29,800 --> 00:24:32,560 Speaker 1: go watch the shows, watch back and check the receipts. 574 00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:35,320 Speaker 1: You'll see a very happy Joey p because he made 575 00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:37,159 Speaker 1: a lot of money the year that the forty nine 576 00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:38,640 Speaker 1: ers lost the Super Bowl to. 577 00:24:40,160 --> 00:24:42,520 Speaker 2: The excuse me, to the Kansas City Chiefs. 578 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:47,000 Speaker 1: Now, I was so happy because I recognized the misgivings 579 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:50,040 Speaker 1: with the forty nine ers. They were lame in both 580 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 1: the playoff games that they played. They eked out those 581 00:24:52,920 --> 00:24:54,880 Speaker 1: victories that could have easily gone the other way, bag 582 00:24:54,920 --> 00:24:58,000 Speaker 1: coaching decisions, some bad moments, and all of a sudden, 583 00:24:58,040 --> 00:24:59,200 Speaker 1: next thing, you know, the forty nine ers in the 584 00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,040 Speaker 1: Super Bowl, and and I had a feeling that Kyle 585 00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:04,399 Speaker 1: Shanahan would not have the discipline once again to just 586 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:06,200 Speaker 1: hand Christian McAffrey the football like you should when he 587 00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:06,600 Speaker 1: had a lead. 588 00:25:06,600 --> 00:25:07,480 Speaker 2: And guess what, I was right. 589 00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 1: But going in that year, I was very big on 590 00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:11,640 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers, So I actually won a lot 591 00:25:11,640 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 1: of money on them despite the fact that they lost. 592 00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:15,879 Speaker 1: And the reason was I took all the money that 593 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,399 Speaker 1: I invested them to a get to the Super Bowl 594 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 1: and b win the NFC. When they cashed that ticket 595 00:25:21,480 --> 00:25:24,440 Speaker 1: for the NFC, of course, they offered me a buyout 596 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:28,520 Speaker 1: of the Super Bowl ticket. I took that parlayed it 597 00:25:28,560 --> 00:25:30,920 Speaker 1: into what the Chiefs winning, which is what I thought 598 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,240 Speaker 1: was going to happen, along with what the only other 599 00:25:33,320 --> 00:25:36,760 Speaker 1: outcome that could possibly be Patrick Mahomes winning the MVP. 600 00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,359 Speaker 1: That is a very easy correlation when you get to 601 00:25:39,400 --> 00:25:41,879 Speaker 1: Super Bowls and those kinds of situations, because typically it 602 00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:44,360 Speaker 1: is the quarterback more often than not. So pairing those 603 00:25:44,400 --> 00:25:47,240 Speaker 1: things together and guess what, I tripled my money that 604 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:48,119 Speaker 1: I had made on that. 605 00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 2: And that, my friends, is how you do it. 606 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 1: But it's the discipline to say to yourself, hey, I 607 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:54,400 Speaker 1: think I know what's going to go on here. I've 608 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,320 Speaker 1: seen what's going on. I'm watching it with my eyes. 609 00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 1: The dad is telling me all this stuff. Having the 610 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,800 Speaker 1: discipline and not always let it rot and cash out 611 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:04,080 Speaker 1: on tickets. To me, that's how you sustain profitability. Pat, 612 00:26:04,160 --> 00:26:06,720 Speaker 1: I know that's not offered everywhere on every bet, but 613 00:26:06,760 --> 00:26:09,160 Speaker 1: how important is it sometimes to just take what you've 614 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:12,000 Speaker 1: won and be happy with that instead of letting it 615 00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:16,080 Speaker 1: ride into the sunset and into the hotels in Las Vegas. 616 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:20,480 Speaker 3: Yes, it's good sometimes just get away with your winnings, 617 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:23,160 Speaker 3: for sure. Joe and like I think it's also pretty 618 00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:25,320 Speaker 3: important to manage things when you're on the losing side. 619 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,119 Speaker 3: And look, you are going to have losing days and 620 00:26:28,200 --> 00:26:32,040 Speaker 3: losing streaks, it's inevitable. Don't double up to catch up, 621 00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:34,879 Speaker 3: like be disciplined, because eventually you'll get back on a 622 00:26:34,920 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 3: winning track, but just don't be consistent with the volume 623 00:26:39,080 --> 00:26:41,960 Speaker 3: of betting that you do. And the bat sizes. 624 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 1: Well, that's a great point Andrew that Pat's making too, 625 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,280 Speaker 1: because how often do you have a bad Sunday and 626 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 1: they turn on go, I gotta make this back on Monday. 627 00:26:50,040 --> 00:26:51,959 Speaker 1: That's like digging your grave a little deeper. 628 00:26:52,800 --> 00:26:55,560 Speaker 4: Yeah, because you're more likely to go away from your 629 00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:57,480 Speaker 4: process because you're going to try to do things a 630 00:26:57,520 --> 00:26:59,280 Speaker 4: little bit more extreme and that's just going to get 631 00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,200 Speaker 4: you into trouble. And it goes back to I think 632 00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,520 Speaker 4: one of the bigger points of making sure that your 633 00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:06,120 Speaker 4: bets are SYNCD. You're using betting pros app to keep 634 00:27:06,200 --> 00:27:08,080 Speaker 4: track of what you actually are betting, and it can 635 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:12,200 Speaker 4: help tell you, hey, you suck at spreads, that's something 636 00:27:12,240 --> 00:27:15,159 Speaker 4: different betting them or betting totals, you're really good at this. 637 00:27:15,440 --> 00:27:18,120 Speaker 4: It can help you figure out where your niche is 638 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,840 Speaker 4: at the particular market or which sport that you're looking at. 639 00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:25,040 Speaker 4: So I think that tracking in really and anything in life. 640 00:27:25,080 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 4: If you're not keeping track of something you want to 641 00:27:26,840 --> 00:27:29,840 Speaker 4: lose weight, Oh but I'm not tracking my calories, well 642 00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:32,680 Speaker 4: then it's not going to work. You have to figure 643 00:27:32,680 --> 00:27:35,359 Speaker 4: out what you're doing to improve upon it. And so 644 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:37,040 Speaker 4: that's why I think track. That's something that I'm still 645 00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:39,639 Speaker 4: trying to do a much better job of doing keeping 646 00:27:39,680 --> 00:27:42,240 Speaker 4: track of everything, and obviously having the app makes it 647 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:43,560 Speaker 4: much more easy to do. 648 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, the Betting pros app, it tells you which teams 649 00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,840 Speaker 3: you do particularly well on like for some reason, I've 650 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 3: I've crushed it down the Pittsburgh Steelers since I've used 651 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 3: the Betting pros app. 652 00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:57,760 Speaker 4: Though, it told me that the Carolina Panthers are my 653 00:27:57,800 --> 00:27:59,200 Speaker 4: most bet team last. 654 00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:03,359 Speaker 1: Year, right, you know what, staying on brand, and you 655 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: know what, by the end of the year, you were right, 656 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,480 Speaker 1: you know. But then there's a perfect example, Right, Andrew 657 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 1: had a process about the Panthers last year and it 658 00:28:10,080 --> 00:28:11,680 Speaker 1: wasn't great for the first couple of weeks, but the 659 00:28:11,760 --> 00:28:13,760 Speaker 1: last couple of weeks it was fantastic. The question is, 660 00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,719 Speaker 1: did Andrew stay with the process. I don't know when 661 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:17,080 Speaker 1: I have to go look at the bank account to 662 00:28:17,080 --> 00:28:20,919 Speaker 1: find out, but process always eventually will leave to profit. 663 00:28:20,960 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 2: If you have a good process and if you help 664 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,320 Speaker 2: with your process, use the tools. 665 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,520 Speaker 1: Don't be a tool, go out there, use download the 666 00:28:26,560 --> 00:28:29,439 Speaker 1: betting pros apps. Think your sportsbooks for free. Last question 667 00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:32,119 Speaker 1: here for you guys. What's a common betting myth that 668 00:28:32,200 --> 00:28:36,160 Speaker 1: needs to go away? Like something mine? Is that you know, oh, 669 00:28:36,200 --> 00:28:38,680 Speaker 1: you can get rich really quick betting on football. No, 670 00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 1: you can get poor really quick betting on football. I 671 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,440 Speaker 1: think if you have the patience to again have a 672 00:28:44,440 --> 00:28:47,320 Speaker 1: good weekly process, manage your bank role and what you're 673 00:28:47,360 --> 00:28:49,920 Speaker 1: willing to go, and you know, make sure that you're 674 00:28:50,080 --> 00:28:52,720 Speaker 1: dedicated to getting good information, whether it's from these shows, 675 00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:53,320 Speaker 1: whether it's from the. 676 00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 2: App or both. 677 00:28:54,520 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 1: To me, that the myth is that I'm going to 678 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:58,800 Speaker 1: get rich the boom, just like that betting football, because 679 00:28:58,800 --> 00:29:00,560 Speaker 1: that's not going to happen. What's your myth you want 680 00:29:00,560 --> 00:29:02,920 Speaker 1: to bust here about NFL wagering. 681 00:29:04,160 --> 00:29:06,120 Speaker 3: I had a specific one about a certain type of 682 00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,200 Speaker 3: bet and I know that some people say you should 683 00:29:08,200 --> 00:29:10,760 Speaker 3: never bet a road favorite. I know that was always 684 00:29:10,760 --> 00:29:13,680 Speaker 3: a big betting rule of thumb for my stepdad. But 685 00:29:13,800 --> 00:29:16,240 Speaker 3: like I do think there's good reason to be cautious 686 00:29:16,280 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 3: about betting Road Favorite. It's still all occasionally find a 687 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:21,800 Speaker 3: worthwhile value with one. And you know, I won some 688 00:29:21,840 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 3: money on Road Favorite. So that's a myth I've kind 689 00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:25,600 Speaker 3: of dispelled. 690 00:29:26,240 --> 00:29:28,120 Speaker 1: There is a myth, and I don't think it's a myth. 691 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 1: I think it's actually true. The dead coach bounce what 692 00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:32,280 Speaker 1: I like to talk about whenever they fire a coach. 693 00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,640 Speaker 1: The next week, the team wins. Almost all the time 694 00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:37,479 Speaker 1: that does hit. I got the data on it. But 695 00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:39,880 Speaker 1: there was one time last year where I was like, 696 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,680 Speaker 1: they're so bad they can't even get the dead coach bounce, And. 697 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:46,320 Speaker 2: I was right. I think the New Orleans No, No, 698 00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:48,040 Speaker 2: I don't think they did. They're that bad. 699 00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,520 Speaker 1: But most of the time you see teams rally around. 700 00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:52,360 Speaker 1: So some things like sound like myths, but they're not. 701 00:29:52,440 --> 00:29:54,560 Speaker 1: They actually the data backs it up. Yeah, you fire 702 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 1: a coach, sometimes the team kind of rallies around each other. 703 00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,440 Speaker 1: It's not sustainable. It's usually just for a week. But 704 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:02,200 Speaker 1: you'll see that. What's one thing, Andrew, that you wish 705 00:30:02,240 --> 00:30:06,400 Speaker 1: somebody told you sooner? When you started betting on the NFL. 706 00:30:07,000 --> 00:30:10,120 Speaker 4: I think just to set goals and to be ready 707 00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:13,000 Speaker 4: for the ebbs and flows. Right, you're gonna have the 708 00:30:13,120 --> 00:30:15,600 Speaker 4: highs of hitting a lot of bets and maybe hitting 709 00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:18,120 Speaker 4: on a couple of parlays, and then you're gonna have lows. 710 00:30:18,320 --> 00:30:21,080 Speaker 4: And that's why it's so important to have a process 711 00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 4: to go back to, and not to say that you 712 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:25,600 Speaker 4: always continue to do the same thing. It's something that 713 00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,280 Speaker 4: you want to continuously tweak, especially year over year when 714 00:30:28,320 --> 00:30:31,640 Speaker 4: you look at you get your betting pros wrapped, your 715 00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,080 Speaker 4: year in review, your month in review of the NFL season, 716 00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:35,960 Speaker 4: you figure out, Okay, where was I strong? 717 00:30:36,000 --> 00:30:36,760 Speaker 2: Where was I week? 718 00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 4: Tweak the process and then implement it out into the 719 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,480 Speaker 4: NFL season and things shouldn't prove So I think that 720 00:30:43,480 --> 00:30:46,360 Speaker 4: that's probably something that I wish somebody set to me 721 00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,600 Speaker 4: more versus oh, just firing off the hit, like firing 722 00:30:49,600 --> 00:30:51,920 Speaker 4: from the hip bet after bet like those ones are 723 00:30:52,040 --> 00:30:53,760 Speaker 4: usually not the best ones to make. The other thing, too, 724 00:30:53,960 --> 00:30:57,400 Speaker 4: is I think Welsh and I talked about this last 725 00:30:57,480 --> 00:30:59,400 Speaker 4: year where we would talk about, you know, leading up 726 00:30:59,440 --> 00:31:01,640 Speaker 4: to the week on the Prop Show, the Best Bet Show, 727 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 4: and those bets usually do pretty good, and then the 728 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:05,480 Speaker 4: bets I would all lose. You would be the ones 729 00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:10,840 Speaker 4: I'd be firing at twelve to fifty five pm before kickoff, bets, 730 00:31:11,560 --> 00:31:14,560 Speaker 4: all terrible bets every single time. 731 00:31:16,760 --> 00:31:17,600 Speaker 2: Like dude, you got it. 732 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,800 Speaker 4: You gotta log off. Youah have to stop now, just 733 00:31:21,720 --> 00:31:22,640 Speaker 4: talk about on the show. 734 00:31:23,320 --> 00:31:24,800 Speaker 2: Well, I used to be big in the DFS. 735 00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:26,680 Speaker 1: I used to have a little post it note on 736 00:31:26,720 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 1: my computer on Sundays and it said, stop tinkering with 737 00:31:29,440 --> 00:31:31,720 Speaker 1: your lineup more on because more often than not I'd 738 00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:34,479 Speaker 1: make a change and next thing, you know, the original 739 00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:36,720 Speaker 1: lineup I had was way better. Two changes here, three 740 00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,360 Speaker 1: changes there. It's a disaster. So trust the process, that's 741 00:31:40,400 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 1: good news. And stay disciplined. Those are the two things 742 00:31:43,200 --> 00:31:45,160 Speaker 1: I think you could do. Those are your two leg 743 00:31:45,200 --> 00:31:47,400 Speaker 1: parlays to success. Those things right there. So if you 744 00:31:47,440 --> 00:31:50,280 Speaker 1: can manage those and manage to download the app wherever, 745 00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:51,920 Speaker 1: get your wrapps of Betting Pros, don't forget right now. 746 00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:53,680 Speaker 1: We've got a special deal going on. Use that promo 747 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:56,200 Speaker 1: code Juice when you sign up today at Betting Pros 748 00:31:56,280 --> 00:31:59,000 Speaker 1: using the app, and you activate your free seven day 749 00:31:59,000 --> 00:32:01,920 Speaker 1: trial of the premium Betting Pros tools. That's about as 750 00:32:01,960 --> 00:32:04,080 Speaker 1: good as it gets. So if you haven't already checked 751 00:32:04,120 --> 00:32:06,320 Speaker 1: out the Betting Pros app, do it. Let us help 752 00:32:06,360 --> 00:32:08,720 Speaker 1: you be profitable this year. Let's do it all together. 753 00:32:08,840 --> 00:32:12,200 Speaker 1: Let's be part of the process together. Make us part 754 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:14,600 Speaker 1: of your process here, so subscribe to the YouTube channel 755 00:32:14,600 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 1: Betting Pros, drop your comments below like this video and 756 00:32:17,360 --> 00:32:17,920 Speaker 1: let's get going. 757 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:19,480 Speaker 2: Baby NFL is right around the corner. 758 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:21,360 Speaker 1: That'll do it for us, But the story of the 759 00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,160 Speaker 1: game goes on for Andrew ericson Impatitz Morris, I'm Joey p. 760 00:32:24,680 --> 00:32:27,040 Speaker 2: We'll see you next time. Kids, Stay disciplined. 761 00:32:27,400 --> 00:32:30,000 Speaker 5: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If you 762 00:32:30,080 --> 00:32:32,440 Speaker 5: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 763 00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,280 Speaker 5: by leaving a positive review on. 764 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 2: Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 765 00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:38,760 Speaker 5: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 766 00:32:38,880 --> 00:32:42,520 Speaker 5: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 767 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:51,040 Speaker 5: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros.