1 00:00:04,960 --> 00:00:08,840 Speaker 1: On this episode of News World, I'm continuing our series 2 00:00:08,840 --> 00:00:12,799 Speaker 1: in election twenty twenty four, and this time we're focusing 3 00:00:12,840 --> 00:00:16,439 Speaker 1: on the presidential race post conventions and looking forward to 4 00:00:16,480 --> 00:00:19,680 Speaker 1: the debate or debate since September. And I have to say, 5 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: I can't think of anyone I would rather chatter about 6 00:00:23,640 --> 00:00:26,840 Speaker 1: this than Michael Burron. We have known each other for 7 00:00:26,920 --> 00:00:30,440 Speaker 1: something like forty years. He is the senior political analyst 8 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:34,000 Speaker 1: for the Washington Examiner, a resident Fellow Emeritus at the 9 00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:38,600 Speaker 1: American Unerprising Institute, and the longtime co author of the 10 00:00:38,640 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 1: Almanac of American Politics, which is the best single book 11 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:46,040 Speaker 1: published on American politics. And his I can tell you 12 00:00:46,080 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 1: from personal conversations, his encyclopedic knowledge of American politics, precinct 13 00:00:52,720 --> 00:00:57,560 Speaker 1: by precinct, is unbelievable. His latest book is Mental Maps 14 00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:03,520 Speaker 1: of the Founders. How geographic I'm genation guided America's revolutionary leaders. 15 00:01:03,960 --> 00:01:07,560 Speaker 1: So this is genuinely one of the great students of 16 00:01:07,600 --> 00:01:20,959 Speaker 1: American politics and one of the great commentators. Michael, welcome 17 00:01:21,040 --> 00:01:22,880 Speaker 1: and thank you for joining me on news World. 18 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:26,920 Speaker 2: Well, thank you Newton, thanks for the kind introduction. We 19 00:01:27,000 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 2: have indeed been going after this for forty years. In 20 00:01:30,360 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 2: the various entrails of the Capitol Building. You went from 21 00:01:34,480 --> 00:01:39,040 Speaker 2: pariah to speaker in a shorter time than your Democratic 22 00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:43,080 Speaker 2: colleagues ever expected, but not as rapidly as you yourself 23 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:43,760 Speaker 2: had hoped for. 24 00:01:45,000 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: That's a pretty good way to put it. And you 25 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:50,000 Speaker 1: once captured I think, more actually than anybody else did 26 00:01:50,040 --> 00:01:53,560 Speaker 1: the reader, which I'm essentially an American gaullist, a reference 27 00:01:53,560 --> 00:01:55,720 Speaker 1: which I'm sure ninety five percent of your readers did 28 00:01:55,720 --> 00:01:56,760 Speaker 1: not understand at all. 29 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,440 Speaker 2: Well, the ossuary at Verdun was a hip. 30 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 1: Off, that's right. No, I really changed my life. So 31 00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:06,920 Speaker 1: let me start with some of the most recent events, 32 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:11,720 Speaker 1: which candidly I'm puzzled by the media's inability to understand. 33 00:02:12,400 --> 00:02:17,560 Speaker 1: When Robert F. Kennedy Junior suspended his presidential campaign and 34 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:21,120 Speaker 1: then went on to endorse Donald Trump. How significant do 35 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 1: you think this will be in shaping the twenty twenty 36 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:24,920 Speaker 1: four race. 37 00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 2: Well, I think it's a medium significance. Certainly, a lot 38 00:02:29,040 --> 00:02:33,000 Speaker 2: of the standard media outlets have kind of dismissed this 39 00:02:33,160 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 2: and said, look, hey, this couldn't possibly matter at all. 40 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 2: He's got relatively small levels of support, the single digits. 41 00:02:41,760 --> 00:02:45,000 Speaker 2: I think it has some salience and remember, we're looking 42 00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:48,639 Speaker 2: at something that looks on the basis of current polling, 43 00:02:49,000 --> 00:02:51,480 Speaker 2: and there's a lot of asterisks we like to add 44 00:02:51,480 --> 00:02:54,000 Speaker 2: to that, but on the basis of current polling, we're 45 00:02:54,000 --> 00:02:56,800 Speaker 2: looking at something that is exquisitely short. I mean, I 46 00:02:56,840 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 2: looked at RealClearPolitics dot com average of supposed this morning 47 00:03:01,240 --> 00:03:05,400 Speaker 2: and of the state of Pennsylvania with nineteen electoral votes, 48 00:03:05,720 --> 00:03:09,680 Speaker 2: pretty significant state one that Donald Trump carried twenty sixteen 49 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 2: lost in twenty twenty, each case by less than one 50 00:03:12,800 --> 00:03:16,640 Speaker 2: percent of the vote. Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris 51 00:03:17,080 --> 00:03:22,280 Speaker 2: by point two percent two tenths of one percent if 52 00:03:22,600 --> 00:03:26,520 Speaker 2: Robert F. Kennedy Junior's endorsement is worth a net zero 53 00:03:26,639 --> 00:03:31,200 Speaker 2: point three percent, which the excellent elections polling analyst Nate 54 00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 2: Silver suggested that point three percent is set to double 55 00:03:36,320 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 2: what Donald Trump's lead in Pennsylvania for those nineteen electoral votes. 56 00:03:41,240 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 2: That makes the difference between the two hundred and thirty 57 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:47,680 Speaker 2: five that he won of today's electoral votes. It states 58 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 2: that he won in twenty twenty versus two fifty four 59 00:03:51,680 --> 00:03:55,000 Speaker 2: and puts him in position with another sixteen electoral votes, 60 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:59,440 Speaker 2: which is coincidentally the state of George's number electoral votes 61 00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:03,080 Speaker 2: in each of two seventy. So I think that even 62 00:04:03,120 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 2: a small boost is worth something and perhaps can make 63 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 2: a whole lot of difference. 64 00:04:09,640 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: I've struck with two things. There's a poll out this 65 00:04:13,120 --> 00:04:18,320 Speaker 1: morning that shows that nationally, with Robert F. Kennedy Junior 66 00:04:18,360 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 1: out of the race, they're basically tied at forty eight 67 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:27,280 Speaker 1: forty eight. Well, what struck me was this is immediately 68 00:04:27,320 --> 00:04:30,840 Speaker 1: after their convention. To be tied right after the convention 69 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,479 Speaker 1: strikes me should be worrisome, much more worrisome to the 70 00:04:34,560 --> 00:04:36,480 Speaker 1: left than it seems to be. 71 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 2: Well, you have the Nate Silver colleague Eli McCown writing 72 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,440 Speaker 2: this morning that before we've gotten much in the way 73 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 2: of post Democratic convention polls, that Kamala Harris may have 74 00:04:48,440 --> 00:04:52,000 Speaker 2: gotten her convention bounce in the thirty seven days of 75 00:04:52,200 --> 00:04:55,240 Speaker 2: puff press coverage, that she's gotten for most of the 76 00:04:55,240 --> 00:04:59,640 Speaker 2: mainstream media, who have been sitting back there like contented cats, 77 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:03,880 Speaker 2: given a little cat nip of joy at the Democratic Convention, 78 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,279 Speaker 2: and not asking any questions. 79 00:05:06,920 --> 00:05:10,279 Speaker 1: If that bounce, whether it's she has real momentum coming 80 00:05:10,279 --> 00:05:13,960 Speaker 1: from where Biden was, which is different than real momentum 81 00:05:14,000 --> 00:05:15,080 Speaker 1: pulling away from Trump. 82 00:05:15,640 --> 00:05:17,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think we're going to see anything like 83 00:05:18,040 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 2: seventeen points do coccus lead going into an eight point 84 00:05:22,080 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 2: George W. Bush victory in the popular vote and carrying 85 00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:30,400 Speaker 2: forty states. I think there's a lot more partisan polarization now. 86 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:33,440 Speaker 2: I took a look at one of the convention bounced status, 87 00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:36,919 Speaker 2: and basically, if you take the conventions from nineteen seventy 88 00:05:36,960 --> 00:05:40,760 Speaker 2: six until two thousand, those were mostly conventions where it 89 00:05:40,800 --> 00:05:43,400 Speaker 2: was clear who was going to win those nominations. So 90 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:47,000 Speaker 2: in each case, the winning candidate, to a greater elctionser extent, 91 00:05:47,080 --> 00:05:49,679 Speaker 2: was trying to put on a political commercial for four 92 00:05:49,800 --> 00:05:55,160 Speaker 2: evenings of ABC, NBCCBS coverage in the days before we 93 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,760 Speaker 2: had one hundred cable and streaming options. In those days, 94 00:05:58,800 --> 00:06:03,360 Speaker 2: you've got average convention bounce for Democratic and Republican candidates 95 00:06:03,400 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 2: with seven point two points. If you look at the 96 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 2: conventions from two thousand and four to twenty twenty, it's 97 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,719 Speaker 2: one point eight. And I think what we're seeing for KAMBLA. 98 00:06:12,800 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 2: Harris is more in line of that. And if you 99 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 2: go back and look at the Trump convention, you might 100 00:06:18,800 --> 00:06:23,640 Speaker 2: see something that resembles those very minor bounces, but you know, 101 00:06:23,680 --> 00:06:26,880 Speaker 2: we're looking at each of these. It's been close. And 102 00:06:26,880 --> 00:06:29,520 Speaker 2: of course, one of the things that you mentioned that 103 00:06:29,600 --> 00:06:33,560 Speaker 2: we don't fully know and understand about this election, but 104 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:37,039 Speaker 2: that we've seen as critical in electing a president in 105 00:06:37,040 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 2: twenty sixteen and twenty twenty is that there's a divergence 106 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:45,920 Speaker 2: there has been between the electoral college of the popular vote. 107 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:50,159 Speaker 2: In twenty sixteen and twenty twenty, Democrats were piling up 108 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:54,040 Speaker 2: huge numbers of votes in California and New York and 109 00:06:54,120 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 2: several other states that we could easily name Maryland, Massachusetts, 110 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:01,000 Speaker 2: and so forth, east and West Coast that weren't giving 111 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 2: them any additional electoral votes. I mean, nineteen ninety six, 112 00:07:04,800 --> 00:07:08,840 Speaker 2: Bill Clinton carried California by thirteen points. He got fifty 113 00:07:08,960 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 2: five electoral votes out of that. Twenty years later, Hillary 114 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: Clinton carried it by thirty points. She got fifty five 115 00:07:15,880 --> 00:07:19,080 Speaker 2: electoral votes out of it. Donald Trump won that election 116 00:07:19,240 --> 00:07:23,200 Speaker 2: despite losing the popular vote, by carrying states in that 117 00:07:23,320 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 2: case like Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania by a total of seventy 118 00:07:27,440 --> 00:07:30,840 Speaker 2: seven thousand popular votes. Is that still going to be 119 00:07:30,920 --> 00:07:34,679 Speaker 2: a factor in twenty twenty four. We don't know for sure. 120 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,520 Speaker 2: I mean, The analyst Nate Silver says, well, it's still 121 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 2: a factor, but a little less so than in twenty 122 00:07:41,320 --> 00:07:45,120 Speaker 2: and twenty sixteen. The analyst Sean Trendy, who was one 123 00:07:45,160 --> 00:07:48,600 Speaker 2: of the first analysts back in twenty thirteen to write 124 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:52,000 Speaker 2: about how the white working class vote potentially could be 125 00:07:52,040 --> 00:07:55,920 Speaker 2: shifting heavily towards the Republicans in a way that other 126 00:07:56,000 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 2: analysts really failed to understand, says, well, the electoral college 127 00:08:01,080 --> 00:08:04,120 Speaker 2: advantage may not work as much for Trump this time 128 00:08:04,360 --> 00:08:07,080 Speaker 2: as it worked in the past. I think it's still 129 00:08:07,080 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 2: there to some extent. I think that to some extent 130 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 2: Trump it may be piling up votes in places like 131 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 2: rural Texas, rural North Florida where he's not piling up 132 00:08:17,520 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 2: a lot of popular vote margin, which is not adding 133 00:08:20,600 --> 00:08:23,000 Speaker 2: electoral votes to him. And to the extent that he's 134 00:08:23,040 --> 00:08:27,680 Speaker 2: winning Hispanics and Blacks in states like California and New 135 00:08:27,760 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 2: York which he's not going to carry where he's not 136 00:08:29,720 --> 00:08:33,000 Speaker 2: going to get electoral votes, he may reduce the Democratic 137 00:08:33,080 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 2: margins there from what they were in those previous elections, 138 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:40,440 Speaker 2: So that would tend to even out the or to 139 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 2: reduce his electoral college advantage. But I think that it's 140 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:49,120 Speaker 2: still probably there to some significant extent, and I think 141 00:08:49,160 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 2: those two analysts I mentioned don't disagree with that it's 142 00:08:53,320 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 2: still there. And you begin to wonder, you know, as 143 00:08:56,800 --> 00:09:00,400 Speaker 2: an old political consultant, a why the Republicans don't try 144 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:04,400 Speaker 2: to get more popular votes and win easily with a 145 00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:07,880 Speaker 2: big popular vote margin. And Donald Trump does some things 146 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:11,000 Speaker 2: that I think are not well calculated for that, and 147 00:09:11,120 --> 00:09:14,559 Speaker 2: you have to ask why the Democratic Party doesn't cut 148 00:09:14,640 --> 00:09:18,800 Speaker 2: its losses and cut its wins in perhaps stop pleasing 149 00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 2: all those California left wingers and maybe try to get 150 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:26,720 Speaker 2: a set of issue positions as more palatable in the Midwest, 151 00:09:26,800 --> 00:09:30,120 Speaker 2: in states like Georgia and Arizona which were narrowly what 152 00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:36,520 Speaker 2: last time. Instead, they nominate a San Francisco Democrat who basically, well, 153 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:38,400 Speaker 2: she did come from the East Bay. She lived in 154 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:42,400 Speaker 2: Oakland and Berkeley for a while. She's had staffers say 155 00:09:42,480 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 2: that she no longer stands for a lot of the 156 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,120 Speaker 2: platforms she ran for president on in her twenty twenty 157 00:09:48,400 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 2: candidacy which ended in twenty nineteen, and when she was 158 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,040 Speaker 2: for banning fracking, when she was for getting rid of 159 00:09:55,120 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 2: ice and immigration enforcement, where she was talking about getting 160 00:09:59,200 --> 00:10:04,000 Speaker 2: rid of private health insurance. We've got tweets from anonymous 161 00:10:04,040 --> 00:10:07,360 Speaker 2: staffers saying, well, hey, she's not for those things anymore. 162 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:11,000 Speaker 2: Nobody in the mainstream media has thought to ask her 163 00:10:11,080 --> 00:10:14,560 Speaker 2: questions about are you no longer for those things that 164 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:19,160 Speaker 2: you were so vehemently for, and the perfectly reasonable question of, 165 00:10:19,640 --> 00:10:23,319 Speaker 2: and not on sympathetic question necessarily of you've changed your 166 00:10:23,360 --> 00:10:26,440 Speaker 2: mind on this issue? What prompted you to change your mind? 167 00:10:26,840 --> 00:10:29,360 Speaker 2: What assurance can you give voters that you're going to 168 00:10:29,559 --> 00:10:33,120 Speaker 2: continue to have as president these issues that you now 169 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:51,800 Speaker 2: say that you're not supporting as candidate, given. 170 00:10:51,480 --> 00:10:55,160 Speaker 1: That she's essentially a San Francisco radical trying to work 171 00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:59,240 Speaker 1: her way to the middle, which is a classic traditional position. 172 00:10:59,640 --> 00:11:02,480 Speaker 1: Your party's nomination on the right or left, and then 173 00:11:02,520 --> 00:11:04,839 Speaker 1: you run to the middle if you can. I thought 174 00:11:04,880 --> 00:11:07,520 Speaker 1: picking Tim Watts was an odd choice in that sense, 175 00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,480 Speaker 1: because he's actually further left than she is. 176 00:11:11,000 --> 00:11:13,360 Speaker 2: He's further left than she is. He's kind of the 177 00:11:13,440 --> 00:11:16,760 Speaker 2: town left winger in some small town in the Midwest, 178 00:11:17,080 --> 00:11:20,359 Speaker 2: the small town he grew up in Nebraska, and man Cato, Minnesota, 179 00:11:20,400 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 2: and Blirth County, Blue Earth as we pronounce it. I 180 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:27,480 Speaker 2: think it's more like one syllable for Minnesotan's. She liked 181 00:11:27,520 --> 00:11:31,240 Speaker 2: him at the comfort level, and she didn't take Josh Shapiro, 182 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,880 Speaker 2: the governor Pennsylvania. I just laid out for you how 183 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:38,760 Speaker 2: crucial Pennsylvania is and the fact that it seems to 184 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:41,920 Speaker 2: be a very closely divided state, and it's a state, 185 00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:46,160 Speaker 2: by the way, Newton where her previous opposition to fracking, 186 00:11:46,280 --> 00:11:51,360 Speaker 2: her vehement opposition, her promise to ban all fracking. That's 187 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:55,440 Speaker 2: a real no no. In about sixty three of the 188 00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,280 Speaker 2: sixty seven counties in Pennsylvania, they've been making a good 189 00:11:59,360 --> 00:12:02,760 Speaker 2: living and doing well for America for oil and natural 190 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:06,640 Speaker 2: gas production out of fracking. In Pennsylvania. They don't have 191 00:12:06,679 --> 00:12:10,080 Speaker 2: a left wing democratic legislature like New York does next 192 00:12:10,160 --> 00:12:13,840 Speaker 2: door where they've banned fracking. Pennsylvania has been going to town, 193 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,920 Speaker 2: people have been making good livings and communities which seemed 194 00:12:17,320 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 2: to have been left behind in the post industrial era 195 00:12:21,800 --> 00:12:26,480 Speaker 2: and now they're doing well. And she wanted to stop fracking, 196 00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:29,679 Speaker 2: which was the basis of that kind of a clean 197 00:12:29,880 --> 00:12:34,040 Speaker 2: energy economy. So she's got some real questions to answer there. 198 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 2: And Tim Walls, who seems to have a significant problem 199 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 2: with patting the resume is not ideally situated to get it. 200 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,760 Speaker 2: I have to assume that there's some level of personal 201 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:49,280 Speaker 2: comfort with him, that she thought he was more her 202 00:12:49,480 --> 00:12:52,680 Speaker 2: kind of person. I think there will be an interesting 203 00:12:52,760 --> 00:12:56,640 Speaker 2: story to tell someday about that selection. Perhaps she will 204 00:12:56,679 --> 00:12:59,559 Speaker 2: come to think as John Kerrey, the two thousand and 205 00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 2: four Democratic nominee, came to think that his selection of 206 00:13:03,280 --> 00:13:08,000 Speaker 2: a vice presidential nominee, then North Carolina Senator John Edwards, 207 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 2: was kind of a mistake. 208 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:12,600 Speaker 1: I think when you lose, you always think it's the 209 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:15,600 Speaker 1: vice president, and when you win, you're sure had nothing 210 00:13:15,640 --> 00:13:18,840 Speaker 1: to do with it. I have to say Mark Tayson 211 00:13:18,840 --> 00:13:21,160 Speaker 1: had a very interesting comment this morning in his column. 212 00:13:21,679 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 1: He said, only one vice president while sitting has won 213 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: the presidency in one hundred and eighty eight years, and 214 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:34,400 Speaker 1: that was George harro Walker Bush. He describes it to 215 00:13:34,480 --> 00:13:38,400 Speaker 1: the pea country wanted a third Reagan term and suggests 216 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,239 Speaker 1: that nobody wants a second Biden Harris term. 217 00:13:41,880 --> 00:13:45,599 Speaker 2: Well, I think that's right. We've had several vice presidents 218 00:13:45,640 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 2: who've gone on to run for president. Martin van Buren, 219 00:13:49,040 --> 00:13:53,280 Speaker 2: who established the first Democratic National Convention in eighteen thirty two. 220 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:58,560 Speaker 2: He was copying the Anti Masonic Party. He was elected President. 221 00:13:58,679 --> 00:14:02,480 Speaker 2: Jackson was a popular resident. You had Richard Nixon as 222 00:14:02,480 --> 00:14:07,080 Speaker 2: the sitting vice president. Nineteen sixty narrowly loses, representing a 223 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 2: very popular president, President Eisenhower. He gets rounded off fifty 224 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,400 Speaker 2: percent of the popular vote, as does his opponent, not 225 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:17,480 Speaker 2: quite enough to win. Al Gore in two thousand carries 226 00:14:17,520 --> 00:14:22,280 Speaker 2: the popular vote, narrowly loses. The Electoral College loses Florida 227 00:14:22,360 --> 00:14:27,040 Speaker 2: by and adjudicated five hundred and thirty seven votes. George H. W. 228 00:14:27,200 --> 00:14:29,960 Speaker 2: Bush wins by what turned out to be a comfortable 229 00:14:30,040 --> 00:14:33,240 Speaker 2: margin with fifty three point four percent of the vote. 230 00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:35,800 Speaker 2: That's the closest thing to a landslide, by the way, 231 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,000 Speaker 2: that we've had since that time in nineteen eighty eight. 232 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:43,640 Speaker 2: We don't have landslides anymore. We're partly a polarized country. 233 00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 2: And I think the other reason we don't have landslides 234 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 2: anymore because we had an electorate that had experienced the 235 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:55,000 Speaker 2: Great Depression, that experienced World War Two, which changed so 236 00:14:55,120 --> 00:14:59,320 Speaker 2: many people's lives in so many ways, those big upheavals, 237 00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 2: and when they got president who seemed to produce prosperity, 238 00:15:02,880 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 2: and who seemed to produce peace. They would cross usual 239 00:15:06,680 --> 00:15:10,120 Speaker 2: party lines and vote for that president. They often wouldn't 240 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 2: vote for other candidates of his party, but they'd vote 241 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 2: for that president. Again, we saw it with Eisenhower in 242 00:15:16,400 --> 00:15:21,720 Speaker 2: fifty six, Johnson representing the Kennedy Johnson administration in sixty four, 243 00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:25,560 Speaker 2: Nixon in seventy two, Ronald Reagan the last one in 244 00:15:25,640 --> 00:15:28,800 Speaker 2: eighty four. Maybe with echoes of that for the first 245 00:15:28,840 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 2: George Bush in nineteen eighty eight, but at that point 246 00:15:32,360 --> 00:15:36,200 Speaker 2: we ceased to have an electorate that had a substantial 247 00:15:36,280 --> 00:15:39,320 Speaker 2: number of voters who remembered the Great Depression, who had 248 00:15:39,360 --> 00:15:43,440 Speaker 2: personal memories of World War Two. Obviously we don't have 249 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:47,920 Speaker 2: an electorate of that kind anymore. So we're not getting landslides, 250 00:15:48,120 --> 00:15:51,520 Speaker 2: and we're not getting anything even like George H. W. 251 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:55,040 Speaker 2: Bush's fifty three point four percent of the vote against 252 00:15:55,080 --> 00:15:58,600 Speaker 2: Michael Dukakis after being seventeen points behind. 253 00:15:59,400 --> 00:16:02,920 Speaker 1: You mentioned the white working class and the degree to 254 00:16:02,960 --> 00:16:07,280 Speaker 1: which it's gradually migrated away from the Democrats, and where 255 00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:10,640 Speaker 1: Trump in that sense is kind of a remarkable figure 256 00:16:10,680 --> 00:16:14,480 Speaker 1: who is a billionaire who appeals to people who are 257 00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:19,080 Speaker 1: dramatically different economically but share a common culture. But what 258 00:16:19,120 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 1: I've been struck by is you're beginning to see with 259 00:16:21,800 --> 00:16:26,360 Speaker 1: Latinos and African Americans in the working class level, a 260 00:16:26,480 --> 00:16:31,080 Speaker 1: similar shift towards Trump. Even with Kamala Harris on the ticket, 261 00:16:31,560 --> 00:16:34,960 Speaker 1: I suspect Trump will get a much higher percentage of 262 00:16:35,040 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 1: Black male votes than any Republican maybe since Eisenhower. 263 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,400 Speaker 2: That appears to be the case. Certainly with the Trump 264 00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 2: Biden pairings showed Trump doing better among Black voters than 265 00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:53,480 Speaker 2: previous voters. And you know, black voters have been semi 266 00:16:53,600 --> 00:16:57,760 Speaker 2: unanimously for Democratic candidates ever since very Goldwater voted against 267 00:16:57,760 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 2: the Civil Rights Act in nineteen six. Well, people of 268 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 2: our particular generation have to remember that was sixty years ago, 269 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,280 Speaker 2: and maybe that's just not so relevant for a lot 270 00:17:09,280 --> 00:17:13,040 Speaker 2: of black voters anymore. We do not have Jim Crow 271 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 2: in the South, despite what various Black leaders and Democratic 272 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,560 Speaker 2: politicians are saying, we're not going back to that kind 273 00:17:20,600 --> 00:17:25,320 Speaker 2: of segregation, which you, as a Southern Republican opposed. Eventually, 274 00:17:25,400 --> 00:17:29,120 Speaker 2: people in a subgroup that is voting unanimously for one 275 00:17:29,200 --> 00:17:32,679 Speaker 2: side for historic reasons come to see other issues is 276 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:36,639 Speaker 2: more important. We're certainly seeing that with Hispanics where you 277 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 2: see the non college educated Hispanic vote may be going 278 00:17:41,040 --> 00:17:45,000 Speaker 2: for the Democrats by single digits, maybe going fifty to 279 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,119 Speaker 2: fifty in some cases. And that's going to make a 280 00:17:48,160 --> 00:17:53,200 Speaker 2: difference in California Central Valley congressional districts, for example. It's 281 00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:56,080 Speaker 2: going to make a difference in a wide variety of 282 00:17:56,200 --> 00:17:59,640 Speaker 2: areas Wheneck County, Georgia. It's going to make a difference. 283 00:18:00,040 --> 00:18:03,560 Speaker 2: It's going to make difference in various places in North Carolina, 284 00:18:03,680 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 2: Northern Virginia, and so forth. It's kind of a quiet 285 00:18:06,520 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 2: vote because it doesn't have media spokesmen who are coming 286 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:15,159 Speaker 2: on from the left wing who are vibrantly persuading that 287 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,879 Speaker 2: they're more oppressed than ever and they've got to vote 288 00:18:17,880 --> 00:18:20,800 Speaker 2: this way. They've got to vote left wing, or they've 289 00:18:20,800 --> 00:18:25,320 Speaker 2: got to rebel against the current status quo, or their 290 00:18:25,320 --> 00:18:28,479 Speaker 2: rebellion against the status quo is a rebellion against what 291 00:18:28,560 --> 00:18:33,520 Speaker 2: they consider to be inflation illegal immigration. Turns out, not 292 00:18:33,600 --> 00:18:37,440 Speaker 2: all Hispanics are saying, well, gee, we really want more 293 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:43,480 Speaker 2: illegal immigration to the contrary, So this is an interesting development, 294 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,399 Speaker 2: and it's part of a trend that's been a parent 295 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,960 Speaker 2: for a while. When you became a Speaker of the 296 00:18:48,960 --> 00:18:52,400 Speaker 2: House in nineteen ninety four. One of the things I 297 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:55,919 Speaker 2: noticed is that Republicans carried a lot of the affluent 298 00:18:56,359 --> 00:19:01,840 Speaker 2: districts then that are hopelessly democratic. Now those districts have 299 00:19:01,960 --> 00:19:05,320 Speaker 2: been out of reach for Republicans for a while. But also, 300 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:10,280 Speaker 2: I remember when you were the only Republican Congressman from Georgia, 301 00:19:11,200 --> 00:19:16,240 Speaker 2: when Georgia had ten congressmen. Your district was partly rural Georgia, 302 00:19:16,320 --> 00:19:20,119 Speaker 2: Carroll County and so forth, Anon in Georgia and partly 303 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 2: Kaweda County and partly going into Metro Atlanta. And all 304 00:19:24,760 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 2: those rural, small town districts in Georgia were electing Democrats. 305 00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:33,479 Speaker 2: That ain't the case anymore. We're looking at a change 306 00:19:33,480 --> 00:19:36,080 Speaker 2: that started in the nineties. You did a lot to 307 00:19:36,119 --> 00:19:39,800 Speaker 2: start that. I remember you predicting in the nineteen eighties. 308 00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:43,080 Speaker 2: You said, look, the Republicans are going to do better 309 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:46,199 Speaker 2: in the South because these old Southern Democrats that have 310 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 2: been there since the nineteen fifties, sixties, and seventies, someday 311 00:19:50,160 --> 00:19:53,000 Speaker 2: they're going to retire, and their districts have been voting 312 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,320 Speaker 2: Republican for president, except maybe when Jimmy Carter was on 313 00:19:56,440 --> 00:20:00,240 Speaker 2: the ballot. They're going to vote Republican for congressmen. We've 314 00:20:00,280 --> 00:20:04,280 Speaker 2: got some young Watergate era Democrats that have won those districts. 315 00:20:04,320 --> 00:20:07,560 Speaker 2: They're politically adept, they're going to run for other officer. 316 00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 2: We're going to take them out some year. That's a 317 00:20:09,560 --> 00:20:12,879 Speaker 2: pretty good year for Republicans, and that that's going to 318 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:17,560 Speaker 2: change the political landscape of the House of Representatives and 319 00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 2: of the bounce in the presidential race. And indeed it 320 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:24,720 Speaker 2: has come to pass. You are joining in effect the 321 00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:32,200 Speaker 2: eminent mid twentieth century political scientist Ee Schattschneider. Schatschneider wrote 322 00:20:32,280 --> 00:20:35,480 Speaker 2: all these articles about how it would be much more 323 00:20:35,600 --> 00:20:40,760 Speaker 2: rational in America if we had one obviously liberal political 324 00:20:40,800 --> 00:20:45,639 Speaker 2: party and one obviously conservative political party. This idea of 325 00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:49,560 Speaker 2: conservative Southern Democrats who are staying with the Democratic Party 326 00:20:49,640 --> 00:20:53,479 Speaker 2: because of the Civil War, or liberal Republicans who are 327 00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:57,479 Speaker 2: staying that way because they opposed the industrial labor unions 328 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 2: in the nineteen thirties, they were based on obsolete history, 329 00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:05,440 Speaker 2: and you ought to separate into political parties. And your 330 00:21:05,600 --> 00:21:09,400 Speaker 2: one time colleague or predecessor in the House. Richard Bowling 331 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 2: of Missouri wrote books about how the Democratic party should 332 00:21:13,359 --> 00:21:16,760 Speaker 2: become a clearly liberal party to use all those votes 333 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:19,560 Speaker 2: from those conservative Southerners force them to vote for the 334 00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,760 Speaker 2: liberal policies and things. The Schatzschneider writes, I think most 335 00:21:23,760 --> 00:21:26,000 Speaker 2: of them were pretty confident if you had one liberal 336 00:21:26,040 --> 00:21:29,240 Speaker 2: party and one conservative party, the liberals would win most 337 00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:32,840 Speaker 2: of the time, which is something they wanted to see. Well, 338 00:21:32,960 --> 00:21:37,280 Speaker 2: mister Schatzschneider has gone, but his dream, his prayers have 339 00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:42,199 Speaker 2: been answered. We have two political parties divided partly on 340 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:46,320 Speaker 2: economic issues, but a lot on cultural issues and basic 341 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:51,359 Speaker 2: cultural standpoints. And that's the evolution that's taken place. And 342 00:21:51,400 --> 00:21:54,600 Speaker 2: as you said, you certainly started in the nineteen nineties 343 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:59,400 Speaker 2: when Bill Clinton began running better in the big metropolitan 344 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:03,280 Speaker 2: areas than Democrats had before. But when you and House 345 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:08,360 Speaker 2: Republicans were capturing a lot of those not high income southern, 346 00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,680 Speaker 2: rural Midwestern districts and so forth that I had been 347 00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:15,560 Speaker 2: voting Republican for president but not for Congress, it started. 348 00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 2: Donald Trump accelerated that trend, and we're seeing it work 349 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,880 Speaker 2: out today. It is still with us. It has left 350 00:22:22,920 --> 00:22:26,880 Speaker 2: the two parties pretty closely balanced, and both of them. 351 00:22:27,359 --> 00:22:30,640 Speaker 2: One of the reasons why we haven't seen the kind 352 00:22:30,640 --> 00:22:35,240 Speaker 2: of legislative compromise and cooperation that you, as Speaker, were 353 00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:39,240 Speaker 2: able to do with President Bill Clinton. Put two would 354 00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:43,760 Speaker 2: be intellectual baby boomers in a room with policy ideas 355 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,720 Speaker 2: and let them go at it with both of your 356 00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:48,920 Speaker 2: staffers on both sides, nervous about what you guys would 357 00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:54,480 Speaker 2: agree to. That produced some significant legislative achievements on welfare 358 00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 2: and riscal balance, a budget and so forth that are 359 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:02,320 Speaker 2: difficult to achieve today because the parties are so easily balanced. 360 00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,560 Speaker 2: They both dream of the trifecta. They both dream of 361 00:23:06,600 --> 00:23:10,520 Speaker 2: getting the presidency, the Senate, and the House, And in fact, 362 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,399 Speaker 2: in recent times that has happened. The Republicans got that 363 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,760 Speaker 2: in two thousand and four, Democrats got it in two 364 00:23:17,800 --> 00:23:21,760 Speaker 2: thousand and eight. Republicans had it briefly and by narrow 365 00:23:21,840 --> 00:23:26,520 Speaker 2: margins in twenty sixteen. Democrats had it by even narrower 366 00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:30,520 Speaker 2: margins in twenty twenty, and both parties are thinking about 367 00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 2: it now. You know, you've got the Democrats musing about 368 00:23:34,040 --> 00:23:37,560 Speaker 2: the idea of, well, if we just avoid losing more 369 00:23:37,600 --> 00:23:40,800 Speaker 2: than that one Senate seat in West Virginia, maybe we 370 00:23:40,960 --> 00:23:45,160 Speaker 2: can pack the Supreme Court with President Harris and Speaker 371 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:50,920 Speaker 2: Pelosis in Staale Hakim Jefferies winning a House majority, and 372 00:23:51,440 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 2: those are possible things, although it's kind of a stretch 373 00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,440 Speaker 2: to think they're only going to lose one Senate seat 374 00:23:56,520 --> 00:24:00,000 Speaker 2: given the lineup of Senate races. And you've got Republicans 375 00:24:00,359 --> 00:24:03,680 Speaker 2: thinking about a trifect as well, Well, we've got a 376 00:24:03,720 --> 00:24:06,520 Speaker 2: good chance to pick up a Senate majority. They think 377 00:24:06,800 --> 00:24:09,800 Speaker 2: President Trump has a good chance to win the election, 378 00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 2: as we've been discussing, nothing like an assured victory. You 379 00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,600 Speaker 2: got a fifty percent chance of winning it. If it's 380 00:24:16,640 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 2: a fifty percent race, and the House of Representatives, well, 381 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,400 Speaker 2: Republicans have a majority, and maybe they're going to increase 382 00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:27,400 Speaker 2: that majority. So both parties do that, you don't get 383 00:24:27,480 --> 00:24:30,800 Speaker 2: much compromise in the interim. If both parties think that 384 00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:33,320 Speaker 2: they're going to get a trifecta in the next election, 385 00:24:33,880 --> 00:24:36,600 Speaker 2: they'll say, why should I settle for half a loaf now, 386 00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 2: particularly if the other side writes the fine print and 387 00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:41,880 Speaker 2: I don't even get half a loaf when I can 388 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 2: get a whole loaf maybe after the next presidential election. 389 00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:48,520 Speaker 2: Does that analysis makes sense to you? 390 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,879 Speaker 1: That is part of what's happening. I also think, in 391 00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: a funny way, the two parties have moved further apart 392 00:24:55,240 --> 00:24:57,760 Speaker 1: by having all the liberals in one room talking to 393 00:24:57,800 --> 00:25:01,640 Speaker 1: themselves and conservatives in one room to themselves. The gap 394 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:04,280 Speaker 1: you have to cross in order to get to a 395 00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,440 Speaker 1: deal is much wider than it was in the nineteen nineties. 396 00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:10,200 Speaker 1: But you know, I have to ask you one question, 397 00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:12,520 Speaker 1: just because you're in many ways you're much more of 398 00:25:12,560 --> 00:25:16,200 Speaker 1: a historian than a political scientist, and you put these 399 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 1: things in a context. Were you surprised when Biden decided 400 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:21,760 Speaker 1: not to run for reelection. 401 00:25:23,240 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 2: I was modestly surprised. Yes, I was. I thought he 402 00:25:26,240 --> 00:25:30,159 Speaker 2: would stick in there. I think that Nancy Pelosi and 403 00:25:30,240 --> 00:25:33,960 Speaker 2: Barack Obama, the first president in one hundred years to 404 00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:38,480 Speaker 2: stick around Washington after he left the White House, was 405 00:25:38,600 --> 00:25:42,280 Speaker 2: probably putting the ice pick in his ribs and basically 406 00:25:42,320 --> 00:25:45,360 Speaker 2: telling him, at least what I've seen attributed to Pelosi, 407 00:25:45,440 --> 00:25:47,320 Speaker 2: you know, we can do this the easy way or 408 00:25:47,320 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 2: the hard way. The easy way is the way we're 409 00:25:49,520 --> 00:25:51,919 Speaker 2: doing it now. The hard way as we do it 410 00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 2: next week. And I say, you're an incompetent, senile person 411 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:58,320 Speaker 2: and you have to leave. Which way do you want 412 00:25:58,359 --> 00:26:02,240 Speaker 2: to go presidency? You got there. I wouldn't want a 413 00:26:02,320 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 2: niche in history. I wouldn't want to see anything happen 414 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:09,320 Speaker 2: to it. And remember, Nancy Pelosi is from San Francisco, 415 00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 2: but her political roots are in Baltimore. It's a little 416 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,520 Speaker 2: bit of a rough town politically. It was a two 417 00:26:15,560 --> 00:26:18,080 Speaker 2: party town for a while when her father was a 418 00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:22,159 Speaker 2: Democratic mayor. For some years there was also Republican mayors 419 00:26:22,320 --> 00:26:27,560 Speaker 2: like Theodore R. Mckelden got black voters, Tommy Dallassandra, and 420 00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:31,919 Speaker 2: Nancy Pelosi's father got the Italian and Irish voters. So 421 00:26:32,600 --> 00:26:36,520 Speaker 2: that was an old fashioned politics. She's eighty four years old, 422 00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 2: she's old enough to remember that kind of politics and 423 00:26:40,920 --> 00:26:45,560 Speaker 2: well as a person that's partly of Italian indeed Sicilian descent. 424 00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:48,720 Speaker 2: I'm not going to go any farther in to suggesting 425 00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:52,520 Speaker 2: what she may have observed within the Italian American community 426 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,760 Speaker 2: in Baltimore, from which she sprang and which she has 427 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:56,720 Speaker 2: fond memories. 428 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:01,199 Speaker 1: There's a terrific movie called The Offer, which is the 429 00:27:01,240 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 1: making of the Godfather. It's really really well done, and 430 00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,639 Speaker 1: it's based, of course, on that one line. I'm going 431 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:10,760 Speaker 1: to make you an offer you can't refuse. And I 432 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:14,000 Speaker 1: think there was probably a magic moment when they made 433 00:27:14,040 --> 00:27:18,160 Speaker 1: Biden an offer and he figured out, or more importantly, 434 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:21,879 Speaker 1: Joe figured out they couldn't refuse it. I thought he 435 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:24,760 Speaker 1: would hang in until the pressure just began to be 436 00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:28,000 Speaker 1: so obvious and so powerful. But I have to say 437 00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: Klista and I were in Rome for the Trump Biden 438 00:27:32,000 --> 00:27:33,800 Speaker 1: debate and we actually got up at like three in 439 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:37,840 Speaker 1: the morning to watch it live, and it was so 440 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 1: staggering to watch. I mean, Biden just seemed like he 441 00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,800 Speaker 1: wasn't there. I don't know what your reaction to debate was, 442 00:27:44,840 --> 00:27:47,640 Speaker 1: but I tuned in as a good partisan thinking boy 443 00:27:47,920 --> 00:27:50,240 Speaker 1: if we could get two or three mistakes out of Biden. 444 00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,480 Speaker 1: But we got ninety minutes out of him. He never 445 00:27:53,840 --> 00:27:56,119 Speaker 1: was able to fully engage. 446 00:27:56,359 --> 00:28:00,720 Speaker 2: Well, you know, we're of roughly the same generation, and 447 00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 2: people's declines in their health and in their capacity to 448 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,720 Speaker 2: do this kind of public speaking can decline fairly. Suddenly. 449 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:15,520 Speaker 2: Was Biden in this bad of shape in twenty twenty two? 450 00:28:15,640 --> 00:28:19,439 Speaker 2: I think the answer is not did he just have 451 00:28:19,520 --> 00:28:22,200 Speaker 2: a bad night. No, I think he had obviously been 452 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 2: in some decline. So this is one of the factors 453 00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:27,439 Speaker 2: we have to live with. You know, if you go 454 00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 2: back and read the history of World War Two, you 455 00:28:30,520 --> 00:28:35,560 Speaker 2: see a lot of the leaders drop dead. Military leaders 456 00:28:35,600 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 2: in this and that, or like John McCain's grandfather, an 457 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:43,840 Speaker 2: admiral in that war, retires in nineteen forty six after 458 00:28:43,920 --> 00:28:47,720 Speaker 2: a grueling career in the Pacific theater, and he sits 459 00:28:47,760 --> 00:28:50,959 Speaker 2: down in an easy chair and drops dead. President Roosevelt 460 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:55,520 Speaker 2: dies at age sixty three after a cardiac event your 461 00:28:55,640 --> 00:28:59,080 Speaker 2: previous I've read somewhere that he had. His blood pressure 462 00:28:59,240 --> 00:29:03,320 Speaker 2: was three over onein eighty My interness tells me that 463 00:29:03,360 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 2: anybody in that condition today, his recommendation would be immediate hospitalization. 464 00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 2: People can just decline. And one of the points the 465 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,360 Speaker 2: Democrats have made is, hey, Donald Trump this year is 466 00:29:15,440 --> 00:29:18,800 Speaker 2: the same age that Joe Biden wasn't this time in 467 00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 2: the cycle four years ago, which is true. Now Donald 468 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:27,040 Speaker 2: Trump seems to be very much still with it and 469 00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:31,720 Speaker 2: capable of responding and making arguments and things. But I 470 00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 2: saw a clip the other day of an interview he 471 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 2: did on Oprah Winfrey Show in nineteen eighty eight, which 472 00:29:38,080 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 2: is a time he would have been at forty two 473 00:29:40,840 --> 00:29:45,480 Speaker 2: years old and he was faster, he was more articulate, 474 00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:50,840 Speaker 2: he was smoother in his presentation then, if anything, even 475 00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 2: more self assured, although he had not yet been elected 476 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:57,440 Speaker 2: President of the United States, was thinking about it and 477 00:29:57,520 --> 00:30:01,680 Speaker 2: so forth than he is today at age. Can I 478 00:30:01,760 --> 00:30:04,760 Speaker 2: do all the things physically that I did forty years ago? 479 00:30:04,920 --> 00:30:05,880 Speaker 2: Not necessarily? 480 00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,280 Speaker 1: One last topic one as good. We're currently in the 481 00:30:24,880 --> 00:30:29,640 Speaker 1: debate about the debates. Given the general pattern, do you 482 00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:31,400 Speaker 1: think it really makes that much difference? 483 00:30:32,840 --> 00:30:35,680 Speaker 2: Well, I think the June twenty seventh debate certainly made 484 00:30:35,680 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 2: some difference, and probably more so than any political debate 485 00:30:39,200 --> 00:30:41,640 Speaker 2: that we remember of all time. I mean, you know, 486 00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:45,240 Speaker 2: it's generally thought that then Vice President Nixon lost the 487 00:30:45,320 --> 00:30:48,040 Speaker 2: nineteen sixty debate, but if you go back and watch 488 00:30:48,680 --> 00:30:53,080 Speaker 2: the television or the audio tape of it, Nixon performed 489 00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:56,640 Speaker 2: very ably in that debate, as did Kennedy. With Kennedy 490 00:30:56,680 --> 00:31:00,000 Speaker 2: had greater charm, I think, but they're both highly competent 491 00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:04,160 Speaker 2: people in their forties at that time. I think it 492 00:31:04,200 --> 00:31:07,440 Speaker 2: can make a fair amount of difference. It's interesting that 493 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,480 Speaker 2: the Democrats initially said, well, you've got a debate in 494 00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 2: the same format, the same channel, with the same network, 495 00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,959 Speaker 2: ABC that you had agreed to President Biden in and 496 00:31:17,960 --> 00:31:20,920 Speaker 2: Trump said, well, maybe not, and then he said, well, 497 00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,960 Speaker 2: maybe I'll do it. And then the Democrats said, yeah, 498 00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 2: but the ground rules have to be different because we 499 00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,120 Speaker 2: want to change it. Well, you know, that's one of 500 00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:33,320 Speaker 2: those process arguments, you know, saying well, we're going to 501 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,840 Speaker 2: change the process and so forth. I have an old 502 00:31:35,960 --> 00:31:38,720 Speaker 2: saying that I've developed in covering politics, which is that 503 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:43,680 Speaker 2: all process arguments are insincere, including this one. Both the 504 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 2: Democrats and the Republicans are making insincere arguments, and we'll 505 00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 2: see how they come down to on debates. But I'm 506 00:31:51,440 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 2: also looking forward to the advanced Waltz debate. Vice president 507 00:31:56,480 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 2: debates don't get as much attention as they should. Sometimes 508 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:04,440 Speaker 2: they signal something has changed. I remember the nineteen ninety 509 00:32:04,520 --> 00:32:09,880 Speaker 2: two debate between incumbent Vice President Dan Quayle and Senator 510 00:32:09,960 --> 00:32:13,160 Speaker 2: then later Vice President Al Gore. It was the first 511 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:17,640 Speaker 2: baby boomer debate. It was a Rockham Sockham debate, and 512 00:32:17,720 --> 00:32:20,960 Speaker 2: they just savaged each other and went at it like crazy. 513 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 2: Neither of them, interestingly, is a factor in the debate 514 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:27,560 Speaker 2: this year, but neither of them seems to want to 515 00:32:27,600 --> 00:32:31,920 Speaker 2: play a part in national politics, which is certainly their prerogative. 516 00:32:32,360 --> 00:32:36,120 Speaker 2: They can claim to have served constructively as vice president. 517 00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:39,000 Speaker 2: I think in each case that sort of style, I 518 00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,080 Speaker 2: think it'll be interesting. Wallace has stated a whole bunch 519 00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:45,080 Speaker 2: of things that just turn out to be untrue or 520 00:32:45,160 --> 00:32:49,720 Speaker 2: allowed to be stated. Misstating his army rank, misstating the 521 00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:53,600 Speaker 2: form of fertility treatments that he and his wife had, 522 00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 2: He misstated when he was running for Congress in two 523 00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:58,560 Speaker 2: thousand and six, had it said he had been given 524 00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:03,920 Speaker 2: an award by the Nebraska Chamber of Commerce. He'd grown 525 00:33:04,000 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 2: up in Nebraska, and I thought the fertility argument the 526 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:13,040 Speaker 2: Walls has had IUI treatment not IVF IVF would have 527 00:33:13,040 --> 00:33:16,160 Speaker 2: given him a political talking point. But maybe he just 528 00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:21,800 Speaker 2: got those confused. The military position, he was applying basically 529 00:33:21,880 --> 00:33:24,840 Speaker 2: for a military position, holding it temporarily, but did not 530 00:33:24,960 --> 00:33:29,440 Speaker 2: complete the requirements when he retired from the reserve status 531 00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:32,040 Speaker 2: as he was entitled to do. So you can say, well, 532 00:33:32,040 --> 00:33:34,800 Speaker 2: he just made mistakes there. How do you make up 533 00:33:34,880 --> 00:33:37,400 Speaker 2: out of thin air that you got a Nebraska Chamber 534 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,600 Speaker 2: of Commerce award when you never did. What kind of 535 00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 2: mindset was there? Some award that he had somewhere that 536 00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,720 Speaker 2: suggested that, and he maybe embellished or changed it. I 537 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,320 Speaker 2: don't have the answer to that question. Plus, why would 538 00:33:52,320 --> 00:33:55,160 Speaker 2: you think when you're running for Congress from Minnesota that 539 00:33:55,240 --> 00:33:58,200 Speaker 2: you got a Nebraska Chamber of Commerce award would be 540 00:33:58,240 --> 00:34:02,160 Speaker 2: a really killer argument for your election. 541 00:34:02,760 --> 00:34:06,360 Speaker 1: It's a little bit like he apparently was a volunteer 542 00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,200 Speaker 1: offensive coach who was never the coach. But of course, 543 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:13,760 Speaker 1: if you watch Kamala refers to him constantly as coach 544 00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:17,480 Speaker 1: because they want to communicate he's just one of us. 545 00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:18,919 Speaker 1: He's an everyday kind of guy. 546 00:34:20,040 --> 00:34:22,200 Speaker 2: It reminds me of the way the proper way to 547 00:34:22,280 --> 00:34:25,920 Speaker 2: address a person who has been lieutenant governor but was 548 00:34:26,000 --> 00:34:29,400 Speaker 2: never governor of the state. The proper way to address 549 00:34:29,440 --> 00:34:32,040 Speaker 2: them is his governor. And I have done that with 550 00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,960 Speaker 2: a number of former lieutenant governors at both parties, and 551 00:34:35,000 --> 00:34:37,239 Speaker 2: I can report to you that when you say that 552 00:34:37,320 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 2: to them, their faces light up. I'm with you. 553 00:34:42,239 --> 00:34:46,640 Speaker 1: I think that actually those two guys have totally different 554 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:50,400 Speaker 1: set of talents. But watching the two Wilson jd Vance 555 00:34:50,440 --> 00:34:53,400 Speaker 1: debate maybe one of the more interesting periods of the 556 00:34:53,440 --> 00:34:57,320 Speaker 1: whole campaign, because they bring very different set of skills. 557 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:01,200 Speaker 1: Both of them will be very aggressive by them. 558 00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:05,799 Speaker 2: They've both been unafraid to be provocative, which can be 559 00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:10,319 Speaker 2: a high risk characteristic. As you may have reflected occasionally 560 00:35:10,360 --> 00:35:11,520 Speaker 2: in your career. 561 00:35:11,960 --> 00:35:14,520 Speaker 1: I have thought about trying to be provocative, but I've 562 00:35:14,560 --> 00:35:19,520 Speaker 1: never quite gotten around to it. As you know. Listen, Michael, 563 00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:22,320 Speaker 1: I'm an enormous fan of yours. I think of you 564 00:35:22,360 --> 00:35:25,040 Speaker 1: as a personal friend as well as a colleague in 565 00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:29,319 Speaker 1: this almost half century journey trying to understand the American system. 566 00:35:29,640 --> 00:35:32,040 Speaker 1: The fact that you would be willing to talk to 567 00:35:32,120 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 1: us from Amsterdam, I am deeply in your debt. I 568 00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:37,920 Speaker 1: want to thank you for joining me at your latest book, 569 00:35:38,520 --> 00:35:42,480 Speaker 1: Mental Maps of the Founders, our geographic imagination guide to 570 00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:46,600 Speaker 1: America's revolutionary leaders. It's a great read. It's available now 571 00:35:46,640 --> 00:35:50,560 Speaker 1: in Amazon, It's in bookstores everywhere, and also our listeners 572 00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:55,000 Speaker 1: can follow your work at Washington Examiner dot com. Thank 573 00:35:55,040 --> 00:35:56,520 Speaker 1: you very very much for joining us. 574 00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:58,760 Speaker 2: Okay, thank you, mister speaker. 575 00:36:02,560 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 1: Thank you to my guest, Michael Barone. You can get 576 00:36:05,040 --> 00:36:07,799 Speaker 1: a link to buy his book, Mental Maps to the 577 00:36:07,800 --> 00:36:11,920 Speaker 1: Founders on our show page at newtsworld dot com. Newts 578 00:36:11,920 --> 00:36:16,239 Speaker 1: World is produced by GINGRICHH Three sixty and iHeartMedia. Our 579 00:36:16,280 --> 00:36:20,920 Speaker 1: executive producer is Guarnsey Sloan. Our researcher is Rachel Peterson. 580 00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:24,760 Speaker 1: The artwork for the show was created by Steve Penley. 581 00:36:25,600 --> 00:36:28,520 Speaker 1: Special thanks to the team at Gingrish three sixty. If 582 00:36:28,560 --> 00:36:31,240 Speaker 1: you've been enjoying Newtsworld, I hope you'll go to Apple 583 00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:34,879 Speaker 1: Podcasts and both rate us with five stars and give 584 00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:38,040 Speaker 1: us a review so others can learn what it's all about. 585 00:36:38,760 --> 00:36:41,400 Speaker 1: Right now, listeners of Newtsworld can sign up from my 586 00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:47,400 Speaker 1: three freeweekly columns at gingristree sixty dot com slash newsletter. 587 00:36:47,800 --> 00:37:01,440 Speaker 1: I'm Newt Gingrich. This is Newtsworld.