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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast. It's good without further ado.

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Speaker 2: That's what the game's all about.

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Speaker 1: All of a sudden, you feel like you can't miss

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna leave it up there.

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Speaker 3: If you try that again.

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Speaker 4: Absolutely, Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, NBA edition. Second

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Speaker 4: show this week, getting you set for the weekend in

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Speaker 4: the NBA Playoffs. After a wild Thursday night that saw

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Speaker 4: the collapse of the Lakers New Dynasty and uh the

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Speaker 4: exit of the Portland Trailblazers as they were unable to

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Speaker 4: defeat a team with only two of their top five guards.

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Speaker 4: So that's something to talk about on this show today,

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Speaker 4: presented by Bett MGM, the official odds provider of the

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Speaker 4: Action Network Podcast. The biggest thing we're gonna talk about

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Speaker 4: today is is nets Bucks. That's we all agree why

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Speaker 4: this series is a big deal. I have a huge

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Speaker 4: article out on Action Network that talks about what this

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Speaker 4: series mean, and we'll get to that in the course

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Speaker 4: of this episode. We'll also touch on the other series

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Speaker 4: and we'll get you sat with some futures bets about

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Speaker 4: where we are in this weird new landscape where there's

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Speaker 4: no Warriors to bet on, there's no Lakers to bet On.

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Speaker 4: It's weird. It's weird, fellas, We're in a weird world

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Speaker 4: right now. But let's go ahead and go back to

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Speaker 4: last night real quick. So like, look, it's gonna be

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Speaker 4: very easy to dance on Lebron's playoff grave losing for

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Speaker 4: the first time in the first round.

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Speaker 2: Everything's coming up. Lakers.

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Speaker 1: Davis got hurt, which is not surprising.

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Speaker 4: You can't have watched Anthony Davis' career be surprised, Like

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Speaker 4: it was more surprising that he didn't get hurt last year.

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Speaker 1: If we're gonna be real, there's a lot of.

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Speaker 4: Like things we can say that happen at the same time.

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Speaker 4: And I think all of these things are true. The

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Speaker 4: Lakers retooled in a way that did not work out.

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Speaker 4: They took bets on Dennis Schroeder that did not work out.

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Speaker 4: They took bets on Mark as Salt that worked out,

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Speaker 4: but for some reason they decided that it didn't work

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Speaker 4: out well enough, so they brought in Andre Drummond.

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Speaker 1: That did not work out. They've been a lot.

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Speaker 4: On Thcht, which I thought was really dumb, Like he

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Speaker 4: was pretty good last night in the fourth quarter when

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Speaker 4: they were trying to make the comeback. But in general

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Speaker 4: THD it's just like maybe next year he'll be that guy.

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Speaker 4: Would be surprising to me, but possible. But ultimately, like, look,

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Speaker 4: this is a top heavy team. It was designed this way,

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Speaker 4: like the teams GM and team president Rich Paul designed

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Speaker 4: this team so that it would be top heavy with

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Speaker 4: his two guys Lebron and Ad and then built it

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Speaker 4: around mostly clutch guys. And you know, maybe you should

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Speaker 4: get guys from other agencies. That might be a thing

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Speaker 4: that you might want to consider in the future, But

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Speaker 4: ultimately it just comes down to, like Brandon, once Davi's

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Speaker 4: got that growing injury, it was curtains they were never

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Speaker 4: gonna win this series versus the Phoenix Suns, who all

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Speaker 4: year we talked about how good they were if Davis

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Speaker 4: was not healthy.

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Speaker 2: Once Davis got that, once he got the growing injury

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Speaker 2: and then the reinjury, like they had to know, there

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Speaker 2: was so much desperation going in the last night they

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Speaker 2: were playing Davis on this short rest, off the injury,

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Speaker 2: they were starting gasol. Drummond was just like sent off

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Speaker 2: in an airplane elsewhere. Last night. I mean that dude

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Speaker 2: couldn't buy minutes when they were behind by like twenty

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Speaker 2: or thirty in the second quarter, and once, I think

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Speaker 2: once Davis got the second injury, it just took the

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Speaker 2: air out of the Lakers and out of the arena.

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Speaker 2: Like I think at that moment, their reality sunk in.

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Speaker 2: Even if they could come back and win that game,

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Speaker 2: even if they could come back and win the series,

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Speaker 2: I don't know when we're going to see Davis again.

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Speaker 2: I don't think the Lakers knew wh they were going

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Speaker 2: to see him again. And Lebron is awesome, but we've

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Speaker 2: seen the Lakers with just Lebron and not Davis. That

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Speaker 2: was two years ago, and that team didn't make the

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Speaker 2: playoffs or maybe it was going to eake into the

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Speaker 2: playoffs and probably have had a similar result if Lebron

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Speaker 2: had stayed healthy. So yeah, look, Lebron is awesome, but

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Speaker 2: basketball is not a one man game. You still have

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Speaker 2: to have teammates. They still have to actually show up

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Speaker 2: and make shots and play defense. And for these last

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Speaker 2: couple of games the Lakers, Lebron saw what all of

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Speaker 2: us saw. His teammates weren't good enough, and Lebron, I

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Speaker 2: think also wasn't good enough from what he has been

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Speaker 2: in the past. I think we all waited for the

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Speaker 2: inevitable Lebron playoff Lebron to show up, and it wasn't

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Speaker 2: quite there. But the teammates weren't good enough this year.

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Speaker 2: They never had enough shooting. The defense was great but

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Speaker 2: faltered these last couple of games. It just wasn't a

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Speaker 2: title team.

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Speaker 4: On the bad ankle, he wasn't able to be the

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Speaker 4: guy guy that he's been in the years past. And

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Speaker 4: we'll see he can get back there next year with

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Speaker 4: a full off season of rest, which will do him good.

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Speaker 1: I will say this, there's a couple of things that I.

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Speaker 4: Do want to kind of like note because there's the

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Speaker 4: idea of, like, we the shit short this offseason. Okay,

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Speaker 4: the conference finalists got an extra two weeks of rest.

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Speaker 4: The people that lost in the second round got an

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Speaker 4: extra what three weeks of rest?

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Speaker 1: Three and a half weeks of rest. And I don't

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Speaker 1: mean to go down this road rain, but I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: have to.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Lebron lost his second best player, the Nuggets lost

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Speaker 4: their second best player, and they're moving on.

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Speaker 5: I think the one thing that you have to come

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Speaker 5: back on is that they had four or five months

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Speaker 5: off to get last year's championship like that impacted them.

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Speaker 5: So it's just like we're looking at Anthony Davis right now.

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Speaker 5: If they don't have that gat who knows that Anthony

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Speaker 5: Davis last is last year. So they got one more

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Speaker 5: championship than they probably deserved. You know, I love the Lakers,

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Speaker 5: but they just did this whole thing wrong. Like last year,

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Speaker 5: they had an identity. The identity was they're gonna grab rebounds.

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Speaker 5: They're gonna dominate you in the offensive rebounds to make

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Speaker 5: up for their deficiencies at shooting threes. This year they

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Speaker 5: didn't have that. They let Jabelle mc mcgeeg go, they

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Speaker 5: let Dwight Howard and this is not the rebounding team

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Speaker 5: that we saw last year. Lebron liking THC so much

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Speaker 5: is the reason why they just didn't get rid of them.

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Speaker 3: Like Lowry would have saved this team.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, he would have. I agree that.

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Speaker 5: It's tragic because you know, three days ago, we thought

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Speaker 5: the series was over. You know, Chris Paul looked like

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Speaker 5: he was you know, his arm was done, and they

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Speaker 5: had a lead in game what was it, Game four?

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Speaker 5: Lebron hit that dump and then from that moment on,

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Speaker 5: it just was a different series. So things happened quickly

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Speaker 5: in the NBA. This team's gonna have to retool, and

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Speaker 5: you know, we'll see if they ever get back to

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Speaker 5: the level. I don't know if Lebron's ever gonna get

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Speaker 5: another championship with this roster.

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Speaker 1: So I had a big position on the Lakers.

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Speaker 4: I have hedged it appropriately, and I have the ability

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Speaker 4: to add on to other teams. My profit margin is

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Speaker 4: going to be lower, for sure, but I'm okay the

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Speaker 4: Lakers annoying. Losing is annoying because it allows me for

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Speaker 4: fewer guaranteed situations. But look, I'm probably I'm still probably

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Speaker 4: going to bang him for next year's title.

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Speaker 1: A full off season, they'll get everybody healthy.

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Speaker 4: They'll probably add another star, either a veteran guy that's

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Speaker 4: that's gonna come in cheap like Lowry, or you know,

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Speaker 4: we'll talk about what happens with the next guy that

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Speaker 4: we're going to talk about.

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Speaker 1: The final thing.

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Speaker 4: I will say, though, if we're gonna look at the

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Speaker 4: Miami Heat and people are going to talk about the

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Speaker 4: bubble and the flukeness, Anthony Davis's jumper fell last year

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Speaker 4: in the bubble, it was red hot. They're a different

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Speaker 4: team when he's not able to hit jumpers. Yeah, I

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Speaker 4: think they lost the series because of Davis's injury because

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Speaker 4: he wasn't on the floor, especially because I listed up

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Speaker 4: yesterday and Booker was shooting thirty nine percent from the

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Speaker 4: field when Davis was on court. But ultimately, if we're

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Speaker 4: going to talk about the heat being this flucish team,

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Speaker 4: the Lakers did win inside of a weird environment with

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Speaker 4: a weird shooting environment.

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Speaker 1: And I'm not saying there's a nastaisk you won the title.

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Speaker 1: You won the title.

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Speaker 4: I'm more interested in how it means going forward and

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Speaker 4: what they can do from there. Let's start like very

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Speaker 4: big picture.

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Speaker 1: I want to go big picture and then goes smaller.

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Speaker 3: Okay.

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Speaker 4: At bet MGM, the official odds provider of the Action

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Speaker 4: Network podcast, we can look at the series prices, and

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Speaker 4: obviously they've had them up since the series got locked in.

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Speaker 4: We saw some advanced prices last week which I may

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Speaker 4: have taken advantage of. Then when we look at it though, however,

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Speaker 4: the odds are you've got NETS minus two hundred bucks

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Speaker 4: plus one sixty five. You've got NETS minus one and

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Speaker 4: a half games is plus one ten. So that's basically

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Speaker 4: NETS and six Nets minus two and a half is

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Speaker 4: plus two twenty five. That's nets and five you've got

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Speaker 4: bucks minus one and a half. That's bucks in six

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Speaker 4: at plus three hundred if you want to get or

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Speaker 4: better if they get winning four or five or six,

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Speaker 4: and bucks plus two and a half unfortunately is minus

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Speaker 4: two seventy five.

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Speaker 1: This series is very interesting in terms of I.

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Speaker 4: Looked at these series prices last night for a big

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Speaker 4: megapreview we up up on Action network dot com. As

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Speaker 4: you read that, as you listen to this, rhim, you're

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Speaker 4: really good at this stuff. I want to ask you

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Speaker 4: this first. To me, it seems like the books are

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Speaker 4: saying we want the money on the nets when you

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Speaker 4: look at the series game spread right, because it's juice.

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Speaker 1: So like the fact that.

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Speaker 4: I can't get bucks plus two and a half for

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Speaker 4: them to be able to get to lose four to

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Speaker 4: two at anything better than minus two seventy five leans

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Speaker 4: that way. I think all of us think that minus

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Speaker 4: two hundred plus one sixty five, that anything maybe less

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Speaker 4: than plus one fifty plus maybe one plus one forty

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Speaker 4: is a little light, and so there's value on the bucks.

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Speaker 4: So I'm having a hard time figuring out like the

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Speaker 4: series price tells me that the that the books are like, hey,

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Speaker 4: you can get the box and plus one sixty five,

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Speaker 4: but then the series spread is telling me that they're like, hey,

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Speaker 4: you can get the Nets to win in six at.

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Speaker 1: Plus one ten.

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Speaker 4: So that differential has me really perplexed on what the

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Speaker 4: books are hoping Tom be pipulate.

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Speaker 1: As far as they're handled your thoughts.

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Speaker 5: I'm still struggling with it myself. For me, I'm personally

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Speaker 5: not even looking at the series. I'm gonna handle this

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Speaker 5: series game by game just because I think there's gonna

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Speaker 5: be multiple swings. So, like I like the Bucks in

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Speaker 5: game one, I think the Nets are gonna struggle with

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Speaker 5: the Bucks coming out the gate because Giannis is giving

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Speaker 5: them problems off season long. They're gonna have to figure

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Speaker 5: out the rotations if DeAndre Jordan's gonna play.

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Speaker 3: So I'm coming.

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Speaker 5: I'm coming at the Bucks game one money line straight

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Speaker 5: out the gate, and then I'm gonna look at the

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Speaker 5: series price from there. So I can't even really because

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Speaker 5: I don't want to lay the Bucks at this price

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Speaker 5: right now. I think, you know, plus one seventy five,

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Speaker 5: it's almost telling it. It almost feels like they're telling

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Speaker 5: us that the Nets are gonna win this series.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I wonder part of me honestly wonders, I want

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Speaker 4: to see where it is before tip because part of

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Speaker 4: me honestly wonders if they overestimated where the public is

224
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Speaker 4: gonna come in on this series. I got to give

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Speaker 4: the I'm going to reach out to the books and

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Speaker 4: get a sense for where they're at going into the series,

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Speaker 4: going where you can.

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Speaker 1: Find that on Action Network. That's one of my big

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Speaker 1: questions here is like.

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Speaker 4: Did they expect a flood of public money to because

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Speaker 4: the media, the analysts, the betters that I've talked to,

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Speaker 4: it's bucks. Like they're just like, look, I'm getting bucks

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Speaker 4: at the imply probability at one sixty five where it's

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Speaker 4: out about MGM is thirty seven point seventy four via

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Speaker 4: our Action Network tool.

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Speaker 1: Right. I haven't done the no big.

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Speaker 4: On it, but if you look at just that thirty

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Speaker 4: seven percent, that feels light to me, Like this feels

239
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Speaker 4: if you want to get I would put this really

240
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Speaker 4: into fifty to fifty.

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Speaker 1: If you want to give.

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Speaker 4: The Nets a lean because of Home Court and they

243
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Speaker 4: have Kevin Durant, then maybe maybe sixty forty, but thirty

244
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Speaker 4: seven feels definitely light by at least a few percentage points,

245
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Speaker 4: if not more like a middle ground there.

246
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Speaker 1: Obviously it's fifty five percent forty five percent.

247
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Speaker 4: Brandon, I am a little bit is because like minus

248
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Speaker 4: two hundred is not an appetizing price, but it's also

249
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Speaker 4: not a price that on a series number you go like,

250
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Speaker 4: oh absolutely not, Like you don't go you don't look

251
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Speaker 4: in that minus two hundred and go like, ugh, no,

252
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Speaker 4: not gonna lay that, Especially with the Brooklyn friggin Nets.

253
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Speaker 4: I will say that if you want to bet the Nets,

254
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Speaker 4: just bet them to win the title, like we talked about.

255
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Speaker 4: I don't see a matchup that's worse for them the

256
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Speaker 4: rest of the way. But as far as the numbers

257
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Speaker 4: on this go, I mean, you're always looking for the

258
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Speaker 4: long shot here, what's your ankle going in?

259
00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,720
Speaker 2: I really struggle to try to find what is the

260
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Speaker 2: angle to play on a series bet on this, Like

261
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Speaker 2: where where is their value on the series? And I think,

262
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Speaker 2: like raheem, I just don't see value on a series

263
00:12:44,600 --> 00:12:47,520
Speaker 2: bet right now. I don't see great value. I like

264
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Speaker 2: the Nets to win the series, but I don't like

265
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Speaker 2: them minus two hundred to win the series necessarily. I

266
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Speaker 2: agree that the Bucks seem to have value at that number,

267
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Speaker 2: but I don't know if I think they have enough

268
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Speaker 2: value at that number. Here are a couple things that

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Speaker 2: are causing me to save my money from a series

270
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Speaker 2: back right now. Number one, I think it's very likely

271
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Speaker 2: that both of these teams trail at some point in

272
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Speaker 2: the series. For me, even picking the Nets, I think

273
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Speaker 2: that the Bucks either go up one zero or two

274
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Speaker 2: to one something earlier in the series that the Nets

275
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Speaker 2: have to actually respond to. If the Nets are going

276
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Speaker 2: to win the series, then that would imply at the

277
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Speaker 2: very least they'd be up like three to two or something.

278
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Speaker 2: In both cases, either one of those teams is going

279
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Speaker 2: to be down in the series, and I'm going to

280
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Speaker 2: get better odds to bet them to win the series.

281
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Speaker 2: At that point, then I can bet on them right now.

282
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Speaker 2: So I'm not interested in the series price for that reason.

283
00:13:42,920 --> 00:13:47,000
Speaker 2: The second reason is that I'm looking ahead and I'm

284
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Speaker 2: not necessarily willing to. I do agree, I think this

285
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Speaker 2: is the NBA Finals, but it's till long playoffs. We

286
00:13:51,720 --> 00:13:54,240
Speaker 2: never know. We never know how things are going to

287
00:13:54,280 --> 00:13:57,400
Speaker 2: hold up. We don't know what the Bucks team would

288
00:13:57,400 --> 00:13:59,559
Speaker 2: look like in a finals against a lot of really

289
00:13:59,600 --> 00:14:02,040
Speaker 2: good teams. We don't know if the Nets guys can

290
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Speaker 2: stay healthy for another month from there. What I do

291
00:14:04,960 --> 00:14:08,280
Speaker 2: feel pretty good about is that whoever wins this series

292
00:14:08,559 --> 00:14:11,520
Speaker 2: is definitely going to the finals. And I Am not

293
00:14:11,640 --> 00:14:13,520
Speaker 2: going to bet on the Nets or the Bucks to

294
00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:15,079
Speaker 2: win the series when I can just spend on the

295
00:14:15,120 --> 00:14:17,160
Speaker 2: Nets or the Bucks to win the East. Because I

296
00:14:17,160 --> 00:14:21,240
Speaker 2: don't have any confidence in whatever is happening with Joel

297
00:14:21,240 --> 00:14:23,600
Speaker 2: Embiide and the Sixers or in the Hawks beating them

298
00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,960
Speaker 2: in the Eastern Finals. I will make whoever wins here

299
00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:32,000
Speaker 2: a serious, significant favor in the Eastern Finals. So why

300
00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:34,200
Speaker 2: bet the series on either one of these teams when

301
00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:37,400
Speaker 2: I can just get better price to bet the Eastern

302
00:14:37,680 --> 00:14:40,800
Speaker 2: champs instead, without even having to pay for the chance

303
00:14:40,880 --> 00:14:44,920
Speaker 2: of losing in the NBA Finals. So I don't see

304
00:14:45,040 --> 00:14:48,320
Speaker 2: value on either side of the series the way that

305
00:14:48,320 --> 00:14:50,760
Speaker 2: they've painted these series prices Right now, I'm a little

306
00:14:50,760 --> 00:14:53,560
Speaker 2: bit fuddled, like you, mad of just like, okay, where

307
00:14:53,560 --> 00:14:55,720
Speaker 2: are you expecting the money? Where do you want it

308
00:14:55,760 --> 00:14:58,520
Speaker 2: to happen? And I just think that the better value

309
00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:02,360
Speaker 2: is thinking a little bit longer term or waiting to

310
00:15:02,400 --> 00:15:04,400
Speaker 2: see how the series shapes up a little bit.

311
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,800
Speaker 4: See here's here's another prop that's available on at MGM

312
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:11,080
Speaker 4: the series number of games right, And we missed on

313
00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,760
Speaker 4: this with the Hawk's next series because it turns out

314
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Speaker 4: the Knicks with the frauds that we thought they were

315
00:15:15,440 --> 00:15:18,120
Speaker 4: and did listen to ourselves. The over five and a

316
00:15:18,160 --> 00:15:20,920
Speaker 4: half is minus one fifty Well, I think it is curious.

317
00:15:21,040 --> 00:15:23,680
Speaker 4: Is under five and a half is only plus one

318
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:27,000
Speaker 4: twenty five. So there's like a forty four percent implied

319
00:15:27,080 --> 00:15:29,320
Speaker 4: chance that this thing's done in five.

320
00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:32,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's crazy. Wow, I didn't see that one. That's

321
00:15:33,000 --> 00:15:35,120
Speaker 2: that's a very good looking line. Like, what what is

322
00:15:35,160 --> 00:15:37,480
Speaker 2: the scenario where this series ends in four or five

323
00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:40,760
Speaker 2: other than a catastrophic injury to one of the superstars.

324
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Speaker 2: Is it just that the Nets are just so incredible

325
00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,120
Speaker 2: on offense that they just completely steamroll of the box.

326
00:15:47,280 --> 00:15:50,440
Speaker 2: Is that the Nets and five pick? How else is

327
00:15:50,480 --> 00:15:51,560
Speaker 2: the series over in five?

328
00:15:51,800 --> 00:15:51,960
Speaker 3: Yeah?

329
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Speaker 4: I mean the Nets in five is just like, oh,

330
00:15:55,280 --> 00:15:58,680
Speaker 4: you know, Yannis can't hit free throws, They're able to

331
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,800
Speaker 4: build a wall with dere George the Bucks individual offense

332
00:16:02,840 --> 00:16:05,400
Speaker 4: without the Vincenzo, they get picked a part, they can't

333
00:16:05,400 --> 00:16:08,360
Speaker 4: find anybody to replace him. Katie and Kyrie are able

334
00:16:08,400 --> 00:16:11,680
Speaker 4: to score enough in on ball, and then whoever it

335
00:16:11,760 --> 00:16:13,800
Speaker 4: is that the other guy is can't hang with Joe

336
00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,040
Speaker 4: Harris who bombs away from three, and the Bucks just

337
00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:20,720
Speaker 4: their defense can't handle the firepower the Bucks in five,

338
00:16:21,160 --> 00:16:25,680
Speaker 4: which I will admit is not entirely unappetizing to me,

339
00:16:26,800 --> 00:16:30,440
Speaker 4: is the Nets have to play somebody that actually plays defense, right,

340
00:16:30,520 --> 00:16:32,880
Speaker 4: The Nets have to actually play defense in this series,

341
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:37,560
Speaker 4: the Bucks big three is able to the lower Katie

342
00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:40,600
Speaker 4: and Kyrie's efficiency just enough or hardens like just two

343
00:16:40,640 --> 00:16:43,520
Speaker 4: of the three. Brook Lopez is able to stay on

344
00:16:43,520 --> 00:16:46,920
Speaker 4: the floor, and they're able to maintain their core identity

345
00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:50,800
Speaker 4: and provide enough help defense, and especially they win the

346
00:16:50,800 --> 00:16:53,240
Speaker 4: bench minutes, which we'll talk about in a second, to

347
00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:56,280
Speaker 4: such a big degree that even though the Nets start

348
00:16:56,320 --> 00:17:00,360
Speaker 4: every game up nineteen to ten, they wind up losing

349
00:17:00,360 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 4: this They're down at half, they're down after three, they're down.

350
00:17:03,320 --> 00:17:09,400
Speaker 4: They lose a series like I can see that scenario occurring.

351
00:17:09,680 --> 00:17:10,800
Speaker 1: Minus one point fifty.

352
00:17:11,560 --> 00:17:17,320
Speaker 4: Your implieds are sixty percent right, So there's only there's

353
00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:19,920
Speaker 4: only a sixty percent chance that each of these two

354
00:17:19,920 --> 00:17:22,320
Speaker 4: teams win two games.

355
00:17:22,720 --> 00:17:25,240
Speaker 3: As that's not making that's not making any sense to me.

356
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:29,360
Speaker 4: With a net with the nets being only minus two

357
00:17:29,440 --> 00:17:32,679
Speaker 4: hundred like this line is, and it's shortened right like

358
00:17:32,720 --> 00:17:35,159
Speaker 4: the initial numbers that we saw, like I grabbed a

359
00:17:35,200 --> 00:17:37,520
Speaker 4: one eighty. I grabbed a one eighty when it came out,

360
00:17:37,760 --> 00:17:39,240
Speaker 4: truth be told, I grabbed a two hundred.

361
00:17:39,240 --> 00:17:41,520
Speaker 1: Actually I just remembered at one book, there are books

362
00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:43,720
Speaker 1: that that popped it way big and then had had

363
00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:45,480
Speaker 1: to go back down. Now we've seen that consistently that

364
00:17:45,520 --> 00:17:46,800
Speaker 1: some of the books just.

365
00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:50,200
Speaker 4: Their early lines are off, you know, like props to

366
00:17:50,280 --> 00:17:52,360
Speaker 4: them for getting the business in, but they put out

367
00:17:52,400 --> 00:17:55,000
Speaker 4: early lines that if you can get a number in,

368
00:17:55,080 --> 00:17:57,399
Speaker 4: you can you can get a really good line on it.

369
00:17:57,880 --> 00:17:59,720
Speaker 4: But as the market is adjusted, we've seen this go

370
00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:03,280
Speaker 4: down to like one sixty five. There's someone forties floating around.

371
00:18:03,359 --> 00:18:06,919
Speaker 4: Like the series seems relatively close. Now, winning the series

372
00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:09,760
Speaker 4: doesn't necessarily have to reflect the number of games outcome, right,

373
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:12,160
Speaker 4: Like it can be a really close competitive five game

374
00:18:12,240 --> 00:18:14,679
Speaker 4: series where it just goes the other way. It's like

375
00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:18,040
Speaker 4: it was really close through three games, but then like

376
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:20,320
Speaker 4: Jannis tweeked an ankle and then like that was it.

377
00:18:21,040 --> 00:18:23,080
Speaker 4: But like you said that, you couldn't find value if

378
00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:24,640
Speaker 4: you want to look at it, like I have to say,

379
00:18:24,720 --> 00:18:27,119
Speaker 4: over five and a half minus one fifty probably seems

380
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:29,760
Speaker 4: like the best value we're going to get given the

381
00:18:29,760 --> 00:18:31,720
Speaker 4: matchups on both sides of this equation.

382
00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:35,399
Speaker 2: Brandon, all the different angles we've talked about, I like

383
00:18:35,480 --> 00:18:38,480
Speaker 2: this angle the best of just yeah, these teams are

384
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:40,920
Speaker 2: both really good. We think this is the NBA Finals.

385
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:43,240
Speaker 2: We think these are the best two teams. Let's give

386
00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:45,159
Speaker 2: them each credit to win a couple of games. I

387
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:48,119
Speaker 2: mean that's in five means that we're gonna treat the

388
00:18:48,160 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 2: Bucks with the same amount of respect that we gave

389
00:18:50,480 --> 00:18:52,840
Speaker 2: the Celtics, who just lost in five to the Nets,

390
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:56,280
Speaker 2: Like why why should we believe that Brooklyn is good

391
00:18:56,359 --> 00:18:58,320
Speaker 2: is not only going to be so much the better

392
00:18:58,359 --> 00:19:00,760
Speaker 2: team but also going to some We have this like

393
00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:04,120
Speaker 2: killer closer mentality that this team come out and just

394
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:06,359
Speaker 2: like played with its food in the first quarter against

395
00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,680
Speaker 2: the Celtics game after game, and Wadon was like, Ah,

396
00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:11,959
Speaker 2: it's fine, We're just so good. We'll just score and

397
00:19:11,960 --> 00:19:15,080
Speaker 2: we need to like, why are they gonna suddenly decide

398
00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:17,680
Speaker 2: to not do that against the Bucks until they actually

399
00:19:17,680 --> 00:19:19,560
Speaker 2: have to figure out that they can't do that against

400
00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:22,720
Speaker 2: the Bucks. I think it's really hard for me to

401
00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 2: see it ending in four or five. I think what

402
00:19:26,160 --> 00:19:28,640
Speaker 2: you said about like, oh, it was a close series

403
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,960
Speaker 2: and then Giannis tweaked his ankle or something like that,

404
00:19:31,359 --> 00:19:34,720
Speaker 2: maybe that's the scenario. I don't know what. I really

405
00:19:34,720 --> 00:19:36,800
Speaker 2: have a hard time seeing Bucks in in four or

406
00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:39,679
Speaker 2: five personally. So I think that that's a good angle.

407
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:44,320
Speaker 2: Another angle that another like plus juice or sorry, like

408
00:19:44,359 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 2: another like you really got to drink the juice on it?

409
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:51,120
Speaker 2: Angle is We talked about this on our first round preview.

410
00:19:51,359 --> 00:19:54,560
Speaker 2: You can bet on who's gonna lead the series in scoring. Yeah,

411
00:19:54,920 --> 00:19:58,159
Speaker 2: jns is gonna leave the series in scoring. Yanna's scored

412
00:19:58,240 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 2: so many points in that in that recent matchup. And

413
00:20:01,760 --> 00:20:04,120
Speaker 2: we'll talk about the matchup, we'll talk about who's gonna

414
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 2: defend him. It's not me Jeff Green at least not

415
00:20:06,119 --> 00:20:08,000
Speaker 2: to start out, because he's missing and he was probably

416
00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,720
Speaker 2: the first pick. And I think Giannis is gonna just

417
00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:13,880
Speaker 2: score so many points. I kind of think if I'm Brooklyn,

418
00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 2: I'm good with that. I think I want him to

419
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:18,560
Speaker 2: just do his thing and hold down the forty against

420
00:20:18,600 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 2: everyone else. Jiannis is minus two twenty five to leave

421
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,639
Speaker 2: the series in scoring, and I just think he's the

422
00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,800
Speaker 2: Brooklyn guys are gonna get their points, but then it's

423
00:20:26,800 --> 00:20:29,600
Speaker 2: gonna be somebody else the next game. Jannis is gonna

424
00:20:29,600 --> 00:20:32,240
Speaker 2: get his monster number every single night, and I think

425
00:20:32,760 --> 00:20:35,439
Speaker 2: like that. I don't know. I don't love paying minus

426
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 2: two twenty five on almost any bet, but that looks

427
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:40,840
Speaker 2: like a pretty clear winner to me on that one.

428
00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,359
Speaker 3: I like Bucks plus one one and a half.

429
00:20:43,400 --> 00:20:46,000
Speaker 5: I think you should play that as opposed to over

430
00:20:46,080 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 5: one five and a half because the over five and

431
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,119
Speaker 5: a half you're laying one fifty and the Bucks plus

432
00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:53,640
Speaker 5: one and a half it's one thirty five.

433
00:20:53,720 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 1: So either to win or losing seven is minus one

434
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:56,359
Speaker 1: thirty five.

435
00:20:56,720 --> 00:20:56,960
Speaker 3: Yeah.

436
00:20:57,080 --> 00:20:59,920
Speaker 4: Yes, I mean your only real liability there is net

437
00:21:00,160 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 4: and six.

438
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:01,920
Speaker 1: Yeah.

439
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 4: But this is the problem. See, this is why where

440
00:21:03,600 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 4: he was like I wanted. I was like, I was like, ooh, okay,

441
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 4: the Bucks are dogs. I should be able to get

442
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 4: Bucks plus two and a half at a pretty decent number.

443
00:21:11,600 --> 00:21:13,960
Speaker 1: And then they put it at minus two seventy five.

444
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, minus two seventy five for the Bucks to at

445
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,720
Speaker 4: least win two games, and you're telling me that they're

446
00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 4: plus one sixty five on the series. Like, again, I

447
00:21:22,760 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 4: can't tell if these numbers are so sharp that they're

448
00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:29,600
Speaker 4: indecipherable and there's no value, or if they're not sharp

449
00:21:29,640 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 4: at all and they're throwing darts at the board.

450
00:21:32,359 --> 00:21:32,840
Speaker 3: I think you know.

451
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 5: One of the things is tu though the Bucks are

452
00:21:35,760 --> 00:21:39,240
Speaker 5: going to be favored in game six without any injuries. Yeah,

453
00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 5: so it's just like you you provide yourself, you know,

454
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 5: a chance to hedge these things, like like I'm looking

455
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:47,080
Speaker 5: at what is it that the Nets are minus three

456
00:21:47,119 --> 00:21:49,199
Speaker 5: and a half four now, so I'm guessing like the

457
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,840
Speaker 5: Bucks might be minus two or something or minus went

458
00:21:51,880 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 5: at home.

459
00:21:52,720 --> 00:21:55,880
Speaker 4: So Brandon, I'll let me tell you what's gonna happen

460
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 4: right now. Okay, Rahim and I are going to talk

461
00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 4: you into the Bucks. That's what's gonna happ We're going

462
00:22:00,840 --> 00:22:03,320
Speaker 4: to talk you into the Bucks. And then after the

463
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,960
Speaker 4: Nets win this series, you're gonna come back in victory

464
00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 4: lap even though we talked to you out of it.

465
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 4: That's what's gonna happen right now. Is that exact sequence?

466
00:22:12,200 --> 00:22:14,120
Speaker 1: So for starters. You mentioned Yanna's scoring.

467
00:22:14,720 --> 00:22:18,439
Speaker 4: He averaged thirty nine point seven points per game versus

468
00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 4: this team in the regular season thirty nine point seven.

469
00:22:23,240 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 4: The caveat he hit ten threes versus this team. Ten

470
00:22:27,760 --> 00:22:32,600
Speaker 4: threes versus the as a good sign of how much

471
00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,200
Speaker 4: of an outlier. That is his second and third most

472
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,680
Speaker 4: threes in a game this season combined for ten he

473
00:22:38,760 --> 00:22:41,560
Speaker 4: hit five and two other games. That's how much of

474
00:22:41,600 --> 00:22:45,000
Speaker 4: an outlier. But but I did the math. If you

475
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:48,760
Speaker 4: take out the points from his ten threes, he's still

476
00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,640
Speaker 4: averaged thirty points a game versus this team. So if

477
00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:54,320
Speaker 4: he doesn't hit a single three, he's on still on.

478
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:55,879
Speaker 1: Track to average thirty in this game.

479
00:22:57,800 --> 00:23:03,240
Speaker 4: Here's this is where my chess machinations got into last

480
00:23:03,320 --> 00:23:05,439
Speaker 4: night with the column that I wrote if the Nets

481
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 4: start big with DeAndre Jordan, who did a decent job

482
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:11,320
Speaker 4: versus Janni's not good but decent.

483
00:23:12,040 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: Okay.

484
00:23:13,000 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 4: The problem is is that with DeAndre Jordan in any

485
00:23:16,400 --> 00:23:18,600
Speaker 4: pick and roll situation, what do you gotta do?

486
00:23:18,720 --> 00:23:24,200
Speaker 1: Rahiem drop drop, you gotta drop yeah yeah. Brandon Chris

487
00:23:24,240 --> 00:23:28,000
Speaker 1: Middleton this season has like an effective field goal percentage

488
00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,560
Speaker 1: of fifty seven percent versus drop. He's averaging one point

489
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:34,840
Speaker 1: three points per possession versus drop defense.

490
00:23:35,480 --> 00:23:38,280
Speaker 4: So if they play Jordan and I had a scout

491
00:23:38,320 --> 00:23:39,639
Speaker 4: tell me this, He's like, watch what happen.

492
00:23:39,640 --> 00:23:40,560
Speaker 1: He's like, go back and watch.

493
00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:44,919
Speaker 4: When they play Jordan, Drew will run into that and

494
00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,960
Speaker 4: they'll just hang. They'll just hold because you can't get

495
00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 4: over the screen fast enough and you have to And

496
00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,679
Speaker 4: at that point, once you can't get over Yannis's screen,

497
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,359
Speaker 4: you have to stay with him or he's rolling to

498
00:23:55,400 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 4: the basket and getting a layup.

499
00:23:57,280 --> 00:24:01,000
Speaker 1: So you just wait out the drop coverage.

500
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,159
Speaker 4: And then you've got a switch of Drew Holliday on

501
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:07,600
Speaker 4: DeAndre Jordan, and that's barbecue chicken and I went back

502
00:24:07,600 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 4: in Washington. I've got a clip that's exactly what happens,

503
00:24:10,640 --> 00:24:13,520
Speaker 4: and it happened on multiple possessions. Drew comes off to

504
00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 4: the screen. The guy can't get over. He's forced a

505
00:24:16,160 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 4: switch on to Giannis. Jordan settles into a soft switch.

506
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:23,160
Speaker 4: Drew doesn't attack him at the rim, he just backs up,

507
00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:26,359
Speaker 4: forces Jordan to get stuck in no man's land and

508
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:28,119
Speaker 4: takes a jumper and cans it.

509
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:28,840
Speaker 3: Because it's easy.

510
00:24:29,359 --> 00:24:30,479
Speaker 1: That's a big advantage for him.

511
00:24:30,520 --> 00:24:32,520
Speaker 4: Then you've got Chris that just will come off the

512
00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:36,400
Speaker 4: screen immediately, and as soon as Jordan drops, you're giving Chris,

513
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:37,959
Speaker 4: Milton and Midarraane jump shot.

514
00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 1: It's over.

515
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 4: Okay, but the Nets like the switch you say, the

516
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 4: Nets have all these switchy defenders. Okay, you can't do it.

517
00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,560
Speaker 4: Blake Griffin, Jannis destroyed him. I mean it was bad,

518
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:52,680
Speaker 4: like Jannis annihilated him, like there was a post move.

519
00:24:53,040 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 4: He had Blake like two steps off of him when

520
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:57,639
Speaker 4: he went back the other way for the layout. So

521
00:24:57,760 --> 00:25:00,600
Speaker 4: you can't play Blake. Jeff Green's out, which means you're

522
00:25:00,600 --> 00:25:03,800
Speaker 4: going to Nick Claxton. Claxton can't build the wall. Giannis

523
00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:05,680
Speaker 4: is going in transition and dunking over him every single

524
00:25:05,720 --> 00:25:08,400
Speaker 4: time because he's not bick enough. Like I'll be perfectly

525
00:25:08,400 --> 00:25:10,600
Speaker 4: honest with you, Brandon, when I looked at this matchup

526
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 4: and I actually started diving in, I legitimately think the

527
00:25:13,640 --> 00:25:15,960
Speaker 4: Bucks Big three can hang in the series because they're

528
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 4: good at what they do versus what the Nets do,

529
00:25:19,240 --> 00:25:21,520
Speaker 4: and the Nets are just good at whatever it is

530
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,000
Speaker 4: that they do. I get superstars matter, I get tit,

531
00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:26,800
Speaker 4: talent wins. But if we've been saying for season after

532
00:25:26,840 --> 00:25:29,239
Speaker 4: season after season that Chris Middleton is underrated and he's

533
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 4: an all NBA score which he has been. And we've

534
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 4: been saying the season after season after season that Drew

535
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:37,280
Speaker 4: Holliday is really good and a masterful point guard. And

536
00:25:37,359 --> 00:25:40,000
Speaker 4: we know that Giannis only really struggles versus teams that

537
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:42,159
Speaker 4: have the defensive identity to build a wall versus in

538
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 4: which is Toronto Miami and a handful of other teams,

539
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 4: and certainly out the Brooklyn Nets telling me how the

540
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:48,919
Speaker 4: Nets are going to be able to who has a

541
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,800
Speaker 4: better chance of scoring of slowing down the other one

542
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,560
Speaker 4: a Nets team and a bad matchup with a bad

543
00:25:55,680 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 4: defense or the best three man combo of the NBA

544
00:26:00,880 --> 00:26:04,919
Speaker 4: in terms of offense versus a very good, elite athletic

545
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:09,280
Speaker 4: defense that can throw multiple looks at you and have

546
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:11,439
Speaker 4: proven that throughout the course of the season.

547
00:26:11,840 --> 00:26:14,600
Speaker 2: So I agree with pretty much all of that. I

548
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 2: agree that Giannis is going to have a monster series.

549
00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,960
Speaker 2: I think he could pretty much name his number and

550
00:26:21,000 --> 00:26:24,600
Speaker 2: score it whatever he feels like. I agree that the matchups,

551
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:27,760
Speaker 2: the matchups are what make this intriguing. That's why this

552
00:26:27,840 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 2: is the NBA Finals. That's that's why this is so interesting.

553
00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,479
Speaker 2: I just think that the matchups are what make this

554
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:38,080
Speaker 2: only intriguing enough to actually make me think twice about them.

555
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 2: That's versus like nobody else in the NBA is going

556
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 2: to make me even give pause with these three guys healthy.

557
00:26:44,119 --> 00:26:48,760
Speaker 2: So I agree that I think that the Bucks are

558
00:26:48,800 --> 00:26:50,760
Speaker 2: going to have a lot of the matchup edges in

559
00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 2: the way that you're saying early in the series. I

560
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 2: think that as the series, the longer the series goes on.

561
00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:00,400
Speaker 2: We talked on the podcast a few weeks ago, Matt,

562
00:27:00,400 --> 00:27:02,520
Speaker 2: you had to call him about, Okay, what are the

563
00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:05,360
Speaker 2: things I'm looking for in the postseason when it makes

564
00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:07,920
Speaker 2: the postseason different from the regular season, And on the

565
00:27:07,960 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 2: podcast we talked about it. My top thing that I

566
00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:15,639
Speaker 2: talked about was not defensive versatility. It was offensive versatility

567
00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 2: and firepower. And I do think that it's easy for

568
00:27:19,560 --> 00:27:23,520
Speaker 2: me to see the Nets struggling ish as far as

569
00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:27,119
Speaker 2: Brooklyn is going to struggle to score consistently, to solve

570
00:27:27,160 --> 00:27:30,359
Speaker 2: some of the defensive problems, to solve the size. I

571
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,879
Speaker 2: do think Milwaukee matches well and is going to push

572
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,480
Speaker 2: Brooklyn early in the series and and force them to

573
00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:40,719
Speaker 2: find some solutions. The solutions are Kevin Durant and James

574
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:45,120
Speaker 2: Harden and Kyrie Irving. The solutions are there. I don't

575
00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:47,280
Speaker 2: think that they know quite what they are yet. I

576
00:27:47,320 --> 00:27:49,440
Speaker 2: don't know that they know what they look like yet.

577
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:53,439
Speaker 2: I trust that much talent, and I trust the coaching

578
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:56,720
Speaker 2: staff that has a whole lot of history of doing

579
00:27:56,800 --> 00:28:01,399
Speaker 2: awesome offensive things. I trust them to find answers. And

580
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:04,879
Speaker 2: I think that when they do find some answers, I

581
00:28:05,040 --> 00:28:07,679
Speaker 2: don't know what the counter punch is going to be

582
00:28:07,760 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 2: from Milwaukee. Defensively, I trust Brooklyn's offensive versatility more than

583
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:18,320
Speaker 2: I trust Milwaukee's defensive versatility to provide answers once Brooklyn

584
00:28:18,359 --> 00:28:21,679
Speaker 2: figures out those things. And Okay, so you know a

585
00:28:21,680 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: big key is who's Drew Holliday gonna guard in the series?

586
00:28:24,800 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 2: Do you put him on Kyrie Irving and just try

587
00:28:26,720 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 2: to take Kyrie out and just try to stifle him?

588
00:28:29,680 --> 00:28:32,760
Speaker 2: Do you put Drew on Harden and try to like

589
00:28:32,960 --> 00:28:36,480
Speaker 2: in either case, he's such a pesky defender that and

590
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:40,000
Speaker 2: Kyrie and Harden are both like so can get in

591
00:28:40,040 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 2: their heads that you could potentially take them out of

592
00:28:43,200 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 2: the game mentally a little bit as well, Like I

593
00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:49,200
Speaker 2: don't think that that's hard to imagine that happening. But

594
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,400
Speaker 2: then they're still the other two guys, And then when

595
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 2: it's not those two guys, there's still Joe Harris being

596
00:28:54,840 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 2: open and shooting threes, and there's just there's so much

597
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 2: firepower on this team. And the Brooklyn Nets had the

598
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,520
Speaker 2: number one offense versus the Bucks where I think number

599
00:29:04,560 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 2: six where they finished in the year, and I think

600
00:29:06,680 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 2: that we look at them and we're like, oh, they're

601
00:29:08,240 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: both really good offenses. The Nets are a little better.

602
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,240
Speaker 2: I don't think the Nets are a little better. I

603
00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:14,000
Speaker 2: think the Nets are a lot, a lot, a lot

604
00:29:14,040 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 2: better and have so much firepower, so much offense that

605
00:29:18,440 --> 00:29:21,480
Speaker 2: I just trust them to figure things out as the

606
00:29:21,520 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 2: series goes along.

607
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:23,440
Speaker 1: Okay, a couple of things here.

608
00:29:24,040 --> 00:29:26,640
Speaker 4: One my first on this series is they should put

609
00:29:26,720 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 4: Drew on harden and just sacrifice the Kyrie points.

610
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 1: I've moved away from that.

611
00:29:32,320 --> 00:29:34,800
Speaker 4: And here's the reason, Brandon, if Kyrie's not scoring, what

612
00:29:34,840 --> 00:29:35,760
Speaker 4: does he give you?

613
00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:37,560
Speaker 2: Not a lot shooting ground.

614
00:29:38,440 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 4: Shooting ground, really, But you're not worried about that because

615
00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 4: you don't need Drew for the defense to be good.

616
00:29:44,320 --> 00:29:47,360
Speaker 1: Drew makes them better. But this defense is good with

617
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 1: or without Drew.

618
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:49,400
Speaker 3: Correct, I don't know.

619
00:29:49,440 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 2: The defense is a lot better with Drew. Like they're saying, okay.

620
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 4: I'm saying, okay, Well, I'm trying to say, here's in

621
00:29:55,120 --> 00:29:58,080
Speaker 4: a five man unit including Drew. Even if they were

622
00:29:58,120 --> 00:30:00,680
Speaker 4: to neutralize Drew by by doing the y thing where

623
00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 4: you stick Kyrie in the corner and you just pull

624
00:30:02,920 --> 00:30:05,640
Speaker 4: Drew away from everybody, the other four guys are still

625
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:07,400
Speaker 4: a good defensive unit in tandem.

626
00:30:07,440 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 3: Correct.

627
00:30:08,120 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 2: Yes, the other four is still a good unit. But

628
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:12,520
Speaker 2: I definitely don't mind playing four on four and taking

629
00:30:12,560 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 2: those two guys out of the equation.

630
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 4: Okay, we'll get there. Is Kyrie okay, but playing four

631
00:30:17,120 --> 00:30:17,560
Speaker 4: on four.

632
00:30:17,440 --> 00:30:20,960
Speaker 2: Brandon, god knows what Kyrie is Okay.

633
00:30:21,360 --> 00:30:22,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, we know that. We know this.

634
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 1: He is still gonna do his thing and he's gonna

635
00:30:25,840 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: make some incredible buckets and it's gonna look good. But

636
00:30:27,640 --> 00:30:29,440
Speaker 1: if you drag down the efficiency just a little bit,

637
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:30,160
Speaker 1: that's the thing.

638
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,680
Speaker 4: He's not gonna take a back seat. If Drew is

639
00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 4: guarding him. He's still going to go try and Isolin.

640
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 1: Brandon.

641
00:30:36,120 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 4: You talk about like the offensive adjustments, what adjustments are

642
00:30:39,040 --> 00:30:41,120
Speaker 4: they gonna make? We know who this team is. They're

643
00:30:41,160 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 4: just gonna go at you one on one. That's all

644
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:45,440
Speaker 4: they're gonna do. And I get the idea of like, yeah,

645
00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 4: but they are like the best. Here's an example of

646
00:30:47,960 --> 00:30:48,720
Speaker 4: like how good they are.

647
00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:49,400
Speaker 1: So PJ.

648
00:30:49,520 --> 00:30:52,040
Speaker 4: Tucker right, really good defender, all these kind of things.

649
00:30:52,920 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 4: Harden was eleven of fifteen versus him in the regular season,

650
00:30:56,600 --> 00:31:02,520
Speaker 4: like absolutely cooked him. But but I did notice the

651
00:31:02,520 --> 00:31:05,320
Speaker 4: Bucks found some things, which is you switch in the

652
00:31:05,320 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 4: pick and roll because of the way that this offense runs.

653
00:31:08,600 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 4: They don't have so they don't have trigger mechanisms right

654
00:31:12,120 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 4: where it's like if X then hy.

655
00:31:14,480 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 1: It's just like guys doing stuff, okay.

656
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,400
Speaker 4: And they will run some stuff like Joe Harris off

657
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 4: of screens, and that's honestly like a big concern, Like

658
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 4: I love Joe Harris over threes in the series propt

659
00:31:24,520 --> 00:31:26,680
Speaker 4: because they have to put either Brent Forbes.

660
00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:28,760
Speaker 1: Or Pat Content on him. They have to, and it.

661
00:31:28,960 --> 00:31:31,360
Speaker 4: Like there's the good news for the Bucks is their

662
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:33,640
Speaker 4: top three guys are not defensive weak points. They don't

663
00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:35,680
Speaker 4: have to hide any of their top three offensive guys.

664
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:37,880
Speaker 4: The bad news is they have to hide their other dudes.

665
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:40,479
Speaker 4: And so if it's Brenn to try and space the floor.

666
00:31:40,960 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 4: There's no way Brn's going to get through screens, and

667
00:31:42,920 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 4: Harris is going to get a bunch of threes. But

668
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,479
Speaker 4: when Katie gets in one on one situations, think back

669
00:31:47,520 --> 00:31:50,400
Speaker 4: to the Rocket series right over and over again and

670
00:31:50,440 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 4: how much we were like, what is happening with the

671
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:57,680
Speaker 4: Brilliant Beautiful Warriors offense when they switch? Katie was like,

672
00:31:57,760 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 4: you're switching on me. You think you can guard me

673
00:32:00,000 --> 00:32:03,000
Speaker 4: one on one? Well, I'm gonna stand here in job

674
00:32:03,000 --> 00:32:05,479
Speaker 4: step for thirteen seconds and then shoot an off balance,

675
00:32:05,520 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 4: contested fadeaway eighteen footer and it's Kevin Durant. So he's

676
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 4: gonna make some That's not great offense. That's not good

677
00:32:11,760 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 4: offense versus the bucks are.

678
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:15,480
Speaker 1: Look, I do not have an idea for how the

679
00:32:15,520 --> 00:32:17,240
Speaker 1: nets are, like, I don't have an adjustment.

680
00:32:17,600 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 4: Maybe the nets will will prove me wrong on this.

681
00:32:19,280 --> 00:32:22,200
Speaker 4: I do not see a personnel based adjustment that is

682
00:32:22,240 --> 00:32:24,720
Speaker 4: gonna put them in a position to make adjustments in

683
00:32:24,760 --> 00:32:25,160
Speaker 4: the series.

684
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:27,560
Speaker 3: Right here, I agree with you. I think it's just

685
00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:28,520
Speaker 3: really gonna be.

686
00:32:30,040 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 5: A situation like the twenty and sixteen calves where you

687
00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,200
Speaker 5: just have two Iso, guys just beating you.

688
00:32:35,600 --> 00:32:38,560
Speaker 3: Well, in this case, it's three. We saw this series

689
00:32:38,600 --> 00:32:40,280
Speaker 3: play out between.

690
00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,440
Speaker 5: The Bucks and the Nets, and Kad was just rising

691
00:32:42,440 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 5: and firing over Yannis taking some bad shots.

692
00:32:46,800 --> 00:32:48,959
Speaker 3: So I kind of agree with you.

693
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 5: I think, honestly, my angle and the best case scenario

694
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:55,960
Speaker 5: for me would be for the Bucks to win game

695
00:32:56,040 --> 00:32:58,520
Speaker 5: one and for me, me to be able to come

696
00:32:58,560 --> 00:33:00,800
Speaker 5: back and take the Brooklyn Nets in a better price.

697
00:33:01,360 --> 00:33:03,560
Speaker 3: I kind of agree with with with Brandon.

698
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:06,800
Speaker 5: I do think eventually that talent is gonna win out,

699
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 5: but that the Bucks are live here. We got to

700
00:33:10,520 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 5: talk about the absence of Devin Chinz though, because I

701
00:33:13,160 --> 00:33:15,200
Speaker 5: think that's gonna be a huge loss for them. You're

702
00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 5: having to play Brent Forbes all these minutes.

703
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 4: I noticed Stevincenzo actually didn't play great in this series.

704
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 4: In the season series, it wasn't necessarily to have a

705
00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 4: matchup that you thought it would be. So here's a

706
00:33:28,720 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: good way to think of it, Katie hunted him. Now

707
00:33:33,280 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 4: Kd's gonna hunt conton.

708
00:33:37,560 --> 00:33:37,760
Speaker 3: Right.

709
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,080
Speaker 4: The difference though, is in the regular season they're more

710
00:33:41,120 --> 00:33:43,800
Speaker 4: willing to give DiVincenzo that switch and be like, all right,

711
00:33:43,840 --> 00:33:46,440
Speaker 4: de Vincenzo like, we'll see how you do versus in

712
00:33:46,440 --> 00:33:48,760
Speaker 4: the playoffs, and that's a problem. They will start bringing

713
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 4: help on KT. Now you start bringing hell, but then

714
00:33:51,560 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 4: the ball starts moving. That's a problem. But but once

715
00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:58,160
Speaker 4: you get Katie into second level, if he's not on

716
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 4: the perimeter, that's where it changes. So if you play

717
00:34:00,840 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 4: KD and you put two on ball, he reverses. He's

718
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 4: able to make the passes because he's seven feet tall

719
00:34:05,080 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 4: and incredible, and then the ball's moving and then it's

720
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:09,600
Speaker 4: an open three and then your bones. And there will

721
00:34:09,600 --> 00:34:11,719
Speaker 4: be defensive breakdowns like that throughout the series, and there

722
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 4: may be a lot of them in Game one as

723
00:34:14,000 --> 00:34:18,759
Speaker 4: they get used to the flow of the game. But

724
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:20,760
Speaker 4: I did notice there was a couple of plays where

725
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,960
Speaker 4: KD would get the switch, go into his sequence, attack,

726
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,879
Speaker 4: get to the corner of the free throw line near

727
00:34:26,920 --> 00:34:29,680
Speaker 4: the nail, and then Giannis would come over the backside

728
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:33,640
Speaker 4: and block him. I thought that was an interesting adjustment. Honestly,

729
00:34:33,680 --> 00:34:35,360
Speaker 4: a lot of the regular season stuff, this is what

730
00:34:35,400 --> 00:34:39,040
Speaker 4: the regular season numbers suggest, is that the Bucks model

731
00:34:39,239 --> 00:34:41,920
Speaker 4: was we're gonna make it hard on Kyrie, or we're

732
00:34:41,960 --> 00:34:44,600
Speaker 4: gonna make it hard on Harden, and we're gonna let

733
00:34:44,640 --> 00:34:47,239
Speaker 4: KD do whatever because Kd's KD. We're gonna make it

734
00:34:47,280 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 4: hard on him because you do it, you can, right.

735
00:34:51,160 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 1: And I get the idea of Brandon of like, yeah,

736
00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:53,040
Speaker 1: but they didn't have.

737
00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 4: The three guys, and if they have the three guys,

738
00:34:55,320 --> 00:34:58,040
Speaker 4: then you know the two were gonna go off. I

739
00:34:58,120 --> 00:35:01,479
Speaker 4: still don't think that you can care and type because

740
00:35:01,480 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 4: the other thing is, here's a big part of it.

741
00:35:04,640 --> 00:35:08,080
Speaker 1: The bucks are gonna make them work because the nets.

742
00:35:08,960 --> 00:35:16,400
Speaker 4: If you got their starting let's say their starters are Kyrie, Harden, Harris,

743
00:35:17,600 --> 00:35:22,080
Speaker 4: Katie and either Blake or DJ Brandon.

744
00:35:22,120 --> 00:35:25,320
Speaker 1: How many good defenders we got on that. How many pluses?

745
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:27,040
Speaker 2: It's not great.

746
00:35:27,719 --> 00:35:30,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a big thing.

747
00:35:30,360 --> 00:35:34,320
Speaker 4: You can't hide Everybody like Chris Milton is gonna be

748
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:36,200
Speaker 4: like I'm putting Kyrie and pick and roll every single time,

749
00:35:36,280 --> 00:35:38,480
Speaker 4: and they will do it guard guard like they will

750
00:35:38,560 --> 00:35:42,280
Speaker 4: run Middleton Holiday, pick and roll and just attack.

751
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 1: You can't hide these guys like this is a big

752
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: part of it. As much as everybody wants to talk

753
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:52,600
Speaker 1: about the firepower of the nets, they have multiple You

754
00:35:52,680 --> 00:35:55,680
Speaker 1: want to hide Harden, you want to hide Kyrie you

755
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:59,239
Speaker 1: want to hide, Harris. Those are three guys that you

756
00:35:59,280 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 1: want to hide, and you're not like super psyched about

757
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: the fact that Blake Grifford is out there or DeAndre Jordan.

758
00:36:05,239 --> 00:36:05,680
Speaker 3: Oh yeah.

759
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:07,799
Speaker 5: And also we got to talk about the absence of

760
00:36:07,840 --> 00:36:11,359
Speaker 5: Jeff Green, like that's a huge thing because playing those

761
00:36:11,440 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 5: playing Jeff Green at the.

762
00:36:12,680 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 3: Five has been one of the next best lineups.

763
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:15,600
Speaker 1: You know.

764
00:36:15,719 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 5: I think Reed used to work for us. I think

765
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:21,839
Speaker 5: he mentioned that he wants to see Kevin Durant at

766
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:25,000
Speaker 5: the five. But I don't know how that's gonna hold up.

767
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:29,600
Speaker 1: You don't you don't want Katie if Katie has.

768
00:36:29,480 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 4: To guard Giannis for an entire series, which is what

769
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:34,040
Speaker 4: they will do, is that Jannis will hunt him down

770
00:36:34,160 --> 00:36:34,920
Speaker 4: in those switches.

771
00:36:35,560 --> 00:36:38,399
Speaker 1: Yeah, like KT will hunt like Jannis will hunt down KD.

772
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 4: And even if KT is able to do a good

773
00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 4: job on him, KT will want it hurt. He can't

774
00:36:43,600 --> 00:36:45,479
Speaker 4: handle that physicality, not at this point in his career

775
00:36:46,120 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 4: at all.

776
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,160
Speaker 1: Brandon, Brandon, I.

777
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 4: See I see you, I see you. I see the

778
00:36:51,280 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 4: doubt it's etched on your face.

779
00:36:54,360 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 2: Well, they're just there are just so many things I

780
00:36:56,920 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 2: need to respond to this problem. There's so only so

781
00:36:59,719 --> 00:37:04,239
Speaker 2: much time. So defense, I agree, you want to hide

782
00:37:04,239 --> 00:37:06,759
Speaker 2: all the Nets defenders. And it's not like they have

783
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,240
Speaker 2: all these great defenders coming off the bench to to

784
00:37:09,239 --> 00:37:13,280
Speaker 2: to plug into the lineups either like Bruce Brown Good,

785
00:37:13,680 --> 00:37:17,040
Speaker 2: Claxton Good maybe maybe not against Giannis. I don't know,

786
00:37:17,520 --> 00:37:20,480
Speaker 2: that's about it. So you want to hide them. I'm

787
00:37:20,480 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 2: not going to hide from that fact. Defense in the

788
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,839
Speaker 2: modern NBA is as much about the weak link than

789
00:37:26,880 --> 00:37:29,800
Speaker 2: it is about the strong link. And with Dante de

790
00:37:29,880 --> 00:37:33,960
Speaker 2: Vincenzo out the Bucks at pretty much all times are

791
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,080
Speaker 2: going to have are going to have a weak link

792
00:37:36,120 --> 00:37:38,360
Speaker 2: out there. It's either going to be Brent Forbes out there,

793
00:37:38,520 --> 00:37:41,439
Speaker 2: it's going to be Bobby Portis for significant chunks of time,

794
00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 2: which is a problem. I don't trust Pat Coneton, like, yeah,

795
00:37:45,600 --> 00:37:50,760
Speaker 2: Duran was hunting Devincenzo, not because Devincenzo's this bad defender,

796
00:37:51,360 --> 00:37:53,600
Speaker 2: He's just not the other four guys, Like that's the

797
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:57,480
Speaker 2: guy that you hunt in that matchup, because that's that's

798
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,440
Speaker 2: the option out of the out of the five guys

799
00:37:59,440 --> 00:38:04,760
Speaker 2: on the floor the Bucks. I don't trust PJ. Talker,

800
00:38:04,920 --> 00:38:07,880
Speaker 2: and maybe he can prove me wrong, but his numbers

801
00:38:07,920 --> 00:38:10,279
Speaker 2: this season have not been good. I know what we've

802
00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 2: seen from PJ. Tucker in the past years. Dude is

803
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:17,040
Speaker 2: old and it hasn't looked right this year. And I

804
00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:18,960
Speaker 2: don't know if he's gonna hit those corner threes that

805
00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,160
Speaker 2: he's hit in the past. Maybe he's got one more

806
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:22,600
Speaker 2: series in him. I know this is what you've got

807
00:38:22,600 --> 00:38:26,279
Speaker 2: and get him for. But at all times, like, look,

808
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,279
Speaker 2: either Tucker or Lopez is going to be on the floor,

809
00:38:28,320 --> 00:38:30,560
Speaker 2: then you have the three stars. You still have to

810
00:38:30,600 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 2: have a fifth guy. And the reason why I think

811
00:38:34,120 --> 00:38:36,719
Speaker 2: I'm intrigued by like the Kevin Durant at Center for

812
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:39,400
Speaker 2: Stretches thing is now you have to have two of

813
00:38:39,400 --> 00:38:41,920
Speaker 2: those guys for the Bucks, because now you have no

814
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 2: Lopez and maybe no Tucker if they're really going small

815
00:38:45,480 --> 00:38:48,080
Speaker 2: that way. Now you have to have like Conton and

816
00:38:48,160 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 2: Forbes both on the floor for the Bucks. And I think,

817
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 2: like that's you're conceding that Giannie is going to do

818
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:55,719
Speaker 2: his thing. I'm conceding that Giannice is going to have

819
00:38:55,840 --> 00:38:58,279
Speaker 2: his huge numbers, But there's gonna be so many other

820
00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:01,879
Speaker 2: matchups elsewhere that resent themselves when you when you move

821
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:04,319
Speaker 2: that way for short stretches look, I.

822
00:39:04,320 --> 00:39:05,880
Speaker 1: Mean, they're not gonna take Tucker off.

823
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:09,080
Speaker 4: They go, they go KD at five Tucker's plan, right,

824
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 4: So they go, they go KD at five Tucker's plan,

825
00:39:12,400 --> 00:39:15,560
Speaker 4: and they can also counter if you don't trust Tucker

826
00:39:15,600 --> 00:39:19,400
Speaker 4: guarding guarding KD. We saw Jannis gar Jimmy Butler, Janis

827
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:22,640
Speaker 4: will do it. And if you're like, oh, but then

828
00:39:23,040 --> 00:39:24,240
Speaker 4: then Tucker is guarding.

829
00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:26,879
Speaker 1: What's the bag match up there?

830
00:39:27,040 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 2: Like somehow we're like a half an hour into this

831
00:39:30,480 --> 00:39:34,479
Speaker 2: and and have not really barely talked about James Harden yet,

832
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 2: the guy that we all decided in the middle of

833
00:39:36,560 --> 00:39:39,040
Speaker 2: the season when he was still healthy might actually be

834
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:43,759
Speaker 2: an m v P this season might might have you

835
00:39:43,920 --> 00:39:47,160
Speaker 2: not say we here, you sir.

836
00:39:47,640 --> 00:39:49,080
Speaker 3: We the media, we.

837
00:39:49,239 --> 00:39:51,800
Speaker 2: The sports media decided that he might be in contentent.

838
00:39:52,040 --> 00:39:55,280
Speaker 2: It was always jok we here in this podcast, including myself,

839
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:58,160
Speaker 2: I always agreed on that James Harden is really good.

840
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:02,520
Speaker 2: James Harden is answer that I'm talking about, Like as

841
00:40:02,560 --> 00:40:05,600
Speaker 2: awesome as the Warriors were, the Warriors didn't have a

842
00:40:05,719 --> 00:40:08,840
Speaker 2: James Harden basketball savant to pick a part of defense

843
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:12,240
Speaker 2: to score if you need a score, to suddenly start

844
00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 2: breaking things down with his passing to create that way,

845
00:40:15,280 --> 00:40:18,320
Speaker 2: like Steph Curry is amazing. Steph Curry is a better

846
00:40:18,400 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 2: player overall than James Harden. I'm not saying that it's not,

847
00:40:21,320 --> 00:40:23,600
Speaker 2: but Steph Curry or Klay Thompson or the guys that

848
00:40:23,719 --> 00:40:27,279
Speaker 2: Durant has been with before weren't just gonna go and

849
00:40:27,760 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 2: create a new version of offense because they have the

850
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:33,359
Speaker 2: ability to do that. We know Kyrie and Durant want

851
00:40:33,360 --> 00:40:37,560
Speaker 2: to play ISO. James Harden can do that for stretches too, obviously,

852
00:40:38,000 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 2: But James Harden is the answer to the questions that

853
00:40:40,760 --> 00:40:44,200
Speaker 2: we're asking of of I think that when they get

854
00:40:44,239 --> 00:40:48,560
Speaker 2: going and okay, this isn't working, Oh the ISOs aren't working,

855
00:40:49,040 --> 00:40:51,719
Speaker 2: I still have the break glass in case emergency, James

856
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,400
Speaker 2: Harden option. I know that sounds crazy. My answer is, oh,

857
00:40:55,880 --> 00:40:59,360
Speaker 2: oh so it's the playoffs and James Harden is the answer.

858
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,440
Speaker 2: That's the answer. Oh okay, hey guys, it's the playoffs

859
00:41:02,480 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 2: and Giannis is the answer. Because when has that been

860
00:41:04,520 --> 00:41:06,840
Speaker 2: the answer either, Like, we got to have one of

861
00:41:06,920 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: the answers has to have the answer this series that

862
00:41:09,680 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 2: we haven't actually seen before, and I think it's fair

863
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,200
Speaker 2: to have doubts about both. But I think at the

864
00:41:15,280 --> 00:41:18,000
Speaker 2: end of the day, it's very easy for me to

865
00:41:18,080 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 2: scenario where the series ends and we look back and say,

866
00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:24,600
Speaker 2: oh man, the Nets ended up having the two best

867
00:41:24,600 --> 00:41:27,880
Speaker 2: players in the series. I'm not saying that they do possible.

868
00:41:28,000 --> 00:41:29,759
Speaker 1: Look I don't I don't mind.

869
00:41:29,800 --> 00:41:32,319
Speaker 4: I don't mind just taking the Like I will say,

870
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 4: isn't this kind of your whole like, well, the Lakers

871
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:34,880
Speaker 4: just going everything?

872
00:41:36,440 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 2: I mean, there is a little bit like the the

873
00:41:38,400 --> 00:41:42,720
Speaker 2: the basketball. The pure basketball fan in me definitely wants

874
00:41:42,760 --> 00:41:44,799
Speaker 2: the Bucks to make this a series, and I think

875
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:46,920
Speaker 2: wants the Bucks to win some of these I never

876
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:49,919
Speaker 2: really know, just as a fan watching until the game's tip,

877
00:41:50,000 --> 00:41:52,160
Speaker 2: Like who am I actually rooting for? Until I just

878
00:41:52,239 --> 00:41:57,440
Speaker 2: feel it? But the Nets winning in five scenario feels

879
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:01,080
Speaker 2: like the death star of Lebron that just ended last night.

880
00:42:01,280 --> 00:42:04,040
Speaker 2: Maybe or maybe just for a season, but it feels

881
00:42:04,080 --> 00:42:06,879
Speaker 2: like we might just have this moment like I woke

882
00:42:06,920 --> 00:42:10,200
Speaker 2: up today feeling like, wow, is this what it feels

883
00:42:10,239 --> 00:42:12,239
Speaker 2: like to live in a world where other players and

884
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:15,640
Speaker 2: teams can win basketball games? It's great. We might last

885
00:42:15,680 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 2: like three days and then be like, oh so, now

886
00:42:18,160 --> 00:42:21,360
Speaker 2: it's the Nets for a while. Oh, we gotta trade

887
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:23,719
Speaker 2: Dameon Collide to the Lakers. We're gonna load up on

888
00:42:23,800 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: super duper teams now, Like, I don't want that scenario.

889
00:42:27,080 --> 00:42:30,560
Speaker 2: That's that's not good for basketball. So I but I

890
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:32,759
Speaker 2: don't think this is that. I don't think this is

891
00:42:33,000 --> 00:42:36,680
Speaker 2: just my nihilism kicking into the next option available. This

892
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:38,560
Speaker 2: is what I felt about the Nets all season. I

893
00:42:38,640 --> 00:42:41,920
Speaker 2: just think that they're so talented that they're just gonna

894
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 2: do this.

895
00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:45,120
Speaker 4: So you really don't can we emit THEO You're basically

896
00:42:45,120 --> 00:42:46,840
Speaker 4: saying defense does not matter.

897
00:42:47,400 --> 00:42:50,120
Speaker 2: No, I'm saying that defense doesn't matter if the offense

898
00:42:50,200 --> 00:42:51,160
Speaker 2: is that good offense.

899
00:42:51,239 --> 00:42:53,960
Speaker 4: Okay, No, that's fine, that's fine, But we have to

900
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:57,160
Speaker 4: we have to say that because like the gap between

901
00:42:57,200 --> 00:43:00,640
Speaker 4: the Bucks and the Nets offensively, like what this is like?

902
00:43:00,680 --> 00:43:00,879
Speaker 1: Man?

903
00:43:01,000 --> 00:43:03,040
Speaker 4: Like they're not putting up like numbers that are like

904
00:43:03,360 --> 00:43:05,640
Speaker 4: they're not averaging one point five points per possession here?

905
00:43:05,640 --> 00:43:07,040
Speaker 1: Man, well they.

906
00:43:06,920 --> 00:43:09,200
Speaker 2: Didn't in the regular season, but they were missing like

907
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 2: they almost never actually had.

908
00:43:12,640 --> 00:43:18,520
Speaker 4: Do you trust Katie often Achilles, Kyrie Irving who may

909
00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 4: miss for any number of reasons, Brandon and then James Harden.

910
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,759
Speaker 2: I mean we got like Flag Days coming up, we

911
00:43:26,800 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 2: got Father's Day, might take off a couple of games.

912
00:43:29,960 --> 00:43:30,600
Speaker 3: This is what I'm saying.

913
00:43:30,640 --> 00:43:32,480
Speaker 4: Like, and then on top of it, is just like

914
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:35,400
Speaker 4: the gap between these two teams defensively is massive.

915
00:43:35,760 --> 00:43:37,960
Speaker 2: So so here are a few just a few numbers.

916
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 2: And I realized the numbers only context, but here are

917
00:43:40,080 --> 00:43:42,239
Speaker 2: a few numbers that give me at least a few

918
00:43:42,320 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 2: answers or worries towards the Bucks end. So Number one,

919
00:43:46,200 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 2: in the regular season, the Nets had the number six

920
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:54,200
Speaker 2: best two point percentage on defense. That's surprising to me, Like,

921
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 2: what am I looking at that team and saying, Oh, okay,

922
00:43:56,600 --> 00:43:59,480
Speaker 2: They're gonna not let teams score inside the paint. That's

923
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:01,399
Speaker 2: obviously where the Bucks are trying to score. The Bucks

924
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:04,080
Speaker 2: were fourth best at two point percent offense. The Nets

925
00:44:04,080 --> 00:44:05,800
Speaker 2: were six best on defense. I don't know if that

926
00:44:05,840 --> 00:44:08,520
Speaker 2: will hold up. I don't trust that it will. It's interesting,

927
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:11,560
Speaker 2: and it definitely it held up pretty well against the Celtics,

928
00:44:11,560 --> 00:44:14,200
Speaker 2: who are not the Bucks. But it was a good sign.

929
00:44:14,760 --> 00:44:17,719
Speaker 2: The Bucks allowed the most three point attempts in the league.

930
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 2: We know that's what they do. They also allowed the

931
00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,840
Speaker 2: second worst three point percentage in the league or second

932
00:44:22,840 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 2: best thirty eight point four percent to opponents. So the

933
00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 2: Bucks are designed to say, hey, hey, shoot the threes.

934
00:44:29,640 --> 00:44:32,160
Speaker 2: We would love for you to shoot some threes, and

935
00:44:32,800 --> 00:44:35,280
Speaker 2: would you just try to shoot a little bit the nets.

936
00:44:35,400 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 2: Every player on the nets rotation other than poor Landry

937
00:44:38,560 --> 00:44:41,040
Speaker 2: Shaman at fifty eight percent, every other net is above

938
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 2: sixty percent true shooting. And then the other thing is

939
00:44:44,200 --> 00:44:47,319
Speaker 2: the Bucks have been playing at super fast pace this year.

940
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:50,680
Speaker 2: They're number two in the league in pace. And so

941
00:44:50,719 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 2: now I have this scenario where I just and I again,

942
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:58,560
Speaker 2: these numbers are all just numbers without context. But just

943
00:44:58,600 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 2: those numbers, I'm like, okay, I'm I imagining this running

944
00:45:02,239 --> 00:45:05,680
Speaker 2: up and down, back and forth, this high paced, fast

945
00:45:05,719 --> 00:45:08,799
Speaker 2: paced scenario where it's just turning into a shootout and

946
00:45:08,840 --> 00:45:11,480
Speaker 2: we're just shooting up threes and tons of offense flying

947
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 2: back and forth. And now Milwaukee's defense isn't mattering as

948
00:45:14,719 --> 00:45:17,040
Speaker 2: much as we all want the Bucks defense to matter.

949
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,399
Speaker 2: And those are just numbers that concern men.

950
00:45:20,560 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 5: The Bucks are first and second chance points with eighteen

951
00:45:24,239 --> 00:45:27,440
Speaker 5: a game. They're also one of the best offensive rating

952
00:45:28,080 --> 00:45:31,360
Speaker 5: offensive rebounding teams in the league. Their second in offensive rebounding,

953
00:45:31,680 --> 00:45:36,279
Speaker 5: the Nets are twentieth and defensive rebounding, so they're gonna

954
00:45:36,320 --> 00:45:39,000
Speaker 5: have more possessions throughout this series than the Nets.

955
00:45:39,360 --> 00:45:41,439
Speaker 3: Like, so even with.

956
00:45:41,440 --> 00:45:44,560
Speaker 5: The Bucks giving up all these three pointers, it's like,

957
00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 5: what does it matter if you're getting more possessions than

958
00:45:47,960 --> 00:45:50,360
Speaker 5: the other team and more chances to score and the

959
00:45:50,440 --> 00:45:54,399
Speaker 5: gap between these offenses really isn't that hot. I mean,

960
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,719
Speaker 5: what were the Nets were, you know, first offensive rate

961
00:45:57,760 --> 00:46:00,760
Speaker 5: in this season? What were the I mean the Bucks

962
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:04,960
Speaker 5: were still a top five offense. So yeah, so it's

963
00:46:05,080 --> 00:46:07,200
Speaker 5: just when you look at the fact that the Bucks

964
00:46:07,239 --> 00:46:12,040
Speaker 5: have a better defense, all this arguing between all of us,

965
00:46:12,239 --> 00:46:13,759
Speaker 5: all us telling me is that this is gonna be

966
00:46:13,760 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 5: a seven game series, and we all know in a

967
00:46:16,920 --> 00:46:18,440
Speaker 5: seven game series it's a coin flip.

968
00:46:18,640 --> 00:46:20,680
Speaker 4: See I want to go seven though, because you know,

969
00:46:20,719 --> 00:46:22,440
Speaker 4: I think you can bank on that with this. Like

970
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:25,400
Speaker 4: last time was a good example of this with Nuggets

971
00:46:25,440 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 4: Portland right where it's like that should have been a

972
00:46:27,560 --> 00:46:28,200
Speaker 4: seven game series.

973
00:46:28,239 --> 00:46:29,880
Speaker 1: Portland should have won that game and they didn't.

974
00:46:30,239 --> 00:46:33,200
Speaker 4: Like that's where sometimes like the mental makeup comes in, right,

975
00:46:33,239 --> 00:46:35,279
Speaker 4: the Blazers have a fourteen point lead and they just

976
00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:38,279
Speaker 4: collapse because the Nuggets were like, we're built for this,

977
00:46:39,320 --> 00:46:43,200
Speaker 4: and the Blazers were like, we have you used off

978
00:46:43,239 --> 00:46:47,400
Speaker 4: Nurkic wearing a stupid suit, Like that's that's what like that,

979
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 4: like this is where that comes from. But I'll tell

980
00:46:49,080 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 4: you this, Brandon, I don't like.

981
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 1: I do not like the Nets in the situation of adversity.

982
00:46:55,280 --> 00:46:59,319
Speaker 4: I I don't like this makeup like they they better

983
00:46:59,400 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 4: get up three one or three two, Like I don't.

984
00:47:03,040 --> 00:47:05,080
Speaker 4: I do not like their chances coming back in the

985
00:47:05,120 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 4: series for a team that has said Kyrie has said

986
00:47:07,680 --> 00:47:09,760
Speaker 4: things this season like it's not really bad a championship

987
00:47:09,760 --> 00:47:13,759
Speaker 4: for me, it's not the art, and Katie said things like,

988
00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:15,359
Speaker 4: you know, championships don't make me.

989
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:18,520
Speaker 2: Happy and does make him happy.

990
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:21,120
Speaker 4: And like, you know, James Harden is James Harden, right,

991
00:47:21,520 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 4: Like they also very clearly put this team together from

992
00:47:24,760 --> 00:47:26,359
Speaker 4: the construct of like all of our buddies, you're ina

993
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:27,880
Speaker 4: come and we're gonna win, and we're gonna win a

994
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:29,959
Speaker 4: title in Brooklyn and we don't have to try that hard.

995
00:47:30,000 --> 00:47:32,000
Speaker 1: Isn't this awesome? And I don't know that necessarily that's

996
00:47:32,000 --> 00:47:32,560
Speaker 1: how this works.

997
00:47:33,000 --> 00:47:37,120
Speaker 4: James Harden Strip Club Olympian I just don't know.

998
00:47:37,160 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 2: I don't I agree with all of that. I think

999
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:43,440
Speaker 2: at some point, so when I'm betting, like March Madness,

1000
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 2: and I'm watching these games and I bet on particular teams,

1001
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,640
Speaker 2: at some point it's a close game, it's a close battle,

1002
00:47:49,760 --> 00:47:52,920
Speaker 2: and suddenly the camera pans over to the sideline and

1003
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 2: there's that coach, and my heart sinks and I'm like,

1004
00:47:56,600 --> 00:48:02,480
Speaker 2: what did I do? Yeah again, I hear you, and yeah,

1005
00:48:02,880 --> 00:48:06,000
Speaker 2: and I agree. We see all these things with Durant

1006
00:48:06,040 --> 00:48:10,640
Speaker 2: and with Harden and with Kyrie. What about with Yanni's.

1007
00:48:10,280 --> 00:48:14,400
Speaker 6: Like, yeah, at some point, like at the end of

1008
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:17,400
Speaker 6: the day, you're willing to look over to that sideline

1009
00:48:17,400 --> 00:48:20,440
Speaker 6: and say that guy has to go out there and

1010
00:48:20,480 --> 00:48:24,160
Speaker 6: be definitively I think clearly the best player in the

1011
00:48:24,239 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 6: series in order for the Bucks to win the series.

1012
00:48:27,160 --> 00:48:28,839
Speaker 4: So I think the biggest thing, for the biggest thing

1013
00:48:28,840 --> 00:48:32,400
Speaker 4: for me on this is one Bud deserves credit for

1014
00:48:32,560 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 4: having adjusted the Miami series.

1015
00:48:33,960 --> 00:48:37,800
Speaker 1: It's okay to think that he's not going to Yannis.

1016
00:48:37,920 --> 00:48:38,560
Speaker 1: Here's a big thing.

1017
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:40,359
Speaker 4: I do think that he gets a bad rep He's

1018
00:48:40,400 --> 00:48:43,160
Speaker 4: dominated these other series. He ran into two matchups versus

1019
00:48:43,200 --> 00:48:46,399
Speaker 4: two great coaches, I love Steve Nash as a player.

1020
00:48:46,440 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 4: He's one of my top five of all time. I

1021
00:48:48,040 --> 00:48:50,959
Speaker 4: loved watching him play. It was incredible watching Steve Nash play.

1022
00:48:51,040 --> 00:48:52,799
Speaker 4: I have zero reason to think Steve Nash is going to.

1023
00:48:52,800 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 1: Come up with some sort of genius plan here, like I,

1024
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:57,240
Speaker 1: you can't.

1025
00:48:57,719 --> 00:48:59,600
Speaker 4: The only way that I can feel but feel like

1026
00:48:59,640 --> 00:49:01,440
Speaker 4: you do about the Bud situation is if I look

1027
00:49:01,480 --> 00:49:04,360
Speaker 4: across and go, oh no, and if you get Eric Spolstra,

1028
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:06,680
Speaker 4: I'm like, oh no. But if I look across and

1029
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:09,560
Speaker 4: Steve Nash, I'm like, this is the biggest thing brand is.

1030
00:49:09,680 --> 00:49:11,920
Speaker 4: I agree with almost everything that you said about the nets,

1031
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,880
Speaker 4: which is pretty much everything your arguments today about the

1032
00:49:14,920 --> 00:49:15,920
Speaker 4: Nets are bucks neutral.

1033
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:19,240
Speaker 1: You're just like, it doesn't matter. I don't like the matchup.

1034
00:49:20,040 --> 00:49:21,719
Speaker 4: And I think if you're especially if you're looking for

1035
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:24,600
Speaker 4: betting value, I think you get to bet the matchup.

1036
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:26,279
Speaker 1: It's always gonna work out for you.

1037
00:49:26,320 --> 00:49:29,839
Speaker 4: But we're seeing over and over again that I think

1038
00:49:29,920 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 4: matchups do provide betting value.

1039
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 1: That's why our Mavericks. Yeah, that why that that worked out.

1040
00:49:38,000 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 4: Is Like, if you dive into the into the matchup stuff,

1041
00:49:40,960 --> 00:49:42,799
Speaker 4: I think you find where the value is even if

1042
00:49:42,800 --> 00:49:46,000
Speaker 4: the bucks don't win because of the narrative power of

1043
00:49:46,200 --> 00:49:48,800
Speaker 4: just like the nets were better because they had three.

1044
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:51,960
Speaker 1: Guys, I do think that the value kind of has

1045
00:49:52,000 --> 00:49:52,600
Speaker 1: to go the other way.

1046
00:49:53,040 --> 00:49:53,160
Speaker 3: Uh.

1047
00:49:53,280 --> 00:49:55,080
Speaker 1: This has been good. This has been a really good discussion.

1048
00:49:55,160 --> 00:49:56,719
Speaker 1: Let's move on to the other series really quickly.

1049
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:58,480
Speaker 4: We're run long, but honestly, I don't care if this

1050
00:49:58,520 --> 00:50:00,600
Speaker 4: is a huge episode and I'm on the k next week's. So.

1051
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:05,799
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1081
00:51:30,000 --> 00:51:31,280
Speaker 1: Let's talk real quickly.

1082
00:51:31,560 --> 00:51:33,840
Speaker 4: Rahiem and I talk xers hawks the other day Rahim,

1083
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,680
Speaker 4: do you have anything new on Sexys Hawks if have

1084
00:51:36,680 --> 00:51:37,799
Speaker 4: you changed it where you're at at all?

1085
00:51:38,440 --> 00:51:41,560
Speaker 5: So I heard that, you know, I have a friend

1086
00:51:41,640 --> 00:51:45,839
Speaker 5: in the Sixers organization. They told me that if if

1087
00:51:45,880 --> 00:51:49,080
Speaker 5: the Wizards had actually pushed the series to six and.

1088
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 3: Be what a played.

1089
00:51:50,200 --> 00:51:53,719
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I think we're gonna see and be come

1090
00:51:53,800 --> 00:51:57,600
Speaker 5: back at some point. So I do think the Sixers

1091
00:51:57,600 --> 00:52:00,239
Speaker 5: will get through the series. But it's just it's a

1092
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:03,239
Speaker 5: matter of you know, how many games it's gonna be.

1093
00:52:04,080 --> 00:52:07,000
Speaker 4: So I bet MGM the official odsbrider of the Action

1094
00:52:07,280 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 4: Network podcast Over five and a half is minus won

1095
00:52:11,160 --> 00:52:14,480
Speaker 4: forty Brandon if we think that Joel's My concern is

1096
00:52:14,480 --> 00:52:16,839
Speaker 4: that Joel's gonna play Game one in this game two

1097
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:19,120
Speaker 4: and play Game three in this game four. Like I

1098
00:52:19,120 --> 00:52:21,279
Speaker 4: would pencil him in. I would put the over under

1099
00:52:21,320 --> 00:52:22,759
Speaker 4: on his games played in the series at three and

1100
00:52:22,760 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 4: a half. That's enough for me to think that the

1101
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:27,919
Speaker 4: Hawks can push this. I don't think they can win,

1102
00:52:28,640 --> 00:52:30,920
Speaker 4: but I can get in this series. I thought this

1103
00:52:31,000 --> 00:52:33,680
Speaker 4: was interesting. I can get Hawks plus one and a

1104
00:52:33,719 --> 00:52:36,840
Speaker 4: half at minus one forty five. I think that that'll

1105
00:52:36,840 --> 00:52:40,680
Speaker 4: probably go down after Game one. I'm kind of curious

1106
00:52:40,680 --> 00:52:42,360
Speaker 4: as to what you think about I know you haven't

1107
00:52:42,360 --> 00:52:44,719
Speaker 4: you don't care about this series much, but are you

1108
00:52:44,840 --> 00:52:45,640
Speaker 4: very top level on this?

1109
00:52:45,719 --> 00:52:47,160
Speaker 1: Just that the Sixers are better and they're gonna win.

1110
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:51,719
Speaker 2: So no, But it's because I don't have faith in

1111
00:52:51,800 --> 00:52:54,239
Speaker 2: Joel Embiid playing. You gave me three and a half

1112
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 2: games in the series for Embiid to play. I would

1113
00:52:56,520 --> 00:52:59,280
Speaker 2: hammer the under on that, Like, I just don't feel

1114
00:52:59,280 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 2: comfortable thinking it's Joelle Embiid. I hope that he plays.

1115
00:53:04,160 --> 00:53:06,320
Speaker 2: I want him to play, I want him to be healthy.

1116
00:53:06,400 --> 00:53:09,440
Speaker 2: I want the Sixers to be the Sixers. I want

1117
00:53:09,560 --> 00:53:11,520
Speaker 2: the best version of these teams to play each other,

1118
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:13,839
Speaker 2: and if the best version do, then the Sixers are

1119
00:53:13,840 --> 00:53:16,520
Speaker 2: gonna win. It's a matter of how many games. I

1120
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:20,280
Speaker 2: don't trust that Embid's gonna be out there. I don't

1121
00:53:20,320 --> 00:53:23,200
Speaker 2: love the over five and a half games because it's

1122
00:53:23,239 --> 00:53:25,840
Speaker 2: easy for me to see a scenario, especially if Embiid

1123
00:53:25,920 --> 00:53:29,000
Speaker 2: doesn't play, where it doesn't play much or at all,

1124
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:32,160
Speaker 2: where the Hawks just are a better team, kind of

1125
00:53:32,200 --> 00:53:35,840
Speaker 2: like they were against the Knicks, and we suddenly are like,

1126
00:53:35,920 --> 00:53:39,239
Speaker 2: oh man, they have a lot of more good players

1127
00:53:39,440 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 2: than the Sixers do, and there's a bench and depth problem,

1128
00:53:43,040 --> 00:53:46,680
Speaker 2: and oh man, like Phil, I don't think either one

1129
00:53:46,680 --> 00:53:48,680
Speaker 2: of these teams is gonna have a ton of adjustments.

1130
00:53:49,360 --> 00:53:51,440
Speaker 2: I think that if we watch a couple of games,

1131
00:53:51,719 --> 00:53:55,399
Speaker 2: we're gonna know, barring injuries, we're gonna look and be like, oh, yeah,

1132
00:53:55,440 --> 00:53:57,719
Speaker 2: that team is better. They're gonna win the series. We

1133
00:53:58,080 --> 00:54:01,120
Speaker 2: watch the Hawks for one game, and we all picked

1134
00:54:01,120 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 2: the Hawks going in, but we thought it was going

1135
00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:04,920
Speaker 2: to go long. Then we all saw one game against

1136
00:54:04,920 --> 00:54:07,000
Speaker 2: the Knicks and we're like, oh, yeah, no, this is over.

1137
00:54:07,640 --> 00:54:10,960
Speaker 2: It's a matter of when not if. I feel like

1138
00:54:11,040 --> 00:54:13,200
Speaker 2: I can see that in the series, and I don't

1139
00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:15,080
Speaker 2: know for sure which way it's going to go. I

1140
00:54:15,080 --> 00:54:16,800
Speaker 2: don't know if Embiid is going to be in or not.

1141
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:18,839
Speaker 2: But I think that we're going to see a game

1142
00:54:18,920 --> 00:54:20,759
Speaker 2: or two and be like, oh, yeah, well, we know

1143
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 2: how this is going to go, and we just need

1144
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:25,960
Speaker 2: to see it play out now. Even before Embiid got injured,

1145
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:28,840
Speaker 2: we were talking the three of us about that we

1146
00:54:28,880 --> 00:54:31,400
Speaker 2: thought the Hawks had maybe some value in the series,

1147
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 2: that we thought that Atlanta was maybe better than the

1148
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,680
Speaker 2: public thought, that they maybe could push them. I think

1149
00:54:37,719 --> 00:54:41,799
Speaker 2: even with a full healthy sixers team. I probably would

1150
00:54:41,840 --> 00:54:45,920
Speaker 2: have taken something like sixers in six that Atlanta would

1151
00:54:45,920 --> 00:54:49,120
Speaker 2: show up and make a good series of it, just

1152
00:54:49,160 --> 00:54:51,800
Speaker 2: with a lot of options that they have since McMillan

1153
00:54:51,800 --> 00:54:55,040
Speaker 2: took over for the team, including the playoffs. Now Atlanta

1154
00:54:55,120 --> 00:54:58,120
Speaker 2: is thirty one to twelve. That is a fifty nine

1155
00:54:58,200 --> 00:55:02,200
Speaker 2: win pace counting a playoff series, and they've had a

1156
00:55:02,239 --> 00:55:04,960
Speaker 2: top ten net rating, a top ten offense. Their defense

1157
00:55:05,120 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 2: looked much improved in the first round. The Hawks are

1158
00:55:10,160 --> 00:55:13,200
Speaker 2: not just going to roll over. I don't think there

1159
00:55:13,480 --> 00:55:17,600
Speaker 2: is this scenario where Trey Young just gets physically bullied

1160
00:55:17,800 --> 00:55:21,520
Speaker 2: by a bigger, stronger defense, and if he just gets

1161
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,120
Speaker 2: physically taken out of the series, then they might roll

1162
00:55:24,120 --> 00:55:25,399
Speaker 2: over because I don't know if they have a ton

1163
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,880
Speaker 2: of other options. But Philadelphia has struggled I think with

1164
00:55:29,080 --> 00:55:32,799
Speaker 2: smaller guards like Trey, so I don't know that he's

1165
00:55:32,840 --> 00:55:36,920
Speaker 2: just going to get totally taken out, and I don't know,

1166
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:39,960
Speaker 2: I don't trust em beat out there if he's not.

1167
00:55:40,160 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 2: I'm looking to play unders here with m beat out

1168
00:55:43,440 --> 00:55:45,719
Speaker 2: the Philly. Philly games have gone under ten of their

1169
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:49,240
Speaker 2: last thirteen. They tend to just kind of like buckle

1170
00:55:49,320 --> 00:55:51,000
Speaker 2: up and play defense and hope they can to find

1171
00:55:51,080 --> 00:55:54,759
Speaker 2: enough scoring. I don't really trust them to find enough

1172
00:55:54,800 --> 00:55:58,840
Speaker 2: scoring if Embiid isn't playing enough minutes. Philadelphia was twenty

1173
00:55:58,840 --> 00:56:01,480
Speaker 2: and five this season when Embid played at least thirty

1174
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:05,080
Speaker 2: three minutes, they were thirty three and nineteen otherwise. So

1175
00:56:06,040 --> 00:56:08,640
Speaker 2: even if he plays but plays limited minutes, which I

1176
00:56:08,719 --> 00:56:12,040
Speaker 2: think is an optimistic scenario for him to play but

1177
00:56:12,080 --> 00:56:15,960
Speaker 2: play limited minutes, even that I think gives some problems.

1178
00:56:16,000 --> 00:56:18,799
Speaker 2: So last I think in the first round ended up

1179
00:56:18,800 --> 00:56:22,719
Speaker 2: taking every single favorite to win the series. I think

1180
00:56:22,719 --> 00:56:25,480
Speaker 2: I'm taking the Hawks to win the series because I

1181
00:56:25,480 --> 00:56:28,799
Speaker 2: think that they're a good team that the Sixers are

1182
00:56:28,840 --> 00:56:30,960
Speaker 2: going to have to actually come out and beat them,

1183
00:56:31,360 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 2: and because I don't trust Embiid to play enough, and

1184
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:37,279
Speaker 2: because I don't trust the Sixers to be nimble to

1185
00:56:37,320 --> 00:56:40,240
Speaker 2: have a lot of flexibility of their answers. I don't

1186
00:56:40,280 --> 00:56:42,839
Speaker 2: know that the Hawks are the better team and should

1187
00:56:42,880 --> 00:56:45,080
Speaker 2: win the series, but I like the value on them

1188
00:56:45,239 --> 00:57:18,760
Speaker 2: where they're coming in right now.

1189
00:57:21,040 --> 00:57:21,320
Speaker 3: Hilin.

1190
00:57:21,400 --> 00:57:25,000
Speaker 4: Last night, after the Nuggets defeated the Portland Trail Lazers

1191
00:57:25,000 --> 00:57:28,440
Speaker 4: and the Suns defeated the Los Angeles Lakers, the defending champions.

1192
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:31,400
Speaker 4: I bet the Denver Nuggets to beat the Phoenix Suns

1193
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:32,240
Speaker 4: of plus one eighty.

1194
00:57:33,160 --> 00:57:33,720
Speaker 2: I saw that.

1195
00:57:34,520 --> 00:57:36,840
Speaker 4: I like the matchup for Denver here, and it's it's

1196
00:57:36,920 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 4: very easy to be like you picked Portland. Okay, again,

1197
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,400
Speaker 4: this is all matchup based. Portland should not have lost

1198
00:57:42,440 --> 00:57:44,040
Speaker 4: that series. I want to be very clear on this.

1199
00:57:44,840 --> 00:57:47,000
Speaker 4: I don't think I've said that before. And when I

1200
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:48,680
Speaker 4: meant was that the other team was better. No, no, no,

1201
00:57:48,720 --> 00:57:51,240
Speaker 4: Denver was much better. Denver was much better. It is

1202
00:57:51,280 --> 00:57:54,960
Speaker 4: an embarrassment to Portland that they lost that series. They

1203
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:57,080
Speaker 4: had all of these guards and Denver had none, and

1204
00:57:57,120 --> 00:57:58,680
Speaker 4: the one thing that you need in order to beat

1205
00:57:58,680 --> 00:58:01,280
Speaker 4: Portland is guards. And still the Nuggets were able to

1206
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:05,320
Speaker 4: beat them with Austin Rivers, Foco Compazo and Monte Morris. However,

1207
00:58:06,120 --> 00:58:08,720
Speaker 4: I liked the matchup of eighton versus the Lakers Bigs,

1208
00:58:08,720 --> 00:58:11,280
Speaker 4: and he acquitted himself very well. Even though he lost

1209
00:58:11,320 --> 00:58:13,280
Speaker 4: the minutes with Drummond and Ad on the floor, it

1210
00:58:13,360 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 4: wasn't so much that they got killed, and it allowed

1211
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:18,040
Speaker 4: them to be in games and win games in other

1212
00:58:18,080 --> 00:58:20,000
Speaker 4: ways even before Ad went out.

1213
00:58:20,560 --> 00:58:21,440
Speaker 1: So you got that.

1214
00:58:22,840 --> 00:58:26,040
Speaker 4: Aiden has played Jokic well in terms of scoring, and

1215
00:58:26,120 --> 00:58:28,320
Speaker 4: like eight Jokic has good things to say about him,

1216
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 4: but this is he's not ready for playoff Yokic.

1217
00:58:33,280 --> 00:58:38,240
Speaker 1: And honestly, like Jokic is tougher than ad I'm sorry,

1218
00:58:38,280 --> 00:58:41,240
Speaker 1: it's just true. Like Jokich is a better player than

1219
00:58:41,240 --> 00:58:44,520
Speaker 1: Anthony Davis. I don't know what to tell you, Like

1220
00:58:44,600 --> 00:58:47,760
Speaker 1: it's I get it. I understand the perception of Anthony Davis.

1221
00:58:47,800 --> 00:58:49,000
Speaker 1: The Kole Yokic is the MVP.

1222
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:51,040
Speaker 4: He's one of the top five beast back players in

1223
00:58:51,040 --> 00:58:53,760
Speaker 4: the league right now, and in the playoffs, he's one

1224
00:58:53,800 --> 00:58:58,120
Speaker 4: of Like I'll I'll give you Kevin Durantz better than him.

1225
00:58:58,360 --> 00:59:01,240
Speaker 1: I don't know who else. So I think he's better.

1226
00:59:01,080 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 3: Than Kevin Durant. I'm gonna be honest with you.

1227
00:59:03,360 --> 00:59:05,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know you do. You think everyone's better than

1228
00:59:05,160 --> 00:59:05,680
Speaker 1: Kevin Durant.

1229
00:59:05,920 --> 00:59:10,760
Speaker 4: So, but Brandon, I like, I like the Nuggets in

1230
00:59:10,800 --> 00:59:13,200
Speaker 4: this series, and I know that everyone's gonna be like, Yeah,

1231
00:59:13,200 --> 00:59:14,960
Speaker 4: who's gonna guard book They're gonna put two on ball,

1232
00:59:15,000 --> 00:59:16,440
Speaker 4: They're gonna get the ball out of his hands.

1233
00:59:16,240 --> 00:59:17,840
Speaker 1: The way that they do with every other guard.

1234
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:19,600
Speaker 4: And Booker's not gonna rise up or he is up

1235
00:59:19,600 --> 00:59:21,560
Speaker 4: from forty five feet and take picks at thirty feet.

1236
00:59:21,800 --> 00:59:25,240
Speaker 4: The way that Damian Lillard did. The Nuggets defensive scheme

1237
00:59:25,320 --> 00:59:28,000
Speaker 4: is very sound. It's very sound. They got Gordon, they

1238
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:30,200
Speaker 4: can put on Booker for stretches. Chris Paul can have

1239
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:31,760
Speaker 4: a big series, but Chris is not at a point

1240
00:59:31,760 --> 00:59:34,600
Speaker 4: in his career where he's gonna be like averaging thirty points.

1241
00:59:34,880 --> 00:59:36,800
Speaker 1: That's that's not a thing.

1242
00:59:37,120 --> 00:59:38,600
Speaker 4: Jay Crowder is gonna have to make threes, and he

1243
00:59:38,600 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 4: made him last night, but he hasn't made him in

1244
00:59:40,040 --> 00:59:42,120
Speaker 4: the rest of the playoffs. He's he hasn't shot great

1245
00:59:42,160 --> 00:59:44,120
Speaker 4: from He's a very inconsistent shooter.

1246
00:59:44,680 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 1: I think Denver's live.

1247
00:59:46,440 --> 00:59:48,040
Speaker 3: Is will coming back for the series.

1248
00:59:48,680 --> 00:59:49,400
Speaker 1: Well, yeah, he'll.

1249
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:51,320
Speaker 4: I thought he's gonna be back for Game four. I

1250
00:59:51,320 --> 00:59:53,760
Speaker 4: think he'll. I don't know if I'm willing to say

1251
00:59:53,760 --> 00:59:55,320
Speaker 4: that he'll be back for Game one. I think he'll

1252
00:59:55,320 --> 00:59:56,600
Speaker 4: be back at least by Game three.

1253
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,880
Speaker 2: I think that Denver is live for sure. You could

1254
01:00:00,080 --> 01:00:02,080
Speaker 2: take the three of us and some dude off the

1255
01:00:02,120 --> 01:00:05,520
Speaker 2: street and put us with Jokic and Denver would be live. Like.

1256
01:00:05,560 --> 01:00:07,760
Speaker 2: That's the respect that we have decided we have to

1257
01:00:07,800 --> 01:00:10,600
Speaker 2: give to Nicole Jokic at this point. So, yes, the

1258
01:00:10,640 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 2: Nuggets are alive. As long as Yokic is out there,

1259
01:00:13,440 --> 01:00:15,480
Speaker 2: they're going to have a chance. They're not going to

1260
01:00:15,600 --> 01:00:17,320
Speaker 2: roll over in any game. They're not gonna roll over

1261
01:00:17,320 --> 01:00:20,520
Speaker 2: in the series. Phoenix is not Portland.

1262
01:00:20,720 --> 01:00:25,480
Speaker 4: Like, you're very top line today. You're very much like

1263
01:00:25,480 --> 01:00:28,400
Speaker 4: like all year, you're like coming up with machinations like ooh,

1264
01:00:28,560 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 4: but Joe Ingles has the highest true shooting percentage and ooh,

1265
01:00:31,920 --> 01:00:33,480
Speaker 4: what if we do this? And then we get in

1266
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:36,720
Speaker 4: this podcast with actual matchups and you're like, yeah, but

1267
01:00:36,760 --> 01:00:37,920
Speaker 4: like the other team's better.

1268
01:00:38,600 --> 01:00:43,960
Speaker 2: I just took Atlanta. If you Philadelphia, come on, Phoenix's

1269
01:00:44,040 --> 01:00:46,720
Speaker 2: number three. Phoenix had the number three offense this season.

1270
01:00:46,960 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 2: Portland had the number two offense. We just saw Portland

1271
01:00:49,880 --> 01:00:53,400
Speaker 2: score at will on this brilliant defensive scheme that Denver

1272
01:00:53,440 --> 01:00:57,760
Speaker 2: apparently has, and Portland the Phoenix is gonna score unless

1273
01:00:57,800 --> 01:01:01,360
Speaker 2: Chris Paul's shoulder falls off again. Phoenix's gonna score their points,

1274
01:01:01,640 --> 01:01:06,560
Speaker 2: but actually plays defense, and like they're going, you know,

1275
01:01:07,000 --> 01:01:10,200
Speaker 2: I think that Ayton can at least kind of sort

1276
01:01:10,200 --> 01:01:13,720
Speaker 2: of hold his own against Jokic enough some kind of

1277
01:01:13,760 --> 01:01:16,920
Speaker 2: like Nurkic did enough some like his size is going

1278
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 2: to be a factor. He fouled out only twice all year.

1279
01:01:19,880 --> 01:01:22,280
Speaker 2: He did fall out in one of the games against Jokic.

1280
01:01:22,360 --> 01:01:24,480
Speaker 2: But I think you can hang in there, and you've

1281
01:01:24,520 --> 01:01:28,000
Speaker 2: got all those Phoenix wings and length, something that Portland

1282
01:01:28,040 --> 01:01:30,600
Speaker 2: didn't really have to try out very much of. I

1283
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 2: think that I think they can really get into Michael

1284
01:01:34,400 --> 01:01:37,640
Speaker 2: Porter Junior. I don't know that I trust him just

1285
01:01:37,680 --> 01:01:40,120
Speaker 2: because he had a good last game and a half

1286
01:01:40,240 --> 01:01:43,120
Speaker 2: that he's going to show up again all series. And

1287
01:01:43,840 --> 01:01:46,160
Speaker 2: this is still a team. Like we just saw how

1288
01:01:46,240 --> 01:01:49,280
Speaker 2: great Rivers and Faku and Morris were, but it was

1289
01:01:49,320 --> 01:01:53,440
Speaker 2: against the Blazers. It was they were awesome against no defense.

1290
01:01:53,440 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 2: They're awesome against the three of us and two guys

1291
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:59,160
Speaker 2: on the street defense. That's what they were awesome against.

1292
01:02:00,200 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 2: And I just it's I can see a scenario where

1293
01:02:03,680 --> 01:02:06,600
Speaker 2: after a few games we said this, I know, we

1294
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:09,840
Speaker 2: just said this about the series last time against the Blazers,

1295
01:02:10,000 --> 01:02:13,080
Speaker 2: that Denver just doesn't have the firepower and it didn't

1296
01:02:13,080 --> 01:02:16,720
Speaker 2: matter because Portland didn't have any defense and Denver scored anyway.

1297
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:21,120
Speaker 2: I feel like this the most likely scenario to me

1298
01:02:21,840 --> 01:02:25,360
Speaker 2: is that Phoenix wraps up this series not comfortably, because

1299
01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:28,120
Speaker 2: nothing's gonna be comfortable against Denver. But I think that

1300
01:02:28,240 --> 01:02:31,040
Speaker 2: the team that is gonna look embarrassed when this series

1301
01:02:31,080 --> 01:02:35,040
Speaker 2: comes out is Portland because I think that Denver is

1302
01:02:35,120 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 2: still they don't have guards. They have these they have

1303
01:02:40,000 --> 01:02:43,280
Speaker 2: these guys off the street playing garden whoever that they're finding.

1304
01:02:43,400 --> 01:02:46,200
Speaker 2: And they were great against Portland. Credit to each of them,

1305
01:02:46,280 --> 01:02:49,840
Speaker 2: they've been awesome. But Phoenix is not Portland, and they're

1306
01:02:49,880 --> 01:02:52,880
Speaker 2: going to defend. Chris Paul is going to defend. Their

1307
01:02:52,880 --> 01:02:56,880
Speaker 2: wings are going to defend. And I don't know. I'm

1308
01:02:56,920 --> 01:02:59,200
Speaker 2: again saying I don't know. I can trust Denver to score,

1309
01:02:59,280 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 2: and I said it last series and I was wrong.

1310
01:03:01,280 --> 01:03:04,160
Speaker 2: They scored anytime they felt like it, anyway they felt

1311
01:03:04,200 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 2: like it. And maybe Yoka just just the answer. But

1312
01:03:07,680 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 2: I can see the scenario where we get a few

1313
01:03:09,400 --> 01:03:12,640
Speaker 2: games in and we look and we're like, yeah, Denver,

1314
01:03:13,200 --> 01:03:16,880
Speaker 2: great run, great, great job to win a playoff series

1315
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:19,000
Speaker 2: with this version of the team, but they just don't

1316
01:03:19,040 --> 01:03:22,720
Speaker 2: have enough against a really good Phoenix Suns team. And

1317
01:03:22,920 --> 01:03:26,080
Speaker 2: my goodness, how do the Blazers not beat this team

1318
01:03:26,280 --> 01:03:28,280
Speaker 2: that's that's the angle that I've got right now.

1319
01:03:28,320 --> 01:03:29,720
Speaker 1: So I get what you're saying.

1320
01:03:30,120 --> 01:03:34,280
Speaker 4: I get what you're saying as somebody that sounds like

1321
01:03:34,320 --> 01:03:35,880
Speaker 4: it belongs on a morning show.

1322
01:03:36,080 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 1: I just think they're better.

1323
01:03:37,920 --> 01:03:40,600
Speaker 4: My question for you, though, is like rahee, let's get

1324
01:03:40,600 --> 01:03:42,440
Speaker 4: to you for a second, Like, I just think there's

1325
01:03:42,560 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 4: value on Denver. Like, it's fine if you like the

1326
01:03:45,560 --> 01:03:47,959
Speaker 4: Suns are better, it's value here.

1327
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:51,120
Speaker 5: I think the plus one seventy two is just it's

1328
01:03:51,160 --> 01:03:54,200
Speaker 5: way too like I grew with Matt and then I

1329
01:03:54,240 --> 01:03:56,800
Speaker 5: just think there's some matchup with dvantages for Denver. Like

1330
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:02,080
Speaker 5: the Suns, there were twenty fourth and opponent field goal

1331
01:04:02,120 --> 01:04:04,600
Speaker 5: percentage at the rim, giving them sixty five percent.

1332
01:04:04,640 --> 01:04:07,200
Speaker 3: That's not good when you're facing Jokic, you know.

1333
01:04:07,960 --> 01:04:11,360
Speaker 5: So to me, as as great as this Sun's defense

1334
01:04:11,400 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 5: has played, they've had their leaks, specifically at the rim.

1335
01:04:16,960 --> 01:04:19,560
Speaker 5: They're not great at defending the mid range, which is

1336
01:04:19,600 --> 01:04:23,439
Speaker 5: you know, another area in which the Nuggets score well

1337
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:27,440
Speaker 5: with Michael Porter junior. And so it's just the Nuggets

1338
01:04:27,480 --> 01:04:29,919
Speaker 5: are gonna have their opportunities to win games. I think

1339
01:04:29,960 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 5: the plus one seventy two plus one eighty whoever the

1340
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 5: line is now. It's definitely a little too high. I

1341
01:04:35,560 --> 01:04:38,280
Speaker 5: think we forget that this is this This has been

1342
01:04:38,320 --> 01:04:42,960
Speaker 5: the Sun's real first playoff experience other than you know,

1343
01:04:43,080 --> 01:04:44,840
Speaker 5: Chris Paul and Jay Crowder and the rest of these

1344
01:04:44,840 --> 01:04:47,680
Speaker 5: guys are young, and they played a beat up Lakers team.

1345
01:04:47,760 --> 01:04:50,160
Speaker 5: They didn't they didn't play a Lakers team that was

1346
01:04:50,400 --> 01:04:53,480
Speaker 5: you know rolling. I mean, Lebron James and Anthony Davis

1347
01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:56,800
Speaker 5: just came back from injuries. This Nuggets team actually has

1348
01:04:56,840 --> 01:04:59,840
Speaker 5: an identity. So I think I think it's a closer series.

1349
01:05:00,200 --> 01:05:01,919
Speaker 5: Do I want to do I actually want to bet

1350
01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:05,200
Speaker 5: the series. No, but because I think the Suns are

1351
01:05:05,240 --> 01:05:08,840
Speaker 5: eventually gonna win out. But I think game by game,

1352
01:05:09,000 --> 01:05:12,080
Speaker 5: I'm gonna be looking to play my spots on Denver

1353
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:14,560
Speaker 5: and the Suns. I think the Sun's probably win Game one,

1354
01:05:15,040 --> 01:05:16,600
Speaker 5: I like, I mean, they're four and a half point

1355
01:05:16,640 --> 01:05:19,400
Speaker 5: favorites in Game one, so I'm looking to the Suns there.

1356
01:05:19,480 --> 01:05:22,040
Speaker 5: But I don't think they're gonna run away with this

1357
01:05:22,120 --> 01:05:23,120
Speaker 5: series by any means.

1358
01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:26,320
Speaker 1: But hang on, hang on, hang on, Brandon, because you've

1359
01:05:26,320 --> 01:05:28,160
Speaker 1: been taking the top level approach. Who's the best player

1360
01:05:28,160 --> 01:05:29,920
Speaker 1: in the series for sure?

1361
01:05:30,000 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 2: Yokitch by A wide margin. But here, here's here's the thing. Rahim.

1362
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:39,520
Speaker 2: You said on the Bucks and on the Nuggets, there's value.

1363
01:05:39,520 --> 01:05:42,600
Speaker 2: There's value on this plus one eighty the plus long number.

1364
01:05:42,880 --> 01:05:44,920
Speaker 2: But I think that the better team is gonna win

1365
01:05:44,920 --> 01:05:47,720
Speaker 2: the series, then there's not value. You can't win money.

1366
01:05:47,960 --> 01:05:50,280
Speaker 2: But like, this is what I do. I take the

1367
01:05:50,320 --> 01:05:53,200
Speaker 2: good plus odds and claim to have value on it,

1368
01:05:53,280 --> 01:05:56,040
Speaker 2: and then I have value in like Game five, and

1369
01:05:56,280 --> 01:05:58,360
Speaker 2: I lose the value when they lose the series. Like

1370
01:05:58,560 --> 01:06:00,160
Speaker 2: either you win the series and your ticket pay is

1371
01:06:00,200 --> 01:06:01,760
Speaker 2: off or you don't. You can't have both.

1372
01:06:01,800 --> 01:06:04,960
Speaker 4: There's like you can cash out because you can cash

1373
01:06:04,960 --> 01:06:05,960
Speaker 4: out at that MGM.

1374
01:06:06,840 --> 01:06:08,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, well there here's the thing.

1375
01:06:08,720 --> 01:06:12,320
Speaker 5: Here's the thing with there being value, Like you're looking

1376
01:06:12,360 --> 01:06:15,360
Speaker 5: at it from a numbers perspectives. So if the odds

1377
01:06:15,400 --> 01:06:18,760
Speaker 5: makers are projecting something to happen fifty percent of the time,

1378
01:06:18,840 --> 01:06:20,960
Speaker 5: and you think it's gonna happen fifty five percent of

1379
01:06:21,000 --> 01:06:22,040
Speaker 5: the time, there's value.

1380
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:25,880
Speaker 2: I agree. So now may I have my Joe Ingle's credit?

1381
01:06:27,000 --> 01:06:28,720
Speaker 3: You can you can get you Joe Ingles credit.

1382
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:32,720
Speaker 1: I mean, I'm not mad at that, but BEGM and

1383
01:06:32,760 --> 01:06:35,040
Speaker 1: cashed out. I should have not listen you at.

1384
01:06:34,960 --> 01:06:37,280
Speaker 2: All I like. I like Sons. I don't think this

1385
01:06:37,320 --> 01:06:39,439
Speaker 2: is out yet. I've only just seen a series line,

1386
01:06:39,480 --> 01:06:41,680
Speaker 2: but I would be looking for Sons at minus one

1387
01:06:41,680 --> 01:06:44,720
Speaker 2: point five, so the Sons still win in in six

1388
01:06:44,800 --> 01:06:47,120
Speaker 2: or fewer games. I think that's the angle that I

1389
01:06:47,160 --> 01:06:49,240
Speaker 2: would play. Is that out yet anywhere?

1390
01:06:49,400 --> 01:06:51,760
Speaker 4: Yeah, I've got a line at a book which you

1391
01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:52,240
Speaker 4: won't mention.

1392
01:06:53,800 --> 01:06:57,720
Speaker 1: The one is Sons. So again the son's mind, what

1393
01:06:57,880 --> 01:06:58,120
Speaker 1: you want?

1394
01:06:58,120 --> 01:06:58,919
Speaker 3: Which one did you want?

1395
01:06:59,080 --> 01:07:00,200
Speaker 2: Minus one point five.

1396
01:07:00,160 --> 01:07:01,680
Speaker 1: Sons minus one eighteen?

1397
01:07:02,400 --> 01:07:05,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, so to me, Sons minus two twenty five. I'm

1398
01:07:05,600 --> 01:07:07,440
Speaker 2: not touching that. I don't see the value in that.

1399
01:07:07,520 --> 01:07:10,280
Speaker 2: I agree by the numbers, the Nuggets plus one to

1400
01:07:10,280 --> 01:07:13,680
Speaker 2: eighty is the value player right now. I would look

1401
01:07:13,760 --> 01:07:16,160
Speaker 2: to play that. You know, that just means Suns win

1402
01:07:16,200 --> 01:07:19,680
Speaker 2: the series, but not in seven. If the Suns, if

1403
01:07:19,720 --> 01:07:22,320
Speaker 2: this goes to seven. And I've seen what the Nuggets

1404
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:24,320
Speaker 2: have done the last few years, and I've seen what

1405
01:07:24,400 --> 01:07:26,520
Speaker 2: Chris Paul has done in some of the brightest moments,

1406
01:07:26,720 --> 01:07:28,920
Speaker 2: I'm not sure I want to be riding with Phoenix

1407
01:07:28,960 --> 01:07:31,800
Speaker 2: in that spot anyways. Like I'm pretty I'm pretty sure

1408
01:07:31,800 --> 01:07:34,280
Speaker 2: I don't want to bet against Jokic in that spot anyhow,

1409
01:07:34,720 --> 01:07:38,320
Speaker 2: So you give me Sons to win the series, just

1410
01:07:38,360 --> 01:07:40,560
Speaker 2: not in seven, and you've cut the odds in half,

1411
01:07:40,640 --> 01:07:42,240
Speaker 2: and now I actually have a playable number that I

1412
01:07:42,240 --> 01:07:43,200
Speaker 2: feel pretty good about.

1413
01:07:43,480 --> 01:07:47,680
Speaker 1: I have another hot take. This is the Western Conference Finals.

1414
01:07:47,800 --> 01:07:50,600
Speaker 2: Really, because I think that the other series is the

1415
01:07:50,640 --> 01:07:51,800
Speaker 2: Western Conference Finals.

1416
01:07:51,800 --> 01:07:56,080
Speaker 4: I think this is the Western Conference Finals. Look, you

1417
01:07:56,080 --> 01:07:58,160
Speaker 4: need to go back and watch Jazz Suns this year.

1418
01:07:58,640 --> 01:08:00,000
Speaker 4: Go back and go back and watch those.

1419
01:08:00,560 --> 01:08:04,760
Speaker 5: It's a bad the Suns have dominated them like it

1420
01:08:04,840 --> 01:08:05,360
Speaker 5: has Like.

1421
01:08:06,880 --> 01:08:10,040
Speaker 4: It's a bad matchup for Utah. Look, I'll tell you this, well,

1422
01:08:10,040 --> 01:08:11,800
Speaker 4: we'll touch on this real briefly. I don't care who

1423
01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:14,320
Speaker 4: wins tonight. I don't care who wins tonight. I'm betting

1424
01:08:14,400 --> 01:08:15,280
Speaker 4: Utah on the next series.

1425
01:08:15,960 --> 01:08:16,280
Speaker 3: Really.

1426
01:08:16,600 --> 01:08:18,519
Speaker 1: Yeah, I know we talked about it, Raheim, I know,

1427
01:08:18,720 --> 01:08:19,040
Speaker 1: I know.

1428
01:08:19,160 --> 01:08:24,000
Speaker 4: But but look, the Clippers defense isn't good enough. Flat

1429
01:08:24,000 --> 01:08:26,280
Speaker 4: out yeah, the Clippers defense isn't good enough. The Mavericks

1430
01:08:26,280 --> 01:08:29,000
Speaker 4: defense is bad. Like the Clippers should have won this

1431
01:08:29,120 --> 01:08:34,040
Speaker 4: series four two. Yeah, And I bet Mavericks plus two

1432
01:08:34,080 --> 01:08:35,320
Speaker 4: and a half. And I bet Maverick plus one and

1433
01:08:35,400 --> 01:08:37,479
Speaker 4: a half because I thought there was value on it

1434
01:08:37,479 --> 01:08:39,720
Speaker 4: because of the matchup, and I get that, but like

1435
01:08:40,280 --> 01:08:42,560
Speaker 4: the Mavericks do have all these flaws and the Clippers,

1436
01:08:42,600 --> 01:08:44,519
Speaker 4: like the Clippers absolutely should have won that last game

1437
01:08:44,520 --> 01:08:47,559
Speaker 4: and they just don't, Like I can't. There are there

1438
01:08:47,560 --> 01:08:50,480
Speaker 4: are just times, and the Clippers are an unseerious team.

1439
01:08:50,840 --> 01:08:56,759
Speaker 4: They're just not a serious team. So uh, everyone, look, Brandon,

1440
01:08:56,800 --> 01:08:59,000
Speaker 4: do not get sucked in on the Luca thing. I

1441
01:08:59,080 --> 01:09:02,240
Speaker 4: know you're going, Do not get sucked in on the

1442
01:09:02,320 --> 01:09:06,000
Speaker 4: Luca thing. It's awesome. He's incredible. He's probably like the

1443
01:09:06,040 --> 01:09:08,800
Speaker 4: second best player in the playoffs right now, if not

1444
01:09:08,840 --> 01:09:10,720
Speaker 4: the best, like he might honestly be. Like he has

1445
01:09:10,760 --> 01:09:14,679
Speaker 4: played as well, if not better than Yokic. He's been incredible. Yeah,

1446
01:09:15,200 --> 01:09:20,120
Speaker 4: against he's a Zubos. But like, in general, this Mavericks

1447
01:09:20,120 --> 01:09:27,040
Speaker 4: team is coming to the battle with Kliba and Porzingis

1448
01:09:27,200 --> 01:09:31,160
Speaker 4: and GSJA does not deserve the disrespect. TSJA is actually good.

1449
01:09:31,720 --> 01:09:35,160
Speaker 4: DFS is pretty good. But like Brandon firepower wise, Like

1450
01:09:35,280 --> 01:09:36,440
Speaker 4: I get what you're saying.

1451
01:09:37,280 --> 01:09:38,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, but what bright here?

1452
01:09:39,640 --> 01:09:43,640
Speaker 5: The Mavericks play a two three zone with Bobone and

1453
01:09:43,760 --> 01:09:46,439
Speaker 5: Chris Straps in the first half and just let the

1454
01:09:46,439 --> 01:09:49,559
Speaker 5: Clippers shoot, like and it worked.

1455
01:09:49,600 --> 01:09:53,000
Speaker 3: For a whole half, like I've never seen anything like

1456
01:09:53,040 --> 01:09:53,240
Speaker 3: it was.

1457
01:09:53,280 --> 01:09:56,760
Speaker 5: It's just like I thought, you know, a couple of

1458
01:09:56,800 --> 01:09:59,519
Speaker 5: years ago when Golden State was making this run, I

1459
01:09:59,640 --> 01:10:03,000
Speaker 5: thought this small ball thing would be here forever and

1460
01:10:03,520 --> 01:10:05,719
Speaker 5: you'll just be able to play big guys off the floor.

1461
01:10:06,040 --> 01:10:07,960
Speaker 3: And it feels like now we're seeing a.

1462
01:10:07,960 --> 01:10:12,599
Speaker 5: Shift where if you have bigs, they can hold their own.

1463
01:10:13,680 --> 01:10:15,719
Speaker 5: They they could stop you from driving to the paint,

1464
01:10:16,000 --> 01:10:17,720
Speaker 5: which is what they did in that first half. Now

1465
01:10:17,760 --> 01:10:19,720
Speaker 5: in the second half, the Clippers start to picking apart

1466
01:10:19,760 --> 01:10:23,640
Speaker 5: and start to make open shots. But I'm kind of

1467
01:10:23,680 --> 01:10:26,439
Speaker 5: with you on the Jazz being able to have answers

1468
01:10:26,479 --> 01:10:28,320
Speaker 5: for everything that the Clippers want to do.

1469
01:10:29,200 --> 01:10:29,800
Speaker 1: Brand on anything.

1470
01:10:30,640 --> 01:10:33,479
Speaker 2: I'm confused what I'm supposedly saying on this am I

1471
01:10:33,520 --> 01:10:36,759
Speaker 2: saying that the Jazz have answers for the next series,

1472
01:10:36,800 --> 01:10:39,280
Speaker 2: but no answers for the series after that. Is I

1473
01:10:39,320 --> 01:10:40,439
Speaker 2: just want to know what I'm saying.

1474
01:10:40,680 --> 01:10:43,800
Speaker 4: Yes, because they're not they're playing actually serious franchises.

1475
01:10:44,960 --> 01:10:49,280
Speaker 2: Fair So, Yeah, So I have going into the playoffs,

1476
01:10:49,360 --> 01:10:54,960
Speaker 2: I had Nets Jazz as the finals matchup plus twelve hundred. Okay,

1477
01:10:55,400 --> 01:10:59,200
Speaker 2: that is looking pretty good right now? Sure, only it's

1478
01:10:59,240 --> 01:11:02,800
Speaker 2: maybe not that feels I'm starting to think about that

1479
01:11:03,280 --> 01:11:07,280
Speaker 2: maybe that is a ticket to sell because Rahim, you

1480
01:11:07,400 --> 01:11:10,160
Speaker 2: just talked about how big men are proving that they're awesome.

1481
01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:11,919
Speaker 2: They're going to stay on the court and make a difference.

1482
01:11:13,240 --> 01:11:17,599
Speaker 2: I am worried about Rudy Gobert. Whatever are the looking

1483
01:11:17,680 --> 01:11:22,880
Speaker 2: at the matchups going forward. I feel like we should

1484
01:11:22,920 --> 01:11:26,040
Speaker 2: all take this moment to really appreciate how awesome the

1485
01:11:26,120 --> 01:11:29,960
Speaker 2: Jazz are and how great Rudy Gobert's defense is, because

1486
01:11:30,000 --> 01:11:32,680
Speaker 2: here are some of the scenarios that might possibly come up.

1487
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:36,679
Speaker 2: We might get Gobert against Jokic in the Western Conference finals.

1488
01:11:37,320 --> 01:11:41,040
Speaker 2: Uh oh, that hasn't gone well. We might get Gobert

1489
01:11:41,640 --> 01:11:44,120
Speaker 2: put in the pick and rolls a thousand times against

1490
01:11:44,200 --> 01:11:48,000
Speaker 2: Chris Paul and Devin Booker. Uh oh. We might get

1491
01:11:48,040 --> 01:11:51,280
Speaker 2: Gobert against Luka Doncic in the next round in the

1492
01:11:51,280 --> 01:11:55,360
Speaker 2: torture chamber, one thousand pick and rolls per night. Uh oh,

1493
01:11:55,439 --> 01:11:58,839
Speaker 2: not great. And in the best scenario, we get Gobert

1494
01:11:58,880 --> 01:12:02,240
Speaker 2: against the Clippers where he's just kind of like neutral

1495
01:12:02,360 --> 01:12:04,439
Speaker 2: because they just want to shoot jump shots anyway, so

1496
01:12:04,520 --> 01:12:07,360
Speaker 2: at least Gobert doesn't hurt you in that matchup, but

1497
01:12:07,400 --> 01:12:10,519
Speaker 2: his defense is not as valuable as it's supposed to be.

1498
01:12:11,479 --> 01:12:13,439
Speaker 2: This is the thing that we've all said against the

1499
01:12:13,479 --> 01:12:16,240
Speaker 2: Jazz all season. I moved off of it because I

1500
01:12:16,360 --> 01:12:19,519
Speaker 2: just was I did the big picture thing. The Jazz,

1501
01:12:19,560 --> 01:12:23,120
Speaker 2: I think are the best team in the West on paper,

1502
01:12:23,320 --> 01:12:27,240
Speaker 2: in theory against enough teams, enough series, But the whole

1503
01:12:27,280 --> 01:12:29,280
Speaker 2: thing is that their offense is really good, and then

1504
01:12:29,320 --> 01:12:32,200
Speaker 2: they have this great defense behind it, and I'm not

1505
01:12:32,439 --> 01:12:35,320
Speaker 2: feeling so great about the defense and what the matchups

1506
01:12:35,360 --> 01:12:38,040
Speaker 2: look like and what Gobert is supposed to be. So

1507
01:12:38,080 --> 01:12:41,000
Speaker 2: I did as I was up until three last night

1508
01:12:41,040 --> 01:12:42,680
Speaker 2: prepping and starting to look ahead to some of these

1509
01:12:42,760 --> 01:12:44,720
Speaker 2: series because I just really haven't looked a ton at

1510
01:12:44,720 --> 01:12:47,400
Speaker 2: the last series yet with so much up in the air.

1511
01:12:48,000 --> 01:12:52,919
Speaker 2: But I do get worried about Gobert at bat mgm

1512
01:12:53,080 --> 01:12:57,799
Speaker 2: our podcast sponsor the favorite to win the Finals MVP

1513
01:12:58,240 --> 01:13:01,719
Speaker 2: at this moment in time, I love this Donvan Mitchell.

1514
01:13:02,000 --> 01:13:06,320
Speaker 1: It's great. Why Jazz are so overvalued right now? Hilarious?

1515
01:13:06,360 --> 01:13:06,639
Speaker 5: Wow.

1516
01:13:07,400 --> 01:13:13,240
Speaker 2: Mitchell is favored to be the NBA Finals MVP on

1517
01:13:13,360 --> 01:13:17,240
Speaker 2: June fourth, twenty twenty one. It's on the calendar Donovan

1518
01:13:17,280 --> 01:13:21,640
Speaker 2: Mitchell is the favorite. What are we doing? Like, I

1519
01:13:21,720 --> 01:13:24,479
Speaker 2: get it. The Jazz have moved on to the next round.

1520
01:13:24,920 --> 01:13:27,920
Speaker 2: The Jazz are gonna have a big rest advantage that's

1521
01:13:27,920 --> 01:13:30,440
Speaker 2: gonna help them the next series. If it's the Clippers,

1522
01:13:30,680 --> 01:13:33,080
Speaker 2: the Clippers gonna be coming off to elimination the wins

1523
01:13:33,360 --> 01:13:36,680
Speaker 2: while Dallas has a five day rest weight waiting at

1524
01:13:36,680 --> 01:13:39,920
Speaker 2: home in elevation. I guess what. That didn't really work

1525
01:13:39,920 --> 01:13:42,280
Speaker 2: against Memphis, So I don't know about that for Utah

1526
01:13:42,280 --> 01:13:45,759
Speaker 2: and that one anyways, I don't know. I I think

1527
01:13:46,200 --> 01:13:48,919
Speaker 2: that the better teams are in that side of the bracket,

1528
01:13:49,840 --> 01:13:52,920
Speaker 2: and but when it comes down to actually looking at

1529
01:13:52,920 --> 01:13:56,760
Speaker 2: the matchups and it gets to Utah or the Clippers,

1530
01:13:57,640 --> 01:14:00,920
Speaker 2: I'm not really buying in on Dallas as this like

1531
01:14:01,040 --> 01:14:05,680
Speaker 2: huge threat. Luca has been awesome. Yeah, it's it's just

1532
01:14:05,760 --> 01:14:07,200
Speaker 2: it's open. The last is tough.

1533
01:14:07,520 --> 01:14:09,320
Speaker 1: I opened I hadn't done it yet.

1534
01:14:09,360 --> 01:14:13,639
Speaker 4: I opened my son's Western Conference title position after Game

1535
01:14:14,360 --> 01:14:18,320
Speaker 4: five of the Lakers series, and I've added to it

1536
01:14:18,360 --> 01:14:20,040
Speaker 4: at last night, and I'll continue to add to it

1537
01:14:20,560 --> 01:14:23,080
Speaker 4: even with me taking the Nuggets. I know this sounds crazy,

1538
01:14:23,120 --> 01:14:24,920
Speaker 4: but I'm telling you, like I like the Nuggets in

1539
01:14:24,960 --> 01:14:27,240
Speaker 4: this series. But if the Suns beat the Nuggets, I

1540
01:14:27,280 --> 01:14:27,919
Speaker 4: like the Suns.

1541
01:14:27,720 --> 01:14:29,799
Speaker 1: To win the West. I think they're the most versatile.

1542
01:14:29,800 --> 01:14:30,760
Speaker 1: I think that they're the best.

1543
01:14:30,840 --> 01:14:32,759
Speaker 4: I think they have the most like the best combination.

1544
01:14:32,840 --> 01:14:34,640
Speaker 4: I like that there they have the best way to

1545
01:14:34,640 --> 01:14:37,360
Speaker 4: accommodate matchups of any team remaining. They don't have specific

1546
01:14:37,439 --> 01:14:40,840
Speaker 4: weaknesses that I can I can isolate Rahiemi anything else.

1547
01:14:43,120 --> 01:14:43,880
Speaker 3: That's it. I think.

1548
01:14:44,960 --> 01:14:48,479
Speaker 5: I think the play the play for tonight's take the

1549
01:14:48,479 --> 01:14:52,920
Speaker 5: Clippers to win this series. I think it's plus one.

1550
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:54,960
Speaker 5: They win tonight, you got a nice middle in an

1551
01:14:55,040 --> 01:14:58,360
Speaker 5: arbitrized opportunity. They win tonight, you know they're gonna be

1552
01:14:58,560 --> 01:15:02,360
Speaker 5: six seven point favorites on Sunday. You can take the

1553
01:15:02,400 --> 01:15:05,920
Speaker 5: Mavericks plus six or plus seven on Sunday and you

1554
01:15:05,920 --> 01:15:08,479
Speaker 5: could try to hit both sides, or you could take

1555
01:15:08,479 --> 01:15:11,200
Speaker 5: the Mavericks money line. You get plus money on both sides.

1556
01:15:11,600 --> 01:15:13,080
Speaker 5: So that's the play for me tonight.

1557
01:15:13,880 --> 01:15:16,960
Speaker 2: My play tonight, this is gonna be a classic Brandon

1558
01:15:17,040 --> 01:15:19,120
Speaker 2: play that has a chance to look really great for

1559
01:15:19,160 --> 01:15:21,519
Speaker 2: a couple of days and then crash and burn real hard.

1560
01:15:21,920 --> 01:15:24,280
Speaker 2: I just put into our staff best bets column, so'll

1561
01:15:24,320 --> 01:15:28,240
Speaker 2: be coming out later on today. So yesterday, my pick

1562
01:15:28,479 --> 01:15:31,280
Speaker 2: for our best bet going to those two games was

1563
01:15:31,360 --> 01:15:34,200
Speaker 2: the Suns to win the Western Conference, which was at

1564
01:15:34,240 --> 01:15:37,559
Speaker 2: plus five hundred at this time yesterday. It's now down

1565
01:15:37,560 --> 01:15:40,439
Speaker 2: to plus two twenty at bet MGM, so those odds

1566
01:15:40,439 --> 01:15:42,840
Speaker 2: have been sliced more than in a half. All they

1567
01:15:42,840 --> 01:15:44,559
Speaker 2: had to do was win last night and move on.

1568
01:15:45,439 --> 01:15:48,519
Speaker 2: Dallas to win the West is plus thirteen hundred right now.

1569
01:15:49,120 --> 01:15:51,200
Speaker 2: I do not think Dallas is the best team in

1570
01:15:51,200 --> 01:15:53,519
Speaker 2: the West. I don't know if they're even the best

1571
01:15:53,520 --> 01:15:55,680
Speaker 2: team in the series. They're not the best team in

1572
01:15:55,680 --> 01:15:57,479
Speaker 2: the series. They just have Luca and the Clippers are

1573
01:15:57,479 --> 01:16:01,840
Speaker 2: the Clippers. But Luca is playing so well that they

1574
01:16:01,880 --> 01:16:05,479
Speaker 2: would have a chance. And at plus thirteen hundred, I

1575
01:16:05,520 --> 01:16:08,839
Speaker 2: think that there's value there at our playoff Series guide

1576
01:16:08,960 --> 01:16:11,479
Speaker 2: on the website, I think it's like a plus a

1577
01:16:11,520 --> 01:16:14,720
Speaker 2: three point nine percent edge in our favor using justin

1578
01:16:14,840 --> 01:16:18,240
Speaker 2: fans numbers, who I have learned to trust because they

1579
01:16:18,240 --> 01:16:20,000
Speaker 2: are getting a lot of NBA props right and a

1580
01:16:20,040 --> 01:16:23,960
Speaker 2: lot of other things right this year. Like I think

1581
01:16:25,080 --> 01:16:27,840
Speaker 2: if Dallas wins tonight or close out the series, what

1582
01:16:27,840 --> 01:16:30,920
Speaker 2: do their odds drop to from thirteen hundred, like they

1583
01:16:30,960 --> 01:16:33,559
Speaker 2: only have to win one of two games, and then

1584
01:16:33,680 --> 01:16:35,479
Speaker 2: they're gonna those odds are gonna slice down to like

1585
01:16:35,520 --> 01:16:41,120
Speaker 2: seven hundred or something like that. And the Clippers it

1586
01:16:41,160 --> 01:16:44,200
Speaker 2: doesn't matter, It doesn't it doesn't matter. It's the numbers

1587
01:16:44,240 --> 01:16:47,280
Speaker 2: thing again. If the Mavericks only have to win one

1588
01:16:47,360 --> 01:16:50,040
Speaker 2: of two games in games that have proven to be

1589
01:16:50,080 --> 01:16:54,040
Speaker 2: mostly coin flip depending on a shot variance and which

1590
01:16:54,040 --> 01:16:58,120
Speaker 2: healthy superstar shows up, the Clippers have to win two

1591
01:16:58,160 --> 01:17:00,880
Speaker 2: coin flips. That that means twenty five percent chance to

1592
01:17:00,960 --> 01:17:03,880
Speaker 2: advance in the series. That makes the Mavericks significant favorites.

1593
01:17:04,080 --> 01:17:05,680
Speaker 2: This still have to win two more series after that,

1594
01:17:05,960 --> 01:17:09,000
Speaker 2: but I already have songs at five hundred also, so

1595
01:17:09,120 --> 01:17:11,800
Speaker 2: give me that. Give me the Eighten and don Chic

1596
01:17:11,880 --> 01:17:15,400
Speaker 2: battle in the Western Finals and uh and I'm just

1597
01:17:16,080 --> 01:17:17,320
Speaker 2: riding free roll at that point.

1598
01:17:18,840 --> 01:17:21,439
Speaker 4: I did take a Mavericks position after game two to

1599
01:17:21,479 --> 01:17:22,320
Speaker 4: win the Western Conference.

1600
01:17:22,360 --> 01:17:24,559
Speaker 1: I'm cashing out after the series. Is what I'll do

1601
01:17:24,600 --> 01:17:26,600
Speaker 1: with the Mavericks win, is what I'll do.

1602
01:17:27,160 --> 01:17:28,800
Speaker 4: All right, go wrap it up for the Action Network

1603
01:17:28,840 --> 01:17:30,600
Speaker 4: Podcast Long edition, But there's a lot to get to.

1604
01:17:30,640 --> 01:17:31,280
Speaker 1: Thanks for joining us.

1605
01:17:31,280 --> 01:17:33,600
Speaker 4: We're back next week with an episode. I'll be broadcasting

1606
01:17:33,640 --> 01:17:36,160
Speaker 4: for the Beach Suckers with a with a.

1607
01:17:36,200 --> 01:17:39,080
Speaker 1: Dacory in my hand. Make sure to follow us.

1608
01:17:39,400 --> 01:17:41,680
Speaker 4: Download the Action Network app right now is going to

1609
01:17:41,760 --> 01:17:43,080
Speaker 4: be the best way for you track your bets, get

1610
01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:45,200
Speaker 4: all the information that you need. Check us out at

1611
01:17:45,240 --> 01:17:47,519
Speaker 4: Action Network HQ, Follow you guys on Twitter and in

1612
01:17:47,600 --> 01:17:49,120
Speaker 4: the app, and we'll talk.

1613
01:17:49,040 --> 01:17:51,000
Speaker 1: To guys again next time on the Action Network podcast

1614
01:17:51,040 --> 01:17:52,080
Speaker 1: and be a edition.

1615
01:17:58,960 --> 01:17:59,840
Speaker 7: We're finished, Tork