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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Monday edition of Ballots of Power. I'm
Speaker 4: Joe Matthew in Washington, where we have reached peak bloom
Speaker 4: pay no attention to what's happening or not. In the
Speaker 4: case of Capitol Hill, the cherry blossoms have reached stage six.
Speaker 4: It's sixty something degrees outside, the tourists are clogging our streets,
Speaker 4: and spring is at hand. In Washington, the question is, well,
Speaker 4: the government shut down on Friday, even if for a
Speaker 4: minute the chance of a possible stumble into a shutdown
Speaker 4: may have just gotten greater. We've been talking, of course,
Speaker 4: about a couple of solutions here that might include a
Speaker 4: continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security. That's where
Speaker 4: they had a sticking point there when it comes to
Speaker 4: border language, how to deal with border agents, border security,
Speaker 4: and the rest. We can't get past anything having to
Speaker 4: do with the border without an argument, and so here
Speaker 4: we are. We thought we might get text tonight. Now
Speaker 4: it appears we may not. And if that is the case,
Speaker 4: we could have a scenario in which we just bump
Speaker 4: into that shutdown midnight on Friday because they can't get
Speaker 4: everything done in time. And that's where we want to
Speaker 4: start the conversation with Eric Watson reporting over the weekend
Speaker 4: and just hearing now from some lawmakers as we wait
Speaker 4: for the return of the House. It's good to see Eric,
Speaker 4: what kind of odds are we putting on this here?
Speaker 4: Because this DHS bill seems to be a problem.
Speaker 5: You know, it's really touching Gough. I keep hearing from
Speaker 5: sources yesterday on Sunday that was coming out soon. Then
Speaker 5: it wasn't, you know, And then today as well, we
Speaker 5: were respecting it, and now it seems like it's not.
Speaker 5: But I just heard from a source that it may
Speaker 5: still come out. So not there yet, but things are difficult. Basically,
Speaker 5: it's six parts of this package of funny everything from
Speaker 5: the Pentagon to the Department of Education. But one part
Speaker 5: of it is the Homeland Security Bill, which has been
Speaker 5: really the big sticking point between Congress and Biden administration
Speaker 5: on border This wouldn't solve the border policy dispute remain
Speaker 5: in Mexico and all of that, but it would They
Speaker 5: are trying to, you know, increase the number of detension
Speaker 5: beds for ice for example, you know, increase border patrol funding.
Speaker 5: But you know, they're kind of in a deadlock here,
Speaker 5: so I think it may still come out. But as
Speaker 5: you noted, the House has this procedure of US wait
Speaker 5: seventy two hours that could be waved. It was waved
Speaker 5: in the case of a of a CR of stopgap
Speaker 5: bill if it's not. You know, this pushes the Senate
Speaker 5: right up against the deadline. And we know things can
Speaker 5: move lightning fast with unanimous consent in the Senate, but
Speaker 5: they also can drag you out. So yeah, we could
Speaker 5: see a weekend shut down, which some sources say is
Speaker 5: not such a such a bad thing, or they could
Speaker 5: pass a three day CR. But you know, I think
Speaker 5: this will get resolved there. It's been hang ups about
Speaker 5: these detention beds and so forth before the appropse committees
Speaker 5: for PRICIS committees know how to resolve this problem, but
Speaker 5: it's so blamed at the President and speaker level that
Speaker 5: that maybe we do stumble into shut.
Speaker 4: Well, I guess it's it's inevitable at some point, right,
Speaker 4: my god, I don't know if I've lost count. This
Speaker 4: would be our fifth cr if we actually needed one.
Speaker 4: I think if you're dancing on the ash so long
Speaker 4: like this, eventually you're going to fall off, right.
Speaker 5: I think so. But it's so late towards the election year,
Speaker 5: so really people don't like to mess around with that
Speaker 5: so close to a time when voters may remember and
Speaker 5: sign Lane and the Speaker has and House Pokans have
Speaker 5: really decided that they're not going to kind of provoke
Speaker 5: a shutdown, doing everything they can to avoid it. Now.
Speaker 5: They won't sign on to something such as green lighting
Speaker 5: Biden migration policies that could get them in trouble with
Speaker 5: their base, but you know, they can score some kind
Speaker 5: of policy wins here. I think it's going to go through.
Speaker 4: Fascinating. So we've got a lot to learn. I guess
Speaker 4: over the next couple of days here, if there is
Speaker 4: a shutdown, Eric, it's going to be something very short,
Speaker 4: is the idea? Right, We're actually a lot closer to
Speaker 4: finishing this in the end. It would almost be an
Speaker 4: accidental shutdown. If this happens or are there some lawmakers
Speaker 4: who want to make a point.
Speaker 5: There always are some that do are advocating a shutdown,
Speaker 5: especially in the House Freedom Caucus, but they're kind of
Speaker 5: marginalized here, they're not really central to the discussion. And again,
Speaker 5: there's been a law passed recently that even those non
Speaker 5: essential workers who are furlowed will get paid. So that
Speaker 5: is a waste of money for the government for work,
Speaker 5: paying for work that wasn't done. But those workers will
Speaker 5: eventually get paid for sure. Now because always an open
Speaker 5: question before this law was passed. The essential workers work
Speaker 5: and they don't get the pay right away, but don't
Speaker 5: get it later. So it's really a good question of
Speaker 5: contract and others. But and we can't shutdown probably doesn't
Speaker 5: have a big impact on many people and certainly doesn't
Speaker 5: have an impact on the economy.
Speaker 4: Well, let's see what we can do this week, Eric Wasson,
Speaker 4: great to see you. Welcome back to the Fray here
Speaker 4: with the countdown. That'll bring us to midnight Friday once again,
Speaker 4: we'll see if we can get this done. And of course,
Speaker 4: if you listen to this program, you will know long
Speaker 4: before it happens. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, as we
Speaker 4: spend a couple of plates here. This would typically be
Speaker 4: a pretty quiet period of time on a Monday like this,
Speaker 4: the eighteenth of March, but we've got a lot to
Speaker 4: talk about with not only a potential shutdown this late
Speaker 4: in the game in the fiscal year, but just an
Speaker 4: endless string of headlines coming from Israel. And we just
Speaker 4: got another important one here as Joe Biden and Benjamin
Speaker 4: Netanya who have held their first call. We have just
Speaker 4: learned in more than a month. This of course, against
Speaker 4: the backdrop of some very difficult policy and politics with
Speaker 4: regard to Israel and Gaza that have dogged this president
Speaker 4: here on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue when it
Speaker 4: comes to progressive Democrats on Capitol Hill, and also on
Speaker 4: the campaign trail with an uncommitted vote, protest vote that
Speaker 4: has followed him through states like Michigan and Minnesota. Interesting yesterday,
Speaker 4: Saint Patrick's Day, the President and the Prime Minister of Ireland,
Speaker 4: the Tea Shock together for Saint Patrick's Day dinner at
Speaker 4: the White House for what would normally be a very
Speaker 4: fun celebration, and this was very much in the air.
Speaker 4: The Tea Shock explained why Ireland has such a long
Speaker 4: history of supporting and backing the Palestinians. In this case,
Speaker 4: they both acknowledged the need for aid, and we want
Speaker 4: to talk a bit about the risks that come with that.
Speaker 4: It's a conversation we were having in our newsroom. The
Speaker 4: idea of not only air dropping supplies but also setting
Speaker 4: up a temporary port or peer is fraught with risk,
Speaker 4: and this is why this would be done by the military.
Speaker 4: In part, Kelly Grico is with a senior fellow at
Speaker 4: the Reimagining Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. Kelly,
Speaker 4: welcome back to Bloomberg. Is great to have you. There
Speaker 4: are a lot of questions still about whether we can
Speaker 4: pull this off, knowing that we don't want to put
Speaker 4: us boots on the ground to make this temporary peer work.
Speaker 4: Is it still the best option we have?
Speaker 6: Well, first, thank you for having me. As you said,
Speaker 6: this is a really challenging time with what's happening in
Speaker 6: Gaza and the humanitarian crisis. You know the question you ask,
Speaker 6: is this the best option? Well, no, it's not the
Speaker 6: best option. In the suns that there are trucks you
Speaker 6: know in Egypt right now that are loaded and ready
Speaker 6: to go into Gaza. But as long as that is
Speaker 6: blocked as an option, we need to find potentially some
Speaker 6: way to bring in a greater volume of aid than
Speaker 6: as possible through hair drops.
Speaker 4: We've heard criticism of this idea from both sides of
Speaker 4: the aisle, and we know that a couple of trucks,
Speaker 4: the second AID truck has now arrived on a shipment
Speaker 4: rather have arrived on Gaza's shore. I shouldn't say truck,
Speaker 4: but a second a ship has to the extent that
Speaker 4: we can build a temporary peer, how would that work
Speaker 4: if we don't want to have American boots on the ground.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So I think it's important to say that there
Speaker 6: are really two things that need to be constructed for
Speaker 6: this operation. One is to actually construct a floating dock
Speaker 6: which would be a little bit further out of sea,
Speaker 6: so that large cargo ships could pull up to that
Speaker 6: dock and unload their cargo and then it would then
Speaker 6: be transferred to smaller ships that would then be headed
Speaker 6: towards what would be the second thing that needs to
Speaker 6: be constructed, which is a floating pier and causeway, and
Speaker 6: that would be where those things would then be unloaded
Speaker 6: and then trucks would then take it and distribute it
Speaker 6: to gossens. So you need to construct both of those.
Speaker 6: Of course, the question a lot of people have is
Speaker 6: how do you construct a peer without US forces being
Speaker 6: put on the ground. And the way to do that
Speaker 6: is you can drupted at sea and then you essentially
Speaker 6: drive it in to connect with the lands. Yes, so
Speaker 6: technically there are not your troops on the ground.
Speaker 4: Do we have any reason to believe that Israel would
Speaker 4: stop this from happening? What if Israel doesn't want this here?
Speaker 2: Yeah?
Speaker 6: I mean I think if Israel doesn't want this, I
Speaker 6: don't see how this is viable because, frankly, at least
Speaker 6: in some of the reporting, it seems to be that
Speaker 6: the Israelis are going to provide an outer security parameter,
Speaker 6: and that would be key for two reasons. One because,
Speaker 6: of course there would be concerns about attacks from Hamas
Speaker 6: or some other kind of actor on the infrastructure and
Speaker 6: forces at sea. And then the second piece would also
Speaker 6: be that you know, these are people in Gaza that
Speaker 6: are desperate, They're going to rush towards the AID. It's understandable,
Speaker 6: but it creates a really dangerous security situation, and so
Speaker 6: you would need some presence on the ground providing security,
Speaker 6: so that in this case has to be the Israelis.
Speaker 4: We have a trust problem here. When the World's Central Kitchen,
Speaker 4: which is behind these shipments, says two hundred tons of
Speaker 4: aid was on board and the IDF says it was
Speaker 4: one hundred and fifteen tons, we have a problem here, right, Yes.
Speaker 6: I mean I don't know what accounts for the difference
Speaker 6: or how they're making their calculations, but I would say,
Speaker 6: you know, two hundred tons, it's not nothing, you know,
Speaker 6: to scove at, but it is actually pretty small and
Speaker 6: compared to what the actual needs are. And that ship,
Speaker 6: for example, stopped at a bar, a smaller bars because
Speaker 6: it's a smaller ship.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 6: I think the question is, again the kind of volumes
Speaker 6: that are required requires an ability to bring in much
Speaker 6: larger ships. And so I think you're raising the right issue,
Speaker 6: which is, you know, is real going to allow that
Speaker 6: and have concerns about what's on these ships.
Speaker 4: For example, as we spend time with Kelly Griico from
Speaker 4: the Stimpson Center, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This phone call,
Speaker 4: I assume is going to lead to some settlement of
Speaker 4: these questions. Today President Biden and Benjaminettania who talking about
Speaker 4: specifically the issue of delivering aid but also managing an
Speaker 4: invasion of Rafa, And I wonder your thoughts on that,
Speaker 4: with your expertise in this field. Is it possible for
Speaker 4: the IDEF to actually get civilians out of the way that,
Speaker 4: of course, is the Hamas strategy right to use them
Speaker 4: as human shields.
Speaker 6: Yes, I mean, I think it's really difficult. I mean,
Speaker 6: I think we sometimes we have the answer because we've
Speaker 6: seen throughout the course of the operations of Israel making
Speaker 6: announcements Forrazilians to go places, and then it's just really hard,
Speaker 6: given how the concentration of population, to sort of clear
Speaker 6: these areas from any kind of civilians. And this is
Speaker 6: the reality I think of war. I think the more
Speaker 6: interesting thing to me will be, you know, Biden publicly
Speaker 6: declared it a red line around Rapa in terms of
Speaker 6: wanting a plan to protect civilians, and whether you know
Speaker 6: the President is now on board with that Israeli planed,
Speaker 6: or if he's actually going to take a much harder
Speaker 6: position now and try to put pressure on the Israelis
Speaker 6: to move in a different direction. Use leverage that we have,
Speaker 6: which is largely our military aid to Israel.
Speaker 4: We've spoken a lot, of course about Israel in this case,
Speaker 4: but as well funding for the war in Israel, it's
Speaker 4: tied to funding for the war in Ukraine, Kelly, and
Speaker 4: it's still hung up in Washington, even as the President
Speaker 4: tries to move this needle. It's just not been happening lately,
Speaker 4: and it's created a real concern in Ukraine as they
Speaker 4: run out of ammunition. I know this is also something
Speaker 4: that you've got your eyes on. And after hearing from
Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin over the weekend, re elected in air quotes
Speaker 4: at eighty seven percent, I believe it was he talked
Speaker 4: about cutting Ukrainian troops to pieces, and I wonder to
Speaker 4: what extent this election will embolden him to try to
Speaker 4: finish the job.
Speaker 6: Yes, I mean, I think one of the things that
Speaker 6: we should be looking at to see is if you're
Speaker 6: going to now feel competent enough to announce another partial mobilization.
Speaker 6: You know, I think there's signs that that might indeed
Speaker 6: be the case, and I think that actually creates real
Speaker 6: challenges for Ukraine on the one issue that they have
Speaker 6: control over. They may not have control over you know,
Speaker 6: ammunition coming from the West or other kinds of weapons,
Speaker 6: but they do have control over their mobilization, and right
Speaker 6: now bills are hung up in their own government about
Speaker 6: trying to mobilize more of their population. And so that's
Speaker 6: my concern is really the shortage and personnel.
Speaker 4: But of course if we look at the equipment side
Speaker 4: as well, if this money were passed today in Washington,
Speaker 4: when would we actually be able to make the shells
Speaker 4: and deliver them?
Speaker 6: Yeah, So, I mean the United States has ramped up
Speaker 6: ammunition production quite a bit since the start of the war,
Speaker 6: and by twenty twenty five, the Army has said that
Speaker 6: they'll be able to produce one hundred rounds of these
Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty five millimeter shells per month. So
Speaker 6: I think actually, in terms of things like ammunition, we
Speaker 6: probably can continue, you right now, to provide that to Ukraine.
Speaker 6: And quickly the issue becomes harder when we start talking
Speaker 6: about some of these systems that are more expensive and
Speaker 6: that we don't have as many numbers, like missiles for
Speaker 6: the Patriot systems that we've sent to Ukraine a tack THEMS.
Speaker 6: These are these long range missile systems, those things there
Speaker 6: would need to be time, and we're really coming down
Speaker 6: to numbers here where I don't actually see how we're
Speaker 6: able to send much more to Ukraine without endangering our
Speaker 6: own stops.
Speaker 4: Kelly Grico, thank you. It's great to have you back
Speaker 4: from the Stimpson Center.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken
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Speaker 4: After another wild weekend, I hope you had a great
Speaker 4: Saint Pat stay wild on the campaign trail, or at
Speaker 4: least in terms of some of the rhetoric that we heard,
Speaker 4: and that means it is now time for us to
Speaker 4: debate the context of the term bloodbath. If you weren't
Speaker 4: paying attention over the weekend, I salute you. Maybe you
Speaker 4: had a holiday to celebrate. But Donald Trump is floating
Speaker 4: this idea. We'll give it to you in his words,
Speaker 4: and we will give you the context of a one
Speaker 4: hundred percent tariff on evs from China. It was what
Speaker 4: he said after that, because that would be quite a
Speaker 4: story on any day. But beyond the tariff, it was
Speaker 4: the language that he chose. In some news organizations, you know,
Speaker 4: they cut that right down to a narrow SoundBite, and
Speaker 4: they got everybody upset. Let's hear it in full. This
Speaker 4: is Donald Trump on the campaign trail over the weekend.
Speaker 7: Listen if you're listening, presidency and you and I are friends,
Speaker 7: but he understands the ideal. We're going to put a
Speaker 7: one hundred percent tariff on every single car that comes
Speaker 7: across the line, and you're not going to be able
Speaker 7: to sell those goes if I get elected. If I
Speaker 7: don't get elected, it's going to be a blood bath
Speaker 7: for the whole That's going to be the least of it.
Speaker 4: All Right, there you go, It's going to be a
Speaker 4: blood bath. It's going to be the least of it. Now,
Speaker 4: there's been an urging by Republicans, as I heard, and
Speaker 4: some Democrats all throughout the day Sunday morning television and
Speaker 4: on the news programs that context is everything here, slow
Speaker 4: down mainstream media. But I guess the question is is
Speaker 4: there a good context for a bloodbath? Let's assemble the
Speaker 4: panel Rick Davis and Geanie Shanzo join on a Monday
Speaker 4: back from the weekend our signature panel. Rick pull me
Speaker 4: in off the ledge. Here are we making too much
Speaker 4: of this?
Speaker 8: You know, I don't think we're making too much of it,
Speaker 8: but I'm not exactly sure we're talking about the right thing.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 8: The one thing that I think gets missed by the media,
Speaker 8: and it's been a big problem since the twenty twenty
Speaker 8: elections is the proliferation of political violence. And no more
Speaker 8: a great example of it than in a mild stomping
Speaker 8: grounds in Arizona. Maricopa County Board of Supervisor is one
Speaker 8: of the biggest counties in America, the hotbed for political
Speaker 8: wins and losses in Arizona, and last week the Board
Speaker 8: of Supervisors, the Maricopa County Board of Supervisers was was
Speaker 8: attacked in their chambers during a meeting by Trump supporters
Speaker 8: screaming revolution and this is this is a a an
Speaker 8: attack on government, and they took over the podium. The
Speaker 8: supervisors got out by a side door called the Sheriff's
Speaker 8: office cut off the live feed. And this is the
Speaker 8: context with which are top politician in the Republican Party
Speaker 8: is talking about bloodbaths. Now, I don't really care what
Speaker 8: the context is, whether it's about cars or whether it's
Speaker 8: about the country, but it's not the kind of terminology
Speaker 8: that I think we ought to be using in a
Speaker 8: country that is already riff with political violence. And the
Speaker 8: last thing he said, which wasn't in your clip, is
Speaker 8: that it's going to be a blood bath for the country.
Speaker 8: And so I'm just trying to piece together, like, so, okay,
Speaker 8: so we don't have any Chinese evs coming in because
Speaker 8: of his terra, why is that a blood bath for
Speaker 8: the country.
Speaker 4: I don't get.
Speaker 8: I don't if he loses, so anyway, I think it's
Speaker 8: all about context. I think that we need to be
Speaker 8: very focused on political violence and this kind of hot
Speaker 8: rhetoric doesn't help.
Speaker 4: Well, that was awfully well answered, Genie. It seems like
Speaker 4: this kind of stuff should be acknowledged. There isn't normalizing
Speaker 4: after a while of you know what, I think Donald
Speaker 4: Trump calls it locker room talk or something like that.
Speaker 4: But it seems to me that the context might be
Speaker 4: irrelevant here.
Speaker 9: How about you, Well, I happen to agree with that.
Speaker 9: I think any time we are trying to contextualize or
Speaker 9: understand or decipher or channel what Donald Trump is talking about.
Speaker 9: We have to take a step back and ask ourselves
Speaker 9: does it really matter? He himself long ago said he
Speaker 9: could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and it wouldn't matter.
Speaker 9: He can say almost anything at this point, and it
Speaker 9: doesn't matter to his voters. And I think rather than
Speaker 9: asking what he means or what he was saying, or
Speaker 9: was he talking about automobile tariffs or was he talking
Speaker 9: about another January sixth, we're better off asking why doesn't
Speaker 9: this matter to his voters? And there is a really
Speaker 9: solid research base for answering that question. It doesn't matter
Speaker 9: to his voters because his voters have long felt left
Speaker 9: out and left aside and pushed away by both parties.
Speaker 9: So they're not asking for an answer to their economic problems.
Speaker 9: They are asking, quite frankly, for a middle finger to
Speaker 9: the establishment, and that's what Donald Trump provides. So they're
Speaker 9: in on all his jokes, his rhetorics, the more vulgar
Speaker 9: the better. And so from this perspective, contextualizing what he
Speaker 9: says doesn't matter. We should be focusing instead on what
Speaker 9: he's proposing, and one hundred percent tariff on automobiles is
Speaker 9: a big proposal with enormous ramifications. That should have been
Speaker 9: the news, not the use of the term bloodbath.
Speaker 4: Well, thank you both for being thoughtful on that. I'll
Speaker 4: tell you there are some folks with a lot of
Speaker 4: money who are giving a middle finger back to Donald Trump,
Speaker 4: in this case those who gave Joe Biden fifty three
Speaker 4: million dollars in February. This went to the reelection campaign
Speaker 4: and the party. That's a record for the month. Rick,
Speaker 4: the campaign has one hundred and fifty five million dollars
Speaker 4: cash on hand, the most amassed for a Democrat at
Speaker 4: this point in the calendar. How do you read that,
Speaker 4: knowing that polling has been such a problem for him.
Speaker 8: Yeah, Look, I mean he's got one of the essential
Speaker 8: elements of a successful campaign, a financial advantage. Now, most
Speaker 8: incumbent running for reelection are going to have a financial advantage,
Speaker 8: but this has been a year where we've understood that
Speaker 8: it's basically two incumbents running against each other. And Donald
Speaker 8: Trump's been fundraising since the day he left office, and
Speaker 8: the fact that he's spent down his wad of cash
Speaker 8: and not insignificantly because of his legal problems, indicates a
Speaker 8: real functional problem for Donald Trump. He probably doesn't need
Speaker 8: to equal or exceed Biden's spending to be competitive. Obviously,
Speaker 8: he's ahead in the polls right now in these targeted states.
Speaker 8: But the campaign between the two of them has just
Speaker 8: really begun, and the reality is he seedes this ground.
Speaker 8: This financial turf to Biden is very dangerous. I don't
Speaker 8: know any candidate who thinks that's a good idea. And so,
Speaker 8: you know, kudos to the Democrats for hustling and getting
Speaker 8: a lot of money in. And I think that there
Speaker 8: are real concerns within the Republican Party about whether or
Speaker 8: not Donald Trump is equipped to financial manages campaign. There's
Speaker 8: no question that the RNC is a part of this problem.
Speaker 8: Now he's now running the RNC and it doesn't have
Speaker 8: any money. His campaign's basically broke, and he's got all
Speaker 8: these bills coming in from lawyers. So it's a big problem.
Speaker 4: It's a big problem, Genie. When Donald Trump says it
Speaker 4: is a practical impossibility, that is a quote from the
Speaker 4: court filing to post full bond while he appeals the
Speaker 4: penalty four hundred and fifty four million dollar penalty against
Speaker 4: him in New York's civil fraud case. He says doing
Speaker 4: so may require cash reserves nearing a billion dollars. We
Speaker 4: still have eight months left for this campaign. Right, We've
Speaker 4: been talking about the longest ever and likely most expensive
Speaker 4: ever general election campaign and Joe Biden is sitting on
Speaker 4: more money than a Democrat has ever had at this point.
Speaker 4: Are we having the right conversation about this race?
Speaker 9: Well, that's absolutely right. I mean, he had the strongest
Speaker 9: fundraising amongst the grass roots, I think ever in modern
Speaker 9: American history. But that number could be that could be wrong,
Speaker 9: but it was a strong one. So, you know, to
Speaker 9: echo what Joe Biden has been saying, you know, you
Speaker 9: look at those polls and you feel that, you know,
Speaker 9: he's widely unpopular at about thirty eight percent. But he
Speaker 9: counters and says, look at the fundraising we are doing,
Speaker 9: and it is not all from wealthy donors. A lot
Speaker 9: of it is from the grassroots. So there is enthusiasm
Speaker 9: out there for the campaign. But the reality is, as
Speaker 9: you know, we constantly talk about Trump's rhetoric, and just
Speaker 9: what we were talking about before, the question is going
Speaker 9: to be does it even matter? I mean, Trump is
Speaker 9: a master of the free media. He goes out over
Speaker 9: the weekend, says something almost undecipherable, and that's all we
Speaker 9: hear about. So, you know, traditionally I would agree the
Speaker 9: money would matter an awful lot. But the reality is
Speaker 9: Donald Trump has really mastered this game of free media.
Speaker 9: He may continue to. So Joe Biden's going to be
Speaker 9: helped by this number, for sure, but you know, you
Speaker 9: have to ask how much and can he overcome these
Speaker 9: slagging poll numbers in the Bloomberg Pole, in these key
Speaker 9: states where he is just consistently been behind increasingly So
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, well.
Speaker 4: Let's grab the third rail for a moment here, Rick Davis,
Speaker 4: because Donald Trump did over the weekend he was asked
Speaker 4: on Fox about this New York Times report that he
Speaker 4: was about to settle on a six weeks pregnancy ban
Speaker 4: an abortion ban after sixteen weeks. Knowing that this number
Speaker 4: has been batted around a lot on the campaign trail,
Speaker 4: he says, we're going to find out, and pretty soon
Speaker 4: I'm going to be making a decision. Quote. I would
Speaker 4: like to see if we could make both sides happy. Unquote.
Speaker 4: This is the man who takes credit for ending Roe V. Wade.
Speaker 4: How important will his answer be on this?
Speaker 8: It's an incredibly dangerous thing to set up for yourself. Right,
Speaker 8: And this is the thing that I head scratching moment.
Speaker 8: Why is he even taking that on himself? Why doesn't
Speaker 8: he just say, Hey, there's these guys, you know, DeSantis,
Speaker 8: he's too short. You know, I'd like the way Yunkin
Speaker 8: did it. I mean, like, let those guys take the heat.
Speaker 8: He's already got the pro life vote in his pocket.
Speaker 8: The only thing he can do is upset them. And
Speaker 8: if he picks a number that they don't like, you know,
Speaker 8: quote trying to make everybody happy, then I think it's
Speaker 8: a problem for him. It is a very clear tell
Speaker 8: that he's worried about this abortion issue, because otherwise, why
Speaker 8: is he bringing it up.
Speaker 4: I'd like to see if we could make both sides happy, Genie.
Speaker 4: I don't know how he would manage to do. That
Speaker 4: is another option. He never answers that question.
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's another option. As we know, Donald Trump is
Speaker 9: you know, probably the biggest stumbling block to his own
Speaker 9: campaign or the things that he says and does repeatedly.
Speaker 9: Abortion is something that he has taken credit for the
Speaker 9: overturning of Roe on a repeated basis. If it wasn't
Speaker 9: for Donald Trump, we wouldn't have had the overturning of Roe,
Speaker 9: and he has said that consistently, so now he is
Speaker 9: going to raise this and it's an issue that has
Speaker 9: only helped the Democrats and the pro choice side. So
Speaker 9: I'm not sure why he's raising it. I am sure
Speaker 9: his campaign doesn't want him to, but as usual with
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, they can't stop him. He's his own worst
Speaker 9: enemy in these in these situations.
Speaker 4: You know, we haven't talked enough about Joe Biden in
Speaker 4: this instance. Outside of his financial situation, Genie, the matter
Speaker 4: of Israel followed him all weekend. It came up with
Speaker 4: the Prime Minister of Ireland at the Saint Patrick's Day dinner,
Speaker 4: typically a very lighthearted affair, and news broke today since
Speaker 4: we've been on the air that he did have the
Speaker 4: first call in a month with Benjamin Netanya who How
Speaker 4: important is it going to be for him to have
Speaker 4: something to show for that call?
Speaker 9: You know, I don't know that he's going to be
Speaker 9: a to do anything with a phone call, the net
Speaker 9: and Yahoo to assuage the the you know, the really
Speaker 9: really vocal protesters on the Democratic side. I do think
Speaker 9: it is critically important as president of the United States
Speaker 9: that he keeps those channels open. He has a consistent conversation.
Speaker 9: He assures Israel of our support for them as a
Speaker 9: close ally. This is the difficulty of being an incumbent.
Speaker 9: He's got to both, you know, speak to this base
Speaker 9: that is very unhappy, and he's got to run the country,
Speaker 9: and that is a difficult thing to do. So I
Speaker 9: don't know how he is going to make this that
Speaker 9: much better in the short term, unless we hear that
Speaker 9: there is indeed some type of cease fire that he
Speaker 9: can take some credit for.
Speaker 4: This has been close to a breakdown in communications.
Speaker 7: Rick.
Speaker 4: At one point, Joe Biden was quoted to say, you
Speaker 4: hug Benjamin net and Yaho. The more problem you have,
Speaker 4: the closer you hug him. And there hasn't been so
Speaker 4: much hugs lately here. It's become a political liability for
Speaker 4: Joe Biden. In our minute remaining, I'd ask you the same.
Speaker 4: Does he need to start showing more results from these calls?
Speaker 8: Yeah, Look, I mean they don't have a lack of communication,
Speaker 8: they just have a disagreement.
Speaker 4: You know.
Speaker 8: Benjamin n. Yahoo is proceeding upon a path that he
Speaker 8: believes is good for the people of Israel and good
Speaker 8: for his own political future, and Joe Biden's trying to
Speaker 8: minimize the carnage and bring Israel back.
Speaker 3: Into the world.
Speaker 8: Those are two things that right now standing contrast to
Speaker 8: one another, and until they start to get closer to
Speaker 8: a center, that's going to be a disagreement that's going
Speaker 8: to last a long time.
Speaker 4: A tour de force with Rick and Jeanie. I love this.
Speaker 4: We should do this every Monday.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and.
Speaker 3: Then Proud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app.
Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
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Speaker 10: Simmon's Monday it means we're about to start another week
Speaker 10: here in Washington, although technically lawmakers aren't really starting it yet.
Speaker 10: It's only Monday today, It's only Monday, and yet Friday,
Speaker 10: Joe is a very important deadline when you're trying to
Speaker 10: keep the spending equivalent of about seventy five percent of
Speaker 10: the US government open beyond midnight at the end of
Speaker 10: this week, and that's looking difficult. As we begin the
Speaker 10: week or kind of here in Washington.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I wonder is this a working weekend for Jack Fitzpatrick.
Speaker 4: I bet he got some rest on Saint Patrick's Day.
Speaker 4: He of course covers appropriations for Bloomberg government, and boy,
Speaker 4: that has become quite the beat for any reporter in Washington.
Speaker 4: That used to be a boring job. I think at
Speaker 4: one point. Great to see you back, Jack, It's just
Speaker 4: it strikes me that if you dance on the edge
Speaker 4: long enough, eventually you're going to fall off. Here, even
Speaker 4: with best intentions they try to get this thing done,
Speaker 4: they might actually bump into the deadline this weekend.
Speaker 11: Yes, I mean, it's never a boring beat for me,
Speaker 11: but it is especially ten this year. As you mentioned,
Speaker 11: this is the bigger deadline. We've been talking about them
Speaker 11: struggling with funding the government for a while, but this
Speaker 11: is the one that includes the Department of Defense. This
Speaker 11: is a little more than three quarters of the money.
Speaker 11: They really wanted a deal to come together by yesterday,
Speaker 11: because they've got the seventy two hour rule in the House.
Speaker 11: If a deal came together right now, we'd be talking
Speaker 11: about maybe a Thursday afternoon vote in the House that
Speaker 11: gives the Senate very little time before Friday night. We
Speaker 11: already know that the Senate would need unanimous consent to
Speaker 11: hold a time to hold a vote in time. So
Speaker 11: there are a lot of bowling pins in the air
Speaker 11: that they're trying to juggle to get something done. And
Speaker 11: I think we're at the point where they have not
Speaker 11: said they are talking about another stopgap, but logistically they'll
Speaker 11: probably have to start talking about at least a short
Speaker 11: one if it doesn't come together right now.
Speaker 10: And when we say short one, we're probably talking just
Speaker 10: a number of days right to actually get the legislation
Speaker 10: across the finish line, not another two tiered something the
Speaker 10: kick the can for.
Speaker 9: A few weeks.
Speaker 11: Another big one would be a tough sell because Republicans,
Speaker 11: you know, continuing resolutions CR used to be a term
Speaker 11: of art. Now that is a dirty word for Conservatives.
Speaker 11: They do not want to vote on a CR again.
Speaker 11: Last time, when they struggled with the deadline, they talked about, well,
Speaker 11: if we need like a two day stop gap, we
Speaker 11: could do that.
Speaker 4: That would probably be.
Speaker 11: The conversation if it doesn't come together with a real
Speaker 11: deal just about immediately.
Speaker 4: So this is why we can't have nice things. The
Speaker 4: language from speaker Johnson makes me wonder maybe you can
Speaker 4: bring us inside this debate over border spending a little bit.
Speaker 4: We're working toward a deal. He said that reprioritizes DHS
Speaker 4: funding towards enforcing border and immigration laws. They rejected a
Speaker 4: one and a half billion dollar border security proposal here.
Speaker 11: What do they want, Well, it's the same kind of
Speaker 11: issue that held up the foreign aid funding issue the
Speaker 11: broader immigration negotiations. Republicans have said that the President keeps
Speaker 11: asking for money that yes, would go to the Department
Speaker 11: of Homeland Security, but it's more for processing people through
Speaker 11: the system. Conservatives do not believe they're doing enough to
Speaker 11: dissuade people from coming here in the first place. You
Speaker 11: can talk about the remain in Mexico policy or a
Speaker 11: variety of policies that would dissuade people from coming here
Speaker 11: and seeking asylum, stop people from crossing the border illegally. Yeah,
Speaker 11: they want HR two.
Speaker 4: They wanted HR two before.
Speaker 11: I'm sure the conversations have narrowed down to something shy
Speaker 11: of HR two. But when they thought they would need
Speaker 11: to do a stop gap just for homeland security, because
Speaker 11: they did talk about just a full year stop gap,
Speaker 11: they said, well, there would need to be some exceptions.
Speaker 11: Once they talked about the exceptions for border security, they
Speaker 11: realized that's the tough thing to negotiate, so they might
Speaker 11: as well try to negotiate the whole bill. So they're
Speaker 11: back at the age old problem now of what do
Speaker 11: you do on border security that feels like real border
Speaker 11: security to the most conservative members who are willing to
Speaker 11: vote to fund the government.
Speaker 10: So could we be in a situation where, because they're
Speaker 10: facing down the threat of a shutdown of much wider
Speaker 10: parts of the government than just DHS. Because all of
Speaker 10: this is getting rote together, Republicans actually have to give
Speaker 10: some of the border measures and potentially a win to
Speaker 10: the Biden administration on them by this for that reason,
Speaker 10: rather than giving them the win earlier on in the
Speaker 10: bipartisan deal that was negotiated.
Speaker 11: You know, it's hard to define what a win would
Speaker 11: be to the Biden administration because this is an issue
Speaker 11: that's been pushed by conservatives. It's more of been a
Speaker 11: question of how much of a win is enough for
Speaker 11: them to vote for it. They pushed the Biden administration
Speaker 11: in a more conservative direction on some of these asylum policies,
Speaker 11: but it wasn't enough for the conservatives. We've gotten to
Speaker 11: the point where a lot of people are kind of
Speaker 11: going in circles about how much of a win is
Speaker 11: something for us to really call a victory and how
Speaker 11: much is too small so that we want to be
Speaker 11: able to run on this. The shadow of Donald Trump
Speaker 11: is still hanging over anything with the.
Speaker 10: Border, all right, Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government, going to
Speaker 10: be a fun week for you, and hopefully not weekend,
Speaker 10: I'm sure.
Speaker 4: For deadlines that's coming someday, right for funding deadlines.
Speaker 10: Don't wish that upon us, Thank you, Jack, And of
Speaker 10: course he raises the specter of former President Trump, who
Speaker 10: we know has had some influence in the minds of
Speaker 10: those on Capitol Hills, specifically when it comes to the
Speaker 10: issue of border policy. He was not in favor of
Speaker 10: that bipartisan deal that was struck, and then that bipartisan
Speaker 10: deal very quickly died in this Congress. And of course
Speaker 10: the former president Joe was in the news for other
Speaker 10: reasons over this weekend as well, speaking in Ohio about
Speaker 10: a bloodbath, but specifically he was talking about the auto industry.
Speaker 10: It's become about context in the aftermath.
Speaker 4: That's what they say. We were debating in our previous
Speaker 4: hour whether there is a debate around context and whether
Speaker 4: there is any difference when it comes to a blood bath. Yes,
Speaker 4: you want to hear what he said.
Speaker 10: We should hear from the former president this weekend.
Speaker 7: If you're listening, Presidency and you and I are friends,
Speaker 7: But he understands the ideal. We're going to put a
Speaker 7: one hundred per tower for in every single car that
Speaker 7: comes across the line, and you're not going to be
Speaker 7: able to sell those because if I get elected. Now,
Speaker 7: if I don't get elected, it's going to be a
Speaker 7: bloodbath for the whole that's going to be the least
Speaker 7: of it.
Speaker 10: And then of course we got to follow up on
Speaker 10: true social after.
Speaker 4: This, Yeah, what is right? An A lot of people
Speaker 4: a probably at work by the time that happened.
Speaker 10: In part the fake news media and their democratic partners
Speaker 10: in the destruction of our nation pretended to be shocked
Speaker 10: at the use of my use of the word bloodbath,
Speaker 10: even though they fully understood I was simply referring to
Speaker 10: imports allowed by crooker Joe Biden, which are killing the
Speaker 10: automobile industry.
Speaker 4: Is the quote, Okay, social, I still don't get the
Speaker 4: way of bloodbath would be better if it were over cars.
Speaker 4: It's still a blood bath.
Speaker 10: Well, I guess it raises a question of how this
Speaker 10: is received in Ohio and in the Republican base, to
Speaker 10: which he was probably speaking.
Speaker 4: Yeah, this's a big reason why he was there. It
Speaker 4: is primary day tomorrow.
Speaker 10: It is, and maybe it matters less if you've already
Speaker 10: locked up the Republican nomination, but there are down ballot
Speaker 10: implications in Ohio at stake in the primary tomorrow, and
Speaker 10: that is where we want to begin now with Spencer Kimball.
Speaker 10: He is the executive director of the Emerson College Polling
Speaker 10: Center who just this hour has fresh data out on
Speaker 10: that Republican primary. Came out at one pm Eastern time.
Speaker 10: And Spencer, great to have you with us as this
Speaker 10: is breaking here. So your final poll of the Republican primary,
Speaker 10: this is for the Senate race, in particular, thirty eight
Speaker 10: percent of voters likely to support Bernie Moreno, who wasn't leading.
Speaker 10: And you're polling just five days ago. This has been
Speaker 10: a pretty volatile primary race thus far. Tell us more
Speaker 10: about what you're finding now that we're just one day out.
Speaker 12: Well, Kayley, I think you got it right in that
Speaker 12: this race has really jumped around. We had Frank LeRose,
Speaker 12: the Secretary of State, leading this race back in November,
Speaker 12: and then Matt Dolan had the lead as you mentioned
Speaker 12: last week. But Trump's rally this weekend seems to have
Speaker 12: given Moreno a bit of a bump our polling, coming
Speaker 12: into today with a ten point lead, now.
Speaker 4: A ten point lead, So to Kayley's point, just a
Speaker 4: week ago, this entire race was reverse of what we
Speaker 4: have now. So Moreno at thirty eight percent, Dolan at
Speaker 4: twenty nine, Larrose at twelve. This is all about Trump.
Speaker 12: Then, Yeah, this race has been interesting. If you look
Speaker 12: at that number of undecided voters. When we started off,
Speaker 12: it was at fifty percent, and even this weekend when
Speaker 12: we're polling, it was at twenty percent. But we didn't
Speaker 12: let those undecided voters off the hook in our polling.
Speaker 12: We pushed them into who would they actually choose, and
Speaker 12: that's where we see a bump for Dolan. So that
Speaker 12: nine point ten point gap tightens to four to five
Speaker 12: points when we pushed these undecided voters at twenty percent,
Speaker 12: suggesting that this race could tighten tomorrow on election Day.
Speaker 10: So it'll be a very interesting day. Indeed, are voters
Speaker 10: discriminating issue wise between the different individuals here, are are
Speaker 10: voters who are likely to vote for Moreno prioritizing something
Speaker 10: over over the others.
Speaker 12: Yeah, that's the immigration policy issues and economy. Those two
Speaker 12: break for Moreno. He's leading those voters. If you got
Speaker 12: into topics like education or healthcare, well then Dolan is
Speaker 12: actually leading with like seventy percent. But the problem for
Speaker 12: Dolan is those issues are only top issues for about
Speaker 12: four or five percent of Republican primary voters. Immigration, in
Speaker 12: the economy, they're combined for about seventy five percent as
Speaker 12: the most important issue. So that gives Moreno a good
Speaker 12: position at least on those two issues.
Speaker 4: We're talking with Spencer Kimball from Emerson College Polling. Of course,
Speaker 4: this is the primary to find out who's going to
Speaker 4: run against Senator Schared Brown, a very important seat for Democrats, Spencer,
Speaker 4: and fascinating. In your most recent poll you found out
Speaker 4: that he's actually doing pretty well strangely with Trump supporters.
Speaker 4: Eight percent of Trump voters planned to split their ticket
Speaker 4: and vote for Brown. So what kind of a situation
Speaker 4: is he in? This was said to be the political
Speaker 4: fight of his life.
Speaker 12: Well, he's certainly in a dogfight, depends on who gets
Speaker 12: the nomination. In our polling, he seems to run better
Speaker 12: against Moreno at this point than he does against Dolan
Speaker 12: in a general election. But what we're seeing in Ohio
Speaker 12: is very similar to what we're seeing in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 12: where Trump is leading against Biden. And yet all of
Speaker 12: these Democratic Senate candidates are leading their Republican challengers by
Speaker 12: two to three points, even in a state like Montana
Speaker 12: where Trump is up by fifteen sixteen points. So we'll
Speaker 12: see if that ticket splitting survives the fall. But that's
Speaker 12: what we're seeing at this time.
Speaker 10: Well, and Spencer, That's what's so interesting is because here
Speaker 10: in Washington, the entire entire conversation about the balance of
Speaker 10: the Senate seems to be centered on Ohio and Montana.
Speaker 10: Tester and Brown are seen as the most vulnerable Democrats.
Speaker 10: Is your polling suggesting that maybe they aren't actually as
Speaker 10: vulnerable as previously thought.
Speaker 12: Well, they're vulnerable, don't get me wrong, but they're not
Speaker 12: you know, they're not losing like Joe Manchin who dropped
Speaker 12: out of the race in West Virginia because he was
Speaker 12: trailing in the polls by thirteen points. They're not doing
Speaker 12: as well as Josh Holly out of Missouri, who's leading
Speaker 12: by ten. But there's a little struggle for Ted Cruz
Speaker 12: down in Texas. The bigger concern I would have is
Speaker 12: out in Arizona, which is an open seat, and those
Speaker 12: are tough. Same thing in Michigan. You don't want to
Speaker 12: just dismiss open seats that the Democrats are going to
Speaker 12: keep those. But if you get that ticket split, or
Speaker 12: if there's a momentum towards Biden at the end of
Speaker 12: the day, we could see the Democrats maybe holding on
Speaker 12: to the Senate, but obviously losing West Virginia puts it
Speaker 12: generally at fifty to fifty, So it'll come down to
Speaker 12: the presidential election if those other seats hold well.
Speaker 4: I see as you look ahead to Pennsylvania, you've got
Speaker 4: Casey over McCormick in the Senate race there forty five
Speaker 4: percent to forty one percent, which is fascinating here. I
Speaker 4: don't know when we consider some of the numbers you
Speaker 4: have on Joe o'biden and Donald Trump. If we can
Speaker 4: just touch the hypothetical for a moment here as well, Spencer.
Speaker 4: In a state like Pennsylvania, Donald Trump forty seven, Joe
Speaker 4: Biden forty three, that's supposed to be home turf for
Speaker 4: Joe Biden. That's that's a racing.
Speaker 12: Site that happens to kind of explain what we're seeing
Speaker 12: in Pennsylvania. We're seeing it across the country is eighteen
Speaker 12: to twenty nine year olds are voting more like two
Speaker 12: thousand or two thousand and four when John Carrey or
Speaker 12: Al Gore is the nominee and not like when Barack
Speaker 12: Obama was the candidate. When Obama is the candidate, the
Speaker 12: youth vote breaks for the Democrats two to one, and
Speaker 12: they were able to carry that in twenty sixteen with
Speaker 12: Clinton and to the same extent with Biden in twenty twenty.
Speaker 12: What the polling this year is showing is that that
Speaker 12: youth vote is no longer breaking two to one. It
Speaker 12: looks maybe by a ten point lead. And that's what
Speaker 12: Carrie won the youth vote by in two thousand and four,
Speaker 12: and in some polls it's even it's split. And that's
Speaker 12: what Bush and Gore looked like in two thousand. So
Speaker 12: this realignment of political ideology, particularly with the youth vote
Speaker 12: is something that the Democrats are clearly concerned about.
Speaker 10: There's also just the question of the undecided voter Spencer.
Speaker 10: In that poll that Joe was referencing in Pennsylvania, about
Speaker 10: ten percent of voterstad they were still undecided in the
Speaker 10: presidential contest. Do you actually believe that? And is it
Speaker 10: going to be a matter of undecided voters actually choosing
Speaker 10: a candidate or whether undecided voters choose.
Speaker 12: To vote's that's exactly it. Who comes out in this election?
Speaker 12: Remember in twenty twenty we had a record turnout. It
Speaker 12: was during COVID We had over one hundred and fifty
Speaker 12: five million people vote, fifteen million more than in twenty sixteen.
Speaker 12: Is that fifteen million going to come out again or
Speaker 12: did they stay home? And where do they not break?
Speaker 12: And that's something that both parties are going to be
Speaker 12: working on. It's a state by state election here, but
Speaker 12: that's something that we're looking at too. As far as
Speaker 12: the enthusiasm gap that we have, and what's interesting is
Speaker 12: that while Biden might lack enthusiasm on the top of
Speaker 12: the ticket, these other Democratic candidates like shared Brown, as
Speaker 12: you mentioned, has more enthusiasm. So it's almost as if
Speaker 12: these down ballots might be able to carry Biden over
Speaker 12: the finish line in some of these states.
Speaker 4: Wow, it's got reverse coattails coming here, Spencer Kimball. It's
Speaker 4: good to see it, Spencer. Great to catch up and
Speaker 4: thanks for sharing these brand new numbers with us. Here
Speaker 4: for Ohio Emerson College Polling Center executive director. It's good
Speaker 4: to know important people. Kayley, we got the first look
Speaker 4: at this stuff. That's fascinating what we could learn tomorrow.
Speaker 10: Absolutely, it's going to be an exciting primary race, at
Speaker 10: least down the ballot in Ohio.
Speaker 4: See about itself, not so much on the top. Sure enough.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens
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Speaker 4: Thirty Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee lines in Washington, d C.
Speaker 4: This is Balance of Power on Bloomberg's and radio, and
Speaker 4: we're glad you're with us. As Joe Biden today gets
Speaker 4: on the phone with Benjamin Netanyaho for the first time
Speaker 4: in a month. We've talked a bit about the strained
Speaker 4: relations between the White House and Tel Aviv, of course
Speaker 4: over policy in Gaza with a looming invasion, if I
Speaker 4: can use that term of rafa, and it's something that
Speaker 4: they continue to talk about coming off of Chuck Schumer's
Speaker 4: address last week in which he called for new elections
Speaker 4: in Israel. Benjamin Netanya, who reacting to what the majority
Speaker 4: the leader had to say here, he is what.
Speaker 13: He said is totally inappropriate. It's inappropriate for to go
Speaker 13: to a sister democracy and try to replace the elected
Speaker 13: leadership there. That's something that Israel, Israeli public does on
Speaker 13: its own, and we're not a Banana republic.
Speaker 10: And we want to turn out to an expert in
Speaker 10: the Middle East joining us now as Hagar Shamali. She's
Speaker 10: former director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council.
Speaker 10: She's now founder and CEO at Greenwich Media Strategies. Hagar
Speaker 10: are always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.
Speaker 10: We have gotten a very brief statement from the White
Speaker 10: House about the call that took place between Biden and
Speaker 10: Prime Minister Netanyahu today They said that discuss the latest
Speaker 10: developments in Israel and Gaza, including the situation in Rafa
Speaker 10: and efforts to serge humanitarian assistance to Gaza. They say
Speaker 10: a readout is forthcoming. We have not gotten that readout yet.
Speaker 10: But what do you hope was communicated by President Biden
Speaker 10: to Netanyahu on this call, And how do you expect that, Frankly,
Speaker 10: any communication from the US president right now is being
Speaker 10: received on the other end.
Speaker 14: Well, there are two sides to this at the moment.
Speaker 14: So on one hand, what President Biden likely did was
Speaker 14: he had to do a little bit of damage control
Speaker 14: following Schumer's statement, in particular because for him to go,
Speaker 14: for sure, to go out and say toward a democracy,
Speaker 14: toward a country that we are that is an ally
Speaker 14: of the United States, that new elections are needed. I'm
Speaker 14: not one to repeat or pirate Netanyahu's talking points, but
Speaker 14: that is not the norm for the United States in
Speaker 14: foreign policy dealing with a democratic government and a democratic friend.
Speaker 14: In particular, we do say occasionally that elections are needed
Speaker 14: in countries, but that's where we've seen there to be
Speaker 14: not free and fair elections, or that there's a dictator
Speaker 14: and authoritarian who's not respecting democracy or elections. Are that kind?
Speaker 14: So to say in this context is is not the
Speaker 14: way you work with a country like Israel. It's certainly
Speaker 14: not how you're going to get the Israeli government to
Speaker 14: cooperate with you, which is Biden's number one goal. So
Speaker 14: on one hand you probably had to do some damage control,
Speaker 14: and then the other he had to press really hard
Speaker 14: and say, listen, Bibi, you're putting me between a rock
Speaker 14: and a hard place. I want to help you. I've
Speaker 14: been supporting you, We've been very clear about that. But
Speaker 14: your behavior is going to cause a problem for me
Speaker 14: on Capitol Hill. And that problem could be very real.
Speaker 14: It could yield, It could result in a halting of
Speaker 14: aid or less aid or conditional aid. And so therefore
Speaker 14: you got to work with me, and we have to
Speaker 14: work on what's happening in Rafa. This is how we
Speaker 14: see what's going to happen in Rafa if you invade
Speaker 14: right now, and it would be catastrophic. As we know,
Speaker 14: we've talked about it together, about the fact that you
Speaker 14: have about one point three one point four million gods
Speaker 14: and refugees who've sought refuge there and without a clear plan.
Speaker 14: It's hard for the US, for US as your friend,
Speaker 14: to back you up. So that's probably two sides of
Speaker 14: the conversation he had in beb This was.
Speaker 4: In the air yesterday at the White House Higuard during
Speaker 4: the Saint Patrick's Day celebration. The Prime Minister of Ireland
Speaker 4: spoke about this publicly while he was with the President.
Speaker 4: Speaking with reporters, he said, quote, the Irish people have
Speaker 4: such empathy for the Palestinian people unquote, And the President
Speaker 4: said that t Shock and I agree about the urgent
Speaker 4: need to increase humanitarian aid in Gaza and get the
Speaker 4: cease fire deal? Is that what led to this phone
Speaker 4: call this morning when Benjamin nettya who is hearing about
Speaker 4: conversations like these that the President is having openly.
Speaker 14: Well, from what I understand from my friends in Washington,
Speaker 14: this is the situation in Rafa and the humanitarian situation
Speaker 14: in general in Gaza is top of mind for the
Speaker 14: Bide administration. This is something that they're actively working on
Speaker 14: on a daily basis. They have people traveling to Israel
Speaker 14: regularly trying to press the Israeli government on the need
Speaker 14: to open more roots, to get more humanitarian in to
Speaker 14: inspect things faster, to open a maritime things of this kind,
Speaker 14: and so I don't know that that itself was what
Speaker 14: precipitated this call. I think in general you have regular communication,
Speaker 14: but when you see the situation you have. Now you
Speaker 14: have the UN saying that people are in danger of
Speaker 14: death because of famine and that it is an emergency,
Speaker 14: and you've got the US air dropping aid, which we
Speaker 14: both know is the most inefficient and expensive the way
Speaker 14: to do this, which only reflects how desperate the US
Speaker 14: government is to try and send some help in. Then
Speaker 14: that's all of that together is likely what precipitated this.
Speaker 3: Well.
Speaker 10: As we think about the efforts to get aid into Goza,
Speaker 10: there's also a question of what operations the Isle Defense
Speaker 10: Force may still undertake in Gaza. We know that there
Speaker 10: was another move on a hospital in Gaza City in
Speaker 10: the last several days. In Rafa, of course, remains a question,
Speaker 10: as it seems that Israel and Netniahu specifically still is
Speaker 10: indicating the number one priority is to take out Hamas
Speaker 10: to the extent that they can do. We have an understanding,
Speaker 10: Hagar of just how close they are to accomplishing that goal.
Speaker 14: It's a little difficult because the US has come out
Speaker 14: the US officials have said that they believe that the
Speaker 14: Israeli military has taken out about a third of Hamas's fighters,
Speaker 14: and Israel has has said things that are a bit
Speaker 14: similar to that. Actually, maybe they maybe they flighted those
Speaker 14: numbers a little bit more. But it's a little bit
Speaker 14: complicated because on one hand, you have the US saying that,
Speaker 14: and I having worked in the US government, obviously I
Speaker 14: have a reason to believe when the comes out with
Speaker 14: these figures, they don't really they don't say that unless
Speaker 14: they're pretty certain of them. But also the part that's
Speaker 14: complicated the fact that you have Nittan Yahoo coming out
Speaker 14: and saying that that they're at the tail end. And
Speaker 14: he said that, he said, we're at the very end.
Speaker 14: We just need to go to Rafa and we need
Speaker 14: to control Rafa, and then we're at the end. And
Speaker 14: I want to be clear when he says that, what
Speaker 14: he means is that they're at the after Rafa, after
Speaker 14: an operation in Rafa, which would be the last the
Speaker 14: last area city that is that is not under Israeli
Speaker 14: military control, that operations might transition to something that's lower intensity,
Speaker 14: but that the war wouldn't The entire war wouldn't end.
Speaker 14: The effort to undermine Hamas to go after its fighters
Speaker 14: wouldn't end. From what I can see and have studied,
Speaker 14: it's that you still have those tunnel networks are very
Speaker 14: active in supporting Hamas and keeping them alive. Apparently they're
Speaker 14: warfare at the moment. While they are definitely on the
Speaker 14: other end of they're losing. Hamas is losing. That's very clear.
Speaker 14: What they've been what they've been doing now is retreating
Speaker 14: in tunnels and they'll pop out, they'll do an attack,
Speaker 14: and they'll retreat again. And so that is what the
Speaker 14: Israeli government is focused on. And the way the Israeli
Speaker 14: government sees this is they cannot they cannot just retreat
Speaker 14: right now because if they did, then everything that has
Speaker 14: happened thus far, without defeating Hamas's ability to launch attacks
Speaker 14: to govern Gaza, then everything would have been for nothing.
Speaker 14: And that's how these are the military season, that's how
Speaker 14: these are the government sees it. So while I believe
Speaker 14: that Yahoo met when he says that the end is near,
Speaker 14: what he means is that for the high intensity part
Speaker 14: after Rafa happens. But I don't want to make it
Speaker 14: sound as though that wouldn't have severe humanitarian consequences, because.
Speaker 4: It would, right sure, Reguard, there were reports a couple
Speaker 4: of weeks back that Israel was beginning to flood the
Speaker 4: tunnels beneath Gaza with seawater. Is that how this ends?
Speaker 14: Some of them have been flooded with seawater, some of
Speaker 14: them is The Israel government has called in Israeli engineers
Speaker 14: to also come in and dismantle or destroy some of
Speaker 14: these tunnels. They from what I from what I from
Speaker 14: what they say, They say that this won't end until
Speaker 14: they've destroyed all the tunnels. And I believe that because
Speaker 14: they don't invade Gaza often. This is this They they
Speaker 14: haven't been physically in Gaza since two thousand and six,
Speaker 14: two thousand and five, where they left and and and
Speaker 14: given the threat and October seven and what they faced,
Speaker 14: they feel that they must dismantle everything that supports Hamas,
Speaker 14: that props them up, that keep them living and u
Speaker 14: And you can tell that the US government degrees with
Speaker 14: that somewhat, because otherwise the US would be calling for
Speaker 14: an immediate, permanent ceasefire right now, and they're not. They're
Speaker 14: calling for a temporary one because they want to they
Speaker 14: want to get some hostages released. They want to gain
Speaker 14: some time so that maybe they can lay the groundwork
Speaker 14: for a permanent ceasefire. But that permanent ceasefire could only
Speaker 14: take place if Hamas isn't governing Gaza, So they want
Speaker 14: to create the space for that in a way that
Speaker 14: isn't such doesn't create such humanitarian devastation and catastrophe. But
Speaker 14: that's but at the end, both sides agree on the
Speaker 14: need to defeat Hamas completely. It's just that the US
Speaker 14: would like to see it in an approach that protects
Speaker 14: civilians as much as possible.
Speaker 2: Gar.
Speaker 4: It's great to have you back. Thanks for the insights.
Speaker 4: Higar Shamali now at Greenwich Media Strategies, formerly National Security Council.
Speaker 4: Thanks for being with us, Thanks for listening to the
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