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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

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Speaker 2: Catch us live weekdays at noon Eastern on Applecarplay.

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Speaker 3: And then proudo with the Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

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Speaker 2: us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Monday edition of Ballots of Power. I'm

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Speaker 4: Joe Matthew in Washington, where we have reached peak bloom

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Speaker 4: pay no attention to what's happening or not. In the

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Speaker 4: case of Capitol Hill, the cherry blossoms have reached stage six.

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Speaker 4: It's sixty something degrees outside, the tourists are clogging our streets,

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Speaker 4: and spring is at hand. In Washington, the question is, well,

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Speaker 4: the government shut down on Friday, even if for a

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Speaker 4: minute the chance of a possible stumble into a shutdown

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Speaker 4: may have just gotten greater. We've been talking, of course,

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Speaker 4: about a couple of solutions here that might include a

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Speaker 4: continuing resolution for the Department of Homeland Security. That's where

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Speaker 4: they had a sticking point there when it comes to

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Speaker 4: border language, how to deal with border agents, border security,

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Speaker 4: and the rest. We can't get past anything having to

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Speaker 4: do with the border without an argument, and so here

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Speaker 4: we are. We thought we might get text tonight. Now

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Speaker 4: it appears we may not. And if that is the case,

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Speaker 4: we could have a scenario in which we just bump

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Speaker 4: into that shutdown midnight on Friday because they can't get

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Speaker 4: everything done in time. And that's where we want to

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Speaker 4: start the conversation with Eric Watson reporting over the weekend

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Speaker 4: and just hearing now from some lawmakers as we wait

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Speaker 4: for the return of the House. It's good to see Eric,

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Speaker 4: what kind of odds are we putting on this here?

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Speaker 4: Because this DHS bill seems to be a problem.

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Speaker 5: You know, it's really touching Gough. I keep hearing from

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Speaker 5: sources yesterday on Sunday that was coming out soon. Then

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Speaker 5: it wasn't, you know, And then today as well, we

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Speaker 5: were respecting it, and now it seems like it's not.

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Speaker 5: But I just heard from a source that it may

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Speaker 5: still come out. So not there yet, but things are difficult. Basically,

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Speaker 5: it's six parts of this package of funny everything from

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Speaker 5: the Pentagon to the Department of Education. But one part

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Speaker 5: of it is the Homeland Security Bill, which has been

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Speaker 5: really the big sticking point between Congress and Biden administration

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Speaker 5: on border This wouldn't solve the border policy dispute remain

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Speaker 5: in Mexico and all of that, but it would They

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Speaker 5: are trying to, you know, increase the number of detension

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Speaker 5: beds for ice for example, you know, increase border patrol funding.

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Speaker 5: But you know, they're kind of in a deadlock here,

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Speaker 5: so I think it may still come out. But as

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Speaker 5: you noted, the House has this procedure of US wait

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Speaker 5: seventy two hours that could be waved. It was waved

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Speaker 5: in the case of a of a CR of stopgap

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Speaker 5: bill if it's not. You know, this pushes the Senate

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Speaker 5: right up against the deadline. And we know things can

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Speaker 5: move lightning fast with unanimous consent in the Senate, but

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Speaker 5: they also can drag you out. So yeah, we could

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Speaker 5: see a weekend shut down, which some sources say is

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Speaker 5: not such a such a bad thing, or they could

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Speaker 5: pass a three day CR. But you know, I think

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Speaker 5: this will get resolved there. It's been hang ups about

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Speaker 5: these detention beds and so forth before the appropse committees

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Speaker 5: for PRICIS committees know how to resolve this problem, but

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Speaker 5: it's so blamed at the President and speaker level that

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Speaker 5: that maybe we do stumble into shut.

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Speaker 4: Well, I guess it's it's inevitable at some point, right,

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Speaker 4: my god, I don't know if I've lost count. This

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Speaker 4: would be our fifth cr if we actually needed one.

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Speaker 4: I think if you're dancing on the ash so long

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Speaker 4: like this, eventually you're going to fall off, right.

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Speaker 5: I think so. But it's so late towards the election year,

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Speaker 5: so really people don't like to mess around with that

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Speaker 5: so close to a time when voters may remember and

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Speaker 5: sign Lane and the Speaker has and House Pokans have

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Speaker 5: really decided that they're not going to kind of provoke

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Speaker 5: a shutdown, doing everything they can to avoid it. Now.

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Speaker 5: They won't sign on to something such as green lighting

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Speaker 5: Biden migration policies that could get them in trouble with

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Speaker 5: their base, but you know, they can score some kind

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Speaker 5: of policy wins here. I think it's going to go through.

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Speaker 4: Fascinating. So we've got a lot to learn. I guess

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Speaker 4: over the next couple of days here, if there is

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Speaker 4: a shutdown, Eric, it's going to be something very short,

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Speaker 4: is the idea? Right, We're actually a lot closer to

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Speaker 4: finishing this in the end. It would almost be an

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Speaker 4: accidental shutdown. If this happens or are there some lawmakers

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Speaker 4: who want to make a point.

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Speaker 5: There always are some that do are advocating a shutdown,

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Speaker 5: especially in the House Freedom Caucus, but they're kind of

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Speaker 5: marginalized here, they're not really central to the discussion. And again,

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Speaker 5: there's been a law passed recently that even those non

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Speaker 5: essential workers who are furlowed will get paid. So that

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Speaker 5: is a waste of money for the government for work,

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Speaker 5: paying for work that wasn't done. But those workers will

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Speaker 5: eventually get paid for sure. Now because always an open

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Speaker 5: question before this law was passed. The essential workers work

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Speaker 5: and they don't get the pay right away, but don't

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Speaker 5: get it later. So it's really a good question of

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Speaker 5: contract and others. But and we can't shutdown probably doesn't

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Speaker 5: have a big impact on many people and certainly doesn't

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Speaker 5: have an impact on the economy.

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Speaker 4: Well, let's see what we can do this week, Eric Wasson,

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Speaker 4: great to see you. Welcome back to the Fray here

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Speaker 4: with the countdown. That'll bring us to midnight Friday once again,

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Speaker 4: we'll see if we can get this done. And of course,

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Speaker 4: if you listen to this program, you will know long

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Speaker 4: before it happens. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, as we

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Speaker 4: spend a couple of plates here. This would typically be

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Speaker 4: a pretty quiet period of time on a Monday like this,

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Speaker 4: the eighteenth of March, but we've got a lot to

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Speaker 4: talk about with not only a potential shutdown this late

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Speaker 4: in the game in the fiscal year, but just an

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Speaker 4: endless string of headlines coming from Israel. And we just

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Speaker 4: got another important one here as Joe Biden and Benjamin

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Speaker 4: Netanya who have held their first call. We have just

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Speaker 4: learned in more than a month. This of course, against

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Speaker 4: the backdrop of some very difficult policy and politics with

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Speaker 4: regard to Israel and Gaza that have dogged this president

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Speaker 4: here on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue when it

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Speaker 4: comes to progressive Democrats on Capitol Hill, and also on

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Speaker 4: the campaign trail with an uncommitted vote, protest vote that

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Speaker 4: has followed him through states like Michigan and Minnesota. Interesting yesterday,

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Speaker 4: Saint Patrick's Day, the President and the Prime Minister of Ireland,

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Speaker 4: the Tea Shock together for Saint Patrick's Day dinner at

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Speaker 4: the White House for what would normally be a very

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Speaker 4: fun celebration, and this was very much in the air.

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Speaker 4: The Tea Shock explained why Ireland has such a long

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Speaker 4: history of supporting and backing the Palestinians. In this case,

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Speaker 4: they both acknowledged the need for aid, and we want

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Speaker 4: to talk a bit about the risks that come with that.

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Speaker 4: It's a conversation we were having in our newsroom. The

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Speaker 4: idea of not only air dropping supplies but also setting

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Speaker 4: up a temporary port or peer is fraught with risk,

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Speaker 4: and this is why this would be done by the military.

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Speaker 4: In part, Kelly Grico is with a senior fellow at

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Speaker 4: the Reimagining Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center. Kelly,

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Speaker 4: welcome back to Bloomberg. Is great to have you. There

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Speaker 4: are a lot of questions still about whether we can

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Speaker 4: pull this off, knowing that we don't want to put

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Speaker 4: us boots on the ground to make this temporary peer work.

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Speaker 4: Is it still the best option we have?

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Speaker 6: Well, first, thank you for having me. As you said,

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Speaker 6: this is a really challenging time with what's happening in

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Speaker 6: Gaza and the humanitarian crisis. You know the question you ask,

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Speaker 6: is this the best option? Well, no, it's not the

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Speaker 6: best option. In the suns that there are trucks you

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Speaker 6: know in Egypt right now that are loaded and ready

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Speaker 6: to go into Gaza. But as long as that is

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Speaker 6: blocked as an option, we need to find potentially some

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Speaker 6: way to bring in a greater volume of aid than

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Speaker 6: as possible through hair drops.

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Speaker 4: We've heard criticism of this idea from both sides of

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Speaker 4: the aisle, and we know that a couple of trucks,

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Speaker 4: the second AID truck has now arrived on a shipment

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Speaker 4: rather have arrived on Gaza's shore. I shouldn't say truck,

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Speaker 4: but a second a ship has to the extent that

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Speaker 4: we can build a temporary peer, how would that work

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Speaker 4: if we don't want to have American boots on the ground.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So I think it's important to say that there

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Speaker 6: are really two things that need to be constructed for

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Speaker 6: this operation. One is to actually construct a floating dock

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Speaker 6: which would be a little bit further out of sea,

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Speaker 6: so that large cargo ships could pull up to that

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Speaker 6: dock and unload their cargo and then it would then

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Speaker 6: be transferred to smaller ships that would then be headed

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Speaker 6: towards what would be the second thing that needs to

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Speaker 6: be constructed, which is a floating pier and causeway, and

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Speaker 6: that would be where those things would then be unloaded

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Speaker 6: and then trucks would then take it and distribute it

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Speaker 6: to gossens. So you need to construct both of those.

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Speaker 6: Of course, the question a lot of people have is

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Speaker 6: how do you construct a peer without US forces being

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Speaker 6: put on the ground. And the way to do that

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Speaker 6: is you can drupted at sea and then you essentially

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Speaker 6: drive it in to connect with the lands. Yes, so

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Speaker 6: technically there are not your troops on the ground.

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Speaker 4: Do we have any reason to believe that Israel would

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Speaker 4: stop this from happening? What if Israel doesn't want this here?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 6: I mean I think if Israel doesn't want this, I

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Speaker 6: don't see how this is viable because, frankly, at least

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Speaker 6: in some of the reporting, it seems to be that

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Speaker 6: the Israelis are going to provide an outer security parameter,

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Speaker 6: and that would be key for two reasons. One because,

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Speaker 6: of course there would be concerns about attacks from Hamas

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Speaker 6: or some other kind of actor on the infrastructure and

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Speaker 6: forces at sea. And then the second piece would also

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Speaker 6: be that you know, these are people in Gaza that

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Speaker 6: are desperate, They're going to rush towards the AID. It's understandable,

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Speaker 6: but it creates a really dangerous security situation, and so

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Speaker 6: you would need some presence on the ground providing security,

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Speaker 6: so that in this case has to be the Israelis.

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Speaker 4: We have a trust problem here. When the World's Central Kitchen,

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Speaker 4: which is behind these shipments, says two hundred tons of

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Speaker 4: aid was on board and the IDF says it was

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Speaker 4: one hundred and fifteen tons, we have a problem here, right, Yes.

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Speaker 6: I mean I don't know what accounts for the difference

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Speaker 6: or how they're making their calculations, but I would say,

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Speaker 6: you know, two hundred tons, it's not nothing, you know,

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Speaker 6: to scove at, but it is actually pretty small and

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Speaker 6: compared to what the actual needs are. And that ship,

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Speaker 6: for example, stopped at a bar, a smaller bars because

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Speaker 6: it's a smaller ship.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 6: I think the question is, again the kind of volumes

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Speaker 6: that are required requires an ability to bring in much

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Speaker 6: larger ships. And so I think you're raising the right issue,

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Speaker 6: which is, you know, is real going to allow that

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Speaker 6: and have concerns about what's on these ships.

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Speaker 4: For example, as we spend time with Kelly Griico from

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Speaker 4: the Stimpson Center, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This phone call,

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Speaker 4: I assume is going to lead to some settlement of

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Speaker 4: these questions. Today President Biden and Benjaminettania who talking about

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Speaker 4: specifically the issue of delivering aid but also managing an

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Speaker 4: invasion of Rafa, And I wonder your thoughts on that,

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Speaker 4: with your expertise in this field. Is it possible for

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Speaker 4: the IDEF to actually get civilians out of the way that,

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Speaker 4: of course, is the Hamas strategy right to use them

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Speaker 4: as human shields.

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Speaker 6: Yes, I mean, I think it's really difficult. I mean,

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Speaker 6: I think we sometimes we have the answer because we've

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Speaker 6: seen throughout the course of the operations of Israel making

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Speaker 6: announcements Forrazilians to go places, and then it's just really hard,

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Speaker 6: given how the concentration of population, to sort of clear

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Speaker 6: these areas from any kind of civilians. And this is

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Speaker 6: the reality I think of war. I think the more

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Speaker 6: interesting thing to me will be, you know, Biden publicly

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Speaker 6: declared it a red line around Rapa in terms of

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Speaker 6: wanting a plan to protect civilians, and whether you know

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Speaker 6: the President is now on board with that Israeli planed,

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Speaker 6: or if he's actually going to take a much harder

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Speaker 6: position now and try to put pressure on the Israelis

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Speaker 6: to move in a different direction. Use leverage that we have,

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Speaker 6: which is largely our military aid to Israel.

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Speaker 4: We've spoken a lot, of course about Israel in this case,

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Speaker 4: but as well funding for the war in Israel, it's

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Speaker 4: tied to funding for the war in Ukraine, Kelly, and

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Speaker 4: it's still hung up in Washington, even as the President

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Speaker 4: tries to move this needle. It's just not been happening lately,

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Speaker 4: and it's created a real concern in Ukraine as they

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Speaker 4: run out of ammunition. I know this is also something

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Speaker 4: that you've got your eyes on. And after hearing from

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Speaker 4: Vladimir Putin over the weekend, re elected in air quotes

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Speaker 4: at eighty seven percent, I believe it was he talked

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Speaker 4: about cutting Ukrainian troops to pieces, and I wonder to

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Speaker 4: what extent this election will embolden him to try to

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Speaker 4: finish the job.

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Speaker 6: Yes, I mean, I think one of the things that

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Speaker 6: we should be looking at to see is if you're

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Speaker 6: going to now feel competent enough to announce another partial mobilization.

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Speaker 6: You know, I think there's signs that that might indeed

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Speaker 6: be the case, and I think that actually creates real

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Speaker 6: challenges for Ukraine on the one issue that they have

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Speaker 6: control over. They may not have control over you know,

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Speaker 6: ammunition coming from the West or other kinds of weapons,

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Speaker 6: but they do have control over their mobilization, and right

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Speaker 6: now bills are hung up in their own government about

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Speaker 6: trying to mobilize more of their population. And so that's

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Speaker 6: my concern is really the shortage and personnel.

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Speaker 4: But of course if we look at the equipment side

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Speaker 4: as well, if this money were passed today in Washington,

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Speaker 4: when would we actually be able to make the shells

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Speaker 4: and deliver them?

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Speaker 6: Yeah, So, I mean the United States has ramped up

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Speaker 6: ammunition production quite a bit since the start of the war,

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Speaker 6: and by twenty twenty five, the Army has said that

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Speaker 6: they'll be able to produce one hundred rounds of these

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Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty five millimeter shells per month. So

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Speaker 6: I think actually, in terms of things like ammunition, we

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Speaker 6: probably can continue, you right now, to provide that to Ukraine.

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Speaker 6: And quickly the issue becomes harder when we start talking

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Speaker 6: about some of these systems that are more expensive and

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Speaker 6: that we don't have as many numbers, like missiles for

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Speaker 6: the Patriot systems that we've sent to Ukraine a tack THEMS.

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Speaker 6: These are these long range missile systems, those things there

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Speaker 6: would need to be time, and we're really coming down

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Speaker 6: to numbers here where I don't actually see how we're

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Speaker 6: able to send much more to Ukraine without endangering our

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Speaker 6: own stops.

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Speaker 4: Kelly Grico, thank you. It's great to have you back

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Speaker 4: from the Stimpson Center.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast Ken

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Speaker 1: Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appocarplay and then

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Speaker 1: Roudoo with the Bloomberg Business Ad.

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Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

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Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 4: After another wild weekend, I hope you had a great

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Speaker 4: Saint Pat stay wild on the campaign trail, or at

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Speaker 4: least in terms of some of the rhetoric that we heard,

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Speaker 4: and that means it is now time for us to

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Speaker 4: debate the context of the term bloodbath. If you weren't

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Speaker 4: paying attention over the weekend, I salute you. Maybe you

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Speaker 4: had a holiday to celebrate. But Donald Trump is floating

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Speaker 4: this idea. We'll give it to you in his words,

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Speaker 4: and we will give you the context of a one

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Speaker 4: hundred percent tariff on evs from China. It was what

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Speaker 4: he said after that, because that would be quite a

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Speaker 4: story on any day. But beyond the tariff, it was

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Speaker 4: the language that he chose. In some news organizations, you know,

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Speaker 4: they cut that right down to a narrow SoundBite, and

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Speaker 4: they got everybody upset. Let's hear it in full. This

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Speaker 4: is Donald Trump on the campaign trail over the weekend.

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Speaker 7: Listen if you're listening, presidency and you and I are friends,

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Speaker 7: but he understands the ideal. We're going to put a

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Speaker 7: one hundred percent tariff on every single car that comes

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Speaker 7: across the line, and you're not going to be able

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Speaker 7: to sell those goes if I get elected. If I

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Speaker 7: don't get elected, it's going to be a blood bath

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Speaker 7: for the whole That's going to be the least of it.

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Speaker 4: All Right, there you go, It's going to be a

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Speaker 4: blood bath. It's going to be the least of it. Now,

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Speaker 4: there's been an urging by Republicans, as I heard, and

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Speaker 4: some Democrats all throughout the day Sunday morning television and

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Speaker 4: on the news programs that context is everything here, slow

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Speaker 4: down mainstream media. But I guess the question is is

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Speaker 4: there a good context for a bloodbath? Let's assemble the

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Speaker 4: panel Rick Davis and Geanie Shanzo join on a Monday

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Speaker 4: back from the weekend our signature panel. Rick pull me

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Speaker 4: in off the ledge. Here are we making too much

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Speaker 4: of this?

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Speaker 8: You know, I don't think we're making too much of it,

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Speaker 8: but I'm not exactly sure we're talking about the right thing.

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Speaker 3: You know.

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Speaker 8: The one thing that I think gets missed by the media,

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Speaker 8: and it's been a big problem since the twenty twenty

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Speaker 8: elections is the proliferation of political violence. And no more

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Speaker 8: a great example of it than in a mild stomping

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Speaker 8: grounds in Arizona. Maricopa County Board of Supervisor is one

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Speaker 8: of the biggest counties in America, the hotbed for political

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Speaker 8: wins and losses in Arizona, and last week the Board

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Speaker 8: of Supervisors, the Maricopa County Board of Supervisers was was

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Speaker 8: attacked in their chambers during a meeting by Trump supporters

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Speaker 8: screaming revolution and this is this is a a an

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Speaker 8: attack on government, and they took over the podium. The

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Speaker 8: supervisors got out by a side door called the Sheriff's

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Speaker 8: office cut off the live feed. And this is the

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Speaker 8: context with which are top politician in the Republican Party

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Speaker 8: is talking about bloodbaths. Now, I don't really care what

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Speaker 8: the context is, whether it's about cars or whether it's

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Speaker 8: about the country, but it's not the kind of terminology

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Speaker 8: that I think we ought to be using in a

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Speaker 8: country that is already riff with political violence. And the

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Speaker 8: last thing he said, which wasn't in your clip, is

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Speaker 8: that it's going to be a blood bath for the country.

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Speaker 8: And so I'm just trying to piece together, like, so, okay,

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Speaker 8: so we don't have any Chinese evs coming in because

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Speaker 8: of his terra, why is that a blood bath for

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Speaker 8: the country.

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Speaker 4: I don't get.

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Speaker 8: I don't if he loses, so anyway, I think it's

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Speaker 8: all about context. I think that we need to be

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Speaker 8: very focused on political violence and this kind of hot

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Speaker 8: rhetoric doesn't help.

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Speaker 4: Well, that was awfully well answered, Genie. It seems like

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Speaker 4: this kind of stuff should be acknowledged. There isn't normalizing

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Speaker 4: after a while of you know what, I think Donald

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Speaker 4: Trump calls it locker room talk or something like that.

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Speaker 4: But it seems to me that the context might be

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Speaker 4: irrelevant here.

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Speaker 9: How about you, Well, I happen to agree with that.

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Speaker 9: I think any time we are trying to contextualize or

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Speaker 9: understand or decipher or channel what Donald Trump is talking about.

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Speaker 9: We have to take a step back and ask ourselves

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Speaker 9: does it really matter? He himself long ago said he

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Speaker 9: could shoot somebody on Fifth Avenue and it wouldn't matter.

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Speaker 9: He can say almost anything at this point, and it

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Speaker 9: doesn't matter to his voters. And I think rather than

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Speaker 9: asking what he means or what he was saying, or

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Speaker 9: was he talking about automobile tariffs or was he talking

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Speaker 9: about another January sixth, we're better off asking why doesn't

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Speaker 9: this matter to his voters? And there is a really

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Speaker 9: solid research base for answering that question. It doesn't matter

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Speaker 9: to his voters because his voters have long felt left

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Speaker 9: out and left aside and pushed away by both parties.

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Speaker 9: So they're not asking for an answer to their economic problems.

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Speaker 9: They are asking, quite frankly, for a middle finger to

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Speaker 9: the establishment, and that's what Donald Trump provides. So they're

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Speaker 9: in on all his jokes, his rhetorics, the more vulgar

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Speaker 9: the better. And so from this perspective, contextualizing what he

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Speaker 9: says doesn't matter. We should be focusing instead on what

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Speaker 9: he's proposing, and one hundred percent tariff on automobiles is

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Speaker 9: a big proposal with enormous ramifications. That should have been

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Speaker 9: the news, not the use of the term bloodbath.

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Speaker 4: Well, thank you both for being thoughtful on that. I'll

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Speaker 4: tell you there are some folks with a lot of

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Speaker 4: money who are giving a middle finger back to Donald Trump,

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Speaker 4: in this case those who gave Joe Biden fifty three

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Speaker 4: million dollars in February. This went to the reelection campaign

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Speaker 4: and the party. That's a record for the month. Rick,

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Speaker 4: the campaign has one hundred and fifty five million dollars

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Speaker 4: cash on hand, the most amassed for a Democrat at

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Speaker 4: this point in the calendar. How do you read that,

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Speaker 4: knowing that polling has been such a problem for him.

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Speaker 8: Yeah, Look, I mean he's got one of the essential

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Speaker 8: elements of a successful campaign, a financial advantage. Now, most

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Speaker 8: incumbent running for reelection are going to have a financial advantage,

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Speaker 8: but this has been a year where we've understood that

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Speaker 8: it's basically two incumbents running against each other. And Donald

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Speaker 8: Trump's been fundraising since the day he left office, and

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Speaker 8: the fact that he's spent down his wad of cash

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Speaker 8: and not insignificantly because of his legal problems, indicates a

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Speaker 8: real functional problem for Donald Trump. He probably doesn't need

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Speaker 8: to equal or exceed Biden's spending to be competitive. Obviously,

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Speaker 8: he's ahead in the polls right now in these targeted states.

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Speaker 8: But the campaign between the two of them has just

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Speaker 8: really begun, and the reality is he seedes this ground.

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Speaker 8: This financial turf to Biden is very dangerous. I don't

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Speaker 8: know any candidate who thinks that's a good idea. And so,

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Speaker 8: you know, kudos to the Democrats for hustling and getting

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Speaker 8: a lot of money in. And I think that there

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Speaker 8: are real concerns within the Republican Party about whether or

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Speaker 8: not Donald Trump is equipped to financial manages campaign. There's

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Speaker 8: no question that the RNC is a part of this problem.

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Speaker 8: Now he's now running the RNC and it doesn't have

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Speaker 8: any money. His campaign's basically broke, and he's got all

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Speaker 8: these bills coming in from lawyers. So it's a big problem.

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Speaker 4: It's a big problem, Genie. When Donald Trump says it

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Speaker 4: is a practical impossibility, that is a quote from the

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Speaker 4: court filing to post full bond while he appeals the

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Speaker 4: penalty four hundred and fifty four million dollar penalty against

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Speaker 4: him in New York's civil fraud case. He says doing

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Speaker 4: so may require cash reserves nearing a billion dollars. We

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Speaker 4: still have eight months left for this campaign. Right, We've

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Speaker 4: been talking about the longest ever and likely most expensive

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Speaker 4: ever general election campaign and Joe Biden is sitting on

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Speaker 4: more money than a Democrat has ever had at this point.

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Speaker 4: Are we having the right conversation about this race?

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Speaker 9: Well, that's absolutely right. I mean, he had the strongest

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Speaker 9: fundraising amongst the grass roots, I think ever in modern

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Speaker 9: American history. But that number could be that could be wrong,

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Speaker 9: but it was a strong one. So, you know, to

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Speaker 9: echo what Joe Biden has been saying, you know, you

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Speaker 9: look at those polls and you feel that, you know,

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Speaker 9: he's widely unpopular at about thirty eight percent. But he

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Speaker 9: counters and says, look at the fundraising we are doing,

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Speaker 9: and it is not all from wealthy donors. A lot

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Speaker 9: of it is from the grassroots. So there is enthusiasm

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00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:28,639
Speaker 9: out there for the campaign. But the reality is, as

436
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:33,520
Speaker 9: you know, we constantly talk about Trump's rhetoric, and just

437
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 9: what we were talking about before, the question is going

438
00:23:36,160 --> 00:23:38,919
Speaker 9: to be does it even matter? I mean, Trump is

439
00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,200
Speaker 9: a master of the free media. He goes out over

440
00:23:42,240 --> 00:23:46,880
Speaker 9: the weekend, says something almost undecipherable, and that's all we

441
00:23:46,960 --> 00:23:50,800
Speaker 9: hear about. So, you know, traditionally I would agree the

442
00:23:50,840 --> 00:23:54,000
Speaker 9: money would matter an awful lot. But the reality is

443
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,760
Speaker 9: Donald Trump has really mastered this game of free media.

444
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:00,960
Speaker 9: He may continue to. So Joe Biden's going to be

445
00:24:01,040 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 9: helped by this number, for sure, but you know, you

446
00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:07,440
Speaker 9: have to ask how much and can he overcome these

447
00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:11,040
Speaker 9: slagging poll numbers in the Bloomberg Pole, in these key

448
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:15,600
Speaker 9: states where he is just consistently been behind increasingly So

449
00:24:15,720 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, well.

450
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,240
Speaker 4: Let's grab the third rail for a moment here, Rick Davis,

451
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 4: because Donald Trump did over the weekend he was asked

452
00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,159
Speaker 4: on Fox about this New York Times report that he

453
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 4: was about to settle on a six weeks pregnancy ban

454
00:24:31,400 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 4: an abortion ban after sixteen weeks. Knowing that this number

455
00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:36,920
Speaker 4: has been batted around a lot on the campaign trail,

456
00:24:37,720 --> 00:24:39,760
Speaker 4: he says, we're going to find out, and pretty soon

457
00:24:39,800 --> 00:24:42,679
Speaker 4: I'm going to be making a decision. Quote. I would

458
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:45,960
Speaker 4: like to see if we could make both sides happy. Unquote.

459
00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:49,040
Speaker 4: This is the man who takes credit for ending Roe V. Wade.

460
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:51,920
Speaker 4: How important will his answer be on this?

461
00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 8: It's an incredibly dangerous thing to set up for yourself. Right,

462
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 8: And this is the thing that I head scratching moment.

463
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,679
Speaker 8: Why is he even taking that on himself? Why doesn't

464
00:25:03,680 --> 00:25:06,360
Speaker 8: he just say, Hey, there's these guys, you know, DeSantis,

465
00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:09,199
Speaker 8: he's too short. You know, I'd like the way Yunkin

466
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,320
Speaker 8: did it. I mean, like, let those guys take the heat.

467
00:25:12,359 --> 00:25:16,399
Speaker 8: He's already got the pro life vote in his pocket.

468
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,920
Speaker 8: The only thing he can do is upset them. And

469
00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 8: if he picks a number that they don't like, you know,

470
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,040
Speaker 8: quote trying to make everybody happy, then I think it's

471
00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:28,680
Speaker 8: a problem for him. It is a very clear tell

472
00:25:29,240 --> 00:25:32,280
Speaker 8: that he's worried about this abortion issue, because otherwise, why

473
00:25:32,359 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 8: is he bringing it up.

474
00:25:34,720 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 4: I'd like to see if we could make both sides happy, Genie.

475
00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:40,240
Speaker 4: I don't know how he would manage to do. That

476
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 4: is another option. He never answers that question.

477
00:25:45,320 --> 00:25:49,119
Speaker 9: Yeah, that's another option. As we know, Donald Trump is

478
00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:52,560
Speaker 9: you know, probably the biggest stumbling block to his own

479
00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:55,760
Speaker 9: campaign or the things that he says and does repeatedly.

480
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,359
Speaker 9: Abortion is something that he has taken credit for the

481
00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,880
Speaker 9: overturning of Roe on a repeated basis. If it wasn't

482
00:26:02,920 --> 00:26:07,240
Speaker 9: for Donald Trump, we wouldn't have had the overturning of Roe,

483
00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 9: and he has said that consistently, so now he is

484
00:26:10,040 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 9: going to raise this and it's an issue that has

485
00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:17,320
Speaker 9: only helped the Democrats and the pro choice side. So

486
00:26:17,720 --> 00:26:20,160
Speaker 9: I'm not sure why he's raising it. I am sure

487
00:26:20,240 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 9: his campaign doesn't want him to, but as usual with

488
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:26,119
Speaker 9: Donald Trump, they can't stop him. He's his own worst

489
00:26:26,200 --> 00:26:27,840
Speaker 9: enemy in these in these situations.

490
00:26:29,000 --> 00:26:31,480
Speaker 4: You know, we haven't talked enough about Joe Biden in

491
00:26:31,520 --> 00:26:36,800
Speaker 4: this instance. Outside of his financial situation, Genie, the matter

492
00:26:36,840 --> 00:26:39,919
Speaker 4: of Israel followed him all weekend. It came up with

493
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:44,119
Speaker 4: the Prime Minister of Ireland at the Saint Patrick's Day dinner,

494
00:26:44,160 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 4: typically a very lighthearted affair, and news broke today since

495
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:49,480
Speaker 4: we've been on the air that he did have the

496
00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:53,120
Speaker 4: first call in a month with Benjamin Netanya who How

497
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:55,119
Speaker 4: important is it going to be for him to have

498
00:26:55,160 --> 00:26:57,720
Speaker 4: something to show for that call?

499
00:26:57,800 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 9: You know, I don't know that he's going to be

500
00:26:59,840 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 9: a to do anything with a phone call, the net

501
00:27:03,080 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 9: and Yahoo to assuage the the you know, the really

502
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:11,160
Speaker 9: really vocal protesters on the Democratic side. I do think

503
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 9: it is critically important as president of the United States

504
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,280
Speaker 9: that he keeps those channels open. He has a consistent conversation.

505
00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:21,600
Speaker 9: He assures Israel of our support for them as a

506
00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:25,359
Speaker 9: close ally. This is the difficulty of being an incumbent.

507
00:27:25,480 --> 00:27:28,720
Speaker 9: He's got to both, you know, speak to this base

508
00:27:28,800 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 9: that is very unhappy, and he's got to run the country,

509
00:27:32,359 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 9: and that is a difficult thing to do. So I

510
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,159
Speaker 9: don't know how he is going to make this that

511
00:27:37,320 --> 00:27:40,439
Speaker 9: much better in the short term, unless we hear that

512
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 9: there is indeed some type of cease fire that he

513
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,640
Speaker 9: can take some credit for.

514
00:27:46,840 --> 00:27:49,400
Speaker 4: This has been close to a breakdown in communications.

515
00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:49,920
Speaker 7: Rick.

516
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:53,600
Speaker 4: At one point, Joe Biden was quoted to say, you

517
00:27:53,680 --> 00:27:56,159
Speaker 4: hug Benjamin net and Yaho. The more problem you have,

518
00:27:56,240 --> 00:27:59,760
Speaker 4: the closer you hug him. And there hasn't been so

519
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:03,040
Speaker 4: much hugs lately here. It's become a political liability for

520
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,160
Speaker 4: Joe Biden. In our minute remaining, I'd ask you the same.

521
00:28:06,560 --> 00:28:09,760
Speaker 4: Does he need to start showing more results from these calls?

522
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 8: Yeah, Look, I mean they don't have a lack of communication,

523
00:28:13,920 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 8: they just have a disagreement.

524
00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:15,719
Speaker 4: You know.

525
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 8: Benjamin n. Yahoo is proceeding upon a path that he

526
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,960
Speaker 8: believes is good for the people of Israel and good

527
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 8: for his own political future, and Joe Biden's trying to

528
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,440
Speaker 8: minimize the carnage and bring Israel back.

529
00:28:29,240 --> 00:28:29,919
Speaker 3: Into the world.

530
00:28:30,080 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 8: Those are two things that right now standing contrast to

531
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:35,600
Speaker 8: one another, and until they start to get closer to

532
00:28:35,680 --> 00:28:38,320
Speaker 8: a center, that's going to be a disagreement that's going

533
00:28:38,360 --> 00:28:39,280
Speaker 8: to last a long time.

534
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 4: A tour de force with Rick and Jeanie. I love this.

535
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,080
Speaker 4: We should do this every Monday.

536
00:28:47,720 --> 00:28:50,680
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.

537
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,320
Speaker 2: Catch Just Live weekdays at noon Eastern on Eppo CarPlay and.

538
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:56,440
Speaker 3: Then Proud Oto with the Bloomberg Business app.

539
00:28:56,520 --> 00:28:59,600
Speaker 2: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

540
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:03,280
Speaker 2: us Love I've on YouTube.

541
00:29:03,720 --> 00:29:06,000
Speaker 10: Simmon's Monday it means we're about to start another week

542
00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 10: here in Washington, although technically lawmakers aren't really starting it yet.

543
00:29:11,360 --> 00:29:14,120
Speaker 10: It's only Monday today, It's only Monday, and yet Friday,

544
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:16,240
Speaker 10: Joe is a very important deadline when you're trying to

545
00:29:16,320 --> 00:29:20,440
Speaker 10: keep the spending equivalent of about seventy five percent of

546
00:29:20,520 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 10: the US government open beyond midnight at the end of

547
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:26,480
Speaker 10: this week, and that's looking difficult. As we begin the

548
00:29:26,520 --> 00:29:28,360
Speaker 10: week or kind of here in Washington.

549
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:30,960
Speaker 4: Yeah, I wonder is this a working weekend for Jack Fitzpatrick.

550
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 4: I bet he got some rest on Saint Patrick's Day.

551
00:29:34,280 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 4: He of course covers appropriations for Bloomberg government, and boy,

552
00:29:38,200 --> 00:29:41,720
Speaker 4: that has become quite the beat for any reporter in Washington.

553
00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,479
Speaker 4: That used to be a boring job. I think at

554
00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:46,400
Speaker 4: one point. Great to see you back, Jack, It's just

555
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 4: it strikes me that if you dance on the edge

556
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 4: long enough, eventually you're going to fall off. Here, even

557
00:29:51,520 --> 00:29:53,600
Speaker 4: with best intentions they try to get this thing done,

558
00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,360
Speaker 4: they might actually bump into the deadline this weekend.

559
00:29:56,400 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 11: Yes, I mean, it's never a boring beat for me,

560
00:29:58,480 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 11: but it is especially ten this year. As you mentioned,

561
00:30:02,880 --> 00:30:05,440
Speaker 11: this is the bigger deadline. We've been talking about them

562
00:30:05,440 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 11: struggling with funding the government for a while, but this

563
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:09,720
Speaker 11: is the one that includes the Department of Defense. This

564
00:30:09,760 --> 00:30:11,680
Speaker 11: is a little more than three quarters of the money.

565
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,800
Speaker 11: They really wanted a deal to come together by yesterday,

566
00:30:16,120 --> 00:30:18,560
Speaker 11: because they've got the seventy two hour rule in the House.

567
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,760
Speaker 11: If a deal came together right now, we'd be talking

568
00:30:21,800 --> 00:30:25,520
Speaker 11: about maybe a Thursday afternoon vote in the House that

569
00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,920
Speaker 11: gives the Senate very little time before Friday night. We

570
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 11: already know that the Senate would need unanimous consent to

571
00:30:32,000 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 11: hold a time to hold a vote in time. So

572
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 11: there are a lot of bowling pins in the air

573
00:30:38,080 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 11: that they're trying to juggle to get something done. And

574
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 11: I think we're at the point where they have not

575
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:47,000
Speaker 11: said they are talking about another stopgap, but logistically they'll

576
00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 11: probably have to start talking about at least a short

577
00:30:49,360 --> 00:30:51,680
Speaker 11: one if it doesn't come together right now.

578
00:30:51,840 --> 00:30:53,840
Speaker 10: And when we say short one, we're probably talking just

579
00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:56,640
Speaker 10: a number of days right to actually get the legislation

580
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 10: across the finish line, not another two tiered something the

581
00:30:59,800 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 10: kick the can for.

582
00:31:00,560 --> 00:31:01,080
Speaker 9: A few weeks.

583
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,960
Speaker 11: Another big one would be a tough sell because Republicans,

584
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,000
Speaker 11: you know, continuing resolutions CR used to be a term

585
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,640
Speaker 11: of art. Now that is a dirty word for Conservatives.

586
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:12,040
Speaker 11: They do not want to vote on a CR again.

587
00:31:12,400 --> 00:31:15,000
Speaker 11: Last time, when they struggled with the deadline, they talked about, well,

588
00:31:15,040 --> 00:31:16,880
Speaker 11: if we need like a two day stop gap, we

589
00:31:16,920 --> 00:31:17,920
Speaker 11: could do that.

590
00:31:17,920 --> 00:31:19,080
Speaker 4: That would probably be.

591
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:21,320
Speaker 11: The conversation if it doesn't come together with a real

592
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:22,760
Speaker 11: deal just about immediately.

593
00:31:23,040 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 4: So this is why we can't have nice things. The

594
00:31:26,160 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 4: language from speaker Johnson makes me wonder maybe you can

595
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:32,160
Speaker 4: bring us inside this debate over border spending a little bit.

596
00:31:32,840 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 4: We're working toward a deal. He said that reprioritizes DHS

597
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 4: funding towards enforcing border and immigration laws. They rejected a

598
00:31:41,560 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 4: one and a half billion dollar border security proposal here.

599
00:31:44,320 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 11: What do they want, Well, it's the same kind of

600
00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 11: issue that held up the foreign aid funding issue the

601
00:31:50,280 --> 00:31:55,360
Speaker 11: broader immigration negotiations. Republicans have said that the President keeps

602
00:31:55,400 --> 00:31:58,800
Speaker 11: asking for money that yes, would go to the Department

603
00:31:58,840 --> 00:32:03,320
Speaker 11: of Homeland Security, but it's more for processing people through

604
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 11: the system. Conservatives do not believe they're doing enough to

605
00:32:06,760 --> 00:32:09,640
Speaker 11: dissuade people from coming here in the first place. You

606
00:32:09,680 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 11: can talk about the remain in Mexico policy or a

607
00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:16,520
Speaker 11: variety of policies that would dissuade people from coming here

608
00:32:16,560 --> 00:32:21,920
Speaker 11: and seeking asylum, stop people from crossing the border illegally. Yeah,

609
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 11: they want HR two.

610
00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:24,400
Speaker 4: They wanted HR two before.

611
00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:28,240
Speaker 11: I'm sure the conversations have narrowed down to something shy

612
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:31,400
Speaker 11: of HR two. But when they thought they would need

613
00:32:31,440 --> 00:32:34,480
Speaker 11: to do a stop gap just for homeland security, because

614
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 11: they did talk about just a full year stop gap,

615
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,840
Speaker 11: they said, well, there would need to be some exceptions.

616
00:32:39,040 --> 00:32:42,280
Speaker 11: Once they talked about the exceptions for border security, they

617
00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:45,000
Speaker 11: realized that's the tough thing to negotiate, so they might

618
00:32:45,040 --> 00:32:47,120
Speaker 11: as well try to negotiate the whole bill. So they're

619
00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:50,800
Speaker 11: back at the age old problem now of what do

620
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:54,520
Speaker 11: you do on border security that feels like real border

621
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 11: security to the most conservative members who are willing to

622
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:58,240
Speaker 11: vote to fund the government.

623
00:32:58,520 --> 00:33:00,520
Speaker 10: So could we be in a situation where, because they're

624
00:33:00,520 --> 00:33:03,440
Speaker 10: facing down the threat of a shutdown of much wider

625
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,080
Speaker 10: parts of the government than just DHS. Because all of

626
00:33:06,120 --> 00:33:09,040
Speaker 10: this is getting rote together, Republicans actually have to give

627
00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,880
Speaker 10: some of the border measures and potentially a win to

628
00:33:11,920 --> 00:33:15,600
Speaker 10: the Biden administration on them by this for that reason,

629
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 10: rather than giving them the win earlier on in the

630
00:33:18,280 --> 00:33:20,040
Speaker 10: bipartisan deal that was negotiated.

631
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 11: You know, it's hard to define what a win would

632
00:33:23,080 --> 00:33:25,760
Speaker 11: be to the Biden administration because this is an issue

633
00:33:25,760 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 11: that's been pushed by conservatives. It's more of been a

634
00:33:28,640 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 11: question of how much of a win is enough for

635
00:33:31,040 --> 00:33:35,400
Speaker 11: them to vote for it. They pushed the Biden administration

636
00:33:35,480 --> 00:33:39,840
Speaker 11: in a more conservative direction on some of these asylum policies,

637
00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:44,040
Speaker 11: but it wasn't enough for the conservatives. We've gotten to

638
00:33:44,080 --> 00:33:46,320
Speaker 11: the point where a lot of people are kind of

639
00:33:46,360 --> 00:33:48,720
Speaker 11: going in circles about how much of a win is

640
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 11: something for us to really call a victory and how

641
00:33:51,440 --> 00:33:54,120
Speaker 11: much is too small so that we want to be

642
00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 11: able to run on this. The shadow of Donald Trump

643
00:33:57,320 --> 00:33:59,960
Speaker 11: is still hanging over anything with the.

644
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,040
Speaker 10: Border, all right, Jack Fitzpatrick of Bloomberg Government, going to

645
00:34:03,040 --> 00:34:05,160
Speaker 10: be a fun week for you, and hopefully not weekend,

646
00:34:05,240 --> 00:34:05,880
Speaker 10: I'm sure.

647
00:34:05,640 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 4: For deadlines that's coming someday, right for funding deadlines.

648
00:34:09,120 --> 00:34:15,319
Speaker 10: Don't wish that upon us, Thank you, Jack, And of

649
00:34:15,360 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 10: course he raises the specter of former President Trump, who

650
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 10: we know has had some influence in the minds of

651
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:22,600
Speaker 10: those on Capitol Hills, specifically when it comes to the

652
00:34:22,640 --> 00:34:25,160
Speaker 10: issue of border policy. He was not in favor of

653
00:34:25,160 --> 00:34:27,480
Speaker 10: that bipartisan deal that was struck, and then that bipartisan

654
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 10: deal very quickly died in this Congress. And of course

655
00:34:30,719 --> 00:34:32,719
Speaker 10: the former president Joe was in the news for other

656
00:34:32,760 --> 00:34:36,919
Speaker 10: reasons over this weekend as well, speaking in Ohio about

657
00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 10: a bloodbath, but specifically he was talking about the auto industry.

658
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:43,400
Speaker 10: It's become about context in the aftermath.

659
00:34:42,920 --> 00:34:46,880
Speaker 4: That's what they say. We were debating in our previous

660
00:34:46,920 --> 00:34:51,359
Speaker 4: hour whether there is a debate around context and whether

661
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:55,479
Speaker 4: there is any difference when it comes to a blood bath. Yes,

662
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:56,399
Speaker 4: you want to hear what he said.

663
00:34:56,520 --> 00:34:59,720
Speaker 10: We should hear from the former president this weekend.

664
00:35:00,320 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 7: If you're listening, Presidency and you and I are friends,

665
00:35:03,040 --> 00:35:05,520
Speaker 7: But he understands the ideal. We're going to put a

666
00:35:05,560 --> 00:35:08,719
Speaker 7: one hundred per tower for in every single car that

667
00:35:08,840 --> 00:35:11,160
Speaker 7: comes across the line, and you're not going to be

668
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,400
Speaker 7: able to sell those because if I get elected. Now,

669
00:35:14,440 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 7: if I don't get elected, it's going to be a

670
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:19,240
Speaker 7: bloodbath for the whole that's going to be the least

671
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:19,600
Speaker 7: of it.

672
00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:24,040
Speaker 10: And then of course we got to follow up on

673
00:35:24,120 --> 00:35:25,680
Speaker 10: true social after.

674
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:27,799
Speaker 4: This, Yeah, what is right? An A lot of people

675
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:29,640
Speaker 4: a probably at work by the time that happened.

676
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,360
Speaker 10: In part the fake news media and their democratic partners

677
00:35:32,360 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 10: in the destruction of our nation pretended to be shocked

678
00:35:34,680 --> 00:35:37,360
Speaker 10: at the use of my use of the word bloodbath,

679
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 10: even though they fully understood I was simply referring to

680
00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,279
Speaker 10: imports allowed by crooker Joe Biden, which are killing the

681
00:35:43,360 --> 00:35:44,480
Speaker 10: automobile industry.

682
00:35:44,560 --> 00:35:47,560
Speaker 4: Is the quote, Okay, social, I still don't get the

683
00:35:47,560 --> 00:35:50,200
Speaker 4: way of bloodbath would be better if it were over cars.

684
00:35:50,040 --> 00:35:51,000
Speaker 4: It's still a blood bath.

685
00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:54,279
Speaker 10: Well, I guess it raises a question of how this

686
00:35:54,400 --> 00:35:56,719
Speaker 10: is received in Ohio and in the Republican base, to

687
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,440
Speaker 10: which he was probably speaking.

688
00:35:58,520 --> 00:36:00,759
Speaker 4: Yeah, this's a big reason why he was there. It

689
00:36:00,800 --> 00:36:02,160
Speaker 4: is primary day tomorrow.

690
00:36:02,040 --> 00:36:04,160
Speaker 10: It is, and maybe it matters less if you've already

691
00:36:04,200 --> 00:36:07,320
Speaker 10: locked up the Republican nomination, but there are down ballot

692
00:36:07,360 --> 00:36:09,840
Speaker 10: implications in Ohio at stake in the primary tomorrow, and

693
00:36:09,840 --> 00:36:11,760
Speaker 10: that is where we want to begin now with Spencer Kimball.

694
00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 10: He is the executive director of the Emerson College Polling

695
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 10: Center who just this hour has fresh data out on

696
00:36:18,280 --> 00:36:21,680
Speaker 10: that Republican primary. Came out at one pm Eastern time.

697
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 10: And Spencer, great to have you with us as this

698
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 10: is breaking here. So your final poll of the Republican primary,

699
00:36:27,640 --> 00:36:31,160
Speaker 10: this is for the Senate race, in particular, thirty eight

700
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:34,840
Speaker 10: percent of voters likely to support Bernie Moreno, who wasn't leading.

701
00:36:34,840 --> 00:36:37,399
Speaker 10: And you're polling just five days ago. This has been

702
00:36:37,640 --> 00:36:40,680
Speaker 10: a pretty volatile primary race thus far. Tell us more

703
00:36:40,680 --> 00:36:43,720
Speaker 10: about what you're finding now that we're just one day out.

704
00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 12: Well, Kayley, I think you got it right in that

705
00:36:46,160 --> 00:36:49,080
Speaker 12: this race has really jumped around. We had Frank LeRose,

706
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:52,360
Speaker 12: the Secretary of State, leading this race back in November,

707
00:36:52,719 --> 00:36:54,960
Speaker 12: and then Matt Dolan had the lead as you mentioned

708
00:36:55,000 --> 00:36:58,480
Speaker 12: last week. But Trump's rally this weekend seems to have

709
00:36:58,520 --> 00:37:01,520
Speaker 12: given Moreno a bit of a bump our polling, coming

710
00:37:01,560 --> 00:37:03,840
Speaker 12: into today with a ten point lead, now.

711
00:37:04,920 --> 00:37:08,880
Speaker 4: A ten point lead, So to Kayley's point, just a

712
00:37:08,880 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 4: week ago, this entire race was reverse of what we

713
00:37:13,360 --> 00:37:16,080
Speaker 4: have now. So Moreno at thirty eight percent, Dolan at

714
00:37:16,080 --> 00:37:19,600
Speaker 4: twenty nine, Larrose at twelve. This is all about Trump.

715
00:37:19,440 --> 00:37:22,799
Speaker 12: Then, Yeah, this race has been interesting. If you look

716
00:37:22,800 --> 00:37:25,440
Speaker 12: at that number of undecided voters. When we started off,

717
00:37:25,480 --> 00:37:28,399
Speaker 12: it was at fifty percent, and even this weekend when

718
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,919
Speaker 12: we're polling, it was at twenty percent. But we didn't

719
00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,240
Speaker 12: let those undecided voters off the hook in our polling.

720
00:37:33,320 --> 00:37:36,359
Speaker 12: We pushed them into who would they actually choose, and

721
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:38,520
Speaker 12: that's where we see a bump for Dolan. So that

722
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 12: nine point ten point gap tightens to four to five

723
00:37:42,600 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 12: points when we pushed these undecided voters at twenty percent,

724
00:37:46,400 --> 00:37:49,399
Speaker 12: suggesting that this race could tighten tomorrow on election Day.

725
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:55,280
Speaker 10: So it'll be a very interesting day. Indeed, are voters

726
00:37:55,320 --> 00:37:59,040
Speaker 10: discriminating issue wise between the different individuals here, are are

727
00:37:59,280 --> 00:38:02,520
Speaker 10: voters who are likely to vote for Moreno prioritizing something

728
00:38:02,560 --> 00:38:03,880
Speaker 10: over over the others.

729
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 12: Yeah, that's the immigration policy issues and economy. Those two

730
00:38:10,239 --> 00:38:13,640
Speaker 12: break for Moreno. He's leading those voters. If you got

731
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:17,080
Speaker 12: into topics like education or healthcare, well then Dolan is

732
00:38:17,120 --> 00:38:19,840
Speaker 12: actually leading with like seventy percent. But the problem for

733
00:38:19,920 --> 00:38:22,479
Speaker 12: Dolan is those issues are only top issues for about

734
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:26,680
Speaker 12: four or five percent of Republican primary voters. Immigration, in

735
00:38:26,719 --> 00:38:30,279
Speaker 12: the economy, they're combined for about seventy five percent as

736
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,040
Speaker 12: the most important issue. So that gives Moreno a good

737
00:38:33,120 --> 00:38:35,240
Speaker 12: position at least on those two issues.

738
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:40,000
Speaker 4: We're talking with Spencer Kimball from Emerson College Polling. Of course,

739
00:38:40,120 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 4: this is the primary to find out who's going to

740
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:47,240
Speaker 4: run against Senator Schared Brown, a very important seat for Democrats, Spencer,

741
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,960
Speaker 4: and fascinating. In your most recent poll you found out

742
00:38:51,000 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 4: that he's actually doing pretty well strangely with Trump supporters.

743
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:57,560
Speaker 4: Eight percent of Trump voters planned to split their ticket

744
00:38:57,640 --> 00:39:00,960
Speaker 4: and vote for Brown. So what kind of a situation

745
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:02,840
Speaker 4: is he in? This was said to be the political

746
00:39:02,840 --> 00:39:03,720
Speaker 4: fight of his life.

747
00:39:04,800 --> 00:39:07,840
Speaker 12: Well, he's certainly in a dogfight, depends on who gets

748
00:39:07,840 --> 00:39:11,160
Speaker 12: the nomination. In our polling, he seems to run better

749
00:39:11,200 --> 00:39:13,800
Speaker 12: against Moreno at this point than he does against Dolan

750
00:39:13,920 --> 00:39:16,720
Speaker 12: in a general election. But what we're seeing in Ohio

751
00:39:16,840 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 12: is very similar to what we're seeing in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Pennsylvania,

752
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 12: where Trump is leading against Biden. And yet all of

753
00:39:24,560 --> 00:39:29,200
Speaker 12: these Democratic Senate candidates are leading their Republican challengers by

754
00:39:29,200 --> 00:39:31,799
Speaker 12: two to three points, even in a state like Montana

755
00:39:31,880 --> 00:39:34,920
Speaker 12: where Trump is up by fifteen sixteen points. So we'll

756
00:39:34,920 --> 00:39:38,759
Speaker 12: see if that ticket splitting survives the fall. But that's

757
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:40,000
Speaker 12: what we're seeing at this time.

758
00:39:40,960 --> 00:39:43,520
Speaker 10: Well, and Spencer, That's what's so interesting is because here

759
00:39:43,520 --> 00:39:46,480
Speaker 10: in Washington, the entire entire conversation about the balance of

760
00:39:46,520 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 10: the Senate seems to be centered on Ohio and Montana.

761
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,880
Speaker 10: Tester and Brown are seen as the most vulnerable Democrats.

762
00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 10: Is your polling suggesting that maybe they aren't actually as

763
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,760
Speaker 10: vulnerable as previously thought.

764
00:39:58,760 --> 00:40:01,839
Speaker 12: Well, they're vulnerable, don't get me wrong, but they're not

765
00:40:02,120 --> 00:40:04,200
Speaker 12: you know, they're not losing like Joe Manchin who dropped

766
00:40:04,200 --> 00:40:06,120
Speaker 12: out of the race in West Virginia because he was

767
00:40:06,160 --> 00:40:09,359
Speaker 12: trailing in the polls by thirteen points. They're not doing

768
00:40:09,360 --> 00:40:11,680
Speaker 12: as well as Josh Holly out of Missouri, who's leading

769
00:40:11,719 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 12: by ten. But there's a little struggle for Ted Cruz

770
00:40:14,160 --> 00:40:16,680
Speaker 12: down in Texas. The bigger concern I would have is

771
00:40:16,680 --> 00:40:20,399
Speaker 12: out in Arizona, which is an open seat, and those

772
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 12: are tough. Same thing in Michigan. You don't want to

773
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:25,200
Speaker 12: just dismiss open seats that the Democrats are going to

774
00:40:25,280 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 12: keep those. But if you get that ticket split, or

775
00:40:29,040 --> 00:40:31,200
Speaker 12: if there's a momentum towards Biden at the end of

776
00:40:31,239 --> 00:40:34,920
Speaker 12: the day, we could see the Democrats maybe holding on

777
00:40:35,000 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 12: to the Senate, but obviously losing West Virginia puts it

778
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,360
Speaker 12: generally at fifty to fifty, So it'll come down to

779
00:40:41,400 --> 00:40:45,399
Speaker 12: the presidential election if those other seats hold well.

780
00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 4: I see as you look ahead to Pennsylvania, you've got

781
00:40:47,719 --> 00:40:51,560
Speaker 4: Casey over McCormick in the Senate race there forty five

782
00:40:51,600 --> 00:40:57,279
Speaker 4: percent to forty one percent, which is fascinating here. I

783
00:40:57,320 --> 00:40:59,279
Speaker 4: don't know when we consider some of the numbers you

784
00:40:59,320 --> 00:41:02,000
Speaker 4: have on Joe o'biden and Donald Trump. If we can

785
00:41:02,040 --> 00:41:04,520
Speaker 4: just touch the hypothetical for a moment here as well, Spencer.

786
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,640
Speaker 4: In a state like Pennsylvania, Donald Trump forty seven, Joe

787
00:41:08,680 --> 00:41:12,040
Speaker 4: Biden forty three, that's supposed to be home turf for

788
00:41:12,200 --> 00:41:16,520
Speaker 4: Joe Biden. That's that's a racing.

789
00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,040
Speaker 12: Site that happens to kind of explain what we're seeing

790
00:41:19,040 --> 00:41:22,120
Speaker 12: in Pennsylvania. We're seeing it across the country is eighteen

791
00:41:22,160 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 12: to twenty nine year olds are voting more like two

792
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:27,759
Speaker 12: thousand or two thousand and four when John Carrey or

793
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 12: Al Gore is the nominee and not like when Barack

794
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:34,680
Speaker 12: Obama was the candidate. When Obama is the candidate, the

795
00:41:34,719 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 12: youth vote breaks for the Democrats two to one, and

796
00:41:37,400 --> 00:41:39,360
Speaker 12: they were able to carry that in twenty sixteen with

797
00:41:39,400 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 12: Clinton and to the same extent with Biden in twenty twenty.

798
00:41:42,880 --> 00:41:45,359
Speaker 12: What the polling this year is showing is that that

799
00:41:45,400 --> 00:41:47,920
Speaker 12: youth vote is no longer breaking two to one. It

800
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,279
Speaker 12: looks maybe by a ten point lead. And that's what

801
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,759
Speaker 12: Carrie won the youth vote by in two thousand and four,

802
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:55,759
Speaker 12: and in some polls it's even it's split. And that's

803
00:41:55,800 --> 00:41:58,680
Speaker 12: what Bush and Gore looked like in two thousand. So

804
00:41:58,800 --> 00:42:02,600
Speaker 12: this realignment of political ideology, particularly with the youth vote

805
00:42:03,040 --> 00:42:06,080
Speaker 12: is something that the Democrats are clearly concerned about.

806
00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:10,320
Speaker 10: There's also just the question of the undecided voter Spencer.

807
00:42:10,360 --> 00:42:12,920
Speaker 10: In that poll that Joe was referencing in Pennsylvania, about

808
00:42:12,960 --> 00:42:16,080
Speaker 10: ten percent of voterstad they were still undecided in the

809
00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:18,920
Speaker 10: presidential contest. Do you actually believe that? And is it

810
00:42:18,960 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 10: going to be a matter of undecided voters actually choosing

811
00:42:21,480 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 10: a candidate or whether undecided voters choose.

812
00:42:24,080 --> 00:42:29,040
Speaker 12: To vote's that's exactly it. Who comes out in this election?

813
00:42:29,320 --> 00:42:31,840
Speaker 12: Remember in twenty twenty we had a record turnout. It

814
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:34,440
Speaker 12: was during COVID We had over one hundred and fifty

815
00:42:34,440 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 12: five million people vote, fifteen million more than in twenty sixteen.

816
00:42:38,560 --> 00:42:40,480
Speaker 12: Is that fifteen million going to come out again or

817
00:42:40,520 --> 00:42:43,040
Speaker 12: did they stay home? And where do they not break?

818
00:42:43,680 --> 00:42:45,680
Speaker 12: And that's something that both parties are going to be

819
00:42:45,680 --> 00:42:48,680
Speaker 12: working on. It's a state by state election here, but

820
00:42:48,760 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 12: that's something that we're looking at too. As far as

821
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,279
Speaker 12: the enthusiasm gap that we have, and what's interesting is

822
00:42:54,280 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 12: that while Biden might lack enthusiasm on the top of

823
00:42:57,400 --> 00:43:01,200
Speaker 12: the ticket, these other Democratic candidates like shared Brown, as

824
00:43:01,200 --> 00:43:04,239
Speaker 12: you mentioned, has more enthusiasm. So it's almost as if

825
00:43:04,280 --> 00:43:06,839
Speaker 12: these down ballots might be able to carry Biden over

826
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:08,800
Speaker 12: the finish line in some of these states.

827
00:43:08,880 --> 00:43:13,080
Speaker 4: Wow, it's got reverse coattails coming here, Spencer Kimball. It's

828
00:43:13,120 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 4: good to see it, Spencer. Great to catch up and

829
00:43:14,920 --> 00:43:17,600
Speaker 4: thanks for sharing these brand new numbers with us. Here

830
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:21,239
Speaker 4: for Ohio Emerson College Polling Center executive director. It's good

831
00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 4: to know important people. Kayley, we got the first look

832
00:43:24,000 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 4: at this stuff. That's fascinating what we could learn tomorrow.

833
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,400
Speaker 10: Absolutely, it's going to be an exciting primary race, at

834
00:43:29,480 --> 00:43:31,320
Speaker 10: least down the ballot in Ohio.

835
00:43:31,440 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 4: See about itself, not so much on the top. Sure enough.

836
00:43:37,400 --> 00:43:40,759
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast kens

837
00:43:40,880 --> 00:43:43,799
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple CarPlay and

838
00:43:43,800 --> 00:43:44,480
Speaker 1: then roun.

839
00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,000
Speaker 3: Oo with the Bloomberg Business App.

840
00:43:46,080 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 2: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

841
00:43:48,920 --> 00:43:53,200
Speaker 2: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

842
00:43:53,000 --> 00:43:57,960
Speaker 4: Thirty Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee lines in Washington, d C.

843
00:43:58,120 --> 00:44:01,239
Speaker 4: This is Balance of Power on Bloomberg's and radio, and

844
00:44:01,280 --> 00:44:04,040
Speaker 4: we're glad you're with us. As Joe Biden today gets

845
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 4: on the phone with Benjamin Netanyaho for the first time

846
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:09,720
Speaker 4: in a month. We've talked a bit about the strained

847
00:44:09,760 --> 00:44:13,600
Speaker 4: relations between the White House and Tel Aviv, of course

848
00:44:13,719 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 4: over policy in Gaza with a looming invasion, if I

849
00:44:18,280 --> 00:44:20,719
Speaker 4: can use that term of rafa, and it's something that

850
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,880
Speaker 4: they continue to talk about coming off of Chuck Schumer's

851
00:44:23,920 --> 00:44:27,239
Speaker 4: address last week in which he called for new elections

852
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:30,920
Speaker 4: in Israel. Benjamin Netanya, who reacting to what the majority

853
00:44:30,920 --> 00:44:33,279
Speaker 4: the leader had to say here, he is what.

854
00:44:33,239 --> 00:44:38,399
Speaker 13: He said is totally inappropriate. It's inappropriate for to go

855
00:44:38,440 --> 00:44:41,160
Speaker 13: to a sister democracy and try to replace the elected

856
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 13: leadership there. That's something that Israel, Israeli public does on

857
00:44:44,560 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 13: its own, and we're not a Banana republic.

858
00:44:49,160 --> 00:44:51,080
Speaker 10: And we want to turn out to an expert in

859
00:44:51,120 --> 00:44:53,440
Speaker 10: the Middle East joining us now as Hagar Shamali. She's

860
00:44:53,520 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 10: former director for Syria and Lebanon at the National Security Council.

861
00:44:56,719 --> 00:44:59,360
Speaker 10: She's now founder and CEO at Greenwich Media Strategies. Hagar

862
00:44:59,360 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 10: are always great to have you here on Bloomberg TV and Radio.

863
00:45:03,040 --> 00:45:05,359
Speaker 10: We have gotten a very brief statement from the White

864
00:45:05,400 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 10: House about the call that took place between Biden and

865
00:45:07,520 --> 00:45:10,280
Speaker 10: Prime Minister Netanyahu today They said that discuss the latest

866
00:45:10,280 --> 00:45:13,680
Speaker 10: developments in Israel and Gaza, including the situation in Rafa

867
00:45:13,680 --> 00:45:17,279
Speaker 10: and efforts to serge humanitarian assistance to Gaza. They say

868
00:45:17,280 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 10: a readout is forthcoming. We have not gotten that readout yet.

869
00:45:20,239 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 10: But what do you hope was communicated by President Biden

870
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:26,800
Speaker 10: to Netanyahu on this call, And how do you expect that, Frankly,

871
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,439
Speaker 10: any communication from the US president right now is being

872
00:45:29,520 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 10: received on the other end.

873
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:34,240
Speaker 14: Well, there are two sides to this at the moment.

874
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,799
Speaker 14: So on one hand, what President Biden likely did was

875
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:38,800
Speaker 14: he had to do a little bit of damage control

876
00:45:38,840 --> 00:45:44,200
Speaker 14: following Schumer's statement, in particular because for him to go,

877
00:45:44,280 --> 00:45:47,040
Speaker 14: for sure, to go out and say toward a democracy,

878
00:45:47,040 --> 00:45:48,760
Speaker 14: toward a country that we are that is an ally

879
00:45:48,800 --> 00:45:51,919
Speaker 14: of the United States, that new elections are needed. I'm

880
00:45:51,920 --> 00:45:55,480
Speaker 14: not one to repeat or pirate Netanyahu's talking points, but

881
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 14: that is not the norm for the United States in

882
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:02,399
Speaker 14: foreign policy dealing with a democratic government and a democratic friend.

883
00:46:02,440 --> 00:46:05,879
Speaker 14: In particular, we do say occasionally that elections are needed

884
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,840
Speaker 14: in countries, but that's where we've seen there to be

885
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,720
Speaker 14: not free and fair elections, or that there's a dictator

886
00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:16,280
Speaker 14: and authoritarian who's not respecting democracy or elections. Are that kind?

887
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,920
Speaker 14: So to say in this context is is not the

888
00:46:19,960 --> 00:46:22,480
Speaker 14: way you work with a country like Israel. It's certainly

889
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:24,840
Speaker 14: not how you're going to get the Israeli government to

890
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,279
Speaker 14: cooperate with you, which is Biden's number one goal. So

891
00:46:27,360 --> 00:46:29,360
Speaker 14: on one hand you probably had to do some damage control,

892
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,359
Speaker 14: and then the other he had to press really hard

893
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:35,400
Speaker 14: and say, listen, Bibi, you're putting me between a rock

894
00:46:35,440 --> 00:46:37,239
Speaker 14: and a hard place. I want to help you. I've

895
00:46:37,239 --> 00:46:40,000
Speaker 14: been supporting you, We've been very clear about that. But

896
00:46:40,400 --> 00:46:42,799
Speaker 14: your behavior is going to cause a problem for me

897
00:46:42,840 --> 00:46:45,799
Speaker 14: on Capitol Hill. And that problem could be very real.

898
00:46:45,840 --> 00:46:49,799
Speaker 14: It could yield, It could result in a halting of

899
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:53,400
Speaker 14: aid or less aid or conditional aid. And so therefore

900
00:46:53,400 --> 00:46:55,239
Speaker 14: you got to work with me, and we have to

901
00:46:55,320 --> 00:46:57,279
Speaker 14: work on what's happening in Rafa. This is how we

902
00:46:57,360 --> 00:46:59,560
Speaker 14: see what's going to happen in Rafa if you invade

903
00:46:59,640 --> 00:47:01,560
Speaker 14: right now, and it would be catastrophic. As we know,

904
00:47:01,600 --> 00:47:03,600
Speaker 14: we've talked about it together, about the fact that you

905
00:47:03,600 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 14: have about one point three one point four million gods

906
00:47:06,120 --> 00:47:09,760
Speaker 14: and refugees who've sought refuge there and without a clear plan.

907
00:47:09,840 --> 00:47:12,080
Speaker 14: It's hard for the US, for US as your friend,

908
00:47:12,080 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 14: to back you up. So that's probably two sides of

909
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:17,839
Speaker 14: the conversation he had in beb This was.

910
00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:21,320
Speaker 4: In the air yesterday at the White House Higuard during

911
00:47:21,440 --> 00:47:25,320
Speaker 4: the Saint Patrick's Day celebration. The Prime Minister of Ireland

912
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:28,960
Speaker 4: spoke about this publicly while he was with the President.

913
00:47:29,040 --> 00:47:32,120
Speaker 4: Speaking with reporters, he said, quote, the Irish people have

914
00:47:32,200 --> 00:47:35,720
Speaker 4: such empathy for the Palestinian people unquote, And the President

915
00:47:35,760 --> 00:47:37,919
Speaker 4: said that t Shock and I agree about the urgent

916
00:47:38,000 --> 00:47:40,840
Speaker 4: need to increase humanitarian aid in Gaza and get the

917
00:47:40,880 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 4: cease fire deal? Is that what led to this phone

918
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:46,840
Speaker 4: call this morning when Benjamin nettya who is hearing about

919
00:47:46,840 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 4: conversations like these that the President is having openly.

920
00:47:51,840 --> 00:47:53,960
Speaker 14: Well, from what I understand from my friends in Washington,

921
00:47:54,040 --> 00:47:58,000
Speaker 14: this is the situation in Rafa and the humanitarian situation

922
00:47:58,200 --> 00:48:01,799
Speaker 14: in general in Gaza is top of mind for the

923
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,440
Speaker 14: Bide administration. This is something that they're actively working on

924
00:48:04,440 --> 00:48:07,880
Speaker 14: on a daily basis. They have people traveling to Israel

925
00:48:08,200 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 14: regularly trying to press the Israeli government on the need

926
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 14: to open more roots, to get more humanitarian in to

927
00:48:14,400 --> 00:48:17,680
Speaker 14: inspect things faster, to open a maritime things of this kind,

928
00:48:17,960 --> 00:48:20,520
Speaker 14: and so I don't know that that itself was what

929
00:48:20,560 --> 00:48:25,000
Speaker 14: precipitated this call. I think in general you have regular communication,

930
00:48:25,040 --> 00:48:28,040
Speaker 14: but when you see the situation you have. Now you

931
00:48:28,080 --> 00:48:30,320
Speaker 14: have the UN saying that people are in danger of

932
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:34,959
Speaker 14: death because of famine and that it is an emergency,

933
00:48:35,440 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 14: and you've got the US air dropping aid, which we

934
00:48:38,160 --> 00:48:41,040
Speaker 14: both know is the most inefficient and expensive the way

935
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:43,560
Speaker 14: to do this, which only reflects how desperate the US

936
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:46,799
Speaker 14: government is to try and send some help in. Then

937
00:48:47,120 --> 00:48:50,560
Speaker 14: that's all of that together is likely what precipitated this.

938
00:48:52,880 --> 00:48:53,120
Speaker 3: Well.

939
00:48:53,120 --> 00:48:56,600
Speaker 10: As we think about the efforts to get aid into Goza,

940
00:48:56,680 --> 00:49:01,240
Speaker 10: there's also a question of what operations the Isle Defense

941
00:49:01,360 --> 00:49:04,439
Speaker 10: Force may still undertake in Gaza. We know that there

942
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:07,319
Speaker 10: was another move on a hospital in Gaza City in

943
00:49:07,360 --> 00:49:10,520
Speaker 10: the last several days. In Rafa, of course, remains a question,

944
00:49:10,760 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 10: as it seems that Israel and Netniahu specifically still is

945
00:49:14,120 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 10: indicating the number one priority is to take out Hamas

946
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:20,120
Speaker 10: to the extent that they can do. We have an understanding,

947
00:49:20,200 --> 00:49:24,560
Speaker 10: Hagar of just how close they are to accomplishing that goal.

948
00:49:26,440 --> 00:49:29,120
Speaker 14: It's a little difficult because the US has come out

949
00:49:29,160 --> 00:49:32,640
Speaker 14: the US officials have said that they believe that the

950
00:49:32,800 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 14: Israeli military has taken out about a third of Hamas's fighters,

951
00:49:36,760 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 14: and Israel has has said things that are a bit

952
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:42,520
Speaker 14: similar to that. Actually, maybe they maybe they flighted those

953
00:49:42,560 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 14: numbers a little bit more. But it's a little bit

954
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,960
Speaker 14: complicated because on one hand, you have the US saying that,

955
00:49:48,360 --> 00:49:50,480
Speaker 14: and I having worked in the US government, obviously I

956
00:49:50,480 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 14: have a reason to believe when the comes out with

957
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:55,560
Speaker 14: these figures, they don't really they don't say that unless

958
00:49:55,560 --> 00:49:59,399
Speaker 14: they're pretty certain of them. But also the part that's

959
00:49:59,400 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 14: complicated the fact that you have Nittan Yahoo coming out

960
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:03,600
Speaker 14: and saying that that they're at the tail end. And

961
00:50:03,640 --> 00:50:05,200
Speaker 14: he said that, he said, we're at the very end.

962
00:50:05,280 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 14: We just need to go to Rafa and we need

963
00:50:06,920 --> 00:50:09,160
Speaker 14: to control Rafa, and then we're at the end. And

964
00:50:09,440 --> 00:50:12,279
Speaker 14: I want to be clear when he says that, what

965
00:50:12,320 --> 00:50:15,160
Speaker 14: he means is that they're at the after Rafa, after

966
00:50:15,200 --> 00:50:17,759
Speaker 14: an operation in Rafa, which would be the last the

967
00:50:17,840 --> 00:50:21,400
Speaker 14: last area city that is that is not under Israeli

968
00:50:21,400 --> 00:50:26,480
Speaker 14: military control, that operations might transition to something that's lower intensity,

969
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:29,640
Speaker 14: but that the war wouldn't The entire war wouldn't end.

970
00:50:29,640 --> 00:50:32,000
Speaker 14: The effort to undermine Hamas to go after its fighters

971
00:50:32,040 --> 00:50:34,320
Speaker 14: wouldn't end. From what I can see and have studied,

972
00:50:34,360 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 14: it's that you still have those tunnel networks are very

973
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:41,319
Speaker 14: active in supporting Hamas and keeping them alive. Apparently they're

974
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,319
Speaker 14: warfare at the moment. While they are definitely on the

975
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:47,479
Speaker 14: other end of they're losing. Hamas is losing. That's very clear.

976
00:50:47,960 --> 00:50:50,680
Speaker 14: What they've been what they've been doing now is retreating

977
00:50:50,719 --> 00:50:53,359
Speaker 14: in tunnels and they'll pop out, they'll do an attack,

978
00:50:53,400 --> 00:50:55,359
Speaker 14: and they'll retreat again. And so that is what the

979
00:50:55,360 --> 00:50:57,640
Speaker 14: Israeli government is focused on. And the way the Israeli

980
00:50:57,640 --> 00:51:02,360
Speaker 14: government sees this is they cannot they cannot just retreat

981
00:51:02,800 --> 00:51:06,399
Speaker 14: right now because if they did, then everything that has

982
00:51:06,440 --> 00:51:11,520
Speaker 14: happened thus far, without defeating Hamas's ability to launch attacks

983
00:51:11,560 --> 00:51:15,320
Speaker 14: to govern Gaza, then everything would have been for nothing.

984
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:18,400
Speaker 14: And that's how these are the military season, that's how

985
00:51:18,400 --> 00:51:21,440
Speaker 14: these are the government sees it. So while I believe

986
00:51:21,480 --> 00:51:23,640
Speaker 14: that Yahoo met when he says that the end is near,

987
00:51:24,000 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 14: what he means is that for the high intensity part

988
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:28,680
Speaker 14: after Rafa happens. But I don't want to make it

989
00:51:28,719 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 14: sound as though that wouldn't have severe humanitarian consequences, because.

990
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 4: It would, right sure, Reguard, there were reports a couple

991
00:51:36,640 --> 00:51:39,600
Speaker 4: of weeks back that Israel was beginning to flood the

992
00:51:39,640 --> 00:51:44,120
Speaker 4: tunnels beneath Gaza with seawater. Is that how this ends?

993
00:51:46,000 --> 00:51:48,200
Speaker 14: Some of them have been flooded with seawater, some of

994
00:51:48,200 --> 00:51:50,920
Speaker 14: them is The Israel government has called in Israeli engineers

995
00:51:51,200 --> 00:51:54,239
Speaker 14: to also come in and dismantle or destroy some of

996
00:51:54,280 --> 00:51:57,560
Speaker 14: these tunnels. They from what I from what I from

997
00:51:57,600 --> 00:51:59,839
Speaker 14: what they say, They say that this won't end until

998
00:51:59,840 --> 00:52:03,120
Speaker 14: they've destroyed all the tunnels. And I believe that because

999
00:52:03,160 --> 00:52:08,319
Speaker 14: they don't invade Gaza often. This is this They they

1000
00:52:08,320 --> 00:52:11,600
Speaker 14: haven't been physically in Gaza since two thousand and six,

1001
00:52:12,000 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 14: two thousand and five, where they left and and and

1002
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,840
Speaker 14: given the threat and October seven and what they faced,

1003
00:52:19,520 --> 00:52:24,080
Speaker 14: they feel that they must dismantle everything that supports Hamas,

1004
00:52:24,160 --> 00:52:26,960
Speaker 14: that props them up, that keep them living and u

1005
00:52:27,640 --> 00:52:30,160
Speaker 14: And you can tell that the US government degrees with

1006
00:52:30,160 --> 00:52:32,960
Speaker 14: that somewhat, because otherwise the US would be calling for

1007
00:52:33,040 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 14: an immediate, permanent ceasefire right now, and they're not. They're

1008
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 14: calling for a temporary one because they want to they

1009
00:52:39,360 --> 00:52:41,640
Speaker 14: want to get some hostages released. They want to gain

1010
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:44,160
Speaker 14: some time so that maybe they can lay the groundwork

1011
00:52:44,560 --> 00:52:47,800
Speaker 14: for a permanent ceasefire. But that permanent ceasefire could only

1012
00:52:47,880 --> 00:52:50,879
Speaker 14: take place if Hamas isn't governing Gaza, So they want

1013
00:52:50,880 --> 00:52:52,759
Speaker 14: to create the space for that in a way that

1014
00:52:52,880 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 14: isn't such doesn't create such humanitarian devastation and catastrophe. But

1015
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 14: that's but at the end, both sides agree on the

1016
00:53:02,160 --> 00:53:05,880
Speaker 14: need to defeat Hamas completely. It's just that the US

1017
00:53:06,040 --> 00:53:08,240
Speaker 14: would like to see it in an approach that protects

1018
00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:09,600
Speaker 14: civilians as much as possible.

1019
00:53:10,920 --> 00:53:11,080
Speaker 2: Gar.

1020
00:53:11,080 --> 00:53:13,040
Speaker 4: It's great to have you back. Thanks for the insights.

1021
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 4: Higar Shamali now at Greenwich Media Strategies, formerly National Security Council.

1022
00:53:17,080 --> 00:53:22,200
Speaker 4: Thanks for being with us, Thanks for listening to the

1023
00:53:22,239 --> 00:53:25,600
Speaker 4: Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you

1024
00:53:25,640 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 4: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts,

1025
00:53:29,520 --> 00:53:32,000
Speaker 4: and you can find us live every weekday from Washington,

1026
00:53:32,080 --> 00:53:35,120
Speaker 4: DC at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.