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Speaker 1: All right, here we go fifteen Cuny tenty five, thirty

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Speaker 1: thirty five, Hony Coty five fifty.

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Speaker 2: And the kick as black the college football World Stunners,

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Speaker 2: Oh my goodness, he's stumbled and football the lateral turn

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Speaker 2: a corner on the ub Do you believe that I

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Speaker 2: came him up the field the night? It's not the

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Speaker 2: sizes on the dog in the fight, it's the size

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Speaker 2: of the fight in the dog.

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Speaker 1: What's up the general nation? Welcome to the Big Bets

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Speaker 1: on Campus podcast. This is your week eleven college football

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Speaker 1: betting preview. I'm Stucky in with me as always as

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Speaker 1: Colin Wilson. We have a ship time to get to.

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Speaker 2: I should start off by saying, like, it was really

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Speaker 2: nice for the Rage Award for the committee to send

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Speaker 2: me an email this week and list all the punters

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Speaker 2: like that are on the list. And I almost wanted

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Speaker 2: to respond back and say, why is this not the

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Speaker 2: Matta Raizo Award? I mean literally, I think it needs

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Speaker 2: to be renamed. We'll get to get to that game later,

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Speaker 2: but like, I love award season because you and I

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Speaker 2: are now voters and a lot of these things, and

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Speaker 2: when when the Ray Guy email comes in? I'm just

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Speaker 2: thinking to myself, there's already the winner has already been

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Speaker 2: determined there. We might as well not have any more punts.

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Speaker 1: Yep. I wrote that game up, but I went into

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Speaker 1: about half the write up is about the punts. But

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Speaker 1: we'll get to that. I just did much volitmikof voting.

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Speaker 1: By the way I get it, I to I give

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Speaker 1: some love to Jared Stearns, by the way, for Zappy.

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Speaker 3: Hour Faily Zappy.

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Speaker 1: He was one of my ten semi finalists. He has

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Speaker 1: one hundred and four catches on the year. By the way, Yeah,

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Speaker 1: let's there's no reason to chit chat anymore. We have

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Speaker 1: a lot of games to get to. I think we're

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Speaker 1: going to get to like twenty five games. So let's

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Speaker 1: get right in it, and let's start where we always start,

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Speaker 1: with look ahead or look.

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Speaker 4: Away hangovers, sleepers and the dreaded sandwich spot. Is it

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Speaker 4: time to look ahead or look away?

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Speaker 2: All right?

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Speaker 1: So this is for those that are new here, welcome,

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Speaker 1: But this is where we look at next week's card,

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Speaker 1: sometimes the week before, and try to determine, okay, is

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Speaker 1: the team gonna be looking ahead situations about these our

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Speaker 1: college kids. Maybe a team will take its foot off

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Speaker 1: the gas a little sooner, not so much, go a

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Speaker 1: little vanilla. So we'll see if there's any good situational

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Speaker 1: spots here. Got three on the card for this week.

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Speaker 1: The first Utah at Arizona. By the way, Utah six

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Speaker 1: and three. That over think I have over eight and

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Speaker 1: a half wins? Is that the window?

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Speaker 2: Yeah?

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Speaker 1: Eight and a half. Yeah, it's gonna come down to

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Speaker 1: that Oregon game at home next week. Utah minus twenty

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Speaker 1: four and a half at Arizona total fifty four. Reason

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Speaker 1: this is on the lest Utah Playgon next week. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: a big game in this game is not going to

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Speaker 1: low le Arizona, who's coming off a win. They finally

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Speaker 1: got a win. It took them playing a roster completely

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Speaker 1: crushed by COVID that ended up causing CAW to have

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Speaker 1: to cancel their game this weekend. So does Utah show

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Speaker 1: up here is the question? When I look at this game.

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Speaker 1: The Utah offense is first in the country in ePaper rush,

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Speaker 1: but the Arizona d's actually been decent against the run.

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Speaker 1: It's the one thing that they can they can do

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Speaker 1: and Arizona does play a little fast, but their offense

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Speaker 1: is dreadful. I mean they're one hundred and tenth at

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Speaker 1: EPA per play. They're now at their third string quarterbacks,

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Speaker 1: no touchdown throws five and a half yardsbur attempted three games.

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Speaker 1: So the way I look at this game, I cannot

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Speaker 1: see Arizona's offense doing much against Utah. You can hit

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Speaker 1: some explosive runs against not what Arizona can't do that.

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Speaker 1: I can't really see a path for Arizona putting up

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Speaker 1: many points here. Utah should get theirs and then I

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Speaker 1: think they're going to sit on it and they're gonna

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Speaker 1: run it a lot. They're not gonna show much. Let's

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Speaker 1: get out of here healthy. So I like this under

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Speaker 1: fifty four. I know Arizona's d is not good, but

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Speaker 1: I think that this game script and situation sets up

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Speaker 1: for an under maybe like a thirty eight ten ish

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Speaker 1: Utah win anything here, get.

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Speaker 2: To Tucson, get the win, get out. I think that's

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Speaker 2: the game plan. I think you're exactly right. The play

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Speaker 2: that I that I was gonna make is it kind

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Speaker 2: of follows that script. I don't think there's a value

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Speaker 2: from a numbers perspective, you know, the more I make

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Speaker 2: this nineteen so it's a little inflated, so Utah wants

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Speaker 2: to pass through town. They want to score enough to win.

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Speaker 2: That means they'll probably want to get a three possession

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Speaker 2: lead before they sit on the ball. The Wildcats are

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Speaker 2: the dead are dead last in the nation and turnover margin.

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Speaker 2: I think that's the problem with backing Arizona here. You say, well,

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Speaker 2: the spread's inflated. Yeah, but it's also a Wildcats team

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Speaker 2: that is worse in the nation and turnover margin. So

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Speaker 2: you know they're still dealing with injuries to multiple starters.

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Speaker 2: I mean, their their whole into higher injury list is

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Speaker 2: full of questionables. Utah I had four hundred and forty

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Speaker 2: one yards on the ground against the Stanford defense and

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Speaker 2: Arizona's seventy fifth in line yards, So you know, this

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Speaker 2: could be a big night for Cam Rising. He just

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Speaker 2: catches fire and he looks like a guy that could

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Speaker 2: contend for the Heisman. But then they have gaps of

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Speaker 2: possessions where they don't score at all. This is a

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Speaker 2: game where they get it in and they get out.

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Speaker 2: So Utah right now is listed at minus fourteen for

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Speaker 2: the first half. I think full game under is a

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Speaker 2: good play, but I think betting on Utah to get

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Speaker 2: it done in the first half and then sitting everybody's

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Speaker 2: a better play. So I'll be Utah minus fourteen the

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Speaker 2: first half. Did you say ute?

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Speaker 1: Yeahte yeah? Another thing? Give Mine's like you have Oregon

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Speaker 1: on deck, so you know why it shows too much?

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Speaker 1: Why risk injury? And then why wear down? It's gone

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Speaker 1: ninety degrees in Tucson on Saturday, so you know there's

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Speaker 1: no reason to go all out with your starters on

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Speaker 1: any additional plays that you don't need to play. Second

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Speaker 1: spot we have here. It's Southern Miss at UTSA reason

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Speaker 1: this is on here. Utsa has UAB on deck and

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Speaker 1: that game could determine the division depending on if UAB wins.

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Speaker 1: At Marshall. We are going from the Arizona offense to

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Speaker 1: the Southern Miss offense. The Southern Miss offense makes the

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Speaker 1: Arizona offense look like the greatest show on turf. I mean,

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Speaker 1: this is an offense that is the worst in the country.

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Speaker 1: It's dead last and EPA per play, dead last in

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Speaker 1: yards per play three point three yards per play? Is

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Speaker 1: that good? They don't turn it. They're down to a

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Speaker 1: walk on quarterback. At least they don't turn it over.

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Speaker 1: They don't do anything. They can't do anything well on offense. UTSA,

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Speaker 1: by the way, thirty three and a half point favored

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Speaker 1: here over Under fifty four and a half. I kind

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Speaker 1: of have the same sentiment, Okay, UTSA, do they just

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Speaker 1: want to in the second half. We're gonna sit on it,

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Speaker 1: We're gonna run it. The Southern miss just like Arizona.

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Speaker 1: The one thing that they can do is defend the run.

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Speaker 1: They're decent in that department. They stink everywhere else. So

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Speaker 1: you know, the UTSA d has been great, thirty across

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Speaker 1: the board and everything that you want. So I think

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Speaker 1: you get a lot of McCormick foot off the gas late,

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Speaker 1: same deal. I have the same handicap as that as

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Speaker 1: the Utah game. I like this full game under. I

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Speaker 1: think it's around the same number two fifty four. So

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Speaker 1: I think it does come into play with UTSA saying

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Speaker 1: all right, we got a big lead, let's take our

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Speaker 1: foot off the gas. And the Southern mis offense, I

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Speaker 1: mean they're incapable of scoring points. You're talking about outputs

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Speaker 1: of Yeah. The last four weeks thirteen against UTEP, zero

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Speaker 1: against UAB ten against Middle Tennessee fourteen against North Texas.

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Speaker 1: I mean that's bad. And against North Texas defense probably

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Speaker 1: they are two hundred and twenty total yards four point

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Speaker 1: four yards per play. So yeah, it's scary because you

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Speaker 1: know you're maybe Utsa puts up a fifty burger, you know,

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Speaker 1: similar to either Toledo under. You know, something like that

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Speaker 1: could happen. But I show some small value, and I

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Speaker 1: think the decide here is I should say the total

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Speaker 1: here is the under. I'll be playing a small anything here.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm not going to play an under here on

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Speaker 2: this game, and I'm gonna take the same approach I

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Speaker 2: took with Air at the Arizona with the Utah game,

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Speaker 2: And really I did some digging because I wanted to.

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Speaker 2: I thought the under would be a good play too.

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Speaker 2: But then I did some digging on both sides with

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Speaker 2: both teams, and I said, this is just bad. This

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Speaker 2: is a really bad situation. So not only is Southern

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Speaker 2: Miss dead last and a lot of offensive categories. I

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Speaker 2: won't bore you with stats. Instead, I will tell you

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Speaker 2: what Will Hall said at a presser this week. He

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Speaker 2: said that the roster is so thin that Monday and

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Speaker 2: Tuesday of this week they moved guys around from position

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Speaker 2: to position just to create a depth chart. So they

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Speaker 2: have a too deep This is just to get them

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Speaker 2: through the end of the season. We're talking linebackers moving

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Speaker 2: to running back. We're talking offensive players moving to linebacker.

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Speaker 2: They don't even have enough players healthy to fill it

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Speaker 2: too deep with scholarship players. And Will Hall said that

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Speaker 2: there are people playing positions for the first time ever

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Speaker 2: in this game. If you're keeping count, Southern Missus had

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Speaker 2: five different quarterbacks start, three different centers. All right. So

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Speaker 2: as much as this number is outrageous because it should

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Speaker 2: be twenty four and a half on UTSA, but it's

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Speaker 2: thirty three. And as much as the I project this

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Speaker 2: is at fifty one and it's at fifty four, the

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Speaker 2: fifty burger thing is in effect is when I flip

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Speaker 2: over to the UTSA side, it's an orange out, right,

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Speaker 2: And so what that means is they're asking everybody to

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Speaker 2: wear orange. Let's all get together, we want a huge crowd.

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Speaker 2: And you think, well, okay, well this is an orange out.

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Speaker 2: They're trying to generate some interest for a home game.

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Speaker 2: But then there's this whole set the expectation thing going on,

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Speaker 2: and I'm not going to get into offield politics or anything.

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Speaker 2: But there's a lady named Brenda Tracy who is the

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Speaker 2: founder of the Set the Expectation. She's a victim of

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Speaker 2: sexual abuse. UTSA was the first university in the nation

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Speaker 2: to implement the Tracy Rule, and they are celebrating that

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Speaker 2: at the what they're calling the Set the Expectation Game

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Speaker 2: and having an orange out. So when Stuck says there

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Speaker 2: might be a fifty burger, I think there might. I

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Speaker 2: think there really will be a fifty burger. I don't

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Speaker 2: think Jeff Trailer still feels like he's been acknowledged by

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Speaker 2: the College Football Playoff even though they're in there now.

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Speaker 2: By the way, succession best line of the weekend til

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Speaker 2: Dad Meet Meet. I can't wait to be tweeting that

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Speaker 2: out during the game this week. But I went UTSA

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Speaker 2: first half minus twenty. That is a large number. I mean,

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Speaker 2: if I project the game at twenty four, taking UTSA

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Speaker 2: first half minus twenty is large. But when you consider

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Speaker 2: the fact that Will Hall's talking like we don't even

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Speaker 2: have enough players to fill it too deep. We have

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Speaker 2: people starting this week that have never played the position before.

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Speaker 2: I don't know what number is big enough to keep

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Speaker 2: me off of a first.

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Speaker 1: Half that makes them a good point. So I haven't

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Speaker 1: played it yet, so maybe I'll take a second glance.

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Speaker 1: And that's why we do this podcast to give differing opinions.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I did read that and I was thinking

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Speaker 1: my thought process there and maybe Southern Miss team total

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Speaker 1: under is the way to go.

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Speaker 2: And let me say that last week's score was a

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Speaker 2: little misleading because North Texas Austin Ani the quarterback through

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Speaker 2: a pick six early. I mean the Southern Miss got

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Speaker 2: up fourteen zero, but they were given seven points right away,

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Speaker 2: so it was a little misleading. And you know what

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Speaker 2: they had.

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Speaker 1: They did nothing. They had like four yards to play

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Speaker 1: and they.

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Speaker 2: Haven't scored twenty points since Grambling in week two. So yeah,

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Speaker 2: Southern Miss team total unders are good. I mean new

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Speaker 2: players and new positions.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, but it's gonna be if the spread is thirty

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Speaker 1: four and the total is fifty four, then you're talking

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Speaker 1: forty four to ten. Yeah, that's not a lot. That's

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Speaker 1: so a team total of ten ten and a half.

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Speaker 1: Maybe if we can get ten and a half. But

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Speaker 1: my thinking was up with all with all those personalities

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Speaker 1: that Southern is going to play Loto even slower just

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Speaker 1: because they're like, we're so under we're so under man.

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Speaker 1: But all right, let's move on to the last look

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Speaker 1: at it, look away spot here Iowa State at Texas Tech.

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech ten and a half point home dog over

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Speaker 1: under fifty eight and a half. So here's the situation

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Speaker 1: for Iowa State. You know they've had they come into

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Speaker 1: this year, it's been a disappoint year. They're six and three.

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Speaker 1: But if you look at closer they lost a bailor

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Speaker 1: on a kick return for touchdown. They actually outplayed them.

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Speaker 1: They lost to West Virginia on maybe the worst officiated

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Speaker 1: game of the year. Some of you that watched that

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Speaker 1: would understand a couple of beads, horrific spots and calls,

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Speaker 1: and then they lost to Iowa in the game they dominated,

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Speaker 1: Like this is a team that easily could be nine

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Speaker 1: and up. But despite three losses, and luckily for anyone

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Speaker 1: that tailed me on the Big twelve futures, they're actually

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Speaker 1: in a decent spot for the Big twelve considering they

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Speaker 1: have three losses. Here's what they need to do. They

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Speaker 1: need to win out. You know, they have TCU at home.

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Speaker 1: They're at Texas Tech here. They're at Oklahoma next week.

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Speaker 1: If they win that game, the only thing that they

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Speaker 1: need to happen to get to the Big Twelve championship

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Speaker 1: is for Oklahoma to beat Baylor and Oklahoma State. That's it.

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Speaker 1: You know, I was looking back like a week I

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Speaker 1: was figured Iowa State is dead, but not the most

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Speaker 1: far fetched scenario. Does iyway stake get caught looking ahead

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Speaker 1: to that Oklahoma game? That is the question I make

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Speaker 1: this right around ten. I don't think it's betible. Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech is off a bye. By the way, it's a

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Speaker 1: pretty good spot for them, But I don't think it's

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Speaker 1: beedible because I don't know who's gonna be quarterback for

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech. So Texas Tech quarterback Donovan Smith, who came

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Speaker 1: in against Oklahoma after Henry Columbia got hurt and then

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Speaker 1: he came in, So Donovan Spence either gonna make the

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Speaker 1: freshman was either gonna make his first collegiate start, or

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Speaker 1: Tyler Shug could be back making his first starts as

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Speaker 1: the Big Twelve opener. Seven weeks ago, interim coach Stunny

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Speaker 1: Comby said it's gonna be one of those two. And

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Speaker 1: because Colombia has been dealing with a sickness and he's

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Speaker 1: been ruled out. So I don't know who's gonna play.

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Speaker 1: Because I think that this kid's getting his first start

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Speaker 1: against this Iowa State defense. It's not gonna end well.

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Speaker 1: If Shug is playing and then it's a good spot,

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Speaker 1: then he's healthy, I could see. So there's way too

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Speaker 1: much uncertainty for me. I also don't know how Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech is gonna play. They actually played super slow against

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma in Comby's first game. But this is a guy

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Speaker 1: wants to throw. He's not the coach now, right, so

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Speaker 1: they named another coach over those these two weeks has come,

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Speaker 1: he's like, Oh, we're going to play fast and throw

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Speaker 1: it a lot. I don't know, hard to project a

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Speaker 1: lot going on a lot of uncertainty. I think this

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Speaker 1: is pure stay away.

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Speaker 2: And I was on the fringe of playing Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: and a lot of the things that you said now

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Speaker 2: before beating Texas, Iowa State allowed three hundred yards in

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Speaker 2: the air to three straight opponents. Their coverage rank just

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Speaker 2: continues to fall in Texas Tech. They're not gonna be

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Speaker 2: able to stop breeze Hall. So I could see a

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Speaker 2: situation where you would want to take the over. I

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Speaker 2: could see a situation where Texas Tech is covering this.

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Speaker 2: Maybe the game lands on ten. It's a number I

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Speaker 2: power rate at eight and a half, but there has

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Speaker 2: been resistance in the market at this ten and a

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Speaker 2: half number. And you're right, Donovan Smith Kidd has looked

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Speaker 2: great against OU, but Tyler Shubb coming back. We don't

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Speaker 2: know if this is going to be the game. It

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Speaker 2: sounds like it could be, but it's gonna be one

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Speaker 2: of the two, and Shug is going to be dressed out.

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Speaker 2: I mean, they have to have some depth at the

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Speaker 2: quarterback position. And you know, Sonny Company's now under a microscope,

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Speaker 2: like you said, for a new job. I thought he

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Speaker 2: was a shoe in to get this job. I thought

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Speaker 2: he was a shoeing to get TCU. But Sonny Dykes

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Speaker 2: is probably going to get TCUs here. But Iowa State's

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Speaker 2: one hundred and ninth and passing downs explosive, and whether

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Speaker 2: it's Smith or Shove, the ability to run the ball

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Speaker 2: is what can get this cover. I'm not sold on

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Speaker 2: the ISU secondary whatsoever. Before they played a Texas team

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Speaker 2: that is just absolutely imploding right now on field, off

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Speaker 2: the field, monkey field, whatever, you want to say, Isostate's

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Speaker 2: just giving up way too many yards in the air.

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Speaker 2: So I think Texas Tech can cover here. I have

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Speaker 2: a shove money over the counter. It's the side that

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Speaker 2: I want to go. Texas Tech's offensive finishing drives needs

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Speaker 2: to be paid attention to. The Red Raiders are seventeenth

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Speaker 2: in the nation when they get past the forty yard line.

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Speaker 2: Then on the other side of the ball, Texas Tech

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Speaker 2: is almost dead last in defensive finishing drive so I

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Speaker 2: can make a case for the over. I can make

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Speaker 2: a case for Texas Tech cover.

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Speaker 1: Let's get to what most of you came here for,

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Speaker 1: and that's the Marquee game.

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Speaker 3: So the weekend, it's another fabulous weekend of college football.

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Speaker 3: Let's check out the marquee matchups. We'll all end up

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Speaker 3: bedding for week eleven.

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Speaker 1: All right, we got seven marquee games to get to seven.

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Speaker 1: Let's start off with the noon kick between Michigan and

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Speaker 1: Penn State.

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Speaker 2: Don't gamble, don't associate with gamblers. Avoid it like the plague.

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Speaker 3: Let's check in with bow Dog Jim.

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Speaker 1: This line is floating around pick all week. I think

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Speaker 1: Michigan is now a one and a half point favorite.

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Speaker 1: Over under forty eight and a half. This is a

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Speaker 1: difficult handicap for me. Well, number one, I project Michigan

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Speaker 1: as a two point favorite, as I said on our

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Speaker 1: Sunday podcast, So there's no there's gonna be no play

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Speaker 1: on the side for me. Michigan's dealing with a lot

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Speaker 1: of injuries, which is you know, a receiver, corner, tight

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Speaker 1: end McNamara, their quarterback, running back. They're basically down to

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Speaker 1: just Haskins. The question is is Michigan going to be

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Speaker 1: able to line up you know, they're instead of another

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Speaker 1: tight end, the USULL go to two ton ends, it

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Speaker 1: might just be another offensive lineman and there and are

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Speaker 1: they just are they going to be able to bully

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Speaker 1: Penn State the way that har Ball wants to play,

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Speaker 1: the way that we saw Illinois. We saw Illinois do

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Speaker 1: this to Penn State in Happy Valley on the other

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Speaker 1: side of the ball, because I don't think that Michigan's

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Speaker 1: going to get much through the air. It's also going

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Speaker 1: to be windy here. I think the Penn State secondary

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Speaker 1: can match up. They're just that the weapons are underwhelming

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Speaker 1: for Michigan's It's going to come down to their rushing

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Speaker 1: offense against Penn State. I think they're gonna be able

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Speaker 1: to move the ball some on the ground.

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Speaker 2: Yep.

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Speaker 1: The thing is with Penn State, though they locked down

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Speaker 1: in the red zone. The red zone, he's been elite.

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Speaker 1: They're holding teams a twenty nine point four percent touchdown rate.

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Speaker 1: Only Clemson and Georgia are better. The other side of

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Speaker 1: the ball, you have Penn State who can't run the

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Speaker 1: ball at all, incapable of running the ball. So Michigan

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Speaker 1: doesn't have to worry about that, and that's been one

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Speaker 1: of Michigan's weaknesses. Right we saw them get gashed by Rutgers.

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Speaker 1: We saw them get gashed by Michigan State. So now

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Speaker 1: their ends will some project both of them, their edge

371
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Speaker 1: rushers as top twenty, top twenty picks in the NFL draft.

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Speaker 1: They can come off the edge just full abandoned, coming

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Speaker 1: after quarterback. The strength of the Michigan defense is their

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Speaker 1: pass rush and their secondary. So the focus is going

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Speaker 1: to be on can you cover Dotson, who might be

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Speaker 1: the best receiver in college football right now in the slot?

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Speaker 1: I mean, what do you have two hundred and thirty

378
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Speaker 1: four yards running slants against Maryland? So Dax Hill is

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Speaker 1: going to be tasked with trying to help out there,

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Speaker 1: all eyes are gonna be on Dotson and the passing

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Speaker 1: attack for Penn State. So my first thought was, under here,

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Speaker 1: there's some wind. Penn State does play fast, and then

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Speaker 1: you know, so I started to say, Okay, Penn State

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Speaker 1: plays fast, but Michigan doesn't have to worry about the run.

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Speaker 1: And that is key because you know, you might be thinking,

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Speaker 1: all right, well, when Michigan State went off tempo caused

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Speaker 1: Michigan all kinds of problems. The only reason that that

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Speaker 1: happened is because Michigan was trying to sub in big

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Speaker 1: bodies for small bodies on passing and running downs. Right, So,

390
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Speaker 1: say Michigan State gets a first down on third down tempo,

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Speaker 1: and then Michigan was trying to get big bodies in

392
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Speaker 1: a linebacker so they could stop Kenneth Walker, right, one

393
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Speaker 1: of the best running backs, and got football pen say,

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Speaker 1: you don't worry about their running game. They're not getting

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Speaker 1: a push on the offensive line, So I don't think

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Speaker 1: that the up tempo and the subs And by the way,

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Speaker 1: it's gonna help that Michigan saw that, you know, solve

398
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Speaker 1: that up tempo and they don't have to worry about

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Speaker 1: subbing the big bodies for the small bodies at linebacker

400
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Speaker 1: and defensive line. So I think it's a good matchup

401
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:38,199
Speaker 1: for the Michigan defense given what Penn State can do. Now, obviously,

402
00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:41,840
Speaker 1: if Dotson goes nuclear, there's nothing you can do, but

403
00:19:41,880 --> 00:19:43,600
Speaker 1: I'm sure the focus is going to be on bracketing

404
00:19:43,640 --> 00:19:45,680
Speaker 1: him and doubling him and making sure that he doesn't

405
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Speaker 1: beat you. So, uh my, I think the side is right.

406
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Speaker 1: My look here from the start is the under I

407
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,240
Speaker 1: saw you put in a first half under. Yeah, both

408
00:19:55,280 --> 00:19:57,720
Speaker 1: these teams, I think you know, Michigan's gonna come out conservative.

409
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Speaker 1: The other thing I like is Michigan doesn't turn it

410
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Speaker 1: over at all and they don't really throw risky throws,

411
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Speaker 1: so I think that you'll see a feeling out process

412
00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:10,359
Speaker 1: early on. I trust Clifford not to make mistakes, so

413
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Speaker 1: I think that helps. And in regards to field position,

414
00:20:12,800 --> 00:20:14,440
Speaker 1: and you know, and if one of these teams gets

415
00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:17,280
Speaker 1: way behind and it could get dicey, so I might

416
00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,679
Speaker 1: be joining on the first half under. I'll wait for

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Speaker 1: your thoughts here.

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00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is a game that confused the hell out

419
00:20:23,760 --> 00:20:25,800
Speaker 2: of me on open because it's a number that I

420
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:30,400
Speaker 2: Project Penn State minus two point seven and woe there

421
00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:32,880
Speaker 2: we are. And then I went and checked sp plus

422
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,040
Speaker 2: Penn State minus two point five. I went and check Sagaran.

423
00:20:36,160 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 2: They have Penn State fair I. And then there's a

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00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,639
Speaker 2: couple other power ratings systems out there, some you know,

425
00:20:41,720 --> 00:20:43,919
Speaker 2: some bookmakers that I'm friends with that I trust, and

426
00:20:43,920 --> 00:20:46,400
Speaker 2: they all make it a pick, which is where it opened, right,

427
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:48,520
Speaker 2: So I'm not surprised that that was the number. But

428
00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:51,320
Speaker 2: when Michigan took heavy money, I think Tuesday morning it

429
00:20:51,920 --> 00:20:53,800
Speaker 2: got blasted up to one and a half. There was

430
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Speaker 2: some buyback that wanted some sharp shops, but listen, one

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Speaker 2: and a half is out there, and that was real

432
00:20:59,160 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 2: sharp money that hit that. I mean, I've heard some

433
00:21:02,920 --> 00:21:06,199
Speaker 2: very credible sources about why they hit it. And you know,

434
00:21:06,280 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 2: I was pretty much focused on the under in this game.

435
00:21:08,720 --> 00:21:10,359
Speaker 2: I just I didn't want a piece of this until

436
00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,680
Speaker 2: maybe it got to two and a half and maybe

437
00:21:12,720 --> 00:21:14,600
Speaker 2: you could pay for a three. I don't think I'm

438
00:21:14,680 --> 00:21:16,359
Speaker 2: very interested in getting into this, but I can make

439
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:18,399
Speaker 2: a case as to why I took the under, and

440
00:21:18,480 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 2: maybe that'll give us a reason before you and I

441
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,800
Speaker 2: do our live show on Saturday, maybe to pick a side.

442
00:21:22,840 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 2: So Blake Korum is going to miss this game for Michigan,

443
00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:27,600
Speaker 2: and that's going to put all of the work on

444
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:30,919
Speaker 2: Hassan Haskins. He's expected to get the prime workload in

445
00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,480
Speaker 2: this game. Where Caid McNamara, we don't know his injury status.

446
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:38,920
Speaker 2: Harbaugh said he was not feeling well on Monday whatsoever

447
00:21:38,960 --> 00:21:41,000
Speaker 2: from an injury perspective, and then on Tuesday said, well,

448
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:43,760
Speaker 2: he feels better than he did yesterday and he'll be

449
00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:45,440
Speaker 2: able to go in the game. But he's beat up,

450
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:47,639
Speaker 2: he's hurt, and that means that there's going to be

451
00:21:47,640 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 2: more of the backup of the JJ McCarthy kid who

452
00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:52,320
Speaker 2: likes to throw interceptions and fumble the ball at any

453
00:21:52,359 --> 00:21:54,400
Speaker 2: point in the time. I don't know why this kid

454
00:21:54,480 --> 00:21:56,959
Speaker 2: keeps getting stabs When Cad McNamara was healthy.

455
00:21:57,160 --> 00:21:59,960
Speaker 1: You know, he's an explosive fly. That's he brings the explosion.

456
00:22:00,040 --> 00:22:01,800
Speaker 1: Who's the hot he brings the highs and lows.

457
00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,159
Speaker 2: Boy, Yeah, you're right, the highs and the lows here,

458
00:22:04,200 --> 00:22:06,600
Speaker 2: which could decide a game when it's so tight like this.

459
00:22:06,720 --> 00:22:08,879
Speaker 2: But you know, Penn State's giving up an abundance of

460
00:22:08,960 --> 00:22:11,199
Speaker 2: rushing yards and I've said this three weeks in a

461
00:22:11,240 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 2: row now since PJ. Musselif forgot heard it. At the

462
00:22:13,440 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 2: defensive interior spot, Illinois goes for three fifty seven on

463
00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,639
Speaker 2: the ground in between the tackles. Ohio State goes for

464
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixty seven point three yards per play

465
00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: on the ground in standard downs over seven yards per play.

466
00:22:27,680 --> 00:22:29,760
Speaker 2: Maryland didn't even try to run the ball. I don't

467
00:22:29,760 --> 00:22:31,719
Speaker 2: know what the hell Maryland was doing. I'm glad we

468
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:33,600
Speaker 2: bet them and that didn't work out. They didn't even

469
00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:35,520
Speaker 2: try to run the ball. I'm still a little hot

470
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,760
Speaker 2: about it. They threw thirty five more times than they ran,

471
00:22:38,840 --> 00:22:41,120
Speaker 2: so I don't know what the game plan was for Locksley,

472
00:22:41,160 --> 00:22:42,680
Speaker 2: but they didn't even try to attempt to go after

473
00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,960
Speaker 2: the Penn State defensive line. Michigan will though, Michigan will

474
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 2: run the ball and go after that line. Now, if

475
00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:50,840
Speaker 2: you go and check ACU weather for this noon eastern kick,

476
00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:58,160
Speaker 2: wet snowflakes is is what is forecasted at the fifty Yeah,

477
00:22:58,200 --> 00:23:01,000
Speaker 2: and a lot of winds. So that play and you know,

478
00:23:01,320 --> 00:23:02,800
Speaker 2: the game is not going to come down to Cap

479
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 2: McNamara throwing the ball at all whatsoever. It's going to

480
00:23:05,600 --> 00:23:08,280
Speaker 2: be running, it's going to be between the tackles, it's going

481
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,160
Speaker 2: to be right at that soft spot at that Penn

482
00:23:10,160 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 2: State defense. So that is a case for slow tempo,

483
00:23:14,080 --> 00:23:16,920
Speaker 2: not a lot of points being scored. And hey, Stuck

484
00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,439
Speaker 2: already mentioned it. Penn State second the nation defensive finishing drives.

485
00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 2: They may give up this run, but once they get

486
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:24,880
Speaker 2: down pass the forty past the twenty, they don't give

487
00:23:24,920 --> 00:23:28,439
Speaker 2: up anything. Second best in the nation. Very impressive stuff.

488
00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:29,920
Speaker 2: Let's go to the other side of the ball. Yeah,

489
00:23:29,920 --> 00:23:33,439
Speaker 2: that's all their safeties, their safeties, I agree, all right,

490
00:23:33,480 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 2: So let's talk about the Penn State offense what they're

491
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,320
Speaker 2: gonna do. And you're right, it's all about Johan Dotson.

492
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:41,200
Speaker 2: They have essentially given up on trying to run the ball.

493
00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:43,639
Speaker 2: None of these running backs are able to pull away

494
00:23:43,680 --> 00:23:47,639
Speaker 2: and have explosive plays. So what the handicap comes down

495
00:23:47,640 --> 00:23:51,200
Speaker 2: to is John Dotson. That comes down to the corners.

496
00:23:51,600 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 2: And if you look at the corners for Michigan, the

497
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 2: person that's going to get tagged to be all over

498
00:23:56,760 --> 00:23:59,400
Speaker 2: him is DJ Turner. And when you deep dive into

499
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 2: PFF to what DJ Turner has been able to do,

500
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,440
Speaker 2: he's been targeted over thirty times. He's allowed eight catches

501
00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 2: this year and he's forced a dozen in completions. They're

502
00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:11,840
Speaker 2: going to be all over Dotson. I think that's going

503
00:24:11,920 --> 00:24:14,960
Speaker 2: to shut down Penn State's attack. Michigan is eighth in

504
00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:18,479
Speaker 2: the country in defensive finishing drives. There's no way for

505
00:24:18,520 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: these teams to have explosive plays. Michigan's going to be

506
00:24:21,080 --> 00:24:24,000
Speaker 2: ground and pound. Michigan has the defense to stop Johan Dotson,

507
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:27,440
Speaker 2: and these defenses ranked second eighth in defensive finishing drives.

508
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:29,720
Speaker 2: For me, it's a no brainer. Who was a first

509
00:24:29,720 --> 00:24:32,480
Speaker 2: half under twenty four with the wet Snowflakes. I would

510
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:34,960
Speaker 2: play the under forty eight and a half, forty eight

511
00:24:35,000 --> 00:24:37,800
Speaker 2: being a very big key number in college football, but

512
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 2: I felt more comfortable with the first half under twenty four.

513
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,159
Speaker 2: I would probably play full game under forty eight and

514
00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:43,200
Speaker 2: a half down to forty eight.

515
00:24:43,640 --> 00:24:46,239
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff there, and you mentioned it. Make

516
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 1: sure you tune into our live show Big Bets on

517
00:24:48,240 --> 00:24:51,439
Speaker 1: Campus Live ten thirty am Eastern on Saturday on Twitter.

518
00:24:51,440 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: We'll both tweet that out. Let's move on to the

519
00:24:53,280 --> 00:24:55,280
Speaker 1: second Marquee game of the day. Let's go to the

520
00:24:55,320 --> 00:24:59,560
Speaker 1: Big twelve Oklahoma at Baylor. This is also at noon

521
00:25:00,119 --> 00:25:01,400
Speaker 1: on Fox.

522
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:04,359
Speaker 2: College Football.

523
00:25:07,240 --> 00:25:08,879
Speaker 1: Man, I mean, this is gonna be this day is

524
00:25:08,920 --> 00:25:11,639
Speaker 1: just it's gonna get crazy right away. Oklahoma nine to

525
00:25:11,760 --> 00:25:14,360
Speaker 1: zero coming off of a bye. Here, they're laying five

526
00:25:14,400 --> 00:25:16,159
Speaker 1: and a half at Baylor over under sixty two and

527
00:25:16,160 --> 00:25:20,479
Speaker 1: a half. All right, I can't figure out who Oklahoma is,

528
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:22,920
Speaker 1: you know, if they're a really hard team to crack.

529
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:27,040
Speaker 1: They went They beat Tulane by five, They beat Nebraska

530
00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:30,800
Speaker 1: by seven, They beat West Virginia by three, They beat

531
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:35,480
Speaker 1: Kansas State by six, They beat Texas by seven. You know,

532
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:38,480
Speaker 1: they beat a reeling TCU team by twenty one box

533
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:43,280
Speaker 1: scores closer than that, barely beat Kansas needed a fourth

534
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:46,240
Speaker 1: down miracle to seal it. You know, then they blow

535
00:25:46,240 --> 00:25:49,240
Speaker 1: out Texas Tech and back of quarterback. I mean these results,

536
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: I mean they are not impressive at all, and they

537
00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:55,359
Speaker 1: haven't really played anybody, so but you know, you had

538
00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,200
Speaker 1: a quarterback change in the middle of that. You also

539
00:25:58,240 --> 00:26:01,400
Speaker 1: have had defensive injury. So you know, when you look

540
00:26:01,440 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 1: at the defense early in the year, they were great

541
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,080
Speaker 1: at defending the run. Over the last four to five weeks,

542
00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 1: that's stopped there's mistackles, there's the yards before contact went

543
00:26:11,440 --> 00:26:14,520
Speaker 1: from elite to not, so I don't know what was

544
00:26:14,560 --> 00:26:18,000
Speaker 1: going on. The pass defense has been bad all year long, horrific.

545
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:20,440
Speaker 1: I mean literally one of the worst pass defenses in

546
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:23,800
Speaker 1: the country, just giving up explosive plays all over the place.

547
00:26:24,080 --> 00:26:27,119
Speaker 1: Had I think they've went up twice as many explosive

548
00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:29,439
Speaker 1: passes and they did all of last year in eight games,

549
00:26:29,760 --> 00:26:32,720
Speaker 1: you know, and they're only seventy ninth at Sachart even

550
00:26:32,760 --> 00:26:35,480
Speaker 1: though they have you know, Benito and Thomas off of

551
00:26:35,520 --> 00:26:38,159
Speaker 1: the edge. But here's the thing, like, what do I

552
00:26:38,200 --> 00:26:41,440
Speaker 1: make about the defense getting healthier. Jalen Redmond, their best

553
00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:44,720
Speaker 1: defensive lineman is back. He missed time. Their best safety turner,

554
00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:47,080
Speaker 1: Yal is bad. He came back against Texas Tech. That

555
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:50,600
Speaker 1: means they moved Key Lawrence outside corner. And they also

556
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,480
Speaker 1: have Royals now taking over at slot. That means Jalen

557
00:26:53,520 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 1: Davis and Billy Bowman are off the field. That's huge.

558
00:26:55,920 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 1: They stunk, They stunk up. The joint Pat Fields is

559
00:26:58,720 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: still in there at safety horrendous. I don't know where

560
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,879
Speaker 1: Oklahoma gets some of these defensive backs. So but there's

561
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: you know, you got your best defensive lineman back in there.

562
00:27:08,640 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 1: You got you know, one of your starting cornerbacks, Graham,

563
00:27:11,440 --> 00:27:13,320
Speaker 1: he missed a game. He's back. Turner Yale, your best

564
00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,280
Speaker 1: safety's back. You moved Lawrence to corner, which looks like

565
00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:18,240
Speaker 1: a smart move. So do I just do I say

566
00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 1: now that the Oklahoma defense is going to be improved?

567
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,760
Speaker 1: Really tough, not to crap. Bale's offensive line has been

568
00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,560
Speaker 1: really good. They're eighth and sack right sixth an opportunity rate.

569
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:29,440
Speaker 1: Jacob Golda from Buffalo has been great. But they haven't

570
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,320
Speaker 1: played many teams either. And then you know they lose

571
00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 1: the TCU. Was that just the spot? You know, they

572
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,440
Speaker 1: lose to Oklahoma State. They get a bit lucky against

573
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:40,440
Speaker 1: Iowa State. So two teams that are just hard to

574
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 1: figure out, and they're about to hit the hardest part

575
00:27:42,640 --> 00:27:47,400
Speaker 1: of their schedule. You know, it's just a hard game

576
00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:49,520
Speaker 1: for me to cap. Part of me wants to say,

577
00:27:50,119 --> 00:27:52,760
Speaker 1: let me make Oklahoma prove it. They you know, all

578
00:27:52,880 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 1: these not they just keep playing all these close games.

579
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,960
Speaker 1: The other part of me says, Okay, they're healthier on defense,

580
00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:00,119
Speaker 1: they're coming off of buye. Their offense is better with

581
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:03,080
Speaker 1: Kaylen Williams in there, so help me make sense of

582
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,120
Speaker 1: this one. I think it's a high variance game. Maybe

583
00:28:06,119 --> 00:28:07,880
Speaker 1: if you want to take Baylor money line, it might

584
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,760
Speaker 1: be the look in a round robin. But curious to

585
00:28:10,760 --> 00:28:11,520
Speaker 1: get your thoughts here.

586
00:28:11,840 --> 00:28:13,840
Speaker 2: I think Baylor can win this game. Now, the market

587
00:28:13,840 --> 00:28:16,040
Speaker 2: disagrees with me, because right before you and I hit

588
00:28:16,080 --> 00:28:19,480
Speaker 2: record here, the one of the shops in Jersey just

589
00:28:19,480 --> 00:28:20,879
Speaker 2: went from five and a half up to six and

590
00:28:20,920 --> 00:28:23,960
Speaker 2: a half. And that is a direct reflection of Lincoln

591
00:28:24,040 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: Riley finally showing up. Lincoln Riley was not on his

592
00:28:27,320 --> 00:28:30,440
Speaker 2: usual press conference early in the week. His Coaches show

593
00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,439
Speaker 2: on Tuesday was canceled. The rumors flying around that he's on.

594
00:28:33,400 --> 00:28:35,119
Speaker 1: The LSU fans thought he was on a jet.

595
00:28:35,320 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, they thought he was on a jet. He just

596
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:41,880
Speaker 2: but he just came out to the media about an

597
00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:44,400
Speaker 2: hour before we recorded and said, no, it was a

598
00:28:44,400 --> 00:28:46,360
Speaker 2: personal matter. I take care of some personal things. It's

599
00:28:46,360 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 2: been dealt with, and now we're back on and no

600
00:28:49,160 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: schedules have been disrupted. So maybe that's the reason that

601
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,880
Speaker 2: there's a bump in the market here going on. But

602
00:28:54,040 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 2: I mean, oh, you get some players back on defense, cornerback,

603
00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 2: Woody Washington hasn't play since early September. He's supposed to

604
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,960
Speaker 2: be back. They desperately need full health against a Baylor

605
00:29:02,040 --> 00:29:05,320
Speaker 2: rush attack of Abram Smith and when Gary Bohanam leaves

606
00:29:05,320 --> 00:29:08,000
Speaker 2: the pocket like it's it could be chaos against this

607
00:29:08,040 --> 00:29:11,000
Speaker 2: Ou defense. So you know, I think full health is

608
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:12,680
Speaker 2: what we're going to get on defense. So we should

609
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:14,960
Speaker 2: see a little bit better performance than what we've seen

610
00:29:15,040 --> 00:29:18,120
Speaker 2: the last few games. But as a Baylor offense, that's

611
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 2: third and rushing success rate, they're ninth in line yards.

612
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: They got a sixty percent clip to the rush, which

613
00:29:23,960 --> 00:29:26,360
Speaker 2: shows you how much that they want Abram Smith and

614
00:29:26,400 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 2: Gary Bohannon to be is such a big part of

615
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:31,680
Speaker 2: that offense. It's kind of tough to see Baylor win

616
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,720
Speaker 2: this game after getting burnt by Chandler Morris. Chandler Morris

617
00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 2: a quarterback that left Ou because he couldn't get any

618
00:29:36,880 --> 00:29:39,760
Speaker 2: playing time. But you know, TCU had ten passes over

619
00:29:39,840 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 2: fifteen yards, So that tells me that kayleb Williams is

620
00:29:42,800 --> 00:29:44,840
Speaker 2: going to put up some of the best offensive numbers

621
00:29:44,840 --> 00:29:46,720
Speaker 2: of the week. For all the contenders that are going

622
00:29:46,720 --> 00:29:48,920
Speaker 2: for the Heisman Trophy, I think Caleb Williams would be

623
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:51,160
Speaker 2: like a fantasy play of the week against this Baylor

624
00:29:51,560 --> 00:29:54,480
Speaker 2: secondary that is just progressively getting worse eighty seventh and

625
00:29:54,520 --> 00:29:57,479
Speaker 2: defensive passing success rate, they're now outside the top one

626
00:29:57,560 --> 00:30:00,160
Speaker 2: hundred and big play prevention. They're allowing a lot lot

627
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:04,160
Speaker 2: of long plays from scrimmage, and you know BYU average

628
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,920
Speaker 2: nine point one yards per play on standard downs. The

629
00:30:06,920 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 2: Bears can't get people into passing downs, they can't get

630
00:30:10,400 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 2: them off schedule, and so I think that's gonna be

631
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 2: a huge problem. So if Kayleb Williams comes out throwing

632
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,960
Speaker 2: with an updated playbook some wrinkles in there off of

633
00:30:18,040 --> 00:30:20,440
Speaker 2: the bye week, then OHU is gonna be able to

634
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 2: score a ton of points. Big time advantages and both

635
00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:26,000
Speaker 2: offenses and finishing drives. I think there's gonna be a

636
00:30:26,040 --> 00:30:28,240
Speaker 2: lot of points in this game. Baylor is going to

637
00:30:28,280 --> 00:30:30,360
Speaker 2: be able to get their own, especially on the ground.

638
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 2: I don't know why the number keeps going away from

639
00:30:33,520 --> 00:30:37,720
Speaker 2: my projection of four. I know SP plus is around two.

640
00:30:38,480 --> 00:30:40,080
Speaker 2: This number continues to go up. It could be the

641
00:30:40,120 --> 00:30:42,719
Speaker 2: Lincoln Riley factor, it could be health on the defense factor.

642
00:30:43,040 --> 00:30:45,800
Speaker 2: I'm gonna get turned into buying Baylor here. Six and

643
00:30:45,840 --> 00:30:47,600
Speaker 2: a half is way too many points. If everybody else

644
00:30:47,640 --> 00:30:49,320
Speaker 2: wants to join it and give me a cheap seven,

645
00:30:49,880 --> 00:30:52,600
Speaker 2: it's gonna be Bears all the way. Listen, Randa's had

646
00:30:52,600 --> 00:30:55,040
Speaker 2: success against so you against Lincoln Riley. This is a

647
00:30:55,080 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 2: game where I'm looking at Baylor and the numbers just

648
00:30:57,840 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 2: keeps going the other way.

649
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, at seven, it would be hard to pass out.

650
00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:05,280
Speaker 1: But we'll learn a lot more about Oklahoma. Just a

651
00:31:05,280 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 1: weird team. They've had a lot of defensivevisiores at two

652
00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:11,000
Speaker 1: different quarterbacks, and they just had underwhelming results against teams

653
00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:13,719
Speaker 1: that they should be beating by bigger margins. All right,

654
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 1: let's move to the Big ten. Let's talk Purdue Ohio State.

655
00:31:19,040 --> 00:31:20,960
Speaker 1: Ohio State twenty and a half point favorite over under

656
00:31:21,000 --> 00:31:24,000
Speaker 1: sixty two and a half. The spoiler makers are going

657
00:31:24,080 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 1: to try to beat another top ten team. I think

658
00:31:26,840 --> 00:31:29,680
Speaker 1: they've done at three straight the last three times Brahmas

659
00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:32,600
Speaker 1: faced them. Now the Ohio said. Last time these teams met,

660
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,000
Speaker 1: Purdue actually beat Ohio State. That was at the end

661
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:37,720
Speaker 1: of the Herban Meyer regime and knocked them out of

662
00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,040
Speaker 1: the College Football Playoff. That was when.

663
00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:44,719
Speaker 2: Glorious and more it was glorious twenty eighteen. It was glorious.

664
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:49,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, we were all over Purdue there. Purdue, Purdue.

665
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 2: They're not even a real school.

666
00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:53,520
Speaker 1: What the hell is the Purdue Purdue. Obviously, coming off

667
00:31:53,520 --> 00:31:56,760
Speaker 1: that huge win against Michigan State, I thought I was

668
00:31:56,800 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 1: gonna love Purdue here and I think I'm staying alive.

669
00:32:00,040 --> 00:32:03,440
Speaker 1: You know, I project it close to seventeen. Now there's issues.

670
00:32:04,000 --> 00:32:07,240
Speaker 1: It's just an awful spot. We saw Purdue beat Iowa

671
00:32:07,320 --> 00:32:09,720
Speaker 1: and then they went out and laid an egg against

672
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: Wisconsin the next week and lost thirty to thirteen. So

673
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:17,880
Speaker 1: what this comes down to is, can can Purdue pass

674
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,840
Speaker 1: on Ohio State? Right? And then can David Bell go off?

675
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,120
Speaker 1: Because they can't run the ball? Ostly does not have

676
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 1: to worry about the run. Purdue is one of the

677
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,760
Speaker 1: worst rushing offenses in the country. Can't do it at all.

678
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:31,000
Speaker 1: And then on the other side of the ball, can

679
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:35,960
Speaker 1: Purdue slow down Ohio State? And I'm starting to doubt

680
00:32:36,040 --> 00:32:38,960
Speaker 1: that their defense is playing really well to new aggressive defense,

681
00:32:39,360 --> 00:32:41,640
Speaker 1: a lot of blitzes. George Carlatsis is the first round

682
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:44,760
Speaker 1: draft pick at defensive end, but you know, you look

683
00:32:44,800 --> 00:32:47,960
Speaker 1: at the last couple of games. What Purdue's defense did.

684
00:32:48,000 --> 00:32:51,120
Speaker 1: I mean, you look at Wisconsin the Nebraska of misleading

685
00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:53,680
Speaker 1: bus where they put up seven yards per play. Michigan

686
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:56,000
Speaker 1: State got five hundred and fifty yards of offense and

687
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: seven yards per play. So I don't know if they're corners.

688
00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,640
Speaker 1: You gotta remember with Trice their best cover corner, their

689
00:33:01,680 --> 00:33:04,320
Speaker 1: best man corner. It's an aggressive defense. He's out for

690
00:33:04,320 --> 00:33:06,320
Speaker 1: the year. They only played two games this year. I

691
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,080
Speaker 1: think they really miss him. So early in the year

692
00:33:09,080 --> 00:33:11,200
Speaker 1: they were playing teams that can't really throw the ball,

693
00:33:11,880 --> 00:33:14,800
Speaker 1: and their defensive numbers looked a lot better than they were,

694
00:33:16,240 --> 00:33:19,360
Speaker 1: So I don't know if they can defend these Ohio

695
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 1: State receivers, especially with looks like Garrett Wilson will be

696
00:33:23,360 --> 00:33:26,480
Speaker 1: back in the mis now. There are some issues with

697
00:33:26,520 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 1: this Ohio State team. When I look at the offense,

698
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,959
Speaker 1: the interior offensive line is not playing well. They're not

699
00:33:35,040 --> 00:33:37,200
Speaker 1: really running the ball the last couple of weeks, and

700
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:42,600
Speaker 1: did Penn State provide a formula they were doing. They

701
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:46,040
Speaker 1: were doing all kinds of stunts in prestat motion with

702
00:33:46,160 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 1: their defensive line and it caused it caused Ohio States

703
00:33:50,040 --> 00:33:53,680
Speaker 1: offensive line some issues. Nebraska, they couldn't run it, But

704
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: do they have thirty carries for ninety yards against Nebraska?

705
00:33:57,480 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: So can produce defensive line good against the run all

706
00:34:01,600 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 1: things considered, if you look at success rate, So I

707
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:06,640
Speaker 1: think that, you know, and the other thing that I'm

708
00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,279
Speaker 1: worried about is it came out that Penn State was

709
00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:13,400
Speaker 1: calling out the plays, calling out Ohio State's plays before

710
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:16,960
Speaker 1: the snap. So is the Ohio State inside There was

711
00:34:17,040 --> 00:34:20,960
Speaker 1: rumors at Nebraska was doing the same thing. And you know,

712
00:34:21,719 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 1: is this offense becoming predictable?

713
00:34:24,120 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 2: C J.

714
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,439
Speaker 1: Shroud also won't run the ball. I don't know why

715
00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 1: when he's rolling out instead of getting ten yards, will

716
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:31,560
Speaker 1: throw a pick. I mean, he's playing really well. He's

717
00:34:31,560 --> 00:34:34,120
Speaker 1: got great receivers, but he makes some questionable throws. So

718
00:34:34,320 --> 00:34:36,400
Speaker 1: I do have some questions about Higo States offense. But

719
00:34:36,440 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 1: I do think that they with their receivers against this

720
00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:41,520
Speaker 1: produced secondary from what I've seen, they should put up

721
00:34:41,520 --> 00:34:43,160
Speaker 1: a lot of points here. It's also an awful spot

722
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 1: for Purdue on the other side of the ball. Ken

723
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:49,560
Speaker 1: Ohio States slow down Purdue and David Bell. You know

724
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:52,520
Speaker 1: they have some town on the outside of corner. I'm

725
00:34:52,560 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 1: sure now what you have to do with David Bell's

726
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:55,960
Speaker 1: put a corner on them, put a safety over top

727
00:34:56,000 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: of them. We've seen a couple of teams do it.

728
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,360
Speaker 1: We see wisconstitute and slow them down. He said, some

729
00:35:00,480 --> 00:35:03,440
Speaker 1: huge games, and he said some book. Michigan State's are

730
00:35:03,440 --> 00:35:04,880
Speaker 1: one of the worst past defenses in the country. We

731
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:07,960
Speaker 1: told you that they play soft. Will Ohio State go

732
00:35:08,080 --> 00:35:10,439
Speaker 1: to two high safeties here? Put a safety over top.

733
00:35:11,239 --> 00:35:14,040
Speaker 1: You think they're smart enough to do that, but I

734
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:17,080
Speaker 1: don't know they really do. Miss Josh Brockter at safety

735
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 1: Shawl's been horrendous and there's been some mis assignments in

736
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:24,120
Speaker 1: the secondary. I expect bron to use some trick plays

737
00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:26,360
Speaker 1: here and they're going to try to throw. Do you

738
00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:30,400
Speaker 1: get really good O'Connell or really bad O'Connell because he

739
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,239
Speaker 1: can run very hot and cold. You know, when I

740
00:35:33,280 --> 00:35:38,080
Speaker 1: look at everything, I I just it's my gut is

741
00:35:38,080 --> 00:35:41,760
Speaker 1: telling me. Ohio State roles, Yeah.

742
00:35:41,680 --> 00:35:44,200
Speaker 2: Absolutely, I agree with you. My favorite version of Stucky

743
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,120
Speaker 2: is when he picks out a defensive back from Ohio

744
00:35:46,200 --> 00:35:48,880
Speaker 2: State and just picks on them all year, like Sean Wade, right,

745
00:35:48,960 --> 00:35:51,160
Speaker 2: sounds like we got a new candidate here for somebody

746
00:35:51,160 --> 00:35:54,960
Speaker 2: to pick all. So listen, I agree with you, and

747
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:57,480
Speaker 2: and Ohio State made adjustments in the middle of the season.

748
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 2: We talked about it at a link. Kerry Comb's not

749
00:35:59,400 --> 00:36:02,960
Speaker 2: calling play is play calling got taken over. They simplified

750
00:36:02,960 --> 00:36:05,440
Speaker 2: the defense, meaning they're not flipping their corners, they're not

751
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:09,040
Speaker 2: flipping their linebackers, and they decided to go to a

752
00:36:09,120 --> 00:36:13,279
Speaker 2: two safety soft shell, which means that's what you have

753
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,080
Speaker 2: to have to defend David Bell. Right, So I what

754
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:19,160
Speaker 2: the changes that they've made for a couple of weeks

755
00:36:19,200 --> 00:36:22,200
Speaker 2: are actually a good move when it comes to defending

756
00:36:22,200 --> 00:36:26,399
Speaker 2: Aidan O'Connell and David Bell. And similar to what Wisconsin did.

757
00:36:26,440 --> 00:36:28,200
Speaker 2: So it was a good point out by you, and

758
00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:29,960
Speaker 2: what Ohio State has done during the middle of the

759
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 2: season kind of fits what they have to do to

760
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,000
Speaker 2: stop to stop the boiler Makers. And that's really where

761
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 2: my biggest issues with Purdue come. They are really big

762
00:36:37,920 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 2: on the explosive pass and if that isn't scoring points.

763
00:36:40,960 --> 00:36:43,440
Speaker 2: The red zone has been below the midpoint and FBS

764
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:45,320
Speaker 2: offenses a modest three.

765
00:36:45,120 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: Point If they can't run the ball, you need to

766
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:48,000
Speaker 1: be able to run the ball in the red zone zone.

767
00:36:48,239 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 2: The closer you get to the closer you get to

768
00:36:49,960 --> 00:36:51,719
Speaker 2: the goal line, you're gonna have to be better running

769
00:36:51,719 --> 00:36:53,239
Speaker 2: the ball because you don't have so much space to

770
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 2: air it out. And they average three point four yards

771
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:58,279
Speaker 2: per trip past the forty. So say what you want

772
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,080
Speaker 2: about the Ohio State defense and how they've been torn up.

773
00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:03,760
Speaker 2: They only allow three point one points to offenses across

774
00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:05,680
Speaker 2: the forty and they now rank fourteenth in the nation

775
00:37:05,719 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 2: in defensive finishing drives. I'll say it a billion times.

776
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:12,440
Speaker 2: Finishing drives is a key to finding out who's going

777
00:37:12,520 --> 00:37:15,600
Speaker 2: to cover against the spread, and the Ohio State defense

778
00:37:15,640 --> 00:37:18,360
Speaker 2: has the numbers here. If the boiler Makers aren't scoring

779
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 2: points on explosive plays, which you know from the way

780
00:37:21,239 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 2: they've got their secondary set up, I think that they

781
00:37:23,040 --> 00:37:25,400
Speaker 2: can prevent a few big plays here. But something that

782
00:37:25,520 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 2: everybody needs to pay attention here. Ohio State's number one

783
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:32,160
Speaker 2: in the country and special teams per sp plus perdue

784
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 2: one hundred and sixteen. Special teams matter, and in this

785
00:37:35,840 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 2: case with Ohio State and Purdue a monster gap. I'm

786
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:41,840
Speaker 2: buying Ohio State in this game. I think they score

787
00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:44,439
Speaker 2: a ton here. I think they make a statement. They've

788
00:37:44,440 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 2: made the defensive changes. With the way that they're working

789
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:49,680
Speaker 2: two safeties. Buck, guys, I think they can make a statement.

790
00:37:49,880 --> 00:37:52,680
Speaker 1: All right, let's cover this one quickly. We won't spend

791
00:37:52,680 --> 00:37:57,799
Speaker 1: too much time on at Georgia at Tennessee. Right now,

792
00:37:57,840 --> 00:38:00,239
Speaker 1: the line is sitting right around twenty twenty and a

793
00:38:00,280 --> 00:38:05,360
Speaker 1: half over under fifty six. Here's where I'm thinking with

794
00:38:05,440 --> 00:38:09,000
Speaker 1: this game. Look, there's no way Georgia is gonna keep

795
00:38:10,160 --> 00:38:14,160
Speaker 1: allowing nobody to score inside the twenty. I mean Florida

796
00:38:14,200 --> 00:38:18,440
Speaker 1: had four trips inside the twenty without any points. Florida

797
00:38:18,520 --> 00:38:20,680
Speaker 1: outgame Georgia in that game, believe it or not. If

798
00:38:20,719 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 1: you go back and look, But who's Georgia played From

799
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,600
Speaker 1: a quarterback perspective. I mean we've said this, they haven't

800
00:38:27,600 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: played any good passing offenses Clemson. Go look at EPA

801
00:38:32,560 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 1: Total EPA for quarterbacks dj Ogalie, I think second worst

802
00:38:38,280 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 1: among all quarterbacks in college football. By the way, only

803
00:38:42,840 --> 00:38:45,400
Speaker 1: Brady Olsen for UMass is worst. You know, then they

804
00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:54,640
Speaker 1: played UAB, South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Poverty, Auburn, Kentucky, Florida

805
00:38:54,760 --> 00:38:57,520
Speaker 1: who outgained them. But it's not an elite passing offense.

806
00:38:57,840 --> 00:39:01,360
Speaker 1: Missouri so now they're going to play an NFL quarterback

807
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: and a quarterback that's playing out of his mind. So

808
00:39:04,640 --> 00:39:06,919
Speaker 1: I think that Tennessee's offense, which by the way, maybe

809
00:39:06,960 --> 00:39:08,759
Speaker 1: this is a bad thing there at average, what two

810
00:39:08,760 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 1: point eight nine plays per minute leads the nation. But

811
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:14,760
Speaker 1: I think that this is the first time that Georgia's

812
00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:18,440
Speaker 1: defense really gets tested. Tennessee can put up some points. Now,

813
00:39:18,760 --> 00:39:21,359
Speaker 1: having said that, I'm leaning if this like, I think

814
00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 1: there's too much value in Tennessee to pass up. If

815
00:39:23,680 --> 00:39:25,160
Speaker 1: this guy, I'm waiting for twenty one. I don't know

816
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:27,840
Speaker 1: if we're going to get there, but I'm actually starting

817
00:39:27,840 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 1: to think about Tennessee plus eleven first half. How many

818
00:39:31,200 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 1: times have we seen Tennessee meltdown late? I mean, by

819
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:39,640
Speaker 1: the way, this this is a Tennessee offense that against

820
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 1: Alabama had averaged more yards per play. Was it was

821
00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 1: another one a meltdown for us this year? But I

822
00:39:47,360 --> 00:39:48,560
Speaker 1: don't know, did you have them too? Did you have

823
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:49,759
Speaker 1: Tennessee against Alabama?

824
00:39:49,840 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 2: I just threw money across as we're talking because I

825
00:39:53,719 --> 00:39:54,719
Speaker 2: already made my mind up.

826
00:39:55,239 --> 00:39:56,880
Speaker 1: But seventh, it was a seven point game in the

827
00:39:56,880 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 1: fourth quarter. This is a team that moves the ball

828
00:39:58,280 --> 00:40:00,359
Speaker 1: on everybody. But the only thing I'm worried to where

829
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 1: I'm thinking about first half is Tennessee was on the

830
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:04,719
Speaker 1: field for Not only did they always melt down at

831
00:40:04,719 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 1: the end, they were on the field for forty five

832
00:40:07,320 --> 00:40:10,839
Speaker 1: minutes last week in Kentucky. Their defense maybe they were

833
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:13,480
Speaker 1: just scoring on a explosive places at Katucky to the ball.

834
00:40:13,680 --> 00:40:16,600
Speaker 1: So does their defense wear down against George's rush attack

835
00:40:17,120 --> 00:40:19,560
Speaker 1: in the second half. It is a concern, especially because

836
00:40:19,520 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 1: Tennessee plays so fast. So I might be looking first half,

837
00:40:23,320 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 1: but this line is too high, thoughts.

838
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:28,320
Speaker 2: Way too high. It's a game I project eighteen. I

839
00:40:28,360 --> 00:40:30,399
Speaker 2: don't think we're gonna get a twenty one. I put

840
00:40:30,400 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 2: a bed in. I just threw a nickel down on

841
00:40:32,040 --> 00:40:34,200
Speaker 2: Tennessee and put it in the app twenty and a half.

842
00:40:34,320 --> 00:40:36,120
Speaker 2: If it lands twenty one, fine, I mean I make

843
00:40:36,160 --> 00:40:39,080
Speaker 2: it lower in the power rating. And I think there's

844
00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:41,680
Speaker 2: too much value. And I know that George is inflated

845
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:44,879
Speaker 2: every single week. But go and look at the list

846
00:40:44,920 --> 00:40:47,360
Speaker 2: of teams that George's played this year. Who has the

847
00:40:47,440 --> 00:40:51,840
Speaker 2: highest tempo Auburn. Auburn's in the mid thirties. When you

848
00:40:51,880 --> 00:40:54,480
Speaker 2: go and look at the rest of the schedule from Georgia.

849
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:56,600
Speaker 1: It's Arouburt has no receivers too.

850
00:40:56,600 --> 00:40:59,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, no receivers. I mean it's Auburn may be running

851
00:40:59,160 --> 00:41:00,880
Speaker 2: a tempo in the mid thirties, but it's not like

852
00:41:00,880 --> 00:41:03,000
Speaker 2: they're out there slinging the ball like a Hendon hooker

853
00:41:03,480 --> 00:41:07,360
Speaker 2: going deep. That that just wasn't happening. And the number

854
00:41:07,400 --> 00:41:09,640
Speaker 2: that I've been caught up on all week, Like literally

855
00:41:09,719 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 2: my fingers been hovering over the button to submit money.

856
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:16,080
Speaker 2: The team total on Tennessee is seventeen and a half. Really,

857
00:41:16,560 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 2: no one's scored more than thirteen on Georgia. Like, if

858
00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 2: you want to talk about fishiest line of the week,

859
00:41:22,280 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 2: the Tennessee team total is seventeen and a half. I

860
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:26,919
Speaker 2: don't know how you don't play that as an over

861
00:41:27,080 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 2: and as just for fun. But listen, Georgia has not

862
00:41:31,120 --> 00:41:33,839
Speaker 2: played any team with tempo. They have not played any

863
00:41:33,840 --> 00:41:37,560
Speaker 2: team with a downfield vertical attack. This was my handicap

864
00:41:37,640 --> 00:41:41,680
Speaker 2: against Florida. I was under the impression there'd be downfield passing.

865
00:41:41,960 --> 00:41:43,640
Speaker 2: I was under the impression that somebody was going to

866
00:41:43,680 --> 00:41:46,280
Speaker 2: take a shot at the Georgia secondary, which is green

867
00:41:46,560 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 2: and young and untested. The only player that has on

868
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:53,920
Speaker 2: the entire schedule is bo Nicks, and Bonix doesn't have

869
00:41:53,920 --> 00:41:55,799
Speaker 2: any even experienced wide receiver group.

870
00:41:55,960 --> 00:41:58,120
Speaker 1: Bow Nicks season then full effect.

871
00:41:59,440 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 2: So it helps that Kid Mays is back on the

872
00:42:01,920 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 2: offensive line for Handon Hoooker to give him some protection.

873
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 2: It helps that there's some health going on. But look

874
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: at the running back room for Tennessee. Tyan Evans banged up,

875
00:42:10,960 --> 00:42:14,200
Speaker 2: Jabari Small banged up, looks like a freshman's going to

876
00:42:14,239 --> 00:42:16,239
Speaker 2: be a running back. This isn't just going to be

877
00:42:16,280 --> 00:42:18,759
Speaker 2: an uptimpo game for Hendon Hooker. It's going to be

878
00:42:18,880 --> 00:42:21,040
Speaker 2: a vertical passing game for Hendy.

879
00:42:21,120 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 1: You don't want to try to run against Georgia, no.

880
00:42:23,360 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 2: And why would you? Why waste your time on first

881
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,319
Speaker 2: and second down even trying that. So here's the deal,

882
00:42:28,440 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 2: this is a boomer Bus play. If Hndon Hooker is

883
00:42:31,120 --> 00:42:34,759
Speaker 2: successful throwing vertically, which George's not seen, and if josh

884
00:42:34,840 --> 00:42:38,479
Speaker 2: Iipel is successful running tempo against Georgia, which Georgie's not seen,

885
00:42:39,320 --> 00:42:41,880
Speaker 2: the Tennessee can make this a game, keep it a

886
00:42:41,880 --> 00:42:43,840
Speaker 2: one possession game, and maybe they screw up at the

887
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:46,680
Speaker 2: end and we cover right Georgia has not been pressed

888
00:42:46,719 --> 00:42:48,719
Speaker 2: like this before. They have not seen an offense like this.

889
00:42:49,280 --> 00:42:53,760
Speaker 2: And at the same time, Tennessee's playing respectable defense, especially

890
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:56,440
Speaker 2: in Havoc. They're thirty perst in Havoc. They are getting

891
00:42:56,480 --> 00:43:00,720
Speaker 2: back behind the line of scrimmage. Nobody has run tempo

892
00:43:00,880 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 2: or thrown deep against Georgia. And where are we. We're

893
00:43:04,160 --> 00:43:06,919
Speaker 2: almost a Thanksgiving and this will be the first real

894
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,560
Speaker 2: test for Georgia. It's really crazy to say that I'm

895
00:43:09,560 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 2: all in on Tennessee. I think this number pulls back.

896
00:43:13,640 --> 00:43:14,880
Speaker 2: So if you're listening to this and you see a

897
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:16,040
Speaker 2: twenty and a half twenty out there, I think you

898
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:18,439
Speaker 2: should grab it. Not to mention this is Tennessee's fourth

899
00:43:18,480 --> 00:43:20,879
Speaker 2: top twenty opponent in a row, or I might get

900
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:23,080
Speaker 2: a little froggy at that Tennessee money line first half.

901
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 3: Wish that.

902
00:43:26,680 --> 00:43:28,320
Speaker 2: Top down into Tennessee.

903
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,160
Speaker 1: I ain't no Smagy Small.

904
00:43:33,080 --> 00:43:33,480
Speaker 4: I ain't no.

905
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:38,279
Speaker 1: I think we might disagree on this game. Let's go

906
00:43:38,280 --> 00:43:40,919
Speaker 1: to the SEC. I think that you like all miss

907
00:43:41,000 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: but Texas A and M two and a half point

908
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:46,360
Speaker 1: favorite over under fifty seven and a half because that

909
00:43:46,520 --> 00:43:48,200
Speaker 1: is playing a little better. Here here's my hand you

910
00:43:48,239 --> 00:43:51,040
Speaker 1: cup with this game. This whole Miss offense is trending

911
00:43:51,080 --> 00:43:53,560
Speaker 1: down where they're just because of the injuries. You have,

912
00:43:53,800 --> 00:43:57,600
Speaker 1: injuries on the offensive line, injuries at wide receiver, mingoes

913
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:01,160
Speaker 1: out Sanders came back was limited last week. Uh, you

914
00:44:01,160 --> 00:44:04,920
Speaker 1: know there's across the board. Their top three receivers are

915
00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:08,080
Speaker 1: dealing with injuries. The offensive line, Matt Corrals, he one

916
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:10,920
Speaker 1: hundred percent healthy as far as his mobility, that's just

917
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 1: not the same offense that we saw early in the year.

918
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:15,240
Speaker 1: And now they're going up against a really good Texas

919
00:44:15,280 --> 00:44:17,920
Speaker 1: A and M defense on the other side of the ball.

920
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 1: Text am should able to run it will here and

921
00:44:20,560 --> 00:44:23,680
Speaker 1: I think it's that simple. And I think Texa A

922
00:44:23,719 --> 00:44:24,880
Speaker 1: and M is going to find a way to win

923
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: this game. I don't think it's gonna be easy. But

924
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:29,839
Speaker 1: that's uh my simple handing gap is if this ole

925
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: Miss offense is not operating at the level that it

926
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:36,440
Speaker 1: was earlier in the year, so many injuries, this Texas

927
00:44:36,440 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 1: A and M defense I think could slow them down,

928
00:44:39,800 --> 00:44:43,560
Speaker 1: especially that secondary not dealing with ole Misses with a

929
00:44:43,600 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 1: full deck and on the other side of the ball,

930
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,160
Speaker 1: because that is playing well enough, but how much is

931
00:44:47,160 --> 00:44:48,359
Speaker 1: he really gonna have to do here?

932
00:44:49,280 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 2: Are you kidding me?

933
00:44:50,239 --> 00:44:51,799
Speaker 4: Who kids this? We have?

934
00:44:54,200 --> 00:44:56,239
Speaker 1: Tex Am should be able to line up and run

935
00:44:56,280 --> 00:44:58,600
Speaker 1: the ball and have tons of success. What do you

936
00:44:58,640 --> 00:44:58,960
Speaker 1: see here?

937
00:44:59,400 --> 00:45:01,720
Speaker 2: K should wear a label on his helmet that says

938
00:45:01,960 --> 00:45:05,399
Speaker 2: use only as needed, sort of like some medication. You know. Listen,

939
00:45:05,440 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 2: the number was an auto play for me. It was

940
00:45:07,040 --> 00:45:09,040
Speaker 2: two and a half. It was a very much juice

941
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:12,040
Speaker 2: two and a half on Texas A and M. So

942
00:45:12,239 --> 00:45:14,640
Speaker 2: I paid the juice and got it up to three

943
00:45:14,880 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 2: miss on Old Miss, and I prowa rate this game

944
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:20,480
Speaker 2: as a pick, and I do plan on coming back

945
00:45:20,480 --> 00:45:23,839
Speaker 2: on the other side if the opportunity is there. And

946
00:45:23,920 --> 00:45:25,719
Speaker 2: it's just a for me, it was a trading game.

947
00:45:25,760 --> 00:45:27,640
Speaker 2: It wasn't a thing where I love Ole Miss to death,

948
00:45:27,640 --> 00:45:31,759
Speaker 2: because there are certainly hesitations with them. But you know,

949
00:45:32,040 --> 00:45:33,520
Speaker 2: at the same time, I could make a case for

950
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 2: why they're going to win this game. It should be

951
00:45:35,640 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 2: a scoring bonanza. Old Miss defense continues to have one

952
00:45:38,239 --> 00:45:40,480
Speaker 2: of the worst success rates in the nation and a

953
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:43,080
Speaker 2: big play prevention rank of one hundred and seventeen. This

954
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,480
Speaker 2: is not very good for your defense if you're the Rebels.

955
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 2: Because Isaiah Spiller and Devon A. Shane are just two

956
00:45:48,320 --> 00:45:51,360
Speaker 2: of the top twenty backs in FBS per PFF and

957
00:45:51,400 --> 00:45:55,120
Speaker 2: the category of elusiveness. Just take blocking out of it,

958
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 2: take everything out of it. How hard is a running

959
00:45:57,040 --> 00:45:58,840
Speaker 2: back to take down? These are two of the best

960
00:45:58,880 --> 00:46:02,360
Speaker 2: in college football. Zach Hauzada has looked better during this

961
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:04,880
Speaker 2: winning streak that they've had. He's had six turnover worthy

962
00:46:04,880 --> 00:46:07,600
Speaker 2: plays in the first three games. He's cleaned that up.

963
00:46:07,640 --> 00:46:09,719
Speaker 2: He's now had only six turnover worthy plays in the

964
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:13,520
Speaker 2: last six games, so he's making better decisions where But

965
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,480
Speaker 2: I mean that we talked about this during the Arkansas

966
00:46:15,520 --> 00:46:19,080
Speaker 2: game too, Like I got just burnt by my friends,

967
00:46:19,120 --> 00:46:22,239
Speaker 2: by my colleagues, by everybody for taking Texas A and

968
00:46:22,360 --> 00:46:24,240
Speaker 2: M in that Arkansas game. And then all of a sudden,

969
00:46:24,239 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 2: the real Texas A and M that I thought existed

970
00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 2: showed up because offensive line was hurt, spiller was hurt,

971
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:31,680
Speaker 2: and now everybody's healthy. Where Texas A and them gets

972
00:46:31,719 --> 00:46:35,160
Speaker 2: in trouble is finishing drives. So same thing I said

973
00:46:35,160 --> 00:46:38,839
Speaker 2: about Purdue. If the explosive aggie targets aren't scoring, that's

974
00:46:38,880 --> 00:46:40,880
Speaker 2: a plus for ole Miss because Texas A and M

975
00:46:40,920 --> 00:46:42,640
Speaker 2: is not the best of putting seven up on the board.

976
00:46:42,640 --> 00:46:45,239
Speaker 2: They settled for a lot of field goals. Now, as

977
00:46:45,320 --> 00:46:48,560
Speaker 2: for Matt Carral, I had to read between the lines

978
00:46:48,600 --> 00:46:51,319
Speaker 2: with Lane Kiffin's presser this week because I think he

979
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,120
Speaker 2: may be fully healthy back from that ankle injury. It's

980
00:46:54,160 --> 00:46:56,080
Speaker 2: been a couple of weeks now. And if you look

981
00:46:56,120 --> 00:46:59,880
Speaker 2: at the box score against Liberty, it says six rushing attempts. Well,

982
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:03,319
Speaker 2: that's not really true. That's what happens when he gets

983
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,480
Speaker 2: pressure and he moves anywhere outside the pocket. The ESPN

984
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,720
Speaker 2: box score is going to say that was a rushing attempt.

985
00:47:08,760 --> 00:47:10,960
Speaker 2: It was not a rushing attempt. He had zero designed

986
00:47:11,040 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 2: rushing attempts. They purposely went slow against Liberty and he

987
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,800
Speaker 2: purposely didn't leave the pocket. And if he is fully healthy,

988
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 2: we are right back up to nineteen seconds per play.

989
00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:23,640
Speaker 2: So the big handicap is the ole Miss offense going tempo.

990
00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 2: And when you listen to Lane Kiffin and his press

991
00:47:25,680 --> 00:47:28,560
Speaker 2: are on Monday, he said something that caught my ear.

992
00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,520
Speaker 2: He said, to beat a team like Texas A and M,

993
00:47:31,800 --> 00:47:35,320
Speaker 2: you have to play extremely fast, fast enough to execute

994
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:37,920
Speaker 2: when the wrong personnel is on the field. What does

995
00:47:37,960 --> 00:47:40,719
Speaker 2: that mean? Go deep, go deep into Texas A and

996
00:47:40,800 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 2: m's defensive coordinator, Mike Elcho and what he does. He

997
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,960
Speaker 2: runs a four to two sub. He runs a four

998
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,520
Speaker 2: to two five and standard downs first and second down,

999
00:47:50,520 --> 00:47:52,400
Speaker 2: and when it's third and long, he switches to a

1000
00:47:52,400 --> 00:47:55,120
Speaker 2: three to two six. If you're unfamiliar with those schemes,

1001
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:58,719
Speaker 2: are he pulls alignment, He adds a dime. Defensive back

1002
00:47:59,440 --> 00:48:01,759
Speaker 2: Ole Miss wants to catch that nip that in the

1003
00:48:01,800 --> 00:48:04,359
Speaker 2: bud from the substitutions, which means they have to go

1004
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:08,000
Speaker 2: as fast as possible. So Kivins, saying that that that's

1005
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:09,920
Speaker 2: the way that he has to attack Texas A and

1006
00:48:10,040 --> 00:48:13,080
Speaker 2: M tells me this tempo is going to be insane.

1007
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,800
Speaker 2: And if Coral's healthy and that ankles, what two three weeks?

1008
00:48:17,320 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 2: I mean, it's two three weeks. We're fine. Now we

1009
00:48:19,080 --> 00:48:22,560
Speaker 2: should be fine. So Keivin kind of tipped his hand

1010
00:48:22,600 --> 00:48:23,959
Speaker 2: there about what he's going to do in this game.

1011
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:26,480
Speaker 2: The game should be lined as a pick I took

1012
00:48:26,520 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 2: old Miss. I will buy back on A and M

1013
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:31,360
Speaker 2: during the game, live three or seven, whatever I can get.

1014
00:48:31,560 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 2: So I may be on the first half over here,

1015
00:48:33,880 --> 00:48:36,200
Speaker 2: but is the cow's oatam Mistakes going to happen if

1016
00:48:36,200 --> 00:48:37,920
Speaker 2: they try to rush things and they get down by

1017
00:48:37,960 --> 00:48:40,439
Speaker 2: a score or two. So ole miss for me right now,

1018
00:48:40,680 --> 00:48:42,520
Speaker 2: live in game, I'm coming back on A and M.

1019
00:48:43,000 --> 00:48:45,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't want A and M pregame like I don't.

1020
00:48:45,600 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 1: I mean I can get them. I think I can

1021
00:48:46,719 --> 00:48:48,480
Speaker 1: get them live and I don't think there's a ton

1022
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:51,279
Speaker 1: of value in the number. But I might join you

1023
00:48:51,440 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 1: on that's over. I'll have to look into that quote.

1024
00:48:55,520 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 1: But that's a good find. And yeah, it would make

1025
00:48:57,800 --> 00:49:00,560
Speaker 1: sense for them to do so with Texas A and

1026
00:49:00,640 --> 00:49:02,759
Speaker 1: M loving just to sub out their defense eleven and

1027
00:49:02,880 --> 00:49:04,359
Speaker 1: that's one of their biggest strengths. You can get those

1028
00:49:04,360 --> 00:49:06,080
Speaker 1: big guys in and you can get the pass rushers eve.

1029
00:49:06,440 --> 00:49:10,759
Speaker 1: So all right, let's move on to the ACC and

1030
00:49:11,040 --> 00:49:15,800
Speaker 1: a game that would likely determine the division.

1031
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:17,800
Speaker 2: You hate saying that, I'm a huge.

1032
00:49:19,520 --> 00:49:21,200
Speaker 1: You don't want Clemson in this at all.

1033
00:49:21,239 --> 00:49:22,919
Speaker 2: You don't even want to mention them? Do yet?

1034
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:26,600
Speaker 1: Yeah it makes me shrink, but after two just prayer

1035
00:49:26,640 --> 00:49:27,279
Speaker 1: wins in a row.

1036
00:49:27,480 --> 00:49:29,240
Speaker 2: I don't want to write the game. I'm not writing

1037
00:49:29,280 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 2: Clemson in the AEC Championship. I'm not doing it. You

1038
00:49:31,760 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 2: can have it.

1039
00:49:32,480 --> 00:49:36,040
Speaker 1: So NC State wake far'est two point favorite over under

1040
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 1: sixty six and a half. Uh, here's a difficult game.

1041
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:40,279
Speaker 1: This is a difficult game in the hand cut. In

1042
00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:43,280
Speaker 1: my opinion, so NC State their defense has been excellent,

1043
00:49:43,520 --> 00:49:45,920
Speaker 1: strength on strength there the wake Forest offense has been

1044
00:49:45,920 --> 00:49:50,239
Speaker 1: a juggernaut. Wake Farests defense is not a juggernaut, and

1045
00:49:50,280 --> 00:49:54,320
Speaker 1: the NC State offense is met. But the NC State defense,

1046
00:49:54,400 --> 00:49:57,640
Speaker 1: their numbers are ridiculous. But they're down. They were down

1047
00:49:57,640 --> 00:50:00,000
Speaker 1: four starters. They're probably done five. They lost another defense

1048
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:03,160
Speaker 1: the lineman. It looks like but you look at who

1049
00:50:03,360 --> 00:50:09,080
Speaker 1: NC State has played USF Miss State beat them by

1050
00:50:09,080 --> 00:50:15,440
Speaker 1: two touchdowns, Furman Clemson poverty offense, LA Tech, who they

1051
00:50:15,520 --> 00:50:21,120
Speaker 1: beat by seven at home. They played DC's backup. They

1052
00:50:21,160 --> 00:50:26,640
Speaker 1: played Miami at Miami's Miami's backup and lost. They played Louisville,

1053
00:50:26,760 --> 00:50:32,120
Speaker 1: they won by fifteen, but they they outscored them twenty

1054
00:50:32,160 --> 00:50:34,640
Speaker 1: one to three in the fourth quarter. They were out

1055
00:50:34,680 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 1: gaining four thirty four to three sixty one. But my

1056
00:50:38,719 --> 00:50:41,239
Speaker 1: point is, you know, then they played Florida State last

1057
00:50:41,239 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 1: week and dominated, but Florida State right before the game

1058
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,880
Speaker 1: as an outbreak of flu and Mackenzie Milton's in there obviously,

1059
00:50:46,920 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 1: because I bet Florida State with the assumption that Jordan

1060
00:50:50,760 --> 00:50:52,600
Speaker 1: Travers's going to play, so they play another backup, so

1061
00:50:52,640 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 1: they haven't really played murderers are of offenses. On the

1062
00:50:56,719 --> 00:51:00,879
Speaker 1: other side of the coin, Lake Forest hasn't played any

1063
00:51:00,880 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 1: good defenses, I mean, Virginia Old Dominion, Norfolk State, Florida State, Louisville,

1064
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:14,920
Speaker 1: Syracuse Army, Duke UNC. So what we're gonna find out?

1065
00:51:14,960 --> 00:51:20,160
Speaker 1: Which one something's got to give here? And I'm I

1066
00:51:20,280 --> 00:51:22,359
Speaker 1: keep going back and forth on this game. I don't

1067
00:51:22,360 --> 00:51:24,799
Speaker 1: think that there's a huge edge either way. I might

1068
00:51:24,880 --> 00:51:26,960
Speaker 1: just wait to jump in again. Lie, there probably would

1069
00:51:26,920 --> 00:51:28,920
Speaker 1: be an opportunity to get either one of these sides,

1070
00:51:29,280 --> 00:51:32,040
Speaker 1: given Wakes offense and Wakes defense. I might just eventually

1071
00:51:32,520 --> 00:51:35,719
Speaker 1: trust my boy Sam Hartman to get this done. And

1072
00:51:35,760 --> 00:51:38,080
Speaker 1: the NC State defensive injuries lost two to They lost

1073
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:40,640
Speaker 1: their state starting safety, two of their best linebackers, now

1074
00:51:40,640 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 1: two defensive linemen. I might just trust my boy Sam

1075
00:51:43,640 --> 00:51:45,719
Speaker 1: Hartman here. But it's really hard to handicap because the

1076
00:51:45,719 --> 00:51:47,680
Speaker 1: Wake Cards office been so good, but they haven't faced

1077
00:51:47,680 --> 00:51:50,160
Speaker 1: a good defense. The NC State defense been so good,

1078
00:51:50,360 --> 00:51:53,080
Speaker 1: but they haven't faced a high caliber offense and they

1079
00:51:53,160 --> 00:51:55,560
Speaker 1: faced a lot of backups. So what do you make

1080
00:51:55,600 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 1: of this?

1081
00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,319
Speaker 2: Yeah, really tough losses going on for ncas State. On

1082
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:00,480
Speaker 2: that defensive line, they are third in the nation and

1083
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:04,839
Speaker 2: defensive rushing success rate and the wolf Pack twenty first

1084
00:52:04,880 --> 00:52:06,879
Speaker 2: in the line yards on defense, so they've been really

1085
00:52:06,920 --> 00:52:09,360
Speaker 2: good against the run. Their pass rush is a different story.

1086
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:11,560
Speaker 2: Eighty first and pass rush, so they weren't going to

1087
00:52:11,600 --> 00:52:14,840
Speaker 2: get any pressure on Hartman anyways. Now Wake Forest defense,

1088
00:52:14,920 --> 00:52:16,799
Speaker 2: on the other hand, almost dead last in the nation

1089
00:52:16,920 --> 00:52:19,640
Speaker 2: in success rate. Anybody can run the ball in these guys,

1090
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:22,600
Speaker 2: but the problem is is NC State actually passes more

1091
00:52:22,600 --> 00:52:24,680
Speaker 2: than they run, and they're terrible at running the ball.

1092
00:52:24,680 --> 00:52:27,040
Speaker 2: They're eighty fourth in the nation and rushing success rate,

1093
00:52:27,120 --> 00:52:30,200
Speaker 2: so they are much more successful at passing the ball.

1094
00:52:30,400 --> 00:52:32,560
Speaker 2: They are fifth in the nation and havoc allowed, meaning

1095
00:52:32,560 --> 00:52:34,600
Speaker 2: they do not turn the ball over, they don't let

1096
00:52:34,640 --> 00:52:37,080
Speaker 2: people tackle them in the backfield, and they don't throw

1097
00:52:37,120 --> 00:52:39,319
Speaker 2: a lot of interceptions, which I think means NC State

1098
00:52:39,400 --> 00:52:42,279
Speaker 2: is going to be able to keep going in a

1099
00:52:42,480 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 2: slow grind. They're ninety fourth in tempo. What's the best

1100
00:52:46,080 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 2: way to beat Sam Hartman and wake Forest go as

1101
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:52,120
Speaker 2: slow as possible on offense and keep the wake Forest

1102
00:52:52,160 --> 00:52:55,480
Speaker 2: offense off the field, and that's where the handicap is.

1103
00:52:55,560 --> 00:52:58,279
Speaker 2: Sam Hartman is facing a three to three five defense here.

1104
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:00,920
Speaker 2: The last time he saw three five. Not that he

1105
00:53:00,960 --> 00:53:03,000
Speaker 2: isn't good enough to beat it. A lot of quarterbacks

1106
00:53:03,000 --> 00:53:04,880
Speaker 2: can't handle it three three five, but Hartman can. But

1107
00:53:04,920 --> 00:53:07,400
Speaker 2: the last time he saw it he went against Syracuse.

1108
00:53:08,280 --> 00:53:12,080
Speaker 2: The Orange limited Hartman to below national average and available

1109
00:53:12,160 --> 00:53:15,880
Speaker 2: yards below national average and methodical drives that means drives

1110
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:18,760
Speaker 2: at last ten plus plays and the Deeks had zero

1111
00:53:18,920 --> 00:53:22,080
Speaker 2: rushing attempts that went over twelve yards. It wasn't their

1112
00:53:22,120 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 2: best offensive performance. You'll look at the score and see

1113
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:27,760
Speaker 2: forty points, but it was not Wake Force's best performance

1114
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:30,880
Speaker 2: against a three three five of Syracuse. So the NC

1115
00:53:31,040 --> 00:53:34,000
Speaker 2: State injuries that may alleviate some of the problems here

1116
00:53:34,040 --> 00:53:35,880
Speaker 2: that Sam Hartman has. I think he's going to attack

1117
00:53:35,880 --> 00:53:37,560
Speaker 2: the line of scrimmage. I think he's going to attack

1118
00:53:37,560 --> 00:53:39,719
Speaker 2: the linebackers. I don't think they're going to get a

1119
00:53:39,719 --> 00:53:42,880
Speaker 2: whole lot of explosive plays against this NC State defense.

1120
00:53:43,239 --> 00:53:45,560
Speaker 2: I project the total at sixty we're at sixty six

1121
00:53:45,600 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 2: and a half. I think wake Force is I understand

1122
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:50,920
Speaker 2: what happened with North Carolina. Those are two teams that

1123
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:54,000
Speaker 2: are willing just to trade explosive plays and haymakers. That's

1124
00:53:54,000 --> 00:53:57,000
Speaker 2: not inc State's offense. NC State wants to control clock,

1125
00:53:57,320 --> 00:53:59,280
Speaker 2: they want to grind it out, they want their possessions

1126
00:53:59,280 --> 00:54:01,399
Speaker 2: to be long. And then on defense, they're not gonna

1127
00:54:01,400 --> 00:54:03,160
Speaker 2: allow any explosive players. At least they're going to try

1128
00:54:03,160 --> 00:54:05,160
Speaker 2: not to allow explosive plays. They'll allow everything in front

1129
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:07,080
Speaker 2: of them. And Sam Hartman has seen it three three

1130
00:54:07,120 --> 00:54:09,960
Speaker 2: five and it wasn't his best day against Syracuse. I'm

1131
00:54:09,960 --> 00:54:11,800
Speaker 2: taking the under here at sixty six and a half.

1132
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 1: Don't hate it all, right, final game here we can

1133
00:54:15,280 --> 00:54:22,399
Speaker 1: disagree here again Nevada, oh at San Diego State. When

1134
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 1: I say at, I mean it's in Carsonton, California, a

1135
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:30,960
Speaker 1: couple hours from campus. This game is enormous for the division.

1136
00:54:31,360 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 1: The winner will take over sole possession of first place.

1137
00:54:34,239 --> 00:54:36,640
Speaker 1: Now if they don't slip up again. The winner doesn't

1138
00:54:36,640 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 1: slip up again, we'll go onto the Mountain West Championship.

1139
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:42,240
Speaker 1: Huge aur Nevada futures, But Fresno's beat both these teams

1140
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 1: and they're one game behind. So if the winner of

1141
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:47,480
Speaker 1: this game slips up and Fresno wins out and they

1142
00:54:47,480 --> 00:54:50,560
Speaker 1: have an easy schedule, Fresno's going So it's gonna be

1143
00:54:51,239 --> 00:54:55,399
Speaker 1: an interesting race till the end. Here's my handed, Kevin,

1144
00:54:55,440 --> 00:54:57,600
Speaker 1: this game, and I wrote up this game. Look, San

1145
00:54:57,600 --> 00:55:01,160
Speaker 1: Diego State's offense stakes, let's just throw that out there.

1146
00:55:01,680 --> 00:55:04,759
Speaker 1: Bottom poverty offense and outside the top one hundred.

1147
00:55:04,760 --> 00:55:05,720
Speaker 2: Electric and vertical.

1148
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:09,080
Speaker 1: They can't. They cannot throw the ball at all. They're

1149
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:12,360
Speaker 1: bottom five and yards per passing, yards per game, bottom

1150
00:55:12,400 --> 00:55:16,800
Speaker 1: five and yards per attempt. This electric and vertical offense.

1151
00:55:17,560 --> 00:55:19,680
Speaker 1: It's a bad offense. What they try to do is

1152
00:55:19,760 --> 00:55:22,719
Speaker 1: lean on their running game with Bell their defense, and

1153
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,719
Speaker 1: then obviously they're all world punter. Their punter by the

1154
00:55:25,760 --> 00:55:31,000
Speaker 1: way we talked about it, he's only three quarterbacks in

1155
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:35,440
Speaker 1: college football have a higher EPA per pass than his

1156
00:55:35,560 --> 00:55:39,279
Speaker 1: EPA per punt. It he's worth about three points of

1157
00:55:39,360 --> 00:55:42,799
Speaker 1: the spread. You could argue four, maybe closer to four

1158
00:55:42,800 --> 00:55:44,440
Speaker 1: if you account for the fact that he's good on

1159
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:47,439
Speaker 1: kickoffs and he's good on field goals too. This guy's

1160
00:55:47,480 --> 00:55:49,400
Speaker 1: worth literally three or four points to spread. Now, granted,

1161
00:55:49,480 --> 00:55:52,880
Speaker 1: you said how then how the fucking a punter be

1162
00:55:52,880 --> 00:55:54,799
Speaker 1: worth four points of the spread. Well, if he was,

1163
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:59,200
Speaker 1: if he was on Alabama, he wouldn't be. But when

1164
00:55:59,239 --> 00:56:03,480
Speaker 1: you have a elite punter on a bad offense with

1165
00:56:03,560 --> 00:56:07,320
Speaker 1: a good defense, that means field position's even more important

1166
00:56:07,760 --> 00:56:10,520
Speaker 1: and you're punting a lot more so, Sanego says, punning

1167
00:56:10,560 --> 00:56:13,239
Speaker 1: all the time. So the amount like he impacts the game,

1168
00:56:13,840 --> 00:56:16,319
Speaker 1: they put ten like ten times a game, and he's

1169
00:56:16,360 --> 00:56:18,439
Speaker 1: flipping fields. Last speak of why he had a ninety

1170
00:56:18,520 --> 00:56:21,479
Speaker 1: yard punt in the air in the air. So what's

1171
00:56:21,520 --> 00:56:24,399
Speaker 1: really interesting is that he's averaging like close to fifty

1172
00:56:24,440 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 1: two yards per punt, the higher than the NFL season

1173
00:56:26,600 --> 00:56:29,360
Speaker 1: single season record, higher than the college single season record.

1174
00:56:29,520 --> 00:56:31,440
Speaker 1: I could go on and on and on. One of

1175
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:35,239
Speaker 1: the interesting things though, here is that he hasn't really

1176
00:56:35,239 --> 00:56:38,239
Speaker 1: faced many great punt returners. He did against Utah and

1177
00:56:38,280 --> 00:56:40,800
Speaker 1: Britain Kobe who took one in eighty through the house.

1178
00:56:41,520 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 1: My guy Romeo Dubbs, who in twenty eighteen is a freshman,

1179
00:56:44,840 --> 00:56:47,279
Speaker 1: he asked his coach to go in when he's a

1180
00:56:47,280 --> 00:56:49,320
Speaker 1: freshman in a blowout. He's liked, can I go in

1181
00:56:49,400 --> 00:56:51,720
Speaker 1: and return the punt? And his first ever punt return

1182
00:56:51,760 --> 00:56:54,360
Speaker 1: in college as a freshman, he took it to the house.

1183
00:56:54,760 --> 00:56:56,320
Speaker 1: He's one of the best punp returners in the country.

1184
00:56:56,320 --> 00:56:58,560
Speaker 1: I think about his top ten in putt returning yards.

1185
00:56:58,600 --> 00:57:01,879
Speaker 1: So if he can go way back and get one

1186
00:57:01,880 --> 00:57:04,040
Speaker 1: of these with some space, I can't wait to watch

1187
00:57:04,040 --> 00:57:07,239
Speaker 1: that chess match. The best college football plinning season in

1188
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:09,120
Speaker 1: college football history, going up against one of the best

1189
00:57:09,120 --> 00:57:11,640
Speaker 1: pumper turners in the nation should be a fascinating chess

1190
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 1: punch there. But when I look at this game, San

1191
00:57:14,040 --> 00:57:17,000
Speaker 1: Diego State can't throw the ball and you can't really

1192
00:57:17,000 --> 00:57:19,160
Speaker 1: throw it against Nevada. That's their strength. Their strength is

1193
00:57:19,200 --> 00:57:21,880
Speaker 1: getting after the passer their secondary. They have some good

1194
00:57:21,920 --> 00:57:23,840
Speaker 1: players in the secondary. They don't get supposed to play

1195
00:57:24,200 --> 00:57:26,440
Speaker 1: their weakness and Tanner's they can't throw it at all.

1196
00:57:26,640 --> 00:57:29,320
Speaker 1: They're no receivers that Lucas Johnson's like more of a runner.

1197
00:57:29,760 --> 00:57:31,880
Speaker 1: Just throw it out. San Diego State's not going to

1198
00:57:31,920 --> 00:57:34,120
Speaker 1: throw the ball. Well, so what Santago Sate wants? Who's

1199
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:37,040
Speaker 1: run the ball? They're you know, these two teams are

1200
00:57:37,080 --> 00:57:39,240
Speaker 1: polar options. By the way, Nevada wants to go fast

1201
00:57:39,240 --> 00:57:42,520
Speaker 1: and never run it. They're bottom five rush rate. San

1202
00:57:42,520 --> 00:57:45,400
Speaker 1: Diego State wants to go slow and always run it.

1203
00:57:45,600 --> 00:57:48,560
Speaker 1: They're top ten in rush rate, but if you look

1204
00:57:48,600 --> 00:57:51,720
Speaker 1: at the numbers, Nevada's run defense is horrendous, one hundred

1205
00:57:51,720 --> 00:57:54,040
Speaker 1: and twenty fifth, the bottom five basically in line yards,

1206
00:57:54,040 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 1: opportunity rate, rush success rate. I could go on and on.

1207
00:57:57,640 --> 00:57:59,400
Speaker 1: So you'd say, Okay, Santego State's gonna be able to

1208
00:57:59,400 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 1: march down the field. Well, look, the San Diego State

1209
00:58:02,960 --> 00:58:06,600
Speaker 1: running offense has been about average. It's deteriorating, man, I

1210
00:58:06,640 --> 00:58:10,800
Speaker 1: mean it is. There's every team now is just loading

1211
00:58:10,840 --> 00:58:13,640
Speaker 1: the box and just saying, I dare you to throw

1212
00:58:13,760 --> 00:58:15,800
Speaker 1: and they can't. If you look at what San Diego

1213
00:58:15,840 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 1: State has done over the last four games against Air Force,

1214
00:58:20,080 --> 00:58:23,600
Speaker 1: forty carries one hundred and fifty seven yards, Fresno thirty

1215
00:58:23,600 --> 00:58:26,320
Speaker 1: three carries one hundred and sixty five yards. Not bad.

1216
00:58:27,040 --> 00:58:31,240
Speaker 1: San Jose State thirty six carries for seventy yards. Against

1217
00:58:31,240 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 1: Hawaii Poverty Run Di forty three carries for one hundred

1218
00:58:35,240 --> 00:58:38,120
Speaker 1: and twenty eight yards last week. I mean, everyone is

1219
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:40,240
Speaker 1: just saying you can't throw it. I don't care. So

1220
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:43,800
Speaker 1: I actually think that Nevada will be a little bit

1221
00:58:43,800 --> 00:58:46,120
Speaker 1: better against run. Now, San Diego State will have some success,

1222
00:58:46,160 --> 00:58:47,840
Speaker 1: but this is just a bad offense on the other

1223
00:58:47,880 --> 00:58:51,720
Speaker 1: side of the ball. Nevada can't run it at all,

1224
00:58:51,760 --> 00:58:53,480
Speaker 1: and you can't run it on Santaego's either, So just

1225
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:55,440
Speaker 1: take that out of the equation. So is the San

1226
00:58:55,440 --> 00:58:59,640
Speaker 1: Diego State secondary capable of slowing down Carson Strong and

1227
00:59:00,120 --> 00:59:03,200
Speaker 1: the Nevada offense. I don't know if we can say

1228
00:59:03,280 --> 00:59:06,400
Speaker 1: for sure, but I can tell you that San Diego

1229
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:11,840
Speaker 1: State has faced absolute poverty passing offenses. And I will

1230
00:59:11,840 --> 00:59:14,440
Speaker 1: just do passing yards per game. Arizona eighty sixth Utah

1231
00:59:14,720 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 1: eighty fifth, and that's Brewer before he transferred. Verizon came

1232
00:59:18,160 --> 00:59:19,800
Speaker 1: in and then threw three touchdown passes. By the way,

1233
00:59:19,920 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 1: New Mexico one hundred and twenty six, Air Force one

1234
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:25,440
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty nine, San Jose State and their backup

1235
00:59:25,480 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 1: seventy six, Hawaii fiftieth, and that doesn't include thousand. It's

1236
00:59:30,160 --> 00:59:33,160
Speaker 1: the only top forty passing offenses they faced. New Mexico

1237
00:59:33,280 --> 00:59:36,520
Speaker 1: State threw for over three hundred yards against them, Fresno

1238
00:59:36,600 --> 00:59:38,640
Speaker 1: State beat them by double digits, and j Caner threw

1239
00:59:38,680 --> 00:59:42,240
Speaker 1: for over three hundred yards. I think Carson Strong can

1240
00:59:42,280 --> 00:59:43,920
Speaker 1: make enough throws and you're not gonna need a lot

1241
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:46,200
Speaker 1: of points to beat San Diego State. I think that

1242
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:49,600
Speaker 1: they can stack the box, make enough stops, and their

1243
00:59:49,640 --> 00:59:52,480
Speaker 1: offense is just a little bit better, is more explosive.

1244
00:59:53,080 --> 00:59:56,200
Speaker 1: But it's one big butt here that I'm waiting on.

1245
00:59:56,680 --> 00:59:59,880
Speaker 1: I need Cole Turner to play. So Cole Turners and

1246
01:00:00,040 --> 01:00:03,520
Speaker 1: NFL tight end, He's Romeo Dubbs is there exposed to

1247
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:07,480
Speaker 1: play guy. Cole Turner is the reliable red zone target,

1248
01:00:07,520 --> 01:00:09,760
Speaker 1: the reliable third down target. He's one of the best

1249
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:12,680
Speaker 1: tight ends in college football. He got rocked last week

1250
01:00:12,680 --> 01:00:16,040
Speaker 1: against San Jose State and a dirty, dirty targeting hit

1251
01:00:16,600 --> 01:00:17,880
Speaker 1: and he was out of the game. He's like a

1252
01:00:17,920 --> 01:00:20,240
Speaker 1: cust protocoll. Is he gonna play? I don't know. So

1253
01:00:20,280 --> 01:00:23,240
Speaker 1: I'm waiting on this because he is huge in this game.

1254
01:00:23,720 --> 01:00:25,920
Speaker 1: But I show value in Invada. There's not much of

1255
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 1: them field here. It's in Carson, California. But I know

1256
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:30,840
Speaker 1: you're going to disagree. What do you got?

1257
01:00:31,200 --> 01:00:32,840
Speaker 2: You said it all, and I think you made a

1258
01:00:32,840 --> 01:00:35,520
Speaker 2: case for San Diego State. I mean, you pointed out

1259
01:00:35,560 --> 01:00:38,320
Speaker 2: a lot of flaws with Nevada. You pointed out a

1260
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:41,960
Speaker 2: lot of reasons why they won't win this game, So listen.

1261
01:00:42,040 --> 01:00:43,800
Speaker 2: The first bet I made with San Diego State is

1262
01:00:43,800 --> 01:00:46,040
Speaker 2: a pick. When it opened up, that was a no brainer.

1263
01:00:46,360 --> 01:00:48,360
Speaker 2: It's a game even without home field advantage. I made

1264
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:52,200
Speaker 2: two point seven the total. For everybody wondering in suspense,

1265
01:00:52,520 --> 01:00:54,480
Speaker 2: I make forty five and a half, which is exactly

1266
01:00:54,480 --> 01:00:57,040
Speaker 2: where the market is, so there won't be any overs here.

1267
01:00:57,480 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 3: As tech overs.

1268
01:00:59,040 --> 01:01:02,200
Speaker 2: No use in me getting in trouble on Twitter late

1269
01:01:02,240 --> 01:01:05,720
Speaker 2: Saturday night unless it's nineteen Live and I decided taking over.

1270
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:07,960
Speaker 2: But listen, there's big advantages on both sides of the

1271
01:01:07,960 --> 01:01:10,720
Speaker 2: ball for San Diego State. From what I see San

1272
01:01:10,760 --> 01:01:13,040
Speaker 2: Diego State, I don't care if you load the box

1273
01:01:13,080 --> 01:01:16,840
Speaker 2: with nine to ten or eleven players. San Diego State

1274
01:01:16,960 --> 01:01:18,440
Speaker 2: is going to get to the line of scrimmage and

1275
01:01:18,440 --> 01:01:20,919
Speaker 2: they're gonna get two yards. And if that's the way,

1276
01:01:20,920 --> 01:01:22,680
Speaker 2: this game is gonna play out until they get down

1277
01:01:22,720 --> 01:01:24,440
Speaker 2: to the red zone. They're one hundred.

1278
01:01:24,240 --> 01:01:25,960
Speaker 1: Yards, so they're gonna be punt. They're gonna be punning

1279
01:01:25,960 --> 01:01:26,720
Speaker 1: on fourth and four.

1280
01:01:28,440 --> 01:01:30,880
Speaker 2: The world's gonna freak out when Matta Raza doesn't actually

1281
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:33,880
Speaker 2: punt and just runs and converts a fourth down by himself.

1282
01:01:34,080 --> 01:01:36,479
Speaker 1: Just San Diego State team, by the way, has won.

1283
01:01:36,800 --> 01:01:39,360
Speaker 1: They beat four of the worst teams in the country,

1284
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 1: including thousand and there are other five wins. They lost

1285
01:01:43,080 --> 01:01:45,080
Speaker 1: the Fresno the only team with the competent quarterback, lost

1286
01:01:45,120 --> 01:01:49,360
Speaker 1: by double digits. The only other games that they've won were,

1287
01:01:49,880 --> 01:01:53,520
Speaker 1: you know, they beat Utah's backup in triple overtime. They

1288
01:01:53,520 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 1: beat San Jose States back up in double overtime. They

1289
01:01:56,800 --> 01:02:00,360
Speaker 1: beat Air Force by seven. I mean, they've won every

1290
01:02:00,400 --> 01:02:03,640
Speaker 1: single game, but they just be Hawaii by seven with

1291
01:02:03,760 --> 01:02:06,640
Speaker 1: forty carries for seventy yards. This is gonna be a

1292
01:02:06,760 --> 01:02:10,120
Speaker 1: close game, and I think Nevada's offense can make enough plays.

1293
01:02:10,120 --> 01:02:12,000
Speaker 1: And Nevada wins for the fourth year in a row

1294
01:02:12,040 --> 01:02:13,920
Speaker 1: against San Diego State in a game in the twenties

1295
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:15,560
Speaker 1: by four or us.

1296
01:02:15,840 --> 01:02:18,080
Speaker 2: We need to change our camping style after all these years,

1297
01:02:18,120 --> 01:02:19,840
Speaker 2: find the team with the horseshoe up their ass and

1298
01:02:19,880 --> 01:02:21,520
Speaker 2: start betting on them, like we never do that. We

1299
01:02:21,560 --> 01:02:23,919
Speaker 2: always pay attention to the numbers. In San Diego State

1300
01:02:24,440 --> 01:02:26,720
Speaker 2: is that team that regression may come next year, but

1301
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:29,520
Speaker 2: right now, Brady Hoak, he's getting all those close calls,

1302
01:02:29,520 --> 01:02:32,560
Speaker 2: but Mattaresa, you know, putting Carson Strong on the one

1303
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:35,000
Speaker 2: yard line every time, it's a cheat code. He's a

1304
01:02:35,000 --> 01:02:39,080
Speaker 2: field position cheat code. So listen my numbers. Make it

1305
01:02:39,120 --> 01:02:41,560
Speaker 2: two point seven. It gets a little dicey at three.

1306
01:02:41,720 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 2: This could be a nine to seven ball game. But

1307
01:02:44,000 --> 01:02:46,280
Speaker 2: you know in two and a half, yeah, San Diego State.

1308
01:02:46,920 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna buy off of my pick on San

1309
01:02:49,240 --> 01:02:50,520
Speaker 2: Diego State. They're winning this game.

1310
01:02:51,040 --> 01:02:53,240
Speaker 1: Romeo Dobs takes one of the house heard of here first,

1311
01:02:53,520 --> 01:02:59,400
Speaker 1: All right, good stuff there, and before we continue, I

1312
01:02:59,440 --> 01:03:01,600
Speaker 1: do have a quick reminder to check out our friends

1313
01:03:01,640 --> 01:03:03,720
Speaker 1: three Men Weave, kyleic You and Jim Rooton Matt Cox,

1314
01:03:03,760 --> 01:03:06,600
Speaker 1: who are releasing bonus college basketball betting episodes every Wednesday

1315
01:03:06,640 --> 01:03:09,320
Speaker 1: morning here on the BBOC podcast. So if you're into

1316
01:03:09,320 --> 01:03:11,720
Speaker 1: betting college hoops, check out this week's episode. All right,

1317
01:03:11,800 --> 01:03:14,880
Speaker 1: let's go speed round quickly. I'll throw out a couple

1318
01:03:14,880 --> 01:03:18,640
Speaker 1: of games here. Notre Dame in Virginia, Virginia. What offense

1319
01:03:18,680 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 1: second EPA for play top fifteen in the EPA run

1320
01:03:21,880 --> 01:03:25,960
Speaker 1: end pass, Brendan arm. Their offense is electric. Kyle Hamilton,

1321
01:03:25,960 --> 01:03:27,760
Speaker 1: I don't think it's gonna play for Notre Dame. Notre

1322
01:03:27,840 --> 01:03:31,480
Speaker 1: Dame's offense is rolling now with Karen Williams. Virginia might

1323
01:03:31,520 --> 01:03:33,240
Speaker 1: have the worst defense of the country. They're one hundred

1324
01:03:33,280 --> 01:03:34,800
Speaker 1: and twenty eight, one hundred and twenty at the depa

1325
01:03:34,880 --> 01:03:37,600
Speaker 1: to play this is this line's too high, this total's

1326
01:03:37,600 --> 01:03:40,480
Speaker 1: too low. This is over sixty four. This is Virginia

1327
01:03:40,480 --> 01:03:43,640
Speaker 1: plus five and f If Brendan Armstrong's playing, don't know

1328
01:03:43,640 --> 01:03:46,880
Speaker 1: if he's playing. Baranco Mendonol said some and it didn't

1329
01:03:46,880 --> 01:03:49,560
Speaker 1: look great with his ribs. You gotta wait on that news.

1330
01:03:49,560 --> 01:03:52,880
Speaker 1: Otherwise it's a freshman playing. I also throw out Minnesota

1331
01:03:52,880 --> 01:03:57,439
Speaker 1: at Iowa. Padia, we'll start for Iowa. These are two

1332
01:03:57,480 --> 01:04:01,920
Speaker 1: slow teams. Minnesota is Defen's been really good. You can't

1333
01:04:01,960 --> 01:04:05,280
Speaker 1: run against them. Do you trust this Padilla freshman to throw?

1334
01:04:05,640 --> 01:04:09,520
Speaker 1: Do you trust Morgan to throw against Iowa with Briley

1335
01:04:09,560 --> 01:04:11,640
Speaker 1: moss back. I don't see how this goes over thirty

1336
01:04:11,680 --> 01:04:13,160
Speaker 1: seven and a half. It's like a thirteen to ten

1337
01:04:13,240 --> 01:04:16,120
Speaker 1: game without Flukes. I like the under there. I know

1338
01:04:16,200 --> 01:04:19,320
Speaker 1: that you want to maybe touch on Wazoo Oregon in Arkansas.

1339
01:04:19,080 --> 01:04:23,480
Speaker 2: Lsu Woo Pig Sulley, Yeah, real quick, on Arkansas LSU.

1340
01:04:23,560 --> 01:04:25,480
Speaker 2: I mean, this is crazy respect to see the Hogs

1341
01:04:25,520 --> 01:04:27,600
Speaker 2: listed as a favorite in Baton Rouge. I mean the

1342
01:04:27,600 --> 01:04:30,920
Speaker 2: game against Mississippi State was sloppy, a ton of penalties,

1343
01:04:31,040 --> 01:04:34,800
Speaker 2: miscues and execution. Mississippi State passing attack took advantage of

1344
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:38,120
Speaker 2: an Arkansas secondary that doesn't have Jalen catalog. The big

1345
01:04:38,160 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 2: news for LSU is this new blitz package they unleashed

1346
01:04:40,680 --> 01:04:43,760
Speaker 2: on Alabama. They overloaded certain sides of the offensive line.

1347
01:04:44,240 --> 01:04:46,760
Speaker 2: Sometimes they just rushed three and dropped eight. Sometimes they

1348
01:04:46,800 --> 01:04:48,640
Speaker 2: disguised a four to three and let Mike Jones a

1349
01:04:48,680 --> 01:04:51,560
Speaker 2: transfer and Clemson just stunt up the middle. That's going

1350
01:04:51,640 --> 01:04:53,120
Speaker 2: to be a heck of a test for the Arkansas

1351
01:04:53,160 --> 01:04:55,840
Speaker 2: offensive line, but that's the name of the game when

1352
01:04:55,880 --> 01:04:59,360
Speaker 2: you want to get kJ Jefferson in tro pressured and

1353
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:02,360
Speaker 2: making bad decisions. As far as the run game goes,

1354
01:05:02,560 --> 01:05:06,520
Speaker 2: LSU stuffed fourteen of twenty two attempts by Alabama. Dominie

1355
01:05:06,560 --> 01:05:08,560
Speaker 2: Johnson is a great running back for Arkansas, and we

1356
01:05:08,640 --> 01:05:09,960
Speaker 2: have a lot of guys that can run the ball.

1357
01:05:10,000 --> 01:05:13,360
Speaker 2: But LSU is playing some all of a sudden, they're

1358
01:05:13,360 --> 01:05:16,400
Speaker 2: playing defense from a rushing perspective and from a blitz perspective.

1359
01:05:16,720 --> 01:05:20,200
Speaker 2: Oh and guess who comes back. Cornell Flott shut down

1360
01:05:20,240 --> 01:05:23,160
Speaker 2: corner coming back for LSU. He is the next generation

1361
01:05:23,200 --> 01:05:26,200
Speaker 2: of shutdown corners for the Tigers. You can expect him

1362
01:05:26,240 --> 01:05:28,840
Speaker 2: to go one on one with Treylon Burks, Gonna keep

1363
01:05:28,880 --> 01:05:32,720
Speaker 2: him limited. The other news for LSU, Garrett Nusmier, the

1364
01:05:32,720 --> 01:05:35,400
Speaker 2: freshman with the cannon arm, is gonna play. We were

1365
01:05:35,400 --> 01:05:39,000
Speaker 2: scouting this kid in the summer. Coacho called him dynamite,

1366
01:05:39,040 --> 01:05:41,320
Speaker 2: that he has the it factor. The problem is he's

1367
01:05:41,360 --> 01:05:43,680
Speaker 2: got too much Brett Farvin him. He will try to

1368
01:05:43,680 --> 01:05:45,880
Speaker 2: throw into windows that aren't there, but a just an

1369
01:05:45,920 --> 01:05:48,200
Speaker 2: absolute cannon of an arm. And that's going up against

1370
01:05:48,200 --> 01:05:50,920
Speaker 2: an Arkansas secondary missing one of their best players for

1371
01:05:50,960 --> 01:05:53,760
Speaker 2: the rest of the season. I think this is way

1372
01:05:53,800 --> 01:05:56,360
Speaker 2: too much respect for Arkansas being a favorite down of

1373
01:05:56,400 --> 01:05:58,760
Speaker 2: Baton Rouge for an LSU team that has not given

1374
01:05:58,840 --> 01:06:02,840
Speaker 2: up whatsoever. I'm taking LSU money line. In the first half,

1375
01:06:03,160 --> 01:06:06,240
Speaker 2: the spreads an overreaction to Arkansas being Bowl eligible, the

1376
01:06:06,320 --> 01:06:10,320
Speaker 2: perceived notion that Coacho isn't has mailed it in. He hasn't. No,

1377
01:06:10,480 --> 01:06:12,440
Speaker 2: there would be no shellar break and beating or control

1378
01:06:12,480 --> 01:06:14,040
Speaker 2: They haven't beaten anybody in a long time.

1379
01:06:14,240 --> 01:06:16,880
Speaker 3: So we're supposed to win the football game, there's no

1380
01:06:16,960 --> 01:06:17,640
Speaker 3: question about that.

1381
01:06:18,040 --> 01:06:20,320
Speaker 2: Not sure what happens full game. Ls who's gonna win

1382
01:06:20,320 --> 01:06:24,320
Speaker 2: this first half? By the way, Arkansas, they have lost

1383
01:06:24,320 --> 01:06:27,760
Speaker 2: the first half four games in a row, four SEC

1384
01:06:27,800 --> 01:06:30,960
Speaker 2: games in a row. They were trailing at halftime. LSU

1385
01:06:31,000 --> 01:06:32,080
Speaker 2: money line first half.

1386
01:06:32,640 --> 01:06:34,880
Speaker 1: So Sam Pitman doesn't even ready to play. The only

1387
01:06:34,960 --> 01:06:38,440
Speaker 1: thing that I would be concerned about there is just

1388
01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:41,760
Speaker 1: an LSU left down, Like they put so much into

1389
01:06:41,760 --> 01:06:45,760
Speaker 1: that Alabama game. Now granted it's at home, but didn't

1390
01:06:45,760 --> 01:06:48,840
Speaker 1: play they were right there, like do they just are

1391
01:06:48,840 --> 01:06:50,920
Speaker 1: they just a little flat?

1392
01:06:51,080 --> 01:06:52,960
Speaker 2: But theoose Myer kid is fired up. If you know

1393
01:06:53,000 --> 01:06:55,880
Speaker 2: anything about this new smier kid for LSU, his parents

1394
01:06:55,880 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 2: and coach O have been on the same page about

1395
01:06:57,680 --> 01:06:59,880
Speaker 2: burning his red shirt, about when he's gonna get playing.

1396
01:07:00,600 --> 01:07:02,880
Speaker 2: They said, we do not want our kid playing until

1397
01:07:02,920 --> 01:07:05,640
Speaker 2: he gets serious playing time. So this this kid is

1398
01:07:05,680 --> 01:07:07,520
Speaker 2: a huge change of pace for Max Johnson.

1399
01:07:07,840 --> 01:07:10,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, does he get confused against the argus all day?

1400
01:07:10,440 --> 01:07:12,000
Speaker 1: That's another thing to be worried about. But no, but

1401
01:07:12,040 --> 01:07:16,640
Speaker 1: no Catalan is big anythink on Wazoo Oregon, which if

1402
01:07:16,720 --> 01:07:20,400
Speaker 1: Washington State wins this game, they will leap into first

1403
01:07:20,440 --> 01:07:25,680
Speaker 1: place in the PAC twelve North fourteen point dogs against Oregon.

1404
01:07:26,000 --> 01:07:28,000
Speaker 2: I would not be surprised to see Washington State win

1405
01:07:28,040 --> 01:07:30,280
Speaker 2: this game. First off, it's the PAC twelve. Second off,

1406
01:07:31,200 --> 01:07:33,400
Speaker 2: the way that you beat Oregon is to run the ball.

1407
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:35,840
Speaker 2: And then you say, well, this is Washington State. They

1408
01:07:35,920 --> 01:07:39,160
Speaker 2: passed the ball all the time. They ran more than

1409
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:41,320
Speaker 2: two times two and a half times more than they

1410
01:07:41,360 --> 01:07:43,920
Speaker 2: passed the ball against Arizona State. I understand there was

1411
01:07:43,960 --> 01:07:46,160
Speaker 2: five turnovers in that game and the Sun Devil's pissed

1412
01:07:46,200 --> 01:07:50,240
Speaker 2: it away. But Max Borgie is now after like being

1413
01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:52,760
Speaker 2: I don't know where he's been, like if he's been

1414
01:07:52,800 --> 01:07:54,480
Speaker 2: locked up in a cave for two years. But all

1415
01:07:54,520 --> 01:07:57,000
Speaker 2: of a sudden, Max Borgi is getting carries again. And

1416
01:07:57,040 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 2: that is the way that you beat Washington That's when

1417
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:02,520
Speaker 2: you beat Oregon is you have to run the ball Wazoo.

1418
01:08:02,800 --> 01:08:05,040
Speaker 2: Something's going on up there. They're playing hard for their

1419
01:08:05,080 --> 01:08:07,760
Speaker 2: interim coach, and Oregon is not the kind of team

1420
01:08:07,800 --> 01:08:10,720
Speaker 2: that covers double digit spreads at home. This is Sandwich

1421
01:08:10,720 --> 01:08:14,240
Speaker 2: fun Monster game at Rice Cycles next week. Washington state

1422
01:08:14,280 --> 01:08:16,080
Speaker 2: to cover. I can see it in the market. There's

1423
01:08:16,120 --> 01:08:18,120
Speaker 2: some short money knocking this down to thirteen and a half.

1424
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:20,479
Speaker 2: Wouldn't be surprised if they got this home.

1425
01:08:21,160 --> 01:08:26,800
Speaker 1: We sure have a lot of sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches, sandwiches.

1426
01:08:26,840 --> 01:08:30,080
Speaker 2: And so are the strangest location sandwiches I've ever seen.

1427
01:08:30,520 --> 01:08:33,719
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on. That would be something. Let's

1428
01:08:33,760 --> 01:08:38,839
Speaker 1: move on to the stick of the week. Smelly, smelly, smelly.

1429
01:08:39,439 --> 01:08:42,800
Speaker 2: It's the smell. It's quite pungent. Dude, plug your nose.

1430
01:08:43,439 --> 01:08:44,600
Speaker 1: It's stinks.

1431
01:08:45,240 --> 01:08:47,760
Speaker 3: This is your stink of the week.

1432
01:08:51,120 --> 01:08:55,920
Speaker 1: Smell, stink of the week. Fishiest line out there. It's

1433
01:08:55,960 --> 01:08:58,320
Speaker 1: gotta be Wisconsin lane twenty four and a half. Who

1434
01:08:58,320 --> 01:09:00,160
Speaker 1: wants to light twenty four and a half points with

1435
01:09:00,160 --> 01:09:02,960
Speaker 1: with Wisconsin? I think that's the side. And they're telling

1436
01:09:03,000 --> 01:09:04,680
Speaker 1: you that I will to play twenty four and a

1437
01:09:04,720 --> 01:09:08,840
Speaker 1: half with grat Mertz. They Northwest probably get shut out.

1438
01:09:08,840 --> 01:09:10,639
Speaker 1: This Wisconsin team's rolling right now.

1439
01:09:10,960 --> 01:09:13,120
Speaker 2: Well, I think the important thing is Chess Malucy is

1440
01:09:13,200 --> 01:09:16,000
Speaker 2: questionable for this game. He looks like he is not

1441
01:09:16,080 --> 01:09:18,960
Speaker 2: going to play, and you would say, well, that's bad

1442
01:09:19,000 --> 01:09:21,880
Speaker 2: for Wisconsin, right because chess Mlucy is the guy that

1443
01:09:22,000 --> 01:09:24,080
Speaker 2: likes to line up and try to run everybody over.

1444
01:09:24,200 --> 01:09:26,840
Speaker 2: Braylen Allen is not getting enough credit. That kid went

1445
01:09:27,000 --> 01:09:30,000
Speaker 2: crazy last week against Rutgers. Is the reason they put

1446
01:09:30,080 --> 01:09:31,680
Speaker 2: up a fifty burger. And if he's going to get

1447
01:09:31,680 --> 01:09:35,640
Speaker 2: all the carries in this game, that kid's legit. I

1448
01:09:35,640 --> 01:09:38,599
Speaker 2: don't know where he's been. The Jalen Burger is out.

1449
01:09:39,040 --> 01:09:41,600
Speaker 2: You know we got we got Chess Mlucy on the sidelines.

1450
01:09:41,680 --> 01:09:44,200
Speaker 2: This bradyll Ally kid is legit. You want to know

1451
01:09:44,280 --> 01:09:45,160
Speaker 2: my stake of the week?

1452
01:09:45,280 --> 01:09:45,519
Speaker 1: Yep?

1453
01:09:45,880 --> 01:09:48,360
Speaker 2: How the sam hell is Clemson minus forty one and

1454
01:09:48,400 --> 01:09:51,240
Speaker 2: a total of fifty one? How are they scoring forty

1455
01:09:51,240 --> 01:09:53,360
Speaker 2: two points? Are they scoring forty? How is this total

1456
01:09:53,400 --> 01:09:57,160
Speaker 2: fifty one? I'm just talking from a stink perspective. I

1457
01:09:57,200 --> 01:09:59,479
Speaker 2: didn't know Clemson was capable of scoring forty two points

1458
01:09:59,479 --> 01:10:01,280
Speaker 2: in a game. I mean you look at you look

1459
01:10:01,280 --> 01:10:03,080
Speaker 2: at the box score, like DJ finally picked it up

1460
01:10:03,120 --> 01:10:04,760
Speaker 2: and finally found some receivers. But it's still like a

1461
01:10:04,800 --> 01:10:08,320
Speaker 2: fifty percent completion rate. I know it's yukon, but I

1462
01:10:08,320 --> 01:10:10,240
Speaker 2: don't know how this game is getting over fifty one.

1463
01:10:10,240 --> 01:10:12,280
Speaker 2: And I don't know how Clemson is covering forty one

1464
01:10:12,320 --> 01:10:14,200
Speaker 2: because I didn't know they were capable of scoring forty

1465
01:10:14,200 --> 01:10:16,479
Speaker 2: two points. That's the grossest line of the week.

1466
01:10:16,680 --> 01:10:18,439
Speaker 1: Well, I had something in store for you later. But

1467
01:10:18,479 --> 01:10:20,320
Speaker 1: let's get before get out of here. Let's go three

1468
01:10:20,400 --> 01:10:23,360
Speaker 1: and out.

1469
01:10:22,200 --> 01:10:27,160
Speaker 4: Well, let's make it a quick three and out, all right.

1470
01:10:27,320 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 1: Before we go first down Friday night lights.

1471
01:10:30,680 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 2: That's here, gentlemen, clear eyes, full hearts. Let's go play

1472
01:10:35,000 --> 01:10:35,519
Speaker 2: some football.

1473
01:10:36,600 --> 01:10:41,960
Speaker 1: Wyoming at Boise Boise fourteen point favorite since he at USF. Gross.

1474
01:10:42,320 --> 01:10:44,680
Speaker 1: I think Wyoming's too many points here. We have to

1475
01:10:44,720 --> 01:10:45,120
Speaker 1: take them.

1476
01:10:45,360 --> 01:10:47,679
Speaker 2: I don't know what's going on with Wyoming. They're they're

1477
01:10:47,720 --> 01:10:50,080
Speaker 2: covering games. They were a three point underdog when I

1478
01:10:50,080 --> 01:10:51,720
Speaker 2: thought they should have been a three point favorite, and

1479
01:10:51,760 --> 01:10:54,400
Speaker 2: that was an easy win. Now it's a game where

1480
01:10:54,400 --> 01:10:57,680
Speaker 2: I project them to be seven point six underdogs to

1481
01:10:57,760 --> 01:11:01,360
Speaker 2: Boise State. Going to Boise State, a team that historically

1482
01:11:01,520 --> 01:11:05,040
Speaker 2: doesn't really cover that well on the blue turf. And

1483
01:11:05,120 --> 01:11:07,439
Speaker 2: so you know, when you look at the defensive line metrics,

1484
01:11:07,439 --> 01:11:10,040
Speaker 2: Boise's one hundred and fourteenth in offensive rushing success rate,

1485
01:11:10,200 --> 01:11:12,440
Speaker 2: they're not gonna have any luck running the ball whatsoever.

1486
01:11:12,760 --> 01:11:15,840
Speaker 2: And then Wyoming's fifth and coverage. It's again. I don't

1487
01:11:15,880 --> 01:11:17,600
Speaker 2: know what is going on with the odds makers and

1488
01:11:17,640 --> 01:11:20,400
Speaker 2: the way that they are lining Wyoming. I will be

1489
01:11:20,479 --> 01:11:24,040
Speaker 2: on Wyoming here. Cincinnati, South Florida stuck. I don't know

1490
01:11:24,040 --> 01:11:26,320
Speaker 2: how we're betting. I don't know how anybody's betting Cincinnati.

1491
01:11:26,360 --> 01:11:28,799
Speaker 2: At the same time, Timmy McClain is back, looks healthy,

1492
01:11:29,520 --> 01:11:31,240
Speaker 2: running the ball pretty well here. I'm trying to make

1493
01:11:31,280 --> 01:11:33,640
Speaker 2: a case for South Florida. The number, yeah, this is

1494
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:37,559
Speaker 2: a number that I projected Cincinnati minus twenty on the road.

1495
01:11:37,600 --> 01:11:40,559
Speaker 2: We're sitting at twenty three. Finally, odds makers are figuring

1496
01:11:40,560 --> 01:11:42,040
Speaker 2: out that they just can't put a tax on a

1497
01:11:42,080 --> 01:11:44,720
Speaker 2: team that's close to making the college football playoff. There's

1498
01:11:44,840 --> 01:11:47,439
Speaker 2: value on it. I think, you know, down to twenty one.

1499
01:11:47,600 --> 01:11:50,559
Speaker 2: I bet you it moves pregame down to about twenty

1500
01:11:50,560 --> 01:11:54,320
Speaker 2: one and a half for twenty two. So listen, you know,

1501
01:11:54,479 --> 01:11:57,800
Speaker 2: Timmy McClain's had some really big showings there. They have

1502
01:11:57,880 --> 01:12:00,639
Speaker 2: busted some big plays this year on offense, and they're

1503
01:12:00,640 --> 01:12:02,240
Speaker 2: playing much better the second half of the season they

1504
01:12:02,240 --> 01:12:03,800
Speaker 2: were the first half of the season. Their defense is

1505
01:12:03,800 --> 01:12:06,880
Speaker 2: still atrocious, but Cincinnati's not worth anything right now, so

1506
01:12:07,160 --> 01:12:09,000
Speaker 2: I would actually take a little flyer a little bit

1507
01:12:09,000 --> 01:12:10,479
Speaker 2: of money across counter on South Florida.

1508
01:12:11,080 --> 01:12:13,240
Speaker 1: All right, let's move on to second down here and

1509
01:12:13,400 --> 01:12:16,720
Speaker 1: talk our favorite overdog and underdog. Oh, by the way,

1510
01:12:16,720 --> 01:12:18,720
Speaker 1: I got to get a bow next season in kind

1511
01:12:18,720 --> 01:12:20,559
Speaker 1: of lean Miss State. But Auburn did a good job

1512
01:12:20,640 --> 01:12:23,160
Speaker 1: taking stop in that area with waters in the finale

1513
01:12:23,200 --> 01:12:24,600
Speaker 1: last year. But I wanted to get a the bo

1514
01:12:24,760 --> 01:12:31,519
Speaker 1: Nicks bow Knicks season then full effect in there. Second down,

1515
01:12:31,560 --> 01:12:37,160
Speaker 1: favorite overdog, favorite underdog. I'll start favorite overdog Clemson and

1516
01:12:37,200 --> 01:12:41,360
Speaker 1: a half. You're killing I think that they win. Look,

1517
01:12:41,880 --> 01:12:43,840
Speaker 1: Yukon has done this steam. I mean, this is just

1518
01:12:43,960 --> 01:12:46,240
Speaker 1: forty five to twelve Middle Tennessee State. They played two

1519
01:12:46,320 --> 01:12:49,080
Speaker 1: competent teams all year, Purdue a NC State. They lost

1520
01:12:49,080 --> 01:12:51,519
Speaker 1: forty nine nothing and forty five nothing. They're not scoring

1521
01:12:51,520 --> 01:12:54,559
Speaker 1: in this game. You get bank on that. This is

1522
01:12:54,760 --> 01:12:58,720
Speaker 1: like typical asshole dabbo game at home. It's been a

1523
01:12:58,720 --> 01:13:02,720
Speaker 1: disappointing year. We haven't really had much to cheer about there.

1524
01:13:02,800 --> 01:13:04,360
Speaker 1: I think they're going to keep their foot on the gas.

1525
01:13:04,439 --> 01:13:05,880
Speaker 1: You can't stop a nosebleed.

1526
01:13:06,240 --> 01:13:08,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, favorite overdog of the week is going to be

1527
01:13:08,040 --> 01:13:10,080
Speaker 2: Oregon State for me. You're going to notice that this

1528
01:13:10,120 --> 01:13:12,800
Speaker 2: point spread is well higher than the projection that we

1529
01:13:12,880 --> 01:13:15,080
Speaker 2: have over at Action Network, and that is because Tanner

1530
01:13:15,160 --> 01:13:18,320
Speaker 2: McKee was questionable for this game. David Shaw said on

1531
01:13:18,360 --> 01:13:21,879
Speaker 2: Tuesday Monday that if Tanner McKee is not practicing by Wednesday,

1532
01:13:21,920 --> 01:13:24,320
Speaker 2: he won't play in the game. Tanner McKee did not

1533
01:13:24,520 --> 01:13:28,000
Speaker 2: practice yesterday, yesterday being Wednesday, so he is not going

1534
01:13:28,040 --> 01:13:30,800
Speaker 2: to play, and the statement was made true. Freshman Ari

1535
01:13:31,000 --> 01:13:35,280
Speaker 2: Patou is poised to make his first start. That's right.

1536
01:13:35,360 --> 01:13:37,360
Speaker 2: We're going down to the bottom of the depth chart

1537
01:13:37,360 --> 01:13:41,960
Speaker 2: from David Shaw and heading straight into Ari Patou, who

1538
01:13:42,000 --> 01:13:44,600
Speaker 2: has a bright future at Stanford, a quarterback that he

1539
01:13:44,640 --> 01:13:46,519
Speaker 2: wanted really bad. But we're going to fast forward that

1540
01:13:46,560 --> 01:13:49,120
Speaker 2: and get that done now. Oregon State running the ball

1541
01:13:49,479 --> 01:13:53,280
Speaker 2: fifth in the nation an offensive rushing success rate, Stanford

1542
01:13:53,840 --> 01:13:58,759
Speaker 2: next to dead last in defending the rush overdog thirteen

1543
01:13:58,840 --> 01:14:01,320
Speaker 2: twelve and a half. Whatever, the Beavers are gonna roll

1544
01:14:01,360 --> 01:14:02,680
Speaker 2: here against a freshman.

1545
01:14:02,360 --> 01:14:10,479
Speaker 3: Quarterback turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for

1546
01:14:10,520 --> 01:14:12,080
Speaker 3: the money line parlay.

1547
01:14:13,120 --> 01:14:16,679
Speaker 1: My favorite underdog, Florida State, maybe Jordan Travis is back.

1548
01:14:16,720 --> 01:14:19,479
Speaker 1: It's all I need to know. Miami can't tackle. Miami

1549
01:14:19,520 --> 01:14:22,080
Speaker 1: makes dumb mistakes. His Florida State offense has been so

1550
01:14:22,120 --> 01:14:25,439
Speaker 1: good with Jordan Travis. Unfortunately for US, there was a

1551
01:14:25,479 --> 01:14:27,400
Speaker 1: flu outbreak and he got ruled out five minutes before

1552
01:14:27,479 --> 01:14:29,800
Speaker 1: kick last week. He's back at practice Sunday, as were

1553
01:14:30,280 --> 01:14:32,599
Speaker 1: all of the Florida State players that were missing. Great

1554
01:14:32,640 --> 01:14:35,400
Speaker 1: reports out of practice this week. I think Florida State

1555
01:14:35,439 --> 01:14:38,839
Speaker 1: gets this done. Give me the Dolls underdog.

1556
01:14:39,360 --> 01:14:41,760
Speaker 2: Great spot of the week for two Lane. I know

1557
01:14:41,800 --> 01:14:44,600
Speaker 2: they're one and eight. I know the numbers are atrocious.

1558
01:14:44,720 --> 01:14:46,680
Speaker 2: There's some bad weather here. It's all gonna be on

1559
01:14:46,760 --> 01:14:51,759
Speaker 2: the ground. Tulsa a heartbreaker of a loss with Davis

1560
01:14:51,920 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 2: Brynn diving at the half yard line to not push

1561
01:14:55,120 --> 01:14:58,400
Speaker 2: a game against Cincinnati into overtime. You know, and now

1562
01:14:58,400 --> 01:14:59,960
Speaker 2: they have to go on the road face a two

1563
01:15:00,080 --> 01:15:02,640
Speaker 2: lane team and you may say one to eight, but

1564
01:15:02,680 --> 01:15:05,679
Speaker 2: guess what they've covered the last two It's not pretty.

1565
01:15:05,840 --> 01:15:08,080
Speaker 2: They're not scoring a ton of points, but guess what

1566
01:15:08,439 --> 01:15:10,760
Speaker 2: they're covering games and they're actually still hanging in there

1567
01:15:10,760 --> 01:15:13,560
Speaker 2: despite the fact they have no postseason in their future whatsoever.

1568
01:15:14,000 --> 01:15:17,240
Speaker 2: Tulsa's in a huge flat spot here one hundred and

1569
01:15:17,280 --> 01:15:21,200
Speaker 2: thirteenth in offensive finishing drives on offense one hundred and

1570
01:15:21,240 --> 01:15:24,080
Speaker 2: seventh and defensive finishing drives here. I think Tulane can

1571
01:15:24,120 --> 01:15:27,120
Speaker 2: do enough on the ground, keep this close, get the win,

1572
01:15:27,680 --> 01:15:29,800
Speaker 2: green wave. I love them. I even got a helmet

1573
01:15:29,840 --> 01:15:30,680
Speaker 2: them right here behind me.

1574
01:15:30,960 --> 01:15:33,920
Speaker 1: Great spot for Twulane, and I mean they've been in

1575
01:15:34,000 --> 01:15:35,920
Speaker 1: some games, but right there they lost a five to

1576
01:15:35,920 --> 01:15:38,920
Speaker 1: Oklaho'm going to start the year yea, and they got

1577
01:15:38,960 --> 01:15:40,840
Speaker 1: a little maybe a little payback on their minds from

1578
01:15:40,920 --> 01:15:45,080
Speaker 1: last year against Tulsa and Tulsamrak had a miracle to

1579
01:15:45,120 --> 01:15:48,400
Speaker 1: tie that game to get to the overtime and then

1580
01:15:48,640 --> 01:15:53,240
Speaker 1: had to pick six to finish it out in overtime

1581
01:15:53,320 --> 01:15:55,519
Speaker 1: for that win. All right, before we get out of here,

1582
01:15:55,600 --> 01:16:02,080
Speaker 1: one final task and that's our favorite bet of the weekend.

1583
01:16:02,760 --> 01:16:05,599
Speaker 1: I'll start here. I'm gonna this is gonna be one

1584
01:16:05,600 --> 01:16:08,120
Speaker 1: that you don't agree with. I think that you're on

1585
01:16:08,120 --> 01:16:10,000
Speaker 1: the other side here. My favorite bet of the weekend

1586
01:16:10,200 --> 01:16:14,360
Speaker 1: is Georgia State plus ten and a half against Coastal Carolina.

1587
01:16:14,720 --> 01:16:20,559
Speaker 1: I make this game around seventeen with Grayson McCall who's out.

1588
01:16:21,640 --> 01:16:24,920
Speaker 1: I have him worth ten points to spread. I think

1589
01:16:24,960 --> 01:16:27,400
Speaker 1: the most important player in all of college football to

1590
01:16:27,400 --> 01:16:30,639
Speaker 1: his team. If you look at it total EPA for quarterback,

1591
01:16:30,680 --> 01:16:33,240
Speaker 1: he's number one in the nation. This offense with him

1592
01:16:33,320 --> 01:16:37,400
Speaker 1: complete juggernaut. But this Coastal team overall hasn't really impressed

1593
01:16:37,400 --> 01:16:41,720
Speaker 1: me this year. And here's who they beat. Citadel Kansas.

1594
01:16:42,080 --> 01:16:47,640
Speaker 1: They beat Buffalo by three UMass ulm arc State. These

1595
01:16:47,640 --> 01:16:49,479
Speaker 1: are the most poverty defense. These are the five or

1596
01:16:49,520 --> 01:16:52,400
Speaker 1: six worst defenses in the country. They lost to app State,

1597
01:16:53,280 --> 01:16:56,760
Speaker 1: They beat Troy by seven at home, and then they

1598
01:16:56,800 --> 01:16:58,760
Speaker 1: just beat Georgia Southern twenty eight to eight in a

1599
01:16:58,800 --> 01:17:02,439
Speaker 1: month soon Georgia's Southern team, that is awful. But in

1600
01:17:02,479 --> 01:17:06,000
Speaker 1: a game that was zero zero with four minutes to

1601
01:17:06,040 --> 01:17:08,400
Speaker 1: go in the first half, and then you have fumble

1602
01:17:08,680 --> 01:17:12,000
Speaker 1: at their own thirty touchdown, Georgia Southern fumble at their

1603
01:17:12,000 --> 01:17:16,040
Speaker 1: own thirty touchdown, punt block, touchdown, twenty one to nothing.

1604
01:17:16,120 --> 01:17:19,840
Speaker 1: Game over this Coastal team has played nobody. And I

1605
01:17:19,880 --> 01:17:22,840
Speaker 1: think that their defensive line is the whole def that's

1606
01:17:22,840 --> 01:17:25,800
Speaker 1: the front is vulnerable to Georgia State's rushing attack. This

1607
01:17:25,880 --> 01:17:29,960
Speaker 1: Georgia State defense is playing better of late and motivation.

1608
01:17:30,560 --> 01:17:33,519
Speaker 1: Georgia State last year, who lost a number of close games.

1609
01:17:33,520 --> 01:17:36,200
Speaker 1: They lost one possession games to app State, one possession

1610
01:17:36,200 --> 01:17:40,599
Speaker 1: game to Louisiana, lost at home to this Coastal team

1611
01:17:40,720 --> 01:17:43,960
Speaker 1: fifty one to nothing, and it was embarrassing. They've been

1612
01:17:44,000 --> 01:17:46,920
Speaker 1: talking about it all week. I think they're gonna come

1613
01:17:46,920 --> 01:17:48,840
Speaker 1: out with their hair on fire here. They're playing for

1614
01:17:48,880 --> 01:17:51,880
Speaker 1: Bowl eligibility. They need to win out. If they win

1615
01:17:52,000 --> 01:17:54,360
Speaker 1: this game, they're gonna have a really good shot because

1616
01:17:54,360 --> 01:17:57,000
Speaker 1: they closed with Arkansas State and Troy at home, so

1617
01:17:57,040 --> 01:17:59,439
Speaker 1: I think you get their max effort here. I think

1618
01:17:59,479 --> 01:18:03,839
Speaker 1: Grayson mc is that important. Coastal Carolina has not impressed

1619
01:18:03,880 --> 01:18:05,519
Speaker 1: me against the teams that they played that weren't the

1620
01:18:05,640 --> 01:18:08,640
Speaker 1: five worst defenses in the country. Give me the Panthers

1621
01:18:09,160 --> 01:18:12,320
Speaker 1: plus ten and a half against Coastal Carolina.

1622
01:18:14,040 --> 01:18:15,920
Speaker 2: We're certainly going to find out how much Brice Carpenter

1623
01:18:15,960 --> 01:18:17,639
Speaker 2: is worth. I mean, he's been there for four years,

1624
01:18:17,640 --> 01:18:20,160
Speaker 2: he knows the offense well, and this week we'll actually

1625
01:18:20,200 --> 01:18:22,360
Speaker 2: be able to tailor the offense to his skill set,

1626
01:18:22,400 --> 01:18:25,679
Speaker 2: which is like Grayson McCall light. So we'll certainly see

1627
01:18:25,720 --> 01:18:28,280
Speaker 2: what the drop off the value over replacement player, the

1628
01:18:28,360 --> 01:18:30,840
Speaker 2: term you use in baseball. What we get here now

1629
01:18:30,840 --> 01:18:31,040
Speaker 2: I have.

1630
01:18:31,040 --> 01:18:33,080
Speaker 1: A ten points, so maybe I'm wrong, but I think

1631
01:18:33,080 --> 01:18:33,919
Speaker 1: he's that important.

1632
01:18:34,200 --> 01:18:36,160
Speaker 2: The San Diego State that is my favorite play of

1633
01:18:36,160 --> 01:18:38,760
Speaker 2: the week. I'm gonna stick with that. But I'm gonna

1634
01:18:38,760 --> 01:18:41,800
Speaker 2: flip over and I'm gonna take Missouri. I'm gonna take

1635
01:18:41,840 --> 01:18:45,320
Speaker 2: Missouri over South Carolina. South Carolina's going on the road.

1636
01:18:45,680 --> 01:18:48,559
Speaker 2: They just beat Florida by what thirty and that's because

1637
01:18:48,560 --> 01:18:52,080
Speaker 2: Florida had thirty players on an ivy stricken with the flu.

1638
01:18:52,520 --> 01:18:55,599
Speaker 2: South Carolina heads over to Missouri, a Missouri team that

1639
01:18:55,760 --> 01:18:59,400
Speaker 2: covered Georgia first time of the season. Missouri's actually covered

1640
01:18:59,400 --> 01:19:02,000
Speaker 2: a game. They did it without their quarterback, Connor Bezlak.

1641
01:19:02,240 --> 01:19:06,120
Speaker 2: Connor Bezlak is back this week. Missouri's at home catching

1642
01:19:06,200 --> 01:19:09,600
Speaker 2: a point. I see some picks out there. This is

1643
01:19:09,680 --> 01:19:12,160
Speaker 2: just a game right here where it's just complete overreaction.

1644
01:19:12,760 --> 01:19:16,080
Speaker 2: There is going to be a lot of betters and

1645
01:19:16,120 --> 01:19:18,160
Speaker 2: a lot of sides that are on South Carolina against

1646
01:19:18,160 --> 01:19:21,160
Speaker 2: the Missouri team that I mean, let's face it, I mean,

1647
01:19:21,240 --> 01:19:23,320
Speaker 2: Drinkwitz was still driving as hard as he could in

1648
01:19:23,360 --> 01:19:25,880
Speaker 2: the last couple drives, of that game against Georgia to

1649
01:19:25,920 --> 01:19:28,040
Speaker 2: beat South to get to South Carolina. There has been

1650
01:19:28,080 --> 01:19:31,200
Speaker 2: a lot of luck factor into South Carolina's games. They've

1651
01:19:31,240 --> 01:19:34,120
Speaker 2: won some games this year where their post win probability

1652
01:19:34,200 --> 01:19:37,800
Speaker 2: was below fifty percent. South Carolina does not deserve to

1653
01:19:37,840 --> 01:19:39,439
Speaker 2: go to a bowl game, even though they probably are

1654
01:19:39,439 --> 01:19:41,719
Speaker 2: going to. But this is a great Bilow spot on Missouri,

1655
01:19:41,720 --> 01:19:43,879
Speaker 2: a team that's still trying and gets their starting quarterback

1656
01:19:44,120 --> 01:19:47,360
Speaker 2: back from injury. Missouri for me, all right, today you

1657
01:19:47,400 --> 01:19:49,479
Speaker 2: have it. We've covered about twenty five games in an

1658
01:19:49,479 --> 01:19:52,680
Speaker 2: hour and a half. Won't find that anywhere else out there.

1659
01:19:52,720 --> 01:19:54,719
Speaker 2: We appreciate all of you listening. Make sure you subscribe

1660
01:19:54,720 --> 01:19:58,000
Speaker 2: on Subscribe, subscribe, leave a review. I'll do some giveaways

1661
01:19:58,040 --> 01:20:00,000
Speaker 2: on our recap episode which will be out on Monday.

1662
01:20:00,080 --> 01:20:01,720
Speaker 2: Make sure you check out check out our Group of

1663
01:20:01,760 --> 01:20:02,479
Speaker 2: five episode.

1664
01:20:02,520 --> 01:20:05,280
Speaker 1: Those guys have been killing it three Man Weave episode

1665
01:20:05,280 --> 01:20:09,040
Speaker 1: as well sources with Colin and Brett McMurphy, and then

1666
01:20:09,080 --> 01:20:11,320
Speaker 1: our live show I think that's okay but live ten

1667
01:20:11,400 --> 01:20:15,519
Speaker 1: thirty eight am Eastern on Twitter. Appreciate all of you listening.

1668
01:20:15,800 --> 01:20:18,160
Speaker 1: Let's get hot, let's close this year out strong. It's

1669
01:20:18,200 --> 01:20:20,040
Speaker 1: time for us to go find some last minute winters.

1670
01:20:20,280 --> 01:20:22,160
Speaker 1: Make sure you check out also the Action NETWORKAP and

1671
01:20:22,200 --> 01:20:24,200
Speaker 1: actionework dot com. We'll catch you all later.

1672
01:20:24,280 --> 01:20:25,400
Speaker 2: Cheers, peace out,