WEBVTT - Anna Han on the Markets (Radio)

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<v Speaker 1>Coming up on nine minutes past the Let's get to

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<v Speaker 1>our guests. Anna Han, equity strategist at Will's Fargo Securities.

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<v Speaker 1>A very simple question here, Anna, is the FED overtightening? Oh?

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<v Speaker 1>If you start with the hard questions, all right, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>are they overtightening? I think the FED has been communicating

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<v Speaker 1>that they're following the data. The question is is the

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<v Speaker 1>data lagging? When you have a lagging indicator, that's really

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<v Speaker 1>where you get in that danger of are they going

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<v Speaker 1>to get ahead of the curve here? But they have

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<v Speaker 1>signaled that they are turning a little more devish and

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<v Speaker 1>consensus expects a lower rate hike this December. I think

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<v Speaker 1>that is actually a pretty sensitive and in tune with

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<v Speaker 1>the data we've been seeing. Okay, I think what what

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<v Speaker 1>we have at the moment is Brian just asking you know,

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<v Speaker 1>they are the dangers of a policy mistake liming larger.

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<v Speaker 1>I would say there's always been that mistake. Has it

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<v Speaker 1>become larger? In fact, I think sentiment has actually improved

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<v Speaker 1>and expected that perhaps that risk has read deuced. Um,

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing less and less people talking about hard landing

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<v Speaker 1>and the probability or the hope for soft landing increasing. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the fact that you've seen in the last

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<v Speaker 1>CPI print as well as some of the most recent

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<v Speaker 1>data UM with inflation coming down, that the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>they're hiking has taken impact. That's what's giving us hope UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And the fact that they're willing to slow it down.

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<v Speaker 1>That's also giving hope that perhaps the FED won't get

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<v Speaker 1>to ahead and that we can manage that soft landing.

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<v Speaker 1>I think what you said about the timing is is

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<v Speaker 1>very important that we haven't had enough time yet to

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<v Speaker 1>really feel the full brunt of these rate hikes that

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<v Speaker 1>have come through. That said, the markets have have been

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<v Speaker 1>looking beyond and you would think that J. Powell will

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<v Speaker 1>come out more hawkish tomorrow than he might have otherwise

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<v Speaker 1>given the rise in stocks and bonds and what that

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<v Speaker 1>means for UM, for conditions in the financial markets. Oh,

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<v Speaker 1>you can bring up a great point. UM, when you

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<v Speaker 1>have good news and sometimes it could be bad news,

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<v Speaker 1>does it fuel the Fed? Do give them more ability

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<v Speaker 1>to get hawkish without perhaps crashing the markets. But what

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<v Speaker 1>we keep in mind as well is UH, even with

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<v Speaker 1>that backward looking data they they have UM. I think

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<v Speaker 1>the focus is going to be in what trends we're

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<v Speaker 1>seeing with economic data. I think the I S N

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<v Speaker 1>manufacturing and the personal incomes data we're going to see

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<v Speaker 1>on Thursday is going to be a good indicator of

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<v Speaker 1>what direction we're going. What do you think it's gonna

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<v Speaker 1>What sort of picture is it actually gonna paint for you? Well,

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<v Speaker 1>right now, what we're concerned about is how the consumer

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<v Speaker 1>is doing. We're seeing on the manufacturing side that some

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<v Speaker 1>of the prices paid components are suggesting a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>of deflationary pressures. But on the same time, consumers continue

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<v Speaker 1>to spend. Now they're using their access disposable income, they're

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<v Speaker 1>using increased credit card debt. But can that sustain into

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<v Speaker 1>next years? What's going to control elearnings. Let's just have

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<v Speaker 1>a look at where you actually now invest give what

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<v Speaker 1>we talked about in terms of the broader macro picture.

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<v Speaker 1>What kind of companies are doing well in this type

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<v Speaker 1>of environment, and which you're likely to do in the

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<v Speaker 1>one that you're predicting. I think right now what we're

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<v Speaker 1>focused on is momentum, and momentum is simple. You look

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<v Speaker 1>at what companies have been working. That's never a promise

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<v Speaker 1>for the future. But the reason why we're liking these

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<v Speaker 1>good performance, which right now has been energy and particular

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<v Speaker 1>parts of health care, specifically biotech, is that they are

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<v Speaker 1>in a way have an ability to have a little

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<v Speaker 1>more secular growth UM Now, of course energy markets impacted

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<v Speaker 1>by inflation and how this pans out, but particularly um

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<v Speaker 1>the lack of uber caps in the leadership that's looking

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<v Speaker 1>attractive to us right now. So that's sort of where

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<v Speaker 1>we're keeping our eyes. What do you make of of

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<v Speaker 1>Dave Costin's view that that companies margins are likely to

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<v Speaker 1>start coming down next year as expenses normalize. I'd actually

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<v Speaker 1>say margins already are coming down now. You saw with

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<v Speaker 1>this last quarter earnings, and this is something we've been

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<v Speaker 1>saying and expecting for several quarters. To see it realize

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<v Speaker 1>after this past earning season, something we expected, but of

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<v Speaker 1>course something would continue to be weary about. But that

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<v Speaker 1>margin is exactly why on a bigger picture scale, we're

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<v Speaker 1>looking for where we can find secular growers, companies that

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<v Speaker 1>can manage their operational costs, that can continue to manage

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<v Speaker 1>those inflation prices and still grow their earnings. In particular

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<v Speaker 1>for three, when we're expecting and most of the street

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<v Speaker 1>is expecting an overall pretty flat EPs growth. Okay, so

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<v Speaker 1>this is going to be the next question. I think

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<v Speaker 1>in your notes you're talking about uh AN equity market leadership.

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<v Speaker 1>Also look at how that perhaps may well change if

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<v Speaker 1>we look at a change in sentiment towards the greenback,

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<v Speaker 1>which seems to be at a pivotal point. Yeah. I

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<v Speaker 1>think really it's a macro story if you still and

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<v Speaker 1>you're seeing that not just um over the past year,

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<v Speaker 1>but also think about today with field Tire, you're seeing

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<v Speaker 1>the value sectors outperformed, seeing growth take a little bit

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<v Speaker 1>on the chin. But over the month with that decline

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<v Speaker 1>and inflation expectation, especially after we got a more friendly

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<v Speaker 1>i'll say October CPI print, you saw NOMO yields come down,

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<v Speaker 1>and these tech and more growthy industries, especially semis and software,

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<v Speaker 1>you saw those have a bounce this month. So you're

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<v Speaker 1>still seeing the macro narrative pulling the strings on the

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<v Speaker 1>puppets here. I think next year, depending on when the

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<v Speaker 1>FED really decides to fully pivot and go into cutting mode,

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<v Speaker 1>that's going to help determine when we might get that

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<v Speaker 1>resurgence in growth and growth industries for a longer run.

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<v Speaker 1>But that's really a back half story of next year.

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<v Speaker 1>Another good input could be if China starts to reopen.

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<v Speaker 1>We've had a lot of doubts about that. I think

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<v Speaker 1>investors have had some doubts, but a huge rally yesterday

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<v Speaker 1>and it seems like the overall strategy is easing a

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<v Speaker 1>little bit here uh IF if more on the ground

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<v Speaker 1>actions rather than uh in name, the National Health Commission

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<v Speaker 1>said excessive curbs should be avoided. Are you optimistic that

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<v Speaker 1>that is a positive story for markets that's happening in China.

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<v Speaker 1>We do think that would be positive, but we are

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<v Speaker 1>cautious because China's economy hasn't particularly gathered this economic momentum

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<v Speaker 1>post pandemic that you saw in the US. They had

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of stop and start fits. So that's something

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<v Speaker 1>that we're cautious about, and that volatility exposure is why

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<v Speaker 1>we're not particularly pouring or our funds into Chinese equities directly. Rather,

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<v Speaker 1>what we have looked at is within the U S companies,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly the large companies domestically which have the particular higher

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<v Speaker 1>sales to China. There are a good number of SMP

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<v Speaker 1>companies SMP five companies that have over ten percent revenue

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<v Speaker 1>exposure China. That could be a good place to start

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<v Speaker 1>for those who truly believe that this is a turning

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<v Speaker 1>point and that reopening UM is a certainty. But that's

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<v Speaker 1>again something that is a bit more of a higher

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<v Speaker 1>risk investment, so something that would have to fit your

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<v Speaker 1>risk APPA site. Anna, thank you so much for joining

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<v Speaker 1>us that Anna hand, they're joining execuity strategist at Wells

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<v Speaker 1>Fargo Securities getting her take on the market action