Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 2: Well, a little bit of FED speak. We had some
Speaker 2: economic data today with the jobs claims kind of right
Speaker 2: in line with expectations. I don't know, I kind of
Speaker 2: feel like this FED obviously has taken March off the
Speaker 2: table for a cut, and I don't know where we
Speaker 2: are from May, maybe fifty to fifty. I don't know
Speaker 2: what the worp thing mcgiggie says, But let's talk to
Speaker 2: somebody who actually does this for a living. That would
Speaker 2: be one Ira Jersey, chief US interest rate strategist for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. He is down in the Bloomberg campus getting
Speaker 2: ready for what will be a spectacular lunch. I'm sure,
Speaker 2: because that's how they do it down there in Prince.
Speaker 3: Let's just talk about that.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know, I mean, it's unbelievable. They did a renovation,
Speaker 2: which I don't even why they did a renovation because
Speaker 2: it was already a great facility. But it's even better now,
Speaker 2: all right, Ira, talk to us about May. I'll give
Speaker 2: you March. We're not going to do anything in March.
Speaker 2: That's fine, But I'm focusing now on May. I could
Speaker 2: argue that they don't need to do anything in May.
Speaker 2: What do you think?
Speaker 4: Yeah, And there's certainly and there's Paul, There certainly are
Speaker 4: people who are arguing that very that very thing. When
Speaker 4: you look at the recent data, it does seem like
Speaker 4: the economy is not selling down very much. You don't
Speaker 4: have you have some signals that maybe inflation will kind
Speaker 4: of stabilize here instead of continuing to fall. So that's
Speaker 4: leading some people to think that the Federal Reserve might
Speaker 4: not might not cut in May. So we are pricing,
Speaker 4: like you said, using the WRP function, around around a
Speaker 4: three quarters chance of a cut in May. And I
Speaker 4: think that that's probably the correct pricing given the information
Speaker 4: that we currently have. I think the you know, the
Speaker 4: thing that we have to remember, though, is that the
Speaker 4: Federal Reserve doesn't want the difference between inflation and the
Speaker 4: Fed funds rate to get too wide because they think
Speaker 4: that that will tighten financial conditions too much and slow
Speaker 4: the economy more. Now you know, how effective is monetary
Speaker 4: policy right now? And what is the lead and lags
Speaker 4: of monetary policy right now? No one really knows, and
Speaker 4: it's certainly much longer this time, I think because of
Speaker 4: some of the structural changes, like everyone with low mortgage
Speaker 4: rates that are don't have to refinance again and won't
Speaker 4: when interest rates are four hundred basis points above where
Speaker 4: where their mortgages are.
Speaker 5: That would be me so fair enough, IRA, And you
Speaker 5: had Thomas Barkin talking to Michael McKee earlier saying that
Speaker 5: it is conceivable that the neutral rate has risen after
Speaker 5: the pandemic.
Speaker 3: So it feels like the thing that kind of throws some.
Speaker 5: Cold water is that if a higher neutral rate, then
Speaker 5: were just less tight than we thought. Therefore we can
Speaker 5: wait longer to cut or you don't have to cut
Speaker 5: as much.
Speaker 4: Sure, and the neutral rate almost certainly is higher, right
Speaker 4: the question is how much higher We had a time
Speaker 4: period in between the crises, both from two thousand and
Speaker 4: nine call it to twenty twenty to the pandemic, where
Speaker 4: where our star The real neutral rate, whatever you want
Speaker 4: to call it, was probably exceptionally low. And one of
Speaker 4: the big reasons for that was just the lack of
Speaker 4: volatility in the economy. Also lack of volatility in some markets,
Speaker 4: although you know, obviously markets went up and down, but
Speaker 4: generally speaking, you had a situation where where you had
Speaker 4: exceptionally low our store. So you know, our store is higher, right,
Speaker 4: I mean there's almost people who are saying that it's not.
Speaker 4: I think, you know, aren't considering that we're in a
Speaker 4: different regime now than we were the last ten years.
Speaker 4: I think the question is it higher like it was
Speaker 4: in two thousand and five or nineteen ninety five or
Speaker 4: you know, nineteen eighty and I suspect that that, yes,
Speaker 4: our store is higher than it was the last decade
Speaker 4: or so, but we're not going back to the nineteen
Speaker 4: eighties when you know, the real neutral rate was probably
Speaker 4: somewhere closer to eight or nine percent. So you know,
Speaker 4: we're not We're not there, but we're also not at
Speaker 4: fifty basis points where at one and a half percent
Speaker 4: or two percent something like that is our estimate of
Speaker 4: where our star is.
Speaker 2: So if I go you know, to the Morgan Stanley
Speaker 2: fixing come trading floor and go over to the government desk,
Speaker 2: I kind of feeling the traders there just kind of
Speaker 2: scrolling through TikTok there's not a lot going on. It
Speaker 2: feels like it's a trade range bound kind of trading range,
Speaker 2: Is that right, iron, What maybe gets us out of that?
Speaker 4: Yeah, we've been in a range. I think we'll probably
Speaker 4: stay into a range at least until next week when
Speaker 4: we get CPI in retail sales. You know, I don't
Speaker 4: see really what would knock us out of this. So
Speaker 4: it's not unusual for ten longer term treasury yields to
Speaker 4: fall into some thirty to fifty base point range you know,
Speaker 4: call it forty basis point range right now that we're in,
Speaker 4: and just chop around within that until you get some
Speaker 4: impetus that's usually fundamentally driven that drives the market out
Speaker 4: of those ranges. And sometimes those ranges last for months
Speaker 4: and months at a time. There was a you know,
Speaker 4: I remember going back to twenty fifteen when we were
Speaker 4: in the same range for about six months and I
Speaker 4: was thinking about switching careers because there was nothing right about. So,
Speaker 4: you know, I don't think we're going there right. I
Speaker 4: think that we'll get some more information over at least
Speaker 4: the next six weeks that gives us a better direction,
Speaker 4: and maybe that direction and I think that this is
Speaker 4: something that is permeating some of the trading desks, is, Hey,
Speaker 4: what happens if the FED doesn't cut as much as
Speaker 4: the market's pricing. What happens if the FED only it
Speaker 4: cuts two or three times? In fact, we have a
Speaker 4: model that you can find out, go to Beico Models,
Speaker 4: and we look at the options market on some industry
Speaker 4: of futures contracts, and what we say is that the
Speaker 4: market's pricing for a twenty percent chance that the FED
Speaker 4: only cuts once or twice this year. And that's something
Speaker 4: that we have to keep in mind. That's a real
Speaker 4: possibility now, and if we continue to have such good data,
Speaker 4: I think it becomes a higher and higher probability as
Speaker 4: a year goes on.
Speaker 5: That's really interesting. I wonder what would happen in the
Speaker 5: markets in that case. Like equities may I mean like
Speaker 5: that equities may like get okay if the growth is
Speaker 5: really there, But the bond market, I don't know. I
Speaker 5: think that would be a real sea change. We've already
Speaker 5: come in from like six or seven to four real
Speaker 5: quick twenty seconds thirty year today?
Speaker 3: Are you looked? You care?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 4: Well, yesterday's ten year auction went very well, So I
Speaker 4: am a little bit concerned about the thirty year today
Speaker 4: because what we've seen sometimes is one auction does well,
Speaker 4: the next auction does poorly, or vice versa.
Speaker 2: Bar enough, how can you know there's an tree auction today?
Speaker 3: Because I know pays.
Speaker 2: Attention to stuff.
Speaker 3: To be totally fair, she pays attention in class. Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Daybreak is really helpful with these things. So I said
Speaker 3: it you get after that, work it up there. Oh
Speaker 3: listen John Tucker.
Speaker 5: But if you read it Bloomberg day Break after five
Speaker 5: thirty am, they have really concise bits, not long stories,
Speaker 5: really bite sized information for you.
Speaker 3: And then I cut and past, put them on my notes,
Speaker 3: put them on my thing.
Speaker 2: Look at shoot our jersey.
Speaker 3: Thanks no more organized in act intelligence.
Speaker 2: Senior right strateg Just thank you so much for joining
Speaker 2: us and learning. I mean, this is how she gets
Speaker 2: so smart and see. But the key thing is if
Speaker 2: you get in after it five thirty this is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: Let's go back to Disney, their stock that's having a
Speaker 2: good day, up about nine percent here in early trading
Speaker 2: on the back of a quarter that for some people was,
Speaker 2: you know, kind of like boy, I think they've got
Speaker 2: their handle on this thing now. And Laura Martin at
Speaker 2: Needham she upgraded the stock to a buy today, So
Speaker 2: that's helping the stock up nine point nine percent here today.
Speaker 2: Let's check in with Getha rang Anatha and she covers
Speaker 2: all the media stocks in the industry for Bloomberg Intelligence,
Speaker 2: she's been all over this name here. Hey, Keith, the
Speaker 2: stock's up about ten percent here. What do you think
Speaker 2: the market's reacting to here today?
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean Disney is definitely back, Paul back with
Speaker 6: a bank. Market is reacting to all of the profitability
Speaker 6: that they're seeing with this company. I mean, one of
Speaker 6: the big pain points with Disney has really been the
Speaker 6: lack of streaming profitability. But now there seems to be
Speaker 6: a clear path to the streaming business kind of getting
Speaker 6: to that profitability metric. So we saw the losses come
Speaker 6: in way below expectations. It was sixty five percent below
Speaker 6: what people were projecting. They're still kind of guiding to
Speaker 6: you know, hitting profitability by the September quarter, but most people,
Speaker 6: i think on the street expected to happen much much sooner.
Speaker 6: And then Hugh Johnston, who's the new CFO and this
Speaker 6: was his first call with Disney, basically said that look
Speaker 6: to or expect double digit operating margins in the streaming business.
Speaker 6: And I think that was something that was really really
Speaker 6: powerful because we know that, you know, the number that
Speaker 6: we're all chasing is that twenty percent operating margin where
Speaker 6: you know Netflix has been with their streaming business.
Speaker 5: So the based on what we got, what is your
Speaker 5: question today versus your question yesterday?
Speaker 6: I mean, I think the one area that we kind
Speaker 6: of still need clarity is how all of this the
Speaker 6: streaming bundles are going to work. So it's really good
Speaker 6: to see them kind of be proactive and go out
Speaker 6: with their own solution. So they have that sports super
Speaker 6: app that's coming out a little bit later this year
Speaker 6: in conjunction with Fox and Warner Brothers. They have their
Speaker 6: own ESPN Plus standalone app. Again a little bit of
Speaker 6: you know, we're not really sure whether those are necessarily
Speaker 6: going to can applies to each other. I don't think so.
Speaker 6: I think, really Disney, what they're trying to do here
Speaker 6: is kind of create this this super bundle because they
Speaker 6: know that, you know, content bundling works, and everybody's kind
Speaker 6: of looking aggregation is the holy grail, and I think
Speaker 6: Disney wants to be at the forefront of it. But
Speaker 6: definitely we need a little bit more kind of clarity
Speaker 6: at least around like what the financial value creation is
Speaker 6: going to be.
Speaker 2: How about the theme park business that seems to continue
Speaker 2: to be a really solid business for them, and I
Speaker 2: know they you know, they announced several months ago that
Speaker 2: they're really stepping up their investment in their theme parks
Speaker 2: and their cruises and all that kind of stuff. How
Speaker 2: did that business do very very well?
Speaker 6: So again, operating income was for the quarter was well
Speaker 6: above three billion dollars. That was again above what the
Speaker 6: street was expecting. And really what we're seeing is a
Speaker 6: lot of momentum at the international parks. So they opened,
Speaker 6: you know, they've opened so many new attractions in their
Speaker 6: overseas properties. You have a new Frozen Land in Hong Kong.
Speaker 6: You have the new Zootopia attraction in Shanghai, and both
Speaker 6: of those are doing really really well for the company,
Speaker 6: and that has really enabled them to take, you know,
Speaker 6: implement all of these price increases. So international parks really
Speaker 6: kind of doing extremely well. Domestically. There's a little bit
Speaker 6: of pressure from wage inflation, there's a little bit of
Speaker 6: pressure from you know, tough comms from like the Walt
Speaker 6: Disney World fifty that anniversary celebration, but again, you know,
Speaker 6: just transient parks are really set up very very well,
Speaker 6: and you mentioned the sixty billion dollar investment. Now seventy
Speaker 6: percent of that capex is going to be towards new attractions,
Speaker 6: so this is really going to be a major, major
Speaker 6: profit driver for them going forward.
Speaker 5: Git there was a journal article that I just felt
Speaker 5: like helped someone like me who's not seeped in Disney,
Speaker 5: like you guys, understand how they're just seeping in to
Speaker 5: all the Americana that's out there. They said, Taylor Swift,
Speaker 5: football and Fortnite, but like anywhere that you will want
Speaker 5: to be or listen to or watch.
Speaker 3: Disney will be there. What did you make of the
Speaker 3: Fortnite investment?
Speaker 6: Super smart move by them, right, It's so strategic, it's
Speaker 6: so smart, and it's still a kind of not a
Speaker 6: huge investment. One point five billion gives them some steak,
Speaker 6: gives them some skin in the game, and there's a
Speaker 6: lot of upside, not too much downside. So I think
Speaker 6: a really good way for them. And remember, Alex, they've
Speaker 6: had this kind of really checkered past when it comes
Speaker 6: to video games. It's not that they haven't been there.
Speaker 6: They were in the publishing business. Didn't really work out
Speaker 6: for them. They exited that business in twenty sixteen started
Speaker 6: licensing out a lot of their content. But you know, licensing,
Speaker 6: you're still kind of this passive participant. They really need
Speaker 6: to be there. They need to be an active participant
Speaker 6: in the video gaming industry. There's so much overlap between
Speaker 6: all of the audiences that go to the you know,
Speaker 6: the Disney parks and you know the people who are gaming. Right,
Speaker 6: it's all these youngsters and they really want to be there,
Speaker 6: and this is a great way for them to do it.
Speaker 2: Well, listener, it just writes in here and says Carolo.
Speaker 2: Swift also announced her concert movie would be exclusively on
Speaker 2: Disney Plus starting next month.
Speaker 5: Thank you for that, with five new songs. Really, yeah,
Speaker 5: so you already saw it. You're gonna want to see
Speaker 5: it again because there's five new performances.
Speaker 2: On Contucker's all fired up for that, all right, So.
Speaker 3: I'm going to address it throughout the two You were
Speaker 3: going to.
Speaker 2: Have to say exactly. He to talk to us about
Speaker 2: the movie business to film, the entertainment business that was
Speaker 2: at one point for a long time just a sort
Speaker 2: of tremendous value. Just smash it after smash it, billion
Speaker 2: dollar box office became the norm. What are they saying
Speaker 2: about their theatrical business.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and they were asked about this last night, Paul,
Speaker 6: And you know, the content the studio has not really
Speaker 6: been the blockbuster you know that it was. We've had
Speaker 6: a whole string of misfires over the past few months.
Speaker 6: But I think what Barb Bager was saying is they
Speaker 6: are in the process of rebuilding. The whole content pipeline
Speaker 6: is refilling. They're having this really smart move here with
Speaker 6: this new Taylor Swift movie coming out on March fifteenth.
Speaker 6: And then they spoke about, you know, having this new
Speaker 6: Moana movie. This was originally going to be a series
Speaker 6: on Disney Plus it's it's now going to be a theatrical,
Speaker 6: full blown theatrical release. And again we're prepping for twenty
Speaker 6: twenty six, really, which is going to be the biggest
Speaker 6: year for the box office ever since the pandemic, and
Speaker 6: a lot of that will be Disney kind of driving
Speaker 6: the slate right with. You have the whole Star Wars
Speaker 6: coming back with Mandalorian and Grogu, you have a whole
Speaker 6: set of Marvel releases, so it's going to be really
Speaker 6: interesting as we kind of build to that. So again,
Speaker 6: nothing really major in twenty twenty four, maybe other than
Speaker 6: you know, kind of the Deadpool movie. But we're kind
Speaker 6: of building towards a much stronger slate in twenty five twenty.
Speaker 5: Nothing big coming except for the Deadpool. Excuse me, I've
Speaker 5: been waiting for this movie for years.
Speaker 3: Deadpool three.
Speaker 2: You're a big fan of the franchise.
Speaker 3: Definitely not my audience that I'm talking to right now.
Speaker 2: Okay, I thought you said Deadpool. I thought it was
Speaker 2: like a financial movie. I would have gone see.
Speaker 3: That Reynolds Deadpool.
Speaker 2: It's very brilliant. Yeah, I don't grow out much.
Speaker 5: This is the third one having Wolverine make a little cameo.
Speaker 3: Whatever.
Speaker 5: Anyway, it's gonna be awesome. Paul, What do you make
Speaker 5: of like how fast Disney was.
Speaker 2: Able to move Well, A lot of people tell you
Speaker 2: they didn't move fast enough. But it's I think when
Speaker 2: i Figer came in, I mean, yeah, yeah, and it's
Speaker 2: but the stock's been kind of dead money for a
Speaker 2: while and Githa well knows here. It's just a question
Speaker 2: of when can we get a sense of when the
Speaker 2: streaming losses are going to be in the rear view mirror.
Speaker 2: And you know, bob byger surprises. You know, I guess
Speaker 2: a year or so ago when he said some of
Speaker 2: these assets might be for sale, like the ABC networks,
Speaker 2: some of the cable networks. Any update on that, no.
Speaker 6: So you know, yes he did. He you know, we
Speaker 6: did have him kind of say everything's up for sale,
Speaker 6: and then he kind of walked back all of that.
Speaker 6: And now it's see, you know, it's kind of starting
Speaker 6: to make sense because they're obviously taking all that content,
Speaker 6: they're putting it now on the super app, So it
Speaker 6: makes sense for them to still kind of hold on
Speaker 6: to their linear TV assets because they still do have
Speaker 6: very valuable sports rights on there. So I think they're
Speaker 6: kind of aiming for this bigger, kind of grander strategy.
Speaker 6: I don't necessarily think that they're looking to sell any
Speaker 6: of their linear TV networks right now.
Speaker 2: So interesting. Okay, very good Keith, a great update, Thanks
Speaker 2: for taking the time. KEITHA wrong and nothing. She is
Speaker 2: the media analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence. Joining us via zoom
Speaker 2: from the HQ down at Princeton, New Jersey.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us live
Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple car Playing and
Speaker 1: Broun Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Speaker 5: Here's one of the top red stories in the terminal
Speaker 5: right now. Greenlight Capital forced to shift its strategy as
Speaker 5: the growth of passive investing in algorithmic trading transformed the markets.
Speaker 5: Quite a statement from David Einhorn. He spoke to barrybit Holtz,
Speaker 5: who's the host of Masters in Business on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 3: Here's part of that conversation.
Speaker 7: I view the markets as fundamentally broken, like the fundamentally broken.
Speaker 2: That's a big statement.
Speaker 7: Yeah, there's value is just not a consideration for most
Speaker 7: investment money that's out there. There's all the machine money
Speaker 7: and algorithmic money, which doesn't have an opinion about value.
Speaker 7: It has an opinion about price, like what is the
Speaker 7: price going to be in fifteen minutes and I want
Speaker 7: to be ahead of that? Or zero day options, what
Speaker 7: is the price of the S and P or what
Speaker 7: stock you're doing for today, what's it going to be
Speaker 7: in the next half hour, two hours, three hours. Those
Speaker 7: are opinions about price. Those are not opinions about value.
Speaker 7: Passive investors have no opinion about value. They're going to
Speaker 7: assume everybody else has done the work right, right, and
Speaker 7: then you have all of what's left of active management,
Speaker 7: and so much of it the value industry has gotten
Speaker 7: completely annihilated.
Speaker 5: That was David Einhorn speaking to Barry good Holtz, who
Speaker 5: is the host of Masters in Business podcast. You can
Speaker 5: definitely listen to the whole interview on that podcast. Barry
Speaker 5: joins us now in the studio.
Speaker 3: Barry, what was your takeaway from the interview?
Speaker 5: I mean, you could argue, obviously he's talking his book,
Speaker 5: but today is a beautiful case in point of like
Speaker 5: nearing five thousand on a couple big tech stocks and
Speaker 5: that's it.
Speaker 8: So there were a couple of big takeaways. You know,
Speaker 8: we didn't talk about what he said surrounding the SEC
Speaker 8: no longer really enforcing things. She had to all enforce
Speaker 8: a little bit of insart or trading rules, but there's
Speaker 8: an absence there, according to Einhorn. To me, what's really
Speaker 8: fascinating about him is, here's a guy who had a
Speaker 8: spectacular start to his career first fifteen years, put up
Speaker 8: incredible numbers, famously shorted Allied Capital, famously shorted Lehman Brothers
Speaker 8: right before they went bankrupt, and then hit a rough
Speaker 8: stretch in the twenty tens. Normally that's where a story
Speaker 8: would end. But what makes Einhorn such a fascinating investor
Speaker 8: and analyst, and he was very proud to describe himself
Speaker 8: as an analyst, is they rethought their strategy. They looked
Speaker 8: at what's changed in the structure of the market and said,
Speaker 8: we can no longer do basic superficial value investing and
Speaker 8: hope the market catches up. We have to change our metrics,
Speaker 8: we have to change our approach. And for the past
Speaker 8: five years they've been putting up really good numbers. The
Speaker 8: shift has worked.
Speaker 2: What did they change? What did they change till I
Speaker 2: guess so?
Speaker 8: What their belief and their strategy used to be is
Speaker 8: find stocks that the market doesn't recognize the value what
Speaker 8: he described as variant perception, buy them and wait for
Speaker 8: the market to figure it out. Hey, you know, we
Speaker 8: buy stocks if the pe of the market is sixteen,
Speaker 8: we can find stocks with a pe of twelve and
Speaker 8: eventually everybody will come to our party, he said. As
Speaker 8: value investors have seen outflows as value funds have gone
Speaker 8: out of business.
Speaker 2: You can't rely on.
Speaker 8: That sector to do that. So now we have to
Speaker 8: find deep value stocks that are taking matters into their
Speaker 8: own hands.
Speaker 2: What do you mean by.
Speaker 8: That, Well, cheap companies that have enough growth and enough
Speaker 8: cash flow to do big increases in dividends, big increases
Speaker 8: in share buybacks, and even if the rest of the
Speaker 8: market doesn't figure out their own business model, will allow
Speaker 8: their stock price to grow by returning capital to shareholders
Speaker 8: through buybacks and dividends.
Speaker 3: And that gets harder though.
Speaker 5: Isn't everybody looking for exactly the same thing in a
Speaker 5: smaller pool of candidates.
Speaker 8: You know, back when I was on a trading desk
Speaker 8: in the nineteen nineties, in the medieval times, there were
Speaker 8: thousands and thousands of sales side analysts, and everybody was
Speaker 8: looking for those sort of stocks, and there was there's
Speaker 8: something to be said for the shift, and I think
Speaker 8: he got this right. Algorithmic trading, quantitative analysis and passive
Speaker 8: investing has eliminated a huge number of those analysts. Then
Speaker 8: you take you know, the Wilshire five thousand is thirty
Speaker 8: four hundred stocks. There aren't as many stocks as there
Speaker 8: once were. Anything that small cap or microcap is completely overlooked.
Speaker 8: And so the odd thing about price discovery and passive
Speaker 8: investing is it's created these inefficiencies where value is getting overlooked.
Speaker 8: If everybody is doing either growth or passive, it creates
Speaker 8: an opportunity for investors like Einhorn.
Speaker 2: Do we know how much assets he has under mounage.
Speaker 8: I think it's about three or four billion dollars. I
Speaker 8: mean it's off his peak. He went through a period
Speaker 8: in the mid twenty tens markets up ten twelve percent.
Speaker 8: They're down eight ten twelve percent. They saw a bunch
Speaker 8: of outflows after really putting some big numbers up. In fact,
Speaker 8: over since inception in ninety six, they've still outperformed the
Speaker 8: S ANDP by just about double Maybe it's a touch
Speaker 8: light of that, but not on an annual basis total
Speaker 8: courtesy of compounding for twenty plus years. But there was
Speaker 8: the period in the twenty tens where he spent nearly
Speaker 8: the whole decade not putting up great numbers. And it's
Speaker 8: only the past five years that Greenlight has begun to
Speaker 8: outperform again. And that's what this second act is very
Speaker 8: unusual in finance. Most people don't say, Okay, I'm going
Speaker 8: to take everything I've done for the past twenty years,
Speaker 8: throw it out and start over. I give a lot
Speaker 8: of credit to him.
Speaker 5: What's interesting too is that he mentioned you know, al goes, etc.
Speaker 5: But also one of the top right articles, also right
Speaker 5: now in the terminal is meme trader is fueling an
Speaker 5: over twenty six hundred percent spike in a holographic tech firm,
Speaker 5: meaning that like misadigive plotin getting taken out by a
Speaker 5: bunch of random guys sitting at home on a computer
Speaker 5: like that must be very difficult too for him to
Speaker 5: sort of reckon with.
Speaker 8: You know, the funny thing when you see that take
Speaker 8: place is you have to realize that even a huge
Speaker 8: thousand percent move in some of these meme stocks, they
Speaker 8: have to be supported by the fundamentals. Eventually, you know,
Speaker 8: markets will eventually.
Speaker 3: Maybe bed bath and beyond a disagree.
Speaker 8: Right, Well, but you know, when we look at what
Speaker 8: happened with AMC, perfect example, they very intelligently said, hey,
Speaker 8: what's our stock price doing up? Yere, let's float some
Speaker 8: float some shares, Let's get get some capital in. And
Speaker 8: they were able to very inexpensively clean up their balance
Speaker 8: sheet in a way that most me companies don't get
Speaker 8: an option, don't get an opportunity to. So. So Yeah,
Speaker 8: and if you look at all those memestocks, they're all
Speaker 8: around trips, every last one of them is. You know,
Speaker 8: they've run up one thousand percent, they've given back ninety
Speaker 8: percent of those gains go bankrupt, right they've been Hey,
Speaker 8: by the way, if you want to buy a bankrupt company,
Speaker 8: then maybe you're not before the bankruptcy filing afterwards a
Speaker 8: different conversation, but before maybe you're not a really good
Speaker 8: fundamental investor. You're just playing that trend. I think Einhorn
Speaker 8: and we didn't talk about the meme stocks very much,
Speaker 8: but I think he would be he would be intended
Speaker 8: to you know, short those all.
Speaker 5: Right, Barry, thanks a lot, really appreciate it wonderful to
Speaker 5: get you in here. I Barry Ritholtz joining us. You
Speaker 5: can download the Masters in Business podcast right now at
Speaker 5: Bloomberg dot com or wherever you get your podcast. Catch
Speaker 5: the show every Saturday at ten am Wall Street Time
Speaker 5: on Bloomberg Radio. Gonna be a great conversation. I'm really
Speaker 5: looking forward to this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah. Absolutely. I don't know how he gets all these
Speaker 2: good guests. I think it's because he's a good interviewer.
Speaker 2: He's got a lot of people that download his podcast,
Speaker 2: so it's worth your times.
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Speaker 5: We're like almost close to five thousand on the SMD,
Speaker 5: so I realize it's a round number, but we still care.
Speaker 3: Let's see if Dan Griffith cares.
Speaker 5: He is a Huntington private bank. He's a vice president,
Speaker 5: the senior vice president there and director of wealth Strategy. Dan,
Speaker 5: I appreciate that your longer term and like five thousand
Speaker 5: won't mean a lot. However, what I keeping struck by
Speaker 5: is that we are continually over sold, way above our skis,
Speaker 5: but no one wants to sell right now as we
Speaker 5: near five thousand.
Speaker 9: No, I think that's right. I think what's interesting is
Speaker 9: as maybe this is for retail customers too. The five
Speaker 9: thousand number does make a difference because broadly it gets
Speaker 9: people to say, oh, maybe there is some confidence in
Speaker 9: the market, and I think there are a lot of
Speaker 9: underlying factors that support that. But I think round numbers
Speaker 9: sometimes do kind of wake people up and get them
Speaker 9: to say, maybe this is something I should pay a
Speaker 9: little more attention to.
Speaker 2: So what are you paying attention to these days?
Speaker 1: Dan?
Speaker 2: We had a great finish to twenty twenty three, probably
Speaker 2: took a lot of investors, you know, by surprise. Here.
Speaker 2: What are we doing here in February?
Speaker 9: A lot of I think we're looking at a lot
Speaker 9: of core numbers, and right now a lot of them
Speaker 9: look very positive.
Speaker 8: You know.
Speaker 9: Obviously we're looking for earnings growth next year. This year,
Speaker 9: you know, maybe ten percent or more. We're looking at
Speaker 9: jobless numbers.
Speaker 2: Again.
Speaker 9: We got a good number this morning, which I thought
Speaker 9: was really positive on the heels of you know, some
Speaker 9: great numbers earlier this month, and we're looking at the
Speaker 9: sentiment of our customers.
Speaker 2: In particular.
Speaker 9: We are a great middle market bank that does a
Speaker 9: wonderful job, particularly in the Midwest, particularly in manufacturing, and
Speaker 9: as we talk to our clients, they say, we're really
Speaker 9: optimistic about a lot of things, which is reflected in
Speaker 9: the ism numbers that you know earlier this month that
Speaker 9: we're pretty positive.
Speaker 2: So I think what.
Speaker 9: We're looking at is the core fundamentals. Even if we
Speaker 9: have a little bit of a slowdown later this year,
Speaker 9: which we're still fifty to fifty and have been for
Speaker 9: quite some time, we think that that will probably be
Speaker 9: a pretty modest pullback, that the economy is healthy enough
Speaker 9: to recover from.
Speaker 5: Well, let's be honest, it's still big tech. I mean,
Speaker 5: you look at the SMP equal weighted and we have
Speaker 5: definitely hit resistance. SMP moves higher. Yeah, okay, you get
Speaker 5: the Russell is having a little bit of a bounce today,
Speaker 5: but this is not a widespread rally.
Speaker 3: So what do you do.
Speaker 9: I think there's some validity to that. I think it's
Speaker 9: it's better than it used to be. Maybe that might
Speaker 9: be the way to describe it.
Speaker 3: We thought, okay, that's right exactly.
Speaker 9: I think the recovery is a little broader this year.
Speaker 9: Obviously it's still still one sided to some degree, but
Speaker 9: you know, the earnings beats we saw were eighty percent
Speaker 9: across the board, and that's a good example of where
Speaker 9: we think that recovery is maybe broader than it would
Speaker 9: have been in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2: So what are some of the industries that are the
Speaker 2: sectors that you guys look at for opportunity here? I mean,
Speaker 2: John Tucker's belonging the Magnificent Seven, but the rest of
Speaker 2: us are looking for some value here.
Speaker 9: I think, well, I think that's where to look around
Speaker 9: to say, if the the remainder of the sectors are
Speaker 9: going to be able to recover in ways the Magnificent
Speaker 9: Seven weren't, or they'll be able to kind of mirror
Speaker 9: what happened in twenty twenty three. And some of the
Speaker 9: sectors we're looking for are the ones that have been
Speaker 9: left out a little bit. Some of that also is
Speaker 9: going to be, you know, sectors that are less interested
Speaker 9: in interest rate fluctuation, so we're looking at that as well.
Speaker 9: So again, a lot of manufacturing is less related to
Speaker 9: interest rate, and so as a result, they're looking at
Speaker 9: just core supply chain, core demand, with consumer sentiments still
Speaker 9: being really close to one hundred. Again, a lot of
Speaker 9: them are very optimistic, and so there's upside there too.
Speaker 5: So let's talk about the industrial sector because it's so
Speaker 5: interesting with all the Infrastructure Act, the Chip Act, and
Speaker 5: the IRA, which is a structural story for these guys,
Speaker 5: But in terms of order books and actual profits and
Speaker 5: money in hand, we haven't seen that happen. How do
Speaker 5: you think that cycle plays out? And then how do
Speaker 5: you manage that as an investor? I think there are
Speaker 5: two things that are irrelevant.
Speaker 9: One is that we are starting to see inventories in
Speaker 9: demand start to just the beginning of them start to
Speaker 9: tick up a little bit. So I think we're we're
Speaker 9: just watching the wave begin to grow there. And again,
Speaker 9: in the conversations I get to have every day with
Speaker 9: business owners, I see that on a kind of case
Speaker 9: by case basis, there's optimism there that makes sense. If
Speaker 9: you look back at twenty twenty two, part of the
Speaker 9: strength that we see in the market today is that
Speaker 9: people were building in a potential recession in twenty twenty three,
Speaker 9: so they kind of tightened their belts and looked around
Speaker 9: and said, hey, what do we need to do to
Speaker 9: prepare for a recession that ultimately didn't happen. And so
Speaker 9: as a result, many of those companies have a core
Speaker 9: strength going into twenty twenty four right now that results
Speaker 9: from some really conservative behavior, and I think, particularly in manufacturing,
Speaker 9: that is a great example of that. So I think
Speaker 9: a lot of people are coming from a very solid
Speaker 9: foundation that isn't as interest rate restricted as we mentioned before,
Speaker 9: and so as a result, I think they're going to
Speaker 9: do well as we move into this year.
Speaker 2: One of the names that you guys talked about Parker
Speaker 2: Hannafin based in Cleveland, Ohio, Northeast Ohio.
Speaker 3: Company that's right, that.
Speaker 2: Is manufacturing and stocks up eleven percent year to date,
Speaker 2: up about forty seven percent of the trailing twelve months.
Speaker 2: So it's been a good call. What's your play there?
Speaker 9: Well, I think there are two things that are kind
Speaker 9: of a good news bad news scenario. One of them
Speaker 9: is that as manufacturing and industry kind of recovers, they're going.
Speaker 2: To recover, right.
Speaker 9: They benefit from that as their core business, and that's
Speaker 9: the good news the bad news for them or maybe
Speaker 9: for other folks, is they really benefit from people like
Speaker 9: Boeing and Airbus kind of stubbing their toe a little bit.
Speaker 9: So as Boeing has suffered some bad news, that's kind
Speaker 9: of good news for Parker Hannafin. Unfortunately, it doesn't look
Speaker 9: like that news is going to go an go away
Speaker 9: anytime soon, and so we think that's that's a play
Speaker 9: and something that our folks are looking at.
Speaker 5: You know, what Paul did, He left me Exon and
Speaker 5: there's Microsoft. We'll get to that. But you like Exon,
Speaker 5: I can't blame you after that quarter? What do you
Speaker 5: like about them? Could you still buy here?
Speaker 3: Yes?
Speaker 2: I think so.
Speaker 9: We've been excited about them for a long time, and
Speaker 9: obviously it's kind of funny to come back and say
Speaker 9: we're still excited.
Speaker 2: We still think it's good.
Speaker 9: And fortunately good earnings news kind of played out well there.
Speaker 9: We think their play in the in the shale, the
Speaker 9: Permian and shale where they are right now, that is
Speaker 9: kind of just beginning to come out. And I also
Speaker 9: think the fact that they are a much more vertical
Speaker 9: company makes a big difference, you know, because they have
Speaker 9: the opportunity to if oil is volatile, they're still working
Speaker 9: on the chemical side as well, So we think the
Speaker 9: vertical nature of their company makes it makes it something
Speaker 9: that is a lot more attractive than even others appeers
Speaker 9: in their sector.
Speaker 2: Alex do people even talk about peak oil anymore?
Speaker 5: No, no, no, but I mean yes, no, that'll always
Speaker 5: come back. But if what we've learned in the past
Speaker 5: fifteen years is that US oil companies will innovate like crazy,
Speaker 5: and they can and they can execute like the permium
Speaker 5: revolution on the show, revolution that happened from like the small.
Speaker 3: Guys, not the big guys. So as long as we have.
Speaker 5: That innovation there, it's going to be hard to really
Speaker 5: see that the peak demand thing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's the question we ad.
Speaker 5: We're definitely not at, but that's what we're definitely headed
Speaker 5: to that at some point. Hence Saudi Arabia, you know,
Speaker 5: pulling back on what they're going to be producing in
Speaker 5: terms of thirteen million barrels a day and developing a
Speaker 5: twelve million.
Speaker 3: Right like you have. The end is coming, but it
Speaker 3: could be coming like forty years later.
Speaker 2: Saudi ramcod do. I guess a secondary offering now with
Speaker 2: Bolmi Saxon City twenty billion dollars offering. So it's a
Speaker 2: nice payday. Yeah, yeah, how that goes? Because I got
Speaker 2: rent Crew, it's still at eighty bucks. Good time to
Speaker 2: sell some stock, I would think, right, all right? Another
Speaker 2: I think name that our analysts here at Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 2: are super bullish on is Microsoft. So what's your call there? Again?
Speaker 3: Kind of singing the same song.
Speaker 2: I hate to do it.
Speaker 9: Not particularly innovative, but I think if you look at it,
Speaker 9: we used to talk about Microsoft as, you know, a
Speaker 9: computing company. Now you look at it and say they're computing,
Speaker 9: they're a cloud company, they're a gaming company, their AI company,
Speaker 9: and in particular, if you look back, they're really starting
Speaker 9: to report meaningful profits from their AI business. And so
Speaker 9: obviously we think that's the beginning of a wave as well.
Speaker 9: There's lots of reasons to think that Microsoft has some upside.
Speaker 2: I'm looking at the an R function for Microsoft. A
Speaker 2: couple things jump out of me. First sixty five analysts
Speaker 2: cover the stock. How efficient is that? That's a lots
Speaker 2: five holds no cells? So Street likes it.
Speaker 8: Yes.
Speaker 5: What I also love about these picks is that these
Speaker 5: are like I mean, I appreciate Microsoft is at the
Speaker 5: forefront of AI, but they're also like old school real
Speaker 5: economy companies. Again, I realized that Microsoft might be treading
Speaker 5: that line in a big, big way. But like a
Speaker 5: Parker Hannat been in an Exxon like, these are not
Speaker 5: We're going to get into a recession.
Speaker 3: Everything's going to be terrible. You can only a bet
Speaker 3: On AI right.
Speaker 9: Well, I think Outset's right right. Exon's another example of
Speaker 9: where you've got wonderful core fundamentals and that vertical piece
Speaker 9: that we talked about, and on top of that, they've
Speaker 9: got the horsepower and ability and a track record I
Speaker 9: think in both cases to do the kind of innovation
Speaker 9: that's going to bring them into the future in a
Speaker 9: meaningful way. And those are the kind of companies we
Speaker 9: really like.
Speaker 2: All Right, very good Dan, thanks for making the trip in.
Speaker 2: Thanks for having me. Dan, Yes, Senior vice president and
Speaker 2: director of Wealth Strategy, Huntington Private Bank.
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Speaker 5: So something that's on my radar. It may have faded
Speaker 5: a little bit from yours, but it is important. Is
Speaker 5: the Biden administration placing a moratorium on LG export projects
Speaker 5: to non FTA countries.
Speaker 3: It was huge.
Speaker 5: I was in Florence and it was a huge, huge deal.
Speaker 5: Everyone was complaining about it. Everyone was worried about it,
Speaker 5: and no one understands it. So let's get into it,
Speaker 5: because Joe Manchin certainly is so today this is what's happening.
Speaker 5: The Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, which is led
Speaker 5: by West Virginia Democrat Joe Mansion, is probing the administration's decision,
Speaker 5: and they're holding a hearing on the issue, at which
Speaker 5: Deputy Secretary of Energy David Turk will be there. This
Speaker 5: is just one of many hearings on this has many
Speaker 5: got a lot of head scratching when this came out,
Speaker 5: So let's get some more insight here. Dustin Meyer is
Speaker 5: Senior VP of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs at the
Speaker 5: American Petroleum Institute down in DC.
Speaker 3: What do you think, Dustin? We can expect. I realized
Speaker 3: for some people this may feel.
Speaker 5: Niche, but This is a huge moment for energy in
Speaker 5: our country in terms of wealth and in terms of security.
Speaker 10: Yeah, you got to write, Alex, I mean the benefits
Speaker 10: of USL ANDNG are clearer now than ever. I mean,
Speaker 10: the role that USL and G has played, especially in
Speaker 10: the last couple of years, in helping our allies in
Speaker 10: Europe displaced Russian pipeline gas is really difficult to overstate.
Speaker 10: But beyond the geopolitical benefits, the benefits to the US
Speaker 10: economy are equally obvious. These projects are enormous creators of
Speaker 10: job down in the Gulf coat wherever they're developed. This
Speaker 10: is a really good thing for our country. This is
Speaker 10: a really good thing for our allies. That's why we
Speaker 10: think it's so unbelievably misguided for the administration to be
Speaker 10: issuing this pause right now.
Speaker 2: What is the reasoning from the administration for issuing this pause.
Speaker 10: They would cite a lot of things. I think most
Speaker 10: people would agree that this is pretty nakedly political in
Speaker 10: what they are doing. But they would cite concerns over
Speaker 10: what is the impact on domestic natural gas prices, what
Speaker 10: is the climate impact, and how does this play with
Speaker 10: the evolving transition around the energy landscape. We think at
Speaker 10: this stage we don't need to do studies on this anymore.
Speaker 10: We have the proof we've been exporting for seven years.
Speaker 10: We have the evidence that can show the enormous economic benefits,
Speaker 10: that can show the enormous geopolitical benefits, and that can
Speaker 10: show the enormous environmental benefits. Everywhere around the world when
Speaker 10: gas gets scars, countries turned back to coal. That's why
Speaker 10: it's incredibly important for us to maintain that reliable and
Speaker 10: abundant supply from the United States.
Speaker 5: And which Paul is also a head scratcher, because if
Speaker 5: you're worried about methane emissions from natural gas, then like
Speaker 5: limit production, Like why like that' sports the endgame, right,
Speaker 5: So that a little bit of head scratcher too, So Dustin,
Speaker 5: I mean, fair enough, it's political. So why do we
Speaker 5: really care come November six, isn't this just gonna all
Speaker 5: magically go away?
Speaker 10: Well, it depends on the you know, incoming what the
Speaker 10: result of the election is. But we think that there's
Speaker 10: already serious consequences of doing this pause. There's a lot
Speaker 10: of buyer appetite out there right now for more leg
Speaker 10: right buyers from Japan, from Korea, from Europe, from Brazil,
Speaker 10: from India, from everywhere or everywhere around the world. They
Speaker 10: want more gas. They would love to get it from
Speaker 10: the United States. But this sends a very chilling message
Speaker 10: to investors and to potential buyers.
Speaker 2: Dustin, how big of a player is the United States
Speaker 2: and the global LNG market?
Speaker 10: Oh, We're huge. So we are right now the world's
Speaker 10: largest LG exporter. As a reminder, it wasn't that long
Speaker 10: ago when the United States was not just an importer
Speaker 10: of lergy. We were projected by many to be the
Speaker 10: world's largest importer of lergy. So that massive transformation and
Speaker 10: has of course been good for the United States, but
Speaker 10: that's brought enormous benefits overseas as well. So as the
Speaker 10: world's largest LG exporter. You know, it was US who
Speaker 10: is able to redirect our flows in twenty twenty two
Speaker 10: to Europe to make sure that they could displace that
Speaker 10: Russian pipeline gas that their system had become dependent on.
Speaker 10: It's a really good thing to have these cargoes out
Speaker 10: there on the water, but everyone recognizes that we're going
Speaker 10: to need even more. We need a clear permitting process
Speaker 10: for doing exactly that, and that's what this pause jeopardizes.
Speaker 5: Here's my question, justin where in this may there be
Speaker 5: a point like where should we be a little bit
Speaker 5: more judicial in how we issue permits and how things
Speaker 5: are built? Like where's the point?
Speaker 10: Yeah, Well, no one is suggesting that there shouldn't be
Speaker 10: a process, but there is already a very well established
Speaker 10: and frankly fairly time consuming process for an LNG export
Speaker 10: project to get approved in the United States. First you
Speaker 10: need to permit from the DOE for exports to free
Speaker 10: trade countries, Then you have to go through a very lengthy,
Speaker 10: comprehensive pork review, and then finally you get your permit
Speaker 10: from DOE for exports to non FTA countries. Nobody's suggesting
Speaker 10: that we shouldn't have a process. All were suggesting is
Speaker 10: that process should be clear and transparent and should use
Speaker 10: buy and large the process that not just the previous administration,
Speaker 10: but the Obama administration before it used. Remember, most of
Speaker 10: the projects that are exporting today are a result of
Speaker 10: approvals from the Obama administration because the Obama administration understood
Speaker 10: the geopolitical benefits, they understood the environmental benefits, and they
Speaker 10: understood the local economic benefits. Here in the United States.
Speaker 10: That's all. We're suggesting that we should maintain that review process.
Speaker 2: What type of response, if any, can the energy industry
Speaker 2: do to kind of I don't know, either reverse this,
Speaker 2: get around it, call him, yes, go.
Speaker 3: To DC and touch lovemakers.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 10: Yeah, And look, we have We have been talking with
Speaker 10: a lot of folks on the hill and around the
Speaker 10: Hill to make sure they understand the ramifications of this.
Speaker 10: We strongly believe that LNG has a great role to
Speaker 10: play in reducing emissions around the world and bolster and
Speaker 10: the energy security of our allies. Our allies have been
Speaker 10: very clear about this as well, and so we have
Speaker 10: to communicate around this and make that abundantly clear. I
Speaker 10: would note that there's so much that the industry is doing,
Speaker 10: for example, on reducing methane emissions across our value chain.
Speaker 10: That is a good thing that we're doing. That we're
Speaker 10: doing to reduce emissions at the liquefaction sites themselves. Those
Speaker 10: are important questions. We're working on that very hard. We
Speaker 10: think that that cements and even further extends the value
Speaker 10: proposition of LNG at this time. A lot of this
Speaker 10: conversation always proceeds as if coal demand around the world
Speaker 10: has already been eliminated, or that in fact is falling precipitously.
Speaker 10: Nothing could be further from the truth. Coal demand last
Speaker 10: year set a new record level. Most forecasters expect it
Speaker 10: will be a new record this year as well. If
Speaker 10: you look at the energy outlooks for China, for India,
Speaker 10: for Vietnam, for major Asian economies, you can see they
Speaker 10: are left with the choice between coal or natural gas.
Speaker 10: We think that choice is pretty clear. It should be
Speaker 10: natural gas.
Speaker 3: All right, Dustin, thanks so much, appreciate you. What happening on.
Speaker 3: I know it's a busy day for you.
Speaker 5: Dustin Meyer, Senior VP of Policy, Economics and Regulatory Affairs
Speaker 5: at the American Petroleum Institute. And what he brings up
Speaker 5: at the end, there is the idea of energy equality.
Speaker 5: It's different to see it here versus like India or
Speaker 5: Africa or countries that don't have any power or minimal
Speaker 5: power at all. And then how do you go from
Speaker 5: something like cold to solar or nothing to solar, like
Speaker 5: there's just not the infrastructure or the money to do that.
Speaker 2: And I just remember from you know, the first year
Speaker 2: the Russian invasion of Ukraine, European country is saying we're
Speaker 2: going to build floating plants to liquid to what is it, reliquify,
Speaker 2: re liquifed yea, yeah, so it comes across on the
Speaker 2: ship from the US and then we can you know,
Speaker 2: they have them.
Speaker 3: They're good, they're they're building them up, they're they're floating outside.
Speaker 3: They're good. Yeah, it's pretty amazing.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is so key. On top of that, Alex
Speaker 2: will make sure we stay on top of that story.
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