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Speaker 2: Grab a shovel and welcome to the Friday edition of
Speaker 2: Balance of Power. You made it to the threshold of
Speaker 2: the weekend here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and
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Speaker 2: all day from DC and New York, and you're always
Speaker 2: welcome in our studios. As we get ready to shiver
Speaker 2: this weekend here in Washington, Welcome to Fortress, DC. I
Speaker 2: don't even know how to get to work anymore, with
Speaker 2: so many streets closed, thirty miles of security fencing. We're
Speaker 2: told hundreds of thousands on the way into town. There
Speaker 2: is not a hotel room to be had. I know
Speaker 2: this firsthand after looking at the forecast. We have a
Speaker 2: major update on the plan from Monday. The headline on
Speaker 2: the Washington Post, home of the Capitol Weather Gang accumulating
Speaker 2: snow could fall Sunday before brutal cold on Inauguration Day.
Speaker 2: And yeah, boy, that's gonna be it nine degrees, says
Speaker 2: the Google. The nine degree low high of twenty four.
Speaker 2: And when you're on the west front of the Capitol
Speaker 2: at that time of day, this time of year, you're
Speaker 2: in shadow for the whole time. And so Donald Trump
Speaker 2: now has a new reason to compare himself to Ronald Reagan.
Speaker 2: The headline screaming inauguration moves indoors for the first time
Speaker 2: in forty years, making us all feel a little bit older.
Speaker 2: Yeah that was nineteen eighty five. Remember Ronald Reagan, it
Speaker 2: was seven degrees outside. It's gonna be nine on Monday,
Speaker 2: Barack Obama. Remember two thousand and eight, it was ten balmy.
Speaker 2: So Donald Trump takes to truth. Social January twentieth cannot
Speaker 2: come fast enough, he says. Everybody, even those that initially
Speaker 2: opposed a victory, he says, by Donald Trump, just want
Speaker 2: it to happen. Out of his obligation to protect the
Speaker 2: people of our country, He says, we have to think
Speaker 2: of the inauguration itself, pointing to the forecast the windchill factor,
Speaker 2: which would be sub zero doesn't want to see people
Speaker 2: hurt or injured in any way, and so yes, he says,
Speaker 2: I have ordered the inauguration address, in addition to prayers
Speaker 2: and other speeches, to be delivered in the United States
Speaker 2: Capital Rotunda, as was used by Ronald Reagan in nineteen
Speaker 2: eighty five, also because of very cold weather. So not
Speaker 2: only is every field producer at every television network in
Speaker 2: Washington freaking out right now because it's going to be
Speaker 2: a whole different show, so too are those in the
Speaker 2: Capitol think of the logistics that are going to have
Speaker 2: to be changed. Lisa Camuso Miller joins us now, of course,
Speaker 2: a veteran of the Republican Ledhouse of Representatives, a veteran
Speaker 2: of the Speaker's office, former RNC communications director. It's great
Speaker 2: to see you, Lisa. Are you cold already? And can
Speaker 2: you believe this is moving inside? What does this mean
Speaker 2: for the plan?
Speaker 3: Well?
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, look, these are these are the
Speaker 4: kinds of contingencies that Secret Service and law enforcement and
Speaker 4: the Capital consider every single time we inaugurate a president.
Speaker 4: So the fact that they've advised this, that they think
Speaker 4: that this is the right council is good. I mean,
Speaker 4: it makes it different, and I can feel the scramble
Speaker 4: sort of amongst all of the TV and the media folks,
Speaker 4: for sure. But all of these contingencies are always built
Speaker 4: in regardless of what the weather's going to be, Joe.
Speaker 4: I was there in two thousand and one, my gosh,
Speaker 4: twenty four years ago now, and it was pretty cold
Speaker 4: then when George W. Bush was inaugurated, and it was raining,
Speaker 4: and it was really there are so many people out
Speaker 4: on the lawn. I actually saw a report, Joe that
Speaker 4: perhaps they're going to open Capital one Arena, and I'm
Speaker 4: not so sure about what those details are, but there's
Speaker 4: there's a lot.
Speaker 2: I got news on that. As a matter of fact,
Speaker 2: now that you're brough, I hate to interrupt you, Lisa,
Speaker 2: but I left that part out. Donald Trump writes, we
Speaker 2: will open Capital one Arena on Monday for live viewing
Speaker 2: of this historic event and to host the presidential parade.
Speaker 2: There's more. I will join the crowd at Capital One
Speaker 2: after my swearing in, So the night earlier, he's got
Speaker 2: the big night before pep Rally or whatever we're calling it.
Speaker 2: In that same space, Lisa, how in the world are
Speaker 2: all these people going to fit in there, complete with
Speaker 2: Secret Service level security for a newly sworn in president
Speaker 2: of the United States. I'm guessing you don't want to
Speaker 2: go anywhere near it.
Speaker 4: Well, I mean, just like any other big event. I mean,
Speaker 4: it certainly will be one to get into. And you know,
Speaker 4: as they allow for these tickets, each one of these
Speaker 4: tickets have tiers, right, so every one of them, people
Speaker 4: get chances to sit up close, people get so there'll
Speaker 4: be lots of opportunity. But you know, as much as
Speaker 4: this feels like a major shift, it's also one of
Speaker 4: those things that when you're moving the president of the
Speaker 4: United States, there are contingencies for everything. And when you
Speaker 4: watch these things unfold, they have already considered all of
Speaker 4: these options. So for those of us who are watching
Speaker 4: at home, luckily we get to stay warm. I could
Speaker 4: not imagine sitting on the West Front and watching that
Speaker 4: happen in nine degree weather with snow Perhapsah.
Speaker 2: So you make a great point, a boy, I was
Speaker 2: there too in two thousand and one. I remember my
Speaker 2: poor mother shivering outside and what was freezing rain right
Speaker 2: there was mud on the ground, freezing rain falling. George W.
Speaker 2: Bush and Bill Clinton are up there in this miserable
Speaker 2: weather up on the platform, and you know, they talked
Speaker 2: about moving it inside potentially that year too, which did
Speaker 2: not end up happening. So this is like a combination
Speaker 2: of George W. Bush's swearing in with the get snow
Speaker 2: and freezing rain and then the temperatures that Ronald Reagan experience.
Speaker 2: That's a pretty nasty combination. Does Donald Trump actually this
Speaker 2: idea because he doesn't have to prove crowd size if
Speaker 2: they move it inside.
Speaker 5: I don't know.
Speaker 4: I mean, maybe you know. But the other thing too
Speaker 4: is that I think that more than anything else in
Speaker 4: these circumstances, Joe more than any other.
Speaker 6: I think.
Speaker 4: The one thing that I saw that the President elect
Speaker 4: has noted is that law enforcement and those people that
Speaker 4: are out all day long. It's less about those of
Speaker 4: us who are sitting in the audience, and even less
Speaker 4: about those who get brought in right before the event starts.
Speaker 4: It's those who are really on the front lines who
Speaker 4: are there making sure. I meant you mentioned those thousands
Speaker 4: of they're everywhere you go in the city is closed
Speaker 4: off because of security, and so there is a huge
Speaker 4: amount of impact beyond just sort of the pomp and
Speaker 4: circumstance of the day that really affects just about everybody.
Speaker 5: So this really is.
Speaker 4: A very probably a very good call for a very
Speaker 4: cold day, and one that I think those who are
Speaker 4: around the Capital region are probably somewhat relieved, although they
Speaker 4: will still definitely be in their posts and working those
Speaker 4: checkpoints all right.
Speaker 2: So Lisa Cabusa Miller has her endorsement here on moving
Speaker 2: this inside. By the way, if you want a little
Speaker 2: color from the ground here in the Capital City, Lisa,
Speaker 2: we got to work. Just in the last twenty four
Speaker 2: hours overnight these Jersey barriers showed up. They must have
Speaker 2: been dropping them all night. They must have had the
Speaker 2: trucks out all night. So on each corner of each
Speaker 2: intersection there's a pile of these concrete barriers. Presumably they
Speaker 2: will all be put in place along the side of
Speaker 2: the road at some point over the weekend here, but
Speaker 2: we're in shutdown mode quite like we've never seen. Donald
Speaker 2: Trump goes on to write in this very long truth post,
Speaker 2: wish I could read the whole thing to you here.
Speaker 2: It's just such classic Trump. It's not just the people, Lisa,
Speaker 2: the law enforcement, the first responders, he says, it's the
Speaker 2: police canines and even the horses. The horses would be
Speaker 2: too cold, Lisa, if you were worried about.
Speaker 4: Them, Well, those guys will still be out. I'm sure
Speaker 4: they'll still be out out and about because they have
Speaker 4: a job to do.
Speaker 2: What happens to all the people on the mall, I
Speaker 2: mean they're going to have to put on the jumbo
Speaker 2: tron right now. Everyone's going to fit in the Capitol
Speaker 2: One Arena or want to go in there.
Speaker 4: For sure, And it makes you wonder how many people
Speaker 4: will come out because it will be cold, but and
Speaker 4: it's going to be regardless. I think that the crowd sizes,
Speaker 4: as we joke about the crowd sizes here, they'll be
Speaker 4: interesting to see because with the cold and with the
Speaker 4: indoor programming, perhaps that means that people stay home. But
Speaker 4: also too, as you said, Joe, it's nearly impossible to
Speaker 4: get around the city right now because of all of
Speaker 4: the safety per questions that have been put in place,
Speaker 4: not only because of a variety of different reasons, but
Speaker 4: also because the city itself still has to function. It
Speaker 4: is also MLK Day on Monday, so it is a
Speaker 4: federal holiday, so at least the workforce will not be
Speaker 4: trying to get into the city. But this is still
Speaker 4: a functioning city, one that happens and moves regardless of
Speaker 4: whatever you know, pomp and circum stances happening throughout the day.
Speaker 4: So it'll be interesting to see how it comes together.
Speaker 2: I think I'm going to swim across the Potomac. I've
Speaker 2: decided that will be my way to get into the district.
Speaker 2: On apologies if you're not in the Washington area, this
Speaker 2: is no. I haven't actually managed to do that yet.
Speaker 2: I thought maybe I borrow yours. I don't mean to
Speaker 2: get too local for people who aren't in DC, but
Speaker 2: this is what's happening right now in our remaining minute,
Speaker 2: And now this is I'm setting you up. Tell me
Speaker 2: what you expect from the speech on Monday, whether it's
Speaker 2: indoors or out. Do we get American carnage as we
Speaker 2: did in his original swearing in ors? There's something more optimistic.
Speaker 4: It feels like the tone and the tenor to me,
Speaker 4: just based on sort of some of the messaging that
Speaker 4: I'm seeing is going to be one about offering hope,
Speaker 4: offering those those that that big red swath across the
Speaker 4: country that voted in favor of change and voting voted
Speaker 4: in change, excuse me, in favor of the Trump administration.
Speaker 4: I think we're going to hear about things that are
Speaker 4: going to happen right away, those kinds of movements, those
Speaker 4: kinds of executive orders, those kinds of legislative actions that
Speaker 4: this Congress and this administration are working already to make
Speaker 4: sure that they put in place and have happened.
Speaker 5: And so I would expect that.
Speaker 4: It would be a lighter tone and ten or more
Speaker 4: with optimism and hope and hope for change, because I
Speaker 4: think that that's the legacy he's hoping to leave behind
Speaker 4: as we get into this next administration.
Speaker 2: Well, I'm happy to tell you you'll be able to
Speaker 2: listen to it right here, watch it right here Bloomberg Radio, YouTube,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV as well. Kayley and I will start at
Speaker 2: eleven am Eastern Time with special coverage. Great to see you, Lisa.
Speaker 2: As always, I thought that would be just right for today.
Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Miller, the former RNC Communications director, host of
Speaker 2: the Friday Reporter podcast, who knows a thing or two
Speaker 2: about what happens on Capitol Hill. We've got a lot
Speaker 2: more to talk about next as Scotus ruling on TikTok.
Speaker 2: It's straight ahead right here on Balance of Power. This
Speaker 2: is Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: The inauguration moves indoors. It's quite a forecast. We're gonna
Speaker 2: get snow and rain, I guess on Sunday night when
Speaker 2: they're doing the big victory rally at the Capitol One Arena.
Speaker 2: The interesting part of this not only are they gonna
Speaker 2: do the swearing in, they're gonna go inside the rotunda,
Speaker 2: do the whole bit. Can you imagine the seating arrangement,
Speaker 2: what they're dealing with just on egos alone. As this
Speaker 2: moves inside, you know who's gonna be on that platform.
Speaker 2: It's every major CEO from high tech, including TikTok, which
Speaker 2: we're gonna talk about in just a second. But then
Speaker 2: he goes back to the arena on Monday, because you know,
Speaker 2: if he's not going to stand in front of a
Speaker 2: million people on the mall. He's gonna what's to get
Speaker 2: in front of a crowd Capital One Arena Monday, he says,
Speaker 2: a live viewing of this historic event. Then I will
Speaker 2: join the crowd after my swearing in. This is going
Speaker 2: to have to be a kid rock thing there. So
Speaker 2: the big news before this happened was TikTok. With ten
Speaker 2: o'clock in the morning, we saw it coming Scotus with
Speaker 2: a ruling. They upheld the law. They upheld the ban
Speaker 2: or dive vest dive vest or ban law that no
Speaker 2: one seems to like. Anymore interesting development over the hours
Speaker 2: of last evening that you might have heard about here
Speaker 2: before the SCOTUS ruled in, Joe Biden says he's not
Speaker 2: going to enforce the ban that was supposed to take
Speaker 2: effect this weekend, right the nineteenth, So he's basically leaving
Speaker 2: this to Donald Trump and Donald Trump. It's kind of
Speaker 2: all about TikTok now. Matt Shettenholm's been knee deep in
Speaker 2: this for months and months and months analyzing and reporting
Speaker 2: for Bloomberg Intelligence, and I'm glad to say he's at
Speaker 2: the table with us right now. Matt, thank you for
Speaker 2: coming in. So you know, you just read the headline,
Speaker 2: you think, wow, TikTok's going down this weekend. But these
Speaker 2: two presidents outgoing and incoming, seem to have different ideas.
Speaker 2: Law Makers who want to sympathize with Donald Trump suddenly
Speaker 2: loved TikTok even though it was a danger to America
Speaker 2: five minutes ago. What's going to happen this weekend? Does
Speaker 2: it go dark or is there an interruption?
Speaker 7: Well, TikTok told the Supreme Court last Friday that if
Speaker 7: the Supreme Court rules this way, it will go dark
Speaker 7: on Sunday. So it's a it's a really interesting question.
Speaker 7: And the key thing here is it's not necessarily up
Speaker 7: to the president's. Congress passed this law and it makes
Speaker 7: any company that makes TikTok available on Sunday or after
Speaker 7: that date liable for five thousand dollars per user. TikTok
Speaker 7: has one hundred and seventy million users. You do that math,
Speaker 7: you get to eight over eight hundred billion dollars in liability.
Speaker 7: So if you're a company that makes TikTok available, are
Speaker 7: you going to take the president's word on that? Or
Speaker 7: do you say, look, if you want us to keep
Speaker 7: making TikTok available, change the law, go back to Congress.
Speaker 2: So let's delineate though. Are we talking about it being
Speaker 2: available in the app stores or are we talking about
Speaker 2: what's actually on our phones? Because we were told, well,
Speaker 2: if they do ban it, it'll basimply kind of fade out.
Speaker 2: You won't be able to upgrade it at some point
Speaker 2: or update the app. But it's not like it's going
Speaker 2: to disappear from your phone. So what would happen to them?
Speaker 7: Exactly right, So the app won't disappear from your phone.
Speaker 7: But what the law says is that any company that
Speaker 7: one carries it in an app store and continues to
Speaker 7: make that available, but also any internet hosting service. So
Speaker 7: these companies that make TikTok work on the back end.
Speaker 7: So TikTok likely works with Oracle, It might work with
Speaker 7: other cloud computing companies to make all these videos load
Speaker 7: for you It companies can't operate within the United States
Speaker 7: to make the app keep updating within with the you know,
Speaker 7: for American users, unless they're willing to believe this promise
Speaker 7: that hey, we we won't enforce it. If President Trump
Speaker 7: comes out and says something like that and to me,
Speaker 7: that's a huge risk to take. If I'm a company,
Speaker 7: I'm not sure I would take it.
Speaker 2: Is there an expectation? And of course, again we've already
Speaker 2: referenced the CEO of TikTok's at a p at the inauguration,
Speaker 2: which you might have a take on. It's a remarkable
Speaker 2: bit of optics we're going to have. I guess I
Speaker 2: wonder will he be seated in the rotunda now that
Speaker 2: this is shrinking. That could be the first or one
Speaker 2: of the first eos from Donald Trump right to turn
Speaker 2: this around. Or would it have to be Congressional action
Speaker 2: to undo the law? I think we may see both.
Speaker 7: But the point though, is that an executive order from
Speaker 7: President Trump can't change the law. You know, he can say, look,
Speaker 7: I'm not going to enforce this law, but he can't
Speaker 7: go and change the fact that these companies face all
Speaker 7: this liability. So the logical path to change the law
Speaker 7: is to go back to Congress. I did think that
Speaker 7: Byte Dance and TikTok had some good news yesterday when
Speaker 7: Chuck Schumer came out and said.
Speaker 2: Look, wasn't that something.
Speaker 7: Yeah, we need to sell this app, we need to
Speaker 7: force a sale. But maybe we need to give him
Speaker 7: more time.
Speaker 2: Referring to the thousands or millions of influencers who make
Speaker 2: a living, they wouldn't be making money this weekend under
Speaker 2: that scenario. That's right.
Speaker 7: I think it could go dark temporarily, and then there's
Speaker 7: a question of can Congress fix it and maybe push
Speaker 7: it out another two hundred and seventy days to force
Speaker 7: that sale.
Speaker 2: Is somebody really buying this thing, Xelon buying it? What's
Speaker 2: happening with that, you know?
Speaker 7: Is the biggest question in my view is will byte
Speaker 7: Dance sell it? So even before you talk about who's
Speaker 7: going to go buy it, will Bite Dance sell it,
Speaker 7: Will China allow us sale? And any sale, is it
Speaker 7: going to involve the algorithm? And what good is getting
Speaker 7: TikTok if you don't get the algorithm? So to me,
Speaker 7: like that's the hang up on the sale. We need
Speaker 7: byte Dance to be willing to sell first.
Speaker 2: I told you he's been living this stuff. The perfect
Speaker 2: person to talk to you right now, Matt, Thank you
Speaker 2: so much. Matt Shettenhelm at the Great Bloomberg Intelligence, the
Speaker 2: home of Nathan Dean. He's going to come and talk
Speaker 2: to us next. We'll let you know what happens to
Speaker 2: TikTok over the weekend, or you can just look at
Speaker 2: your phone. It's a big political situation here in Washington. Obviously,
Speaker 2: this coming a day after Scott Bessen testified on Capitol Hill,
Speaker 2: and we're hearing he could be at least close to
Speaker 2: a day one confirmation our next Treasury secretary, who had
Speaker 2: a lot to say about tariffs and yes, taxes, specific
Speaker 2: the twenty seventeen Trump tax cuts.
Speaker 8: Let's listen, this is the single most important economic issue
Speaker 8: of the day.
Speaker 2: This is past fail that if we do not.
Speaker 8: They fix these tax cuts, if we do not renew
Speaker 8: and extend, then we will be facing an economic calamity,
Speaker 8: and as always with financial instability that falls on the
Speaker 8: middle and working class people.
Speaker 2: We get into it now with Bloomberg Intelligence's senior US
Speaker 2: policy analyst, is pol Swene going to be upset with
Speaker 2: me for doing all this bi they're the best in
Speaker 2: the business. Nathan's Phone's been ringing. We talk about it
Speaker 2: every week here. Good to see Nathan Dean about confirmations
Speaker 2: now or is it just foregone that Trump's getting his team?
Speaker 9: Well, I think that he's going to get most of
Speaker 9: his team and then look from the GOP perspective, you
Speaker 9: can only reject a couple of those. And I think,
Speaker 9: based off of the Democratic questions we saw this week,
Speaker 9: a lot of that is being saved for Tulca Gabbert
Speaker 9: and you know Patel over at the FBI, So I
Speaker 9: think a lot of the questions. Look, Senator Marco Rubio,
Speaker 9: he's gonna have the easiest path to confirmation, Scott besstt.
Speaker 9: He's getting a lot of Democratic votes. Even the Pete
Speaker 9: Hegseth hearing with Secretary of Defense. You know, the Democrats
Speaker 9: were sort of curtailed in their criticism of him, which.
Speaker 2: Makes me think that a lot of these nominees are
Speaker 2: going to get through. So how do you do yesterday
Speaker 2: in making the argument that what you think about tariffs
Speaker 2: might not be true, that we have our own approach,
Speaker 2: that the composite of all of our policies will in
Speaker 2: fact spur growth, not inflation or balloon deficits. Is the
Speaker 2: market buying this because you look at the bond market
Speaker 2: and I'm wondering, So.
Speaker 9: You know, I don't think the market. So let's just
Speaker 9: back up the market. I think views Scott Bessont as
Speaker 9: the moderated voice when it comes to these tariff arguments,
Speaker 9: especially when you compare him to Howard Lucknick, the Commerce
Speaker 9: Secretary nomine and so forth like that. You know, however,
Speaker 9: Scott Besson has said and in those in that confirmation hearing,
Speaker 9: he said, these tariffs are coming. It's just a matter
Speaker 9: of how hard and how high and how quickly or
Speaker 9: is it going to be a way to conduct negotiations.
Speaker 9: And I think that's the Wall Street view here. The
Speaker 9: Wall Street view is is that come Monday, when these
Speaker 9: executive orders are signed, there's still going to be wiggle room.
Speaker 9: Now he may be in the minority here, but I
Speaker 9: would also argue that, you know, when it comes to tariffs,
Speaker 9: there are a lot of other groups involved, Commerce, USTR
Speaker 9: and so forth like that. And I think Scott Besson's message,
Speaker 9: why you know, he answered a lot about the tariffs. Initially,
Speaker 9: he focused a lot more on the hearing on tax
Speaker 9: reform because I think that for him, the tax extensions
Speaker 9: of twenty seventeen are the most important thing for him
Speaker 9: in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2: Well, and he's framing it is, we don't do this,
Speaker 2: as we just heard the biggest tax cut on a
Speaker 2: tax hike, rather on the middle class. But when you
Speaker 2: start talking about phasing in tariffs so some of the
Speaker 2: other ideas that have come about, it's creating a new
Speaker 2: level of uncertainty. Would Wall Street rather know what's going
Speaker 2: to happen and if it's across the board ten percent
Speaker 2: tariffs versus being uncertain about potentially lower tariffs, that would
Speaker 2: be friendlier to an investor.
Speaker 9: So obviously, when you get certainty, you at least get
Speaker 9: the ability to do which you know you can react
Speaker 9: to it. So, but there are a couple ways that
Speaker 9: President Trump will put these tariffs into place, and most
Speaker 9: of them involve ordering the Department of Commerce to conduct
Speaker 9: the study and then come back in two to three
Speaker 9: months and those negotiations take place. I think Wall Street
Speaker 9: would actually prefer that route. However, President Trump does have
Speaker 9: the ability to declare an economic disaster and these tariffs,
Speaker 9: I mean, we looked into it. All you have to
Speaker 9: do is go over to customs and change a number.
Speaker 2: And hit enter. How about that and these.
Speaker 9: Numbers go up and these tariffs take place. That would
Speaker 9: be much more of a shock, and I think Wall
Speaker 9: Street really wouldn't want that. However, you know, he did
Speaker 9: this back in twenty nineteen as well with Mexico. Representatives
Speaker 9: of Mexico City came to Washington, there was a negotiation,
Speaker 9: and those tariff's threats never actually came into fruition. So
Speaker 9: we continue to believe that, yes, we are going to
Speaker 9: see an executive order on Monday about tariffs. But we
Speaker 9: continue to believe that this executive order maybe put out
Speaker 9: a small tariff, but will lead to further negotiations before
Speaker 9: the high tariff takes into place.
Speaker 2: Do we get crypto eos on Monday? And where are
Speaker 2: we on this national reserve? I still don't understand how
Speaker 2: it works. Maybe you can tell me if this is
Speaker 2: going to happen.
Speaker 9: Yeah, So I think we are going to get to
Speaker 9: a cryptocurrency executive order. It will be one of those
Speaker 9: more symbolic ones saying this is the cryptocurrency is going
Speaker 9: to be like a national priority or something like that.
Speaker 2: Guy.
Speaker 9: But what you're talking about is this idea of a cryptocurrency,
Speaker 9: you know, sovereign wealth fund.
Speaker 2: If you Fort Knox of bitcoin exactly, how do you
Speaker 2: do that?
Speaker 10: You know?
Speaker 9: Senator Lummis from Wyoming is heavily involved. The idea here
Speaker 9: is that you would potentially buy five percent of the
Speaker 9: world's bitcoin. Now, I think what will happen is the
Speaker 9: United States has approximately around two hundred and twelve thousand
Speaker 9: bitcoin through enforcement actions, right some of its sprinkled over
Speaker 9: a commerce some of it are treasury and President Trump
Speaker 9: could put an executive order out saying, look, let's put
Speaker 9: that together and call that the Sovereign Wealth Fund. But
Speaker 9: President Trump is also in create our voice support for
Speaker 9: US based cryptocurrencies, which is not bitcoin.
Speaker 2: So if I'm a holder of bitcoin.
Speaker 9: And I want this to go up to one hundred
Speaker 9: and seventy five thousand dollars, and President Trump is looking
Speaker 9: at US based cryptocurrencies, you know.
Speaker 2: There's a conversation. We're totally out of time. There's a
Speaker 2: conversation in the maga social media world that believes the
Speaker 2: government will sell all of that seized crypto just to
Speaker 2: drive the price down and embarrassed Donald Trump. Could that happen?
Speaker 9: Well, Senator Alumnus actually spoke against some of the selling
Speaker 9: that occurred yesterday, So.
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see what happened yesterday, is that what they're doing.
Speaker 9: Some of the USh marshalls sold a little bit of bitcoins, so.
Speaker 2: It's happening a little bit a little bit. We have
Speaker 2: to talk more about that. Check the price of bitcoin
Speaker 2: while we're at it, because this is Bloomberg. It's looking
Speaker 2: pretty good back above one hundred and four thousand dollars,
Speaker 2: up five percent. That's Nathan Dean at Bloomberg Intelligence Our
Speaker 2: Panels next on Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: It's the fastest show in politics with a lot to
Speaker 2: cover today. Things have been moving pretty fast to day
Speaker 2: the friday before Donald Trumps swearing in the final friday
Speaker 2: of Joe Biden's administration and Kaylee, Boy, We've got a
Speaker 2: lot happen in this weekend. The city is just in lockdown.
Speaker 2: It's Fortress Washington. You kind of can't even drive into
Speaker 2: town now as it is, and it's going to keep
Speaker 2: increasing with the security, the Jersey barriers, the fencing and
Speaker 2: the whole bit. Over the weekend. Donald Trump's going to
Speaker 2: have a victory rally Sunday night at Capital One Arena,
Speaker 2: The interesting thing is he's going back the next day.
Speaker 11: Yeah, at least according to his post on true Social
Speaker 11: people who would have been on the National Mall, I
Speaker 11: guess to attend the inauguration in person, or at least
Speaker 11: view it from the mall can now view it inside
Speaker 11: the Capitol One arena. And then Donald Trump, after he's
Speaker 11: sworn in, intends to parade to Capital One and join
Speaker 11: supporters there for I guess what will be a two nights.
Speaker 2: That's right, exactly. This is our way of telling you.
Speaker 2: The inauguration has been moved indoors. It's going to be
Speaker 2: nine degrees in town on Monday. And just like we
Speaker 2: saw Ronald Reagan do well a little bit differently because
Speaker 2: they went to the White House for that, they're going
Speaker 2: to move the ceremony into the Capital Rotunda. Yep, and
Speaker 2: good luck getting a seat. How do they fit that
Speaker 2: many egos in one room?
Speaker 11: Well, that's an excellent question. We have a lot of
Speaker 11: questions actually about how logistically this is going to work.
Speaker 11: But this would be only the third time in history
Speaker 11: the inauguration doesn't happen outdoors. So on that note, let's
Speaker 11: assemble our political panel with their vast knowledge of American
Speaker 11: Political History Genie Shanzay, And that was with US Senior
Speaker 11: Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the
Speaker 11: Presidency in Congress, alongside Rick Davis stone Court Capital partner,
Speaker 11: both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. So Rick, it was
Speaker 11: raised and by some reporters over at Politico, this notion
Speaker 11: that this is Donald Trump's second inauguration and whether or
Speaker 11: not this would actually be moved indoors if it was
Speaker 11: his first, because you miss out on a lot of
Speaker 11: the pomp and circumstance.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 6: I mean I think it's a lot of second guessing.
Speaker 6: They'll be pomp and circumstance. I mean, they'll be a
Speaker 6: nice ceremony that'll get broadcasts live on television and social media.
Speaker 6: Him surrounded by his you know, incoming cabinet and Congress.
Speaker 6: So there'll be a nice element of what we love
Speaker 6: about America, which is our institutions and our formalities of them.
Speaker 6: But this is really Donald Trump. I mean, you know,
Speaker 6: he's not the kind of guy who wants to, you know,
Speaker 6: sort of freeze as he's giving a speech which could
Speaker 6: last quite some time, right, I mean, it wouldn't be
Speaker 6: surprised that his inaugural address will go over an hour,
Speaker 6: and the replacement is classic Donald Trump. One more big rally,
Speaker 6: right back to back with another one the day before.
Speaker 6: And I wouldn't be surprised by the way that this
Speaker 6: isn't a trend in his present see where you know,
Speaker 6: once a month, once a quarter, there's a big rally somewhere.
Speaker 6: He's not running for anything, but he loves his rallies.
Speaker 2: We should let everyone know that Rick Davis was on
Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan's inaugural committee the last time this had to happen,
Speaker 2: so Rick knows what he's talking about. Genie was ten
Speaker 2: degrees when Barack Obama was sworn into office and I
Speaker 2: was out there shivering in the shade with a lot
Speaker 2: of people underneath the dome. It was many hours of freezing.
Speaker 2: George W. Bush had freezing rain at his first inauguration.
Speaker 2: What do you make of this call?
Speaker 12: Well, I think it shows that Republicans don't like to
Speaker 12: be cold, and Democrats, tough as we are, we're willing to.
Speaker 5: Do it, be out there and cold.
Speaker 2: You know, But can I just say.
Speaker 12: No, I don't. Don't you guys think it's sort of fitting.
Speaker 12: We all of us started out this election cycle in
Speaker 12: Iowa and it was like pretty good, yes or something,
Speaker 12: and now coming to a painful end on Monday nine degrees.
Speaker 12: So in some ways it's sort of the encapsulation of
Speaker 12: what this entire election season has been like.
Speaker 11: Old at least in Iowa. We all got to be
Speaker 11: inside the studio, sure really going outside that which was
Speaker 11: also really which was freezing. Yeah, it was all relative,
Speaker 11: absolutely different. Then I wasn't warm for like five days
Speaker 11: straight at any point. I don't think we just had
Speaker 11: a red line cross a red headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal.
Speaker 11: I do want to mention as we look ahead to
Speaker 11: the inauguration, knowing that it won't just be Donald Trump
Speaker 11: who is getting sworn in as president, but current Ohio
Speaker 11: Senator JD. Vance will be sworn in as vice president,
Speaker 11: leaving open a vacancy for a Senate seat in Ohio.
Speaker 11: And we just got news from Ohio's governor, Governor DeWine,
Speaker 11: announcing he will fill Vince's Ohio Senate seat with John Houstead,
Speaker 11: who is currently the Lieutenant governor of Ohio. So this
Speaker 11: is confirmation of that after their been some rumblings in
Speaker 11: recent days Joe about this seat potentially going to the
Speaker 11: Vake Rama Swamp.
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's something. There's also been talk of him
Speaker 2: wanting to run for governor.
Speaker 11: The Washington Post is reporting maybe.
Speaker 2: Something that he is really going to consider. This follows
Speaker 2: Ronda Santis's pick of Ashley Moody to fill Florida's VACANCYTS.
Speaker 2: We're getting a better sense of the makeup here.
Speaker 11: Yeah, I guess the question is knowing these were going
Speaker 11: to be Republican seats, regardless how much the individuals selected
Speaker 11: really matter when they're heading into a Senate that has
Speaker 11: a fairly comfortable Republican majority.
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, who spent enough time in the Senate to
Speaker 2: have a feeling on this, what do you make of
Speaker 2: these two decisions?
Speaker 6: Yeah, these both really follow historical norms. It's not unusual
Speaker 6: for when you have a vacancy, especially in the Senate,
Speaker 6: for sort of the senior ranking party official who's replacing
Speaker 6: someone to be put into that seat, you know, whether
Speaker 6: it's an attorney general, lieutenant governor.
Speaker 2: So that is actually the mainstream.
Speaker 6: You know, we heard rumors that Laura Trump maybe become
Speaker 6: senator from Florida. That would have really broken the norms,
Speaker 6: and of course, uh, the Vake Ramaswami, who's never held
Speaker 6: public office, would be another great example of breaking.
Speaker 2: That norm in Ohio.
Speaker 6: So what we're really seeing at the start of the
Speaker 6: Trump administration is a lot of normal, which I don't
Speaker 6: think anybody would have actually been on.
Speaker 1: Uh.
Speaker 6: And so I do think that it's a it's an
Speaker 6: interesting indication of what's going on in really two key
Speaker 6: Republican states like Florida and Ohio, that it's sort of
Speaker 6: business as usual. And by the way, these two governors
Speaker 6: not big Trump supporters. Mike Dwaine not a Trump guy
Speaker 6: at all. The Santas ran against him. You know, they
Speaker 6: sort of they picked the people they thought would best
Speaker 6: represent the state in the United States Senate, in those
Speaker 6: in those each respective states.
Speaker 11: Well, and I guess that person for governor to wine
Speaker 11: this time did not seem to be the Vake Ramaswami.
Speaker 11: But as I mentioned, Genie, the Washington Post is reporting
Speaker 11: that Ramaswami is gear up for a governor's bid in
Speaker 11: twenty twenty six. An Ohio operative they cite saying that
Speaker 11: Vig's base plan is the same to get accomplishments at DOGE.
Speaker 11: The Department of Governor efficiency he's co leading with Elon
Speaker 11: Musk and then announce a run for governor shortly. What
Speaker 11: do you make of that?
Speaker 12: Yeah, you know, I did never thought that he would
Speaker 12: want to fill this seat at this time. You know,
Speaker 12: I think he wants to get his bona fides working,
Speaker 12: as you mentioned in Doge, and then make a run
Speaker 12: for the top seat in his home.
Speaker 5: State or in his state.
Speaker 12: So, you know, I think it's a plan that actually
Speaker 12: does make sense. Now, obviously a lot can happen in
Speaker 12: a short period of time, so certainly not a guaranteed thing,
Speaker 12: But I think he does have a viable path forward,
Speaker 12: and he certainly has the support and funding to get
Speaker 12: there if he really wants to. So I do think
Speaker 12: it's a plan that makes more sense than put sticking.
Speaker 3: In in this.
Speaker 2: We've got a breaking story on the terminal, Kiley, that
Speaker 2: we should mention because it of course plays into the
Speaker 2: transition that we're talking about here. The Federal Reserve announcing
Speaker 2: today is withdrawing from the network of central banks and
Speaker 2: supervisors for greening the financial system. This is a coalition
Speaker 2: of banks. This goes back to twenty seventeen in studying
Speaker 2: climate risk is the transition the transformation complete?
Speaker 6: Rick, Yeah, we can see the anticipation of the Trump
Speaker 6: administration highly critical on the outside of Mission creep at
Speaker 6: the FED, especially as it relates.
Speaker 2: To climate rules.
Speaker 6: And I think this is just a declaration of the
Speaker 6: obvious to come right, and so rather than make it
Speaker 6: an issue for the Trump folks, you know, they're just
Speaker 6: sort of cleaning the deck for the new administration.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 6: Look, the good news about Donald Trump is we've already
Speaker 6: seen one term of him and we've had him around
Speaker 6: for eight years pontificating on every issue that we could
Speaker 6: ever imagine, and so it's not a hard guess where
Speaker 6: he's going to wind up now. He's a flip flopper,
Speaker 6: loves to change his mind. TikTok's a good example. We're
Speaker 6: not sure where all that's going to come down. So
Speaker 6: it always adds an element of surprise. But we know
Speaker 6: what we're getting into, and so do these regulators, and
Speaker 6: it's not a surprise to me that they would immediately
Speaker 6: start to process a new approach.
Speaker 11: Well, and it's not just the regulators. We should point
Speaker 11: out that the banks are pulling out of net zero
Speaker 11: alliances as well. The net zero Banking Alliance specifically, just
Speaker 11: within the last month, has lost Goldman, Sacks, Wells, Fargo
Speaker 11: City Group, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan Chase,
Speaker 11: basically all the big ones. Black Rock pulled out of
Speaker 11: an equivalent net zero asset Managers Alliance. This is I
Speaker 11: guess you could say Genie big business adjusting to the
Speaker 11: landscape under Donald Trump, and the same could be said
Speaker 11: for other companies as well. Look at what Meta is doing,
Speaker 11: changing personnel and pulling back on fact checking.
Speaker 5: That's absolutely right.
Speaker 12: I mean, you know, it doesn't take a lot to
Speaker 12: read the tea leaves of what happened in November. They
Speaker 12: see a total shift in Washington, d C. In terms
Speaker 12: of the power base. But they also, and I think importantly,
Speaker 12: also see a shift with the American public. And so
Speaker 12: we do see from as you mentioned, from tech to
Speaker 12: the financial circles and elsewhere, an adjustment to that. You know,
Speaker 12: it is particularly worth noting though, you know, these changes
Speaker 12: as it pertains to issues involving climate and green are
Speaker 12: happening at the same time that California is suffering.
Speaker 5: From these tremendous wildfires.
Speaker 12: So you know, climate change remains an existential crisis, and
Speaker 12: we do depend on our leadership to move us forward
Speaker 12: on that, and that is a concern to a lot
Speaker 12: of people.
Speaker 2: Well, things are winding down. Here are a remaining moment,
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, Your thoughts on Joe Biden final words. He's
Speaker 2: going to be delivering his final speech, likely publicly at
Speaker 2: least of his presidency, a real formal speech here this hour.
Speaker 2: How will Americans remember him as we swear in Donald
Speaker 2: Trump on Monday. Yeah, Look, I think everybody's going to
Speaker 2: at least initially see Joe Biden in a prism of age. Right,
Speaker 2: he was the first real president to be forced out
Speaker 2: because of his age. And I must say, I mean
Speaker 2: he's turning it over to what will be the oldest
Speaker 2: person ever sworn in to the presidency in history.
Speaker 6: And he beats Joe Biden by five months, Donald Trump.
Speaker 6: And so we are in an era where age has
Speaker 6: become a thing with elected officials, whether it's in the Senate,
Speaker 6: the House, or the presidency. And so I think that
Speaker 6: will still be an issue that he'll have to deal with.
Speaker 2: They'll be back with us on the late edition of
Speaker 2: Balance of Power that's at five Washington time, Rick Davis,
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors stay with us. A lot
Speaker 2: more to follow here on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch
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Speaker 11: Today's Supreme Court decision upholding the law that would see
Speaker 11: TikTok band if not divested by Sunday. And interestingly, come Monday,
Speaker 11: TikTok CEO show Chew. We'll be here in Washington. He's
Speaker 11: planning to attend Donald Trump's inauguration, which has raised some eyebrows.
Speaker 11: And you know what raised eyebrows as well, Joe, was
Speaker 11: the invitation Donald Trump extended to another Chinese individual, the
Speaker 11: Chinese president. In fact, Ji Jinping was invited to the
Speaker 11: inauguration that we learned today he is not coming. He
Speaker 11: is those said in his stead China's Vice President.
Speaker 2: Han Jan optics are everything. He's still though, got on
Speaker 2: the horn with President she. You know, they were not
Speaker 2: waiting until the swearing in. Donald Trump's been in touch
Speaker 2: with any number of world leaders, some of whom have
Speaker 2: gone to mar A Lago. And as we hear now
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, the phone was ringing and the
Speaker 2: calls coming from Beijing. Tyler, what do we know?
Speaker 10: Yeah, Joe So President elect Trump confirming this call in
Speaker 10: a post on truth Social saying that it was quote
Speaker 10: very good, but also saying that they spoke about a
Speaker 10: range of issues, including balancing trade Fetanahl, which we know
Speaker 10: was a campaign issue for him on the campaign trail,
Speaker 10: but also about TikTok. Now their call came before the
Speaker 10: Supreme Court brought down their decision today, but also on
Speaker 10: the heels of as Cane mentioned, just learning that the
Speaker 10: TikTok CEO show cho will be at the inauguration on Monday.
Speaker 10: And I was on Capitol Hill yesterday I had a
Speaker 10: chance to catch up with the Senator Mark Warner. He's
Speaker 10: a Democrat, of course, the ranking member on Senate Intel,
Speaker 10: but he was the chair of the committee when the
Speaker 10: TikTok bill originally passed, and of course has been on
Speaker 10: Balance of Power numerous times about that, and I asked
Speaker 10: him about the TikTok CEO coming to the inauguration, and
Speaker 10: he said that he was confused by this. I want
Speaker 10: you to take a lesson to what he told reporters here.
Speaker 13: I don't get it. Eighty percent of the Congress Democrats
Speaker 13: Republicans agreed the TikTok is a huge national security concern.
Speaker 13: I can't think of a potentially more powerful propaganda's guru.
Speaker 13: And the irony in all of this was Donald Trump
Speaker 13: was the first guy to point out this problem of
Speaker 13: his administration had to convince me. They did a great
Speaker 13: job of convincing me and the overwhelming members of Congress.
Speaker 10: He goes on to say that he would actually support
Speaker 10: delaying the band if that's what it would take to
Speaker 10: get a deal over the finish line, but he said
Speaker 10: that he doesn't understand how this squares with the incoming
Speaker 10: Trump administration's rhetoric when it comes to getting tough on China.
Speaker 10: Of course, Joe and Keiley. President elect Trump wanted to
Speaker 10: take that side of this. He's been saying all along
Speaker 10: that he is the only one that could potentially bring
Speaker 10: a negotiation to the table.
Speaker 11: Well, but it's not only up to Donald Trump ultimately
Speaker 11: to make a deal happen, China is going to have
Speaker 11: to sign off on any divestment, giving the algorithm and play.
Speaker 10: Here right, right, And that's also why it's so interesting
Speaker 10: to watch all of these influences and factors coming into
Speaker 10: inauguration day. Since we know that Elon Musk will be
Speaker 10: there at the inauguration Bloomberg News reporting that Chinese officials
Speaker 10: were looking at him as potentially being part of some
Speaker 10: sort of acquisition. But then I'm also watching these other
Speaker 10: big tech CEOs. Mark Zuckerberg's going to be there, and
Speaker 10: we've been talking all along about how a potential ban
Speaker 10: on TikTok right could impact Meta for instance, as creators
Speaker 10: and those seeking out content might look for other platforms
Speaker 10: if this band goes into effect.
Speaker 11: All right, Bloomberg, Tyler Kensel, great reporting, Thank you so much,
Speaker 11: and Joe, and we consider this prospect of a deal
Speaker 11: happening if it's to be someone like Elon Musk who
Speaker 11: also owns X or another tech company. Just earlier this week,
Speaker 11: we had the outgoing chair of the FTC, Lina Khan,
Speaker 11: in studio here with us and asked her who realistically
Speaker 11: would be able to get around and trust concerns by
Speaker 11: absorbing an app or a platform with one hundred and
Speaker 11: seventy million users in the US without raising a flag.
Speaker 11: And while she kind of danced around that a little bit,
Speaker 11: she did say, you know, traditionally when you look at
Speaker 11: tech companies and like absorbing a company of that size,
Speaker 11: that it might draw some scrutiny.
Speaker 2: I would think. Although we heard from Chuck Schumer on this, yeah,
Speaker 2: just yesterday, his statement appealing to the hundreds of thousands
Speaker 2: of influencers he actually mentioned on the floor who make
Speaker 2: a living here. Democrats have apparently come on over with
Speaker 2: maybe the exception of Senator Warre. Yeah.
Speaker 11: It's interesting how the winds change the closer we get
Speaker 11: to Donald Trump's inauguration, knowing Donald Trump has different feelings
Speaker 11: about TikTok than he once did, and the winds have
Speaker 11: changed and lead up to the inauguration in other areas
Speaker 11: as well, knowing that Donald Trump issued threats, for example,
Speaker 11: if Israeli hostages weren't returned by Monday when he takes
Speaker 11: the oath of office, that there would be consequences and
Speaker 11: lo and behold, this week, we did, finally, after month effort,
Speaker 11: see a breakthrough on a ceasfire deal between Israel and Hamas. Today,
Speaker 11: after what had been a little bit of a hold
Speaker 11: up in the Israeli Kanesse, they have now actually voted
Speaker 11: to advance that deal and hostages could begin returning home
Speaker 11: on Sunday.
Speaker 2: Yeah, this broke right on this program a couple of
Speaker 2: days ago, as soon as Joe Biden was in front
Speaker 2: of the podium talking about it, Benjaminettnye, who said they
Speaker 2: were still reviewing details. It sounded like maybe things were
Speaker 2: going to be slow walked, maybe even to coincide with
Speaker 2: the inaugural on Monday, as Kaylee mentioned, Donald Trump promising
Speaker 2: all hell to break loose in the Middle East if
Speaker 2: the hostages were not released, or at least a deal
Speaker 2: to have their release. But the Kanesse has signed off
Speaker 2: on this, Kayleie, and this is going to happen.
Speaker 11: So we want to get more on the fact that
Speaker 11: this is happening, and turn now to one of our
Speaker 11: trusted voices here on Balance of Power. Carmeil Arbitt is
Speaker 11: back with us. She is Atlantic Council Senior Fellow for
Speaker 11: the Middle East Programs at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.
Speaker 11: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Carmeal I guess
Speaker 11: when we consider that the timing here, the slight delay
Speaker 11: on the behalf of the Israeli government, was that mostly
Speaker 11: just because of domestic political pressure. Was there really a
Speaker 11: chance this wasn't actually going to be agreed to?
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 3: I think it's important to remember as these agreements are unfolding,
Speaker 3: and of course we've been watching for fifteen months as.
Speaker 5: We've approached ceasefire agreements.
Speaker 3: You know, one went into play, others have fallen apart,
Speaker 3: just how fragile these deals are, but very much is
Speaker 3: rarely politics came into play as Natagna, who was looking
Speaker 3: at what he would have to do to hold his
Speaker 3: coalition together if he did move forward with the ceasefire agreement,
Speaker 3: and he ultimately made a decision that if he had
Speaker 3: to choose between pressure from incoming President Donald Trump or
Speaker 3: pressure from his far right flank, he was going to
Speaker 3: yield to that pressure from President Trump and really set
Speaker 3: a tone for what their relationship is going to look
Speaker 3: like once Trump returns to office.
Speaker 2: When we consider phase one here Carmeil and this six
Speaker 2: week period of time, the six week truce, the deal
Speaker 2: calls for extension essentially of the temporary cease fire if
Speaker 2: a full and permanent truce is not agreed on at
Speaker 2: that point. How long could that keep rolling? Do you
Speaker 2: suspect this will be figured out in that six week
Speaker 2: time to have a permanent solution.
Speaker 3: Yeah, for the US right now was very committed to
Speaker 3: bringing an end to this conflict, for this ceasefire to
Speaker 3: be exactly as you say, permanent.
Speaker 5: So of course it's being structured in three phases.
Speaker 3: Each phase will whether or not the ceasefire is able
Speaker 3: to be made permanent will depend on both Hamas and
Speaker 3: Israel meeting their obligations under each phase. In Israel and
Speaker 3: frankly also for Hamas, the politics of this.
Speaker 5: Are very difficult.
Speaker 3: Part of the reason it was so difficult for Natyahu
Speaker 3: to say yes is that, of course he had promised
Speaker 3: to completely eliminate Hamas, not just eliminate Hamas from power,
Speaker 3: not just deplete Hamas's military, but eliminate them altogether. In
Speaker 3: that hasn't happened, and so one of the key concerns
Speaker 3: for Israeli is especially on the right, is that Hamas
Speaker 3: could return to power, and for others it's this concern
Speaker 3: that there is no clear path forward for governance in
Speaker 3: the Gaza Strip and so it's very hard to see
Speaker 3: how this becomes permanent.
Speaker 5: Or when it does, what that actually looks like.
Speaker 11: Well, and Carmil, I'm glad you raised this notion that
Speaker 11: Israel had said from the get go its objective here
Speaker 11: was the elimination of Hamas, because just earlier this week,
Speaker 11: when he was speaking at the Atlantic Council, a Secretary
Speaker 11: of State, outgoing Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln had this
Speaker 11: to say about what he described as potentially perpetual war.
Speaker 14: Let's listen, each time Israel completes its military operations and
Speaker 14: pulls back Hamas, militants regroup and re emerge because there's
Speaker 14: nothing else to fill the void.
Speaker 2: Indeed, we assess.
Speaker 14: That Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as
Speaker 14: it is lost. That is a recipe for an enduring
Speaker 14: insurgency and perpetual war.
Speaker 11: So, Carmil, what realists could fill the void to prevent
Speaker 11: an enduring insurgency?
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is really the question of the hour.
Speaker 3: As we move into again, as we said, a ceasefire
Speaker 3: and then what will hopefully be an end to this conflict.
Speaker 3: The Palestinian authority continues to reassert that it is ready
Speaker 3: able and willing to take this on. The Israeli government
Speaker 3: is opposed to that, but hasn't put forward an alternative.
Speaker 3: The far right in Israel would like to see Israel
Speaker 3: maintain a presence in the Gaza Strip, both militarily and
Speaker 3: through settlements, but Natagnell, who has also said that he's
Speaker 3: not willing to do that. And so what you have
Speaker 3: is the potential for power vacuum that could lead to
Speaker 3: chaos and again the reemergence of Hamas or frankly other
Speaker 3: more extremist groups within the Gaza Strip.
Speaker 2: There's been a lot of comparisons Torontald Reagan and the
Speaker 2: release of the Iranian hostages coinciding with the inaugural What
Speaker 2: are these optics going to look like when the first
Speaker 2: hostages are released or so, I.
Speaker 3: Think it's important to just know the high usage agreement
Speaker 3: that was reached, as Biden has said repeatedly, was the
Speaker 3: agreement that the Biden administration put forward in May.
Speaker 5: What has changed is, of course, the politics.
Speaker 3: The dynamics on the ground, Israel's feeling that it has
Speaker 3: at least cleared out or retained some control over land
Speaker 3: that it can kind of address some of these issues.
Speaker 5: So you know, This has really been a triumph I
Speaker 5: would say of bipartisanship.
Speaker 3: We saw the Biden administration lay the groundwork, do the
Speaker 3: work that was necessary to make this possible, and then
Speaker 3: work in close partnership with the Trump administration to bring
Speaker 3: it over the edge. So I think that the Trump administration,
Speaker 3: of course is going to be declaring victory.
Speaker 5: This is a great note for them to be.
Speaker 3: Coming into Washington this coming weekend, but at the same
Speaker 3: time really shows what continuity and cooperation can yield well.
Speaker 11: And when we consider the Trump administration and what they
Speaker 11: will now be dealing with in the Middle East as
Speaker 11: a result of this breakthrough and what caused the breakthrough, Carmeil,
Speaker 11: how much easier of a time potentially will they have
Speaker 11: navigating the relationship with Iran, which through its proxies, has
Speaker 11: been itself weakened.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's certainly part of the conditions that
Speaker 3: have made this agreement possible in this moment is the
Speaker 3: weakening of both Iran and its proxies.
Speaker 5: So the Trump administration will benefit from that.
Speaker 3: Their ambitions, of course, are still set on a larger
Speaker 3: regional agreement that includes the Saudis, and they're going to
Speaker 3: work to pursue that and are well positioned to do so.
Speaker 3: I would note that doesn't mean this will not be
Speaker 3: without its challenges, of course. You know, as we talked
Speaker 3: about making sure that each stage is actually reached. There
Speaker 3: are Israel released today the first list of palest named
Speaker 3: prisoners that it's going to allow to be released as
Speaker 3: part of the exchange with hostages.
Speaker 5: Whether or not Hamas actually produces all of.
Speaker 3: The hostages, how many are alive, and so forth, the
Speaker 3: details here are going to still be tricky for this administration,
Speaker 3: and I would expect there will still be friction points
Speaker 3: between Trump and Natagne who and Trump in regional partners,
Speaker 3: so it will not be smooth sailing from here.
Speaker 2: We actually have a sense that, more specifically Carimel, what
Speaker 2: this exchange is going to look like. Are we going
Speaker 2: to see a meeting at a crossing with Gaza? Are
Speaker 2: they going to be on an airport tarmac? How's this
Speaker 2: going to roll?
Speaker 5: Yeah?
Speaker 3: So Israel spent today setting up essentially centers in three
Speaker 3: different border points to receive the hostages. So I would
Speaker 3: expect optics very similar from the Israeli side of the
Speaker 3: ceasefire agreement that was first reached where you see, you know,
Speaker 3: kind of trucks going in picking up the hostages, reunions
Speaker 3: with families and so forth. In the past they haven't
Speaker 3: allowed the release of pals and and prisoners to be filmed,
Speaker 3: and they will of course be distributed to different places.
Speaker 3: Some will go back to Gaza, others to the West Bank,
Speaker 3: and then there is talk of those who may be deported.
Speaker 3: So I don't expect the TV optics to be quite
Speaker 3: as kind of.
Speaker 5: Grand around that, but you will see receptions.
Speaker 3: Back into communities, families being reunited on both sides.
Speaker 5: I would expect it's going to be very.
Speaker 2: Very emotional, really interesting. That's the real stuff from Carmel
Speaker 2: Arbit Carmel, thank you so much. As always, Atlantic Council
Speaker 2: Senior Fellow for Middle East Programs Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.
Speaker 2: We always learned something when we talk to Carmel. We've
Speaker 2: got some big days coming up here in political history.
Speaker 2: It's not just the inaugural, it's the release of hostages overseas, yeah.
Speaker 11: Which could happen just before the inaugural on Sunday. Sunday
Speaker 11: also being the TikTok deadline, which we've had development on
Speaker 11: today after the Supreme Court decision. It's a lot to
Speaker 11: cover here in Washington, and it's only just beginning as
Speaker 11: the new administration comes in, so we'll have to come
Speaker 11: back with more five.
Speaker 2: I think we'll have a lot to talk about. Rick
Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Shanzana will be with us. I hope
Speaker 2: you will be too, five pm Eastern right here on Bloomberg.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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