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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and Android

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Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Grab a shovel and welcome to the Friday edition of

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Speaker 2: Balance of Power. You made it to the threshold of

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Speaker 2: the weekend here on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite, and

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Speaker 2: on YouTube too. You can find us on YouTube anyday

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Speaker 2: search Bloomberg Business News Live. We keep the stream running

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Speaker 2: all day from DC and New York, and you're always

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Speaker 2: welcome in our studios. As we get ready to shiver

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Speaker 2: this weekend here in Washington, Welcome to Fortress, DC. I

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Speaker 2: don't even know how to get to work anymore, with

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Speaker 2: so many streets closed, thirty miles of security fencing. We're

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Speaker 2: told hundreds of thousands on the way into town. There

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Speaker 2: is not a hotel room to be had. I know

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Speaker 2: this firsthand after looking at the forecast. We have a

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Speaker 2: major update on the plan from Monday. The headline on

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Speaker 2: the Washington Post, home of the Capitol Weather Gang accumulating

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Speaker 2: snow could fall Sunday before brutal cold on Inauguration Day.

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Speaker 2: And yeah, boy, that's gonna be it nine degrees, says

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Speaker 2: the Google. The nine degree low high of twenty four.

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Speaker 2: And when you're on the west front of the Capitol

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Speaker 2: at that time of day, this time of year, you're

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Speaker 2: in shadow for the whole time. And so Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: now has a new reason to compare himself to Ronald Reagan.

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Speaker 2: The headline screaming inauguration moves indoors for the first time

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Speaker 2: in forty years, making us all feel a little bit older.

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Speaker 2: Yeah that was nineteen eighty five. Remember Ronald Reagan, it

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Speaker 2: was seven degrees outside. It's gonna be nine on Monday,

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Speaker 2: Barack Obama. Remember two thousand and eight, it was ten balmy.

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Speaker 2: So Donald Trump takes to truth. Social January twentieth cannot

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Speaker 2: come fast enough, he says. Everybody, even those that initially

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Speaker 2: opposed a victory, he says, by Donald Trump, just want

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Speaker 2: it to happen. Out of his obligation to protect the

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Speaker 2: people of our country, He says, we have to think

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Speaker 2: of the inauguration itself, pointing to the forecast the windchill factor,

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Speaker 2: which would be sub zero doesn't want to see people

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Speaker 2: hurt or injured in any way, and so yes, he says,

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Speaker 2: I have ordered the inauguration address, in addition to prayers

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Speaker 2: and other speeches, to be delivered in the United States

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Speaker 2: Capital Rotunda, as was used by Ronald Reagan in nineteen

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Speaker 2: eighty five, also because of very cold weather. So not

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Speaker 2: only is every field producer at every television network in

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Speaker 2: Washington freaking out right now because it's going to be

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Speaker 2: a whole different show, so too are those in the

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Speaker 2: Capitol think of the logistics that are going to have

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Speaker 2: to be changed. Lisa Camuso Miller joins us now, of course,

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Speaker 2: a veteran of the Republican Ledhouse of Representatives, a veteran

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Speaker 2: of the Speaker's office, former RNC communications director. It's great

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Speaker 2: to see you, Lisa. Are you cold already? And can

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Speaker 2: you believe this is moving inside? What does this mean

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Speaker 2: for the plan?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, look, these are these are the

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Speaker 4: kinds of contingencies that Secret Service and law enforcement and

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Speaker 4: the Capital consider every single time we inaugurate a president.

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Speaker 4: So the fact that they've advised this, that they think

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Speaker 4: that this is the right council is good. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it makes it different, and I can feel the scramble

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Speaker 4: sort of amongst all of the TV and the media folks,

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Speaker 4: for sure. But all of these contingencies are always built

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Speaker 4: in regardless of what the weather's going to be, Joe.

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Speaker 4: I was there in two thousand and one, my gosh,

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Speaker 4: twenty four years ago now, and it was pretty cold

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Speaker 4: then when George W. Bush was inaugurated, and it was raining,

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Speaker 4: and it was really there are so many people out

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Speaker 4: on the lawn. I actually saw a report, Joe that

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Speaker 4: perhaps they're going to open Capital one Arena, and I'm

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Speaker 4: not so sure about what those details are, but there's

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Speaker 4: there's a lot.

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Speaker 2: I got news on that. As a matter of fact,

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Speaker 2: now that you're brough, I hate to interrupt you, Lisa,

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Speaker 2: but I left that part out. Donald Trump writes, we

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Speaker 2: will open Capital one Arena on Monday for live viewing

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Speaker 2: of this historic event and to host the presidential parade.

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Speaker 2: There's more. I will join the crowd at Capital One

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Speaker 2: after my swearing in, So the night earlier, he's got

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Speaker 2: the big night before pep Rally or whatever we're calling it.

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Speaker 2: In that same space, Lisa, how in the world are

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Speaker 2: all these people going to fit in there, complete with

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Speaker 2: Secret Service level security for a newly sworn in president

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Speaker 2: of the United States. I'm guessing you don't want to

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Speaker 2: go anywhere near it.

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Speaker 4: Well, I mean, just like any other big event. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it certainly will be one to get into. And you know,

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Speaker 4: as they allow for these tickets, each one of these

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Speaker 4: tickets have tiers, right, so every one of them, people

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Speaker 4: get chances to sit up close, people get so there'll

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Speaker 4: be lots of opportunity. But you know, as much as

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Speaker 4: this feels like a major shift, it's also one of

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Speaker 4: those things that when you're moving the president of the

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Speaker 4: United States, there are contingencies for everything. And when you

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Speaker 4: watch these things unfold, they have already considered all of

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Speaker 4: these options. So for those of us who are watching

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Speaker 4: at home, luckily we get to stay warm. I could

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Speaker 4: not imagine sitting on the West Front and watching that

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Speaker 4: happen in nine degree weather with snow Perhapsah.

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Speaker 2: So you make a great point, a boy, I was

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Speaker 2: there too in two thousand and one. I remember my

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Speaker 2: poor mother shivering outside and what was freezing rain right

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Speaker 2: there was mud on the ground, freezing rain falling. George W.

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Speaker 2: Bush and Bill Clinton are up there in this miserable

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Speaker 2: weather up on the platform, and you know, they talked

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Speaker 2: about moving it inside potentially that year too, which did

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Speaker 2: not end up happening. So this is like a combination

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Speaker 2: of George W. Bush's swearing in with the get snow

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Speaker 2: and freezing rain and then the temperatures that Ronald Reagan experience.

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Speaker 2: That's a pretty nasty combination. Does Donald Trump actually this

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Speaker 2: idea because he doesn't have to prove crowd size if

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Speaker 2: they move it inside.

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Speaker 5: I don't know.

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Speaker 4: I mean, maybe you know. But the other thing too

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Speaker 4: is that I think that more than anything else in

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Speaker 4: these circumstances, Joe more than any other.

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Speaker 6: I think.

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Speaker 4: The one thing that I saw that the President elect

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Speaker 4: has noted is that law enforcement and those people that

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Speaker 4: are out all day long. It's less about those of

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Speaker 4: us who are sitting in the audience, and even less

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Speaker 4: about those who get brought in right before the event starts.

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Speaker 4: It's those who are really on the front lines who

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Speaker 4: are there making sure. I meant you mentioned those thousands

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Speaker 4: of they're everywhere you go in the city is closed

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Speaker 4: off because of security, and so there is a huge

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Speaker 4: amount of impact beyond just sort of the pomp and

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Speaker 4: circumstance of the day that really affects just about everybody.

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Speaker 5: So this really is.

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Speaker 4: A very probably a very good call for a very

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Speaker 4: cold day, and one that I think those who are

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Speaker 4: around the Capital region are probably somewhat relieved, although they

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Speaker 4: will still definitely be in their posts and working those

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Speaker 4: checkpoints all right.

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Speaker 2: So Lisa Cabusa Miller has her endorsement here on moving

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Speaker 2: this inside. By the way, if you want a little

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Speaker 2: color from the ground here in the Capital City, Lisa,

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Speaker 2: we got to work. Just in the last twenty four

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Speaker 2: hours overnight these Jersey barriers showed up. They must have

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Speaker 2: been dropping them all night. They must have had the

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Speaker 2: trucks out all night. So on each corner of each

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Speaker 2: intersection there's a pile of these concrete barriers. Presumably they

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Speaker 2: will all be put in place along the side of

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Speaker 2: the road at some point over the weekend here, but

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Speaker 2: we're in shutdown mode quite like we've never seen. Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump goes on to write in this very long truth post,

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Speaker 2: wish I could read the whole thing to you here.

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Speaker 2: It's just such classic Trump. It's not just the people, Lisa,

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Speaker 2: the law enforcement, the first responders, he says, it's the

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Speaker 2: police canines and even the horses. The horses would be

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Speaker 2: too cold, Lisa, if you were worried about.

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Speaker 4: Them, Well, those guys will still be out. I'm sure

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Speaker 4: they'll still be out out and about because they have

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Speaker 4: a job to do.

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Speaker 2: What happens to all the people on the mall, I

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Speaker 2: mean they're going to have to put on the jumbo

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Speaker 2: tron right now. Everyone's going to fit in the Capitol

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Speaker 2: One Arena or want to go in there.

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Speaker 4: For sure, And it makes you wonder how many people

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Speaker 4: will come out because it will be cold, but and

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Speaker 4: it's going to be regardless. I think that the crowd sizes,

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Speaker 4: as we joke about the crowd sizes here, they'll be

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Speaker 4: interesting to see because with the cold and with the

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Speaker 4: indoor programming, perhaps that means that people stay home. But

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Speaker 4: also too, as you said, Joe, it's nearly impossible to

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Speaker 4: get around the city right now because of all of

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Speaker 4: the safety per questions that have been put in place,

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Speaker 4: not only because of a variety of different reasons, but

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Speaker 4: also because the city itself still has to function. It

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Speaker 4: is also MLK Day on Monday, so it is a

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Speaker 4: federal holiday, so at least the workforce will not be

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Speaker 4: trying to get into the city. But this is still

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Speaker 4: a functioning city, one that happens and moves regardless of

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Speaker 4: whatever you know, pomp and circum stances happening throughout the day.

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Speaker 4: So it'll be interesting to see how it comes together.

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Speaker 2: I think I'm going to swim across the Potomac. I've

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Speaker 2: decided that will be my way to get into the district.

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Speaker 2: On apologies if you're not in the Washington area, this

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Speaker 2: is no. I haven't actually managed to do that yet.

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Speaker 2: I thought maybe I borrow yours. I don't mean to

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Speaker 2: get too local for people who aren't in DC, but

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Speaker 2: this is what's happening right now in our remaining minute,

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Speaker 2: And now this is I'm setting you up. Tell me

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Speaker 2: what you expect from the speech on Monday, whether it's

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Speaker 2: indoors or out. Do we get American carnage as we

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Speaker 2: did in his original swearing in ors? There's something more optimistic.

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Speaker 4: It feels like the tone and the tenor to me,

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Speaker 4: just based on sort of some of the messaging that

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Speaker 4: I'm seeing is going to be one about offering hope,

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Speaker 4: offering those those that that big red swath across the

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Speaker 4: country that voted in favor of change and voting voted

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Speaker 4: in change, excuse me, in favor of the Trump administration.

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Speaker 4: I think we're going to hear about things that are

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Speaker 4: going to happen right away, those kinds of movements, those

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Speaker 4: kinds of executive orders, those kinds of legislative actions that

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Speaker 4: this Congress and this administration are working already to make

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Speaker 4: sure that they put in place and have happened.

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Speaker 5: And so I would expect that.

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Speaker 4: It would be a lighter tone and ten or more

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Speaker 4: with optimism and hope and hope for change, because I

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Speaker 4: think that that's the legacy he's hoping to leave behind

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Speaker 4: as we get into this next administration.

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Speaker 2: Well, I'm happy to tell you you'll be able to

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Speaker 2: listen to it right here, watch it right here Bloomberg Radio, YouTube,

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg TV as well. Kayley and I will start at

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Speaker 2: eleven am Eastern Time with special coverage. Great to see you, Lisa.

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Speaker 2: As always, I thought that would be just right for today.

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Speaker 2: Lisa Camuso Miller, the former RNC Communications director, host of

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Speaker 2: the Friday Reporter podcast, who knows a thing or two

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Speaker 2: about what happens on Capitol Hill. We've got a lot

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Speaker 2: more to talk about next as Scotus ruling on TikTok.

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Speaker 2: It's straight ahead right here on Balance of Power. This

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Speaker 2: is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

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Speaker 2: The inauguration moves indoors. It's quite a forecast. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: get snow and rain, I guess on Sunday night when

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Speaker 2: they're doing the big victory rally at the Capitol One Arena.

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Speaker 2: The interesting part of this not only are they gonna

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Speaker 2: do the swearing in, they're gonna go inside the rotunda,

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Speaker 2: do the whole bit. Can you imagine the seating arrangement,

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Speaker 2: what they're dealing with just on egos alone. As this

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Speaker 2: moves inside, you know who's gonna be on that platform.

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Speaker 2: It's every major CEO from high tech, including TikTok, which

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Speaker 2: we're gonna talk about in just a second. But then

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Speaker 2: he goes back to the arena on Monday, because you know,

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Speaker 2: if he's not going to stand in front of a

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Speaker 2: million people on the mall. He's gonna what's to get

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Speaker 2: in front of a crowd Capital One Arena Monday, he says,

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Speaker 2: a live viewing of this historic event. Then I will

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Speaker 2: join the crowd after my swearing in. This is going

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Speaker 2: to have to be a kid rock thing there. So

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Speaker 2: the big news before this happened was TikTok. With ten

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Speaker 2: o'clock in the morning, we saw it coming Scotus with

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Speaker 2: a ruling. They upheld the law. They upheld the ban

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Speaker 2: or dive vest dive vest or ban law that no

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Speaker 2: one seems to like. Anymore interesting development over the hours

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Speaker 2: of last evening that you might have heard about here

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Speaker 2: before the SCOTUS ruled in, Joe Biden says he's not

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Speaker 2: going to enforce the ban that was supposed to take

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Speaker 2: effect this weekend, right the nineteenth, So he's basically leaving

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Speaker 2: this to Donald Trump and Donald Trump. It's kind of

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Speaker 2: all about TikTok now. Matt Shettenholm's been knee deep in

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Speaker 2: this for months and months and months analyzing and reporting

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Speaker 2: for Bloomberg Intelligence, and I'm glad to say he's at

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Speaker 2: the table with us right now. Matt, thank you for

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Speaker 2: coming in. So you know, you just read the headline,

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Speaker 2: you think, wow, TikTok's going down this weekend. But these

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Speaker 2: two presidents outgoing and incoming, seem to have different ideas.

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Speaker 2: Law Makers who want to sympathize with Donald Trump suddenly

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Speaker 2: loved TikTok even though it was a danger to America

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Speaker 2: five minutes ago. What's going to happen this weekend? Does

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Speaker 2: it go dark or is there an interruption?

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Speaker 7: Well, TikTok told the Supreme Court last Friday that if

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Speaker 7: the Supreme Court rules this way, it will go dark

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Speaker 7: on Sunday. So it's a it's a really interesting question.

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Speaker 7: And the key thing here is it's not necessarily up

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Speaker 7: to the president's. Congress passed this law and it makes

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Speaker 7: any company that makes TikTok available on Sunday or after

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Speaker 7: that date liable for five thousand dollars per user. TikTok

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Speaker 7: has one hundred and seventy million users. You do that math,

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Speaker 7: you get to eight over eight hundred billion dollars in liability.

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Speaker 7: So if you're a company that makes TikTok available, are

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Speaker 7: you going to take the president's word on that? Or

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Speaker 7: do you say, look, if you want us to keep

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Speaker 7: making TikTok available, change the law, go back to Congress.

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Speaker 2: So let's delineate though. Are we talking about it being

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Speaker 2: available in the app stores or are we talking about

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Speaker 2: what's actually on our phones? Because we were told, well,

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Speaker 2: if they do ban it, it'll basimply kind of fade out.

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Speaker 2: You won't be able to upgrade it at some point

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Speaker 2: or update the app. But it's not like it's going

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Speaker 2: to disappear from your phone. So what would happen to them?

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Speaker 7: Exactly right, So the app won't disappear from your phone.

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Speaker 7: But what the law says is that any company that

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Speaker 7: one carries it in an app store and continues to

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Speaker 7: make that available, but also any internet hosting service. So

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Speaker 7: these companies that make TikTok work on the back end.

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Speaker 7: So TikTok likely works with Oracle, It might work with

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Speaker 7: other cloud computing companies to make all these videos load

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Speaker 7: for you It companies can't operate within the United States

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Speaker 7: to make the app keep updating within with the you know,

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Speaker 7: for American users, unless they're willing to believe this promise

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Speaker 7: that hey, we we won't enforce it. If President Trump

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Speaker 7: comes out and says something like that and to me,

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Speaker 7: that's a huge risk to take. If I'm a company,

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Speaker 7: I'm not sure I would take it.

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Speaker 2: Is there an expectation? And of course, again we've already

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Speaker 2: referenced the CEO of TikTok's at a p at the inauguration,

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Speaker 2: which you might have a take on. It's a remarkable

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Speaker 2: bit of optics we're going to have. I guess I

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Speaker 2: wonder will he be seated in the rotunda now that

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Speaker 2: this is shrinking. That could be the first or one

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Speaker 2: of the first eos from Donald Trump right to turn

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Speaker 2: this around. Or would it have to be Congressional action

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Speaker 2: to undo the law? I think we may see both.

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Speaker 7: But the point though, is that an executive order from

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Speaker 7: President Trump can't change the law. You know, he can say, look,

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Speaker 7: I'm not going to enforce this law, but he can't

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Speaker 7: go and change the fact that these companies face all

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Speaker 7: this liability. So the logical path to change the law

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Speaker 7: is to go back to Congress. I did think that

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Speaker 7: Byte Dance and TikTok had some good news yesterday when

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Speaker 7: Chuck Schumer came out and said.

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Speaker 2: Look, wasn't that something.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, we need to sell this app, we need to

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Speaker 7: force a sale. But maybe we need to give him

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Speaker 7: more time.

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Speaker 2: Referring to the thousands or millions of influencers who make

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Speaker 2: a living, they wouldn't be making money this weekend under

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Speaker 2: that scenario. That's right.

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Speaker 7: I think it could go dark temporarily, and then there's

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Speaker 7: a question of can Congress fix it and maybe push

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Speaker 7: it out another two hundred and seventy days to force

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Speaker 7: that sale.

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Speaker 2: Is somebody really buying this thing, Xelon buying it? What's

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Speaker 2: happening with that, you know?

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Speaker 7: Is the biggest question in my view is will byte

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Speaker 7: Dance sell it? So even before you talk about who's

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Speaker 7: going to go buy it, will Bite Dance sell it,

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Speaker 7: Will China allow us sale? And any sale, is it

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Speaker 7: going to involve the algorithm? And what good is getting

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Speaker 7: TikTok if you don't get the algorithm? So to me,

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Speaker 7: like that's the hang up on the sale. We need

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Speaker 7: byte Dance to be willing to sell first.

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Speaker 2: I told you he's been living this stuff. The perfect

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Speaker 2: person to talk to you right now, Matt, Thank you

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Speaker 2: so much. Matt Shettenhelm at the Great Bloomberg Intelligence, the

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Speaker 2: home of Nathan Dean. He's going to come and talk

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Speaker 2: to us next. We'll let you know what happens to

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Speaker 2: TikTok over the weekend, or you can just look at

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Speaker 2: your phone. It's a big political situation here in Washington. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: this coming a day after Scott Bessen testified on Capitol Hill,

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Speaker 2: and we're hearing he could be at least close to

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Speaker 2: a day one confirmation our next Treasury secretary, who had

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Speaker 2: a lot to say about tariffs and yes, taxes, specific

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Speaker 2: the twenty seventeen Trump tax cuts.

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Speaker 8: Let's listen, this is the single most important economic issue

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Speaker 8: of the day.

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Speaker 2: This is past fail that if we do not.

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Speaker 8: They fix these tax cuts, if we do not renew

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Speaker 8: and extend, then we will be facing an economic calamity,

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Speaker 8: and as always with financial instability that falls on the

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Speaker 8: middle and working class people.

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Speaker 2: We get into it now with Bloomberg Intelligence's senior US

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Speaker 2: policy analyst, is pol Swene going to be upset with

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Speaker 2: me for doing all this bi they're the best in

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Speaker 2: the business. Nathan's Phone's been ringing. We talk about it

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Speaker 2: every week here. Good to see Nathan Dean about confirmations

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Speaker 2: now or is it just foregone that Trump's getting his team?

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Speaker 9: Well, I think that he's going to get most of

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Speaker 9: his team and then look from the GOP perspective, you

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Speaker 9: can only reject a couple of those. And I think,

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Speaker 9: based off of the Democratic questions we saw this week,

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Speaker 9: a lot of that is being saved for Tulca Gabbert

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Speaker 9: and you know Patel over at the FBI, So I

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Speaker 9: think a lot of the questions. Look, Senator Marco Rubio,

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Speaker 9: he's gonna have the easiest path to confirmation, Scott besstt.

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Speaker 9: He's getting a lot of Democratic votes. Even the Pete

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Speaker 9: Hegseth hearing with Secretary of Defense. You know, the Democrats

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Speaker 9: were sort of curtailed in their criticism of him, which.

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Speaker 2: Makes me think that a lot of these nominees are

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Speaker 2: going to get through. So how do you do yesterday

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Speaker 2: in making the argument that what you think about tariffs

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Speaker 2: might not be true, that we have our own approach,

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Speaker 2: that the composite of all of our policies will in

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Speaker 2: fact spur growth, not inflation or balloon deficits. Is the

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Speaker 2: market buying this because you look at the bond market

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Speaker 2: and I'm wondering, So.

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Speaker 9: You know, I don't think the market. So let's just

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Speaker 9: back up the market. I think views Scott Bessont as

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Speaker 9: the moderated voice when it comes to these tariff arguments,

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Speaker 9: especially when you compare him to Howard Lucknick, the Commerce

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Speaker 9: Secretary nomine and so forth like that. You know, however,

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Speaker 9: Scott Besson has said and in those in that confirmation hearing,

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Speaker 9: he said, these tariffs are coming. It's just a matter

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Speaker 9: of how hard and how high and how quickly or

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Speaker 9: is it going to be a way to conduct negotiations.

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Speaker 9: And I think that's the Wall Street view here. The

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Speaker 9: Wall Street view is is that come Monday, when these

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Speaker 9: executive orders are signed, there's still going to be wiggle room.

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Speaker 9: Now he may be in the minority here, but I

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Speaker 9: would also argue that, you know, when it comes to tariffs,

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Speaker 9: there are a lot of other groups involved, Commerce, USTR

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Speaker 9: and so forth like that. And I think Scott Besson's message,

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Speaker 9: why you know, he answered a lot about the tariffs. Initially,

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Speaker 9: he focused a lot more on the hearing on tax

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Speaker 9: reform because I think that for him, the tax extensions

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Speaker 9: of twenty seventeen are the most important thing for him

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Speaker 9: in twenty twenty five.

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Speaker 2: Well, and he's framing it is, we don't do this,

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Speaker 2: as we just heard the biggest tax cut on a

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Speaker 2: tax hike, rather on the middle class. But when you

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Speaker 2: start talking about phasing in tariffs so some of the

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Speaker 2: other ideas that have come about, it's creating a new

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Speaker 2: level of uncertainty. Would Wall Street rather know what's going

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Speaker 2: to happen and if it's across the board ten percent

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Speaker 2: tariffs versus being uncertain about potentially lower tariffs, that would

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Speaker 2: be friendlier to an investor.

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Speaker 9: So obviously, when you get certainty, you at least get

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Speaker 9: the ability to do which you know you can react

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Speaker 9: to it. So, but there are a couple ways that

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Speaker 9: President Trump will put these tariffs into place, and most

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Speaker 9: of them involve ordering the Department of Commerce to conduct

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Speaker 9: the study and then come back in two to three

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Speaker 9: months and those negotiations take place. I think Wall Street

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Speaker 9: would actually prefer that route. However, President Trump does have

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Speaker 9: the ability to declare an economic disaster and these tariffs,

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Speaker 9: I mean, we looked into it. All you have to

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Speaker 9: do is go over to customs and change a number.

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Speaker 2: And hit enter. How about that and these.

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Speaker 9: Numbers go up and these tariffs take place. That would

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Speaker 9: be much more of a shock, and I think Wall

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Speaker 9: Street really wouldn't want that. However, you know, he did

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Speaker 9: this back in twenty nineteen as well with Mexico. Representatives

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Speaker 9: of Mexico City came to Washington, there was a negotiation,

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Speaker 9: and those tariff's threats never actually came into fruition. So

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Speaker 9: we continue to believe that, yes, we are going to

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Speaker 9: see an executive order on Monday about tariffs. But we

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Speaker 9: continue to believe that this executive order maybe put out

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Speaker 9: a small tariff, but will lead to further negotiations before

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Speaker 9: the high tariff takes into place.

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Speaker 2: Do we get crypto eos on Monday? And where are

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Speaker 2: we on this national reserve? I still don't understand how

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Speaker 2: it works. Maybe you can tell me if this is

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Speaker 2: going to happen.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, So I think we are going to get to

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Speaker 9: a cryptocurrency executive order. It will be one of those

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Speaker 9: more symbolic ones saying this is the cryptocurrency is going

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Speaker 9: to be like a national priority or something like that.

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Speaker 2: Guy.

435
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Speaker 9: But what you're talking about is this idea of a cryptocurrency,

436
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:29,760
Speaker 9: you know, sovereign wealth fund.

437
00:21:29,800 --> 00:21:32,159
Speaker 2: If you Fort Knox of bitcoin exactly, how do you

438
00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:32,479
Speaker 2: do that?

439
00:21:32,520 --> 00:21:32,679
Speaker 10: You know?

440
00:21:32,760 --> 00:21:35,760
Speaker 9: Senator Lummis from Wyoming is heavily involved. The idea here

441
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 9: is that you would potentially buy five percent of the

442
00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,760
Speaker 9: world's bitcoin. Now, I think what will happen is the

443
00:21:40,800 --> 00:21:43,639
Speaker 9: United States has approximately around two hundred and twelve thousand

444
00:21:43,640 --> 00:21:46,479
Speaker 9: bitcoin through enforcement actions, right some of its sprinkled over

445
00:21:46,480 --> 00:21:48,840
Speaker 9: a commerce some of it are treasury and President Trump

446
00:21:48,840 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 9: could put an executive order out saying, look, let's put

447
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:53,840
Speaker 9: that together and call that the Sovereign Wealth Fund. But

448
00:21:53,880 --> 00:21:57,560
Speaker 9: President Trump is also in create our voice support for

449
00:21:57,840 --> 00:22:01,120
Speaker 9: US based cryptocurrencies, which is not bitcoin.

450
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:03,080
Speaker 2: So if I'm a holder of bitcoin.

451
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:04,359
Speaker 9: And I want this to go up to one hundred

452
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 9: and seventy five thousand dollars, and President Trump is looking

453
00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:09,720
Speaker 9: at US based cryptocurrencies, you know.

454
00:22:09,680 --> 00:22:12,240
Speaker 2: There's a conversation. We're totally out of time. There's a

455
00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:17,720
Speaker 2: conversation in the maga social media world that believes the

456
00:22:17,800 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 2: government will sell all of that seized crypto just to

457
00:22:21,840 --> 00:22:24,760
Speaker 2: drive the price down and embarrassed Donald Trump. Could that happen?

458
00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:27,880
Speaker 9: Well, Senator Alumnus actually spoke against some of the selling

459
00:22:27,920 --> 00:22:29,040
Speaker 9: that occurred yesterday, So.

460
00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:31,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, we'll see what happened yesterday, is that what they're doing.

461
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:34,280
Speaker 9: Some of the USh marshalls sold a little bit of bitcoins, so.

462
00:22:34,240 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 2: It's happening a little bit a little bit. We have

463
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:40,840
Speaker 2: to talk more about that. Check the price of bitcoin

464
00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:43,040
Speaker 2: while we're at it, because this is Bloomberg. It's looking

465
00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:46,399
Speaker 2: pretty good back above one hundred and four thousand dollars,

466
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:49,439
Speaker 2: up five percent. That's Nathan Dean at Bloomberg Intelligence Our

467
00:22:49,520 --> 00:22:50,960
Speaker 2: Panels next on Bloomberg.

468
00:22:54,240 --> 00:22:57,720
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch

469
00:22:57,760 --> 00:23:01,200
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five Peter on almal

470
00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:04,160
Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Otto with the Blue Birk Business app.

471
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch

472
00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:10,159
Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.

473
00:23:10,560 --> 00:23:12,560
Speaker 2: It's the fastest show in politics with a lot to

474
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:14,560
Speaker 2: cover today. Things have been moving pretty fast to day

475
00:23:14,600 --> 00:23:19,000
Speaker 2: the friday before Donald Trumps swearing in the final friday

476
00:23:19,040 --> 00:23:22,159
Speaker 2: of Joe Biden's administration and Kaylee, Boy, We've got a

477
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:25,680
Speaker 2: lot happen in this weekend. The city is just in lockdown.

478
00:23:25,800 --> 00:23:28,680
Speaker 2: It's Fortress Washington. You kind of can't even drive into

479
00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 2: town now as it is, and it's going to keep

480
00:23:31,119 --> 00:23:34,639
Speaker 2: increasing with the security, the Jersey barriers, the fencing and

481
00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 2: the whole bit. Over the weekend. Donald Trump's going to

482
00:23:36,480 --> 00:23:38,800
Speaker 2: have a victory rally Sunday night at Capital One Arena,

483
00:23:38,840 --> 00:23:41,240
Speaker 2: The interesting thing is he's going back the next day.

484
00:23:41,520 --> 00:23:43,960
Speaker 11: Yeah, at least according to his post on true Social

485
00:23:44,080 --> 00:23:46,520
Speaker 11: people who would have been on the National Mall, I

486
00:23:46,520 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 11: guess to attend the inauguration in person, or at least

487
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:52,119
Speaker 11: view it from the mall can now view it inside

488
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:54,360
Speaker 11: the Capitol One arena. And then Donald Trump, after he's

489
00:23:54,400 --> 00:23:57,920
Speaker 11: sworn in, intends to parade to Capital One and join

490
00:23:57,960 --> 00:24:01,560
Speaker 11: supporters there for I guess what will be a two nights.

491
00:24:01,320 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 2: That's right, exactly. This is our way of telling you.

492
00:24:03,760 --> 00:24:07,639
Speaker 2: The inauguration has been moved indoors. It's going to be

493
00:24:07,720 --> 00:24:09,879
Speaker 2: nine degrees in town on Monday. And just like we

494
00:24:09,920 --> 00:24:12,520
Speaker 2: saw Ronald Reagan do well a little bit differently because

495
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,600
Speaker 2: they went to the White House for that, they're going

496
00:24:14,640 --> 00:24:17,919
Speaker 2: to move the ceremony into the Capital Rotunda. Yep, and

497
00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,199
Speaker 2: good luck getting a seat. How do they fit that

498
00:24:20,280 --> 00:24:21,480
Speaker 2: many egos in one room?

499
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 11: Well, that's an excellent question. We have a lot of

500
00:24:23,560 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 11: questions actually about how logistically this is going to work.

501
00:24:26,400 --> 00:24:28,560
Speaker 11: But this would be only the third time in history

502
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:32,240
Speaker 11: the inauguration doesn't happen outdoors. So on that note, let's

503
00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 11: assemble our political panel with their vast knowledge of American

504
00:24:35,119 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 11: Political History Genie Shanzay, And that was with US Senior

505
00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:39,119
Speaker 11: Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study of the

506
00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,719
Speaker 11: Presidency in Congress, alongside Rick Davis stone Court Capital partner,

507
00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:46,920
Speaker 11: both of them Bloomberg Politics contributors. So Rick, it was

508
00:24:47,040 --> 00:24:50,600
Speaker 11: raised and by some reporters over at Politico, this notion

509
00:24:50,640 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 11: that this is Donald Trump's second inauguration and whether or

510
00:24:54,800 --> 00:24:57,720
Speaker 11: not this would actually be moved indoors if it was

511
00:24:57,800 --> 00:24:59,879
Speaker 11: his first, because you miss out on a lot of

512
00:24:59,880 --> 00:25:01,080
Speaker 11: the pomp and circumstance.

513
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't know.

514
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:06,520
Speaker 6: I mean I think it's a lot of second guessing.

515
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:09,760
Speaker 6: They'll be pomp and circumstance. I mean, they'll be a

516
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 6: nice ceremony that'll get broadcasts live on television and social media.

517
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:19,879
Speaker 6: Him surrounded by his you know, incoming cabinet and Congress.

518
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:24,640
Speaker 6: So there'll be a nice element of what we love

519
00:25:24,760 --> 00:25:29,560
Speaker 6: about America, which is our institutions and our formalities of them.

520
00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,439
Speaker 6: But this is really Donald Trump. I mean, you know,

521
00:25:33,520 --> 00:25:37,760
Speaker 6: he's not the kind of guy who wants to, you know,

522
00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 6: sort of freeze as he's giving a speech which could

523
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 6: last quite some time, right, I mean, it wouldn't be

524
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:47,320
Speaker 6: surprised that his inaugural address will go over an hour,

525
00:25:48,280 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 6: and the replacement is classic Donald Trump. One more big rally,

526
00:25:53,960 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 6: right back to back with another one the day before.

527
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 6: And I wouldn't be surprised by the way that this

528
00:25:58,840 --> 00:26:01,119
Speaker 6: isn't a trend in his present see where you know,

529
00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:04,440
Speaker 6: once a month, once a quarter, there's a big rally somewhere.

530
00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,880
Speaker 6: He's not running for anything, but he loves his rallies.

531
00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 2: We should let everyone know that Rick Davis was on

532
00:26:11,119 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan's inaugural committee the last time this had to happen,

533
00:26:14,440 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 2: so Rick knows what he's talking about. Genie was ten

534
00:26:17,760 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 2: degrees when Barack Obama was sworn into office and I

535
00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 2: was out there shivering in the shade with a lot

536
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:27,640
Speaker 2: of people underneath the dome. It was many hours of freezing.

537
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,840
Speaker 2: George W. Bush had freezing rain at his first inauguration.

538
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:33,960
Speaker 2: What do you make of this call?

539
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,080
Speaker 12: Well, I think it shows that Republicans don't like to

540
00:26:39,119 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 12: be cold, and Democrats, tough as we are, we're willing to.

541
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,840
Speaker 5: Do it, be out there and cold.

542
00:26:45,200 --> 00:26:47,959
Speaker 2: You know, But can I just say.

543
00:26:48,840 --> 00:26:52,840
Speaker 12: No, I don't. Don't you guys think it's sort of fitting.

544
00:26:53,320 --> 00:26:56,720
Speaker 12: We all of us started out this election cycle in

545
00:26:57,040 --> 00:27:00,680
Speaker 12: Iowa and it was like pretty good, yes or something,

546
00:27:01,040 --> 00:27:05,920
Speaker 12: and now coming to a painful end on Monday nine degrees.

547
00:27:06,000 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 12: So in some ways it's sort of the encapsulation of

548
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,639
Speaker 12: what this entire election season has been like.

549
00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:17,720
Speaker 11: Old at least in Iowa. We all got to be

550
00:27:18,040 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 11: inside the studio, sure really going outside that which was

551
00:27:22,160 --> 00:27:24,480
Speaker 11: also really which was freezing. Yeah, it was all relative,

552
00:27:24,480 --> 00:27:26,960
Speaker 11: absolutely different. Then I wasn't warm for like five days

553
00:27:27,000 --> 00:27:29,679
Speaker 11: straight at any point. I don't think we just had

554
00:27:29,720 --> 00:27:33,040
Speaker 11: a red line cross a red headline crossing the Bloomberg terminal.

555
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:34,680
Speaker 11: I do want to mention as we look ahead to

556
00:27:34,720 --> 00:27:37,560
Speaker 11: the inauguration, knowing that it won't just be Donald Trump

557
00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:40,720
Speaker 11: who is getting sworn in as president, but current Ohio

558
00:27:40,840 --> 00:27:44,040
Speaker 11: Senator JD. Vance will be sworn in as vice president,

559
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,840
Speaker 11: leaving open a vacancy for a Senate seat in Ohio.

560
00:27:46,920 --> 00:27:50,399
Speaker 11: And we just got news from Ohio's governor, Governor DeWine,

561
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:54,480
Speaker 11: announcing he will fill Vince's Ohio Senate seat with John Houstead,

562
00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:58,119
Speaker 11: who is currently the Lieutenant governor of Ohio. So this

563
00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,159
Speaker 11: is confirmation of that after their been some rumblings in

564
00:28:01,200 --> 00:28:03,960
Speaker 11: recent days Joe about this seat potentially going to the

565
00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 11: Vake Rama Swamp.

566
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's something. There's also been talk of him

567
00:28:07,119 --> 00:28:08,280
Speaker 2: wanting to run for governor.

568
00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:10,720
Speaker 11: The Washington Post is reporting maybe.

569
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 2: Something that he is really going to consider. This follows

570
00:28:13,040 --> 00:28:16,680
Speaker 2: Ronda Santis's pick of Ashley Moody to fill Florida's VACANCYTS.

571
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:18,640
Speaker 2: We're getting a better sense of the makeup here.

572
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,280
Speaker 11: Yeah, I guess the question is knowing these were going

573
00:28:21,320 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 11: to be Republican seats, regardless how much the individuals selected

574
00:28:25,200 --> 00:28:27,360
Speaker 11: really matter when they're heading into a Senate that has

575
00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:29,360
Speaker 11: a fairly comfortable Republican majority.

576
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:31,919
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, who spent enough time in the Senate to

577
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,200
Speaker 2: have a feeling on this, what do you make of

578
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 2: these two decisions?

579
00:28:34,840 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, these both really follow historical norms. It's not unusual

580
00:28:39,600 --> 00:28:42,560
Speaker 6: for when you have a vacancy, especially in the Senate,

581
00:28:42,720 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 6: for sort of the senior ranking party official who's replacing

582
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:51,880
Speaker 6: someone to be put into that seat, you know, whether

583
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:53,719
Speaker 6: it's an attorney general, lieutenant governor.

584
00:28:53,800 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: So that is actually the mainstream.

585
00:28:55,960 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 6: You know, we heard rumors that Laura Trump maybe become

586
00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 6: senator from Florida. That would have really broken the norms,

587
00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,280
Speaker 6: and of course, uh, the Vake Ramaswami, who's never held

588
00:29:07,280 --> 00:29:11,080
Speaker 6: public office, would be another great example of breaking.

589
00:29:10,680 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 2: That norm in Ohio.

590
00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 6: So what we're really seeing at the start of the

591
00:29:14,680 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 6: Trump administration is a lot of normal, which I don't

592
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,160
Speaker 6: think anybody would have actually been on.

593
00:29:20,920 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: Uh.

594
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:24,920
Speaker 6: And so I do think that it's a it's an

595
00:29:24,960 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 6: interesting indication of what's going on in really two key

596
00:29:28,520 --> 00:29:32,280
Speaker 6: Republican states like Florida and Ohio, that it's sort of

597
00:29:32,360 --> 00:29:35,640
Speaker 6: business as usual. And by the way, these two governors

598
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:38,600
Speaker 6: not big Trump supporters. Mike Dwaine not a Trump guy

599
00:29:38,640 --> 00:29:41,400
Speaker 6: at all. The Santas ran against him. You know, they

600
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:44,320
Speaker 6: sort of they picked the people they thought would best

601
00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,600
Speaker 6: represent the state in the United States Senate, in those

602
00:29:47,720 --> 00:29:49,360
Speaker 6: in those each respective states.

603
00:29:50,720 --> 00:29:53,560
Speaker 11: Well, and I guess that person for governor to wine

604
00:29:53,640 --> 00:29:55,960
Speaker 11: this time did not seem to be the Vake Ramaswami.

605
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,920
Speaker 11: But as I mentioned, Genie, the Washington Post is reporting

606
00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,040
Speaker 11: that Ramaswami is gear up for a governor's bid in

607
00:30:02,120 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 11: twenty twenty six. An Ohio operative they cite saying that

608
00:30:05,640 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 11: Vig's base plan is the same to get accomplishments at DOGE.

609
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:11,160
Speaker 11: The Department of Governor efficiency he's co leading with Elon

610
00:30:11,240 --> 00:30:15,400
Speaker 11: Musk and then announce a run for governor shortly. What

611
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 11: do you make of that?

612
00:30:18,000 --> 00:30:21,120
Speaker 12: Yeah, you know, I did never thought that he would

613
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:25,040
Speaker 12: want to fill this seat at this time. You know,

614
00:30:25,120 --> 00:30:28,080
Speaker 12: I think he wants to get his bona fides working,

615
00:30:28,120 --> 00:30:30,840
Speaker 12: as you mentioned in Doge, and then make a run

616
00:30:31,000 --> 00:30:34,240
Speaker 12: for the top seat in his home.

617
00:30:34,040 --> 00:30:35,080
Speaker 5: State or in his state.

618
00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:37,960
Speaker 12: So, you know, I think it's a plan that actually

619
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:40,880
Speaker 12: does make sense. Now, obviously a lot can happen in

620
00:30:40,920 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 12: a short period of time, so certainly not a guaranteed thing,

621
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,800
Speaker 12: But I think he does have a viable path forward,

622
00:30:50,160 --> 00:30:54,000
Speaker 12: and he certainly has the support and funding to get

623
00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:56,760
Speaker 12: there if he really wants to. So I do think

624
00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 12: it's a plan that makes more sense than put sticking.

625
00:30:59,520 --> 00:30:59,840
Speaker 3: In in this.

626
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,720
Speaker 2: We've got a breaking story on the terminal, Kiley, that

627
00:31:04,760 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 2: we should mention because it of course plays into the

628
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:10,200
Speaker 2: transition that we're talking about here. The Federal Reserve announcing

629
00:31:10,240 --> 00:31:12,520
Speaker 2: today is withdrawing from the network of central banks and

630
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 2: supervisors for greening the financial system. This is a coalition

631
00:31:19,080 --> 00:31:23,840
Speaker 2: of banks. This goes back to twenty seventeen in studying

632
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:29,240
Speaker 2: climate risk is the transition the transformation complete?

633
00:31:29,800 --> 00:31:35,000
Speaker 6: Rick, Yeah, we can see the anticipation of the Trump

634
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:40,120
Speaker 6: administration highly critical on the outside of Mission creep at

635
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:42,440
Speaker 6: the FED, especially as it relates.

636
00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:43,800
Speaker 2: To climate rules.

637
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,720
Speaker 6: And I think this is just a declaration of the

638
00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:50,720
Speaker 6: obvious to come right, and so rather than make it

639
00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:54,479
Speaker 6: an issue for the Trump folks, you know, they're just

640
00:31:54,520 --> 00:31:56,840
Speaker 6: sort of cleaning the deck for the new administration.

641
00:31:57,360 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 3: You know.

642
00:31:57,600 --> 00:32:00,560
Speaker 6: Look, the good news about Donald Trump is we've already

643
00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:03,080
Speaker 6: seen one term of him and we've had him around

644
00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 6: for eight years pontificating on every issue that we could

645
00:32:06,520 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 6: ever imagine, and so it's not a hard guess where

646
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,920
Speaker 6: he's going to wind up now. He's a flip flopper,

647
00:32:13,080 --> 00:32:16,200
Speaker 6: loves to change his mind. TikTok's a good example. We're

648
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 6: not sure where all that's going to come down. So

649
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 6: it always adds an element of surprise. But we know

650
00:32:21,600 --> 00:32:23,880
Speaker 6: what we're getting into, and so do these regulators, and

651
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 6: it's not a surprise to me that they would immediately

652
00:32:27,280 --> 00:32:29,280
Speaker 6: start to process a new approach.

653
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 11: Well, and it's not just the regulators. We should point

654
00:32:33,280 --> 00:32:35,320
Speaker 11: out that the banks are pulling out of net zero

655
00:32:35,400 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 11: alliances as well. The net zero Banking Alliance specifically, just

656
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,360
Speaker 11: within the last month, has lost Goldman, Sacks, Wells, Fargo

657
00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 11: City Group, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan Chase,

658
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:46,560
Speaker 11: basically all the big ones. Black Rock pulled out of

659
00:32:46,560 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 11: an equivalent net zero asset Managers Alliance. This is I

660
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 11: guess you could say Genie big business adjusting to the

661
00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,160
Speaker 11: landscape under Donald Trump, and the same could be said

662
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 11: for other companies as well. Look at what Meta is doing,

663
00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 11: changing personnel and pulling back on fact checking.

664
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:05,040
Speaker 5: That's absolutely right.

665
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,280
Speaker 12: I mean, you know, it doesn't take a lot to

666
00:33:07,400 --> 00:33:10,760
Speaker 12: read the tea leaves of what happened in November. They

667
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,760
Speaker 12: see a total shift in Washington, d C. In terms

668
00:33:13,760 --> 00:33:16,959
Speaker 12: of the power base. But they also, and I think importantly,

669
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:20,560
Speaker 12: also see a shift with the American public. And so

670
00:33:20,720 --> 00:33:23,360
Speaker 12: we do see from as you mentioned, from tech to

671
00:33:23,400 --> 00:33:28,000
Speaker 12: the financial circles and elsewhere, an adjustment to that. You know,

672
00:33:28,200 --> 00:33:32,600
Speaker 12: it is particularly worth noting though, you know, these changes

673
00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:35,720
Speaker 12: as it pertains to issues involving climate and green are

674
00:33:35,760 --> 00:33:39,640
Speaker 12: happening at the same time that California is suffering.

675
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 5: From these tremendous wildfires.

676
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:45,719
Speaker 12: So you know, climate change remains an existential crisis, and

677
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:49,280
Speaker 12: we do depend on our leadership to move us forward

678
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 12: on that, and that is a concern to a lot

679
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:51,719
Speaker 12: of people.

680
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:57,000
Speaker 2: Well, things are winding down. Here are a remaining moment,

681
00:33:57,320 --> 00:34:00,920
Speaker 2: Rick Davis, Your thoughts on Joe Biden final words. He's

682
00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:03,640
Speaker 2: going to be delivering his final speech, likely publicly at

683
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,120
Speaker 2: least of his presidency, a real formal speech here this hour.

684
00:34:07,840 --> 00:34:11,359
Speaker 2: How will Americans remember him as we swear in Donald

685
00:34:11,400 --> 00:34:15,719
Speaker 2: Trump on Monday. Yeah, Look, I think everybody's going to

686
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 2: at least initially see Joe Biden in a prism of age. Right,

687
00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 2: he was the first real president to be forced out

688
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 2: because of his age. And I must say, I mean

689
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:33,680
Speaker 2: he's turning it over to what will be the oldest

690
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:37,800
Speaker 2: person ever sworn in to the presidency in history.

691
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:41,680
Speaker 6: And he beats Joe Biden by five months, Donald Trump.

692
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 6: And so we are in an era where age has

693
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:49,040
Speaker 6: become a thing with elected officials, whether it's in the Senate,

694
00:34:49,040 --> 00:34:51,480
Speaker 6: the House, or the presidency. And so I think that

695
00:34:51,520 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 6: will still be an issue that he'll have to deal with.

696
00:34:56,120 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 2: They'll be back with us on the late edition of

697
00:34:58,719 --> 00:35:01,480
Speaker 2: Balance of Power that's at five Washington time, Rick Davis,

698
00:35:01,520 --> 00:35:05,040
Speaker 2: Genie Shanzano Bloomberg Politics contributors stay with us. A lot

699
00:35:05,040 --> 00:35:08,320
Speaker 2: more to follow here on Balance of Power. This is Bloomberg.

700
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch

701
00:35:14,120 --> 00:35:17,600
Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple,

702
00:35:17,640 --> 00:35:20,680
Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You

703
00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:24,160
Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship

704
00:35:24,239 --> 00:35:28,800
Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg. Eleven thirty.

705
00:35:29,600 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 11: Today's Supreme Court decision upholding the law that would see

706
00:35:32,760 --> 00:35:37,520
Speaker 11: TikTok band if not divested by Sunday. And interestingly, come Monday,

707
00:35:37,880 --> 00:35:41,879
Speaker 11: TikTok CEO show Chew. We'll be here in Washington. He's

708
00:35:41,880 --> 00:35:46,480
Speaker 11: planning to attend Donald Trump's inauguration, which has raised some eyebrows.

709
00:35:46,480 --> 00:35:49,400
Speaker 11: And you know what raised eyebrows as well, Joe, was

710
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:53,759
Speaker 11: the invitation Donald Trump extended to another Chinese individual, the

711
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:56,319
Speaker 11: Chinese president. In fact, Ji Jinping was invited to the

712
00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,360
Speaker 11: inauguration that we learned today he is not coming. He

713
00:35:59,480 --> 00:36:02,920
Speaker 11: is those said in his stead China's Vice President.

714
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:07,600
Speaker 2: Han Jan optics are everything. He's still though, got on

715
00:36:07,640 --> 00:36:10,080
Speaker 2: the horn with President she. You know, they were not

716
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,839
Speaker 2: waiting until the swearing in. Donald Trump's been in touch

717
00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:14,920
Speaker 2: with any number of world leaders, some of whom have

718
00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:16,880
Speaker 2: gone to mar A Lago. And as we hear now

719
00:36:16,920 --> 00:36:19,960
Speaker 2: from Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, the phone was ringing and the

720
00:36:20,000 --> 00:36:21,880
Speaker 2: calls coming from Beijing. Tyler, what do we know?

721
00:36:22,239 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 10: Yeah, Joe So President elect Trump confirming this call in

722
00:36:25,120 --> 00:36:27,600
Speaker 10: a post on truth Social saying that it was quote

723
00:36:27,800 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 10: very good, but also saying that they spoke about a

724
00:36:29,880 --> 00:36:32,480
Speaker 10: range of issues, including balancing trade Fetanahl, which we know

725
00:36:32,640 --> 00:36:35,240
Speaker 10: was a campaign issue for him on the campaign trail,

726
00:36:35,400 --> 00:36:38,840
Speaker 10: but also about TikTok. Now their call came before the

727
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,920
Speaker 10: Supreme Court brought down their decision today, but also on

728
00:36:41,960 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 10: the heels of as Cane mentioned, just learning that the

729
00:36:44,640 --> 00:36:49,640
Speaker 10: TikTok CEO show cho will be at the inauguration on Monday.

730
00:36:49,640 --> 00:36:51,759
Speaker 10: And I was on Capitol Hill yesterday I had a

731
00:36:51,880 --> 00:36:54,200
Speaker 10: chance to catch up with the Senator Mark Warner. He's

732
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:57,040
Speaker 10: a Democrat, of course, the ranking member on Senate Intel,

733
00:36:57,080 --> 00:36:58,840
Speaker 10: but he was the chair of the committee when the

734
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,719
Speaker 10: TikTok bill originally passed, and of course has been on

735
00:37:01,760 --> 00:37:04,600
Speaker 10: Balance of Power numerous times about that, and I asked

736
00:37:04,680 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 10: him about the TikTok CEO coming to the inauguration, and

737
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 10: he said that he was confused by this. I want

738
00:37:11,160 --> 00:37:13,399
Speaker 10: you to take a lesson to what he told reporters here.

739
00:37:14,080 --> 00:37:17,360
Speaker 13: I don't get it. Eighty percent of the Congress Democrats

740
00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:21,440
Speaker 13: Republicans agreed the TikTok is a huge national security concern.

741
00:37:22,520 --> 00:37:25,480
Speaker 13: I can't think of a potentially more powerful propaganda's guru.

742
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:28,200
Speaker 13: And the irony in all of this was Donald Trump

743
00:37:28,320 --> 00:37:31,080
Speaker 13: was the first guy to point out this problem of

744
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:34,040
Speaker 13: his administration had to convince me. They did a great

745
00:37:34,120 --> 00:37:37,480
Speaker 13: job of convincing me and the overwhelming members of Congress.

746
00:37:39,400 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 10: He goes on to say that he would actually support

747
00:37:41,760 --> 00:37:44,040
Speaker 10: delaying the band if that's what it would take to

748
00:37:44,200 --> 00:37:46,799
Speaker 10: get a deal over the finish line, but he said

749
00:37:46,840 --> 00:37:49,320
Speaker 10: that he doesn't understand how this squares with the incoming

750
00:37:49,360 --> 00:37:53,040
Speaker 10: Trump administration's rhetoric when it comes to getting tough on China.

751
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 10: Of course, Joe and Keiley. President elect Trump wanted to

752
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,040
Speaker 10: take that side of this. He's been saying all along

753
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:00,319
Speaker 10: that he is the only one that could potentially bring

754
00:38:00,360 --> 00:38:01,720
Speaker 10: a negotiation to the table.

755
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:04,920
Speaker 11: Well, but it's not only up to Donald Trump ultimately

756
00:38:05,000 --> 00:38:07,120
Speaker 11: to make a deal happen, China is going to have

757
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:10,560
Speaker 11: to sign off on any divestment, giving the algorithm and play.

758
00:38:10,400 --> 00:38:12,480
Speaker 10: Here right, right, And that's also why it's so interesting

759
00:38:12,520 --> 00:38:15,520
Speaker 10: to watch all of these influences and factors coming into

760
00:38:15,640 --> 00:38:18,360
Speaker 10: inauguration day. Since we know that Elon Musk will be

761
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:22,320
Speaker 10: there at the inauguration Bloomberg News reporting that Chinese officials

762
00:38:22,320 --> 00:38:25,160
Speaker 10: were looking at him as potentially being part of some

763
00:38:25,200 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 10: sort of acquisition. But then I'm also watching these other

764
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 10: big tech CEOs. Mark Zuckerberg's going to be there, and

765
00:38:29,480 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 10: we've been talking all along about how a potential ban

766
00:38:32,040 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 10: on TikTok right could impact Meta for instance, as creators

767
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,000
Speaker 10: and those seeking out content might look for other platforms

768
00:38:39,040 --> 00:38:40,360
Speaker 10: if this band goes into effect.

769
00:38:40,480 --> 00:38:43,920
Speaker 11: All right, Bloomberg, Tyler Kensel, great reporting, Thank you so much,

770
00:38:44,160 --> 00:38:47,239
Speaker 11: and Joe, and we consider this prospect of a deal

771
00:38:47,560 --> 00:38:49,960
Speaker 11: happening if it's to be someone like Elon Musk who

772
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:53,359
Speaker 11: also owns X or another tech company. Just earlier this week,

773
00:38:53,400 --> 00:38:55,879
Speaker 11: we had the outgoing chair of the FTC, Lina Khan,

774
00:38:56,000 --> 00:38:58,839
Speaker 11: in studio here with us and asked her who realistically

775
00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 11: would be able to get around and trust concerns by

776
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:03,719
Speaker 11: absorbing an app or a platform with one hundred and

777
00:39:03,760 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 11: seventy million users in the US without raising a flag.

778
00:39:07,160 --> 00:39:08,920
Speaker 11: And while she kind of danced around that a little bit,

779
00:39:08,920 --> 00:39:12,480
Speaker 11: she did say, you know, traditionally when you look at

780
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:14,960
Speaker 11: tech companies and like absorbing a company of that size,

781
00:39:14,960 --> 00:39:16,600
Speaker 11: that it might draw some scrutiny.

782
00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 2: I would think. Although we heard from Chuck Schumer on this, yeah,

783
00:39:21,239 --> 00:39:26,440
Speaker 2: just yesterday, his statement appealing to the hundreds of thousands

784
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 2: of influencers he actually mentioned on the floor who make

785
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:34,080
Speaker 2: a living here. Democrats have apparently come on over with

786
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 2: maybe the exception of Senator Warre. Yeah.

787
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 11: It's interesting how the winds change the closer we get

788
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,360
Speaker 11: to Donald Trump's inauguration, knowing Donald Trump has different feelings

789
00:39:43,360 --> 00:39:45,960
Speaker 11: about TikTok than he once did, and the winds have

790
00:39:46,120 --> 00:39:48,240
Speaker 11: changed and lead up to the inauguration in other areas

791
00:39:48,239 --> 00:39:51,480
Speaker 11: as well, knowing that Donald Trump issued threats, for example,

792
00:39:52,000 --> 00:39:55,399
Speaker 11: if Israeli hostages weren't returned by Monday when he takes

793
00:39:55,440 --> 00:39:57,759
Speaker 11: the oath of office, that there would be consequences and

794
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,640
Speaker 11: lo and behold, this week, we did, finally, after month effort,

795
00:40:00,800 --> 00:40:04,720
Speaker 11: see a breakthrough on a ceasfire deal between Israel and Hamas. Today,

796
00:40:04,760 --> 00:40:06,319
Speaker 11: after what had been a little bit of a hold

797
00:40:06,400 --> 00:40:08,960
Speaker 11: up in the Israeli Kanesse, they have now actually voted

798
00:40:09,000 --> 00:40:11,799
Speaker 11: to advance that deal and hostages could begin returning home

799
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:12,280
Speaker 11: on Sunday.

800
00:40:12,360 --> 00:40:14,880
Speaker 2: Yeah, this broke right on this program a couple of

801
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 2: days ago, as soon as Joe Biden was in front

802
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 2: of the podium talking about it, Benjaminettnye, who said they

803
00:40:19,880 --> 00:40:22,480
Speaker 2: were still reviewing details. It sounded like maybe things were

804
00:40:22,480 --> 00:40:24,920
Speaker 2: going to be slow walked, maybe even to coincide with

805
00:40:24,960 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 2: the inaugural on Monday, as Kaylee mentioned, Donald Trump promising

806
00:40:28,200 --> 00:40:31,080
Speaker 2: all hell to break loose in the Middle East if

807
00:40:31,120 --> 00:40:33,160
Speaker 2: the hostages were not released, or at least a deal

808
00:40:34,239 --> 00:40:36,759
Speaker 2: to have their release. But the Kanesse has signed off

809
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,120
Speaker 2: on this, Kayleie, and this is going to happen.

810
00:40:39,560 --> 00:40:41,319
Speaker 11: So we want to get more on the fact that

811
00:40:41,360 --> 00:40:42,960
Speaker 11: this is happening, and turn now to one of our

812
00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,799
Speaker 11: trusted voices here on Balance of Power. Carmeil Arbitt is

813
00:40:45,840 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 11: back with us. She is Atlantic Council Senior Fellow for

814
00:40:48,000 --> 00:40:52,080
Speaker 11: the Middle East Programs at the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.

815
00:40:52,160 --> 00:40:55,080
Speaker 11: Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Carmeal I guess

816
00:40:55,120 --> 00:40:58,240
Speaker 11: when we consider that the timing here, the slight delay

817
00:40:58,360 --> 00:41:00,760
Speaker 11: on the behalf of the Israeli government, was that mostly

818
00:41:00,840 --> 00:41:04,000
Speaker 11: just because of domestic political pressure. Was there really a

819
00:41:04,120 --> 00:41:07,680
Speaker 11: chance this wasn't actually going to be agreed to?

820
00:41:09,160 --> 00:41:09,399
Speaker 5: Yeah.

821
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,280
Speaker 3: I think it's important to remember as these agreements are unfolding,

822
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:16,440
Speaker 3: and of course we've been watching for fifteen months as.

823
00:41:16,440 --> 00:41:18,600
Speaker 5: We've approached ceasefire agreements.

824
00:41:18,800 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 3: You know, one went into play, others have fallen apart,

825
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,480
Speaker 3: just how fragile these deals are, but very much is

826
00:41:24,560 --> 00:41:28,880
Speaker 3: rarely politics came into play as Natagna, who was looking

827
00:41:29,360 --> 00:41:30,840
Speaker 3: at what he would have to do to hold his

828
00:41:30,920 --> 00:41:34,520
Speaker 3: coalition together if he did move forward with the ceasefire agreement,

829
00:41:34,560 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 3: and he ultimately made a decision that if he had

830
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 3: to choose between pressure from incoming President Donald Trump or

831
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 3: pressure from his far right flank, he was going to

832
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,399
Speaker 3: yield to that pressure from President Trump and really set

833
00:41:45,440 --> 00:41:47,919
Speaker 3: a tone for what their relationship is going to look

834
00:41:48,040 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 3: like once Trump returns to office.

835
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:54,520
Speaker 2: When we consider phase one here Carmeil and this six

836
00:41:54,680 --> 00:41:59,120
Speaker 2: week period of time, the six week truce, the deal

837
00:41:59,239 --> 00:42:04,120
Speaker 2: calls for extension essentially of the temporary cease fire if

838
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:07,480
Speaker 2: a full and permanent truce is not agreed on at

839
00:42:07,480 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 2: that point. How long could that keep rolling? Do you

840
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 2: suspect this will be figured out in that six week

841
00:42:13,160 --> 00:42:14,560
Speaker 2: time to have a permanent solution.

842
00:42:15,760 --> 00:42:19,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, for the US right now was very committed to

843
00:42:19,520 --> 00:42:22,239
Speaker 3: bringing an end to this conflict, for this ceasefire to

844
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,280
Speaker 3: be exactly as you say, permanent.

845
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 5: So of course it's being structured in three phases.

846
00:42:26,920 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 3: Each phase will whether or not the ceasefire is able

847
00:42:30,200 --> 00:42:33,640
Speaker 3: to be made permanent will depend on both Hamas and

848
00:42:33,920 --> 00:42:39,040
Speaker 3: Israel meeting their obligations under each phase. In Israel and

849
00:42:39,120 --> 00:42:41,760
Speaker 3: frankly also for Hamas, the politics of this.

850
00:42:41,680 --> 00:42:42,880
Speaker 5: Are very difficult.

851
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:45,640
Speaker 3: Part of the reason it was so difficult for Natyahu

852
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:48,080
Speaker 3: to say yes is that, of course he had promised

853
00:42:48,360 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 3: to completely eliminate Hamas, not just eliminate Hamas from power,

854
00:42:52,640 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 3: not just deplete Hamas's military, but eliminate them altogether. In

855
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 3: that hasn't happened, and so one of the key concerns

856
00:42:59,040 --> 00:43:02,160
Speaker 3: for Israeli is especially on the right, is that Hamas

857
00:43:02,200 --> 00:43:05,080
Speaker 3: could return to power, and for others it's this concern

858
00:43:05,120 --> 00:43:08,759
Speaker 3: that there is no clear path forward for governance in

859
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:11,680
Speaker 3: the Gaza Strip and so it's very hard to see

860
00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:13,640
Speaker 3: how this becomes permanent.

861
00:43:13,360 --> 00:43:15,799
Speaker 5: Or when it does, what that actually looks like.

862
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:20,080
Speaker 11: Well, and Carmil, I'm glad you raised this notion that

863
00:43:20,160 --> 00:43:22,839
Speaker 11: Israel had said from the get go its objective here

864
00:43:22,920 --> 00:43:25,439
Speaker 11: was the elimination of Hamas, because just earlier this week,

865
00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:28,960
Speaker 11: when he was speaking at the Atlantic Council, a Secretary

866
00:43:28,960 --> 00:43:31,920
Speaker 11: of State, outgoing Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln had this

867
00:43:32,080 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 11: to say about what he described as potentially perpetual war.

868
00:43:35,400 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 14: Let's listen, each time Israel completes its military operations and

869
00:43:39,400 --> 00:43:44,399
Speaker 14: pulls back Hamas, militants regroup and re emerge because there's

870
00:43:44,400 --> 00:43:45,960
Speaker 14: nothing else to fill the void.

871
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:48,399
Speaker 2: Indeed, we assess.

872
00:43:48,080 --> 00:43:51,319
Speaker 14: That Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as

873
00:43:51,320 --> 00:43:54,640
Speaker 14: it is lost. That is a recipe for an enduring

874
00:43:54,680 --> 00:43:57,120
Speaker 14: insurgency and perpetual war.

875
00:43:58,719 --> 00:44:01,920
Speaker 11: So, Carmil, what realists could fill the void to prevent

876
00:44:02,000 --> 00:44:03,319
Speaker 11: an enduring insurgency?

877
00:44:04,440 --> 00:44:07,320
Speaker 5: Yeah, this is really the question of the hour.

878
00:44:08,239 --> 00:44:10,880
Speaker 3: As we move into again, as we said, a ceasefire

879
00:44:10,960 --> 00:44:13,320
Speaker 3: and then what will hopefully be an end to this conflict.

880
00:44:13,560 --> 00:44:16,840
Speaker 3: The Palestinian authority continues to reassert that it is ready

881
00:44:16,920 --> 00:44:20,200
Speaker 3: able and willing to take this on. The Israeli government

882
00:44:20,320 --> 00:44:23,239
Speaker 3: is opposed to that, but hasn't put forward an alternative.

883
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 3: The far right in Israel would like to see Israel

884
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:29,040
Speaker 3: maintain a presence in the Gaza Strip, both militarily and

885
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:31,960
Speaker 3: through settlements, but Natagnell, who has also said that he's

886
00:44:32,000 --> 00:44:34,200
Speaker 3: not willing to do that. And so what you have

887
00:44:34,400 --> 00:44:37,960
Speaker 3: is the potential for power vacuum that could lead to

888
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:42,000
Speaker 3: chaos and again the reemergence of Hamas or frankly other

889
00:44:42,480 --> 00:44:45,040
Speaker 3: more extremist groups within the Gaza Strip.

890
00:44:46,560 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 2: There's been a lot of comparisons Torontald Reagan and the

891
00:44:49,719 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 2: release of the Iranian hostages coinciding with the inaugural What

892
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:55,600
Speaker 2: are these optics going to look like when the first

893
00:44:55,640 --> 00:44:57,960
Speaker 2: hostages are released or so, I.

894
00:44:57,960 --> 00:45:00,720
Speaker 3: Think it's important to just know the high usage agreement

895
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:04,160
Speaker 3: that was reached, as Biden has said repeatedly, was the

896
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,719
Speaker 3: agreement that the Biden administration put forward in May.

897
00:45:07,400 --> 00:45:10,279
Speaker 5: What has changed is, of course, the politics.

898
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:13,400
Speaker 3: The dynamics on the ground, Israel's feeling that it has

899
00:45:13,719 --> 00:45:17,560
Speaker 3: at least cleared out or retained some control over land

900
00:45:17,600 --> 00:45:20,760
Speaker 3: that it can kind of address some of these issues.

901
00:45:22,000 --> 00:45:24,840
Speaker 5: So you know, This has really been a triumph I

902
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:26,520
Speaker 5: would say of bipartisanship.

903
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:30,239
Speaker 3: We saw the Biden administration lay the groundwork, do the

904
00:45:30,280 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 3: work that was necessary to make this possible, and then

905
00:45:32,680 --> 00:45:35,960
Speaker 3: work in close partnership with the Trump administration to bring

906
00:45:36,000 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 3: it over the edge. So I think that the Trump administration,

907
00:45:38,440 --> 00:45:40,240
Speaker 3: of course is going to be declaring victory.

908
00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:42,480
Speaker 5: This is a great note for them to be.

909
00:45:42,480 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 3: Coming into Washington this coming weekend, but at the same

910
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:53,399
Speaker 3: time really shows what continuity and cooperation can yield well.

911
00:45:53,440 --> 00:45:56,279
Speaker 11: And when we consider the Trump administration and what they

912
00:45:56,280 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 11: will now be dealing with in the Middle East as

913
00:45:58,760 --> 00:46:02,960
Speaker 11: a result of this breakthrough and what caused the breakthrough, Carmeil,

914
00:46:03,080 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 11: how much easier of a time potentially will they have

915
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:10,040
Speaker 11: navigating the relationship with Iran, which through its proxies, has

916
00:46:10,040 --> 00:46:11,120
Speaker 11: been itself weakened.

917
00:46:12,120 --> 00:46:14,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean that's certainly part of the conditions that

918
00:46:14,480 --> 00:46:17,239
Speaker 3: have made this agreement possible in this moment is the

919
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 3: weakening of both Iran and its proxies.

920
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:21,279
Speaker 5: So the Trump administration will benefit from that.

921
00:46:21,719 --> 00:46:24,520
Speaker 3: Their ambitions, of course, are still set on a larger

922
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,160
Speaker 3: regional agreement that includes the Saudis, and they're going to

923
00:46:27,200 --> 00:46:29,480
Speaker 3: work to pursue that and are well positioned to do so.

924
00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,120
Speaker 3: I would note that doesn't mean this will not be

925
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,799
Speaker 3: without its challenges, of course. You know, as we talked

926
00:46:34,800 --> 00:46:37,560
Speaker 3: about making sure that each stage is actually reached. There

927
00:46:37,560 --> 00:46:41,120
Speaker 3: are Israel released today the first list of palest named

928
00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:44,520
Speaker 3: prisoners that it's going to allow to be released as

929
00:46:44,560 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 3: part of the exchange with hostages.

930
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:48,239
Speaker 5: Whether or not Hamas actually produces all of.

931
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:51,279
Speaker 3: The hostages, how many are alive, and so forth, the

932
00:46:51,360 --> 00:46:54,279
Speaker 3: details here are going to still be tricky for this administration,

933
00:46:54,560 --> 00:46:56,760
Speaker 3: and I would expect there will still be friction points

934
00:46:56,800 --> 00:47:00,520
Speaker 3: between Trump and Natagne who and Trump in regional partners,

935
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:02,799
Speaker 3: so it will not be smooth sailing from here.

936
00:47:03,920 --> 00:47:06,200
Speaker 2: We actually have a sense that, more specifically Carimel, what

937
00:47:06,239 --> 00:47:08,040
Speaker 2: this exchange is going to look like. Are we going

938
00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:13,160
Speaker 2: to see a meeting at a crossing with Gaza? Are

939
00:47:13,160 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 2: they going to be on an airport tarmac? How's this

940
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:16,840
Speaker 2: going to roll?

941
00:47:17,040 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 5: Yeah?

942
00:47:17,320 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 3: So Israel spent today setting up essentially centers in three

943
00:47:22,760 --> 00:47:26,600
Speaker 3: different border points to receive the hostages. So I would

944
00:47:26,640 --> 00:47:29,920
Speaker 3: expect optics very similar from the Israeli side of the

945
00:47:29,960 --> 00:47:34,040
Speaker 3: ceasefire agreement that was first reached where you see, you know,

946
00:47:34,120 --> 00:47:37,279
Speaker 3: kind of trucks going in picking up the hostages, reunions

947
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 3: with families and so forth. In the past they haven't

948
00:47:40,640 --> 00:47:43,840
Speaker 3: allowed the release of pals and and prisoners to be filmed,

949
00:47:43,840 --> 00:47:46,239
Speaker 3: and they will of course be distributed to different places.

950
00:47:46,440 --> 00:47:48,600
Speaker 3: Some will go back to Gaza, others to the West Bank,

951
00:47:49,160 --> 00:47:51,440
Speaker 3: and then there is talk of those who may be deported.

952
00:47:51,680 --> 00:47:54,280
Speaker 3: So I don't expect the TV optics to be quite

953
00:47:54,320 --> 00:47:55,040
Speaker 3: as kind of.

954
00:47:55,000 --> 00:47:57,840
Speaker 5: Grand around that, but you will see receptions.

955
00:47:57,239 --> 00:48:00,720
Speaker 3: Back into communities, families being reunited on both sides.

956
00:48:00,760 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 5: I would expect it's going to be very.

957
00:48:02,440 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 2: Very emotional, really interesting. That's the real stuff from Carmel

958
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 2: Arbit Carmel, thank you so much. As always, Atlantic Council

959
00:48:08,719 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 2: Senior Fellow for Middle East Programs Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative.

960
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,680
Speaker 2: We always learned something when we talk to Carmel. We've

961
00:48:16,680 --> 00:48:19,040
Speaker 2: got some big days coming up here in political history.

962
00:48:19,040 --> 00:48:22,600
Speaker 2: It's not just the inaugural, it's the release of hostages overseas, yeah.

963
00:48:22,480 --> 00:48:26,080
Speaker 11: Which could happen just before the inaugural on Sunday. Sunday

964
00:48:26,120 --> 00:48:29,120
Speaker 11: also being the TikTok deadline, which we've had development on

965
00:48:29,680 --> 00:48:31,880
Speaker 11: today after the Supreme Court decision. It's a lot to

966
00:48:31,880 --> 00:48:34,200
Speaker 11: cover here in Washington, and it's only just beginning as

967
00:48:34,200 --> 00:48:36,520
Speaker 11: the new administration comes in, so we'll have to come

968
00:48:36,560 --> 00:48:37,319
Speaker 11: back with more five.

969
00:48:37,560 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 2: I think we'll have a lot to talk about. Rick

970
00:48:39,600 --> 00:48:41,480
Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Shanzana will be with us. I hope

971
00:48:41,520 --> 00:48:44,160
Speaker 2: you will be too, five pm Eastern right here on Bloomberg.

972
00:48:48,280 --> 00:48:51,480
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

973
00:48:51,520 --> 00:48:54,600
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify, or

974
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,279
Speaker 2: wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find us

975
00:48:57,360 --> 00:49:00,879
Speaker 2: live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern at

976
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:02,080
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot com.