1
00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,800
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene Jai Ley.

2
00:00:13,960 --> 00:00:17,560
Speaker 1: We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

3
00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:23,520
Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

4
00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:33,720
Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot com, and of course, on the Bloomberg. Joining

5
00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:36,200
Speaker 1: us now is Michael Purvis Whiting and co chief global

6
00:00:36,240 --> 00:00:39,760
Speaker 1: strategist and head of equity Derivatives, Michael GOODMANNY. She said,

7
00:00:39,800 --> 00:00:42,559
Speaker 1: it doesn't sound like two countries gunning for a trade war,

8
00:00:42,680 --> 00:00:45,199
Speaker 1: does it not at all? I mean, it is a

9
00:00:45,479 --> 00:00:48,920
Speaker 1: it's a curious uh think of for for Trump to

10
00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:51,640
Speaker 1: be offering up if he wants to, you know, reduce

11
00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:55,720
Speaker 1: the trade war uh clouds and have them paid from

12
00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,880
Speaker 1: the horizon. Uh. I think just you know, given how

13
00:00:58,920 --> 00:01:02,080
Speaker 1: sensitive that that company has been from a national security

14
00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:04,200
Speaker 1: point of view. UM. But certainly you know, when you

15
00:01:04,200 --> 00:01:06,280
Speaker 1: when when you see you know, manum is going to

16
00:01:06,360 --> 00:01:09,800
Speaker 1: be uh uh you know, hanging out with the Vice

17
00:01:09,800 --> 00:01:12,240
Speaker 1: Premier of China and all that, it does look like,

18
00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:14,760
Speaker 1: you know, sort of a budding romance, if you will,

19
00:01:15,040 --> 00:01:20,440
Speaker 1: UM between these two countries. And that's obviously very you

20
00:01:20,480 --> 00:01:22,679
Speaker 1: know that that's one less worry factor for the markets.

21
00:01:22,840 --> 00:01:24,120
Speaker 1: We all saw the tweet from the President of the

22
00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:26,760
Speaker 1: United States, Presidency of China and I are working together

23
00:01:26,800 --> 00:01:30,720
Speaker 1: to give massive Chinese phone company ZTE away to get

24
00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:33,880
Speaker 1: back into business fast. Too many jobs in China lost.

25
00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:38,000
Speaker 1: Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done. Still

26
00:01:38,040 --> 00:01:40,679
Speaker 1: trying to work out what gets it done means. As

27
00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:43,480
Speaker 1: you say, Michael, this is a company that has been

28
00:01:43,520 --> 00:01:47,200
Speaker 1: a national security issue that the Republicans themselves were quite

29
00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:50,200
Speaker 1: firm with President Obama and his administration for not doing

30
00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,280
Speaker 1: enough around this company, and now it seems like it's

31
00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:57,320
Speaker 1: a a bargaining chip at a broader issue, right. Uh,

32
00:01:57,680 --> 00:02:00,360
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's uh, you know, weaving its specific

33
00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:04,240
Speaker 1: corporate situations into foreign policies always is always a tricky

34
00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,600
Speaker 1: path there, but but this one especially so given you know,

35
00:02:07,720 --> 00:02:10,160
Speaker 1: it will be interesting to see how how the more

36
00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:12,840
Speaker 1: mainstream Republicans you know, react to that, let alone the

37
00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,360
Speaker 1: Democrats waking up this morning to kind of strip out

38
00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:18,400
Speaker 1: the nuances of z T and what's happening with various

39
00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:21,200
Speaker 1: companies and how transactional this seems to be. You'd have

40
00:02:21,240 --> 00:02:22,880
Speaker 1: to say, Michael, if this was your key risk for

41
00:02:22,919 --> 00:02:25,040
Speaker 1: twent and the idea that a trade war was going

42
00:02:25,080 --> 00:02:27,880
Speaker 1: to one fall between China and the United States. These

43
00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:30,760
Speaker 1: headlines are somewhat bullish, on't they. Yeah, yeah, yeah, as

44
00:02:30,800 --> 00:02:33,359
Speaker 1: as we're talking about it's it's it's one less sort

45
00:02:33,400 --> 00:02:36,640
Speaker 1: of risk to U to worry about. I I personally

46
00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:40,079
Speaker 1: was never looked at the trade wars as being um

47
00:02:40,120 --> 00:02:43,799
Speaker 1: and I'm not sure anyone really did as being you know, um,

48
00:02:43,919 --> 00:02:47,160
Speaker 1: the the most dominant or or most palpable risk for

49
00:02:47,240 --> 00:02:50,839
Speaker 1: the markets this year. Certainly obviously something to be monitoring there.

50
00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:52,799
Speaker 1: But you know, I think in the back of a

51
00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:55,000
Speaker 1: lot of people's minds, people thought it would be a

52
00:02:55,000 --> 00:02:57,440
Speaker 1: lot of a lot of bark and probably a lot

53
00:02:57,520 --> 00:02:59,600
Speaker 1: less bite as you got in down into the granular

54
00:02:59,639 --> 00:03:02,200
Speaker 1: details and and but you know, with this news breaking

55
00:03:02,240 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 1: up with the weekend, it certainly seems um, perhaps even

56
00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:09,040
Speaker 1: a less so. Yes, Michael Purvis with us with Weeden

57
00:03:09,280 --> 00:03:13,600
Speaker 1: is well, Michael, I literally named vix charts Purvous charts.

58
00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:17,240
Speaker 1: You are a great student of the vix. What is

59
00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:21,760
Speaker 1: the distinctive feature of a VIX twenty two to thirteen

60
00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:25,680
Speaker 1: this time around? Is it correlated to equities? That's the

61
00:03:25,760 --> 00:03:30,000
Speaker 1: spot The present vix versus future vixes. What's the pro

62
00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:33,880
Speaker 1: nuance in this move? I think what's really defined the

63
00:03:34,000 --> 00:03:37,880
Speaker 1: vix UH over the last several weeks um is how

64
00:03:37,920 --> 00:03:40,839
Speaker 1: it has been behaving relative to the other vixes TOM.

65
00:03:40,880 --> 00:03:43,360
Speaker 1: In other words, there's a VIX for the Russell two thousand,

66
00:03:43,440 --> 00:03:46,560
Speaker 1: the small caps, there's a VIX for eurostocks. There's the

67
00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:51,600
Speaker 1: VIX right, there's always the Pharaoh vix UH. There there's

68
00:03:51,640 --> 00:03:54,800
Speaker 1: also you know a bunch of alatility metrics across assets.

69
00:03:54,800 --> 00:03:56,760
Speaker 1: There's a VIX for the nd X, which is really

70
00:03:56,840 --> 00:03:59,560
Speaker 1: kind of tracks the UH, much more sensitive to the

71
00:03:59,720 --> 00:04:03,320
Speaker 1: the big tech companies. And what I find fascinating right

72
00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:05,880
Speaker 1: now is that if you look at typically the VIX

73
00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:08,600
Speaker 1: trades at a discount to most of these other vixes,

74
00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,080
Speaker 1: But if you look at it recently, it's actually trading.

75
00:04:11,120 --> 00:04:14,200
Speaker 1: It's been trading at a pretty consistent premium, or at

76
00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:17,320
Speaker 1: least at very historical levels relatively the other ones. The one,

77
00:04:17,640 --> 00:04:20,640
Speaker 1: the one other VIX that it's not trading at a

78
00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:23,520
Speaker 1: premium two is the what's called the v X and

79
00:04:23,600 --> 00:04:26,080
Speaker 1: or the VIX for the nd X. And what that

80
00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:29,960
Speaker 1: is telling me is that this you know, higher NIX

81
00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:33,240
Speaker 1: range is really not about It's really not about you know,

82
00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:37,839
Speaker 1: um interest rates, uh, you know, spiraling ever higher. Um.

83
00:04:37,880 --> 00:04:40,840
Speaker 1: It's really about what happened, um, you know back with

84
00:04:41,480 --> 00:04:46,960
Speaker 1: this this Facebook uh Cambridge analytical scandal several weeks back,

85
00:04:47,400 --> 00:04:50,000
Speaker 1: and whether the markets were going to re rate Facebook

86
00:04:50,040 --> 00:04:52,320
Speaker 1: and its peers and Fang and for the matter in

87
00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,560
Speaker 1: tech lower there. And that's why, you know, the two

88
00:04:55,680 --> 00:04:57,960
Speaker 1: big outperformers from the ballside have been the VIX and

89
00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,000
Speaker 1: this and this and this VIX for the NDA. I

90
00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:04,000
Speaker 1: think that's what you're seeing is is that those clouds

91
00:05:04,000 --> 00:05:06,440
Speaker 1: are fading and that's allowing the VIX to you know.

92
00:05:06,600 --> 00:05:09,880
Speaker 1: So this is a really interesting point. So we had

93
00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:13,080
Speaker 1: the VOLE blow up of February where these short volatility

94
00:05:13,080 --> 00:05:16,920
Speaker 1: products completely failed and a lot of people said, we're

95
00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,080
Speaker 1: moving into a regime of higher volatility. We couldn't possibly

96
00:05:20,160 --> 00:05:23,720
Speaker 1: go back to because what was going to happen to

97
00:05:23,880 --> 00:05:26,559
Speaker 1: the world was gonna end. We couldn't possibly go back

98
00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,800
Speaker 1: to the VOLE levels of seventeen. But if the question is,

99
00:05:31,120 --> 00:05:33,120
Speaker 1: and the premise, your premise right now is that this

100
00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:36,080
Speaker 1: was a text story, then I'll ask the question again,

101
00:05:36,200 --> 00:05:40,320
Speaker 1: can we go back to the lower volatility range. I

102
00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:45,760
Speaker 1: think I think it is a look, two thousand seventeen

103
00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:49,440
Speaker 1: was distinguished by having the lowest realized volatility on in

104
00:05:49,560 --> 00:05:53,520
Speaker 1: decades um uh and and and and more vixed nine

105
00:05:53,560 --> 00:05:56,200
Speaker 1: prints than any other year in the in the in

106
00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,280
Speaker 1: the vix's history, we even had a few ticks below

107
00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:02,360
Speaker 1: nine and le January getting back to those levels I

108
00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:04,880
Speaker 1: think is a real push if for nowhere the reason

109
00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,680
Speaker 1: that we do have higher interest rates, and you can't

110
00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,040
Speaker 1: be dismissed of higher interest rates in the volatility story.

111
00:06:10,080 --> 00:06:11,960
Speaker 1: I just think that what's dominant right now is the

112
00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:16,760
Speaker 1: tech the tech situation there. But um uh, you know,

113
00:06:16,920 --> 00:06:21,359
Speaker 1: if we could we see twelves and thirteens, absolutely, and

114
00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:24,880
Speaker 1: I mean we we are the christ on Friday and

115
00:06:24,880 --> 00:06:26,800
Speaker 1: and and so, could we see a lot more of

116
00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,360
Speaker 1: this sort of let's call it, you know, eleven twelve

117
00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:32,839
Speaker 1: to fifteen rather than sort of fifteen to twenty going forward? Yeah,

118
00:06:32,839 --> 00:06:34,760
Speaker 1: I mean I think that's really a function of whether

119
00:06:34,800 --> 00:06:38,680
Speaker 1: that ultimately, whether that tech dip gets bought that the

120
00:06:38,680 --> 00:06:42,560
Speaker 1: the you know, if if I've been arguing time that

121
00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:48,279
Speaker 1: that so goes tech uh particularly fang so goes the

122
00:06:48,279 --> 00:06:51,600
Speaker 1: the SPX and so goes the vix. It's incredibly it's

123
00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:55,920
Speaker 1: it's become absolutely integrated into overall US equity story. As

124
00:06:55,960 --> 00:06:58,520
Speaker 1: a strategy standpoint, where do you make up oil seventies

125
00:06:58,560 --> 00:07:02,560
Speaker 1: six sixty brand up to seventy thirty nine in two

126
00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:06,320
Speaker 1: cups of coffee this morning? Obviously, the backdrop here out

127
00:07:06,320 --> 00:07:08,880
Speaker 1: on the social feed, in the various news agencies is

128
00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,480
Speaker 1: what's going on in Gaza. I've got seven Palestinians killed,

129
00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:17,120
Speaker 1: Nine Palestinians killed according to CNN International, Reuters has ten.

130
00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,280
Speaker 1: Even in folks, I'm very unsure what that number is.

131
00:07:20,320 --> 00:07:23,360
Speaker 1: That's just what we're seeing within the feed right now.

132
00:07:23,800 --> 00:07:26,200
Speaker 1: There's geo political risk out there. Do you have a

133
00:07:26,240 --> 00:07:29,040
Speaker 1: point in your head where a certain Brent price or

134
00:07:29,080 --> 00:07:33,240
Speaker 1: West Texas Intermediate price gets Michael Purvis's attention. Well, I

135
00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:35,680
Speaker 1: think the move that we're we've all been looking for,

136
00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:38,520
Speaker 1: and even if some of this Middle East headlines were

137
00:07:38,520 --> 00:07:43,000
Speaker 1: not there, uh, particularly you know, the Gaza headlines, I

138
00:07:43,000 --> 00:07:47,040
Speaker 1: think people sort of feel that there's enough momentum right now.

139
00:07:48,440 --> 00:07:51,120
Speaker 1: Take out seventy that paint that paints a path towards

140
00:07:51,120 --> 00:07:53,600
Speaker 1: eighty pretty well. I know there's a lot of calls

141
00:07:53,600 --> 00:07:55,440
Speaker 1: out there for a hundred And I'm not an oil

142
00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,600
Speaker 1: expert by any stretch, but I would say that that, um,

143
00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:01,720
Speaker 1: I think, you know, getting above eight on w T

144
00:08:01,880 --> 00:08:04,440
Speaker 1: I does seem like that's a lot of work to do.

145
00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:07,800
Speaker 1: You're gonna need something more than just some Gaza headlines

146
00:08:08,480 --> 00:08:11,040
Speaker 1: and iron um to get there. There's a lot of

147
00:08:11,280 --> 00:08:14,600
Speaker 1: technical resistance at the eighty dollar level there. But but look,

148
00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:16,640
Speaker 1: you know, I mean it's still striking. Is that we're

149
00:08:16,640 --> 00:08:19,160
Speaker 1: talking about, you know, seventy crude? Right? I mean he

150
00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:21,360
Speaker 1: would have guessed, you know, six months ago, nine months ago,

151
00:08:21,520 --> 00:08:23,560
Speaker 1: very few people are out there on that. You know,

152
00:08:23,680 --> 00:08:26,640
Speaker 1: twenty six dollars was not that long ago. This is great.

153
00:08:26,720 --> 00:08:30,880
Speaker 1: Courier dude showed up today. Michael Purvis showed up. Did

154
00:08:30,880 --> 00:08:33,959
Speaker 1: you ride a bicycle and in the ring? I did?

155
00:08:34,000 --> 00:08:35,640
Speaker 1: I bike as much as I can. You like, live

156
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:40,880
Speaker 1: two blocks away, so it's it's the fastest way to

157
00:08:40,920 --> 00:08:47,280
Speaker 1: get around. Thank you, Michael, Chief global strategist and head

158
00:08:47,280 --> 00:08:49,760
Speaker 1: of Equity Derivatives to Package and I got to get

159
00:08:49,760 --> 00:09:05,160
Speaker 1: over near the Hilt Motel. We're gonna do a couple

160
00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,439
Speaker 1: of themes here. Isaac Wiltanski with us with a compass

161
00:09:08,480 --> 00:09:11,240
Speaker 1: point really did dive into just sort of the news

162
00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:15,160
Speaker 1: flow of the week. Isaac um. A really really strong

163
00:09:15,240 --> 00:09:18,200
Speaker 1: supporter of my work well over a decade has been

164
00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:21,640
Speaker 1: Richard Clarada, who is going to be upfront and the

165
00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:25,720
Speaker 1: beauty contest tomorrow morning for the Senate Banking Committee to

166
00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:29,920
Speaker 1: replace Stanley Fisher as the PhD type is Vice Chairman

167
00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:33,400
Speaker 1: of the Fed. Dr Clarata, folks I've always associated with

168
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:38,959
Speaker 1: Columbia University, has written definitive work on dynamics stochastic general

169
00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:41,520
Speaker 1: equilibrium theory. There'll be a quiz at the end of

170
00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:47,560
Speaker 1: this UH section as well, Isaac, Isaac, so we don't

171
00:09:47,600 --> 00:09:50,920
Speaker 1: do DSGE theory on a Monday morning. Who is Richard

172
00:09:50,960 --> 00:09:55,080
Speaker 1: Clarida and why will you lean forward during his testimony tomorrow?

173
00:09:57,040 --> 00:10:00,600
Speaker 1: I think Richard Clarida is going to be c as

174
00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:07,000
Speaker 1: UH the center of economic hat on the Federal Reserve

175
00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:12,080
Speaker 1: Board under President Donald Trump, and one of the viewpoints

176
00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:15,520
Speaker 1: here in d C has been that Chairman Powell is

177
00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:19,640
Speaker 1: more of a has more markets experience and not as

178
00:10:19,800 --> 00:10:23,840
Speaker 1: much economic background, and so the Trump white House was

179
00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:28,400
Speaker 1: clearly and I think undeniably looking for someone to sit

180
00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,600
Speaker 1: in that vice chairman's role that number two spots, who

181
00:10:31,640 --> 00:10:34,600
Speaker 1: has written papers like the one that you just discussed,

182
00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:38,679
Speaker 1: and who can delve deeply with the staff there on

183
00:10:38,760 --> 00:10:42,240
Speaker 1: economic theory. And so I think the hearing tomorrow, which

184
00:10:42,240 --> 00:10:46,920
Speaker 1: will actually include um both Richard Clarada and Michelle Bowman,

185
00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:50,200
Speaker 1: who is also nominated to the board. She's nominated for

186
00:10:50,240 --> 00:10:54,679
Speaker 1: a spot that's reserved for someone with community banking expertise.

187
00:10:55,200 --> 00:10:57,320
Speaker 1: I think that the focus is going to be on

188
00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:01,120
Speaker 1: Mr Clarada because he is seen as one of these

189
00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:05,720
Speaker 1: pillars of economic thought for the for the Powell Federal Reserve, Isaaca,

190
00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:06,959
Speaker 1: I have to say, out of all the things that

191
00:11:07,000 --> 00:11:10,080
Speaker 1: we've wasted our time talking about since November twenty sixteen,

192
00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:13,280
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve under this administration is one of them.

193
00:11:13,280 --> 00:11:17,920
Speaker 1: I lost count of how many economists were worried about

194
00:11:17,960 --> 00:11:21,199
Speaker 1: the replacements filling the seats on the Federal Reserve that

195
00:11:21,240 --> 00:11:24,400
Speaker 1: would be nominated by this administration when actually looking back

196
00:11:24,480 --> 00:11:29,200
Speaker 1: on it, they've been really mainstream candidates. This administrations has

197
00:11:29,280 --> 00:11:32,360
Speaker 1: filled the empty seats at the Federal Reserve with some

198
00:11:32,559 --> 00:11:37,600
Speaker 1: with some fantastic names, nothing controversial about it. I think

199
00:11:37,640 --> 00:11:39,559
Speaker 1: you hit the nail on the head there. Look this

200
00:11:39,559 --> 00:11:41,920
Speaker 1: this Federal Reserve Board, at least the members that we

201
00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:46,720
Speaker 1: have so far are centrists and pragmatists. Now, part of

202
00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,200
Speaker 1: that is the realization that it is hard to get

203
00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:53,200
Speaker 1: someone through the Senate. Still, the average length of confirming

204
00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:57,599
Speaker 1: someone for those individuals who are lucky enough to be confirmed,

205
00:11:58,080 --> 00:12:01,280
Speaker 1: is about eighty or so days right now in the U. S. Senate.

206
00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:03,720
Speaker 1: And that's the longest at least out of that I've

207
00:12:03,720 --> 00:12:07,400
Speaker 1: counted out of the past five administrations. So it takes

208
00:12:07,440 --> 00:12:10,640
Speaker 1: a considerable amount time. And so part of that is

209
00:12:10,640 --> 00:12:12,800
Speaker 1: is the realities of the Senate. But I think part

210
00:12:12,840 --> 00:12:17,920
Speaker 1: of it is the Trump administration's acceptance of the importance

211
00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,600
Speaker 1: of the economy within their broader storyline. And you can't

212
00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:24,319
Speaker 1: mess around with the frind if the economy is going

213
00:12:24,360 --> 00:12:27,280
Speaker 1: to be part of your your political storyline, if you're

214
00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,160
Speaker 1: just joining us. I Boltansky with his compass point out

215
00:12:30,160 --> 00:12:32,720
Speaker 1: of Ohio, Wesley and a really good feeling for the

216
00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:37,600
Speaker 1: nitte gritte of Washington, d C Isaac, John Swann, er uh,

217
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:39,720
Speaker 1: Mike Allen, I can't remember who wrote it, talked about

218
00:12:39,720 --> 00:12:43,600
Speaker 1: the exhaustion and the few members of the Trump team

219
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,800
Speaker 1: on trade that's not only China, China, China, like we

220
00:12:46,840 --> 00:12:50,040
Speaker 1: haven't the headlines this morning, but also NAFTA as well.

221
00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:56,680
Speaker 1: How thinly staffed is the Trump trade team. I think

222
00:12:57,040 --> 00:12:59,120
Speaker 1: it's something that I've noticed over the past few months.

223
00:12:59,120 --> 00:13:02,319
Speaker 1: When you walk around own some of these buildings, whether

224
00:13:02,320 --> 00:13:05,240
Speaker 1: it's a Commerce department or the Treasury or any of

225
00:13:05,280 --> 00:13:08,120
Speaker 1: the other major agency, you see that there are a

226
00:13:08,160 --> 00:13:12,400
Speaker 1: lot of empty offices, and that has a toll. And

227
00:13:12,480 --> 00:13:16,400
Speaker 1: the US, especially on trade, is facing battles on a

228
00:13:16,480 --> 00:13:20,200
Speaker 1: number of fronts, and these battles take up hundreds and

229
00:13:20,280 --> 00:13:24,559
Speaker 1: thousands of pages of paper. Yeah, I mean you did interrupt,

230
00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:27,559
Speaker 1: but just because of time. How does Canada in Mexico

231
00:13:27,600 --> 00:13:32,800
Speaker 1: adapt to the facts we have an exhausted NAFTA team. Well,

232
00:13:32,840 --> 00:13:37,800
Speaker 1: I think the positive here is the deadline, albeit a

233
00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,600
Speaker 1: somewhat squishy deadline on May seventeenth to get a NAPTA

234
00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:47,600
Speaker 1: deal announcement. Look, deadlines are are able to catalyze action

235
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,280
Speaker 1: in DC more so than anything else. So yes, the

236
00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:53,199
Speaker 1: NAFTA team is tired, but I think speaker Ryan say,

237
00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:56,680
Speaker 1: it's setting a quasi deadline of May seventeenth for a

238
00:13:56,679 --> 00:14:00,360
Speaker 1: deal announcement. NAFTA it's going to catalyze movement here decay,

239
00:14:00,520 --> 00:14:03,160
Speaker 1: and this of course needs to happen. The deadlines need

240
00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:07,120
Speaker 1: to be hit in and thereabouts because the midterms are

241
00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,280
Speaker 1: coming up, Isaac, so they need to deal before that.

242
00:14:09,280 --> 00:14:12,000
Speaker 1: I want you to help sort of translate something for me.

243
00:14:12,040 --> 00:14:14,960
Speaker 1: The president's waiting. The following presidency of China and I

244
00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,559
Speaker 1: are working together to give massive Chinese phone company z

245
00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,160
Speaker 1: t E a way to get back into business fast.

246
00:14:20,160 --> 00:14:22,520
Speaker 1: Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been

247
00:14:22,520 --> 00:14:26,240
Speaker 1: instructed to get it done. Z t E. ISAAC was

248
00:14:26,280 --> 00:14:30,400
Speaker 1: a national security issue for good reasons. A blockade was

249
00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:32,920
Speaker 1: put on it. What does it mean when the President

250
00:14:32,960 --> 00:14:36,440
Speaker 1: turns around and says, I've instructed the Commerce Department to

251
00:14:36,600 --> 00:14:41,240
Speaker 1: get it done? What happens next? I think? I think

252
00:14:41,240 --> 00:14:43,280
Speaker 1: there's only one takeaway that you can have from the

253
00:14:43,360 --> 00:14:46,720
Speaker 1: President's tweeting that and that policy reversal. It's at the

254
00:14:46,800 --> 00:14:50,440
Speaker 1: president c z T is a bargaining chip in the

255
00:14:50,600 --> 00:14:54,560
Speaker 1: broader negotiation between China and the EU. Okay, Isaac, you're

256
00:14:54,600 --> 00:14:57,040
Speaker 1: expert on this. Can that happen? I don't have any

257
00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:59,880
Speaker 1: answer on this Monday morning. Granted, its news overnight is

258
00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:04,120
Speaker 1: essentially and over the weekend, can you use a sanctioned

259
00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:10,480
Speaker 1: international offender as a quote bargaining chip unquote. You know,

260
00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,800
Speaker 1: there's a saying that a law is only as strong

261
00:15:12,880 --> 00:15:15,800
Speaker 1: as the most recent congress, meaning that Congress can change

262
00:15:15,800 --> 00:15:19,800
Speaker 1: anything that a previous congress is done. A administrative action

263
00:15:19,960 --> 00:15:23,480
Speaker 1: is largely as strong as the most recent administration. And

264
00:15:23,520 --> 00:15:26,360
Speaker 1: so yes, I think that the President as of last night,

265
00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:29,320
Speaker 1: with that tweet, made it clear that ZTE is on

266
00:15:29,440 --> 00:15:31,400
Speaker 1: the table and it's going to be part of a

267
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,880
Speaker 1: negotiation between China and US as as trade talks continue.

268
00:15:35,040 --> 00:15:38,440
Speaker 1: So trade sulks resumed this week. The top Chinese economic

269
00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:41,320
Speaker 1: advisor to president she coming over to Washington, d c.

270
00:15:41,880 --> 00:15:45,160
Speaker 1: Isaac's attentions actually easing. Is that's what you're seeing and

271
00:15:45,760 --> 00:15:47,480
Speaker 1: what to what extent can we get a deal? And

272
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:51,440
Speaker 1: what does that deal look like. I think that both

273
00:15:51,480 --> 00:15:54,720
Speaker 1: sides realize that it is in their own best interest

274
00:15:54,800 --> 00:15:56,760
Speaker 1: to step back from the cliff, which is part of

275
00:15:56,800 --> 00:15:58,680
Speaker 1: the reason that I think they will step back from

276
00:15:58,680 --> 00:16:02,240
Speaker 1: the cliff. The more bargaining ships that we put on

277
00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,280
Speaker 1: the table, and it's clear that the President view z

278
00:16:04,440 --> 00:16:07,160
Speaker 1: t E as a bargaining ship, the more of those

279
00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:09,760
Speaker 1: that we have on the table, the easier it is

280
00:16:09,840 --> 00:16:13,960
Speaker 1: to craft a space saving deal that will at least

281
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,400
Speaker 1: get us back to the trade the tont that we

282
00:16:16,880 --> 00:16:20,680
Speaker 1: had only a few months ago. Isaac wouldn't find a

283
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:23,920
Speaker 1: question if we could. We're following Gaza, the news out

284
00:16:23,920 --> 00:16:26,320
Speaker 1: of Gaza, folks, I want to be very careful about

285
00:16:26,320 --> 00:16:28,480
Speaker 1: the news flow there. Michael Barr in New York and

286
00:16:28,520 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 1: our other team across the nation will have updates on

287
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:36,840
Speaker 1: that within minutes. But Isaac, the movement of the embassy

288
00:16:36,880 --> 00:16:40,840
Speaker 1: to Jerusalem, we had Michael Arnod of Israel on our

289
00:16:40,920 --> 00:16:43,480
Speaker 1: our head of all of our Israel and Palestinian coverage.

290
00:16:43,720 --> 00:16:46,520
Speaker 1: He was great. How does this play in the Beltway?

291
00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:50,560
Speaker 1: How does the move of this embassy play in your

292
00:16:50,600 --> 00:16:56,200
Speaker 1: Washington Beltway? You know, it's difficult to tell at the moment,

293
00:16:56,640 --> 00:16:59,720
Speaker 1: especially given the headlines that we're seeing cross and and

294
00:16:59,760 --> 00:17:01,720
Speaker 1: I want to be careful as well, but I can

295
00:17:01,760 --> 00:17:05,400
Speaker 1: tell you those policy experts that that I follow generally

296
00:17:05,520 --> 00:17:08,560
Speaker 1: view this is more of a symbolic move than a

297
00:17:08,680 --> 00:17:13,040
Speaker 1: substantive move. But as we know, in foreign affairs, symbolism matters,

298
00:17:13,320 --> 00:17:16,240
Speaker 1: and so um I think at the moment, everyone is

299
00:17:16,320 --> 00:17:19,400
Speaker 1: just watching to see what happens more so than anything else.

300
00:17:19,520 --> 00:17:22,640
Speaker 1: Isaac Boltansky thinking so much, great update? Why why Range?

301
00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:25,720
Speaker 1: Why did I'll get it out? John three to one?

302
00:17:26,280 --> 00:17:31,960
Speaker 1: Why did Ranging update? Very much? With compass point as well,

303
00:17:44,680 --> 00:17:47,720
Speaker 1: Stephen Roschuto with us, it was wonderful to have on.

304
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:52,480
Speaker 1: We're trying to slice in dice well the American consumer,

305
00:17:52,920 --> 00:17:58,160
Speaker 1: he is with miserable UH securities. UH. Their chief US

306
00:17:58,240 --> 00:18:01,520
Speaker 1: economists as well, like US, will start with inflation because

307
00:18:01,560 --> 00:18:05,359
Speaker 1: that's where President mr was as well. It's certainly not

308
00:18:05,560 --> 00:18:09,720
Speaker 1: runaway inflation. Is it really higher inflation? Well, I think

309
00:18:09,760 --> 00:18:13,040
Speaker 1: you've seen general upward drift and inflation. The question is

310
00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:16,120
Speaker 1: what's been the driving factor. I think the driving factor

311
00:18:16,320 --> 00:18:19,840
Speaker 1: was a sixteen month slide in the dollar that eliminated

312
00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:25,040
Speaker 1: some of the global deflationary pressures from dampening domestic price pressures.

313
00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,399
Speaker 1: And now I think the dollars turn corner and I

314
00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:30,439
Speaker 1: think the upward movement and the dollar will tend to

315
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:33,400
Speaker 1: moderate the inflation environment again, and I think that's gonna

316
00:18:33,400 --> 00:18:35,359
Speaker 1: be the big surprise for people. My question, Steve on

317
00:18:35,359 --> 00:18:39,640
Speaker 1: a Monday, is there's a certitude about three or four

318
00:18:39,760 --> 00:18:43,159
Speaker 1: rate increases and all my radar go up. When I

319
00:18:43,240 --> 00:18:45,920
Speaker 1: use the word, everybody's just certain they've got this all

320
00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:49,879
Speaker 1: figured out. We know it is a real risk factor.

321
00:18:50,080 --> 00:18:51,920
Speaker 1: I mean I was one of the first ones who

322
00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,119
Speaker 1: moved from two to four rate hikes, and to be

323
00:18:54,160 --> 00:18:55,600
Speaker 1: honest with you, I did it with the hope that

324
00:18:55,600 --> 00:18:58,919
Speaker 1: would eventually be the first one to move back from four. Uh.

325
00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:00,719
Speaker 1: And I continue to look for the data. And that's

326
00:19:00,720 --> 00:19:02,560
Speaker 1: why I think the retail sales numbers and the housing

327
00:19:02,640 --> 00:19:04,760
Speaker 1: numbers that we're gonna have out this week are very,

328
00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:07,560
Speaker 1: very critical in that environment. And I think dovetailing on

329
00:19:07,600 --> 00:19:10,200
Speaker 1: the backdrop of what we saw from benond inflation readings

330
00:19:10,600 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 1: last week, I think those factors could come in to

331
00:19:13,400 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: suggest that four may not be necessary. But for right now,

332
00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,760
Speaker 1: it's still our forecast. But we're looking for evidence that

333
00:19:19,800 --> 00:19:22,119
Speaker 1: we think will come through allows us to move it

334
00:19:22,160 --> 00:19:24,440
Speaker 1: back and step back from a four. Right hya that's

335
00:19:24,440 --> 00:19:26,479
Speaker 1: back on targets. Steve On They why do they need

336
00:19:26,520 --> 00:19:29,359
Speaker 1: to back off? Well, the question is how far do

337
00:19:29,400 --> 00:19:32,320
Speaker 1: you need to go before you cause something to go wrong? Um,

338
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:34,800
Speaker 1: the curve is flattening rather dramatically, and if you go

339
00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:37,280
Speaker 1: back and look at the last three long business cycles

340
00:19:37,640 --> 00:19:40,240
Speaker 1: the FED, and they've been long business cycles because inflation

341
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:43,440
Speaker 1: didn't manifest themselves, manifests itself. And this time through it's

342
00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:46,680
Speaker 1: exactly the same environment. And each time that they continued

343
00:19:46,760 --> 00:19:48,679
Speaker 1: to push the front end of the curve up, they

344
00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,320
Speaker 1: got into an environment where there was some kind of

345
00:19:50,320 --> 00:19:53,439
Speaker 1: financial hiccup which was unnecessary. And I think this is

346
00:19:53,440 --> 00:19:55,119
Speaker 1: one of the reasons why they should learn from the

347
00:19:55,200 --> 00:19:57,320
Speaker 1: lessons of three out of three, which is a very

348
00:19:57,400 --> 00:20:01,240
Speaker 1: very abnormal process in an economy to have three times

349
00:20:01,240 --> 00:20:03,919
Speaker 1: in a row the same thing developed. And I'm afraid

350
00:20:03,960 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 1: that if they continue to push for the four over time,

351
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:09,239
Speaker 1: that we'll get to a curve that will be so

352
00:20:09,320 --> 00:20:11,359
Speaker 1: flat that it will cause a financial hiccup to a car.

353
00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,720
Speaker 1: Do you think in the curve is artificial or it's

354
00:20:13,760 --> 00:20:16,320
Speaker 1: something to actually pay attention to? And from what I've heard,

355
00:20:16,359 --> 00:20:18,720
Speaker 1: so fine, you don't think it's official so artificial, So

356
00:20:18,760 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 1: why isn't it? I don't think it's artificial because the

357
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:24,320
Speaker 1: ft is unwinding, there's been a big uptick in supply.

358
00:20:24,720 --> 00:20:26,560
Speaker 1: A number of things that should have pushed the long

359
00:20:26,680 --> 00:20:29,560
Speaker 1: end of the curve up haven't. There's a global grab

360
00:20:29,680 --> 00:20:32,159
Speaker 1: for yield. There's a global glab grab for duration. We

361
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:34,840
Speaker 1: saw the announcement over the weekend of the large UK

362
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:38,639
Speaker 1: pension fund that's opted to move out into US treasuries

363
00:20:38,680 --> 00:20:41,520
Speaker 1: to grab the yield. Environment. On one of your own stories,

364
00:20:41,560 --> 00:20:44,080
Speaker 1: I saw recently that you had a one ninety yield

365
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 1: on Australian bonds zero precent real yields. I think that's

366
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,760
Speaker 1: the environment that's grabbing it. Step Shot so with us

367
00:20:50,760 --> 00:20:54,200
Speaker 1: this warning, Mr shootos with a missoo where he is

368
00:20:54,240 --> 00:21:11,840
Speaker 1: their chief US economist of of all things UH. Here

369
00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:14,239
Speaker 1: to help us learn more about what is going on

370
00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,880
Speaker 1: in the Middle East currently is Jonathan ferzigera Bloomberg Middle

371
00:21:17,920 --> 00:21:21,720
Speaker 1: East politics reporter. And Jonathan, I wonder if you could

372
00:21:21,760 --> 00:21:24,040
Speaker 1: just give us a little bit of a history lesson

373
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 1: to understand how we got to this situation and why

374
00:21:27,680 --> 00:21:31,560
Speaker 1: the location of the US embassy in Jerusalem is such

375
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:39,679
Speaker 1: a contentious issue. Sure, Jerusalem has resonances for billions of

376
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:43,720
Speaker 1: people around the world. Is a Jewish, Christian, Muslim, It

377
00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:47,960
Speaker 1: is the site of some of the holiest places for

378
00:21:48,040 --> 00:21:52,159
Speaker 1: all the fates um in. Now we're going back around

379
00:21:52,400 --> 00:21:58,159
Speaker 1: seventy years and the Israel has established the idea was

380
00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 1: that Jerusalem was going to be a capital for both

381
00:22:01,520 --> 00:22:05,280
Speaker 1: Israel Jewish state and the Palestinian state. That didn't happen.

382
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:11,800
Speaker 1: UH Israel UM and the Arab nations around it went

383
00:22:11,840 --> 00:22:17,399
Speaker 1: into a war Israel one, it established the capital, and

384
00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 1: virtually nobody, no other state in the world, very few

385
00:22:22,200 --> 00:22:25,680
Speaker 1: UH recognized it as a capital. So now seven years

386
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:28,239
Speaker 1: later Trump has done that. Okay, But but Jonnath, let

387
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:30,960
Speaker 1: me just break in and understand, because there there was

388
00:22:31,560 --> 00:22:37,640
Speaker 1: obviously many combatants in that war of n and Jordan's

389
00:22:38,680 --> 00:22:43,480
Speaker 1: was involved in a way that shaped the future of Jerusalem,

390
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:48,400
Speaker 1: did it not? Okay? So Jordan's int eight wound up

391
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:55,400
Speaker 1: as the occupying power U over Jerusalem and the West

392
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:59,119
Speaker 1: Bank that's half of Jerusalem, East Jerusalem, so the city

393
00:22:59,200 --> 00:23:03,919
Speaker 1: was split. It was split until nineteen sixty seven Jordan's

394
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:07,600
Speaker 1: had control of it, and then in the nineteen sixty

395
00:23:07,600 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 1: seven more the sixty war, UH Israel captured East Jerusalem

396
00:23:12,240 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: and the West Bank and they've been in charge since

397
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:18,400
Speaker 1: they've been next the city. And again that hasn't been

398
00:23:18,400 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 1: recognized by most countries. And at that time, just to

399
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,320
Speaker 1: be clear, at that time, in the Old City, because

400
00:23:25,320 --> 00:23:27,760
Speaker 1: there's the new City. In the Old City of Jerusalem.

401
00:23:27,800 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 1: There was a Jewish quarter in the Old City and

402
00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:36,119
Speaker 1: there were expulsions there as well. Yeah, the old city

403
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:41,560
Speaker 1: was plundered. Uh. The old city is walled. It has

404
00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:45,600
Speaker 1: uh three of the Holy of Sites in Islam and

405
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:49,040
Speaker 1: Judaism and Christianity. Um. And so there was a Jewish

406
00:23:49,040 --> 00:23:54,120
Speaker 1: section and those Jews were expelled in night. They came

407
00:23:54,160 --> 00:23:58,320
Speaker 1: back in sixty seven. Justin how unified is Israel behind

408
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 1: Mr net Yahoo and behind these moments this morning, I

409
00:24:02,840 --> 00:24:08,880
Speaker 1: think Israel is very deeply split. Um. It tilts towards

410
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: Ntan Yahoo. Uh. He uh gives his really a sense

411
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:19,240
Speaker 1: that he's fighting, that he's standing up. But especially now

412
00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 1: with the violence in in Gaza. Um, it's not going

413
00:24:22,880 --> 00:24:28,040
Speaker 1: down really well. And Israelis are worried to that point.

414
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 1: And I mean it's with great respect for all in

415
00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 1: the midst and I mean folks, the real time midst

416
00:24:35,160 --> 00:24:39,240
Speaker 1: of these protests. Is there a limit? Is there a

417
00:24:39,400 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 1: hurdle where this protest begins to have residence with the

418
00:24:43,680 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 1: people of Israel or is it is We've had in

419
00:24:46,320 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 1: this three or four reports this morning. A distraction fifty

420
00:24:50,080 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 1: miles away which sounds almost cruel. Well, I don't think

421
00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 1: it's a distraction. I think that as the deaths all

422
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:03,240
Speaker 1: amounts and it is very quick today, UM, people are

423
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:08,560
Speaker 1: digesting this and it will I mean your tomorrow's front

424
00:25:08,560 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: pages or the internet. Right now is a mix between

425
00:25:12,040 --> 00:25:15,359
Speaker 1: the glory of the the U. S. Embassy and the

426
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 1: bloodshed in in Gaza. So it's it's a pretty cloudy picture, Jonathan.

427
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 1: What has been the reaction of the Palestinian Authority based

428
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 1: in the West Bank in Ramala. So as soon as

429
00:25:30,760 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 1: UH President Trump announced the move and the recognition of

430
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:39,480
Speaker 1: Jerusalem and Israel's capital, This was in December, the Palestinian

431
00:25:39,560 --> 00:25:43,120
Speaker 1: said that they were pulling out of the peace process

432
00:25:43,280 --> 00:25:49,440
Speaker 1: or whatever peace process were started to form under under Trump. UM.

433
00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:55,640
Speaker 1: Since then, they've been somewhat removed from the confrontations in Gaza.

434
00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:02,080
Speaker 1: UM and the West Bank has been, you know, comparatively tranquil.

435
00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,760
Speaker 1: And this would because of Palestinian politics and the split

436
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,719
Speaker 1: between the Palestina Authority and the West Bank and Gaza

437
00:26:09,760 --> 00:26:13,760
Speaker 1: Strip which is controlled by Hamas. What's the economic situation

438
00:26:13,840 --> 00:26:20,679
Speaker 1: in Gaza, It's desperate, Uh, it is been awful for

439
00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:25,480
Speaker 1: the last ten years of the highest unemployment UM and

440
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:31,040
Speaker 1: food poverty and uh, it's just it's it's bleak um

441
00:26:31,080 --> 00:26:35,080
Speaker 1: and it's gotten worse UM. Partly, I mean a lot

442
00:26:35,080 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: of this derived from the fact that Gaza is surrounded

443
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 1: by by fences, is locked in by Israel and Egypt

444
00:26:43,440 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: in the south. UM, so the question of trade UM

445
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:54,360
Speaker 1: is almost off the often map. I want to thank

446
00:26:54,359 --> 00:26:58,680
Speaker 1: you very much for joining us Jonathan Bloomberg Middle East

447
00:26:58,680 --> 00:27:02,959
Speaker 1: politics reporter, giving us details about the United States opening

448
00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: it's a Jerusalem embassy and also dozens killed, a dozen

449
00:27:08,280 --> 00:27:14,640
Speaker 1: stead in as Gaza as confrontations over this US embassy

450
00:27:14,680 --> 00:27:18,679
Speaker 1: move on the border between Gaza and you know, and Israel.

451
00:27:25,200 --> 00:27:29,400
Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

452
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:34,800
Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

453
00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:39,080
Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keane before

454
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:43,320
Speaker 1: the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.