WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: George Patterson & Mark Gurman

0:00:02.400 --> 0:00:15.680
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

0:00:13.160 --> 0:00:16.880
<v Speaker 2>Single most idea technology edition. You think Caroline Hyder at

0:00:16.920 --> 0:00:19.360
<v Speaker 2>Ludlow would show up today, but it is a big

0:00:19.400 --> 0:00:22.440
<v Speaker 2>tech day. The Apple Soiree. By the time you listen

0:00:22.480 --> 0:00:25.280
<v Speaker 2>to this, you'll probably know what he says about AI

0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:29.000
<v Speaker 2>and new products. I would like to trade in the

0:00:29.000 --> 0:00:34.319
<v Speaker 2>fourteen iPads under the living room couch, all separate. What

0:00:34.360 --> 0:00:37.240
<v Speaker 2>a mess that is. Hope you're having your Apple purchases

0:00:37.280 --> 0:00:40.879
<v Speaker 2>this summer, like the rest of US. Mark German here

0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.239
<v Speaker 2>in a bit right now. George Patterson with PGM. He's

0:00:44.280 --> 0:00:47.960
<v Speaker 2>in quantitative finance in that, but also heavily in the

0:00:48.000 --> 0:00:52.120
<v Speaker 2>physics out of MITBU and the jet Propulsion Lab now

0:00:52.120 --> 0:00:55.800
<v Speaker 2>at PGM across the Hudson River holding Court and quantitative

0:00:56.000 --> 0:00:57.520
<v Speaker 2>George Patterson on tech.

0:00:57.960 --> 0:01:00.920
<v Speaker 3>The US is rather interesting with tech, Yes, it is.

0:01:01.160 --> 0:01:04.160
<v Speaker 3>It is rather unique. I don't know. I don't think

0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:08.000
<v Speaker 3>we're going to be into a into a tail risk environment.

0:01:08.040 --> 0:01:10.800
<v Speaker 3>I think, quite honestly, the fundamentals in the US are

0:01:11.120 --> 0:01:12.959
<v Speaker 3>relatively strong, and I think we have a very good

0:01:13.040 --> 0:01:16.240
<v Speaker 3>chance at a soft landing. You know, the reason we

0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:18.880
<v Speaker 3>talk about some of these these words like skewness and

0:01:18.959 --> 0:01:21.600
<v Speaker 3>krotosis is because at the end of the day, everything

0:01:21.600 --> 0:01:24.720
<v Speaker 3>they taught you in college or graduate school about statistics

0:01:25.160 --> 0:01:26.880
<v Speaker 3>is a good place to start. But the real world

0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:29.400
<v Speaker 3>is more complex, right. You can't model it as a

0:01:29.520 --> 0:01:32.959
<v Speaker 3>normal distribution. You can't. You can't just worry about the

0:01:33.000 --> 0:01:35.680
<v Speaker 3>me and the standard deviation. You have to worry about tales.

0:01:36.480 --> 0:01:39.080
<v Speaker 3>And that's how you that's why we start talking about

0:01:39.120 --> 0:01:41.520
<v Speaker 3>some of these concepts. So I don't think we're I

0:01:41.560 --> 0:01:43.280
<v Speaker 3>don't think we're on the verge of a tail risk

0:01:43.440 --> 0:01:46.720
<v Speaker 3>scenario right now, but you have to plan for these things.

0:01:46.840 --> 0:01:50.000
<v Speaker 2>A couple ideas here. I really can't say enough about

0:01:50.000 --> 0:01:55.480
<v Speaker 2>reading TALEB in order. Fooled by Randomness is underappreciated. It

0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:59.080
<v Speaker 2>is thin, it is highly readable. The book Fooled by

0:01:59.120 --> 0:02:02.080
<v Speaker 2>Randomness was first effort, and then onto the Black Swan

0:02:02.720 --> 0:02:06.920
<v Speaker 2>and others. There's just a broad language there that's so valuable,

0:02:06.960 --> 0:02:09.760
<v Speaker 2>as you heard from mister Patterson. And the other thing

0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:12.880
<v Speaker 2>to do is take advantage out on LinkedIn of the

0:02:12.919 --> 0:02:17.240
<v Speaker 2>work of Michael Mobison now at Morgan Stanley, who actually

0:02:17.240 --> 0:02:22.680
<v Speaker 2>published I Believe Friday on portfolio concentration on the Magnificent Seven.

0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:27.840
<v Speaker 2>But these ideas these strange words like curtosis and skewness

0:02:28.600 --> 0:02:32.360
<v Speaker 2>are really really important in terms of shocks that we

0:02:32.440 --> 0:02:37.800
<v Speaker 2>haven't seen recently, like corrections and bear markets and worse.

0:02:38.360 --> 0:02:40.400
<v Speaker 2>What a joy today before the Apple meeting to wake

0:02:40.480 --> 0:02:44.720
<v Speaker 2>Mark German up early in la German is the Apple source.

0:02:44.880 --> 0:02:50.080
<v Speaker 2>He is chief correspondent for Apple and technology for Bloomberg News.

0:02:50.240 --> 0:02:55.480
<v Speaker 2>Absolutely definitive worldwide. A great conversation with him about this

0:02:55.600 --> 0:02:58.360
<v Speaker 2>huge event of what we would and would not see

0:02:58.600 --> 0:02:59.400
<v Speaker 2>from Tim Cook.

0:03:00.080 --> 0:03:03.320
<v Speaker 1>To pay Sam Altman to probably be there in the

0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:06.440
<v Speaker 1>audience along with many others, but I don't anticipate him

0:03:06.480 --> 0:03:10.600
<v Speaker 1>being in the event henote itself on stage with Tim Cook.

0:03:10.680 --> 0:03:13.960
<v Speaker 1>I think that this OpenAI partnership, well, it's a huge

0:03:14.000 --> 0:03:16.560
<v Speaker 1>positive for Apple. It's also a bit of an embarrassment

0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:18.800
<v Speaker 1>for the company because that means they weren't able to

0:03:18.840 --> 0:03:21.680
<v Speaker 1>get their own large language models up to snuff enough

0:03:21.880 --> 0:03:24.720
<v Speaker 1>to do it on their own, necessitating the partnership.

0:03:24.840 --> 0:03:25.000
<v Speaker 2>Right.

0:03:25.480 --> 0:03:28.480
<v Speaker 1>I fully anticipate Apple to get to their own set

0:03:28.520 --> 0:03:31.720
<v Speaker 1>of generative AI capabilities. It's not going to be this year,

0:03:32.360 --> 0:03:34.360
<v Speaker 1>probably not going to be next year or the year after,

0:03:34.880 --> 0:03:36.920
<v Speaker 1>but at some point they will need to move to

0:03:36.960 --> 0:03:40.560
<v Speaker 1>their own set of generative AI capabilities. The question is

0:03:40.560 --> 0:03:43.680
<v Speaker 1>is this entirely a technology issue. I think the lack

0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:46.000
<v Speaker 1>of technology is ninety percent of it, but there's that

0:03:46.080 --> 0:03:49.560
<v Speaker 1>ten percent factor there where generative AI and these chatbox

0:03:49.600 --> 0:03:53.160
<v Speaker 1>they still have what's called hallucinations, which is their fancy

0:03:53.280 --> 0:03:57.000
<v Speaker 1>term for or funny term I guess for getting wrong

0:03:57.120 --> 0:04:02.920
<v Speaker 1>information right. And if you're able to blame open ai

0:04:03.680 --> 0:04:06.280
<v Speaker 1>rather than yourself, that makes it a lot easier. So

0:04:06.400 --> 0:04:09.240
<v Speaker 1>you're going to see lots of mess ups and lots

0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:12.040
<v Speaker 1>of issues from open ai schop on on the iPhone, right,

0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:14.080
<v Speaker 1>but no one's gonna blame Apple for it because everyone's

0:04:14.080 --> 0:04:14.920
<v Speaker 1>going to know what's opening eye.

0:04:15.040 --> 0:04:19.440
<v Speaker 2>Mark Kerrman, there getting towards a big, big Apple event.

0:04:19.560 --> 0:04:22.920
<v Speaker 2>I really can't emphasize enough the richness of what we

0:04:22.960 --> 0:04:27.360
<v Speaker 2>see right now. I'm Bloomberg surveillance. The phrase that we

0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:33.400
<v Speaker 2>invented this economics, finance, investment, and international relations. The shock

0:04:33.560 --> 0:04:37.320
<v Speaker 2>of the political elections from Indie, I forgot about Mexico.

0:04:37.480 --> 0:04:41.560
<v Speaker 2>Terry haynes A Pangaeea reminded me of the shock in Mexico.

0:04:41.640 --> 0:04:44.520
<v Speaker 2>But what we saw over the weekend, the vote of

0:04:44.560 --> 0:04:46.920
<v Speaker 2>the European people and there's all sorts of nuances there.

0:04:47.160 --> 0:04:51.040
<v Speaker 2>I should say thank you Stephen Carroll of Bloomberg Radio London.

0:04:51.160 --> 0:04:56.240
<v Speaker 2>Just outstanding from Brussels this morning. But boy is it

0:04:56.279 --> 0:04:59.880
<v Speaker 2>going to be an interesting interesting June to the debate

0:05:00.080 --> 0:05:04.599
<v Speaker 2>of the presidents and on the conventions as well. On

0:05:04.880 --> 0:05:10.080
<v Speaker 2>Apple Podcasts, I hope after the meeting today on Apple Podcasts,

0:05:10.120 --> 0:05:12.880
<v Speaker 2>single best idea