Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Single most idea technology edition. You think Caroline Hyder at
Speaker 2: Ludlow would show up today, but it is a big
Speaker 2: tech day. The Apple Soiree. By the time you listen
Speaker 2: to this, you'll probably know what he says about AI
Speaker 2: and new products. I would like to trade in the
Speaker 2: fourteen iPads under the living room couch, all separate. What
Speaker 2: a mess that is. Hope you're having your Apple purchases
Speaker 2: this summer, like the rest of US. Mark German here
Speaker 2: in a bit right now. George Patterson with PGM. He's
Speaker 2: in quantitative finance in that, but also heavily in the
Speaker 2: physics out of MITBU and the jet Propulsion Lab now
Speaker 2: at PGM across the Hudson River holding Court and quantitative
Speaker 2: George Patterson on tech.
Speaker 3: The US is rather interesting with tech, Yes, it is.
Speaker 3: It is rather unique. I don't know. I don't think
Speaker 3: we're going to be into a into a tail risk environment.
Speaker 3: I think, quite honestly, the fundamentals in the US are
Speaker 3: relatively strong, and I think we have a very good
Speaker 3: chance at a soft landing. You know, the reason we
Speaker 3: talk about some of these these words like skewness and
Speaker 3: krotosis is because at the end of the day, everything
Speaker 3: they taught you in college or graduate school about statistics
Speaker 3: is a good place to start. But the real world
Speaker 3: is more complex, right. You can't model it as a
Speaker 3: normal distribution. You can't. You can't just worry about the
Speaker 3: me and the standard deviation. You have to worry about tales.
Speaker 3: And that's how you that's why we start talking about
Speaker 3: some of these concepts. So I don't think we're I
Speaker 3: don't think we're on the verge of a tail risk
Speaker 3: scenario right now, but you have to plan for these things.
Speaker 2: A couple ideas here. I really can't say enough about
Speaker 2: reading TALEB in order. Fooled by Randomness is underappreciated. It
Speaker 2: is thin, it is highly readable. The book Fooled by
Speaker 2: Randomness was first effort, and then onto the Black Swan
Speaker 2: and others. There's just a broad language there that's so valuable,
Speaker 2: as you heard from mister Patterson. And the other thing
Speaker 2: to do is take advantage out on LinkedIn of the
Speaker 2: work of Michael Mobison now at Morgan Stanley, who actually
Speaker 2: published I Believe Friday on portfolio concentration on the Magnificent Seven.
Speaker 2: But these ideas these strange words like curtosis and skewness
Speaker 2: are really really important in terms of shocks that we
Speaker 2: haven't seen recently, like corrections and bear markets and worse.
Speaker 2: What a joy today before the Apple meeting to wake
Speaker 2: Mark German up early in la German is the Apple source.
Speaker 2: He is chief correspondent for Apple and technology for Bloomberg News.
Speaker 2: Absolutely definitive worldwide. A great conversation with him about this
Speaker 2: huge event of what we would and would not see
Speaker 2: from Tim Cook.
Speaker 1: To pay Sam Altman to probably be there in the
Speaker 1: audience along with many others, but I don't anticipate him
Speaker 1: being in the event henote itself on stage with Tim Cook.
Speaker 1: I think that this OpenAI partnership, well, it's a huge
Speaker 1: positive for Apple. It's also a bit of an embarrassment
Speaker 1: for the company because that means they weren't able to
Speaker 1: get their own large language models up to snuff enough
Speaker 1: to do it on their own, necessitating the partnership.
Speaker 2: Right.
Speaker 1: I fully anticipate Apple to get to their own set
Speaker 1: of generative AI capabilities. It's not going to be this year,
Speaker 1: probably not going to be next year or the year after,
Speaker 1: but at some point they will need to move to
Speaker 1: their own set of generative AI capabilities. The question is
Speaker 1: is this entirely a technology issue. I think the lack
Speaker 1: of technology is ninety percent of it, but there's that
Speaker 1: ten percent factor there where generative AI and these chatbox
Speaker 1: they still have what's called hallucinations, which is their fancy
Speaker 1: term for or funny term I guess for getting wrong
Speaker 1: information right. And if you're able to blame open ai
Speaker 1: rather than yourself, that makes it a lot easier. So
Speaker 1: you're going to see lots of mess ups and lots
Speaker 1: of issues from open ai schop on on the iPhone, right,
Speaker 1: but no one's gonna blame Apple for it because everyone's
Speaker 1: going to know what's opening eye.
Speaker 2: Mark Kerrman, there getting towards a big, big Apple event.
Speaker 2: I really can't emphasize enough the richness of what we
Speaker 2: see right now. I'm Bloomberg surveillance. The phrase that we
Speaker 2: invented this economics, finance, investment, and international relations. The shock
Speaker 2: of the political elections from Indie, I forgot about Mexico.
Speaker 2: Terry haynes A Pangaeea reminded me of the shock in Mexico.
Speaker 2: But what we saw over the weekend, the vote of
Speaker 2: the European people and there's all sorts of nuances there.
Speaker 2: I should say thank you Stephen Carroll of Bloomberg Radio London.
Speaker 2: Just outstanding from Brussels this morning. But boy is it
Speaker 2: going to be an interesting interesting June to the debate
Speaker 2: of the presidents and on the conventions as well. On
Speaker 2: Apple Podcasts, I hope after the meeting today on Apple Podcasts,
Speaker 2: single best idea