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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Law Podcast. I'm June Grosso. Every

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Speaker 1: day we bring you insight and analysis into the most

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Speaker 1: important legal news of the day. You can find more

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Speaker 1: episodes of the Bloomberg Law Podcast on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud

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Speaker 1: and on Bloomberg dot com slash podcasts. President Trump is

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Speaker 1: trying to downplay Michael Cohen's guilty plead, telling Fox News

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Speaker 1: in a new interview that Cohen's actions don't constitute a

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Speaker 1: campaign finance violation. Obama had it, other people have it.

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Speaker 1: Almost everybody that runs for office has camp campaign violations.

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Speaker 1: But what Michael Cohen pled to weren't even campaign related.

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Speaker 1: They weren't crimes. Joining us as Ken Doyle, Senior editor

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Speaker 1: for Money and Politics at Bloomberg Government, He's coming to

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Speaker 1: us from our Bloomberg studios in Washington. Can let's start

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Speaker 1: by straightening out the difference between the fine against Obama

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Speaker 1: is two thousand eight presidential campaign and the crime, the

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Speaker 1: felony that Coin pleated to. Yeah, the the Obama issue

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Speaker 1: that he was talking about was I had to do

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Speaker 1: with reporting. It was the Obama campaign raised three quarters

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Speaker 1: of a billion dollars. Uh, and they some of the

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Speaker 1: contributors gave more than they than they were allowed to give.

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Speaker 1: They had, you know, repeated contributions, and some of them

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Speaker 1: went over the line of what they were allowed to

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Speaker 1: give UM, and they were not uh you know, reported

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Speaker 1: or they were not reported on time. And the FBC

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Speaker 1: went back and audited that the Obama campaign found some

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Speaker 1: of those problems and ended up UM finding the Obama

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Speaker 1: campaign actually several hundred thousand dollars, but compared to the

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Speaker 1: amount of money in the campaign it was, it was

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Speaker 1: pretty minimal, and it was considered at that time an

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Speaker 1: administrative paperwork violation. Essentially that the contrast, of course with

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Speaker 1: the the Michael Cohen UH case is UM the key

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Speaker 1: issue of intent. We've been waiting for this uh you know,

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Speaker 1: shoot to drop for several months uh that you know,

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Speaker 1: since Cohen's office and apartment were raided and they were

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Speaker 1: looking for UM documents and other information that might show

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Speaker 1: whether payments were made, who made them, and and the

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Speaker 1: key issue of why where they made And Cohen got

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Speaker 1: up there and said it was because UM of the

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Speaker 1: campaign and because they were trying to hide what was

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Speaker 1: going on from from the voters. Essentially, can as far

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Speaker 1: as we're concern. You're the top expert in the country

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Speaker 1: on campaign and that well, and we talk all the

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Speaker 1: time about the weaknesses and failures in them. But in

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Speaker 1: this instance, in the Cohen case, did they work. It

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Speaker 1: looks like, well, we'll see, I mean, right, you know,

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Speaker 1: the the Cohen is a Cohen made a plea bargain.

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Speaker 1: It's not the end of the story. Um. The question is, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, whether it can be proven that the Trump

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Speaker 1: campaign did something that that it wasn't supposed to do,

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Speaker 1: and whether whether the president, I mean he implicates the

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Speaker 1: president in his statement. I was struck by the contrast

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Speaker 1: between the the Cohen case, you know, where there was

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Speaker 1: a guilty plea in New York, and then the Manifer

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Speaker 1: case in Virginia where there was a trial. And in

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Speaker 1: the Manifert case, of course, you had you know, a

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Speaker 1: mountain of evidence, documents, uh, witnesses going in there to

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Speaker 1: testify about the financial and tax crimes of Manifort. In

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Speaker 1: in the Cohen case, you have one guy standing up

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Speaker 1: there saying I did it and it was because of

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Speaker 1: the campaign and because it was a plea bargain that

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Speaker 1: prosecutors don't have to prove anything more than that I've

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Speaker 1: got the guy that they're charging admitting that he did it.

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Speaker 1: But if somebody else's charge who says he didn't do it,

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Speaker 1: like President Trump, they would need to prevent present more

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Speaker 1: evidence and present witnesses like Cohen to try and prove

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Speaker 1: that case. And so that is where this moves now.

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Speaker 1: But Ken the prosecutors can't. I couldn't have stood by

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Speaker 1: Michael Cohen in his plea if they didn't have evidence

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Speaker 1: that what he was saying. In other words, it didn't

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Speaker 1: have evidence backing up what he was saying. They have

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Speaker 1: to have they have to have something they've also they

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Speaker 1: haven't named people, but there are other people referenced. And

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Speaker 1: my question to you is if and Kazombie said the

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Speaker 1: deputy U S Attorney said afterwards, we will not fear

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Speaker 1: prosecuting additional campaign finance cases. Does it sound to you

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Speaker 1: from what you see in the information, the Cohen information

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Speaker 1: and what was said, that there are more campaign finance

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Speaker 1: cases ahead? Well? Yeah, I mean the question is what

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Speaker 1: will they do? Was Cohen got up there and said

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Speaker 1: I was ordered by the candidate to do this. The

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Speaker 1: candidate was Trump. So you know, the principal person involved

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Speaker 1: in this is President Trump. According to Cohen's plea, the

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Speaker 1: question is can they prove that, you know, Trump is

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Speaker 1: you know, making sort of legal arguments and not so

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Speaker 1: much factual arguments anymore. He initially denied that the payments

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Speaker 1: were made, but now he's you know, pretty much admitted

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Speaker 1: that this was done, but said it was unrelated to

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Speaker 1: the campaign. And the question is, what is the evidence

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Speaker 1: there other than Cohen's say so that could prove that

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Speaker 1: now that you know, this all happened after his apartment

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Speaker 1: was rated, and and the and his computers and phones

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Speaker 1: and and everything. We're looked at by prosecutors which presumably had,

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Speaker 1: you know, the hard evidence there that could that could

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Speaker 1: back this up. But we haven't seen that yet. Ken.

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Speaker 1: We want to also talk about this other campaign finance case,

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Speaker 1: UM involving California Congressman Duncan Hunter. Uh. He has now

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Speaker 1: been charged with using hundreds of thousands of dollars in

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Speaker 1: campaign funds for personal expenses. Uh. What's your analysis of

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Speaker 1: that case? Yeah, this is one that that also came

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Speaker 1: down on Tuesday. Tuesday was a big day. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: another one that has been percolating for actually for years.

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Speaker 1: I mean it's a year and a half ago, UH,

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Speaker 1: the House Ethics Committee announced that it had handed off

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Speaker 1: an investigation of Hunter to the Justice Department. UM. This,

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Speaker 1: you know, similar to some of the some of the

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Speaker 1: issues involved in the Trump situation, UH, comes down to

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Speaker 1: questions of intent that if somebody, um, you know, certainly

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Speaker 1: somebody candidate is allowed to raise and spend money, that's

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Speaker 1: the key to to running campaigns. But there are distinctions

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Speaker 1: between um, spending money to help a campaign and spending

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Speaker 1: money to help a candidate. And and what happened with

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Speaker 1: the Hunter cases that UM, there was money that was

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Speaker 1: reported on FEC forms to be for campaign expenses, things

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Speaker 1: like travel and entertainment, which can be campaign expenses if

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Speaker 1: you're raising money or trying to trying to spread your message.

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Speaker 1: But in fact, according to the prosecutors, UH, this was

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Speaker 1: money that was used to take family vacations, to pay

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Speaker 1: for his school tuition, to pay for um, you know,

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Speaker 1: other types of entertainment. You know, some of it very lavish.

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Speaker 1: It was two fifty dollars that it was that where

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Speaker 1: you had a family here that was just simply living

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Speaker 1: beyond its means and using the piggy bank of a

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Speaker 1: you know, a campaign accounts stuffed with cash in a

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Speaker 1: in a district where he was considered a very safe candidate,

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Speaker 1: didn't need to spend a lot of money to get elected,

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Speaker 1: and he was just helping himself to the money. That's

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Speaker 1: that's the allegation. Ken, Just about a minute here. How

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Speaker 1: could you expect to get away with such flagrant violations

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Speaker 1: like that? Oh, that's a that's a great question. And

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean I think that, Um, you know, somebody,

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Speaker 1: a congressman who figures that he's in a safe seat,

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Speaker 1: who has a huge amount of money, I think probably

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Speaker 1: has a temptation you know, any of us sitting there,

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Speaker 1: you know, with an account that we could just write

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Speaker 1: a check on for anything, uh, and decide that we

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Speaker 1: need money and say, well, I've got that sitting there,

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Speaker 1: let's let's just stab that. I think that's a big temptation.

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Speaker 1: And and some people, you know, succumbed to temptation. And

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Speaker 1: we certainly have people power who are not necessarily the

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Speaker 1: most honest people, at least according to prosecutors. Okay, well,

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Speaker 1: we will see if we hear more of these kinds

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Speaker 1: of cases. Thanks so much, Ken, that's Ken Doyle. He's

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Speaker 1: a senior editor for Money in Politics at Bloomberg Government.

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Speaker 1: Coming up, we're gonna be talking more about the Cohen

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Speaker 1: Plea and the effect it's having at the White House

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Speaker 1: and on President Trump. And a reminder you can listen

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Speaker 1: to all of today's interviews, as well as past episodes

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Speaker 1: of the show anytime on Bloomberg dot com slash podcast.

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Speaker 1: That's Bloomberg dot Com slash Podcast. More coming up on politics, policy,

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Speaker 1: power and law. This is Bloomberg. Just after she won

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Speaker 1: the Republican primary election earlier this month, Wisconsin Senate candidate

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Speaker 1: Leah Vockmere attacked her Democratic opponent, the incumbent Senator Tammy Baldwin,

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Speaker 1: does not represent our Wisconsin value, but a new poll

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Speaker 1: from Marquette University in Milwaukee shows that a slim majority

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Speaker 1: of Wisconsin voters support Baldwin over a Bookmare. Charles Franklin

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Speaker 1: is a professor of law in public policy and the

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Speaker 1: director of the Marquette Law School Pole and he joins

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Speaker 1: us now from by phone from Milwaukee with more on

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Speaker 1: this on his new poll and a professor, what are

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Speaker 1: the numbers, well, we've got of likely voters. Baldwin at

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Speaker 1: forty nine, Bookmer at forty seven, so that's close. If

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Speaker 1: you look at all registered voters, it's Baldwin Book forty

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Speaker 1: three and eight point margin, which is about the same

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Speaker 1: as in June when it was a nine point margin.

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Speaker 1: So it looks like this race has tightened, but it's

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Speaker 1: especially tightened among the people most likely to vote and

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Speaker 1: likely more familiar with bookmir is a challenger, she's never

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Speaker 1: run statewide. She's still introducing herself to voters now. Um

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Speaker 1: what seems to be changing making the race tighten up?

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Speaker 1: Is President Trump a focus in any way in this race?

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Speaker 1: He is? I think one thing is you remember we

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Speaker 1: just had the primary last week, so vookmyre and the

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Speaker 1: Democratic gubernatorial candidate are both getting post primary bounces, So

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Speaker 1: that's one element of it. Vookemayor and her Republican opponent

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Speaker 1: strongly embraced Donald Trump and his policies in the primary.

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Speaker 1: They really ran with Trump in competing with each other

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Speaker 1: for the nomination. So one of the questions is does

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Speaker 1: that help her or hurt her? Now as she turns

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Speaker 1: to the general election, and there it's a little challenging.

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Speaker 1: Trump is underwater here approved fifty one disapproved, but Republicans

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Speaker 1: eight seven percent approval Demn's just four, but on the

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Speaker 1: important independence Trump is at forty one fifty two. So

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Speaker 1: voke mayor needs to appeal to some of those independents

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Speaker 1: and they're a bit underwater for Trump. And uh, professor,

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Speaker 1: just hold on for one second, because we do have this, uh,

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Speaker 1: these headlines hitting the Bloomberg terminal right now. Speaking of

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Speaker 1: President Trump, and as you know, he gave an interview

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Speaker 1: to Fox News this morning in which he was once

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Speaker 1: again critical of his Attorney General, Jeff Sessions. But in

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Speaker 1: a statement, uh, the Attorney General says that he is

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Speaker 1: proud to serve with the Justice Department and says that

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Speaker 1: d o J actions won't be influenced by politics. And

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Speaker 1: interesting comments from the Attorney general their professor, Um, actually,

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Speaker 1: I mean will the will is this kind of thing?

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Speaker 1: Will this all this all this stuff with the campaign

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Speaker 1: and the Russian investigation, Manifort Cohen and what and what

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Speaker 1: have you, and this with Jeff Sessions. Let's get your reaction.

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Speaker 1: Is that showing up in the polling that you're doing.

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Speaker 1: Will that Will that become an issue in the campaign?

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Speaker 1: I think it certainly can be. But first of all,

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Speaker 1: our Paul was finished before the events of Tuesdays, that's

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Speaker 1: not in there. UM. I think that what we're looking

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Speaker 1: at with the Mueller investigation generally, this is in our

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Speaker 1: data and you see it in national data, is there

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Speaker 1: has been greater polarization on the views of Muller since

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Speaker 1: he started. At the beginning, UM, people were sort of

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Speaker 1: okay with him, but now Democrats are very confident in

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Speaker 1: his investigation. Republicans give it very little credence, and so

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Speaker 1: that great polarization kind of diminishes the effect of Mauler events.

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Speaker 1: Now a confession and a guilty pleague coupled with actual

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Speaker 1: conviction in a case, those are the kinds of concrete

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Speaker 1: things that could move opinion more as they go on

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Speaker 1: and as they continue to develop, because they got beyond

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Speaker 1: mirror rhetoric and show that independent judges or juries have

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Speaker 1: reached these conclusions. So stay tuned. But I think we

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Speaker 1: stay tuned over the next six months, which will be

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Speaker 1: of course passed the elections, and see if there's any

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Speaker 1: late breaking things in the fall. Professor, Nationally are you

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Speaker 1: polling and how are if you are, how are the

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Speaker 1: other congressional races. Is that there's been a lot of

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Speaker 1: publicity and a lot of polls saying that the Democrats

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Speaker 1: are going to take the House. Yeah, I don't do

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Speaker 1: national polls, but I co founded polster dot com a

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Speaker 1: few years ago, so this is stuff that I do

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Speaker 1: all the time. The national generic ballot has been fairly

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Speaker 1: steady on the vote for Congress Democrat or Republican, with

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Speaker 1: Democrats holding between a six and seven point lead there.

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Speaker 1: It fluctuates from day to day, but mostly it's been

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Speaker 1: in that range since April. That's enough to be a

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Speaker 1: good year for Democrats, but it's maybe the quite you know,

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Speaker 1: is it uh enough to win the House? Probably? Is

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Speaker 1: it enough to have a sweeping win of the House. No,

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Speaker 1: probably not, And of course this could change yet. But

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Speaker 1: Republican support there's been pretty flat. Democrats have been fluctuating recently,

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Speaker 1: have moved up just a little bit, but overall not

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Speaker 1: a lot of movement. Still good for the Damns, but

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Speaker 1: not overwhelmingly. So just back to Wisconsin, I'm just curious

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Speaker 1: if if trade wars are showing up in your polling.

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Speaker 1: They are, and we're seeing movement again, affected by the

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Speaker 1: rhetoric of the President and other Republicans. We've been asking

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Speaker 1: whether trade tariffs will be good or bad for the

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Speaker 1: US economy. In UH July only thought the tariffs would

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Speaker 1: be good. That was in the wake of the President's

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Speaker 1: attacks on Harley Davidson as well. But now a month later,

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Speaker 1: UH Tariff's good has gone up to about thirty four

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Speaker 1: or five support, and most importantly, Republicans have gone from

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Speaker 1: only about thinking tariffs are good to now six republicans

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Speaker 1: think tariffs are good. It's a strong example of political

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Speaker 1: leadership being able to move their supporters even on economic

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Speaker 1: ideas that we used to think we're baked in in

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Speaker 1: a free market Republican party. Charles frank Franklin, professor of

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Speaker 1: law and public Policy and the director of the Marquette

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Speaker 1: Law School Poll with all the numbers, Thank you so much. Well.

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Speaker 1: Coming up on Bloomberg Politics, Policy, Power and Law, Democrats

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Speaker 1: reveal their plans to overhaul the tax overhaul. Thanks for

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Speaker 1: listening to the Bloomberg Law Podcast. You can subscribe and

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Speaker 1: listen to the show on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, and on

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