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Speaker 1: This is WSB News Radio courtesy of the Soliverbal College

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Speaker 1: Football podcast. Minding is Tye Hildebrand. That guy there is

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Speaker 1: Dan Rubinstein. You give us a download, We'll give you

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Speaker 1: the college football world. Before we get into it, Dan,

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Speaker 1: don't forget to go on out to our website at

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Speaker 1: solidverbal dot com. That, of course, is where you can

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Speaker 1: find all the links to download and subscribe and listen

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Speaker 1: to this podcast. We put out three episodes per week

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Speaker 1: on the public feed Monday, Wednesday and Friday. This being

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Speaker 1: our news show, we're gonna talk with Bill Connolly momentarily

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Speaker 1: Bill Connolly of ESPN dot com about the news of

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Speaker 1: the week, what it all means from an SP plus

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Speaker 1: statistical standpoint. We'll get into all of that and much

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Speaker 1: much more before we do, though. Outside of soliverbal dot com,

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Speaker 1: go to solid Saturday dot com. That's where you can

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Speaker 1: find our our Saturday morning live stream. We start up

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Speaker 1: every Saturday at eleven am Eastern time. We walk you

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Speaker 1: through all of the pertinent college football windows, help you

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Speaker 1: map out your day accordingly so that you get the

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Speaker 1: optimal viewing experience. Also, going out to verballers dot com.

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Speaker 1: V E R B A L L e r S

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Speaker 1: dot com. You get all of our shows a little

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Speaker 1: bit early, including this one. You also get access to

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Speaker 1: our discord server where you can chat amongst the people

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Speaker 1: and our teaming community of solid verbal followers and listeners

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Speaker 1: and super fans, and you just get access to a

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Speaker 1: great community of folks that are every bit as passionate

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Speaker 1: about college football as you are. And of course, on

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Speaker 1: top of that, we did do a bonus show, did

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Speaker 1: a bonus Q and a show we called The Bruin A.

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Speaker 1: We also did a bonus show in reaction to the

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Speaker 1: first round of college football playoff rankings, which we're going

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Speaker 1: to discuss here in a lot more detail with our

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Speaker 1: friend Bill Connolly.

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Speaker 2: Dan correct, I have nothing to add or correct about

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Speaker 2: what you just said.

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Speaker 1: So at this hour we have playoff rankings. Your top

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Speaker 1: four per the College Football Playoff Committee is Georgia, Alabama,

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Speaker 1: Michigan State, and Oregon. Some eyebrows raised as Cincinnati comes

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Speaker 1: in initially at number six, Wake Forest comes in at

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Speaker 1: number nine. We'll talk about that and much much more

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Speaker 1: with Bill Connolly the other news of the week, and

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Speaker 1: we talked about it briefly on the preview show. Gary Patterson,

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Speaker 1: Gary Patterson and TCU mutually parting ways. They're going to

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Speaker 1: be in the hunt for a new coach.

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Speaker 3: We'll talk with Bill in a.

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Speaker 1: Little bit more detail, Dan about where it all went wrong. Agree,

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Speaker 1: joining us now, Bill Ce. Bill Connolly still on your side.

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Speaker 1: He is joining us from his comfy abode. You're in

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Speaker 1: missus surry right Bill.

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Speaker 3: Forever? Apparently By the way.

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Speaker 2: Not a lot of people have that the the last

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Speaker 2: name initial associated with their first name, like a couple

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Speaker 2: of Spice girls if I remember correctly, There's like a

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Speaker 2: Melb Melb and maybe another mel melc. But like, there

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Speaker 2: aren't that many, are there. Shila E who draws it

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Speaker 2: was like a famous drummer.

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Speaker 3: I mean, look, I'm cardial with anything that ties Cardi B.

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Speaker 2: But I don't think that's a real name.

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Speaker 3: I don't okay with anything that ties me to Sheila.

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Speaker 2: That's fine, that's true. She really gets after it. Sorry, Ty,

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Speaker 2: you can continue now with your actual professionalism.

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Speaker 1: The Bill C from ESPN dot Com joining us, as

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Speaker 1: he has all season long on a fairly regular basis,

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Speaker 1: talk through what's going on in the world of college football.

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Speaker 1: So the news, I guess since we last spoke, there's

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Speaker 1: been a lot of it, But why don't we start

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Speaker 1: with the TCU thing. So the news broke earlier this

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Speaker 1: week that T see You and Gary Patterson would be

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Speaker 1: mutually parting ways. As we've discussed on this show and

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Speaker 1: as many other shows have seemingly discussed as well, TCU

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Speaker 1: has been in this weird kind of state for the

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Speaker 1: last couple of seasons. I think from afar, if you

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Speaker 1: don't pay super close attention to what's going on, it's

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Speaker 1: really just felt like they're very, very inconsistent. But as

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Speaker 1: you dive in, as I know you have, what has

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Speaker 1: been going on at TCU that led to this ultimate point.

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Speaker 3: Well, I the more I think about it, the more

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Speaker 3: I think it's as much as anything like a talent

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Speaker 3: and depth issue. Depth more than talent, maybe just because

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Speaker 3: you know, it has been like four years of extremely

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Speaker 3: like hovering right around five hundred, which honestly is still

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Speaker 3: way better than you know they were doing before he

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Speaker 3: got there as defensive coordinator in nineteen ninety eight, but

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Speaker 3: it was clearly not at the level that they had

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Speaker 3: established in previous years. And you know, before this season,

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Speaker 3: I think as much as anything, it was about uh,

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Speaker 3: you know, the offense trailed off. The offense wasn't you know,

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Speaker 3: keeping up. It's into the bargain, which, of course, when

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Speaker 3: when you've made your hey as the defensive innova innovator

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Speaker 3: of the twenty first century, then it would make sense

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Speaker 3: that that's where you fall off. But this year it

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Speaker 3: flipped around entirely. He you know, he made some staff changes,

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Speaker 3: he got he you know, Zach Evans is awesome. Like

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Speaker 3: they they've done better offensively. Let's you know, that rating's

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Speaker 3: fallen a little. Let's say they're forty first right now

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Speaker 3: in offensive best people as they were in the twenties

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Speaker 3: there for a little while, and then they scored twelve

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Speaker 3: points on Kansas State. I was gonna say, yeah, but

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Speaker 3: but they I mean, it's still it's it's absolutely improved.

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Speaker 3: And the defense has fallen off a cliff and injuries

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Speaker 3: have played a role in that for sure, but they

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Speaker 3: just haven't. They just don't have much to offer. They're

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Speaker 3: not you know, they give up a ton of like

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Speaker 3: when you give up when you make a successful play

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Speaker 3: on them. It's a big one, which isn't necessarily unique

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Speaker 3: for their for their system and the aggressiveness that it entails,

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Speaker 3: but they're not. There's no there turnovers, three and out

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Speaker 3: stuff like that. They're just not making any plays defensively.

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Speaker 3: And when a guy does what he did and innovates

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Speaker 3: and changes college football basically with the way he played defense,

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Speaker 3: and everybody starts adapting some of the things he's been doing,

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Speaker 3: it can be like a Chip Kelly thing where you

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Speaker 3: lose your tactical edge and don't necessarily create another one.

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Speaker 3: But they were awesome defensively last year. It's not like

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Speaker 3: that's been the cause of this four year kind of

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Speaker 3: mediocre issue. And that makes me think it's a talent

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Speaker 3: as much as anything. They just didn't have enough of it.

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Speaker 3: They didn't necessarily maintain the pieces that they needed, And

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Speaker 3: maybe they would have got him back if they kept him,

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Speaker 3: But I don't think it surprised anybody that he ended

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Speaker 3: up leaving.

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Speaker 1: I know you've talked in the past, Bill about teams

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Speaker 1: who move on from their coach tend to swing pretty

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Speaker 1: drastically in the other direction. So Gary Patterson defensive minded coach.

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Speaker 1: Maybe the defense hasn't been up to snuff lately, but

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Speaker 1: now it seems as if, if you believe reports, maybe

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Speaker 1: Sonny Dike's would be the next coach obviously very offensive

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Speaker 1: in his mindset when it comes to college football. Who

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Speaker 1: I mean, I know you're not breaking coaching news, but

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Speaker 1: who in your view is the kind of guy that

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Speaker 1: you should get to run that program.

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Speaker 3: I mean, it is kind of Sunny Dikes's moment right now.

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Speaker 3: And yeah, he can get a raise from SMU, he

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Speaker 3: can go to Texas Tech, he can go to TCU,

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Speaker 3: he can choose his future right now. It's a good time.

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Speaker 3: Everybody's looking for the super Texas oriented guys now and

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Speaker 3: there aren't many of those, So yeah, a great time

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Speaker 3: to be Sonny. It is going to be. I always

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Speaker 3: hate to hire the opposite of your X kind of

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Speaker 3: thing that we've talked about before, and you know, going

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Speaker 3: from Bo Polini to Mike Riley and whatnot, and how that.

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Speaker 3: I hate anything that just limits your horizons as far

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Speaker 3: as who you might hire as a replacement. And so

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Speaker 3: I would hope that they don't kind of you know,

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Speaker 3: Sunny Dyke's has a lot to offer, so maybe there's

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Speaker 3: more to it than that, but I would hope that

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Speaker 3: they're looking at just like, who can lead us into

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Speaker 3: the rest of this this this new big twelve and

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Speaker 3: all this, and I would hope they're just looking at

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Speaker 3: it from a pretty open minded standpoint. But I mean, man,

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Speaker 3: it's hard to tell. I mean, they're just it's just

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Speaker 3: basically a good job, right. You know, they've got solid

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Speaker 3: facilities that have improved massively because of Gary Patterson. They've

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Speaker 3: got Patterson did them a favor by trailing off at

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Speaker 3: the end, So it's not a straight up like succeeding

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Speaker 3: a legend and you have no chance to succeed situation.

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Speaker 3: You can go above five hundred, as you know at TCU.

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Speaker 3: But I am I am very curious what their their

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Speaker 3: approach is because they can sell a lot, not only

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Speaker 3: the facilities they're going to pony up. I'm sure to

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Speaker 3: whatever degree it's a bad thing to use for an

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Speaker 3: SMU rival, I guess. But you know, they can now

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Speaker 3: sell the fact that they're going to be in a

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Speaker 3: power conference. Technically, I think Big twelve will still be

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Speaker 3: called a considered a power conference. It should be anyway,

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Speaker 3: and they're going to be in the most open and

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Speaker 3: competitive power conference in the country. Anybody like any of

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Speaker 3: six to eight programs, when you're looking at it from

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Speaker 3: year to year, could theoretically win that and for a

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Speaker 3: power conference, that's crazy to say. So, I mean, you

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Speaker 3: can sell competition, you can sell Texas, you can sell

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Speaker 3: good facilities and money and whatever else, and it seems

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Speaker 3: like a good job to me.

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Speaker 2: We'll see yeah, no, And it's one of those things too.

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Speaker 2: And this isn't just for TCU. It's for any of

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Speaker 2: these jobs that are opening up, but especially in the

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Speaker 2: Big twelve, whatever the Big Twelve looks like moving forward.

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Speaker 2: We've seen guys now, whether it's Mike Gundy turning over

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Speaker 2: the defense to a really good defensive coordinator and seeing

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma State maintain a high level in a different way

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Speaker 2: because of defense. We've seen Iowa State emerge largely because

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Speaker 2: of defense, so they've recruited and developed good offensive players.

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Speaker 2: And the big story in terms of ascension from a

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Speaker 2: really down place has been Baylor, both with Matt Rule

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Speaker 2: and now Dave Randa trusting a defensive coordinator type to

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Speaker 2: run the team who brings in smart offensive people, which

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Speaker 2: hasn't always been the case at Oklahoma State recently is

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Speaker 2: we've had some down offense, but it seems like at

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Speaker 2: a place like TCU, it's not like there's a formula,

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Speaker 2: but we know what Gary Patterson did in being a

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Speaker 2: defensive minded dude who trust good offensive minds when TCU

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Speaker 2: is at its very best. Be it justin Flente before

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Speaker 2: when they go to the Rose Bowl, be it know

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Speaker 2: these coordinators when you look across the landscape, and especially

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Speaker 2: look at the coaches who are available, because we're going

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Speaker 2: to be looking at a sport that has maybe the

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Speaker 2: most power five jobs available in recent history. Do you

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Speaker 2: see the names that make sense for a lot of

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Speaker 2: these teams and the names being talked about, do they

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Speaker 2: fit that mold? Not necessarily of defense, but somebody who

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Speaker 2: comes in with a very specific specialty who's done a

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Speaker 2: good job of trusting a coordinat and delegating and keeping

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Speaker 2: their hands off is does that seem to be the wave?

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Speaker 2: Or am I just extrapolating here?

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Speaker 3: Well, I mean maybe that's the wave, right You can

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Speaker 3: probably maybe make a case that's the wave right now

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Speaker 3: because there isn't a distinct. You know, it's not ten

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Speaker 3: years ago where the spread is exploding, especially in Texas,

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Speaker 3: and you need to be at the front of the

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Speaker 3: train in terms of how your offense is operating. We're

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Speaker 3: in I don't know the best word for it. It's

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Speaker 3: not a lull by any means, But basically, like the

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Speaker 3: innovation that's happening now, we're into the other half of

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Speaker 3: the life cycle where you know, defenses are now adjusting

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Speaker 3: and all that. So, yeah, there might not be a

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Speaker 3: as much of a direct tactical edge to follow right

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Speaker 3: now where you can just hire this guy and you're

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Speaker 3: ahead of the game. So in that sense, yeah, maybe

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Speaker 3: it's a deal of who can legitimately run a program better,

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Speaker 3: who can trust to hire really smart assistants and develop

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Speaker 3: guys really well, and all those other things that always matter,

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Speaker 3: but maybe they matter a little more right now.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and especially when you look across the sport, there's

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Speaker 2: no right answer, right wake Forest is winning a ton

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Speaker 2: of games with big offense. That is unique. Right, This

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Speaker 2: has been a wake Forest team that has scored points

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Speaker 2: and put up yards and has struggled to put up

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Speaker 2: consistent defenses. We're seeing a Michigan State team that is

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Speaker 2: winning with strong defense and the ability to generate timely

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Speaker 2: big plays. But it's melt Tucker trusting an offense and

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Speaker 2: empowering an offense. And so when you look at the

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Speaker 2: top of the sport right now, not in terms of trends,

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Speaker 2: but in how of these and how certain teams have

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Speaker 2: become top ten according top twelve, top fifteen according to

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Speaker 2: the playoff rankings. Is there a path that you can

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Speaker 2: see that some of these top teams that who have

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Speaker 2: come out of kind of some depths, some really recent depths.

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Speaker 2: Is there a through line with any of those teams?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, wait for us is certainly an interesting one. Not

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Speaker 3: only that they are winning primarily with offense, but you

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Speaker 3: know the offense they run, those the RPOs that give

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Speaker 3: me anxiety attacks because they just stand there at the

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Speaker 3: mesh point for like eight seconds before actually doing anything.

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Speaker 3: Every time they do it, it looks wrong, it looks like

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Speaker 3: something went wrong, and then it's a forty five yard gain.

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Speaker 3: But you know that they are pretty unique in a

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Speaker 3: lot of ways. And I mean they're not for being honest,

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Speaker 3: they're not. They're you know, they're a top thirty team

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Speaker 3: in terms of, like, you know, predictive quality, they're not.

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Speaker 3: They're not a genuine title continderally it's not yet, but

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Speaker 3: but they do have a top ten offense and that's

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Speaker 3: got gotten them very far in an acc with a

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Speaker 3: sudden leadership vacuum. But I mean, I do think, you know,

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Speaker 3: it is certainly when you look at the top of

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Speaker 3: the rankings, it is a bunch of delegators, and it's

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Speaker 3: a bunch of just good program runners at the moment,

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Speaker 3: because that's I mean, Luke Fikel. Maybe you can certainly

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Speaker 3: make a case that he's doing some really really uh

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Speaker 3: you know, cutting edge things on defense, but they're certainly

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Speaker 3: not doing any on offense. And they have maybe the

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Speaker 3: best non power conference team or program right now that

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Speaker 3: has existed since Boise stayed in TCU a decade ago.

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Speaker 3: You know, not that the committee's watching them at all,

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Speaker 3: but but I mean, you know, you look at that

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Speaker 3: I'm looking through the list now, I mean, you've got

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Speaker 3: heavy duty recruiting above all else. Guys, You've got Michigan

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Speaker 3: State doing this interesting they're gonna in Michigan State again,

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Speaker 3: is better than Wake Forest, I think, but not not

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Speaker 3: top five on paper yet. So we'll see if they

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Speaker 3: can continue this or if we're just talking about something

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Speaker 3: where we're talking about them and all the amazing things

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Speaker 3: they did and then they go nine to three or something.

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Speaker 3: But yeah, I don't I mean, yeah, I don't think

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Speaker 3: there are any three lines right now, the most interesting teams,

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Speaker 3: the most different teams in the rankings right now are

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Speaker 3: all pretty different. Michigan State kind of patching together transfers

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Speaker 3: and explosiveness and the leftovers of a D'Antonio defense. You know,

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Speaker 3: Cincinnati doing what they're doing, Wake Forest playing all offense,

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Speaker 3: Oklahoma State playing all defense all of a sudden. I

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Speaker 3: don't think, necessarily think there's a three line other than

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Speaker 3: good coaches figuring out good answers.

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Speaker 2: Are you a bigger believer when you look at these teams?

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Speaker 2: You say, Michigan State's good, and they're better than Wake Forest,

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Speaker 2: but not necessarily a top five team when you look

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Speaker 2: at the underlying numbers when you watch the games, are

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Speaker 2: you are you biased towards an offense? Are you biased

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Speaker 2: towards a defense when you're looking at teams who you

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Speaker 2: believe in more thoroughly? To survive three straight months of

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Speaker 2: being inspired, well.

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Speaker 3: I think I mean this year, I don't think it

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Speaker 3: necessarily pays to be biased toward offense like maybe it

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Speaker 3: did in other years recently. But I do think I

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Speaker 3: am biased towards the teams that I know can move

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Speaker 3: the ball when they have to, Which is you know,

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Speaker 3: so Michigan not quite not quite there in terms of

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Speaker 3: you know, uh, you know, just they can move the ball,

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Speaker 3: but you know, putting the ball in the end zone

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Speaker 3: remains an issue for them when they get down their

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Speaker 3: texts A and M. Kind of the same way Cincinnati.

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Speaker 3: You know, I've been on the mountaintop yell en about

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Speaker 3: Cincinnati for a year now, and they still have these

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Speaker 3: little offensive funks that scare the crap out of me sometimes.

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Speaker 3: We've seen them the last two weeks. So I definitely

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Speaker 3: you can win with defense, and it's amazing. There were

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Speaker 3: some really really fun defenses to watch this year. But

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Speaker 3: I need to trust your offense a little more just

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Speaker 3: to do certain things. And Georgia is such a weird

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Speaker 3: spot right now. They're eighth an offensive SPPLUS and I

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Speaker 3: still don't know if we can trust Georgia's offense because

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Speaker 3: you have to be able to score thirty plus points

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Speaker 3: on their defense. And maybe two teams in FBS can

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Speaker 3: do that this year. They won't play one of them

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Speaker 3: until the SEC Championship and they wouldn't play the other

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Speaker 3: until maybe the playoff. In Ohio State, there's a.

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Speaker 2: Team who arguably is one of the more fascinating teams

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Speaker 2: when you take into account their on field performance, the

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Speaker 2: drama involved in the end of their games, and the

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Speaker 2: fact that they finish exclusively playing good teams. And I've

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Speaker 2: actually seen multiple pieces this week talking about underlying numbers

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Speaker 2: and how confounding the underlying numbers are. And that's the

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Speaker 2: Nebraska Cornhuskers. Okay, they finished with Ohio State, Iowa, and Wisconsin.

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Speaker 2: They have feeled a defense that cannot be described as

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Speaker 2: any thing less than good. It's a good defense, right,

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Speaker 2: They make plays and an offense that generates big plays

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Speaker 2: that the underlying numbers actually like a lot about this offense,

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Speaker 2: and yet they're three and six. My question to you

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Speaker 2: is describe in detail to whatever extent you can why,

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Speaker 2: And also are there any other teams that should be

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Speaker 2: clearly better than their record indicates, and whether you have

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Speaker 2: the second order win stat and everything like that. But

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Speaker 2: there is there even a team comparable to what Nebraska

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Speaker 2: has done this year in terms of they seem good

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Speaker 2: but they don't win.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you ever want to talk about intangibles?

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Speaker 3: Obviously as a as a stats person, I'm supposed to

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Speaker 3: hate that word and everything, right, But if you ever

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Speaker 3: want to talk about the existence of intangibles, like Nebraska

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Speaker 3: right now is the ultimate example, because they do. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they three top three current playoff top ten teams. They

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Speaker 3: lost by seven points, three points and three points, and

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Speaker 3: you know, Minnesota's smoking hot. They lost by seven points.

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Speaker 3: Easily could have won that game Perdue I mean, well,

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Speaker 3: I mean PERDUEVI in Iowa at the least, even if

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Speaker 3: they haven't been all that consistent, and yeah, in Oregon State,

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Speaker 3: so they would be a Pack twelve contender right now,

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Speaker 3: and and and they It took a lot for Nebraska

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Speaker 3: to not win that game. But that's been the case

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Speaker 3: every single game they've lost this year. And when you

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Speaker 3: watch it play out with you know, granted the special

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Speaker 3: team's era has changed from week to week, there is that,

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Speaker 3: but they always make special teams aras at the wrong time.

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Speaker 3: And Adrian Martinez, for all of the obvious explosiveness he

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Speaker 3: has and the really the solid across the board stat

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Speaker 3: line he has this year, you know he's gonna throw

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Speaker 3: a pick or drop the ball out of the blue

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Speaker 3: like he did against Michigan, and it's none of that

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Speaker 3: should be sustainable. But when you see it six times

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Speaker 3: in nine games, plus all the close games they lost

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Speaker 3: in previous years. I mean, it's hard to it's really

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Speaker 3: and I'm really curious what Nebraska does here, because on

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Speaker 3: one hand, you could easily say, do you remember Matt

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Speaker 3: Wells at Utah State? You could easily say that this

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Speaker 3: is shaping up to be a Matt well situation where

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Speaker 3: they you know, he takes over for Gary Anderson does

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Speaker 3: well for a minute and then just hits reset, builds

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Speaker 3: his program his way, loses an incredible number of close

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Speaker 3: games in a row. I don't even remember what it was,

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Speaker 3: nine or ten, maybe something like that. They go three

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Speaker 3: and nine in sixteen, they go six and seven and

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Speaker 3: twenty seventeen, and then they go eleven and two and

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Speaker 3: twenty eighteen because they both operated better in close games

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Speaker 3: and were good enough to avoid close games altogether, which

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Speaker 3: I don't think Nebraska is gover going to be that

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Speaker 3: good in a conference as good as the Big Ten.

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Speaker 3: But there's nothing saying this has to continue. But there's

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Speaker 3: also nothing saying that the next guy is not going

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Speaker 3: to get due better. Like if you with what Scott

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Speaker 3: Frost has built, you'd feel kind of bad about not

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Speaker 3: letting him kind of see it through. But at the

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Speaker 3: same time, if you're hiring, if you decide to to

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Speaker 3: change coaches, a lot of guys could walk right in

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Speaker 3: the door and hear at a very good program and maybe

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Speaker 3: do more with them. And so, like I think, if

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Speaker 3: I'm the athletic director at this stage, which is the

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Speaker 3: first time I've ever said the words there, if I'm

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Speaker 3: Trent Alberts, but like that's I don't know. I think

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Speaker 3: I would probably be leaning toward a change at this point.

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Speaker 3: But if you wanted to keep him in commit and

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Speaker 3: maybe make sure he's got what he needs from a

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Speaker 3: special team's coaching standpoint, I think you could certainly make

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Speaker 3: the case that it would cost you less, You wouldn't

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Speaker 3: have to have a buy out or anything like that,

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Speaker 3: and it might might pay off as soon as next year.

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Speaker 2: Should also add by the way, Syracuse is like three

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Speaker 2: minutes away from being nine to zero like that, it's

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Speaker 2: a very strange thing. But in terms of like their

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Speaker 2: Florida State wake Forest and who they lost to Rutgers,

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Speaker 2: I think early on, like their actual margin of losing

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Speaker 2: and their their year of scoring is they are like

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Speaker 2: a very long glass of water away.

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Speaker 3: From being undefeat So I just looked at the second

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Speaker 3: order wins for the year, and this is of course

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Speaker 3: the you know, with my postgame win expectancy number. You know,

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Speaker 3: I have to I feel I have to do the

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Speaker 3: quick background at all times, so I have a postgame

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Speaker 3: win expectancy where you know, you basically take a lot

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Speaker 3: of the stats that go into sp plus and you say,

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Speaker 3: you know, toss them up in the air, and you say, okay,

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Speaker 3: with these stats, you could have expected to win this

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Speaker 3: game x percent of the time, like Cal Davis versus

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Speaker 3: Tulsa earlier this year was like ninety nine percent Tulsa.

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Speaker 3: But we found we got to witness the one percent

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Speaker 3: of you see Davis winning that game. If you add

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Speaker 3: those percentages up, you kind of get a second order

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Speaker 3: win total kind of number where you know you can

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Speaker 3: see that. For instance, Nebraska, their their second order win

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Speaker 3: total this year is five point seven, which means that

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Speaker 3: sp plus kind of envisions sees them as a five

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Speaker 3: and four or six and three team, not three and

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Speaker 3: six some of the other outliers. Right now, Western Kentucky

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Speaker 3: should be six and two right now, not four and four.

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Speaker 3: Their win total, or their second order win total is

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Speaker 3: six point one, so they're two and over, two wins

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Speaker 3: below where they should be. Marshall should be about seven

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Speaker 3: and one, not five and three. And then you've got

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Speaker 3: some bad teams like Ohio should at least have two

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Speaker 3: or three wins, not one. Arizona should probably have one

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Speaker 3: or two wins, not zero. But those are the main Nebraska, Western,

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Speaker 3: Kentucky and Marshall are the ones that stand out on

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Speaker 3: that end. The other end, you've got Utah State, ironically enough, yeah,

432
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:30,280
Speaker 3: it should probably be about three and five right now,

433
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 3: they're two point nine wins ahead of where the stats

434
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:36,520
Speaker 3: think they should be at six and two. Northern Illinois

435
00:22:36,560 --> 00:22:38,840
Speaker 3: with their little this doesn't include last night's game, but

436
00:22:39,160 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 3: with their incredible run of comeback wins, they were six

437
00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:44,560
Speaker 3: and two probably should have been about four and four.

438
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:48,399
Speaker 3: And our friends wake Forest really probably should have been

439
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,239
Speaker 3: about six and two and not eight to no right now.

440
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:51,680
Speaker 3: But it's a lot more fun that they're eight no

441
00:22:51,840 --> 00:22:52,080
Speaker 3: right now.

442
00:22:52,119 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 1: Definitely, that is a perfect setup bill to my next question.

443
00:22:57,240 --> 00:23:00,640
Speaker 1: All Right, the other elephant in the room is that

444
00:23:00,680 --> 00:23:03,480
Speaker 1: we had the first round of college football playoff rankings

445
00:23:03,520 --> 00:23:07,919
Speaker 1: revealed on Tuesday. Evening your top ten, I'll just recite

446
00:23:07,920 --> 00:23:09,960
Speaker 1: it here for anyone listening along in the car or

447
00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 1: at home. Georgia, Alabama, Michigan State, Oregon. That's your top four,

448
00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:19,440
Speaker 1: followed by Ohio State at five, Cincinnati at six, Michigan

449
00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:24,480
Speaker 1: at seven, Oklahoma at eight, the previously afore mentioned Wake

450
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: Forest demon Deacons at number nine, and Notre Dame at

451
00:23:28,400 --> 00:23:33,360
Speaker 1: number ten, So really high level. Obviously, these rankings put

452
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: you in a very difficult situation. I'm sure people come

453
00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 1: screaming to you, Bill, based on what you saw from

454
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 1: the committee in this first batch. What did you agree with?

455
00:23:42,480 --> 00:23:44,000
Speaker 1: What did you not agree with?

456
00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:49,679
Speaker 3: Well, I don't agree with the apparent assumption that losses

457
00:23:49,720 --> 00:23:57,000
Speaker 3: shouldn't count. That this is the first time a team

458
00:23:57,040 --> 00:24:00,240
Speaker 3: with a loss has ranked in the top two the

459
00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,919
Speaker 3: first rankings in a given year. I have no idea

460
00:24:03,920 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 3: why Alabama is, Like, the only way Alabama should be

461
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,119
Speaker 3: second is if we really don't care that they lost

462
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 3: a game, And I mean, we're picking four teams like

463
00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:15,080
Speaker 3: it feels like losses should actually matter and that you know,

464
00:24:15,160 --> 00:24:17,359
Speaker 3: we should still be giving preference to the teams that

465
00:24:17,400 --> 00:24:19,919
Speaker 3: don't have them, And that was not the case at all.

466
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,479
Speaker 3: When you look at three one loss teams in the

467
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,200
Speaker 3: top five and then three unbeaten teams between six through nine.

468
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 3: I mean, among other things, it puts the committee in

469
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:31,160
Speaker 3: a really weird spot. I know that, you know, we

470
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,560
Speaker 3: we do it from scratch every single week and all that,

471
00:24:33,600 --> 00:24:36,359
Speaker 3: but I mean, if you look at you know, a

472
00:24:36,400 --> 00:24:38,080
Speaker 3: lot of teams winning out that are in the top

473
00:24:38,080 --> 00:24:42,240
Speaker 3: ten right now, are we going to have eleven and two,

474
00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:45,800
Speaker 3: Alabama fourth and then like thirteen and oh out our

475
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 3: Oklahoma fifth and thirteen and no Cincinnati six and thirteen

476
00:24:49,440 --> 00:24:52,479
Speaker 3: and oh eight four, seventh? Like why are we playing games?

477
00:24:52,800 --> 00:24:55,560
Speaker 3: And I always feel funny at this time of year

478
00:24:55,600 --> 00:24:57,600
Speaker 3: because you know, I get told watch the games NERD

479
00:24:57,640 --> 00:24:59,520
Speaker 3: all the time, get your head out of the spreadsheets,

480
00:24:59,560 --> 00:25:03,560
Speaker 3: but like it feels like a lot of this stuff

481
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:07,639
Speaker 3: happens on spreadsheets, and you know, like, sorry, I realized

482
00:25:07,640 --> 00:25:09,640
Speaker 3: what I'm talking to right now, Like Oregon being ahead

483
00:25:09,640 --> 00:25:11,679
Speaker 3: of Ohio State despite the fact that they've looked like

484
00:25:11,680 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 3: a top four team once all year. It really was

485
00:25:14,920 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 3: like Ohio States here, So we have to put Oregon

486
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:20,440
Speaker 3: one step above them, and that's great. You know, if

487
00:25:20,480 --> 00:25:22,399
Speaker 3: they don't start looking better, they're not going to get

488
00:25:22,440 --> 00:25:24,320
Speaker 3: to twelve. And one and it won't matter. But they

489
00:25:24,400 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 3: kind of if they if they play like a top

490
00:25:27,760 --> 00:25:29,960
Speaker 3: five team moving forward, they're you know, that's great, they're

491
00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,159
Speaker 3: in a good position. But I did I wouldn't have

492
00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 3: put I wouldn't have put them there. So I don't

493
00:25:35,960 --> 00:25:38,840
Speaker 3: it was it was just kind of I don't know.

494
00:25:38,920 --> 00:25:40,960
Speaker 3: This is really hard, and I understand it's hard. It is.

495
00:25:41,040 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 3: But when you look at this these rankings, you see

496
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,960
Speaker 3: Alabama second, and you see that. You know when they

497
00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,800
Speaker 3: say we picked the best teams, not the most deserving,

498
00:25:48,920 --> 00:25:51,119
Speaker 3: it's about best best best, Well, that makes sense that

499
00:25:51,160 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 3: Alabama's second to the end, But you can't justify putting

500
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:55,879
Speaker 3: Michigan State third if if you're only looking at best.

501
00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:58,919
Speaker 3: You can't really justify organ putting an organ fourth if

502
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,920
Speaker 3: you're just looking at best. So it is this really

503
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:06,119
Speaker 3: hard mix of resume and quality and head to head,

504
00:26:06,320 --> 00:26:11,400
Speaker 3: and I mean, I kinda I disagree with a lot

505
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:13,280
Speaker 3: of it. I'll just say, so, what would your four be?

506
00:26:13,400 --> 00:26:16,800
Speaker 2: What would your four be based on the mix of

507
00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 2: I test, resume, underlying numbers.

508
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,560
Speaker 3: Well, we do a quick little thing at the end

509
00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:23,560
Speaker 3: of every Saturday night at ESPN where we all just

510
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:25,160
Speaker 3: put in our top four, and I think the top

511
00:26:25,200 --> 00:26:31,840
Speaker 3: four I had last week was Georgia, Michigan State, Cincinnati,

512
00:26:31,880 --> 00:26:35,280
Speaker 3: Oklahoma just unbeatens across the board basically, like eventually, I

513
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:38,000
Speaker 3: understand like when Alabama, if they get to twelve and

514
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:40,000
Speaker 3: zero and they are twelve and one and they beat Georgia,

515
00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:43,679
Speaker 3: other than fine, they're probably top four. But I just

516
00:26:43,720 --> 00:26:47,120
Speaker 3: cannot justify putting a one lost team that high right now.

517
00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 3: The more I think about it, I mean, I think

518
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:51,440
Speaker 3: you could absolutely justify Cincinnati being ahead of Michigan State

519
00:26:52,359 --> 00:26:54,800
Speaker 3: just from the perspective of number one. If it's the

520
00:26:54,840 --> 00:26:57,399
Speaker 3: best thing there. They rank higher and s people as

521
00:26:57,440 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 3: they rank higher, and FPI they've been a better team

522
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:02,560
Speaker 3: top to bottom, even if they've kind of they've fallen

523
00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 3: into funks offensively the last couple of weeks, and then

524
00:27:05,280 --> 00:27:08,280
Speaker 3: they have a better top win, I mean, beating Michigan

525
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: slightly at home versus beating Notre Dame handily on the road.

526
00:27:12,560 --> 00:27:15,440
Speaker 3: Cincinnati has the top win too, so I would have

527
00:27:15,520 --> 00:27:17,200
Speaker 3: no problem ranking.

528
00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:19,840
Speaker 2: And the better win, by the way, better win against

529
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: a common opponent in India.

530
00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right, that's right. Yeah, I forgot about the

531
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 3: Michigan State has already played them too, yeah, twenty fifteen

532
00:27:27,359 --> 00:27:30,600
Speaker 3: or whatever, So yeah, I wouldn't mind that at all.

533
00:27:31,160 --> 00:27:34,400
Speaker 3: Ranking the unbeatens, I would put a Georgia, Cincinnati, Michigan State,

534
00:27:34,440 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 3: Oklahoma wake for us. That's fine. And then it just

535
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 3: becomes like with the one loss teams, and I know

536
00:27:40,040 --> 00:27:44,399
Speaker 3: I'm different about this, and that's that's fine, but it

537
00:27:44,400 --> 00:27:46,040
Speaker 3: really just comes down to if you've lost, if you

538
00:27:46,040 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 3: don't have that the ability to say, like, we we

539
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:51,119
Speaker 3: get to play until we lose a game because we

540
00:27:51,119 --> 00:27:53,200
Speaker 3: haven't lost one yet, then it really just comes down

541
00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,480
Speaker 3: to how how awesome, how frequently awesome have you looked?

542
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:02,600
Speaker 3: And Alabama or Ohio State be either in either order

543
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:05,679
Speaker 3: there at the top to me. And after that, like

544
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:07,919
Speaker 3: I think you could make the case for Michigan and

545
00:28:08,040 --> 00:28:13,040
Speaker 3: Notre Dame ahead of Oregon at the very least just

546
00:28:13,080 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 3: for how consistently good they've looked, and then it's up

547
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 3: to you how you match those together, I guess, but

548
00:28:19,240 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 3: you know, to me, I would still be looking at Georgia, Cincinnati,

549
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,360
Speaker 3: Michigan State, and either if not Oklahoma at that point,

550
00:28:26,440 --> 00:28:28,400
Speaker 3: then then Alabama or Ohio State.

551
00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 2: I guess, Toledo hasn't had a shot at Oregon yet. Right,

552
00:28:30,400 --> 00:28:32,400
Speaker 2: we already know they can keep it close against Notre Dame,

553
00:28:32,680 --> 00:28:36,560
Speaker 2: So right, who knows what Toledo could do against who knows? Bill?

554
00:28:36,720 --> 00:28:39,200
Speaker 1: We mentioned it on the last interview did with you

555
00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:44,920
Speaker 1: the two thousand and seven ing purportedly of the twenty

556
00:28:45,000 --> 00:28:47,400
Speaker 1: twenty one season, we have seen a lot of chaos.

557
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:50,719
Speaker 1: Dan and I have all sorts of theories as to why.

558
00:28:51,000 --> 00:28:54,080
Speaker 1: One of our leading theories is just that there is

559
00:28:54,120 --> 00:28:57,920
Speaker 1: so much instability at quarterback. What you've seen to some

560
00:28:58,080 --> 00:29:01,479
Speaker 1: extent at Oklahoma is obviously not the norm, but there

561
00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 1: are plenty of programs out there that just can't really

562
00:29:03,680 --> 00:29:06,680
Speaker 1: get that quarterback spot sorted out, and it's produced some

563
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 1: very interesting results. How close are we now as we

564
00:29:09,760 --> 00:29:13,840
Speaker 1: enter into the month of November to seeing full on chaos?

565
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:16,840
Speaker 1: And by full on chaos I mean my personal dream

566
00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:21,440
Speaker 1: scenario where you've got Alabama losing to Georgia, You've got

567
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: the Big ten East cannibalizing itself, We've got Oklahoma getting

568
00:29:26,120 --> 00:29:29,000
Speaker 1: a loss along the way, which is entirely possible given

569
00:29:29,040 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 1: their schedule yep, and then we are left with a

570
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:36,200
Speaker 1: very uncomfortable spot for the committee whereby Cincinnati is unbeaten

571
00:29:36,560 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 1: and wake Forest is unbeaten. What is your dream chaos

572
00:29:40,640 --> 00:29:43,239
Speaker 1: scenario at this point and how realistic is it?

573
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,160
Speaker 3: I mean, I think I've certainly grown a little less

574
00:29:48,160 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 3: confident in chaos over the last couple of weeks. Now, granted,

575
00:29:50,880 --> 00:29:52,880
Speaker 3: Ohio State didn'tok quite as good as I expected them

576
00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 3: too against Penn State, or maybe the opposite. Maybe Penn

577
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,360
Speaker 3: State just looked really good. I don't know, but that

578
00:29:58,400 --> 00:30:00,800
Speaker 3: game was closer than I really antis paid it being,

579
00:30:00,880 --> 00:30:03,360
Speaker 3: and so I was, you know, especially with the red

580
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:05,840
Speaker 3: zone troubles that Ohio State had in that game. And

581
00:30:05,840 --> 00:30:09,840
Speaker 3: that's been kind of the defining factor for everybody this

582
00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:11,720
Speaker 3: season is how well do you do in the red

583
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,520
Speaker 3: zone and how well do you defend the red zone?

584
00:30:13,520 --> 00:30:16,240
Speaker 3: Because Georgia doesn't do all that well in the red zone,

585
00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:19,280
Speaker 3: they could easily fall into a Michigan scenario of settling

586
00:30:19,280 --> 00:30:21,880
Speaker 3: for field goals. I mean, you could have, what twenty

587
00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:24,080
Speaker 3: seven minutes into the Florida game, you could talk yourself

588
00:30:24,120 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 3: into a Georgia's messing around and could find themselves in

589
00:30:26,920 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 3: trouble kind of scenario until they until they were no

590
00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:33,040
Speaker 3: longer in trouble, I guess, but you know, o High

591
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,520
Speaker 3: State struggled in the red zone that game, Georgia struggled

592
00:30:37,120 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 3: against Florida, like Michigan obviously struggles in the red zone.

593
00:30:40,440 --> 00:30:43,800
Speaker 3: That has been one of the underlying factors. But I

594
00:30:43,840 --> 00:30:46,520
Speaker 3: just think at this point, like for all, I can

595
00:30:46,560 --> 00:30:48,960
Speaker 3: complain about Alabama ranking as high as they do and

596
00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,160
Speaker 3: Ohio State ranking as high as they do right now, well,

597
00:30:52,160 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 3: I guess I didn't complain about Ohio State as much,

598
00:30:53,920 --> 00:30:57,120
Speaker 3: but they're really good. And there have been three teams

599
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:00,160
Speaker 3: that have stood out from the pack this season, and

600
00:31:01,560 --> 00:31:04,320
Speaker 3: you're seeing it in like sp plus where Ohio State

601
00:31:04,320 --> 00:31:07,360
Speaker 3: and Georgia are above twenty nine, Alabama's at twenty six

602
00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 3: point seven, nobody else is above twenty one point one.

603
00:31:10,040 --> 00:31:13,800
Speaker 3: Like the stratification there is clear, So I would assume

604
00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 3: Ohio State, like I feel pretty comfortable thinking Ohio State

605
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:21,560
Speaker 3: wins out at this point. Georgia, I'm curs, Well, we'll

606
00:31:21,560 --> 00:31:25,440
Speaker 3: see about Georgia Alabama, but I do think well, number one,

607
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,520
Speaker 3: I think Wake Forest loses anyway, so it doesn't matter.

608
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:33,479
Speaker 3: I think Ohio Oklahoma needs their typical November magic, otherwise

609
00:31:33,480 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 3: they're going to lose as well. And I think we're

610
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:39,480
Speaker 3: probably kind of cruising towards a pretty comfortable Georgia, Alabama,

611
00:31:39,520 --> 00:31:42,760
Speaker 3: Ohio State and one other team scenario. And apparently that

612
00:31:42,760 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 3: team's not going to be Cincinnati no matter what, So

613
00:31:44,560 --> 00:31:45,800
Speaker 3: I don't know what team that might be.

614
00:31:46,680 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: Bill.

615
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:51,560
Speaker 2: You don't wager on games, but you track things should

616
00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:55,479
Speaker 2: you wager on games via sp plus And it's extremely volatile,

617
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 2: as all things wagering are right, that you'll hit weirdly,

618
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,920
Speaker 2: like seventy three in an early window and then forty

619
00:32:02,520 --> 00:32:03,240
Speaker 2: in a late window.

620
00:32:03,320 --> 00:32:03,640
Speaker 3: Whatever.

621
00:32:04,360 --> 00:32:07,320
Speaker 2: What have you learned this year about both sp plus

622
00:32:07,400 --> 00:32:10,480
Speaker 2: as relates to the spread and or over hunders. I

623
00:32:10,520 --> 00:32:14,600
Speaker 2: don't know how detailed you measure things with regard to wagering.

624
00:32:15,080 --> 00:32:18,560
Speaker 2: And now that we are ten weeks in, if you

625
00:32:18,600 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 2: are handed one thousand dollars and said, here's what I'm

626
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:26,000
Speaker 2: going to do with this money based on what I

627
00:32:26,040 --> 00:32:29,120
Speaker 2: know about the sport this year, what would you do?

628
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,600
Speaker 3: Well? First of all, I've definitely learned that you know,

629
00:32:36,160 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: you know, I was told a couple of years ago

630
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:39,480
Speaker 3: at some point in you know, spplus moves the lines

631
00:32:39,520 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 3: blah blah blah. I never know how seriously to take that.

632
00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 3: But every single week that goes by a higher percentage

633
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:50,440
Speaker 3: of games with the midweek spread is within about three

634
00:32:50,480 --> 00:32:55,480
Speaker 3: points of SP plus. And what that means is there's

635
00:32:55,640 --> 00:32:57,760
Speaker 3: there's a little edge with spplus. If if the line's

636
00:32:57,760 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 3: going to basically be excuse me, if the line's going

637
00:32:59,600 --> 00:33:02,880
Speaker 3: to basically be injury adjusted sp plus, it makes it

638
00:33:02,960 --> 00:33:06,720
Speaker 3: awfully hard to beat. And so you know it's performing

639
00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 3: considering how much we didn't know about how the preseason

640
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:12,640
Speaker 3: projections would pan out and everything. You know, having a

641
00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:16,480
Speaker 3: game to game error rate, which is kind of the

642
00:33:16,480 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 3: way you evaluate your system outside of how it's doing

643
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 3: against the spread. You know it's under thirteen points per game,

644
00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:25,880
Speaker 3: which is if you look at Prediction Tracker like that's

645
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:29,400
Speaker 3: that's very high level. So I think it's performing really well.

646
00:33:29,640 --> 00:33:33,000
Speaker 3: It was at like twelve point four back in twenty

647
00:33:33,080 --> 00:33:36,760
Speaker 3: nineteen before stupidity and chaos and everything hit after that.

648
00:33:37,280 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 3: But it's it's clearing the bar I wanted to clear,

649
00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 3: and it's performing really well. In the last two weeks,

650
00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:44,760
Speaker 3: it's gone forty four forty six percent against the spread

651
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 3: because the spread is right there next to it, and

652
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:52,640
Speaker 3: you're just basically flipping coins. So I mean, whatever that means,

653
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 3: it makes the lines very hard to beat. You've seen

654
00:33:54,960 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 3: a lot of pretty high level handicappers and whatnot really

655
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,800
Speaker 3: really struggling with college football this year. Not our friend

656
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:04,160
Speaker 3: Bud Elliott, not.

657
00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:07,000
Speaker 2: But Jeff Schwartz by the way he went. He was

658
00:34:07,040 --> 00:34:09,239
Speaker 2: like fifteen and four with the Pack twelve at a

659
00:34:09,280 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 2: certain run. But that's all he does, you know, he

660
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 2: just studies the Pac twelve all the time. He's on

661
00:34:12,520 --> 00:34:15,080
Speaker 2: Pack twelve radio and he makes public picks whatever. And

662
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:17,279
Speaker 2: that's when you obviously bet against somebody when they go

663
00:34:17,280 --> 00:34:18,160
Speaker 2: on a run like that.

664
00:34:18,160 --> 00:34:22,239
Speaker 3: That's right, as we know, there is a mean yeah, no,

665
00:34:22,320 --> 00:34:24,759
Speaker 3: I mean there's certainly money out there to be one still.

666
00:34:24,760 --> 00:34:26,920
Speaker 3: But if you want me to feel as comfortable as

667
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 3: possible betting a thousand dollars at this stage, I think

668
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:31,440
Speaker 3: I would just stick to the like betting over on

669
00:34:31,520 --> 00:34:33,600
Speaker 3: most of the games where the point total is like forty,

670
00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:35,479
Speaker 3: betting under a most of the games where the point

671
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:37,480
Speaker 3: totals like seventy five, and just riding with that.

672
00:34:37,920 --> 00:34:41,799
Speaker 2: And it's so I have a couple of demands on

673
00:34:41,840 --> 00:34:43,920
Speaker 2: this as well. So one of the things that I noticed,

674
00:34:44,040 --> 00:34:48,239
Speaker 2: and it's not statistically significant. But my belief system after

675
00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:49,719
Speaker 2: six or seven weeks, when I was looking at the

676
00:34:49,719 --> 00:34:53,600
Speaker 2: teams who had performed well against the spread, was and

677
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,840
Speaker 2: I'm able to look at some of these numbers, is

678
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 2: the teams who have been recently dis pointing, who have

679
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,719
Speaker 2: turned things around on defense, especially as it relates to

680
00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,280
Speaker 2: stopping big plays and rushing the passer, have performed especially well.

681
00:35:08,719 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 2: I'm not asking you, I'm not demanding you tell me

682
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,319
Speaker 2: that this is the correct way to approach wagering, because

683
00:35:13,320 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 2: there is no correct approach to wagering, but in the

684
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,160
Speaker 2: way that your five factors that you looked at, like

685
00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:20,200
Speaker 2: these are the five factors that affect winning the most.

686
00:35:20,239 --> 00:35:22,239
Speaker 2: And it's right. It's winning the explosive play battle, it's

687
00:35:22,280 --> 00:35:26,200
Speaker 2: turnover margin, et cetera, et cetera. Have you done models,

688
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:31,200
Speaker 2: have you run exercises looking at various elements of your

689
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:35,680
Speaker 2: sp plus and measuring that against teams who succeed against

690
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 2: the spread. Is I mean, maybe you're just going to

691
00:35:38,200 --> 00:35:39,919
Speaker 2: say no, And so then my follow up question is moot,

692
00:35:40,000 --> 00:35:43,799
Speaker 2: But is there anything there? Because I think that's that's

693
00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,840
Speaker 2: the magic bullet essentially, right that in terms of wagering

694
00:35:46,840 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 2: and advanced stats. That's the you know, if you're hitting

695
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,080
Speaker 2: on seventy one percent, you're a billionaire.

696
00:35:52,080 --> 00:35:55,359
Speaker 3: Right, Yeah, if you're an on seventy one percent, give

697
00:35:55,400 --> 00:35:59,000
Speaker 3: me a call. But like, yeah, it's just so hard

698
00:35:59,040 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: with It's always going to be with college football because

699
00:36:02,520 --> 00:36:04,640
Speaker 3: in no other sport on the planet would we think

700
00:36:04,680 --> 00:36:07,279
Speaker 3: of two games as a trend for anything, right, And

701
00:36:07,320 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 3: we almost were so desperate to figure out trends. We

702
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:12,160
Speaker 3: almost don't have a choice but to treat them like

703
00:36:12,200 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 3: a trend in college football because that's us one sixth

704
00:36:14,719 --> 00:36:19,719
Speaker 3: of the season. Yes, And so what happens is you

705
00:36:19,800 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 3: end up kind of following trends along, and you know,

706
00:36:22,040 --> 00:36:23,880
Speaker 3: the teams that are improving, you hop on them, and

707
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 3: then they disappoint and so on and so forth. I

708
00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:28,600
Speaker 3: don't know if there's any magic bullet as far as

709
00:36:30,040 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 3: I mean, it would makes sense that, you know, if

710
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 3: your defense, like in Oklahoma last year, was having terrible

711
00:36:34,960 --> 00:36:37,160
Speaker 3: big play issues and then stopped having big play issues,

712
00:36:37,200 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 3: then suddenly you know you're getting an extra three four

713
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:43,560
Speaker 3: points there of value. But it's really hard other than

714
00:36:43,640 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 3: person really really really closely tracking personnel changes, I don't

715
00:36:49,560 --> 00:36:52,239
Speaker 3: know if there's anything else from a statistical standpoint that

716
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:56,320
Speaker 3: would really bear out nationwide. But I mean the personnel changes,

717
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:00,600
Speaker 3: like oh, your last year getting Perkins back mid season

718
00:37:00,640 --> 00:37:03,040
Speaker 3: and suddenly being twice the defense like that, that kind

719
00:37:03,080 --> 00:37:06,239
Speaker 3: of tracks and you could probably find some value in

720
00:37:06,320 --> 00:37:06,719
Speaker 3: that way.

721
00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:11,399
Speaker 2: But which is why Bud crowdsources injury is I love

722
00:37:11,400 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 2: that he's doing that.

723
00:37:12,280 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, because we somehow in college football, like every year

724
00:37:16,480 --> 00:37:20,000
Speaker 3: that goes by, we have less injury information. That is,

725
00:37:20,360 --> 00:37:23,279
Speaker 3: you know, at the NFL level, they got to you know,

726
00:37:23,320 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 3: report this and they got to be relatively semi honest

727
00:37:26,160 --> 00:37:29,960
Speaker 3: about injuries and whatnot. And now like every single year

728
00:37:29,960 --> 00:37:33,920
Speaker 3: that goes by, fewer coaches share depth charts because god forbid,

729
00:37:34,080 --> 00:37:34,840
Speaker 3: Like that's.

730
00:37:35,360 --> 00:37:38,680
Speaker 2: You know, got a professional gambler. Here's what you do.

731
00:37:38,920 --> 00:37:42,040
Speaker 2: Here's here's my plan for you. Go to every single

732
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:46,360
Speaker 2: strength and conditioning conference and befriend as many humans as possible.

733
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:48,879
Speaker 2: That's the actual is that not the move?

734
00:37:49,719 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, being able to trust high level sources as to

735
00:37:54,520 --> 00:37:57,680
Speaker 3: whether player A is playing or not and how player

736
00:37:57,760 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 3: B is coming along, Like that's going to be your

737
00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:02,759
Speaker 3: best way to figure out because I mean, yeah, like

738
00:38:03,520 --> 00:38:06,759
Speaker 3: sometimes three games is really an honest trend and things

739
00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 3: and everything is looking up or down for a given school,

740
00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:12,319
Speaker 3: and sometimes it's absolute noise and garbage. And the only

741
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:13,680
Speaker 3: way you're going to know is to know how the

742
00:38:13,719 --> 00:38:15,080
Speaker 3: personnel is behind the scenes.

743
00:38:16,239 --> 00:38:18,719
Speaker 1: Bill, let me close out my round of questioning with this.

744
00:38:19,520 --> 00:38:22,680
Speaker 1: We've talked a lot about Cincinnati. I want to go

745
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,640
Speaker 1: a little bit deeper into the future and talk about

746
00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:29,759
Speaker 1: next week with regard to Cincinnati. The city of Cincinnati

747
00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:34,120
Speaker 1: hosting a rather big soccer qualifying matchup between the United

748
00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,799
Speaker 1: States or United States and l Tree Mexico. That game

749
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,680
Speaker 1: being played in TQL Stadium, which is apparently a thing,

750
00:38:40,800 --> 00:38:44,640
Speaker 1: but I did not know about. How are you feeling

751
00:38:44,920 --> 00:38:47,279
Speaker 1: about that game? What are your numbers saying? Like? What

752
00:38:47,320 --> 00:38:50,120
Speaker 1: do I need to do? We need to talk privately about,

753
00:38:50,640 --> 00:38:52,319
Speaker 1: you know, how we feel about this game and this

754
00:38:52,400 --> 00:38:56,680
Speaker 1: window of qualifying. Where are we at here with status?

755
00:38:57,280 --> 00:39:01,280
Speaker 3: I'm not gonna claim to feel great. Yeah, it doesn't

756
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:04,920
Speaker 3: matter if they beat Jamaica after that, it doesn't matter

757
00:39:05,000 --> 00:39:07,560
Speaker 3: whether what happens in this game, at least not really.

758
00:39:08,280 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 3: But but yeah, like among other things, there were a

759
00:39:12,120 --> 00:39:15,360
Speaker 3: lot of good feelings derived from two Summer two matches

760
00:39:15,400 --> 00:39:17,480
Speaker 3: over the summer in which US had none of the

761
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:21,239
Speaker 3: ball and really shouldn't have won either game, but had

762
00:39:21,320 --> 00:39:25,120
Speaker 3: great goalkeeping and and just a couple of perfect scoring

763
00:39:25,200 --> 00:39:28,720
Speaker 3: maneuvers and therefore beat Mexico twice, and everybody was feeling

764
00:39:28,719 --> 00:39:30,680
Speaker 3: great about the US. Again, they really weren't the better

765
00:39:30,680 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 3: team in either in either game. They haven't been the

766
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 3: better team in qualifying. So I don't I don't feel amazing.

767
00:39:36,680 --> 00:39:38,719
Speaker 3: It would be it would be spectacular if they could

768
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,840
Speaker 3: ever more than once in the history of these players

769
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:45,319
Speaker 3: have their five most exciting and probably best players on

770
00:39:45,360 --> 00:39:49,920
Speaker 3: the field at the same time. Pulisic, Raina, Adams, McKinny

771
00:39:50,040 --> 00:39:54,440
Speaker 3: Desk have played together once ever and they you know,

772
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,640
Speaker 3: they have the present and future of the America, of

773
00:39:56,680 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 3: the US national team, and they and they're not going

774
00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:00,399
Speaker 3: to be on the field the same time this time

775
00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 3: because Raina and dest are now out, McKinney has been

776
00:40:03,200 --> 00:40:05,719
Speaker 3: in and out, Polistic has been out, the Polisic's back

777
00:40:05,760 --> 00:40:07,879
Speaker 3: and now you know, Death is out instead, So that's

778
00:40:07,880 --> 00:40:10,640
Speaker 3: really annoying. It would be amazing to actually see your

779
00:40:10,640 --> 00:40:12,239
Speaker 3: best team on the field all at the same time,

780
00:40:12,719 --> 00:40:15,160
Speaker 3: but without it, I don't really think the US is

781
00:40:15,200 --> 00:40:17,120
Speaker 3: a better team than Mexico and they're going to have

782
00:40:17,160 --> 00:40:20,319
Speaker 3: to do the same kind of hope your goalkeeper just

783
00:40:20,480 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 3: absolutely stands on his head and you get on a

784
00:40:22,800 --> 00:40:25,360
Speaker 3: counter attack kind of thing, which I mean, it's worked before,

785
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:27,719
Speaker 3: but I'm not incredibly confident about that.

786
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:29,600
Speaker 1: Who is your goalkeeper one at this point?

787
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:39,200
Speaker 3: I mean, like, I understand it's weird choosing between a

788
00:40:39,239 --> 00:40:42,440
Speaker 3: guy who can actually pass and maybe the best shot

789
00:40:42,560 --> 00:40:47,000
Speaker 3: stopper in the United States, because you're basically with the

790
00:40:47,080 --> 00:40:49,799
Speaker 3: US right now, they have to decide between the two

791
00:40:50,000 --> 00:40:53,279
Speaker 3: functions of goalkeeping, and one is way better at one

792
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:55,759
Speaker 3: and one is way better at the other. So like

793
00:40:55,840 --> 00:40:58,680
Speaker 3: I love Turner, I also know that when Turner's back there,

794
00:40:58,680 --> 00:41:00,920
Speaker 3: you're going to end up just you know, kicking seventy

795
00:41:01,000 --> 00:41:03,520
Speaker 3: yards downfield and losing the ball immediately and coming back

796
00:41:03,560 --> 00:41:06,479
Speaker 3: and not playing any sort of build up or possession game.

797
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 3: And that's what you get with him. And then with

798
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:12,319
Speaker 3: Stefan you don't get as good as shot stopper, but

799
00:41:12,360 --> 00:41:15,560
Speaker 3: you have a guy who can actually pass to move

800
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:18,040
Speaker 3: the ball around and help the build up happen. So

801
00:41:19,120 --> 00:41:21,000
Speaker 3: I don't know, like I get it, Like if you

802
00:41:21,080 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 3: just want to lean it, especially in a game like this,

803
00:41:22,600 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 3: if you just lean on Turner because you're not going

804
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 3: to have the ball anyway, that's fine and probably makes

805
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:28,800
Speaker 3: the most sense. But against the teams you're actually supposed

806
00:41:28,800 --> 00:41:31,040
Speaker 3: to beat and possess the ball against, maybe Stephan still

807
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:31,720
Speaker 3: makes more sense.

808
00:41:31,920 --> 00:41:35,440
Speaker 1: That's why they pay him the big bucks. Bill Connolly

809
00:41:35,560 --> 00:41:40,080
Speaker 1: advanced statistical analysis of the world around us in our case,

810
00:41:40,160 --> 00:41:43,520
Speaker 1: most notably college football. Bill Connolly anything you want to

811
00:41:43,520 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 1: promote before we let the fine people go?

812
00:41:46,360 --> 00:41:49,320
Speaker 3: Monday Friday, Monday, Wednesday Friday Columns at ESPN dot com.

813
00:41:49,920 --> 00:41:53,640
Speaker 1: ESPN dot com. Bill Connolly always on your side here,

814
00:41:53,719 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 1: thanks again for stopping on buy Thank.

815
00:41:56,440 --> 00:42:05,400
Speaker 3: You, Daniel.

816
00:42:05,400 --> 00:42:11,240
Speaker 1: That's Bill Connelly from ESPN dot com imparting his college

817
00:42:11,239 --> 00:42:14,239
Speaker 1: football wisdom on us. Yeah, don't forget to go on

818
00:42:14,320 --> 00:42:18,120
Speaker 1: out to our website solidverbal dot com. Subscribe to this show,

819
00:42:18,640 --> 00:42:22,440
Speaker 1: read our three articles that we post on a ongoing

820
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:27,880
Speaker 1: weekly basis from Travis, from Connor and from Bradley. Don't

821
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,000
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822
00:42:30,000 --> 00:42:33,240
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823
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824
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825
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Speaker 1: have to offer. Last, but not least, Solid Saturday dot com.

826
00:42:44,880 --> 00:42:48,919
Speaker 1: We do our livestream every Saturday morning, yeah eleven am

827
00:42:48,960 --> 00:42:49,440
Speaker 1: Eastern Time.

828
00:42:49,800 --> 00:42:53,480
Speaker 2: And we did a playoff ranking reaction show on YouTube

829
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:58,520
Speaker 2: dot com Slash the Solid Verbal and if you want

830
00:42:58,520 --> 00:43:01,719
Speaker 2: it in an audio form verballers dot com, there it is.

831
00:43:02,440 --> 00:43:04,759
Speaker 1: Daniel. I hope you enjoy your weekend. It's fun as

832
00:43:04,800 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 1: always to talk with you, commiserate with you, share wisdom

833
00:43:08,680 --> 00:43:11,880
Speaker 1: with you. Oh can't wait for that guy there, my

834
00:43:11,920 --> 00:43:14,960
Speaker 1: good friend Dan Rubinstein for myself, Tie hildon Brand. Thank

835
00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,400
Speaker 1: you so much for downloading, listening, supporting the show. We

836
00:43:17,600 --> 00:43:22,800
Speaker 1: will be back after week ten. In the meantime, stay solid, peace,