1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,920 Speaker 1: Let's focus on the FED for at segment. Bruce Richards, 2 00:00:01,960 --> 00:00:05,200 Speaker 1: Marathon Asset Management Chairman and CEO, Bruce, good to see 3 00:00:05,200 --> 00:00:05,480 Speaker 1: you on. 4 00:00:05,480 --> 00:00:07,280 Speaker 2: FED day, Alex, great to see you. 5 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:07,960 Speaker 1: When and why? 6 00:00:08,320 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 2: When and why? Yes? When? 7 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:14,800 Speaker 3: Well, that's probably in my base case June of next year. 8 00:00:16,120 --> 00:00:18,759 Speaker 3: The why, and it could come earlier, but that would 9 00:00:18,800 --> 00:00:21,880 Speaker 3: be data dependent. The why is data dependence and data 10 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:26,240 Speaker 3: is inflation coming down to two or we're really going 11 00:00:26,320 --> 00:00:28,840 Speaker 3: to slow moving towards a recession, and so that would 12 00:00:28,880 --> 00:00:31,479 Speaker 3: be you know the why. Now the ECB, because you 13 00:00:31,560 --> 00:00:33,879 Speaker 3: asked the question about the FED versus the ECB Bank 14 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:38,000 Speaker 3: of England, the ECB goes first because their economy is 15 00:00:38,040 --> 00:00:42,200 Speaker 3: already around the recession right now, Germany probably, yes, there's 16 00:00:42,240 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 3: two or three countries that are in recession, and so 17 00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 3: I think DCB goes first. So one thing people aren't 18 00:00:47,159 --> 00:00:49,800 Speaker 3: thinking about is if DCB goes first and the FED 19 00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:53,240 Speaker 3: turns out to be higher for longer, well, everyone thinks 20 00:00:53,280 --> 00:00:54,840 Speaker 3: the dollar is going to be weakening next year versus 21 00:00:54,840 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 3: the euro. 22 00:00:55,360 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 2: The dollar will rip on that. 23 00:01:00,040 --> 00:01:02,200 Speaker 4: The EASY and the FED they're going to be cutting 24 00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:05,160 Speaker 4: for different reasons, Bruce. Is what you're basically saying the 25 00:01:05,640 --> 00:01:09,600 Speaker 4: FED can cut because inflation's coming down and as a 26 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:11,440 Speaker 4: result of which it can stay restrictive, but it can 27 00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 4: still cut. The ECB's cutting because the economy is slowing 28 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 4: and it needs to cut in terms of the order 29 00:01:17,400 --> 00:01:20,560 Speaker 4: of magnitude. Therefore, how should we be thinking about it. 30 00:01:20,840 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 4: If the FED just kind of needs to cut a little, 31 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:25,520 Speaker 4: what does a little look like? If the ECB's got 32 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 4: a bigger problem, what does that look like in terms 33 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:28,800 Speaker 4: of the order of magnitude. 34 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:32,400 Speaker 3: So let's talk about the FED first, And so the 35 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:35,119 Speaker 3: FED meeting today, and you know every quarter they come out, 36 00:01:35,200 --> 00:01:36,479 Speaker 3: not every meeting, but every quarter they come. 37 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:37,839 Speaker 2: Out with their dot plot curve. 38 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:40,440 Speaker 3: And the dot plots are going to be very revealing today, 39 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:43,120 Speaker 3: and so the market is expecting five cuts next year. 40 00:01:43,280 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 3: I think the market's way ahead of itself. I think 41 00:01:46,480 --> 00:01:49,920 Speaker 3: it's probably two, maybe three tops, but probably two. 42 00:01:50,000 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 2: But those dots are. 43 00:01:50,720 --> 00:01:53,440 Speaker 3: Going to be really reveal revealing because five and a 44 00:01:53,440 --> 00:01:56,080 Speaker 3: half percent funds today will probably be four and three 45 00:01:56,120 --> 00:01:58,640 Speaker 3: quarters at the end of next year, and it's not 46 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:00,240 Speaker 3: what people are expecting at all. 47 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:01,920 Speaker 2: I'd also say, when I was looking. 48 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,600 Speaker 3: Back at data over the last decades to when we 49 00:02:05,680 --> 00:02:08,359 Speaker 3: had a normal yield curve, and when things were more 50 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 3: normalized back in the nineties, you had the FED increased 51 00:02:12,040 --> 00:02:14,800 Speaker 3: rates rather sharply by three hundred base points beginning February 52 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:17,799 Speaker 3: of nineteen ninety four, and they raise rates to six 53 00:02:17,840 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 3: percent from three percent, and they brought it down by 54 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 3: seventy five basis points over the course of a year, 55 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,120 Speaker 3: only to raise at twenty five basis points. 56 00:02:26,400 --> 00:02:27,639 Speaker 2: So anyone that thinks they. 57 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 3: Know the path of this FED funds rate over the 58 00:02:31,000 --> 00:02:33,200 Speaker 3: next two or three years should look back at the 59 00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:36,440 Speaker 3: charts of nineteen nineties, right and just be humble by 60 00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,520 Speaker 3: the fact you really don't, because you don't. Really it's 61 00:02:38,520 --> 00:02:38,880 Speaker 3: going to be. 62 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:43,440 Speaker 4: But to the point, I think this growth, if the 63 00:02:44,240 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 4: sorry just to jump in, if the FED is therefore 64 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:49,799 Speaker 4: cutting because of inflation, there is a greater risk that 65 00:02:50,480 --> 00:02:53,520 Speaker 4: we see hikes further down the road, because inflation can 66 00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,000 Speaker 4: be fickle. Whereas if they're cutting from eight points of 67 00:02:56,080 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 4: view off slow and growth, that's a different ballgame, and 68 00:02:58,639 --> 00:02:59,839 Speaker 4: those cuts are more likely. 69 00:03:00,800 --> 00:03:03,160 Speaker 3: I am I hearing you, well, Yes, what I'm saying 70 00:03:03,240 --> 00:03:06,320 Speaker 3: is all data dependent. Inflation is coming down. It's coming 71 00:03:06,360 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 3: down rather sharply. But what we saw u CIPI yesterday 72 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 3: is inflation is sticky around four percent, but I'm gonna 73 00:03:11,520 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 3: call it three to four percent. 74 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:14,079 Speaker 2: So getting to. 75 00:03:14,040 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 3: Two percent, you're not getting there in the next several months. 76 00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 3: And so I don't think the Fed's moving in March 77 00:03:18,200 --> 00:03:20,040 Speaker 3: like the mark the market seems to think. 78 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 2: And so I think it's a little later than that 79 00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:22,960 Speaker 2: for the first move. 80 00:03:23,320 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 3: But I think the FED will win and they'll get 81 00:03:25,880 --> 00:03:27,840 Speaker 3: inflation down to two percent, no doubt in my mind, 82 00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:31,360 Speaker 3: so I'll be able to normalize rates. What is normal 83 00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:35,760 Speaker 3: is the big question, and normal means the normal Yo curve, 84 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:38,680 Speaker 3: and so from a normal standpoint, I think that one 85 00:03:38,720 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 3: has to think of the endgame when you look out 86 00:03:40,720 --> 00:03:45,480 Speaker 3: two years and say, hey, where is inflation probably two percent? 87 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 3: Where is then the FED fund rate? That's the question. 88 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 3: If inflation is two and we haven't seen normal since 89 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,040 Speaker 3: O eight because we had QII, we had the z 90 00:03:56,120 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 3: up world that we lived through, we had zero rates 91 00:03:58,200 --> 00:03:59,640 Speaker 3: that we went back into. 92 00:03:59,800 --> 00:04:01,840 Speaker 2: And then we went to five hundred and twenty five 93 00:04:01,840 --> 00:04:03,520 Speaker 2: base points with an inverted Yell curve. 94 00:04:03,560 --> 00:04:05,480 Speaker 3: It hasn't been normal for a long time, and a 95 00:04:05,480 --> 00:04:08,240 Speaker 3: lot of people don't remember normal, and so when you 96 00:04:08,280 --> 00:04:13,280 Speaker 3: think about normal, FED funds would be free if inflation 97 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:15,920 Speaker 3: is two, maybe it's two and a half if inflation's two, 98 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,440 Speaker 3: and then you can start to spot your curve because 99 00:04:18,480 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 3: if FED funds are two and a half to two 100 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:24,200 Speaker 3: year notes three, I'm just saying on average normal, which 101 00:04:24,200 --> 00:04:27,760 Speaker 3: puts ten year notes around four percent, which is normal, 102 00:04:27,960 --> 00:04:30,480 Speaker 3: a two hundred base point real rate off of inflation. 103 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 2: People don't know what normal is. 104 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:34,440 Speaker 3: And one thing I think Pal is going to get 105 00:04:34,440 --> 00:04:36,880 Speaker 3: to by the end of his term, which doesn't expire 106 00:04:36,960 --> 00:04:40,640 Speaker 3: until you know, the second quarter of twenty twenty six, 107 00:04:41,400 --> 00:04:44,920 Speaker 3: is to normalize interest rates and the normalize the Yell curve, 108 00:04:45,080 --> 00:04:49,400 Speaker 3: which we haven't had since before Burnank and before Janet Yellen, 109 00:04:49,640 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 3: and so he wants to make that his legacy. 110 00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:52,320 Speaker 4: So Bruce. 111 00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 1: In that environment in the beginning of the year, we 112 00:04:54,400 --> 00:04:56,159 Speaker 1: were talking about this is the golden age of credit, 113 00:04:56,200 --> 00:04:58,760 Speaker 1: right or the golden era of credit? In that environment? 114 00:04:58,960 --> 00:05:00,680 Speaker 1: Is it because you all you like credit, but you 115 00:05:00,720 --> 00:05:03,200 Speaker 1: also like distress. Dead in that environment, I don't see 116 00:05:03,200 --> 00:05:05,159 Speaker 1: the distress then necessarily. 117 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:06,920 Speaker 2: Well, I think they do coexist. 118 00:05:07,040 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 3: But the bigger picture is the comedies just fine for 119 00:05:10,960 --> 00:05:15,360 Speaker 3: right now, and you know, and markets are doing quite fine. 120 00:05:15,360 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 2: They're functioning for right. 121 00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:18,919 Speaker 3: Now, but are they really So let's dig into that 122 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:20,880 Speaker 3: for a second. So Number one to answer a question 123 00:05:21,040 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 3: is the golden erave credit? How you'll bonds are up 124 00:05:23,040 --> 00:05:26,120 Speaker 3: over ten percent this year. Lever's loans and these are 125 00:05:26,320 --> 00:05:29,240 Speaker 3: you know, liquid credit is up eleven percent, actually more 126 00:05:29,279 --> 00:05:31,800 Speaker 3: than eleven percent this year, and private credit is well 127 00:05:31,800 --> 00:05:34,839 Speaker 3: over twelve percent this year. And so all the private 128 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:38,360 Speaker 3: credit markets and public credit markets are really doing quite 129 00:05:38,360 --> 00:05:43,520 Speaker 3: well with these higher rates. And we're printing money and 130 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 3: lots of credit managers are printing money at the expense 131 00:05:46,480 --> 00:05:47,799 Speaker 3: of some equity returns. 132 00:05:47,839 --> 00:05:50,000 Speaker 2: We're getting generating a really high rate of return. 133 00:05:50,480 --> 00:05:53,840 Speaker 3: So I think while that exists, you can also have 134 00:05:53,880 --> 00:05:56,880 Speaker 3: dislocation and distressed. How can you have dislocation and distressed 135 00:05:56,920 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 3: when you just had a five point two percent GDP number? 136 00:05:59,360 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 2: Yep? How do you have that? 137 00:06:01,000 --> 00:06:03,279 Speaker 3: Well, let's look at the high old market and leverage 138 00:06:03,279 --> 00:06:05,800 Speaker 3: loan market, which is five point one trillion in US 139 00:06:05,880 --> 00:06:09,760 Speaker 3: and Europe, right, so there's about ten percent of that market, 140 00:06:10,160 --> 00:06:13,280 Speaker 3: ten percent, which is five hundred billion. That's radio triple C. 141 00:06:14,279 --> 00:06:16,280 Speaker 3: Five hundred billion is radio triple C. 142 00:06:16,600 --> 00:06:18,640 Speaker 2: Do you know that in Europe. God, you've probably know this. 143 00:06:19,000 --> 00:06:21,880 Speaker 3: In Europe, there hasn't been a triple c issuance in 144 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:25,120 Speaker 3: the high old bond market since January of twenty twenty two, 145 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,280 Speaker 3: not one deal in two years. And so is that 146 00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:30,599 Speaker 3: market functioning or a lot of those companies going to 147 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 3: get restructured? Absolutely, a lot of dislocation, a lot of 148 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,360 Speaker 3: distress despite it being the golden there of credit, despite 149 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:39,920 Speaker 3: performance being what it is. 150 00:06:40,279 --> 00:06:41,760 Speaker 2: Then look at the real estate markets. 151 00:06:41,760 --> 00:06:44,800 Speaker 3: Five point six trillion dollars of debt in the real 152 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:47,920 Speaker 3: estate markets. I think the default rate for real estate 153 00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,640 Speaker 3: is going to be about ten percent before this history 154 00:06:50,960 --> 00:06:53,960 Speaker 3: chapter is written, which is five hundred and sixty billion 155 00:06:54,040 --> 00:06:55,039 Speaker 3: dollars of real estate. 156 00:06:55,279 --> 00:06:57,560 Speaker 2: And so the banks are not in position to make 157 00:06:57,600 --> 00:06:58,159 Speaker 2: these loans. 158 00:06:58,240 --> 00:07:01,400 Speaker 3: You know, one thing we should talk about, Buzle free endgame. 159 00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,160 Speaker 3: This is going to have such an impact on the 160 00:07:04,200 --> 00:07:06,840 Speaker 3: credit markets and what it means for the banks, and 161 00:07:06,839 --> 00:07:09,039 Speaker 3: it's coming down the pike in a very big way, 162 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 3: and it's going to have a meaningful impact for all 163 00:07:11,480 --> 00:07:14,000 Speaker 3: banks that have one hundred billion dollars of assets are greater, 164 00:07:14,200 --> 00:07:16,640 Speaker 3: and there's thirty banks from JP Morgan, the biggest the 165 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:18,960 Speaker 3: banks like Key Bank and Fifth Third and lots of 166 00:07:19,000 --> 00:07:22,239 Speaker 3: banks that we're going to have to have twenty percent 167 00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:26,600 Speaker 3: more reserves against the risk weighted assets than they have today. 168 00:07:26,880 --> 00:07:28,040 Speaker 2: And that's a big deal. 169 00:07:28,280 --> 00:07:30,120 Speaker 3: And it means a lot of those banks aren't gonna 170 00:07:30,120 --> 00:07:32,680 Speaker 3: be able to extend these loans. And there's not enough 171 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 3: capital in the private credit market to fill in the 172 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 3: bank void there, and so we're gonna have to be 173 00:07:37,920 --> 00:07:42,640 Speaker 3: out there raising a lot of money to. 174 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:43,920 Speaker 2: Keep the wheels going. So it is just a goal 175 00:07:44,000 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 2: number of credit rks. 176 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:51,280 Speaker 4: When you can I can almost see you celebrating when 177 00:07:51,520 --> 00:07:55,240 Speaker 4: when the real estate truck hits. Who he just talks 178 00:07:55,280 --> 00:07:57,480 Speaker 4: about the banks, who does it hits? How hard as 179 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:00,200 Speaker 4: it hits, does they will come at once? It just 180 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,600 Speaker 4: kind of me through what you see twenty twenty four 181 00:08:02,880 --> 00:08:04,240 Speaker 4: looking like. For really said, I know a lot of 182 00:08:04,240 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 4: people who work in real estate. They're all waiting for 183 00:08:06,760 --> 00:08:09,160 Speaker 4: the truck to hit. It's kind of there's a few 184 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:12,119 Speaker 4: little accidents happening here and there, but nothing major yet. 185 00:08:12,480 --> 00:08:13,400 Speaker 4: They know it's coming. 186 00:08:13,880 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 2: So there's five hundred billion dollars of debt. 187 00:08:17,120 --> 00:08:18,640 Speaker 3: A little bit more than that, five hundred twenty five 188 00:08:18,640 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 3: billion dollars of debt in the commercial real estate market 189 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 3: that mature is calendar year twenty twenty four, and so 190 00:08:25,200 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 3: that's come in our way, coming to a theater and 191 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 3: near you know. And so I think if you're in 192 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:33,560 Speaker 3: real estate, you're on your knees and you're by your 193 00:08:33,600 --> 00:08:36,520 Speaker 3: bedside and you're saying your prayers that the FED is 194 00:08:36,520 --> 00:08:38,839 Speaker 3: going to come to the rescue and lower rates and 195 00:08:38,920 --> 00:08:42,520 Speaker 3: allow for the financing markets to open up and allow 196 00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:45,440 Speaker 3: for debt to get rolled. But the problem is, I 197 00:08:45,440 --> 00:08:49,520 Speaker 3: don't think it comes in time to really rescue, you know, 198 00:08:49,600 --> 00:08:52,320 Speaker 3: a big chunk in the marketplace. So office is under 199 00:08:52,320 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 3: a lot of stress. You know, if you're related and 200 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 3: you have the best office in New York City around 201 00:08:57,520 --> 00:09:01,040 Speaker 3: the country, you're sitting there pretty you're so well capitalized, 202 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:02,080 Speaker 3: you know. 203 00:09:02,720 --> 00:09:05,640 Speaker 2: But if you're a BC property. 204 00:09:05,160 --> 00:09:09,560 Speaker 3: Owner and you're on Third Avenue or in San Francisco 205 00:09:09,760 --> 00:09:11,959 Speaker 3: or wherever you are around the country, and you don't 206 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,200 Speaker 3: have those rental increases and you only get a fifty 207 00:09:14,240 --> 00:09:17,960 Speaker 3: percent of LTV loan and the value of the properties 208 00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 3: down thirty to forty percent to start with, there's very 209 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,760 Speaker 3: little equity worth anybody. And so so we've been buying 210 00:09:24,840 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 3: the debt on good quality product. We've been buying it 211 00:09:27,800 --> 00:09:30,440 Speaker 3: for the CNBS market. We've been issuing loans at the 212 00:09:30,520 --> 00:09:33,559 Speaker 3: highest loan rate you know, in a generation for real 213 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:34,199 Speaker 3: estate lending. 214 00:09:34,400 --> 00:09:36,760 Speaker 2: So we love real estate landing. But where's it come. 215 00:09:36,880 --> 00:09:39,080 Speaker 3: It starts with office, but it doesn't start with your 216 00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:40,079 Speaker 3: better quality properties. 217 00:09:40,080 --> 00:09:42,359 Speaker 2: It starts with the B and C properties. 218 00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,160 Speaker 3: And then it trickles down to if you bought it 219 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,560 Speaker 3: in the wrong vintage twenty twenty or twenty twenty one, 220 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:52,360 Speaker 3: and you have any financing needs coming up, that's a 221 00:09:52,400 --> 00:09:55,840 Speaker 3: problem because you're probably overpaid by twenty five thirty percent 222 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 3: and a good deal of the equity is being scratched, 223 00:09:59,200 --> 00:09:59,719 Speaker 3: at least on. 224 00:09:59,679 --> 00:10:00,880 Speaker 2: A mark a market basis. 225 00:10:00,960 --> 00:10:03,040 Speaker 3: But when it comes to financing, you'll you'll have to 226 00:10:03,080 --> 00:10:06,400 Speaker 3: really dig into the loans. But listen, you know there 227 00:10:06,400 --> 00:10:08,000 Speaker 3: are loans that are coming out of the banks in 228 00:10:08,480 --> 00:10:11,760 Speaker 3: big size and and so firms like ours can come 229 00:10:11,800 --> 00:10:15,480 Speaker 3: and provide debt measuring to debt financing, can provide this 230 00:10:15,800 --> 00:10:17,679 Speaker 3: inner financing and fill that voyage. 231 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:21,840 Speaker 4: Brice, when I when I asked where the truck was 232 00:10:21,840 --> 00:10:23,120 Speaker 4: going to hit, I didn't think you're going to be 233 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,280 Speaker 4: as specific as third Avenue. 234 00:10:26,120 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 3: That's that's I quite specific in terms of the ad 235 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 3: leux to it. 236 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:32,280 Speaker 1: Well, Les has more abuse to our friends right now. 237 00:10:32,280 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 4: Okay, third, but Lex and third, the truck's coming, Okay, 238 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:40,120 Speaker 4: Bruce Richard's such a pleasure, always a pleasure. Thank you, 239 00:10:40,160 --> 00:10:43,839 Speaker 4: Sir Bruce Richards, Marathon Asset Management Chair and c e O. 240 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:44,920 Speaker 4: Thanks Bryce,