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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number.

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Speaker 2: One show for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 3: All right, here we go throwing a job spectacular. We're

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Speaker 3: sending up to cash touchdown. We'll see most gamblers when

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Speaker 3: they go to gamble, they go to win. Oh my god,

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Speaker 3: that's incredible. Big bank, small banks. I like to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right, this is the ultimate Kabak.

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Speaker 1: Wanna pull.

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Speaker 3: And we are underway. Welcome to another edition of the

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Speaker 3: Action Network Podcast. This will be another NFL edition. I

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Speaker 3: am Chris Raybond of the Action Network, and today got

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Speaker 3: a big episode for you guys. Really excited about our guest. Today.

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Speaker 3: We're going to be talking NFC win totals and futures.

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Speaker 3: Sean Corner is with me as well. But I am

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Speaker 3: happy to welcome in NFL Networks Cynthia Freeland. You can

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Speaker 3: catch her on Game Day Morning and Fantasy Live. Cynthia,

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Speaker 3: thanks for taking the time. How are you doing.

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Speaker 1: I'm doing very well. Thank you so much for having.

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Speaker 3: Me absolutely so. You know. I know you're out there

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Speaker 3: in the midst of training camp right now. You're a

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Speaker 3: Lions fan. Just talk to Matthew Stafford. How's everything going

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Speaker 3: out of camp?

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Speaker 1: Camps are great? Because well, first of all, every single

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Speaker 1: team is full of hope, Like everyone's like, we're going

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Speaker 1: twelve and four, no, like nothing less than that, right,

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Speaker 1: So everyone's in a really good mood. And you also

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Speaker 1: get to see, like some of the rookie start to

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Speaker 1: become part of the rotation. Who's actually having a chance

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Speaker 1: to start, Like yesterday I was at Chiefs camp and

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Speaker 1: I got a chance to learn that I think Juan Thornhill,

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Speaker 1: who's the safety that they drafted out of Virginia, I

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Speaker 1: think he's actually going to become the starter, which that

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Speaker 1: was a bit of a surprise, just because they have

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Speaker 1: the veteran with Daniel Thornton, and obviously they brought in

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Speaker 1: Tyron Matthew, So it just was interesting that you know

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Speaker 1: he and Tyron wants you to call him baby T now,

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Speaker 1: so he and Baby T are going to be the starters.

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Speaker 3: Likely any surprise cuts you're thinking of like before week one.

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I think we're got to monitor this

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Speaker 1: Melvin Bordon situation pretty closely because I don't actually think

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Speaker 1: the Chargers, Like I was at Chargers camps and it

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Speaker 1: didn't feel like they had a sense of urgency around it,

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Speaker 1: Like when you went. I was at both Cowboys and

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Speaker 1: Chargers camp, and the Cowboys are like, oh, this is

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Speaker 1: getting done, Like Zee's gonna get done, Like we'll figure

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Speaker 1: it out, right, And then with the Melvin Gordon so

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Speaker 1: they're like, yeah, we'll probably trade him. Like it just

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Speaker 1: was like just a totally different vibe.

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Speaker 3: It's really kind of killing us in fantasy. Speaking to

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Speaker 3: fantasy Sean, how you doing good.

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Speaker 2: Good, Cynthia, I can safely keep drafting Austin Eckler and

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Speaker 2: Justin Jackson way too early, right.

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Speaker 1: Yeah. The thing that you always kind of or I

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Speaker 1: always kind of forget, right is like Anthony Lynn obviously

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Speaker 1: knows way too much about the running back position, so

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Speaker 1: you know this is a spot where he's in the

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Speaker 1: running back room with them. Like you know, head coaches

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Speaker 1: going different spots, right Like I'm here in Detroit, Matt

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Speaker 1: Patricia hangs out with the defense. So there's just a

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Speaker 1: you have to remember, each one has like a different vibe.

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Speaker 1: So they're about like what someone should be or how

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Speaker 1: it should how it should look. It's really based on

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Speaker 1: whatever their coach's philosophy is. So I agree, like I

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Speaker 1: do think the Austin Exler obviously like, I'm a little

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Speaker 1: bit of a Jackson apologist that went to Northwestern, so

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Speaker 1: like I obviously I like I'm a little biased there,

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Speaker 1: but you know, I do think when it comes to

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Speaker 1: Austin Eckler, especially that I don't know if you're going

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Speaker 1: to overdraft it. Well, it depends on how how you

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Speaker 1: take them, but you know what I'm saying, Yeah.

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Speaker 3: Totally, Yeah, Ecker's going I think it round in the

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Speaker 3: seventieth pick. Now, Jackson's still at one thirty. So I'm

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Speaker 3: starting to kind of load up on Jackson. I was

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Speaker 3: already loading up on Eckler a little earlier in the offseason.

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Speaker 3: So Cynthia, let us get right into it with some

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Speaker 3: questions for you, because again we're going to be talking

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Speaker 3: all about the NFC today, So we talked a little

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Speaker 3: bit about the Lions, but just for everyone out there,

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Speaker 3: explain a little bit of your background how you got

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Speaker 3: interested in NFL data science and how it led you

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Speaker 3: to kind of doing what you're doing.

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Speaker 1: Now. That's like an interesting question because sometimes I'm like,

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Speaker 1: how did that happen? Ultimately, I was working in banking

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Speaker 1: and then I cold emailed the CFO of the NFL

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Speaker 1: at the time, This is like ten years ago. His

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Speaker 1: name is Anthony Nodo. He went Twitter, He's a lot

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Speaker 1: of other places now he's at so far. But I

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Speaker 1: emailed him being like where all these smart people work

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Speaker 1: when they're like done with banking. They don't want to

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Speaker 1: necessarily do banker, They want to do something interesting. And

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Speaker 1: I always loved sports obviously, like Barry Sanders made me

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Speaker 1: a lion fan.

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Speaker 3: I had.

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Speaker 1: If you're ever and anyone listening, like from the Michigan area,

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Speaker 1: there's a grocery store chain called Meyer and they have

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Speaker 1: goldfish there. So my dad used to like bribe me, right,

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Speaker 1: like if you go to this game with me, I'll

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Speaker 1: buy you goldfish and whatever. So I was like, great,

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Speaker 1: I'll go to the game, and the goldfish they were

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Speaker 1: all named Ferry Sanders, right, So it really started with

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Speaker 1: that and growing up in East Lansing, you know, I

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Speaker 1: grew up with Michigan State and Michigan just like everywhere.

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Speaker 1: So when I got the chance to work at the NFL,

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Speaker 1: when Anthony Nodo was nice enough to let me come

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Speaker 1: work in finance for him, I started working on the

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Speaker 1: season inventory project, which was trying to optimize it's coming

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Speaker 1: up right now, actually it's kind of timely. It's sixteen

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Speaker 1: and four, the right configuration eighteen and two seventeen, and

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Speaker 1: what like, what how many games do we need to

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Speaker 1: optimize revenue? At that time, there were no teams in LA,

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Speaker 1: so I was like, how do we move a team

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Speaker 1: to LA? And I got a chance to work with

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Speaker 1: a competition committee, and doing that, I found out I

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Speaker 1: really liked sitting in dark rooms watching football with coaches

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Speaker 1: who were super passionate about it, and you get to

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Speaker 1: eat a lot of snacks and you get to swear,

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Speaker 1: so like the whole thing was perfect. So I figured

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Speaker 1: out that I was good at translating what was going

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Speaker 1: on the field to like dollars. I learned how to code,

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Speaker 1: and I got a chance to see, like wow, like

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Speaker 1: computer sciences can like supercharge that. And then I got

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Speaker 1: a chance to learn a bit more about like computer

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Speaker 1: vision and all these things. And I've just been able

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Speaker 1: to piece that together in that sort of way. That's

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Speaker 1: like the very beginnings of it. And then I had

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Speaker 1: some weird meandering road and when did finance for Disney,

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Speaker 1: and then I ended up at ESPN owned by Disney,

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Speaker 1: doing innovation, and then Paul Dubanessa got hired and DraftKings

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Speaker 1: became this big deal and then they needed on TV.

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Speaker 1: There was demand, and I was really lucky to be

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Speaker 1: like well prepared, but also like in the right place

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Speaker 1: at the right time. So that's kind of how that

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Speaker 1: all began. It's a really long story.

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Speaker 3: Sorry, Oh no, that's awesome and I'm rich. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I actually got into this industry by cold, cold emailing

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Speaker 3: Number Fire just trashing one of their fantasy articles and

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Speaker 3: here I am. So I totally hear you fun. I mean,

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Speaker 3: I feel like we got to hear you know.

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Speaker 2: Lit A quick summary if you're listening to this, if

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Speaker 2: you've heard me tell my background Surrey a lot, but

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Speaker 2: I'll just make it brief. From the age of eight,

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Speaker 2: I was destined, you know, to do something in fans

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Speaker 2: football and sports betting, and I didn't really have a

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Speaker 2: backup plan. So everything I did to that point was

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Speaker 2: for that sole purpose. So I kind of got likey

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Speaker 2: because I didn't really have any other backup options, you know.

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Speaker 2: From the age of eight, my dad started taking me

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Speaker 2: as fans football drafts and they were in Vegas. So

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Speaker 2: that's kind of where I got the sports book love

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Speaker 2: from and then from there, you know, I tried to

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Speaker 2: figure out how to make the spreads come up with

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Speaker 2: player projections from you know, before I was ten.

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Speaker 1: I love that. I want to see a picture of

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Speaker 1: you and your dad in Vegas being fantasy football, Like

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Speaker 1: that's the cover of your book. When you read a book,

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Speaker 1: that's your cover.

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Speaker 2: I will tweet that out later today. I definitely have

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Speaker 2: a picture of that.

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Speaker 3: I was destined. Destined on that note, Cynthia, So well,

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Speaker 3: you know all of us, I think, here, we have

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Speaker 3: our spreadsheets, we kind of project these games, model these games,

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Speaker 3: you know, without giving away kind of your secret sauce,

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Speaker 3: because because I know you have a pretty complex model,

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Speaker 3: but just give us kind of a little peak at

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Speaker 3: what you do your process as far as building your

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Speaker 3: NFL model. You know, what type of data are using,

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Speaker 3: what type of programs, techniques, anything that can kind of

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Speaker 3: give us a better sense of how you go about

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Speaker 3: projecting these games.

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Speaker 1: So I'm like a ten year kind of person, So

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Speaker 1: I basically take like a ten year model and I

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Speaker 1: try to find so Luckily, because I did get the

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Speaker 1: masters from Northwestern in predictive analytics, so I'm really lucky

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Speaker 1: that I can leverage some of my professorial relationships and

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Speaker 1: stuff to make sure my mass is right. So when

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Speaker 1: I find correlations between past data, I want to look

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Speaker 1: for causality.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: I don't want it to just be like, oh, this

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Speaker 1: seems to fit. I want it to be like real, hardcore,

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Speaker 1: like actual like maths. Right, Like, they may not know

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Speaker 1: a ton about football. But then I get a chance,

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Speaker 1: really really lucky chance to talk to a bunch of

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Speaker 1: coaches who helped set me straight on things. Right, Like,

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Speaker 1: we don't know if the left guard is one hundred

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Speaker 1: percent healthy or not, right Like, as an outsider, you

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Speaker 1: kind of have a binary look as to health. Right,

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Speaker 1: they're either good or bad or maybe a skill position.

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Speaker 1: You'll hear like, Okay, the little bangs up, but he's

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Speaker 1: he's gonna play today. Right, So I get a chance

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Speaker 1: to refine some of the inputs there. So when I

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Speaker 1: create my historical model, I take kind of the map,

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Speaker 1: and I take what I know from strategy from coaches.

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Speaker 1: I track a lot of tendencies of coaches, a lot

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Speaker 1: of tendencies of players, So I try to like mesh

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Speaker 1: the personnel with the strategy. And then my secret sauce

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Speaker 1: is the way I combine relational databases, which some people

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Speaker 1: can say that's like old, but I'm old. So it

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Speaker 1: works out relational databases and computer visions. So I do

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Speaker 1: a lot of computer vision, probably measure way too much

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Speaker 1: because I go down rabbit holes with it and sometimes

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Speaker 1: it doesn't work out. And we've all been there where,

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Speaker 1: like spend all this time writing a model and then

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Speaker 1: you're like, oh, this is not I have to move on.

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Speaker 1: So I think, I think that's probably the shortest version

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Speaker 1: of that. So those to me, I look for joppel

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Speaker 1: gangers amongst the past tendencies. So I do by position, group,

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Speaker 1: by you know, the structure of the team. You know,

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Speaker 1: that can be like the structure or defense, or you

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Speaker 1: know what kind of personnel you have, and I try

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Speaker 1: to see, you know, tendencies that are deeper than the

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Speaker 1: past four games. But remember since other coaches only watch

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Speaker 1: four games of film on the teams that they play,

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Speaker 1: that that's really how you should be overweighting it. And

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Speaker 1: then I go from there, so I look for I

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Speaker 1: look for kind of I use like a momentum hedge

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Speaker 1: fund model for that. So it's like the past four

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Speaker 1: weeks I overweight in terms of the results influence on

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Speaker 1: the outcome.

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Speaker 3: That is a really great point, and I'm glad glad

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Speaker 3: you brought that up because that's something I haven't heard

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Speaker 3: anyone else talk about that I was aware of as well.

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Speaker 3: But these coaches are generally out here paying the most

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Speaker 3: attention to those last four weeks. So when you kind

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Speaker 3: of start testing, like for example, in Fantasy running back

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Speaker 3: usage and things like that and why and kind of

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Speaker 3: just like wide receive in their usage on the field,

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Speaker 3: a lot of times you see kind of four game

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Speaker 3: samples tend to be more predictive than some of the

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Speaker 3: larger samples within that season. So I thought that was

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Speaker 3: a really interesting point. Sean. What are some things that

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Speaker 3: you kind of are tweaking manually in your model more

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Speaker 3: than more than others.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so you know in the past, I've said that before,

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Speaker 2: you know, especially when I'm doing player projections, a lot

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Speaker 2: of it's sort of a blend of art and science.

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Speaker 2: So you know, when I'm I'm updating my power ratings

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Speaker 2: week tweak, I'm looking at things like turnover margin luck,

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Speaker 2: injury luck. So you know, when I'm projecting every offensive

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Speaker 2: player and every defensive player, you know, for DFS projections,

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Speaker 2: I'm just aware of, you know, when teams are closer

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Speaker 2: to full strength or when when they're getting guys back.

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Speaker 2: So that's sort of where the art comes into play.

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Speaker 2: I just can tell when a team's trending up and whatnot.

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Speaker 2: And ultimately, I'm just trying to beat the market. You know,

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Speaker 2: I'm essentially trying to project what the true spread should be.

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Speaker 2: I know a lot of the different noise and and

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Speaker 2: things that go into that. So I'm essentially just trying

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Speaker 2: to beat the market. I know the various factors that

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Speaker 2: people tend to overlook, people tend to overreact to just

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Speaker 2: you know, the final score of the week before, so

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Speaker 2: looking into what led to the final score, where the

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Speaker 2: team got lucky, where they didn't get lucky, and just

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Speaker 2: trying to kind of come up with, you know, what

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Speaker 2: the true power rating for the team as we we.

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Speaker 3: Cynthia, you know, sean kind of hit on. You know

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Speaker 3: a lot of things are overrated, and I think that's

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Speaker 3: why these sportsbooks do end up making a lot of

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Speaker 3: money just based on your experience, using your kind of

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Speaker 3: ten year data and all your experience kind of hanging

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Speaker 3: out with the coaches watching the film. What are some

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Speaker 3: factors that are underrated and overrated when it comes to

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Speaker 3: being predictive of winning in the national football wee.

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Speaker 1: So we get to be a little deeper on this

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Speaker 1: pod because sometimes on TV, like the hardest thing I

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Speaker 1: have to do is to tell a really sophisticated point,

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Speaker 1: but in like thirty seconds that is something as like

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Speaker 1: it's very hard to do. So going a little deeper.

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Speaker 1: To me, it's the I'm going to call it like

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Speaker 1: the chain reaction, right, So like what happens on first

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Speaker 1: dictates what happened on the second down dictates what happened

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Speaker 1: on third down, right, So looking through the chain and

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Speaker 1: the chain reactions, like some people will like overestimate third

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Speaker 1: down percentage or red zone percentage for certain things, right, like,

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Speaker 1: look at the chain reaction and there aren't that many

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Speaker 1: drives in a game, so you can kind of see like, okay,

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Speaker 1: well this didn't work, so they adjusted in pass or

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Speaker 1: they you know, the Bears had some interesting tendencies like

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Speaker 1: that last season. So to me, it's you just let's

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Speaker 1: look at the chain reaction, like the if then the

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Speaker 1: decision tree that they're using for all of it. For me,

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Speaker 1: that means ultimately first down is where I start my analysis, right,

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Speaker 1: Like again, third down can be a lot of people

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Speaker 1: look at third I find I find at least and

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Speaker 1: a lot of people look at red zone. And both

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Speaker 1: of those are great places to start, but you have

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Speaker 1: to look to see what led people to be there.

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Speaker 3: Absolutely, you know that data essentially that first and second down,

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Speaker 3: those early downs are a lot more predictive of kind

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Speaker 3: of what a team really is, whereas I think the

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Speaker 3: third down in the red zone they played well when

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Speaker 3: coaches are kind of talking to their team because they're

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Speaker 3: high leverage situations that they want their team right, and

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Speaker 3: you know on TV it plays I was, you know, well,

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Speaker 3: it's easy to kind of give a really cool red

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Speaker 3: zone stat and it explains a lot about how a

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Speaker 3: team is performing. But the problem is it's not always predicted.

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Speaker 3: And I think that's the key point you kind of

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Speaker 3: made there. I'm sean anything else.

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Speaker 2: You know, a lot of these NFL teams are closer

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Speaker 2: than people think, So a lot of the random this

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Speaker 2: week two week could be due to, you know, a

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Speaker 2: turnover margin which is largely going to aggrest to the mean.

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Speaker 2: So that's that's something that I think people overreact to.

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Speaker 2: And then injury luck. And we'll kind of dive into

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Speaker 2: this when we when we go over these NFC teams.

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Speaker 2: But a lot of these teams, I think people are

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Speaker 2: overreacting because of some of this various luck they had

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Speaker 2: last year, and I'm I'm expecting them to regress closer

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Speaker 2: to the meme this year.

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Speaker 3: All right, let's hop right into the NFC West. We're

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Speaker 3: gonna run through all of these NFC win totals, just

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Speaker 3: talk about what we think are the you know, the

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Speaker 3: top bets, the teams that we think are going to

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Speaker 3: over and underperform. So let's start in the NFC West.

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Speaker 3: We're gonna start out west. Everyone likes to start in

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Speaker 3: the East. Had the most time allotted the NFC West

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Speaker 3: because I think it's really interesting and fascinating. Let's are

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Speaker 3: in LA with the Los Angeles Rams, coming off that

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl loss to the New England Patriots. Their win

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Speaker 3: total is ten and a half, but you are getting

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Speaker 3: plus one twenty if you bet the over Cithia Todd

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Speaker 3: Gurley led the NFL over the last two years forty

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Speaker 3: total touchdowns. How does this arthritic knee impact your model

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Speaker 3: for the Rams and just generally, what's the outlook for

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Speaker 3: them in twenty nineteen.

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Speaker 1: I was at RAMS camp a couple of times because

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Speaker 1: it's close to my home, and let's need get to

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Speaker 1: ask this question like every fifth minute Dame with Sean McVay,

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Speaker 1: and they've actually given the same answer over and over

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Speaker 1: again that his touchdowns are going to stay there, but

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Speaker 1: his total touches are going to be fewer. They like

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Speaker 1: Darrell Henderson a lot, so I don't know if i'd

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Speaker 1: say full season him, but I think that's at the

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Speaker 1: end of the season. You'll be like, Okay, from week

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Speaker 1: six on it was Henderson, do you know what I mean? Like,

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Speaker 1: not totally, but Gurley with sim Henderson if that makes sense.

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Speaker 3: Oh yeah, absolutely. You know it would make sense for

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Speaker 3: them to use them on high leverage situations. You know,

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Speaker 3: they gave him the guaranteed deal a lot of money,

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Speaker 3: so they're kind of they're kind of stuck with them

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Speaker 3: for the time being. Sean ten and a half. That's

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Speaker 3: a pretty high win total. Is this one that you're

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Speaker 3: going under on? Because when I'm looking at your win totals,

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Speaker 3: I see them not many teams get to double digits.

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Speaker 2: If yeah, that's correct, I have two teams technically over

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Speaker 2: double digit wins. Like I said, I'm factoring quite a

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Speaker 2: bitter aggression. So usually you can get value on the

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Speaker 2: under for teams that you know. Vegas has projected double

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Speaker 2: digit wins, But in terms of the rams, I have

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Speaker 2: them projected exactly ten, and just before we dive in,

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Speaker 2: the under is minus one forty here. You know, in

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Speaker 2: my model, minus one thirty five is about how much

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Speaker 2: a half a win is worth, and minus one eighty

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Speaker 2: is a full win, so I'll be referencing those So

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Speaker 2: this is a pass for me, but you know, I

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Speaker 2: do lean towards the under. I don't think Gurley is

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Speaker 2: going to make two much of a difference if they

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Speaker 2: limit his workout. As Cynthia mentioned, I think Darryl Henderson

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Speaker 2: was drafted to be sort of a new element in

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Speaker 2: the offense, more the Alvin Kamara Chris Thompson role, So

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Speaker 2: I think that's just a new piece they're adding to

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Speaker 2: the offense. And Malcolm Brown is probably sort of the

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Speaker 2: insurance if Gurley has to miss time. So I'm not

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Speaker 2: really you know, docking him for Gurley's health right now.

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Speaker 2: I have him favored in fourteen games this year, but

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Speaker 2: eight of them I have less than a field goal,

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Speaker 2: so I think, you know, they're going to have to

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Speaker 2: continue their luck in one score games. Last year they

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Speaker 2: went six and one there, so that they could see

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Speaker 2: some negative aggression in that department. They were top five

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Speaker 2: in football Outsiders adjust the game lost the past two seasons,

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Speaker 2: so I think they've been getting pretty lucky in terms

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Speaker 2: of injury luck. So you know, just a few things

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Speaker 2: like that can really add up, and you know, I

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Speaker 2: think they're going to be a good team, but you know,

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Speaker 2: they're probably not gonna be able to match the record

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Speaker 2: from the past couple of seasons, So I'm expecting some

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Speaker 2: aggression and widelyan under here.

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Speaker 3: Those factors Gurley being scaled back a little, them being

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Speaker 3: in a ton of winnable games, but what project is

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Speaker 3: a ton of a ton of close games? Instead of

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Speaker 3: betting on the winds told or any of the rams futures,

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Speaker 3: I actually went ahead, and you guys can tell me

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Speaker 3: what you think of this, but I took out an

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Speaker 3: MVP future on Jared Goff at forty to one because

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Speaker 3: I think that everyone he throws to is really really good.

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Speaker 3: This team could finish with the best record if girl

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Speaker 3: he's not kind of being used as much. I think

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Speaker 3: you're gonna look at GoF first as, oh my god,

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Speaker 3: this guy really took a step forward after that hideous

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Speaker 3: performance in the Super Bowl. Am I crazy or doesn't

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Speaker 3: have a shot.

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Speaker 1: I think that you have to factor in what you're getting,

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Speaker 1: Like you know, I think he said forty to one.

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Speaker 1: The problem I have with this one is that the

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Speaker 1: division has gotten more interesting, right, Like, it's gonna be

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Speaker 1: hard to figure that the forty nine ers are gonna

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Speaker 1: be not so great if Jimmy Garoppolo can stay healthy

400
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Speaker 1: and their defensive front looks completely different and the front

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Speaker 1: will help the back. I mean, you had a historic

402
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Speaker 1: low in term of seven turnovers to that team for

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Speaker 1: the entire season, like NFL history low. So I just

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Speaker 1: don't know if the point is everyone goes closer to

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Speaker 1: the mean and I just that whole team. I'm like,

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Speaker 1: I'm a little I'm just a little nervous about it.

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Speaker 1: Do you think they win the division? But I don't.

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Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to be like like it was.

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Speaker 1: This past season was so convincing.

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Speaker 3: I mean, you don't have to tell me twice about

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Speaker 3: the forty nine ers. I was like, the Jimmy G guy.

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Speaker 3: Last year, I had a super Bowl future on them everything.

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Speaker 3: So let's talk about the Niners actually, cause the sports

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Speaker 3: books are implying about a twenty nine percent chance of

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Speaker 3: them making the playoffs, Cynthia, do you give them better

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Speaker 3: odds than twenty nine percent to make the playoffs this season?

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Speaker 1: I do. I definitely do it. It's a factor of like, Look,

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Speaker 1: we can talk about the dynamics of this, but I

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Speaker 1: M like theory is that I think Cam Newton will

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Speaker 1: not only be a big key in deciding the NFC South,

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Speaker 1: but he's also be a big key in deciding the

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Speaker 1: NFC West, and that could potentially be one of the

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Speaker 1: ways is that the ninersent sneak past people's expectations. I'm

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Speaker 1: not giving them like a like it's not like a

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Speaker 1: sixty percent situation like that, but I definitely think that.

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Speaker 1: I think nine wins is very achievable. So it's going

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Speaker 1: to be whether or not nine wins is enough.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you know, like the most important thing,

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Speaker 3: you have to be able to throw the ball. Jimmy

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Speaker 3: Garoppolo in his career as a Niner, now the stamp

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Speaker 3: was still small, but he's up well over eight yards

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Speaker 3: in attempt, and it's not like the supporting cast has

433
00:19:19,400 --> 00:19:22,359
Speaker 3: been amazing. But they will play at a high tempo.

434
00:19:22,440 --> 00:19:23,960
Speaker 3: I think they will, and they were one of the

435
00:19:23,960 --> 00:19:26,840
Speaker 3: better teams on early downs on offense last season even

436
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:30,560
Speaker 3: though they were without Garoppolo. So I'm with you there, Sean.

437
00:19:30,600 --> 00:19:32,439
Speaker 3: How do you feel about the forty nine ers this season?

438
00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:35,719
Speaker 2: Their win totals eight and the overs miss win forty.

439
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,960
Speaker 2: I do have them at eight point two, so I'm

440
00:19:38,960 --> 00:19:41,760
Speaker 2: passing there, but I think the playoffs is the angle

441
00:19:42,160 --> 00:19:44,639
Speaker 2: to bet them here, Yes, is plus two forty And

442
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:47,520
Speaker 2: you know the reason is last year. I've talked about it,

443
00:19:47,560 --> 00:19:50,760
Speaker 2: but last year they've had the league worst turnover margin.

444
00:19:50,800 --> 00:19:53,280
Speaker 2: They were minus twenty five, so they're due to, you know,

445
00:19:53,359 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 2: positively regrest. There. There were three and six and one

446
00:19:55,840 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 2: score games, which is important because I have them slightly

447
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:01,639
Speaker 2: favored in ten games this year, all but three games

448
00:20:01,680 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 2: on their schedule, I have projected less than a field

449
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,320
Speaker 2: goal on the spread, so I think, you know, some

450
00:20:07,359 --> 00:20:10,439
Speaker 2: positive regression in one score games, they could easily hit

451
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:12,640
Speaker 2: nine wins. And you know, that's like Cynthia mentioned, that's

452
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:14,520
Speaker 2: what's gonna take to make the playoffs. So I just

453
00:20:14,560 --> 00:20:16,919
Speaker 2: think there's more upside in taking that, yes bet, And

454
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:19,800
Speaker 2: you know the Rams and Seahawks, you know they should

455
00:20:19,800 --> 00:20:22,160
Speaker 2: still be above average, but they're both due to regress.

456
00:20:22,480 --> 00:20:24,719
Speaker 2: The Cardinals should be better this year, but I'm not

457
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,119
Speaker 2: too worried about them making the playoffs or you know,

458
00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,800
Speaker 2: competing with San Francisco there. So I think the way

459
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:31,840
Speaker 2: to bet on San Francisco this year is to take

460
00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:34,720
Speaker 2: the upside and for them to make the playoffs.

461
00:20:34,960 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 1: I didn't think you were gonna agree with me there, Oh.

462
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:41,280
Speaker 3: No, absolutely, forty nine ers, man, you know what's gonna happen, right, Like,

463
00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:43,360
Speaker 3: we're all gonna be here talking about the forty nine

464
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,040
Speaker 3: ers and then there's gonna be no value aft Like

465
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:47,679
Speaker 3: people are gonna hear it, they're gonna go better them,

466
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:49,159
Speaker 3: and then it's just gonna be like one of the

467
00:20:49,160 --> 00:20:51,359
Speaker 3: worst bets all of a sudden, because the winter is

468
00:20:51,359 --> 00:20:53,480
Speaker 3: probably gonna I mean, the playoff odds are probably just

469
00:20:53,520 --> 00:20:58,439
Speaker 3: gonna start shrinking as it goes. But let's let's go.

470
00:20:58,520 --> 00:21:01,720
Speaker 3: Let's talk about the Seahawks because they've won nine games

471
00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 3: in all seven of Russell Wilson's you know, all seven

472
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:10,320
Speaker 3: years of his career, Cynthia, do your models like the

473
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:13,720
Speaker 3: Seahawks still, because somebody's got to lose games in this division, right,

474
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,120
Speaker 3: you know, if you like the the forty nine ers,

475
00:21:16,119 --> 00:21:18,719
Speaker 3: you know the Rams are still not going away. Did

476
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 3: the Seahawks get to nine wins again?

477
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,639
Speaker 1: I'm a little concerned about the Seahawks this season. I

478
00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:26,200
Speaker 1: don't know what to expect from the middle of their defense,

479
00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:31,200
Speaker 1: and that's an area that is really predictive that I found.

480
00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:34,960
Speaker 1: So I don't know, I'm a little concerned.

481
00:21:35,920 --> 00:21:37,320
Speaker 3: All right. How about we asked, how about we say

482
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,560
Speaker 3: this way because remember last year, I think there was

483
00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:42,879
Speaker 3: a lot of kind of concern throughout the industry as well.

484
00:21:43,320 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 3: Where were you on the Seahawks last year, Cynthia? Were

485
00:21:45,400 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 3: you kind of concerned, equally concerned, more concern less concerned

486
00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,920
Speaker 3: because it didn't look that good last year either, anything to.

487
00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:53,000
Speaker 1: Do with defense. Te Carroll's going to figure out, right, Like,

488
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,119
Speaker 1: I'm not, I'm less worried. And you know what, Bobby

489
00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:58,560
Speaker 1: Wagnan is there, kJ Wright is like there are pieces there,

490
00:21:58,600 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 1: but I'm just like, who's gonna rush the pass? Or

491
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:03,400
Speaker 1: in this division, look who they have to play? Right,

492
00:22:03,720 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: Like a lot of like short passes, quick passes, a

493
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,040
Speaker 1: lot of like a lot of things. I think the

494
00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,639
Speaker 1: Cardinals are going to play really fast and really short.

495
00:22:12,680 --> 00:22:15,400
Speaker 1: And I think he saw Jared Goss everything was eleven.

496
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:17,680
Speaker 1: I don't know about their safeties. I'm a little concerned

497
00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,720
Speaker 1: about them right so, like I don't want to be me,

498
00:22:19,920 --> 00:22:22,400
Speaker 1: but that that just scares me a bit. I think

499
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,439
Speaker 1: last I was higher on them last season, preseason than

500
00:22:25,440 --> 00:22:25,920
Speaker 1: I am now.

501
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,639
Speaker 3: Yeah, it does look it does look rough. You know.

502
00:22:29,880 --> 00:22:32,520
Speaker 3: I think Russell Wilson probably is going to have to

503
00:22:32,560 --> 00:22:33,200
Speaker 3: bail them out.

504
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 1: But what happens if he misses a game? It's Paxton

505
00:22:35,760 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 1: Lynch and Gino Smith behind him right now, and I

506
00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 1: don't who knows who's going to make the team. So

507
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:41,480
Speaker 1: what if he I mean he doesn't miss games. I

508
00:22:41,520 --> 00:22:43,639
Speaker 1: get it, but it's very hard to always say that

509
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 1: you're never going to miss a game when you have

510
00:22:45,080 --> 00:22:47,800
Speaker 1: an O line that looks like there And that's what

511
00:22:48,240 --> 00:22:49,320
Speaker 1: is a little scary too.

512
00:22:49,840 --> 00:22:51,679
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wonder if that had anything to do with

513
00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,000
Speaker 3: And I know that. You know, they got the new coordinator,

514
00:22:54,040 --> 00:22:57,280
Speaker 3: Brian Schottenheimer last season, but Russell Wilson wasn't running as

515
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,199
Speaker 3: much last year, and I wonder if you know, had

516
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:02,880
Speaker 3: something to do with trying to ensure he's healthy because

517
00:23:02,880 --> 00:23:05,000
Speaker 3: he's basically that whole team. I mean, you know they

518
00:23:05,040 --> 00:23:07,280
Speaker 3: had to pay him, they you know they pay Wagner,

519
00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,960
Speaker 3: but they're really just thin all around the whole roster

520
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:17,399
Speaker 3: outside of Russell Wilson, so imperative that he stays healthy. Cardinals,

521
00:23:17,560 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 3: I want to talk about them because they're polarizing team.

522
00:23:21,520 --> 00:23:25,880
Speaker 3: Some of us, probably myself included, or overly bullish on them.

523
00:23:26,160 --> 00:23:28,160
Speaker 1: But what does that mean? What does overly bullish mean?

524
00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:30,080
Speaker 1: Like how many games are you saying right? Like, are

525
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:31,240
Speaker 1: you saying eight?

526
00:23:31,600 --> 00:23:33,600
Speaker 3: I was betting the over at five and a half.

527
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,480
Speaker 3: I would still take it at six. I think this

528
00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,359
Speaker 3: is more like a seven win, seven ish win team

529
00:23:39,720 --> 00:23:42,600
Speaker 3: that has like an outside shot at you know, winning

530
00:23:42,640 --> 00:23:45,040
Speaker 3: record or even even the playoffs. Like obviously I think

531
00:23:45,080 --> 00:23:47,400
Speaker 3: the forty nine ers are the better bet for the playoffs,

532
00:23:47,440 --> 00:23:50,320
Speaker 3: but I don't think that this team by any means

533
00:23:50,480 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 3: is going to be a bottom dweller. And that's kind

534
00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:55,119
Speaker 3: of how they are being priced in the market. Like,

535
00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 3: I think this team would be extremely competitive even if

536
00:23:57,440 --> 00:24:00,159
Speaker 3: they go whether they go six and ten, seven, and nine,

537
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 3: eight and eight. I think it would be extremely competitive weekend.

538
00:24:02,680 --> 00:24:04,920
Speaker 1: Yeah okay, Sean, you go first one.

539
00:24:05,080 --> 00:24:08,800
Speaker 2: Okay, yeah, you know, I haven't projected at five point five.

540
00:24:08,920 --> 00:24:11,080
Speaker 2: But they're a team that they have such a wide

541
00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 2: range of outcomes. I think that actually favors a team

542
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:17,639
Speaker 2: that's below eight wins. I have them favored in zero games,

543
00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,359
Speaker 2: so let me just get that out there. Eight times.

544
00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:23,040
Speaker 2: I have them getting less than four points though against

545
00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 2: the spread, so it could come down to their record

546
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:28,680
Speaker 2: in one score games, and like I said, that kind

547
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,399
Speaker 2: of helps a team with a low team total. So

548
00:24:30,960 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 2: you know they're going to be improved this year. I

549
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:34,280
Speaker 2: don't think they're going to be the worst team in

550
00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:36,080
Speaker 2: the league, but you know, it's just some luck. In

551
00:24:36,119 --> 00:24:39,320
Speaker 2: one score games, they could easily pass five wins. So

552
00:24:39,600 --> 00:24:42,400
Speaker 2: you know, I lean over the only bet in this

553
00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:44,800
Speaker 2: division I actually like, I think gets to touch on,

554
00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:46,720
Speaker 2: but was the Seahawks under eight and a half plus

555
00:24:46,800 --> 00:24:49,399
Speaker 2: one ten. I happen to have some Seahawks friends. I

556
00:24:49,400 --> 00:24:51,880
Speaker 2: don't care if I upset anybody. I'm here to make

557
00:24:51,920 --> 00:24:54,240
Speaker 2: money and the under eight and a half plus one

558
00:24:54,280 --> 00:24:56,080
Speaker 2: ten is just too good to pass up, right now?

559
00:24:57,240 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: See you can do the dirty work. I can disagree

560
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 1: with it exactly. I'm totally on the opposite side of

561
00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:06,960
Speaker 1: you guys when it comes to the Cardinals. I'm not

562
00:25:07,080 --> 00:25:10,680
Speaker 1: super optimistic. I'm not super pessimistic either. I think five

563
00:25:10,880 --> 00:25:14,400
Speaker 1: is a great spot to think about. Why because as

564
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:16,840
Speaker 1: much as I think Kyler Murray will be like really

565
00:25:16,920 --> 00:25:19,520
Speaker 1: dynamic and interesting to watch in fun and there's a

566
00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:21,399
Speaker 1: lot going on here, there's two main things that are

567
00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,280
Speaker 1: a really big deal that I don't understand the answer to.

568
00:25:23,400 --> 00:25:25,119
Speaker 1: The first is their O line. And I get it.

569
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 1: If you have an air raid offense, you're going to

570
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:30,320
Speaker 1: go fast. It's not gonna in theory that that's not

571
00:25:30,359 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 1: going to be a big deal. Although this is the NFL,

572
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,760
Speaker 1: it's not college. And if you look at Kyler Murray's

573
00:25:34,800 --> 00:25:37,200
Speaker 1: O line in college, it was arguably one of the best.

574
00:25:37,320 --> 00:25:39,840
Speaker 1: And I'm a big O line tracker, that's a huge

575
00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:43,359
Speaker 1: so so so predictive of success. I definitely have some

576
00:25:43,480 --> 00:25:46,440
Speaker 1: concerns about their defense as well. I'm not sure what

577
00:25:46,480 --> 00:25:49,040
Speaker 1: happens when teams pass on them, Like, I'm not sure

578
00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:51,160
Speaker 1: how that's going to work out. There's just too many

579
00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:54,240
Speaker 1: question marks for me to be like like I said, five,

580
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,840
Speaker 1: I think five is where like you're five and a

581
00:25:56,840 --> 00:25:58,880
Speaker 1: half from your model is very close to my model.

582
00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: I think my model is like five five five three

583
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,680
Speaker 1: six or something like that. Right now, I don't look

584
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,480
Speaker 1: at it a ton during training camp because as I'm here,

585
00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,600
Speaker 1: it's like really hard to keep up with who's projected

586
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:10,600
Speaker 1: to start, you know, because I'm on the road or whatever.

587
00:26:10,640 --> 00:26:12,880
Speaker 1: But last night checked it was like, you know, under

588
00:26:12,920 --> 00:26:13,600
Speaker 1: five to five for me.

589
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:15,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, and just real quick, I wanted to float a

590
00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:17,560
Speaker 2: theory for you guys to see if I'm on the

591
00:26:17,600 --> 00:26:19,280
Speaker 2: right track here. But I think that I'm I'm in

592
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,159
Speaker 2: actually target betting on the Cardinals early in the season.

593
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,359
Speaker 2: The NFL. You know, once they get film on it,

594
00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:26,880
Speaker 2: we'll probably be able to you know, handle the area better.

595
00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:29,159
Speaker 2: But I just think that window of the first few games,

596
00:26:29,520 --> 00:26:32,399
Speaker 2: especially at home week one against the Lions are getting

597
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:32,960
Speaker 2: two and a half.

598
00:26:33,040 --> 00:26:35,200
Speaker 1: I have that, Hey, you sat plumbing met the Lions like.

599
00:26:35,160 --> 00:26:39,439
Speaker 2: That, Okay, Week two, you know, the first couple of weeks,

600
00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,560
Speaker 2: you know, I think they'll hide it a bit in preseason,

601
00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:43,960
Speaker 2: but I think the first couple weeks could be special

602
00:26:44,040 --> 00:26:45,840
Speaker 2: and then you know, the NFL might catch up and

603
00:26:45,880 --> 00:26:46,879
Speaker 2: that's where the Cardinals are.

604
00:26:47,160 --> 00:26:48,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, so that's what I would do.

605
00:26:48,760 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: I know we're not talking about the afday, but that's

606
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:53,080
Speaker 1: exactly my team strategy when it comes to the Ravens too.

607
00:26:53,400 --> 00:26:55,000
Speaker 1: Like I know Greg Roman, there's a lot of film

608
00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:56,920
Speaker 1: on him, but and I think the most interesting game

609
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,200
Speaker 1: is going to beet Cardinals in rings, Like so interesting

610
00:26:59,280 --> 00:27:01,399
Speaker 1: because there's gonna be so different. Right, They're the Spurs

611
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,960
Speaker 1: versus the you know, it's slowed Spurs versus the Golden

612
00:27:04,960 --> 00:27:06,520
Speaker 1: State Warriors, you know what I mean, Like that kind

613
00:27:06,520 --> 00:27:08,560
Speaker 1: of thing. Maybe more like the Sacramento Kings.

614
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:13,560
Speaker 3: But whatever, absolutely, and Greg Roman, you know, he kind

615
00:27:13,560 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 3: of they put him in position to kind of call

616
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 3: the shots on that offense. Now, Harbor wanted him to

617
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:22,040
Speaker 3: switch with Marty morning Wagon, and morning We didn't really

618
00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:25,399
Speaker 3: want it, so he just moved on. But Roman worked

619
00:27:25,400 --> 00:27:27,720
Speaker 3: with Colin Kaepernick and it was a really similar situation

620
00:27:27,760 --> 00:27:33,920
Speaker 3: where Kaepernick didn't run very similar guys. So if there's

621
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:36,479
Speaker 3: anyone that kind of could cook something up to at

622
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 3: least make, you know, this thing continue to be functional,

623
00:27:39,040 --> 00:27:40,760
Speaker 3: because I think they had a really easy schedule down

624
00:27:40,760 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 3: the stretch last year that was the one thing with

625
00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 3: the Ravens. They faced like all of the worst defenses

626
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:48,679
Speaker 3: in terms of DVOA, So we have to kind of

627
00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,720
Speaker 3: temper expectations a little. But I think with that whole

628
00:27:51,720 --> 00:27:54,159
Speaker 3: off season, adding some new pieces, I don't doubt that

629
00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 3: Greg Roman will have, you know, some tricks up a sweve.

630
00:27:58,200 --> 00:28:00,159
Speaker 3: But let's stay on track, let's get let's go to

631
00:28:00,160 --> 00:28:03,720
Speaker 3: the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints. I mean, thirteen

632
00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 3: and three last year probably should have been fourteen and two,

633
00:28:06,520 --> 00:28:08,960
Speaker 3: but the rest of their starters in week seventeen Carolina

634
00:28:08,960 --> 00:28:11,080
Speaker 3: didn't have cam so that's a that was a very

635
00:28:11,080 --> 00:28:14,919
Speaker 3: winnable game. Ten point five wins is their win total,

636
00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:19,800
Speaker 3: but you are getting plus one point thirty only over Cynthia.

637
00:28:20,000 --> 00:28:22,080
Speaker 3: Is ten point five too much of an over correction?

638
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:24,960
Speaker 3: It's still high? But is are there Saints a better

639
00:28:25,040 --> 00:28:28,440
Speaker 3: team than ten point five wins given that they essentially

640
00:28:28,480 --> 00:28:29,920
Speaker 3: almost won fourteen last year?

641
00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: Eleven glossy. I think that that division's really tricky, or

642
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,399
Speaker 1: it could be really tricky, depends on health and other places.

643
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 1: Like I like, I think eleven is like where I

644
00:28:39,640 --> 00:28:42,800
Speaker 1: feel like I'd be comfortable. But so obviously that's like

645
00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: slightly more than what they're asking for. But I don't

646
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:48,760
Speaker 1: know like that to stay away like double digiti I

647
00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:50,800
Speaker 1: feel comfortable with. But I think you got to look

648
00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:52,720
Speaker 1: at the changes on their defense, and I'm very concerned

649
00:28:52,720 --> 00:28:56,400
Speaker 1: about their secondary. Still, I think I think ten eleven great,

650
00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: That's where I'm comfortable.

651
00:28:58,480 --> 00:28:59,960
Speaker 3: I kind of set you up there, Cynthia, because I

652
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:02,520
Speaker 3: actually love the under on this one. He either got

653
00:29:02,560 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 3: hurt down the stretch last year or he just started

654
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:08,760
Speaker 3: wearing down his last seven games. Six point seven to

655
00:29:08,800 --> 00:29:11,640
Speaker 3: seven yards per attempt, six picks is taking more sacks.

656
00:29:11,640 --> 00:29:14,400
Speaker 3: The decision making just didn't seem exactly right. I just

657
00:29:14,440 --> 00:29:18,400
Speaker 3: have to see kind of Drew Brees return to Drew

658
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,880
Speaker 3: Brees of the first ten games of that season before

659
00:29:21,880 --> 00:29:24,120
Speaker 3: I'm back in on the Saints. But Sean, I know

660
00:29:24,160 --> 00:29:26,040
Speaker 3: you're a bit higher on the Saints, or at least

661
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 3: you were when we talked last time. Any kind of

662
00:29:28,440 --> 00:29:32,959
Speaker 3: differing feelings. Are you kind of with Cynthia that eleven

663
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:34,560
Speaker 3: is a better number? Yeah?

664
00:29:34,640 --> 00:29:37,240
Speaker 2: No, I think you know, ten to eleven is sounds

665
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:40,040
Speaker 2: about right. Teams like this, we've talked about it. I

666
00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:42,720
Speaker 2: do think they're a high ceiling low floor kind of

667
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 2: team because like you mentioned, you know, Drew Brees is

668
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:47,040
Speaker 2: going to decline at some point. They could be this year,

669
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:49,760
Speaker 2: but I'm staying away from the total. I do like

670
00:29:49,840 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 2: them still, however, ten to want to win the super Bowl.

671
00:29:52,840 --> 00:29:54,280
Speaker 2: I think when you when you take it a bet

672
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:56,800
Speaker 2: like that, you're not really worried about the floor this year.

673
00:29:56,840 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 2: Any move they make this year is going to be,

674
00:29:59,080 --> 00:30:01,080
Speaker 2: you know, to try to increase their chances of winning

675
00:30:01,120 --> 00:30:03,440
Speaker 2: a super Bowl because they have to with their short

676
00:30:03,440 --> 00:30:06,360
Speaker 2: window they have with Breeze left. So I like them

677
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 2: as a super Bowl bet, but I'm staying away from

678
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 2: the total, if that makes sense, because you're you're bringing

679
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,920
Speaker 2: in that floor. I look for more creative angles for

680
00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:16,400
Speaker 2: teams like this that I do like. But yeah, I'm

681
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:17,400
Speaker 2: staying away from this total.

682
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 3: This is a low floor team. If something happens to

683
00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,480
Speaker 3: Breeze Thomas Kamara, it could be a skill player, and

684
00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,200
Speaker 3: you don't usually say that about a skill player. But

685
00:30:24,920 --> 00:30:26,880
Speaker 3: you know, I have a lot of questions about them.

686
00:30:27,160 --> 00:30:31,920
Speaker 3: But let's talk about the Falcons Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

687
00:30:32,080 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 3: Falcons at eight and a half wins Panthers seven and

688
00:30:34,360 --> 00:30:37,920
Speaker 3: a half, Bucks six and a half, Cynthia, If you

689
00:30:38,000 --> 00:30:41,520
Speaker 3: had to take one of those overs, which team do

690
00:30:41,560 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 3: you think is the most likely to go over their

691
00:30:43,560 --> 00:30:45,280
Speaker 3: win total? Is it the Bucks kind of at the

692
00:30:45,360 --> 00:30:47,720
Speaker 3: back end, the Panthers in the middle. All they have

693
00:30:47,800 --> 00:30:49,360
Speaker 3: to do is go five hundred? Or do you like

694
00:30:49,400 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 3: the Falcons to post a winning record?

695
00:30:51,600 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 1: I think that, like most people are really high on Atlanta.

696
00:30:54,320 --> 00:30:56,160
Speaker 1: I don't know. I feel like that's maybe that's like

697
00:30:56,280 --> 00:30:58,200
Speaker 1: just who I follow or who I see or whatever.

698
00:30:58,280 --> 00:30:59,960
Speaker 1: But I need to see it a little bit more

699
00:31:00,160 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 1: before I believe it. I'm telling you my like Cam

700
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: Newton's stuff is like is very real, right, Like he

701
00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:06,560
Speaker 1: throws a whole ranch in a lot of things just

702
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 1: because of who they play this season, But I think

703
00:31:09,520 --> 00:31:13,120
Speaker 1: Carolina is a sneaky good team now that does really

704
00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 1: rely on Cam Newton's ability to be a bit more

705
00:31:16,040 --> 00:31:18,560
Speaker 1: healthy than we've seen him in the past seasons. I mean,

706
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: I think I like it in the sense of because

707
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,120
Speaker 1: I want to believe Cam's healthier, but like, stay away

708
00:31:23,120 --> 00:31:25,800
Speaker 1: from that. I would say, what's the what's the what's

709
00:31:25,800 --> 00:31:29,320
Speaker 1: the market for the Falcons? And what's feel like just

710
00:31:29,320 --> 00:31:31,160
Speaker 1: feel like that's like such a trendy pick that it's

711
00:31:31,200 --> 00:31:33,560
Speaker 1: probably a terrible market like the Panthers as well.

712
00:31:33,560 --> 00:31:36,120
Speaker 3: It's not as bad. It's minus one twenty. It's over

713
00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:39,080
Speaker 3: eight and a half though, so you know, obviously a

714
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: win higher, but minus one twenty.

715
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:43,520
Speaker 1: I'm going with Bruce Arians. Then it's got to be

716
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,960
Speaker 1: the Bucks Over has to be a little something, right,

717
00:31:45,960 --> 00:31:46,920
Speaker 1: What do we got there?

718
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 3: What am I getting there?

719
00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,040
Speaker 1: Yea great, I'll go with that one then, because the

720
00:31:51,080 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: other ones are just terrible, like just terrible feelings. You

721
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 1: get like bad feelings about the other ones, you know

722
00:31:56,080 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 1: what I mean?

723
00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 3: Oh yeah, it's Sean. Any any disagree? Agree? I agree?

724
00:32:00,320 --> 00:32:02,960
Speaker 2: That's why, in good conscience I can't recommend me over

725
00:32:03,040 --> 00:32:05,200
Speaker 2: for any of these teams. Actually, like the under and

726
00:32:05,320 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 2: the other thing. You know, if it sounds like I'm

727
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 2: an under machine, well I pulled out the market. I

728
00:32:09,240 --> 00:32:10,920
Speaker 2: took away to the vague, so I got like the

729
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:14,000
Speaker 2: true odds that we're getting. And you know, the market

730
00:32:14,040 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 2: was around two hundred and fifty nine and a half wins,

731
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:18,360
Speaker 2: which is not even possible. There's two hundred and fifty

732
00:32:18,360 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 2: six games. I'm factoring in about one to two ties,

733
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 2: so you know, the market's adding about four and a

734
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 2: half to five wins as is, So that's just why

735
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:30,200
Speaker 2: in general, you're gonna hear me SayMore unders. But I

736
00:32:30,240 --> 00:32:33,280
Speaker 2: would pick on the Buccaneers under six and a half.

737
00:32:33,600 --> 00:32:35,680
Speaker 2: And I know I've been banging this run for Jamis

738
00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:39,160
Speaker 2: Winston fantasy. These two things are not correlated, so don't

739
00:32:39,200 --> 00:32:42,560
Speaker 2: at me. But you know I haven't projected for six wins,

740
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 2: only favorite in two games. They had some really bad

741
00:32:45,480 --> 00:32:48,640
Speaker 2: Andrew luck last year. I think Bruce arians should help.

742
00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:51,160
Speaker 2: So I think there's gonna be some spots where actually

743
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:53,840
Speaker 2: back the Buccaneers. But if you look at their schedule,

744
00:32:53,960 --> 00:32:55,760
Speaker 2: and you know, I do a lot of schedule analysis

745
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 2: when I'm doing team win totals, but they have a

746
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 2: brutal stretch starting Week four where they play at the Rams,

747
00:33:01,920 --> 00:33:04,880
Speaker 2: travel of the Saints, Then they play the Panthers in London,

748
00:33:05,040 --> 00:33:07,400
Speaker 2: that's their home game. Then they have a bye week,

749
00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 2: then they go at the Titans and then at the Seahawks,

750
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:13,840
Speaker 2: so they're on the road for basically two months, and

751
00:33:13,880 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 2: then they have finally another home game Week ten against

752
00:33:17,040 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 2: the Cardinals. So that's going to be a stretch where

753
00:33:18,840 --> 00:33:21,240
Speaker 2: I think that I'm going to be trying to bet

754
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,280
Speaker 2: against them. You know, travel schedule like that can really

755
00:33:24,360 --> 00:33:26,680
Speaker 2: have an impact on a team, So whoever made the

756
00:33:26,720 --> 00:33:29,520
Speaker 2: schedule definitely wanted to have some action on the under here.

757
00:33:29,760 --> 00:33:31,320
Speaker 2: So I think they're going to be a team that

758
00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:34,360
Speaker 2: people are overlooking a bit. But just based on that

759
00:33:34,400 --> 00:33:35,880
Speaker 2: schedule on I'm taking the under here.

760
00:33:36,120 --> 00:33:40,040
Speaker 3: Me personally, I'd probably actually take the Falcons. Like Cinty

761
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 3: you mentioned it, it kind of seems like the chalk like

762
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,080
Speaker 3: the trendy pick. But at minus one twenty, I think

763
00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:48,080
Speaker 3: this team has a pretty good shot going at winning

764
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:51,360
Speaker 3: nine games. I mean, Dirt Cutter is back, Matt Ryan

765
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:54,160
Speaker 3: has struggled in his first year under a new OC

766
00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:56,440
Speaker 3: these last couple of go rounds with Shanahan and then

767
00:33:56,480 --> 00:33:58,880
Speaker 3: with Steve Starkegian, But I think the fact that he's

768
00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 3: worked with Cutter before the fact that I think that

769
00:34:02,320 --> 00:34:06,000
Speaker 3: offense is going to be highly efficient. So I think

770
00:34:06,040 --> 00:34:08,680
Speaker 3: I lean Falcons. The market has kind of bet a

771
00:34:08,719 --> 00:34:10,520
Speaker 3: lo out of the value out of those. Let's go

772
00:34:10,560 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 3: to the NFC northward, let's go let's go reverse order.

773
00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:15,759
Speaker 3: Keep it going like that, and let's start with the

774
00:34:16,080 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 3: Green Bay Packers because their win total you know, the

775
00:34:19,800 --> 00:34:22,719
Speaker 3: over went three and one in Aaron Rodgers' first four seasons,

776
00:34:22,760 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 3: but this team has gone one in six toward the

777
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,799
Speaker 3: over since they're over their last four, so they haven't

778
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:34,359
Speaker 3: gotten over their win total since twenty fourteen. Cynthia, how

779
00:34:34,360 --> 00:34:35,640
Speaker 3: do you Monel feel about green Bay?

780
00:34:35,880 --> 00:34:37,880
Speaker 1: I think I'm higher on green Bay than other people.

781
00:34:38,000 --> 00:34:40,160
Speaker 1: I don't know, I'm not really sure. It's like the

782
00:34:40,239 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 1: harder part is like people in the option, you hear

783
00:34:42,360 --> 00:34:45,080
Speaker 1: all these narratives right, so I'm not sure if they're

784
00:34:45,560 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm they don't equate it to like

785
00:34:47,360 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 1: a number, right. I think green Bay could, I mean

786
00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: easily be a playoff team, like they could actually win

787
00:34:52,160 --> 00:34:54,360
Speaker 1: the division. Depends on how that Bears offense looks in

788
00:34:54,400 --> 00:34:57,560
Speaker 1: my opinion, so I have them ranked above the Vikings

789
00:34:57,600 --> 00:35:00,759
Speaker 1: below the Bears in terms of win total of right now.

790
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,839
Speaker 1: But it's not that far off like it could easily be.

791
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:06,880
Speaker 1: It could easily be the Packers winning the ed OFC North.

792
00:35:07,239 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 2: I'm similar to Cynthia, I haven't projected eight point nine.

793
00:35:11,080 --> 00:35:12,640
Speaker 2: I do like a lot of the moves they made

794
00:35:12,719 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 2: on defense. I think they really helped bolster it there.

795
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,279
Speaker 2: But you know when it comes to betting the over

796
00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 2: on the Packers, it's Aaron Rodgers has to play all

797
00:35:21,600 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 2: sixteen games and then I think they could do it.

798
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 2: So if he misses any time, then I think, you know,

799
00:35:27,440 --> 00:35:30,760
Speaker 2: they're going under again. Like you mentioned, since twenty fourteen,

800
00:35:31,120 --> 00:35:34,160
Speaker 2: I'm not interested in tying up money for four months

801
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:36,840
Speaker 2: on something like that. That's sort of out of my control.

802
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:39,080
Speaker 2: So they might be a team where I would consider,

803
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:41,600
Speaker 2: you know, betting to make the playoffs, depending on what

804
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,439
Speaker 2: odds I can get. But they're just they're a team

805
00:35:43,480 --> 00:35:45,799
Speaker 2: that has just a wide range of outcomes because it

806
00:35:45,880 --> 00:35:48,239
Speaker 2: all comes down to will Aaron Rodgers be healthy for

807
00:35:48,280 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 2: all sixteen games? So that one, I do like their upside,

808
00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:53,439
Speaker 2: but I wouldn't necessarily bet the over here.

809
00:35:53,680 --> 00:35:55,719
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm with you guys on that one. Let's talk

810
00:35:55,719 --> 00:35:58,880
Speaker 3: about the Bears twelve and four last year point differential

811
00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:01,520
Speaker 3: of eight point six did play a pretty easy schedule

812
00:36:01,560 --> 00:36:05,640
Speaker 3: though Vikings nine and seven, their point differential was only

813
00:36:05,719 --> 00:36:09,960
Speaker 3: one point two towards the positive Cynthia. These two teams,

814
00:36:09,960 --> 00:36:13,320
Speaker 3: the Bears and the Vikings, both at nine win totals

815
00:36:13,320 --> 00:36:16,000
Speaker 3: with minus one ten towards the over. So do you

816
00:36:16,040 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 3: really sect these two teams are even or do you

817
00:36:18,160 --> 00:36:19,399
Speaker 3: have a lien either way.

818
00:36:19,560 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: I don't think they're even, and I don't think it's close.

819
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,759
Speaker 1: Like I don't think I think the Bears are significantly

820
00:36:23,760 --> 00:36:27,200
Speaker 1: better because honestly, even though the Vikings have the killer defense,

821
00:36:27,400 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 1: the Bears have just a ridiculous defense, like it could

822
00:36:30,120 --> 00:36:32,040
Speaker 1: be may have a chance for it to be generational.

823
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:34,680
Speaker 1: So when you have a really good defense and you

824
00:36:34,760 --> 00:36:36,920
Speaker 1: have a good O line like they have, you're in

825
00:36:36,960 --> 00:36:39,440
Speaker 1: good shape. Like I like everything Anthony Miller, I like

826
00:36:39,520 --> 00:36:41,960
Speaker 1: everything David Montgomery. I'm all in on that. I stay

827
00:36:42,000 --> 00:36:44,759
Speaker 1: away from anything mitche Trubisky, but the Montgomery and the

828
00:36:44,880 --> 00:36:46,040
Speaker 1: Anthony Miller stuff is real.

829
00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:50,640
Speaker 3: Whoah see. Now, I like Trubisky. I think that Trubisky

830
00:36:50,680 --> 00:36:52,640
Speaker 3: in terms of like fantasy.

831
00:36:52,640 --> 00:36:55,600
Speaker 1: Fantasy, but anything I've seen about him that people might

832
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 1: bet on, I'm That's what I'm talking about.

833
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:58,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, So you know what happened. I think it was

834
00:36:58,880 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 3: like a month ago or something like that. Somebody got

835
00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 3: down heavily on Mitch Trubisky's MVP adds. So they like

836
00:37:05,680 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 3: moved from I guess they're like forty or fifty to

837
00:37:07,600 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 3: one to like like twenty to one or something.

838
00:37:10,160 --> 00:37:12,480
Speaker 1: I thought that I saw that, I saw all of that.

839
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 2: You can still get them at fifty to one right now.

840
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:18,400
Speaker 3: Oh so, oh so we're good. I mean, I like

841
00:37:18,440 --> 00:37:21,120
Speaker 3: GoF better, but I think what they did in year

842
00:37:21,200 --> 00:37:23,640
Speaker 3: one under Matt Naggy, I think you have to throw

843
00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:27,320
Speaker 3: out that whole John Fox, you know, year Trubisky is another.

844
00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:29,839
Speaker 3: It's like a poor man's goth situation almost where it's

845
00:37:29,840 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 3: not about the quarterback. It's about the fact that everyone

846
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 3: he throws too, I think can make plays. I mean,

847
00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:37,040
Speaker 3: you got all these gadget guys that can score a

848
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 3: long touchdowns. You got kind of re upped in the

849
00:37:39,120 --> 00:37:42,560
Speaker 3: backfield with guys who can catch passes alongside Cohen, Alan

850
00:37:42,640 --> 00:37:45,600
Speaker 3: Robinson just turning twenty six, which is usually when wide

851
00:37:45,640 --> 00:37:48,319
Speaker 3: receiver's Pete Cynthia. You mentioned Anthony Miller, who I think

852
00:37:48,400 --> 00:37:50,560
Speaker 3: is going to break out in a big way this year.

853
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:52,560
Speaker 3: So it wouldn't be crazy. It's just I think the

854
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:55,080
Speaker 3: defense might you know, be as Sean You've talked about,

855
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,719
Speaker 3: the defense might be too good for them to really

856
00:37:57,719 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 3: be throwing it all around too too much. But in fantasy,

857
00:38:01,120 --> 00:38:05,640
Speaker 3: I certainly do like the rushing kind of floor ceiling combo.

858
00:38:05,719 --> 00:38:09,160
Speaker 3: No one besides Mahomes had more thirty point fantasy games

859
00:38:09,200 --> 00:38:13,759
Speaker 3: last year than Mitch Trubisky. Let's talk about Cynthia. Let's

860
00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:15,719
Speaker 3: talk about your lines. Talked about them a little bit.

861
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 1: Go ahead, he sady.

862
00:38:19,200 --> 00:38:20,960
Speaker 3: I mean, if you want to be a trader, you

863
00:38:21,000 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 3: can get plus one thirty under six and a half.

864
00:38:23,880 --> 00:38:25,600
Speaker 3: I mean that's not tupting at all.

865
00:38:26,000 --> 00:38:29,640
Speaker 1: First and foremost, I would never, never, ever, ever in

866
00:38:29,680 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 1: a million, you're able to stomach that. The second, if

867
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:34,759
Speaker 1: you know anything about Lines fans, you know, we're all

868
00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:37,760
Speaker 1: self suffering. Like we all like talk about Bernie Sanders

869
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:40,279
Speaker 1: as if you were so playing. We all hope for

870
00:38:40,320 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 1: the best, and they're like, well we we You have

871
00:38:41,719 --> 00:38:43,600
Speaker 1: good colors, you know, and like if you ever go

872
00:38:43,600 --> 00:38:45,560
Speaker 1: to ford Field, you can get a great euro they

873
00:38:45,560 --> 00:38:48,719
Speaker 1: have great Greek food and Detroit fun fact. But other

874
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 1: than that, it's like, all right, keep going moving along.

875
00:38:52,040 --> 00:38:53,960
Speaker 2: You can get them at minus five hundred to miss

876
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:57,759
Speaker 2: the playoffs if you're interested too. No, but I don't

877
00:38:57,760 --> 00:38:58,960
Speaker 2: really have anything good to say.

878
00:38:59,080 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 3: Sold pass, Let's go to the NFC East Philadelphia is

879
00:39:03,680 --> 00:39:05,879
Speaker 3: a team. I think a lot of people are high

880
00:39:05,920 --> 00:39:09,400
Speaker 3: on their win total is up at ten now minus

881
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 3: one ten either way. So Carson Wentz though last couple

882
00:39:13,040 --> 00:39:16,400
Speaker 3: of seasons suffered some injuries. You factor that in or

883
00:39:16,480 --> 00:39:18,800
Speaker 3: is that just kind of like a random like sample

884
00:39:18,880 --> 00:39:19,719
Speaker 3: size variance thing.

885
00:39:20,239 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 1: I don't think it's a random sample sized aeriance thing.

886
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:23,920
Speaker 1: I think it's a risk. Like I think it's a

887
00:39:24,280 --> 00:39:26,400
Speaker 1: there's a style of play, and there's a I mean,

888
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:28,480
Speaker 1: because that's a good old line he's standing behind. So

889
00:39:28,520 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: it's not like it's not like he's playing for the Texans,

890
00:39:31,440 --> 00:39:35,120
Speaker 1: right Like, there's there's just an interesting there's an interesting

891
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,640
Speaker 1: thing that happens. And by the way, your backup quarterback

892
00:39:37,719 --> 00:39:40,520
Speaker 1: matters more than people think, right Like I was talking

893
00:39:40,560 --> 00:39:42,520
Speaker 1: to I was doing some work with Like I said,

894
00:39:42,520 --> 00:39:44,399
Speaker 1: I have Chiefs on the brain because I was just there.

895
00:39:44,400 --> 00:39:47,760
Speaker 1: But Chad Henny is backing up Patrick Mahomes this season,

896
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:51,640
Speaker 1: and it's just interesting to see like how Henny like

897
00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:53,799
Speaker 1: gets it and can read it and can help the

898
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,400
Speaker 1: defense and help It's not just like in the in

899
00:39:56,400 --> 00:39:57,800
Speaker 1: the situation of like if they have to come in

900
00:39:57,880 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 1: during the game. It's like the day in and day

901
00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:02,040
Speaker 1: out elements of being a backup and you go from

902
00:40:02,080 --> 00:40:04,160
Speaker 1: having a guy like Nick Fole to having someone who

903
00:40:04,239 --> 00:40:07,200
Speaker 1: is way, way, way less experience than Nate Sudfeldt. And

904
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:08,880
Speaker 1: it's not that they don't like him, and I think

905
00:40:08,920 --> 00:40:11,440
Speaker 1: they do like Nate a lot, but he's just super unproven.

906
00:40:11,520 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 1: He doesn't have that like game swagger of like Chad

907
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,280
Speaker 1: Haney being crushed like fifty five times in the season.

908
00:40:17,320 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 1: You know, like there's something to be said about the

909
00:40:19,640 --> 00:40:22,240
Speaker 1: other factors or the backup quarterback that aren't the stuff

910
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 1: that are necessarily even what happens when they come into games, right,

911
00:40:25,760 --> 00:40:29,520
Speaker 1: And that is a huge interesting note for the egos.

912
00:40:29,520 --> 00:40:31,799
Speaker 1: That's the risk for me, Like the super Bowl is

913
00:40:32,000 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 1: totally achievable for them, but it will that backup quarterback

914
00:40:35,440 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: situation is probably the scariest part of their whole team,

915
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:38,720
Speaker 1: and their whole team is stacked.

916
00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 3: That's why the win total is where it is. But

917
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:43,080
Speaker 3: that's a great point. The benefit of kind of having

918
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:45,520
Speaker 3: a veteran backup and a guy that you can kind

919
00:40:45,560 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 3: of look to and learn from and a guy that's

920
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,040
Speaker 3: been there and done that, like you know, word was

921
00:40:51,080 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 3: that Weds did have some and this was admitted by

922
00:40:53,239 --> 00:40:55,719
Speaker 3: him that he had some leadership issues and he wants

923
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:58,240
Speaker 3: to get better at that. So think of a veteran

924
00:40:58,560 --> 00:41:01,200
Speaker 3: kind of guy back there would certainly help. It will

925
00:41:01,239 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 3: be interesting.

926
00:41:03,400 --> 00:41:05,439
Speaker 1: I might take that over though, because ten actually look

927
00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:07,400
Speaker 1: at their schedules, I feel like they're going to Icegate

928
00:41:07,440 --> 00:41:09,440
Speaker 1: in what for me, I think super Bowl. They have

929
00:41:09,480 --> 00:41:12,080
Speaker 1: Super Bowl aspirations. Obviously, it's be like, that's the one

930
00:41:12,080 --> 00:41:13,520
Speaker 1: thing I'm worried about when it comes to super Bowl

931
00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 1: at ten seems like a like, it seems like a

932
00:41:15,600 --> 00:41:17,600
Speaker 1: let Like I'm looking right now every single game in

933
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 1: my model, and I'm looking at like the order and everything,

934
00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:21,719
Speaker 1: and I'm like, well, this seems achievable.

935
00:41:21,760 --> 00:41:24,760
Speaker 2: For sure, they're the eighth ranked team in my model,

936
00:41:24,840 --> 00:41:28,279
Speaker 2: but you know, the fourth highest win total because of

937
00:41:28,280 --> 00:41:30,800
Speaker 2: that schedule that I have them having the third easiest

938
00:41:30,840 --> 00:41:33,400
Speaker 2: schedule in the NFL. But you know, going back to

939
00:41:33,880 --> 00:41:36,400
Speaker 2: you know, Carson Wentzon Nick Foles towards the end of

940
00:41:36,480 --> 00:41:38,640
Speaker 2: last year, I only had that being you know, a

941
00:41:38,760 --> 00:41:41,280
Speaker 2: zero to one point drop off between the two whenever

942
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,440
Speaker 2: Foles had to step in. But yeah, with Nate Sudfeld

943
00:41:44,440 --> 00:41:46,480
Speaker 2: being the backup, now that's huge. That's going to be

944
00:41:46,520 --> 00:41:49,200
Speaker 2: around a five to six point drop against the spread,

945
00:41:49,280 --> 00:41:51,960
Speaker 2: So you know, betting this, it's sort of going back

946
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,239
Speaker 2: to the Packers that where a lot of this is

947
00:41:54,239 --> 00:41:56,319
Speaker 2: going to come down to injury luck. And if if

948
00:41:56,320 --> 00:41:58,400
Speaker 2: Wentz can stay healthy all sixteen games, I think they

949
00:41:58,440 --> 00:42:01,719
Speaker 2: crushed this over because of the schedule and because of

950
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:04,720
Speaker 2: their depth. You know, they're stacked from top to bottom.

951
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:08,080
Speaker 2: So if Wentz stays healthy all sixteen games, they crushed

952
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,080
Speaker 2: you over. If you miss this any time, it goes under,

953
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 2: And I'm just I'm interested in betting on something like

954
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 2: that that I don't really have a good angle on

955
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:15,480
Speaker 2: or control over.

956
00:42:15,880 --> 00:42:18,160
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, and part of that schedule is the

957
00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:20,879
Speaker 3: fact that you play the Giants twice and you play

958
00:42:20,920 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 3: the Washington Redskins twice. I mean, you can get even

959
00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:27,480
Speaker 3: money on the Giants over six wins. You can get

960
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 3: plus one twenty on Washington over six point five. Do

961
00:42:33,520 --> 00:42:35,520
Speaker 3: either of those teams have any hope of winning seven

962
00:42:35,560 --> 00:42:36,120
Speaker 3: games this year?

963
00:42:36,480 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 1: When it comes to Giants, stay the heck away from

964
00:42:38,440 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 1: them in almost everything, because like I didn't see allegedly

965
00:42:42,000 --> 00:42:44,760
Speaker 1: Golden pates the Pillows today, I haven't seen any results

966
00:42:44,800 --> 00:42:47,120
Speaker 1: of that. It's too early for me to even think

967
00:42:47,160 --> 00:42:49,839
Speaker 1: about them and that I just stay away. I don't

968
00:42:49,880 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 1: think that sixes. I don't think it's going to be

969
00:42:52,000 --> 00:42:55,200
Speaker 1: I think maybe the Jets have a better season. Then

970
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,239
Speaker 1: when it comes to Washington, when you talk about like,

971
00:42:58,239 --> 00:43:01,360
Speaker 1: I would love to know Sean's take on their injury

972
00:43:01,400 --> 00:43:04,040
Speaker 1: situation because that is more than bad luck.

973
00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. So you know, if I were a pick,

974
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,120
Speaker 2: it'd be neither as well. You know, a couple of

975
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:11,400
Speaker 2: months ago, I would have said the Redskins, but you know,

976
00:43:11,640 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 2: ever since Ruben Foster towards ACL and then now this

977
00:43:15,239 --> 00:43:17,560
Speaker 2: issue with Trent Williams. You mentioned the offensive line, they

978
00:43:17,640 --> 00:43:20,200
Speaker 2: might have to trade them away. Yeah, so that's going

979
00:43:20,280 --> 00:43:20,960
Speaker 2: to be a problem.

980
00:43:21,080 --> 00:43:24,880
Speaker 1: They're all very injury prob very scary situation exactly.

981
00:43:24,960 --> 00:43:27,040
Speaker 2: And then you know the Giants you mentioned, you know,

982
00:43:27,080 --> 00:43:29,760
Speaker 2: a Golden Tate and then they have Sterling, a Shepherd's

983
00:43:29,840 --> 00:43:32,440
Speaker 2: questionable week one, Corey Coleman's and I are neither one

984
00:43:32,520 --> 00:43:34,719
Speaker 2: of those guys would really impact the spread. But when

985
00:43:34,760 --> 00:43:37,480
Speaker 2: you have a cluster of injuries at a position, yes,

986
00:43:37,520 --> 00:43:40,000
Speaker 2: that actually does matter. So I'm not going to just

987
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 2: pile it on to Raybond. But I don't think the

988
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:45,160
Speaker 2: Giants are going to be you know, Sevale team either,

989
00:43:45,719 --> 00:43:47,240
Speaker 2: so I'm just passing on both.

990
00:43:47,600 --> 00:43:50,040
Speaker 3: I mean, we've had an injury at the cornerback position

991
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:50,680
Speaker 3: for years now.

992
00:43:50,760 --> 00:43:55,359
Speaker 1: So I'm an Eli fan and not like my math

993
00:43:55,440 --> 00:43:57,720
Speaker 1: is more of an Eli fan than I think public

994
00:43:57,800 --> 00:44:00,400
Speaker 1: sentiment is. Like people with my big things, like, I

995
00:44:00,400 --> 00:44:02,080
Speaker 1: don't know what public sentiment is because I can't let

996
00:44:02,120 --> 00:44:04,000
Speaker 1: it buy its me. So I just feel like people

997
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:05,520
Speaker 1: pile it on Eli a lot, and I don't think

998
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 1: I mean, I think Eli is not like as bad

999
00:44:08,800 --> 00:44:11,000
Speaker 1: as I think a lot of New York media, at

1000
00:44:11,080 --> 00:44:13,680
Speaker 1: least that I've heard, says like, I think Eli's better

1001
00:44:13,680 --> 00:44:14,680
Speaker 1: than people give him credit for.

1002
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:16,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, And that's why I've been saying, you know,

1003
00:44:16,719 --> 00:44:18,680
Speaker 2: towards the end of the year, I think the Giants

1004
00:44:18,719 --> 00:44:21,000
Speaker 2: are gonna have more of a depth going from Eli

1005
00:44:21,120 --> 00:44:23,640
Speaker 2: or Daniel Jones is probably worth two to three points

1006
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:26,600
Speaker 2: on the spread, but you know the difference between case

1007
00:44:26,680 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 2: Cam and Dwayne Haskins might be a point or two maybe,

1008
00:44:30,200 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 2: So I just think there's more downward, you know, dip

1009
00:44:33,880 --> 00:44:37,240
Speaker 2: possibility for the Giants once they decided to go Throughokie.

1010
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:41,120
Speaker 3: Is that sewn? Is that a situation where is there

1011
00:44:41,239 --> 00:44:43,720
Speaker 3: a lower floor in a higher ceiling Because the reason

1012
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:47,320
Speaker 3: that I personally am down on ELI is because I

1013
00:44:47,360 --> 00:44:49,160
Speaker 3: think he puts up a lot of empty numbers, right,

1014
00:44:49,239 --> 00:44:51,520
Speaker 3: so he can put up a high completion percentage, you

1015
00:44:51,520 --> 00:44:53,160
Speaker 3: can get the ball out quick, but it's not doing

1016
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:54,520
Speaker 3: He's not doing it in the same way as Tom

1017
00:44:54,560 --> 00:44:56,759
Speaker 3: Brady or Drew Brees is doing it. He's kind of

1018
00:44:56,800 --> 00:44:59,640
Speaker 3: just dumping down these inefficient plays and you look up

1019
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:01,719
Speaker 3: and there's hunting on third down. And they had a

1020
00:45:01,719 --> 00:45:05,279
Speaker 3: pretty good receiving core for most of that year and

1021
00:45:05,320 --> 00:45:07,520
Speaker 3: they still couldn't really they only moved the ball in

1022
00:45:07,640 --> 00:45:10,520
Speaker 3: like spurts. They were extremely inconsistent. So I guess, like,

1023
00:45:10,560 --> 00:45:13,280
Speaker 3: do you guys, do you think that Daniel Jones could

1024
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,480
Speaker 3: potentially give them a higher ceiling or is it just

1025
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 3: it's just it would be a disaster.

1026
00:45:17,520 --> 00:45:19,960
Speaker 2: Well, I'm not here to defend Eli or anything, so

1027
00:45:20,280 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 2: you know, I agree with you there, but I think

1028
00:45:21,640 --> 00:45:23,760
Speaker 2: it does go back to sort of you know, Odell

1029
00:45:23,880 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 2: being gone and then this cluster injury situation. They have

1030
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,960
Speaker 2: a receiver where yeah, you're right, maybe Daniel Jones might

1031
00:45:30,080 --> 00:45:31,919
Speaker 2: pice it up because you know, he has at least

1032
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 2: the ability to get out of the pocket and run,

1033
00:45:33,880 --> 00:45:36,640
Speaker 2: so that might keep defenses on their toes. But just

1034
00:45:36,840 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 2: it's a situation where I think once they go to

1035
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,759
Speaker 2: Daniel Jones, they're they're going to be in tank mode

1036
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:43,960
Speaker 2: and looking to get up to high HI draft pick

1037
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:46,600
Speaker 2: in the twenty twenty droughts. So I think it will

1038
00:45:46,640 --> 00:45:49,360
Speaker 2: be a move where they're okay with losing games if

1039
00:45:49,400 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 2: they can get Daniel Jones some experience.

1040
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:55,600
Speaker 3: Only hope and I purposely left the Cowboys for last

1041
00:45:55,640 --> 00:45:57,920
Speaker 3: Cynthia because I wanted to get your thoughts on this

1042
00:45:58,080 --> 00:46:02,080
Speaker 3: kind of a popular topic, especially amongst you know, the

1043
00:46:02,160 --> 00:46:06,360
Speaker 3: analytics crowd and whatnot. But you know, there's team running

1044
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:08,440
Speaker 3: backs don't matter. You know a lot of people are

1045
00:46:08,480 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 3: kind of saying, got to go into this, You got

1046
00:46:10,560 --> 00:46:12,880
Speaker 3: to talk about this because yeah, like since you do

1047
00:46:12,960 --> 00:46:14,440
Speaker 3: running backs matter? Point blank period?

1048
00:46:14,760 --> 00:46:18,480
Speaker 1: Yes, the answer is yes, your strategy matters. First of all,

1049
00:46:18,680 --> 00:46:22,000
Speaker 1: to say anything like doesn't matter, doesn't matter, doesn't like no, no, no.

1050
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:25,160
Speaker 1: The football ebbs and flows, we all know this. When

1051
00:46:25,200 --> 00:46:27,480
Speaker 1: everyone digs and they zag and then that's how they work.

1052
00:46:27,719 --> 00:46:30,879
Speaker 1: Like when the Patriots stop running on first down, then

1053
00:46:30,920 --> 00:46:33,000
Speaker 1: everyone else copies it and then they start running again

1054
00:46:33,040 --> 00:46:35,840
Speaker 1: the playoff. I think they average twenty six rushing attempts

1055
00:46:35,880 --> 00:46:37,719
Speaker 1: per game on first down in the playoff. Like, the

1056
00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:41,320
Speaker 1: point is, is your strategy matter and your personnel aligning

1057
00:46:41,320 --> 00:46:44,279
Speaker 1: with that strategy matters. Even more so if you have

1058
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:47,319
Speaker 1: a theory that running backs are a committee works for you,

1059
00:46:47,600 --> 00:46:49,759
Speaker 1: and then you can execute that with your personnel. Maybe

1060
00:46:49,760 --> 00:46:53,000
Speaker 1: an Austin Eckler and Justin Jackson situation. Maybe you have

1061
00:46:53,080 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 1: an Ezekiel Elliott who you believe is an every down

1062
00:46:55,600 --> 00:46:58,560
Speaker 1: back and you're going to use his workload as such. Like,

1063
00:46:59,120 --> 00:47:01,359
Speaker 1: I don't think there is one answer for that. There

1064
00:47:01,400 --> 00:47:05,520
Speaker 1: are philosophical There are philosophical alignments that have to happen

1065
00:47:05,600 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 1: because your O line blocking scheme has a huge impact

1066
00:47:09,080 --> 00:47:12,840
Speaker 1: in terms of your running back sufficiency, your potential personnel

1067
00:47:12,960 --> 00:47:15,879
Speaker 1: on you know, like do you play a lot of

1068
00:47:15,960 --> 00:47:18,200
Speaker 1: eleven or do you put with so three wide receiver

1069
00:47:18,280 --> 00:47:21,879
Speaker 1: sets or do you like use twelve? So two tight ends?

1070
00:47:21,960 --> 00:47:23,960
Speaker 1: De'ts how many? How many tight ends are you going

1071
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,000
Speaker 1: to have? And are they really tight ends? Are they

1072
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:29,239
Speaker 1: actually lined up as a wide receiver. Your alignment and

1073
00:47:29,280 --> 00:47:32,759
Speaker 1: your philosophy and your personnel. They all dictate how much

1074
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:36,240
Speaker 1: any position matters. So to say any one position doesn't

1075
00:47:36,280 --> 00:47:39,600
Speaker 1: matter or does is, in my opinion, fault because it

1076
00:47:39,640 --> 00:47:42,600
Speaker 1: really has to be the alignment of what you're trying

1077
00:47:42,600 --> 00:47:45,279
Speaker 1: to execute against the types of defenses you're faith in

1078
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,279
Speaker 1: and how well you're able to do so, Like there's

1079
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:51,600
Speaker 1: just no one answer for everything. Absolutely, And Sean, do

1080
00:47:51,640 --> 00:47:53,200
Speaker 1: you want me to get off my cell blocks? Now?

1081
00:47:53,360 --> 00:47:55,759
Speaker 3: I had no further question. I mean, that was just

1082
00:47:56,040 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 3: you just said it.

1083
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:57,120
Speaker 1: You know.

1084
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:59,160
Speaker 3: I think I think that people kind of take that

1085
00:47:59,400 --> 00:48:02,359
Speaker 3: and run with it, you know, way too far. Where Yeah, sure,

1086
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,600
Speaker 3: is the position a little bit devalued in the sense

1087
00:48:05,640 --> 00:48:08,560
Speaker 3: that you don't necessarily need to pay a guy as

1088
00:48:08,560 --> 00:48:10,680
Speaker 3: top dollar and the market kind of corrected there and

1089
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 3: kind of realize that, and that's why you are seeing

1090
00:48:13,080 --> 00:48:15,399
Speaker 3: more of these contract disputes. So that's fine. But yeah,

1091
00:48:15,480 --> 00:48:17,719
Speaker 3: I think it's it would be silly to look at

1092
00:48:17,719 --> 00:48:20,839
Speaker 3: the Cowboys and say that Ezekiel Elliott, you know, doesn't matter.

1093
00:48:20,840 --> 00:48:23,160
Speaker 1: I think it would be ridiculous, like the Giants fan

1094
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:25,120
Speaker 1: to say that sae Quon Barkley doesn't make it different.

1095
00:48:25,239 --> 00:48:26,760
Speaker 3: I talk about that all the time, you know, it's

1096
00:48:26,840 --> 00:48:28,480
Speaker 3: not safe. And that's and that's again why I think

1097
00:48:28,480 --> 00:48:29,920
Speaker 3: it comes back to Ey with the Giant.

1098
00:48:30,000 --> 00:48:32,399
Speaker 1: There are just like there are different tiers of wide

1099
00:48:32,480 --> 00:48:35,920
Speaker 1: receivers and quarterbacks and defensive ends. There are different tiers

1100
00:48:35,920 --> 00:48:38,920
Speaker 1: of running backs. And the problem really lies in the

1101
00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:42,640
Speaker 1: inability to value contracts in a way that reflects with

1102
00:48:42,719 --> 00:48:45,359
Speaker 1: someone's past catcher or not. Remember a million years ago,

1103
00:48:45,400 --> 00:48:47,560
Speaker 1: I mean like five years ago when Jimmy Graham, a

1104
00:48:47,600 --> 00:48:49,560
Speaker 1: tight end, was trying to ask for a wide receiver

1105
00:48:49,840 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 1: money and everyone's like, what the heck, and then it

1106
00:48:51,960 --> 00:48:54,240
Speaker 1: like just didn't net out in anything good for anyone.

1107
00:48:54,640 --> 00:48:57,879
Speaker 1: Like the problem is is that the way that football works,

1108
00:48:57,880 --> 00:49:01,520
Speaker 1: and especially like the dynamic of evaluations and how the

1109
00:49:01,560 --> 00:49:04,240
Speaker 1: market dictates the price, and you know, all these different

1110
00:49:04,280 --> 00:49:07,759
Speaker 1: dynamics that are working kind of making quarterbacks may be

1111
00:49:07,920 --> 00:49:11,640
Speaker 1: potentially overvalued certain ones or under you know, the value

1112
00:49:11,719 --> 00:49:14,319
Speaker 1: is determined by the market, and if the market's not there,

1113
00:49:14,520 --> 00:49:17,000
Speaker 1: then it's a tricky dynamic. But then you also have

1114
00:49:17,040 --> 00:49:19,160
Speaker 1: to realize there's really three numbers you need to look at,

1115
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 1: the minimum guarantee, the likely number you're going to get.

1116
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: And people don't talk about this number because it's hard

1117
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:26,040
Speaker 1: to explain on TV, but like you know, you ain't

1118
00:49:26,040 --> 00:49:28,399
Speaker 1: have a contract with a minimum guarantee of a low

1119
00:49:28,480 --> 00:49:31,160
Speaker 1: number and then like your likely number is actually much

1120
00:49:31,200 --> 00:49:33,839
Speaker 1: higher because the incentives are for things like showing up,

1121
00:49:34,200 --> 00:49:37,200
Speaker 1: making the roster, stuff that is going to proc very

1122
00:49:37,239 --> 00:49:39,680
Speaker 1: high percentage chance of happening. But the way that they

1123
00:49:39,719 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 1: structure their caps just has to reflect it in a

1124
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:44,640
Speaker 1: different way, and then that top end number almost never

1125
00:49:44,680 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 1: gets achieved. Right, Like Michael Thomas, as much as you

1126
00:49:47,360 --> 00:49:49,560
Speaker 1: might think, and I think he's an amazing receiver, he's

1127
00:49:49,560 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: not going to make one hundred million whatever the top

1128
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,880
Speaker 1: of his contract is because in order to do that,

1129
00:49:53,920 --> 00:49:55,839
Speaker 1: like the same type of a Super Bowl every single year, whin,

1130
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:57,839
Speaker 1: So you got to look at that likely number, which

1131
00:49:57,840 --> 00:49:59,719
Speaker 1: for him I think is also very high, and but

1132
00:49:59,760 --> 00:50:02,719
Speaker 1: that's more the one to base your valuation off of

1133
00:50:02,760 --> 00:50:03,320
Speaker 1: in my opinion.

1134
00:50:03,800 --> 00:50:06,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think that's something that I kind of

1135
00:50:06,560 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 3: learned when when when digging more into the Le'Veon Bell

1136
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 3: situation from last year, because you know a lot of

1137
00:50:11,200 --> 00:50:15,280
Speaker 3: people comparing you know, the Melvin Gordon situation, Zeke situation,

1138
00:50:15,360 --> 00:50:18,040
Speaker 3: but Le'Veon Bell was not signed like he didn't sign

1139
00:50:18,080 --> 00:50:21,040
Speaker 3: his franchise tender, and he got offered a deal that

1140
00:50:21,120 --> 00:50:23,600
Speaker 3: everyone thought was was better. But when you look into it,

1141
00:50:23,800 --> 00:50:27,840
Speaker 3: the Jets deal probably ends up being better than that

1142
00:50:27,960 --> 00:50:30,080
Speaker 3: than the deal of the Steelers offered, but you could

1143
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:32,640
Speaker 3: never really tell by just seeing the numbers flow past

1144
00:50:32,640 --> 00:50:35,480
Speaker 3: the TV or hearing somebody talk about it for two seconds.

1145
00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:36,839
Speaker 3: I think that's why a lot of these backs are

1146
00:50:36,920 --> 00:50:39,279
Speaker 3: kind of like looking at him as saying, Okay, you know,

1147
00:50:39,320 --> 00:50:40,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna kind of do what I have to do

1148
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:43,920
Speaker 3: to get paid as well. Sean, what is your kind

1149
00:50:43,960 --> 00:50:47,160
Speaker 3: of prognosis for Zeke and how many games he's going

1150
00:50:47,160 --> 00:50:49,120
Speaker 3: to miss? If any? When are you going to start

1151
00:50:49,120 --> 00:50:51,600
Speaker 3: getting worried and start docking him in your projection?

1152
00:50:52,400 --> 00:50:55,080
Speaker 2: I mean, hell of f I know that's something that

1153
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:58,840
Speaker 2: we're definitely in the range where I'm really worried, so

1154
00:50:58,920 --> 00:51:01,399
Speaker 2: I'm probably not take him fourth overall. I alway said

1155
00:51:01,440 --> 00:51:04,040
Speaker 2: that two days ago, but that's how the situation is.

1156
00:51:04,440 --> 00:51:07,640
Speaker 2: We're allowed to update our opinion, so I think I passed.

1157
00:51:07,680 --> 00:51:08,200
Speaker 1: Well, you're.

1158
00:51:09,760 --> 00:51:10,920
Speaker 3: That's what I've learned from Twitter.

1159
00:51:11,239 --> 00:51:13,600
Speaker 2: That's yeah, That's why I avoid hot takes because I

1160
00:51:13,920 --> 00:51:17,319
Speaker 2: want to be able to change my opinion accordingly. So yeah,

1161
00:51:17,360 --> 00:51:19,400
Speaker 2: I'm very worried about it now. I think having the

1162
00:51:19,400 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 2: fourth pick in a draft is probably the worst position

1163
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:25,319
Speaker 2: to be in right now. But you know, just going

1164
00:51:25,320 --> 00:51:27,480
Speaker 2: back to the whole, running backs don't matter. If thing

1165
00:51:27,600 --> 00:51:29,920
Speaker 2: I tend to agree with Cynthia, it's it's a bit

1166
00:51:29,960 --> 00:51:32,320
Speaker 2: overblown when it comes to you know, like points, spreads

1167
00:51:32,360 --> 00:51:35,040
Speaker 2: or something. I think a more accurate thing then that

1168
00:51:35,120 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 2: might be only quarterbacks matter if you want to go

1169
00:51:37,760 --> 00:51:41,279
Speaker 2: that route. But they play the Giants Week one, and

1170
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:44,640
Speaker 2: right now they're minus eight. If Zeke does hold out

1171
00:51:44,640 --> 00:51:46,759
Speaker 2: and he doesn't play, I think it'll only drop to

1172
00:51:46,800 --> 00:51:49,920
Speaker 2: about seven and a half, maybe seven, but that's a

1173
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:52,520
Speaker 2: key number, so I don't even if they'll drop that far.

1174
00:51:52,600 --> 00:51:55,440
Speaker 2: So I think even a leap back like Zeke probably

1175
00:51:55,440 --> 00:51:58,279
Speaker 2: only impacts the spread by a half to point. But

1176
00:51:58,360 --> 00:52:00,279
Speaker 2: that's still a lot for running backs, so I think

1177
00:52:00,280 --> 00:52:02,520
Speaker 2: he does matter. But yeah, when it comes to any

1178
00:52:02,560 --> 00:52:05,640
Speaker 2: player outside of QB, it's really hard for an individual

1179
00:52:05,680 --> 00:52:08,040
Speaker 2: player to affect the spread. But still, you need to

1180
00:52:08,040 --> 00:52:11,120
Speaker 2: construct your roster top to bottom in order to win games,

1181
00:52:11,120 --> 00:52:13,120
Speaker 2: and I you know, I think Zeke is definitely top

1182
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:15,279
Speaker 2: three back in the league. So that's why I don't

1183
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:17,920
Speaker 2: think it's fair just to say running backs don't matter

1184
00:52:17,960 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 2: as a whole. I think it's much more complic than that.

1185
00:52:20,680 --> 00:52:22,919
Speaker 2: And Cynthia pretty much hit the nail on the head

1186
00:52:22,960 --> 00:52:26,799
Speaker 2: with her soapbox speech there. I agree completely.

1187
00:52:27,160 --> 00:52:28,960
Speaker 1: Just so you know, I wouldn't be worried about Zeke

1188
00:52:29,040 --> 00:52:31,279
Speaker 1: not coming. I think he's there. I think he'll be there.

1189
00:52:31,560 --> 00:52:34,120
Speaker 3: I mean, I hope so because he is. It's just

1190
00:52:34,160 --> 00:52:36,319
Speaker 3: so difficult to project him because miss games are just

1191
00:52:36,520 --> 00:52:38,560
Speaker 3: it's not one of those things you can easily just

1192
00:52:38,640 --> 00:52:40,279
Speaker 3: kind of get a handle on. You know, there's is

1193
00:52:40,320 --> 00:52:43,200
Speaker 3: I don't think there's a necessarily a right way. One

1194
00:52:43,200 --> 00:52:45,280
Speaker 3: thing I can say for the Cowboy they did build

1195
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:48,239
Speaker 3: through the offensive line, so if a situation like this

1196
00:52:48,320 --> 00:52:50,560
Speaker 3: where to happen, they could survive for a week here

1197
00:52:50,560 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 3: and especially you know, to start for you're at home

1198
00:52:52,239 --> 00:52:54,120
Speaker 3: against the Giants. If it were to drag into too

1199
00:52:54,120 --> 00:52:56,680
Speaker 3: week one, I think they would, you know, be fine.

1200
00:52:56,920 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 1: They're gonna be fine til week four when they play

1201
00:52:58,640 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 1: the same But I'm going to tell you I do

1202
00:53:00,800 --> 00:53:04,200
Speaker 1: not think that happens like I will. I would be

1203
00:53:04,480 --> 00:53:09,520
Speaker 1: so surprised if that didn't happen good enough. I'm not

1204
00:53:09,640 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 1: a I'm not I don't break news that's not my jab.

1205
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:13,760
Speaker 1: And I will say I have to give a shout

1206
00:53:13,760 --> 00:53:16,560
Speaker 1: out to my There's the guys, the Ravens, guys, Cowboys,

1207
00:53:16,560 --> 00:53:18,959
Speaker 1: they're like tied for who I think does the best

1208
00:53:19,000 --> 00:53:21,520
Speaker 1: analytics in terms of team level and the league. But

1209
00:53:21,640 --> 00:53:23,680
Speaker 1: my guy at the COB was a big o line guy,

1210
00:53:23,800 --> 00:53:25,680
Speaker 1: so like I got to give him a little give

1211
00:53:25,760 --> 00:53:28,320
Speaker 1: him a little luck. He he always helps me understand,

1212
00:53:28,360 --> 00:53:29,840
Speaker 1: like how to how to look at things when I

1213
00:53:29,840 --> 00:53:30,800
Speaker 1: get when I get tricked.

1214
00:53:31,280 --> 00:53:33,719
Speaker 3: Super Bowl matchup, let's talk before we get out of here,

1215
00:53:33,920 --> 00:53:37,319
Speaker 3: let's talk super Bowl. Who's your best bet Cynthia to

1216
00:53:37,400 --> 00:53:39,839
Speaker 3: represent in the NFC and who do you think they're

1217
00:53:39,880 --> 00:53:40,240
Speaker 3: up against?

1218
00:53:40,239 --> 00:53:43,279
Speaker 1: The Eaves who I don't have the I don't have

1219
00:53:43,280 --> 00:53:45,000
Speaker 1: any of the market information from me because I work

1220
00:53:45,040 --> 00:53:47,360
Speaker 1: in the NFL and I obviously can't know that stuff.

1221
00:53:48,239 --> 00:53:50,080
Speaker 1: So if I'm just going and look, I haven't gone

1222
00:53:50,080 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 1: through training camp yet, Like I I do like a

1223
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:55,040
Speaker 1: very good job of making sure my models are all blind.

1224
00:53:55,080 --> 00:53:58,080
Speaker 1: So after week three everything goes in again. I rename

1225
00:53:58,160 --> 00:54:01,399
Speaker 1: them something my gut right now says that the most

1226
00:54:01,440 --> 00:54:03,360
Speaker 1: popular pick that other people are going to pick it

1227
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:06,200
Speaker 1: is probably to be cheap. Eagles would be my guest

1228
00:54:06,280 --> 00:54:09,879
Speaker 1: for Gut and for me, like if if I'm telling

1229
00:54:09,920 --> 00:54:12,719
Speaker 1: you who I think, I think we probably see And

1230
00:54:12,760 --> 00:54:14,400
Speaker 1: I hate to say this because it's super boring, but

1231
00:54:14,480 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 1: I think we might do Patriots Saints or Patriots Bears.

1232
00:54:18,320 --> 00:54:18,879
Speaker 1: One of the two.

1233
00:54:19,640 --> 00:54:24,239
Speaker 3: Sean who is your twenty nineteen Super Bowl matchup? And

1234
00:54:24,719 --> 00:54:25,279
Speaker 3: who yet win?

1235
00:54:26,080 --> 00:54:28,560
Speaker 2: So I have the Colts over the Saints. Going to

1236
00:54:28,560 --> 00:54:31,920
Speaker 2: a little smart contrarian here. They're not my two highly

1237
00:54:31,920 --> 00:54:34,440
Speaker 2: strated teams, but I just love to see the Colts

1238
00:54:34,480 --> 00:54:37,239
Speaker 2: for Saints. I think both teams are pretty complete. I

1239
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:40,600
Speaker 2: already have Saints eleven to one ticket to win it,

1240
00:54:40,880 --> 00:54:44,759
Speaker 2: so I'm anticipating, you know, Colts, and on some miraculous

1241
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 2: play in the Saints, destiny is vanished once again. So

1242
00:54:48,640 --> 00:54:51,960
Speaker 2: I have Colts over Saints as my super Bowl pick.

1243
00:54:52,560 --> 00:54:55,120
Speaker 3: You know, they're very well coached. I think the defense

1244
00:54:55,160 --> 00:54:57,880
Speaker 3: got better a lot quicker than everyone expected. But Andrew

1245
00:54:57,920 --> 00:55:00,920
Speaker 3: wuck was you know in those situations that can regress.

1246
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:05,160
Speaker 3: He he was amazing third down, red zone and if

1247
00:55:05,160 --> 00:55:07,560
Speaker 3: he's not there and they need a good luck. It's

1248
00:55:07,560 --> 00:55:10,759
Speaker 3: going to be difficult to rely on Jacobe Brissett. My

1249
00:55:10,880 --> 00:55:14,680
Speaker 3: Super Bowl pick Kansas City Chiefs over the Philadelphia Eagles.

1250
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:16,399
Speaker 1: So I'm that's what I think, That's what I think

1251
00:55:16,400 --> 00:55:17,160
Speaker 1: most people will pay.

1252
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:19,480
Speaker 3: I mean, I think I think the Eagle schedule, I

1253
00:55:19,520 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 3: think that's what. You know, getting to play those four

1254
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:25,000
Speaker 3: games against the Giants and uh in Washington Redskins, I

1255
00:55:25,040 --> 00:55:27,000
Speaker 3: think helps a lot in terms of secure and of buying.

1256
00:55:27,040 --> 00:55:29,000
Speaker 3: This is a team that the bottom line is we've

1257
00:55:29,040 --> 00:55:30,919
Speaker 3: seen them win even when we've counted them out before.

1258
00:55:30,960 --> 00:55:34,520
Speaker 3: I mean, you know, who knows what what could happen

1259
00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:37,000
Speaker 3: if Carson Wentz goes down, Maybe they make a move

1260
00:55:37,040 --> 00:55:40,560
Speaker 3: for somebody. I don't know, but I think Doug Peterson

1261
00:55:40,560 --> 00:55:43,160
Speaker 3: in in that coaching staff does an amazing job. And

1262
00:55:43,280 --> 00:55:45,960
Speaker 3: the Chiefs. I'm just I'm just not betting against Patrick Mahomes.

1263
00:55:46,840 --> 00:55:50,200
Speaker 3: You know, if anything I'll take, I'll bet against uh

1264
00:55:50,480 --> 00:55:54,480
Speaker 3: in aging Tom Brady hoping it'll finally be the year.

1265
00:55:54,760 --> 00:55:59,520
Speaker 3: Cynthia Man, this was a great conversation. I really thank

1266
00:55:59,560 --> 00:56:04,759
Speaker 3: you again. Yeah, tell all the listeners out there where

1267
00:56:04,800 --> 00:56:06,120
Speaker 3: they can find you and what you're up to.

1268
00:56:06,640 --> 00:56:10,720
Speaker 1: So they can find me Twitter, see Freeland's Instagram Cynthia Freeland,

1269
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:14,040
Speaker 1: and NFL Networks stuff like, we got some new stuff

1270
00:56:14,040 --> 00:56:16,160
Speaker 1: coming out, but for sure we have Game Day Morning

1271
00:56:16,160 --> 00:56:19,000
Speaker 1: and Fantasy Live next season. And then right now we're

1272
00:56:19,000 --> 00:56:20,560
Speaker 1: in training camp, so you can find me kind of,

1273
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:23,560
Speaker 1: you know, here in Detroit for a couple more days,

1274
00:56:24,320 --> 00:56:27,719
Speaker 1: but then I'll be back to California. And actually i

1275
00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:29,560
Speaker 1: haven't said it yet, but well I'm actually going to

1276
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:31,960
Speaker 1: be bringing some analytics to the sideline in the pre season.

1277
00:56:32,480 --> 00:56:35,080
Speaker 1: So I'm maybe doing four games for that, some Subjets

1278
00:56:35,120 --> 00:56:38,480
Speaker 1: games and some Ravens games, and I'm very excited to

1279
00:56:38,560 --> 00:56:40,799
Speaker 1: be able to do that. So we're adding we're just

1280
00:56:40,840 --> 00:56:44,040
Speaker 1: adding some storytelling using numbers on the sidelines. We're real

1281
00:56:44,040 --> 00:56:44,759
Speaker 1: psyched about that.

1282
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:47,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, that is definitely something to look forward to. Again,

1283
00:56:48,000 --> 00:56:51,560
Speaker 3: this is a must follow people. See Freeland on Twitter,

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00:56:52,120 --> 00:56:55,319
Speaker 3: NFL Network, Game Day Morning, Fantasy Live, Sean Corner. You

1285
00:56:55,320 --> 00:56:58,759
Speaker 3: can find him at the Underscore Odds Maker. His positional

1286
00:56:59,160 --> 00:57:02,560
Speaker 3: Tears article are out right now on actionnetwork dot com,

1287
00:57:02,600 --> 00:57:04,960
Speaker 3: so be sure to check that out. Also be sure

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00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:08,160
Speaker 3: to check out our cheat sheet builder as well as

1289
00:57:08,200 --> 00:57:13,080
Speaker 3: all of our coverage on win totals, futures, everything else

1290
00:57:13,560 --> 00:57:16,320
Speaker 3: you can possibly think to bet on for this.

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Speaker 1: By the way, my favorite thing about the Action Network

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00:57:18,720 --> 00:57:20,520
Speaker 1: app is, Sorry I have to say this, I think

1293
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:24,960
Speaker 1: that in the tracker like while you're watching is rad. Yes,

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00:57:25,040 --> 00:57:26,960
Speaker 1: it kind of gives me a little anxiety, but it's

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00:57:27,120 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 1: it's awesome, like it gives me that good anxiety.

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Speaker 3: You know. Thank you for that. You just pumped the

1297
00:57:33,040 --> 00:57:34,880
Speaker 3: Action Network app and told people how great it was

1298
00:57:35,040 --> 00:57:36,600
Speaker 3: and I didn't even have to do it. So you

1299
00:57:36,720 --> 00:57:39,400
Speaker 3: heard the woman. Go download the Action Network app. It

1300
00:57:39,520 --> 00:57:43,160
Speaker 3: is really amazing. And stay tuned because later in this

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00:57:43,200 --> 00:57:47,120
Speaker 3: week we're gonna have another Action Network NFL podcast. But

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00:57:47,360 --> 00:57:51,240
Speaker 3: until next time for Cynthia Friedman corner, I'm Chris Raymond

1303
00:57:51,320 --> 00:57:58,640
Speaker 3: taking all right,