1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: Welcome to Zero. I am Akshadrati. This week hurricanes and 2 00:00:04,519 --> 00:00:21,520 Speaker 1: Wall Street. Hurricane Milton has caused widespread devastation across Florida, 3 00:00:22,040 --> 00:00:26,040 Speaker 1: and that's just weeks after Hurricane Helene. This is an 4 00:00:26,040 --> 00:00:31,080 Speaker 1: example of compound climate events, one disaster hitting soon after another, 5 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,280 Speaker 1: something that we've discussed on the podcast before. If you 6 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:36,760 Speaker 1: miss that episode, we've linked it in the show notes. 7 00:00:37,640 --> 00:00:40,559 Speaker 1: Today we want to talk about what Wall Street is 8 00:00:40,600 --> 00:00:45,440 Speaker 1: doing in the middle of these natural disasters, hurricanes in particular. 9 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:49,639 Speaker 1: There's a whole market of special financial instruments that can 10 00:00:49,680 --> 00:00:55,080 Speaker 1: help people who've lost their homes rebuild or make investors rich. 11 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: It all depends on the details. My colleague in London 12 00:00:59,720 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: got the has been reporting on this area. It includes 13 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,880 Speaker 1: the kinds of insurance you're familiar with, and the growing 14 00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 1: market for things like catastrophe bonds. And this is a 15 00:01:11,200 --> 00:01:15,160 Speaker 1: global story because Wall Street is selling these not just 16 00:01:15,360 --> 00:01:19,320 Speaker 1: to rich countries, but also climate vulnerable nations that are 17 00:01:19,400 --> 00:01:34,440 Speaker 1: desperate for any kind of help they can get. So 18 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 1: this is the first time we've tackled insurance on Zero. 19 00:01:37,680 --> 00:01:41,520 Speaker 1: And before we get into the bigger discussion, let's just 20 00:01:41,560 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: go over the basics. What is the easiest way to 21 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:49,000 Speaker 1: understand the financial instrument that is insurance. 22 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:51,520 Speaker 2: So there are risks in the world, whether it's a 23 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 2: natural catastrophe or a car accident. An insurance company essentially 24 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,800 Speaker 2: wants to spread this risk across a whole lot of people, 25 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:02,559 Speaker 2: So everybody pays a premium, and the insurance company's betting 26 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:05,320 Speaker 2: that only a few people actually get in an accident 27 00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:08,760 Speaker 2: or have their house roof blown off, so they would 28 00:02:08,919 --> 00:02:12,480 Speaker 2: pay those claims. But ultimately the total amount they pay 29 00:02:12,480 --> 00:02:14,480 Speaker 2: out and claims will be less than the amount they 30 00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:17,280 Speaker 2: can collect from the premiums, so they will stand to 31 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:18,440 Speaker 2: make a profit at the end of it. 32 00:02:18,680 --> 00:02:21,440 Speaker 1: Right, So if I had car insurance, and I don't 33 00:02:21,480 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 1: because I don't own a car, But if I had 34 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:25,720 Speaker 1: car insurance, and say the probability of me getting into 35 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:29,440 Speaker 1: an accident is one in twenty years, that means roughly 36 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:32,680 Speaker 1: my premium would be one twentieth of the damage my 37 00:02:32,919 --> 00:02:35,919 Speaker 1: accident may cause. And so I'm paying that over twenty years, 38 00:02:35,919 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: and at some point I get into an accident, and 39 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:41,640 Speaker 1: then fortunately I'm not paying that huge amount because I've 40 00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 1: been paying the small amount all through my time, and 41 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:49,840 Speaker 1: I am saved from that risk great, lovely to have insurance. 42 00:02:49,840 --> 00:02:53,600 Speaker 1: It sort of makes the world work better. But now, 43 00:02:53,800 --> 00:02:57,720 Speaker 1: what if suddenly we realize that there's a software glitch 44 00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:02,160 Speaker 1: that car makers have introduced, all kinds of cars are crashing, 45 00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:06,520 Speaker 1: and insurance companies aren't ready to make such large payouts. 46 00:03:07,280 --> 00:03:09,360 Speaker 2: Well, it means that the insurance company is on the 47 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:12,760 Speaker 2: hook for a lot of money, much more than it anticipated, 48 00:03:13,360 --> 00:03:15,880 Speaker 2: and so they have different ways of dealing with this. 49 00:03:16,560 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 2: They buy insurance from other companies which are known as reinsurers, 50 00:03:20,919 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 2: and so that allows them to spread the risk of 51 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,240 Speaker 2: this kind of calamity you're describing, which is sort of 52 00:03:26,240 --> 00:03:29,680 Speaker 2: a black sworn event which they weren't expecting, pass on 53 00:03:29,760 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 2: that risk off their balance sheets to some extent onto 54 00:03:32,960 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 2: other people willing to take on that risk. 55 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:39,360 Speaker 1: And can the reinsurance be wrong and do they have 56 00:03:39,560 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: somebody to protect them? 57 00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 2: Absolutely, all players in the insurance market are extremely risk averse, 58 00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 2: even though risk is what they deal in. So even 59 00:03:48,640 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 2: reinsurers buy their own insurance, they buy it from companies 60 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:56,800 Speaker 2: called retrocession, the retrocession industry, and that's how they pass 61 00:03:56,880 --> 00:03:58,160 Speaker 2: on some of their risk. 62 00:03:58,040 --> 00:04:01,680 Speaker 1: To other parties. Does this onion have it more or 63 00:04:01,760 --> 00:04:05,760 Speaker 1: less stops there. Okay, so insurers have insurers have insurers, 64 00:04:05,800 --> 00:04:08,400 Speaker 1: and that's about it. But all this year you've been 65 00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:12,000 Speaker 1: reporting on an instrument called a catastrophe bond, which is 66 00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:15,360 Speaker 1: a type of insurance instrument. And I've read those stories 67 00:04:15,400 --> 00:04:18,560 Speaker 1: with great interest because on the one hand, they could 68 00:04:18,600 --> 00:04:21,760 Speaker 1: really help people deal with climate catastrophes that we are 69 00:04:21,800 --> 00:04:26,200 Speaker 1: freezing increasingly. But on the other hand, you've been showing 70 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 1: how hedge funds are actually making a ton of money 71 00:04:28,839 --> 00:04:32,080 Speaker 1: from this instrument. Now we are watching the fallout from 72 00:04:32,200 --> 00:04:35,120 Speaker 1: Hurricane Milton, and it looks like catastrophe bonds could be 73 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:38,640 Speaker 1: playing a role in how Tampa and Saint Petersburg and 74 00:04:38,680 --> 00:04:42,800 Speaker 1: those areas recover from this disaster. So let's start there. 75 00:04:43,160 --> 00:04:46,000 Speaker 1: What is a catastrophe bond and why is it different 76 00:04:46,040 --> 00:04:48,920 Speaker 1: from the types of insurance instruments that we've been talking about. 77 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 2: So regular insurance and the example of your car is 78 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 2: something that the risk is usually taken on by the insurer, right, 79 00:04:57,240 --> 00:04:59,680 Speaker 2: this goes on the balance sheet, and if you make 80 00:04:59,680 --> 00:05:02,240 Speaker 2: a cli, the money comes out of their balance sheet 81 00:05:02,240 --> 00:05:05,640 Speaker 2: to pay you. Well, there are events in the world 82 00:05:05,680 --> 00:05:10,680 Speaker 2: that are extremely large, very hard to predict, rare and 83 00:05:11,160 --> 00:05:15,800 Speaker 2: really black sworn events like a massive catastrophe that insurance 84 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 2: companies don't want on their balance sheets. It'll wreck their finances. 85 00:05:20,640 --> 00:05:22,320 Speaker 2: So what they want to do is they want to 86 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 2: pass that on to some other group of people who'd 87 00:05:25,800 --> 00:05:27,919 Speaker 2: be willing to take on the risk, and that group 88 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:31,120 Speaker 2: is Wall Street. There are investors there who are much 89 00:05:31,200 --> 00:05:34,200 Speaker 2: more happy to take on risk as long as they 90 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,760 Speaker 2: get a good return. A cat bond is the instrument 91 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:41,800 Speaker 2: that allows insurance companies and sometimes governments to pass on 92 00:05:41,839 --> 00:05:45,520 Speaker 2: the risk of these very rare black sworn events to 93 00:05:45,800 --> 00:05:47,560 Speaker 2: Wall Street, to the capital markets. 94 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: And this is a more recent development in the insurance 95 00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: industry than insurance as a whole. 96 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:54,479 Speaker 3: Right. 97 00:05:55,040 --> 00:05:58,320 Speaker 2: It is it think goes back to the early nineties, 98 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:01,200 Speaker 2: and I think it was Hurricane Andrew that really sparked 99 00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,600 Speaker 2: an interest in this, where there were predictions by the 100 00:06:04,680 --> 00:06:07,919 Speaker 2: insurance companies that even if large hurricane, very large hurricane 101 00:06:07,960 --> 00:06:11,440 Speaker 2: would to hit the US, it wouldn't cripple them. In fact, 102 00:06:11,640 --> 00:06:15,120 Speaker 2: Hurricane Andrew did. The losses are much greater, and suddenly 103 00:06:15,240 --> 00:06:18,000 Speaker 2: these insurers realized they had to find a way to 104 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 2: pass on the risk of these catastrophic events to some 105 00:06:21,440 --> 00:06:24,240 Speaker 2: other party. And it ended up being Wall Street through 106 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:25,240 Speaker 2: cat bonds. 107 00:06:25,520 --> 00:06:29,440 Speaker 1: And Hurricane Andrew hit Florida, and Florida of course even 108 00:06:29,480 --> 00:06:33,440 Speaker 1: today sort of dealing with the impacts of that insurance payout, 109 00:06:33,440 --> 00:06:38,440 Speaker 1: because getting insurance in Florida is getting harder and harder. 110 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: And now cat bonds themselves cover all kinds of events, right, 111 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: it's not just natural disasters, it's not just climate link disasters. 112 00:06:47,440 --> 00:06:49,360 Speaker 1: What other types of events does it cover? 113 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:53,480 Speaker 2: Well, earthquakes, for one, that's one of the main large, 114 00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 2: unpredictable events that cat bonds are used for. But there 115 00:06:56,800 --> 00:07:00,000 Speaker 2: are also catbonds that cover what are known as secondary perils, 116 00:07:00,000 --> 00:07:05,279 Speaker 2: things like floods and wildfires and storm surges. So you 117 00:07:05,360 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 2: do have capponds that cover these kinds of events, but 118 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:13,280 Speaker 2: the market is increasingly shifting to these more rare, one 119 00:07:13,320 --> 00:07:17,440 Speaker 2: off Hurricane Katrina like events which caused a great deal 120 00:07:17,480 --> 00:07:20,080 Speaker 2: of damage but only occur occasionally. 121 00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:23,520 Speaker 1: While you use this term secondary peril, it feels a 122 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: little wrong to say a flood is a secondary event, 123 00:07:27,160 --> 00:07:30,080 Speaker 1: whereas what is the primary event? And why that distinction? 124 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:34,880 Speaker 2: Yeah, so originally hurricanes and earthquakes were called primary events 125 00:07:34,920 --> 00:07:38,600 Speaker 2: and all these other events were called secondary. Well, that 126 00:07:38,920 --> 00:07:42,200 Speaker 2: distinction has changed. I think even insurance companies no longer 127 00:07:42,320 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 2: refer to them as secondary perils because climate change is 128 00:07:45,400 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: engendered more flood events, wildfires, storm surges, and the industry 129 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:54,080 Speaker 2: losses and the insurance for insurance companies has gone up 130 00:07:54,120 --> 00:07:56,880 Speaker 2: so much that they no longer consder them secondary. 131 00:07:57,520 --> 00:08:01,280 Speaker 1: So is the catbond just like normally insurance, say a 132 00:08:01,320 --> 00:08:04,800 Speaker 1: car insurance, where if I get a scratch or a crash, 133 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: I'll get the pay for whatever accident I get into. 134 00:08:07,600 --> 00:08:11,560 Speaker 2: Actually, cat ponds are highly specialized instruments, so some governments 135 00:08:11,600 --> 00:08:15,640 Speaker 2: issue them to protect themselves against very large natural disasters. 136 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:19,840 Speaker 2: The way these work are through a particular parameter. So 137 00:08:20,040 --> 00:08:22,920 Speaker 2: if a country light jamaker is going to be hit 138 00:08:22,920 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 2: by a hurricane, the cat pond will have in the 139 00:08:25,720 --> 00:08:29,440 Speaker 2: documentation a particular parameter, in this case a pressure reading. 140 00:08:29,880 --> 00:08:32,600 Speaker 2: If that pressure reading is hit by a particular storm, 141 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:36,600 Speaker 2: then the cat pond pays out. If it isn't, then 142 00:08:37,000 --> 00:08:40,520 Speaker 2: the government gets absolutely nothing. But the vast majority of 143 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,599 Speaker 2: cat ponds in the market are dominated by US storms, 144 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:49,199 Speaker 2: and these are structured somewhat differently. They have different thresholds, 145 00:08:49,240 --> 00:08:51,480 Speaker 2: but if there is a certain amount of damage then 146 00:08:51,520 --> 00:08:53,960 Speaker 2: the cat pond pays out a certain amount, and if 147 00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:55,760 Speaker 2: there's a higher level of damage, it pays out a 148 00:08:55,800 --> 00:08:59,680 Speaker 2: bit more. But there's no parameter involved. There's actual real 149 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:03,560 Speaker 2: world damage has to be assessed for the issuer to 150 00:09:03,559 --> 00:09:04,440 Speaker 2: get some money. 151 00:09:05,120 --> 00:09:07,679 Speaker 1: So in the case of a parametric cat pond, it 152 00:09:07,720 --> 00:09:09,960 Speaker 1: will be paid out as soon as this particular parameter 153 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:12,959 Speaker 1: is hit, whereas in the case of a threshold cat pond, 154 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:15,640 Speaker 1: you actually have to wait for the damaged calculations to 155 00:09:15,679 --> 00:09:17,359 Speaker 1: come in and then make the payouts. 156 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:21,640 Speaker 2: Yes, and that's exactly why developing countries really like parametric 157 00:09:21,720 --> 00:09:24,560 Speaker 2: based cat ponds. They don't have too much money in 158 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:27,199 Speaker 2: their treasury, so when disaster hits they need to rebuild 159 00:09:27,240 --> 00:09:30,000 Speaker 2: quickly and they can get the money very quickly through 160 00:09:30,040 --> 00:09:34,120 Speaker 2: a parametric trigger because it's pretty easy to determine whether 161 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:35,840 Speaker 2: the cat pond is going to pay out or not. 162 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:39,839 Speaker 2: By comparison, the cat pond that say, would pay out 163 00:09:39,880 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 2: in the case of a big earthquake in California or 164 00:09:42,640 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 2: a hurricane in Florida is determined by claims of justice 165 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,360 Speaker 2: actually going out in the field and calculating what the 166 00:09:50,400 --> 00:09:53,360 Speaker 2: real insured losses were. And it's on that basis that 167 00:09:53,400 --> 00:09:55,680 Speaker 2: will pay out. That process can take, if not weeks 168 00:09:55,760 --> 00:09:57,120 Speaker 2: or months, sometimes even years. 169 00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,720 Speaker 1: In general, the cat pond and is a higher risk, 170 00:10:01,960 --> 00:10:05,040 Speaker 1: higher reward strategy, and that's why Wall Street has been 171 00:10:05,240 --> 00:10:09,439 Speaker 1: interested in these instruments. In your reporting, you found that 172 00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:13,080 Speaker 1: in twenty twenty three, cat bonds proved to be the 173 00:10:13,120 --> 00:10:16,800 Speaker 1: most profitable strategy for hedge funds. Why was that so? 174 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,040 Speaker 2: The cat bond is made up of two components. One is, 175 00:10:21,200 --> 00:10:24,000 Speaker 2: the investor gets a risk premium for taking on the 176 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:28,240 Speaker 2: risk of these cataclysmic events, and they demand pretty high 177 00:10:28,360 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 2: rates of return and they're getting them. But on top 178 00:10:31,360 --> 00:10:35,960 Speaker 2: of that, they also get the current treasury rate, and 179 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 2: we know that interest rates have been high for a 180 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 2: long time, So when you put the two together, they've 181 00:10:40,280 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 2: been getting rates of up to twenty percent on their investments, 182 00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:47,200 Speaker 2: and as long as a catastrophe doesn't occur, they keep 183 00:10:47,280 --> 00:10:49,359 Speaker 2: getting this money in for three years. 184 00:10:50,200 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: So last year, the places that had cat bonds did 185 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,240 Speaker 1: not suffer from as many climate catastrophes, and thus the 186 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,640 Speaker 1: catboard investors made a ton of money this year with 187 00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: Her Helene and Hurricane Milton. Should Wall Street be preparing 188 00:11:04,520 --> 00:11:07,480 Speaker 1: for major losses on their cat bonds instead. 189 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:10,840 Speaker 2: So there's a significant amount of luck involved in cat 190 00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:13,320 Speaker 2: bond investments, and that's why they're a very niche market 191 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:17,160 Speaker 2: and not for just about your ordinary investor. Now the 192 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:20,160 Speaker 2: weight working out with Milton so far, it looks like 193 00:11:20,280 --> 00:11:23,920 Speaker 2: the estimated insured losses are anywhere from twenty billion to 194 00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,559 Speaker 2: sixty billion, which is much less than the one hundred 195 00:11:26,600 --> 00:11:29,840 Speaker 2: billion one hundred and seventy five billion that was forecast 196 00:11:29,840 --> 00:11:32,640 Speaker 2: for the top end. And this translates to a loss 197 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:35,600 Speaker 2: of anyway from zero percent to four percent for cat 198 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 2: bond portfolio, which is not very much given that this 199 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 2: year catbond investors are bringing in about twelve and a 200 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:46,000 Speaker 2: half thirteen percent. So if there are no further big 201 00:11:46,080 --> 00:11:49,640 Speaker 2: hurricanes and losses and they continue to get this rate 202 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 2: of return, they will end the year at roughly nine 203 00:11:52,960 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 2: percent up. 204 00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:57,800 Speaker 1: That feels kind of unfair. You have people suffering and 205 00:11:58,120 --> 00:12:01,920 Speaker 1: yet Wall Street is making money. I don't think it's 206 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:06,120 Speaker 1: unfair because cat bonds are a specific instrument for very 207 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:11,960 Speaker 1: rare black sworn events, and when they do occur, then 208 00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:17,000 Speaker 1: the investors will suffer tremendously. They could lose their entire capital. 209 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:19,440 Speaker 1: You never have that to any other kind of fixed 210 00:12:19,440 --> 00:12:23,079 Speaker 1: income or bond investment. But here you have a very 211 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:27,240 Speaker 1: high risk, high reward scenario. So for taking on this 212 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:31,400 Speaker 1: crazy amount of risk, they demand high amounts of returns. 213 00:12:37,400 --> 00:12:39,439 Speaker 1: After the break, we talk about the use of CAT 214 00:12:39,520 --> 00:12:42,520 Speaker 1: bonds for poor countries and whether they can serve as 215 00:12:42,520 --> 00:12:53,760 Speaker 1: a solution to deal with climate link damages got them. 216 00:12:53,920 --> 00:12:56,680 Speaker 1: A separate story that you've been reporting on is Hurricane 217 00:12:56,720 --> 00:13:01,679 Speaker 1: Beryl's impact on Jamaica. It did not hit Jamaica directly, 218 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:05,680 Speaker 1: It kind of risked passed, but it still caused the 219 00:13:05,720 --> 00:13:09,520 Speaker 1: worst damage that Jamaica has suffered from a hurricane, and 220 00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:12,880 Speaker 1: Jamaica has a CAT bond, but it did not trigger 221 00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:17,320 Speaker 1: the catbond, so the people lost and the investors won. Again, 222 00:13:17,920 --> 00:13:18,959 Speaker 1: what exactly. 223 00:13:18,559 --> 00:13:21,920 Speaker 2: Happened, Yeah, it's really important actually to point out that 224 00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:25,080 Speaker 2: most CAT bonds are issued in the developed world for 225 00:13:25,240 --> 00:13:31,120 Speaker 2: earthquakes and hurricanes and windstorms, but poorer countries are starting 226 00:13:31,160 --> 00:13:35,839 Speaker 2: to feel increased losses from climate related events, and some 227 00:13:35,960 --> 00:13:38,960 Speaker 2: are turning to CAT bonds as a possible solution. And 228 00:13:39,040 --> 00:13:41,480 Speaker 2: the World Bank has been promoting this as an instrument 229 00:13:41,520 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 2: for various countries. 230 00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:45,720 Speaker 1: And developing countries haven't turned to insurance yet because they 231 00:13:45,760 --> 00:13:48,880 Speaker 1: just can't afford the premiums. Right, It's sort of like 232 00:13:49,320 --> 00:13:53,199 Speaker 1: developing countries are uninsured whereas developed countries are insured. 233 00:13:53,760 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 2: That's right. I mean, big insurers barely have operations in 234 00:13:57,160 --> 00:13:59,320 Speaker 2: most of the poorer countries of the world, and when 235 00:13:59,360 --> 00:14:01,840 Speaker 2: it comes to climate risk, which is very uncertain, they're 236 00:14:01,840 --> 00:14:05,040 Speaker 2: even less inclined to provide insurance. And as you point out, 237 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,520 Speaker 2: the insurance premiums are so high that a lot of 238 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:09,440 Speaker 2: the governments there can't really afford them. 239 00:14:09,679 --> 00:14:13,320 Speaker 1: So how come Jamaica had a cat bond. Well, Jamaica 240 00:14:13,440 --> 00:14:15,880 Speaker 1: had a cat bond in twenty twenty one that was 241 00:14:15,920 --> 00:14:18,520 Speaker 1: issued by the World Bank, and it is when the 242 00:14:18,520 --> 00:14:20,320 Speaker 1: World Bank paid the premium that's why. 243 00:14:20,520 --> 00:14:23,800 Speaker 2: No, in this case, it was rich countries, including the US, 244 00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:29,640 Speaker 2: UK and Germany that helped to pay Jamaica's cat bond premium. 245 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:33,320 Speaker 2: Jamaica renewed the cat bond earlier this year, but this 246 00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:37,200 Speaker 2: time they didn't get any help on the premium. 247 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:42,520 Speaker 1: And Jamaica thought it was still worth paying the premium. 248 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, they did, because you know, if Jamaica got hit 249 00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:48,360 Speaker 2: by a really big hurricane, the cat bond would pay 250 00:14:48,400 --> 00:14:52,360 Speaker 2: out in their view, because it would potentially hit the threshold. 251 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:55,840 Speaker 1: And then it did not and they didn't get to payout. 252 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 2: Now, as I said, a cat bond is almost an 253 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,800 Speaker 2: all or nothing type of propersey. I mean, you can 254 00:15:00,840 --> 00:15:03,200 Speaker 2: get partial payouts, and in the case of the Jamaica 255 00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:06,920 Speaker 2: cat pond, if it had hit a certain lower threshold, 256 00:15:06,920 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 2: it would have gotten a thirty million or a fifty 257 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:11,360 Speaker 2: million dollar payout instead of the total one hundred and 258 00:15:11,400 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 2: fifty million that the cat pond was issued for. But 259 00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:18,080 Speaker 2: in this case, the pressure reading that was taken from 260 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:21,800 Speaker 2: the storm just missed what the threshold was, and so 261 00:15:21,920 --> 00:15:23,280 Speaker 2: there was no payout. 262 00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:27,160 Speaker 1: Did Jamaica get anything in insurance from a Hurricane Beryl, 263 00:15:27,200 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: given it was the worst that they have suffered. 264 00:15:30,480 --> 00:15:33,880 Speaker 2: Jamaica actually is a pretty pioneering country when it comes 265 00:15:33,920 --> 00:15:37,720 Speaker 2: to protecting itself from these kind of events. So they 266 00:15:37,720 --> 00:15:42,120 Speaker 2: built up a one point six billion dollar disaster financing 267 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 2: mechanism across cat bonds, parametric insurance, and various other types 268 00:15:47,800 --> 00:15:50,920 Speaker 2: of lifelines that they've procured. So overall, I think they 269 00:15:50,920 --> 00:15:53,600 Speaker 2: were actually quite well protected. But the cat bond was 270 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:57,080 Speaker 2: very important part of it. One hundred and fifty million 271 00:15:57,120 --> 00:16:00,680 Speaker 2: dollars potential payout which they didn't get any from. 272 00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:03,800 Speaker 1: And so we've been talking about these many layers that 273 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:06,000 Speaker 1: you can build to try and protect yourself from risk. 274 00:16:06,640 --> 00:16:09,080 Speaker 1: But at the end of the day, from the perspective 275 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 1: of Jamaica, it is really about protecting people. Do people 276 00:16:13,080 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 1: know what catbonds are and the fact that they didn't 277 00:16:15,600 --> 00:16:17,520 Speaker 1: trigger and they didn't get a payout, and what did 278 00:16:17,520 --> 00:16:18,280 Speaker 1: they feel about it? 279 00:16:18,520 --> 00:16:20,120 Speaker 2: Oh, we spoke to quite a few people on the 280 00:16:20,120 --> 00:16:23,920 Speaker 2: ground in Jamaica and nobody had any idea what a 281 00:16:23,960 --> 00:16:26,400 Speaker 2: catbond was. They had no idea they actually had this 282 00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 2: potential protection that the government had bought for them with 283 00:16:29,400 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 2: taxpayer money. So when it was explained to them how 284 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:35,040 Speaker 2: to work, they were sort of horrified that their homes 285 00:16:35,080 --> 00:16:37,920 Speaker 2: had been destroyed and their livelihoods had been hit, and 286 00:16:38,040 --> 00:16:41,240 Speaker 2: yet they had received no insurance payment even though there 287 00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:44,360 Speaker 2: was this instrument out there is supposed to protect them. 288 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:48,160 Speaker 1: And our colleague Jim Wiz also spoke to Jamaica's leader 289 00:16:48,160 --> 00:16:50,320 Speaker 1: of opposition, Mark Golding about this. 290 00:16:56,440 --> 00:16:59,119 Speaker 3: Hello hello with mister Golden, Please. 291 00:17:01,680 --> 00:17:04,600 Speaker 1: Because after all, it is the leaders of the country 292 00:17:04,800 --> 00:17:06,080 Speaker 1: that are paying for this. 293 00:17:06,119 --> 00:17:09,760 Speaker 3: Cat pond and it sounded great and all that, you know, 294 00:17:09,840 --> 00:17:13,199 Speaker 3: providing the country with some coupler in the event of 295 00:17:13,200 --> 00:17:19,679 Speaker 3: a serious calamity. However, as we have discovered with Beryl, 296 00:17:20,480 --> 00:17:26,000 Speaker 3: you know, the country can be it's pretty hard by 297 00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:33,680 Speaker 3: a naturally that like hurricane and suffer extensive damage and 298 00:17:34,359 --> 00:17:40,920 Speaker 3: the relevant trigger of payment is not meant well. 299 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:44,879 Speaker 1: Clearly the leaders are frustrated because they paid for something 300 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:49,080 Speaker 1: and they didn't really benefit from it. Is Jamaica an 301 00:17:49,119 --> 00:17:51,280 Speaker 1: hurricane Berrow a singular example. 302 00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:56,160 Speaker 2: There have been other severe weather events where catbonds haven't 303 00:17:56,160 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 2: paid out. So for example, the Philippines, which relies what 304 00:17:59,760 --> 00:18:02,080 Speaker 2: have on these instruments to cut a cat bond and 305 00:18:02,160 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 2: it was hit by two or three typhoons recently and 306 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,320 Speaker 2: it only got a partial payout and it decided not 307 00:18:07,400 --> 00:18:10,200 Speaker 2: to renew its World Bank cat bond. A more interesting 308 00:18:10,240 --> 00:18:15,360 Speaker 2: example occurred in twenty fourteen when Hurricane Ordeals smashed into Mexico. 309 00:18:15,560 --> 00:18:19,280 Speaker 2: Mexico had a cat pond. Now, the decision whether the 310 00:18:19,320 --> 00:18:22,320 Speaker 2: catbond would pay out is based on what the National 311 00:18:22,400 --> 00:18:26,120 Speaker 2: Hurricane Center measures, but in this case they didn't have 312 00:18:26,440 --> 00:18:29,880 Speaker 2: the best assessment of the pressure of Hurricane Ordeal. 313 00:18:30,040 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 1: And that's not surprising, like developing countries typically have far 314 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:37,040 Speaker 1: fewer weather stations than developed countries do. There's a map 315 00:18:37,080 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: you can look at and it's sort of like fully 316 00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:42,639 Speaker 1: covered in rich countries and then very sparsely covered in 317 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:43,479 Speaker 1: developing countries. 318 00:18:43,560 --> 00:18:43,720 Speaker 3: Right. 319 00:18:44,119 --> 00:18:47,359 Speaker 2: Not only that I heard that in this case, because 320 00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,560 Speaker 2: they wanted to protect the weather stations on the ground, 321 00:18:50,800 --> 00:18:53,720 Speaker 2: some of the weather stations had been boarded up in 322 00:18:53,760 --> 00:18:56,960 Speaker 2: power it had protected from the oncoming hurricane, so there 323 00:18:57,040 --> 00:19:00,159 Speaker 2: was no pressure reading on the ground stations in certain cases. 324 00:19:00,560 --> 00:19:05,280 Speaker 2: So the National Hurricane Center then relied on a reading 325 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:09,240 Speaker 2: taken by an amateur storm chaser called Josh Morgaman from 326 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:12,000 Speaker 2: the US who happened to be in this part of 327 00:19:12,080 --> 00:19:18,840 Speaker 2: mexico chasing ordeal, and his contribution of the pressure reading 328 00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 2: helped to determine that the threshold for the cat pond 329 00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:29,359 Speaker 2: trigger was not reached, and so he was actually really 330 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,240 Speaker 2: livid about this later and wrote a letter to the 331 00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 2: Los Angeles Times describing how he had unwittingly been responsible 332 00:19:37,200 --> 00:19:40,120 Speaker 2: for not allowing Mexico to make a claim on its 333 00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,800 Speaker 2: cat bond and how a pressure reading should not be 334 00:19:43,920 --> 00:19:48,840 Speaker 2: the measure of a hurricane's destructive force if you take. 335 00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:53,080 Speaker 1: A big step back. We've been talking about risk and 336 00:19:53,160 --> 00:19:57,800 Speaker 1: trying to insure against risk. Now, the way most insurance 337 00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:03,200 Speaker 1: instruments work is by risk across time or across geography, 338 00:20:03,800 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: and that allows for both the insurance companies to be 339 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:12,280 Speaker 1: solvent and to make payments as they come through. Now, Avinsbrasod, 340 00:20:12,320 --> 00:20:16,520 Speaker 1: who is an economist from Barbados, told me that climate 341 00:20:16,600 --> 00:20:20,520 Speaker 1: change is an uninsurable risk because the main ways in 342 00:20:20,560 --> 00:20:23,960 Speaker 1: which you could pool this risk across time or geography 343 00:20:25,080 --> 00:20:27,919 Speaker 1: aren't working because across time we are heating the planet 344 00:20:27,920 --> 00:20:30,960 Speaker 1: and so the risks are going up, and across geographies, well, 345 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:34,160 Speaker 1: climate change is happening everywhere at the same time, and 346 00:20:34,240 --> 00:20:39,760 Speaker 1: so he just calls climate change an uninsurable risk. Is 347 00:20:39,800 --> 00:20:40,240 Speaker 1: that right? 348 00:20:41,400 --> 00:20:44,480 Speaker 2: I'd say for the most part that's correct, because traditional 349 00:20:44,520 --> 00:20:48,879 Speaker 2: insurance would require people in poor countries paying a pretty 350 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:52,120 Speaker 2: hefty premium to protect their homes and their livelihoods from 351 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:57,120 Speaker 2: weather related calamity, and that doesn't really look like it's 352 00:20:57,520 --> 00:21:02,680 Speaker 2: practical reasonable. In coming years, there is the possibility of 353 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:06,440 Speaker 2: parametric insurance, which also operates somewhat like a cat bond 354 00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:09,959 Speaker 2: in a more modest way, but even that only covers 355 00:21:09,960 --> 00:21:13,480 Speaker 2: a very small portion of potential losses. So in terms 356 00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:16,440 Speaker 2: of insurance, I think we're putting in a rock and 357 00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 2: a hard place. 358 00:21:17,160 --> 00:21:19,439 Speaker 1: And yet rich countries want to find a way to 359 00:21:19,520 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 1: stretch an insurance instrument into really trying to help developing countries, right. 360 00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:27,880 Speaker 2: That's right. Two years ago an instrument called the Loss 361 00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:31,639 Speaker 2: and Damage Fund was put forward. It's a pool of 362 00:21:31,680 --> 00:21:35,479 Speaker 2: money from wealthy nations that supposedly will go to poorer 363 00:21:35,520 --> 00:21:40,080 Speaker 2: countries to help to alleviate the climate losses. That fund 364 00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,159 Speaker 2: doesn't have much traction yet. 365 00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:44,959 Speaker 1: It's got about seven hundred million dollars. And you know, 366 00:21:45,040 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: by any count climate damages for developing countries aren't the 367 00:21:49,840 --> 00:21:52,000 Speaker 1: tens of billions of dollars annually. 368 00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:56,400 Speaker 2: That's right. So there's been talk, we understand of perhaps 369 00:21:56,520 --> 00:22:02,000 Speaker 2: using that seven hundred million dollars to part completely pay 370 00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:06,000 Speaker 2: for premiums for a large cat bond to protect poorer 371 00:22:06,040 --> 00:22:07,800 Speaker 2: countries against climate losses. 372 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:10,560 Speaker 1: In a way, it's something that has been tried in 373 00:22:10,600 --> 00:22:14,720 Speaker 1: the past before the Loss and Damage Instrument. Germany led 374 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,840 Speaker 1: the creation of this thing called the Global Shield, which 375 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,600 Speaker 1: set out that it's going to try and pay insurance 376 00:22:20,680 --> 00:22:24,800 Speaker 1: premiums for helping developing countries. The way rich countries are 377 00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: seeing it is they pay a small amount and then 378 00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:31,200 Speaker 1: the private industry provides the larger payout. But this can 379 00:22:31,240 --> 00:22:33,600 Speaker 1: only go on for so long, right because eventually that 380 00:22:33,640 --> 00:22:37,359 Speaker 1: payout has to be met with the premiums that add 381 00:22:37,440 --> 00:22:41,080 Speaker 1: up to the payout. So if climate change is unensurable, 382 00:22:41,440 --> 00:22:44,640 Speaker 1: what is the way in which developing countries can deal 383 00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: with climate damages? 384 00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:49,320 Speaker 2: Well, one of the most obvious ways is a loss 385 00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,359 Speaker 2: and damage fund, whereby you know, richer countries simply pull 386 00:22:52,480 --> 00:22:54,760 Speaker 2: money and put into this fund and it's paid out 387 00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,840 Speaker 2: whenever crises occur. In the less developed world, there are 388 00:22:58,880 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 2: also other supporting instruments that can be used. Cat bonds 389 00:23:01,760 --> 00:23:04,600 Speaker 2: is one of them. Parametric insurance in a modest ways 390 00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:08,840 Speaker 2: another one of them. There are also certain debt clauses 391 00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,040 Speaker 2: that were countries that have a very high level of 392 00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:16,240 Speaker 2: debt in use. So, for example, Grenada recently was able 393 00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:19,760 Speaker 2: to in the aftermath of Hurricane Beryl causing a lot 394 00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:23,679 Speaker 2: of damage, there was able to defer interest payments on 395 00:23:23,920 --> 00:23:27,080 Speaker 2: their debt for a couple of years and that gives 396 00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,359 Speaker 2: them some temporary relief to allow them to rebuild after 397 00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 2: the hurricane hit and continue their interest payments two years 398 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:35,760 Speaker 2: down the road. 399 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,639 Speaker 1: And these countries typically have quite a lot of debt, 400 00:23:38,800 --> 00:23:41,680 Speaker 1: and so they are paying a good chunk of money. 401 00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,600 Speaker 1: Sometimes it's ten percent twenty percent of their GDP that 402 00:23:44,720 --> 00:23:48,520 Speaker 1: is being paid in just interest payments for the debt 403 00:23:48,520 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 1: they've taken on. So getting a pause allows them to 404 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:55,639 Speaker 1: have sort of cash in hand immediately to help with recovery. 405 00:23:56,880 --> 00:23:59,800 Speaker 1: It does seem like finance can help deal with some 406 00:23:59,840 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 1: of the climate damages that are coming, and yet at 407 00:24:02,800 --> 00:24:06,840 Speaker 1: the same time, it's also showing that there are limits 408 00:24:07,280 --> 00:24:10,479 Speaker 1: to financial instruments for how far they can go to 409 00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:13,200 Speaker 1: deal with a worsening crisis. 410 00:24:15,080 --> 00:24:17,520 Speaker 2: Yeah, the issue here is that a lot of these 411 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,720 Speaker 2: insurance based products are sort of based in the Western 412 00:24:21,800 --> 00:24:26,320 Speaker 2: style of a market driven product, right, and climate risk 413 00:24:26,680 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 2: is not as amenable to being solved by some of 414 00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,960 Speaker 2: these instruments because it's a risk that's escalating. There's a 415 00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:37,800 Speaker 2: great deal of uncertainty. The insurance payments that poorer countries 416 00:24:37,840 --> 00:24:41,120 Speaker 2: need to make aren't always affordable by them. They're already indebted, 417 00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:44,960 Speaker 2: as you pointed out. So these market driven solutions that 418 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 2: the Western world has used for decades, very very well 419 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:55,600 Speaker 2: and has really been a very efficient tool. Doesn't quite 420 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:59,160 Speaker 2: cut it in the poorer parts of the world. 421 00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:03,200 Speaker 1: Thank you, Gotham, and I hope that people will read 422 00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,719 Speaker 1: the Uncovered series that you and colleagues across Bloombergreen have 423 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:11,240 Speaker 1: been reporting on both the potential but limits of insurance 424 00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:12,879 Speaker 1: to protect against climate change. 425 00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,040 Speaker 2: Thank you. Actually, it's been a pleasure being on your show. 426 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,320 Speaker 1: Thank you for listening to Zero. And now for the 427 00:25:26,359 --> 00:25:33,720 Speaker 1: sound of the week that is Hurricane Milton making a landfall. 428 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:36,720 Speaker 1: If you like this episode, please take a moment to 429 00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 1: rate or review the show on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. 430 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,040 Speaker 1: Share this episode with a friend or with someone who gambles. 431 00:25:43,760 --> 00:25:45,760 Speaker 1: You can get in touch at Zero pod at Bloomberg 432 00:25:45,760 --> 00:25:49,160 Speaker 1: dot net. Zero's producer is might Lee Raw. Bloomberg's head 433 00:25:49,160 --> 00:25:52,040 Speaker 1: of podcast is Sage Bowman, and head of Talk is 434 00:25:52,040 --> 00:25:56,080 Speaker 1: Brendan Nunan. Our theme music is composed by Wonderly Special 435 00:25:56,080 --> 00:26:00,200 Speaker 1: thanks to Aaron Rudkoff, Showan Wagner, Jessica beck Ethan's Time 436 00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,920 Speaker 1: Berth and Monique Mulima. I am a SHAPRTI back so