Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is Bloomberg business
Speaker 1: Week Inside from the reporters and editors who bring you
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Speaker 1: and Tim Stenebeck from Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: Let's get to what, as you know, is our top
Speaker 2: national story, the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge
Speaker 2: in Baltimore after containership struck it, sending nearly the entire
Speaker 2: roadway structure crumbling into the water. President Biden, addressing the
Speaker 2: incident earlier from the White.
Speaker 3: House, I told him we're going to send all the
Speaker 3: federal resources they need as.
Speaker 4: We respond to this emergency. I mean all the federal resources,
Speaker 4: and we're going to rebuild that port together.
Speaker 2: Everything so far indicates that this was a terrible accident.
Speaker 4: At this time, we have no other indication, no other
Speaker 4: reason to believe there's any intentional active all.
Speaker 2: Right, That, of course, was President Biden earlier from the
Speaker 2: White House. For the latest. Let's head to Bloomberg co
Speaker 2: host a Balance of Power Keayley Line. She is on
Speaker 2: site in Baltimore. Kelly a lot going on, and new information,
Speaker 2: obviously about this situation continues to come out. So what's
Speaker 2: the latest. Get us up to speed?
Speaker 5: Got well, Carol. Right now, this is still an active
Speaker 5: search and rescue effort, and officials here say that is
Speaker 5: still the number one priority. What we know is that
Speaker 5: at the time this happened one thirty am Eastern time,
Speaker 5: when the Dolly collided with a structural support of the
Speaker 5: bridge and it all came crashing down, there was a
Speaker 5: construction crew on the bridge working on fixing potholes, and
Speaker 5: a number of individuals fell into the water. Two have
Speaker 5: been rescued, one of which is hospitalized, but there are
Speaker 5: still six individuals unaccounted for. So that is really what
Speaker 5: everyone is focused on most immediately, is that rescue operation.
Speaker 5: Then of course it will turn to other questions, including
Speaker 5: the clearing of the debris so that this port, a
Speaker 5: very busy port of Baltimore, may be able to get
Speaker 5: back open at some point in time, And of course
Speaker 5: then there's the other effort of reconstructing this bridge, but
Speaker 5: again there is no clear timeline. We heard as much
Speaker 5: from the Maryland Governor Wes Moore when he spoke to
Speaker 5: reporters earlier today. He really emphasized that the focus right
Speaker 5: now is on saving lives. He did not put a
Speaker 5: timeline on anything. And in the interim traffic, commuter traffic,
Speaker 5: you know, goods getting shipped over the roads and goods
Speaker 5: getting shipped in transit by the waterways here around Baltimore
Speaker 5: are going to be disrupted.
Speaker 6: Kaylie.
Speaker 7: We did hear from the President that everything so far
Speaker 7: indicates that this was a terrible accident. What do we
Speaker 7: know about the accident, what do we know about the ship,
Speaker 7: what do we know about the crew on the Dohli
Speaker 7: and just how this happened.
Speaker 5: Well, the Dolli, of course, is a ship that with
Speaker 5: Singapore flags, had been chartered by Marriskin was carrying cargo
Speaker 5: of Marri's customers. Now, what is the law here in
Speaker 5: Maryland is that the ship actually needed to be piloted
Speaker 5: in Maryland waters by authorities from the state, so that
Speaker 5: was who would have been in charge of the vessel
Speaker 5: at the time this happened. But our understanding at this point,
Speaker 5: based on the briefing reporters have received from authorities, is
Speaker 5: essentially that there was a power outage, they lost propulsion,
Speaker 5: the ability to control the vessel and they did notify
Speaker 5: poor authorities here in Maryland of that. So Wes Moore
Speaker 5: actually the Governor talked in the briefing about how authorities
Speaker 5: did have time to make sure that no more vehicles
Speaker 5: came on to the bridge. They were able to halt
Speaker 5: more traffic because they did get warning a may day
Speaker 5: from the ship that this was happening. But ultimately, this
Speaker 5: was a ship, according to the Governor, that was traveling
Speaker 5: at eight knot speed, relatively fast considering they were just
Speaker 5: coming down the river, and ultimately could not be stopped
Speaker 5: from colliding into the structural support. So again, as we
Speaker 5: heard from the President, as we've heard repeatedly from the
Speaker 5: other authorities, really just looks like a terrible, tragic accident
Speaker 5: that of course will have consequences human most immediately regionally
Speaker 5: and even nationally as well.
Speaker 2: Kaylee, you've been on the ground for a few hours.
Speaker 2: Just describe the scene and what you've been noticing over
Speaker 2: that timeframe.
Speaker 5: Well, there are hundreds of people here, Carol, obviously very
Speaker 5: large media presence from local media here in the DMV
Speaker 5: area to national media as well, as there have been
Speaker 5: other trucks, things carrying equipment, even some trailers up to
Speaker 5: the point of the road that we at least are
Speaker 5: able to see. Of course, the road ultimately just hits
Speaker 5: a dead end and there is nothing beyond it because
Speaker 5: of that part of the bridge had collapsed. But starting
Speaker 5: to see some equipment coming in, and of course I
Speaker 5: am watching really at this hour for any time now.
Speaker 5: This Transportation Secretary Pete buddhaj Edge is expected to be
Speaker 5: here on site at the invitation of Governor Moore to
Speaker 5: work with authorities here as this effort is underway. He
Speaker 5: will likely reiterate a lot of what we've already heard
Speaker 5: from President Biden in terms of the federal government providing
Speaker 5: support not just to the search and rescue effort, but
Speaker 5: the reconstruction effort as well, and any funding that that
Speaker 5: might require. And even more immediately, I would point out,
Speaker 5: at two thirty pm Eastern time, we are expecting right
Speaker 5: here behind me, the NTSB to be delivering a briefing
Speaker 5: to the press. Of course, will keep all updated on
Speaker 5: those developments as we get them.
Speaker 7: Yeah, and we will take those briefings live as we
Speaker 7: do get them. Hey, Kaylee, I know you mentioned it's
Speaker 7: a search and rescue operation, is what's happening right now?
Speaker 7: That is our focus and the other questions will will
Speaker 7: certainly come later. It does raise questions about what happens
Speaker 7: to shipping out of Baltimore and what happens on the
Speaker 7: global shipping front. What can you tell us about the
Speaker 7: importance of the port and where some of the port
Speaker 7: traffic will go and how this could snarl a really
Speaker 7: delicate balance when it comes to global trade.
Speaker 5: Yeah, of course, we're all still reeling from the supply
Speaker 5: chain impacts we saw during COVID nineteen, and in some
Speaker 5: ways that may make actually more cargo operators and those
Speaker 5: coordinating these shipments to be a little bit more prepared
Speaker 5: and being able to reroute things, but that will likely
Speaker 5: be necessary and frankly for an unknown period of time.
Speaker 5: As you allude to, Tim, this is a very important port.
Speaker 5: It is actually the busiest port in the country and
Speaker 5: has been for thirteen years in a row in terms
Speaker 5: of the import and export of automobihicles, the vehicles, cars,
Speaker 5: light trucks. Almost eight hundred and fifty thousand of them
Speaker 5: went through this port in twenty twenty three, and that
Speaker 5: is now going to be likely heavily disrupted. We already
Speaker 5: have or have heard from the Ford executive speaking on
Speaker 5: Bloomberg earlier talking about how they're going to need to
Speaker 5: reroute some things in terms of car parks, for example,
Speaker 5: GM has indicated they'll have to reroute as well. And
Speaker 5: it's not just the auto industry that could be affected here.
Speaker 5: There's also a number of key commodities that come in
Speaker 5: and out of this port, one being cold. We're talking
Speaker 5: tens of millions of tons per year that could be
Speaker 5: disrupted in terms of those exports for an unknown period
Speaker 5: of time. Really, there's just a lot of transit, seaborne
Speaker 5: transit in particular, that is going to have to go elsewhere,
Speaker 5: whether that's north to places like New Jersey and New
Speaker 5: York and those ports there are south to the likes
Speaker 5: of Norfolk in Virginia. But there's going to have to
Speaker 5: be moving around. And that's just in terms of what
Speaker 5: moves over water. Of course, there is a huge part
Speaker 5: of I six ninety five that is now collapsed and
Speaker 5: is also submerged, and ground traffic, commuter traffic, and just
Speaker 5: freight distribution is going to be disrupted as well.
Speaker 2: All Right, Gonna leave it there, Hey, Kaylee, thank you
Speaker 2: so much. Bloomberg co host have balance of power at
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines, and we want to continue on the shipping
Speaker 2: impact and the significance of this port in Baltimore. It
Speaker 2: is one of the busiest ports, as we heard from
Speaker 2: Kelly on the US East Coast. With more on that
Speaker 2: side of the story. Let's bring in Bloomberg News. Trades
Speaker 2: are Brendan Murray joining us from London. Brendan, we know
Speaker 2: this is a major distribution hub, the biggest in Maryland specifically,
Speaker 2: share with us some more about size and scope and
Speaker 2: the significance of this port to the US supply chain.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's it's not a giant port for containers, but
Speaker 4: as your previous guests mentioned, there are some there's a
Speaker 4: diverse array of products that and goods that move in
Speaker 4: and out of Baltimore. Cars, coal, gypsum, uh, and a
Speaker 4: lot of the construction equipment, so you know, and farming equipment.
Speaker 4: You know, it's it's we're getting close to planting season
Speaker 4: for farmers, We're getting close to sort of spring construction season.
Speaker 4: So so those kinds of things could cause some logistical
Speaker 4: uh snarls or hiccups here in the in the weeks
Speaker 4: and months ahead. UH. A lot of a lot of
Speaker 4: this cargo will will be diverted to to places near
Speaker 4: I like New York or or Norfolk, Virginia, although one
Speaker 4: of the major car terminals that would be an option
Speaker 4: for Baltimore is in Brunswick, Georgia, and so that's you know,
Speaker 4: hundreds of miles to the south. So you can imagine
Speaker 4: that the delays that are going to be involved in
Speaker 4: shipping something from uh you know, Georgia, uh, you know,
Speaker 4: up the East coast as opposed to bringing it into Baltimore.
Speaker 4: So it's those kinds of wrinkles that are going to
Speaker 4: have to be worked out over the over the coming weeks.
Speaker 4: But but you know, they're still sort of untangling the
Speaker 4: mess that the port itself. Some of those auto terminals
Speaker 4: are on the ocean side of the bridge, so they're
Speaker 4: not going to be affected some of it if some
Speaker 4: of it is on the other side of the bridge,
Speaker 4: which which is apparently going to be closed for for
Speaker 4: a long time. So there's still a lot of details
Speaker 4: to work out about the extent of the of the disruptions,
Speaker 4: but it's they're going to be some at least minor
Speaker 4: disruptions uh for for a while, and they may turn
Speaker 4: into they may sort of snowball. If they can't work
Speaker 4: these out, that's yer over the next couple of weeks.
Speaker 7: Yeah, that's what I wanted to talk about. Used terms
Speaker 7: like hiccups and snarl and wrinkles. At what point do
Speaker 7: they become bigger disruptions that can affect the greater US
Speaker 7: and perhaps even global economy. Is that possible with the
Speaker 7: tragedy like this.
Speaker 4: Well, you know, we saw you a pretty clear example
Speaker 4: during the pandemic that an extra ten or twenty percent
Speaker 4: of cargo coming into another port that's not really ready
Speaker 4: for it can cause major congestion. That's what happened in
Speaker 4: Los Angeles when a lot of consumer demand in the
Speaker 4: US picked up, and you kind of had this sort
Speaker 4: of accordion effect where the rail the rail lines couldn't
Speaker 4: keep couldn't move the goods out of the port, and
Speaker 4: then the truckers, you know, couldn't move the you know,
Speaker 4: so it just kind of has this domino effect. So
Speaker 4: we definitely saw that. So if this cargo has got
Speaker 4: a divert elsewhere the other ports, if there's not opacity
Speaker 4: to handle and absorb the absorb that extra cargo, then
Speaker 4: you could see ships backed up to the extent to
Speaker 4: which we don't know yet, but that that kind of
Speaker 4: thing can definitely happen as we've seen before, you.
Speaker 2: Know, Brendan too. And I think, and you note this
Speaker 2: in your story. Let's not forget that, you know, distribution warehouses, right,
Speaker 2: it's always we talk about it as a great real
Speaker 2: estate play, a lot of investors do. But nonetheless, there
Speaker 2: are some massive distribution warehouses from the likes of Amazon, FedEx,
Speaker 2: under Armor, Home Depot, car companies like around that area
Speaker 2: in particular. So I guess we're all kind of waiting
Speaker 2: to see what those companies maybe say specifically about that.
Speaker 2: But that's another aspect to this story.
Speaker 4: Oh absolutely. I mean, these distribution centers are you know,
Speaker 4: whereas there are money that many of them are automated,
Speaker 4: so you know, you start throwing curveballs at them like this,
Speaker 4: and you know there's a kind of the whole system
Speaker 4: can kind of lock up. So there are definitely going
Speaker 4: to be problems regionally with shipping around Baltimore and the
Speaker 4: sort of the Philadelphia Washington corridor. The truck traffic is
Speaker 4: going to be you know, all that all the hazardous
Speaker 4: materials have to go over that bridge. That bridge now
Speaker 4: no longer is passable, so it's going to have to
Speaker 4: go somewhere else. It can't go through the Baltimore Harbor Tunnel,
Speaker 4: so you know you're looking at you know, a lot
Speaker 4: of extra traffic's going to be pushed on different roadways,
Speaker 4: and you know that's the middle of the Eastern Corridor
Speaker 4: where lots of goods flow on north and south.
Speaker 2: But as you said, still a lot to work out,
Speaker 2: and we'll find out whether or not what could be
Speaker 2: minor disruptions become something much more major. Brendan, thank you
Speaker 2: so much, really appreciate Bloomberg News Trades are Brendan Murray
Speaker 2: joining us there from London.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us
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Speaker 2: A check though on the trade on this Tuesday with
Speaker 2: an update on that back over to John Tucker.
Speaker 8: Right the major average is Carol still higher right now,
Speaker 8: the advance for the S and P five hundred and
Speaker 8: the NANSDA Composite Index approaching ten percent since the start
Speaker 8: of the year. After the two day pullback. Stocks again
Speaker 8: they were advancing today. And the best performing stock in
Speaker 8: the S and P five hundred right now, McCormick. It
Speaker 8: is up over nine percent right now, closing in on
Speaker 8: ten percent again. That's the best performing stock in the
Speaker 8: S and P five hundred after delivering an encouraging sales update.
Speaker 8: Worst performing stock right now that belongs to the United
Speaker 8: Parcel Service eight percent lower their revenue target beat estimates.
Speaker 8: But Will Street analysts kind of underwhelmed by the performance there.
Speaker 8: S and P five hundred eight points higher right now.
Speaker 8: That's up two tents of a percent, fifty two to
Speaker 8: twenty six on the index. The down Jones, dust Linemage
Speaker 8: up sixty seven points, a rise of two tenths of
Speaker 8: a percent. The NANDAC right now forty points higher, that
Speaker 8: is up a quarter of a percent. And we check
Speaker 8: the market for you all day long right here on
Speaker 8: Bloomberg Radio, I'm John Tucker, and then he's your Bloomberg
Speaker 8: Business Flash Carolyn tim all right.
Speaker 2: John Tucker, So appreciate it, Hey, John, of course, breaking
Speaker 2: down the trade. Don't forget we did get some economic
Speaker 2: points earlier today, some data points. It's a busy check
Speaker 2: full week, if you will, of economic data points. We
Speaker 2: had US consumer confidence holding steady and March Americans were
Speaker 2: seguine about their current situations tim but grew slightly more
Speaker 2: pessimistic about the outlook. And then new orders placed with
Speaker 2: US factories for durable goods that rose in the month
Speaker 2: of February for the first time in three months, so
Speaker 2: suggesting that firms are somewhat optimistic about the direction of
Speaker 2: the US economy.
Speaker 7: On that, gold earlier extended Monday's gain ahead of key
Speaker 7: US inflation data which we get on Friday that could
Speaker 7: provide creators with a firm review on when the Fed
Speaker 7: will start cutting interest rates. Gold did pair most of
Speaker 7: those gains, but still near an all time high of
Speaker 7: more than twenty two one hundred dollars per ounce.
Speaker 2: All right, So with a look at kind of the
Speaker 2: broader macro environment and also the precious metal space, we
Speaker 2: welcome the President World Markets at EverBank. He's Chris Gaffney.
Speaker 2: He's here in studio. EverBank, by the way, noting on
Speaker 2: its website thirty six point two billion in assets and
Speaker 2: twenty seven point nine billion in deposits as of the
Speaker 2: end of twenty three. Chris nice to have you in studio.
Speaker 9: How are you great? Thanks, it's great to be here.
Speaker 2: Well, it's great to have you here, and I have
Speaker 2: to start you guys think about the broad macro and
Speaker 2: things kind of coming at us, And I am curious
Speaker 2: if you have any thoughts about what's going on in
Speaker 2: Baltimore right now. We're looking once again very deeply and
Speaker 2: closely at US supply chains, and I'm just curious if
Speaker 2: you have any thoughts in terms of your world and
Speaker 2: how you think about it might impact potentially if we
Speaker 2: see some supply chain disruptions in terms of higher prices inflation.
Speaker 2: And we kind of we know the story.
Speaker 10: Here exactly, so you know, it will definitely lead to,
Speaker 10: if anything, higher inflation and higher inflation reading with supply
Speaker 10: chain disruptions, which could could.
Speaker 9: Lead the FED to.
Speaker 10: You know, STUF rate cuts are actually pause on their
Speaker 10: planned rate cuts right now. We believe that the FED
Speaker 10: pretty much has a predetermined.
Speaker 9: Rate cut path and it's really looking.
Speaker 10: For reasons to knock them off their path instead of
Speaker 10: reasons to cut. And you know, I think June is
Speaker 10: definitely on the table and they're they're going to.
Speaker 9: Look to cut in June.
Speaker 6: And how many do you think will the FED will
Speaker 6: do this?
Speaker 10: Well, they're still saying three and not every member of
Speaker 10: the Fed, right, And they they pulled back a little
Speaker 10: bit on their twenty twenty five. I think it's really
Speaker 10: dependent on you know, where they they believe inflation. Where
Speaker 10: this next PCE report comes in. They ignored the last two,
Speaker 10: and they seem to be tending to look to let
Speaker 10: inflation run hotter for longer because.
Speaker 2: They believe those longer term inflation expectations are anchored, right,
Speaker 2: They're sticking to that.
Speaker 10: And and you know, they are in kind of a
Speaker 10: situation where with the amount of debt that we have here,
Speaker 10: they need to lower interest rates, especially before it really
Speaker 10: has an impact on the on the global economy and
Speaker 10: the cost of service exactly, that cost of servicing debt
Speaker 10: is going to take more and more of the of
Speaker 10: the budget of the US budget. So by lowering interest rates,
Speaker 10: they'll have less debt service cost. It's not one of
Speaker 10: their mandates, you know, I know, it's it's mind you
Speaker 10: strong labor.
Speaker 7: And I didn't hear Powell say this at all during
Speaker 7: the press by extra mandate in the background.
Speaker 9: And I do believe that, and maybe people.
Speaker 2: Have come on and said, you know us debt. You know,
Speaker 2: all of a sudden you go back ten years, twenty years,
Speaker 2: it's like every conversation was about it. Right, it's gone
Speaker 2: to the wayside, but it is up this morning.
Speaker 10: And you know, by cutting rates, they'll they'll ease that
Speaker 10: debt service. And I really think that from what Paul
Speaker 10: was saying in his pressure, they're going to let inflation round.
Speaker 9: A little hotter. I think they'll adjust their inflation target.
Speaker 10: I don't think two percent is realistic, and I think
Speaker 10: they'll adjust their inflation target up. What that does to
Speaker 10: the markets? You know, is two and a half three
Speaker 10: percent inflation going to kill the markets?
Speaker 9: I don't think so. And I think they continue to
Speaker 9: lower rates.
Speaker 2: Why do they have to make that adjustment? Is it
Speaker 2: because the macro factors, say, we're in a very different
Speaker 2: environment post pandemic.
Speaker 10: I think this is sticky inflation, and I think the
Speaker 10: the interest rates are going to settle at a higher
Speaker 10: level than the markets expecting right now because because of
Speaker 10: the higher inflation, is stickier inflation and.
Speaker 2: Because of macro like, is it like, what is it
Speaker 2: that's changed in our inflationary environment?
Speaker 10: Yeah?
Speaker 9: I think that.
Speaker 10: You know, we have the supply chain interruptions, but I
Speaker 10: think in general, the economy is doing well. The labor
Speaker 10: market is is very resilient, consumers are resilient. We've got
Speaker 10: very strong US consumers. They don't seem to be adjusting
Speaker 10: their spending, you know, confident. While the longer term confidence
Speaker 10: is questionable. US consumers are still very strong, so they're
Speaker 10: going to continue spending. We see services continuing to you know,
Speaker 10: inflationary pressures on services. Any supply chain interruption, you know,
Speaker 10: that's going to add to inflationary pressures also.
Speaker 7: So let's get to gold and precious metals. Given the
Speaker 7: narrative that you just gave, why are we seeing gold
Speaker 7: near an all time high?
Speaker 10: Well, absolutely, it's a a it's kind of an inflation hedge.
Speaker 10: You know, traditionally it's shown as an inflation hedge. But
Speaker 10: what we see on Everbank's World Market desk is is
Speaker 10: individual investors concerned about the global economy. They're using it
Speaker 10: as a uncertainty hedge or a catastrophe hedge, and we're
Speaker 10: seeing people come in. Individual investors come in and want to
Speaker 10: own a hard asset. One of the things that propelled
Speaker 10: gold to the record levels was central bank buying, and
Speaker 10: central banks were switching their reserves out of you US
Speaker 10: dollars into precious metal, into gold, and I think some
Speaker 10: of the consumers are starting to just start to do
Speaker 10: that also and wanting that hard asset, wanting the diversification
Speaker 10: outside of just owning the traditional asset classes.
Speaker 2: Chris, because you do see so much on that platform,
Speaker 2: quantify it for us. Is it back to levels we
Speaker 2: saw pre pandemic? Is it give us an idea of
Speaker 2: if you're seeing buying, how much has it how much
Speaker 2: has it kind of picked up in terms of frequency buying?
Speaker 10: Isn't quite back to the levels we saw, you know,
Speaker 10: post pandemic. We went through a silver shortage and we
Speaker 10: saw spreads on the physical silver widened dramatically. They're not
Speaker 10: back there yet. The spreads are narrower. Demand is up though,
Speaker 10: and we're seeing more and more demand and talking to individuals,
Speaker 10: it's more about concern about where the global economy is.
Speaker 10: In the US economy, the valuations on the equity markets,
Speaker 10: you know, seeing maybe some overvaluation there and really pushing
Speaker 10: people to have they want to have something to hold.
Speaker 10: So we're seeing the physical goal precious metals. We haven't
Speaker 10: seen so much the inflows into the ETFs.
Speaker 7: It's more the physical demand. Interesting, Okay, what about demand
Speaker 7: for for bitcoin? Like because when we think, yeah, well,
Speaker 7: when we when we talk about some some people come
Speaker 7: on our program and say, are our bow case for
Speaker 7: bitcoin is that this is literally digital gold?
Speaker 9: Right?
Speaker 6: Do you believe it is?
Speaker 9: No?
Speaker 6: I still supply yes, Uh, we know how much is there?
Speaker 10: Yeah, it's not controlled by any certain central government like
Speaker 10: fiat currencies are. So it does share some of those,
Speaker 10: It shares some of those. Is it a hard asset though?
Speaker 9: Is it? You know?
Speaker 10: Where is it? Where is it stored? You know there's
Speaker 10: question marks. We haven't had a mount coox in a while,
Speaker 10: but you know, questions about that is it's in the ether.
Speaker 10: So I think for some investors they feel it's an
Speaker 10: alternative to gold. I'm still I think the jury's out.
Speaker 10: I think it's got to establish.
Speaker 9: There's a long history with gold.
Speaker 10: And so I think that is seen as the safe haven,
Speaker 10: the uncertainty hedge. People can trust that it's a hard asset,
Speaker 10: it's there.
Speaker 9: In their portfolio.
Speaker 10: I still feel bitcoin is more speculation, especially with the
Speaker 10: volatility it has.
Speaker 11: On your platform.
Speaker 9: Do you no we do not we do not deal
Speaker 9: in cryptos.
Speaker 11: Yet we do not deal in I mean it's you know,
Speaker 11: we're we're a bank, so we're not encouraged to deal
Speaker 11: in the cryptosphere.
Speaker 6: There are there are traditional banks getting into crypto.
Speaker 2: Sorry, go ahead, Carol, No, no, no, well, I was
Speaker 2: just going to say thirty seconds, because you guys are
Speaker 2: a bank and you do see so much. I mean,
Speaker 2: how do you describe the economy and forgive me because
Speaker 2: I only do. We only do have about thirty seconds left.
Speaker 9: Not a problem.
Speaker 10: So you know, I think the US economy remains strong
Speaker 10: mainly on the back of very strong and resilient US consumers.
Speaker 10: Labor market's still good, so you know, we'll see the
Speaker 10: higher interest rates have not had an impact yet. And
Speaker 10: I think the FED is still going to go ahead
Speaker 10: and cut and trying to get us to this Goldilock
Speaker 10: scenario where they can cut rates and still keep inflation
Speaker 10: down while strong labor markets.
Speaker 2: So no stress points.
Speaker 10: Real quickly, Oh, there's the debt. The debt levels and
Speaker 10: and on both consumer and government is really the stress
Speaker 10: level and that's the real question mark. And then of
Speaker 10: course the geopolitical.
Speaker 2: Tensions, so appreciate it thank you so much and for
Speaker 2: going along with us because we know we had a
Speaker 2: lot of breaking news. Chris Caffney, thank you, President of
Speaker 2: World Markets at EverBank, joining us in studio Blue Mack.
Speaker 1: Journal.
Speaker 2: How about you let me drive?
Speaker 9: Oh no, no, no, no, honey, please, I'll do the gravels.
Speaker 2: I want to drive.
Speaker 4: It's a good question.
Speaker 6: This is good drive to the Globe.
Speaker 4: Dot com for me.
Speaker 1: Think well, jo it on on Bloomberg Radio.
Speaker 2: All right, TikTok, everybody, Just about seven minutes left in
Speaker 2: the Tuesday trading, and for a second day in a row,
Speaker 2: we're seeing some selling here into the close. We're pretty
Speaker 2: much just around our worst levels, if not at our
Speaker 2: worst levels, as John Tucker just mentioned for the S
Speaker 2: and P, Dow and the Nasdaq one hundred. So let's
Speaker 2: get to our drive to the close.
Speaker 7: Guest, h Yeah, we got with us. Leo Kelly, founder
Speaker 7: and CEO at Verdan's Capitol Advisors. He joins us from
Speaker 7: Hunt Valley, Maryland. Leo, good to have you back with us. Look,
Speaker 7: before we talk markets, you're joining us from just north
Speaker 7: of Baltimore, only about half an hour from the collapse.
Speaker 7: Francis Scott keep Bridge. We've been covering the story all day.
Speaker 7: We're thinking about everyone affected by the tragedy. Just give
Speaker 7: us an idea about how important this bridge is that
Speaker 7: crosses the Outer Harbor.
Speaker 3: Well, it's the east side of Baltimore and it is
Speaker 3: a significant thoroughfare. So the disruption is going to be
Speaker 3: pretty extraordinary, especially because the folks just on either side
Speaker 3: of that bridge. The next path from one side to
Speaker 3: the other is a long, long commute. Plus you've got
Speaker 3: the port shutdown, so it's an extraordinary event. Obviously, it's
Speaker 3: at the front of everybody's mind here in Baltimore and
Speaker 3: the surrounding area. So we're praying for the folks that
Speaker 3: are impacted, both both now and over the next in
Speaker 3: the next couple of years. And Baltimore. Baltimore didn't need
Speaker 3: this break, so we're hoping this will be a quick recovery.
Speaker 9: Obviously, Yeah, we.
Speaker 2: Do too, and we've certainly heard from the President, from
Speaker 2: the Transportation Secretary and other officials saying that this is
Speaker 2: going to be certainly priority and they're going to commit
Speaker 2: whatever efforts and I guess money it sounds like in
Speaker 2: federal funds to get this done as quickly as possible,
Speaker 2: you know, Having said that, Leo, and we certainly we
Speaker 2: know that there's still a lot to be known, and
Speaker 2: there's you know, lives that's you know that we're waiting
Speaker 2: to hear if there's been you know, lives lost and so.
Speaker 11: And so forth.
Speaker 2: But it made me kind of think, you know, we
Speaker 2: live in a world where we are constantly reminding that
Speaker 2: things can come at us from unexpected directions, different magnitudes,
Speaker 2: different scale, if you will. But it kind of keeps
Speaker 2: us on our toes and we're waiting to assess how
Speaker 2: much of this might have an impact on the US
Speaker 2: apply chains and a lot to be known, and obviously
Speaker 2: the longer it's a problem, the longer are the higher
Speaker 2: potential for it to become a supply chain problem. Having
Speaker 2: said that, how do you think about kind of where
Speaker 2: we are in this market environment? Does it feel tenuous
Speaker 2: at all? Does it feel like sure footed? How do
Speaker 2: you see it?
Speaker 3: It does feel a little bit tenuous in today's activity side,
Speaker 3: it does feel a little bit tenuous, And I think
Speaker 3: it feels tenuous because you have a pocket of the
Speaker 3: market that's running up to extraordinary levels. I think the
Speaker 3: last time we were on we were talking about some
Speaker 3: of the AI bubble that was brewing, and we're really
Speaker 3: at this interesting tug of war right now. The FED
Speaker 3: is still trying to battle back inflation. Inflation is being
Speaker 3: very persistent, and we've talked about this before. It's just
Speaker 3: because there's so much capital flushing around in the system.
Speaker 3: So the market is excited about the fact that the
Speaker 3: economy is being resilient. It's excited about the fact that
Speaker 3: inflation has slowed, but I would stress slowing inflation is
Speaker 3: still inflation and the FED is still fighting it. So
Speaker 3: I think one of the challenges that the economy has
Speaker 3: that the market has is that when the FED gets
Speaker 3: more aggressive, inflation does slow, but then we start to
Speaker 3: see an economy showing danger signals, so the FED slows
Speaker 3: down or stops rates. I mean, this concept of six
Speaker 3: rate cuts this year I always thought was absurd because
Speaker 3: as soon as you start to get the least bit dubbish,
Speaker 3: the inflation numbers start to signal higher again. So this
Speaker 3: is going to be an interesting tug of war with
Speaker 3: valuations higher. So, and we haven't had much volatility for
Speaker 3: the since October. I do think this is a time
Speaker 3: for discipline.
Speaker 7: Quite frankly, Hey, Leo very briefly, what are some of
Speaker 7: those warning signs that you're starting to see, if any
Speaker 7: right now?
Speaker 3: Well, I think you have a mixed message around the economy.
Speaker 3: Small business confidence has been down, inflation is going back up.
Speaker 3: We get mixed messages with the ism surveys versus the
Speaker 3: employment numbers. So I think that's one of the first challenges, right,
Speaker 3: some of the lead indicators. And so really what's interesting
Speaker 3: about this current economic data that's coming out is anybody
Speaker 3: who wants to come to a conclusion can find the data.
Speaker 3: If you want to be positive, you can find the data.
Speaker 3: If you want to be negative, you can find the data.
Speaker 3: Where I'm concerned is that inflation has remained persistent, got it?
Speaker 3: And the Fed, I mean, the FED keeps talking about
Speaker 3: the fact that they're going to cut rates, and they
Speaker 3: just start to get a little more dubbish.
Speaker 2: Okay, forgive us, forgive us, Leo, We've got to run.
Speaker 2: We'll check in with you soon. Leo Kelly, founder and
Speaker 2: CEO at Burden's Capital Advisors there in Maryland.
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