Speaker 1: Check it down Man, Now Down Man Monday morning of
Speaker 1: Liverpool's twenty nine The up Beat in the Book podcast
Speaker 1: with Gil Alexander Guessing lines for weekken. Wow we can
Speaker 1: in the National Football League. Chris Andrews on deck to
Speaker 1: get a going My Mission book from the South Point
Speaker 1: Hotel Casino Sports Book, The Director Upset Sports Book that is.
Speaker 1: And today not only the weekly exercise of trying to
Speaker 1: find value in the upcoming weekends lines in the NFL,
Speaker 1: but story time Classic in tribute to the Breeders Cup
Speaker 1: which just passes by this past weekend. A story time
Speaker 1: classic included today on the Beating the Book podcast Enjoying
Speaker 1: It's a Numbers Game with your host Gil Alexander. Do
Speaker 1: you want those beauty as to believe? In Adams? It
Speaker 1: is a numbers game Monday morning right here at the
Speaker 1: Visa the bagas as the Information Network series Sex of
Speaker 1: Channel two O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa App.
Speaker 1: It's all about guessing lines today for week ten in
Speaker 1: the National Football League, the weekly exercise that has served
Speaker 1: us well this year. Uh. And as always we bring
Speaker 1: in the gentleman who I believe has a story time
Speaker 1: in store today. Uh. He is in town. He is
Speaker 1: uh somewhere here close by, not in studio with us today,
Speaker 1: but he's the star of the show. He has the
Speaker 1: South Point Hotel Casino sports book director. He is my
Speaker 1: mesh book of chrisy Andrews. Good morning, Chris. What's going on, pal? Yeah,
Speaker 1: we've got a little story time in honor of the
Speaker 1: Breeders Cup, but that was over the weekend, a little
Speaker 1: horse racing story. All right, you know what that means, Chris.
Speaker 1: Then we got to get through everything real real quick.
Speaker 1: Look at split. We got a bunch of teams that
Speaker 1: are off this week. I think it'll be a little
Speaker 1: tighter schedule. Okay, all right, well how did you do
Speaker 1: this weekend? Let's start there. Saturday, Well, let's go back
Speaker 1: to Thursday. Thursday rugal was very good for US. Uh
Speaker 1: niners one but not covered on a I was on teasers.
Speaker 1: Probably didn't cover their teasers either. Uh. Saturday not so good.
Speaker 1: We got beat up a little bit, mostly by the public.
Speaker 1: You know, the wise guys. We did pretty good against
Speaker 1: but the public kind of got to us on Saturday.
Speaker 1: But yesterday we made up for it. You know, bookmakers
Speaker 1: love to cry, and there's no crying yesterday. We we
Speaker 1: did pretty good. You did pretty good. Um, I had
Speaker 1: no one's crying for you. We we We've established that
Speaker 1: many times. So storytime coming up. Tribute to the Breeders
Speaker 1: Cup this past weekend. By the way, how did you
Speaker 1: do with the Breeders Cup? Did you win anything? Uh?
Speaker 1: You know, I had a couple winners and a couple
Speaker 1: of small exactas, but overall lots of money, not nothing major,
Speaker 1: you know. But I did not finish on the plus side, Yeah,
Speaker 1: I was. I played some of the horses that were
Speaker 1: on the show on Friday, didn't it didn't go particularly well? Yeah,
Speaker 1: not really. Yeah, but I had dinner with Manny last night.
Speaker 1: He had Dino rosso in the classic you know, So
Speaker 1: that's what you bet those Italian horses. If one all right, Well,
Speaker 1: the NFL yesterday, and we will review everything from yesterday
Speaker 1: if you're just landing on the show right now at
Speaker 1: tribute to the old Stardust radio show of Guessing lines,
Speaker 1: and uh, this is really it's sort of a review
Speaker 1: of what everything that happened in the NFL yesterday while
Speaker 1: we try to find value in next week's upcoming line.
Speaker 1: So let us begin there for with Thursday night, we
Speaker 1: have the Chargers at the Raiders. And let me just
Speaker 1: say this was this We were just talking with mentioned
Speaker 1: Paul about this. This was such a strange day in
Speaker 1: the National Football League. And since you bring up the
Speaker 1: Chargers first, let's just start there, because that might have
Speaker 1: been the most most unpredictable of all the outcomes, not
Speaker 1: not that the Chargers beat the Packers, but that they
Speaker 1: beat them so soundly twenty six to eleven. Uh. They
Speaker 1: not only cover as four point or four and app
Speaker 1: point dogs, but they win out right in that game,
Speaker 1: do the Chargers? So the charges are four and five.
Speaker 1: They fired your boy, Ken Wizzon Hunt last week, Chris.
Speaker 1: When I say you boy, I've been beating him up
Speaker 1: for like the whole how long have we been doing
Speaker 1: this show? However long has been I've been beating up
Speaker 1: Ken Wizzen Hunt. So what was what was his first
Speaker 1: crime against you as a Steeler? Uh coordinator? What was
Speaker 1: the first time that you uh you were not saying,
Speaker 1: I don't know, you know, even when he got to
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl as the coach of the of the
Speaker 1: of the Cardinals, you know, I thought like the team
Speaker 1: carried him earlier wasn't him so much as the team
Speaker 1: that carried him. And you know, and all honestly, they
Speaker 1: probably should have beat the Steelers in that Super Bowl.
Speaker 1: And but you know, if you remember back they when
Speaker 1: they got to the playoffs, people said it was the
Speaker 1: worst playoff team in history. Now, all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: you've got Kurt Warner quarterback, and Larry Fitzgerald a wide receiver,
Speaker 1: and a couple other guys who really like just excelled
Speaker 1: for a couple of weeks, got into the Super Bowl,
Speaker 1: should have won that game probably against the Steeler, but didn't.
Speaker 1: But I mean, I think this he's been one of
Speaker 1: those guys that just does not utilize his talent properly.
Speaker 1: And I think he's been given talent over the years
Speaker 1: but just has has never really uh you know, build
Speaker 1: it the way he should, you know. So anyway, it's
Speaker 1: just I don't want to pretend like I'm any kind
Speaker 1: of expert in football. I'm not. But I just I
Speaker 1: know what I see, and I see a guy that
Speaker 1: just has not done what he should have been with
Speaker 1: a talent around it. Well, if one game by the
Speaker 1: Chargers yesterday's any indication they didn't miss him, Uh, Shane Stuken.
Speaker 1: I hope I'm staking him. I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly.
Speaker 1: Jacob who's in for Jeff Parlay this morning, and let
Speaker 1: me know how that's pronounced. But he's the new o
Speaker 1: C after wizzen Hunt was fired on Monday, and uh listen.
Speaker 1: The Chargers held the ball against the Packers for thirty
Speaker 1: six minutes, nearly thirty six minutes. They averaged six point
Speaker 1: five yards per play. They didn't have a three and
Speaker 1: ount on any of their nine possessions. Actually eight nine
Speaker 1: was the end of the game run out. The clock
Speaker 1: only had to punt punt once. The running game for Charges,
Speaker 1: which had been held under forty yards in four straight
Speaker 1: games at a season I A hundred fifty nine yards.
Speaker 1: Melvin Gordon eighty two touchdowns, Austin Ekeler twelve for seventy.
Speaker 1: Michael Badgeley kicked four field goals his first game back
Speaker 1: from injury. Philip Rivers two ninety four. Mike Williams with
Speaker 1: the first one hundred yard receiving day in his three
Speaker 1: year career three catches for one eleven. That's kind of surprising.
Speaker 1: That was the first one hundred yard day for Mike
Speaker 1: Williams and then okay, even if you anticipated, well, maybe
Speaker 1: they'll get a bump offensively, maybe you know this team
Speaker 1: is always capable of doing well offensively. It was the
Speaker 1: defense that was the real shocker. Chargers pressured Aaron Rodgers
Speaker 1: all day, minimal blitzing. They sacked him three times. Joey
Speaker 1: Bosa had one and a half. Melvit Ingram one and
Speaker 1: a half. Bosa, by the way, five and a half
Speaker 1: sacks of his past three games. Yes again. On offense,
Speaker 1: Chargers gained two hundred fifty yards in the first half
Speaker 1: and a pair of scoring drives that started inside their ten. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the defense gave up only fifty yards UM in the half,
Speaker 1: the first time since twenty eleven they had allowed that
Speaker 1: few in the first half of any game. It was
Speaker 1: only the third time under Rodgers first since that the
Speaker 1: Packers have had fifty yards are fewer in the first half.
Speaker 1: Matt Lafleur quote, Really, when you look at it at
Speaker 1: the half, we were pretty fortunate to only be down
Speaker 1: nine and nothing. We'll get into more of the Packers
Speaker 1: woes when we get to them, but that's essentially the
Speaker 1: Chargers just utter domination Yesterday uh, they're at Oakland here.
Speaker 1: This is a sneaky good Thursday night game. Now Oakland
Speaker 1: is four and four. Chris, let me just raise my hand.
Speaker 1: I thought they'd be terrible with this schedule, and their
Speaker 1: defense isn't very good, but offensively they get it done
Speaker 1: so so tip of the Captain John Gruden. Derek Carr
Speaker 1: nine yard touchdown past the Hunter Renfro with two or
Speaker 1: four left. Then Karl Joseph breaks up a fourth down
Speaker 1: pass in the end zone with three seconds left to
Speaker 1: preserve a Raiders thirty one to twenty four win over
Speaker 1: the Lions yesterday, their first game back in Oakland since
Speaker 1: Week two. They had traveled over twenty thousand miles four
Speaker 1: road games, neutral site since then. Car two touchdowns, no
Speaker 1: picks in a sac Jacob's on the ground twenty eight
Speaker 1: of one to only two touchdowns. They were seven or
Speaker 1: thirteen on third downs again with a lot of penalties
Speaker 1: though te six. We'll have to clean that up. But
Speaker 1: first time since the merger of the Raiders got four
Speaker 1: touchdowns from rookies in a single game. Renfro, Jacobs twice,
Speaker 1: Foster Brow. All of that said a game dare I
Speaker 1: say with mid season playoff implications, I'll say Oakland minus
Speaker 1: one and a half. Uh, you know, I see it
Speaker 1: anywhere from pick them. Actually I see one spot even
Speaker 1: has the Chargers one, but mostly pick them to the
Speaker 1: Raiders one and a half. I'll tell you what, I
Speaker 1: think this is a really good game. And as I
Speaker 1: was looking at my numbers, I wasn't sure what to
Speaker 1: make this. I think the Raiders should be a very,
Speaker 1: very slight favorite. I'm gonna open the game one myself. Uh,
Speaker 1: but you know, listen to some of the pundits this morning.
Speaker 1: The Chargers have two safeties coming off the injured list
Speaker 1: that should be able to play this weekend, this Thursday.
Speaker 1: And I think that's, uh, that's a team that suddenly
Speaker 1: getting healthier. And I would be very careful betting against
Speaker 1: the charges. That. That being said, it's very impressed with
Speaker 1: Oakland yesterday. And you know, I've knocked the hell out
Speaker 1: of Derrick car you know, since he's been a rookie,
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, he was very impressive yesterday. I'm
Speaker 1: looking at qbrs, he might have had the highest QBR
Speaker 1: of anybody, uh yesterday, I think Jimmy, and where's my
Speaker 1: notes here? Jimmy Garoppolo might have had a better one,
Speaker 1: of course that was being played on Thursday. But Derek
Speaker 1: Car I thought really was actually Car actually had a
Speaker 1: little bit better QBR than than Garoppolo. But he was very,
Speaker 1: very good. I thought the team looked good. Defense probably
Speaker 1: needs a little help, but you know what, Stafford is
Speaker 1: just a very good quarterback and the game four hundred
Speaker 1: yards staffed the Lions that but you know, Oakland kept
Speaker 1: him out of the end zone and they needed to.
Speaker 1: And I think there's a really really good game. But
Speaker 1: I'm gonna open the Raiders one. I think they deserved
Speaker 1: to be a very slight favorite in this game. Okay,
Speaker 1: the way we don't want to tell people, don't want
Speaker 1: to give the impression that Derwin James will be back Thursday.
Speaker 1: He will not. He underwent successful surgery to repair a
Speaker 1: stress fracture in his foot. If you were called back
Speaker 1: on August twenty two, his that the typical time frame
Speaker 1: for that is three to four months, So end of
Speaker 1: November is when they're scheduled to get him back. But
Speaker 1: you're right there getting a whole bunch of guys back,
Speaker 1: and he's probably the headliner of all that. Though not
Speaker 1: this Thursday for Derwin James. At least that's the word.
Speaker 1: Right now, Let's do a Sunday game, Chris, Sunday. We
Speaker 1: have the Chiefs and the Titans. Chiefs and Titans. Uh So,
Speaker 1: I guess this comes down to is Patrick Mahomes playing
Speaker 1: or not? Right, that's the first thing here. But the Chiefs, Yeah,
Speaker 1: go ahead, excuse me. I get seen by the numbers
Speaker 1: that are out there. And not everybody has numbers on
Speaker 1: this game, but I get the numbers that are out there.
Speaker 1: The assumption is right now that he will be playing,
Speaker 1: that he will be playing. Okay, Chiefs beat the Vikings
Speaker 1: yesterday twenty six to twenty three. I just keep let me.
Speaker 1: Can I just say this? The Vikings should be so
Speaker 1: much better than they are. Like you know how people
Speaker 1: say the some of the parts or what is it?
Speaker 1: The the whole is greater than the some of the
Speaker 1: part some of its parts. This is the opposite to
Speaker 1: me with the Vikings, the some of its parts are
Speaker 1: greater than the whole. Uh. Chiefs win it yesterday again,
Speaker 1: twenty three. They do so as five and a half
Speaker 1: point home dogs. Good for them, Matt More thirty five
Speaker 1: for two seventy five touchdown. Note picks. He was sacked
Speaker 1: five times, but Damian Williams twelve for huge touchdown running
Speaker 1: that game, Tyreek six for one forty through the air,
Speaker 1: six catches one forty yards and a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes
Speaker 1: they did again without him, the reigning league m VP,
Speaker 1: who missed the second straight game while recovering from a
Speaker 1: dislocated kneecap. But if you are to believe what Chrissy
Speaker 1: just said, he will be back for this one at Tennessee.
Speaker 1: By the way, Harrison Butker career best, tying fifty four
Speaker 1: yard field goal to tie the game than a forty
Speaker 1: four yard or to win it yesterday snapping the Chiefs
Speaker 1: three game losing streak at Arrowhead. Don't hear that very often,
Speaker 1: so um, and it should be noted also with the
Speaker 1: Chiefs yesterday, because I think this this gets lost. In
Speaker 1: addition to not having Mahomes, who who justifiably gets the headlines,
Speaker 1: they didn't have their left tackle Eric Fisher growing injury.
Speaker 1: They didn't have their right guard Laurent DuVernay tardif ankle.
Speaker 1: They didn't have Kendall Fuller in the secondary. They didn't
Speaker 1: have defensive ends Frank Clark or alex Oka four, so
Speaker 1: they were playing really shorthanded. The Chiefs yesterday still got
Speaker 1: it done. And then there's Tennessee. Uh this is probably
Speaker 1: this is one of the few things I ended up
Speaker 1: getting right yesterday, Carolina beating Tennessee and covering in the process.
Speaker 1: Tennessee lost to Carolina thirty to twenty has three and
Speaker 1: a half point dogs. Ryan Tannehill teven thirty nine one,
Speaker 1: one touchdown, two picks, sacked four times, four carries for
Speaker 1: thirty eight yards. That a touchdown from him, but they
Speaker 1: had eleven penalties did the Titans for ninety nine yards
Speaker 1: and they just can't get the field goal kicker thing right.
Speaker 1: You remember that game where Cairo Santos missed four. Yesterday,
Speaker 1: Ryan suck up. He was added the roster. He missed
Speaker 1: three from forty three, fifty six and forty four. Uh
Speaker 1: so that's not good. So Kansas City had to see
Speaker 1: assuming Mahomes all say, Kansas City minus ten, whoa, oh,
Speaker 1: Kansas City at Tennessee. Uh, you're way high three and
Speaker 1: a half. So with Mahomes just three and a half,
Speaker 1: Well that's you know, like I said, I'm looking at
Speaker 1: this and uh yeah, I mean, they haven't listed as questionable,
Speaker 1: but you know, everything I've seen and heard indicates that
Speaker 1: they expect him to play. Now, you know, um, you know,
Speaker 1: I think you're way higher. You know, I gotta tell
Speaker 1: you if that's, if that's and that's three and a half,
Speaker 1: I'll take that every day, Well don't you You might
Speaker 1: be right? But you know, yeah, I'm not sure we're
Speaker 1: going to go as far as you with that. Maybe not,
Speaker 1: but you know, yeah, this is I think Kansas City
Speaker 1: is shown to be a very good team. But let
Speaker 1: me say this about Andy Reid and the guy as
Speaker 1: a head coach makes a million strategic errors, but as
Speaker 1: a quarterback coach, he can get a lot out of
Speaker 1: a quarterback. Now, like I said, we talked about more
Speaker 1: came in from my homes. You know, this is not
Speaker 1: just some rookie that all of a sudden is way
Speaker 1: better than we ever thought. But Andy Reid coached him
Speaker 1: up pretty good. You know, he's really gotten good in
Speaker 1: production at it more in a couple of weeks. And
Speaker 1: he's played you know, he had a very good game
Speaker 1: against the Vikings and we win or lose. He played well. Uh,
Speaker 1: I think you're you're you're way high. But I think
Speaker 1: that right now, I'm going to be very careful with
Speaker 1: this game, probably open for because I think if my
Speaker 1: Homes comes back, you know, they are going to pound
Speaker 1: this team pretty good. But you know, I'm just be
Speaker 1: careful with these favorites, you know, is what I would say.
Speaker 1: You know, So I'm gonna open for, but I think
Speaker 1: they're way high on this one. I'm way high. But
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what. So even if I did the
Speaker 1: thing where okay, let's say it was Matt Moore, all right,
Speaker 1: So it was Matt Moore at Tennessee, um, is Tennessee
Speaker 1: favored by a field goal in that game? I don't
Speaker 1: think they should be. So even if that's a pick that,
Speaker 1: I'm still high, right, but it should be like six
Speaker 1: or seven, Like I'm surprised that's only three with my Homes. Yeah.
Speaker 1: So you're saying if this game was at Kansas City,
Speaker 1: it's then it would be like, you know, so my
Speaker 1: tennant or something like that. Yeah. No, no, so let's
Speaker 1: establish it by tennis too high. But let's say if
Speaker 1: it's if it's Matt Moore in Kansas City at Tennessee,
Speaker 1: is Tennessee favored by like what would you think that
Speaker 1: would be like, So I would say it would be
Speaker 1: around to pick them, and so then it should probably
Speaker 1: be like Kansas City minus six or Kansas City, you know,
Speaker 1: MIGHTUS six and a half whatever it is. So I'm high,
Speaker 1: but three is way low to me. Three and a half. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: it's wad Yeah. You know, listen, I see your point.
Speaker 1: You're making some very valid points on this, but uh,
Speaker 1: you know again, i'd be very careful with you know,
Speaker 1: land points on the road. And I'm not a big
Speaker 1: systems guy, you know, a matter of fact, scoff at
Speaker 1: most of them. But one I've watched over the years
Speaker 1: comes to a fruition at a pretty alarming rate, probably
Speaker 1: like about sixty eight percent something like that. And that's
Speaker 1: just off the top of my head. When you go
Speaker 1: from a home dog to a road favorite, you usually
Speaker 1: want to play that that play against that team. And listen,
Speaker 1: I fell into the trap yesterday. I had Minnesota in
Speaker 1: all my contests. I just yeah, I mean, I fell
Speaker 1: into that trap. Man. I could see early on if
Speaker 1: I could have won, god knows I could have won that,
Speaker 1: it would have been a miracle. I didn't have the
Speaker 1: right side, but I would just be very careful here.
Speaker 1: I think that, like I said, you go from a
Speaker 1: home dog to a road favorite. I would tread very likely.
Speaker 1: All right, I want to I want to mulligan all that,
Speaker 1: but I'll still say Kansas City by the seven and
Speaker 1: a half. The point still remains. I'm way higher on that,
Speaker 1: uh than than what is being post it out there.
Speaker 1: All right, we'll do more of these. Hang on. We
Speaker 1: always say one thing, you don't want to think parallel
Speaker 1: to the bookmakers. Lord knows, Chris, I've been doing that
Speaker 1: all year. It is service pretty well though. We'll come back.
Speaker 1: We'll do more guesting lines week nine. There is a
Speaker 1: story a week ten. Rather, there is a story time
Speaker 1: coming up as well on the show today tribute to
Speaker 1: uh the Breeders Cup. This week it's a horse raising,
Speaker 1: a classic story time from Chrissy. It's all brought you
Speaker 1: by the bet MGM app. First time players can make
Speaker 1: their first bet. They're completely risk free up to five
Speaker 1: hundred dollars in the same guys to bring you Atlantic
Speaker 1: Cities Premier Hotel and casino Borgata will be with you
Speaker 1: all season long with a wide variety of betting options
Speaker 1: and easy deposit withdrawal methods. Just download the app, use
Speaker 1: bonus code VISA and five hundred sign up. Let's get
Speaker 1: your five hundred dollar risk free bet. That's bonus code
Speaker 1: v s I N five hundred to place you first
Speaker 1: bet MGM wager risk free. You can sign up anywhere,
Speaker 1: but you gotta be in the state of New Jersey
Speaker 1: to place a bet. Bet MGM. It's how you play
Speaker 1: the game, dowlow. The app today gotta be twenty one
Speaker 1: year older. New Jersey only restrictions apply. Gambling them call
Speaker 1: one eight gambler. It's the bet MGM app VSA in
Speaker 1: five hundred guessing lines week ten, coming back right here
Speaker 1: on the Numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a
Speaker 1: numbers game with Jill Alexander pussing lines. Week ten in
Speaker 1: the National Football League is what we do. Try to
Speaker 1: uncover some value interesting Kansas City Chiefs line. I would
Speaker 1: say it uh Tennessee. Either way, let us continue because
Speaker 1: we do have a story time coming up from Chrissy.
Speaker 1: What's next? Chris Buffalo at Cleveland, Buffalo at Cleveland. It's
Speaker 1: funny you mentioned the Cleveland Browns because I'm singing right here.
Speaker 1: Jermaine Whitehead waved waved this morning by the Cleveland Browns.
Speaker 1: UH safety Jermaine Whitehead waved just hours after he boasted profanity,
Speaker 1: lace and threatening comments on social media media following Sunday's
Speaker 1: loss at Denver. So that's the end of that UM
Speaker 1: as far as this game is concerned. So, um, what
Speaker 1: is it again? Cleveland? Where is the where's the game
Speaker 1: in Buffalo? At Buffalo at Cleveland? So six and to
Speaker 1: Buffalo two in six Cleveland? Jeez? Yesterday and the Redskins
Speaker 1: law the Bills win over the Redskins. Josh Allen fourteen
Speaker 1: sixty one touchdown, no picks, was sacked two times, Devin's single.
Speaker 1: Tarry was the real offensive star for the Bills yesterday,
Speaker 1: twenty carries for ninety five yards, touchdown, three catches for
Speaker 1: forty five yards. The Bills held the Skins to two
Speaker 1: of eleven on third down. No real surprise there. Dwayne
Speaker 1: Haskins not doing much. Buffalo off to its best start
Speaker 1: since going seven and one in three UM, although there's
Speaker 1: six wins have come against teams that entered yesterday with
Speaker 1: combined seven and thirty one record, so let's not go crazy.
Speaker 1: Second half though, they got things together yesterday after Washington
Speaker 1: played with him for a half a p was doing
Speaker 1: big things. They limited the Skins to seventy eight yards
Speaker 1: of offense and a field goal. And then, Chris, there
Speaker 1: are the Cleveland Browns. Um. They lose to Denver yesterday
Speaker 1: by the score of twenty four to nineteen. Cleveland, who
Speaker 1: had all that hype before the season betting markets, No
Speaker 1: betters loved no team more than they did the Cleveland
Speaker 1: Browns Baker Mayfield yesterday twenty seven forty two and defeat
Speaker 1: two seventy three, one touchdown note picks, two sacks. They
Speaker 1: allowed Brandon Allen. What's your favorite moment of the Brandon
Speaker 1: Allen Arkansas years? Chris, Oh my god. I had to
Speaker 1: look up to see who he played. I think most
Speaker 1: people did. Brandon Allen was twelve of twenty one two
Speaker 1: touchdowns note picks. He was sacked three times. It was
Speaker 1: his first start since the twenty sixteen Liberty boll How
Speaker 1: about that, um, Listen. The Browns ran thirty more plays
Speaker 1: in the Broncos seventy three to forty three. They couldn't
Speaker 1: make stops on defense when they needed to, uh, they
Speaker 1: lit a couple of big drives first of all Philip
Speaker 1: Lindsay nine for ninety two and a touchdown on the
Speaker 1: ground no offense, three catches for one fifty yards, including
Speaker 1: a big seventy five yard touchdown pass from Allen where
Speaker 1: he broke tackles and really put the Ronicles ahead and
Speaker 1: put Cleveland in they come from behind situation. The whole time.
Speaker 1: They could never sort of overcome that early big play.
Speaker 1: Denver took a seventeen to twelve halftime lead by holding
Speaker 1: Cleveland to four field goals after the brown stalled at
Speaker 1: the Denver twelve, nine and thirteen all in the second quarter,
Speaker 1: and twice the Bronco was denied the Browns on fourth
Speaker 1: down in the second half, one of which, let me
Speaker 1: just say this was a fourth and inches at Denver's
Speaker 1: five yard line with five twenty three left in the
Speaker 1: third quarter. The score is still seventeen to twelve, and
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield appeared to have clearly, and I mean clearly
Speaker 1: made the first down. A no horrific spot, absolutely horrific spot.
Speaker 1: Challenge from Freddie Kitchens fails, and Denver proceeds to go
Speaker 1: on a ninety five yard touchdown drive right after that.
Speaker 1: So I don't I don't know what your excuses on defense,
Speaker 1: but Cleveland, Chris just appears to be a bunch of
Speaker 1: really really amazing athletes, right. Odell Beckham Jr. Made a
Speaker 1: couple of great plays, but they can't get it together
Speaker 1: the two in six, I I guess I have to
Speaker 1: kind of favor the two and six team over the
Speaker 1: over the six and two team, though based on perception,
Speaker 1: I'm going to guess here what I think the line
Speaker 1: will be, not what I think it should be. Uh
Speaker 1: as as as is the case with this show. So
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say Cleveland minus three. Tell me how far
Speaker 1: off I am? Yeah, you're off by about half a point.
Speaker 1: It's two and a half. Um, I'm gonna open the
Speaker 1: game too, though I do see one two out there,
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna open a game too. It is the NFL,
Speaker 1: so I know, you know, just look at yesterday. I
Speaker 1: know crazy things can happen. But I did have Buffalo,
Speaker 1: and when I say had'm I'm just in a couple
Speaker 1: of contests. I'm not out there betting you know, my
Speaker 1: money on a you know, eleven and ten basis. But
Speaker 1: I did add Buffalo and a couple of contests, and
Speaker 1: we mentioned them last week. I'm guessing the lines. And
Speaker 1: you know, I hate to do this to you, Agal,
Speaker 1: but we said the Redskins are just a terrible team,
Speaker 1: and Buffalo beats up on terrible teams in their m
Speaker 1: O so far this year. Yeah, where do you put Cleveland?
Speaker 1: I think they're one of those terrible teams. To tell
Speaker 1: you the truth, now, like I said, it is the NFL.
Speaker 1: When I was making my numbers, I thought this should
Speaker 1: be picked myself because, like I said, it is the NFL.
Speaker 1: But I also a very interesting conversation I had over
Speaker 1: the weekend. I know a guy that knows a guy,
Speaker 1: and I think this is a pretty good source that
Speaker 1: the Giants. Uh, maybe on the lockery, but from coaching
Speaker 1: on up through ownership. We're very glad to get rid
Speaker 1: of Odell Beckham and they saw him as a great,
Speaker 1: great talent that could really be a cancer in the
Speaker 1: locker room. And I know he stood up for Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield last week. Uh, you know, which I think was
Speaker 1: at I really do. But there we had some issues
Speaker 1: yesterday with Odell Beckham and this team is a team
Speaker 1: that's in turmoil. Kitchens, I think it's not up to
Speaker 1: the job, you know, Mayfield. I think it's one of
Speaker 1: those guys that could be a good quarterback if he
Speaker 1: gets the right kind of coaching, and he's not had
Speaker 1: that yet, but I do think he's a very uh
Speaker 1: He's got a strong talent behind them. I'm like, you know,
Speaker 1: I hate to be like one of these squares, but
Speaker 1: I like Buffalo in this game. But you know, one
Speaker 1: of the things I've noticed over the years and again
Speaker 1: somebody I think our friend from Australia down is the
Speaker 1: new Up did the thing on it. You know, you're
Speaker 1: when you see a number that's two and a half,
Speaker 1: you're better off taking it. Of course, you want to
Speaker 1: take the three just in case, but when you see
Speaker 1: a two and a half, you want to take it.
Speaker 1: When you see a three and a half, you probably
Speaker 1: better off laying it. Tell that to the Packers yesterday,
Speaker 1: but you know that they're not either not a d percent.
Speaker 1: But I kind of like Buffalo in this game. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open to They'll probably beat me, but that's okay.
Speaker 1: I have a feeling the public will be on Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I think the public might be right on this one.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna I'm gonna open to listen, listen to the
Speaker 1: Browns remaining schedule. Okay, so that they've played the first
Speaker 1: half there, two and six, this is the this is
Speaker 1: the final eight games Buffalo this weekend. That much, okay,
Speaker 1: So one more besides that, it's Buffalo this weekend. Then
Speaker 1: it's home Pittsburgh home Miami, so there's a three game
Speaker 1: homestand then at Pittsburgh home Cincinnati at Arizona home Baltimore
Speaker 1: at Cincinnati. That schedule is really favorable. So there's still
Speaker 1: time for them to get this going, but they gotta
Speaker 1: start this weekend. Well, I can tell you this. I
Speaker 1: had one of my sharpest players, one of my absolute
Speaker 1: sharpest guys, came in and that Cleveland to win the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl last week. Again, I'm sure he saw that
Speaker 1: they were three and a half on the road, another
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorite. That didn't Megan, and
Speaker 1: I guess that we went to forward dead game. But
Speaker 1: you know that he bet him, and I'm sure he
Speaker 1: was looking at that very same schedule you just mentioned
Speaker 1: and that that's a very valid point. But but they
Speaker 1: better get together pretty quick for sure. By the way,
Speaker 1: Jacob booz In for produce number five, Jeff Parlay, this
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with this game between the Bills
Speaker 1: and the Browns. But since Bills beat the Redskins and
Speaker 1: Chris he mentioned the Redskins, you throw up that tweet. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is for Washington Redskins fans, the Redskins who are
Speaker 1: one in eight um setting their own history here. The
Speaker 1: Redskins have now gone three straight games without a touchdown
Speaker 1: for the first time in their eighty eight year history.
Speaker 1: Thank you Andrew Siciliana for that tweet right there. All right,
Speaker 1: let's do one more. Chris Arizona at Tampa Bay, Arizona
Speaker 1: at Tampa Bay, Arizona with the extra rest here they
Speaker 1: lost to the Niners, gave it a go. They covered
Speaker 1: on Thursday night. You remember that game where Kenyan Drake
Speaker 1: just showed up in his trade from the Dolphins. Fifteen carries,
Speaker 1: a hundred ten yards, a touched down, four catches for
Speaker 1: fifty two Arizona three d fifty seven total yards against
Speaker 1: the Niners and feet on Thursday. And then there's Tampa Bay. Chrissie,
Speaker 1: I had Tampa Bay yesterday, as so many of us did.
Speaker 1: And this is just this is by the way, in
Speaker 1: circle was plus five and a half. So this this
Speaker 1: ended up being a loser for all bucketeers betters. Uh. There,
Speaker 1: but look, the Seahawks miss a field goal at the
Speaker 1: end of regulation, it would have been a cover for
Speaker 1: the Bucks. Instead, it goes to overtime and you either
Speaker 1: push or you'll lose. In contests with five and a
Speaker 1: half Jamis Winston four three thirty five, two touchdowns, no picks,
Speaker 1: sacked twice, but one extremely costly turnover as he has
Speaker 1: want to do in the fourth quarter, a fumble that
Speaker 1: was not even jarred from his hand, I don't believe,
Speaker 1: just kind of left his hand. I was recovered by
Speaker 1: Rashie Green led to a key field goal for Seattle. Uh.
Speaker 1: Even with Mike Evans, who I say each and every
Speaker 1: week on this show, show me a better wide receiver
Speaker 1: than Mike Evans. There isn't one twelve catches, one eighty
Speaker 1: a touchdown, but eleven penalties for the Bucks eighty two yards.
Speaker 1: They lose to the Seahawks. Uh in overtime after being
Speaker 1: up twenty one to seven. They snatched defeat from the
Speaker 1: jaws of victory. Seahawks beat him forty to thirty four.
Speaker 1: They give up five touchdown passes UH to Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: We'll get to Seattle later. But um, the Bucks just
Speaker 1: do Bucks things. But their home here against Arizona, they're
Speaker 1: a better football team than the Cardinals are. I'll say
Speaker 1: the Bucks minus four and a half. Yeah, act you
Speaker 1: anywhere from four to five. Actually, i've seen one five
Speaker 1: and a half. Also, I'm gonna open at five. I
Speaker 1: like sort of towards the higher end. Like I said,
Speaker 1: it's one five and a half, but I don't want
Speaker 1: to quite go there yet. Uh. You know, listen, Tampa
Speaker 1: did a lot of things right. That's did a few
Speaker 1: key things wrong. But you know, Russell Wilson has a
Speaker 1: way of winning those games. And I had Tampa and
Speaker 1: all my contests, you know, I hate to tell you
Speaker 1: there's been one contest. I had them plus six and
Speaker 1: a half. Okay on that way, Yeah, I know, so
Speaker 1: I get the count that as a winner and then
Speaker 1: one contest, and I mean and Arizona. Listen, I'll be
Speaker 1: the first thing that Kyler Murray's better than I thought.
Speaker 1: But here's an interesting thing that looking at murray stats,
Speaker 1: I think that's that three times for thirty seven yards.
Speaker 1: That just shows you take these really deep dropbacks. That's
Speaker 1: a good point and you know, I guess Russell Wilson
Speaker 1: has to do this, saying the boy Russell Wilson, I think,
Speaker 1: you know he and I don't know if he's the
Speaker 1: m v P or not. He's right there though. This
Speaker 1: kid has had just an unbelievable career. UM and I
Speaker 1: don't think Murray's is there and might maybe never going
Speaker 1: to get there. But he's better than I thought, I admit.
Speaker 1: But anyway, I'm gonna go with five. I want to
Speaker 1: stay a little bit towards the higher side of this,
Speaker 1: and uh, you know, we'll see what happens. But how
Speaker 1: about Tampa really looked pretty good and probably should have
Speaker 1: won that game or at least covered it. I have
Speaker 1: Russell Wilson to win the m v P at five
Speaker 1: to one. I said this on the show a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks ago. UM got him right before he dropped
Speaker 1: down from five to one. I love having that ticket.
Speaker 1: He's got to be the front runner down. Very curious
Speaker 1: when they repost this week what he'll be if you
Speaker 1: think whose second place? Uh, we already talked about. We'll
Speaker 1: talk about more about Aaron Rodgers coming up. Terrible game
Speaker 1: for him yesterday. Deshaun Watson's got to be in the mix.
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, I guess is in the mix. McCaffrey's got
Speaker 1: you know, that's exactly right, Chris Christian McCaffrey should be
Speaker 1: in the mix. He just his box scores week after
Speaker 1: week are ridiculous. But I think, but I think Russell
Speaker 1: Wilson's the favorite. For sure. We'll come back. Yeah, we'll
Speaker 1: do some more guessing lines for week ten. Can you
Speaker 1: believe it? Week ten in the National Football League? My goodness,
Speaker 1: we'll do that. And of course story Time on the Way,
Speaker 1: special story Time Classic right here on the Numbers game
Speaker 1: at Feasting. Welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill
Speaker 1: Alexander guessing lines Week ten in the National Football League.
Speaker 1: You know Chris Andrews who's alongside here? Uh it's not
Speaker 1: only the director of the South Point Hotel because you
Speaker 1: know sports book, but he's an author in case you
Speaker 1: missed it, the name of the book. Then one day,
Speaker 1: Chrissie Howard, how the sales going? How happy are you
Speaker 1: with everything that's transpired with this book? Well, I gotta
Speaker 1: tell you the results seemed to be extremely favorable, So yeah,
Speaker 1: very happy. I got a brilliant forward written in that
Speaker 1: book to by one girl Alexander. So that's certainly didn't hurt.
Speaker 1: And I do appreciate that. I really beautiful forward and uh,
Speaker 1: you know, without you, that book wouldn't be possible. So
Speaker 1: let's also give credit words do well. It's very kind
Speaker 1: of you, but it's an honor to be part of it,
Speaker 1: and it's all you. And there might there be a
Speaker 1: sequel one day, a follow up to that. Uh you know, yes,
Speaker 1: maybe because I've been talking to him. I don't want
Speaker 1: to say yet, you know, but there's somebody who's been
Speaker 1: in the business, probably a little longer than me, and
Speaker 1: says that he really liked my writing and my storytelling,
Speaker 1: and perhaps he and I will collaborate auto book of
Speaker 1: you know, very similar stuff. I'll tell you off there.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure he's ready to say this yet, you know,
Speaker 1: but and I don't want to jump the gun on him, so,
Speaker 1: you know, but you maybe me because you know, I
Speaker 1: just want to say this because you you honestly, and
Speaker 1: this doesn't get stated enough when we have these reason.
Speaker 1: By the way, for those who are just landing here again,
Speaker 1: story time was always the portion of guessing lines and
Speaker 1: podcast form that when it was told in its original form,
Speaker 1: when you went through them the first time, Uh, just
Speaker 1: no one cared about anything else but the stories. They
Speaker 1: were so great. You are a great storyteller, both in
Speaker 1: print but particularly in audio form. And I don't think
Speaker 1: that gets stressed enough. And that's on me because others
Speaker 1: have really good stories too, It's just that they don't
Speaker 1: tell them as well either, right, So like it's part
Speaker 1: of that as well, Like you have that talent should
Speaker 1: be noted, thank you, and that you know. I don't
Speaker 1: want to have any false modesty, but I think you're right.
Speaker 1: I think I I, you know, or whatever I think
Speaker 1: I do tell a pretty good story. So you know,
Speaker 1: this book I think would be if we actually do it,
Speaker 1: I think would be very good. And I think probably
Speaker 1: it might even sell better than the first one, you know,
Speaker 1: So I kind of hope we do it. There's a
Speaker 1: shot of the first one then one day forty Years
Speaker 1: of Book Making in Nevada by Chris Andrews available and so,
Speaker 1: by the way, it's something Visa dot Com, the Visa
Speaker 1: app right now available where all books are sold, including Amazon. Alright,
Speaker 1: I look forward to that stuff off fair Chrissy and
Speaker 1: we'll by the way, we'll get a story time from
Speaker 1: Chris later on the show, So no pressure after what
Speaker 1: I just said. All right, what's next on Sunday? Okay,
Speaker 1: we've got the Giants after Jets. Oh geez, did these
Speaker 1: two teams? Did these guys play already? And no, no, no,
Speaker 1: that was Buffalo that went to play both the Giants
Speaker 1: and the Jets and consecutive weeks in the same stadium.
Speaker 1: So of course these guys are meeting for the first
Speaker 1: time interconference game Giants and Jets. Giants are two and six.
Speaker 1: Now we haven't seen the Giants play yet. They played
Speaker 1: a night against the Cowboys where they are seven point dogs. Still, yes,
Speaker 1: seven point dollars. You might see some six and a
Speaker 1: half and a half word six and a half, six
Speaker 1: and a half here at the South Point Hotel Casino.
Speaker 1: And then the Jets yesterday, who lose to the Dolphins. Yes, indeed, Uh,
Speaker 1: the Jets lose twenty six to eighteen to the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Where do we begin. Sam Donald seven thirty nine for
Speaker 1: two sixty one touchdown, one pick. He was sacked three times.
Speaker 1: Jets committed ten penalties for a hundred five yards. Uh.
Speaker 1: The Jets win eleven plays on the first drive of
Speaker 1: the game for a touchdown in the seven and nothing lead,
Speaker 1: and then after that they were crapola. How's that for
Speaker 1: a technical term? Uh, they actually fell below. They're actually
Speaker 1: behind Miami now technically in the standings because of the
Speaker 1: head to head tiebreaker on this Uh, it's the second
Speaker 1: ward start. They matched their second ward start in franchise
Speaker 1: history at one and seven. Uh, they were oh and
Speaker 1: eight back in. I will say this. I don't mean
Speaker 1: to get into superlatives on people, but have you ever
Speaker 1: seen like if you take Sam Donald's performance two weeks
Speaker 1: ago against the Patriots, I don't know if you can
Speaker 1: recall this, but he had three picks in that game,
Speaker 1: and one was more horrific than the previous, Like this
Speaker 1: was Jamis Winston on steroids, panicky, and then his one
Speaker 1: pick yesterday, Like the one sequence of this game that
Speaker 1: that symbolized everything was the end of the first half
Speaker 1: where the Jets appeared to have scored a touchdown, it
Speaker 1: was reversed, and then Donald goes ahead and throws this
Speaker 1: just absolutely horrific pick where it's just like what are
Speaker 1: you doing? Uh? And it's picked off by the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Of the one yard line. The Dolphins subsequently get a
Speaker 1: safety that by the way, it wasn't ruled a safety
Speaker 1: on the field, but the people in the booth had
Speaker 1: to come down and say, hey, by the way, that's
Speaker 1: a safety. And then after they punt after a safety,
Speaker 1: the Jets end up with the field goal. So they
Speaker 1: end up with five points at the end of that
Speaker 1: sequence anyway, But it was just absolute bad news bears
Speaker 1: of football stuff. But Donald, have you do you ever
Speaker 1: remember a guy that just panics in the way he
Speaker 1: does on the field and throws just the worst picks
Speaker 1: you'll ever see, sort of the Jamis Winston Modern day Award. Well,
Speaker 1: all these quarterbacks coming out of college, I really didn't
Speaker 1: like any one of them. And the knock that I
Speaker 1: had against Donald is he does not protect the ball.
Speaker 1: I mean that interception. That interception was ridiculous, ridiculous, one
Speaker 1: of the worst plays I've seen all year. But you know,
Speaker 1: he did that in college, he's doing that in the pros.
Speaker 1: And there's a kid that really needs some coaching and
Speaker 1: right now he is not getting and I can tell
Speaker 1: you that. And Adam Gates has to be one and
Speaker 1: done with this team. They've and you know Gil, but
Speaker 1: one play too. I kind of watched again this morning,
Speaker 1: the bad snap from center. H Yeah's that a safety
Speaker 1: or was that a touch? It was a safe because
Speaker 1: the Dolphins couldn't recover. Yeah yeah. But I mean the
Speaker 1: team was totally lethargic. I mean you could see like
Speaker 1: they just kind of stood around and saying, I hope
Speaker 1: that other guy picked it up, you know, I mean,
Speaker 1: where's the passion? Yeah, where's the passion? I mean football
Speaker 1: is a passionate game, man, And uh well, I think this,
Speaker 1: you know, this is just a totally lost team right now. Listen.
Speaker 1: I don't want to be lazy here, but Giants had jets.
Speaker 1: I mean it's a it's a pick um to me.
Speaker 1: I mean, what do you to make this line? Well,
Speaker 1: I see anywhere from a pick all the way up
Speaker 1: to two and a half. I even see two and
Speaker 1: a half with some juice on the favorite. I think
Speaker 1: that's a little too high. And once again you're you know,
Speaker 1: Giants are a home dog and you go to a
Speaker 1: road favorite. You know, that's like the one system that
Speaker 1: really kind of looked at. By the way, it was
Speaker 1: Johnny Detroit who ran that for me A couple of
Speaker 1: years ago. Lasting you take a look at and I
Speaker 1: think it's like about sixty eight percent. I'm like, so
Speaker 1: I'm gonna give credit where that's as well. I think
Speaker 1: I opened the two right now. And of course, the
Speaker 1: Giants play tonight, we'll see where that goes. But like
Speaker 1: I said, I'd be very careful betting on the Giants.
Speaker 1: But who the hell wants to be Jett? I mean,
Speaker 1: the Giants could change our opinion tonight, Absolutely they could.
Speaker 1: But right now, as we sit here right now, how
Speaker 1: is this not a coin flip in anybody's minds? Right?
Speaker 1: It's like the same that they play in the same stadium. Um,
Speaker 1: what are you getting from either team? Babe? Sickly? Yeah, yeah, boy,
Speaker 1: you know. I mean we have to go to the schedule.
Speaker 1: Which game we just stay away from right now? This
Speaker 1: one might be that would be the one that would
Speaker 1: be the Yeah so far, alright, let's squeeze in one
Speaker 1: more here, Atlanta at New Orleans. Alright, Well, nothing much
Speaker 1: to say here because they're both off buys, right, So
Speaker 1: Atlanta's won and seven. New Orleans is seven and one.
Speaker 1: I guess do we know if it's Matt Ryan or
Speaker 1: not let's let's make a line with Matt Ryan versus
Speaker 1: Matt Shaw. Although Matt Shaw had this great game last week,
Speaker 1: we almost put up, we put up north of four
Speaker 1: hundred yards. But also Ryan is probable is probable right now,
Speaker 1: all right, And we know that Drew Brees is back
Speaker 1: because he was already before the bye. So I'll say
Speaker 1: New Orleans minus ten and a half. Just cut right
Speaker 1: to the chase. You're a little light. I see anywhere
Speaker 1: from eleven and a half to twelve and a half. Um, okay, boy,
Speaker 1: I think I kind of like the higher number here,
Speaker 1: the twelve and a half. Um. You know again it
Speaker 1: is Vienna. Hell, so be careful with all these chalks,
Speaker 1: you know. But uh, you know, Atlanta, this is I
Speaker 1: think a lot of us, me included, surprised that Atlanta
Speaker 1: did not make a coaching move during the bye. I
Speaker 1: think a lot of us kind of saw it coming. Uh,
Speaker 1: there's problems with Atlanta. Quarterback is really not one of them.
Speaker 1: They have a million other problems here in New Orleans. Uh.
Speaker 1: You know, if they're the best team in the NFC,
Speaker 1: they certainly might be. You know, they're they're they're right there.
Speaker 1: And I think there's a team that's really gonna be
Speaker 1: tough to beat down the stretch. But that being said,
Speaker 1: it's that, you know, it's kind of a rivalry, and
Speaker 1: a lot of people outside of the South don't realize
Speaker 1: that that is a pretty big rivalry game. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: go with the twelve and a half. I think the
Speaker 1: public will be on the Saints, but I'd be careful here.
Speaker 1: I think, you know, Atlanta is a pretty good live
Speaker 1: dog to cover this number. Do you think any of
Speaker 1: these guys will be fine? But obviously Jake Gruden has
Speaker 1: already gone in Washington, But if you take Dan Quinn,
Speaker 1: you mentioned Adam Gaze, uh, Freddy Kitchens, who we've already
Speaker 1: touched on. UM. I don't know. Does it benefit these
Speaker 1: teams to make moves mid season that has waited out
Speaker 1: now till the end. I very rarely see these mid
Speaker 1: season moves make a lot of sense unless you just,
Speaker 1: you know, want to clear out the locker room in
Speaker 1: the bad karma or anything else that's going on. But
Speaker 1: I wouldn't expect that a whole ton of improvement after
Speaker 1: doing that, So I think most of those guys will
Speaker 1: last the season. But Kitchens and Gage they gotta be
Speaker 1: wanted done, both of them and Quinn. I have a
Speaker 1: feeling he was gone at the end of the season.
Speaker 1: You know, it's a it's a shame because he had
Speaker 1: a great had great success is taking to Atlanta to
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Probably shouldn't want it. Um and had
Speaker 1: a great career as a coordinator, defensive coordinator. But it
Speaker 1: just you know, since that Super Bowl loss, they have
Speaker 1: gone straight downhill in Atlanta, and I think they got
Speaker 1: to make a change, got to We'll come back more
Speaker 1: Guessing Lines Week ten. Chris Andrew's at Andrew's Sports. By
Speaker 1: the way, if you want to follow him on Twitter.
Speaker 1: I'm at beating the book at Andrew's Sports. Uh more
Speaker 1: week tend guessing lines looking for value. So far, Kansas
Speaker 1: City the one number that appears to be uh way
Speaker 1: off to me. Everything else kind of in pocket. We'll
Speaker 1: see if we can find some more. It's coming up
Speaker 1: on a numbers game right here at Visa. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to a numbers game with kil Alexander. We won't talk
Speaker 1: about this in Guessing Lines because they obviously played a
Speaker 1: game in London yesterday and we'll be on by. But
Speaker 1: Houston crushes Jacksonville three. I was saying about Sam Donald Jacob,
Speaker 1: do you ever remember do you ever remember a guy
Speaker 1: who panics more and throws worse looking picks? I would
Speaker 1: say this about Gardner Minshew. Do you even remember a
Speaker 1: guy who is better at when scrambling or when flushed
Speaker 1: out of the pocket, approaching the line of scrimmage but
Speaker 1: knowing it's as if that that thing, that line that
Speaker 1: we see on TV, it's as if he's aware of
Speaker 1: that line right. Clearly it's not there, but it's as if,
Speaker 1: you know, I've never seen someone better at approaching the
Speaker 1: line of scrimmage and throwing it right before he crosses
Speaker 1: it than Gardner Minshew. Now that said, I think Nick
Speaker 1: Foles is starting in a couple of weeks because it
Speaker 1: was almost can you run that tweet that we had there.
Speaker 1: This is an interesting tweet because this was if you
Speaker 1: watch that London game and you know Houston got it
Speaker 1: done twenty three and we're obviously not gonna guess lines
Speaker 1: regarding this team. But the other one that I sent,
Speaker 1: do you remember the one regarding the here we go?
Speaker 1: This is R. J. White. Some awful play calling from
Speaker 1: the Jags in the first half as they refused to attack,
Speaker 1: the Texans banged up secondary Deep going to start a
Speaker 1: conspiracy theory that Di Filippo intentionally sabotaged Minshew to get
Speaker 1: his Super Bowl quarterback back in the lineup, and you
Speaker 1: can't stop me. It means you can't stop me from
Speaker 1: starting the conspiracy theory. But I think all those things
Speaker 1: are true. I think Minshaw is really good at that,
Speaker 1: and I think he's done. I think Folds will get
Speaker 1: the start. Uh in two weeks, Minshu ends up four
Speaker 1: and four as the Jaguar starter. If that is indeed
Speaker 1: the case. We remember Chrissie Andrews from the South Point
Speaker 1: Hotel Casino sports book is the director of said sports book.
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if you agree with that about Minshew,
Speaker 1: but I was. I was admired that about him, Like
Speaker 1: I've never seen a guy do that so well. Point,
Speaker 1: you know, I think going into next year, um, and
Speaker 1: I think Dave Damna Chick, who's with the NFL network,
Speaker 1: tweeted this out yesterday, when Falls gets back, he'll be
Speaker 1: the quarterback. But Mint, you might be the starter next year.
Speaker 1: And look for the for Foals to be the starting
Speaker 1: quarterback in Chicago next year. So I don't know, that's
Speaker 1: a lot of pieces to a puzzle, but yeah, I
Speaker 1: wouldn't called crazy. Somebody's gonna be somebody's gonna be the
Speaker 1: quarterback in Chicago next year, Chris, and I don't think
Speaker 1: it's the guy who's there now. All right, what's next, man,
Speaker 1: what's next year? Okay, we've got Baltimore at Cincinnati. Alright. Well,
Speaker 1: Baltimore with the you know, arguably one of the big
Speaker 1: wins of the NFL season last night they beat the
Speaker 1: Patriots for those who missed, at thirty seven to twenty.
Speaker 1: They do it as three point dogs at home. Lamar
Speaker 1: Jackson seventeen of twenty three sixty three yards. That's through
Speaker 1: the year, one touchdown, no picks, one sack, sixteen carries
Speaker 1: sixty one yards for another two touchdowns, just filling up
Speaker 1: a statute. He's on the shortlist of m VP candidates. Um,
Speaker 1: even though I think it's uh, you know, a little
Speaker 1: bit down the list, but he's on the shortlist anyway.
Speaker 1: Mark Ingram fifteen carries a hundred fifteen yards. The Ravens
Speaker 1: out possessed if you will, the Patriots thirty seven minutes
Speaker 1: in one second. Nine Uh, they were the NFL's leading
Speaker 1: ground attack heading in they got two ten yards on
Speaker 1: the ground. Basically this game last night, they were up
Speaker 1: seventeen to nothing, and then the game sort of turn
Speaker 1: on Cyrus Jones muffing a punt that led to a
Speaker 1: New England touchdown, then mark Ingram fumble that made it
Speaker 1: seventeen to ten. The Pats ended up down seventeen to
Speaker 1: thirteen at the end of the first half, and they
Speaker 1: were getting the ball to begin the second half, so basically,
Speaker 1: you know, looked like it was gonna be a Ravens runaway,
Speaker 1: and then halfway through, you're like, look at these Patriots,
Speaker 1: They're gonna win this game the way they're they're handling in.
Speaker 1: But then a Julian Edelman fumble after the Patriots matriculated
Speaker 1: down the field on that first drive in the secon
Speaker 1: and half, Edelman fumbles Marlon Humphrey to the house. Um,
Speaker 1: And I don't want to say they they never looked back,
Speaker 1: because the Patriots did score subsequently to cut to twenty,
Speaker 1: but they never trailed from that point forward. That was
Speaker 1: really a play they needed to get a bigger lead
Speaker 1: and boost confidence at that point. Uh, maybe the signature
Speaker 1: moment of the game, Brady through a pick with twelve
Speaker 1: fifty seven left. Jackson then led a methodical nine and
Speaker 1: a half minute drive that ended with a one yard
Speaker 1: score from him that ended New England's thirteen game winning
Speaker 1: streak dating the last season, including the playoffs. And then
Speaker 1: the first drive of the game, it was very uncharacteristic
Speaker 1: New England night Baltimore lined up for a field goal,
Speaker 1: she Lee Calhoun jumped into the neutral zone to give
Speaker 1: the Ravens the first down. They ended up scoring a touchdown.
Speaker 1: Very Unpatriots like. So it's very unpatriots like from the
Speaker 1: very beginning. And yet they were still in it for
Speaker 1: a while because they're the Patriots. Baltimore tenant two straight
Speaker 1: up after a bye under Jim Harbaugh now who took
Speaker 1: over back in two thousand and eight. I know how
Speaker 1: you feel about John Harbaugh. Not Jim Harball, John Harball,
Speaker 1: who you've called the second best coach in football for
Speaker 1: many years, Chris. And then there's Cincinnati who they're playing.
Speaker 1: Cincinnati is now because Miami one, they're the only winless
Speaker 1: team in football and have the currently number one pick
Speaker 1: in the draft. Of the draft were to be today,
Speaker 1: which of course it is not Baltimore minus ten on
Speaker 1: the road at Cincinnati. That's my guess. Uh, yeah, you're
Speaker 1: right on, it's ten and ten and a half. I
Speaker 1: like the lower number. Once again, we have a home
Speaker 1: dog that goes to the road favorite and uh that's
Speaker 1: three plays right there. You have got that one system.
Speaker 1: I think there's not risk too high. By the way,
Speaker 1: we haven't mentioned Zach Taylor has a one and done
Speaker 1: coaches and probably should be. But you know, you know,
Speaker 1: the Brown family there notoriously cheap, and I'm sure he
Speaker 1: has more than a one year contract and they are
Speaker 1: going to eat the rest of those couple of years,
Speaker 1: even though they have the wrong guy the wrong position.
Speaker 1: But even though that the wrong positions, absolutely, But you know,
Speaker 1: you know you've been watching football. I mean I've seen
Speaker 1: the Brown family for how many years have they owned
Speaker 1: this branch of like forty years? Since they're inception. They
Speaker 1: that's what they do. Um, who's the quarterback? Riley was
Speaker 1: another guy I had to look up? Who the hell
Speaker 1: is e Baily? There you go. It shows how much
Speaker 1: I know, uh, you know, I'll tell you what. I
Speaker 1: feel sorry for Andy Galton. I think there's a kid
Speaker 1: that probably could have been good with the right coaching,
Speaker 1: spent his whole career with bad coaching and never quite
Speaker 1: not that he would have been at all pro, but
Speaker 1: he probably could have been a lot better than than
Speaker 1: he has been in his career. Anyway, all that being said,
Speaker 1: you know, I'm an open ten. I think the public
Speaker 1: probably comes in on Baltimore. But I gotta tell you,
Speaker 1: I like Cincinnati. I think they I think Baltimore is
Speaker 1: probably uh, you know, filling their oats a little bit
Speaker 1: after that women in New England. And I don't see
Speaker 1: him being sky high for this game. And I've been
Speaker 1: Cincinnati going to cover this one. You know, I'm well,
Speaker 1: they win, I doubt it, but plus ten, I think
Speaker 1: that's the right side. I'll just ask this as we
Speaker 1: go to break. If Baltimore's ten at Cincinnati, how is
Speaker 1: Kansas City only three and a half at Tennessee? Will
Speaker 1: ponder that we'll come back week ten guessing. Support for
Speaker 1: today's show has always comes from book Maker dot eu.
Speaker 1: Now you know, and all these years of doing the podcast,
Speaker 1: I have never shielled for random sponsors, but I feel
Speaker 1: strongly about Bookmaker dot eu and I hope that that
Speaker 1: gets across They are the place where the lines origidate.
Speaker 1: That's been their motto through their thirty plus years as
Speaker 1: an industry leader, because chances are the sports book at
Speaker 1: which you are playing follows their line. But here's the deal.
Speaker 1: Besides being the first to post odds, they take the
Speaker 1: highest limits and they pride themselves on never having kicked
Speaker 1: out a winning player. But that last part in particular
Speaker 1: is huge in this modern global landscape of bookmakers. Huge
Speaker 1: and right now, if you visit bookmaker dot eu slash
Speaker 1: skill that's Bookmaker dot eu slash g I l L,
Speaker 1: you can join and claim and exclusive welcome bonus of
Speaker 1: up to three hundred dollars. That's Bookmaker dot eu slash gill.
Speaker 1: To join and claim you're welcome onus of up to
Speaker 1: three dollars. You will thank me later. It is the
Speaker 1: only bedding experience I need. Bookmaker got eu slash gill.
Speaker 1: It's a numbers game with your host Kill Alexander want
Speaker 1: Old un believe in analytics. It is guessing lines week
Speaker 1: ten on the numbers game right here at Visa Vegas
Speaker 1: Stats and Information Network series Sex of Jail two four
Speaker 1: Visa dot com. The Visa app Bobo Sling game plus
Speaker 1: on down the line. Jacob is in for Jeff this morning.
Speaker 1: Where's Jeff? By the way, Jacob, he was on Green
Speaker 1: Zone yesterday, so they gave him morning. Also, you can
Speaker 1: prep for market Watch tonight. Oh he can't. He can't
Speaker 1: do the show because he did the show yesterday and
Speaker 1: it's gonna do his show. By the way, Jeff has
Speaker 1: a show Monday through Friday here called called Marco Watch
Speaker 1: four pm Pacific, seven pm Easter Monday through Friday. I'm
Speaker 1: just messing with Jeffrey. Okay, so he'll be back tomorrow. Jacob,
Speaker 1: you're doing a fine job. By the way, he he
Speaker 1: appreciate you. It was nice having you last time too,
Speaker 1: on a Friday. We got to actually interact. We gotta
Speaker 1: get today. It's a little different though, So I apologies.
Speaker 1: I'm among giants today. I totally understand. Well, Chriss easy
Speaker 1: for sure. We get tweets. By the way, I'm beating
Speaker 1: the book. Let me just go through some of these. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is bad, Pete Moss did did Chris just tip
Speaker 1: his hand about a follow up book to his Amazon bestseller?
Speaker 1: Then one day on Visa Lives a numbers game with
Speaker 1: Gil might be a collaboration with Jimmy Vicaro. Nonetheless, we
Speaker 1: need this historical stories documented. People speculating Chrissie, We'll bringing
Speaker 1: Chris Andrews. People are speculating who you're doing this with.
Speaker 1: Uh Nicholas Griggs, you tied your guessing lines record today.
Speaker 1: What he means is for the furthest off guest, I
Speaker 1: don't know. Are we giving me Kansas City? Are we
Speaker 1: giving me a mulligan on the Kansas City and my
Speaker 1: shifting it to minus seven and a half. We're going
Speaker 1: with my first guest minus ten? What's the ruling? Jacob
Speaker 1: will leave it to you. I think we go with
Speaker 1: the outrage and go with a ten. Let's go with
Speaker 1: the right. So I tied my record, You're right minus ten.
Speaker 1: Uh the Bears seven eight eight seven eighth three two.
Speaker 1: I love when people have to tweet Twitter handles like that.
Speaker 1: I'm thinking the left tackle hit his elbow. Oh that's
Speaker 1: what the jamis Winston FuMO, Okay, maybe it did. Goldie
Speaker 1: don l Dono. NFL lines are good all, but Gil,
Speaker 1: can you get onto the serious stuff? And there's a
Speaker 1: picture of Super Bowl fifty four halftime show. What will
Speaker 1: be the first song played from j Low or Shakira.
Speaker 1: So I gotta get on that. I gotta do my research,
Speaker 1: all right, give me some time. I gotta do all
Speaker 1: that stuff. Let's bring in Chris Andrews once again, the
Speaker 1: South Point Hotel Casino sports book director who was here
Speaker 1: to guess some lines. We have more early games, Chris,
Speaker 1: any more of those to get to? Uh, well, we're
Speaker 1: gonna go one game got moved to the absent and
Speaker 1: then we've got an early game after that. Is that
Speaker 1: Goldie Dawn? Is that my buddy from Australia? Oh I
Speaker 1: didn't know. I didn't know. You know who Goldie Non was?
Speaker 1: Is the first I've ever gotten? Yeah? Yeah, okay, yeah yeah.
Speaker 1: I actually got to meet him in person after being
Speaker 1: Twitter friends with him for a long time. Great, great guy,
Speaker 1: great guy. Yeah, he's he wants me to start handycapping
Speaker 1: j Low and Shakira. So I'm all over it. That
Speaker 1: would like him? Yeah, I'm all about it. Okay. Next up,
Speaker 1: we've got Carolina at Green Bay. Carolina at Green Bay,
Speaker 1: Carolina again wins their game yesterday. Uh, Carolina beats the
Speaker 1: Tennessee Titans thirty to twenty. They do so is three
Speaker 1: and a half point favorites and Green Bay losing, as
Speaker 1: we mentioned, the Chargers twenty to eleven in sort of
Speaker 1: shocking fashion, like we don't expect that kind of performance
Speaker 1: for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. First, the Panthers, Uh,
Speaker 1: let me get the Alan correct, because there's Josh and
Speaker 1: there's brand and this is Kyle Allen seventeen of thirty
Speaker 1: two for two thirty two, two touchdowns, three picks, one
Speaker 1: time sacked. Uh. There, five and one are the Panthers
Speaker 1: with Kyle Allen as Carolina starting quarterback. Uh, this is
Speaker 1: how the conversation is going with Cam Newton. Hey, Cam,
Speaker 1: you're still hurt. No, actually, my foot is doing a
Speaker 1: little better. Your your foot still hurt, Cam, Why don't
Speaker 1: you sit out a little while longer? So Cam's not
Speaker 1: I don't know if we'll ever see Cam again because
Speaker 1: they are off the hook. Are the Panthers after this year?
Speaker 1: They have no obligations to Cam Newton after this season
Speaker 1: is over. So Kyle Allen five and one is Carolina
Speaker 1: starting quarterback. He remains the Panthers starting quarterback. And as
Speaker 1: you mentioned earlier, Christian McCaffrey another week, another filling up
Speaker 1: of the box score, twenty four carries for one d
Speaker 1: forty six yards, two touchdowns, three catches for twenty in
Speaker 1: a touchdown, one hundred sixty six yards from scrimmage, averaging
Speaker 1: six point one yards per carry halfway through the season.
Speaker 1: Now because the Panthers of five and three, the third
Speaker 1: year back leads the NFL with twelve hundred and forty
Speaker 1: four yards from scrimmage and thirteen touched in touchdowns. And
Speaker 1: as I like to say, Chrissie, his heisman is somewhere
Speaker 1: at Derrick Henry's house. That's the other thing that bothers
Speaker 1: me about Christian McCaffrey. Remember how bad the East Coast
Speaker 1: byas was then a couple of years back. Yeah, Oh
Speaker 1: my god. D J. Moore, d J. Moore, seven catches
Speaker 1: a hundred one yards riverboat Ron Ron Rivera went for
Speaker 1: it on fourth and two early in the game, a
Speaker 1: gamble that resulted in a seven yard touchdown from Allen
Speaker 1: to McCaffrey, and then the third quarter at seventeen to
Speaker 1: Evan when the game was really still in the balance.
Speaker 1: He uh he signed off on a fake punt fourth
Speaker 1: and fourth from his own thirty six that they converted.
Speaker 1: Swung the momentum to Carolina. And then there's the Packers.
Speaker 1: And let's continue with the talk about the Packers because
Speaker 1: we mentioned earlier the Chargers and the Packers earlier. But
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers twenty three or thirty five yesterday for one
Speaker 1: sixty one one touchdown note pics he was sacked three times.
Speaker 1: The one sixty one yards passing is his fifth lowest
Speaker 1: total UH in his whole career when he plays all
Speaker 1: four quarters, so fifth lowest total ever for him. And
Speaker 1: the sixty one yards he was at sixty one yards
Speaker 1: through three quarters. That's a career low sixty one yards
Speaker 1: from Aaron Rodgers, who had you know, look at he's
Speaker 1: always got that expression of nonchalance and sort of like
Speaker 1: that the hybrid of nonchalance and arrogance. But but because
Speaker 1: it's Aaron Rodgers, were okay with it because he always
Speaker 1: gets it done. Yesterday it was one of those days
Speaker 1: we're like, I don't know if there's a pulse here.
Speaker 1: And by the way, Jamal Williams, I should point this out. Uh,
Speaker 1: he had a ten yard a touchdown cash with six
Speaker 1: one remaining. Maybe you shouldn't celebrate when you're getting crushed.
Speaker 1: Maybe you shouldn't do that. That was a bad look
Speaker 1: four game winning street for the Packers. Snap, look, there's
Speaker 1: still seven and two. But Aaron Jones came in averaging
Speaker 1: a hundred thirty seven point eight scrimmage yards in his
Speaker 1: past four games, held to twenty nine yards thirty rushing
Speaker 1: minus one receiving, and Tavante Adams made his return seven
Speaker 1: catches forty one yards after missing the last four games
Speaker 1: because of turf toe. But they just got destroyed by
Speaker 1: a Chargers team who again, maybe you thought they could
Speaker 1: do it on offensive Chargers, but defensively just absolutely snimy
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, and that Packers defense is not very good.
Speaker 1: All that said, it is Kyle Allen against Aaron Rodgers.
Speaker 1: Hate to just sort of simplify it to quarterbacks. So
Speaker 1: that alone is gonna make this way more than three.
Speaker 1: I'll double it. I won't quite make it seven. I'll
Speaker 1: say Green Bay minus six. Yeah, it's funny you say it,
Speaker 1: because while I was making my numbers myself, I thought
Speaker 1: it was six and I was debating between six and
Speaker 1: six and a half. But it's come five and a half,
Speaker 1: even a couple of fives, and I like that better.
Speaker 1: Uh as I looked back. I think I've really been
Speaker 1: underestimating Carolina. I think there are a lot better than
Speaker 1: I have in my ratings, and you know, probably a
Speaker 1: lot of that is Alan at quarterback. You know, I
Speaker 1: just expected him to come to earth at some point.
Speaker 1: I'm not that he's been fantastic, but he's he's pretty good.
Speaker 1: And you know, when you've got McCaffrey back there with you,
Speaker 1: that's gonna make you pretty good too. The defense isn't bad. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, i'd like I like this team. I'm not
Speaker 1: sure I love him in this spot particularly, And I
Speaker 1: don't want to go overboard downgrading Green Day after one
Speaker 1: bad performance. It really was the first really bad all
Speaker 1: the second I guess of the year. But uh, you know,
Speaker 1: I don't want to downgrade now. But I think I've
Speaker 1: been underestimating Carolina. So I'm gonna open this game five
Speaker 1: and a half. I think that's better than the numbers
Speaker 1: that I was looking at originally, which were six or
Speaker 1: six and a half That in afternoon game, Chris, Uh,
Speaker 1: that got moved to the afternoon. Yes, that's all right,
Speaker 1: let's do the rest of the afternoon games. What else
Speaker 1: you got Miami at Indianapolis. Alright, Miami, break up the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: They get a win, Brian Flores first career win as
Speaker 1: the Dolphins head coach, as they beat the Jets. As
Speaker 1: we talked about earlier there one in seven Indianapolis five
Speaker 1: and three. Um, they lose yesterday to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now,
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you something. They lose twenty to twenty four.
Speaker 1: By the way, Steelers end up covering the one point
Speaker 1: spread on this. I had the Colts, Chris, and I
Speaker 1: am chased. I'm just livid about this game. One. Jacoby
Speaker 1: Brisette gets hurt. That's the first thing. You can't anticipate
Speaker 1: that hurt. When Quentin Nelson Uh stepped on his ankle
Speaker 1: then tweaked his lower leg when he was blocking Hayward.
Speaker 1: Uh picks. Basically, the Cults are in control of this game.
Speaker 1: They're matriculating, they're driving there in the red zone pick
Speaker 1: six to Minca Fitzpatrick. There was that there was a
Speaker 1: so you gotta assume there. You don't assume a touchdown
Speaker 1: for the Colts, but you gotta assume, let's say a
Speaker 1: field goal. So that's a ten point swing. Let's call it. UM.
Speaker 1: I guess you can't assume anything with Adam Vinitary, but
Speaker 1: let's just say that's a ten point swing right there.
Speaker 1: Then there was a horrific personal foul penalty at the
Speaker 1: end of the first half that was a phantom call.
Speaker 1: There was at least two questionable roughing penalties on the
Speaker 1: Colts um. There was a phantom d p I reviewed
Speaker 1: not overturned, which put Pittsburgh in game winning field goal range.
Speaker 1: There was a blocked p A T. There was a
Speaker 1: shank game winner because they still had a chance to win.
Speaker 1: Did the Colts at the end, which would have been
Speaker 1: a push for most people, but terrible hold where the
Speaker 1: Laces were facing Vinitary. Fifth miss this season for Vinitari
Speaker 1: in seventeen attempts, and now Indianapolis is out of first place.
Speaker 1: They trail Houston. Houston six and three. Indianapolis is five
Speaker 1: and three. They trailed by a half game. Will it
Speaker 1: be Jacoby Brissette moving forward or will it be Brian Hoyer.
Speaker 1: Brissette left in the second quarter with the left knee
Speaker 1: injury didn't return. Indianapolis came in having won five of six,
Speaker 1: but they won five of six by combined nineteen points.
Speaker 1: Each of their eight games this season has been decided
Speaker 1: by a touchdown or less. So Hoyer seventeen twenty six,
Speaker 1: three touchdowns, one pick, the horrific pick six and four
Speaker 1: times sacked in that game. And then there's the Dolphins
Speaker 1: that I don't know if we have to go too
Speaker 1: far into the Dolphins, but they get their first win,
Speaker 1: and congratulations to them. They came into the week outscored
Speaker 1: one thirty to twenty in the second half. Now it's
Speaker 1: one thirty five, by the way, they had yet to
Speaker 1: score a point in the third quarter. They got a
Speaker 1: field goal and Flora's gave his team Monday off, so
Speaker 1: they're off today after that, after that big victory. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so I guess it's Hoy. Are we assuming Hoyer here,
Speaker 1: because to me, there's there's a bit of a difference.
Speaker 1: I'll just say Indianapolis minus seven and a half because
Speaker 1: it's exactly what I made Pittsburgh in that game against Miami.
Speaker 1: If it were Brissette, I'd say it's a little more.
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna assume Hoyer, and I'm gonna assume minus
Speaker 1: seven and a half. Well, lawyer, I mean, Brissette is questionable,
Speaker 1: but almost everybody has the game up, so I'm not
Speaker 1: sure they see a big difference in the number. Again,
Speaker 1: I'm with you, I see a difference. Uh, But anyway,
Speaker 1: I see the game anywhere from ten and a half
Speaker 1: eleven and a half. I personally like the lower number.
Speaker 1: I'm a ten and a half on this one because,
Speaker 1: like you said that, the the Colts tend to play
Speaker 1: some very very close games, and uh, you know, Miami,
Speaker 1: you never know how a team like this they win
Speaker 1: one game at the party in all week. Now, they
Speaker 1: might be I don't know they might be, but I
Speaker 1: do like the lower number. I'm gonna open ten and
Speaker 1: a half on this line. By the way, I have
Speaker 1: to apologize our listeners had skipped a game. We've got
Speaker 1: Detroit at Chicago, which is a morning game. So my
Speaker 1: um moost humble apologies, most humble apologies accepted. By the way,
Speaker 1: Dolphins avoid what would have been their second oh and
Speaker 1: eight starting franchise history. Uh. That's their highest point total
Speaker 1: of the season in this game where where they scored
Speaker 1: Miami scoring twenty six win over the Jets, first win
Speaker 1: since the Miami miracle over New England last season. UM
Speaker 1: for the Dolphins, who led for the final thirty six
Speaker 1: minutes and fourteen seconds of this game. Entering yesterday, they
Speaker 1: had led for only a total of three minutes and
Speaker 1: forty six seconds and their first four home games combined.
Speaker 1: So um so you're saying it's yeah. By the way,
Speaker 1: we were all over Miami last week. We loved them
Speaker 1: against the Jets. Let's just point that out. And the
Speaker 1: early move was on Miami. But the way overcome by
Speaker 1: you know, wise guys and the public coming back on
Speaker 1: the Jets. That was a big, big game for us yesterday.
Speaker 1: But we I stuck with Miami. I had them in
Speaker 1: a lot of contests and all that other stuff and
Speaker 1: really felt that they would win that game. Well there
Speaker 1: were that was a real good result. There were two
Speaker 1: that we had on guessing lines last week, the Dolphins
Speaker 1: and the Niners, which at the time of guessing lines
Speaker 1: would have triggered bets. I had guessed ten on the Niners.
Speaker 1: It opened at eight, but by the time the game
Speaker 1: rolled around, it was already ten, and then the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: As you point out, it got all the way down
Speaker 1: to three. So I would have bet the Dolphins, but
Speaker 1: not at three. I didn't in the end and contest,
Speaker 1: so um one worked out because the Niners wouldn't have covered.
Speaker 1: They didn't cover the Dolphins did, so give it and
Speaker 1: take it away. So what was the other game? Chicago?
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, Chicago. Detroit at Chicago. Alright, Detroit at Chicago.
Speaker 1: So Detroit we talked about. They lose to the Raiders.
Speaker 1: I don't know what that last play was from. Matthew
Speaker 1: Stafford tried to tie the game up, but uh, it
Speaker 1: was not to beat Karl Joseph with a stop and
Speaker 1: Detroit loses by a touchdown to the Raiders. Twenty four
Speaker 1: Matthew Stafford forty one for four hundred six yards, three
Speaker 1: touchdowns and a pick. He was sacked twice. Golla Day
Speaker 1: remains as big as target four for one thirty two
Speaker 1: and a touchdown, although Marvin Jones eight catches for one
Speaker 1: six and a touchdown. Mckissic was a big part of
Speaker 1: their offense yesterday. Uh four for thirty two on the ground,
Speaker 1: three for forty through the air and touchdown. But they
Speaker 1: us for the fourth time in five games. The Lions
Speaker 1: are just so frustrating. Um, did you know that this
Speaker 1: has nothing to do with betting? Do you know Matthew
Speaker 1: Stafford is now top twenty for most touchdown passes ever
Speaker 1: in the history of the National Football League. Uh, that
Speaker 1: was surprising to me. Also passed Drew Brees for the
Speaker 1: third most yards passing in his first eleven seasons with
Speaker 1: overt now, but either way, Detroit is Detroit. Their three
Speaker 1: four and one. You never know what you're getting with
Speaker 1: them from week to week. They're capable of winning every game,
Speaker 1: and they're capable of losing every game. It just seems
Speaker 1: that way. And then there's the Bears, and maybe this
Speaker 1: is really the focus of this game. Mitch Robinsky yesterday,
Speaker 1: Mitchell Drobiskie is Michael Lombardi likes to call on Michael Lombardi.
Speaker 1: M v P Mitch, he says, mockingly derisively, Mitchell Drobiski yesterday. Now,
Speaker 1: this is what it says in the box scores. This
Speaker 1: is when the game's over. Ten of twenty one for one,
Speaker 1: no touchdowns, no picks. He was sacked three times. Fourth
Speaker 1: straight loss for the Bears. The Bears went three and
Speaker 1: out on their first five possessions they gained. Here's there's
Speaker 1: a snapshot here I have on my phone of the
Speaker 1: box score with two minutes left in the first half,
Speaker 1: with two minutes left. In the first half, they had
Speaker 1: minus ten yards total offense, three and out on their
Speaker 1: first five possessions, minus ten yards of offense. The halftime
Speaker 1: box score UM, which I have right next to it,
Speaker 1: they have a grand total of nine yards total yards
Speaker 1: in the first half. They had no first downs at
Speaker 1: the two minute warning. They had one first down by
Speaker 1: halftime UM. But here they were in the game. Nonetheless,
Speaker 1: with those nine first half yards, they trailed nineteen to nothing.
Speaker 1: They got within nineteen to fourteen. They could have won
Speaker 1: this game, but there were only two of ten on
Speaker 1: third downs. They were out first down. If you will
Speaker 1: buy the Eagles in their nineteen and fourteen loss, it
Speaker 1: was gonna be twenty two to fourteen loss. Ultimately twenty
Speaker 1: six to ten. They were out gained three seventy three
Speaker 1: to one sixty four. They had a hundred two passing
Speaker 1: yards total when you factor in sacks to sixty two
Speaker 1: on the ground. And they just allowed the main thing
Speaker 1: of this game, by the way, the Eagles had the
Speaker 1: ball for more than forty minutes, the Bears for for
Speaker 1: less than twenty. Philly got up. They got the ball
Speaker 1: up nineteen to fourteen with eight forty left in this game,
Speaker 1: and they proceed to go on a sixteen play sixty
Speaker 1: nine yard drive cat by Jake Elliott's thirty eight yard
Speaker 1: field goal with twenty five seconds left. Carson Wentz kept
Speaker 1: converting third downs four for four on third downs before
Speaker 1: they had to kick the field wealth the end, so
Speaker 1: there were four for five total. But basically they held
Speaker 1: the ball for eight fourteen of the remaining eight forty
Speaker 1: and that was the situation the Bears defense, the Bears
Speaker 1: vaunted defense, could not get the Eagles off the field.
Speaker 1: So as bad as Drabinsky was, there's blame to go around.
Speaker 1: I'll say Chicago minus one and a half just because
Speaker 1: I'm splitting the difference between a pick him in the three. Well,
Speaker 1: it's two and a half and three, uh, couple of
Speaker 1: three y won three flat, couple of threes with juice
Speaker 1: the dog, but mostly two and a half. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open to an f. By the way, my favorite stat
Speaker 1: that I think yesterday, and there's a bunch of funny ones.
Speaker 1: Scott Kasmar, who's a pretty good football writer, put this up.
Speaker 1: At some point during the first half, Chicago has more
Speaker 1: first downs than they do yards. Their first downs at
Speaker 1: that point were zero their total yards were minus two
Speaker 1: and zero. They had more first downs than yarded was
Speaker 1: minus too. I thought that was hilarious and a great
Speaker 1: way to look at that. Anyway, I'm gonna go with
Speaker 1: two and a half and then you know, they'll probably
Speaker 1: lay it to me, and you know, God bless them,
Speaker 1: they could have it. I you know, I think Detroit
Speaker 1: they are frustrating Gil and there's no question about they're
Speaker 1: extremely frustrating, but they do have number one. They have Stafford,
Speaker 1: and I think they have some heart on that team
Speaker 1: in Chicago. You know, do you start losing heart? I
Speaker 1: think you do. You know, when your quarterback just cannot
Speaker 1: produce no matter what, you know. I think it's one
Speaker 1: of those things that, yeah, you just you know, it
Speaker 1: takes takes the wind out of your sales, whether you're
Speaker 1: offensive or be on the offensive side or the defensive side.
Speaker 1: So I kind of like the Troy and like I say,
Speaker 1: you know, you take the two and a half's and
Speaker 1: you laid the three and alps. I know it's counterintuitive,
Speaker 1: but I think over the long, long haul, that's probably
Speaker 1: the best strategy. Those are two and a half times
Speaker 1: out there, bet and I think I'll played the Troy.
Speaker 1: I was gonna say, if it's three, I would grab Detroit. Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: because there's no actually one three flat, I would take
Speaker 1: that just because I don't know, Yeah, I don't. I
Speaker 1: don't know the justification for the Bears being three point
Speaker 1: favorites against the Troy Yeah, one more, one more before
Speaker 1: the prime time Los Angeles at the Steelers as Rams
Speaker 1: at the Steelers. All right, So this is the team,
Speaker 1: the Steelers that I have a markedly different opinion from
Speaker 1: the market, as we've discovered last two weeks, both against
Speaker 1: the Dolphins and this past week against the Colts, my
Speaker 1: opinion being much less of your Pittsburgh Steelers. But give
Speaker 1: it to the Steelers. They were one and four and
Speaker 1: now they're four and four. They're actually alive. Mason Rudolph
Speaker 1: yesterday and the win against the Colts thirty five for
Speaker 1: one touchdown, one pick, He was sacked once. Jaln Samuel's
Speaker 1: thirteen catches or seventy three. Mike Tomlin quote, it's good
Speaker 1: to be sitting at four and four. I never thought
Speaker 1: you'd hear Mike Tomlins say that about a four and
Speaker 1: four record, but that's the case. Steelers held on despite
Speaker 1: mustering just two hundred seventy three total yards, but just
Speaker 1: enough defense forced three turnovers. I mentioned that pick six.
Speaker 1: They got five sacks. Colts came in having allowed eleven
Speaker 1: all year. Steelers sacked him five times. But that Minka
Speaker 1: Fitzpatrick trade. That's his fourth pick of the season, third
Speaker 1: and six days. Remember he had two on Monday night.
Speaker 1: Ninety six yards sprint on the pick six to the
Speaker 1: end zone tied the game when it appeared the Colts
Speaker 1: were ready to go up by double digits. That was
Speaker 1: everything in that game. Um, I'm gonna say the rams
Speaker 1: my in this six rams coming off a by Once again,
Speaker 1: you're anti Steeler bias is showing itself. I see the
Speaker 1: game anywhere from three to four. Uh. Three of the
Speaker 1: low water market. By the way, the guy that opened
Speaker 1: the three happens to be a Pittsburgh so I want
Speaker 1: to say it was. But I'm open three and a half. Uh.
Speaker 1: I would definitely look to take the ford in this game.
Speaker 1: I think this game, I personally think three is okay.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna keep my eye on the market here, but
Speaker 1: it is three and happen four mostly four, But I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open three and a half. But I want to
Speaker 1: tell you. And I think I mentioned this before, but
Speaker 1: I will reiterate it. The maink of Fitzpatrick trade was
Speaker 1: more than just uh, you know, value. I think it
Speaker 1: was a message to the to the players, to the
Speaker 1: to the whole Steeler organization, to the fans that we
Speaker 1: are not laying over to die. We are trying to
Speaker 1: put a contender on the field every single year. We're
Speaker 1: not tanking. We are gonna try to get in the playoffs.
Speaker 1: And then once we get in the playoffs, god knows
Speaker 1: what can happen. And that's think that's what that trade
Speaker 1: was all about. And I said it at the time.
Speaker 1: We get debate value and all that other stuff. I know,
Speaker 1: a first round draft choices, you know, highly valued, and
Speaker 1: it should be. But I think that was the message
Speaker 1: of the trade. And you know what I mean, the
Speaker 1: kids really played exceptionally well. And uh, I was glad
Speaker 1: we made it at the time, and I'm even more
Speaker 1: glad about it now as a Steeler fan. And uh,
Speaker 1: you know you're gonna be on the rams. I like
Speaker 1: the Steelers in this one. Okay, we'll come back, we'll
Speaker 1: do the prime time games, we'll get the story time.
Speaker 1: It's all brought to you by the bet MGMB here
Speaker 1: on the Numbers game at Visa, where first time players
Speaker 1: can make the first bet completely risk free, up to
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars just by using the bonus code Visa
Speaker 1: in five hundred. It's the same folks that brought you
Speaker 1: board Gotta in Atlantic City with you all football season
Speaker 1: long with easy deposit with drall methods and a variety
Speaker 1: of betting options. Again, it's Visa in five v s
Speaker 1: I N five hundred to place your first bet MGM
Speaker 1: wager risk free. Your for your five hundred dollar risk
Speaker 1: free bet at sign up. Let's be clear about that.
Speaker 1: You can sign up anywhere, but you must be in
Speaker 1: the state of New Jersey to place a bet. Bet MGM.
Speaker 1: It's how you play the game. Download the app today.
Speaker 1: Gotta be twenty one year older, New Jersey only. Bet
Speaker 1: MGM VISA five hundred the bonus code you need to
Speaker 1: make your first bet up to five hundred dollars. Coming
Speaker 1: back Primetime games and then story time with Chris Andrews
Speaker 1: on a Numbers game right here at Visa Guessing Lines.
Speaker 1: Welcome back to a Numbers game with Jill, Alexander Carlos, Beltron,
Speaker 1: your new manager of the New York Mets. How about that?
Speaker 1: We see that coming. I don't know that I did.
Speaker 1: Maybe I missed the memo on that. I wonder how
Speaker 1: Parlay feels about that lifelong Mets fan. We'll talk about
Speaker 1: that on another day when we're not guessing lines in
Speaker 1: the NFL. Let's do the two primetime games, Christie. Let's
Speaker 1: go to Sunday night, boy. A couple are really good ones.
Speaker 1: Minnesota at Dallas, and the Thursday night game isn't terrible either.
Speaker 1: Huh the chart rated. We really got some great primetime
Speaker 1: games this week. Yeah, Minnesota at Dallas. Minnesota, as we mentioned,
Speaker 1: lose to the Chiefs. Chiefs didn't have any of those players,
Speaker 1: not only not Mahomes, they didn't have Eric Fisher, they
Speaker 1: didn't have Laurent Duvernet Tardif on the offensive line, didn't
Speaker 1: have Kendall Fuller in the secondary, of Frank Clark and
Speaker 1: Alex oka for on the defensive line, and yet Minnesota
Speaker 1: still couldn't get it done. Kirk Cousins bully likes to
Speaker 1: beat up on the bad teams, not so much against
Speaker 1: the team nineteen thirty two, twenty three touchdowns Note picks
Speaker 1: and one. Uh, he was sacked once. Minnesota six and three.
Speaker 1: Dallas hasn't played yet. They played the Giants tonight, their
Speaker 1: seven point road favorites, So without that, I'll just say
Speaker 1: Dallas as a placeholder should be minus three here. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree with you. I see some two and a half,
Speaker 1: a little bit of three, a couple of three flats,
Speaker 1: a couple of three with juice on the dog. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna open three. I think that's a decent place to
Speaker 1: open it. You know, let's see what happens tonight. But
Speaker 1: I do agree with your sentiments Minnesota. You know, number
Speaker 1: one on the whole is less than the some of
Speaker 1: the parts, and they do tend to beat up on
Speaker 1: the weaker teams. Dalla is certainly not a week their team,
Speaker 1: but you know they have their issues too against their
Speaker 1: good teams. So I think it's a very interesting game
Speaker 1: with probably a lot of playoff implications. But I'm gonna
Speaker 1: use street is uh. Like I said, I just don't
Speaker 1: know what else to make it at this point, and
Speaker 1: I think it's a decent place to start. Yep. I
Speaker 1: think that's it, uh, And then I think I know
Speaker 1: what's coming Monday night. What's Monday, Seattle at San Francisco.
Speaker 1: There it is the seven and two Seahawks against the
Speaker 1: only remaining undefeated in the NFL, the San Francisco forty
Speaker 1: nine is eight no first meeting between these two teams
Speaker 1: this year. Seattle, as we mentioned, beat the Bucks in overtime.
Speaker 1: They were trailing to anyone to seven. They end up
Speaker 1: winning in o T after leading a great drive in
Speaker 1: the final seconds of regulation, only to see Jason Myers
Speaker 1: potential forty yard game winner miss sailing wide. Russell will
Speaker 1: Wilson finishing off one of the finest games of his
Speaker 1: already stellar career ten yard touchdown past Jacob Hollister on
Speaker 1: the opening drive of overtime. Seattle got the ball in
Speaker 1: o T never relinquished it forty to thirty four. They
Speaker 1: beat the Buccaneers and Buccaneers backers just miserable at the
Speaker 1: push at best there, although as you said in contest,
Speaker 1: you got You've got the win there. Wilson in overtime
Speaker 1: five of eight for seventy yards, Wilson in the fourth
Speaker 1: quarter in overtime eleven of twenty for one seventy seven.
Speaker 1: Wilson for the game twenty ninety three for three seventy eight,
Speaker 1: five touchdowns, no picks, third career game with five touchdowns,
Speaker 1: tying his career high for the season, twenty two touchdowns
Speaker 1: Chrissy twenty two touchdowns, one interception, first quarterback in the
Speaker 1: Super Bowl. Eer to post those numbers through a team's
Speaker 1: first nine games, his passer rating this is a rated
Speaker 1: out of one fifty eight point three. His passer rating
Speaker 1: has been one oh two or above an eight of
Speaker 1: nine games. As I mentioned, they trailed seven midway through
Speaker 1: the second a win they absolutely needed because their schedule,
Speaker 1: as we talked about, the Browns are really easy. The
Speaker 1: rest of the way, just to as as a point
Speaker 1: of contrast, well Seattle, the rest of the way is brutality.
Speaker 1: Uh no games, or I should say, final seven games,
Speaker 1: with six of the seven against teams currently above five hundred.
Speaker 1: And in fact, if we go through those games real quick,
Speaker 1: they are as follows San Francisco at San Francisco. Here,
Speaker 1: so at San Francisco Monday night, by then at Philly
Speaker 1: home Minnesota at the Rams at Carolina, then the one
Speaker 1: easy one home against Cardinals, and then closing the year
Speaker 1: home against the Niners. My goodness, So here they are
Speaker 1: taking on the Niners. As we mentioned, Niners on extra rest.
Speaker 1: They beat the Cardinals last Thursday night, though they did
Speaker 1: not cover eleven of seventeen for the Niners that night.
Speaker 1: On third Day, Owns got the Cliff Kingsbury gift with
Speaker 1: the time out at the end of the first half,
Speaker 1: so a lot went their way. I'll say Niners minus six,
Speaker 1: Niners minus six. Yeah, it's anywhere from five and a
Speaker 1: half to six and a half. You know, six definitely
Speaker 1: the predominant number. I like the lower number here. I'm
Speaker 1: opening five and a half. I tell it. You know,
Speaker 1: have by something the praises of Russell Wilson enough. This
Speaker 1: kid is so good. I mean, he is just a
Speaker 1: winner now I say that. But San Francisco, I think
Speaker 1: has been fantastic this year. Somebody pointed it out. I
Speaker 1: can't remember it was on ESPN or on to somebody
Speaker 1: said it, and they're right. San Francisco can beat you
Speaker 1: in a variety of ways, throwing the ball, running the ball, defensively.
Speaker 1: You know, that is a very very good team, very
Speaker 1: well coached, pretty good personnel. Uh you know, and a
Speaker 1: couple of years ago this was just an atrocious franchise.
Speaker 1: They've turned it around rather quickly, and I think it's
Speaker 1: a very good team. I don't mean to to estimate
Speaker 1: San Francisco, but you know, Josh Gordon maybe in the
Speaker 1: lineup for Seattle. That gives Russell Wilson one more big
Speaker 1: weapon if if he's right, and that's a huge question mark.
Speaker 1: But Russell Wilson this give is this dynamite. I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't know what else I could say about him.
Speaker 1: He's fantastic and I see him keeping this game very
Speaker 1: very close. I'm gonna open five and a half. They
Speaker 1: might lay it to him, they might not. I don't know,
Speaker 1: but I like five and a half better than the six.
Speaker 1: Tyler Lockett thirteen catches, one two touchdowns, DK metcalf six
Speaker 1: or one twenty three. He had a big fifty three
Speaker 1: yard catch touchdown late in the fourth, big key twenty
Speaker 1: nine yard or an ot um. Everything you say is right,
Speaker 1: you know, And you know you mentioned that thing about
Speaker 1: the Niners, that they were sort of like just a franchise,
Speaker 1: a wayward franchise. So recently there was a moment that
Speaker 1: where people were comparing Jed York to Daniel Snyder. There
Speaker 1: was a moment there and he did three things correctly
Speaker 1: that Daniel Snyder can't ever seem to get right. One
Speaker 1: is he hired a great coach who, by the way,
Speaker 1: happened to be right there at Redskin Park, Kyle Shanahan. Yes,
Speaker 1: let's point that out too. He got a great he
Speaker 1: got he got a call him great, but he got
Speaker 1: a really really good quarterback who could be great, we
Speaker 1: don't know yet, in Jimmy Garoppolo. And the third thing
Speaker 1: he did is he stood the hell out of the
Speaker 1: way Chris, and so we hired Lynch and little manager.
Speaker 1: Yeah that's right. Um, so that's the difference. And look
Speaker 1: there eight no, and the Redskins are one one in eight.
Speaker 1: So sometimes a couple of years back, when the Niners
Speaker 1: were pretty bad and then everybody was singing the praises
Speaker 1: of the Raiders, he said, who do you make the
Speaker 1: favorite to make the Super Bowl? First? You know, the Raiders,
Speaker 1: And what do you make the price? And I think
Speaker 1: I made the writers like a dollar or twenty or
Speaker 1: something like that. And he started laughing because I agree
Speaker 1: with you. But people were thinking they're like four to
Speaker 1: one over the Niners, and I would not be so
Speaker 1: crazy about the Raiders, right, now, I think the Niners,
Speaker 1: and that's after they hired Lynch, and I think after
Speaker 1: they might have been right when they hired Shanahan, you know,
Speaker 1: it wouldn't be so crazy. But going against the forty Niners,
Speaker 1: I think it's a franchise on the uprise. Yeah, all right,
Speaker 1: well we'll review all these. We'll see what we like
Speaker 1: best coming up on the show. But in between now
Speaker 1: and then, story time, a classic story time from Chris Andrews.
Speaker 1: Chrissie standing by with that. Next on a numbers game
Speaker 1: right here at Visa. Welcome back to a numbers game
Speaker 1: with Jill Alexander. It's a treat we promised you we
Speaker 1: do this every once in a while. This year it's
Speaker 1: a story time classic. We started this way. Hey everybody,
Speaker 1: it's story time. Hi everyone, it's story time or something
Speaker 1: like that. But their voice didn't crackt like mind, did
Speaker 1: Chrissy have at it? What's the story? Okay? Well, in
Speaker 1: honor of the breeders, cuff I got a great horse
Speaker 1: racing story. Horse racing is all about a heartbreak, and
Speaker 1: this is a great heartbreaker right here. This is four
Speaker 1: and I'll get to it a little later. While I
Speaker 1: remember the exact year. I'm in Reno. I had had
Speaker 1: this one friend of mine, older guy who was a
Speaker 1: horse owner, a horse breeder primarily at the Northern California tracks,
Speaker 1: taught me a really a lot about horse racing in general,
Speaker 1: and that we became pretty good friends too. I'm in Reno.
Speaker 1: He calls me up one day says, hey, can you
Speaker 1: make it down to Bay Meadows? Uh, tomorrow? I think
Speaker 1: we got something going. And as soon as he said that,
Speaker 1: I said, yeah I could be there. Sure. I didn't
Speaker 1: even know what it was yet, you know, but yeah,
Speaker 1: sure I could be there. So you know, yeah, what
Speaker 1: do we got going? He says, well, we gotta pick
Speaker 1: six carry over half a million dollars and like the
Speaker 1: little backstory, pick six as were something rather new, and
Speaker 1: so we gotta pick six carry over of half a
Speaker 1: million dollars in five of the six races. The kids
Speaker 1: and I knew who the kids were. They were like
Speaker 1: the assistant trainers for one of the leading trainers in
Speaker 1: Northern California. The kids told me that a five of
Speaker 1: the six races, the odds on favorites cannot win the races.
Speaker 1: And that's one thing I love, you know, who can
Speaker 1: win the race, that's nice. If you know who cannot
Speaker 1: win the race, that's even better. And if you know
Speaker 1: it's a favorite that can't win the race, well that's
Speaker 1: pure gold. You know what you do? You know what.
Speaker 1: I already love about the story. But the best part
Speaker 1: is when you go, I'm in, what are we doing?
Speaker 1: You have no idea? When he believe I knew this
Speaker 1: guy for a couple of years and I don't know him.
Speaker 1: You know, he made his living off horses. You're betting
Speaker 1: them breathing or whatever. He knew the horse, So yeah,
Speaker 1: right away. So now I have my wife, my infant son,
Speaker 1: who was born in June, so there's only like two
Speaker 1: months or three months old. Uh So, I said, you know, now,
Speaker 1: unfortunately her mother lived in Fremont, California, so just south
Speaker 1: of the Bay. Uh So, I said, okay, we're going
Speaker 1: to Baby Meadows. Pack up. We're going in the morning,
Speaker 1: so we have to leave early. I gotta be at
Speaker 1: this one restaurant in uh San Mateo, kind of a
Speaker 1: wise guy restaurant that I've been to a couple of
Speaker 1: times before. Then he says, this is where we're gonna meet,
Speaker 1: and we're gonna you know, talk about the pick six.
Speaker 1: So we go there that the two kids are there,
Speaker 1: and we go through and I'm like Jesus, and I mean,
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the forum. These horses are gonna be
Speaker 1: like eight to five. You know. They said yeah, because
Speaker 1: I'm telling you they cannot win. They can't win. They're
Speaker 1: all crippled up. You know, they've been shooting them up
Speaker 1: with uh, you know, whatever the drug is to make
Speaker 1: them look good. They're they're hoping every one of these
Speaker 1: horses gets cleaned. And said, okay, so we look, we
Speaker 1: put together a ticket. My father in law also have
Speaker 1: to be a big horse player. So my wife leaves, uh,
Speaker 1: takes the kid and goes with her mother, and my
Speaker 1: father in law comes with us. So we go, we're going,
Speaker 1: we're going to put together a ticket. So we're all
Speaker 1: pretty good handicappers. And Fred I'll call this guy that's
Speaker 1: not as the only name. Try to have a couple
Speaker 1: other guys with him too, who I didn't know. All
Speaker 1: pretty good handicappers. So we look at the races. We
Speaker 1: put together a ten thousand dollar tickets. I take a
Speaker 1: thousand of it, so I take ten You gotta remember
Speaker 1: how twenty eight years old a thousand dollars to me
Speaker 1: at that time is an absolute fortune. But I do
Speaker 1: know what this guy he is. And then I'm sitting
Speaker 1: there and thinking, yeah, you know, I'll throw a thousand
Speaker 1: in there. And I had some horse winnings that I
Speaker 1: had to kind of put aside, so um, so, yeah, okay,
Speaker 1: I'm in for a dime, you know. So like I said,
Speaker 1: now we go to the track, put in our ticket,
Speaker 1: ten thousand dollars pick six tickets, and the first race
Speaker 1: comes up. It's like a thirty dollar horse. We got him,
Speaker 1: second race, twenty dollar horse. We got him third race.
Speaker 1: And I might be a little off on the on
Speaker 1: the order twenty dollar horse, We've got another thirty dollar horse.
Speaker 1: We got another twenty dollar horse. We got every horse
Speaker 1: paid well into double busits. We had all five. Now
Speaker 1: this is back in the day. They didn't announce like
Speaker 1: the will pays, or like how many tickets are allot
Speaker 1: and all that other stuff, and even you know, the
Speaker 1: strategy in pick six betting was not fully developed at
Speaker 1: this time. We probably could have done it a little better,
Speaker 1: but we did what we did. So now this guy had,
Speaker 1: being a horse owner and breeder, he had a lot
Speaker 1: of connections at the track and they don't announce, you know,
Speaker 1: how many tickets or anything like that. But he calls
Speaker 1: up to the office and first of all, they didn't
Speaker 1: even tell you what the what the money was in
Speaker 1: the pool. He says, Okay, listen, the pool got bet
Speaker 1: up to seven hundred and fifty thousand. There's one picket alive.
Speaker 1: It's yeah, so seven hundred, so I'm looking at ten
Speaker 1: percent of it. Uh so. So Now again he's a
Speaker 1: horse owner, breeder, he has paddock privileged. Now, when I
Speaker 1: said five of the six races the favorite can't win,
Speaker 1: the kids told us there's one favorite that will win,
Speaker 1: and that's the last race on the card, seven or
Speaker 1: five favorite. Now, girl, I know you don't follow the
Speaker 1: horses a lot like the other guys that were probably
Speaker 1: listening right now. There's a race you almost never saw
Speaker 1: at that time. And I would venture to say, in
Speaker 1: North America, you have not seen this racing years seventy claimers,
Speaker 1: so really cheap horses for in a mile and a
Speaker 1: quarter on the dirt. I mean it's almost unheard of,
Speaker 1: and it was almost unheard of back then and totally
Speaker 1: unheard of in this day and age. So a mile
Speaker 1: in a quarter in the the it. But they said, listen,
Speaker 1: there's only one horse in this race and he's gonna
Speaker 1: be seven or five, but he cannot be beat. So
Speaker 1: we single him in the last race. And we figured
Speaker 1: if we get the last race, we've got some maneuver ability.
Speaker 1: So one of our maneuvers was we we pitched in.
Speaker 1: We bought the jockey a nickel ticket to win five
Speaker 1: win on the on the on our horse, on our horse.
Speaker 1: And like I said, this guy had paddock privileges. He
Speaker 1: and I go down to the paddock. Now he doesn't
Speaker 1: want to be seen doing this, so he tells me, said,
Speaker 1: go hand the jock this ticket five who went on
Speaker 1: his horse. I got these guys, you know. At the
Speaker 1: time man looks just say, it's not like Lafitte, pink Eye,
Speaker 1: no shoemaker riding these horses, you know. So I forget
Speaker 1: his name. I wish I could remember the name of
Speaker 1: the job today, you know, whatever your name. And he
Speaker 1: looks at me. I said, here you go, and I
Speaker 1: give him the ticket and he looks at it and
Speaker 1: he like looks at me. I said, yeah, we need
Speaker 1: to to win this one, and he like sticks it
Speaker 1: in his belt or wherever he did, you know. So
Speaker 1: he's got the nickel pick at the wind. So if
Speaker 1: it wins and the horses seven o five, it's like
Speaker 1: Bucks ran. You know, that's a big score for these guys,
Speaker 1: you know. So we go back up to the box,
Speaker 1: say anything, tod He no, he just looked at me
Speaker 1: like kind of lauded, you know. He didn't say anything. No,
Speaker 1: he didn't, not a word he understood. And I just
Speaker 1: like I said, we need you to win this one.
Speaker 1: So I go back to the buck. Now by this time,
Speaker 1: my wife along with the baby because they let's you know,
Speaker 1: let little kids into the track, into the turf club
Speaker 1: and all that. So we're right at the finish line
Speaker 1: at the turf club. Like I said, my guy had
Speaker 1: pretty good connections. My wife's back there, got the baby,
Speaker 1: you know, my step my mother in law's back there too,
Speaker 1: you know there, so we're all rooting. They kind of
Speaker 1: know what we got going. So there we go. The
Speaker 1: gate opens up. Our jockey takes, of course, out to
Speaker 1: the front. I'd say it's the my own a quarter race.
Speaker 1: He goes, and I know you're probably on the fall
Speaker 1: at the times, you know, but he takes the first
Speaker 1: quarter in like twenty three and change. He does behalf
Speaker 1: and like forty six and something, and you know, and
Speaker 1: I like lean over to my body thread and I
Speaker 1: this is how I know it was nineteen eight four
Speaker 1: because Swale won the Derby and eighty four. That's where
Speaker 1: I got. I had a big bet on Swale in
Speaker 1: the future book, and that's how I know it was
Speaker 1: nineteen eighty four. I lean over till my say, he's
Speaker 1: running faster than Swale in the Derby. Swale is like
Speaker 1: a twenty million dollar horse, for sure. There's a Sevlaimer.
Speaker 1: He's going faster and swill And I look over and
Speaker 1: my friend who he has about half this ticket, so
Speaker 1: it's about three D seventy five thousand for him. He
Speaker 1: is white, you know, used whatever cliche you want to
Speaker 1: put in, white as a ghost, white as a sheet whatever.
Speaker 1: I mean, the blood has gone. I mean he knows
Speaker 1: at this point we ain't got the winner. You know,
Speaker 1: this this ticket, he's so excited. This horse is up
Speaker 1: by at least ten lengths, you know, I mean he's
Speaker 1: out and I mean I mean he's he's a wrong story.
Speaker 1: And like I'm just like sitting back. I'm not even
Speaker 1: root and I'm not even screen. I mean, here, I
Speaker 1: got seventy five dollars on the line. I'm not even
Speaker 1: rooting or screen. Not my wife, my ex wife, I
Speaker 1: should say, by the way, my ex wife. She said,
Speaker 1: come on, come on. She looks at me. She's like
Speaker 1: mad at me because I'm not excited about this something.
Speaker 1: And I am not going to get excited because I
Speaker 1: know we have the loser right now. We are not
Speaker 1: we are not going to win this. And she's mad
Speaker 1: at me. You're just being a you know, a party
Speaker 1: poop or not. I'm thinking, yeah, if you know my genealogy,
Speaker 1: both halves of it were rather a dour people, you know,
Speaker 1: so we're rather a dollar people. Yes, and they take
Speaker 1: a lesson in that. And I know we have to
Speaker 1: lose it out. We come around and I forget all
Speaker 1: the rest of the fractions, you know. But like now,
Speaker 1: I mean, the horse is really starting to slow down.
Speaker 1: You know, he's shortening stride. You can see he's breathing hard.
Speaker 1: But drop he's whipping him, you know, like crazy. Now.
Speaker 1: You know, like I said, you gotta remember, every other
Speaker 1: horse in the race is a total piece of crap. To.
Speaker 1: You know, like I said, SAMs, we get to the
Speaker 1: eighth poll, we're still ahead by about maybe three or
Speaker 1: four lengths. I'm like that. So now I start thinking
Speaker 1: maybe we got a shot. We get to the sixteen poll,
Speaker 1: he's up by about three. I'd say. Now I'm standing up.
Speaker 1: I can't resist that. I got to come on, come on,
Speaker 1: I'm screaming at the top of my line. Come on,
Speaker 1: my buddy still hasn't moved. Now, thank you, he's still.
Speaker 1: And here's one horse kind of emergence from the pack.
Speaker 1: Come on, come on, and don't you know, needless to say,
Speaker 1: the one horse emergence from the pack and nails us
Speaker 1: by like a head a shorthand, you know, like right
Speaker 1: at the wire like that where our boxes, like right
Speaker 1: on the wire, nails by. I had and I looked.
Speaker 1: I just snipped back. I look up to the stars,
Speaker 1: and you've gotta be kidding me. You've gotta be kidding me.
Speaker 1: And you know, like I looked at my buddy, I said,
Speaker 1: we should have never boughtom that ticket. No kidding, no kidding,
Speaker 1: we never should on that thing it, you know, needless
Speaker 1: to say. They among the horse owners and trainers, they
Speaker 1: called the jockeys pinheads. We never said that that that
Speaker 1: thicket is what he did. He killed it and he
Speaker 1: just ran his race. We don't win that by a mob.
Speaker 1: The fact that you got sent back into you know,
Speaker 1: we got stuck bad about the six tea pot. I
Speaker 1: couldn't resist that. I had to jump up and you
Speaker 1: know for last, you know, the race. I'm screaming my
Speaker 1: lungs out, and uh, you know it was not to
Speaker 1: be so like meanwhile, there's a huge carry over to
Speaker 1: the next day, seven hundred fifty thousand, and you know,
Speaker 1: we went for it again the next day. But it
Speaker 1: wasn't the same thing, you know, I mean, we had
Speaker 1: you know, favorites. One you know, we put together about
Speaker 1: I think I think I want to say, like about
Speaker 1: a two or three thousand dollar ticket something like that,
Speaker 1: and you know I only took a small piece of that,
Speaker 1: but that didn't matter. We didn't win anyway, And just
Speaker 1: one of those days that probably made a couple of
Speaker 1: bucks over the days, and you know, it was one
Speaker 1: of those things that you know, I probably did make
Speaker 1: a few dollars over the over the two days, but
Speaker 1: it's just you know, had a chance to make twenty
Speaker 1: eight years old, chance to make seventy seventy five thousand dollars,
Speaker 1: probably a little more in that with all the consolations
Speaker 1: and all that other stuff. And it's right there a
Speaker 1: matter of inches, a matter of inches really in honor
Speaker 1: of the Breeders Cup this past week at a classic story,
Speaker 1: which is it is in the book by the way
Speaker 1: that among so many others. Yeah, then one day from
Speaker 1: Chris Anders will come back. We'll review our picks for
Speaker 1: guessing lines. That story is awesome coming back right here
Speaker 1: on the numbers game in visa welcome back to a
Speaker 1: numbers game with Jill Alexander. We should have never given
Speaker 1: that pen had that money. There's a couple of things.
Speaker 1: There's a couple of things about that story. Chris and
Speaker 1: I love so much. One again at the beginning when
Speaker 1: you're like, I'm in what is it that we're doing? Uh?
Speaker 1: And then too at the end you go, have you
Speaker 1: met my family? Ours is a dour people. Ours is
Speaker 1: a dour people. All right, here's what I like. In
Speaker 1: week ten. I like the Chiefs because my number is
Speaker 1: just ridiculously off what it is. But if you're telling
Speaker 1: me it's my homes and the Chiefs that minus three
Speaker 1: and a half? Uh this week at where is that
Speaker 1: game at? At at Tennessee. Yeah, I'll take the Chiefs there.
Speaker 1: I also like Detroit if you're giving me three. I
Speaker 1: also like the Rams if it's only four. If the
Speaker 1: Rams are only four at Pittsburgh, you know my bias
Speaker 1: against the Steelers. I'm all about the Rams and I
Speaker 1: kind of like the Dolphins. Kind of like the Dolphins
Speaker 1: because every Colts game is closed. What do you think
Speaker 1: of here, Chris Well? First thing is run to the counter.
Speaker 1: As soon as we get off the show. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: open the Rams three and a half. Save yourself half
Speaker 1: a point? Uh, I kind of. I like the Bills
Speaker 1: plus the two. I know it's probably gonna be a
Speaker 1: public side, but I think the public is gonna be
Speaker 1: right on that one. I like the Falcons plus the points.
Speaker 1: I like the Bengals plus the points, and uh, my
Speaker 1: good friend, I'm gonna go against that. I like the
Speaker 1: Steelers in that game. So that's why I'm opening at
Speaker 1: three and a half, although there's plenty of fours round. Yeah. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and you're a Steeler. You grew up in Pittsburgh, so
Speaker 1: you're kind of locked into them. Um, well, yeah, I
Speaker 1: mean I try not to be biased. I really don't.
Speaker 1: I mean, I really do. I try not to be biased,
Speaker 1: but I think that that I think. I think right
Speaker 1: now they're playing some pretty good football and even if
Speaker 1: you look at all their losses, I mean, other than
Speaker 1: the New England game where they got watched, their losses
Speaker 1: are by two or three and four points, So I
Speaker 1: mean they're going to keep it close. I think the
Speaker 1: Rams they don't want to knock their Rams. Yeah, I mean,
Speaker 1: I didn't mean biased. I just meant, you know, tuned
Speaker 1: in as I am with the with the skins, all right,
Speaker 1: guessing lines week ten. Hope you went through the exercise
Speaker 1: with us. Chrissy, thank you. The story is available. And
Speaker 1: then one day that is so much more