WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2019 Week 10 NFL Guessing Lines Show with Chris Andrews 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:11.920 Check it down Man, Now Down Man Monday morning of 0:00:12.000 --> 0:00:14.600 Liverpool's twenty nine The up Beat in the Book podcast 0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:20.439 with Gil Alexander Guessing lines for weekken. Wow we can 0:00:20.440 --> 0:00:23.800 in the National Football League. Chris Andrews on deck to 0:00:23.840 --> 0:00:26.079 get a going My Mission book from the South Point 0:00:26.120 --> 0:00:29.800 Hotel Casino Sports Book, The Director Upset Sports Book that is. 0:00:29.840 --> 0:00:32.440 And today not only the weekly exercise of trying to 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:35.240 find value in the upcoming weekends lines in the NFL, 0:00:35.400 --> 0:00:41.280 but story time Classic in tribute to the Breeders Cup 0:00:41.320 --> 0:00:44.480 which just passes by this past weekend. A story time 0:00:44.600 --> 0:00:48.360 classic included today on the Beating the Book podcast Enjoying 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:54.040 It's a Numbers Game with your host Gil Alexander. Do 0:00:54.080 --> 0:00:56.440 you want those beauty as to believe? In Adams? It 0:00:56.600 --> 0:00:59.280 is a numbers game Monday morning right here at the 0:00:59.320 --> 0:01:01.400 Visa the bagas as the Information Network series Sex of 0:01:01.440 --> 0:01:03.720 Channel two O four, Visa dot Com, the Visa App. 0:01:04.120 --> 0:01:06.760 It's all about guessing lines today for week ten in 0:01:06.800 --> 0:01:10.040 the National Football League, the weekly exercise that has served 0:01:10.120 --> 0:01:12.880 us well this year. Uh. And as always we bring 0:01:12.880 --> 0:01:15.839 in the gentleman who I believe has a story time 0:01:15.959 --> 0:01:19.280 in store today. Uh. He is in town. He is 0:01:19.480 --> 0:01:22.560 uh somewhere here close by, not in studio with us today, 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:23.840 but he's the star of the show. He has the 0:01:23.880 --> 0:01:26.800 South Point Hotel Casino sports book director. He is my 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:30.880 mesh book of chrisy Andrews. Good morning, Chris. What's going on, pal? Yeah, 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.200 we've got a little story time in honor of the 0:01:33.240 --> 0:01:35.400 Breeders Cup, but that was over the weekend, a little 0:01:35.400 --> 0:01:37.720 horse racing story. All right, you know what that means, Chris. 0:01:37.720 --> 0:01:40.160 Then we got to get through everything real real quick. 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:44.399 Look at split. We got a bunch of teams that 0:01:44.440 --> 0:01:46.720 are off this week. I think it'll be a little 0:01:46.760 --> 0:01:49.440 tighter schedule. Okay, all right, well how did you do 0:01:49.520 --> 0:01:54.320 this weekend? Let's start there. Saturday, Well, let's go back 0:01:54.320 --> 0:01:57.520 to Thursday. Thursday rugal was very good for US. Uh 0:01:57.680 --> 0:02:00.800 niners one but not covered on a I was on teasers. 0:02:00.800 --> 0:02:05.640 Probably didn't cover their teasers either. Uh. Saturday not so good. 0:02:05.680 --> 0:02:07.960 We got beat up a little bit, mostly by the public. 0:02:08.080 --> 0:02:10.400 You know, the wise guys. We did pretty good against 0:02:11.280 --> 0:02:14.520 but the public kind of got to us on Saturday. 0:02:14.560 --> 0:02:17.720 But yesterday we made up for it. You know, bookmakers 0:02:17.760 --> 0:02:20.640 love to cry, and there's no crying yesterday. We we 0:02:20.760 --> 0:02:24.000 did pretty good. You did pretty good. Um, I had 0:02:24.080 --> 0:02:26.240 no one's crying for you. We we We've established that 0:02:26.280 --> 0:02:29.359 many times. So storytime coming up. Tribute to the Breeders 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:30.760 Cup this past weekend. By the way, how did you 0:02:30.760 --> 0:02:34.040 do with the Breeders Cup? Did you win anything? Uh? 0:02:34.080 --> 0:02:36.480 You know, I had a couple winners and a couple 0:02:36.520 --> 0:02:40.640 of small exactas, but overall lots of money, not nothing major, 0:02:41.360 --> 0:02:44.079 you know. But I did not finish on the plus side, Yeah, 0:02:44.200 --> 0:02:46.480 I was. I played some of the horses that were 0:02:46.520 --> 0:02:50.480 on the show on Friday, didn't it didn't go particularly well? Yeah, 0:02:50.560 --> 0:02:53.480 not really. Yeah, but I had dinner with Manny last night. 0:02:53.520 --> 0:02:57.200 He had Dino rosso in the classic you know, So 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:04.960 that's what you bet those Italian horses. If one all right, Well, 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:08.400 the NFL yesterday, and we will review everything from yesterday 0:03:08.400 --> 0:03:09.720 if you're just landing on the show right now at 0:03:09.720 --> 0:03:13.639 tribute to the old Stardust radio show of Guessing lines, 0:03:13.840 --> 0:03:16.560 and uh, this is really it's sort of a review 0:03:16.600 --> 0:03:19.720 of what everything that happened in the NFL yesterday while 0:03:19.720 --> 0:03:23.000 we try to find value in next week's upcoming line. 0:03:23.040 --> 0:03:28.960 So let us begin there for with Thursday night, we 0:03:29.040 --> 0:03:32.720 have the Chargers at the Raiders. And let me just 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.160 say this was this We were just talking with mentioned 0:03:35.160 --> 0:03:38.160 Paul about this. This was such a strange day in 0:03:38.160 --> 0:03:39.880 the National Football League. And since you bring up the 0:03:39.960 --> 0:03:42.560 Chargers first, let's just start there, because that might have 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:46.640 been the most most unpredictable of all the outcomes, not 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:49.320 not that the Chargers beat the Packers, but that they 0:03:49.400 --> 0:03:53.360 beat them so soundly twenty six to eleven. Uh. They 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:55.400 not only cover as four point or four and app 0:03:55.440 --> 0:03:57.240 point dogs, but they win out right in that game, 0:03:57.280 --> 0:03:59.480 do the Chargers? So the charges are four and five. 0:04:00.160 --> 0:04:03.360 They fired your boy, Ken Wizzon Hunt last week, Chris. 0:04:04.280 --> 0:04:07.400 When I say you boy, I've been beating him up 0:04:07.440 --> 0:04:09.920 for like the whole how long have we been doing 0:04:10.000 --> 0:04:12.200 this show? However long has been I've been beating up 0:04:12.280 --> 0:04:14.760 Ken Wizzen Hunt. So what was what was his first 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:18.039 crime against you as a Steeler? Uh coordinator? What was 0:04:18.040 --> 0:04:20.360 the first time that you uh you were not saying, 0:04:20.600 --> 0:04:23.400 I don't know, you know, even when he got to 0:04:23.480 --> 0:04:26.880 the Super Bowl as the coach of the of the 0:04:27.400 --> 0:04:30.679 of the Cardinals, you know, I thought like the team 0:04:30.760 --> 0:04:33.440 carried him earlier wasn't him so much as the team 0:04:33.440 --> 0:04:35.839 that carried him. And you know, and all honestly, they 0:04:35.880 --> 0:04:38.119 probably should have beat the Steelers in that Super Bowl. 0:04:38.440 --> 0:04:41.560 And but you know, if you remember back they when 0:04:41.560 --> 0:04:44.919 they got to the playoffs, people said it was the 0:04:44.960 --> 0:04:47.760 worst playoff team in history. Now, all of a sudden, 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:51.520 you've got Kurt Warner quarterback, and Larry Fitzgerald a wide receiver, 0:04:51.560 --> 0:04:55.360 and a couple other guys who really like just excelled 0:04:55.440 --> 0:04:57.719 for a couple of weeks, got into the Super Bowl, 0:04:57.800 --> 0:05:00.560 should have won that game probably against the Steeler, but didn't. 0:05:00.839 --> 0:05:03.000 But I mean, I think this he's been one of 0:05:03.040 --> 0:05:06.560 those guys that just does not utilize his talent properly. 0:05:06.880 --> 0:05:09.680 And I think he's been given talent over the years 0:05:09.720 --> 0:05:13.359 but just has has never really uh you know, build 0:05:13.400 --> 0:05:15.880 it the way he should, you know. So anyway, it's 0:05:15.880 --> 0:05:17.960 just I don't want to pretend like I'm any kind 0:05:17.960 --> 0:05:20.320 of expert in football. I'm not. But I just I 0:05:20.400 --> 0:05:22.000 know what I see, and I see a guy that 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:25.680 just has not done what he should have been with 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:28.200 a talent around it. Well, if one game by the 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:32.799 Chargers yesterday's any indication they didn't miss him, Uh, Shane Stuken. 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:35.320 I hope I'm staking him. I hope I'm pronouncing that correctly. 0:05:35.400 --> 0:05:38.000 Jacob who's in for Jeff Parlay this morning, and let 0:05:38.080 --> 0:05:39.640 me know how that's pronounced. But he's the new o 0:05:39.760 --> 0:05:43.400 C after wizzen Hunt was fired on Monday, and uh listen. 0:05:43.440 --> 0:05:45.520 The Chargers held the ball against the Packers for thirty 0:05:45.560 --> 0:05:48.559 six minutes, nearly thirty six minutes. They averaged six point 0:05:48.640 --> 0:05:51.200 five yards per play. They didn't have a three and 0:05:51.279 --> 0:05:54.880 ount on any of their nine possessions. Actually eight nine 0:05:55.000 --> 0:05:56.520 was the end of the game run out. The clock 0:05:56.880 --> 0:06:00.400 only had to punt punt once. The running game for Charges, 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:02.599 which had been held under forty yards in four straight 0:06:02.600 --> 0:06:04.680 games at a season I A hundred fifty nine yards. 0:06:04.760 --> 0:06:08.880 Melvin Gordon eighty two touchdowns, Austin Ekeler twelve for seventy. 0:06:09.360 --> 0:06:11.960 Michael Badgeley kicked four field goals his first game back 0:06:12.000 --> 0:06:15.920 from injury. Philip Rivers two ninety four. Mike Williams with 0:06:16.000 --> 0:06:18.080 the first one hundred yard receiving day in his three 0:06:18.160 --> 0:06:20.920 year career three catches for one eleven. That's kind of surprising. 0:06:20.920 --> 0:06:23.200 That was the first one hundred yard day for Mike 0:06:23.279 --> 0:06:26.960 Williams and then okay, even if you anticipated, well, maybe 0:06:27.000 --> 0:06:29.120 they'll get a bump offensively, maybe you know this team 0:06:29.160 --> 0:06:31.880 is always capable of doing well offensively. It was the 0:06:32.000 --> 0:06:35.960 defense that was the real shocker. Chargers pressured Aaron Rodgers 0:06:36.000 --> 0:06:38.559 all day, minimal blitzing. They sacked him three times. Joey 0:06:38.560 --> 0:06:40.240 Bosa had one and a half. Melvit Ingram one and 0:06:40.279 --> 0:06:41.960 a half. Bosa, by the way, five and a half 0:06:41.960 --> 0:06:45.159 sacks of his past three games. Yes again. On offense, 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:47.320 Chargers gained two hundred fifty yards in the first half 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:50.240 and a pair of scoring drives that started inside their ten. Meanwhile, 0:06:50.279 --> 0:06:54.039 the defense gave up only fifty yards UM in the half, 0:06:54.120 --> 0:06:56.400 the first time since twenty eleven they had allowed that 0:06:56.480 --> 0:06:58.719 few in the first half of any game. It was 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:02.320 only the third time under Rodgers first since that the 0:07:02.320 --> 0:07:05.040 Packers have had fifty yards are fewer in the first half. 0:07:05.360 --> 0:07:07.600 Matt Lafleur quote, Really, when you look at it at 0:07:07.600 --> 0:07:09.800 the half, we were pretty fortunate to only be down 0:07:09.920 --> 0:07:12.000 nine and nothing. We'll get into more of the Packers 0:07:12.040 --> 0:07:14.240 woes when we get to them, but that's essentially the 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.720 Chargers just utter domination Yesterday uh, they're at Oakland here. 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:20.520 This is a sneaky good Thursday night game. Now Oakland 0:07:20.640 --> 0:07:23.920 is four and four. Chris, let me just raise my hand. 0:07:24.120 --> 0:07:28.200 I thought they'd be terrible with this schedule, and their 0:07:28.200 --> 0:07:31.440 defense isn't very good, but offensively they get it done 0:07:31.480 --> 0:07:34.680 so so tip of the Captain John Gruden. Derek Carr 0:07:34.800 --> 0:07:36.960 nine yard touchdown past the Hunter Renfro with two or 0:07:37.000 --> 0:07:39.680 four left. Then Karl Joseph breaks up a fourth down 0:07:39.680 --> 0:07:41.520 pass in the end zone with three seconds left to 0:07:41.600 --> 0:07:43.960 preserve a Raiders thirty one to twenty four win over 0:07:44.000 --> 0:07:47.720 the Lions yesterday, their first game back in Oakland since 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:51.960 Week two. They had traveled over twenty thousand miles four 0:07:52.080 --> 0:07:56.680 road games, neutral site since then. Car two touchdowns, no 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.480 picks in a sac Jacob's on the ground twenty eight 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:01.600 of one to only two touchdowns. They were seven or 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:04.160 thirteen on third downs again with a lot of penalties 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:07.120 though te six. We'll have to clean that up. But 0:08:07.200 --> 0:08:09.080 first time since the merger of the Raiders got four 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:12.200 touchdowns from rookies in a single game. Renfro, Jacobs twice, 0:08:12.240 --> 0:08:16.400 Foster Brow. All of that said a game dare I 0:08:16.440 --> 0:08:20.000 say with mid season playoff implications, I'll say Oakland minus 0:08:20.040 --> 0:08:23.640 one and a half. Uh, you know, I see it 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:27.640 anywhere from pick them. Actually I see one spot even 0:08:27.640 --> 0:08:30.800 has the Chargers one, but mostly pick them to the 0:08:30.880 --> 0:08:33.319 Raiders one and a half. I'll tell you what, I 0:08:33.360 --> 0:08:36.280 think this is a really good game. And as I 0:08:36.320 --> 0:08:38.240 was looking at my numbers, I wasn't sure what to 0:08:38.320 --> 0:08:41.160 make this. I think the Raiders should be a very, 0:08:41.280 --> 0:08:46.079 very slight favorite. I'm gonna open the game one myself. Uh, 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:49.000 but you know, listen to some of the pundits this morning. 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:53.040 The Chargers have two safeties coming off the injured list 0:08:53.120 --> 0:08:57.240 that should be able to play this weekend, this Thursday. 0:08:57.559 --> 0:09:00.560 And I think that's, uh, that's a team that suddenly 0:09:00.640 --> 0:09:05.120 getting healthier. And I would be very careful betting against 0:09:05.200 --> 0:09:07.760 the charges. That. That being said, it's very impressed with 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:10.160 Oakland yesterday. And you know, I've knocked the hell out 0:09:10.160 --> 0:09:13.800 of Derrick car you know, since he's been a rookie, 0:09:14.200 --> 0:09:17.200 and uh, you know, he was very impressive yesterday. I'm 0:09:17.240 --> 0:09:20.000 looking at qbrs, he might have had the highest QBR 0:09:20.120 --> 0:09:24.480 of anybody, uh yesterday, I think Jimmy, and where's my 0:09:24.559 --> 0:09:27.240 notes here? Jimmy Garoppolo might have had a better one, 0:09:27.559 --> 0:09:30.319 of course that was being played on Thursday. But Derek 0:09:30.400 --> 0:09:34.080 Car I thought really was actually Car actually had a 0:09:34.120 --> 0:09:38.959 little bit better QBR than than Garoppolo. But he was very, 0:09:39.080 --> 0:09:41.440 very good. I thought the team looked good. Defense probably 0:09:41.480 --> 0:09:43.400 needs a little help, but you know what, Stafford is 0:09:43.480 --> 0:09:46.360 just a very good quarterback and the game four hundred 0:09:46.400 --> 0:09:50.360 yards staffed the Lions that but you know, Oakland kept 0:09:50.400 --> 0:09:51.880 him out of the end zone and they needed to. 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:54.319 And I think there's a really really good game. But 0:09:54.360 --> 0:09:57.040 I'm gonna open the Raiders one. I think they deserved 0:09:57.080 --> 0:09:59.960 to be a very slight favorite in this game. Okay, 0:10:00.040 --> 0:10:01.760 the way we don't want to tell people, don't want 0:10:01.760 --> 0:10:04.120 to give the impression that Derwin James will be back Thursday. 0:10:04.120 --> 0:10:06.920 He will not. He underwent successful surgery to repair a 0:10:06.920 --> 0:10:08.719 stress fracture in his foot. If you were called back 0:10:08.720 --> 0:10:12.000 on August twenty two, his that the typical time frame 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:14.400 for that is three to four months, So end of 0:10:14.520 --> 0:10:17.320 November is when they're scheduled to get him back. But 0:10:17.440 --> 0:10:19.760 you're right there getting a whole bunch of guys back, 0:10:20.120 --> 0:10:22.560 and he's probably the headliner of all that. Though not 0:10:22.679 --> 0:10:25.760 this Thursday for Derwin James. At least that's the word. 0:10:25.840 --> 0:10:29.800 Right now, Let's do a Sunday game, Chris, Sunday. We 0:10:29.920 --> 0:10:35.040 have the Chiefs and the Titans. Chiefs and Titans. Uh So, 0:10:35.080 --> 0:10:37.840 I guess this comes down to is Patrick Mahomes playing 0:10:37.920 --> 0:10:41.640 or not? Right, that's the first thing here. But the Chiefs, Yeah, 0:10:41.720 --> 0:10:44.200 go ahead, excuse me. I get seen by the numbers 0:10:44.200 --> 0:10:46.320 that are out there. And not everybody has numbers on 0:10:46.360 --> 0:10:48.640 this game, but I get the numbers that are out there. 0:10:48.920 --> 0:10:51.760 The assumption is right now that he will be playing, 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:55.720 that he will be playing. Okay, Chiefs beat the Vikings 0:10:55.800 --> 0:10:59.760 yesterday twenty six to twenty three. I just keep let me. 0:10:59.800 --> 0:11:02.160 Can I just say this? The Vikings should be so 0:11:02.280 --> 0:11:04.440 much better than they are. Like you know how people 0:11:04.440 --> 0:11:06.480 say the some of the parts or what is it? 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:08.280 The the whole is greater than the some of the 0:11:08.320 --> 0:11:10.640 part some of its parts. This is the opposite to 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:12.640 me with the Vikings, the some of its parts are 0:11:12.679 --> 0:11:15.920 greater than the whole. Uh. Chiefs win it yesterday again, 0:11:15.920 --> 0:11:18.720 twenty three. They do so as five and a half 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:22.320 point home dogs. Good for them, Matt More thirty five 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:25.000 for two seventy five touchdown. Note picks. He was sacked 0:11:25.040 --> 0:11:30.800 five times, but Damian Williams twelve for huge touchdown running 0:11:30.800 --> 0:11:34.120 that game, Tyreek six for one forty through the air, 0:11:34.160 --> 0:11:37.240 six catches one forty yards and a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes 0:11:37.280 --> 0:11:39.120 they did again without him, the reigning league m VP, 0:11:39.240 --> 0:11:41.480 who missed the second straight game while recovering from a 0:11:41.520 --> 0:11:43.679 dislocated kneecap. But if you are to believe what Chrissy 0:11:43.760 --> 0:11:46.800 just said, he will be back for this one at Tennessee. 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:50.200 By the way, Harrison Butker career best, tying fifty four 0:11:50.280 --> 0:11:52.280 yard field goal to tie the game than a forty 0:11:52.280 --> 0:11:55.079 four yard or to win it yesterday snapping the Chiefs 0:11:55.240 --> 0:11:59.280 three game losing streak at Arrowhead. Don't hear that very often, 0:11:59.600 --> 0:12:01.719 so um, and it should be noted also with the 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:04.120 Chiefs yesterday, because I think this this gets lost. In 0:12:04.160 --> 0:12:07.440 addition to not having Mahomes, who who justifiably gets the headlines, 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:10.760 they didn't have their left tackle Eric Fisher growing injury. 0:12:10.920 --> 0:12:14.280 They didn't have their right guard Laurent DuVernay tardif ankle. 0:12:14.559 --> 0:12:17.200 They didn't have Kendall Fuller in the secondary. They didn't 0:12:17.200 --> 0:12:19.400 have defensive ends Frank Clark or alex Oka four, so 0:12:19.440 --> 0:12:22.600 they were playing really shorthanded. The Chiefs yesterday still got 0:12:22.600 --> 0:12:26.040 it done. And then there's Tennessee. Uh this is probably 0:12:26.080 --> 0:12:27.360 this is one of the few things I ended up 0:12:27.360 --> 0:12:30.640 getting right yesterday, Carolina beating Tennessee and covering in the process. 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:33.960 Tennessee lost to Carolina thirty to twenty has three and 0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:38.160 a half point dogs. Ryan Tannehill teven thirty nine one, 0:12:38.440 --> 0:12:41.719 one touchdown, two picks, sacked four times, four carries for 0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:43.360 thirty eight yards. That a touchdown from him, but they 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:46.080 had eleven penalties did the Titans for ninety nine yards 0:12:46.520 --> 0:12:48.679 and they just can't get the field goal kicker thing right. 0:12:48.840 --> 0:12:51.840 You remember that game where Cairo Santos missed four. Yesterday, 0:12:51.920 --> 0:12:54.360 Ryan suck up. He was added the roster. He missed 0:12:54.360 --> 0:12:57.840 three from forty three, fifty six and forty four. Uh 0:12:57.920 --> 0:13:00.480 so that's not good. So Kansas City had to see 0:13:00.679 --> 0:13:09.880 assuming Mahomes all say, Kansas City minus ten, whoa, oh, 0:13:10.440 --> 0:13:14.400 Kansas City at Tennessee. Uh, you're way high three and 0:13:14.440 --> 0:13:18.640 a half. So with Mahomes just three and a half, 0:13:19.880 --> 0:13:22.560 Well that's you know, like I said, I'm looking at 0:13:22.600 --> 0:13:27.840 this and uh yeah, I mean, they haven't listed as questionable, 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:32.440 but you know, everything I've seen and heard indicates that 0:13:32.559 --> 0:13:38.040 they expect him to play. Now, you know, um, you know, 0:13:38.160 --> 0:13:41.400 I think you're way higher. You know, I gotta tell 0:13:41.440 --> 0:13:44.640 you if that's, if that's and that's three and a half, 0:13:45.000 --> 0:13:48.560 I'll take that every day, Well don't you You might 0:13:48.600 --> 0:13:52.360 be right? But you know, yeah, I'm not sure we're 0:13:52.360 --> 0:13:55.040 going to go as far as you with that. Maybe not, 0:13:55.160 --> 0:13:58.680 but you know, yeah, this is I think Kansas City 0:13:58.720 --> 0:14:00.160 is shown to be a very good team. But let 0:14:00.160 --> 0:14:03.200 me say this about Andy Reid and the guy as 0:14:03.240 --> 0:14:08.000 a head coach makes a million strategic errors, but as 0:14:08.000 --> 0:14:11.200 a quarterback coach, he can get a lot out of 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:13.720 a quarterback. Now, like I said, we talked about more 0:14:14.000 --> 0:14:16.880 came in from my homes. You know, this is not 0:14:17.000 --> 0:14:18.880 just some rookie that all of a sudden is way 0:14:18.920 --> 0:14:22.520 better than we ever thought. But Andy Reid coached him 0:14:22.600 --> 0:14:25.200 up pretty good. You know, he's really gotten good in 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:27.160 production at it more in a couple of weeks. And 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:29.520 he's played you know, he had a very good game 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:34.440 against the Vikings and we win or lose. He played well. Uh, 0:14:34.600 --> 0:14:37.240 I think you're you're you're way high. But I think 0:14:37.280 --> 0:14:39.160 that right now, I'm going to be very careful with 0:14:39.240 --> 0:14:41.720 this game, probably open for because I think if my 0:14:41.800 --> 0:14:44.280 Homes comes back, you know, they are going to pound 0:14:44.280 --> 0:14:48.440 this team pretty good. But you know, I'm just be 0:14:48.560 --> 0:14:51.120 careful with these favorites, you know, is what I would say. 0:14:51.280 --> 0:14:52.840 You know, So I'm gonna open for, but I think 0:14:52.840 --> 0:14:54.720 they're way high on this one. I'm way high. But 0:14:54.760 --> 0:14:56.040 I'll tell you what. So even if I did the 0:14:56.080 --> 0:14:58.480 thing where okay, let's say it was Matt Moore, all right, 0:14:58.520 --> 0:15:03.400 So it was Matt Moore at Tennessee, um, is Tennessee 0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:05.960 favored by a field goal in that game? I don't 0:15:05.960 --> 0:15:09.560 think they should be. So even if that's a pick that, 0:15:09.640 --> 0:15:11.440 I'm still high, right, but it should be like six 0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:15.720 or seven, Like I'm surprised that's only three with my Homes. Yeah. 0:15:15.720 --> 0:15:17.760 So you're saying if this game was at Kansas City, 0:15:17.760 --> 0:15:21.040 it's then it would be like, you know, so my 0:15:21.200 --> 0:15:23.400 tennant or something like that. Yeah. No, no, so let's 0:15:23.480 --> 0:15:25.600 establish it by tennis too high. But let's say if 0:15:25.600 --> 0:15:28.200 it's if it's Matt Moore in Kansas City at Tennessee, 0:15:29.320 --> 0:15:31.600 is Tennessee favored by like what would you think that 0:15:31.640 --> 0:15:33.520 would be like, So I would say it would be 0:15:33.560 --> 0:15:35.560 around to pick them, and so then it should probably 0:15:35.560 --> 0:15:38.160 be like Kansas City minus six or Kansas City, you know, 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:40.960 MIGHTUS six and a half whatever it is. So I'm high, 0:15:41.160 --> 0:15:46.480 but three is way low to me. Three and a half. Yeah, yeah, 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:50.800 it's wad Yeah. You know, listen, I see your point. 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:54.320 You're making some very valid points on this, but uh, 0:15:54.920 --> 0:15:57.720 you know again, i'd be very careful with you know, 0:15:57.800 --> 0:15:59.960 land points on the road. And I'm not a big 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:03.880 systems guy, you know, a matter of fact, scoff at 0:16:03.920 --> 0:16:06.680 most of them. But one I've watched over the years 0:16:07.480 --> 0:16:13.600 comes to a fruition at a pretty alarming rate, probably 0:16:13.600 --> 0:16:16.240 like about sixty eight percent something like that. And that's 0:16:16.280 --> 0:16:17.840 just off the top of my head. When you go 0:16:17.920 --> 0:16:20.800 from a home dog to a road favorite, you usually 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:25.720 want to play that that play against that team. And listen, 0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:29.080 I fell into the trap yesterday. I had Minnesota in 0:16:29.240 --> 0:16:34.160 all my contests. I just yeah, I mean, I fell 0:16:34.200 --> 0:16:36.440 into that trap. Man. I could see early on if 0:16:36.440 --> 0:16:38.680 I could have won, god knows I could have won that, 0:16:38.720 --> 0:16:40.280 it would have been a miracle. I didn't have the 0:16:40.400 --> 0:16:43.680 right side, but I would just be very careful here. 0:16:43.720 --> 0:16:45.600 I think that, like I said, you go from a 0:16:45.640 --> 0:16:49.760 home dog to a road favorite. I would tread very likely. 0:16:49.840 --> 0:16:51.480 All right, I want to I want to mulligan all that, 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:53.360 but I'll still say Kansas City by the seven and 0:16:53.360 --> 0:16:57.200 a half. The point still remains. I'm way higher on that, 0:16:57.720 --> 0:17:00.520 uh than than what is being post it out there. 0:17:00.680 --> 0:17:02.760 All right, we'll do more of these. Hang on. We 0:17:02.800 --> 0:17:05.680 always say one thing, you don't want to think parallel 0:17:05.720 --> 0:17:12.800 to the bookmakers. Lord knows, Chris, I've been doing that 0:17:12.840 --> 0:17:16.000 all year. It is service pretty well though. We'll come back. 0:17:16.040 --> 0:17:17.720 We'll do more guesting lines week nine. There is a 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:19.760 story a week ten. Rather, there is a story time 0:17:19.800 --> 0:17:22.159 coming up as well on the show today tribute to 0:17:22.320 --> 0:17:24.879 uh the Breeders Cup. This week it's a horse raising, 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:27.800 a classic story time from Chrissy. It's all brought you 0:17:27.840 --> 0:17:30.119 by the bet MGM app. First time players can make 0:17:30.160 --> 0:17:32.280 their first bet. 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Gambling them call 0:18:00.320 --> 0:18:03.280 one eight gambler. It's the bet MGM app VSA in 0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:06.160 five hundred guessing lines week ten, coming back right here 0:18:06.160 --> 0:18:09.200 on the Numbers game at Visa. Welcome back to a 0:18:09.359 --> 0:18:13.760 numbers game with Jill Alexander pussing lines. Week ten in 0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:15.879 the National Football League is what we do. Try to 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:19.680 uncover some value interesting Kansas City Chiefs line. I would 0:18:19.680 --> 0:18:23.440 say it uh Tennessee. Either way, let us continue because 0:18:23.480 --> 0:18:25.200 we do have a story time coming up from Chrissy. 0:18:25.280 --> 0:18:31.360 What's next? Chris Buffalo at Cleveland, Buffalo at Cleveland. It's 0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:33.720 funny you mentioned the Cleveland Browns because I'm singing right here. 0:18:34.000 --> 0:18:39.000 Jermaine Whitehead waved waved this morning by the Cleveland Browns. 0:18:39.880 --> 0:18:44.280 UH safety Jermaine Whitehead waved just hours after he boasted profanity, 0:18:44.359 --> 0:18:47.760 lace and threatening comments on social media media following Sunday's 0:18:47.800 --> 0:18:51.600 loss at Denver. So that's the end of that UM 0:18:51.640 --> 0:18:56.000 as far as this game is concerned. So, um, what 0:18:56.119 --> 0:18:57.840 is it again? Cleveland? Where is the where's the game 0:18:57.960 --> 0:19:02.320 in Buffalo? At Buffalo at Cleveland? So six and to 0:19:02.640 --> 0:19:08.960 Buffalo two in six Cleveland? Jeez? Yesterday and the Redskins 0:19:09.040 --> 0:19:12.520 law the Bills win over the Redskins. Josh Allen fourteen 0:19:13.240 --> 0:19:16.639 sixty one touchdown, no picks, was sacked two times, Devin's single. 0:19:16.720 --> 0:19:19.280 Tarry was the real offensive star for the Bills yesterday, 0:19:19.440 --> 0:19:22.520 twenty carries for ninety five yards, touchdown, three catches for 0:19:22.520 --> 0:19:25.200 forty five yards. The Bills held the Skins to two 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:28.119 of eleven on third down. No real surprise there. Dwayne 0:19:28.119 --> 0:19:30.680 Haskins not doing much. Buffalo off to its best start 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:34.720 since going seven and one in three UM, although there's 0:19:34.720 --> 0:19:37.359 six wins have come against teams that entered yesterday with 0:19:37.440 --> 0:19:41.400 combined seven and thirty one record, so let's not go crazy. 0:19:41.880 --> 0:19:44.240 Second half though, they got things together yesterday after Washington 0:19:44.280 --> 0:19:46.320 played with him for a half a p was doing 0:19:46.359 --> 0:19:48.600 big things. They limited the Skins to seventy eight yards 0:19:48.600 --> 0:19:51.880 of offense and a field goal. And then, Chris, there 0:19:51.880 --> 0:19:56.960 are the Cleveland Browns. Um. They lose to Denver yesterday 0:19:57.000 --> 0:20:00.800 by the score of twenty four to nineteen. Cleveland, who 0:20:00.840 --> 0:20:03.560 had all that hype before the season betting markets, No 0:20:04.200 --> 0:20:07.000 betters loved no team more than they did the Cleveland 0:20:07.000 --> 0:20:10.879 Browns Baker Mayfield yesterday twenty seven forty two and defeat 0:20:10.880 --> 0:20:14.040 two seventy three, one touchdown note picks, two sacks. They 0:20:14.119 --> 0:20:17.280 allowed Brandon Allen. What's your favorite moment of the Brandon 0:20:17.320 --> 0:20:22.320 Allen Arkansas years? Chris, Oh my god. I had to 0:20:22.359 --> 0:20:25.880 look up to see who he played. I think most 0:20:25.960 --> 0:20:29.359 people did. Brandon Allen was twelve of twenty one two 0:20:29.440 --> 0:20:31.960 touchdowns note picks. He was sacked three times. It was 0:20:32.000 --> 0:20:35.399 his first start since the twenty sixteen Liberty boll How 0:20:35.400 --> 0:20:39.919 about that, um, Listen. The Browns ran thirty more plays 0:20:39.920 --> 0:20:43.480 in the Broncos seventy three to forty three. They couldn't 0:20:43.640 --> 0:20:46.719 make stops on defense when they needed to, uh, they 0:20:46.760 --> 0:20:48.200 lit a couple of big drives first of all Philip 0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:50.520 Lindsay nine for ninety two and a touchdown on the 0:20:50.520 --> 0:20:54.120