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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us prow

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Speaker 1: read enough.

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Speaker 2: No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet, slendid sixteen

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Speaker 2: just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

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Speaker 2: percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How shot

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Speaker 2: with that?

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Speaker 3: Shop with mind?

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Speaker 2: Good buddy, and.

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Speaker 3: That's why you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements,

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Speaker 3: the most.

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Speaker 2: Dangerous amount of the planet. Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The one.

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Speaker 3: It's left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 4: Drilled bibus.

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Speaker 2: How old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello, eyone, Welcome back to Wonderful the Soccer Betting Podcast

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Speaker 4: from the action I represented to you by Bet three

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Speaker 4: sixty five. My name is Michael Lee Buff and joining

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Speaker 4: me in just one moment are my co hosts and

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Speaker 4: colleagues VJ. Cunningham and Anthony Dbundo. But before I bring

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Speaker 4: in those two fine gentlemen, a reminder that one er

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Speaker 4: goal is proudly presented by Bet three sixty five, and

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Speaker 4: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that

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Speaker 4: every sport should be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point,

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Speaker 4: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 4: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 4: you sign up today with the promo code Action and

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Speaker 4: bets when you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport,

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Speaker 4: whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. At bet three sixty five,

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Speaker 4: you must be twenty one or older and present in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky,

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Speaker 4: New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. And if you or someone

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Speaker 4: you know has a gambling problem and wants help, please

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Speaker 4: call one eight hundred Gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio,

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Speaker 4: and Virginia and one eight hundred bets off b ets

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Speaker 4: off in Iowa. Terms and conditions.

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Speaker 1: Apply to the casual punter.

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Speaker 4: A real fun weekend coming up in the Premier League

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Speaker 4: to someone who to the person in your life, maybe

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Speaker 4: it's you who gets into the weeds betting on the

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Speaker 4: Premier League A tricky one to handicap. I would say

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Speaker 4: maybe the most complicated board of the season so far,

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Speaker 4: because the injuries coming back from international break point deductions,

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Speaker 4: all sorts of.

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Speaker 1: Chaos to sift through.

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Speaker 4: But that's what we're here for, and that's what we're

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Speaker 4: gonna do, and we'll start with the headliner between Manchester

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Speaker 4: City and Liverpool. This is at the YETI had City

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Speaker 4: minus one forty three and odds on favorite Liverpool traveling

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Speaker 4: at plus three thirty three and the draw is plus

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Speaker 4: three twenty bj. I think that, like, if you had

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Speaker 4: to choose a side here, you probably lean towards the underdog.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would agree for me though. I think it's

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Speaker 3: a very very interesting tactical matchup and one that I

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Speaker 3: think is more exciting to live bet than play aside

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Speaker 3: pre match, So just setting all the injury stuff aside,

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Speaker 3: because there are a lot of guys that are questionable

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Speaker 3: to play here for City. If all of them play,

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Speaker 3: I'm very interested to see what Pep's approach is because

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Speaker 3: his approach against Chelsea was incredibly aggressive. He was essentially

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Speaker 3: pressing with a front five and Chelsea was consistently playing

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Speaker 3: through that first line of pressure and creating those transitional moments.

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Speaker 3: Now he wants to try to do that against Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: There's not a better transition team in the world right

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Speaker 3: now than Liverpool, so they are going to get ripped

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Speaker 3: apart if they try to do that. Now, we could

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Speaker 3: also see the approach that Pep has gone with against

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Speaker 3: teams like Arsenal, where he has played very passive, tried

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Speaker 3: to cut off central progression and force teams out wide. Now,

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Speaker 3: from the aspect of what does Liverpool potentially do out

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Speaker 3: of possession, I think it's very interesting. Chelsea from the

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Speaker 3: get go was like City, you're not playing through the

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Speaker 3: center of the pitch. They closed it off and then

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Speaker 3: but City kept trying to play through there. City what

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Speaker 3: they're running into right now because john Stones hasn't been

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Speaker 3: healthy is because when they try to build up, they

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Speaker 3: like to push that center back into the middle of

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Speaker 3: the pitch. Well, Kanji was playing that role against Chelsea

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Speaker 3: and he just wasn't as good at that role as

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Speaker 3: john Stones was. So City obviously got forward and transitioned

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Speaker 3: a couple of times, created a couple of big chances,

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Speaker 3: and they could do that here against Liverpool because if

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Speaker 3: Liverpool decides, which they usually do, to invert Trent Alexander

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Speaker 3: Arnold in the middle of the pitch when they build up,

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Speaker 3: that's going to leave a lot of space out wide

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Speaker 3: for somebody like Doku to cause a ton of problems.

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Speaker 3: Now I'm going to be potentially looking at playing a

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Speaker 3: live over here, depending on what City tries to do.

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Speaker 3: If they play more aggressively, I think that will create

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Speaker 3: a lot more chaos. It also kind of depends obviously

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Speaker 3: who's going to be playing for City. Holland is obviously questionable,

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Speaker 3: Aka is questionable, Edison is questionable. So if all of

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Speaker 3: those guys don't play, then it makes it harder, especially

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Speaker 3: if Holland's out to play and over. But if they

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Speaker 3: do play, and especially if Doku plays on the left,

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Speaker 3: Qunat is questionable for Liverpool, which is going to leave

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Speaker 3: a lot of open space for Doku to go one

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Speaker 3: on one against somebody like Joel Matty, which is going

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Speaker 3: to be a very difficult matchup for Liverpool. So I'll

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Speaker 3: be potentially looking at it live over here if we

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Speaker 3: get a lot of chaos at the beginning, and then maybe,

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Speaker 3: you know, we get a couple of big chances and

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Speaker 3: teams are playing aggressively, try to hop in and a

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Speaker 3: live over. But outside of that, for me, I think

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Speaker 3: the line is right pre match, so I'll be passing

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Speaker 3: on it. It just really depends. I don't really know

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Speaker 3: what Pep's gonna do. Is he gonna play aggressively or

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Speaker 3: is he going to go back to game control And

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Speaker 3: I think we need to watch that and figure it

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Speaker 3: out before we can make a bet on it.

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Speaker 2: I think it's much more likely that he tries to

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Speaker 2: dial it back a little bit. Yeah, but that doesn't

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Speaker 2: mean it's going to work. Right. We've seen Guardiola and

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Speaker 2: they seem to have one or two of those early

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Speaker 2: season games every year, the Newcastle game last year and

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Speaker 2: this year you know it being the Chelsea game with

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Speaker 2: you know, six expected goals in that match and eight

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Speaker 2: actual goals. But I think Liverpool is going to be

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Speaker 2: much healthier slash available now right. They had to play

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Speaker 2: a makeshift midfield against Brentford. They were not great in

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Speaker 2: that match. I know they've they won it three zero,

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Speaker 2: but if you look at final xgu was one point

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Speaker 2: seven to one point six. Brentford took sixteen shots in

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Speaker 2: that game. I know there were a couple like close

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Speaker 2: off side calls that hurt Liverpool as well, but I

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Speaker 2: thought the Bees were very dangerous and I think I

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Speaker 2: thought it came down to just Liverpool not having the

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Speaker 2: ball stopping in the midfield. And we talked about this,

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Speaker 2: like McAllistair will be back from suspension. It looks like

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Speaker 2: graven Burke is going to play and so the bush

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Speaker 2: Slye Jones may also be back. Conant is questionable. So

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Speaker 2: there are a couple question marks. But I do think

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Speaker 2: Liverpool will have their first choice three that they've been

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Speaker 2: rolling with lately, which is Sobo and McAllister and gravenburg available.

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Speaker 2: So certainly Liverpool, you know, close to full strength here

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Speaker 2: been playing Nunya's up top, which has been I think

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Speaker 2: his best position. I think their best three attackers in

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Speaker 2: this in the space are you know, Nunya's Saw and DS,

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Speaker 2: so you know whether it's him or Jota. I think

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Speaker 2: you know, Liverpool's kind of finding its best lineup. And

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Speaker 2: if you just look at non penalty expected goal difference

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Speaker 2: this year in eleven on eleven minutes only, they have

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Speaker 2: been about even teams this year. There's not been a

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Speaker 2: huge gap between the two of them. Liverpool is plus

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Speaker 2: one point three seven City plus one point four to five,

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Speaker 2: and you could squint a little bit and kind of

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Speaker 2: pick nits at City's numbers against the fellow top teams.

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Speaker 2: They haven't really had like a dominant performance against a

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Speaker 2: fellow Big six opponent outside of the derby against United,

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Speaker 2: which you know we don't think much of them, so

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Speaker 2: you could pick Nits. I have City one thirty six

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Speaker 2: here it's assuming Hollins and of course so I don't

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Speaker 2: really have a strong opinion on the side here, but

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Speaker 2: I would you know, lean just toward Liverpool based on

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Speaker 2: the fact that Liverpool, for me, their ceiling is still

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Speaker 2: right there with City.

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Speaker 3: One thing I'll also say about Liverpool is we haven't

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Speaker 3: really seen them at full strength against an elite team

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Speaker 3: because if you remember, they obviously were down a man

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Speaker 3: against Newcastle, down two man against against Tottenham. The last

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Speaker 3: match where they've played essentially in what you would call

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Speaker 3: in a top six side would have been Brighton at Brighton,

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Speaker 3: which ended up being a very even to too draw.

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Speaker 3: Since then, they were up man against Everton and dominated them.

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Speaker 3: They beat Nottingham Forrest, they drew Withlwtontown but created almost

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Speaker 3: three extracted goals, and then obviously beat Brentford over the

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Speaker 3: weekend before the international breaks. So it'll be very interesting

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Speaker 3: to see what Liverpool looks like against one of these

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Speaker 3: elite teams. So and then it'll be a good litanus test.

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Speaker 3: Now coming up, they'd have a pretty easy schedule, you know, Fulham,

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Speaker 3: Sheffield United, Palace, but then they got United in Arsenal

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Speaker 3: and then the reverse fixture against Newcastle around the festive

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Speaker 3: fixture times. So this will be a very very good

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Speaker 3: litus test comparatively to those matches to see how good

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Speaker 3: Liverpool actually is.

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Speaker 4: Yet one point separating these two teams in the table

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Speaker 4: coming back from the international break, and as BJ alluded to,

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Speaker 4: we are about to head into the busiest time of

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Speaker 4: year for soccer teams, players, fans, betters, et cetera. So

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Speaker 4: get your betting boots on.

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Speaker 2: I imagine I will be betting Liverpool to win the league

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Speaker 2: if they lose this game.

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Speaker 3: Stop.

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Speaker 2: Okay, I think we're gonna get like ten to one.

186
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Speaker 2: I think I'm going to be in Well, we'll see,

187
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Speaker 2: we'll see how Saturday goes.

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Speaker 3: There, you have it, well, I mean it's a lot

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Speaker 3: of fun about your favorite team, right.

190
00:09:37,440 --> 00:09:39,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, right like this Every year, every year we hear

191
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Speaker 4: this song and dance from Anthony about his boys Newcastle

192
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Speaker 4: and Chelsea. Now we'll save that conversation for after the

193
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Speaker 4: game that Anthony is hypothetically talking about Newcastle plus one

194
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Speaker 4: fifty at home Chelsea plus one sixty two the jaw

195
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Speaker 4: plus two sixty Every team save for like three in

196
00:10:02,800 --> 00:10:05,920
Speaker 4: the Premier League are just the walking wounded right now.

197
00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:10,800
Speaker 4: Maybe Newcastle has the worst and Chelsea's not that far behind,

198
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Speaker 4: but Chelsea's been dealing with a lot of the injuries

199
00:10:12,720 --> 00:10:16,480
Speaker 4: that they're still dealing with all season, So all things

200
00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:17,959
Speaker 4: being equal, I would have loved I would love to

201
00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:21,920
Speaker 4: bet Newcastle on the spot at home, Chelsea kind of

202
00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,400
Speaker 4: riding high after that to performance a Fortnite ago, so

203
00:10:25,600 --> 00:10:27,920
Speaker 4: decent cell high opportunity with the way that they the

204
00:10:27,920 --> 00:10:32,160
Speaker 4: Blues have been going. But it's it's really hard to

205
00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,560
Speaker 4: bet Newcastle here because I just who's gonna play for

206
00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:39,040
Speaker 4: this team? Antony, like, who who's who's gonna play for that?

207
00:10:39,520 --> 00:10:41,280
Speaker 2: Are we overrating the injuries now?

208
00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:43,520
Speaker 4: I think we are because it's when they're when no,

209
00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:45,600
Speaker 4: when they're if it's like one or two guys, I

210
00:10:45,600 --> 00:10:48,000
Speaker 4: actually think you you both will talk about like one

211
00:10:48,120 --> 00:10:50,959
Speaker 4: or two guys too much and we can get into overrating.

212
00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:54,760
Speaker 4: But when it's a cluster, it becomes a whole different thing.

213
00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,040
Speaker 4: Like I think one off injuries are are very different

214
00:10:58,080 --> 00:11:02,040
Speaker 4: from eleven people who are dealing with right right, But.

215
00:11:01,840 --> 00:11:03,800
Speaker 2: They are getting some positive news here, right, so like

216
00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:07,280
Speaker 2: Esac might be back, and absolutely that's true. Like the

217
00:11:07,320 --> 00:11:10,280
Speaker 2: market I think doesn't even go as far. Like you know,

218
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,880
Speaker 2: the Newcastle was minus one thirty five forty and then

219
00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:16,640
Speaker 2: you know last week at Bourne, myth and the market

220
00:11:16,679 --> 00:11:18,520
Speaker 2: just kept going and going and going because the injury

221
00:11:18,520 --> 00:11:21,120
Speaker 2: news just kept getting worse. Wilson was out, Esoch wasn't

222
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Speaker 2: going to be back. They ended up starting just like

223
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Speaker 2: a really bad soccer team, yep, right, and got out played.

224
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Speaker 2: But now Bruno is back from suspension. We know that

225
00:11:31,200 --> 00:11:36,600
Speaker 2: al Marona trending toward playing, Esch trending toward playing like

226
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,800
Speaker 2: that's kind of enough for me to buy in again

227
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Speaker 2: because that's like the best midfooter on the team.

228
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Speaker 1: That's enough for you. If they if they play, or

229
00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:46,840
Speaker 1: just the fact that.

230
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Speaker 2: If they play, like I'm going to I'm not betting now,

231
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Speaker 2: right because right now, you know we're recording this Tuesday afternoon.

232
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Speaker 2: The market has clearly downgraded them, yep, right off of

233
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Speaker 2: these injuries, and there's a chance that the market has

234
00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:00,520
Speaker 2: gone too far. And then I want to actually bet

235
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Speaker 2: on Newcastle. I mean that being said, I don't really

236
00:12:02,679 --> 00:12:04,080
Speaker 2: want to bet against Chelsea right now because I think

237
00:12:04,080 --> 00:12:07,319
Speaker 2: they're quickly improving. They're figuring it out, you know, kind

238
00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:10,280
Speaker 2: of more so, they're quickly improving, which is just that

239
00:12:10,320 --> 00:12:11,920
Speaker 2: the shots are going in the net now instead of

240
00:12:11,920 --> 00:12:16,640
Speaker 2: missing the net. But yeah, I mean, I think there's

241
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Speaker 2: something to be said that Chelsea has once again turned

242
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Speaker 2: in one of their best performances of the season against

243
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Speaker 2: a fellow Big Six team who wants to go at them.

244
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Speaker 2: But that's not really Newcastle in a sense, Like Newcastle's

245
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Speaker 2: not gonna want the possession of the ball. They will press,

246
00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:32,160
Speaker 2: so you know they're gonna you know, two of the

247
00:12:32,160 --> 00:12:34,160
Speaker 2: best pressing teams I think in the league right now,

248
00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:38,360
Speaker 2: two of the three best with Arsenal Newcastle Chelsea, so

249
00:12:38,520 --> 00:12:40,600
Speaker 2: you know that'll be interesting. But I mean, think about

250
00:12:40,679 --> 00:12:43,080
Speaker 2: how crazy this line is given what we just saw.

251
00:12:43,160 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 2: Like two weeks ago, we all said it's ridiculous that

252
00:12:45,960 --> 00:12:49,840
Speaker 2: Newcastle is a home dog to Arsenal. Now Newcastle's like

253
00:12:49,880 --> 00:12:54,080
Speaker 2: a home pick them to Chelsea. Yeah, you know, I

254
00:12:54,080 --> 00:12:56,560
Speaker 2: mean I've downgraded Arsenal, I've upgraded Chelsea, but I'm not

255
00:12:56,600 --> 00:12:59,640
Speaker 2: that close on those two teams. So I think there's

256
00:12:59,640 --> 00:13:04,040
Speaker 2: something to you said for you know, waiting and seeing

257
00:13:04,200 --> 00:13:08,600
Speaker 2: and maybe grabbing some Newcastle. Yeah, I don't think the press,

258
00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:11,760
Speaker 2: like Chelsea's pretty press resistant, so that's worth something to them.

259
00:13:11,800 --> 00:13:17,679
Speaker 2: They've been pretty good and build up. But Newcastle's injuries,

260
00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:19,560
Speaker 2: like if Esac can't go, they just don't have a

261
00:13:19,559 --> 00:13:23,480
Speaker 2: striker right at the club who can play that position,

262
00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:25,480
Speaker 2: And if al Moron can't go, they don't really have

263
00:13:25,520 --> 00:13:29,840
Speaker 2: wingers outside of Anthony Gordon either, So now there like

264
00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:33,439
Speaker 2: is lever Mento gonna play wing or that's the gast.

265
00:13:33,240 --> 00:13:36,360
Speaker 3: To play left back because Lewis Hall can't face Chelsea right.

266
00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:40,120
Speaker 2: So there's all kinds of questions. But I do think

267
00:13:40,160 --> 00:13:42,200
Speaker 2: that if you start to see good news on Esac

268
00:13:42,440 --> 00:13:46,680
Speaker 2: and Amron that I would be closer to betting Newcastle

269
00:13:46,679 --> 00:13:50,360
Speaker 2: at home here than betting Chelsea, but probably gonna end

270
00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,120
Speaker 2: up passing this one overall.

271
00:13:52,840 --> 00:13:56,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, so another one is shar who is

272
00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:01,840
Speaker 3: also questionable because if he doesn't play, then Newcastle has

273
00:14:02,080 --> 00:14:04,480
Speaker 3: no depth at center back because Dan Byrne is also out.

274
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:07,080
Speaker 3: Because Dan burr can very easily sought into that center

275
00:14:07,080 --> 00:14:08,839
Speaker 3: back role where he's usually playing as left back, but

276
00:14:08,880 --> 00:14:12,840
Speaker 3: he's also out, so for me, it's e Shoch and

277
00:14:13,400 --> 00:14:15,360
Speaker 3: Shar are the most important too. If both of those

278
00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:18,760
Speaker 3: guys play, and even how Almoran plays as well, it's

279
00:14:18,840 --> 00:14:23,320
Speaker 3: not that far off from Newcastle's usual starting eleven that

280
00:14:23,320 --> 00:14:26,280
Speaker 3: they would normally play against one of the normal Premier

281
00:14:26,360 --> 00:14:29,680
Speaker 3: League side. So yeah, I agree with Anthony. It's wait

282
00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:32,720
Speaker 3: and see. Newcastle has been a little more passive out

283
00:14:32,720 --> 00:14:35,880
Speaker 3: of possession. They're not just relentlessly pressing with their normal

284
00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:37,360
Speaker 3: four to three three. They would switched to a four

285
00:14:37,400 --> 00:14:39,920
Speaker 3: or five to one try to limit that central progression

286
00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,520
Speaker 3: and press more out of a mid block. It's been

287
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:45,360
Speaker 3: pretty successful, so I don't think you will see Chelsea

288
00:14:45,480 --> 00:14:47,440
Speaker 3: be able to play through the press like they were

289
00:14:47,480 --> 00:14:50,440
Speaker 3: able to when City was very aggressive against them. Plus,

290
00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:52,520
Speaker 3: this is Newcastle at home. They have one of the

291
00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:54,720
Speaker 3: best home field advantages in the Premier League and they've

292
00:14:54,720 --> 00:14:56,960
Speaker 3: been one of the best home teams in England for

293
00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:01,120
Speaker 3: a long time now, So yeah, it'd be Newcastle pick

294
00:15:01,120 --> 00:15:07,160
Speaker 3: them for me. If both Shak and Shar play, that

295
00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:09,600
Speaker 3: will be massive for them, and I think it's good

296
00:15:09,680 --> 00:15:11,320
Speaker 3: enough to bet Newcastle how to pick them.

297
00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:17,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, interesting conundrum, the classic No, you know that if

298
00:15:17,600 --> 00:15:21,280
Speaker 4: the injury news is good, particularly on Eshak, like this

299
00:15:21,400 --> 00:15:27,120
Speaker 4: number will move towards Yeah, you'll want to beat the market,

300
00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:31,520
Speaker 4: but at the same time we could be looking at

301
00:15:31,520 --> 00:15:33,160
Speaker 4: a situation like Anthony said, where they just don't have

302
00:15:33,160 --> 00:15:36,840
Speaker 4: anyone to finish chances and they turn into Chelsea of October,

303
00:15:38,160 --> 00:15:41,360
Speaker 4: not to Burnley and west Ham now. So so those

304
00:15:41,360 --> 00:15:44,880
Speaker 4: first two matches we talked about obviously are big for

305
00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,880
Speaker 4: that big picture Premier League. This one I think is

306
00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:53,000
Speaker 4: sneaky important for both teams. I know that that west

307
00:15:53,000 --> 00:15:56,000
Speaker 4: Ham is pretty comfortable where they're sitting on the table

308
00:15:56,040 --> 00:16:00,480
Speaker 4: on seventeen points and clear of relegation relegation issues, but

309
00:16:01,480 --> 00:16:04,000
Speaker 4: with the way that they've been going this season, you

310
00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,320
Speaker 4: do have to wonder, like how many more like downturns

311
00:16:07,360 --> 00:16:11,440
Speaker 4: and form they can handle with Without David Moy's really

312
00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:13,240
Speaker 4: starting to feel the pressure. You started to feel it

313
00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:15,600
Speaker 4: a bit in the early going. They get the win

314
00:16:15,640 --> 00:16:19,240
Speaker 4: over Noddingham Forest going into the international break to stop

315
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:22,680
Speaker 4: a three match losing streak. Meanwhile, Burnley they're propping the

316
00:16:22,720 --> 00:16:26,920
Speaker 4: table up at the moment, so they just need this

317
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:32,360
Speaker 4: win for safety purposes, and I actually don't think that

318
00:16:33,040 --> 00:16:36,360
Speaker 4: in a Claret and Blue Derby here that the Clarets

319
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:39,360
Speaker 4: Burnley are all that off putting as a bet here,

320
00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,440
Speaker 4: I think plus two seventy five at home coming off

321
00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:46,320
Speaker 4: an international break playing a still overraided west Ham team

322
00:16:46,360 --> 00:16:49,560
Speaker 4: not terrible. That the tactical stuff still is a concern

323
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:52,800
Speaker 4: with Burnley, and I think playing a David Moy's side

324
00:16:53,880 --> 00:16:57,200
Speaker 4: in their style is a little concerning. But I think

325
00:16:57,200 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 4: this is a pretty good by low spot on Burnley

326
00:16:59,320 --> 00:17:00,480
Speaker 4: BJ I.

327
00:17:00,440 --> 00:17:03,280
Speaker 3: Think it is too. I hate this match so much

328
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:06,680
Speaker 3: because I've been very anti Burnley for a long time now.

329
00:17:08,480 --> 00:17:11,719
Speaker 3: Both the prices on west Ham are getting crazy. They

330
00:17:11,720 --> 00:17:13,920
Speaker 3: should never have been, like we mentioned, they never should

331
00:17:13,920 --> 00:17:16,119
Speaker 3: have been minus one twenty five at home against Nottingham Forests,

332
00:17:16,160 --> 00:17:20,240
Speaker 3: and you know the goals that they scored were you know,

333
00:17:20,800 --> 00:17:22,639
Speaker 3: a little bit. You know, the first goal they scored

334
00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,560
Speaker 3: was Demingas just kicked the ball off his own defender

335
00:17:25,560 --> 00:17:27,199
Speaker 3: and Poketa just went in and scored, and then they

336
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:30,680
Speaker 3: scored off a set piece. But this is the TIMEE

337
00:17:30,720 --> 00:17:33,840
Speaker 3: match though, I think Burnley can actually be successful. Where

338
00:17:33,840 --> 00:17:36,520
Speaker 3: Burnley has struggled is against teams that will press them high.

339
00:17:36,640 --> 00:17:38,119
Speaker 3: They're not good enough to build to play, they can

340
00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 3: constantly turn it over and that's when you see them

341
00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:44,520
Speaker 3: conceding two three expected goals. They've actually been the matches

342
00:17:44,520 --> 00:17:48,240
Speaker 3: where they've actually gotten points. They've been against teams like

343
00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:51,879
Speaker 3: Lowtontown and Nottingham Forest, which plays very similar style to

344
00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,560
Speaker 3: that of west Ham. And for west Ham, it's also

345
00:17:54,600 --> 00:17:57,719
Speaker 3: concerning who's actually going to start up top for them

346
00:17:57,720 --> 00:17:59,959
Speaker 3: because Antonio has been out, so they started Jaring Bow

347
00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:02,520
Speaker 3: up top, which was pretty successful, but now he is

348
00:18:02,600 --> 00:18:04,960
Speaker 3: questionable to play, So is it going to be Kudus?

349
00:18:05,080 --> 00:18:07,480
Speaker 3: Is it going to be Keita? Who's actually going to

350
00:18:07,560 --> 00:18:11,120
Speaker 3: start up top here? For west Ham? And I thought

351
00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:15,880
Speaker 3: Burnley against Arsenal for large stretches, you know, they went,

352
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:20,520
Speaker 3: but Vincent Company kind of switched them into a good

353
00:18:20,520 --> 00:18:23,720
Speaker 3: defensive block team. They were cutting off central progression, they

354
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:26,080
Speaker 3: weren't trying to press Arsenal and they were doing a

355
00:18:26,160 --> 00:18:28,720
Speaker 3: very good job of it for pretty large stretches. You know,

356
00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:31,439
Speaker 3: Arsenal got into two v ones in wide areas, but

357
00:18:31,440 --> 00:18:33,240
Speaker 3: Burnley was okay with that as long as they weren't

358
00:18:33,240 --> 00:18:34,639
Speaker 3: able to play through the center of the pitch. And

359
00:18:34,840 --> 00:18:38,280
Speaker 3: Arsenal sto obviously scored off a set piece and that's

360
00:18:38,280 --> 00:18:40,000
Speaker 3: where Burnley's kind of struggled as well, which is a

361
00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:43,120
Speaker 3: concern here against west Ham. But yeah, I mean west

362
00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:46,159
Speaker 3: Ham is a road favorite at minus well five. I

363
00:18:46,200 --> 00:18:48,480
Speaker 3: know it's Burnley and I know they've been terrible, but man,

364
00:18:49,760 --> 00:18:53,800
Speaker 3: that's too high for west Ham. So I am projecting

365
00:18:53,800 --> 00:18:55,320
Speaker 3: a little bit of value on Burnley, but the market

366
00:18:55,400 --> 00:18:57,879
Speaker 3: keeps moving towards west Ham. So I'm gonna wait and

367
00:18:57,920 --> 00:19:00,280
Speaker 3: see if we can get maybe a better price here

368
00:19:00,280 --> 00:19:01,800
Speaker 3: on Burnley, which I think we might be able to

369
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:04,399
Speaker 3: closer to match time. So it'd be Burnley plus a

370
00:19:04,400 --> 00:19:06,280
Speaker 3: half for me, but I'd keep waiting and see if

371
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,399
Speaker 3: you can maybe get them at a plus number for

372
00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:09,119
Speaker 3: plus a half.

373
00:19:09,720 --> 00:19:12,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, is Antonio addition by subtraction?

374
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,200
Speaker 3: It's out of possession stuff that I think really makes

375
00:19:16,200 --> 00:19:18,439
Speaker 3: them a little bit better as opposed to a guy.

376
00:19:18,320 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 2: Like Kudu's right, But here's the thing, like, so you

377
00:19:21,640 --> 00:19:24,199
Speaker 2: know what they did instead of playing Antonio was just

378
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:27,880
Speaker 2: at another midfielder and it's like the least functional midfield

379
00:19:27,880 --> 00:19:32,080
Speaker 2: in the prem right now. Yeap, So check like gets

380
00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:35,560
Speaker 2: you some set piece stuff and win some headers, but

381
00:19:35,680 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 2: he's not on the ball. Ever he doesn't pass and

382
00:19:39,080 --> 00:19:40,879
Speaker 2: he's not even really a great ball winner anymore, Like

383
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,800
Speaker 2: he's taking a step back there. Alvarez is never on

384
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,760
Speaker 2: the ball, never passes. Ward Prowse is like had the

385
00:19:47,760 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 2: most touches in the game against Naniam Forest, but he

386
00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,359
Speaker 2: didn't do anything with them except the set piece stuff,

387
00:19:52,359 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 2: which again, like west Ham is a really difficult team

388
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,159
Speaker 2: right now, because yes they're elite on set pieces. They

389
00:19:58,160 --> 00:20:01,360
Speaker 2: scored twice on set pieces against Donningham Forrest, and it's

390
00:20:01,400 --> 00:20:04,240
Speaker 2: really painful when you're sweating a dog against this west

391
00:20:04,240 --> 00:20:07,200
Speaker 2: Ham team and they just keep trying to get corners.

392
00:20:07,240 --> 00:20:08,600
Speaker 2: I'm not even trying to score, They're just trying to

393
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:10,919
Speaker 2: get corners. And it was evident in the game against

394
00:20:11,200 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 2: Forrest that you know, eventually they got one and they

395
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:15,320
Speaker 2: scored and then they won three two in a game

396
00:20:15,359 --> 00:20:18,280
Speaker 2: that you know, both teams had nineteen penalty touches in

397
00:20:18,359 --> 00:20:22,639
Speaker 2: the box. There was really no difference between the two

398
00:20:22,680 --> 00:20:26,440
Speaker 2: teams in terms of shots or volume. Bowen being out though,

399
00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:30,960
Speaker 2: like he is their best like shot getter, so if

400
00:20:30,960 --> 00:20:33,720
Speaker 2: he's out then they're really stuck because Poketa, you know,

401
00:20:33,760 --> 00:20:35,920
Speaker 2: he plays more out wide. He's their best creator, but

402
00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:38,359
Speaker 2: if he gets stuck out wide and they have this

403
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 2: really non functional midfield, the attack can get kind of

404
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 2: ugly for west Ham and that's why I'm really down

405
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:44,720
Speaker 2: on them, and I am also tempted by Burnley in

406
00:20:44,760 --> 00:20:49,040
Speaker 2: this spot as well. The market had downgraded them a

407
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:52,400
Speaker 2: good bit by my numbers, but they're taking money here,

408
00:20:52,440 --> 00:20:54,360
Speaker 2: so now I'm tempted to hop in as well.

409
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:59,639
Speaker 4: Another barn Burner here, Looton Town hosting Crystal Palace, The

410
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:03,200
Speaker 4: Hatter plus two sixty, Palace plus one ten and the

411
00:21:03,320 --> 00:21:07,159
Speaker 4: Draw plus two thirty. Not too much we need to

412
00:21:07,200 --> 00:21:11,120
Speaker 4: get into here, Anthony En, don't think it's a pass

413
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:12,840
Speaker 4: for me. It looks like a pass across the board.

414
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:16,399
Speaker 2: I mean tempted by the under just like anytime you

415
00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,360
Speaker 2: see Palace Road favorite. Newton have been an active out

416
00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:25,400
Speaker 2: of possession team. They haven't been completely run over even

417
00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:27,720
Speaker 2: with SA and at least say, you know, bit bitting

418
00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:29,520
Speaker 2: back into the betting back into the team, like they're

419
00:21:29,560 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 2: still not creating a Ton like the Everton match was

420
00:21:33,160 --> 00:21:35,399
Speaker 2: kind of wonky and how it progressed because there were

421
00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 2: two goals in the first five minutes, but large touches

422
00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: of that match. There wasn't a ton going on. You know,

423
00:21:41,240 --> 00:21:44,000
Speaker 2: they finished with one point five non pen XG. It

424
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:48,280
Speaker 2: was it was fine. But you know, I just think

425
00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,200
Speaker 2: that anytime you get Palace as a road favorite there,

426
00:21:50,200 --> 00:21:54,359
Speaker 2: you're gonna automatically just tilt toward like probably nothing happens

427
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,720
Speaker 2: in this match, but number being as low as it is,

428
00:21:56,760 --> 00:21:59,639
Speaker 2: I can't really get there on it. So yeah, this

429
00:21:59,680 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 2: is pa for me.

430
00:22:01,200 --> 00:22:05,480
Speaker 1: Uh Forrest now and that was a tough one.

431
00:22:07,040 --> 00:22:09,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, last episode against west Ham.

432
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:09,960
Speaker 3: So yep, that was tough.

433
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,480
Speaker 4: But now they're an underdog and now they're at home.

434
00:22:12,760 --> 00:22:16,640
Speaker 4: They're they're two to one hosting Brighton and Whole Valve

435
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:20,639
Speaker 4: Beyond and we're coming in a plus one twenty. The

436
00:22:20,720 --> 00:22:23,240
Speaker 4: draw here is plus two seventy five. I know, we

437
00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:26,080
Speaker 4: like Forrest at home and we prefer them obviously when

438
00:22:26,080 --> 00:22:31,320
Speaker 4: they're they're an underdog, and it's been ages since Brighton

439
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 4: have won a game. But you know what, one of

440
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:39,119
Speaker 4: the early rallying cries of this podcast BJ, which you'll remember,

441
00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 4: is it's it's by low Brighton, right, and I think

442
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,040
Speaker 4: that that's the time, this is the time to do it. Yep, they,

443
00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:47,159
Speaker 4: like I said, they when's the last time they won

444
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:50,000
Speaker 4: a match they've got it's been.

445
00:22:50,320 --> 00:22:52,200
Speaker 2: Not counting the Europa League, it's been over a month.

446
00:22:52,440 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's it's Europe.

447
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,359
Speaker 4: So their last win was in the Europa League on

448
00:22:56,400 --> 00:22:57,520
Speaker 4: October twenty sixth.

449
00:22:58,640 --> 00:23:00,480
Speaker 1: Oh no, they beat I, right, so.

450
00:23:00,480 --> 00:23:03,800
Speaker 4: Maybe I X twice right born So their last win

451
00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,720
Speaker 4: in the Premier League September twenty fourth.

452
00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:09,320
Speaker 2: Also known as the last time I bet against them?

453
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 1: Boy?

454
00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:13,160
Speaker 2: No, I think I did bet against them one other time.

455
00:23:13,960 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 4: So it's it's been ugly. But the defensive numbers have

456
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,800
Speaker 4: really approved. They have approved.

457
00:23:21,040 --> 00:23:26,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I mean, look, it was never realistic to

458
00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:29,159
Speaker 2: expect them to continue in the Premier League, putting up

459
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,159
Speaker 2: the ridiculous XG that they were and the ridiculous expected

460
00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:33,840
Speaker 2: goals allowed, Like there was always going to be some

461
00:23:33,960 --> 00:23:38,040
Speaker 2: natural regression. But I think Deserve has really dialed it back. Now.

462
00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:42,240
Speaker 2: You could argue that when you're playing Fulham and Sheffield

463
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:48,600
Speaker 2: that's not necessarily the plus EV way to play. They

464
00:23:48,720 --> 00:23:52,560
Speaker 2: ruined our boy, but I think that in this spot,

465
00:23:52,800 --> 00:23:56,160
Speaker 2: like off the break, the fact that Brighton's only plus

466
00:23:56,160 --> 00:23:59,159
Speaker 2: one twenty five here is a little cheap for me.

467
00:23:59,800 --> 00:24:02,320
Speaker 2: I'm a little worried. Ferguson picked up a thigh injury.

468
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:04,280
Speaker 2: Is he and is he gonna play in this? I'm

469
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:04,879
Speaker 2: not so sure.

470
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,359
Speaker 3: But they're so deep if you think about like the

471
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,040
Speaker 3: death that they have and the way they're gonna play.

472
00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,119
Speaker 3: They're gonna they can play Pedro, they can play anti

473
00:24:12,160 --> 00:24:13,480
Speaker 3: Fatty well Beck's out.

474
00:24:13,320 --> 00:24:16,720
Speaker 2: Too, like it's it is a little jerky, but with

475
00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,760
Speaker 2: with well Beeck and Ferguson out because they don't have

476
00:24:18,800 --> 00:24:22,840
Speaker 2: a natural like striker striker. I like Pedro, I like

477
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,920
Speaker 2: obviously love Fati. They get decent shot numbers for midfielders.

478
00:24:27,280 --> 00:24:29,919
Speaker 2: I don't think either of them are striker strikers. So

479
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:32,960
Speaker 2: you know, I have to go to Forest a team

480
00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:35,399
Speaker 2: who's going to play very similarly to what you know

481
00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,719
Speaker 2: Sheffield just did, but better. I don't know. It's all

482
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 2: at tempting.

483
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:44,959
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I think why you're seeing the defensive numbers

484
00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,720
Speaker 3: increase and why Brighton's struggle is because the playbook is

485
00:24:47,760 --> 00:24:50,880
Speaker 3: out on them. Just don't take the bait. They want

486
00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:53,520
Speaker 3: to bait you into pressing. If you don't take the bait,

487
00:24:54,119 --> 00:24:56,560
Speaker 3: then they have kind of struggled. And what Deservey wants

488
00:24:56,600 --> 00:24:58,879
Speaker 3: to do, he wants to play through the middle of

489
00:24:58,920 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 3: the pitch because recently he's been bringing Matoma and a

490
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 3: Drinka inside and essentially been playing a four to two

491
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:08,040
Speaker 3: to two two in build up and just trying to

492
00:25:08,080 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 3: find that space in between the lines, essentially playing like

493
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:13,560
Speaker 3: Anthony said, two midfielders so that they can come back

494
00:25:13,560 --> 00:25:16,080
Speaker 3: and exploit that space and try to find ways through.

495
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:17,360
Speaker 3: And they were able to do that with the first

496
00:25:17,440 --> 00:25:20,880
Speaker 3: goal against Jeffield United, but from that point on they

497
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 3: did struggle with central progression and that is something that

498
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:28,760
Speaker 3: they could struggle with here. But you know, the defensive

499
00:25:28,800 --> 00:25:31,359
Speaker 3: numbers have increased because they're keeping so many people in

500
00:25:31,400 --> 00:25:32,919
Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch and they're able to stop

501
00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,399
Speaker 3: those transition attacks to the middle because if you remember

502
00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:37,640
Speaker 3: in the past, Brighton was building up in a four

503
00:25:37,680 --> 00:25:40,359
Speaker 3: to two four, so they were trying to exploit one

504
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,320
Speaker 3: on ones with Matoma and guys out wide and do

505
00:25:43,359 --> 00:25:46,000
Speaker 3: the overlaps obviously with a stupid on, but nobody was

506
00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:47,480
Speaker 3: in the middle of the pitch and they got exploited

507
00:25:47,520 --> 00:25:49,639
Speaker 3: through the middle. Well, now teams aren't able to do that,

508
00:25:49,840 --> 00:25:53,000
Speaker 3: and I think one reason for that now Lewis dunk

509
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,719
Speaker 3: is going to miss this match, so that's obviously massive.

510
00:25:55,720 --> 00:25:58,400
Speaker 3: He's their best defender. But John Paul van Hecke has

511
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:01,120
Speaker 3: been incredible in the last few starts for them. When

512
00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,159
Speaker 3: he's played, they're only lying around one expected goal for

513
00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 3: ninety and it's no Quinconce. He's come into the team

514
00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:08,000
Speaker 3: recently and I think they've finally found that replacement for

515
00:26:08,080 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 3: Levi Colewell. They were missing drastically in the beginning of

516
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 3: the season and from a price perspective, so this is

517
00:26:14,480 --> 00:26:17,040
Speaker 3: very interesting. Here's a question for you guys. How closely

518
00:26:17,119 --> 00:26:19,560
Speaker 3: rated do you think Aston Villa or Brighton are or

519
00:26:19,600 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 3: do you think one team is clearly better than the other.

520
00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:25,080
Speaker 2: Brighton's marginally right, Yeah, I've downgraded them, but so largely better.

521
00:26:25,160 --> 00:26:28,000
Speaker 3: Yeah. So Aison Villa was minus one ten at Nottingham

522
00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,960
Speaker 3: Forest a couple of weeks ago. Now we're getting Brighton

523
00:26:30,960 --> 00:26:32,360
Speaker 3: at plus one twenty.

524
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:35,360
Speaker 2: I also bet Forrest in that game. Yeah, I think

525
00:26:35,359 --> 00:26:36,280
Speaker 2: you all did.

526
00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,600
Speaker 3: That's the point here is that, yes, Brighton has struggled

527
00:26:39,600 --> 00:26:42,119
Speaker 3: in these type of scenarios, but they definitely have the

528
00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:45,119
Speaker 3: attacking prowess and the ability to play through and the

529
00:26:45,119 --> 00:26:47,879
Speaker 3: defense numbers have been better and Forrest offense, it's just

530
00:26:47,920 --> 00:26:52,199
Speaker 3: one transition attack and that's it basically, because against all

531
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,520
Speaker 3: of the good teams this season, they've I think Arsenal is

532
00:26:54,520 --> 00:26:56,680
Speaker 3: the only team where they've actually created over one expected goal.

533
00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 3: So I don't think Forrest is going to get much

534
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,920
Speaker 3: here transition. So it just comes down to ken Brighton

535
00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:06,080
Speaker 3: break down this little block a couple of times and

536
00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:09,680
Speaker 3: maybe get a goal in. So the sharp play would

537
00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,320
Speaker 3: probably also be under two and a half as well

538
00:27:12,359 --> 00:27:16,879
Speaker 3: at plus money just because of recent results. But I

539
00:27:16,960 --> 00:27:19,320
Speaker 3: really think that the price here on Brighton is far

540
00:27:19,320 --> 00:27:21,760
Speaker 3: too cheap at plus one twenty Sheffield United.

541
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 4: How about this one, Anthony, I think you're the only

542
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:29,480
Speaker 4: one with anything on this beautiful matchup A relegation six

543
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:32,280
Speaker 4: pointer Sheffield United plus two twenty five born myth plus

544
00:27:32,280 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 4: one fifteen in the job plus two fifty. I don't

545
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:40,600
Speaker 4: know how, but you've worked up the gumption to go

546
00:27:40,680 --> 00:27:42,720
Speaker 4: back to the cherries here. Who I mean, they what

547
00:27:43,359 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 4: they'd been better here? But he loves his cherries, this guy,

548
00:27:47,520 --> 00:27:49,720
Speaker 4: I know he does. Yeah, he really does.

549
00:27:50,400 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 3: Well.

550
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:54,880
Speaker 2: You know, here's the thing. I think I thought we'd

551
00:27:54,880 --> 00:27:59,120
Speaker 2: get a better number, to be completely honest, because I expected,

552
00:28:00,200 --> 00:28:02,720
Speaker 2: you know, this being a relegation match with Sheffield at home,

553
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 2: that the market would just kind of priced them right

554
00:28:05,720 --> 00:28:08,000
Speaker 2: around to pick them, with Bournemouth clearly being the better team.

555
00:28:08,520 --> 00:28:10,120
Speaker 2: So the fact that I only get plus one twenty

556
00:28:10,200 --> 00:28:12,879
Speaker 2: five is a little bit less than I would like,

557
00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:15,480
Speaker 2: of course, I mean I'd always want a better number,

558
00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 2: but my projections make Bournemouth plus one fifteen here, so

559
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:23,879
Speaker 2: I am not that far off the market. I just

560
00:28:23,960 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 2: think Sheffield United is not going to offer any resistance

561
00:28:27,359 --> 00:28:30,199
Speaker 2: or pressure or create high turnovers in a way that

562
00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:34,000
Speaker 2: causes problems for Bournemouth, and thus it kind of eliminates

563
00:28:34,040 --> 00:28:37,920
Speaker 2: the biggest issue that Bournemous had all season. There are

564
00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: some positive injury new situations going on for the Cherries here.

565
00:28:42,320 --> 00:28:46,280
Speaker 2: It's still not great, but it's not as bad. They

566
00:28:46,280 --> 00:28:48,720
Speaker 2: still don't have Philip Billing. He has been a key

567
00:28:48,760 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 2: part of their very mediocre midfield this season, so you

568
00:28:52,840 --> 00:28:56,240
Speaker 2: know that's not great. But overall, like they do get

569
00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,480
Speaker 2: most of their first choice defense back here, So I'm

570
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,480
Speaker 2: close on Bornemuth probably will end up not actually betting

571
00:29:03,480 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 2: it because there are better games to bet, as they say,

572
00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,520
Speaker 2: but I think the Cherries here like, just based on

573
00:29:10,560 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 2: preseason priors, I would have laughed at you at the

574
00:29:12,760 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 2: beginning of the season if I could get born with

575
00:29:14,200 --> 00:29:17,720
Speaker 2: plus money against the Sheffield team. And I still have

576
00:29:17,800 --> 00:29:22,240
Speaker 2: faith even if my faith is somewhat waiting in this

577
00:29:22,320 --> 00:29:27,959
Speaker 2: situation right now. I mean, I'm surprised that, like they

578
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 2: haven't fired.

579
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,640
Speaker 3: Him yet, but you got to win though.

580
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:32,880
Speaker 2: He did get a win.

581
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 4: Hey, they're two wins and three for what it's worth. Yeah, yeah,

582
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 4: so I'm saying they are they are, you know, trending

583
00:29:40,120 --> 00:29:40,960
Speaker 4: in the right and they were.

584
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:42,600
Speaker 2: Beating Wolves until the red card, so you know, they

585
00:29:42,640 --> 00:29:44,040
Speaker 2: really could have been three wins and four.

586
00:29:44,800 --> 00:29:49,200
Speaker 4: And look, I mean they're they're now four points clear

587
00:29:49,240 --> 00:29:53,640
Speaker 4: of the relegation spot. The whole game plus multiple games

588
00:29:53,680 --> 00:29:57,440
Speaker 4: because of a particular points deduction.

589
00:29:58,720 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: You mentioned it.

590
00:30:00,400 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 4: There are other games to bet, and I think that

591
00:30:04,680 --> 00:30:07,280
Speaker 4: there are two that we're we've yet to talk about

592
00:30:07,320 --> 00:30:11,240
Speaker 4: that are very, very very fun to bet, including Brentford

593
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 4: as a home underdog plus three seventy five hosting Arsenal

594
00:30:15,440 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 4: coming in at odds and odds on favorite minus one

595
00:30:17,560 --> 00:30:20,760
Speaker 4: thirty eight. The draw here is plus two to seventy five. Boy, BJ,

596
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:22,240
Speaker 4: this one's gonna be tough for you.

597
00:30:22,440 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 3: Yeah, I hope both you lose all your money because

598
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,959
Speaker 3: I know where you're going. I'm passing price and Arsenal's

599
00:30:28,960 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 3: a little inflated, I agree. But what I will say

600
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:37,200
Speaker 3: about Brentford, their past few matches defensively have been a

601
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:41,640
Speaker 3: little concerning. And if you want to look where Arsenal

602
00:30:41,640 --> 00:30:43,400
Speaker 3: creates a lot of their chances, it's out wide and

603
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:47,800
Speaker 3: these one v ones with Sokker and Martinelli. And as

604
00:30:47,840 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 3: of right now, Brentford doesn't have Aaron Hickey and they

605
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:56,400
Speaker 3: don't have Rico Henry available, so that's a little concerning

606
00:30:56,640 --> 00:30:59,040
Speaker 3: when they're trying to defend in those one v ones

607
00:30:59,400 --> 00:31:02,160
Speaker 3: in wide air is. But Brentford in their last three

608
00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:05,480
Speaker 3: matches have conceded around to expected goals to Chelsea, West

609
00:31:05,520 --> 00:31:09,280
Speaker 3: Ham and Liverpool. So now this is going to be

610
00:31:09,400 --> 00:31:11,680
Speaker 3: just if you love ball circulation, that's what you're gonna

611
00:31:11,680 --> 00:31:15,640
Speaker 3: see all match long. Brentford's gonna say passive. Arsenal is

612
00:31:15,640 --> 00:31:17,720
Speaker 3: just going to circulate the ball and just hopefully they

613
00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:20,240
Speaker 3: can get those one v ones and in good areas.

614
00:31:20,280 --> 00:31:26,280
Speaker 3: But if you're a neutral, surestally on Brentford. But I'm

615
00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:27,640
Speaker 3: not a neutral, so I'm not betting it.

616
00:31:28,080 --> 00:31:32,720
Speaker 2: I like the under more than Brentford obviously.

617
00:31:32,720 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 4: I think that the This is a really good spot

618
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 4: to back Brentford at home, uh hosting a Big six club.

619
00:31:42,280 --> 00:31:44,560
Speaker 1: This, this is These are the spots that we we

620
00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:46,600
Speaker 1: do every time we dream about.

621
00:31:46,800 --> 00:31:48,480
Speaker 2: You don't always win. I mean Brentford Puss one and

622
00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:50,320
Speaker 2: a half probably should have won against Liverpool but didn't.

623
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: We don't know he's win. But we win more than

624
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 2: we lose.

625
00:31:53,400 --> 00:31:56,240
Speaker 4: We win more than we lose. And if you look

626
00:31:56,280 --> 00:32:01,360
Speaker 4: at Brentford since that that first international break in September,

627
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:06,200
Speaker 4: it's been a tricky schedule for them. Newcastle in Everton

628
00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:11,920
Speaker 4: side that was finally healthy and improving, and we're just

629
00:32:12,360 --> 00:32:15,719
Speaker 4: due for a big performance. Don't even want to talk

630
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 4: about the EFL Cup. But they played Arsenal United, Chelsea,

631
00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:24,960
Speaker 4: Liverpool and then Forrest, west Ham and Burnley. So I

632
00:32:24,960 --> 00:32:27,720
Speaker 4: think I feel like they've they've played like a really

633
00:32:27,920 --> 00:32:32,320
Speaker 4: diverse group of opponents and and they've done I think

634
00:32:32,320 --> 00:32:35,719
Speaker 4: what what you'd expect out of Brentford, which is they're

635
00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:38,240
Speaker 4: getting results. They'll they'll lose odd game here or there,

636
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:43,840
Speaker 4: but generally everything looks respectable to me they like you

637
00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 4: said that the game against Liverpool was closer than I think.

638
00:32:46,400 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 4: The final score dictates a really nice win against Chelsea.

639
00:32:51,000 --> 00:32:54,200
Speaker 4: Unlucky performance against United, and I know that we all

640
00:32:54,560 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 4: where we all think of United and and and similarly

641
00:32:57,200 --> 00:32:59,680
Speaker 4: away at Newcastle, like they kept it low event and

642
00:32:59,760 --> 00:33:03,080
Speaker 4: tight and tidy and yep. I feel like that's what

643
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 4: we're kind of looking at in a in a game

644
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:07,840
Speaker 4: script here against Arsenal, which is can they turn this

645
00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,200
Speaker 4: match into as close to a coin flip as possible?

646
00:33:10,240 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 4: I said, I trust this team to do that every

647
00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 4: time against these these kind of clubs.

648
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:19,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know, National champion a soccer head coach at Syracuse,

649
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:21,680
Speaker 2: Ian McIntyre always used to love to tell me goals

650
00:33:21,760 --> 00:33:26,320
Speaker 2: change games and that's like one of the best soccer

651
00:33:26,360 --> 00:33:29,960
Speaker 2: coach speak terms of all time. And they do. And

652
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:31,880
Speaker 2: in this game, I don't think a goal changes a

653
00:33:31,920 --> 00:33:36,200
Speaker 2: whole lot because Arsenal playing from behind is going to

654
00:33:36,280 --> 00:33:38,480
Speaker 2: be the same as Arsenal in an even game. Here

655
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,800
Speaker 2: Arsenal playing from ahead Brentford. You know, when they played Liverpool,

656
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:45,280
Speaker 2: Liverpool almost wants you to get into that kind of

657
00:33:45,280 --> 00:33:47,480
Speaker 2: track meet with them, like let's go back and forth,

658
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:49,320
Speaker 2: let's go up and down our but our players are

659
00:33:49,320 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 2: better than yours will beat you. And that's basically what

660
00:33:51,240 --> 00:33:54,240
Speaker 2: happened in the end of the last match. You know,

661
00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:56,760
Speaker 2: Liverpool goes up one nil and then Brentford had a

662
00:33:56,760 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 2: couple of chances, but Liverpool finishes theirs. They win three

663
00:34:00,480 --> 00:34:03,400
Speaker 2: nail going away. Arsenal is the opposite of that. I

664
00:34:03,400 --> 00:34:05,520
Speaker 2: mean they are shutting down every game at every turn,

665
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:08,120
Speaker 2: and you can just look at like this historic defensive

666
00:34:08,200 --> 00:34:10,800
Speaker 2: run that they're on right now. They basically pitched a

667
00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:15,160
Speaker 2: shutout against Seville, they gave up the one shot in

668
00:34:15,239 --> 00:34:19,000
Speaker 2: stoppage time. They basically pitched a shut out against Sheffield.

669
00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:22,320
Speaker 2: They gave up you know, point three XG to Burnley. Sorry,

670
00:34:22,360 --> 00:34:27,040
Speaker 2: BJ you probably had the right bet there. And they

671
00:34:27,520 --> 00:34:29,759
Speaker 2: were dominant against Newcastle. I mean, they conceded one x

672
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 2: G to Newcastle, but almost all of it came on

673
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:36,120
Speaker 2: that controversial play. This was kind of just like a

674
00:34:36,120 --> 00:34:38,880
Speaker 2: broken down attack that led to like a tap it.

675
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:43,480
Speaker 2: So this defense has been historic and I think and

676
00:34:43,520 --> 00:34:49,440
Speaker 2: I think it comes down to Arsenal not optimizing their

677
00:34:49,480 --> 00:34:53,799
Speaker 2: attack and prioritizing control to an extreme extent and not

678
00:34:53,840 --> 00:34:56,880
Speaker 2: getting the most out of like this midfield, which is

679
00:34:56,920 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 2: pretty average going forward and pretty good to offensively, like

680
00:35:00,560 --> 00:35:02,400
Speaker 2: especially with Jacky and Rice breaking up the play, and

681
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:04,320
Speaker 2: like being as good as he is in the in

682
00:35:04,400 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 2: the midfield. So Brandford doesn't want the ball, Arsenal wants it.

683
00:35:09,320 --> 00:35:11,040
Speaker 2: Arsenal keeps it in their final third a lot, they

684
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 2: don't do anything with it. Under two and a half

685
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:15,319
Speaker 2: minus one oh four, I think this game could easily

686
00:35:15,400 --> 00:35:17,799
Speaker 2: end one nil. Arsenal could easily end one to one.

687
00:35:17,960 --> 00:35:21,120
Speaker 2: I just don't really see a ton of attacking quality

688
00:35:21,160 --> 00:35:24,560
Speaker 2: in this Arsenal side right now, beyond Sokka, So I

689
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 2: still think there's questions. It's been like my prevailing theme

690
00:35:27,800 --> 00:35:30,080
Speaker 2: of the podcast all year, and I think this is

691
00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:34,399
Speaker 2: the perfect team to kind of quash and slow down

692
00:35:34,520 --> 00:35:37,560
Speaker 2: this attack. So yeah, the Gunners may win. I think

693
00:35:37,600 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 2: the numbers a little inflated, not as much as usual,

694
00:35:41,480 --> 00:35:44,759
Speaker 2: but I do like the under more so under two

695
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 2: and a half minus one oh four is out there.

696
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,000
Speaker 2: There was some plus money. It has taken some under

697
00:35:49,040 --> 00:35:51,520
Speaker 2: money in the last couple days.

698
00:35:53,520 --> 00:35:56,799
Speaker 4: From BJ's team to Anthony second team Spurs plus one

699
00:35:56,880 --> 00:36:01,440
Speaker 4: thirty hosting aston Villa plus one eighty and the draw

700
00:36:01,600 --> 00:36:04,919
Speaker 4: is plus two eighty here at tottenhams are coming off

701
00:36:05,160 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 4: stadium for who?

702
00:36:07,120 --> 00:36:07,480
Speaker 1: For who?

703
00:36:07,560 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 4: That's the real question, Anthony, My Spurs, Yeah they were.

704
00:36:13,160 --> 00:36:15,120
Speaker 1: We tried to tell you, We tried to tell.

705
00:36:14,920 --> 00:36:19,000
Speaker 4: You that this team was was a little bit smoking mirrors,

706
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:22,560
Speaker 4: but still really good. I think we'll see how far

707
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:30,080
Speaker 4: they fall. Meanwhile, Villa three one and one and uh

708
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:34,560
Speaker 4: in their last five their last but in that last

709
00:36:34,600 --> 00:36:37,680
Speaker 4: in those last five matches, it's I mean, you want

710
00:36:37,719 --> 00:36:38,400
Speaker 4: to talk about.

711
00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 1: A cake schedule. It was Wolves.

712
00:36:41,640 --> 00:36:44,600
Speaker 4: West Ham, who were you know, really really struggling at

713
00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,200
Speaker 4: the time, looton Town, the lost to Forests and then

714
00:36:48,480 --> 00:36:54,640
Speaker 4: uh win at Fulham or win against Fullham. So I

715
00:36:54,680 --> 00:36:56,799
Speaker 4: don't know, and maybe maybe it's just I should just

716
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 4: submit that I can't at this this Phila team right,

717
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 4: and it's been I feel like it's been since Huna

718
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:08,400
Speaker 4: Amory took them over, which is ironic because that via realite,

719
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 4: maybe maybe more money than anybody in a Champions League ever.

720
00:37:13,640 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 4: But I want a bet Spurits. Here is my point, Anthony,

721
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 4: think that this is no, that's not not a not

722
00:37:22,480 --> 00:37:25,319
Speaker 4: a terrible time way take him on.

723
00:37:26,280 --> 00:37:29,880
Speaker 2: I mean, we're not We're not good. We weren't that

724
00:37:29,920 --> 00:37:32,239
Speaker 2: good to begin with, and now we don't have our

725
00:37:32,280 --> 00:37:34,600
Speaker 2: good players. They get a doogie back, but they lose

726
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:39,120
Speaker 2: Pasuma Ah, not gonna have Romero, not gonna have Mickey.

727
00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:45,520
Speaker 2: So like it's a very precarious back line. Who's gonna

728
00:37:45,520 --> 00:37:49,200
Speaker 2: play a ball, but do it against Mussa Dabi and

729
00:37:49,280 --> 00:37:53,560
Speaker 2: Leon Bailey, Like that is a concerning indicator. With that

730
00:37:53,640 --> 00:37:56,279
Speaker 2: being said, I think, you know, this year has been

731
00:37:57,000 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 2: the story of you know, home road Villa has been

732
00:38:01,480 --> 00:38:03,879
Speaker 2: so different, and it's not just results or performances, it's

733
00:38:03,920 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 2: literal play style. How much of the ball are they have,

734
00:38:06,760 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 2: do they have, how much are they pressing? What's their

735
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:13,520
Speaker 2: shot allowed numbers? Like they're so different when they've been

736
00:38:13,520 --> 00:38:15,399
Speaker 2: at home and they've been able to kind of beat

737
00:38:15,480 --> 00:38:17,319
Speaker 2: up on these bad teams, whereas when they've gone on

738
00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:20,359
Speaker 2: the road against any quality opposition and gotten their their

739
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:22,279
Speaker 2: their shit kicked in, like they have not been good

740
00:38:22,760 --> 00:38:26,480
Speaker 2: even at Forrest. You know, So I don't really want

741
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,960
Speaker 2: to bet them either, and thus I will pass. But

742
00:38:30,120 --> 00:38:32,680
Speaker 2: the injury situation at Spurs is really dire and no

743
00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:37,040
Speaker 2: pun intended, and they they really they really did I'm

744
00:38:37,040 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 2: gonna start using that intentionally now, but they really don't

745
00:38:40,360 --> 00:38:43,319
Speaker 2: have any solutions like Madison being out. Benten Kerr comes in,

746
00:38:43,320 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 2: but he's fresh off a major knee injury and he's

747
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 2: not as good as creation as Madison. Uh, there's not

748
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:53,280
Speaker 2: enough shots now. Son is the only guy for Charlton

749
00:38:53,320 --> 00:38:55,799
Speaker 2: being out. Kolosseevsky's not like a shot monster guy, so

750
00:38:56,480 --> 00:38:59,840
Speaker 2: it's just kind of a broken team. They scored a

751
00:39:00,040 --> 00:39:03,600
Speaker 2: great goal early on against Wolves and then did nothing,

752
00:39:04,400 --> 00:39:06,439
Speaker 2: nothing for the entirety of the rest of the match

753
00:39:06,880 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 2: and got very lucky. I mean, Wolves won the match

754
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:12,120
Speaker 2: and you know, the last ten to five minutes, but

755
00:39:12,160 --> 00:39:14,560
Speaker 2: they really could have lost it. I won it before

756
00:39:14,600 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 2: that with how many chances they created, so I leaned

757
00:39:18,800 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 2: toward the under as well. But I don't really want

758
00:39:21,000 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 2: to trust this defense either, So I'm passing no bet.

759
00:39:24,440 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 2: But if I had to bet, i'd write with bj.

760
00:39:27,320 --> 00:39:30,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking Aston Villa drawing O bet plus one

761
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 3: point fifteen. The injury situation is die is yeah, for

762
00:39:33,840 --> 00:39:39,719
Speaker 3: lack of better work, dire but the real problem of

763
00:39:39,800 --> 00:39:42,879
Speaker 3: not just that Ben Davis and Eric Dyer are worst

764
00:39:42,880 --> 00:39:46,040
Speaker 3: defenders than Romero and Van Derven. It's the fact that

765
00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:49,000
Speaker 3: when Tottenham, because they're probably gonna have a majority of

766
00:39:49,000 --> 00:39:50,719
Speaker 3: the ball in this match, Aston Villa is probably gonna

767
00:39:50,719 --> 00:39:53,000
Speaker 3: can see a lot of possession to them. It's when

768
00:39:53,040 --> 00:39:55,880
Speaker 3: Tottenham loses the ball when they're building up in a

769
00:39:55,880 --> 00:39:58,480
Speaker 3: two three five that leaves a lot of space out

770
00:39:58,480 --> 00:40:01,759
Speaker 3: wide for one v one sit situations, and Vanda Ven

771
00:40:01,840 --> 00:40:04,799
Speaker 3: and Romeiro are really really good at covering space and

772
00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:09,000
Speaker 3: being good defenders in those type of situations. Watkins and

773
00:40:09,040 --> 00:40:13,560
Speaker 3: Diabi against Davies and Dyer is a very very bad

774
00:40:13,600 --> 00:40:15,880
Speaker 3: situation for Tottenham that I don't think they have a

775
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:18,560
Speaker 3: solution for. And listen post to Koglu is not just

776
00:40:18,600 --> 00:40:21,080
Speaker 3: going to switch his idealisms and just sit back in

777
00:40:21,080 --> 00:40:22,520
Speaker 3: a little block and hand the ball to the Villa

778
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,560
Speaker 3: and say all right, try to break us down. He's

779
00:40:24,600 --> 00:40:26,480
Speaker 3: going to play a high line. He's going to press

780
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:28,920
Speaker 3: like they did that against Wolves even when they were ahead.

781
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:33,120
Speaker 2: So with nine men right, The.

782
00:40:33,120 --> 00:40:37,360
Speaker 3: Question here for Tottenham because when has Villa struggled the

783
00:40:37,360 --> 00:40:39,960
Speaker 3: most this season when they played Liverpool and they played

784
00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,160
Speaker 3: Newcastle and they got absolutely beat up and build up

785
00:40:42,200 --> 00:40:45,080
Speaker 3: play and turn the ball over constantly high So if

786
00:40:45,080 --> 00:40:48,359
Speaker 3: you truly believe that Tottenham's press is elite because they're

787
00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 3: number one passive per defensive action right now. If you

788
00:40:50,320 --> 00:40:52,759
Speaker 3: truly believe that they are elite and that they can

789
00:40:52,760 --> 00:40:56,120
Speaker 3: disrupt Villa's build up play, then you can make a

790
00:40:56,160 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 3: case for them. But I don't think given the players

791
00:40:58,400 --> 00:41:02,239
Speaker 3: that they have available, especially not Thesuma, that they have

792
00:41:02,320 --> 00:41:05,560
Speaker 3: the personnel to be able to press aston Villa effectively

793
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:09,960
Speaker 3: out of possession. So I do like Villa plus one

794
00:41:10,000 --> 00:41:15,520
Speaker 3: fifteen here on the road. Again, the two worst defensive

795
00:41:15,560 --> 00:41:18,440
Speaker 3: pormances that they've had this season were against Newcastle Liverpool.

796
00:41:18,680 --> 00:41:20,919
Speaker 3: You take away those two matches, they're only conceding about

797
00:41:20,960 --> 00:41:23,560
Speaker 3: one expectacle for ninety minutes and have only conceded five

798
00:41:23,560 --> 00:41:27,799
Speaker 3: big scoring chances in their other ten matches. So I

799
00:41:27,800 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 3: think this is a good spot to keep fading Tottenham.

800
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:32,120
Speaker 1: It was good.

801
00:41:32,160 --> 00:41:34,360
Speaker 3: You know what was good is the fact is that

802
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,000
Speaker 3: Wolves had to play very aggressively because they went down

803
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:40,160
Speaker 3: so early, and if aston Villa it was a very

804
00:41:40,280 --> 00:41:44,279
Speaker 3: tactically tactically flexible team that can press, that can sit

805
00:41:44,360 --> 00:41:46,399
Speaker 3: back deep, can do a lot of different things. Well,

806
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 3: it's a really good match up here for Astonville. Even

807
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:51,160
Speaker 3: if they are on the road, so I like do

808
00:41:51,239 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 3: like them drawn o Bett at plus one fifteen.

809
00:41:54,200 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 4: Game of the week time, Oh yeah, perhaps game of

810
00:41:57,560 --> 00:41:57,919
Speaker 4: the year.

811
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:00,839
Speaker 2: Everden bought of the year. Motivational spot of the year.

812
00:42:00,920 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 1: Yeah. Can you imagine the type of thing that you

813
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:06,279
Speaker 1: you hear.

814
00:42:06,200 --> 00:42:08,320
Speaker 4: It all the time on in college football if you

815
00:42:08,360 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 4: listen to BBOC or I guess, and it's a thing,

816
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 4: I'm sure, and uh in other sports, I'm maybe outside

817
00:42:17,040 --> 00:42:22,280
Speaker 4: of Major League Baseball, where I don't think it motivation

818
00:42:22,440 --> 00:42:28,480
Speaker 4: matters really at all. Yeah, Everdon gets deducted ten points

819
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:33,799
Speaker 4: over the international break. They were playing so well they

820
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:39,480
Speaker 4: were left the relegation scrap in its rear view mirror

821
00:42:39,880 --> 00:42:42,840
Speaker 4: for the first time in two years. They've you know,

822
00:42:42,920 --> 00:42:48,000
Speaker 4: some safety in season. Safety was achieved and that's all got.

823
00:42:48,200 --> 00:42:52,160
Speaker 4: We'll see where this all ends up. But it does

824
00:42:52,320 --> 00:42:55,919
Speaker 4: feel funny that it so you said it, motivational spot

825
00:42:55,960 --> 00:42:57,399
Speaker 4: of the year. Don't don't need to get too deep

826
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 4: into a team getting deducted at ten points right away.

827
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:03,000
Speaker 4: There's motivation built in. But the fact that they're also

828
00:43:03,040 --> 00:43:06,960
Speaker 4: playing a Big six side I think kind of adds

829
00:43:06,960 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 4: to it a little bit. Considering that United was one

830
00:43:09,160 --> 00:43:12,880
Speaker 4: of the six teams that tried to destroy the Premier

831
00:43:12,960 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 4: League all not that long ago and wasn't didn't face

832
00:43:16,640 --> 00:43:21,160
Speaker 4: any point deductions from that. They also and they also

833
00:43:21,160 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 4: get a United team that has frankly just been in

834
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:26,040
Speaker 4: shambles all year too. So you're going into it, You're

835
00:43:26,040 --> 00:43:31,560
Speaker 4: gonna go into a bear pit on Sunday at Goodison Park.

836
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 4: Not the team I'd want to go into said bear pit.

837
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:39,239
Speaker 4: Maybe the last team I'd want to go into said

838
00:43:39,239 --> 00:43:43,040
Speaker 4: bear pit in the entire league. And before I hand

839
00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:44,720
Speaker 4: it over to you too, I mean, I like evertt

840
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 4: in here. I'll talk about it and now I'll talk

841
00:43:46,360 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 4: about it later. United is one of just proably four

842
00:43:52,680 --> 00:43:56,360
Speaker 4: teams in the Premier League right now, five team excuse me,

843
00:43:56,840 --> 00:44:01,880
Speaker 4: that has that doesn't have a single play with at

844
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 4: least four goals on its roster. And I think that

845
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:07,319
Speaker 4: that is important to note because when you have as

846
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:12,720
Speaker 4: many problems as United does defensively, what is the tonic

847
00:44:13,120 --> 00:44:15,160
Speaker 4: for those issues. It's having a game winner, someone who

848
00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:17,880
Speaker 4: you can just get the ball, let them create some

849
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:20,239
Speaker 4: magic and and and rescue you from trouble and some

850
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:21,880
Speaker 4: and and they're still finding a way to do it

851
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,680
Speaker 4: by the way more often than not through Scott mcdommanay

852
00:44:25,719 --> 00:44:27,919
Speaker 4: of all people, more than.

853
00:44:27,840 --> 00:44:28,920
Speaker 2: Anyone going to start again.

854
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:34,280
Speaker 4: Yeah, but it's it's yeah United's injury list.

855
00:44:33,920 --> 00:44:36,919
Speaker 2: Everdon, I think they have the most injuries in the lad.

856
00:44:36,880 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, ever Everdon may be the healthiest team. And this

857
00:44:40,840 --> 00:44:43,799
Speaker 4: going into the weekend at United is uh probably the

858
00:44:43,800 --> 00:44:48,960
Speaker 4: one with with the biggest crisis of roster decisions. So

859
00:44:49,360 --> 00:44:51,680
Speaker 4: Everton is plus one eighty right now at home. This

860
00:44:51,840 --> 00:44:54,839
Speaker 4: number has kind of been bouncing around between not too

861
00:44:54,920 --> 00:44:58,439
Speaker 4: much uh movement over the past a couple of days,

862
00:44:58,440 --> 00:45:01,960
Speaker 4: but I think Evert is and end up taking money here, Antony.

863
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:04,880
Speaker 3: They should be the favorite, agreed.

864
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:13,879
Speaker 2: Yeah, Hoyland probably out Onnana fifty to fifty, Ericson out,

865
00:45:13,960 --> 00:45:18,759
Speaker 2: Casimiro out, Martinez out. So that's like the entire spot

866
00:45:18,800 --> 00:45:22,400
Speaker 2: of the team except Bruno and the wingers haven't been

867
00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:25,920
Speaker 2: good all year. There's like real questions about like what

868
00:45:26,080 --> 00:45:28,880
Speaker 2: is this team going to look like? Because I thought

869
00:45:29,440 --> 00:45:34,239
Speaker 2: you could squint, like really hard and say, well, you know,

870
00:45:34,280 --> 00:45:36,960
Speaker 2: they played a really good opening half hour against Copenhagen

871
00:45:37,360 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 2: for the red card, and then you could say, well,

872
00:45:40,040 --> 00:45:43,800
Speaker 2: Newton Town at home probably the second or third easiest

873
00:45:43,800 --> 00:45:47,080
Speaker 2: fixture they'll have all year. Was a really good performance

874
00:45:47,120 --> 00:45:50,760
Speaker 2: because for the first time they truly consistently out created

875
00:45:50,840 --> 00:45:54,240
Speaker 2: and dominated an opponent. But now they lose the striker

876
00:45:54,239 --> 00:45:58,759
Speaker 2: who had really led those moments and finally gotten some

877
00:45:58,800 --> 00:46:03,560
Speaker 2: shots and goals against Copenhagen and against Lowton. They lose him.

878
00:46:03,920 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 2: They lose the goalie who had been better with shots

879
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:11,040
Speaker 2: stopping in the last month after a pretty rocky start.

880
00:46:12,360 --> 00:46:16,680
Speaker 2: Their main distributor out from the back is out. Johnny

881
00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:20,759
Speaker 2: Evans is questionable. Now their defense went to shambles once

882
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:24,240
Speaker 2: he went out. They don't have any good build up players,

883
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:27,759
Speaker 2: not one in the whole team mcdonmm and a in

884
00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:31,240
Speaker 2: the midfield like doesn't get on the ball a lot,

885
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:36,279
Speaker 2: he doesn't really pass and like Lindeloff, Van has been

886
00:46:36,320 --> 00:46:39,640
Speaker 2: a shell of himself this year. Like this group, Luke

887
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:41,640
Speaker 2: Shaw may also probably still going to be out too.

888
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 2: So the entire ball progression plan is could put. And

889
00:46:46,120 --> 00:46:49,040
Speaker 2: now you're playing on Everton team that has the capability

890
00:46:49,600 --> 00:46:51,759
Speaker 2: to get in your face and turn you over high

891
00:46:51,840 --> 00:46:55,640
Speaker 2: and create scoring chances off of that. So I get that,

892
00:46:55,760 --> 00:46:58,320
Speaker 2: Like you know, United has more talent at the club

893
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 2: and that's why they're they're the favorite on the road here.

894
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:04,320
Speaker 2: But like the players on the pitch that have played

895
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:09,560
Speaker 2: this season, these teams have been about even and given

896
00:47:09,600 --> 00:47:13,399
Speaker 2: the injuries keep getting worse for United Everton, you could

897
00:47:13,480 --> 00:47:15,719
Speaker 2: argue is the better team right now, and they're at

898
00:47:15,719 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 2: home and they're a dog, So yeah, toffees again and

899
00:47:20,200 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 2: and and you throw in that the I'm not much

900
00:47:23,360 --> 00:47:24,400
Speaker 2: of a motivation.

901
00:47:24,040 --> 00:47:26,879
Speaker 4: Person, but like, yeah, no, there are times this is.

902
00:47:26,800 --> 00:47:30,719
Speaker 2: One of those spots where it's like, well, the league

903
00:47:30,760 --> 00:47:33,720
Speaker 2: just screwed us. Now we're at home off the break,

904
00:47:34,719 --> 00:47:37,040
Speaker 2: Let's let's go screw them back, you know, show them.

905
00:47:37,320 --> 00:47:40,520
Speaker 2: So I did love the Sean dicee memes that were

906
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:42,440
Speaker 2: coming at it was like, Sean Dice is like the

907
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:46,040
Speaker 2: guy who told his landlord to raise his rent because

908
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:48,000
Speaker 2: he wants to destroy. He wants to embrace the struggle

909
00:47:48,360 --> 00:47:49,000
Speaker 2: with the grind.

910
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:53,840
Speaker 4: I meant you'd be hard pressed to find them like

911
00:47:53,880 --> 00:47:59,239
Speaker 4: a a more appropriate manager and a bunch of yeah.

912
00:47:59,239 --> 00:48:02,080
Speaker 1: Like it was almost I haven't.

913
00:48:01,840 --> 00:48:03,680
Speaker 2: Seen his comments on it yet, but I'm sure he'll

914
00:48:03,719 --> 00:48:06,360
Speaker 2: be asked about it post or pre match on Saturday.

915
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:07,920
Speaker 2: And I can't wait to see, you know, his his

916
00:48:08,000 --> 00:48:11,359
Speaker 2: like raspy, raggedy voice. It's gonna be awesome. But yes,

917
00:48:11,440 --> 00:48:15,319
Speaker 2: no Everton, Everton for sure, and the first of two

918
00:48:15,440 --> 00:48:16,960
Speaker 2: United fades for me in the same week. If you

919
00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 2: follow me in the action app, I bet Everton and

920
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:21,920
Speaker 2: Galatasaray like three or four weeks ago because there were

921
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,560
Speaker 2: some really bad openers. It's time to cash those tickets

922
00:48:25,640 --> 00:48:29,439
Speaker 2: because I believe we've gotten the world famous closing line

923
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:30,520
Speaker 2: value on them.

924
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:31,160
Speaker 3: B J.

925
00:48:31,320 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 4: Well, I'm gonna hand it to you in a second too.

926
00:48:33,120 --> 00:48:36,359
Speaker 4: But I kind of want to add here that it's

927
00:48:37,080 --> 00:48:40,600
Speaker 4: it's really not a bad game, and I don't want

928
00:48:40,600 --> 00:48:42,719
Speaker 4: to make a loser out of a winner here, but

929
00:48:43,880 --> 00:48:46,560
Speaker 4: it's not a bad game to back an Everdon route

930
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 4: because there's absolutely a situation here where Everton just storms them.

931
00:48:53,960 --> 00:48:57,720
Speaker 4: As Anthony said, like the rosters is threadbare for United.

932
00:48:57,760 --> 00:48:59,840
Speaker 4: This is not Manchester United coming to Goodis And this

933
00:48:59,880 --> 00:49:03,040
Speaker 4: is like Manchester United be coming to you to go

934
00:49:03,160 --> 00:49:03,840
Speaker 4: Toson Park.

935
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,080
Speaker 2: And Marsha all starting up top probably right right, yeah.

936
00:49:07,080 --> 00:49:08,880
Speaker 3: I mean, And the other thing about it is is

937
00:49:09,640 --> 00:49:12,120
Speaker 3: you mentioned off the top, Michael, where they don't have

938
00:49:12,200 --> 00:49:14,080
Speaker 3: this game where they can go get it. Well, last

939
00:49:14,160 --> 00:49:17,399
Speaker 3: year that was Rashford who overformed at a historic rate,

940
00:49:18,000 --> 00:49:22,480
Speaker 3: and now he's not and you're seeing the problem. Yeah,

941
00:49:22,520 --> 00:49:24,799
Speaker 3: and now you're seeing the problems that Manchester United have

942
00:49:25,440 --> 00:49:27,799
Speaker 3: that they just don't have anybody to break it down.

943
00:49:27,840 --> 00:49:30,600
Speaker 3: So I don't think it really matters what Everton decides

944
00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:33,560
Speaker 3: to do, because Everton has shown that if they want

945
00:49:33,560 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 3: to sit back and they don't want to press and

946
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:36,719
Speaker 3: they want to send a little block, that they are

947
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:39,399
Speaker 3: incredibly effective at doing that. So they could sit back

948
00:49:39,440 --> 00:49:41,000
Speaker 3: and they could just say, you know what, you're not

949
00:49:41,000 --> 00:49:44,720
Speaker 3: playing through us United. And like Anthony mentioned, if United

950
00:49:44,760 --> 00:49:48,160
Speaker 3: decides that, listen, we have no good build up players,

951
00:49:48,200 --> 00:49:50,040
Speaker 3: so let's just play root one football, let's send the

952
00:49:50,040 --> 00:49:52,160
Speaker 3: ball deep, and let's play in transition. Then you're playing

953
00:49:52,200 --> 00:49:55,720
Speaker 3: a transition game with Everton, who is unbelievable in transition.

954
00:49:56,520 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 3: So there's really no method here for United unless they

955
00:49:59,560 --> 00:50:03,440
Speaker 3: pull off on these magical wins again. Additionally, it looks

956
00:50:03,440 --> 00:50:06,120
Speaker 3: like Aaron Wan Desakham also might be out for United,

957
00:50:06,400 --> 00:50:09,880
Speaker 3: who is their best wide defender, which means that United

958
00:50:09,920 --> 00:50:14,279
Speaker 3: will have to defend with Reggion or probably Dallo as

959
00:50:14,280 --> 00:50:17,399
Speaker 3: their two wide area guys and how does Everton create

960
00:50:17,440 --> 00:50:20,240
Speaker 3: all of their chances? Mainly it's through crosses and getting

961
00:50:20,239 --> 00:50:23,120
Speaker 3: out ball out wide. So it's a yeah, it's just

962
00:50:23,160 --> 00:50:25,400
Speaker 3: a really good spot here to back Everton. They again,

963
00:50:25,840 --> 00:50:28,800
Speaker 3: like Anthey said, the players that are currently on the pitch,

964
00:50:29,560 --> 00:50:32,439
Speaker 3: Everton is a better team than Manchester United and they're

965
00:50:32,480 --> 00:50:38,160
Speaker 3: at home. So crazy line Everton, John Obatt plus one fifteen.

966
00:50:38,520 --> 00:50:42,239
Speaker 4: Kind of feels like a letdown to wrap up with

967
00:50:42,239 --> 00:50:43,719
Speaker 4: with this next game on Monday night.

968
00:50:43,800 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 1: I shouldn't mention this.

969
00:50:45,320 --> 00:50:48,920
Speaker 4: Yes, Spurs Spurs, the Spurs match and Everton matcher and

970
00:50:48,960 --> 00:50:54,160
Speaker 4: Sunday this one Fulham and Wolves at Craven Cottage Monday

971
00:50:54,200 --> 00:50:57,600
Speaker 4: Night football with Fulham at plus one third thirty seven

972
00:50:57,840 --> 00:51:01,000
Speaker 4: Wolverhampton plus two hundred and the draw is plus two

973
00:51:01,040 --> 00:51:08,520
Speaker 4: thirty And as you heard from the wandering wolve around here,

974
00:51:09,800 --> 00:51:11,200
Speaker 4: this one looks like it's it's.

975
00:51:11,040 --> 00:51:11,640
Speaker 1: Three for three.

976
00:51:12,760 --> 00:51:17,840
Speaker 4: Gary o'neils rambunctious Wolves making their way to the to

977
00:51:17,920 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 4: the middle of the table here. Good good for them. Yeah,

978
00:51:21,239 --> 00:51:24,399
Speaker 4: I mean this is uh, this looks like a great

979
00:51:24,400 --> 00:51:26,080
Speaker 4: spot to back Wolves BJ Yeah, I.

980
00:51:26,080 --> 00:51:29,040
Speaker 3: Mean Gary O'Neill is just turning Wolves into that best

981
00:51:29,120 --> 00:51:31,239
Speaker 3: version of that Brent of the Bournemouth team that we

982
00:51:31,280 --> 00:51:33,520
Speaker 3: saw last season, a team that is good in transition,

983
00:51:34,120 --> 00:51:38,040
Speaker 3: good on set pieces, and can play well defensively in

984
00:51:38,080 --> 00:51:43,680
Speaker 3: a low block. And quite honestly, I know Fulham's at home,

985
00:51:44,520 --> 00:51:46,400
Speaker 3: but I don't think there is a scenario where they

986
00:51:46,400 --> 00:51:49,360
Speaker 3: should be a home favorite without Paulina in the middle

987
00:51:49,360 --> 00:51:53,000
Speaker 3: of the pitch. Given what they have done offensively this season,

988
00:51:53,040 --> 00:51:55,640
Speaker 3: which is next to nothing. They're going to have to

989
00:51:55,640 --> 00:51:57,800
Speaker 3: start ral Jamanez up top of and who did score

990
00:51:58,480 --> 00:52:03,359
Speaker 3: when they were down three against aston Villa. So gratsta Raljmenez.

991
00:52:04,560 --> 00:52:05,680
Speaker 1: Prevention spot here too.

992
00:52:07,560 --> 00:52:13,360
Speaker 3: True. That is true, Michael, but it's just so clear

993
00:52:13,440 --> 00:52:16,720
Speaker 3: right now for Fulham that when they are playing because

994
00:52:16,719 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 3: they typically do concede a lot of possession, so when

995
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:21,759
Speaker 3: they're playing teams that will possess the ball more, they

996
00:52:21,760 --> 00:52:25,000
Speaker 3: are playing a very very narrow defensive shape to limit

997
00:52:25,080 --> 00:52:27,760
Speaker 3: central progression and they've done a pretty good job of it, honestly.

998
00:52:28,320 --> 00:52:31,120
Speaker 3: But when they win the ball, they used to be

999
00:52:31,160 --> 00:52:33,279
Speaker 3: able to get the ball wide and send it into

1000
00:52:33,960 --> 00:52:37,279
Speaker 3: t Mitrovic. They just don't have anybody in the middle

1001
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:38,520
Speaker 3: of the pitch to be able to do that, and

1002
00:52:38,560 --> 00:52:41,000
Speaker 3: they are not good at playing the ball centrally through

1003
00:52:41,040 --> 00:52:44,040
Speaker 3: the middle, and they also keep trying to play out

1004
00:52:44,080 --> 00:52:47,279
Speaker 3: of the back and it has not been successful whatsoever.

1005
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 3: So Wolves can turn them over high. They can cause

1006
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 3: a lot of problems if Fulham decides they want to

1007
00:52:53,160 --> 00:52:56,160
Speaker 3: try to build out of the back, and without Paulinya,

1008
00:52:56,360 --> 00:52:58,719
Speaker 3: you're losing your best ball stopper in the middle of

1009
00:52:58,760 --> 00:53:01,640
Speaker 3: the pitch and you literally have nobody else who can

1010
00:53:01,680 --> 00:53:04,000
Speaker 3: stop Wolves if they want to get go forward and

1011
00:53:04,000 --> 00:53:09,160
Speaker 3: transition opportunities. Paulina has sixty three tackles plus interceptions this season.

1012
00:53:09,520 --> 00:53:13,480
Speaker 3: The next closest midfielder on Fulham doesn't even have fifteen,

1013
00:53:13,960 --> 00:53:15,759
Speaker 3: Like that's how much of a difference it is when

1014
00:53:15,880 --> 00:53:19,799
Speaker 3: he is not on the pitch. So and Wolves. There

1015
00:53:19,880 --> 00:53:22,640
Speaker 3: is looks like a slight chance that Pedro Netto might

1016
00:53:22,680 --> 00:53:24,840
Speaker 3: be back for this match, which would obviously be massive,

1017
00:53:25,000 --> 00:53:28,040
Speaker 3: But even if he doesn't play, he Chen Hwang has

1018
00:53:28,080 --> 00:53:31,160
Speaker 3: been really really good this season point five to four

1019
00:53:31,200 --> 00:53:34,319
Speaker 3: actually plus expected says per ninety minute rate. Very good

1020
00:53:34,360 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 3: attacker and quite honestly, what we're worried about with Wolves

1021
00:53:38,239 --> 00:53:40,320
Speaker 3: coming into the middle of the season was their midfield

1022
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:44,000
Speaker 3: because they lost News, they lost Nunyes, they lost Mattino,

1023
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 3: and this midfield of Gomes and Lamina has been better

1024
00:53:48,719 --> 00:53:51,400
Speaker 3: in terms of ball stopping perspective. They're getting more tackles

1025
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:54,480
Speaker 3: and interceptions per ninety than the News and whatever combination

1026
00:53:54,520 --> 00:53:59,200
Speaker 3: they were using last season. So I really don't think

1027
00:53:59,200 --> 00:54:02,279
Speaker 3: Fulham should be a home favorite here. I really am

1028
00:54:02,280 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 3: believing in Gary O'Neil and this Wolve's team, who was

1029
00:54:04,760 --> 00:54:08,600
Speaker 3: again turning into the best version of that Bournemouth team

1030
00:54:08,600 --> 00:54:10,200
Speaker 3: that we saw in the second half of the season.

1031
00:54:10,320 --> 00:54:13,320
Speaker 3: So I think Gary O'Neil's team right now is a

1032
00:54:13,360 --> 00:54:15,239
Speaker 3: really good buy on team and this is a really

1033
00:54:15,239 --> 00:54:17,160
Speaker 3: good spot for them here on Monday night on the road.

1034
00:54:17,280 --> 00:54:20,400
Speaker 3: So I like them. Jon o Bett at plus one twenty.

1035
00:54:20,600 --> 00:54:22,560
Speaker 2: Wolves have gone over four straight games.

1036
00:54:22,840 --> 00:54:23,040
Speaker 3: Yep.

1037
00:54:23,480 --> 00:54:26,880
Speaker 2: Have I bet any of them? No, In fact I

1038
00:54:26,920 --> 00:54:30,360
Speaker 2: had the under ones. But yeah, I mean this this

1039
00:54:30,440 --> 00:54:34,200
Speaker 2: Wolves attack is quietly cooking. I mean even without Nato

1040
00:54:34,320 --> 00:54:37,120
Speaker 2: last week two point one extually against Spurs. I thought

1041
00:54:37,120 --> 00:54:42,040
Speaker 2: they were good against Sheffield, not great, but yeah, this

1042
00:54:42,120 --> 00:54:45,600
Speaker 2: Fulham defense still is mediocre and their attack is useless.

1043
00:54:45,600 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 2: They get Munies, he shows some life, not much, and

1044
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:50,200
Speaker 2: then he gets hurt, so we're back to you know,

1045
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 2: one shot per game row Woul and I just really

1046
00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: don't see any advantages whatsoever for Fulham that make them

1047
00:54:57,080 --> 00:54:59,759
Speaker 2: a favorite. So yeah, I agree. I'm on Wolves as well.

1048
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:05,400
Speaker 4: Oh oh uh yeah, three for three Outwolves. Not too

1049
00:55:05,480 --> 00:55:09,120
Speaker 4: much to add there. All right, we'll go into the

1050
00:55:09,120 --> 00:55:11,359
Speaker 4: rest of Europe real quick. But before I do that,

1051
00:55:11,719 --> 00:55:15,439
Speaker 4: it's time to pay some bills. And what better time

1052
00:55:15,480 --> 00:55:17,200
Speaker 4: to do that than right around the holidays. It's right

1053
00:55:17,200 --> 00:55:19,920
Speaker 4: the holiday season. It's right around the corner, and it's

1054
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:22,520
Speaker 4: about to get pretty busy, But don't let that stop

1055
00:55:22,560 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 4: you from sticking to your habits and being the best

1056
00:55:24,719 --> 00:55:27,480
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1057
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1075
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Speaker 4: bjay onto the Bundesliga. I can't let Anthony go first

1076
00:56:23,920 --> 00:56:27,920
Speaker 4: here because he's about to take us on an adventure.

1077
00:56:28,000 --> 00:56:31,080
Speaker 3: So yeah, which year, I'll just be quick one. I'm

1078
00:56:31,080 --> 00:56:33,240
Speaker 3: gonna go with a relegation six pointer. I like Bochum

1079
00:56:33,320 --> 00:56:36,880
Speaker 3: plus a half a minus one fifty against Heidenheim. Heidenheim

1080
00:56:37,200 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 3: is one of the worst defensive teams that I've seen

1081
00:56:39,320 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 3: in recent memory come up to any of these Big

1082
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:44,000
Speaker 3: five leagues. There's only been two matches this season where

1083
00:56:44,000 --> 00:56:46,160
Speaker 3: they've held an opponent under two expected goals, lying around

1084
00:56:46,160 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 3: two and a half for ninety and this Boca team

1085
00:56:49,280 --> 00:56:52,160
Speaker 3: is quietly improving over their last three matches they've held Minds,

1086
00:56:52,200 --> 00:56:57,600
Speaker 3: Darmstad and Cologne all under one expected goal, and quite frankly,

1087
00:56:57,640 --> 00:57:00,319
Speaker 3: Heidenheim hasn't won the expected goals battle in any of

1088
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,400
Speaker 3: their matches this season. So I don't see a scenario

1089
00:57:02,400 --> 00:57:05,200
Speaker 3: why they should be a home plus one twenty favorite.

1090
00:57:05,239 --> 00:57:07,880
Speaker 3: So I like pokem plus a half a minus one fifty.

1091
00:57:08,480 --> 00:57:09,840
Speaker 4: All right, Anthony floor is yours?

1092
00:57:10,200 --> 00:57:12,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I got a couple of bets Wolfsburg plus a

1093
00:57:12,480 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 2: half at home against Leipzig. I think, you know, I

1094
00:57:15,280 --> 00:57:17,120
Speaker 2: gave Leipsig the benefit of the doubt early in the

1095
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,840
Speaker 2: season because their numbers they were running ridiculously hot. They've

1096
00:57:19,880 --> 00:57:22,720
Speaker 2: been the most fortunate team from a finishing perspective in

1097
00:57:22,760 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 2: all of Europe. But they're just really not that good

1098
00:57:24,680 --> 00:57:27,160
Speaker 2: and that's kind of born out in the numbers in

1099
00:57:27,280 --> 00:57:30,920
Speaker 2: their Champions League where they were largely uncompetitive with City.

1100
00:57:31,480 --> 00:57:33,760
Speaker 2: In you know, some of their league matches where you know,

1101
00:57:33,760 --> 00:57:37,280
Speaker 2: they got outplayed by Mines, they got outplayed by Darmstat,

1102
00:57:37,680 --> 00:57:40,760
Speaker 2: we're pretty even with Freiburg until the penalty late, like

1103
00:57:41,160 --> 00:57:43,240
Speaker 2: weren't great against Bayern except for the part where they

1104
00:57:43,240 --> 00:57:44,960
Speaker 2: scored the first two shots. So it kind of throws

1105
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,560
Speaker 2: everything off. We're seeing now though that when Leipzig's been

1106
00:57:47,560 --> 00:57:49,400
Speaker 2: an even game states, they have not been very good

1107
00:57:50,080 --> 00:57:51,800
Speaker 2: and so I think we have to downgrade them. And

1108
00:57:51,840 --> 00:57:53,800
Speaker 2: I think the market's still a little too high. If

1109
00:57:53,800 --> 00:57:57,040
Speaker 2: you bet against Leipzig this year, you'd be down money,

1110
00:57:57,320 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 2: but you'd be up in terms of CLV and that's

1111
00:57:59,560 --> 00:58:02,160
Speaker 2: something that wasted. Glosso pointed out, the market has hated

1112
00:58:02,160 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 2: this team, and I'm starting to come around on that

1113
00:58:04,720 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 2: as well. So I'll think Wolfsburg plus a half at

1114
00:58:07,080 --> 00:58:10,320
Speaker 2: home and then the game of the weekend in Europe

1115
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:14,160
Speaker 2: Glodbach and Dortmund BJ. You know, might have been right

1116
00:58:14,160 --> 00:58:17,720
Speaker 2: about glad Boch because the you know, we said in

1117
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:19,959
Speaker 2: the lead up to the season that like they lost

1118
00:58:20,000 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 2: all of their attacking production, it was worth a shot

1119
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:24,479
Speaker 2: on them at thirty three to one to go down

1120
00:58:24,560 --> 00:58:27,760
Speaker 2: because of that. Well, they have found some really nice

1121
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 2: pieces from across you know, the leagues. You know, they're

1122
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:33,160
Speaker 2: getting some unsustainable numbers from some of these guys, but

1123
00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:37,240
Speaker 2: Kavan Kara, the check forward they bought, has been really

1124
00:58:37,280 --> 00:58:41,080
Speaker 2: impressive from a shots perspective. They're getting really good production

1125
00:58:41,200 --> 00:58:43,920
Speaker 2: from frank Anurott, who they bought from Lege.

1126
00:58:43,920 --> 00:58:44,000
Speaker 3: On.

1127
00:58:44,440 --> 00:58:47,000
Speaker 2: He's been the best ball progresser pretty much in Europe

1128
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:50,200
Speaker 2: and he's put up some ridiculously good numbers as well,

1129
00:58:50,320 --> 00:58:53,439
Speaker 2: so they they found some pieces to make this work.

1130
00:58:53,520 --> 00:58:58,400
Speaker 2: Anorat as forsis already they are now facing a Dortmund

1131
00:58:58,440 --> 00:59:01,680
Speaker 2: defense which is flat out out terrible and the market

1132
00:59:01,720 --> 00:59:04,960
Speaker 2: is not reacting enough. So I like glad Bock plus

1133
00:59:04,960 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 2: one point two five and I like them first half

1134
00:59:06,840 --> 00:59:09,200
Speaker 2: team total over plus one twenty five. You can just

1135
00:59:09,240 --> 00:59:11,160
Speaker 2: look at it. Every time Jordman plays a team of

1136
00:59:11,200 --> 00:59:15,520
Speaker 2: any quality, they have been getting diced up. Still are

1137
00:59:15,560 --> 00:59:18,880
Speaker 2: some concerns for Glodbock defensively with their injuries and just

1138
00:59:18,920 --> 00:59:22,120
Speaker 2: not being very good, but they are gonna be in

1139
00:59:22,120 --> 00:59:24,560
Speaker 2: this game because of how bad Dormund is defensively. So

1140
00:59:25,200 --> 00:59:28,920
Speaker 2: give me the foals. Go get those goals, hopefully in

1141
00:59:28,920 --> 00:59:30,160
Speaker 2: the first half.

1142
00:59:32,080 --> 00:59:34,160
Speaker 1: And we're gonna need them at both halfs.

1143
00:59:34,440 --> 00:59:38,160
Speaker 4: Because a little foreshadowing, not the end of our discussion

1144
00:59:38,200 --> 00:59:42,360
Speaker 4: about glodboch BJ you're the only one with anything in Syria.

1145
00:59:42,480 --> 00:59:45,720
Speaker 3: Ah this weekend, Yeah, the big match of the weekend.

1146
00:59:45,840 --> 00:59:50,200
Speaker 3: Juventus inter Interer is a road favorite, and I am

1147
00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:53,560
Speaker 3: not sure that I agree with that obviously, Inter is

1148
00:59:53,600 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 3: just pumping everybody right now. They're just destroying everybody in

1149
00:59:56,880 --> 01:00:00,040
Speaker 3: their path. They've beaten Roma and not lots of and

1150
01:00:01,400 --> 01:00:04,160
Speaker 3: have been cooking in the Champions League as well. But

1151
01:00:04,280 --> 01:00:08,160
Speaker 3: this Juventus defense has been incredible. I mean they're allowing

1152
01:00:08,240 --> 01:00:11,080
Speaker 3: like point seven xtge for ninety like they'll let you

1153
01:00:11,120 --> 01:00:12,920
Speaker 3: into the final third, they'll let you get shots off,

1154
01:00:12,960 --> 01:00:17,439
Speaker 3: but it's nothing of value. Like their last notable match

1155
01:00:17,440 --> 01:00:20,320
Speaker 3: in Syria A when they played Fiorentina, they scored early

1156
01:00:20,880 --> 01:00:22,320
Speaker 3: and they just handed the ball to them and just

1157
01:00:22,400 --> 01:00:24,920
Speaker 3: dared them to try and score and they couldn't. They

1158
01:00:24,920 --> 01:00:26,720
Speaker 3: took a lot of shots, none of them were of value,

1159
01:00:27,160 --> 01:00:31,520
Speaker 3: and that is the peak of a legrball and Uventus

1160
01:00:31,600 --> 01:00:36,600
Speaker 3: is at that right now. So I really don't think

1161
01:00:36,600 --> 01:00:39,280
Speaker 3: there's a scenario where Inter should be a road favorite here.

1162
01:00:39,320 --> 01:00:41,720
Speaker 3: I mean, if we were doing this against this Juventus

1163
01:00:41,760 --> 01:00:44,000
Speaker 3: team of last season, sure would I would say, yeah,

1164
01:00:44,000 --> 01:00:46,680
Speaker 3: that makes sense. But given the way Uvents has been playing,

1165
01:00:46,720 --> 01:00:48,640
Speaker 3: in the defensive numbers that they have put up, I

1166
01:00:48,680 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 3: like them plus a half minus one forty at home.

1167
01:00:51,000 --> 01:00:54,160
Speaker 1: Okay, la league of time, Anthony.

1168
01:00:53,920 --> 01:00:55,600
Speaker 2: Well, my two teams are playing each other.

1169
01:00:55,560 --> 01:00:56,840
Speaker 4: I know this is tough for you, huh.

1170
01:00:56,880 --> 01:00:59,040
Speaker 2: And it is tough. So I'm gonna take both teams

1171
01:00:59,040 --> 01:01:01,640
Speaker 2: to score because I think both are undervalued by the market.

1172
01:01:02,520 --> 01:01:05,720
Speaker 2: You know, yes, minus one ten. I bet it this morning.

1173
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:10,880
Speaker 2: Valencia against Celta Vigo. I'll tell you. I was in

1174
01:01:10,920 --> 01:01:14,440
Speaker 2: the office, in our Action Network office on Friday when

1175
01:01:14,480 --> 01:01:17,760
Speaker 2: they played bill Bao. What a match. I mean, I

1176
01:01:18,640 --> 01:01:22,480
Speaker 2: was covered in sweat by the end, and I thought

1177
01:01:22,520 --> 01:01:24,520
Speaker 2: we were going to catch our plus one. And then

1178
01:01:24,960 --> 01:01:29,240
Speaker 2: in the final kick of the freaking game, Vigo concedes

1179
01:01:29,640 --> 01:01:31,840
Speaker 2: a soft ass penalty. I mean it was a penalty

1180
01:01:31,840 --> 01:01:34,400
Speaker 2: because it hit his hand, but like so weak, did

1181
01:01:34,440 --> 01:01:37,240
Speaker 2: not make any impact on the real play. They give

1182
01:01:37,280 --> 01:01:39,440
Speaker 2: away the pen, they lose four to three, like ten

1183
01:01:39,520 --> 01:01:41,480
Speaker 2: minutes after they missed their own pen to take the lead.

1184
01:01:42,040 --> 01:01:45,280
Speaker 2: It was classic and BJ sent me the article. There's

1185
01:01:45,280 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 2: an article in the Analyst about Rafa and this Celta

1186
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:52,560
Speaker 2: team and just like historic levels of bad luck. But look, Valencia,

1187
01:01:53,240 --> 01:01:56,320
Speaker 2: you know, Doro and this attack have actually been really improved.

1188
01:01:56,320 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 2: They just put almost three XG on Real Madrid a

1189
01:01:58,840 --> 01:02:01,080
Speaker 2: couple weeks ago. Granted every but he does that. But

1190
01:02:01,200 --> 01:02:04,240
Speaker 2: this Vego team is pretty passive defensively, but they're still

1191
01:02:04,240 --> 01:02:06,680
Speaker 2: conceding a good number of chances. It's just the attack

1192
01:02:06,720 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 2: that has consistently been underrated h and the process has

1193
01:02:09,640 --> 01:02:12,160
Speaker 2: been good. I still believe in them. I will believe

1194
01:02:12,160 --> 01:02:14,640
Speaker 2: in them for the rest of the season. Valencia Vigo

1195
01:02:14,680 --> 01:02:19,600
Speaker 2: b tw TSEs minus won ten thriller incoming. I played

1196
01:02:19,680 --> 01:02:20,360
Speaker 2: alts over too.

1197
01:02:20,920 --> 01:02:24,520
Speaker 3: I'm sure everybody's aware right now, but Girona's at the

1198
01:02:24,520 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 3: top of the table in La Liga and I have

1199
01:02:27,200 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 3: been waiting and waiting and waiting very patiently for a

1200
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:32,600
Speaker 3: spot to fade them, and I think I have found

1201
01:02:32,640 --> 01:02:35,880
Speaker 3: it here on Monday against the team that I think

1202
01:02:35,920 --> 01:02:38,240
Speaker 3: just mentioned, Athletic Bill Baal coming off that four through

1203
01:02:38,280 --> 01:02:42,640
Speaker 3: win against Celta Vigo. So why Girona is at the

1204
01:02:42,640 --> 01:02:47,280
Speaker 3: top of the table is a very interesting conundrum, and

1205
01:02:47,920 --> 01:02:48,720
Speaker 3: really what it.

1206
01:02:48,600 --> 01:02:50,560
Speaker 4: Is is they's a real underdog story.

1207
01:02:50,640 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 1: They've just played They've.

1208
01:02:51,520 --> 01:02:54,560
Speaker 2: Played nobody bad, They've played nobody.

1209
01:02:54,640 --> 01:02:58,560
Speaker 3: They've been beating nobody's ten of they've only won eleven matches.

1210
01:02:59,160 --> 01:03:03,360
Speaker 3: Ten of their eleven matches have come against the bottom,

1211
01:03:03,640 --> 01:03:06,960
Speaker 3: essentially the bottom ten teams in Spain. They're only one

1212
01:03:07,000 --> 01:03:09,920
Speaker 3: match they've won against a team in the top nine

1213
01:03:10,480 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 3: is against you, my boys from Los Palmas, but that's it.

1214
01:03:14,120 --> 01:03:16,840
Speaker 3: They've played Real Madrid, they've lost for nothing. They played

1215
01:03:16,920 --> 01:03:18,920
Speaker 3: Sociated open the season and drew them one to one.

1216
01:03:19,160 --> 01:03:21,600
Speaker 3: So we haven't seen them against good competition. And listen,

1217
01:03:21,920 --> 01:03:24,120
Speaker 3: they are really good in possession, like they are a

1218
01:03:24,240 --> 01:03:27,400
Speaker 3: very fun attacking team. They have really good players. Savio

1219
01:03:27,520 --> 01:03:31,200
Speaker 3: has been incredible for them, but he's injured now. He's

1220
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:34,160
Speaker 3: their best creator out on the wing. And what they

1221
01:03:34,200 --> 01:03:36,520
Speaker 3: love to do is they love to build out in

1222
01:03:36,560 --> 01:03:38,160
Speaker 3: a three to one six. They love to overload the

1223
01:03:38,200 --> 01:03:41,080
Speaker 3: last line of defense and that's wonderful and that works

1224
01:03:41,200 --> 01:03:43,720
Speaker 3: against bad defensive teams or teams at the bottom half

1225
01:03:43,800 --> 01:03:45,920
Speaker 3: the table. But when they lose the ball, they are

1226
01:03:46,360 --> 01:03:50,880
Speaker 3: incredibly exposed to teams that can counter them quickly in transition.

1227
01:03:51,480 --> 01:03:53,840
Speaker 3: Who's the best team at doing that in La Liga?

1228
01:03:54,080 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 3: It's bill Ball. So this is a fantastic matchup for Babao,

1229
01:03:57,800 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 3: who's very quietly in fifth place and as a plus

1230
01:03:59,680 --> 01:04:03,600
Speaker 3: nine back to Goldffrench Hall as well. So Bill Boo

1231
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:07,400
Speaker 3: pick them plus one twenty against a Girona team that's

1232
01:04:07,400 --> 01:04:10,600
Speaker 3: gonna be without their best attacking player and quite frankly

1233
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:14,720
Speaker 3: is overdue to lose a match against. You know they're

1234
01:04:14,760 --> 01:04:17,920
Speaker 3: finally going to play somebody good, so bill bo pick

1235
01:04:17,960 --> 01:04:18,840
Speaker 3: them plus one twenty.

1236
01:04:19,320 --> 01:04:21,880
Speaker 2: I've never seen a first half team total over that

1237
01:04:21,960 --> 01:04:24,480
Speaker 2: I love more than bill bow in this game. It's

1238
01:04:24,520 --> 01:04:27,640
Speaker 2: so great. It is great. But uh yeah, I mean

1239
01:04:27,720 --> 01:04:31,040
Speaker 2: Girona's played nobody except for Vigo, who they barely beat.

1240
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:34,080
Speaker 2: That's their only good quote unquote win of the season

1241
01:04:34,840 --> 01:04:36,439
Speaker 2: and they want it in stoppage time.

1242
01:04:37,240 --> 01:04:41,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, the real underdog story of the season owned by

1243
01:04:42,320 --> 01:04:43,280
Speaker 4: City Football Group.

1244
01:04:43,840 --> 01:04:46,480
Speaker 1: Who did you know the City is gonna win?

1245
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:49,040
Speaker 2: I forgot to mention that we're heading toward them winning

1246
01:04:49,040 --> 01:04:52,360
Speaker 2: all five of the top league. They're gonna buy to lose.

1247
01:04:52,880 --> 01:04:56,480
Speaker 2: They're gonna buy like Genoa.

1248
01:04:56,640 --> 01:05:00,560
Speaker 3: I'm hoping, Michael, that Everton is a sacker so we

1249
01:05:00,560 --> 01:05:03,040
Speaker 3: can finally get a points deduction on City. I'm hoping.

1250
01:05:03,680 --> 01:05:05,680
Speaker 3: If that's the case, I think I think you'll be happy.

1251
01:05:06,080 --> 01:05:12,200
Speaker 4: I think they'd sooner pull out of the Premier League. Okay,

1252
01:05:12,240 --> 01:05:16,280
Speaker 4: before we get to our underdog parlay, BJ get us

1253
01:05:16,280 --> 01:05:17,400
Speaker 4: started in France.

1254
01:05:17,600 --> 01:05:20,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, real quick? Nice minus one minus one fifteen against

1255
01:05:20,480 --> 01:05:22,920
Speaker 3: to lose to lose. One of the worst defensive teams

1256
01:05:23,000 --> 01:05:25,160
Speaker 3: in France. As you've seen, they've given him seven goals

1257
01:05:25,160 --> 01:05:28,680
Speaker 3: to Liverpool in the Europa League, conceding about one point

1258
01:05:28,800 --> 01:05:31,360
Speaker 3: nine next sheep or ninety minutes. A really really bad team,

1259
01:05:31,400 --> 01:05:34,320
Speaker 3: and they have to sit in set in a set defense,

1260
01:05:34,360 --> 01:05:38,280
Speaker 3: and they're also really bad in transition. While nice very

1261
01:05:38,360 --> 01:05:41,600
Speaker 3: when they play lesser competition, they have beaten that lesser

1262
01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 3: competition by one expected goal at least in every single

1263
01:05:45,000 --> 01:05:48,040
Speaker 3: one of those matches. So a nice team that is

1264
01:05:48,200 --> 01:05:50,439
Speaker 3: really fun tactle team that I talked about last time

1265
01:05:50,600 --> 01:05:53,360
Speaker 3: when they played Month of the Air. Unfortunately did not

1266
01:05:53,400 --> 01:05:56,520
Speaker 3: win that match, but this is a good spot for

1267
01:05:56,560 --> 01:05:59,760
Speaker 3: a nice team that is still undervalued by the market.

1268
01:06:00,080 --> 01:06:01,680
Speaker 3: Nie minus won a home against to lose.

1269
01:06:02,360 --> 01:06:03,720
Speaker 2: I really thought we were gonna get a good number

1270
01:06:03,760 --> 01:06:08,480
Speaker 2: to bet PSG against Monaco at home, but we didn't,

1271
01:06:09,040 --> 01:06:11,040
Speaker 2: so I'm gonna be passing there. I do like Strasburg

1272
01:06:11,080 --> 01:06:13,800
Speaker 2: at home against Marseille. Marseille has been interesting this year.

1273
01:06:14,680 --> 01:06:17,960
Speaker 2: Their underlying numbers are actually better than the past, but

1274
01:06:18,120 --> 01:06:20,960
Speaker 2: their goal difference is negative and that is really funny

1275
01:06:20,960 --> 01:06:24,440
Speaker 2: because all of those years of this Marseille team being

1276
01:06:24,440 --> 01:06:27,040
Speaker 2: an absolute luck box. They're finally starting to regress now

1277
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:29,080
Speaker 2: and the market just keeps downgrading them, and I think

1278
01:06:29,080 --> 01:06:30,400
Speaker 2: it's I think it's real, and I think it's a

1279
01:06:30,520 --> 01:06:32,360
Speaker 2: very mediocre team when you look at them on paper.

1280
01:06:32,840 --> 01:06:35,880
Speaker 2: Their biggest problem has been they haven't really created against

1281
01:06:35,880 --> 01:06:38,040
Speaker 2: any quality opponent they've played this year. They played Leo

1282
01:06:38,160 --> 01:06:41,200
Speaker 2: less than one XG, Niece less than one XG, lent

1283
01:06:42,040 --> 01:06:45,840
Speaker 2: Long less than one XG, Monico one x G. So

1284
01:06:46,000 --> 01:06:49,920
Speaker 2: anytime they've played any real competition PSG as well, the

1285
01:06:49,960 --> 01:06:52,000
Speaker 2: attack has really fallen off. And that's what we've kind

1286
01:06:52,000 --> 01:06:54,960
Speaker 2: of suggested with this team for a while, which is

1287
01:06:55,000 --> 01:06:57,280
Speaker 2: just like they're not nearly as good. They just have

1288
01:06:57,320 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 2: an insanely high conversion rate of chances. And now you

1289
01:07:02,160 --> 01:07:04,520
Speaker 2: know Strasburgh's on a great defense. They're an average defense,

1290
01:07:04,800 --> 01:07:07,160
Speaker 2: but catching a half goal at home, I like Strasbourg

1291
01:07:08,480 --> 01:07:08,880
Speaker 2: at home.

1292
01:07:09,080 --> 01:07:13,000
Speaker 4: So all right, we are just about a week removed

1293
01:07:13,000 --> 01:07:16,320
Speaker 4: from our one year anniversary of hitting our only underdog Parlay.

1294
01:07:16,360 --> 01:07:19,440
Speaker 4: It was two hundred and one to one. Came through.

1295
01:07:20,080 --> 01:07:21,880
Speaker 4: The one year anniversary came through when we were on

1296
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:25,360
Speaker 4: international break of ever twelfth. I think it was so

1297
01:07:25,400 --> 01:07:28,800
Speaker 4: maybe we can get back on the board here with

1298
01:07:29,040 --> 01:07:31,360
Speaker 4: an eighty seven to one banger beajet, you can kick

1299
01:07:31,440 --> 01:07:32,760
Speaker 4: us off Wolves.

1300
01:07:32,360 --> 01:07:36,320
Speaker 3: Plus two ten on the road against Fulham on Monday

1301
01:07:36,360 --> 01:07:39,160
Speaker 3: night will be the last leg of this one. Just

1302
01:07:39,200 --> 01:07:40,960
Speaker 3: a really good already talked about a really good match

1303
01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:43,120
Speaker 3: up here for Wolves against a Fulham team that's going

1304
01:07:43,160 --> 01:07:45,280
Speaker 3: to be without Paulinia, their best ball stopper in the

1305
01:07:45,280 --> 01:07:47,920
Speaker 3: middle of the pitch. Fulham offensively has done next to nothing.

1306
01:07:47,960 --> 01:07:49,640
Speaker 3: They're still going to have to start raling men is

1307
01:07:49,720 --> 01:07:53,840
Speaker 3: up top, and Wolves under Gary o'nill is becoming the

1308
01:07:53,880 --> 01:07:57,120
Speaker 3: best version of what Gary O'Neills Barnmut team was last season.

1309
01:07:57,160 --> 01:07:59,920
Speaker 3: A team that's good in transition, good on set pieces

1310
01:08:00,160 --> 01:08:02,120
Speaker 3: and can cause problems if you try to build out

1311
01:08:02,120 --> 01:08:04,480
Speaker 3: through the middle of the pitch. The midfield's improved. So

1312
01:08:04,720 --> 01:08:07,320
Speaker 3: I really don't think there's a scenario with when Fulham

1313
01:08:07,360 --> 01:08:09,880
Speaker 3: doesn't have their best player, why they should be a

1314
01:08:10,120 --> 01:08:10,880
Speaker 3: home favorite here.

1315
01:08:10,920 --> 01:08:14,120
Speaker 1: So I like, we'll cost you ten Brentford.

1316
01:08:14,440 --> 01:08:16,040
Speaker 3: Oh, I hope this loses.

1317
01:08:17,560 --> 01:08:20,880
Speaker 1: It's just it's interesting. Do you have to keep going.

1318
01:08:23,280 --> 01:08:26,680
Speaker 2: The time two out of three of the player the

1319
01:08:26,720 --> 01:08:30,519
Speaker 2: teams we have this weekend we're in that parlay. Yeah,

1320
01:08:30,880 --> 01:08:33,639
Speaker 2: Brentford was one of them. It was not Naven Forrest and.

1321
01:08:36,200 --> 01:08:40,800
Speaker 3: Should I change down Forest right?

1322
01:08:43,520 --> 01:08:50,160
Speaker 2: It was glod Bag five to one against RuSHA do that,

1323
01:08:51,160 --> 01:08:53,559
Speaker 2: So it's pretty funny. But yeah, I mean, look, Dorman's

1324
01:08:53,560 --> 01:08:56,439
Speaker 2: five to one on the road, Actually mean glod Box

1325
01:08:56,439 --> 01:08:59,200
Speaker 2: five to one on the road at Dormant And this

1326
01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:01,439
Speaker 2: defense is just so so flawed. They give up three

1327
01:09:01,479 --> 01:09:05,160
Speaker 2: ex sheet to Stuttgart. Every competent team they've played has

1328
01:09:05,280 --> 01:09:07,519
Speaker 2: brought up the score on them from a chances and

1329
01:09:07,560 --> 01:09:10,479
Speaker 2: goals perspective, and I think that's going to continue. So

1330
01:09:11,000 --> 01:09:12,439
Speaker 2: god Boch is going to be in like a two

1331
01:09:12,520 --> 01:09:14,519
Speaker 2: to two to two one crazy kind of game could

1332
01:09:14,520 --> 01:09:16,360
Speaker 2: go either way. So at five to one, I like,

1333
01:09:16,400 --> 01:09:17,440
Speaker 2: I like the foleship.

1334
01:09:17,520 --> 01:09:20,800
Speaker 4: So that's Brentford Wolves and glad Bach eighty seven to

1335
01:09:20,840 --> 01:09:23,840
Speaker 4: one if all three legs come through onto best bets

1336
01:09:23,880 --> 01:09:25,719
Speaker 4: Now for the upcoming Premier League weekend.

1337
01:09:25,800 --> 01:09:28,840
Speaker 2: Anthony Arsenal Brentford under two and a half minus one

1338
01:09:28,840 --> 01:09:32,439
Speaker 2: Ozho four. Arsenal has been on an elite, elite defensive run,

1339
01:09:32,439 --> 01:09:34,960
Speaker 2: the best defense in all of Europe save maybe Nice,

1340
01:09:35,400 --> 01:09:39,360
Speaker 2: and they have prioritized control over everything, they have limited

1341
01:09:39,360 --> 01:09:41,080
Speaker 2: their own attack. As a result of this, they have

1342
01:09:41,200 --> 01:09:44,120
Speaker 2: not been as good through the middle and Brentford, you know,

1343
01:09:44,160 --> 01:09:48,439
Speaker 2: with their defensive approach, I think still has the ability

1344
01:09:48,520 --> 01:09:51,280
Speaker 2: to shut down even the best attacks, as they've done

1345
01:09:51,280 --> 01:09:54,240
Speaker 2: at times this season. I know they've had some slippage recently,

1346
01:09:54,479 --> 01:09:55,920
Speaker 2: but I like the under two and a half here.

1347
01:09:56,600 --> 01:10:00,000
Speaker 2: I only projected for two point three six, so the under.

1348
01:10:00,600 --> 01:10:02,320
Speaker 1: So wrong team is favored.

1349
01:10:02,439 --> 01:10:05,800
Speaker 4: In Everton versus Manchester United at Goodison Park, Everdent plus

1350
01:10:05,800 --> 01:10:09,160
Speaker 4: one eighty is my favorite bet hosting a beleaguered Manchester

1351
01:10:09,240 --> 01:10:12,479
Speaker 4: United squad. We talked about the motivational factor at play

1352
01:10:12,520 --> 01:10:15,200
Speaker 4: here for the Toffees, but that may be under sells

1353
01:10:15,240 --> 01:10:18,560
Speaker 4: just how good this team's been relative to their expectations

1354
01:10:18,560 --> 01:10:22,400
Speaker 4: and to think the public perception of them coming off

1355
01:10:22,439 --> 01:10:25,960
Speaker 4: of two dismal seasons and really unlucky but horse start.

1356
01:10:26,479 --> 01:10:31,320
Speaker 4: So this is not your older cousins Everton hosting your

1357
01:10:31,360 --> 01:10:35,280
Speaker 4: older cousins Manchester United. This is a United team that's

1358
01:10:35,320 --> 01:10:38,719
Speaker 4: in a serious, serious injury crisis. The name brand value

1359
01:10:38,800 --> 01:10:42,920
Speaker 4: is definitely overshadowing where this team truly is in terms

1360
01:10:42,960 --> 01:10:46,160
Speaker 4: of actual talent at the moment, so I love the

1361
01:10:46,200 --> 01:10:49,800
Speaker 4: Toffees here, I don't hate chasing some alternate spreads here.

1362
01:10:49,960 --> 01:10:52,320
Speaker 4: Taffees in Aro out BJ what do you got.

1363
01:10:52,439 --> 01:10:55,320
Speaker 3: Aston Villa Drono Bett plus one fifteen against Toddham. The

1364
01:10:55,320 --> 01:11:00,200
Speaker 3: injury situation for Tottenham is very dire as of right now.

1365
01:11:00,600 --> 01:11:03,920
Speaker 3: James Madison, Mickey Van Devenn, Christian Romero, Besuma and ra

1366
01:11:04,040 --> 01:11:07,680
Speaker 3: Charles snarl out Whodogi is questionable and that is a

1367
01:11:07,720 --> 01:11:10,639
Speaker 3: problem given the way that ange Polskoe wants to play.

1368
01:11:10,680 --> 01:11:12,920
Speaker 3: He wants his teams to press high and he's going

1369
01:11:12,920 --> 01:11:15,439
Speaker 3: to play a very high line if aston Villa, which

1370
01:11:15,439 --> 01:11:17,080
Speaker 3: they should be able to which they are a good

1371
01:11:17,080 --> 01:11:18,880
Speaker 3: build up team to play through that first line of

1372
01:11:18,880 --> 01:11:21,880
Speaker 3: the pressure that is going to put a lot of

1373
01:11:21,920 --> 01:11:24,400
Speaker 3: pressure on Eric Dyer and Ben Davies to defend in

1374
01:11:24,439 --> 01:11:28,120
Speaker 3: one on one situations against Olie Watkins and Mussa Diabi

1375
01:11:28,120 --> 01:11:30,479
Speaker 3: who have been in incredible form right now, and aston

1376
01:11:30,560 --> 01:11:33,200
Speaker 3: Villa defensively the season have basically had just two bad

1377
01:11:33,200 --> 01:11:36,280
Speaker 3: performances against Liverpool and against Newcastle where they got beat

1378
01:11:36,320 --> 01:11:37,439
Speaker 3: up when they were trying to build out of the

1379
01:11:37,479 --> 01:11:39,639
Speaker 3: back and it led to a lot of transition opportunities

1380
01:11:39,640 --> 01:11:42,519
Speaker 3: for both Newcastle and Liverpool. In their other ten matches,

1381
01:11:42,560 --> 01:11:45,880
Speaker 3: they have only averaged conceded about one expecta goal per

1382
01:11:45,960 --> 01:11:48,840
Speaker 3: ninety minutes, so the defense is still very very good.

1383
01:11:48,920 --> 01:11:51,759
Speaker 3: So given the injury situation right now for Tottenham players

1384
01:11:51,760 --> 01:11:54,040
Speaker 3: on the field, I think aston Villa is a better team.

1385
01:11:54,160 --> 01:11:56,639
Speaker 3: So I like aston Villa drawn Novett at plus one fifteen.

1386
01:11:56,800 --> 01:11:59,160
Speaker 4: Okay, that does it for this episode of Wonder Goal.

1387
01:11:59,240 --> 01:12:00,519
Speaker 4: For bj and Anthony.

1388
01:12:00,560 --> 01:12:01,360
Speaker 1: I'm Michael Eibov.

1389
01:12:01,479 --> 01:12:03,400
Speaker 4: We will see you again on Monday morning.

1390
01:12:11,920 --> 01:12:16,120
Speaker 3: Happy Thanksgiving gamblers, We're thankful for you.

1391
01:12:18,439 --> 01:12:22,960
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1392
01:12:22,960 --> 01:12:25,760
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1393
01:12:25,800 --> 01:12:28,919
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler