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Speaker 1: Ye, Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane

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Speaker 1: Jai Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course on the Bloomberg Let

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Speaker 1: us step back from the usual Fed day chat. We

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Speaker 1: can do that with Peter Hooper with Deutsche Bank, with

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Speaker 1: his wonderful experience in international economics and of course central

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Speaker 1: bank watching as well. You mentioned earlier this morning, Dr Hooper,

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Speaker 1: the dots, You and I would not have talked about

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Speaker 1: the dots X number of years ago. Arthur Burns didn't

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Speaker 1: have dots. Chairman Greenspan didn't have dots. Chair yelling has dot.

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Speaker 1: Do you assume that any central bank by definition reacts

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Speaker 1: after the fact that there can be dots, dots, dots, dots,

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Speaker 1: None of it matters because they have to wait and

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Speaker 1: be what the Latins called ex post well the dots. Uh.

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Speaker 1: This is in a in a long train of increasing transparent,

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Speaker 1: the transparency, the FED letting it, letting the market know,

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Speaker 1: letting the public know what their expectations are where they

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Speaker 1: expect to be. So it's an exercise. I get exercise.

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Speaker 1: But do they have to wait in the ex post?

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Speaker 1: Is Mr Timberlake of Georgia and frankly, as Anna Schwartz

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Speaker 1: and others have written about the meltzer, they have to

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Speaker 1: react after the fact, right, Well, they react to incoming data,

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Speaker 1: no question. But at any point in time, they have

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Speaker 1: an expectation about what's what, what's what's going forward? UM?

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Speaker 1: I think you know, Um, there's been a lot happening recently,

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Speaker 1: the shift in the fiscal policy, the shift in the

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Speaker 1: shift towards somewhat higher inflation. UM. So the you know

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Speaker 1: likelihood is we're going to see some some movement here

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Speaker 1: in reaction to what's been going on. Um. But uh,

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Speaker 1: Now when I say some movement, I say we'll see

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Speaker 1: some of the dots move up to get the median

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Speaker 1: dot there right now, what the chart looks like, there

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Speaker 1: are six uh partisans, there are six dots. There are

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Speaker 1: six dots clustered around, clustered around three and three rate

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Speaker 1: hikes next year. Uh. Four of those would have to

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Speaker 1: move up to get the media to move Okay, because

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Speaker 1: there are five above and there are quite a bit

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Speaker 1: more below. So uh, at this point it's a close call.

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Speaker 1: I don't think we have quite enough momentum to get there.

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Speaker 1: I don't think the Committee is going to want to

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Speaker 1: maybe tie j Pale's hands quite so directly yet, but

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Speaker 1: that'll be something that if, if indeed the data over

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Speaker 1: the next three months continue to improve, they have a

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Speaker 1: luxury of shifting in March, raising rates in March and

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Speaker 1: saying we expect to do three more this year. Peter,

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Speaker 1: let's react to the headline, shall we opec boost in

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Speaker 1: the forecast for rival supply? They don't see a balance

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Speaker 1: until late. I want to fold in what's happening in

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Speaker 1: the commodity market into the FED debate, because in many ways,

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Speaker 1: the rollover and crude is what's set off a big

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Speaker 1: step back for many central banks around the world, for

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Speaker 1: the FED not be able to increase interest rates in

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Speaker 1: the way they would like to, and for the ECB

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Speaker 1: to go crazy and start doing some incredible things with

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Speaker 1: its balance sheet. The commodity story is now more supportive

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Speaker 1: of higher inflation, at least for now and potentially in

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Speaker 1: the future as well. Is that something they've got to

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Speaker 1: deal with next year? That that that is a factor? Uh? Now,

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Speaker 1: I will say that you know, the rig count in

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Speaker 1: the US has been rising, and the expectation is maybe

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Speaker 1: we're tapping on oil praises, the good good level off

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Speaker 1: maybe so often just a little bit. So there's not

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Speaker 1: a there's not a strong commodity boom driving this. It

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Speaker 1: is a factor. It's contributing. But I think more important

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Speaker 1: for the FED is what's happening to the core uh

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Speaker 1: that is what they see as having more sustainability going forward.

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Speaker 1: Let's talk about the core of the economy. GDPs running

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Speaker 1: at three unemployments down in the force. They're going into

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Speaker 1: next year. We're looking at the dots. We look at

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Speaker 1: the dots because we want to see where the market

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Speaker 1: is relative to where the FED thinks rates will be

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Speaker 1: next year. And there's still a spread, How is that

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Speaker 1: spread going to reconcile with the market up to the

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Speaker 1: dots sort of dots down to the market. I think

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Speaker 1: after a long after many years of FED coming down

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Speaker 1: to the market, I think we're shifting now. The market

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Speaker 1: is now coming back up to the FED, and I

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Speaker 1: think that will continue. What's what's changed over the last

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Speaker 1: five years is we've had the unemployment rate go from

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Speaker 1: double digits down to almost four percent. Yeah, and that

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Speaker 1: that process has not has not ended. Uh the economy

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Speaker 1: growing at two and a half three percent. Supply side

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Speaker 1: of the economy continues grow at well less than two

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Speaker 1: right now, so the momentum in the labor market has

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Speaker 1: not ended. You're going to see the unemployment rate drop further.

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Speaker 1: We think it's going into the mid threes by by

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Speaker 1: the end of next year. Uh FO MC projection consensus

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Speaker 1: of economists set leveling off at four. So we think

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Speaker 1: the risk is further tightening and that is going to

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Speaker 1: Our own forecast is for four rate heights next year.

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Speaker 1: And that's that's a very important part of the reason.

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Speaker 1: Peter Hoopa, Deutsche Bank chief economists see for me, Tom,

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Speaker 1: it's crucial. It's what's changed this year, and it's the

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Speaker 1: FED lead in the market, not the market leading the Fed.

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Speaker 1: And it sets us up quite nicely for next year,

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Speaker 1: in which most people I've spoken to Tom, and I

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Speaker 1: don't know about you think exactly the same thing is

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Speaker 1: gonna happenen and repeat it seen where the market has

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Speaker 1: to catch up with the Fed and not vice versa. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I would say that's certainly the same guys. Do you

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Speaker 1: almost see it in the dots. But I would look

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Speaker 1: at the economic data coming in and again I go

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Speaker 1: to the Honeywell single headline today of seven to eight

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Speaker 1: percent organic revenue growth. That's a headline was basically unimaginable

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Speaker 1: in two thousand seventeen. As they look out next year,

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Speaker 1: Mr Kote and Honeywell, we'll do some work on that

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Speaker 1: in surveillance in the coming days with our great Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Intelligence industrial team as well. Peter Hooper, thank you so

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Speaker 1: much for briefing us this morning. He is with Deutsche Bank.

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Speaker 1: We continue with Anthony Skermouchi, former White House Communications director,

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Speaker 1: founder of Skybridge Capital, and as well. One of the

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Speaker 1: great untold stories of Republican politics is Dinner Powell. She

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Speaker 1: came out of Texas. She came off a boat, off

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Speaker 1: the proverbial plane, not speaking English, from Egypt. Her parents

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Speaker 1: ran a convenience store. She's one of the huge six

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Speaker 1: tenses for women in the Republican Party. The reports are

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Speaker 1: that Ms Powell will exit the White House. You exited

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Speaker 1: under a lot different uh terms, etcetera. If you will,

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Speaker 1: how alone is this president going to be after the

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Speaker 1: one year exit that's assumed, Maybe Tillerson definitely Powell and others.

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Speaker 1: Is there a bench to replace the first go around

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Speaker 1: of the Trump administration. Yeah. Not only is there a bench,

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Speaker 1: I think there's an unlimited supply of people that would

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Speaker 1: want to work for the president. So to me, Uh,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about Dina for a second. She's an amazing person.

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Speaker 1: She's very, very gifted. I think she's been super instrumental

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Speaker 1: on the blueprint of the peace Plan that I think

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Speaker 1: would be unveiled probably in the first or second quarter

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Speaker 1: of next year. Uh. Brilliant person. She's got a great

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Speaker 1: touch with people on presidents very close to her. I

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Speaker 1: want you to respond to the comment made every day,

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Speaker 1: which is there's a set of people by generals around

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Speaker 1: the president that people feel are they're doing a public service?

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Speaker 1: You were in the trenches of this General Maddis, General Kelly,

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Speaker 1: General McMaster and others, maybe even Mr Tillison. Are they

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Speaker 1: there for the president or are they there because they

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Speaker 1: have a duty bound to the Republican party in the

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Speaker 1: nation to assist this unique president. Well, listen, I I

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Speaker 1: think they're there for the president. At the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, he hired them, so uh, I think he

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Speaker 1: has a lot of respect for for all three of them.

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Speaker 1: I'm closer to General McMaster than I am too General Maddis. Obviously,

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Speaker 1: I didn't know General Kelly. My joke was, if I

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Speaker 1: had known General Kelly, maybe he would give me a

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Speaker 1: bar so and told me to go wash my mouth out. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And my guesses I would have gotten along with General Kelly.

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Speaker 1: But but I think they're both, or all three of

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Speaker 1: them are distinguished patriotic Americans. I think it's unfair to

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Speaker 1: characterize them the way people do characterize them. Well, they're

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Speaker 1: doing a public service and uh, and the president's controversial

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Speaker 1: and they're there to kind of rein him in. I

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Speaker 1: really don't believe any of that stuff. I was there,

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Speaker 1: although I was there for a short period of time.

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Speaker 1: The president spent his own person, his own boss, if

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Speaker 1: you will, for forty five plus years. Uh, and that's

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Speaker 1: not gonna change anytime soon. Did you get a pension?

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Speaker 1: That was a joke. If I stayed another two thousand,

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Speaker 1: five hundred and sixty days, maybe I would have gotten one.

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Speaker 1: You know, Steve Bannon, I didn't take any pay either,

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Speaker 1: by the way, You know Steve Bannon, for many people,

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Speaker 1: he got his wings clipped yesterday. Yeah, what is the

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Speaker 1: future Steve Bannon as far as you consent, well, listen,

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Speaker 1: I wouldn't count Steve Bannon out. Uh. He definitely lost

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Speaker 1: yesterday with Steve Bannon is a warrior, and Steve Bannon

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Speaker 1: that's a battle, that's not the war. Um, he's not

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Speaker 1: my cup of tea. Politically, I disagree with him ideologically

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Speaker 1: on a lot of things, and there are certain things

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Speaker 1: that I actually agree with them ideologically. But the whole

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Speaker 1: notion of whole Roy Moore thing, he's going to have

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Speaker 1: to own that. Uh, and at some point, hopefully he'll

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Speaker 1: have to explain that the people why he went in

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Speaker 1: that direction so aggressive? Can you draw a distinction between

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Speaker 1: his ideology and theology of President Donald Trump has a

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Speaker 1: very big difference through that. So the very big difference.

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Speaker 1: First of all, the president's his own man. The nonsense

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Speaker 1: that Steve Bannon won that election for President Donald J.

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Speaker 1: Trump is absolute nonsense. The President won the election himself. Uh.

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Speaker 1: Steve got into the race in August after he'd already

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Speaker 1: beaten seventeen uh presidential candidates on the Republican side. Um,

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Speaker 1: you know, they're very very different people. Our global audience.

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Speaker 1: President is way more inclusive of a guy he's less

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Speaker 1: quote unquote this white nationalist nonsense. Tell us about the

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Speaker 1: home you grew up in on Long Island, A hey,

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Speaker 1: listen was it was a It was a great home.

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Speaker 1: I grew up in a small, uh, single family home

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Speaker 1: in Port Washington in a blue our middle class area.

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Speaker 1: My parents didn't go to college. I wanted to set

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Speaker 1: that up. Can the Democratic Party get back to those people?

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Speaker 1: Or the progressives of the opposing party given up Port Washington? Well,

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Speaker 1: that area of Port Washington, I think they've lost for

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Speaker 1: quite some time, you know, But let's talk more broadly

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Speaker 1: about Wisconsin. Yeah, let's probably have Middle America. I think

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Speaker 1: that the common struggle that working class people have, uh

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Speaker 1: face with declining wages and face with declining real living standards.

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Speaker 1: I think the Democratic Party has actually disconnected from those people. Uh.

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Speaker 1: It may be specific candidates like Secretary Clinton that disconnected.

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Speaker 1: Maybe more broadly, there'll be a presidential candidate that can

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Speaker 1: plug back into that. But you and I have been

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Speaker 1: around long enough to know that politics isn't always in

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Speaker 1: a state of flux. You get the right candidate with

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Speaker 1: the right message and the right level of charisma, they'll

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Speaker 1: attract those people again, are you to do your Salt conference? Yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's not that's not stating local text. So so I

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Speaker 1: will happen in May. Um we're working on on the

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Speaker 1: Bent venue, will be announcing that in mid January. And

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Speaker 1: it's our tenth anniversary this year, so I'm I'm super

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Speaker 1: excited to get the programming out there. Hopefully I can

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Speaker 1: get you out there, Tom, Well, we'll see you meet

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Speaker 1: the height requirement to come to Salt very good. And

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Speaker 1: it's not stay in local taxes. It's the conference on

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Speaker 1: the alternative investment space Anthony Scaram, which you think is

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Speaker 1: White House Communications director, founder Skybridge Capital as well. We're

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Speaker 1: not drag in a gentleman whose notes are terse, sharp

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Speaker 1: and to the point, and that has made them of

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Speaker 1: great value. And the huge tumult of the last call

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Speaker 1: it ten business days and political days as well, Mr

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Speaker 1: Greg val Greg in your morning note, you have a

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Speaker 1: wonderful set of issues and one of them that is

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Speaker 1: just so important is how the text bill gets done

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Speaker 1: after Alabama? How does Alabama shift the back and forth

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Speaker 1: debate going on right now in Washington. Well, it's a

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Speaker 1: real wake up call, Tom. I think the conferees know

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Speaker 1: that they got to get this thing done quickly. If

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Speaker 1: if things stall and we have the Doug Jones seated

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Speaker 1: on the second or third in January, you're looking at

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Speaker 1: a very very tense vote with maybe Sissan Collins or

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Speaker 1: Bob Corker defective. So they got to get this thing

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Speaker 1: done in the next week or so. You mentioned those names,

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Speaker 1: and you also mentioned Mr Rubio of Florida. Their power

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Speaker 1: is enhanced this morning, isn't it. Yes, it is that

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Speaker 1: that one vote is so crucial, uh now because we

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Speaker 1: go to fifty nine. So you're absolutely right. It makes

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Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell's life a more complicated and it certainly shows

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Speaker 1: that the president's political capital has been diminished. Greg, how

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Speaker 1: does it change things for next year? I think it's

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Speaker 1: going to be hard to get anything done, whether it's

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Speaker 1: entitlement reform, infrastructure, Obamacare, you name it. I think that

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Speaker 1: you're going to have a hard time getting much through Congress.

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Speaker 1: We always connect things back to the markets here on

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Speaker 1: bloom Buk Savanna's and back to the economy, and it

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Speaker 1: seems to me that beyond tax overhaul, what's in doubt

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Speaker 1: in terms of what could have boosted the economy because

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Speaker 1: for most people they weren't expected much from anyway. Well,

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Speaker 1: I think that's right. I think infrastructure is unlikely. I

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Speaker 1: think what's in doubt, beyond any question is Robert Mueller.

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Speaker 1: That story gets hotter over the next few months. I

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Speaker 1: think more indictments are to come. I think that if

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Speaker 1: Trump's family get indicted, Donald Trump Jr. Or Jared Kushner,

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Speaker 1: Trump will be very tempted to fire Mueller. When's the

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Speaker 1: bye time? First quarter, next year, second half? What are

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Speaker 1: we looking at? I think by the end of the

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Speaker 1: first quarter, Mueller will be the dominant story in the

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Speaker 1: city by far. I'm gonna rip up the script here, Greg,

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Speaker 1: this is so important it's almost unimaginable. If we were

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Speaker 1: to see the Special Council fired, give us the Watergate

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Speaker 1: perils in that the majority party, am I right? Must

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Speaker 1: respond I think so, and Tom. You know, one of

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Speaker 1: the impacts of last night in Alabama is that Trump

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Speaker 1: is now an albatross for most Republicans. So once they

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Speaker 1: get this tax bill done, and it will get done

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Speaker 1: in the next week or two, once that's they're gonna

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Speaker 1: they're gonna bolt from him. They're gonna bail Once okay,

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Speaker 1: but not to pin you down. I'm reading Cass Sunstein's

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Speaker 1: spectacular monograph Impeachment, where he does not mention President Trump.

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Speaker 1: Are you suggesting that the Special Council firing of Mr

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Speaker 1: Mueller would be a high crime in this demeter within

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Speaker 1: the traditional mandate of impeachment? It would lead to a

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Speaker 1: constitutional crisis. And I'm old enough to remember what happened

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Speaker 1: with Watergate when Republic went to Nixon and said, you know,

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Speaker 1: the game is exactly I'm not sure we're there yet.

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Speaker 1: With Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan, I think they would

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Speaker 1: need to see something far more provocative. I argue that

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Speaker 1: by the end of the first quarter a provocation will occur.

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Speaker 1: I I look at this, John Farrell, it's just extraordinary

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Speaker 1: to you know, this is really the first time in

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Speaker 1: the show we've really begun to consider something as draconian

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Speaker 1: especial and it will so so far tom so far.

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Speaker 1: What has happened Every time these headlines have dropped and

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Speaker 1: things have seemed to escalated, the market jos lower, then

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Speaker 1: it gaps higher again. And I'm just wondering, if you

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Speaker 1: get to the point where the Special Counsel is fired

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Speaker 1: by the President, whether markets react in a more sustainable

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Speaker 1: way where we gap lower and we stay there and

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Speaker 1: we don't erase those losses because of the amount of uncertainty,

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Speaker 1: or whether it changes anything at all. Tom Well, I

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Speaker 1: don't know. Greg Villier, very quickly. Here do you see

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Speaker 1: the markets linked to anything that would happen with Special

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Speaker 1: Council Mueller? You know the fundamentals are so good. Thank

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Speaker 1: you Janny Yellen of great farewell, so she'll have today.

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Speaker 1: I think the key for the market says, could you

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Speaker 1: get sixty seven votes in the Senate to convict I

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Speaker 1: say no, Greg villa thank you so much. RUFC briefing here.

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Speaker 1: If you're not a global Wall Street but you're a

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Speaker 1: curious investor, here beginneth the clinic with us. Dennis Gartman,

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Speaker 1: I've been waiting for this all morning. We spent hours

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Speaker 1: with garment. Most of it was unsuccessful. This will be successful.

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Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman on the futures market. When did you first

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Speaker 1: walk into a futures pit? I bought my seat on

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Speaker 1: the Chicago Boarder Trade. I think it was you had

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Speaker 1: the coat in the little badges. Did you do the

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Speaker 1: hand thing like? Absolutely? And I cleared through Virginia Trading Company,

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Speaker 1: and you had to actually prove that you to a

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Speaker 1: Southern school to be able to be allowed to clear

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Speaker 1: through Virginia. We wore what looked like blue blazers. We

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Speaker 1: always had white shirts on. We always had our tie on,

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Speaker 1: and we were the Southern boys on the exchange. The

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Speaker 1: days are gone, but it's still the wild wild West

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Speaker 1: of bitcoin exchanges. When you see cbo E, you see

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Speaker 1: CM into the action, you're you're beyond. You look grizzled today.

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Speaker 1: By the way, you're a grizzled pro. What's your response

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Speaker 1: to the futures boys jumping into bitcoin? It's probably gonna

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Speaker 1: moderate prices more than anything. For the first time, You're

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Speaker 1: actually gonna have a market and avenue where people can

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Speaker 1: get short of bitcoin. And it is long. You haven't

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Speaker 1: been able to do that thus far, and it and

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Speaker 1: it takes shorts to keep a market from going higher.

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Speaker 1: It takes shorts and longs to keep a market moderated.

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Speaker 1: And I think this is it. It brings convention, it

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Speaker 1: brings solemnity to the to the trading arena. You write

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Speaker 1: a Midwestern, Southern authenticity to your note, and it's about

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Speaker 1: tangible commodities. Yes, not eveny futures. Blah blah blah. It's

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Speaker 1: about wheat, it's about horne. Bitcoin is none of the

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Speaker 1: value propositions of a tangible. That's the problem. I'm not

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Speaker 1: sure whether it's a currency. I'm not sure whether it's

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Speaker 1: an asset. I'm not sure whether it's a commodity. I'm

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Speaker 1: not sure what bitcoin is. Maybe I'm too old, maybe

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Speaker 1: it's maybe it's modern technology gone past me. But I

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Speaker 1: wish everybody well who trades it. It will It will

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Speaker 1: probably be traded for years into the future, and likely

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Speaker 1: without me. But it is something that can be sold.

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Speaker 1: There's a market for it. There are thirteen year olds

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Speaker 1: out there that you just told me, are clamoring for bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: Explain what you heard. I was watching television the other

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Speaker 1: day and somebody was interviewing I'm not sure which TV

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Speaker 1: station it was on, but they were interviewing a thirteen

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Speaker 1: year old who had owned a bitcoin and was telling

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Speaker 1: people how much money he had made. They were listening

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Speaker 1: to him as if he was a grizzled old veteran

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Speaker 1: on Wall Street. And he said, you buy bitcoin. If

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Speaker 1: it falls, you buy more bitcoin, and if it falls,

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Speaker 1: you buy even more Bitcoin pros would say, that's the

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Speaker 1: sign of a disaster about to happen. You don't keep

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Speaker 1: buying something that's going down. And that's also in contradiction

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Speaker 1: to your description of what makes a great trader, like

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Speaker 1: a gentleman, Jack Nash, I believe explain what makes a

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Speaker 1: great trader. The ability to take a loss, that's what

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Speaker 1: That's what makes a great trader. The ability to say,

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Speaker 1: this has moved against me. Somebody knows something I don't know.

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Speaker 1: It's not doing what I wanted to do. And what

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Speaker 1: makes a truly great trader is the ability to say

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Speaker 1: I'm out, I'm wrong, but then watching whatever you were

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Speaker 1: trading move the way you thought it would and come

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Speaker 1: back and pay a hire to get it back. But

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Speaker 1: on a log hyperbolic definitely arithmetic hyperbolic chart like bitcoin.

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Speaker 1: When do you get to a normal market where people

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Speaker 1: enjoy those emotions of oops, I was wrong. Nobody feels that, dude,

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Speaker 1: Nobody feels out right now. Everybody who owns bitcoin feels

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Speaker 1: like they have been like they are a genius. There

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Speaker 1: in my mind, they have simply been lucky. Well, we'll see,

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Speaker 1: time shall tell. Can bitcoin? Can bitcoin become a true

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Speaker 1: viable market. Yes, it can do I think it shall. No,

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Speaker 1: I don't then, so I wanted your thoughts on oil.

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Speaker 1: Right now. We have the two events in the last

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Speaker 1: couple of days, the shutdown of a pipeline in Scotland

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Speaker 1: which looks like it was going to be shut down

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Speaker 1: for six weeks and may only be shut down for

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Speaker 1: two or three correct, And then you also have the

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Speaker 1: explosion at the input processing facility outside of Vienna that

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Speaker 1: supplies UH natural gas to UH Italy. What is your

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Speaker 1: thoughts about investing in oil? Well, this morning, for the

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Speaker 1: first time in a quite a period of time, I'm

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Speaker 1: actually going I'm recommending being short of crude oil, and

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Speaker 1: as I call it, I'm only putting on a single unit.

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Speaker 1: I'm just starting the trade. I won't add to it

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Speaker 1: unless it's profitable. But I'm doing that because one the

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Speaker 1: term structure has begun to change a little bit. The

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Speaker 1: front months are losing to the to the back months.

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Speaker 1: The backwardation, as we call it, without becoming too esoteric,

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Speaker 1: is turning somewhat bearish. Chart technicals are turning a little

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Speaker 1: bit barish. Some trend lines are starting to be broken,

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Speaker 1: and the fact that you didn't rally as much as

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Speaker 1: one would have imagined given the pipeline, the forties pipeline

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Speaker 1: from the North Sea into Scotland. UH didn't send crude

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Speaker 1: oil up to and three dollars, send it up for

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Speaker 1: a buck and a half and then quickly gave it back.

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Speaker 1: Tells me that the good news is probably in plus. Finally,

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Speaker 1: there's an awful lot of crude oil out there that

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Speaker 1: has been drilled and has been uncovered that that will

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Speaker 1: be opened up very soon. Anything about fifty seven dollars

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Speaker 1: in w t I is enormously profitable. So this means that,

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Speaker 1: for example, the shale produces, they just turned the on switch.

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Speaker 1: That's basically, they just turn the on switch. They've already

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Speaker 1: drilled many of these wells, they just have kept them capped.

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Speaker 1: Those can come online very very quickly, in a matter

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Speaker 1: of two or three days. What do you see? We

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Speaker 1: make jokes about red wheat, when are we But what

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Speaker 1: do you see in the grains right now? Is there

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Speaker 1: an opportunity there? It's still a bear market, isn't it.

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Speaker 1: We We continue, We've grown a big crop of wheat,

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Speaker 1: and the and the wheat market keeps making new lows.

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Speaker 1: You don't want to buy something that's making new lows.

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Speaker 1: Pros would sell something that makes a new low. The

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Speaker 1: corn market looks like it wants to make new lows.

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Speaker 1: The only market that is turning higher seems to be soybeans.

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Speaker 1: And as I've said in my newsletter for weeks, it's

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Speaker 1: interesting that soybean mean you don't I learned long ago

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Speaker 1: on the border trade. You don't become bullish of soybeans

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Speaker 1: unless it's led by the meal market. And meal has

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Speaker 1: begun to gain upon soy oil, and that's an incipient

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Speaker 1: bullish common circumstance. Finally, and this will really go out

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Speaker 1: of the way. I watched the out market. Gentlemen do

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Speaker 1: not trade oats. Gentlemen watch outs. And the oat market

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Speaker 1: has always been the Canarian the in the coal mine

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Speaker 1: of grains, and and oats have been under pressure. So oats,

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Speaker 1: I've never had this conversation. Oats are hedged by the

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Speaker 1: major food companies. Yeah, sure, the cons of the world. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: the quaker ches. Don't they play speculators like a bunch

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Speaker 1: of buffoons the margin? I mean, aren't these guys just

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Speaker 1: like looking at the speculation and on balance, you you

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Speaker 1: want to take a look at the cftc S figures,

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Speaker 1: and you always you tend on balance, not always, not

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Speaker 1: every time, on balance. If if the hedges are short,

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Speaker 1: you'd want to be short. If the hedges are long,

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Speaker 1: you want to be long. Do you suggest options for

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Speaker 1: the individuals that want to get enough? Actually no, I

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Speaker 1: I don't because the time value of the options seems

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Speaker 1: to deteriorate against it kills you. Kiss. Yeah, do you

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Speaker 1: like that word cytosis in there? As well as skewardness

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Speaker 1: and other groups? Hoping you get there? You want to

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Speaker 1: play in the if you're gonna play play, I think

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Speaker 1: if you're gonna play, you want to play absolutely if

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Speaker 1: you gott if you if you want to take a

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Speaker 1: position in grain, I think you want to take a

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Speaker 1: position in the grain futures themselves. It's a. It's a.

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Speaker 1: It's a very good market. We're gonna get set for

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Speaker 1: the set for the fed UH meeting here Michael mckeys

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Speaker 1: in Washington. He'll join us here in a bit, Dennis

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Speaker 1: Garment and will stand by UH in wax philosophical. Maybe

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Speaker 1: he'll interview Michael McKee about the important press conference today.

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Speaker 1: Mr McKee, of course, always asking a trench They always

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Speaker 1: him call on Mr mckeel late and the press. I

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Speaker 1: don't know why they do that. Well, they get all

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Speaker 1: the silly questions running out of the get to the

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Speaker 1: good question last. Yeah, absolutely, and so they go all

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Speaker 1: Mr key were ending, please the last question to fry

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Speaker 1: the chair. Yeah, and then usually that's about, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: three or four minute answer weeks. Thanks for listening to

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on

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Speaker 1: Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm

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Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tom Keane before the podcast. You can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio