1 00:00:00,320 --> 00:00:05,240 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast pop All Right, 2 00:00:05,280 --> 00:00:13,760 Speaker 1: here we go fifteen, twenty twenty five, thirty thirty five, 3 00:00:13,800 --> 00:00:15,440 Speaker 1: forty forty five, fifty. 4 00:00:15,280 --> 00:00:24,280 Speaker 2: And the Kicks Black Comic Football Stunned. Oh my goodness, 5 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:29,680 Speaker 2: please stumble and bumble the latter, turn a tatter on 6 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,559 Speaker 2: the exode, g the lad. 7 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: Table, off the fil the night. 8 00:00:36,800 --> 00:00:42,000 Speaker 2: My god, it's not the size of the dog in 9 00:00:42,080 --> 00:00:44,240 Speaker 2: the fighting, it's the size of the fight. 10 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:49,839 Speaker 1: Get all, Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast. 11 00:00:50,040 --> 00:00:53,480 Speaker 1: This is the five Deep Dive presented by Draftking Sportsbook. 12 00:00:53,680 --> 00:00:56,120 Speaker 1: I'm Mike Calbury's joined by my Action. We're co hosts Duck. 13 00:00:56,320 --> 00:00:58,360 Speaker 1: And before we get into everything in week eleven in 14 00:00:58,560 --> 00:01:01,720 Speaker 1: the G five universe, we got to sound off real 15 00:01:01,800 --> 00:01:04,360 Speaker 1: quick and beforehands, I had a little something before we 16 00:01:04,440 --> 00:01:07,720 Speaker 1: started recording, I was firing off on defensive coordinators and 17 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:10,840 Speaker 1: offensive coordinators and pace, and it just it didn't fit. 18 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:13,640 Speaker 1: It didn't have a structure, it didn't have a narrative. 19 00:01:13,959 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 1: Whereas Duck sounding off here this week a little midweek 20 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:22,360 Speaker 1: conference USA farewell and iambic Pentameter. Yes you heard that writer. 21 00:01:22,400 --> 00:01:24,200 Speaker 1: At least he's gonna give it his best shot. He's 22 00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 1: got a poem for those out there listening. Why don't 23 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 1: you take it away? Move us with your your lyrics 24 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 1: and your poetry. Here. 25 00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm so thankful to say goodbye to Weekday Cusa. 26 00:01:45,880 --> 00:01:47,560 Speaker 3: I really had no other way to say it other 27 00:01:47,640 --> 00:01:52,120 Speaker 3: than we get to say goodbye to weekday Cusa. No 28 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:55,800 Speaker 3: one is more delighted to see you go away. You 29 00:01:56,000 --> 00:01:59,880 Speaker 3: suckered us in with your tempting appeal Tuesday Wednesday action 30 00:02:00,480 --> 00:02:04,280 Speaker 3: was enough to seal the deal. Kennesaw Liberty, I bid 31 00:02:04,360 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 3: you ado utep, Sam Houston, and even FIU for the 32 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:15,519 Speaker 3: calendar has turned past November the first and Weekday Cusa. 33 00:02:15,960 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 3: You have proven to be the worst with baffling coaching, gaffs, 34 00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:25,639 Speaker 3: missed kicks, drop passes, sketchy refereeing. Man, I want to 35 00:02:25,720 --> 00:02:29,800 Speaker 3: kick their asses. You've solidified your spot at the bottom 36 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 3: of G five and now we're off to the conference 37 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:37,240 Speaker 3: that makes us feel alive. For action is upon us. 38 00:02:38,480 --> 00:02:41,720 Speaker 3: And yes, I've shed a tear. I say goodbye to 39 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:45,519 Speaker 3: you now, Conference USA until the middle of next year. 40 00:02:45,760 --> 00:02:48,600 Speaker 1: He's written more classics than Doctor Seuss. Before we get 41 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,600 Speaker 1: into our bets, let's toss it over to stucky. How 42 00:02:50,680 --> 00:02:52,600 Speaker 1: can he follow up on that? But he's got something 43 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: in the can recorded already stuck you A quick word 44 00:02:55,080 --> 00:02:56,679 Speaker 1: from our sponsor, Draftings. 45 00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 4: The Big Bets on Campus podcast is sponsored by Drafting 46 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 4: Sports and in partnership with DraftKings. BBOC listeners get a 47 00:03:03,720 --> 00:03:08,000 Speaker 4: great offer right now. New customers can bet five dollars 48 00:03:08,160 --> 00:03:11,519 Speaker 4: and get three hundred dollars back in bonus bets if 49 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 4: your bet wins and three months of NBA League Pass. 50 00:03:17,000 --> 00:03:19,639 Speaker 4: Staying on the action and use your bonus bets on 51 00:03:19,800 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 4: DraftKings same game parlays for a shot at an even 52 00:03:23,160 --> 00:03:28,040 Speaker 4: bigger payout. To get started, use promo code BBOC when 53 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:32,680 Speaker 4: signing up with DraftKings. That's code BBOC when signing up 54 00:03:32,840 --> 00:03:36,320 Speaker 4: with DraftKings for three months of NBA League Pass and 55 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:41,200 Speaker 4: three hundred dollars back in bonus bets. If your bet wins, 56 00:03:42,120 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 4: the crown is yours. 57 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:46,200 Speaker 1: Thanks Duck. Now as we get into our best bets 58 00:03:46,200 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: for the week. If you'd like to tail some of 59 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: the bets that here in today's episode, look for the 60 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,520 Speaker 1: quick slip link in the podcast and video descriptions, or 61 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:55,680 Speaker 1: visit actionnetwork dot com, slash bet now, or even better, 62 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,200 Speaker 1: sign up for Action Pro, where you'll get immediate notifications 63 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: when any Action Network expert logs a bet. That's Duck, Stucky, Colin, myself, 64 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:06,160 Speaker 1: everyone on the team, across every single sport that we cover. 65 00:04:06,560 --> 00:04:08,680 Speaker 1: Right now. You can use promo code BBOC twenty when 66 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: signing up for twenty dollars off an annual subscription. So 67 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:13,480 Speaker 1: if you don't have Action Pro yet, the best time 68 00:04:13,520 --> 00:04:16,039 Speaker 1: to do it is right now. Use code BBOC twenty 69 00:04:16,320 --> 00:04:19,240 Speaker 1: to get on board. And with that, it's time to 70 00:04:19,320 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: talk best bets. Here in week eleven, I am still 71 00:04:22,800 --> 00:04:25,360 Speaker 1: mired in a losing streak, so Duck, you have to 72 00:04:25,400 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 1: ticket away here and hopefully get us off to what 73 00:04:28,360 --> 00:04:30,159 Speaker 1: will be a four to oh week eleven. 74 00:04:32,080 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 3: Yeah, let's start off. I'm laying it with Oregon State. 75 00:04:34,480 --> 00:04:36,960 Speaker 3: This is just an absolute spot play to play the 76 00:04:37,000 --> 00:04:40,359 Speaker 3: Beavers off of back to back wins, and the attitude 77 00:04:40,400 --> 00:04:43,240 Speaker 3: of this defense has completely changed. With Rob Akey at 78 00:04:43,279 --> 00:04:45,600 Speaker 3: the helm, these guys are playing with attitude, flying to 79 00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 3: the football. Two games in a row nout allowing less 80 00:04:48,760 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 3: than three hundred yards and less than four yards per 81 00:04:51,720 --> 00:04:54,400 Speaker 3: play combined. The Beaver offense is going to have a 82 00:04:54,440 --> 00:04:57,599 Speaker 3: little fun here. Going up against the Sam Houston State 83 00:04:57,720 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 3: defense that is just the absolute world Conference USA with 84 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,640 Speaker 3: a wide margin. These guys just gave up six hundred 85 00:05:04,640 --> 00:05:08,440 Speaker 3: and forty seven yards against Louisiana Tech eleven yards per play. 86 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:12,560 Speaker 3: It's the worst tackling defense in the country. Sam Houston 87 00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 3: has been shredded by every team they've played up and 88 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:17,840 Speaker 3: down the field. Oregon State's gonna score a bunch of 89 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:19,680 Speaker 3: points here in this one, similar to what they did 90 00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,000 Speaker 3: against Lafayette. A major fun spot for Oregon State and 91 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:25,920 Speaker 3: a major turd spot for Sam Houston. So nineteen and 92 00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 3: a half twenty, I'm laying it with Oregon State. 93 00:05:28,839 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 1: This can be a difficult thing to kind of suss 94 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,960 Speaker 1: out where the worst team in FBS is not one 95 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 1: hundred and thirty six best team in America. That's not 96 00:05:36,040 --> 00:05:38,359 Speaker 1: the way it works. For someone who follows the FCS 97 00:05:38,520 --> 00:05:41,480 Speaker 1: so closely, you know that there's FCS teams that can 98 00:05:41,560 --> 00:05:43,480 Speaker 1: play in the sixties or seventies in some of the 99 00:05:43,560 --> 00:05:47,040 Speaker 1: national rankings, and there's also FBS teams that are barely 100 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:50,280 Speaker 1: top two hundred. How low would you go on Sam Houston. 101 00:05:51,400 --> 00:05:54,880 Speaker 3: Probably fortieth and FCS is about where i'd put them. 102 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:57,120 Speaker 3: So they're down there. I mean they're down there a 103 00:05:57,200 --> 00:06:02,120 Speaker 3: ways with some of the middling Big Sky teams or 104 00:06:02,560 --> 00:06:04,920 Speaker 3: you know, Illinois State. That sort of is where I 105 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 3: power rate them. They're really really down. 106 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:10,080 Speaker 1: Sorry to any Redbird fans out there catching astray, that 107 00:06:10,200 --> 00:06:12,240 Speaker 1: was not my attention when I when I laid that out. 108 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go with my best bet here. 109 00:06:14,320 --> 00:06:16,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with Yukon a home dog catching nine 110 00:06:16,680 --> 00:06:18,720 Speaker 1: and a half. Let's zoom out for a second. Jim 111 00:06:18,760 --> 00:06:21,720 Speaker 1: Moore junior, He's been a fascinating story to me for 112 00:06:21,800 --> 00:06:24,479 Speaker 1: some reason in the coaching carousel. In the last couple 113 00:06:24,480 --> 00:06:26,320 Speaker 1: of years, he's flown under the radar. I don't know 114 00:06:26,360 --> 00:06:28,720 Speaker 1: how much longer that's gonna last. But when you look 115 00:06:28,720 --> 00:06:30,680 Speaker 1: at his career, like Lane Kiffin, he had a famous 116 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:33,200 Speaker 1: dad who was a coach, coached in college, coach in 117 00:06:33,200 --> 00:06:34,960 Speaker 1: the NFL. Gave him a bit of a leg up, 118 00:06:35,200 --> 00:06:37,400 Speaker 1: but he certainly didn't skip any of the steps. You 119 00:06:37,440 --> 00:06:39,560 Speaker 1: know he was after his playing career. He was GA 120 00:06:39,880 --> 00:06:42,720 Speaker 1: at the University of Washington, then quality control job in 121 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:45,080 Speaker 1: the NFL, then a dB coach for a long time, 122 00:06:45,160 --> 00:06:47,560 Speaker 1: than a DC for five years finally gets his first 123 00:06:47,640 --> 00:06:50,280 Speaker 1: NFL head coaching job, takes the Falcons and Mike Vick 124 00:06:50,320 --> 00:06:52,839 Speaker 1: to the NFC title game. Then from there nothing more 125 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,400 Speaker 1: than a five hundred coach. Not abysmal, but that wasn't 126 00:06:55,560 --> 00:06:57,760 Speaker 1: enough of the ownership group there in Atlanta. He gets 127 00:06:57,839 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: canned and then comes his shot at college where he 128 00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:03,400 Speaker 1: starts off hot at UCLA twenty nine and eleven in 129 00:07:03,480 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: his first three years, and then kind of following the 130 00:07:05,640 --> 00:07:08,640 Speaker 1: NFL script, he's mediocre after that seventeen and nineteen and 131 00:07:08,720 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: he gets canned. So this was the job really to say, hey, 132 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,680 Speaker 1: you had UCLA on the verge of being a top 133 00:07:15,760 --> 00:07:18,320 Speaker 1: ten team at the very height of your coaching job 134 00:07:18,360 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: there in Los Angeles. Can you build from nothing and 135 00:07:21,320 --> 00:07:24,320 Speaker 1: show that you deserve a second chance, you know, to 136 00:07:24,400 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: be able to have kind of a renaissance in your career. 137 00:07:27,600 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 1: Before he arrived at Yukon, they were nothing, actually they 138 00:07:30,520 --> 00:07:33,640 Speaker 1: were less than nothing. When you look at like it's 139 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 1: a scene for moneyball. There's good teams, there's bad teams. 140 00:07:35,840 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: There's one hundred feet of shit. And then there was 141 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 1: Yukon football. Because they were four and thirty five in 142 00:07:40,160 --> 00:07:42,760 Speaker 1: their previous thirty nine games before Moore showed up, and 143 00:07:42,880 --> 00:07:45,000 Speaker 1: for some reason, I think people forget that where they 144 00:07:45,080 --> 00:07:47,720 Speaker 1: look at, you know, some of his seasons. I think 145 00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,200 Speaker 1: one he went six and seven. Well that's not very good. 146 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,240 Speaker 1: That's great for Yukon. They are on a recruiting island 147 00:07:53,360 --> 00:07:56,080 Speaker 1: out in New England. There's really no pipeline to get 148 00:07:56,120 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: there in terms of you know, poaching recruits, paying recruits. 149 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 1: It's a basketball school. And then all of a sudden, 150 00:08:02,760 --> 00:08:04,440 Speaker 1: what has he done. He's got them on the verge 151 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:06,680 Speaker 1: of winning nine games again this season, which would be 152 00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:09,520 Speaker 1: the second straight year of that. And also they're undefeated 153 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: in regulation this year. So I think this Yukon team 154 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,240 Speaker 1: and Moore junior is an underrated story. They're five and 155 00:08:15,360 --> 00:08:17,720 Speaker 1: three as a home dog under Morris since he arrived 156 00:08:17,920 --> 00:08:20,840 Speaker 1: with three outright upsets, and they keep it simple. The 157 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 1: Duke defense can stop the run, but they can't stop 158 00:08:23,560 --> 00:08:25,680 Speaker 1: the pass. We all saw it last week against Clemson. 159 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:29,400 Speaker 1: Yukon first in havoc avoidance in the entire country, so 160 00:08:29,440 --> 00:08:31,480 Speaker 1: they always stay ahead of the sticks. They're twenty eighth 161 00:08:31,520 --> 00:08:34,200 Speaker 1: and pass EPA and there's a balance between quality drives 162 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:36,199 Speaker 1: and explosives. They're both in the mid thirties there, so 163 00:08:36,280 --> 00:08:38,040 Speaker 1: they can score quickly or they can march the ball 164 00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: down the field. Finnano is having, let's just say what 165 00:08:40,720 --> 00:08:43,440 Speaker 1: it is at this point, an absurd season. He's approaching 166 00:08:43,559 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 1: seventy percent completion rate, twenty two touchdowns, zero interceptions last 167 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:51,160 Speaker 1: four games, fifteen passing touchdowns. Duke has trouble on the 168 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:53,959 Speaker 1: back end. They were never able to replace Moore, who 169 00:08:54,280 --> 00:08:56,199 Speaker 1: struggled to come back from that ACL injury in the 170 00:08:56,240 --> 00:08:58,920 Speaker 1: bowl game. They've really missed him. Good luck slowing down 171 00:08:58,920 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: Skyler Bell in this game. He's on pace for one 172 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,600 Speaker 1: hundred receptions, thirteen hundred yards, fifteen tds. He's a problem. 173 00:09:04,760 --> 00:09:07,000 Speaker 1: He's going to be an NFL draft pick. The only 174 00:09:07,160 --> 00:09:08,400 Speaker 1: I mean, the other side of this is simple, and 175 00:09:08,400 --> 00:09:10,400 Speaker 1: it's the reason I'm not on the Yukon money line. 176 00:09:10,640 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 1: Ken the Huskies get any stops, I think they can 177 00:09:12,960 --> 00:09:14,920 Speaker 1: offer some resistance if you look at it. I know 178 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: that MENSA has been absolutely cooking lately, but almost every 179 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,280 Speaker 1: single grade from a secondary perspective for Yukon is better 180 00:09:21,400 --> 00:09:23,719 Speaker 1: than Clemson, which is kind of weird to say here 181 00:09:23,760 --> 00:09:25,320 Speaker 1: in the year of our lower A twenty twenty five, 182 00:09:25,520 --> 00:09:27,160 Speaker 1: But I think it's going to be more difficult for 183 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,439 Speaker 1: MENSA to throw the ball downfield than it was last 184 00:09:29,480 --> 00:09:31,839 Speaker 1: week in Death Valley. And speaking of this is a 185 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:35,000 Speaker 1: classic letdown game for Duke. They just beat Clemson, they 186 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:37,640 Speaker 1: got Yukon in a sandwich spot, then Virginia on deck, 187 00:09:37,840 --> 00:09:39,839 Speaker 1: all with a shot to play in the ACC title game. 188 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,120 Speaker 1: If they win out, everything shakes out in their favor. 189 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:44,079 Speaker 1: So I think this is a look past it. I'd 190 00:09:44,120 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 1: love to get ten, but I'm not going to keep 191 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:46,880 Speaker 1: my money on the sidelines, So I'm going to go 192 00:09:46,920 --> 00:09:49,319 Speaker 1: ahead with the Huskies plus nine and a half as 193 00:09:49,360 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 1: a home dog. All I'm going to kick it to 194 00:09:51,000 --> 00:09:53,199 Speaker 1: you for your second best bet here in week eleven, Duck. 195 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:55,280 Speaker 3: Yeah, And I like that Yukon spot too. I Mean, 196 00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:57,520 Speaker 3: it's real hard to imagine Duke is showing up for 197 00:09:57,679 --> 00:10:01,199 Speaker 3: anything more than just middle effort here off that big 198 00:10:01,280 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 3: win and has no bearing on the conference. So I 199 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:05,160 Speaker 3: really like that one, all right. Next one for me 200 00:10:05,280 --> 00:10:08,240 Speaker 3: is Thursday night, South Florida. Team total over forty one 201 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 3: and a half. The home road splits for UTSA are 202 00:10:11,720 --> 00:10:14,559 Speaker 3: staggering this year, and while they did give a spirited 203 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:18,359 Speaker 3: effort against Tulane and they were able to defend the Alamodome. 204 00:10:18,480 --> 00:10:22,199 Speaker 3: I do not see this defense being able to pin 205 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:25,120 Speaker 3: down one of the elite G five offenses that we've 206 00:10:25,160 --> 00:10:28,440 Speaker 3: seen this season. UTSA only has six sacks this year 207 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,440 Speaker 3: in league play. Really weak in the defensive line are 208 00:10:31,480 --> 00:10:33,839 Speaker 3: the Roadrunners one of the worst pass rushes in the 209 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,839 Speaker 3: entire conference. And this is the perfect opponent situationally, in 210 00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 3: matchup scheme wise for South Florida to really put up 211 00:10:40,440 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 3: a monster point total against. UTSA has given up over 212 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:46,400 Speaker 3: one thousand combined yards the last two weeks, over seven 213 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:48,800 Speaker 3: yards of play. They're not going to be able to 214 00:10:48,800 --> 00:10:51,599 Speaker 3: stop the run here, and so then what will USF do. 215 00:10:51,720 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 3: Their offense works best when they're able to gash right 216 00:10:54,320 --> 00:10:57,000 Speaker 3: between the center and the guard Popya for six seven 217 00:10:57,080 --> 00:10:59,320 Speaker 3: yards at a time, and then they run play action 218 00:10:59,480 --> 00:11:01,640 Speaker 3: off of it and they find guys wide open right 219 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,600 Speaker 3: down the middle. That will likely be what we see here. 220 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,079 Speaker 3: There's a chance that Chaz Nimrod is coming back, which 221 00:11:07,080 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 3: will help boost the receiver room for South Florida. And 222 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:12,640 Speaker 3: then another part of the handicap here, there is a major, 223 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:16,839 Speaker 3: major chance that USF is going to find themselves in 224 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 3: tiebreaker scenarios in the conference, and margin of victory is 225 00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:25,080 Speaker 3: going to matter for the computer rankings. Goali Ish has 226 00:11:25,160 --> 00:11:27,360 Speaker 3: never been shy about pouring it on at home, and 227 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 3: I would expect this offense to be absolutely lights out 228 00:11:31,520 --> 00:11:33,560 Speaker 3: this week. I think they'll be close to putting up 229 00:11:33,559 --> 00:11:35,760 Speaker 3: a fifty spot here. So team total is over forty 230 00:11:35,800 --> 00:11:37,640 Speaker 3: one and a half. I like that number. I'm taking 231 00:11:37,679 --> 00:11:37,959 Speaker 3: the over. 232 00:11:38,360 --> 00:11:40,000 Speaker 1: I'm going to throw in my two cents real quick. 233 00:11:40,040 --> 00:11:42,000 Speaker 1: This is out of my two minute drill. I like 234 00:11:42,080 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 1: the road Runners. If they can get to fourteen, I'll 235 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,520 Speaker 1: take it plus thirteen and a half. I mean, you 236 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:48,680 Speaker 1: nailed on all the points. Their defense has been dreadful 237 00:11:48,720 --> 00:11:51,679 Speaker 1: this year, and essentially it's just because you can't have 238 00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:53,840 Speaker 1: it happen every single year in the portal where your 239 00:11:53,880 --> 00:11:56,600 Speaker 1: best defensive player leaves and gets paid to go play 240 00:11:56,640 --> 00:11:59,079 Speaker 1: for a powerful program. Eventually that catches up to you, 241 00:11:59,120 --> 00:12:02,320 Speaker 1: which it has for the road Runners. But offensively they're 242 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: looking unstoppable. I mean McCown played this trick exactly last 243 00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:08,839 Speaker 1: year where he got red hot at the end of 244 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,400 Speaker 1: the year. The difference is this time around Robert Henry 245 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: William Henderson, the third gives them offensive balance, and when 246 00:12:14,520 --> 00:12:16,120 Speaker 1: you look at South Florida, they're one of the worst 247 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:19,199 Speaker 1: tackling teams in the entire country. And if UTSA is 248 00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:22,040 Speaker 1: successful in balancing the run in the past, there's going 249 00:12:22,080 --> 00:12:23,719 Speaker 1: to be a lot of one on one scenarios and 250 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:25,880 Speaker 1: I can be able to stack the box to stop 251 00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,320 Speaker 1: Robert Henry and McCown has been so accurate. I think 252 00:12:28,360 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 1: he completed his first like twenty something passes in the 253 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:33,920 Speaker 1: last game, getting people open in space. I think there's 254 00:12:33,960 --> 00:12:37,320 Speaker 1: a potential for this to be an absolute insane track 255 00:12:37,440 --> 00:12:39,560 Speaker 1: meet of a game that's played in the eighties, if 256 00:12:39,640 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 1: not nineties. So I'm going to take the points and 257 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,400 Speaker 1: hang around. But I also like your South Florida play 258 00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:47,400 Speaker 1: because I can't point to a single thing either metrically 259 00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:50,640 Speaker 1: or having watched multiple UTSA games this year, I have 260 00:12:50,760 --> 00:12:53,440 Speaker 1: no faith in the defense Jess left. Their defensive coordinator 261 00:12:53,520 --> 00:12:55,800 Speaker 1: is somebody that I believe in. He just doesn't have 262 00:12:55,880 --> 00:12:58,560 Speaker 1: the horses and there's nowhere to hide against a South 263 00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:00,679 Speaker 1: Florida offense that's going to spread you out and put 264 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:03,240 Speaker 1: your defenders on island. So I just want to throw 265 00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 1: that out there before I get to my second best bet. 266 00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,640 Speaker 1: All right, let's go to Southern Miss laying four and 267 00:13:08,679 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 1: a half. Let's roll back the tape though for a second. 268 00:13:10,760 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 1: We bang the drum for Southern Miss. Forty to one 269 00:13:13,480 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: to win the Belt, thirty to one to win the Belt, 270 00:13:15,760 --> 00:13:17,520 Speaker 1: twenty five to one to win the Belt. Still a 271 00:13:17,559 --> 00:13:19,679 Speaker 1: good number there. Back in August, you know where they 272 00:13:19,679 --> 00:13:22,800 Speaker 1: are today, plus three ten. They're the second favorite to 273 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:26,000 Speaker 1: win this conference, and with good reason. The offense is 274 00:13:26,080 --> 00:13:28,720 Speaker 1: really playing at a consistent level beause Braxton now has 275 00:13:28,760 --> 00:13:30,920 Speaker 1: a running game. He's getting Pittman back by the way 276 00:13:31,000 --> 00:13:33,239 Speaker 1: in the fold, who is running the ball so efficiently 277 00:13:33,280 --> 00:13:35,240 Speaker 1: before he got injured. Huff says that he's going to 278 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,320 Speaker 1: be carrying the rock on Saturday. That is great news 279 00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:40,600 Speaker 1: for this Eagles offense. This is key because Arkansas State 280 00:13:40,720 --> 00:13:42,679 Speaker 1: is pretty good against the run by at least by 281 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:45,680 Speaker 1: Sun Belt standards, but they're substandard against the pass across 282 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 1: the board, including a really weak pass rush. So if 283 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,559 Speaker 1: you have balance and you make them defend both, you're 284 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,240 Speaker 1: going to be able to move the football. Now, Arkansas State, 285 00:13:53,440 --> 00:13:55,599 Speaker 1: on the other side of things, offensively, they've just not 286 00:13:55,840 --> 00:13:59,600 Speaker 1: been impressive to me in Belt play against ul Monroe 287 00:13:59,640 --> 00:14:03,160 Speaker 1: against South Alabama, Georgia Southern Troy. They averages twenty two 288 00:14:03,240 --> 00:14:05,680 Speaker 1: points in those games. Yes, they got to thirty one 289 00:14:05,720 --> 00:14:08,040 Speaker 1: against Texas State. That's one of the worst defenses in 290 00:14:08,120 --> 00:14:10,240 Speaker 1: the Sun Belt, with twenty one of those points, by 291 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:12,400 Speaker 1: the way, coming in a frantic fourth quarter. So the 292 00:14:12,520 --> 00:14:14,520 Speaker 1: issue is pretty simple. When I look at the Red Wolves, 293 00:14:14,520 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 1: they can't run the ball at all without Cross, you know, 294 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,080 Speaker 1: getting injured earlier in the season. They don't have any 295 00:14:19,160 --> 00:14:21,520 Speaker 1: pop on the ground, So this goes like this, in 296 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: my opinion, if they're one dimensional, you're up against a 297 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 1: USM pass defense that is efficient. I think their offense 298 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:30,240 Speaker 1: will be able to get to twenty eight points. I 299 00:14:30,320 --> 00:14:32,720 Speaker 1: think this is an opportunity to take them down because 300 00:14:32,760 --> 00:14:35,360 Speaker 1: when you look at the metrics for the Eagles, they're 301 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:39,360 Speaker 1: ninth across the board night in these rankings passing success rate, 302 00:14:39,480 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 1: d pass rush and pass EPA. They're also fifteenth in HAVOC, 303 00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:45,880 Speaker 1: So I think this is playing right into their hands. 304 00:14:46,080 --> 00:14:48,800 Speaker 1: And Rainier, by the way, is a quarterback that always 305 00:14:48,880 --> 00:14:52,000 Speaker 1: gives defenders an opportunity to get an interception. He's that 306 00:14:52,120 --> 00:14:54,480 Speaker 1: Oprah meme. You get one, you get one. Everybody gets 307 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:58,160 Speaker 1: an interception. He is seventeen turnover worthy plays this year. 308 00:14:58,520 --> 00:15:00,400 Speaker 1: That's the most in the G five. So I'll go 309 00:15:00,480 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: ahead and lay this. This number has moved down a 310 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 1: little bit. I liked it all the way up to 311 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:05,880 Speaker 1: the edge of a full touchdown lay in six and 312 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 1: a half, But four and a half, I'm gonna go 313 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,120 Speaker 1: ahead and grab it. With the team that I believed 314 00:15:09,160 --> 00:15:11,720 Speaker 1: in long before the season started, the secrets out on them, 315 00:15:11,880 --> 00:15:14,520 Speaker 1: but I don't think the gambling public has caught up. 316 00:15:14,920 --> 00:15:16,800 Speaker 1: All right, Doc, take us into the four minute offense. 317 00:15:16,800 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 1: We got a big one in the American between Memphis 318 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 1: and Tulane. 319 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:22,880 Speaker 2: I got. 320 00:15:33,880 --> 00:15:37,160 Speaker 3: Yeah, And Tulane was just flat out embarrassed last week 321 00:15:37,240 --> 00:15:39,920 Speaker 3: on the road in that hostile Alamo Dome environment, and 322 00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,160 Speaker 3: really they had it coming to them. The Green Wave 323 00:15:42,240 --> 00:15:45,240 Speaker 3: have been so fortunate this season, benefiting from turnoverlook and 324 00:15:45,320 --> 00:15:48,560 Speaker 3: opponent mistakes. I felt like they'd been playing with fire. 325 00:15:48,680 --> 00:15:53,360 Speaker 3: Close wins against South Alabama, ECU and Army were really indicative, 326 00:15:53,440 --> 00:15:55,880 Speaker 3: in my opinion, of a football team that just really 327 00:15:56,040 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 3: is not as good as their record shows. It sounds 328 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:01,280 Speaker 3: like Brendon Lewis is a full go at practice this 329 00:16:01,400 --> 00:16:03,400 Speaker 3: week and he'll be ready for this one. For Memphis. 330 00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:06,040 Speaker 3: He's really gonna be big in the run game, which 331 00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:08,800 Speaker 3: has been really effective this season for the Tigers. Two 332 00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,800 Speaker 3: lane bottom thirty in FBS in defensive rush play success 333 00:16:13,000 --> 00:16:17,600 Speaker 3: rate and EPA per rush surrendered. And I just don't 334 00:16:17,640 --> 00:16:19,840 Speaker 3: think Tulane is gonna be able to move the ball 335 00:16:19,960 --> 00:16:23,800 Speaker 3: here against the Memphis front. Memphis fourth defensive excuse me, 336 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,960 Speaker 3: Memphis is fourth defensively and EPA per rush allowed just 337 00:16:27,080 --> 00:16:29,200 Speaker 3: not gonna be much here for TWU lane on the ground, 338 00:16:29,240 --> 00:16:31,560 Speaker 3: now you're gonna ask Jake Rahetz Laugh to make plays 339 00:16:31,600 --> 00:16:34,000 Speaker 3: with his arm on the road against one of the 340 00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 3: better graded coverage units in this conference. I just don't 341 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 3: think he's that good of a passer. I think rats left. 342 00:16:40,800 --> 00:16:42,440 Speaker 3: You know, he's kind of fun to watch. He runs 343 00:16:42,440 --> 00:16:45,600 Speaker 3: around a little bit back there, but five big time throws, 344 00:16:45,640 --> 00:16:48,440 Speaker 3: twelve turnover worthy plays this season for rets Laugh, and 345 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:50,960 Speaker 3: he just does not connect on the deep shots. When 346 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 3: you look at what they do and when they throw 347 00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,640 Speaker 3: the ball deep, he is just not connecting on those 348 00:16:55,680 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 3: deep shots this season for two lane. The Memphis front 349 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 3: is really good at providing pressure to the opposing quarterbacks, 350 00:17:03,680 --> 00:17:06,000 Speaker 3: even though the sack numbers haven't been there for Memphis. 351 00:17:06,440 --> 00:17:08,720 Speaker 3: I think this defense is able to control the line 352 00:17:08,720 --> 00:17:12,760 Speaker 3: of scrimmage against Tulane, make the wave uncomfortable. They're going 353 00:17:12,800 --> 00:17:15,800 Speaker 3: to force Tulane into passing situations. Two lane's not going 354 00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:17,800 Speaker 3: to line up and run the football, So there's going 355 00:17:17,840 --> 00:17:20,040 Speaker 3: to be a lot put on the arm of Jake 356 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 3: Retz laugh. I think that spells trouble. I think Memphis 357 00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:25,440 Speaker 3: is better in all three phases here, offense, defense, and 358 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,520 Speaker 3: special teams. They have a real opportunity to really take 359 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:32,640 Speaker 3: pole position in the American I think they win this game. 360 00:17:32,680 --> 00:17:34,160 Speaker 3: I laid the six here with the Tigers. 361 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 1: Do you put any stock in this or do you 362 00:17:36,920 --> 00:17:39,600 Speaker 1: potentially go from a play to keeping your money on 363 00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 1: the sideline. This coaching carousel this year is insane. Some 364 00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,080 Speaker 1: role is clearly unless he loses out this year, or 365 00:17:47,160 --> 00:17:49,679 Speaker 1: they fall apart, or there's some kind of vetting process 366 00:17:49,760 --> 00:17:52,760 Speaker 1: that shows a major skeleton his closet, he's getting one 367 00:17:52,800 --> 00:17:55,119 Speaker 1: of these jobs, either one of the big jobs or 368 00:17:55,280 --> 00:17:57,840 Speaker 1: kind of a domino effect where another power forward job 369 00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:01,119 Speaker 1: comes open because somebody hops up. He's going to be 370 00:18:01,280 --> 00:18:04,600 Speaker 1: a lot richer come next year. Does that factor in 371 00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:06,920 Speaker 1: for you at all in terms of we often see 372 00:18:06,920 --> 00:18:08,560 Speaker 1: it in the autopsy of a game where it's like, man, 373 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:10,560 Speaker 1: that team came out flat, and then you know, twenty 374 00:18:10,600 --> 00:18:12,720 Speaker 1: four hours later the coaches out the door. They're not 375 00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:15,400 Speaker 1: prepping for it. You know, they're going through the motions, 376 00:18:15,680 --> 00:18:18,120 Speaker 1: their head is in a different place, all these things 377 00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:19,720 Speaker 1: that we learn after the fact. Do you put that 378 00:18:19,920 --> 00:18:22,560 Speaker 1: in too any of your handicaps? Consider it at all 379 00:18:23,160 --> 00:18:25,360 Speaker 1: with you know, there's so many coaches I just talked 380 00:18:25,400 --> 00:18:28,159 Speaker 1: about Duke Manny Diaz is certainly on the radar for 381 00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,080 Speaker 1: Penn State, but at least in terms of his preparation 382 00:18:31,200 --> 00:18:33,280 Speaker 1: for the Clemser game, didn't impact it at all. So 383 00:18:33,720 --> 00:18:35,720 Speaker 1: just some things to consider. But I wanted to kind 384 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:39,560 Speaker 1: of hear your preparation style and if it ever makes 385 00:18:39,600 --> 00:18:41,119 Speaker 1: it onto your sheet, I. 386 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,880 Speaker 3: Think it would be foolish not to at least fact 387 00:18:43,960 --> 00:18:46,640 Speaker 3: or the fact that his name's being thrown out there, 388 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,600 Speaker 3: that he is potentially being contacted by other administrations. And 389 00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,119 Speaker 3: any time that anybody at any employer is looking for 390 00:18:55,440 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 3: a new job or is approached about possibly changing employers, 391 00:18:59,720 --> 00:19:02,720 Speaker 3: there's some level that it affects you as an employee, 392 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:05,240 Speaker 3: and I'm I just I am led to believe that 393 00:19:05,359 --> 00:19:09,000 Speaker 3: in coaching, there's no difference where you are being contacted 394 00:19:09,040 --> 00:19:11,920 Speaker 3: about trying to possibly go somewhere else, they're gonna talk 395 00:19:12,040 --> 00:19:14,400 Speaker 3: money with you. You're going to get a significant pay raise. 396 00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,879 Speaker 3: It absolutely will affect him. So I don't know necessarily 397 00:19:19,000 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 3: if it's going to be, you know, the end all 398 00:19:21,400 --> 00:19:23,360 Speaker 3: be all as to why they may not play well. 399 00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 3: But we have seen it time and time again with 400 00:19:25,920 --> 00:19:29,000 Speaker 3: coaches who finally get their name kind of the buzz 401 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 3: around them getting jobs, and we absolutely see and affect 402 00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:34,480 Speaker 3: those teams, So I wouldn't be surprised here if that's 403 00:19:34,520 --> 00:19:34,880 Speaker 3: the case. 404 00:19:35,640 --> 00:19:38,400 Speaker 1: It's time now for our G five underdog money line 405 00:19:38,480 --> 00:19:41,680 Speaker 1: parlay presented by DraftKings Great Cole. Last week, Duck on 406 00:19:41,920 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: Coastal your one hundred percent right there switch a quarterback 407 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:46,880 Speaker 1: has made them a live dog basically in every game 408 00:19:46,960 --> 00:19:49,440 Speaker 1: moving forward this season. We'll see how quickly the market 409 00:19:49,520 --> 00:19:52,400 Speaker 1: reacts to that. We could have hit should an underdog 410 00:19:52,480 --> 00:19:55,479 Speaker 1: parlay if air Force have pulled it out losing at 411 00:19:55,560 --> 00:19:57,880 Speaker 1: the buzzer, I got to give credits an army though 412 00:19:58,359 --> 00:20:00,840 Speaker 1: they played like they were an underdog. They were taking 413 00:20:00,880 --> 00:20:04,240 Speaker 1: deep shots, they were doing things on fourth down, being aggressive, 414 00:20:04,480 --> 00:20:07,000 Speaker 1: particularly at the end of that game. A lot of coaches, 415 00:20:07,440 --> 00:20:10,760 Speaker 1: after turning the ball over blowing the lead late, would 416 00:20:10,800 --> 00:20:12,600 Speaker 1: not have turned around and gone for it on fourth 417 00:20:12,880 --> 00:20:16,119 Speaker 1: down again at midfield. But that's why Army has a 418 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,760 Speaker 1: great coaching staff. Talk about you know Monkin, someone who 419 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:21,359 Speaker 1: I'm shocked has not been offered a better job over 420 00:20:21,400 --> 00:20:23,720 Speaker 1: the years. Maybe has, and he just has an affinity 421 00:20:23,800 --> 00:20:25,560 Speaker 1: for West Point and he wants to stay there for 422 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,880 Speaker 1: the rest of his career. That could certainly be the case, 423 00:20:28,359 --> 00:20:30,399 Speaker 1: but they pull it out. They ruin the parlay for us. 424 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,040 Speaker 1: So let's get it started first with your pick. You're hot, 425 00:20:33,680 --> 00:20:34,760 Speaker 1: tell me what you got this week. 426 00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,600 Speaker 3: I really like Tulsa plus one fifty best numbers over 427 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:42,200 Speaker 3: at dk FAU has just shown me nothing that makes 428 00:20:42,280 --> 00:20:45,520 Speaker 3: me believe that they are capable of stopping any of 429 00:20:45,560 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 3: their opponents. And this offense is just so jerky at times. 430 00:20:49,240 --> 00:20:52,679 Speaker 3: It requires fourth down conversions, and they are so heavily 431 00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:56,560 Speaker 3: reliant on Eastern Messer to move the ball. If Messer 432 00:20:56,640 --> 00:20:58,960 Speaker 3: and velt Camp are not connecting, or if they fail 433 00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,200 Speaker 3: on fourth down, they set their opponents up big time 434 00:21:02,320 --> 00:21:06,159 Speaker 3: with short fields and it is just really high variance, 435 00:21:06,359 --> 00:21:10,040 Speaker 3: high risk, high reward. Now that can be real trouble 436 00:21:10,240 --> 00:21:12,600 Speaker 3: in some of these coin flip type of games. Tulsa 437 00:21:12,640 --> 00:21:15,359 Speaker 3: has played pretty good football in recent They hung in 438 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,080 Speaker 3: there with ECU for a while. They took a much 439 00:21:18,160 --> 00:21:21,399 Speaker 3: improved Temple squad to the wire. I really like what 440 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:23,600 Speaker 3: I've seen from Baylor Hayes the last two weeks. Five 441 00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:27,800 Speaker 3: hundred and fifty yards, five touchdowns, zero interceptions. The kicker 442 00:21:27,840 --> 00:21:31,040 Speaker 3: for me is fa u'sed red zone efficiency has been 443 00:21:31,160 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 3: horrific this season. The empty trips and kicking field goals. 444 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:36,600 Speaker 3: That's not going to get it done here against Tulsa 445 00:21:36,840 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 3: and the Golden Hurricane will definitely make you pay. So 446 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 3: I like how this team has matured week to week. 447 00:21:41,680 --> 00:21:43,480 Speaker 3: I think Trey Lamb is starting to get some things 448 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,240 Speaker 3: figured out with this group, and I think they go 449 00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 3: out there and win this game on the field. So 450 00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 3: I'm getting a little bit of extra candy here. I'll 451 00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:51,639 Speaker 3: take it all right. 452 00:21:51,680 --> 00:21:54,160 Speaker 1: For my side of this, I'm going with another true 453 00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 1: coin flip at plus one oh five on the market, 454 00:21:56,400 --> 00:22:00,879 Speaker 1: and that's Jacksonville State up against UTEB. I mean UTEP. 455 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:02,879 Speaker 1: Where is the love in the market coming for this 456 00:22:03,040 --> 00:22:05,359 Speaker 1: UTEP team. They're one three in qs of play, all 457 00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:08,680 Speaker 1: three losses, by the way, by double digits. Yes, Locklear 458 00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,120 Speaker 1: is an upgrade at quarterback, but he's only a real 459 00:22:11,280 --> 00:22:14,000 Speaker 1: difference maker if he's consistently doing it with his legs. 460 00:22:14,040 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 1: He's not accurate enough downfield to pose any real threat there. 461 00:22:17,480 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: And Jacksonville State has done a nice job of containing 462 00:22:20,240 --> 00:22:23,879 Speaker 1: mobile quarterbacks this year, Hunter Watson Ethan Basco both Central 463 00:22:23,880 --> 00:22:26,960 Speaker 1: Florida quarterbacks and the opener. They can contain, they can spy, 464 00:22:27,119 --> 00:22:30,159 Speaker 1: they can limit his improvisational moments. I think, you know 465 00:22:30,240 --> 00:22:32,720 Speaker 1: when the plays break down, and if he's not hitting 466 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,919 Speaker 1: those and getting to let's call it sixty rushing yards, 467 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,879 Speaker 1: I don't really see where it's coming from with this 468 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:40,560 Speaker 1: UTEP offense. And then on the other side, can this 469 00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:43,800 Speaker 1: UTOP defense stop this run game? And there's some things 470 00:22:43,840 --> 00:22:45,800 Speaker 1: that would lead you to believe that they can. They 471 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 1: tackle well, they have a strong stuff rate, they're sixteenth 472 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:50,760 Speaker 1: in the country there. They only have one issue though, 473 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,360 Speaker 1: and it's giving up big plays one hundred and six 474 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,520 Speaker 1: in ground explosives allowed. That's why they lost to Monroe 475 00:22:56,560 --> 00:22:57,960 Speaker 1: they give U two hundred and fifty on the ground 476 00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,320 Speaker 1: in that game, including a forty yard touchdown was to 477 00:23:00,359 --> 00:23:02,399 Speaker 1: mc reynolds and the seventy two yard run to the 478 00:23:02,440 --> 00:23:05,080 Speaker 1: backup running back that blew that game wide open for them. 479 00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:09,440 Speaker 1: Camcook on the other side of this, that's the scariest 480 00:23:09,480 --> 00:23:11,399 Speaker 1: man that you can face in conference to say. He 481 00:23:11,480 --> 00:23:14,040 Speaker 1: leads the nation in rushing. He also leads the nation 482 00:23:14,280 --> 00:23:17,960 Speaker 1: in yards after contact and broken tackles. So in terms 483 00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:19,960 Speaker 1: of their one bugaboo, like if they could put it 484 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: up on the chalkboard, it's like, as long as we 485 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 1: don't have a super explosive guy who breaks a lot 486 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,879 Speaker 1: of tackles and has a lot of breakaway runs, then 487 00:23:26,920 --> 00:23:29,760 Speaker 1: we're safe. Camcook is walking through that door. I'll stick 488 00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 1: with the cocks here. I'll take him out right to win, 489 00:23:31,720 --> 00:23:34,600 Speaker 1: all right. That was our money line parlay presented by DraftKings. 490 00:23:34,680 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 1: Check out the Parlay Express account in the free award 491 00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:39,960 Speaker 1: winning Action Network app where we will be posting the 492 00:23:40,040 --> 00:23:42,320 Speaker 1: G five money line parlay. You also find a bunch 493 00:23:42,359 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 1: of other long shots and parlays in there as well. 494 00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,240 Speaker 1: You can also find a quick slip link in the 495 00:23:47,240 --> 00:23:50,120 Speaker 1: podcast and video descriptions or visit Action Network dot com 496 00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:52,920 Speaker 1: slash bet now to find entail some of the bets 497 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:55,800 Speaker 1: we've discussed thus far. In the episode all right, two 498 00:23:55,800 --> 00:23:58,840 Speaker 1: minute drill time, I will go second. I already gave 499 00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:02,800 Speaker 1: out my thoughts on Roadrunners catching points against South Florida. 500 00:24:03,040 --> 00:24:05,200 Speaker 1: Walk me through your FCS leans here duck. 501 00:24:05,520 --> 00:24:09,240 Speaker 3: Yeah, South Dakota State. Massive G five rivalry between two 502 00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:12,760 Speaker 3: proud FCS programs, USD and South Dakota State. These two 503 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:15,280 Speaker 3: teams do not like each other and the series has 504 00:24:15,359 --> 00:24:20,040 Speaker 3: pretty well been dominated by the Jacks. SDSU humbled, embarrassed, 505 00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:24,040 Speaker 3: ashamed last week after losing to Indiana State as thirty 506 00:24:24,080 --> 00:24:26,160 Speaker 3: one and a half point favorites. It was not good. 507 00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:29,800 Speaker 3: These guys are pissed. Dan Jackson is challenging his team 508 00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:33,560 Speaker 3: this week. I would expect a much more crisp performance, 509 00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:38,080 Speaker 3: much better situational execution. The Coyotes are off an impressive 510 00:24:38,119 --> 00:24:41,639 Speaker 3: win against North Dakota last week, but this team is 511 00:24:41,840 --> 00:24:43,760 Speaker 3: really going to struggle here to run the football, and 512 00:24:43,840 --> 00:24:46,520 Speaker 3: their passing attack is not nearly talented enough to throw 513 00:24:46,600 --> 00:24:49,800 Speaker 3: them out of trouble or to play from behind. USD 514 00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,159 Speaker 3: is much softer in the trenches than we've come to 515 00:24:52,200 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 3: know and love from the yoats. SDSU is going to 516 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,120 Speaker 3: win this game. Anything under a touchdown, we're good there. 517 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:01,760 Speaker 3: Next one Robert for Morris and Wagner. Projected total is 518 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:03,800 Speaker 3: forty four and a half. Both these teams are run 519 00:25:03,920 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 3: heavy and operate at an extremely slow pace. I would 520 00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,240 Speaker 3: expect we see a ton of early down rushing, first 521 00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:14,120 Speaker 3: and second down runs, very very few explosive plays here 522 00:25:14,160 --> 00:25:16,080 Speaker 3: on the ground or through the air from both of 523 00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:19,720 Speaker 3: these offenses, and both of these defenses will have the 524 00:25:19,760 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 3: significant upper hand against the opposition. Anything with a number 525 00:25:24,119 --> 00:25:25,840 Speaker 3: of forty and a half or higher, we're going to 526 00:25:25,880 --> 00:25:29,119 Speaker 3: go to the under. Last one. Jackson State projected spread 527 00:25:29,200 --> 00:25:31,480 Speaker 3: is twenty six and a half. Just an absolute fade 528 00:25:31,520 --> 00:25:34,719 Speaker 3: of Mississippi Valley State, who's given up forty points per 529 00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:37,520 Speaker 3: game in each of their last three against FCS competition. 530 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:41,680 Speaker 3: This secondary is one that is getting torched on the 531 00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:46,520 Speaker 3: frequent and Jackson State quarterback Jacobe and Morgan an absolute 532 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:48,840 Speaker 3: excellent football player at this level, a name to know, 533 00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:50,920 Speaker 3: a guy that's going to throw the ball all over 534 00:25:50,960 --> 00:25:54,040 Speaker 3: the field against the Delta Devils, Jackson State should put 535 00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,200 Speaker 3: up forty five to forty nine points and Mississippi Valley 536 00:25:57,200 --> 00:25:59,720 Speaker 3: will not be able to keep up if we're laying 537 00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:01,840 Speaker 3: any under thirty one. When these lines come out, I'm 538 00:26:01,840 --> 00:26:03,040 Speaker 3: going to hit Jackson State. 539 00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,240 Speaker 1: Time for the rest of my two minutes, drill after 540 00:26:06,359 --> 00:26:09,360 Speaker 1: utsa catchen. Hopefully it lands on fourteen by the time 541 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,880 Speaker 1: you're listening to this, and we go. Georgia Southern app 542 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:15,840 Speaker 1: State over sixty two and a half. Georgia, excuse me, 543 00:26:15,920 --> 00:26:18,399 Speaker 1: Georgia Southern app State sixty two and a half. Georgia 544 00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 1: Southern worst run defense in the Belt, still lousy against 545 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 1: the pass, and they're facing a passing team that goes 546 00:26:24,119 --> 00:26:27,040 Speaker 1: to NASCAR tempo app State. Defensively, on the other side 547 00:26:27,040 --> 00:26:30,200 Speaker 1: of things, they can't stop the run. You know, when 548 00:26:30,240 --> 00:26:32,479 Speaker 1: you look at some of the momentum of these other 549 00:26:32,560 --> 00:26:35,280 Speaker 1: Sun Belt teams, the metrics may say that they're decent 550 00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,440 Speaker 1: against the run. I question that a little bit. I 551 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:38,800 Speaker 1: think more of it has to do with game flow, 552 00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,680 Speaker 1: but they're completely lost in every sense of the word 553 00:26:41,760 --> 00:26:43,520 Speaker 1: on the back end when it comes to pass defense 554 00:26:43,560 --> 00:26:45,440 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifth in coverage one hundred and twenty 555 00:26:45,480 --> 00:26:48,159 Speaker 1: first and aerial explosives allowed, and last week in the 556 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:50,840 Speaker 1: Georgia Southern Arkansas State game. The total as you know, 557 00:26:50,960 --> 00:26:53,560 Speaker 1: duck fifty nine and a half final score thirty four 558 00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 1: to twenty four Red Wolves. That game included an interception 559 00:26:57,359 --> 00:26:59,560 Speaker 1: in the end zone, not one, not two, but three 560 00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:03,560 Speaker 1: field from inside opponents ten yard line, and over eight 561 00:27:03,640 --> 00:27:06,080 Speaker 1: hundred yards of total offense. If that game had gone 562 00:27:06,119 --> 00:27:08,720 Speaker 1: over as it should, the Eagles would be seven to 563 00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 1: one to overs in their games this year. So I 564 00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 1: mean their games are clearing by an average of six 565 00:27:13,680 --> 00:27:16,680 Speaker 1: point eight points per game. That's the best or excuse me, 566 00:27:16,760 --> 00:27:18,840 Speaker 1: the eighth best in the G five this year in 567 00:27:18,960 --> 00:27:21,240 Speaker 1: terms of overs. So I think this one is due. 568 00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:23,200 Speaker 1: I think it's off by about three or four points. 569 00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:25,399 Speaker 1: There's some key numbers if you focus in on that 570 00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:27,960 Speaker 1: with totals that it's going to clear. So I think 571 00:27:28,000 --> 00:27:30,480 Speaker 1: this will be played closer to seventy. All right, let's 572 00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:32,360 Speaker 1: finish it off with a little bit of balance, which 573 00:27:32,440 --> 00:27:36,480 Speaker 1: is an under here between Temple and Army under forty 574 00:27:36,640 --> 00:27:39,159 Speaker 1: six and a half. Listen, Air Force and Navy have 575 00:27:39,280 --> 00:27:42,320 Speaker 1: reimagined what a Service Academy offense can be in terms 576 00:27:42,359 --> 00:27:45,160 Speaker 1: of explosiveness, in terms of run pass balance, in terms 577 00:27:45,160 --> 00:27:48,439 Speaker 1: of formational variety. You know, going to shotgun, going to pistol. 578 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:51,520 Speaker 1: Army is still good old Army when it comes to 579 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:53,959 Speaker 1: the triple option, which I love, and when you look 580 00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,639 Speaker 1: at it, the last five weeks their games have averaged 581 00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,840 Speaker 1: a total of thirty seven points. They come in, they 582 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:03,080 Speaker 1: hit six at the last seven unders. And Temple likes 583 00:28:03,160 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 1: to play slow. It's a perfect dance partner for this 584 00:28:06,240 --> 00:28:09,359 Speaker 1: game to have limited possessions, to have those long drives, 585 00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,359 Speaker 1: some real underporn. Temple one hundred and tenth in plays 586 00:28:12,400 --> 00:28:14,679 Speaker 1: per game, one hundred and eighteenth and seconds between plays. 587 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,919 Speaker 1: Army's offensive explosiveness completely at the window this year eighty seventh, 588 00:28:19,359 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 1: Temple's offense, by the way, looked a little bit broken 589 00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:23,880 Speaker 1: at home against East Carolina. I know we love Casey 590 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,280 Speaker 1: Keeler on this program. He's done an incredible job in 591 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,440 Speaker 1: South Philly this year. Excuse me, North Philly, but at 592 00:28:30,480 --> 00:28:33,600 Speaker 1: this point the offense is stuck in the mud just 593 00:28:33,640 --> 00:28:35,760 Speaker 1: a little bit, and having a game where you could 594 00:28:35,920 --> 00:28:37,880 Speaker 1: have the ball, punt it and not get it back 595 00:28:37,920 --> 00:28:39,920 Speaker 1: for eight or nine minutes is not the recipe to 596 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,960 Speaker 1: start getting into an offensive rhythm. This is also Temple's 597 00:28:42,960 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 1: second look at an option offense this year. Could we 598 00:28:45,680 --> 00:28:48,640 Speaker 1: get an emotional letdown final piece here? Army just beat 599 00:28:48,680 --> 00:28:51,360 Speaker 1: air Force, you know, traveling across the country, they come 600 00:28:51,480 --> 00:28:54,200 Speaker 1: back here. I don't know. I think there's an opportunity 601 00:28:54,280 --> 00:28:56,680 Speaker 1: for there to be at least one scoreless quarter in 602 00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,880 Speaker 1: this game with two teams that are kind of looking 603 00:28:58,960 --> 00:29:01,400 Speaker 1: for momentum to get it started. It's going to be 604 00:29:01,440 --> 00:29:04,880 Speaker 1: a beautiful day at Mikey Stadium on the Hudson River. 605 00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,440 Speaker 1: It's a great game to go seventeen ten, seventeen thirteen. 606 00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,840 Speaker 1: I was surprised to see it in the mid forties. 607 00:29:10,880 --> 00:29:12,960 Speaker 1: I play it down to forty four and a half. 608 00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:15,320 Speaker 1: Any thoughts there on the end, I know you played 609 00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 1: a lot of Temple football this year. Against Navy is 610 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:19,800 Speaker 1: a game they should have won. They gave up a 611 00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:22,000 Speaker 1: lot of points in yardage, but I think that's more 612 00:29:22,000 --> 00:29:25,160 Speaker 1: a testament to Navy's explicitness and veteran quarterback than it 613 00:29:25,280 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 1: is to Temple's inability to potentially step up against a 614 00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:29,080 Speaker 1: triple option offense. 615 00:29:29,880 --> 00:29:31,960 Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think the emotional letdown is real, and 616 00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,120 Speaker 3: I think it's interesting Army coming off playing Air Force. 617 00:29:35,200 --> 00:29:37,640 Speaker 3: There's something to be said about when service academies play 618 00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,920 Speaker 3: each other. I think this is a game Temple can win. 619 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:41,800 Speaker 3: I think Temple can go out there with Evan Simon 620 00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:45,160 Speaker 3: throw it around on that Army secondary, and I think 621 00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:46,880 Speaker 3: Temple is live to win. The game should be a 622 00:29:46,960 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 3: fun game. I think, you know, Georgia Southern app State 623 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,720 Speaker 3: hated rivals from back in the FCS days, two schools 624 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 3: that don't like each other. And we should see a 625 00:29:56,680 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 3: ton of points here as long as that game goes 626 00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,040 Speaker 3: according to plan, and we don't have any of the 627 00:30:01,600 --> 00:30:04,120 Speaker 3: goofy stuff, which we shouldn't have because Arkansas State's not 628 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,480 Speaker 3: playing in it, so we should be according to plan there, 629 00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,840 Speaker 3: and we should have tons of points with Georgia Southern 630 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:10,880 Speaker 3: and Apstein and I like that. 631 00:30:10,960 --> 00:30:13,960 Speaker 1: Over speaking of an emotional letdown, here we are the 632 00:30:14,040 --> 00:30:15,760 Speaker 1: tug of war. We've been doing all seats a long. 633 00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,760 Speaker 1: I'm at your five yard line. I let you pick 634 00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:22,200 Speaker 1: between Bandy and Texas. You take diego away from me. 635 00:30:22,560 --> 00:30:24,800 Speaker 1: But everything was going right. I was cruising. I was 636 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,280 Speaker 1: gonna win this thing and then end up getting a 637 00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:30,440 Speaker 1: push with some backdoor scoring there at the end. Twenty 638 00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:32,760 Speaker 1: of people cash tickets, you know I believe it closed 639 00:30:32,800 --> 00:30:34,360 Speaker 1: at three and a half for some people out there. 640 00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:38,560 Speaker 1: So fantastic for Diego and his backers. Fantastic for you. 641 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,400 Speaker 1: You got second life here. I have this feeling that 642 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,640 Speaker 1: I'm right here on the doorstep and not being able 643 00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:46,920 Speaker 1: to punch it in may haunt me. I shit boy 644 00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:49,400 Speaker 1: Ton hard, harder. But We're going to go to the 645 00:30:49,480 --> 00:30:52,720 Speaker 1: Islands for a team that I loved in the preseason. 646 00:30:53,120 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 1: They've certainly brought me a lot of gambling joy over 647 00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,200 Speaker 1: the years. That's the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. I'm gonna take 648 00:30:58,240 --> 00:31:00,560 Speaker 1: them plus six and a half against Sandy Jego State, 649 00:31:00,760 --> 00:31:02,640 Speaker 1: and I'm going to make my case real quick here. 650 00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 3: I got a. 651 00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:08,040 Speaker 1: Quarterback that I believe in as a home dog. I 652 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:11,960 Speaker 1: like that combination. Micah Alijado has fought through injuries and 653 00:31:12,040 --> 00:31:15,840 Speaker 1: now that he's healthy, he's looked absolutely electric last four games. 654 00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,960 Speaker 1: Get ready for his average three hundred and eighty five 655 00:31:18,080 --> 00:31:20,240 Speaker 1: yards per game through the air with three passing tds 656 00:31:20,240 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: per game. With this receiving core healthy, it's pick your 657 00:31:23,680 --> 00:31:26,640 Speaker 1: poison time and leaving Jackson open, that guy is just 658 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:28,760 Speaker 1: you just throw it up, jump all out. He's going 659 00:31:28,840 --> 00:31:30,680 Speaker 1: to get it, particularly in the end zone. All of 660 00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,360 Speaker 1: a sudden, Alijado is looking like the chosen one that 661 00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,520 Speaker 1: he was built up to be coming into the season. 662 00:31:35,680 --> 00:31:38,840 Speaker 1: They already have Bowl eligibility. Even when they're losing, they're 663 00:31:38,880 --> 00:31:41,600 Speaker 1: going down swinging. So I look at this too. On 664 00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:44,040 Speaker 1: the other side of things, I figure you're going to 665 00:31:44,120 --> 00:31:46,720 Speaker 1: bring all of San Diego State's bona fides on the 666 00:31:46,760 --> 00:31:48,959 Speaker 1: defensive side of the ball. They got the best defense 667 00:31:49,000 --> 00:31:50,960 Speaker 1: in the G five. Well, let's look at some of 668 00:31:51,000 --> 00:31:56,040 Speaker 1: these teams so that they've been playing. Northern Illinois, Colorado State, Nevada, Fresno, 669 00:31:56,120 --> 00:32:00,160 Speaker 1: Wyoming not a murderer's row. PFF offensive ranking for the 670 00:32:00,240 --> 00:32:03,040 Speaker 1: Huskies NIU one hundred and twenty eighth, Colorado State one 671 00:32:03,080 --> 00:32:05,600 Speaker 1: hundred and thirteenth. Then they fire their head coach. Nevada 672 00:32:05,600 --> 00:32:08,280 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty third. Fresno had to start a 673 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,760 Speaker 1: kid in his very first FBS start. Now, granted, I 674 00:32:10,760 --> 00:32:13,160 Speaker 1: think he's pretty good coming up from the FCS ranks, 675 00:32:13,360 --> 00:32:15,720 Speaker 1: but he looks a little bit overwhelmed. And then Wyoming 676 00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,400 Speaker 1: one hundred and twentieth in PFF offensive ranks. So I'm 677 00:32:18,440 --> 00:32:21,160 Speaker 1: gonna pay to see it to see this defense absolutely 678 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 1: shut down the run and shoot offense that Timmy Chang 679 00:32:25,720 --> 00:32:31,240 Speaker 1: has reinstated in its fullness. It's back to being a 680 00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,160 Speaker 1: fun brand of football to watch. I mean for years 681 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,520 Speaker 1: it was like just they didn't have the right pieces 682 00:32:36,880 --> 00:32:39,480 Speaker 1: or at the quarterback work, the offensive line with Swiss cheese, 683 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:42,320 Speaker 1: everything is there. I think it's going to be difficult 684 00:32:42,320 --> 00:32:44,360 Speaker 1: for San Diego State to maintain their level of play 685 00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,120 Speaker 1: on the defensive side of the ball. I think they've overachieved, 686 00:32:47,120 --> 00:32:49,760 Speaker 1: and listen, that's credit to them. You can only play 687 00:32:49,760 --> 00:32:52,160 Speaker 1: who's on your schedule. They've beaten the hell out of 688 00:32:52,240 --> 00:32:54,800 Speaker 1: these teams lately, but I don't think that that's necessarily 689 00:32:54,880 --> 00:32:57,480 Speaker 1: prepared them for what they're going to see in the Pacific. 690 00:32:58,320 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 1: But you're on the Aztecs, So this is your opportunity, 691 00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:03,400 Speaker 1: this is your last stands. You got to bow your neck. 692 00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,200 Speaker 1: You did last week, let's see if you can do 693 00:33:05,280 --> 00:33:06,920 Speaker 1: it again. Yeah. 694 00:33:07,040 --> 00:33:10,600 Speaker 3: And I looked at Hawaii's prowess offensively in recent weeks 695 00:33:10,640 --> 00:33:12,160 Speaker 3: and I kind of looked at at the same way 696 00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:15,040 Speaker 3: you did with San Diego State's defense. What defenses have 697 00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:19,280 Speaker 3: they shredded? Air Force, Utah State, Colorado State, and San 698 00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:22,920 Speaker 3: Jose State are all really really bad Mount West defenses. 699 00:33:23,600 --> 00:33:26,400 Speaker 3: These guys from San Diego State the best defense in 700 00:33:26,480 --> 00:33:30,160 Speaker 3: the conference, the top tackling team, top coverage team, solid 701 00:33:30,200 --> 00:33:32,920 Speaker 3: at stopping the run. They have allowed seven and a 702 00:33:33,000 --> 00:33:35,800 Speaker 3: half points the last six weeks per game. They're just 703 00:33:35,920 --> 00:33:39,160 Speaker 3: nobody's scoring on them. They're forcing turnovers, They're getting to 704 00:33:39,200 --> 00:33:43,600 Speaker 3: the quarterback. Hawaii has struggled at times with protecting Alohado 705 00:33:43,760 --> 00:33:46,880 Speaker 3: and with sacks and negative plays, And if anyone can 706 00:33:47,000 --> 00:33:50,600 Speaker 3: thwart this offense, it's the Aztecs. After playing those four 707 00:33:50,720 --> 00:33:53,960 Speaker 3: sharmansoft defenses, I think Hawaii is really going to be 708 00:33:54,120 --> 00:33:57,880 Speaker 3: up against it. Offensively, Hawaii struggled in recent games stopping 709 00:33:57,920 --> 00:33:59,680 Speaker 3: the run. I think San Diego State will get that 710 00:33:59,720 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 3: ground game going. I think they will outpossess Hawaii. I 711 00:34:04,040 --> 00:34:07,360 Speaker 3: think they will play the field position game like they 712 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 3: have in their last several games this year. And I 713 00:34:10,239 --> 00:34:11,799 Speaker 3: just think that this is going to be a slow 714 00:34:11,880 --> 00:34:15,160 Speaker 3: burning grinder. I think it'll be very similar in nature 715 00:34:15,280 --> 00:34:20,439 Speaker 3: to how Hawaii's game against Fresno State looked. And yeah, 716 00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,239 Speaker 3: I mean San Diego State is the best team in 717 00:34:22,239 --> 00:34:24,160 Speaker 3: the Mount West. They're going to win this league. They're 718 00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,240 Speaker 3: going to win this game, and I'm getting under a touchdown. 719 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:27,520 Speaker 3: I'm going to take the astacs here. 720 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:29,960 Speaker 1: All right, that'll do it for today's episode of the 721 00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:31,960 Speaker 1: Group of Five Deep Dive under the Big Bets on 722 00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:35,400 Speaker 1: Campus banner presented by DraftKings. Thank you so much for 723 00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:37,560 Speaker 1: tuning in. Don't forget to download the free award winning 724 00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:39,799 Speaker 1: action network Gap and leave us a five star rating 725 00:34:39,880 --> 00:34:42,520 Speaker 1: and review wherever you listen. It's been long overdue. I'm 726 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:44,840 Speaker 1: going to go ahead and pull up one of the 727 00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:48,200 Speaker 1: five star reviews. We're going to give out a twenty 728 00:34:48,280 --> 00:34:52,319 Speaker 1: five dollars future. All right, big winner is Marlin's Woman. 729 00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:54,719 Speaker 1: This pod has made me so much better at betting 730 00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,000 Speaker 1: college football. Group of Five is really essential if you're 731 00:34:57,040 --> 00:34:59,680 Speaker 1: serious about making money. The analysis is very clear and 732 00:34:59,680 --> 00:35:02,480 Speaker 1: makes that's very good for people new betting and for 733 00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,360 Speaker 1: anyone who wants to understand it in greater depth. So 734 00:35:05,520 --> 00:35:08,560 Speaker 1: Marlin's Woman, if you're listening, reach out to me over 735 00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:11,080 Speaker 1: on Twitter at East Breeze and I will get you 736 00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:14,160 Speaker 1: hooked up with a free twenty five dollars future. You 737 00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,080 Speaker 1: want to bet on a parlay this weekend, whatever you 738 00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:17,920 Speaker 1: want to do, just want to keep the money in 739 00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:20,719 Speaker 1: the gambling universe happy to help you out there, and 740 00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 1: we're going to keep doing this throughout the entire season, 741 00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,280 Speaker 1: so please keep hitting U up with those five star reviews. 742 00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:26,960 Speaker 1: It helps us so much in terms of our reach. 743 00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,120 Speaker 1: In terms of people scrolling through looking for a new 744 00:35:29,120 --> 00:35:32,120 Speaker 1: sports podcast, they're going to gravitate to those that have 745 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,759 Speaker 1: lots of reviews and lots of five star reviews. Also, 746 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:36,759 Speaker 1: go ahead and remember to tail some of the bets 747 00:35:36,800 --> 00:35:38,880 Speaker 1: that we've talked about in this episode, and you can 748 00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:41,000 Speaker 1: do that by following the quick slip link in the 749 00:35:41,040 --> 00:35:43,239 Speaker 1: episode of description. You can also go to actionnetwork dot 750 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:46,000 Speaker 1: com slash bet now. If you haven't already, please subscribe 751 00:35:46,000 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 1: to our YouTube channel search for BBOC and you'll be 752 00:35:48,719 --> 00:35:51,040 Speaker 1: able to have access to all of our tape shows 753 00:35:51,040 --> 00:35:53,239 Speaker 1: as well as getting reminders for our live show every 754 00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,000 Speaker 1: Saturday at ten thirty Eastern. Thanks for listening to the 755 00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,800 Speaker 1: Big Bets on Campus podcast and best of luck with 756 00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 1: all your bets. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 757 00:36:20,520 --> 00:36:23,280 Speaker 1: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 758 00:36:23,600 --> 00:36:26,239 Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 759 00:36:26,320 --> 00:36:27,080 Speaker 1: hundred Gambler